Latest / Toadstool Sports / MLB Divisional + NFL + WNBA Finals Best Bets Sunday 10/5/25

Transcript

MLB Divisional + NFL + WNBA Finals Best Bets Sunday 10/5/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We are on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all, all
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: four that have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: wickends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows?
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't know what data is anymore. But I
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: don't even know what data is anymore.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: could possibly have with you, as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: doing this I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: about this anymore. To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: End it all. What's up, everybody?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you better off dead. This is
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: the Sunday, October fifth edition. Thanks uh to people who
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: hung out last night for the NFL show. Still time
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: to watch that, and of course the NFL London game
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: has already kicked off.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: But I analyzed every single game.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Again, I give out a couple of plays, did not
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: give out a play in that game. If you want
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: to go see the analysis on that, I can go
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: watch it still. Jeffrey, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Mark Lawrence on Carolina and Tampa. I like Mark Lawrence.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like some of his picks, I
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know if those are like free picks that
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: he's given out there or something like that. But like
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: all the professionals that I've seen are on Seattle, I
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: agree with Seattle in that one, and I do agree
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: with Carolina. I don't know, Lawrence usually is like on
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: what I considered to be like the more professional side
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: of games, though, so I don't know, it seems strange
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: that he has Tampa Bay or I guess maybe that
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: was just a free opinion of his.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Yesterday we went two and three, so we finally had
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: a losing day.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: I talked about it a little bit on the show
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: last night, but I didn't go into detail with it.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: One in three in college football wasn't great. Perdue was
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: kind of hanging in there. They wound up losing by
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: two touchdowns or something in that vicinity, so we didn't
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: get there there. I believe a touchdown off from the
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: cover there not good enough. Obviously, Louisville was the one
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: that was actual bullshit. Like I could take those losses
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: that aren't bullshit.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: But Louisville was bull shit. Louisville completely dominated the game.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Statistic if you look at the stat sheet, everything was
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: in favor of them, total yards, passing yards, rushing yards,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: yards for play, everything. It's like, how did Louisville not
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: even win the game at all? And of course we
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: needed them to cover as a favorite. Oh yeah, it
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: was because it was two turnovers that like Keith Imes
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: early in the game, and they were behind by ten
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter I think, and they still came back,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: tied it and sent it into overtime. So there was
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: still an outside chance they're gonna be able to win
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: by seven and overtime, which they didn't.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: They still lost the game outright, but statistically that should
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: have been a winner.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: So that was that was the one that was very disheartening.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: I would say Houston didn't get there. Probably shouldn't have
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: added that one, to be honest and to anger me more,
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: two of my three that I left off the card
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: won Florida and Penn State, when excuse UCLA winning outright
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: over Penn State absolutely ridiculous.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I gave those out as leans. And then my leen.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: On Kentucky I think was a loser by a half
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: point unless the twenty one was out there at all.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: So all three of those almost came home.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Probably should I should have just played the board yesterday, man,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: I would have had more wins that way.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Houston was a loser. Didn't get there.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: They were still they were kind of hanging around too.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: They were down by two scores pretty late in the game,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: and then they just never scored again. Texas A and
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: M was a winner, and it took a while for
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: them to get there. They were able to get some
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: points on the board late in the game. I don't
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: think it was a misleading winner for Texas A and M.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: I know it was a really low scoring game for
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: a while and it looked like they were were't gonna
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: be able to get it done. But statistically they definitely
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: dominated the game. So we did get there at Texas
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: A and M. And the baseball game we got there
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: as well with the Milwaukee Brewers. A pretty easy win there.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: So not a horrible day. And the way that I
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: was running over the past a couple of weeks, not
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: having a losing day in like two weeks, I mean,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: I'll take that, and then two and three isn't the
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: worst that you could do?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Those are freebies.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder what Lawrence is on for like his
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: paid plays. Sometimes I look like afterwards succeed like what
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: he was on, because I think you can find like
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: what he was on because there are sites that like
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: track how handicappers do. Let's get into today's slate man,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: so again the NFL. You can watch the show from
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: last night. I have the two ugliest plays imaginable. I
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: will talk about those again at the end of the show.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Real quick.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: We just have one WNBA game and two Major League
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Baseball games to talk about here today Phoenix in Vegas
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: in the in the WNBA Finals. Vegas won the first
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: game only by three at home. They were a three
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: point favorite, I believe in that game, and the line
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: is pretty close to the same. They're down from three
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: and a half to two and a half here, fifty
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: five tickets, seventy five percent.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: The catch coming on.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Phoenix in this one, so the money is coming in
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: on Phoenix, which I don't know if we really consider
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: that to be a zigzag spot though, because usually I
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: say in these series like this, the team that lost
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: has the adjustments to make.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: But it wasn't really an out liar.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: If you look at that game, there was no real
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: statistical anomally in the game. The team's played statistically close.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: It was a close game. It landed right on the spread,
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: so no outliers. So there's nothing to really like zig
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: zag like. Which team is going to make the adjustments here?
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, because both teams actually played pretty
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: much like the way that you would expect they both
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: played pretty well in the game. So I mean, I
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: would actually kind of think that Vegas would actually maybe
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: be the team that has some more adjustments to make
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: because I think they kind of feel like, oh, we're
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: the home favorite. The game is a little bit too
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: close for comfort. Then again, of course, Phoenix, I mean
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: they really want to try to avoid going down two
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: here in the series as well, because if it goes
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: to oh, Vegas, Phoenix, highly unlikely they're gonna be able
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: to win three games in a row, even though they
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: will have two home games in the series. Still, if
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: that happens, but I mean, if they're able to have
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: all three, you know, if they're able to extend the series,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: I should say, but yeah, it's a difficult handicap. I
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: don't really have much of an opinion on it at all.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: And then we have two Major League Baseball games today.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: The American League games are today. I'm gonna give out
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: a play in the Yankees Blue Jays game, and hopefully
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a correct one. Detroit Seattle is
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: the night game on These are both on Fox Sports.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Detroit one game one, which surprised me. They were the
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: biggest underdog, and they came in in one three to two.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: It was a close game, obviously, it went into extra innings.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: There was a lot of bullpen usage on both sides here.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: As far as the bullpens are concerned, Seattle does have
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: the better.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Of the two bullpens. I don't know how far I
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: usually zoom in on this. Seattle used five relief pitchers yesterday.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: Detroit had a bullpend game, so they used even more
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: than that. They used basically every arm in their bullpen.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: So I do think Seattle still does have the bullpen
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: edge in this one. I don't really think they have
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching edge. They do have the offensive edge,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: and I do think the starting pitching.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Is at least close.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: But I mean Seattle, they cannot afford to fall down
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: two to zero losing two home games, man, because they
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: have a big home advantage. Seattle's really good at home
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: and Detroit's not particularly good on the road. They're only
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: one game above five hundred on the road. Seattle fifty
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: one and thirty at home on the season. But it's
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: gonna be difficult, man, because Detroit was able to steal
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: game one, and now they got school ball pitching in
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Game two, so there's a decent chance Detroit's gonna take
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: a two zero lead in the series, which would not
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: be what I would have expected. I think Detroit is
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: easily the weakest team left in the in the American
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: League here, and probably the weakest team left in all
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: of the playoffs in the entire playoff field.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: But Schooball is on the mound. He's the best pitcher
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: in baseball.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: Two point two to one, ERA point eight to nine
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: whip on the season, home and away, good either way.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Two point three Roady Ira. He pitched in the playoffs
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: already once, and he had fourteen strikeouts against against Cleveland.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: He did walk three guys too, but he only allowed
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: three hits him one earned run in seven to two
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: thirds innings. He threw a lot of pitches though.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: He threw one hundred and seven pitches, and he'd only
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: threw more than one hundred pitches one other time going
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: all the way back through into late July, so he
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: doesn't throw over one hundred pitches that offense, even though
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. But
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: he's still pretty much dominated in that game, so I
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: don't really.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Expect him to fall off a whole lot here.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: His numbers are good against Seattle too, one hundred and
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: twelve at bats, thirty five to six strikeout walk ratio
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: two twenty three average allowed, six fifty six ohps. So
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: I do expect him to do well. I mean almost
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: every time out he's going to do well. Luis Castillo,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: pitching for Seattle, might be able to battle him though,
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: three point five to four ERA, one point one to
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: eight WHIP on the season. He's been really good at
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: home two point six ERA at home, and he had
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: a double digit strikeout total in his last outing, which
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: was in the regular season. Had a two point four
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: to five ERA in the month of September, twenty nine
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: to three strikeout walk ratio. Seattle won his last four outings,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: although granted he was facing some pretty weak offenses during
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: that stretch, but he was good. He hasn't pitched for
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: a while now, though, so school ball kind of has
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: more momentum here because he already pitched once in the playoffs.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: He's kind of more on like regular rest here. Castillo's
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: had a lot of time off, which does mean he's
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: more rested. But if you kind of if you throw
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: off a pitcher's schedule like that, it can affect them
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit, man, because it's like he basically missed
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: a start in his schedule, So I don't know if
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: that's gonna necessarily be a good thing for him generally.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: I do still think he's gonna pitch well here, though,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: has good numbers against Detroit one hundred and twenty one
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: at bats thirty three to six, strikeout walk ratio two
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: forty eight batting average allowed in six forty four ohps,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: So I do think both starting pitchers will do well here.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on Seattle. Detroit's down for
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: minus one forty to minus one thirty three. I think
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the professional money is basically saying, well, you're paying at
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: tax for Schooble here, basically like Seattle is still the
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: better overall team with the better bullpen and the better offense.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: So if you can dodge Schooble and the game is
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: close going into the later parts of the game, it
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: might make sense to look towards Seattle as a home
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: underdog there, especially when they're going to be in desperation
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: mode really trying to avoid falling down oh two.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Sixty percent of tickets fifty two percent of the cash
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: on Detroit. So Detroit is public basically because it is schooable,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: and the public is basically like, what have you done
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: for me lately? As always their mindset, and Detroit has
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: been good in the last few games, So that's basically it. Yeah,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: I mean this game, I'd be looking more towards doing
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: something with an under. But the total is just so low.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: There's no way that you can play in under six,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: which is where the total is. Because it's a playoff game.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: It's such a load to total here. With the bullpends
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: being pretty used right now, I would really worry about
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: a full game under there sixty tickets, seventy four percent
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: You could go first five inning under.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: You would have to go under three if you wanted
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: to do that, but that is probably the way I
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: would play this game. Still, if you wanted to play it,
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: I would probably go under for five innings under three.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: It is a playoff game, so you're gonna get less scoring.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Definitely a chance at schoobl shuts out Seattle for that
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: duration for the first five innings potentially could happen. Just
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: you know, a couple of things maybe to worry about
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: a little bit that I pointed out with those two starters,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: but generally I do think they should pitch well. Then
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: we do have the Yankees in Toronto. Let's just throw
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: it up now because it's gonna be the best Bets segment.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go right into just mentioning my NFL best
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: bets one more time too, but we're gonna take the
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: shot here with the with the Blue Jays as a
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: big home underdog plus one thirty five and as a
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: Yankee hater, I hope we get this one right. The
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays did win yesterday, but I want them to
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: win the series. Obviously, they won ten to one yesterday,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: but it was a little bit misleading in a way
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: because it was a two to one game, probably in
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: like the seventh inning.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: But the Yankees bullpen woes are Rio. Man. The Yankees
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: bullpen is definitely the worst of these two bullpens.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: And I think we get an extra bullpen advantage for
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: Toront here because the Yankees used more relief pitchers yesterday.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: They used five and Toronto.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Only used four, and they didn't really use their high
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: leverage bullpen arms because the game was a blowout. So
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Toronto's better bullpen arms are still available here, and I
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: do think they're gonna use them. That they might have
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: their bullpen come into this game earlier, So that is
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: something to keep in mind.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Little maybe a little bit of a warrior. There might
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Warrior there, because Toronto has a very inexperienced pitcher on
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: the mound here. So that's the one concern here. But
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: I think that's giving us value on Toronto.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are a very public road favorite, just like
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Detroit Yankees. Down for minus one forty eight, you know
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: you're paying attacks with the Yankees down one and with
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: their eight, with their ace on the mound, there's not
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: really gonna be value to be had playing the Yankees.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Seventy three percent of tickets, only seventy one percent of
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: the cash on them.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I know. I pointed out yesterday.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are pretty good on the road forty four
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: and thirty seven. Blue Jay is really good at home though,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: fifty four and twenty seven at home. So even though
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are one of the better road teams, the
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays are still really good at home. Max Free
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: is pitching, I mean Obviously, the Blue Jays are gonna
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: have to dodge him, but I think they might be
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: able to get to him for something here.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: I know his numbers are really good on the season
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: two point eight six ERA, one point one whip. He's
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: not quite as good on the road ERA almost a
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: run high or three point two eight ERA in the road.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: He pitched in the Wildcard Series six and a third
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: shutout innings against the Red Sox. Battled curche though and
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox wound up winning the game. Free did
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: walk three guys in the game with six strikeouts, so
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: his walk rate a little bit off right now. Potentially
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: he did face Toronto did pretty well last time out
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: at home though, in seven and he was three arned runs,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: allowed only four strikeouts in one walk. But even though
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: he pitched well in two home starts against Toronto this year,
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: his one road start against Toronto was actually not very good,
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: which was on July twenty third. He pitched against Toronto
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: in this stadium, only lasted five and thir gave up
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: four and runs six runs, so the fielding wasn't good
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: behind him three walks, three strikeouts, so he had a
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: pretty bad outing in that one. So I think it
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: is possible the Free doesn't do great in this game.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Expecting him to do poorly, but he might be just
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: often enough that it makes sense that we have that
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: it makes sense to play. Toronto is an underdog, and
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: that they can He can't keep the game, you know,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: within reach, basically with Freed out there. Freed against Toronto's
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: overall numbers are mediocre in one hundred and twenty at bats,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: a pretty bad twenty to eleven strike out walk ratio
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: with the walks basically dispersed across the whole lineup, so
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really do that well against them. Two point
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: fifty average isn't terrible. Seven thirteen oh ps isn't terrible,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't go out there and dominate them either.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: And he's gonna have to go up against Trey A.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Y Savage who is getting the start. Man.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: I know it might be a pressure situation here, but
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: being up one oh maybe takes the pressure off them
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: a little bit. He's a rookie, he's only made three
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: career starts, had a three point two to one era.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I know his whip was too high one point four
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: to three whip, but If you look at his numbers,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: they've been good so far. He has a zero e
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: R at home, only one start so far he pitched.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: His last outing was a shutout. It was his best outing,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: a five innings shot out of Tampa Bay at home.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: And the thing to note about that is he had
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: already faced Tampa in his debut on the road. Difficult
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: environment by the way, to pitch in Tampa. It's a
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly ballpark, and he held them to one to
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: run in five innings that first outing of his nine
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: strikeouts two walks. But because Tampa had faced him already,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: he didn't have the unfamiliarity edge anymore of the second
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: time out, and he still shut them out for five innings,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: So that is a good sign. I know his other
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: striding didn't do very well against Kansas City on the road.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Kansas City not a good hitting team, so that's a
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: little bit of a concern. But the fact that he
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: bounced back and it was against the team that had
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: already faced him, I think that's a good sign for
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: y Savage. And he is pretty good if you look
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: at his scouting or whatever. There's the reason why he's
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: in this rotation right now. They think that he can, like,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: they think he could be the guy, be one of
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: the guys man in the rotation. And of course he
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: does have an unfamiliarity yet year, because the Yankees have
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: never seen him before. So I think he might be
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: able to keep this game within reach early in the game.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's gonna like outdual Max Freed or
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: anything like that, but I think he can pitch well
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: enough to keep this close.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Getting to the point where we should have a little
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: bit of a bullpen edge.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: As far as the offenses, the Yankees have the better offense,
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: but Toronto's is almost as good, so there's not a
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: huge difference between the two.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we're we're gonna do it. Man.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: I think there's value getting the unknown quantity here with
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Ya Savage, who does have good potential, good stuff, good
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: scouting on him.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Let's go with it. Man.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: He's shown the ability to strike guys out at the
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: major league level as well, so that is a good
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: sign as well. We'll take the shot on Toronto. Hopefully
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: it gets there. It is a fade of the public
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: as well, so yeah, and at least I was right
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: about the over in that game. Yesterday, but it came
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: entirely because of the Yankees bullbend. So I mean that
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: was part of the reason I didn't give it out
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: as a play, but that was part of the reason
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: I lead to the overall. But I thought the starting
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: pitching might do worse than it did, but still correct
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: on the over So whatever.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Anyway, the NFL plays we have today. In addition to that.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Toronto playing baseball, we have New Orleans minus one and
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: a half and we have the Jets plus one and
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: a half. You want to see my analysis on those,
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: you can go check out the video from last night.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: I know they're ridiculously ugly. I get it.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: It's terrible, but that's what we do in the NFL. Man,
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: You're gonna wind up on some crazy ugly teams. The
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Browns are already out to a seven to nothing lead,
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: so I had mentioned that I thought the Vikings did
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: have an edge in that game playing in the London
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: slash Dublin area, although I think I actually picked the
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Browns against the spread in my overall pick them league though,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: just because of the way the market shaped up. So again,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: when I give out these opinions, yeah, that's my opinion,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: then I'm also and I will also have to factor
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: in what the market is doing late, and I have
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: to decide does that trump my opinion on the game.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: So some difficult decisions to be made.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: The Giants still have the money right now, sixty percent tickets,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: seventy four percent of the cash on them, but the
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Saints are up from pick them to a two. I
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: still think the Saints are the right side. I'm not
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: changing my opinion on that one. Nor am I changing
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: my opinion on the Jets. The Cowboys sixty five percent tickets,
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: sixty three percent of the cash, and that line is
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: still around one and a half. So have at it
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: with those two plays as far as the market read otherwise,
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: the cash percentage is on the Dolphins right now, but
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: I still don't agree with that one. I lean to
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: the Panthers, Raiders, Colts. The Colts still have the cash
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: percentage there. It's basically no change from last night, but
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: I still think that I lean against the Colts at
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: that number above seven. There At below seven, it might
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: be a different story though, and I think that's what
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: we have in pigs can pick them. I think it
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: is below seven, so it's a tough call because I
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: think I lean to the Raiders situationally, but getting it.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: On the wrong side of that key number seven maybe
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: a different story.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Still lean to the Broncos, even though the Eagles have
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: a little bit of the cash percentage right now, I
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: still lean to the Ravens as a whole underdog and
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: the injured player spot.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I think that's the only way to look there.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on them, even though they
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: are also a little bit public. The money is coming
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: in on a quite public Cardinals team. I would still
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: probably lean against the Cardinals. I think the actual money
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: has dropped the line on that one, so I don't
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: buy that cash percentage there.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Lean to the Seahawks.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Like I said, that's looking like a pros versus Joe's
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: type of situation there where it looks like the public
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: percentage is on the Buccaneers for the ticket percentage, where
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: the money is actually on the Seahawks, and it's driven
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: that line through that key number three.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: So I think that is a legit move.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle is a pretty heavy professional side today.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: The Lions.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: I would fade the Lions as well still, I mean
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: they're extremely public with less of the cash on them, so,
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: even though that's a ridiculously ugly one too, I think
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: if you play that game, the only way you could
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: do is take the points with the Bengals at ten.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I still lean to the Chargers.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: They're public, but they are also getting more of the
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: cash there the spot is better for them. Still lean
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: to Buffalo in the night game as well, even though
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: they're public as well more of the cash coming in
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: on them. And then I do still lean to the
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Jags Monday night, but I might not wind up making
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: it a play because it's like, I mean, the cash
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: percentage right now is more heavily on.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs than was the case last night.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Seems a little bit strange to me, man, So we
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: might wind up leaving it at two plays this week
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: in the NFL.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: But we'll see. That's gonna do it.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: Jeffrey, Thanks for hanging out this morning. Go check out
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: my NFL video. There's still time to watch that before
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the rest of the games kick off. Learn to tone
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: on Twitter, Learn to tone on Instagram. I gotta get
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: the plays up for today on Instagram. Only three of
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: them today, so won't be too bad. Yeah, Like, subscribe
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: to the channel here. Better off dead YouTube, let's get
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: this thing rolling. We're on audio as well. Reviews definitely
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: help over there. Listen and review on Apple and Spotify.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Covered a Yuke on YouTube for my ukulelely content. Want
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: to grow that thing as well. And then Patreon dot com,
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: slash learn to toad and there's some bonus uke content there.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: That'll do it for now. Short video this morning. We'll
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: be back tomorrow with probably another short card. We'll have
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: National League Baseball tomorrow and I think that's probably it
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: for tomorrow. But hockey starts on Tuesday, where the Triple
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Ahead or NNHL begins. I'm not sure that I'm gonna
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: have any plays. A lot of times I won't have
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: a play in like team's first games of the season
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: in hockey or in the NBA, really because it's just
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: tough to gauge. You really just have to kind of
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: make the play based off of, like do you think
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: there's some discrepancy between how good a team is versus
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: like what their expectations are coming into the season, Like
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: our team's underre overvalued coming into the season is kind
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: of what you have to gauge. So a lot of
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: times I won't have plays on the first day or
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: two of those sports. But we'll see because I wait
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: for the situations to kind of set up.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: But again we will see. That's gonna do it for now. Man,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: have a good one today, Happy Sunday, and peace for
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: now mhm.