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Gators vs Dawgs: There's an HIDDEN Truth About Florida Georgia? · A Peek Inside Gators Football: A Show About the Florida Gators

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to A Peek Inside Gator Football. Allie Peek here.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: This video is brought to you by PrizePix. Don't forget,
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• 0:12
  Speaker 1: get $ 150 in lineups instantly. What if I told you
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: that Florida and Georgia are separated by just 19 yards
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: of total offense per game? Or that when you look
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: strictly at SEC competition... the Bulldogs are scoring fewer than
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: two points more per game than the Gators are. And
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  Speaker 1: what if I told you that there are actually a
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  Speaker 1: few statistical categories where Florida has the advantage heading into
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: this rivalry matchup? Now, don't get me wrong. Georgia is
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  Speaker 1: ranked third in the country for a reason. And when
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  Speaker 1: you start digging into defensive statistics, you quickly understand why
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  Speaker 1: the Bulldogs are favored. But There are some numbers that
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  Speaker 1: suggest Florida has an opportunity to make this a much
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  Speaker 1: more competitive game than I think some people might expect.
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  Speaker 1: So today I've got 10 statistics that could help determine
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  Speaker 1: the outcome of Florida-Georgia. We're going to look at where
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  Speaker 1: the Bulldogs have the advantage, where the Gators might have
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  Speaker 1: an edge, and what Coach Summerall's team needs to do
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  Speaker 1: to pull off another upset. Let's start with total offense.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia is averaging... 469.9 yards per game. Florida is averaging 450.9
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  Speaker 1: yards per game. That's just a 19-yard difference. And when
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  Speaker 1: we look at scoring, Georgia averages 43 points per game
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  Speaker 1: compared to Florida's 39.6. But here's where this gets interesting.
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  Speaker 1: Both programs opened the season with two non-conference games against
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  Speaker 1: substantially less challenging competitions. So what happens when we remove
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  Speaker 1: those games and look strictly at SEC play? Well, Georgia's
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  Speaker 1: averaging 33.6 points per game against conference opponents. Florida's averaging 31.8.
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  Speaker 1: That's just a 1.8 point per game difference. Now, those
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  Speaker 1: numbers are not adjusted for opponent strength, and I do
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  Speaker 1: think that matters. But it challenges the idea that Georgia's
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  Speaker 1: offense is operating on some completely different level than Florida's.
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  Speaker 1: Florida has already scored 44 against Auburn and 52 against
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  Speaker 1: Ole Miss. This offense is capable of putting up points.
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  Speaker 1: The question is whether it can do that consistently against
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  Speaker 1: the best defensive competition in the conference. Statistically, Georgia's biggest
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  Speaker 1: advantage isn't necessarily what it's producing on offense. It's what
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  Speaker 1: its defense is preventing. We're going to get to that.
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  Speaker 1: Let's go to my number nine. Georgia is averaging... 197.7
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  Speaker 1: rushing yards per game. Florida's averaging 194.3. That's a difference
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  Speaker 1: of just 3.4 yards per game. The running game is
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  Speaker 1: almost identical. And it's particularly interesting when you consider the personnel.
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  Speaker 1: Florida has Jaden Baugh, who has already demonstrated that he
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  Speaker 1: can take over football games. He helped power a Florida
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  Speaker 1: rushing attack that produced 302 yards against Ole Miss. And
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  Speaker 1: the Gators rushed for 243 against Auburn. Here's the problem.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia only allows 91.4 rushing yards per game. And that
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  Speaker 1: is one of the biggest challenges Florida's offense is going
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  Speaker 1: to face. However, there is a potential blueprint. Auburn, just
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  Speaker 1: a week ago, ran for 192 yards against Georgia in
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  Speaker 1: the only loss on the Bulldogs schedule so far. So
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  Speaker 1: we've seen that Georgia's defense isn't completely invulnerable to the
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  Speaker 1: running game. For Florida, establishing ball early and getting production
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  Speaker 1: from the quarterback run game could be essential. The Gators
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  Speaker 1: don't necessarily have to rush for 200 yards, but they
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  Speaker 1: can't become one-dimensional against this Georgia defense. Number eight, Georgia's
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  Speaker 1: first quarter dominance. This next stat is maybe the most
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  Speaker 1: impressive of the entire matchup. Georgia has outscored its opponents 87-14-10.
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  Speaker 1: in the first quarter this season. Y'all, 87 to 14.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia has made a habit of putting opponents in an
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  Speaker 1: early hole, and that is exactly what Florida cannot afford
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  Speaker 1: to have happen. We saw Georgia jump out to a
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  Speaker 1: 14-0 lead against Auburn, but we also saw Auburn respond
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  Speaker 1: with 24 consecutive points and eventually win that game. I
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  Speaker 1: think there's a valuable lesson there for Florida. This team
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  Speaker 1: can't allow Georgia's early momentum to dictate the entire game.
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  Speaker 1: But Florida has a blueprint for that too because of
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  Speaker 1: what they did last week. They fell behind 17-3 to Texas.
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  Speaker 1: And rather than unraveling, the Gators fought their way back.
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  Speaker 1: I think that's encouraging. But against Georgia, I'd much rather
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  Speaker 1: see Florida play from ahead or at least keep things
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  Speaker 1: close early. If Florida can get through the first quarter
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  Speaker 1: without giving Georgia a two-score advantage, I think that changes
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  Speaker 1: the complexion of this matchup. Number seven, let's look at
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  Speaker 1: yards per play. Georgia averages approximately 7.7 yards every offensive snap.
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  Speaker 1: Florida averages about 6.3. Now, that may not sound like
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  Speaker 1: an enormous difference, but over the course of a football game,
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  Speaker 1: it is significant. Georgia is more efficient per play. They've
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  Speaker 1: generated more total offense while running considerably fewer plays. The
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  Speaker 1: Bulldogs have run 428 offensive plays this season, and Florida's
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  Speaker 1: run 500. So Georgia's producing more yardage with fewer opportunities.
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  Speaker 1: That reflects how efficiently its offense moves the football. And
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  Speaker 1: Gunnar Stockton is a major part of that. He's completing
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  Speaker 1: just over 74% of his passes with 16 touchdown passes
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  Speaker 1: and only four interceptions. Florida cannot allow Georgia to consistently
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  Speaker 1: generate big chunks of yardage, especially on early downs. The
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  Speaker 1: Gators need negative plays. They need tackles for loss and
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  Speaker 1: pressure that forces Georgia out of its offensive rhythm. If
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  Speaker 1: Stockton's consistently facing second and short and third and manageable,
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  Speaker 1: it's going to be a long afternoon for this Florida defense.
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  Speaker 1: Number six, the stat I'm looking at is third down efficiency.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia converts 53.9% of its third down opportunities. Florida converts 44.6%.
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  Speaker 1: That is a fairly significant difference. And on the defensive side,
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  Speaker 1: Georgia allows its opponent to convert just 35.9% of the time.
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  Speaker 1: Florida allows 43.7%. Georgia has definitely been better at keeping
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  Speaker 1: its own drives alive and getting off the field defensively.
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  Speaker 1: But there is some encouraging news for the Gators. Against Texas,
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  Speaker 1: Florida held the Longhorns to just two third-down conversions on
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  Speaker 1: 10 attempts. And on the other side of the ball,
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  Speaker 1: Florida converted eight of its 11 third-down opportunities in the
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  Speaker 1: second half. That is exactly the kind of complimentary football
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  Speaker 1: that Coach Summerall needs against Georgia. Getting Georgia off the
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  Speaker 1: field gives Florida's offense more opportunities and prevents the Bulldogs
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  Speaker 1: from controlling the game. If Florida's defense plays the way
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  Speaker 1: it did in Austin, these season-long numbers, they might not
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  Speaker 1: tell the whole story. And that's the version of the
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  Speaker 1: Gators that we're going to need on Saturday. Guys, I'm
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: going to take a quick break from this video to
• 7:12
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• 7:15
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  Speaker 1: there's another audio platform I should be on and I'm not,
• 7:20
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• 7:22
  Speaker 1: consistently asked for this the last season, season and a half.
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• 7:33
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• 7:35
  Speaker 1: over there. I have been dropping immediate game reactions on
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: audio only. So like when I'm walking out of the
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: stadium or if it's an away game and I'm at home,
• 7:44
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• 7:46
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• 7:48
  Speaker 1: subscribed before Saturday because I will definitely drop one Saturday night.
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  Speaker 1: Number five, Florida has the time of possession advantage. This
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  Speaker 1: is a statistic that favors the Gators. Florida averages 33
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  Speaker 1: minutes and 10 seconds per possession per game. Georgia averages
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  Speaker 1: 30 minutes and 32 seconds. That's nearly a three-minute advantage
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  Speaker 1: for the Gators. And against Texas, that advantage was even
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  Speaker 1: more dramatic. Florida held the football for 38 minutes and
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  Speaker 1: 11 seconds. Texas possessed it for just 21 minutes and
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  Speaker 1: 49 seconds. Florida ran 81 offensive plays compared to Texas's 50.
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  Speaker 1: And here's why I think that matters so much against Georgia.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia has an extremely efficient offense. One way to limit
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  Speaker 1: that efficiency is to limit the number of possessions it gets.
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  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean Florida should become overly conservative, but sustaining drives,
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  Speaker 1: converting third downs, and keeping the Georgia defense on the
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  Speaker 1: field could be a major part of the Gators' formula
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  Speaker 1: for success. Time of possession doesn't automatically win football games,
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  Speaker 1: but when it helps protect a defense that has struggled
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  Speaker 1: at times this season, it can become extremely valuable. My
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  Speaker 1: number four is Florida's red zone advantage. Here's another area
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  Speaker 1: where the Gators actually have a statistical edge. Florida has
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  Speaker 1: scored on 31 of their 33 red zone attempts this season.
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  Speaker 1: That is a 93.9% scoring rate. Georgia has scored on
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  Speaker 1: 31 of 34 opportunities, good for a 91.2%. So Florida
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  Speaker 1: has been slightly more reliable at coming away with points
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  Speaker 1: once it gets inside the 20. But there's an important distinction.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia has scored touchdowns on 28 of those 34 trips.
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  Speaker 1: Florida has scored touchdowns on 25 of those 33 trips.
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  Speaker 1: So while Florida has a slightly better overall scoring percentage,
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  Speaker 1: Georgia has been better at finishing drives with seven points
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  Speaker 1: instead of three. And against a team like Georgia, that
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  Speaker 1: distinction matters. Florida cannot afford to repeatedly settle for field
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  Speaker 1: goals after driving deep into Bulldogs territory. If the Gators
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  Speaker 1: are going to pull off this upset, They're probably going
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  Speaker 1: to need touchdowns when those opportunities present themselves. Georgia's defense
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  Speaker 1: doesn't give opponents very many chances. So if you have
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  Speaker 1: that chance, you have to take advantage. Number three is penalties.
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  Speaker 1: It could be a major problem. This statistic really concerns me.
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  Speaker 1: Florida is averaging 74.6 penalty yards per game and Georgia's
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  Speaker 1: averaging 52.9. That's a difference of nearly 22 yards per game.
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  Speaker 1: And we've talked about Florida's penalties before on this channel.
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  Speaker 1: It's not just the yardage. It's when those penalties are occurring.
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  Speaker 1: A holding curl that wipes out a big game. A
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  Speaker 1: false start that turns third and short into third and long.
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  Speaker 1: A defensive penalty that extends an opponent's drive. Against a
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  Speaker 1: Georgia team that's already extremely efficient offensively and defensively, those
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  Speaker 1: mistakes are magnified. Florida cannot afford to give Georgia additional
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  Speaker 1: opportunities to put its own offense behind the chains. The
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  Speaker 1: Gators have demonstrated that they can compete with highly ranked teams,
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  Speaker 1: but beating Georgia is going to require the kind of
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  Speaker 1: discipline and execution that Florida hasn't consistently demonstrated this season.
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  Speaker 1: Number two, the passing defensive gap is huge. Georgia allows
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  Speaker 1: just 185 passing yards per game. Florida allows 255. That
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  Speaker 1: is a 70-yard difference. And when you combine that with
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  Speaker 1: Gunnar Stockton completing more than 74% of his passes, you
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  Speaker 1: can understand why this matchup is concerning. Georgia's offense is efficient.
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  Speaker 1: Its quarterback protects the football. And Florida's secondary has struggled
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  Speaker 1: at times this year. But let's talk about what happened
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  Speaker 1: against Texas. Florida entered that matchup near the bottom of
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  Speaker 1: the country in pass defense. and then held Texas to
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  Speaker 1: just 173 passing yards in the official box score. The
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  Speaker 1: Gators also recorded five sacks. That was a dramatically different
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  Speaker 1: defensive performance than what we saw against Missouri and South Carolina,
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  Speaker 1: and I don't think that should be ignored. Now, one
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  Speaker 1: performance doesn't erase the previous six games, but if the
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  Speaker 1: adjustments made by Brad White and the approved execution by
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  Speaker 1: Florida's players are sustainable, the Gators could be a much
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  Speaker 1: better defensive team than their season-long statistics are suggesting at
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  Speaker 1: the moment. The question is whether Florida can reproduce that
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  Speaker 1: effort against Georgia. The Gators are going to have to
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  Speaker 1: make Stockton uncomfortable. They cannot allow him to sit comfortably
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  Speaker 1: in the pocket, complete passes at will, and control the
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  Speaker 1: pace of this football game. Number one, the biggest difference
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  Speaker 1: between these teams, this is the single most important statistic
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  Speaker 1: in the entire matchup. Georgia allows 15.9 points per game.
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  Speaker 1: Florida allows 28.3. That's a difference of more than 12
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  Speaker 1: points per game. And when you look strictly at SEC competition,
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  Speaker 1: the gap becomes even more significant. Georgia is allowing 17.6
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  Speaker 1: points per conference game. Florida is allowing 34.8. That's a
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  Speaker 1: difference of more than 17 points right there. And I
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  Speaker 1: think that tells us almost everything we need to know
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  Speaker 1: about why Georgia's ranked number three in the country and
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  Speaker 1: why the line on this game is what it is. Offensively,
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  Speaker 1: these two teams are producing relatively similar numbers. But defensively,
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  Speaker 1: Georgia has been dramatically more consistent. Georgia held Alabama to
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  Speaker 1: 17 points. It held Oklahoma to 13. It held Vanderbilt
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  Speaker 1: to 14. And even in the loss to Auburn, Georgia
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  Speaker 1: only surrendered 27. Florida, meanwhile, has allowed 45 to Missouri,
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  Speaker 1: 38 to South Carolina, and 39 to Auburn. That's the challenge.
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  Speaker 1: And it's why Florida's defensive performance against Texas was so important.
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  Speaker 1: That was the first time in several weeks that we
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: saw a defense capable of complimenting this offense against a
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  Speaker 1: highly ranked opponent. If Florida is going to beat Georgia,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: the Gators cannot depend on winning a shootout. They need
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: to play complimentary football. They need to control possessions. And
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: they need to limit explosive plays. And they need to
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  Speaker 1: make Georgia earn every point. So when you put all
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  Speaker 1: 10 of these statistics together, here's my biggest takeaway. Florida
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  Speaker 1: doesn't need to become an entirely different team to compete
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  Speaker 1: with Georgia. The Gators have already shown that they can
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  Speaker 1: move the football, run effectively, control possession, and convert critical
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  Speaker 1: third downs. But what they need to do is eliminate
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  Speaker 1: the self-inflicted mistakes. They need to finish drives with touchdowns and,
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  Speaker 1: probably most importantly, build on what their defense accomplished against Texas.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Georgia absolutely deserves to be favored. The Bulldogs have been
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the more consistent team, particularly defensively. But Auburn proved that
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  Speaker 1: Georgia can be beaten. and Florida proved against Texas that
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  Speaker 1: this team is still capable of beating elite competition. For
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: John Summerall, a victory over Georgia in his first season
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  Speaker 1: would mean far more than a number in the win column,
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  Speaker 1: for sure. It would signal that the Gators' turnaround is
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: moving faster than almost anybody expected. And maybe the most
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: important statistic of all isn't where these two teams have
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: been through seven games. It's which version of Florida shows
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  Speaker 1: up for game number eight. If the Gators, who beat Texas,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: show up in Atlanta, I think Georgia is going to
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: have a much bigger fight on its hands than some
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: people are expecting. But now I want to hear from you.
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  Speaker 1: What statistic do you think matters most in this matchup?
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Is it Florida's ability to run the football, Georgia's defensive advantage,
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  Speaker 1: or whether the Gators can build on their performance against Texas?
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Let me know down in the comments. I want to
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: hear about it. You know I am a stats girl,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: a stats nerd. I love all of this stuff. So
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: I want to hear your opinion on this. I appreciate
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: you guys so much for tuning in. Please make sure
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: you're subscribed to the channel. I was looking at my
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: analytics the other day. 52% of the people that watch
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: this channel on a regular basis aren't subscribed. Go ahead
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: and hit that button right this moment. Also, a big
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: thank you to PrizePix. Don't forget, new users can download
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the app, play a $ 5 lineup, use our code. It's HMA.
• 15:49
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• 15:53
  Speaker 1: appreciate PrizePix for their support. I appreciate you guys for
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: tuning in. And as always, go Gators.