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Week 14 2025 College Football Picks for Big Early Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's Week fourteen. We're only doing two videos this week.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We're gonna start with the Friday games and then we're
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: going to move into the early Saturday games.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: On this one.
• 0:09
  Speaker 3: Hey, what's up y'all? Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair my favorite
• 0:12
  Speaker 3: thing about the holidays, decking out my whole house. It's
• 0:15
  Speaker 3: not a competition, but if it was, well, I'd win
• 0:17
  Speaker 3: the season with Wayfair outdoor inflatable Santa got it on.
• 0:20
  Speaker 3: Wayfair trees, lights and ornaments, Wayfair posting must haves like
• 0:25
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• 0:29
  Speaker 3: your style, delivered with fast and free shipping. Visit Wayfair
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: dot Com or the Wayfair app to win the season.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: But again, it's not a competition.
• 0:36
  Speaker 4: Wayfair, Every style, every home.
• 0:39
  Speaker 5: Some say it's the look of wonder on the children's faces.
• 0:43
  Speaker 5: Some say it's catching up with old friends, while others
• 0:46
  Speaker 5: say it's family gathering around the table and do you
• 0:50
  Speaker 5: know what, They're right. It's all of this and more
• 0:54
  Speaker 5: that makes Christmas. Along with plenty of Avonmore cream are
• 0:59
  Speaker 5: fresh cream, including seasonal flavors, perfect for the festivities. Don't
• 1:04
  Speaker 5: forget the Aven Moore cream, The cream dot makes.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Christmas Welcome In Winning Cures Everything, it's a college football podcast.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
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  Speaker 1: the different socials, most active on X obviously, and if
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• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Gary at Winning Cures Everything dot Com or honestly, best
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  Speaker 1: way to reach me, let me a message over at
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  Speaker 1: can be a member there five bucks a month, fifty
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  Speaker 1: bucks for the year.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: And all of these.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Spreadsheets, stat sheets, et cetera. I get those put out
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: over there every Sunday or Monday. This time I had
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: them on Sunday, so they were ready for you. But yeah,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: you can reach out to me over there, and I'm
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: ready for conference championship games, playoffs, bowl games, et cetera.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be doing this thing all the way through
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the end of January, and even then we'll start more
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: moving on towards the next season and we'll be talking
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: about all the crazy stuff going on. You get some
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  Speaker 1: bonus podcasts over there in the offseason. You get all
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  Speaker 1: kind of stuff over there, So become a member. Help
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: me out. Five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Let me go on a TV overall record thus far,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: big games on the season. I am fifty nine sixty
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: and one the other games that I do and one
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: thirty one. That gives us an overall against the spread
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: record of one ninety nine, one ninety one and one.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: We will have picked over four hundred games this year
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: and we're trying to go against the spread on every
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: one of them. And it's a lot. But I'm feeling
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: pretty good about the record being around five hundred, considering
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: these are not my favorite games, right, these are not
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: my best bets, these are not whatever, and it's not
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: like I've been great on my best bets. But but yeah,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling pretty good about it. So let's not waste
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: a bunch of time. I got twelve games to hit today.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: We're doing the Friday slate and some of early Saturday,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: and then tomorrow's show.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: We will have the rest of Saturday.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: So let's jump into it. Game number one. We start
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: on Friday, eleven am Central Time, and good gracious, Iowa
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: going to Nebraska. This one on CBS, and of course
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: you see it on your screen here. Iowa is favored
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: by five and a half spread is thirty eight and
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: a half to thirty nine and a half, and so
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: it's gone up a little bit from that thirty eight
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: and a half at some books. So let's take a
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: look at what we got here, and we're gonna try
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: and be quick on some of these. Iowa minus four
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: and a half is the projected stats spread.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: The power Rating has Iowa minus five and a half.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: The last four weeks would have Iowa minus twenty three
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: point three. Nebraska got smoked by Penn State, absolutely demolished
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: by them. And you know, they've only had two games
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: really where they've had a different starting quarterback, mixed returns.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Didn't look so great against Penn State at all. But
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: at UCLA, you know they were able to put up
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: some points there and got a good win. So right
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: now in Nebraska's sitting at seven and four on the season.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: They are three two and one at home against the spread,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Iowa three oh and one against the spread on the
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: road plus ten point four. Nebraska's plus five point four,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: so Iowa plays a little bit better away from home. Surprisingly,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: let's start with Iowa being on offense. They are number
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: eighty six in ppapri Drive at number fifty five in
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: offensive success rate. Terrible throwing the football, but they are
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: really good at running the football, and that is bad
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: for Nebraska because Iowa number thirteen.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: In rush rate.
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  Speaker 1: They run the ball almost sixty percent of the time.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: They are number twenty in rushing success rate. Nebraska's defense
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: number one oh seven, Iowa number ten in offensive lineyards
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Nebraska number one oh eight eight Iowa number ten and
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: stuff rate allowed.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Nebraska number one oh two in stuff rate. So Iowa is.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Going to run the football and I think they're going
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: to be successful. They're number thirty one in points per
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity that's when you get a first down inside
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: the opponent forty. Nebraska's defense is number ninety eight, so
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: they give up a lot of points. They are number
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  Speaker 1: one twenty eight in defensive red zone touchdown rate. Iowa
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: was number thirty one an offensive red zone touchdown rate,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: So when they are down there, most likely they're going
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: to put it in. On the other side of the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: ball Nebraska is And these numbers don't necessarily mean the
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: same thing because they don't have Dylan Rayola. But they're
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: not great at running the football. They're okay, though, they're
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: serviceable number twenty nine in offensive line yards number fourteen,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: and stuff rate well, Iowas defense number thirty eight, number
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: forty six in those metrics, but Nebraska is only number
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: sixty eight in PPA per rush that's predicted points added
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  Speaker 1: per rush. Iowa's defense is number twenty eight. Nebraska number
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: ninety three in yards per rush, Iowa's defense number seventeen.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Can Nebraska get some kind of a passing game going,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally certain, and even then, Iowa's defense is
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: still really good against that. As far as finishing drives,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Nebraska number fifty five and points per scoring opportunity, Iowa
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: was number thirty two. As far as five factors rank,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Nebraska is down at number thirty one in raw five factors,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Iowa is number sixteen. I get the feeling now. We
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: saw this last week. Iowa found a way to come
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: back and win that game against Michigan State, but they
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: played tight. Both of these teams are seven and four.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I think Iowa is certainly going to win the game.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: They seem to.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Always win the game against Nebraska, and if you look
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: at the last four weeks, Iowa playing significantly better lately
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: than Nebraska, which makes all the sense in the world.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Considering Nebraska lost their quarterback, You've got an inexperienced quarterback
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: going up against this Iowa defense. The five and a
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: half feels like a lot, but when you look at
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: how they've been playing as of late, I'm gonna side
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: with Iowa on this one. Give me the Hawkeyes minus
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: four or sorry, minus five and a half. Eleven am
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  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone on ABC. Ole Miss going
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: to Mississippi State, and boy, there is so much stuff
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: going on around this one, right Lane Kiffin, who knows
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: what in the world he's gonna do. We'll see. Is
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: his team focused on this game. I think that's the
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: biggest thing, which is why this number right now is
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss minus seven to seven and a half. Right,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: depends on the book, but there are some sevens out
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  Speaker 1: there total of sixty three and a half. I believe
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: that there are other things going on. It just feels like,
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  Speaker 1: and I don't like to get into a bunch of
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: coaching stuff and whatnot.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: But it feels like.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe there's maybe all this smoke is just kind of
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: a ruse, right Like, it just feels weird that all
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: this is done out in the public.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm maybe I'm crazy. I don't know.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: I tend to believe that he's either not going anywhere
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: and he'll stay at ole Miss, or he's going somewhere
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: that's not LSU or Florida. Like it just it feels crazy. Anyway,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the numbers. My projected stat spread has
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Almoss minus ten point eight four, so almost eleven points.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: My power rating has ole Miss minus seven point seven,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: and then my last four weeks has ole Miss minus
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: almost thirty points, so minus twenty eight point nine to eight.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: And the reason for that, even if Lane Kiffin is leaving,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: even if ole Miss is distracted or whatever, the team
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: is distracted. Ole Miss's special teams is number two. States
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: is number twenty nine, so they're both inside the top thirty.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: But the biggest mismatch in this game is when ole
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Miss is on offense. They can run the ball. They
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: are number twenty five in rushing success rate, number thirty five.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: In PPA per rush.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State's defense is number one twenty eight and number
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: one oh seven in those metrics. Lacey, I think can
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: run rough shot over this bunch. Amad Hardy from Missouri
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: ran for almost three hundred yards on this Mississippi State defense.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I kind of think we got the same situation going here,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: both teams outside the top seventy five. As far as
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: penalties per game turnover margin. Ole Miss better at not
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: giving the ball away. They're number forty three and giveaways
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: per game, but they don't generate turnovers. They are number
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: one sixteen in takeaways per game. Turnover margin for Mississippi
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: State number forty one, but they're number sixty nine and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game, but thirty four in takeaways per game.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So if turnovers play any part in this, I would
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: expect State to be taking over some of those. If
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: you look at State at home, they are five and
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: one against the spread at home. Oll Miss one and
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: two against the spread the road, but they are plus
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: three point eight. Mississippi State is plus four point two
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: the last time that State played at home, though they
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: got demolished by a Georgia team that ole Miss hung
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: with for the entire ballgame. Looking at who can finish drives,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss number eight in points for scoring opportunity, so
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: they know how to finish once they get inside the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: red zone or once they get inside the opponent forty.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Really Missisippi State's defense is number sixty seven there. On
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the other side, when State's on offense, they are number
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: seventeen in points for scoring opportunity. Ole Miss is number
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: sixteen on defense. A lot of bend but don't break
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: stuff going on here. I think seven is too little.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I understand all the distraction talk. I understand all of that,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: which is why people are betting on this. People root
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: for chaos. Typically I do the same thing in this situation, though,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that big of a distraction, and
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I think that Old Miss has a big time advantage
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: with being able to run the football. I think Mississippi
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: State is on fumes. I will take Ole Miss and
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I will take that seven. So give me the Rebels
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: minus seven. Here eleven am Central Time on ESPN. Utah
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: is heading two Kansas for the utes finale. Saved themselves
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: in the playoff race again this past week, and Kansas
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: is still if I'm not mistaken, yes, five and six.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: They are looking for a bowl game. Kansas at home.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I really thought that having this new stadium, all the
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: renovations done, all that kind of stuff would really help
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: them out this year. But they are two and four
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: against the spread at home minus three point six. Utah
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: on the road away from Salt Lake City four and
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: one against the spread plus eleven point five. This team
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: is fantastic, absolutely fantastic. Should have beaten BYU the quarterback
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: was heard, etc. Against Texas Tech. That's not an excuse.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: They got their brains beat in in the second half.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Of that game.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: But uh yeah, Utah is a really good football team.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Number seven in PPA margin. Kansas is number seventy six.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Just wild, wild to think about. Utah is a thirteen
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: and a half point road favorite. Total of fifty nine
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: and a half to sixty and a half depending on
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the book. I have got Utah minus twelve point four
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: to nine, so one point below the expected. My power
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: rating only has Utah minus seven point eight, but my
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: last four weeks Utah minus eighteen point seven. So Utah
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: playing significantly better as of late and overall in the season. Yeah,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: playing much better. Kansas four and six against the spread overall,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Like I said, two and four on the road, they
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: are two and two against the spread. Sorry, away from home,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: they are two and four at home minus three point six.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about offense versus defense. Kansas number thirty in
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity well, Utah's defense is number seventeen.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: The difference here is that Kansas doesn't get down there
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: very often number seventy eight. As far as drives getting
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: a first down inside of the opponent forty, Utah number
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: fifty four in scoring opportunities.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Allowed per game.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: And Kansas might be able to run the football a
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: little bit on Utah, and if they do, it's going
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: to be some explosive runs. Number number forty four in
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness Utah number one twenty nine and rushing explosiveness allowed,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: and Kansas State.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Took advantage of that last week.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I would imagine that Kansas will certainly be able to
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: find a way to do that somewhat in this game.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: As far as throwing the football, I would highly recommend
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: that they not try that a whole lot on this
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Utah defense. But we'll see. We'll see on the other side.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: When Utah has the football, there are number one in
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush. Kansas's defense is number eighty four. They
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: are number eight in passing success rate. Kansas's defense is
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: number seventy three, number thirty nine in PPA per pass
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Kansas's defense number one fifteen. There's some major advantage zero four.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Utah number two in offensive lineyards, Kansas number sixty seven.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: On defense, they are number seven in stuff rate allowed.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Kansas's defense is.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Number forty five.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: There, you saw number two in points per scoring opportunity,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: the Kansas defense number one twenty five. You saw number
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: fourteen in five factors rank Kansas number forty two. And
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: this is another one of those spots where Utah is
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: gonna have to win the game, hope for some chaos
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: to be able to get into the Big twelve title game.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: It's probably not gonna happen. So if you want to
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: be the second team that gets in from the Big twelve,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: or even the third team, you're gonna have to cheer for.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Chaos everywhere else.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: And you gotta look really good here because the win
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: over Kansas State, while it was a win, it was
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: not all that impressive. So you need to win big here.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: This number at thirteen and a half, I mean, that's
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: a crazy high number, but I mean my stats I
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: show a clear advantage with Utah running the football, and
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I think that their defense is going to be able
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: to slow down Kansas. So I think that Utah just
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: kind of lays it on here. I know it's on
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the road. I get that, but this is not exactly
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: a rivalry. And Kansas, I'm sure, is trying to get
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: ready to go to a bowl game, but they've had
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: plenty of opportunities to get to a bowl game, to
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: get to that sixth win, and they haven't done it
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: as of yet. So Utah the significant, significantly better overall team,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: and they've been playing a lot better as of late,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: aside from last week where they give up four thousand
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: rushing yard. But I will take Kansas or I will
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: take Utah here minus thirteen and a half. I think
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: they're just the significantly better football team. Two thirty pm
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ABC still on Friday, Georgia and Georgia
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Tech clean old fashioned hate.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech really late a dud against Pitt last week.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Georgia is a twelve and a half to thirteen point
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: favorite on the book total of fifty nine and a
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: half on this one, and this one will be inside
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Mercedes been Stadium, so I would imagine there's gonna be
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: significantly more Georgia fans, even though they might be in
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Atlanta the next week as well. Obviously, we'll see if
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Auburn can pull the upset on Alabama or Texas upsets
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Either way.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Either way, my stats projected spread twelve and a half.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: My power rating Georgia twelve point nine. The last four
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: weeks Georgia minus thirty two. Georgia has been steamrolling people
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. The defense has improved significantly.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: They are looking really good, really really good. Georgia Tech
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: number fifteen in PPA per pass, number twenty nine in
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush. But Georgia Tech has played the number
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: eighty one current strength of schedule, Georgia the number sixteen
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: at current strength of schedule who Georgia's defense number forty
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: one in PPA allowed for driving, it was significantly worse,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: just like three games ago.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: Four games ago.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: They have gotten way way better, number twenty four in
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: defensive success rate. They're number fourteen against the run, still
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: number fifty six against the pass. So if Georgia Tech
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: is going to attack them, it seems like it would
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: be through the pass, although they don't do it that much,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: less than forty five percent of the time, so that's
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: number ninety five in pass rate, but there are number
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: ten in passing success number ten and passing explosiveness number
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: nine in HAVOC allowed, Georgia still can't get after the quarterback.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: They're number ninety six and HAVOC that would be the
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: way that Georgia Tech would get after him, right Buster
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: Faulkner has, yeah, you know, he's got some tricks up
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: a sleeve for this one. And Georgia Tech has certainly
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: been very lucky with blocked punts, with interceptions at the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: right time, with other coaches making bone headed decisions, all
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. Because their defense is atrocious, number
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: one hundred in PPA allowed, drive, number one oh one
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: in defensive success rate allowed. They're number one oh eight
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed. And it's not that Georgia throws
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: the ball a lot, it's less than forty four percent
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: of the time. But they're number twenty seven in QBR
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: number thirty and PPA per pass Georgia Tech number one
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: oh two and number ninety five in those metrics. Georgia
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: is running the ball a lot more than fifty five
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the time. They are number twenty three in
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate. Georgia Tech's defense number seventy six. When
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: it comes to offensive line yards, Georgia number forty two
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: and Georgia Tech is number ninety. Let's look at who
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: finishes drives. Georgia Tech number sixty two. In points for
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, Georgia is number one hundred. Georgia not great
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: as far as stopping people from scoring once they get
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: down there.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: The issue is can you get down there?
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Because Georgia number thirteen in scoring opportunities allowed per game.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: That is, when the opponent gets.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: A first or a first down inside the forty yard line,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: they just don't.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Allow it very often.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Georgia number six in points for
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Georgia Tech's defense number fifty eight, So you
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: know you look at offensive red zone conversion percentage, Georgia
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: is number two in offensive red zone touchdown rate, Georgia
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Tech's defense number sixty five. On the other side, Georgia Tech,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: they're number seven in offensive red zone conversion percentage, but
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: they're number eighty four in red zone touchdown rate, which
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: would explain why they are number thirteen. In special team deficiency,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Georgia is number one in special teams efficiency, but Georgia's
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: defense number fifty six in red zone touchdown rate allowed.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Five factors rank Georgia's number twenty four, Georgia Tech number
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: thirty five. When you do five factors plus talent, Georgia
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Tech drops to number forty six. Georgia is up to
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: number five, Georgia number two in overall talent rank, Georgia
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Tech number thirty nine. There is a massive difference. I
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: don't think you're going to see a game like we
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: did last year in Athens.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's a.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Lot different this go round. Georgia is clicking at the
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: exact right time. This is not a team that you
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: want to play right now, especially if you're Georgia Tech,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: because last week you lost the opportunity really to go
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: to the a SEC Championship game. You probably lost your
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: shot at the playoff. And now Georgia is just rolling
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: and they're probably looking for a bit of revenge, even
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: though they won that game last year.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I get the.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Feeling that they are mad about the way that thing
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: went and they want to leave no questions this time
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: none again. Last four weeks, Georgia would be favored by
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: thirty two points if you just took the stats from
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: the last four weeks. Georgia Tech is falling off at
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: the wrong time. Georgia is clicking at the right time.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: I will take Georgia minus twelve and a half. Anything
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: under two touchdowns I feel great about. I don't expect
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: us to see a bunch of turnovers from Georgia, so
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I will I will side with the bulldogs twelve and
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  Speaker 1: your picks on these games along with any other game
• 22:56
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• 22:57
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• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Friday, six thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone on
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: NBC the Indiana Hoosiers number two in the country. They
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: travel to Purdue. That's right, rivalry game going on here
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: and right now. Indiana favored by twenty eight and a
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: half with a total of fifty four to fifty four
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: and a half. Indiana dealing with some injuries and whatnot,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: trying to get healed up, all that good stuff as
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: they head into if they win this, the Big Ten
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: title game, and they will be undefeated if they win this.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: Going into that game, they got some bigger fish to
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: fry than just Purdue. Now I understand rivalry games and whatnot,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: but this seems like a whole lot of points. Favored
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: by twenty eight and a half total of fifty three
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: and a half on this Sorry, it's up to fifty
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: four to fifty four and a half. It opened to
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: fifty three and a half, but it's going.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Up a little bit.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Projected stat spread has Indiana minus twenty six point one six.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Indiana by a little less than
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: twenty Over the last four weeks. It would have Indiana
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: by twenty four Purdue this year three and three against
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the spread at home, Indiana two and two against the
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: spread away from home since twenty twenty four. Indiana five
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: and four on the road, and Purdue not great last
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: year obviously they were freaking terrible four and eight against
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: the spread at home since last season. But right now,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: three and three so far this year at home, Purdue
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: is not going to make a Bowl two and it
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: says two and nine. Yeah, it is two and nine. Sorry,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: couldn't do math them ahead there. There's not a single
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: number that you can come up with that would make
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: sense to take Purdue here. Perdue number one, twenty one
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: in PBA margin, Indiana number three, Indiana's number twenty seven,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: and special students efficiency, Purdue is number six.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: Found that interesting When you.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Look at five factors or five factors plus talent, Purdue
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: is number one oh two and raw five factors, but
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: they are number fifty six when you do five factors
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: plus talent, so they start moving up above a bunch
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: of those teams that are just not quite as talented
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: as they are. Indiana number two and five factors rank,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: but they dropped to number seventeen in five factors plus
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: talent because they are only number forty six and overall
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: talent rank, this is still an incredibly and that five
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: factors is.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: Not the end all be all.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, Indiana is an insanely good football team.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: The issue here is you're going into potentially Indianapolis. You
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: just want to get out of here with a win.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: You're on the road, Barry Odom, that bunch has nothing
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: else to play for other than to ruin your season.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: You don't want to get anybody hurt. You gotta play
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: different in a game like this. Indiana's number one in
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: turnover margin. Purdue is number one twenty eight. Explosiveness, Dana
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: number four, Purdue number one twenty six.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: Is that right?
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: You have one to twenty six in net explosiveness. There's
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: there's just not a lot here that you can point
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to Purdue on. But that's the direction that I'm going.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: And it's because as much as Signetti does not take
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: his foot off the gas like this feels like Indiana
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: first half play and then after that rest some guys,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: you know, don't don't get anybody hurt, don't do anything crazy,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: just go out and win the game and get to Indianapolis.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: So that you've got a shot against Ohio State, and yes,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Indiana could absolutely.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Win the Big Ten.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's a much bigger chance to win the
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Big Ten than I think it is to win the
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: National championship. Obviously they would like to do both, but
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: this game is minor. Even though it's a rivalry game,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: This is minor in the grand scheme of things. You
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: got to be smart here. I think signetti is twenty
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: eight and a half is a lot of points in
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Indiana is not their.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Best selves when they're on the road.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: So in this situation, because Perdue, I think will pull
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: out all the tricks and whatnot, and I think Indiana
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: keeps a lot close to the vest because they got
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: a lot more to play for. Purdue plus twenty eight
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: and a half is the way that we are going
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: On this one, six thirty pm Central time Guide time
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: zone on In or sorry ABC. On this one, Texas,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: A and M goes to Austin to take on the Longhorns.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Good gracious.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: A and M favored by two and a half on
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: the road total of fifty one and a half on
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: this and I gotta tell you I'm conflicted in this.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: A and M has found a way to win every
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: single game. That's right, eleven and zero. They are three
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread away from home, Texas only
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: two two to one against the spread at home minus
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: one point two, A and M on the road plus
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: nine point eight. But A and M is five and
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: five against the spread overall this season, Texas is only
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: two and seven. Found that interesting, Texas number three and
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: overall talent rank A and M is number ten. This
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: game means a lot, and not just for playoffs, not
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: just for the SEC whatever, but just in state bragging
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: rights right Texas number fifty six and special teams efficiency
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: an M number eighty one, turnover margin A and M
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: number one oh nine, Texas is number ten in this
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: A and M number sixty nine, and giveaways per game
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Texas number twenty seven and takeaways Texas number seven. And
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game A and M number one sixteen. So
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: A and M has not been living off of turnovers
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: off everybody else. Penalties per game Texas number one thirty four,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: A M number one twenty one, So we could see
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of flags flying in this. Let's start with
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Texas on offense. They cannot run the football like at all.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Number ninety six offensive line yards, number one twenty one
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: in PPA per rush. A and M's defense is number
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: eighty seven in PPA allowed per rush, but they are
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: number fourteen in offensive line yards allowed, so they don't
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: get bullied, they don't get pushed around. They're number eight
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: in rushing success allowed.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: The issue is that there are number one oh four
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness allowed. They allow a lot of explosives.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: They're number eighty five in defensive explosiveness allowed, but Texas
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: is not exactly explosive. Now, they did show some stuff
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: against Arkansas. We'll see if that carries over. But you know,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Texas has been playing a little bit better as of late,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: I would say, aside from the Georgia game. But I
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: don't know if A and M is on the level
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: of Georgia. I know they're undefeated.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: I get that, but.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally certain, not totally certain on this. If
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: you try and pass the football, A and M is
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: pretty good against the past, number eight in passing success allowed.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: They are number forty in QBR allowed. Let's look at
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Texas on offense number one oh five,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: A and M's defense number one oh four and A
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: and M number one thirty in defensive red zone conversion percentage.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: They are number sixty five and defensive red zone touchdown rate.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Texas number sixty four an offensive zone touchdown rate, so
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: they are getting better compared to normal Sark offenses. I
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: would say Texas number fifty and five factors rank, but
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: you tossed in the talent, they are number nine and
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: five factors plus talent. A and M is number eleven
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: in five factors rank and number four in five factors
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: plus talent. So you got two really close teams, and
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: you would think Texas at home on a Friday night,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: Black Friday, they really want this one. A and M
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: on offense not a great passing attack. They are explosive,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: number eleven in passing explosiveness, number sixty five for Texas's defense,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: but A and M number ninety three and passing success
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: rate completion percentage isn't great, but they do find ways
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: to score and they hit really big plays with this.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: If you look at the Texas defense, A and M
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: is not going to be able to run the football
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: to the same level that they typically do. They're number
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: thirty seven in rush rate, so they run the ball
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: almost fifty five.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: Percent of the time.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Texas is number seven in yards allowed per rush, number
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: twenty two in rushing success allowed, number twenty six, and
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness, number ten in offensive line yards allowed. If
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: you're going to score on Texas, you gotta do it
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: a different way. So we're going to see Marcel Reid
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: throw the football some in this one. A and M
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: number twenty five in points per scoring opportunity. The Texas
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: defense is number ninety one in points allowed for scoring opportunity.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: They're number one of in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: but there are number sixteen in scoring opportunities per game,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: so you better take advantage of the ones that you
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: get down there. We'll see, we'll see what happens. I
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: think we are well overdue for some chaos. I don't
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: know what's going to happen here, but I think two
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: and a half might be too much.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: I know that A and M.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: IT shows has been playing better as of late, and
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I think that that Texas game is really weigh or sorry,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: the Georgia game is really weighing on Texas.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: I'm going with the upset.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I think Sark and the boys have got some stuff
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: drawn up here, and it just makes all the sense
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: in the world for A and M to finally lose
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: a game. You don't go from eight to four to
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: completely undefeated, right, Maybe I'm wrong. I mean A and
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: M has been the better football team all season. But
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: you know, number twenty three in current strength of schedule
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: and Texas is number ten in current strength of schedule.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Texas is as goofy as it looks from the beginning
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: of the season. A and M has played a significantly
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: easier conference schedule, and they caught Notre Dame at the
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: right time. Texas had to play Ohio State and Georgia
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: and etcetera, et cetera. I think Texas can get this done,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: so I will go with the Longhorns plus two and
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: a half. Staying on Friday, eight pm Central Time on Fox,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Arizona goes to Arizona State. Arizona right now favored by
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: one to one and a half total of forty eight
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: and a half to forty nine and a half on
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: this one, and Arizona favored in this spot. This is
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: a massive rivalry game, and Arizona has not been good
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: enough to hang in this one, at least well last year.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: We'll say that because Arizona State really really didn't get
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: good until last season.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: But Dillingham.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: They need BYU to lose, and if they win this,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: they're going to the Big twelve title game again. Even
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: with the backup quarterback. I mean, it's wild, even with
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: missing Jordan Tyson for multiple games this year. It's crazy
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: considering their numbers have not been good really all season.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: They're not great on offense, number seventy four in PPA
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: per drive. On offense, they're number one oh three in
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: offensive success rate. They cannot throw the football number one
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: oh five. In passing success they're number eighty six and
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: PPA per pass number ninety five and yards per pass
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: attempt number one oh five and passing success rate number
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: one o one and havoc allowed. Arizona's defense gets after
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: you throw in the football. But luckily for Arizona State,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: the weakness for Arizona's defense is against the run number
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: ninety nine and rushing success rate Arizona State is number
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: fifty five.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: There.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: This is interesting, right, Arizona State number thirty one in
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: yards per rush, Arizona number fifty six. There's a big
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: difference here between the current strength of schedules, right, Arizona
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: State is inside the top forty. Arizona is number sixty three.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: So while no Afia in company have been doing okay,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: that defense has really been the biggest thing. Danny Gonzalez
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: is one a fantastic job revamping that Bearcats defense or
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Wildcats defense, not Bearcats. What the hell am I talking
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: about anyway? My apologies to the Arizona offense. Of course,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: Arizona State number one oh one in points per scoring opportunity.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Arizona's defense is number fifty so as far as finishing drives,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Arizona State obviously not great at it. On the other
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: side of the ball, Arizona's offense number seventy two. In
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity, Arizona State is number fifty three.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Arizona State's defense has been the saving grace all year.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Number forty six PPA allowed per rush, number thirty seven
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per pass. They should be able to slow
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: down this Arizona attack. Turnover margin Arizona number five, Arizona
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: State a number sixty eight.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: We'll see what that ends up looking like.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Both teams special teams are outside the top one ten
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: in efficiency.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: That is insane.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Arizona State number fifty one. And overall talent, Arizona number
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: sixty one. Both of these teams looking for their ninth
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: win of the season. Arizona State at home two three
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread, Arizona on the road two
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread plus three point nine. Arizona
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: State is minus three point eight. Five factors rank when
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: you toss in talent, let's do five factors plus talent
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: on this. Arizona State number forty eight, Arizona number thirty four.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Very interesting, very interesting, Arizona State. There's just been nothing
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: all year that has made you really believe in this
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: football team, and yet they continue to win games. And
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know how the hell they do it, but
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: they are just insanely clutch. I think that's the easiest
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: way to say. They're really really clutch. If you don't
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: have a passing attack that can hit explosives, which Arizona
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: is number number sixty three in passing explosiveness, you're gonna
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: get in trouble. Arizona number sixty three. In havoc allowed,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Arizona State is number ten. They are going to blitz,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: they are going to bring people, and if your quarterback
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: is uncomfortable in that situation, it's gonna be a long day, just.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Is so.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: I think that Arizona could get uncomfortable in that situation.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think Arizona's ready for this. I think Arizona
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: State understands what is at play here, and it's Friday night,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: so they won't know the results of other games and whatnot.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: It's early. They have to win. They're at home.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Even though my numbers say that this line is correct,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: I've got Arizona minus one point three to one and
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread my power rating has Arizona State by
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: point one, and my last four weeks has Arizona minus
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: four point three to nine. I think Jeff Simmson company,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I think they've run the football effectively, and I think
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: that the defense slows down Arizona. I think Arizona State
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: gets the win. So I will certainly take the best
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: number I can get right now is one Arizona State
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: plus one. Here we moved to Saturday, eleven am Central time,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: of course God's time zone. On the SEC network. Clemson
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: goes to Columbia South Carolina. They're going to take on
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: the game Cocks, who are a two and a half
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: point home favorite total of forty six and a half
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: on this one, and it feels like a lot of
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: points for these two teams. Offense not exactly the strong
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: suit here, and you want to talk about a massive
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: strength to schedule difference. South Carolina number four in strength
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: to schedule, Clemson number seventy one right now, and they've
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: not been good against a pretty weak schedule. Now they
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: have played to where they are making a bowl. So
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: that's good. They are there now. They beat Louisville, They
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: got to bowl game. Is what it is there? Three
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread on the road this year,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: South Carolina three and three against the spread at home.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Typically they are an underdog and they play so much
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: better in that role. South Carolina number ninety nine and
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: five factors rank. Clemson is number twenty three in five factors.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Interesting number here, five factors plus talent has South Carolina
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: number thirty three and Clemson thirty two, even though Clemson
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: has more talent. Got to figure out what's going on
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: with my algorithm with that, I'll dive into it.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: Regardless.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: That is not the thing you should be paying attention to.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Which you should be paying attention to is all of
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: the intangibles, all that Clemson number fifteen in penalties per game,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: South Carolina number one twenty one. South Carolina number twenty
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: in turnover margin. They're number eleven in takeaways, Clemson number
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: seventy seven in turnover margin.
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: Both of these.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Teams inside the top forty as far as special teams efficiency.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Both are inside the top twenty as far as overall
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: talent rank. The coaching staffs have not exactly done either
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: of them a lot of favors. I will say South
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Carolina doesn't really do anything well on offense. They have
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: gotten better as far as passing explosiveness, number forty nine
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: in passing explosiveness, and Nick Harbor is a big part
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: of that. Clemson is number eight in passing explosiveness allowed.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: But even still on a down to down basis, South
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Carolina number one thirteen in passing success, number one of
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: four in rushing success. The Clemson defense is pretty decent
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: at all of this. They're number fifty one in PPA
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: allowed for drive at number twenty two in success rate allowed.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: South Carolina number one eighteen in offensive success rate. So
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: it's either explosive play, big play, or they don't move
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: the football. They're number one twenty nine points for scoring opportunity,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Clemson's defense is number fourteen. On the other side, just ridiculous.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: This Clemson offense is supposed to be better. They're not
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: very good at running the football, and especially against the
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: South Carolina defense, you're not gonna be able to run it.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Number seventy four in PPA per rush the Gamecock defense
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: is number four, the game actual number nineteen. In offensive
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: line yards allowed number nine and stuff rate Clemson number
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: fifty five and seventy five.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: In those they run the ball less than.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Forty five percent of the time, so they're going to
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: try and throw it with k club nick.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: They are number fifty in PPA.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Per pass, South Carolina's number seventy five and PPA allowed
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: per pass number forty three. In QBR for Clemson number
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: forty nine and QBR allowed for South Carolina. Passing success rate.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's pretty bad, actually fourteen, but they find a
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: way to stop it. So it is what it is.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Both teams number thirty six and points per scoring opportunity
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's defense thirty six, Clemson's offense number thirty six,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: South Carolina number twelve in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Clemson's offense number seventy eight. The South Carolina offense when
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: they get in the red zone number ninety five in
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. Clemson's defense is number sixty five.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: The difference in strength to schedule, et cetera. Is huge here,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: but Clemson I feel like has been playing better as
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: of late, even though the numbers would not bear that
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: out projected stat spread. A lot of this has to
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: do with opponent adjustment. South Carolina minus one and a
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: half power rating has South Carolina minus two point three
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: last four weeks has South Carolina minus two point nine
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: to two, and yet I still feel like South Carolina
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: shoots themselves in the foot and they find ways to
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: lose games that they should win. This is a game
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: that I feel like they probably should win, and Clemson
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: has been playing better as of late. I think this
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: is a salvager season type of game, and amazingly I
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: trust Clemson more in that spot. So South Carolina being
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: favored by two and a half I think is incorrect
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: even with the difference in strength of schedule, et cetera. Clemson,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: I think once this they want to salvage this season.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: They want to go out on a high note. This
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: will be their seventh win. It looked for a little
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: while like they wouldn't even make a bowl game. I
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: think they get it done. I think they get it done.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: So I will take those two and a half points,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: give me the Clemson Tigers and Dabbo to find a
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  Speaker 1: If you like these sheets, do me a favor and
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  Speaker 1: winning Cures Game number eight, Saturday, eleven am Central Time
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: on the ACC Network. Kentucky is traveling to Louisville, and Man,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals have fallen off in a big, big way
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: in the past few weeks. They are now seven and
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: four on the season. The Wildcats need this game to
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: get to Bowl eligibility. They've already hit the over on
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: the wind total. They are one and three against the
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: spread away from home. Louisville, however, oh and seven against
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: the spread at home this year just bananas to think about.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Jeff bram a company went to SMU last week and
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: I mean they got demolished thirty eight to six. I
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: mean it was it was a joke to say the
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: least projected stat spread. By the way, Louisville is favored
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: by three and a half on this total of forty
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. This is typically the game that
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Mark Stoops and company finds a way to win, even
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: when they haven't been great elsewhere. Again, just like other
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: ACC games or sorry ACC SEC games, Kentucky number seven
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: and current strength to schedule Louisville number fifty one. That's
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: better than what Clemson had played. And yeah, I picked
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Clemson in the last game. But it is what it is.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: There's a huge difference as far as overall talent rank,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: not a massive difference. Kentucky number twenty five, Louislle number
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: thirty three. Louisville can't throw the football, which is good
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: for Kentucky because they can't defend against the pass, but
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Kentucky can defend against the run. Number fifty one in
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards allowed, Louisville number ninety two. This is
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: not the same team without Isaac Brown. We'll see if
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: he plays, We'll see what happens. I don't know what
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: the injury situation is with him. But number twenty five
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: in PPAP rush for Louisville, number forty four for Kentucky.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: This is such an interesting spot because Kentucky has been
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: playing better as of late, and man, you want to
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: talk about the ball just unraveling on you. That's what
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: happened against Vanderbilt. And yet it makes me believe that
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: Kentucky may have been more interested in this game than
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: they were with.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: The Vanderbilt game. Just a guess, Just a guess.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: We'll see. Louisville typically is better on offense, but they
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: are just atrocious passing it. Number ninety two in points
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. Kentucky is number ninety nine and points
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity, and yet we saw in several
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: games where Kentucky was able to keep teams out of
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: the end zone. I think they can do the same
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: against Louisville. Now on the other side of the ball,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Kentucky number forty six in points per scoring opportunity, which
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: is surprising. Louisvill's defense number sixty two. This Louisville defense
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: is legit, but man, when things fell apart, they just
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: absolutely fell apart, didn't they. They're number nineteen in PPA
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: allowed per pass. Kentucky is up to number eighty eight,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: but they were in the hundreds for most of the year.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: They're number fifty four and PPA allowed per rush Kentucky's
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: number eighty four. Kentucky number thirty two and rushing success
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: right well, Louisville number thirteen. So I think you see
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: some evenness here. Kentucky number one eleven and turnover margin
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: they're number one twenty and giveaways per game. Louisville is
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: really good at that number thirty four in takeaways per game.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Both teams inside well inside the top fifty outside the
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: top forty as far as special teams is concerned. So
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: they are right there average, maybe better than average. We'll
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: say both are not great, But okay, I don't know
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: the special teams is going to decide this ballgame. When
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: you look at five factors plus talent five factors rank,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not weighing either one of those on this. I
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: think that Kentucky is in a better situation here. I
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: think Kentucky wants to get to a bowl game. I
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: think this is a tight, tight ball game, which three
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: and a half point spread certainly makes sense. I've got
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Louisville minus two point seven as far as protected stat
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: spread power rating, I've got Kentucky by point five. Last
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: four weeks, I've got Kentucky minus six. Again, Louisville fell
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: apart at the wrong time. I think Kentucky fights like
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: hell in this game. I think they can win it.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: So if it's coin flip and I'm getting more than
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: a field goal, I'll take the Wildcats.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: Give me Kentucky plus three and a half.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: Yes, the rivalry game, eleven am Central Time on Fox.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: This is the Biggot right, Ohio State traveling two and
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: arbor in Ohio State Right, now a ten and a
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: half point favored with a total of forty four and
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: a half. I've got a total of fifty five on
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: this one. Now, why my numbers think that I have
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: no idea? Uh? Projected stat spread has Ohio State minus
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: nine point sixty three. Power rating has Ohio State minus
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: five point six. Now that does include home field advantage.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: In the last four weeks, it has Ohio State minus
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: nine point twenty nine. Michigan only two and three against
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: the spread at home this year, plus one point six
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Away from home, Ohio State is three
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: and one. They are plus three point eight. Now the
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: only game they did not cover was against Purdue, and
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: that's pretty wild really when you think about it. Michigan
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: has won four straight in this series, and I every
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: freaking year I come in and I'm like, Ohio State's
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: gonna be ramped up for this, Ohio State's gonna be ready.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Ohio State is the better team, et cetera, and they
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: have been every single time. But the big issue is
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: that Ohio State has not played and line of scrimmage
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: like this all year. Maybe against Texas in Week one,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: but it's not like they fared extremely well in that game.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Both teams are trying to figure themselves out at that point. Michigan, now,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: you know, not great on defense, number sixty in defensive
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: success rate, but they are number thirty in PPA allowed
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: per drive. On defense, Let's start when Ohio State is
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: on offense, number one in points per scoring opportunity. They
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: have got some injuries at wide receiver, etc. I think
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: those guys are all gonna play, but let's just keep
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: an eye on it. They're not great at running the football.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: That is what Michigan defends best. Michigan teams throw the
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: ball almost fifty five percent of the time on them.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: They're number eighty nine and passing success allowed. They are
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: number sixty one in passing explosiveness, number twenty nine and
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: have it created. Now Ohio State's offense is number five
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: and have it allowed. But Ohio State number two in QBR,
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: number five in yards per attempt, number one in PBA
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: per pass, Michigan is number thirty five, thirty one and
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: forty two in those When Ohio State is trying to
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: run the football, number thirty seven in PBA per rush,
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: Michigan's defense is number twenty nine. Michigan not great at
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: stuff rate, but they are number twenty four in offensive
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: line yards allowed. Ohio State is number twenty six in
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: offensive lineyards. That is not where their bread is buttered.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: On the other side, when Michigan has the football, things
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: have not gone well.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: They've gone well.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Enough, especially running the football. I don't know that you're
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to run it all that much on
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. But again, who has Ohio State played that
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: can really run the football. I don't think anyone as
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: of yet, to be completely honest. Michigan number eleven in
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards, Ohio State number twenty six and offensive
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: line yards allowed. Michigan number two and stuff rate allowed.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Ohio State is number thirty two and stuff rate. So
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Michigan might be able to move the football on the ground.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: And if you can do that, then you can hit
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: some play action passes. Bryce Underwood can get out of
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: the pocket, maybe he makes some incredible plays.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: We'll see.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Ohio State number eighty nine and takeaways per game. They're
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: not great at generating turnovers. That is one of the
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: weaknesses of Michigan. Number fifty six and giveaways per game.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Let's see.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: Let's see what happens there.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Michigan number thirty four in takeaways per game, but Ohio
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: State number four in giveaways. Yeah, okay, not totally certain
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: what to think with that. There are there's a ton
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: of numbers that would lead to Ohio State blowing this
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: game open. But if you just look overall at these
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: two teams, I'm interested in what does Ohio State look
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: like in a game that really matters that they feel
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: like they have to have because they have not been
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: put in that situation yet, right, they have not faced
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: a ton of adversity this year. This is the first
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: taste of it. I don't know if Michigan wins the game.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: This thing opened to eleven and a half, it's down
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: to ten and a half. I would continue to be
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: on that side right now until Ohio State shows me
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: that they can win this game. I'm going to go
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: the opposite direction. And of course, this is the first
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: year that I will have gone. Michigan and Ohio State
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: probably blows this thing wide open, but I'm gonna need
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: them to prove it to me. And all of my
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: numbers agree. Even the last four weeks has it less
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: than ten. So if this thing is over ten, I'll
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: take Michigan plus ten and a half here until Ohio
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: State shows they can actually do it still. On Saturday
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: two thirty pm Central Time on ABC, LSU goes to
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma and Oklahoma right now a ten to ten and
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: a half point home favorite total of thirty eight and
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: a half on this one, very interesting, very interesting spot.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: LSU has not played great under Frank Wilson. This is
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: a team that just cannot do anything on offense, and
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: they're going up against a team that just cannot do
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: anything on offense. I mean, it's this is the Spider
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Man meme if I've ever seen one. So let's talk
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: about numbers. LSU against Western Kentucky. They put up thirteen
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: total points in that game. Michael Van Buren is going
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: to be the quarterback here. I mean, I don't even
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: know where to begin with this. Oklahoma has found ways
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: to win games and they just and it's all defense, right.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: Turnover margins is getting significantly better, but takeaways per game,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: they're still number eighty nine in the country and that
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: even though they've gotten significantly better with it, they are
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: number six. Let's start with Oklahoma on defense. Oklahoma number
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: six and points per scoring opportunity on defense, LSU is
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: number one twelve, So if you get down there, you're
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: probably not gonna score. I mean, LSU number one fifteen
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: in offensive red zone touchdown rate. Oklahoma's defense is number six.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: We saw it with Missouri, like that opening drive. Missouri
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: kept the ball for eight minutes. They were able to
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: run the ball. LSU can't do that. But they were
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: able to run the ball on this Oklahoma defense and
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: after an eight minute drive they got three points.
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: What do you do with that now?
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: At the same time, if LSU doesn't give the ball away,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: they're number forty three in giveaways per game, which is
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: the exact same as Oklahoma. But if they don't give
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: the ball away, and we'll see, we'll see about that,
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: then I don't know that Oklahoma can drive on LSU
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: number seventy eight in scoring opportunities per game, that's when
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: you get a first down inside the opponent forty. They're
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: number let's see number eighty one and rushing success rate
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: number ninety. In passing success rate number ninety and PPA
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: per pass number eighty nine and PPA per rush. LSU's
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: defense number thirty three in defensive success rate number twenty
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: five in PPA per drive allowed. This LSU defense is
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: good enough as well. Oklahoma number fifty eight in points
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, LSU's defense number twenty one there. Oklahoma
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: number eighteen in offensive red zone touchdown rate. The issue is,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: of course, they are number one eleven in red zone
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: appearances per game, so they don't get down there very often.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: When they do, they normally score touchdowns. But LSU number
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: sixteen in defensive red zone touchdow excuse me, defensive red
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: zone appearances per game, number fifty six defensive red zone
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: touchdown rate. Both of these defenses are stingy with the
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: end zone. So when it comes to that, I feel
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: like ten and a half points. And this is Kyle
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Hunter told me this forever ago. If you have a
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: low total that is, you know, low forties or upper thirties,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: and you've got a team giving up double digits, you
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: might as well just go with a dog. They cover
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: it like a sixty something percent rate.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: It's it's ridiculous.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma giving up ten and a half here. I know
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: that my numbers say the opposite. Oklahoma minus almost thirteen
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: for projected stats, spread power rating Oklahoma minus eleven. Last
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: four weeks, Oklahoma minus twenty. LSU was seven and four.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: They're trying to figure out a way to salvage this season.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma has the pressure of the playoff up against them.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: I still think Oklahoma wins the game. I think this
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: is a tighter ball game. The Missouri game should have
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: been a closer game, really should have. No LSU can't
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: run the football, but I could absolutely see them finding
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: a way to generate some kind of a rushing attack
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: with Michael van Buren. I don't think they cared at
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: all about the Western Kentucky game. I think they can
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: hang here. I think this is going to be super
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: low scoring. You could see a twenty.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: To ten game.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: You could see a twenty well maybe not twenty four
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: to seventeen, but you could see something along the lines
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: of twenty three because Tate Sandel is.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: Going to gick field goals. He absolutely is.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, Oklahoma number sixteen and special Tem's efficiency ridiculous.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: But you're going to see some field goals out of Oklahoma,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: and in that instance, maybe we're looking at twenty three
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: to fourteen, something along those lines twenty three thirteen. Either
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: one of those gets me a cover. I'll take LSU.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: Give me the Tigers plus the ten and a half
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: two thirty pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ABC,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt heading over to Knoxville. Oh boy, the Vanderbilt Common
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: Awards against the Tennessee Volunteers. And what an incredible, incredible
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: game we got going on here. Tennessee favored by two
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: and a half at home total of sixty four and
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: a half on this one. This one's on ESPN power
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: rating has Tennessee by two point three. The projected stat
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: spread has Tennessee by two point three six the last
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: four weeks as Vanderbilt favored by three point three five.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: And yes that does include home field advantage total of
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: sixty four and a half on this I've got sixty nine,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: but sixty nine point six nice, right, dudes, I love
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: saying that whenever there's a sixty nine involved. Okay, I'm
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: so old that I make fun of the trendy shit now.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: Anyway. Anyway, continuing on.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Vandy number fifteen in PPA margin Tennessee number thirteen, Vandy's
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: defense is gassed, they are injured, they are whipped, and
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: they are terrible against the pass. That's not a good
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: match up here number one twelve and PPA allowed for
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: pass number ninety six in QBR allowed, number ninety two
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed, Tennessee is number seventeen, number fifteen,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: and number twenty.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: In those metrics.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Joey Aguilar will have opportunities in this game, absolutely, And
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: on top of that, Tennessee is probably going to be
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: able to run the their number eleven and rushing success rate.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: Vandy is number thirty seven offensive line yards, Tennessee is
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: number fifty, Vandy number forty two. But Tennessee is number
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: nine and stuff rate allowed and Vandy is number forty
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: two and stuff rate. So Tennessee, I think, is going
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: to be able to score here. They're number ten in
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Vandy is number seventy two in
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: points allowed per scoring opportunity. That's a first down inside
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: of the forty in case you've forgotten especial teams efficiency.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: By the way, Vandy number four, Tennessee number thirty three.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: Interesting numbers, of course, Vandy's offense number two in PPA
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: Prier Pass, number seven in PP April Rush.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: There are number four in.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Points per scoring opportunity, Tennessee's defense number one oh five.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a lot of points,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of points. These are two teams that somehow,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: some way, this thing is gonna end up coming down
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: to the wire. Tennessee always finds a way to beat
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: this Vanderbilt team. Now, granted, this is the best Vanderbilt
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: team that I've ever seen in my lifetime. This is
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: better than the James Franklin teams. This is you know, etcetera.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: The offensive line is really really good running the football.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: Offensive line yards number thirty five, Tennessee's defense number thirty six,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: rushing success number thirty five at Tennessee's defense number one
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: oh five, even though they're number twenty seven in yards
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: allowed per rush, Vandy number twelve in yards per rush,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: and diego if you make him sit in the pocket
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: and throw, or you you, you know, get some kind
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: of pressure on him and make him throw the football.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: He's not great, even though the numbers would tell you otherwise.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: But Tennessee number fifteen in havoc. You know, I know,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: Vandy's number twenty three and havoc allowed. But I mean
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: that could certainly be interesting, could certainly be interesting. Vandy
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: number fourteen and giveaways per game. Tennessee number twenty seven
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: and takeaways. So that's going to be a struggle. Tennessee
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: number eighty one and giveaways per game. Vandy only number
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: sixty one takeaways. So they're not great at generating turnovers.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: Vandy better at finishing drives. But eh, I still I
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: don't feel great about them going on the road here.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: They are two to one and one against the spread
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: away from home this year Tennessee two and four against
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: the spread at home.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: Diego as a dog is always fantastic, and.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: This is the kind of this is the kind of
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: team that Tennessee just would have nightmares about.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Tough one to figure out, very very tough. Diego as
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: a dog, like, I'm gonna have to go that way.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: And I know they're playing in Knoxville, and I feel
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: like I should be taking Tennessee because this is kind
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: of like the Kentucky versus Tennessee thing where Kentucky always
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: keeps it close against everybody, but Tennessee. Vanderbilt never beats Tennessee.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: And yet this feels like a Diego game. I'm expecting chaos.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: I think Tennessee's gonna score. I think Vanderbilt is gonna
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: score a lot. I think it could get crazy. And
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: if it gets crazy. You got basically a Johnny Football
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: replicuy out there. Yeah, give me Diego Diego plus two
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: and a half in this one.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: All right, let's recap what we got.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: I've got individual videos that are gonna be out later,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: but I'm going to tell you my weeknight game picks.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: Taking Bowling Green minus the points minus sixteen and a
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: half is what I took that I had to record
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: it earlier. You can't get a fourteen and a half
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: out there now, if I'm not mistaken. I took Eastern
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: Michigan plus six and a half against Western Michigan, and
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: I took Memphis minus five and a half against Navy.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: So that's your Tuesday and Thursday games. Now, let's recap this.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: I started off with a lot of favorites, ended with
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: all dogs. Feels like a funky week. Let's see what happens.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: Iowa minus five and a half, Ole Miss minus seven,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Utah minus thirteen and a half, Georgia minus twelve and
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: a half, Purdue plus twenty eight and a half, Texas
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half, Arizona State plus one, Clemson
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half, Kentucky plus three and a half,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Michigan plus ten and a half, LSU plus ten and
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: a half, and then Vanderbilt plus two and a half.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: Good gracious, all right, make sure you are subscribed to
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: the channel. We're gonna be covering every Bowl game, every
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: playoff game, et cetera. On this channel. We talk about
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: the games. I'm not that worried about coaching searches and
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: blah blah blah blah. The thing that got to all
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: of this, that led us down this path of talking,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: you know, talking head season all that kind of mess,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: was always the games. I don't care about the playoff,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: I don't care about whatever. Whatever cool matchups we get cool,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about them. We'll talk about it against the spread.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: In that sense, I'm excited about all of it. We
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: got a fun rest of the year going and it's
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: still you know, around Thanksgiving. Oh, by the way, I
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: hope you all have a happy Thanksgiving this week. I'll
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: tell you that on the Tuesday show.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm excited about all of it. All right.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: With that said, don't forget buy ma cooffee dot com
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• 1:07:30
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• 1:07:33
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• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: at Buy May Coffee or just email Gary at Winning
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Curesverything dot com. With that said, take care of yourself,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: take care of each other. God bless college football and
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.
• 1:07:51
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