Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Deciphering The “Trump Doctrine” + America Is A “Reluctant” Nation Of Immigrants

Transcript

Chuck’s Commentary - Deciphering The “Trump Doctrine” + America Is A “Reluctant” Nation Of Immigrants · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about, especially if
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  Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. Hello, they're in Happy early
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: new year to you. I am coming to you on Monday,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: December twenty ninth. Full disclosure and recording on Sunday, December
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: twenty eighth. I always want to put those timestamps out
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: there just to give a little context and perspective from
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: where where I am speaking. From today's episode, I've got
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: a little bit on sort of what's happening. You know, currently,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the US military is in the middle of a couple
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: of different military campaigns, and I want to talk about that.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: What's happening in Nigeria, what's happening in Venezuela, and a
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  Speaker 1: little bit of sort of how this fits into the
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  Speaker 1: larger picture of America's role in the world and the whatever,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: and sort of the Trump doctrine, what does it mean anymore?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Is there a doctrine beyond the word transaction. I'll get
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: to that in a minute. I kind of want to
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: answer a question that I kept getting from friends and
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: family over the last few days, and that was an
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: interpretation of the president's truth Social feed, which many people
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: don't see on truth Social but see it perhaps on
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: X or they see it, you know, repost it on Instagram.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it is interesting how this works now. And
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: of course you've heard me get into the mistake collective
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: life the world made in his attempt to try to
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: deep platform Donald Trump after January sixth. By the way,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: my what If episode is coming later this week and
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: early next week. You're gonna get a couple of my
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: what ifs, including what if Donald Trump had won the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty election. But before I don't want to give
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: away too much of the store on that. But ever
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  Speaker 1: since right, Truth's Social been his primary way to communicate,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: and people on X repost it, people on Instagram, repost
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: it gets reposted on TikTok, all the other social media platforms,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: and being the president of the United States, you know,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I do think there are things that don't get reposted
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: that if people saw them more intently, they would be
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: even more troubled by the psyche of this president. But
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I got kept getting a question about one specific thing
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: he tweeted or truthed, however you want to call it.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: And that is when he was tweeting about, like just
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: his anger over Epstein, which clearly anything that anything that
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: makes him look bad he gets angry about. And you know,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: sort of the grievance comes out, the victimization, and you know,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: let's make other people pay the price before he has
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: to pay the price. Right, Let's called for any and
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: said this, and it was something like, this may be
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: your last merry Christmas, you know. And I had a
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: lot of people go, what does he mean by that?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: You know, seeing it as a threat, seeing it as
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  Speaker 1: what is it? And you know, look, I will fully
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: confess that I ignore most of his you know, I see them.
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  Speaker 1: I ignore most of them because it really I don't
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  Speaker 1: believe he means anything. This is to me, I think
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: about the time period with which we get most of
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: these we get them after ten o'clock at night, sometimes
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: at three or four in the morning East Coast time,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: you know, and I think we all think about the
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  Speaker 1: person in your life that you notice is on social
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: media a lot at odd hours. These are people that
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: have some form of anxiety. Perhaps they're super lonely, maybe
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: things are going well at home. And that's what I
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: always come back to when you have the president doing
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: this on Christmas Day, on Christmas Eve night, going all
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: through this, and you're asking yourself, oh my god, what
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: is wrong with this man? And I look at it
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  Speaker 1: as a this is a cry for help. This guy
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: is lonely. He really doesn't have anybody he's close with.
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  Speaker 1: It is I know this will come across sounding like
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: a hater, but you know he doesn't. He is. He
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  Speaker 1: is close with his kids because he's supposed to be.
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  Speaker 1: But if you know, if you've done reporting about his
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: actual personal relationships with his kids, you will know they're
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: not great. There isn't. It is a one way relationship,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: and that's been the problem. All of his relationships are
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  Speaker 1: one way. He uses people, he discards them, which may
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: explain why you never hear things like former college roommate
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: of Donald Trump stopped by mar A Lago to hang
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  Speaker 1: out with him. You know, a friend that he grew
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  Speaker 1: up with has been you know, show it doesn't happen.
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  Speaker 1: There are no old friends. He has old acquaintances that
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  Speaker 1: he discards or uses whenever he deems necessary. Right, Jeffrey
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  Speaker 1: Epstein is probably the best version of this. There was
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  Speaker 1: somebody he was quite close to, and then he drops
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  Speaker 1: him like a rock when he starts. And this is
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  Speaker 1: what he does when any He is not going to
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  Speaker 1: be a friend when you're in trouble. He expects you
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  Speaker 1: to be a friend though, when he's in trouble. And
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  Speaker 1: I think it explains why that on a day like
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  Speaker 1: Christmas Day, when most of us the last thing we're
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  Speaker 1: going to be doing is behaving lonely on the internet,
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  Speaker 1: he does. And it is most people ignore it, Most
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  Speaker 1: people don't see it. I do view it as some
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  Speaker 1: sort of, you know, personal cry for help, which is
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  Speaker 1: why I very much think that his is so social
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  Speaker 1: issues really do are a part of sort of the
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  Speaker 1: lack of character that he has to be leader of
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  Speaker 1: the free world. But that's not where I want to
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  Speaker 1: focus that conversation, because what I really want to there
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  Speaker 1: is something else that we learned via his feed all
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: through the Christmas sort of that thirty six hour period
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  Speaker 1: of a little bit before Christmas Day and a little
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  Speaker 1: bit of after Christmas Day, and that is sort of
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  Speaker 1: the Trump doctrine was on full display. Right If you're
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  Speaker 1: looking for a consistent moral compass in American form policy
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  Speaker 1: right now, you're not just looking in the wrong place.
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  Speaker 1: You're looking at a map that's been rewritten by a sharpie.
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  Speaker 1: And if you want to understand what I mean by that,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: don't start with this national security strategy, which I've already
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: explained in detail a few episodes ago. Don't start with
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  Speaker 1: a Pentagon brief. Instead, you have to start with the
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  Speaker 1: truth social feed of Donald Trump's on Christmas Day, because
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  Speaker 1: over that thirty six hours stretch Christmas Eve Christmas Day
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  Speaker 1: in the morning effort, you actually could see the entire
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  Speaker 1: Trump second term worldview play out in real time. There
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: were holiday greetings, there were religious proclamations, there were threats,
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  Speaker 1: there were missile strikes, there were deportation talks, ominous warnings
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  Speaker 1: that sounded more like a mob boss than a head
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  Speaker 1: of state. And it wasn't chaos. It wasn't doctrine. It
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  Speaker 1: was just simply doctrine. It was not chaos. So let's
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  Speaker 1: walk through it all. So in the twenty four hours
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  Speaker 1: before Christmas, Donald Trump was already setting the tone. He's
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: doing the Norad Santa calls, right, the simplest thing you're
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  Speaker 1: supposed to do as president, you know, having a little
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: fun with Norad is santaw Are we tracking Santa around
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  Speaker 1: the globe? But even there he's warning about quote bad
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Santas infiltrating the country border rhetoric wrapped in tinsel. By
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  Speaker 1: the way, it sounds like Donald Trump is a fan
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: of my single favorite Cheech and Chung record that I own.
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  Speaker 1: I'm done forty five, and that is his tale of
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Santa Claus where he's stopped by border patrol. Anyway, it is.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: If you've never heard Cheech and Chong and Santa Claus,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: please it's Cheech. Tell him the story of Santa Claus
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: to John it's amazing, It's fantastic, and I used to
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: have it memorized at the age of eight. Don't judge
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: my parents. So he's talking about bad Santam. Then comes
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  Speaker 1: the now famous post wishing Merry Christmas to the of course,
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  Speaker 1: radical left scum, so he always wants to attack fellow
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: human beings, call them scum if they politically don't agree
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  Speaker 1: with him. Again, pretty much the worst attribute any US
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  Speaker 1: president could have, particularly this one. Then, of course there's
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  Speaker 1: he attacks on the media, the threats to review broadcast
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  Speaker 1: licenses because he was mad, because again he's lonely and
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  Speaker 1: he has nothing to do but watch television, watch late television.
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  Speaker 1: He gets mad and they're making jokes at his expense,
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  Speaker 1: and he feels isolated. All of this was before Christmas dinner,
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  Speaker 1: and then on Christmas Day itself at escalated. Early Christmas morning,
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  Speaker 1: the President announces that there are US military strikes in Nigeria,
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  Speaker 1: and he's described them as quote powerful and deadly against
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  Speaker 1: the ISIS affiliated militants. Now, obviously it was very important
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  Speaker 1: for him to create legal justification by claiming this was
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  Speaker 1: ISIS affiliated militants. Okay, but listen, but do listen carefully
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  Speaker 1: to the language. This wasn't about counter terrorism capacity, it
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  Speaker 1: wasn't even about Nigerian sovereignty, and it wasn't even about
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  Speaker 1: regional stability. It was simply about religion. The president framed
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  Speaker 1: the strikes as a defense of Christians from what he
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  Speaker 1: calls slaughter. He literally wishes a merry Christmas to quote
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  Speaker 1: the dead terrorists. That's not policy language, that's civilization language. Okay.
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  Speaker 1: And in Nigeria, America isn't acting like a strategic partner.
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  Speaker 1: It's acting like a moral avenger. He literally thinks of
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  Speaker 1: this as part of the crusades. This is the first
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: color of the Trump doctrine religious identity as a justification
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  Speaker 1: for force. And notice something important, This only works where
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  Speaker 1: the US can act unilaterally, not against non state actors
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  Speaker 1: with no risk of escalation. That of course matters here.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Now let's move to Venezuela in the Western hemisphere. In Venezuela,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the language changes completely when he talks about it. Here.
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  Speaker 1: It's not about faith, it's not about human rights. It's
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: about ownership. That's why the Minormon doctrine gets talked about
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. When trying to understand his motivation with Venezuela,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: the President boats about a massive naval presence. He calls
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: it an armada. He talks about oil that was quote stolen,
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  Speaker 1: about assets that must be returned. This isn't democracy promotion,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: although I could argue that's the better justification for Venezuela,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: but he never talks about that. This is repoman to see,
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  Speaker 1: if you will. He sees himself as basically the thug
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  Speaker 1: helping the American oil companies. The US is acting less
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  Speaker 1: like a guaranter of regional stability and more like a
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: collection agency with aircraft carriers. That's pillar number two. Resources
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  Speaker 1: justify coersion. And here's the key distinction. In Venezuela's strength
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: means seizing. In Nigeria, strength means striking. It's a different language,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: it's the same logic. Now, let's move to Ukraine. Right,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: He's going to be meeting this week and we'll see
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: if something happens. I'm skeptical, which is why I don't
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: want to make a huge deal over the meeting and
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: mar lago between Zelenski and Trump. But we see that
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Zelensky is at least trying to keep Trump from striking,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: you know, essentially some sort of compact with Russia and
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: essentially leaving Ukraine on their own. So let's compare both
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: of Nigeria and Venezuela to the Ukraine situation, because this
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: is where the moral code completely disappears. In Ukraine, the
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  Speaker 1: rhetoric isn't about civilization, not least from Trump's point of view.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: It isn't about resources at least not upfront. It's about
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: ending the bloodshed, which sounds noble until you look at
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the mechanics. Military aid paused, intelligence sharing throttled. Then the
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: pressure is applied not to the invader, but to the person,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: to the entity that was invaded. And what's quietly folded
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: into this so called peace plan a minerals deal that
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: benefits only the United States lithium titanium, uranium. So Ukraine's
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: sovereignty is simply collateral. This is pillar number three. Negotiating
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: leverage beats moral clarity. So in Nigeria we fire missiles.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: In Venezuela, we blockade ports. In Ukraine we walk away
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: and call it strength. So the question is how inconsistent
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: is all of this? Is it inconsistency or is it
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: simply a system, Because there are many critics. On one hand,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you look at this, you say this is not coherent
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: at all. It's completely incoherent. But it depends on how
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: you look at how Trump use thinks. And if you
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: look at it through the umbrella of selective transactionalism, well
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: then it all starts to work together. Military force is
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: used when the enemy fits a domestic political narrative Christians
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: for the evangelical base, migrants. When it comes to Venezuela,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the cost is low, right then, as well as not
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: really attacking the United States, neither's Nigeria, and the leverage
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: is total. When those conditions don't exist, like confronting Vladimir
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Putin or Shijing Ping, the moral language just completely vanishes.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: That's why there are no missile strikes over the Wigers
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: in China. Right, what's the difference between protecting that religious
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: minority versus what the persecution of Muslims in Western China
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: versus the persecution of Christians in Nigeria. That's why me
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: and Mark gets ignored, same thing. Religious minorities essentially a genocide.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: That's why Ukraine gets a spreadsheet instead of a shield. Right.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: So the question is what kind of long term change
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: does this create with America's relationship with the world. I
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: personally think this is damaging us for a generation, and
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: it's going to take us a generation to win back
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: enough allies to restore freedom and democracy around the world. Okay,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: and you can call me an expansion US all you want. Yeah,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I am pro democracy and pro freedom. I know that
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: every civilization, every tribe, will take a different path to
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: get there. But ultimately I believe in what was written
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: in the Declaration of Independence that we have inalienable rights.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: So what do our ally see in all this, Well,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: here's the part there I think matters. This isn't changing
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: American form policy, but it is changing how Americas perceive
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: and europe leaders no longer are whispering about this issue anymore.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: They're openly talking about what's called strategic autonomy. Translation, we
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: don't trust Washington and we can't trust America anymore. Some
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: that are very much in the isolation of Swings say, good,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Europe should pay for their own security. America shouldn't be
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: doing it. To this, I'm always ready to respond with, Okay,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: I get it. You don't want America to be the
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: world's beacop, but you do know somebody's going to be
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the world's beacup. You really want Putin and she to
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: decide who the beat cop is or do you want
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: the United States to decide? But let me put a
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: pin in that. In Nigeria, officials are scrambling to have
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: to walk back to the religious framing because they're now
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: turning a counter terrorism operation legit counter terrorism. This is
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: radical extremism. This isn't about some crusade fight between the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Christians and Muslims, although I do think the president's trying
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: to appease a small group of people in this country
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: who do see it is but they're turning this count
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: when you turn a counter terrorism operation into a quote
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: religious crusade. What Nigerians fear is that this is going
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: to put a target on their own citizens, because if
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: you start to justify killing via God rather than sort
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: of via the actual humans living on this planet, that
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: is how you get more bloodshed, and that's how you
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: get no remorse with that bloodshed. In Latin America, governments
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: that dislike Maduro are alarmed at the America's behavior because
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: if oil seizures become precedent, then any resource rich country
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: in Latin America could be next. America isn't being seen
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: as unreliable, it's simply being seen as transactional, frankly, no
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: different than China. And if we're going to behave the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: exact same way China does, which is essentially transactional, pure
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: and simple, then don't be surprised when people that used
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: to be our all I say, huh, maybe I'll get
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: a better deal from China. That's kind of a problem,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: don't you think? Which gives us leads me to what
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: I believe is a grand problem. Now, So, for seventy
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: five years, rightly or wrongly, America sold one idea. We
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: sold the idea that borders matter, that sovereignty matters. And
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: look what we did to defend the sovereignty of Kuwait successfully.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Mind you, force is constrained by an accepted set of rules.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Now the rule is simple, what's in it for us?
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: And can we enforce it? That's not leadership. It's essentially
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: portfolio management. Right. He sees himself as the head of
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: a private equity fund who's just trying to make that
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: fund more financially bigger, wealthier, etcetera. And here's the but
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: here's the dangers. If allies don't want to be our customers,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: they're going to shop around, Hello Beijing. And if credibility
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: becomes conditional, partnerships will become extraordinarily temporary. So in a
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: world with Moscow in Beijing, this is again Putin's worldview,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: is everything's transactional. There is no moral clarity, There is
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: no democracy's bullshit as far as Putin's concerned. And if
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: we accept his worldview, which Donald Trump does, this is
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the huge problem. And so does she and that's why
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: he gravitates. That's why he won't confront when they violate norms,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: but he will confront anybody else who's quote smaller than
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: the United States when they do. I think it leaves
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: us very vulnerable. So here's the problem. Trump might get
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: a few short term wins here. Hey, look, he protected
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: a handful of Christians in Nigeria. Maybe maybe he took
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: out ISIS, or maybe he just radicalized religious extremists even
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: more in Nigeria. Seizing a tanker, Okay, you're going to
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: create regime change and Venezuela. Are we going to manage that?
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Or are we just going to walk away and let
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the chips fall where they may not? Managing dictatorships that
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: fall and helping with it leads to some really bad outcomes.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: See my time podcast Time Machine segments on the Ottoman
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Empire and the fall of the Soviet Union basically another empire.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: But you can lose the one asset. We are losing
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: the one asset that mattered a lot, and it's frankly
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: an asset we talk about in my fight to restore
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: legitimacy and media, and that is trust. And once trust
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: is gone, no amount of missiles, minerals or holiday posts
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: can buy it back. We're not leading the world right now.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: We're negotiating it one transaction of a time, and that's
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: an extraordinarily risky thing for us to do. And we
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: ignore he's crazy on his social media posts because we think, hell,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: you know, he's all bark, very little bite. But the
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: bites he does do and I agree the bites are
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: smaller than you think. But the bites that he does
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: do sets us back, sets us back on trust around
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: the world. Just like he has done. He wants to
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: any institution that has ever been legitimate, he tries to delegitimize.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: He did it with NATO, He's done it with mainstream media.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: He does it. He does it in so many aspects,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: does it with the rule of law. He just you know,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: it is it is. He is in some ways, like
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: I said, I want to be TV. I've called him
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: this before, a want to be TV mobster. Real mobsters
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: are sort of smaller, and heeddier and not as and
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: not as glamorous as Trump builds him up in his head.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: But Trump is a creature of fiction, right, he is not.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: His ideal is something he saw in a movie or
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: on a television show. It's not something that's actually existed. Right.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: This has always been the disconnect between the Donald Trump
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: version of America and the actual version of America. What
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the America he wants to make great again is the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: one he saw via John Wayne films. Right, it's not
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the America that actually existed in the fifties and sixties.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: And so it is a bit of a fantasy, and
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: it's just like what kind of leader he wants to be.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: He admires guys like John Gottie On, an actual mobster,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: but he also admires people like Putin. He does admire
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: people like Tony Soprano, a fictional mobster, because of the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: total and complete control they had. And that's ultimately it's clear,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: whatever it is that he's never had in his life,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: he keeps looking for something to have more control, to
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: be in charge, to be venerated, to be resp whatever
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: it is he's and in some ways I've always said,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: lucky for us, he's still looking for some sort of
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: human acknowledgment of his existence, which in some ways may
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: explain why he behaves the way he behaves. Right, He
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: is desperate for affection. I've seen it myself when I
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: compared him to FDR. I didn't compare him positively or negatively.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I just compared him factually. He saw it as a
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: positive because that's what he wants. He wants to be
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: seen as bigger than the moment. He wants to be
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: seen as somebody who were all stuck learning about in history,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: whether we like it or not. And in some ways
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: he thinks, great people, your greatness is measured by how
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: much impact you have, regardless of whether that impact is
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: positive or negative. I really truly, and this to me
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: has always been the warning side. You know it does.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's alarming what we may end up doing
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: with Ukraine. Now I'm pretty confident the unintended consequence of
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: this isolationist foreign policy, that the pres the sort of
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: transactional semi isolation of foreign policies sort of anti Europe,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: is that it's going to strengthen Europe and it's going
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: to make the European Union a more an actual competitor
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: to us economically. It's going to strengthen Europe's involvement in
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: NATO in such a way that we may we may
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: miss the influence we once have. So I do think
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: there's and that's the thing, right, there's always unintended consequences
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: that develop when we try to engineer the world through
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: our prism, and we want everybody to see things absolutely
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: through through the prism of of how he wants to
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: make things. Everybody else gets to say in this too.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: And while it looks like there's no consistency into this
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: foreign policy, we are starting to see a consistency. He
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: picks on smaller entities to try to make a point.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: He ultimately sees things, as you know, like he did
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: with the Iraqi oil. He still to this day believes
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: that oil belongs to America since we helped liberate Iraq,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: that that should be the price. Everything is a transaction,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: which is the exact worldview that Vladimir Putin has been
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: preaching since he took office at the start of this
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: twenty first century. All right, So with that we will
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: transition from one Christmas Day unpacking of our politics to
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the other issue that pops up every Christmas Day, the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: relevance and interest of NBA basketball. How's that for a
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: really rough transition. I kid, let's sneak in a break
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: when we come back, your own Whitesman on his book,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: A Hollywood ending Lebron and the Lakers and what has
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: been an uncomfortable partnership. Right is Lebron James is always
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: going to be at least number four on the all
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: time Laker list, right behind Magic Kobe. And there's a
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: real there's a real generation well debate of who's won
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Magic or Kobe both have five titles? Who's won on
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: that one? I know where I come down. Then there's
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Kareem who some argue should be above all of them, right.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Then there's Wilt Chamberlain on Lebron James kind of no
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: madish all timers who were mostly associated, who were associated
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: with the Lakers for a time, who did great things
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: on other franchises, and sort of I think the questions
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: are they Lakers or not? And you know what I
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: mean when I asked that question. All right, let's sneak
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: in the break. You're on Whitesmith, the Native's side. It's
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: sponsorship time. But you know what, it's really great when
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: you get a sponsor that you already use. And guess what.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Quins is something that in the tod household we already
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: go to. Why do we go to Quin's Because it's
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: a It's a place you go where you can get
• 26:52
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• 26:56
  Speaker 1: one of the things I've been going through is I've
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: transitioned from being mister Cotini guy to wanting a little
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: more casual but to look nice doing it. Is I
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: become mister quarter zip guy? Well, guess what. Guess it's
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: got amazing amounts of quarter zips. It is quints. I
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: have gotten quite a few already from there. The stuff's
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: really nice. They have Mongolian cashmere sweaters for fifty dollars.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: I just know, hey, cashmere, that's pretty good. You don't
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: normally get that for fifty bucks or less. Italian wool
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: coats that look and feel like designer the stuff. I'll
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: be honest, right, you look at it online, you think, okay,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: is this really as nice as it looks? Well, when
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: I got it, I was like, oh, this is real quality.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm going to end up making sure I
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: take it to my dry cleaner so I don't screw
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: it up when I clean it. But I've been quite impressed.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: In Hey, it's holiday season. It is impossible to shop
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• 28:32
  Speaker 1: is podcast time machine time, And as I teased, I'm
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: going to do some what ifs that you could argue
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: are sort of going back at a time machine but
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: impacting what happened and then coming back and seeing, hey,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: what happened when you gave Biff the gamble, the sports
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Almanac and he could go back in time and gamble
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: on all the actual outcomes. Right, So we'll be doing
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: you know, in some ways that is the distortion of
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: our todd Cash time Eschine segment. But I am in
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: straightforward mode. And as you know, just to give you
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: sort of the parameters of what I use it is
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: there is something taking place this coming week in history,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: a milestone that happened. In this case, it's December thirty first,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: nineteen fifty four, is where we're going back in our
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Toodcast time machine. So that is and it is something
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: that came to an end, and I'm going to use
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: it to tell the story of what we are, which
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: is a very reluctant nation of immigrants. Let me explain.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: December thirty first, nineteen fifty four, Ellis Island quietly closed
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: its doors to become simply a museum. There was no ceremony,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: there was no speech, there was no national moment of reflection,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: which is actually fitting because at the time, Ellis Island
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: didn't close because America stopped being a nation of immigrants.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: It closed because the immigration system that built Ellis Island
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: no longer existed. I'm going to get to that and
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: that quiet ending gives us a perfect entry point into
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: a much bigger question, and it's one we have been
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: arguing about since the founding of this country. Is America
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: a nation of immigrants? And if we are, which factually
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: we are, have we always been actually a reluctant nation
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: of immigrants? Which is the case I'm going to make
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: with this time machine so to answered honestly, we do
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: need to strip away the nostalgia and we need to
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: look at what the twentieth century actually did when it
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: came to immigration into the United States. First, we're going
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: to talk about the myth and the reality of Alissimon.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: At the turn of the twentieth century, immigration in the
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: United States was massive, It was chaotic, and it was
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: largely unrestricted. Allis Island processed millions of people, sometimes as
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: many as twelve thousand people a day, and most were
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: arriving by steamship from Europe. That was the primary way
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: we got immigrants into this country. And it is also
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: the version of immigration that we America love to romanticize.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: But even that, there was anxiety built into that immigration
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: system at that time. Newspapers in that time and if
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: you go to Alis Island as a museum. You will
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: see this. As this was happening, we talk about it
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: as amazing Elis Island, and in fact it's a badge
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: of honor if you had a relative come through Ellis Island. Right,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: But at the time, this is what newspapers were warning about, crime, disease, anarchists,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: job competition, cultural change. In other words, America has never
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: experienced an immigration surge without fear attached to it. And
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: this has been true arguably since the very beginning, but
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: certainly was also all throughout the twentieth century, and by
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: the nineteen twenties, this fear got turned into policy that
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: brings us to the quota system, which actually governed America's
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: immigration system for basically half of the twentieth century. The
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: modern immigration debate really begins with this decision to restrict
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: entries via quota. The Immigration Act of nineteen twenty four,
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: which was also known as the Johnson Reid Act, created
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: what was a national origins quota system that fundamentally reshaped
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: who could come to the United States, And this decision
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: sort of embedded a form of racism that people now
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: look back on nostalgically and think, well, if America was
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: for it. It couldn't have been racist, but I'll get
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: to that. But here's what this Immigration Act did. One
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: it severely limited immigration from southern and Eastern Europe. As
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: somebody whose Jewish relatives came from Eastern Europe, let me
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: just say that. A lot of Jews saw that at
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the time as essentially preventing Jews from coming into the
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: United States. But if you just made it about a
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: certain region of Europe, it didn't look like some sort
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: of restriction based on religion. The nineteen twenty four law
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: favored northern and western Europe and virtually excluded immigrants coming
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: in from Asia and Africa. Well, what it did do
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: immigration dropped by more than eighty percent, And this is
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: actually what essentially ended Ellis Island, even though thirty years
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: later they finally shut their doors. Because after nineteen twenty four,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: most immigrants had to be approved before arriving. It used
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: to be you got processed once you got here. Then
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: in the after nineteen twenty four, you had to get
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: approval before you could come. Ship based mass migration completely
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: collapsed because of this change in law, and Ellis Island
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: never really operated again as a true gateway after nineteen
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: twenty four, and in fact, by the time Ellis Island
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: closes December thirty first, nineteen fifty four, it's no longer
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: a symbol of openness. It's simply a relic of a
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: system America had already had abandoned. Which brings us to
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: the next turning point in the immigration debate nineteen sixty
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: five and what lawmakers thought they were doing versus what
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: ended up happening. And this arguable is the most consequential
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: legislation that was enacted and arguably still not fixed sense.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: The Immigration and Nationality Act of nineteen sixty five is
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: easily one of the most misunderstood laws in American history
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: because it did not come due to a sudden embrace
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: of mass immigration. It actually came out of a civil
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: rights argument, and it was a Cold War inspired civil
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: rights argument. Yeah, I've one of my thesis in sort
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: of why we had less polarization during the Cold War,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: And in fact, one of my major thesis is I
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: don't think we get the Civil Rights Act of sixty
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: five without the Cold War. That our fight with the Soviets,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: who were we are having a propaganda war about democracy
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: and freedom. How could we be glamorizing democracy without giving
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: freedom to every American that lived in this country. So
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: there was the Cold War politics sort of how bring
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: I think both sides together on this? And I wonder
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: without the Cold War do we get the Civil Rights Act?
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: I'll save that for another what if. But by the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: early sixties, the national Origins quota system was really embarrassing
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: for the United States internationally because it was explicitly discriminatory.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: We picked and chose what ethnic origins we wanted in
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: which ones we didn't. We contradicted what was the civil
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: rights movement at home at that moment, and we undermined
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: US credibility abroad. And in fact, it was standing at
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: the Statue of Liberty that then President Lyndon B. Johnson
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: said the system violated quote, the basic principle of American democracy.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: So he was making a moral case on immigration. But
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: here's the part we forgot. The law was sold to
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the American public as being very modest and non transformational.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: This wasn't going to have a huge impact. Supporters went
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: out of their way to reassure skeptics in that moment.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: They argued the following this would not dramatically increase immigration.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: This would not change the ethnic composition of the country,
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: and this was about fairness, not volume. In fact, then
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Senator Ted Kennedy famblessly said the bill would not quote
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: flood our cities or quote upset the ethnic mix of
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: our society. And many critics, including labor unions, weren't focused
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: on race at all. They worried about job competition, wage pressure,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: and whether the country could absorb more people. Those concerns
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: were minimized. They were sort of glossed over and attributed
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: frankly to Oh, you're being racist, you're being xenophobic. You're
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: not seeing it. So here's what Congress built. The structure
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: of the law mattered more than the speeches that were given.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: So the law abolished the national origins quotas. It prioritized
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: family reunification, which was a huge aspect to this. It
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: created limited employment based visas, so no one fully modeled
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: what that all of that would mean over time. And
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: once one family member entered legally, then others could follow.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: It was called chain migration, and it was never the
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: intent of the law, but it ended up being a mechanism.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: The result wasn't immediate chaos, but it was steady and
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: sustained growth, and the shift and where immigrants came from
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: also changed, which brings us to the next unresolved chapter,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: and that was the nineteen eighties amnesty enforcement and the
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: deal that didn't hold. So by the late seventies, growing
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: up in Miami, this was my sort of first memory
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: of policy debates, and it was all over Central American
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: and Cuban immigrants, so I had a front row seat
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: to this. So by the late seventies and early eighties,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: a reality had become impossible to ignore. Millions of people
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: were already living and working in the United States illegally,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: and the system had no credible answer. There wasn't This
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: wasn't new migration. It was simply accumulated migration, and culture
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: relied on it and there was no enforcement against it.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Construction relied on it, again, no enforcement against it. Restaurants
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: relied on it, again, no enforcement against it, and both
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: parties knew it. And it leads to the Immigration Reform
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: and Control Act signed by Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty six,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: the Mizzoli Act some people know it as the deal
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: had three parts legalization, so basically it gave amnesty to
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: about three million undocumented immigrants, they got legal status automatically.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Number two was employer sanctions. Employers were supposed to be
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: punished for hiring undocumented workers nineteen eighty six. Yeah, we
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: can't even get anybody to use e faerify today and
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: we didn't even have that system in place in nineteen
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: eighty six. And then of course there was the promise
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: of more border enforcement. This was a promise that this
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: would be a one time resent. Reagan even framed it
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: pretty optimistically, consistent with his worldview. It was a humane solution.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: So here's why it failed. And this is the history.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: The lesson history keeps teaching us on the issue. The
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: legalization worked, enforcement did not. Employer sanctions were very weakly enforced,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: if at all. Demand for labor never did change, and
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: the legal pathways never did expand, so then all the
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: incentives remained. Chain migration essentially was the best way through,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: and Congress moved on. They left the system permanently unfinished
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: because our politics were too complicated on this and there
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: was no clean left right argument. There were coalitions in
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: different ways that sort of really made this impossible for
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: one party to be the party in one way or
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: the other. I mean in South Florida you had Republicans
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: standing up for migrants and undocumented immigrants in ways that
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: you didn't have in other parts in the country. But
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: then in the Midwest you had conservative farmers. You needed
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: labor anyway. You know, many of you if you're listening
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: to this podcast, you know that story. But after eighty six,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: arguably this is where our modern immigration politics are bornation
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: without durbal enforcement, enforcement without legal reform, and a growing
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: population living in limbo. And then this is where the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: current era fits into all this historical contest, of course matters,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: which is why I wanted to lay this out. I
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: thought this would be a good pretext to sort of explain,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: you know, constantly, the number one question that I'm asking
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: is how did we get here? It's usually a follow up,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: whether it's on campaign finance reform, it could be a
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: follow up on democracy, follow up on for policy, follow
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: up on character politics, follow up on the media. But
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: the question remains the same, how did we get here? Well,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: on immigration, this is my best way of trying to
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: explain how did we get here? I don't know if
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: I've got a way out. If I did, maybe I'd
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: be running for office. But this is it's important to
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: understand the context because the Trump administration didn't invent immigration restriction,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: but what they did do is rejected the optimism of
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: the nineteen sixty five reforms, rejected the compromise language of
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: the nineteen eighty six reforms heavily into enforcement, de terrence,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: and symbolism. So what was new wasn't really restriction. It
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: was rhetoric. It was the visibility, the willingness to make
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: immigration the central cultural dividing line historically. This isn't a rupture.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: It's actually simply a pendulum swing. It's a return to
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: an older American instinct. But it's one of the uglier
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: chapters of America. It's not the ugliest chapter, we know
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: what that one is, but it's one of the uglier ones,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: and we're still dealing with the fallout from it, which
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: leads me to ask this question, are we really a
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: nation of immigrants? So let's answer the question as honestly
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: as we can. Yes, we are. We are a nation
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: of immigrants, and America is still more of an idea
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: than it is an ethnicity. But history suggests something a
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: bit more precise. We are a nation of immigrants, but
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: we're a reluctant nation of immigrants. We celebrate immigration in
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: retrospect once the simulation happens and once the fear fades,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: But in real time, anxiety dominates, restriction follows, and the
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: half finished reforms pilot. Ellis Island closed because mass immigration
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: and the quota system rose because fear prevailed. The nineteen
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: sixty five law reopened the door cautiously, nineteen eighty six
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: tried to reset the system imperfectly, and today we're still
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: arguing over the consequences of both. So Ellis Island didn't
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: close because the American dream ended. It closed because the
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: system changed, and the tension between openness and control never
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: went away. That tension isn't new, and it goes back
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: to what I think is the founding tension that divides
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: so much of our politics, which is a basic argument
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: of who gets to be an American? And I actually
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: think it should continue to be the single most important
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: debate question that a Civics teacher should want to be
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: asked to everybody that runs for office, and every debate,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: every interview of a new candidate for office should always
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: include that question, Right, who gets to be an American?
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Tell me how you answer that. You answer that question
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: for me, and I'll tell you what your political philosophy is,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: because that's the debate we continue to have, and ultimately,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: it's the debate that's at the heart of this division
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: and what has been essentially a never ending debate about
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: who gets to be an American, who gets to come
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: to America, who gets to work in America, and who
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: gets to be who gets the privileges of American citizenship.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury
• 44:00
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• 44:03
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• 44:07
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• 44:11
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• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,
• 44:17
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• 44:20
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• 44:27
  Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty
• 44:30
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• 44:32
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• 44:34
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• 44:37
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• 44:48
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• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. All right, So
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: with that, let me sneak in a few questions. We'll
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: do a little last check coming up. I'm gonna I'm
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: gonna give a empty the mail bag, as they say,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: but let me do a few now, ask Chuck. I
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: hate Chuck and happy holidays. Wanted to flag a fun
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: but serious proposal from former podcast guest Congressman Chris Dluzio Pennsylvania,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: the hot Dog Act. Honest hot Dog is an acronym
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: in this case, honest Oversight of ticketed dining and on
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: site grub, which calls on the FTC to investigate concession
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: price gouging at publicly funded stadiums. Has anyone who's recently
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: been to a major sporting event can attest food prices
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: are out of control. Giving your intersection of sports and politics,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: i'd love to hear your take on this. PS totally random,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: but you have a favorite political comedy. Dave nineteen ninety
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: three is high on my list, Chris Pittsburgh, you know
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: that's actually a good It's a good top five list
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: that I ought to come up with. I'll tell you
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: the first movie I think of when you asked me
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: about a good political comedy is Distinguished Gentleman. It's the
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Eddie Murphy one on Congress. It was written in early nineties.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: I remember in the moment I felt the same way
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: about that movie that I felt about Idiocracy the first
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: time I saw it when it came out in No. Six.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Let's just say it age as well. I think Distinguished
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Gentleman does as good of a job of explaining how
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Congress actually works, or excuse me, how Washington works, since
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: it's a class that I teach for my friends at
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: USC than any any other. Dave's a good one, don't
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: get me wrong, Dave's in that my top five, but
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Distinguished Gentlemen probably I go a little bit higher because
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: it was written by ex congressional staffers, so there was.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: There was little little grace notes of detail that were
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: just fantastic that Dave didn't have. Dave romanticized, you know,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Dave is sort of the West wingification of things, a
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: little bit, kind of like American President. You know, Dave
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: feels like it should have been an Aaron Zorkin even
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: though it wasn't. It's sort of the fantasy land versus
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: distinguished gentleman is a little bit more of a reality
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: check on it. So anyway, but I digress. Look, I
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: think you bring up an interesting point, and it's one
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: of those I remember when the sort of the snobbish
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: political media coop cooed Biden focusing on junk fees. But
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: this sort of incremental price gouging that takes place. First
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: of all, I do think sporting events and music events
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: are becoming we are pricing out the middle class, right,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: And in fact, I would expand that to Disney. Right.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Look at how expensive two nights at Disney are, and
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: there isn't. I mean, basically, if you're not a Florida
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: resident and you get a little bit of the Florida
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: resident discount, it's hard to afford Disney more than sort
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: of once a lifetime, right, once a generation. It is
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: that expensive to do, and it is look, you know,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: I could mind, Hey, I only paid fifty bucks to
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: go see the Rolling Stones, right, and I think and
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: I remember feeling price gouged when I was sitting in
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: the four hundreds for you too at ninety bucks. And
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: then of course there's the amount of money my daughter
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: spent to go see Taylor Swift that I may or
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: may not have helped subsidize at least one of the
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: concerts that you got to see, and that was well
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: into the three to four hundred dollars range. So some
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: of this is inflation, there's no doubt. But you know,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: are we making sporting events? And you're right right, so
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: many taxpayer dollars are being used to develop almost all
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: of these venues. Right. There aren't many arenas or stadiums
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: that don't have some that didn't get developed without some
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: sort of public tax break. Some of it is quite small.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, the owner of the Dolphins mostly built everything
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: on his own. But you know it's not like he
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: built the roads to the stadium that he got that
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: that certainly had some taxpayer, uh taxpayer involvement in it.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: But all of these venues, all of these arenas open
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: air stadiums, closed stadiums where you see concerts, revivals, Disney
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: on ice, sporting events, concerts, et cetera. Right, they're all
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: massively going up in price, and there is this idea
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: of captive audience the process. You know, we've we've we've
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: we've had fits and starts. You know, we beat up
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: ticket Master. It feels like every once in a while
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: when we when when it looks like everybody's hey, look
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: we're we're going to protect the consumer. Let's go after
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: ticket Master because they're kind of the ticketing monopoly, although
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: the monopoly is less than it was than it once.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: But you're getting at something that I think that there is.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: You know, there's always a question are we going to
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: hit a point where the average fan is priced out
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: of being able to attend to these games? NFL games
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: feel that way, you know, and you throw in the
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: hassle of it all, right, it's not easy to get
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: to in some cases that for the price, the hassle
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: is the experience worth it? Right? You start factoring all
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: that in and you know, there's so many different velvet
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: ropes that they want to sell you as well with
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: these experiences, and then these teams and these even entertainers
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: prioritize the experience for the super elite because they can
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: basically profit more on that, creating more velvet rope moments
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: for those that can afford it, because that's where you
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: can get your extra cash, that's where you can get
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: your extra profit. Not providing those experiences for the middle class,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: not even providing the opportunity beyond obviously financially being able
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: to have the opportunity. It is. Look, I'm at the
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: end of the day, I'm a free, free marketer. But
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: I think that you are a large customer base is
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: better than a niche customer base that is extraordinarily wealthy.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: You may make a good business out of that for
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: a few years, but that is not a long term
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: strategy for success. Disney World works because it seems to
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: appeal to all, but the minute Disney World creates these
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: barriers to entry that are now higher and higher for
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: the working class, well, then suddenly Disney isn't for all.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: And suddenly Disney releases a DVD or a movie or
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: a new show on streaming, and people don't want to
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: give you the six dollars a month anymore, the ten
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: dollars a month anymore in order to get access to
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: those princess movies or get access to some of these,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: you know, fun animated shorts, and then you suddenly lose
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: pieces of your customer base. So look, I think I
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: love the idea. You know that you focus on publicly
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: funded stadiums. I would love find me the stadium or
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: arena that didn't have some public funding help. And again
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: to me building roads and freeways that explicitly get to
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: your stadium, like the Joe Robbie Stadium. Yes he did
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: the stadium part himself, but not all of the government
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: essentially infrastructure that was needed to support fifty to eighty
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: thousand people going in and out of that place ten
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: or fifteen times a year. So, in fairness, there isn't
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: anything there. And you know, would it be interesting if
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: you essentially created two pricing structures where those that paid
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: taxes in that area got a discount, the same way
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: Disney does give Florida residents a discount. You get a
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Florida resident discount. I assume there's one in California. I
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: don't know about that one. I know about the Florida one.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Because I live the I have lived planing around. There's
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: certain months, it used to be certain months a year
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: that the Florida discount would kick in. You know. It's
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: basically I think it would be the times that others
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: were traveling less and they wanted you know, it used
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: to be that Disney saw, just get people in your
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: park and then you can sell them other stuff, even
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: if you get them in the park for free. And
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: it used to be the mindset of stadium owners, right,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: gets you into the park, you know, buy a ten
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: dollars coke, you know, so what if you got the
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: ticket for free? At least I got some money out
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: of you. But it's an interesting thought. I will just
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: tell you this. This is the type of populist politics
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: that cuts across partisan lines. Right when you're sort of
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: getting at something that annoys the liberal and the conservative,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: you know, you're like, man, what's this price gouging? Didn't
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: my taxpayers contribute taxpayer money contribute to this? Why am
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: I now paying an extra surcharge on top of the
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: tax dollars that already went to this? You know, so
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: I think it's a I think it's a good It's
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: like the stock trading ban at it's good populous politics.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know if this is good law, but I
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: do know it's good politics. All right, let me take
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: one more question. We'll do a little football because, like
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: I said, I'm going to do a whole monster mail
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: bag here that I promise this comes from daniel A.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: He says, Hey, Chuck, a few weeks ago, you mentioned
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: that both parties are likely to see new congressional leadership soon.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: How much do you think the twenty twenty six midterms
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: will shape those races? For instance, if Democrats gained lots
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: of seats, could new moderates push for centrist leadership while
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: GP losses leave only hard right members to elevate a
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: more extreme leader. Or are there are other dynamics at
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: play beyond the math. Look, I think the math is
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: going to mean something, you know. Take take Chuck Schumer.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: Though he's unpopular in the Democratic base, there's no doubt
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: about it. He has got many elected senators who don't
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: have the confidence in his leadership. But if Democrats gain
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: the Senate, are they really going to get rid of them?
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: They're not going to get rid of him. It's just
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: not the way senators behave even if there's a slew
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: of new Senators. So the point being his results matter here. Right, Look,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: does Mike Johnson state speaker if they hold the House? Yes,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean it's just yes, that's how it works,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: you know, it is it is. And is he gone
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: and not a leader at all if they lose control
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: of the House. Yes, that's going to be the case too.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: By the way, I think both Schumer and Jefferies, if
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Democrats don't win the House and Senate, they're both gone.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: The question is whether any of them can survive what
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: I think is going to be knocked out on drag
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: out intra party fights in twenty eight on the direction
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: of both parties. You know which direction? Is the Democratic
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Party going to go in a more democratic socialist direction
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: or in a more sort of business friendly direction. Right?
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: That is ultimately the larger argument that that party's going
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: to have, and I think the larger argument the Republicans
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: they're going to have is are they going to be
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: a sort of more of a populist nationalist party or
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: are they going to be a more free market business
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: friendly party. And that same fight in a different different
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: ways is going to and it's going to be interesting
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: because you have some people participating both in the center
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: left camp and the center right camp, hoping that at
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: least one of them wins their argument in their primaries.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: It's possible neither does right and we get JD Vance
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: and AOC right, which would be you know, it's sort
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: of I joke. You know, if we got Ken Paxon
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: and Jasmine Crawt in Texas, it would be essentially a
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: preview of what would happen if both parties nominated from
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: their bases the next two presidential nominees. So I do
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: think the results in twenty six will have a huge impact.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: The safest of the four leaders is Thune because Thune
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: isn't a Trump acolyte, but he is seems to have
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: managed Trump okay enough. You know, we'll see, but you know,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: and I don't think losses will be attributed to him.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: I think the losses will be attributed to Trump, which
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: weirdly could strengthen Thune. So, of the four, I think
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Thune is the least in danger, but all of the
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: other three very much their futures rely on the results
• 57:49
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  Speaker 1: toodcast for thirty percent off. All right, I'm going to
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: stop there because I think for many of you this
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: will be I'm going to use this instead of a
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: little bit of a football in review. A little bit
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: we've had. We had our single best, most interesting college
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: football bowl day that you could have, and it really
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: was just not that interesting, right. I mean, I enjoyed
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: the BYU Georgia Tech game. I was glad to see
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: it was competitive. It does feel as if the Pop
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: Tarts Bowl is now the only non major bowl that
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: anybody seems to have heard of, which is just crazy, right.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: You know, back in my day, the Gator Bowl, Liberty Bowl,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Peach Bowl, which were not major bowls then none of
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: them were Citrus Bowl. You know, they had their own
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: cachetes about it. You know, the Sun Bowl had a
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: real history, the Liberty Bowl had a real history. I've
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: been to a Liberty Bowl, for what it's worth. I've
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: been to a Peach Bowl back in the day when
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: it was Miami's first bowl game in fifteen years, and
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: you still have the phenomenon, right. Look, the Clemson Penn
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: State game was just atrocious to watch. The only game
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: worse to watch was was the mim of Ohio Presno
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: State game. Literally, if you only if you were gambling
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: on it, were you watching that game. So I may
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: have given a hint away of how I was watching
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: that game, but I always made sure it was in
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: my four box. Even the NFL offerings. Right, boy, this
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: was just a Christmas dud for the NFL. All of
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: those games lacked a little something right. Obviously, relevance is
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: a big part of it, and there was no Patrick
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: Mahomes right in theory it was supposed to be the
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Cowboys and Commanders fighting it out for a playoff spot
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: or the division, just like it seemed like that could
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: be at the beginning of the season. So it was
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: a good day for the NBA. As I told you,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: these were games worth watching, and I have to say
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: the Knicks delivered. That was a heck of a game. Nicks, Calves,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: Wemby delivered as I promised you Wemby would, And man,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: you gotta love me some Anthony Edwards. You know, he's
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: the he to me is the forgotten rising star. He's
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: like the guy that sort of everybody wants to talk
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: about Wemby and Jannis and Jokic. And then there's old
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards, who's kind of an old school He's just
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: a you know, Lebron Kobe Jordan like player who you know,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: can do a little bit of everything, wants to be
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: that kind of player. And we forget Hey, don't forget ant. Man,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: I'm a huge ant. Man. I enjoy it, Man, I
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: enjoy watching him play basketball because it kind of feels
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: like a throwback to the game I grew up with
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: in the eighties and nineties. You know, there's a there's
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: this sort of a style that he plays with that
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: I enjoy. But the NBA delivered, and you got to
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: give it to them Karma, right. The NFL tried to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: steal it It's Christmas and it really just fell flat.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: And now you have so many opt outs by the way,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we end up dealing with opt
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: outs in Bowl games, and you're dealing with, you know,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: teams that are deciding. Are we using this to try
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: to see which players we want to keep? You know?
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: And we're just seeing the same thing. And this this
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: is a warning to college football if you choose to
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: go to twenty four teams, because you'll get the last
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: week or two of the season, you may get games
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: that are meaningless, more games that are meaningless. Look at
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: all the meaningless games now in the NFL, like next
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: week the Packers. They don't even get me started in
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: the Packers situation at the moment. Look, I obviously have
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: skin in the game as a Packer fan. I the
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: coach frustrates me. You guys, if you've learned anything from
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: me is I I'm obsessed with play callers, and I
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: hold play callers more responsible than anybody else when it
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: comes to my two favorite foot ball teams, the University
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Remidi football, the University Remidi and the Green Bay Packers.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: And here's what frustrates me, right, I've gone, you know,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: soup the nuts on my frustrations with the Miami Hurricane
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: play caller Shannon Dawson and how he does not call,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: does not game plan for the team, we're playing until
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: the second half. It drives me batty. It's terrible, and
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: it has put Miami in the situation of almost not
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: making the playoffs. I really believe that. But it almost
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: cost us the A and M game. And it better
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: he better actually game plan because if the Ohio State
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: team shows up that showed up against Indiana, Miami could
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: beat that team if they actually gained plan to face
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: that team and don't wait until the second half to
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: start play calling against the actual defense you're facing, not
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: just simply getting your offense offensive issues worked out, to
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: see what's working and what isn't. Well, my complain about
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: lafleor is and this is something me and my packer
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: buddies we've been talking about a lot in our text chain.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: Why is it the little floor looks like he is
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: more dynamic of a play caller when Willis is at
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: quarterback than when Love is at quarterback. And you know,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love games. Look, he wins, he's got a good record,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: and you can't you know, it is never flashy with Love.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: And you know it's not like Farvar Rogers both were
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: a bit more. You know, Love is just very careful.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: By the way, that's pretty responsible. He runs the offense well,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: he doesn't improvise as much, and I think that's the
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: jenesiqua that's sometimes missing from you know, from Jordan love
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: apologists like myself, because there isn't like these you know,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: you know he does. He is pretty good at sort
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: of when he moves around the pocket. But for whatever reason,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: he doesn't like to run as much. And Willis, you
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: know what you see with the packers is that there?
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: To me, Malik Willis the last two weeks has looked
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: like a better version of Jalen Hurts, has looked like
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: a a version of Lamar Jackson that has succeeded in
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: the past, right where he is comfortable behaving like a
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: running back at times. Right, and he will both you know,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: both Jalen Hurts and Lamar you know, they both have
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: learned not to take as many hits. But early on,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: you know, they were running backs who could throw the ball.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: And I think Malik Wilson Willis was and this is
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: why it took him a while to develop. I think
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: from Liberty and etcetera said he was really a running
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: back who could throw the ball, and who could game
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: plan and who could read a defense and he's obviously
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: and when you think about where Laflour, yes he comes
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: from McVeigh, but it's sort of that McVey Shanahan, the
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: larger Shanahan tree, and the Shanahan tree does like to
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: emphasize the running game. And it's clear to me that
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: Lafleur wishes Jordan Love would run more. And if he would,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: I think he would game plan more that you would.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: You would see more run RPOs that where the R
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: was picked before the P was picked and the quarterback
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: did a little bit more running than he does. And
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: when you know, it's sort of when that system is
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: working on all cylinders, it's when you have a quarterback
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: that is willing to run. And it does seem as
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: if for whatever reason, and I don't know enough. I'm
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: not a Packers beat reporter, but I'd love to know.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: Is this something? Are we protecting Love? We're afraid of
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: him getting hurt? Has there been issues? Is it like
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: you know that they don't want him to take hits?
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: Does he not want to take hits? You know, we
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: don't know the full situation, but for whatever reason, the
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: play calling feels much more dynamic over the last couple
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: of weeks when Willis has been there, now part of it,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: maybe the stakes are lower, and so Lafleur doesn't second
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: guess himself as much when Willis is at quarterback than
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: when Love is at quarterback. But as a fan, as
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: a as a fan who watches every play, there's a
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: noticeable difference into how he calls it. There's a there's
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: a liberation in the play calling decisions. I feel like
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: that that Lafleur makes when Willis is there, then when
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: Love is there. And you know, look for all the
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: Packer fans that have enjoyed the way the offenses look
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: these last two weeks, and I'm one of them, I'm
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: also mindful they lost the last two games. First one
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: was a freak way to lose, and you know, the
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: Ravens game was I don't know. I mean, clearly, losing
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Kenny Clark in the trade of Micah Parsons matters a lot.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: If Michaeh Parsons gets hurt, we have nobody to stuff
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: the run. And my god, I mean, it looked like
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Derrek Henry was back in high school. It was just
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: ridiculous that he got over one hundred yards and so
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter what you do on offense if you
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: can't stop the run on that front. So, but I
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: go back, that's the question I have, and that's the
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: question we're going to see, you know. I mean, I
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: assume Willis plays again in the final week because the
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Packers have no reason to play. I'm a little concerned
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: about Jordan Love rust for what it's worth. So maybe
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: let's treat it like a third preseason game, or maybe
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: he plays for a quarter and then you bring in Willis.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: Be careful there. But there's something off I think in
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: the relationship between Jordan Love and the floor that is
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: that is a that would be a theory I would
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: pursue if I were a Packers beat reporter. Do are
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: they not as in sync? Why does the offense look
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: more dynamic when Willis is running it? It's just a fact,
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: It's true. Is it just as simple as Willis is
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: willing to run and Love isn't? Is it different play calling?
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: Is it different RPOs that he's given? Is it simply?
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: Like I said, Willis playing for a job. I'm curious.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: You know, he's not under contract. Do the Packers get
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: anything for him? If I were the Miami Dolphins, and
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel stays Malik Willis would be an incredible quarterback
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: for them. He could be the guy that unlocks that team,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: that offense in a way that too and never could
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: unlock because that was a case where they couldn't use
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: they couldn't have to run the ball. But if you
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: get Mike McDaniel, who was, to remember, a run game
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: coordinator first, and he's essentially wants to be a run
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: first team and the Dolphins have been a bit more
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: competitive when they've just decided to screw it to him,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: let's be a run first team. Well what if that's
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: Malik Willis back there with Devon a Chain h and
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Oli Oli Gordon Jr. And you have Jalen Waddle and
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: you have a couple of those good receivers and you
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: have a main leak Willis that can also run the ball.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: As a Packer fan, can the Packers get first or second?
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: Can they at least get a second round pick for him?
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: In this day and age of the NFL, do you
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: want to pay a backup quarterback reasonable money to keep
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: them around? Given this is now two years in a
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: row where the Packers have had to play meaningful games
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: with a backup quarterback. Right, These are all questions that
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: the Packers have to the side in the off season.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: But it's interesting there all right, a few storylines for
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: the upcoming quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. Obviously, you've
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: got Miamu Versaile State. I love that my friends at
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: ESPN are promoting the historic nature. The last time they
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: met when stakes were this high was when a controversial
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: flag was thrown by a Big twelve official by the
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: name of Terry Porter calls the past interference that hand
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: to Jim Trussell in Ohio State their first national title
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: for Ohia State, it was their first national title in
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: over thirty years at the time and essentially jump started there,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: brought their program back to elite status. Without that victory
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: over Miami, you know that if they lose that game,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: they was scandal ridden. Tressel was kind of driven out
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: that hold the backle with the with the their big
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: freshmen at the time, You know all of that Ohia
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: State may never be the Ohio State we know of
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: today without that controversial ending to that game, where if
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: they just are another hurdle in Miami's drive to be
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: the greatest greatest of their generation, which I still think
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: they probably have a good, pretty good case for that
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: back to back would have cemented it in a way
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: that would have been different. Right, even though that one
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: team is considered an all time, that entire entity would
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: be I think it would be an elevated There wouldn't
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: even be a debate with the LSU twenty nineteen team.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: But what it did for Ohio State, right, Ohio State
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: hadn't won a national title in over thirty years, hadn't
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: had always been a wannabe never really you know, it'd
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: always been sort of the rung below, kind of like
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: where Wisconsin football had been sitting for the last twenty
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: five years, so close but can't quite make that next
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: sleep where I would argue Oregon football is at right,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: which is boy, they seem to be with the big boys,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: but they when are they ever going to break through?
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: Are they ever going to actually win a title? Can
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: they ever actually break through? And so there's some fun
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: storyline there. The Big Ten has a lot on the line, right,
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: I'm if you told me all three Big Ten teams
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: lost this weekend, Oil State to Miami, Indiana to Alabama,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: and Oregon to Texas Tech. Right, there's the only other
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: game is Georgia Ole miss which has no Big Ten
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: team in it. What's the narrative, right, I'm just saying, Look,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not predicting anything. And you know, the Big Tens
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: fan base is I think, second to none. They have
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: terrific fans. You know they'll they'll sell out stadiums for
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: eight and four teams, So kudos to them. I just
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: think it's a storyline that's sitting out there. I'm obviously
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: very bullish in Miami's ability to beat Ohio State. I
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: think Texas Tech. I think Oregon is much softer. I
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: don't think they've I am not impressed with who Oregon's
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: beat yet. Look, they beat Texas Tech. I'm not going
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: to be a doubter anymore. But I'm a doubter until
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: I see them play a team that can physically I think,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: bully them in a way they haven't faced yet. They
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: didn't face Ohio State this year, they didn't face Michigan,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: they didn't face the more physical Big ten teams. Well,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: we shall see. Maybe Indiana does count, is that maybe
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: Iowa does count. But look at the struggles they had
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: with Indiana and Iowa, who are built more physically than
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: Oregon is so I have some I have some suspicion there.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: And then of course there's the the question I have
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: in Indian Alabama is you know you have the whole
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: hot you know there used to be there was a
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: bit of a the It seemed as if we went
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: through a period in the eighties and nineties where the
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: team with the Heisman Trophy candidate usually lost. There if
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: they were playing a meaningful little game, usually lost. And
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: the assumption was, well, the player wasn't around as much.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: They were basically on the banquet circuit because if you
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: win the Heisman Trophy, it also means you likely win
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: a Davy O'Brien or you win the and there's all
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: these awards ceremonies, and yes they've consolidated it's somewhat into
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: one thing. But you're you're doing you're making more money
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: than you've ever made at any time, and appearance fees,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: maybe you're starting a business, maybe you're doing all sorts
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: of stuff. So you have the distraction issue that is
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: that is that never mind the overall distraction that every
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: players are facing with the portal being portal door opens
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: two days after the Miami game, one day after the
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: January first games, which is what's leading a lot of
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: people to assume that Old Miss gets just hammered by
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: Georgia because half those players are trying to figure out
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: what hour they should sign with LSU to transfer from
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss to LSU and follow Lane Kiffin. So the
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: two question marks I have in Alabama Indiana. One is
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: Kaylen de Bor is a great game planner, Okay, and
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: you can't deny that he's not the guy. You know,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: Alabama is better in bigger games than they are in
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: smaller games. So I you know, and you look at
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: Kaylen de Bor's record in playoffs at lower levels, how
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: he handled big games at Washington right, it did seem
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: as they he was a game planner. Indiana has some
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: significant injuries on defense, including the one where they lost
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: the lineman. Thanks to their celebration of the Big ten game,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: that's not an insignificant loss. So and the Rose Bowl.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: You know, this is the biggest stage Indiana's ever played on.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to keep saying that right wherever stage
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: they are, it's the biggest stage because and you know,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: look when you're when you're knocking on the door of
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: the elite club. Right Indiana Oregon, right, you certain certain
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: entities already. Alabama can lose and it won't matter to
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: their long term legacy. Indiana loses and suddenly is out.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: They couldn't play with the big boys right up. The
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: first time they face an SEC opponent, look what happens
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: to them. So the pressure's more in Indiana. Alabama's playing
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: with house money, just like the pressures more in Ohio State.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: Miami's playing with house money. The pressure's more on I
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: think on Texas Tech in the Texas Tech Oregon game
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: for what it's worth, because the Big twelve, right, you know,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: Miami got its win to prove it belong. The Big
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: twelve hasn't gotten its win by US win over Georgia
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: Tech is not the same as as Texas Tech knocking
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: off Oregon. And will I think Texas Tech is on
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: the level. I really do. But you got to see it, right,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: they're knocking on the door and they want in, and
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: the winner of Texas Tech Oregon has a better shot
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: of get letting the door than the loser does obviously,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: and then Georgia olemiss I think the I think I
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: am I am betting that that Georgia just sort of
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: smokes them, and it has more to do with distracted
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss players than it is debating whether one side
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: is better than the other. I just think it's simply, uh,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: George is better in general. And you're gonna have half
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: of the old Miss team thinking about it's uh how
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: how much money they're gonna get paid at LSU. So
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: we'll see. I am awfully confident if I I'll say
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: you where I am either blindly loyal to my my
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: homies uh in Coral Gables, or I am right about this,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: and that is I think. I think the point spread
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: on this is just ridiculous and absurd, and I think
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: this gets it to how perception. You know, again, a
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: point spread doesn't indicate whether these teams are close. It's
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: how the public regards them. And there is a belief
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: that Ohio State is a juggernaut and that Miami it
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: can all fall apart at any moment, right, And it's
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: all about recency bias, and Miami has fall has not
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: met the moment. Although I would argue that the Miami
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: teams in the last ten years wouldn't have won that
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: A and m game. This team seems different. We're going
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: to find out against Ohio State. But that's that nine
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: and a half point spread. I just don't buy it.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think that game this game is. If it's
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: more than one score, I'd be surprised. I think it's
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: going to be another slow game. I think it's going
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: to be another grinder, particularly in the first half. And
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: I will say this, I don't think Miami wins if
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: Ohio State scores more than twenty four points. I don't
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: know if Miami can score thirty one or twenty seven
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: or twenty eight. I think if Miami wins this game,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: it's because they win the game twenty four to twenty,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: twenty four to seventeen, twenty to seventeen. You see where
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: I'm going. That's that's my expectation on that. But I'll
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: tell you I'll say what I said at there. I
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: do think it's about time look to just letter rip.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: You're going to have to if we fall behind by
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: ten points. I want to see, you know, let Carson
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: Beck live or die with him, don't try to protect
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: him anymore. And I still think there's too much play
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: calling that's done to protect rather than simply to let
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: the chips fall where they may. All right, Um, I got,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: like I said, coming up, we'll have one more drop
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: this win. I got a couple of what ifs that
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: I am doing based on your feedback, two pretty big ones.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: One I've already told you that I'm gonna do about
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: twenty what if Trump wins a twenty twenty election. I'm
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: actually going to put two different what ifs into the
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: same episode there. I'm also going to do a Powerhouse
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: mail bag. We're going to go forty five minutes full
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: just questions. So, by the way, if you're listening now
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: and you want to get a question in under the
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: under the under the deadline, submit asap. So with that,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: thanks for your support, thanks for listening, and until we
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: upload again,