Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 366 - 10/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 366 - 10/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 366 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday. Our work week has come to an
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end, but we got a lot to get to on the final part of the week
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here, guys. A lot of football talk, wall to
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wall pro and college football. We do have a huge slate, bigger
0:47
than usual. Seven games overall.
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A couple of them are added game extra games, but really five
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major games here for Friday Night Lights.
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And I did find 2 plays that caught my eye and pretty much
0:58
fit the model in terms of sharp line movement, good splits, good
1:02
system matches. So I do have a 2 pack and the
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good thing is ones at 7 and ones at 10.
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So you don't have to kind of watch them and sweat them
1:08
simultaneously. But a couple plays in college
1:10
football here for tonight and then we're going to unveil our
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final best bet card for the weekend.
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So 6 plays overall, 3 in college football for Saturday, 3 in the
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NFL for Sunday. So looking forward to breaking
1:22
down all of these and hopefully steaming into the weekend on a
1:26
hot note. Now, I do want to say thank you
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to everyone who tuned in to the rhythm rundown last night.
1:31
I'm trying to mention promote as much as I can, but every
1:33
Thursday if you got nothing to do 6:00 PM Eastern Time, go
1:36
right on Twitter. You'll see a little icon, my
1:39
profile icon go live. You jump right in myself, my
1:42
buddy K Harper from rhythm breakdown, the games and and
1:47
really kind of show you how to use rhythm to your advantage.
1:49
So remember, rhythm does a great job of powering this pod.
1:52
I want to give Rhythm a shout out because even though it was a
1:56
not a great night for myself for a couple reasons here, it was a
1:59
good night for Rhythm because Rhythm nailed Puka Nakua under
2:03
receiving yards and also nailed the 49ers plus the points.
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And I knew we were getting a little bit nervous.
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Like officially last night guys. Owen 1 - 1 unit only play was
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Ram San Francisco under and I thought we might be able to eke
2:16
out with a 23 to 20 win. But the annoying part was the
2:21
survivor play. So I did take and I'm dead.
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I'm come I'm dead now guys, I'm talking to you as a dead man.
2:28
I had Rams in survivor. I wasn't the only one.
2:31
I noticed a tweet earlier from circa 30% of circa survivor died
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last night on the Rams. Short week great great angles
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here on a short week Thursday night favorites winning the game
2:44
yet all these injuries for San Fran guys, this is this is
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sports for you Rams lose the game outright.
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The annoying part was that Kyron Williams had a rush where he
2:54
fumble at the goal line would have given the Rams a 2723 lead
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and would have won the game at that point.
3:00
It would have you know, lost the the under under ended up losing
3:04
anyway because it goes to overtime.
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But obviously Kyron Williams fumbling was absolutely brutal
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for us in survivor. But I do want to give again, a
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shout out to Rhythm because they were highlighting the points
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with San Fran. And this is these are always
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kind of the toughest games for me to cap, which is why I don't
3:19
really like taking any kind of position on the side because
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anytime you see injuries and a huge line move on the one hand,
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it's like, man, Rams are in a big advantage.
3:29
San Fran's down starting quarterback, by the way, Mac
3:31
Jones played his his ass off. So that was frustrating to see
3:35
as a Patriots fan because I remember Mac Jones doing nothing
3:38
but losing and throwing picks and he played pretty much the
3:40
game of his life last night. Also, Kendrick Bourne used to be
3:43
a Patriot. He he lit up everybody as well.
3:46
But the late movement did break back towards San Fran.
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So San Fran at one point was as high as plus 9 + 8 1/2.
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They got down to 7 1/2. So late movement was breaking
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back toward the 49ers. But these are always the hardest
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games to cap for me because again, injuries cause a huge
4:03
line move. And then the question is, you
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know, do you play the line move or do you play the sell high or
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buy low on the inflated dog? And I think there's no easy
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answer. Like for example, in the we
4:14
talked about this yesterday, but the Denver Broncos game on
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Monday night, huge line move toward the Broncos, then up
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rolling, huge line move toward the Rams.
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They lose out, right? So again, sometimes that
4:24
happens. But if you did tune into the
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rhythm rundown and you did play San Fran, Congrats to you.
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That was a pretty sharp play. So I lost my under 43 1/2.
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I'm dead in survivor. And to make matters worse, just
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rooting as a fan, my Red Sox lose my season's over for the
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for baseball. So sometimes you win, sometimes
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you lose. We had a three day winning
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streak going unfortunately last night, really nothing went our
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way. But again, congratulations to
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anyone who did take the points there with San Fran that that
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took took some guts. And again, Mac Jones, he's
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hyperventilating, you know, fate, faking injuries, crying on
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the sideline. At one point his pants were
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ripped off, dragged down to his, you know, past his butt.
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He looked like a complete slob and just, you know, squid lying
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on the ground. But give the kid credit played
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well, one out right, But I did not see that coming.
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So unfortunately, if you did lose survivor, you're not the
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only one. A lot of sharps, a lot of people
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at visa and I work with also had the ram survivor.
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So with that being said, hey, let's move on.
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Let's not, you know, kind of kill ourselves over it.
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Let's just try to see if we can bounce back here for today.
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So looking toward the slate for tonight guys.
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Again, there's no MLBMLB is taking a day off.
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All the second round series start tomorrow.
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But we do have a loaded college football slate and I got 2 plays
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for you. So first one overall, 7:00 PM
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Eastern Time, Western Kentucky and Delaware setting the stage
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here. Western Kentucky four and one
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just outlasted Missouri State, 27 to 22 covered as a 3 1/2
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point Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, Delaware, the Blue
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Hens three and one on the year, just crushed FIU 38 to 16 easily
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one outright as a 4 1/2 point Rd. dog.
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So what do you see across the market here?
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Well, this game opened most shops.
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Delaware as low as a 2 point favorite at home.
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Some shops even as low as like 1 1/2.
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We've seen nothing but movement toward the Blue Hens.
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Blue Hens have gotten steamed up -2 up to -2 1/2.
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If you pay a little close attention here to the juice,
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it's still juiced up on the Delaware side.
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So it doesn't look like it's getting back down to two.
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If anything, looks like it's moving up toward 3 because you
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got Delaware -2 1/2 -, 115 -, 120.
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Couple shops are even at 3. So it's pretty clear here line
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is moving toward Delaware. And what I like about Delaware
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in the spot is that it's not a public play.
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It's also not a reverse line move, but it's basically a 5050
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line move. And we talked about this quite a
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bit. But when you look at the split
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tick account here, it's 50% bets on on the spread on Western
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Kentucky, 50% on Delaware, literally right down the middle.
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So in a vacuum you would assume tickets are even.
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You probably shouldn't see a line move either way.
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Maybe the juice gets adjusted a few cents, but you shouldn't see
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the line move because theoretically, in a vacuum, odds
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makers have balanced action. No need to adjust the price one
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way or the other. The fact that we have seen this
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line move toward Delaware even though the tickets are split
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tells me even though the public is undecided, big money here is
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going with Delaware. So like Delaware in the spot
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5050 line move, I'm going to play Delaware on the money line
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again. Short number -2 1/2.
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I was able to find Delaware -138 at FanDuel again.
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Most books are -140 -, 145, but I'm just going to try to protect
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myself. Crazy things happen in college.
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I hate to see Delaware again. They opened at -2 Let's say they
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win by two. You lose your bet if you lay a 2
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1/2. So there's a money line play for
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me. I do like the splits on the
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money line. Only about 20% bets, but nearly
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40% of the money is on the Delaware money line.
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You also have a rest advantage here.
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Delaware is coming off a bye week, so they didn't play last
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week, whereas Western Kentucky played last week and now is
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playing their second straight Rd. game.
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So hopefully that's a built in advantage here in favor of
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Delaware. Delaware also has some
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correlative betting value. I don't talk about, you know,
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favorite low totals, sorry, favorite high totals very much
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typically we're talking dog low totals.
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Historically you see a low total, it's harder for the
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favorite to cover benefits the dog.
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Well, this is a pretty high total.
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Total is 61 1/2 and it's even juiced up over like it may get
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to 62. Why is that important?
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Because when you are a very short favorite -2 1/2 and a
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super high total, that's typically a good thing because
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more expected point scored theoretically easier for the
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favorite to cover that number. Lastly, I did notice a 16% sharp
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mush edge in favor of Delaware from our friends at Juice Rail.
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So I'm going with the Delaware Blue Hens here.
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Again, it's not like you know, George, Alabama.
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It's kind of a lower tier matchup, but it is I believe on
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CBS Sports Network and we have seen clear one way movement
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toward Delaware with a good rest advantage, good splits, good
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sharp mush edge, correlative favorite high total.
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My first play of the night, Delaware to win the damn game.
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I got the Blue Hens at -138 that's still available at
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FanDuel. But again, shop around because
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some books now as high as -145 but let's go Delaware next one
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for you, New Mexico and San Jose State. 10:00 Kick off here
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tonight on the West Coast we have New Mexico coming in three
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and one just beat New Mexico State 38 to 20, took care of
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business, covered as a 16 1/2 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, San Jose State one and three just came up short
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against Stanford 30 to 29, but did cover as a three-point Rd.
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dog. So what have you seen across the
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market here? Will this game open San Jose
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State? Listed as a three-point home
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favorite and the public is leaning towards San Jose State,
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even though San Jose State has the worst record.
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It's a short number at home, probably, probably doesn't
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believe in New Mexico. And they're saying, hey, San
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Jose State covered last week. It's a short number.
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They'll get back on track here at home, laying a short chalk
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price. However, even though you're
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getting 54% of spread bets on San Jose State, this line is
10:04
actually falling toward New Mexico.
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You've gone from San Jose State -3 down to -2 1/2.
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Tells me we got some sneaky reverse line movement public San
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Jose State but line going to New Mexico.
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Good splits at DraftKings New Mexico.
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Only 46% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars.
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So a good low bets, higher dollar split.
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Some system matches here, short Rd. dogs getting 4 or less.
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They're 53% against the spread. 3% ROI since 2021.
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Friday night Rd. dogs 7 and one ATS this year. 67% ATS since
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2024 New Mexico would be a dog who can score system match
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they're averaging 30 points per game so hopefully increasing the
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chances that they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
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Now here's the key pretty clear here.
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Smart money going toward New Mexico public San Jose State
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line falling but really important here to get the three.
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Now most books are not offering three right now but if you look
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for a a side that is juiced down.
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We always talk about being juiced up, but if juiced down on
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New Mexico, I bought this thing up to 3.
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So I did find that Fanatics has New Mexico plus 2 1/2 at +100.
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So for $0.20 I took New Mexico up to 3.
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So I am on plus 3 -, 120. Typically, I'm not going to buy
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a half point unless it's around a key number here.
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I'm going to protect myself. So if Mexico loses by three,
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three is the most common key number, most common method of
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scoring other than the touchdown.
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So I want to make sure that if I lose by three, I push my bet
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instead of lose my bet. So I did buy up New Mexico again
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from Fanatics plus 2 1/2 + 100 to +3 at -120 and another
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advantage here, hopefully two things.
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One is that Rhythm has New Mexico plus 0.2 and plus 0.1.
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So basically a pick em game and you can get a three again if you
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buy it up 2 1/2 if you want to save some juice, but that's a
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pretty good edge. Basically a pick em game and
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you're getting 3 points. And then a little cherry on top
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when I popped open Juice Reel and I looked at the Robo Jackson
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2 best bet picks that come out each day at noon.
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One of the two is on New Mexico here, so add it all up.
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We got public leaning San Jose State, but line is dropping
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toward New Mexico. We got some good splits here
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again, you can buy them up to three, which is what I did to
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protect myself on a three-point loss that would put lose instead
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of push. And we got again rhythm about a
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pick em game and the best bet here, which means that juice
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rail, it's gone through all their AI models and predictions
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and they're saying, hey, take take New Mexico.
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So I am taking the Lobos New Mexico again.
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I bought them up plus 3 -, 120. You can wait.
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Although I'm starting to see a lot of these juice prices even
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out. Even I see one book down to 2.
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So if you want to get it up to three again, fanatics and I
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think ESPN bet was also plus 2 1/2 at +100.
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I won't buy points unless it's around a key number and I'm not
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going to go past -125 So really I'm only going to do it if
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you're like plus 100 or -1 O 5 to take you up to -120 or -125.
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But 2 plays for me guys. Delaware hopefully to win the
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damn game on the money line and New Mexico took him up to +3.
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Those are the 2 plays for tonight.
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Can we get at least one? If we can get both, that would
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be even better. Now let's transition over to a
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big weekend because we got college football, we got NFLI,
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got 3 plays in college, 3 plays in the NFL and I'm excited to to
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break down these games with you guys.
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So first one on the board for me, a noon start time between
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Iowa State and Cincinnati. Now this is one of the most
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heavily bet noon games on the board and we've seen a really
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sharp line move in favor of Cincinnati.
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So to set the stage for this one guys, Iowa State comes in five
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and O the ranked 14th Cincinnati, meanwhile, 3 and 1
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unranked here. And what's really important to
13:54
me is this dog to fave line move because most books open Iowa
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State, the ranked team, the undefeated team around a 2 1/2
14:01
point Rd. favorite and the public says give me Iowa State
14:04
all day. Better team.
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They should roll here easily. However, even though 75% of
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spread bets are backing Iowa State, they didn't go up to -3
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-, 4. This line hopped the fence and
14:15
went to Cincinnati -1 - 1 1/2. Now there has been some
14:19
buybacks, some of these one and apps are down to one, but still
14:22
you're holding steady. Cincinnati has a favorite even
14:25
though they're only getting 25% of spread bets.
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They are getting however over 50% of spread dollars.
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So anytime I see a dog to fave line move In addition, in a buy
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low sell high spot in which you are a unranked team against a
14:37
sell high ranked opponent, but when you are specifically an
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unranked home favorite versus ranked opponent, those teams are
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54 and 28 straight up 66 percent, 6% ROI since 2017.
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And just from the standpoint of fishy doesn't make any sense.
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Again, Iowa State, 5 and undefeated, ranked 14th
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Cincinnati unranked. Yet Iowa State is getting points
15:00
again. The public's going to say the
15:01
wrong team is favored and they're going to hammer the
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Cyclones in this one. However, we've seen this line
15:06
flip to Cincinnati tells me smart money here is going with
15:08
the Bearcats. So I'm going money line here.
15:11
They got a really good bet split.
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They're only getting around 15% of money line bets, but over
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half the money. You can shop around and find
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Cincinnati around -115 -, 120 again, it looks like the obvious
15:23
play is Cyclones, but this line is flipped towards Cincinnati
15:26
and there also is a 7% sharp mush edge on Cincinnati from our
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friends at Juice Rail. So first play on Saturday for
15:33
me, I'm going Cincinnati money line to win the game.
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I got -120 you might be able to shop around and find a -, 115 at
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this point. Next one for you, let's look
15:42
toward a what is it? A let me find this one.
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This is second most heavily back game of the weekend, 3:30 PM
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Eastern Time, Vandy and Alabama. Now coming into this one, we
15:54
have Vandy who's been really good team 5 and O ranked 16th.
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They're playing Alabama, obviously 3 and 1 ranked 10th
16:00
coming off a big win for us outright.
16:03
We took the points, but they went out right there against
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Georgia with that sharp line move in their favor.
16:08
But this one is notable because the sign has crept back toward
16:11
Vanderbilt. Now we open this game Alabama as
16:13
high as a 13 point home favorite.
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We're now down to 10 1/2. So if it opened 13, it's down to
16:19
10 1/2. Tells you smart money here
16:21
grabbed Vanderbilt in the points.
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Now it looks like a pro and Joe split cuz Vandy's getting around
16:26
60% of bets but more than 80% of dollars.
16:29
And the one angle that I really like for this one is the
16:32
conference dog angle. And if you look specifically,
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two teams in the SEC play each other, take the dog, it's seven
16:38
and five against the spread this year, 58%.
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It is 48 and 28 ATS, 63 percent, 20% ROI since the start of last
16:47
year. But if you take it a step
16:48
further, if you're an SEC conference game and you're the
16:51
dog and you're getting 10 points or more, your double digit dog
16:55
and a conference game in the SEC, those teams, believe it or
16:57
not, are 25 and six against the spread, 81%, 54% ROI since 2024.
17:04
And we also have Vandy as a dog who can score system match.
17:07
So Commodores are averaging 50 points per game this year.
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That's number one in college football.
17:12
Hopefully you can lose by 10 or less and cover this number here.
17:15
But I'm going Vandy plus 10 1/2. I like that sharp line move in
17:19
their favor as well as that conference dog double digit dog
17:23
system match. So let's go Commodores plus 10
17:26
1/2. Another play that I can't wait
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to sweat tomorrow night, Miami and Florida State, if you could
17:31
look up a blueprint. You know, all systems go sharp
17:35
contrarian play in college. It's going to be FSU here.
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Hopefully they're able to come through for us.
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But Miami four and O ranked 3rd. Meanwhile, Florida State 3 and 1
17:43
ranked 18th. And what we've seen is nothing
17:46
but movement toward Florida State.
17:48
So this game open Miami as high as a 7 point Rd. favorite.
17:52
Public is not worried about that big #70% of spread bets are
17:55
laying the points of Miami. Carson Beck, undefeated top five
18:00
team. Again, easy.
18:01
Just take Miami. However, even though they're
18:04
getting nearly three out of four bets, you know Miami, FL is not
18:07
up to -8 -, 9. They're down to 4 1/2 even 4.
18:11
So why is this line dropping in favor of Florida State?
18:13
If the public is all over EU? Why are the odds makers dropping
18:17
the number to make it easier for the public for the public to
18:20
cover? Tells me again, smart money took
18:22
Florida State in the points here.
18:23
Florida State is one of the top contrarian plays of the week.
18:26
Is a 730 game on ABC nationally televised and they're only
18:29
getting around 30% of tickets. So a really good contrarian
18:33
opportunity. But again, try to mention this
18:35
contrarian is a starting point. It's a foundation.
18:38
It's not the end all be all. You also have to involve some
18:41
sort of element of smart money, which you are having here with
18:43
the reverse line move. I also like the fact that most
18:46
every book when I wrote about this game a few days ago for
18:49
visen.com was at 4 1/2. Now you're seeing some books get
18:52
down to 4. So it's not like you got down to
18:54
4 1/2 and then crept back up at 5:00 where you had smart money.
18:58
Buy low on on Miami and Jack the line back up.
19:00
No, it's continuing to go toward FSUFSU is only getting at circa
19:05
like 40% of tickets, but 80% of dollars.
19:08
And I also like the buy low opportunity on Florida State.
19:11
Like this is a good situational spot because Miami is undefeated
19:14
off a win ranked very high. Florida State, if you remember,
19:18
we took Virginia +7 a week ago tonight.
19:21
Virginia won the game outright. So you're buying low on a team
19:23
that just lost straight up as a favorite.
19:26
You're selling high on a team that's undefeated.
19:28
So I'm playing FSU here, and I love the fact that our friends
19:31
at Rhythm actually have FSU plus 2.7, which again, provides a
19:36
pretty good edge on the 4 1/2. So a lot of books are down to
19:38
four. Make sure you get the hook there
19:40
on the four and a half. I'm on Florida State plus 4 1/2
19:42
tomorrow night. So Cincinnati money line, Vandy
19:45
plus 10 1/2, Florida State plus 4 1/2.
19:47
Can we find a way to get two out of three?
19:50
That is the goal. Now over to a big NFL slate
19:53
here. I got 3 plays for you.
19:55
I probably could have added more.
19:58
But as always, try to limit your plays to the games you're most
20:00
confident in. The worst thing you can do is
20:02
bet too many games because you want the action.
20:04
And then have a bad day get cleaned out.
20:06
That's always a rough spot. But first on the board for me.
20:09
Minnesota and Cleveland. This is an early game 9:30 AM
20:12
Eastern Time. Played overseas in London.
20:15
Now the Vikings are two and two again.
20:17
Came up short against the Steelers.
20:19
Annoyed me last weekend. Had him on the money line 2421
20:22
as a 2 1/2 point favorite. They lost that one.
20:25
Straight up Browns though. 1:00 and 3:00 just got crushed by the
20:28
Lions 34 to 10. Did not cover as a 10 point Rd.
20:32
dog. Now, Minnesota was in Ireland
20:35
last week and they're in London this week.
20:37
So you would kind of think that's an advantage.
20:39
They've already been overseas, getting used to the time zone,
20:41
the weather, all that kind of stuff.
20:43
But actually we've seen this line go toward Cleveland.
20:45
This came open Minnesota around a 4 1/2 point favorite.
20:48
Now it's down to 3 1/2. You're looking at the spread
20:52
bets here. Brown, 60% of tickets, 89% of
20:55
dollars at DraftKings. At Circa only 29% bets, 75%
20:59
dollars in favor of Cleveland dogs off a blowout loss of 20
21:03
points or more. Browns would match their four
21:06
and two ATS this year. They're 56% ATS, 8% ROI since
21:10
2018. You're also a dog low total.
21:13
So this total is pretty low 36 1/2.
21:16
That looks like it may even be getting down to 36.
21:18
It's juiced under. So it tells me again, we just
21:21
talked about that college football game where you're a
21:23
short favorite high total with Delaware.
21:26
Well, this is a dog low total in favor of Cleveland.
21:29
Also, you look at the quarterback switch, you know,
21:32
this kind of reminds me a little bit in baseball when you bring
21:34
up a rookie or someone from the Miners making his debut.
21:38
Like do the sharp say this guy's overmatched, the lights are too
21:41
bright, he's going to get lit up, fade him.
21:43
Or is it in in terms of baseball, either he's really
21:46
good or maybe he just surprises the other team that never seen
21:49
him before. Well, football is different.
21:51
But when Dylan Gabriel was announced the starter, the line
21:54
move further toward Cleveland. So again, hopefully an upgrade
21:57
over Joe Flacco. Now, importance of shopping
22:00
around. Pretty much every book is
22:02
Cleveland plus 3 1/2. But I double checked right
22:04
before the pod started. You can still get plus 4 1/2
22:07
with Cleveland at DraftKings. That's -115 there is a 4% sharp
22:11
mush edge on Cleveland at Juice Reel and Rhythm has Cleveland
22:15
plus 2.1. And I was just reading a second
22:18
ago about how the offensive line of Minnesota is really banged up
22:22
and where we know about Cleveland, you know, again,
22:24
Miles Garrett, great defensive line.
22:26
Hopefully that's an advantage. Hopefully Gabriel can put up
22:28
some points at least improve on what Flacco did.
22:32
But add it all up here guys. Again, most books 3 1/2 but you
22:35
can get 4 1/2. That's what I did.
22:36
I got Cleveland plus 4 1/2 -. 115 at DraftKings.
22:41
Next one for you, Denver Broncos at the Philadelphia Eagles.
22:45
This is a 1:00 game tomorrow. Broncos come in two and two
22:48
crush the Bengals 28 to 3 covering easily as a 7 1/2 point
22:51
home favorite. Last week.
22:53
Eagles four and O just took down the Bucks 31 to 25 covered as a
22:57
3 1/2 point Rd. favorite. So what we've seen here, well,
23:00
this game opened as high as Philly -5 1/2 - 5 - 4 1/2.
23:05
We've now seen this line get down to even though the public
23:08
is going Philly, 71% of bets on Philly.
23:10
This line is now down to basically 3 1/2 four.
23:14
You can still find a four and a half out there though with
23:16
Denver. I got plus 4 1/2 - 118 at
23:19
FanDuel, but again, a classic reverse line move public all
23:22
over the Eagles. Yet the line has dipped toward
23:24
Denver. Denver would be one of your top
23:27
bet against the public plays, contrarian plays of the week.
23:29
They're only getting 29% of spread bets.
23:32
You look at circa though, 20% of bets, 50% of dollars.
23:37
Short Rd. dogs getting 6 or less grinder system.
23:39
Lot of matches generated 54% against the spread since 2019.
23:44
And Jalen Hurts by the way, when he's laying a bigger number, 3
23:47
1/2 or more as a favorite, he's only 17 and 21 against the
23:50
spread 45%. I also was talking to a fellow
23:55
wise guy, better friend of mine, and he mentioned how the luck
23:58
ratings, basically things going your way really has gone.
24:03
Basically in a way, if I can put it this way, Philly is like the
24:06
luckiest team thus far. And typically when you're lucky,
24:09
the luck doesn't always stay with you.
24:10
It goes the other way. So maybe we're selling high on
24:12
Philly. Public just sees that good
24:14
record where, hey, we can take the points with Denver and
24:17
hopefully that regression is a negative for Philly and a
24:20
positive for Denver. Again.
24:22
A lot of books at four now. It got as low as 3 1/2.
24:25
I jumped on Denver plus 4 1/2 -. 118 at FanDuel.
24:29
And again, our friends at Rhythm actually have Denver plus 2.2.
24:33
So good edge there. Hopefully in favor of the
24:35
Broncos. Last bed of the night.
24:38
I've been waiting all day for Sunday night.
24:40
My New England Patriots going up to Buffalo, Pats, Bills, Sunday
24:44
Night Football. Can't wait to sweat this one.
24:47
Patriots come in two and two just crush the Panthers 42 to
24:50
13. Easily covered as a 5 1/2 point
24:52
home favorite. You know all the Bills, four and
24:54
O just beat the Saints 31 to 19. Didn't cover though as a 14 1/2
24:58
point home favorite. What do we see across the
25:01
market? Well, nothing but movement in
25:02
favor of New England. Buffalo open this game around a
25:05
10 1/2 point home favorite and sharps have gotten down hard on
25:09
the Patriots. The sign went from Pat's getting
25:11
10 1/2 to now Pat's getting 8 1/2.
25:15
Some shops were touching 9. A lot of those nines are gone
25:17
now and some books are even down to 7 1/2.
25:20
So again, late movement getting closer to Sunday, continues to
25:23
break toward New England. It's kind of a 5050 line move.
25:27
DraftKings only 52% of bets are on New England.
25:30
Again, shouldn't move a point in half, two points off of 50,
25:33
barely over 50%. But 89% of the dollars at
25:37
DraftKings are on the Patriots, and that circa 17% bets over 90%
25:42
of dollars on the Patriots. Big dogs hitting six and half or
25:46
more. They're eight and seven ATS this
25:48
year. They're 55% ATS since 2022.
25:51
You're also matching with New England primetime dog.
25:54
Primetime dogs are 8 and five ATS this season.
25:56
They're actually nine and five ATS after the 49ers covered last
26:00
night. They're 53 percent, 2% ROI since
26:03
2020. If the prime time dog is getting
26:05
6 1/2 or more, they're now 57 and 39 ATS.
26:09
Nearly 60 percent, 13% ROI since 2020.
26:13
Patriots would be a classic divisional dog.
26:15
Built in familiarity, levels the playing field, benefits the team
26:18
getting points. Divisional dogs are 55% against
26:21
the spread since 2020. Mike Vrabel's been good as a
26:24
dog. Not quite Mike Tomlin, but he's
26:26
30 and 23 ATS as a dog. Mostly of course with the
26:30
Titans, 57% against the spread. And oh by the way, Josh Allen,
26:34
as great as he is when he's laying 7 half points or more as
26:37
a chalk favorite, he's only 14 and 16 against the spread. 47%
26:42
Lastly, 5% sharp mush edge on New England at Juice Reel and
26:46
our friends at Rhythm have Patriots plus 7.6.
26:50
So the 8 1/2 is still pretty widely available, but again,
26:53
looks like it's getting down to 8 even couple shops. 7 1/2 I
26:56
jumped on the Patriots plus 8 1/2.
26:58
I should be able to find that number, but I'm going to root
27:01
for the the Patriots to keep this thing close.
27:04
So go Pats. So 3 plays in the NFL.
27:06
Let's try to get two of them. Cleveland plus 4 1/2.
27:09
Denver plus 4 1/2. New England plus 8 1/2 So that
27:14
about does it for episode 366 of the All Systems Go sports
27:17
Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
27:19
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and
27:22
always start first by saying thank you.
27:24
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
27:26
busy lives and we got a lot going on.
27:28
But you tune in, you sweat the breakdowns with me, you sweat
27:31
the games with me. This really means the world to
27:33
me, guys. I'm just lucky enough to have
27:35
this platform. I'll be you guys tuning in.
27:37
You make the pod what it is. So thank you.
27:39
If you'd like to let me know if you appreciate the pod, please
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give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
27:45
Click the follow button, leave a review.
27:47
I recommend the pod to a friend. That would all be fantastic.
27:51
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown and you want
27:54
to learn more about data-driven betting or you just want to make
27:56
me happy, make my day. Please go to Amazon.com, type in
28:00
the NFL Sharp betting playbook as well as the everything guide
28:04
to sports betting. Those are the two books I wrote.
28:06
They provide the data-driven blueprint.
28:09
My new book, of course, almost two months old at this point,
28:11
which is crazy. But if you'd like to buy one or
28:14
both of those books for you or a buddy or a friend or someone who
28:18
parlays everything and has no bankroll management and doesn't
28:21
even look at line movements or splits, they just bet off of gut
28:24
instinct. Get them the everything guy to
28:26
sports betting. Get them the NFL Sharp betting
28:28
playbook. Bring them to the sports book.
28:30
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
28:32
and we'll sweat some games together next.
28:34
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
28:36
My two favorite sports betting apps?
28:37
Rhythm incredible for their game backed AI models and predictions
28:42
for player props and game bets. Of course you have the start 25
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promo If you want to save some money, there's a refer a friend.
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There's a discord channel. There's the leaderboard contest
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you can make up to 1000 bucks each month or sorry each week
28:54
playing those contests if you have the best model and then of
28:57
course, juice rail again, the pod is free.
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It cost you nothing. If you want to support the pod
29:02
tip your podcast those by signing up to get the all
29:04
systems go official best bet picks on juice rail.
29:07
It costs $4.99 a week. Basically a couple cup of coffee
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and you'll get all the plays and support the pod and hopefully
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we'll get some better numbers as soon as I bet it, it goes right
29:17
to juice reel synced up for my sports books.
29:20
You also get the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush
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indicators, the arbitrage plays. The shop for the best line
29:25
features all located within the juice reel app.
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So download rhythm, download Juice Reel.
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It'll be off and running making sharp data-driven plays.
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Next, you have a live odds page. If you don't have one, you need
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one. Sports betting is hard.
29:38
You got to be able to track the market.
29:40
You got to know what the line opened at.
29:42
You got to know how it's moved, what what the current prices are
29:45
across the market. Shop for the best price, find
29:47
the best number, identify steam as well as getting you know,
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live scoring, live in game wagering odds all included when
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you give a shot to odds logic. So odds logic is great.
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Test it out for yourself. 7 day free trial, 50% off your first
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month. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
30:07
123 next. Do you know what Novig is?
30:10
Have you heard of Novig? Do you know what a betting
30:12
exchange is? It's unlike a sports book.
30:13
It operates like a sports book. You deposit money, you get paid
30:16
out. It's totally legal as long as
30:18
you're in a legal state. But it's a little different.
30:20
Instead of betting against the book, you're betting against
30:22
other betters and you're not getting limited when you win.
30:25
And I've been trying to highlight this more, but for
30:27
example, like last night, San Fran, LA, you could have gotten
30:31
San Fran on the money line plus 398.
30:36
And I want to say the best price on San Fran was like plus 350.
30:42
Also, if you play the total over 43 and half was -1 O3 under 43
30:47
and half was +100, you're getting better numbers because
30:49
you're not having to pay the bit, the vague, the juice that
30:52
the odds makers are forcing you to play.
30:53
So it makes it easier to win and you can win more and win at a
30:57
higher rate because you're getting better numbers.
30:59
So give odds or sorry, give Novig a shot.
31:03
Just download the Novig app, NOVIG.
31:06
And when there's a promo code, little box, type in Josh 123.
31:10
That'll give you 100% purchase match up to 25 bucks.
31:13
It's not about, does it? Everybody wrapping things up on
31:16
a big Friday. As always, two final thoughts.
31:18
Whether I see you at the Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in
31:21
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
31:23
Sundown in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plainridge
31:26
Park Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash where I'm at of the
31:30
border of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
31:32
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down or Billy
31:34
Walter sends his number runners where the lowest Jews possible
31:37
is found at the South Point, where sweat and sharp contrarian
31:39
plays, jumping in the stadium swim pool, cashing a big ticket
31:42
at Circo, wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
31:45
We're just going to say Mac freaking Jones again.
31:48
I didn't realize you're going up against Joe Montana last night,
31:51
but sadly couldn't get that under killed my survivor, my Red
31:55
Sox season is over. Thirsty Thursday was was not
31:58
fun, but sometimes that happens. So let's see if we can bounce
32:01
back after an O in one night. A1 and O night, good night, bad
32:04
night, awesome night, terrible night again.
32:07
You just got to stick with it. Never get too high, never get
32:09
too low, don't get down on yourself when you're struggling
32:12
and don't get arrogant and cocky when you're winning.
32:14
You're always somewhere in the middle.
32:15
So we can find the games that fit our model.
32:18
Be disciplined with our bankroll management, but fearless with
32:21
our plays against the public, with the house, with the pros,
32:24
Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
32:26
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
32:30
So have a great weekend everyone.
32:31
Reminder, no pods on the weekend, but you can read my
32:33
Sharp reports. Just give me a follow on Twitter
32:35
at Josh under score Insights. You have a Sharp report for
32:38
college tomorrow in NFL on Sunday, and you can always
32:41
follow the official best bets from the juice rail page.
32:45
You can click the the tweet that I put out or you can just go to
32:48
I think it's buy sell bottom right and then just search
32:51
sellers and you can search ASG under score podcast.
32:54
Boom, you can follow all the official place.
32:57
But either way, guys, hope you have a great Friday night.
32:59
Hope you have an even better weekend.
33:00
We'll be right back at it on Monday for episode 367 of the
33:05
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
33:08
Good luck everybody and have a great weekend.