Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 3594 BREAKING! Democrats FAILING to Take the House Back!!!

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Ep. 3594 BREAKING! Democrats FAILING to Take the House Back!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley joined me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: Are you ready for the bomb shell that's about to shatter the Democrats midterm fantasies?
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: The numbers don't lie, and they are absolutely devastating for the woke left.
• 0:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: While we're witnessing isn't just a political shift, it is the complete collapse of Democrat hopes to retake the House of Representatives, not just for 2026, but for literally the foreseeable future.
• 0:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the data is so shocking.
• 0:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get a leave you speechless.
• 0:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey gang, it's me, Doctor Steve, you're a patron professor here to help you make sense of the madness.
• 0:56
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• 1:05
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• 1:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: The legacy media is beginning to absolutely panic.
• 1:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm talking openly, publicly, panicking.
• 1:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're seeing the numbers, the data.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: And they're starting to realize to their horror.
• 1:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: That things may have indeed already slipped away for the Democrats.
• 1:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Twenty twenty six is going to be a woke left nightmare.
• 1:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with the latest generic ballot polling.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Now this is the RCP average.
• 1:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, that stands for real clear politics polling average.
• 1:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is all the generic ballot.
• 1:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this is all the polling.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The good, the bad, the ugly that asks respondents if they plan to be voting
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  [SPEAKER_00]: all average together.
• 2:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: You take the generic ballot polling average back in October of 2017, a full year before Trump's first midterm elections.
• 2:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: So we're using this by comparison.
• 2:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats were cruising with a 9.2 point lead in the generic ballot.
• 2:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: That massive advantage stayed consistent in the all throughout 2018, ultimately delivering them 40 seats in control of the
• 2:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Then, take a look at October 18th of 2021, so that's a year out from the 2022 midterms when the Democrats would end up losing control of the House to the GOP.
• 2:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: At that same time, a year out, the Democrats fell to a lead of just 2.3%.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, that's key, by the way, because, and we talk a lot about this on this channel.
• 2:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button.
• 2:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats get so much of their national polling leads from concentrated areas like New York, and LA, and Chicago, and Boston, and LA, because they get so much of their support
• 3:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: they've got to have a national polling lead of at least 45% in order to win across the board.
• 3:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because while they're going to certainly get tens of millions of votes, you know, say in the five burrows in New York and in LA and in Chicago, they're not going to get anything like that support in Pennsylvania.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: or Wisconsin, or Michigan, or North Carolina, or Arizona, so they have to be way up nationally in a way that the Republican simply don't have to be because their support is far more regionally spread out.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you see it on the maps, right?
• 3:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Every presidential election, you just see the sea of red with some blue splashes on the coast.
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this is why Democrats can be a head by two to three, two point three percent in the general.
• 3:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, two to three percent in the generic ballot, a year out from an election and still lose.
• 4:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, so going back now to the RCP polling average,
• 4:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Take a look at where we are today.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they were up 9.2 a year before they won the house back in 2018 They were up 2.3 a year before they lost in 2022 Look at where they are now in October a year out from the next midterms in 2026 gang.
• 4:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're up 1.6
• 4:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: one point six.
• 4:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: That is a disaster in the making.
• 4:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: That is an electoral disaster, but the generic ballot disaster gang is just the tip of the iceberg.
• 4:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: The real earthquake comes from voter registration data that shows a massive, I'm talking a seismic shift toward the Republicans.
• 5:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Take a look at the column to your right, the right of the screen.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: If you're listening by way of a 20 million podcast downloads, I'll describe it for you.
• 5:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: In the 28 states that track voter registration by party.
• 5:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans have gained in voter registration a staggering net advantage of over one million voters since last year's election.
• 5:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: We have net gain nearly 1.4 million voters over the Democrats to make it even worse since 2020.
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats have lost over 2 million registered voters while Republicans gained 2.4 million.
• 5:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's a mind blowing 4.6 million voter swing over a registered voter swing over to the GOP.
• 5:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's only grown in 2025.
• 5:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, look at the month of September alone.
• 5:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just last month, Republicans gained nearly 30,000 voters nationally.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: While the Democrats lost over 55,000 people are leaving the Democrats.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They're hemorrhaging voters.
• 6:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's a near 85,000 voter registration swing to the Republicans just last month alone.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's absolutely stunning.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Every single state that tracks voter registration by party,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: even California shows the Republicans crushing the Democrats.
• 6:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, gang, what you have to get here is that voter registration trends are the single most accurate predictor for how people will vote in a future election, so you don't
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the logic here is you don't register for a party only to turn around and vote for the other party.
• 6:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's just not generally how people work.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Our good friend Seth Cashles, one of the single most accurate election modlers out there, it in your perfect prediction record for 2024.
• 6:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: He only uses voter registration models.
• 6:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: And he's like, he's like, I have never seen trends like this before.
• 7:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is this is beyond anything we could have imagined.
• 7:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: And again, it's showing up in the polls.
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: If the Democrats are only up by one in the generic ballot, uh, yeah, they're going to lose by a couple of million votes overall in the midterms.
• 7:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 7:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: But things, if you can believe it, get even worse, we're just scratching the surface here.
• 7:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, butter the popcorn, you're gonna absolutely love this.
• 7:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, U.S. for more, so here it is.
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• 8:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's dive in together.
• 8:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've got two canaries in the coal mine right now.
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: The warning signs are flashing, and would should be otherwise very, very safe Democrat territories.
• 8:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: In Virginia, which started as a commanding lead for Democrat Abigail Spamberger, has collapsed to a virtual dead heat, the Trafalgar group, Paul, should Spamberger leading Republican win some sears by just 2.5.
• 8:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: points well within the margin of error.
• 8:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: And in New Jersey, it's even more shocking.
• 8:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrat Mikey Cheryl is struggling against Republican Jack to the rally.
• 9:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: In Jersey,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrat insiders are openly expressing panic about low enthusiasm among black and Hispanic voters with some party leaders warning that traditional Democrat constituencies may not be turning out for the selection.
• 9:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And by opinion, they're way behind on that one.
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: What they'll find is actually even more shocking.
• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: What's more shocking is that non-white working-class voters, as we have been tracking on this channel for my years now, along with Rich Barris of the People's Planet, People's Pundit, non-white working-class voters, largely Latino, have defected in mass to the GOP like never before, and it's happening in Jersey.
• 9:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's not a matter of them not turning out.
• 9:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a matter of them actually turning out,
• 9:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now make no mistake, no matter how these races turn out, I'm all for Jack, this is my backyard in Jersey.
• 10:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm all for Jack, especially if I'd love to see when Sears pull off an upset.
• 10:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: And definitely I would love to see Jay Jones crushed down in Virginia.
• 10:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Regardless, however, how they turn it, the very fact, I mean, these races should not even be remotely close in an off-year election with a Republican in the White House.
• 10:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: We shouldn't even be having this conversation.
• 10:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the very fact that these two races or nail biders alone is an indicator of just how much Democrats are struggling as a party right now.
• 10:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, in the end, they can pull this off, but they're having to spend more money.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're having to spend more political capital.
• 10:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Obama's coming up to both Jersey and Virginia to campaign.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean,
• 10:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: They can't believe this is happening right now and to otherwise Very very safe blue states and again things just continue to spiral out of control for the Democrats to I'd take take a look at the latest fundraising figures.
• 11:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean look at this Cash on hand for the RNC Republican National Committee
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: 86 million cash on hand for the dmc twelve twelve eighty six million to twelve the jlp is seven x the cash is dnc i mean it's stunning it's stunning now it's you i mean in fairness it's true the president's party almost always has a fun rate is in advantage it's hard to beat the sitting president when it comes to fundraising but seven to one
• 11:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you combine that with the voter registration plunge, the neck and neck contests and the blue states the polling drops.
• 11:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean you put it all together.
• 11:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, oh, and the worse is yet to come.
• 11:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: If everything stayed the same way as it was back in 2022, just like what we've been analyzing right up in the Democrats would conceivably be staring to the abyss.
• 12:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: right they they're at a lower point than they were in October of 2021 right before they went on to lose in 2022 right so i mean that everything just stayed the same between now in 2022 they'd still be in a whole heap of trouble but low and behold the Republicans are
• 12:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans just picked up a brand new seat in North Carolina.
• 12:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Don't know if you heard about this just in the last 24 hours.
• 12:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: North Carolina is redrawing their congressional map along with the five new seats already locked in with Texas and the new seats secured by Missouri.
• 12:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ohio is coming in with two to three Florida.
• 12:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Number three to four Indiana is going to give us one.
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this is all giving the GOP all together a net pickup assuming California's
• 12:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: redraw another five-democrat seats, we're looking at a net pickup of around 7-12 altogether in about 7 if California passes to you a peak.
• 13:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, if that's the case, if the GOP are getting a net pickup of seven with the redistricting, they're at a lock at 2018 in the house.
• 13:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Cook Political Report already has them at a safe 211 GOP seats.
• 13:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: A net pickup of seven gives them automatically without having to flip a single swing seat 2018 and solid red districts, which is exactly what you need for the congressional majority.
• 13:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: The real game changer with the Democrats are really panicking over could come from none other than the Supreme Court in just the next few weeks in Louisiana Versa Calay case just argued last week.
• 13:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've been talking about it The conservative majority appears ready to strike down section to the VRA voting rights act
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if that happens, Republicans could eliminate up to 19 Democrats seats across the South.
• 14:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: And which, of course, means they get to pick up an additional 19.
• 14:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, add that to the net seven.
• 14:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: And we're talking add 26, 25, 26 seats to the two 11.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: They already got locked up according to the cook political poor report.
• 14:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, gang, even the New York Times is admitting it.
• 14:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: If that happens, it's over.
• 14:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's done.
• 14:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: it's done.
• 14:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats will literally never possibly in our lifetimes, never possibly, you can, you can't hyperbally there, but Democrats are not coming back to congressional power anytime soon.
• 14:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: They will have been more or less permanently barred from the house for the foreseeable future until there's an entirely different new political paradigm shift, which we haven't seen in about 100 years since FDR.
• 14:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: What we're witnessing here is the convergence of multiple devastating trends for Democrats.
• 15:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: The generic ballot advantage has completely been evaporated.
• 15:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Voter Registration swung massively toward Republicans all across the country.
• 15:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Traditional Democrats strongholds like Virginia and New Jersey are both in play as we speak.
• 15:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the Supreme Court may hand Republicans the ability to redraw the electoral map at will in such a way that the Democrats will be permanently locked out of power.
• 15:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: The data doesn't lie.
• 15:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: And right now, it's telling the story of an incoming Republican tsunami that will leave Democrats wondering what hit them.
• 15:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the only question isn't whether Republicans will hold the house, it's now by how much to expand the majority.
• 15:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: At this point, right?
• 15:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I've just the numbers don't lie.
• 15:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: The red wave isn't coming.
• 15:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's already here, and Democrats are about to get swept away by forces they never saw.
• 16:06
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• 16:22
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