Transcript

Don, Til Musk · Politix

0:00
SPEAKER_01: Oh, there's an article.
0:01
There's a very ill-informed Michael Moynihan article
0:03
complaining about the new Bob Dylan biopic.
0:07
SPEAKER_01: I think like Moynihan's just take on this is wrong.
0:10
SPEAKER_01: He's misreading.
0:11
SPEAKER_01: Should we talk about, should we talk about a complete unknown?
0:14
SPEAKER_01: Uh, no.
0:15
SPEAKER_00: No.
0:20
Hey,
0:21
everyone,
0:21
you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: In this episode,
0:25
we'll talk about some of the things that happened over the
0:28
holiday break with a
0:30
SPEAKER_00: particular focus on the relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump,
0:34
SPEAKER_00: the schism between Trump's tech billionaire hangers-on and MAGA,
0:39
and whether it tells us anything about how Trump will govern
0:43
when he takes office
0:44
SPEAKER_00: in a couple weeks.
0:46
If you want to hear all of it,
0:46
you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: Hey everyone, welcome to the Politics Podcast.
0:56
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
0:59
SPEAKER_01: Hi Matt, it's been a while.
1:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we haven't recorded in a while.
1:05
Lame duck is always an odd time,
1:07
because formally speaking,
1:09
nothing has happened.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
1:11
SPEAKER_00: I was actually going to like fill this space with like,
1:14
SPEAKER_00: I was going to tease you about RSVPing,
1:17
SPEAKER_00: but then not showing up to my New Year's Eve.
1:19
But then you explained why that happened to me during PrEP,
1:22
and now I feel bad about it.
1:23
SPEAKER_01: It's tragic.
1:24
SPEAKER_01: No, it's fine.
1:27
SPEAKER_01: But to me,
1:28
SPEAKER_01: I guess,
1:28
SPEAKER_01: I feel like one thing that has shifted,
1:31
SPEAKER_01: and we'll talk about some of the specifics,
1:33
SPEAKER_01: is that Elon Musk,
1:35
SPEAKER_01: over the course of calendar year 2024,
1:39
SPEAKER_01: started playing a bigger and bigger role in Trump's campaign,
1:43
both as a donor and a kind of an advocate and eventually a
1:46
surrogate on the
1:46
SPEAKER_01: campaign trail.
1:48
But I think that trajectory has really accelerated since the
1:52
election in a way that
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I don't think was like obvious the day before the election that
1:59
Musk would spend
2:00
half the transition holed up at Mar-a-Lago with Trump sort of
2:05
operating as
2:07
SPEAKER_01: co-president or shadow president or what have you.
2:10
SPEAKER_01: And there've been a few, you know, kind of major...
2:14
SPEAKER_01: Elements to that, right, starting pretty soon after the election.
2:18
SPEAKER_01: But the most notable one was that,
2:21
SPEAKER_01: you know,
2:21
SPEAKER_01: Republicans in Congress had reached a deal with Democrats on a continuing
2:26
SPEAKER_01: resolution to keep the government funded.
2:29
SPEAKER_01: And it was just kind of like one of these Congress things,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
2:33
like the CR was going to go and certain right wing members
2:38
didn't want to vote for
2:39
SPEAKER_01: a CR.
2:41
SPEAKER_01: So they had to get Democrats on board.
2:43
SPEAKER_01: So it made some concessions to Democrats.
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SPEAKER_01: Then once this bill was going to pass,
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it just got Christmas tree with a few other bipartisan pieces
2:52
of legislation that
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SPEAKER_01: were lying around and it was going to pass.
2:56
SPEAKER_01: With large votes, ultimately.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, because the adornments, right?
3:03
SPEAKER_00: It wasn't like backroom deals.
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SPEAKER_00: They were pieces of legislation that themselves had fairly wide support.
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SPEAKER_00: They'd run out of time to pass, so they were tacking them on.
3:15
SPEAKER_01: Right,
3:15
SPEAKER_01: so they were bipartisan,
3:17
but not totally uncontroversial bills that were all kind of
3:22
being folded in to save
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SPEAKER_01: floor time in the Senate,
3:26
SPEAKER_01: right?
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SPEAKER_01: Because separate from the 60 votes you need to clear a filibuster,
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SPEAKER_01: you just need days to sort of shoot down various objections to things.
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So a bunch of different bills that had already passed the
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Republican-controlled
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SPEAKER_01: House had sort of gotten folded into this package.
3:42
SPEAKER_01: Um...
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SPEAKER_01: Then Musk started complaining about this on Twitter in a couple different
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SPEAKER_01: directions sort of simultaneously,
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SPEAKER_01: that like the bill was too long,
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SPEAKER_01: that continuing resolutions were bad,
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SPEAKER_01: that there should be a government shutdown to demand sharp spending cuts.
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SPEAKER_01: Trump said this bill should also lift the debt ceiling.
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SPEAKER_01: There was like a couple days of kind of radical uncertainty.
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Then basically the same CR just got put back together with some
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of the extraneous
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SPEAKER_01: provisions taken out without Trump's debt ceiling thing put in.
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SPEAKER_01: But then there was this,
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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SPEAKER_01: that was interesting,
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SPEAKER_01: but also just like Musk really elevated sort of like old school,
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SPEAKER_01: like Paul Ryan Tea Party style,
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SPEAKER_01: like fiscal concerns in the course of this.
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SPEAKER_01: Then there was this fight about H-1B visas.
4:38
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
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SPEAKER_00: So I feel like
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SPEAKER_00: The remarkable thing in what you said,
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SPEAKER_00: I have lived through a lot of CR fights,
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and then I've lived through at least a couple budget fights
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where they thought they
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SPEAKER_00: had a deal,
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SPEAKER_00: then it all fell apart,
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SPEAKER_00: and then they had to take some stuff out,
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SPEAKER_00: and then something very similar to the original deal ends up passing.
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SPEAKER_00: What is extraordinary about this,
4:59
SPEAKER_00: but I feel like we're talking about it like it's normal,
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SPEAKER_00: is that one of Trump's donors,
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SPEAKER_00: who's also kind of going to be in the administration,
5:07
SPEAKER_00: it seems,
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SPEAKER_00: in this sort of fake but sort of real government efficiency role,
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SPEAKER_00: doge,
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SPEAKER_00: right?
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SPEAKER_00: Front ran the president.
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SPEAKER_00: There was no reporting the effect that Trump really doesn't like this CR.
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And I think that the view on the Hill was that Trump just
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wanted the decks cleared
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SPEAKER_00: before he took office and wasn't going to pay much attention to this.
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And so somebody who should be subordinate to Trump in any
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hierarchy front ran him and risked
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like larding the incoming administration with responsibility
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for a government
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shutdown in a way that you just would never see in any prior
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Republican administration,
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SPEAKER_00: any prior Democratic administration,
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SPEAKER_00: and in no like executive management structure,
5:53
SPEAKER_00: right?
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SPEAKER_00: Like a government, but also a business can't work.
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When there's subversion like that or when you have like
6:03
co-presidents and they
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SPEAKER_00: disagree about what decision to make,
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SPEAKER_00: right?
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SPEAKER_00: Like it just falls apart.
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SPEAKER_01: It's very weird.
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SPEAKER_01: It came back together pretty quickly, but it was an odd –
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SPEAKER_01: And then there was this,
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SPEAKER_01: so a guy named Srinayan,
6:23
SPEAKER_01: I don't know how to say it exactly,
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SPEAKER_01: an Indian American fellow,
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SPEAKER_01: an Andreessen Horowitz guy,
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was appointed to an AI advisor role in the White House Office
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of Science and
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SPEAKER_01: Technology Policy.
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And then some MAGA people dragged up a couple of old tweets
6:41
that he had done about
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the desirability of uncapping green card country caps and doing
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anything to unlock
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skilled immigration and how that would be good for boosting
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American AI policy.
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SPEAKER_01: So they started attacking this guy on the grounds that,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: this was not like MAGA immigration policy.
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SPEAKER_01: Also,
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SPEAKER_00: like his skin was brown and that he was- Well,
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SPEAKER_01: and then it went off to like,
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SPEAKER_01: this is one of these Indian H-1B guys who's destroying America,
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SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
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SPEAKER_01: et cetera.
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SPEAKER_01: And then Musk-
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SPEAKER_01: really went to bat.
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SPEAKER_01: He went hard on this.
7:20
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
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He didn't just defend the guy or say something like he's not in
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an immigration policy role.
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He just came out swinging for skilled immigration,
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for the H-1B program in general.
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SPEAKER_01: He started calling people racist.
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SPEAKER_01: He rallied a lot of other-
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He called Trump's base retarded and told them that they should
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fuck themselves in
7:45
SPEAKER_00: the face,
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SPEAKER_00: I believe,
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SPEAKER_00: were his literal words.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, he didn't say Trump's base, but yes.
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SPEAKER_00: But that's who he was talking to, right?
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Yes,
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and he rallied a lot of other technology sector people behind
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him on this.
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It looked for a minute to me like what was going to happen was
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that some of these
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SPEAKER_01: tech guys were going to remember why it was that the industry had –
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SPEAKER_01: been sort of left-leaning in the recent past,
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SPEAKER_01: which was quite specifically related to these immigration controversies.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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SPEAKER_01: both to the specifics of the immigration controversies,
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but also to the practical reality that it's like if you want
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someone to make tech
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SPEAKER_01: industry-friendly immigration policy choices,
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you want to work with the California congressional delegation
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because those are
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SPEAKER_01: your people.
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SPEAKER_01: And so you need to deal with their concerns, et cetera, et cetera.
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SPEAKER_01: Trump, interestingly...
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SPEAKER_01: got asked about this down in Mar-a-Lago.
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SPEAKER_01: And he said, oh, I've always liked the H-1B program.
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SPEAKER_01: I use a lot of H-1B visas on my properties.
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SPEAKER_01: Wrong.
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SPEAKER_01: Which is not true.
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SPEAKER_01: Trump does use, however, a lot of H-2B visa workers on his properties.
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The H-2B visa program is for low-skilled,
9:04
seasonal,
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non-agricultural workers.
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SPEAKER_00: Are you saying that Trump has some sort of...
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SPEAKER_00: less than thorough understanding of a basic policy issue?
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SPEAKER_00: Does it sound like him?
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I would say that these visa categories are very complicated and
9:18
that a marked
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SPEAKER_00: quality of all sides of this debate was- But H1B and H2B are like-
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SPEAKER_00: They come up a fair amount in immigration policy.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they absolutely do.
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SPEAKER_01: I would say the general tenor of this conversation,
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SPEAKER_01: which happened like over Christmas and was just,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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it was like mostly Jews and Hindus yelling at racists across
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party lines while
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SPEAKER_01: everyone else was on Christmas,
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SPEAKER_01: was not characterized by like really nuanced understanding of issues.
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And that's actually part of what was so striking about Musk's intervention.
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SPEAKER_01: is that like Musk was not making some like really narrow point.
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SPEAKER_01: He was like, all you chuds need to get lost.
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SPEAKER_01: We're going to purge you from the movement.
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SPEAKER_01: And he basically got Trump to agree with him about this.
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And then Musk,
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I mean,
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I think you have to understand that as the context.
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SPEAKER_01: For now in January, Musk has been –
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taking the pro-racist side of some dispute in English politics
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that I don't totally understand,
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SPEAKER_01: I had to say.
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SPEAKER_01: But it seems like he is trying to,
10:30
SPEAKER_01: like,
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SPEAKER_01: re-burnish his cred with these interventions in European politics.
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SPEAKER_01: He has, like...
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SPEAKER_00: He front ran the incoming government again,
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SPEAKER_00: endorsing AFD in Germany,
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SPEAKER_00: which is like the successor party to the Nazis,
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SPEAKER_00: essentially.
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SPEAKER_00: To like to where like J.D.
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SPEAKER_00: Vance tweeted something to the effect of like,
10:55
I am not going to endorse in the German election because we
10:58
want to get along with
10:59
SPEAKER_00: all Germans.
11:00
However,
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AFD is like actually popular where the Nazis were unpopular,
11:05
something like that.
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SPEAKER_00: And it's like, that's not true.
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SPEAKER_01: Also,
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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SPEAKER_01: in the German context,
11:09
SPEAKER_01: right,
11:09
so the incumbent German center-left government is super
11:13
unpopular and is like about
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SPEAKER_01: to lose.
11:16
And there's going to be a center-right government in Germany
11:19
that like the normal
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SPEAKER_01: German conservative party is going to lead.
11:24
And so,
11:25
I don't know,
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it's like a bad look for Trump to,
11:31
I don't know,
11:31
bad look,
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but it's like,
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SPEAKER_01: diplomatically complicated, but like...
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SPEAKER_01: Vance didn't seem like he wanted to just say,
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SPEAKER_01: like,
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SPEAKER_01: we're not going to endorse parties in a foreign country.
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But then Musk went on to this British thing where first he was
11:50
endorsing reform,
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SPEAKER_01: which is the successor party to the UK Independence Party,
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SPEAKER_01: the just kind of like immigration,
11:58
SPEAKER_01: anti-immigration right-wing party in England.
12:00
But then he also started tweeting about how he wants to free
12:04
Tommy Robinson.
12:06
I don't – just sincerely,
12:08
I don't understand exactly what the Tommy Robinson issue is.
12:13
But Tommy Robinson is considered toxic politically by even the
12:19
leaders of the
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SPEAKER_01: Reform Party because he is mixed up with the British National Party,
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SPEAKER_01: which is like too racist for the racists.
12:28
Well,
12:29
and like he specifically – it wasn't his thing to go around
12:31
basically like –
12:33
picking fights with minorities and then videotaping him
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punching people and shit?
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SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
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SPEAKER_01: I really like, I don't want to like...
12:42
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to claim that I totally understand what's happening here.
12:45
SPEAKER_01: That's my recollection from a few years ago.
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SPEAKER_01: Musk endorsed Farage's party.
12:50
SPEAKER_01: Then he endorsed Free Tommy Robinson.
12:52
Then Farage was like,
12:53
I appreciate the support,
12:55
but I do not want to align with Tommy Robinson.
12:58
SPEAKER_01: At which point, Musk started saying that reform needs new leadership.
13:03
SPEAKER_01: The whole party is just Nigel Farage's creation.
13:07
SPEAKER_01: Anyway,
13:07
SPEAKER_01: so he has been really on one about European politics,
13:11
which I think is at least like mostly just trying to like
13:17
recenter after this H1B thing.
13:19
SPEAKER_00: You don't think you don't think it has to do with like,
13:22
SPEAKER_00: you know,
13:23
SPEAKER_00: like Europe and England are giving him giving him shit about.
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SPEAKER_00: content moderation at Twitter or X or whatever.
13:31
SPEAKER_00: And like, he, he just has like, he has beefs.
13:33
And like,
13:34
I think that you can detect beefs in each of these things,
13:37
right?
13:38
SPEAKER_00: Like, yes.
13:39
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
13:39
SPEAKER_01: there,
13:39
SPEAKER_01: there are many beefs,
13:40
SPEAKER_01: but it's,
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SPEAKER_00: it's just such a,
13:44
SPEAKER_01: it's such an expansive global role.
13:47
SPEAKER_01: I mean, especially given how ultimately like in the weeds he got on, uh,
13:56
SPEAKER_01: Some of this stuff,
13:56
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
13:57
SPEAKER_01: I was surprised to see him being,
13:59
SPEAKER_01: like,
14:00
who cares about the legislative strategy around the continuing
14:03
resolution fundamentally,
14:05
SPEAKER_01: right?
14:05
SPEAKER_01: Like,
14:05
SPEAKER_01: this is like the kind of- I mean,
14:07
SPEAKER_00: he almost brought down Mike Johnson as speaker,
14:10
SPEAKER_00: and then Trump had to kind of ride to Johnson's rescue over the CR thing.
14:16
SPEAKER_01: And it's so far afield from, I guess I kind of thought that, like,
14:23
SPEAKER_01: Musk clearly has a lot of interest in space, right?
14:28
SPEAKER_01: Like SpaceX.
14:29
SPEAKER_01: And that he would just like run SpaceX,
14:32
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:33
run like the relevant parts of the government in a way that
14:36
benefited his company
14:38
SPEAKER_01: in like a specific way.
14:39
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
14:41
SPEAKER_01: It's weird to be trying to,
14:44
SPEAKER_01: like,
14:44
SPEAKER_01: mastermind the politics of multiple different countries simultaneously,
14:51
SPEAKER_01: particularly because,
14:52
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:52
SPEAKER_01: it seems like Trump would not want to be upstaged like this.
14:57
And Democrats tried to maybe a little too transparently play
15:02
into that by referring
15:03
SPEAKER_01: to him as President Musk for four days.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: But, like...
15:07
SPEAKER_01: Also, just like we've seen way less of Trump and way less advance.
15:11
SPEAKER_00: I think that's good.
15:12
SPEAKER_00: I think that that's good.
15:13
SPEAKER_00: I think that like they should be trying to drive wedge.
15:16
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's admittedly a little unpredictable, right?
15:18
SPEAKER_00: Like,
15:19
Like you can unleash a different kind of chaos if you
15:24
successfully cleave Trump and Musk apart.
15:26
SPEAKER_00: Like you don't know who wins and what the consequences of that are.
15:29
Like maybe it means you get a harder line immigration policy
15:32
because Musk goes away
15:33
SPEAKER_00: and then so does the H-1B visas or whatever.
15:36
SPEAKER_00: But like I find myself...
15:40
So like I think that was a good encapsulation of like a bunch
15:42
of stuff that happened.
15:44
SPEAKER_00: That you would... It's just like not in anyone's...
15:47
SPEAKER_00: playbook for how a transition or a government would function.
15:51
SPEAKER_00: And I don't have a good handle
15:55
SPEAKER_00: both on what was motivating Musk and what level of involvement,
16:01
SPEAKER_00: if any,
16:02
SPEAKER_00: Trump had in Musk's,
16:06
SPEAKER_00: like,
16:06
SPEAKER_00: what appears to be freelancing,
16:07
SPEAKER_00: right?
16:08
SPEAKER_00: Like,
16:08
I think that you can squint and kind of torture the details a
16:14
little bit and
16:17
SPEAKER_00: imagine that maybe there's some sort of,
16:18
SPEAKER_00: like,
16:19
SPEAKER_00: weird good cop,
16:20
SPEAKER_00: bad cop sort of thing happening here where
16:23
Musk is like a heat shield for Trump taking positions that are
16:28
dangerous for
16:28
SPEAKER_00: Republicans in Congress or like anathema to the MAGA base or,
16:33
SPEAKER_00: or whatever.
16:35
And then,
16:36
and then it sort of becomes a fait accompli and Trump ducks the blame.
16:42
SPEAKER_00: But that is like strikes me as way too Machiavellian.
16:45
SPEAKER_00: And I think if like, if, if like an alien came out,
16:48
down from outer space and like observed the last month ish of
16:52
Republican politics,
16:53
SPEAKER_00: he'd say that like,
16:55
SPEAKER_00: uh,
16:56
Musk has essentially usurped power and the Republicans don't
16:59
really know what to do
17:00
SPEAKER_00: about it because he's too rich.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: He's too well known.
17:03
SPEAKER_00: And he has too much,
17:05
SPEAKER_00: uh,
17:06
SPEAKER_00: um,
17:07
clout within the government through his contracts and clout
17:09
over the Republican
17:10
SPEAKER_00: party through his following online for them to dislodge him.
17:13
SPEAKER_00: So they're stuck, which, um,
17:17
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it seems bad.
17:19
SPEAKER_00: It seems like not great for the legitimacy of the government or for the
17:23
SPEAKER_00: predictability of policy.
17:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, it's like it's hard to say because.
17:31
SPEAKER_01: Well,
17:31
SPEAKER_01: so it seemed to me,
17:32
SPEAKER_01: right,
17:33
SPEAKER_01: if we had recorded right in the midst of the CR fight,
17:36
SPEAKER_01: it seemed to me that Musk was trying to.
17:39
Because like the CR is one of these things where like it
17:42
doesn't really matter,
17:43
SPEAKER_01: but it's like filled with portents.
17:45
And it seemed like Musk was trying to drive the Trump coalition
17:49
in the direction of
17:51
SPEAKER_01: like a,
17:53
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:53
SPEAKER_01: a real sort of like return to austerity fiscal politics.
17:59
SPEAKER_00: Return with a V?
18:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
18:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, right.
18:02
SPEAKER_01: But,
18:02
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:02
SPEAKER_01: that it was like that,
18:03
SPEAKER_01: like,
18:04
we're going to get like this big bait and switch where like a
18:06
lot of wealthy
18:07
business types who had been kind of alienated from the Trump
18:12
era Republican Party
18:14
SPEAKER_01: were coming back to Trump.
18:16
But also they were going to drag the Republican Party back to
18:19
the agenda that they liked more.
18:21
SPEAKER_01: that was going to be just like really,
18:23
SPEAKER_01: really focused on spending cuts and entitlement reform,
18:26
SPEAKER_01: things like that.
18:27
SPEAKER_01: But Musk dropped that like a hot potato.
18:31
SPEAKER_01: Like the day after the...
18:36
SPEAKER_01: The CR controversy got resolved.
18:39
SPEAKER_01: He like completely disengaged from this and hasn't been tweeting about,
18:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:44
the mega reconciliation bill or what to do about the debt
18:48
ceiling or like this $2 trillion.
18:52
SPEAKER_00: But like he didn't tweet about the CR until like days before.
18:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
18:56
SPEAKER_01: Right.
18:56
And so and so and so either you could be like,
18:58
well,
18:59
I didn't get what I wanted.
19:00
SPEAKER_00: And that's fait accompli.
19:01
SPEAKER_00: So I won't try that again.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: Or you could be like, come February, March.
19:05
SPEAKER_00: And I think when is this when is the debt limit?
19:08
SPEAKER_00: I've read different things.
19:09
SPEAKER_00: I think the original forecast was like June,
19:11
SPEAKER_00: but it might actually be April that they have to raise.
19:13
SPEAKER_00: So it's changing.
19:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's always changing.
19:16
SPEAKER_00: So you could look at the same set of events and be like,
19:20
SPEAKER_00: oh,
19:20
there's a decent chance that Elon Musk is going to pop over
19:23
from Doge three days
19:25
before it's incumbent upon Congress to increase the debt limit
19:28
and be like,
19:29
SPEAKER_00: no debt limit without a concomitant spending cuts or whatever.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: And then it's a problem.
19:37
And maybe this is why Trump is trying to get Republicans in
19:41
Congress to increase
19:42
SPEAKER_00: the debt limit now before he's sworn in.
19:44
SPEAKER_01: It is possible.
19:46
SPEAKER_01: You know, I feel like, you know, this is not...
19:52
SPEAKER_01: Not that I've done any better on this,
19:54
but it's like the reporting on what's going on has not really
20:01
answered the question
20:02
SPEAKER_01: of what's going on.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: I don't think there's any way in.
20:06
SPEAKER_01: No, I mean, I guess not.
20:08
I just think one of the challenging things as a consumer of
20:13
mainstream media is
20:14
SPEAKER_01: that it's hard to write stories about what you don't
20:19
SPEAKER_01: No,
20:20
there's actually a good one in Politico today where the
20:23
headline is Trump's one bill,
20:24
SPEAKER_01: two step perplexes GOP senators,
20:27
SPEAKER_01: which is about the closest you ever get to like a lead story being like,
20:31
SPEAKER_01: we don't know what's going on here.
20:33
SPEAKER_01: Well, OK, but I also don't know what's going on.
20:37
SPEAKER_00: OK, but when I worked for TPM, we would be confronted with these things.
20:40
And one of the things we liked about our liberty as like a
20:43
scrappy independent
20:44
SPEAKER_00: publication with like a liberal band.
20:46
SPEAKER_00: was that we could just be like, let's look at the surrounding facts.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: And then instead of writing anything declarative,
20:51
SPEAKER_00: we'll just like five things that might explain what Elon Musk is up to,
20:55
SPEAKER_00: right?
20:56
SPEAKER_00: And one of them could be like,
20:59
there was a provision in the CR that would have made his
21:06
ability to build cars in
21:09
SPEAKER_00: China harder.
21:11
SPEAKER_00: He wanted that.
21:12
SPEAKER_00: His secret motivation was, I want that out of the bill.
21:15
Another possibility is that there was a provision in there to
21:20
squeeze pharmacy
21:22
SPEAKER_00: benefit managers.
21:25
And his nemesis,
21:27
Mark Cuban,
21:28
supports cracking down on pharmacy benefit managers.
21:31
SPEAKER_00: So he wanted that out of the bill.
21:32
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
21:34
SPEAKER_00: That's a possibility, right?
21:36
I suppose the third possibility is that he just got swept up in
21:40
the same kind of
21:41
SPEAKER_00: politics that captured...
21:44
SPEAKER_00: John Boehner and Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz back in 2012 or 2014 or whatever,
21:48
SPEAKER_00: where it was like,
21:49
you just use these cliffs as like a hostage taking opportunity
21:54
to get more of what
21:55
SPEAKER_00: you want.
21:55
SPEAKER_00: And then he learned quickly,
21:56
SPEAKER_00: but the hard way that like,
21:59
that's not a very effective way either to govern or to get
22:02
concessions because the party,
22:06
like the people who have to cast votes in Congress realize
22:08
they're going to catch
22:09
SPEAKER_00: the blame if things go badly.
22:11
SPEAKER_00: And so they,
22:13
SPEAKER_00: They just do their own thing.
22:14
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
22:15
like you can try to speculate about this stuff and like things
22:20
fit the facts,
22:21
SPEAKER_00: but I don't know.
22:21
SPEAKER_01: Right.
22:22
SPEAKER_01: So let's talk about these belts, right?
22:23
So there were basically three major bipartisan riders unrelated
22:29
to the CR that got
22:30
SPEAKER_01: folded into it.
22:32
SPEAKER_01: One was this PBM crackdown.
22:34
This is the thing,
22:35
if you live in Washington,
22:36
D.C.,
22:36
there have been a lot of ads about this.
22:38
SPEAKER_01: It's been all over Commander's Games during football.
22:42
SPEAKER_01: And so basically,
22:43
pharmacy benefit managers are a kind of insurance company
22:49
cutout that tries to use...
22:53
bargaining power to reduce payments that are made to
22:57
pharmaceutical companies.
22:59
SPEAKER_01: And so they will tell you if you ask,
23:01
SPEAKER_01: like,
23:01
SPEAKER_01: what's up with this,
23:03
that they are bringing down prices and they're passing the
23:06
savings on to you.
23:08
SPEAKER_01: Critics have said,
23:08
SPEAKER_01: no,
23:09
this is just a middleman who is grabbing more money and
23:12
bringing costs up.
23:14
A reform bill came together that is supported by the
23:18
pharmaceutical industry that
23:19
SPEAKER_01: would essentially force PBMs
23:24
SPEAKER_01: to pass savings on to consumers.
23:26
SPEAKER_01: And as best I could tell from squinting at all the interests involved,
23:30
this is going to both increase payments to pharmaceutical
23:35
companies and decrease
23:36
SPEAKER_01: prices that are paid by consumers,
23:39
SPEAKER_01: but it's not totally clear what the ratio of those two things is.
23:43
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, it came together in a bipartisan way.
23:45
SPEAKER_01: There was also a bipartisan bill to try to restrict
23:49
SPEAKER_01: American investments in China, right?
23:53
Kind of escalating the Trump Biden era kind of economic warfare
23:58
against China.
23:59
The third thing was going to build a football stadium in Washington,
24:03
D.C.,
24:04
The football thing wound up passing separately on unanimous
24:08
consent because the
24:09
SPEAKER_01: only person objecting to it was Mike Lee,
24:13
SPEAKER_01: and they were able to kind of work sling out with him.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: But these other two- I just learned that for the first time now.
24:18
SPEAKER_00: I thought that that was dead.
24:19
SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
24:20
SPEAKER_01: It's done.
24:20
SPEAKER_01: It's done.
24:20
SPEAKER_00: It's-
24:24
Incredibly convoluted,
24:25
the workout that they came out with Mike Lee,
24:27
but it's done.
24:29
SPEAKER_01: But so the PBM reform and the China investments,
24:33
SPEAKER_01: both,
24:34
SPEAKER_01: you know,
24:35
SPEAKER_01: these are like bipartisan bills,
24:37
SPEAKER_01: but significant numbers of people voted against them.
24:40
SPEAKER_01: So you couldn't get it done that way.
24:43
SPEAKER_01: Now, the China thing seems like legitimately bad for Tesla.
24:51
SPEAKER_01: And so...
24:53
SPEAKER_01: That could be a reason, right?
24:55
SPEAKER_01: Like a real Machiavellian scheme here to kill this.
24:59
And it is interesting that we have not heard like renewed
25:04
activity on this front.
25:06
SPEAKER_01: Like the PBM bill is going to come up again.
25:10
SPEAKER_01: You know, like this is now like...
25:13
SPEAKER_01: a key Democratic priority is like,
25:16
SPEAKER_01: hey,
25:17
SPEAKER_01: Majority Leader Thune,
25:18
SPEAKER_01: we got to schedule the vote on the PBM bill.
25:21
SPEAKER_01: Because it had the votes to pass.
25:23
SPEAKER_01: Schumer hadn't wanted to burn floor time on it.
25:26
SPEAKER_01: But now it's like the shoe's on the other foot, right?
25:28
SPEAKER_01: And this is a good issue for Democrats.
25:31
SPEAKER_01: It's both a way to reduce consumer health care costs and also something
25:35
SPEAKER_01: pharmaceutical industry lobbyists like.
25:38
SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of money into the ads on it.
25:40
SPEAKER_01: This is not going away.
25:42
SPEAKER_01: as a topic, whether it passes or not.
25:45
Outbound investment in China is the kind of obscure thing that
25:49
just like it had a
25:50
critical mass of support in Congress and they were going to get
25:53
it done quietly.
25:54
But if Elon Musk is now the most important person in Republican
25:57
Party politics and
25:59
SPEAKER_01: he wants to be able to build a
26:01
SPEAKER_01: his gigafactories in China.
26:04
SPEAKER_01: You know, that's like a real problem.
26:06
SPEAKER_01: It's a real problem for the legislation.
26:08
SPEAKER_01: And it's a big,
26:10
the big conceptual question is like Trump favors or has
26:16
articulated a position in
26:17
favor of so many anti-China policies that are just
26:21
straightforwardly bad for
26:24
SPEAKER_01: Tesla's business in China.
26:26
SPEAKER_01: And like,
26:29
SPEAKER_01: There have been some articles being like,
26:31
SPEAKER_01: Trump and Musk might disagree about tariffs on China,
26:34
SPEAKER_01: but have they talked about this?
26:37
SPEAKER_01: Is this a conversation at the dinner table at Mar-a-Lago?
26:41
SPEAKER_01: What's actually happening here is very unclear.
26:46
Are they working hand in glove on this stuff and ironing out
26:50
their differences?
26:51
Or are these skirmishes that are setting the stage for a big
26:55
fight about trade?
26:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
26:59
SPEAKER_00: Maybe we should put up a paywall here and talk about like what,
27:06
SPEAKER_00: what we think it's really,
27:08
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
27:09
SPEAKER_00: it's like,
27:09
it should not be this hard to ascertain what an incoming
27:15
government is going to
27:16
SPEAKER_00: attempt to do on the policy front.
27:18
SPEAKER_00: Like you never know what they're going to be able to succeed at.
27:21
SPEAKER_00: Right.
27:21
SPEAKER_00: But like typically in the, in the pre-Trump years,
27:25
they would say some stuff on the campaign trail and then you
27:27
could like take it to
27:28
SPEAKER_00: the bank that when they got into office,
27:29
SPEAKER_00: they would at least give lip service to trying to,
27:32
SPEAKER_00: to get that stuff done.
27:33
SPEAKER_00: Right.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: Like,
27:34
SPEAKER_00: or maybe,
27:35
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:36
SPEAKER_00: like,
27:36
SPEAKER_00: like maybe like,
27:38
SPEAKER_00: uh,
27:38
SPEAKER_00: Oh,
27:39
SPEAKER_00: well,
27:39
SPEAKER_00: look like we had to do healthcare and climate change.
27:41
So card check fell off the priority list,
27:45
but like,
27:46
it's not like I don't support that.
27:47
SPEAKER_00: It just, there's no time, whatever.
27:50
SPEAKER_00: Like,
27:52
This sort of situation where Trump's campaign promises have
28:00
been not very credible
28:02
SPEAKER_00: all along,
28:03
but it seems like Musk is trying to take him in a diametrically
28:09
opposite direction,
28:11
SPEAKER_00: which is...
28:13
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't usually happen, I don't think.
28:16
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, let's talk about it on the other side.
28:18
SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear what we think might happen in January,
28:22
SPEAKER_00: February,
28:22
SPEAKER_00: and beyond,
28:23
SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.
28:26
SPEAKER_01: Bye.