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The AI Software Pivot and Big Tech Earnings Week · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , early birds !
• 0:02
  It is a beautiful 6 am on Sunday , July 19th , 2026 , here in the Pacific .
• 0:09
  I am your host , Barnaby Bullmarket , and you are listening to Spy Trader , your goto guide for navigating the markets every few hours .
• 0:18
  Grab your favorite morning beverage and settle in , because we are heading into one of the most pivotal weeks of the year .
• 0:25
  As we look at the landscape this morning , the stock market is entering what we call the Second Phase of the AI revolution .
• 0:32
  For the last couple of years , everyone was focused on building the hardware , like those famous chips and data centers .
• 0:39
  Now , the market is demanding to see the money through software monetization .
• 0:44
  We are looking for proof of productivity .
• 0:47
  We will find out soon , as Big Tech earnings kick into high gear tomorrow .
• 0:52
  Beyond the tech world , we are living in the Neutral Era of the Federal Reserve .
• 0:57
  Interest rates have stabilized around 3.25 to 3.5 percent .
• 1:02
  The big question now isn't about rate cuts anymore ; it is about whether the economy is growing fast enough to support current valuations .
• 1:10
  We will get a major clue this Friday with the PCE inflation report .
• 1:14
  If the numbers are cool , we expect the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , or TLT , to move higher .
• 1:23
  Let us talk sectors .
• 1:25
  The Technology sector , which you can track through the XLK or the QQQ , is currently trading at a bit of a premium .
• 1:32
  We are hearing rumors that Microsoft and Alphabet might provide big updates on their enterprise AI agent subscriptions .
• 1:39
  If they show doubledigit growth in AI revenue , the QQQ could finally break out of its current sideways channel .
• 1:46
  Meanwhile , over in the Financial sector , the XLF fund is looking interesting .
• 1:53
  Big players like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have reported strong investment banking fees lately , signaling a resurgence in merger activity .
• 2:03
  And if you are looking for a defensive hedge , keep an eye on Eli Lilly and the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR Fund , known as XLV .
• 2:12
  Their nextgeneration treatments are keeping that sector buoyant .
• 2:15
  In specific stock news , NVIDIA is shifting its story toward Sovereign AI initiatives .
• 2:22
  Reports over the weekend suggest several G7 nations have signed massive data center contracts , which could provide a boost to the QQQ .
• 2:31
  For Tesla fans , the company is expected to release data on its Robotaxi fleet utilization in three major cities next week .
• 2:39
  This is a highenergy event , so conservative investors might prefer the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI , to capture upside without the individual stock risk .
• 2:51
  Do not overlook Real Estate !
• 2:53
  The Vanguard Real Estate ETF , or VNQ , has gained 4 percent this past month as refinancing fears subside .
• 3:02
  If the 10year Treasury yield stays below 4 percent , VNQ is expected to outperform .
• 3:08
  Now , for your trading recommendations for the week of July 20th .
• 3:12
  For aggressive growth , keep an eye on the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 3:17
  If Microsoft guidance is strong , look for a break above the 510 dollar level .
• 3:23
  For income and stability , the Vanguard Real Estate ETF is a great pick as its high dividend yield attracts capital .
• 3:31
  For your core foundation , the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , known as VOO , remains the most prudent strategy to capture overall gains .
• 3:42
  Finally , as a hedge against geopolitical tensions , consider SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , as a small insurance policy .
• 3:51
  This week , watch for tech positioning on Monday , midweek bank reports in the XLF , and the big PCE report on Friday .
• 4:00
  For most of us , staying anchored in VOO while maintaining a small tactical position in QQQ is the recommended path forward .
• 4:09
  Thanks for tuning in to Spy Trader .
• 4:12
  I am Barnaby Bullmarket , wishing you a profitable week ahead !