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The Favorites - Best Bets Wild Card Weekend · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time,
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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: We are heading into Super wild Card Weekend, folks, and
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: as always for every episode, I've got my bff, my companion,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Michael Padre, my co host Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: saw him in, Hello, Chad, Happy, wild Card Weekend, Brother,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: wild Card Weekend. Man. It would surprise everybody to know
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: that before we came on the air, you and I
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: we're having a very deep discussion about whether or not
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Shakespeare wasn't an amalgamation of people, if Homer was real,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: or if somebody was ghost writing him. That's what we
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: talked about on what used to be known as America's
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: most literate gambling podcast. Now we're just sucking the gins
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: and wise guys. That's right, that's it. That's all we are.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: We're not we're not talking conspiracy about big Foot or
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the lizard people. We're talking to Shakespeare and Homer. That's right.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We go deep. I have written seven books for bestsellers whatever.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Chad Milman wrote a book whatever the third grade level.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So we're the perfect combo together. We are totally average. Yeah,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: it's like a Buddy comedy from the nineteen eighties. So
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of line moves, a lot of news with
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, whether it be Skylar Thompson. We're not getting
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: clarity on that, which we didn't have recorded the other day.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: We're getting a little bit more clarity on the mar
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Jackson Tyler Huntley based on who've been practicing and what
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh was saying. We're going to break down that
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the Jags line has moved again since we recorded. There's
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: a lot to break down. Reminder, we went Ravens Foxhole
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: at six and a half. That line is now at
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. We went Simon says Jags one
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: and a half. That is now at two and a half,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Jacks plus two and a half. Exact decision was Bucks
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: two and a half and remained to two and a half.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Before we get to anything, I do want to ask
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: you one question, because you know we get a lot
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: of questions in the chat now that we're doing this
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: live on AMP and we're gonna get the sharp calls
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: and and the line moves and how we're adusting stuff.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: But in the chat, people have asked, how do you
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: change the inputs for your models as we get to
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, because you mentioned on the show the other
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: day that betting in the playoffs and making numbers in
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: the playoffs it's just different than it is during the
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: regular season. Fewer games, ten fewer games this week than
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: in the previous week. So can you explain to people
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: how you change your inputs. Yeah, it's changing the sense that, um,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go as big probably with my bets
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: in the week where it's like you have books, you're
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: gonna take more money in the playoffs. It's just it's
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: just much easier to get money down when you want
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: to get money down, especially where what is it eight
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: percent of the time seventy percent the time at least
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: in my career in the playoffs and always on almost
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: almost always on the side of the book needs. It's
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: just very rare that I'm with the book. But like
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: people know, this week, there's a couple of public favorites.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: I really like UM, and that's just historically they're profitable
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: in the wild card weekend. So every round I change
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: as well. Style like is the rounds go along, I'm
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: more likely to bet just home teams in general and
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: dogs where it's like, if it's a home dog in
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the next couple of rounds, it's people are gonna know.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: It's almost guarantee. I can't help myself because that model
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: is always gonna benefit that where home field might not
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: matter as much during the regular season, but playoffs the
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: day the data bears it out like that the one seeds,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: there's a reason math actically they make the Super Bowl
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the most. It's like they literally played two home games
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: and they get a bye week in the first round,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: so we had to update that all of your playoffs
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: stuff just because they got rid of the buyer for
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: the two seats. So yeah, for me betting UM, I
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: would say it's all about situational two where like that
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Ravens number. I mean, if I guarantee knew it was
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be hunted, I'd be all in on this game.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Like I just love everything about it. I even love
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: the line movement, like as much as people get scared
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: off that stuff. It's something we'll talk about. I love it.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: It's just like, all right, more value. I kind of
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: already factored in no more was gonna play, but I
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: did think in the back of my mind all the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: smart people we had listened to said little I was
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be back by now. So that's one of those
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: where it's like, yeah, playoffs. I tried to do as
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: much like trying not to go too crazy betting overboard
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: early in the week, but yeah, if it's a certain game,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I'll bet you know, it can end up being six figures.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: No problem. On a game where it's just like, okay,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I like this position, like the number, public keeps betting
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: the other way and whatever it is, and the line
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: keeps moving towards what I like, I'll just keep buying
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: it on those sides. But to me, my my biggest
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: betting weeks will always be Week one. Easy to get
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: the money down all through the summer all it's just
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: easy to get a lot of money down there, and
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: then Super Bowl. Super Bowl. They don't care anyone any
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: pro at any book you'll walk into, they will take
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: any type of bet you want to Super Bowl, they
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: might limit it, like write those prop bets. We all
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: know that. But yeah, for money wise, the biggest weeks
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: for me are always gonna be Week one and always
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: be the Super Bowl. It's just the easiest time to
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: get money down. If that's what people are wondering. Where
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: my my biggest bets usually coming at. When you're betting.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Let's say, let's take the Ravens and the Jacks, for example,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: rate let's move from six and a half to eight
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: and a half. We both bet it earlier in the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: week at six and a half. The Jags moved from
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: one and a half. It was that two and a half,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: moved down back to one and got to one and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: a half. We betted at one and a half. Now
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: with the two and a half, I'm assuming you bet
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: it again. I bet it again. Do you bet the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: same number of units when the nut when it goes up?
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Or do you bet more or do you bet less
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: same amount? But it comes Saturday, I might just load
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: up on it. But like right now, yeah, it's just
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: it's not I'm gonna call it feelers, So that's kind
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: of what it is. It's just like, alright, the number
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: moved against me, let me just get more down on
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: it before it drops down in case the pros coming
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: on the other side. It's one of those where it's
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: just a little bit of the game of there's always
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be professionals on the other side. We just talked
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: about their six games, so we're like, we're about to
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: do sharp calls. It's all gonna be all over the place.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: It's very rare where there's gonna be games we all
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: align on um just because it's the season of opinions.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I was gonna say, as Chatty wants to
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: do at the end of our show, we can run
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: through what we think are Super Bowl matchups and all
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: that stuff will be UM. But that's what this time
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: of year is. It's just forming opinions. And I always
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: joke with people it's very rare that it goes like
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: we all think, right, Eagles chief super Bowl, both one
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: seeds making it. Last year it was both four seeds.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I mean it was the Rams versus Bengals. I mean,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: tends to get a little weird here NFL. Mathematically it
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: just works out where if you're gonna make a bet
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the one seed, the math always says the back outside
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: just because they literally just won a game this weekend
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: and they didn't play, so that right there is a
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: huge advantage where every team here, like we're about to
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: talk about, it's another week and it's another chance to lose.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: That's why the numbers are always built into that where
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: you know, I feel like in most people minds right now,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: the four Niners and the Bills are the two teams
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: most people are gonna be picking right now. They're just
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: a hot team. So um, it's it's no surprise that
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: the betting markets kind of shifted that way, even though
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs are still the favorite overall. All right, well
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: let's talk about it. Let's get to shark calls. Hello,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking a lot of dirt throwing on
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: my name? No, I mean I didn't have a lot
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: of guys talking ship to me this week. They hated
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: my take with the Ravens. They they were like, why
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: are you guys taking that number when you don't know
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: what the quarterback situation was? And my view was, I
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: feel like the books hung that number knowing more in
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: front than me. I thought they hung in thinking. Okay, Lamar.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Every team doctor said it was a three to six
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: week injury. I believe this is technically week six or
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: week seven for this injury, so we assumed Lamar would
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: be back. And with Lamar back, that's an amazing number,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: especially where Joe Burrow he's pretty much torn up every defense.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: People look historically, the Ravens actually played pretty well against him.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Um just not even this year. But since he's coming
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: to the the league, so um, I nothing's gonna change for me.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: But it was interesting hearing that there are so many
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: pros that did come in on the sixth of the
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Bengals did coming on six and a half, did throw
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: them in a bunch of teasers, which we talked last year.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I thought the Ravens will cover this number. I just
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: don't think they'll win. Made perfect sense people teasing them down.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I still think it's not terrible if you want to
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: do it right, if it's eight and a half, or
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: do you want a six point teaser that's two and
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: a half, which we talk all the time. That's a
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: key number if you get under the three. So still
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: just it just reeks to me, everything about this line reeks.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I still think the bookmakers know what they're doing here.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Something something's fishy, something's off of this line. Um, so
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: that's nothing we're gonna talk about. Where I was shocked
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: to hear so many pros I love this Bengals line
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: where I just I don't know. I just as soon
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: as I saw this one open, it really it really
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: jumped out. So, uh, no shock on that one. The
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: one we're going against for sure against the pros is
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: they like the Seahawks. Um all the trends. There's a
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: bunch of stuff that backs it teams that have gotten
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: swept in the regular season and you're seeing the team
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs that favor of the Seahawks. Um, there's
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a bunch of trends against rookie quarterbacks making their first
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: start in the playoffs, A t s quarterbacks, Um, what
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: is it coming off five straight wins heading into the playoffs?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: A ts? Not good? Tons of trends, So I know
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: tons of trend better. So that's literally what they do.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: They just bet trends. They're not like me that it's
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: just all day in a computer and making calls. They
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: literally will run through their trends on Monday and Tuesday
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: and they'll be like, Okay, this is what the trends
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: say to do, and this is we'll do it because
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the playoffs are pretty simple. It's not you can go
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: back through the history tends to repeat itself to his
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: three in the playoffs, and that's where if you look
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: to the day of the books, they always have an
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: advantage of the public in the playoffs because of public perception.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: So of course it's it's very chocolate me too. Back
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: to fort Nins, I knew the guys would be on
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: their side. I'm shocked that enough money came in the
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: books moved it to nine and a half because that's
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: a key number that they moved it off the tent,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: so that that definitely made me pause. But honestly, none
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: of my picks change after all the sharp calls. That
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: was one though, that was more more obvious. I knew
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: that we were on the public side, and we talked
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: about that one shot. I feel like that's why I
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: thought you'd probably be on the Seahawks. Um. But yeah,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: they're all they're all pretty much like that Sehall's side. Um.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: That one we all lined up on was that Bills line.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: We got a little lucky and dropped the nine and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: a half off, like not just fake bad news, but
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: people just speculating, like speculating that two would be back. Um,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: people moved that number nine and a half, which was
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: an absolute gift if you're betting the Bills. UM call
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: it the news whatever he said. It was like five
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: minutes after Schef they had given it out, putting the
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: action app eleven and I think not even twenty minutes
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: after that, it was up to thirteen twelve and a
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: half in most books. Now it's settled in the thirteen
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half of the Bills. I told you
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: I made it that number with with this kid at
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the backup. That's the number I made it. Now you're
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: telling me they're starting tackles might be out or their
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: starting guard as well, it might be out. I dude,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: this might close for me like fifteen sixteen. Like this
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: number might just keep on moving because not only do
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: you have an inexperienced quarterback, now you're taking away an
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: offensive line. And I get I Von Miller is a
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: huge deal to this Bill's defense. Their weakness is kind
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: of against the run, like they're great at pass rushing.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: So to me, I I do get why this is
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the biggest line ever UM in football. But it was interesting,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: interesting here in the pros coming so heavy on the bills.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I saw some sharp groups come on the other side.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: They thought, okay, this to a news sounds good, that
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: too would be back. This week's pure speculation. They got caught,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: but I think most of them were able to buy
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: other positions. That's why that not to me. That's why
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: that number moved so heavily. Was anyone pro that had
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: come in on Miami bought out the position. That's why
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: it was just a double of public pros hit in
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the same side and guys by other position. So it's
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be scary because Miami is gonna be the biggest
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: need of the books this week. Um but it's nice
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to know that the pro's line up with us on
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: a chalky favorite. And I believe our our guy Evan
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: who you just put a lot of the trends um dogs,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I mean favorites of ten or more at home since
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: twenty sixteen and wild Card round five and one. I
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: guess it's spread, so it is good to take some
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: of the big chalk favorites in the wild card round. Yeah,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: it feels like this is a we've been seeing as
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: more and more there are just more blowouts in this round. Um, so,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: I think it's interesting that we're talking about the Bills.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: You and I talked about it the other day. We
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: texted like that line was sitting at twelve and a half.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I still felt good about it at twelve and a half.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I bet it at twelve and a half, I still
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: feel good about it. I think they might beat them
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: by thirty. You know, then we make our big balls.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: I feel like it's big balls for us to take
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: a third team point favorite here, huge balls for us
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: to take a thirteen point favorite. Well, let's I think
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: I think it may end up being that. I think
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: it's the because it's making mer but I'm not gonna
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: lie to you. Like I just hit it again at
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: thirteen because don't worry about going on thirteen a half,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: And I was just like, man, this is a massive favorite.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Like Josh Allen has red red zone turnovers. This could
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: be our Achilles heel here. But I just keep thinking
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: about this Bill's team not I don't. I hate saying
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: team at Destiny, but they got the vibes with their
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: fans of like this is setting up really nice for
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: them in every way. I mean, who knows what the
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: atmosphere is gonna be like there, but you can already
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: I think we all can agree it's going to be
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: absolutely mental at Orchard Park. And this is a rookie quarterback.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Like I can't get over the fact that this kid
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: is literally just being thrown to the wolves here, uh,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: with no offensive line either. It's just man, Miami is
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: just in a terrible spot. Well, look, there's so that
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: stat that rookie quarterbacks going against veteran quarterbacks in the
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: first last start fourteen and thirty five against spread. I
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: forgot when that year what it goes back to it? It
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: It might be I want to say, it's uh, oh two,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: but could be oh three using bet labs, right, yeah,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: it's using bad laughs. So it's a twenty year labs cut. Um.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: So look, let's just let's just do it. Big balls
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: better the week Buffalo Bills nearly two touchdown favorites. We're
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: going for it. We hate it, we're going for it.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Alert here. Josh Allen looks through and through every years,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: but there's last and there we gonna excuse me, cuts down.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen? Brutle anyone? There's
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: no fear, No one's still going demands to do something
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: about this album rages and I am making a louder
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: and louder. Yeah, like I'm been at all straight. This
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: isn't one of the like this one of the games.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: I threw in a teaser, But if you're still scared
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: of that number, you can tease it under the seven.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Still you can still do that. I get it, um,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: but I feel like Chad just nailed it. Just historically,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: the trends everything backs. You just take this number. It's
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: the quarterback position. That's what we talked all the time
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. The quarterback can overcome even bad coaching.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: And the playoffs where we saw that Aaron Rodgers. I
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: don't want to show Zach Taylor too much, but Joe
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Burrows talent so out of this world. I feel like
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: he's been carrying Zach Taylor for a while. It to me,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: it's just one of those wearing the playoffs. I rarely
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: rare to get these kind of opportunities because it's could
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: have been my homes right if they didn't get the
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: one seat, if the Bills had gotten in, and what
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: what would this line be? An arrowhead Miami going there
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: with this kid? It probably would be fourteen. So I
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: do think this line is still a little under value
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: because I really do neutral field Bills Chiefs. That's a
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: pick or might even be minus one towards the Bills.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: So um, to me, I still think you're getting great
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: value on this Bills team. You mentioned the Seahawks and Niners.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: It's interesting to me there's two games that I haven't
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: met yet, the Giants and the Vikings and the Seahawks
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: and the Niners. Because everything in my body says bet
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the Niners at nine and a half. But there's something,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: there's something that is holding me back. Yeah, it's like
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: it's the situation, the fact that it's going to be
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: shitty weather. It's a rookie quarterback against a veteran quarterback
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: even though its first first time in the class for both.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: The Seahawks are so undervalued, to see how the Flanders
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: are so overvalued. Everything about this to me says I
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: think I'm just gonna stay away. You can't. It's the playoffs. No,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: that's fair, there's no I see no advantage either way. Yeah,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: it's just tough where I do like I just gotta
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: stay a staunched in my belief that the league has
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: figured out gino. Uh, if you just look at his
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: numbers towards the tail end of the season, it was bad.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: You look at the three quarterbacks he beat in this
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: last half of the season, it was John Willford, Baker Mayfield,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: and then whoever the backup was to Arizona. So the
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: geno that's my biggest thing here, where it's like, if
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: if he was playing really well coming into this, it
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: would be a no brainer. Because it's literally like what
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Chad's talking about, which is given a weird feeling of
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: it's a divisional, it's the third time they've seen each other.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: They've already been swept, which is like all the math
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: backs out bank backing the team that just got swept.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Now they play each other in the playoffs. Um, but
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: it's just that that geno factor where it's like Brock Purdy,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna get caught. Like I mean, we
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: haven't given our super predictions here. I do think he's
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: eventually gonna get caught. It's just it's just it's a
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: lot to put on this kid's shoulders. I mean, in
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: these games I talked about, if you go back and look,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: he's been not only flawless. He's just running a really
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: smooth offense. Like guys in his face, he always makes
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: the right read. It's just been insane, especially when I
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: talked to like especially college pros who bet this kid,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: and like, I know, no, I honestly knew nothing really
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: about him there. They don't get it. They're like, dude,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: if you watched him in college, he had talent, but
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: this is like out of body experience right now for
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: this kid. So in this matchup where he has all
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the confidence in the world, they're at home, I'm gonna
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: take it, especially now it's under ten. I'm I'm still
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: gonna back it. But um, obviously, like you I just said,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: it's it's never a good feeling. I know. It's not
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: just one or two pros. It's a lot of pros
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: that are back in the Seahawks in this spot. They
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: liked this position. But I still think this is the
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: move here for me with a four in ire So
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: I'll be on four ours first half, I'll be on
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: fours first game, all game. It's just it's just a
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: spot I'd like to take them. Maybe next week I'll
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: go against it, right because everyone in the world's me
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: on them again against the Vikings and that or Giants
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: whoever they play Tampa Dallas UM, that will be the
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: time I'll go against them. But in this spot against
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks team that they've already climbed them outain they
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: won their super Bowl last week in overtime making the playoffs.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: I just good let down spot for them against the
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: team that's just better in every aspect. H Stuckey and
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Colin Wilson Big Bets on campus podcast Covent College Sports.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: They do our college football. They loved brock Purty at
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: Iowa State as long as was as long as it
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: was in October, called it bro October. Anytime it was
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: in October. They didn't like brock Purty um crazy ats
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: record in October or something. He just lit it up
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: in October. Like that's every year when I was saying,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: started sort of trending upward, and you know, would have
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: an upset, would play the game close in the Big twelve,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: and then come to November they'd fade like they always do.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Because it's Dietwa State. It's not like a big time program.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: But the Jacks opened to two and a half. We're
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. Got that down to one
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: and a half. H bounce back up? Why do you
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: think it bounced back up? I know why I still
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: love the Jags and betted again at two and a half.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Why do you still love the Jacks. I truly believe
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: it bounced back up because of Joey Bosa news. He
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: got full practice in so he is good to go.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: I think, to me, Joey Bosa, even if he's coming
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: off an injury this season, he's still to me worth
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: half a point, like it's he is an absolute game
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: record and they're down. I wouldn't say that one of
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the best left out was on football Jaguars there, they've
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: got issues on their own line like they've They've had
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: injuries this year. So the Joey Bosa back, he's full
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: on practicing this week. It's just it's bad. Um. Mike
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: Williams says still not practicing, So I'll take that that's
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a bonus. Um. I'm shocked that the pros like the
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Chargers here so much. It just feels like such a
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: public darling. I don't know. I'm not a sucker bet,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: but it's it does. It feels like a sucker bet. Yeah, Simon,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: we've faded the Chargers as favorites all season long. We're
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: fading the Chargers as favorites on the road in a
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: coaching mismatch, you know, Like I am, I am just
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: not a believer that Brandon Staley is widely like a fox.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: I think he's a wild card who sometimes makes incredibly
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: irresponsible decisions. And I think we saw it this past
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: week with how we used the roster and so um,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: I like, I like the Jags at home with Doug Peterson.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: It makes no sense to me. Yeah, And it's just
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: funny talking like this, just the fact that I got
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: I know, two really smart groups that came in on
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the Jag the Charges, I should say, at one, and
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: their whole view of it was, yeah, I could see
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars covering this number. But Herbert's not losing this
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: game like they got him winning a really close battle.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Their model makes it too, I make it a pick.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: So like to me, yeah, the value right now is
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: screaming on the Chargers, but I saw where they're coming from.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: If you go back and look through her, yeah, sorry
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: on the Jacks if you if you if you get
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: where I get where they're coming from. Like Herbert plays
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: close games, and those close games he tends to win them.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: And Trevor Lawrence on their side, we've seen him play
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: well this year, but if you go back and look
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: at the teams he did beat, there was always a
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: reason for that, either between injuries or whatever it was. Um.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I gets they have so many question marks around Lawrence,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: but I feel like what you're just talking about what
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: they keep overlooking, which is the coaching discrepancy. And this
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: is just major. Like Doug, he is such a weapon
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs, the fact that he's been through it
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: and he knows exactly we had to handle these kind
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: of moments. The guy is a rookie coach in the playoffs.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: He's never been a coach head coach in the playoffs.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: That's a big deal, eh, S wise, I don't know
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the exact data on it, but I know there's gonna
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: a descriptions there there has. It has to be tough
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: to be a first time head coach. Um. But to me,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I I'm hoping against the three, but I would be
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: shocked if it gets too three. Me. That's an easy
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: position in middle for most of these pros. Like if
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: you got the one on the Chargers, it's crossed two,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a key number, two and a half a key number.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Now it's hit three. That's crazy. So we'll see you
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: if it does hit three, that I will not glad you.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I'd be a little terrified if we If we're sitting
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: here Saturday night, it's just sitting on three. That means
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: the books really need the Jaguars, which would be a
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: little scary, just because you know, it's it's not ideal
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: when they're they're letting guys middle them moving that number
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: to such a key number. But I I wasn't surprised
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: that more guys weren't of the Jaguars. But it was
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: a sense that every pro I know for them parties
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers. I thought would be the same thing here,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: like a good home dog, a good spot with a
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: good coach. Um, this was a good spot to back
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: this Jaguars team. So in my leaking confidence a little
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: probably a little bit because it's like playoff time and
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: there's just a lot of noise in my head. But
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: this Jaguars team, I just never had a doubt I'd
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: be taking them. Um, the only way I would take
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the Chargers have been flipped and the Jaguars remind us
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: one favorites and that just neveryone's gonna be that way.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: The public is always gonna like the Chargers are always
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: gonna have an affinity for Herbert. Um, it's just s
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: h we're getting good value. We have to take the value.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: So two and a half. I'll take that every time.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Like I said, it just seems nonsensical to me. The
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: wise guys seem to be buying into a narrative that
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Justin Herbert is the second coming of the next great
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: quarterback and with Keenan Allen, they are a different team.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: We saw enough of the Jags. We went all in
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: on Doug Peterson. We did it right like before the
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: season started. We said, we believe Doug Peterson will be
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: able to do things with this team and this quarterback
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: to get them in a position to win the division.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened. And it started to click
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: in the latter half of the year. So no reason
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: to get off that Dougie pet train rent right now.
• 26:20
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Let's talk
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: about the Bucks. You mentioned the Bucks Love the Bucks
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: at two and a half Stucky in Raybound. We're talking
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: about it today on the Action Network podcast. You know,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I love to listen to it on Thursdays, and we
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: were already on the Bucks. Stucky was talking about the
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Bucks defense. We already had made some notes. We talked
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: about this on Green Dot Daily on Tuesday. We talked
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: about it in the podcast. Bucks Defense against the Past
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: plays to the weaknesses of Dak Prescott. They will get pressure.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: They allow, their top ten in in quarter back sacks,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: their top ten in total passing yards allowed, their top
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: ten in yards per past attempt, and then stuck. He
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: pointed out something when a Keen Hicks and Vitavera are
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: in the lineup at the same time. This team was
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: six and one this year, averaging under four yards per
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: rush allowed and averaging under sixteen points per game allowed.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Without those two nearly five yards per rush allowed and
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: nearly points per game. So I think we're getting a
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: pretty good matchup here against an offense with an offense
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: and Brady that I think was starting to peak in
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: the final few weeks of the year other than Atlanta game. Yeah,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: and only like we got a little bit of pushback,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: and the only pushback was, well, their stature skewed just
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: because they played in such a weak division. And I
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: said to them, well, they had guys missing time a lot.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: So Hicks was out for the amount of the season,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: like that's a lot of Yeah, I can get where
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: they're coming from. That does help obviously them playing in
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: a division where you look at the quarterbacks of the division. Yeah,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: it was an absolute train wrecord, Like dec is one
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: of the better quarterbacks they'll face all season. But if
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: you're going back and watch that film before he even
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: got hurt in that game earlier in the year, the
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Bucks just did exactly what Chad talked about. They had
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of pressure, which obviously Dad doesn't like. He
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: hates to be moved off his spot. Um and then
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: you saw him the secondary he just did was not
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: be able to move the ball against that really ferocious
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: defense the Bucks do have when they're healthy. We already
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: talked about the To me, the biggest thing is the
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: flip side where Cowboys secondary, they're just not what they
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: were in the year. They have so many injuries to
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: that position. And we already know Godwin's healthy, Mike Evans
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: is healthy, we expect Julio to play in this game.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Those are major weapons for Tom and we've seen Tom.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: If he finds a team with a little bit of weakness,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: he just all he does attack the weakness. He does
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: not care until he corrected, Tom just knows better. He'll
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: just keep attacking it. We saw against Carolina Mike Evans
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: he was literally in a coma for I don't even
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: know eleven weeks and he scored about three bombs in
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: that game, and it just felt like they kind of
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: found something there where Tom was just like, this is
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: here when I need this, This is always here. So um,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: matchup wise, we love it. We already talked about though
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: it's scary where this just feels too easy. It felt
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: too easy when I took the three, feels easy when
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: it's two and a half. So one of those Um,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I bet early in the week at three, I've taken
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: a little of two and a half and now I've
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: just been waiting where it's like this goes to two
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: by Monday, that's okay, I'll still take it there. I'll
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: just take the money online if it goes to three.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm hoping for. It's just hoping that the
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: public or whoever chases on the Cowboys come Monday night
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: and we get back up the three. So um, if
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: you already got the three or two and a half,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: it's one of those lines you just hang out on
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: wait until the game, wait until Monday. Not much you
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: do with it at this point last came to review.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: The only game we didn't spend a lot of time
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: on last time was the Giants and the Vikings. Uh,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: anyone call you about the Giants and the Vikings. I
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: think we like probably lean Giants, but don't feel strongly
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: about the Giants. Let's say, like a very very small
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: amount of rows are on the Giants. I'd say almost
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: most of the guys that talked to they just doing
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: the same thing we're doing. You're taking a veteran quarterback
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: against the guy who hadn't been the playoffs before, and
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: it's historically good where Daniel Jones this is if you're
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: a guy who's just been back in them all season,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: I think they're the best team a t S this season,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: the Giants. This is your dream. It's you. It's what
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: you've been betting all season. If you bet the Giants,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: it's everyone like me doubting Daniel Jones doubting the Giants.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: And I'm catching three points and they just somehow cover
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: the numbers, so um to me. I just like the
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Vikings in this spot. I like the number for them.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I like Kirk in the spot. Um, the Giants had
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: an incredible year. I just feel like it runs out
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: here but completely. This is why I didn't make it
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: one of our four anything like unique to it. All
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: the games, just the most hated tortras. Bet I'm making
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: because I want to bet Daniel Jones. I like the
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: I love these tight teams. Are just gritty as hell
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: and cover every number. Pray to what we think the
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Vikings are, which is absolute fraws and their way inflated,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: and then they should be just because Kirk had an incredible,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: incredible season in the fourth quarter. So um, that's why
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna back the Vikings, umost this whole playoff run
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: as long as they're in it, just because they just
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: feel like one of those teams that just knows how
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: to win, Like they know how to win ugly, they
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: know to keep games close. So two and a half
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: we already talked about two and a half automatic butt Vikings,
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: three and a half automatic bet Giants. It's just the
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: perfect number. At three. I'll just take the Vikings because
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: I like them at home. Here. By the way, we've
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: mentioned the luck rankings all season long on this podcast.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: I should tell you that the biggest discrepancy in the
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: luck rankings for the playoffs right now, UH the only
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: one that is more than sixteen point differential in UH
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: luck parameters, and that was a at higher than sixteen
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: points or more in differential was covering it like a
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: clip during the season Tampa Bay Dallas. So it's another
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: reason to take Tampa. Yep. Everything else it's interesting is
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: below ten, and so there's no real advantage below ten.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: But that was a big one, I would say, even
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: I would say when Cowboys fans could agree with that,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: where it's like they had a lot of close games
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: and a lot of bounces kind of go other way
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: where even when Dak put them in bad positions with
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: all the turnovers, they found a way. So that's why
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: it's like that the stat Evan put out about what
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: the hell was Brady being two and fourteen a t
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: s and his last UH sixteen night games. It's like,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: funk man, can I not see this stuff? Stop trying
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: to talk to me about this books one, I'm trying
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: to stay staunch where it's like I know this is
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: the number I have to take Brady here. Evan of
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: course is having Abrahams who runs all of our research
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: and is a true savant when it comes to betting information.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: By the way, I should say you and I waffling
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: on the Vikings Giants, you're taking a little piece of
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: the Vikings Raybon love the Giants on the Action Network
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: podcast Homer ha ha, I'm kidding. He's a pro, but
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: he is a Giants fan. Full disclosure. That's good. All right, Uh,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: let's see our big balls. We're going with the Bills
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: minus thirteen. You want to break up in the Ravens game, Well,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: we kind of did. Yeah, it's fair. I would just
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: saying everyone like, I'm still in on it. I'm still
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: in on the and a half, but we obviously need hunting.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: That's my biggest thing I wanted to say. It was
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: just if you've already bet it, don't keep betting it
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: every day, Like, don't be a psycho like me. Wait
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: until you get the keeping keeping uh notification wherever the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: news is on the quarterback positions, because it's a big deal.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I mean Huntley, I know he's not an all starting
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: like that, but if you go back, he keeps. He
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: kept them in most close games. He was able to
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: put drives together. Um, that would just be a big
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: deal for him playing in this game. So just keep waiting.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: I would say, if you're nervous about your position, just
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: tease out, do a teaser with the Bengals, get out
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: of it, whatever you want to do. Get down to
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: that two and a half. But I already told you.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: I just there's something about this line. Um. It's just
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: it's where we go through the wild card weekend without
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: at least one real upset, and this would be I
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: feel like all the other games, it wouldn't be really
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: an upset. Right if the Bucks one of the Jags,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: what I mean, it's under three, it wouldn't be shocking.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: I feel like the most people this would truly be shocking.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow losing here at home would be very shocking.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: So I'm just the reason I'm not giving out their
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: money line is just because I don't see it happening.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Like we talk all time, Joe Cool, it's just hard
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: to think this guy is not gonna win by a
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: field goal. It's just what he does. Um. But like
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: we said all the time, this is an inflated line.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Wm to wait too up. In the playoffs, everyone plays
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: tighter and when you have a dominant defense, which the
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Ravens do. You're always in it. You're always in it.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: And that's what I'm trying to keep in saying in
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: my head, where it's like they're gonna be in this
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: game because of that defense, and that's really what we're
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: back in here. So injuries again are mounting for that
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: that Bengals team. On the flip side, the Ravens defense
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: haveve only gotten healthier to this point. This is HEALTHI
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: if they've been all seasons. So that's that's what we're
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: back in. We're back in this Ravens defense. You can
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: following the action. Apple, I bettered at six and a half.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: I bet it again at seven and a half. Of
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: course it went up to eight and a half. I
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: haven't better at eight and a half just because I
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: feel like I got it at seven and a half.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna wait on the news for Huntley. Like
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: you said, Um, the Foxhole bet for us was the
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: raven six and a half. Now we'll just say it's
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Raven's eight and a half. Uh, Simon says, was Jack's
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: plus one and a half. Clearly you like it at
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: two and a half. And the exact decision was the
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: Bucks plus two and a half. Um, I think that's everything. Yeah,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: just enjoy people. This is at six games. Next week's
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: four week after that. To than one enjoy it. Most
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: games will have the rest of the year. It's really
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: going to be an amazing super wild card two words weekend. Uh.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman. He is Simon Hunter for producer
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Extraordinary Matt Mitchell downloads from Apple podcast from Spotify wherever
• 37:56
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• 37:58
  Speaker 1: five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Listen all the way through until next time. I love you. Yeah.
• 38:11
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