Latest / The SME Stream / Leaving for Oz: Why so many Kiwis are giving up on the local job market

Transcript

Leaving for Oz: Why so many Kiwis are giving up on the local job market · The SME Stream

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Kyoda.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Kiwis are
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: flying the coop, most of them heading for better opportunities
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: across the Tasman. Latest stats and Z figures show just
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: over one hundred and twenty four thousand migrant departures in
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: the year to October, up nearly seven percent, seventy one
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: thousand of them New Zealanders. What is pushing our best
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: and brightest out the door and is the grass really
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: greener on the other side Today on the Front Page
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: ends at Herald Business Editor at Large Liam dan Is
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: with us to dissect what draws Kiwi's abroad and what
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: it all means for the ones sticking around. First off, Liam,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: tell me about these stats and Z figures.
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so we've just had the last lot of migration
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: data that will get for the year and that takes
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: us up to the end of October, and they're still showing,
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: you know, quite historically high levels of departures of Kiwis
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: and other nationalities leaving long term and lower numbers arriving.
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: But the monthly change.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: Does suggest that the worst of the brain drain is
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: behind us, so we're seeing that that net migration figure
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: up slightly. So eleven thousand, three hundred was the net
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: migration number that the sort of excess population gain through
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: to the end of October, and that's yeah, that's better
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: than it was. We'd been down to around nine thousand
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: and something at one point. But all of this is
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: you know, historically very low considering you know, in those
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: big years post COVID, we were seeing like.
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: Migration gains above.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: One hundred thousand I think we had one hundred thirty
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: six or something like that net migration at one point,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: which was a record boom. Obviously we've gone from boom
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: to bust, but hopefully it's some signs there that that's
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: starting to correct.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: And so what's the poll for Kiwi's overseas? Where are
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: they heading?
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: Well, we don't get immediately get up to date numbers
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: around departures to Australia specifically, but we do know that
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: like somewhere around half to sixty percent of all the
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: migration out of New Zealand is towards Australia traditionally, so
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: I would say Australia is where people are headed. We've
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: seen numbers this year, suggesting that higher levels of younger
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: people are going to Australia. And the big push or
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: pull in either direction for migration is very much the economy,
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: very much the job market, the labor market. So you know,
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: if job prospects and wages are significantly better in Australia,
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: then you'll see that flow increase. I mean, you know,
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: historically it's tended to look a bit better in Australia. Yeah,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: most of the time, but you know when that becomes exaggerated.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: And in New Zealand, the job market has been really tough.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: They haven't had the kind of short, sharp economic shock
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: that we've had in New Zealand, so they haven't you know,
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: and then there's some reasons for that, their interest rates
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: and the way that the Reserve Bank has done things
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: there has been to take a more you know, casual
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: pace or a more relaxed attitude to inflation. You know,
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: we've hit it pretty hard in New Zealand, and obviously
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: everybody knows we've had a pretty rough two maybe three
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: years compared to Australia.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: And when it comes to the numbers and the ages
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: of people that are moving overseas as well, we've got that,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: you know, eighteen to thirty year old bracket. That's generally
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: are we crowd, you know, going to London or going
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: to Australia for better opportunities, greener pastures. But what I've
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: found this year especially, and correct me if I'm wrong,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: is that there are older people migrating overseass. Well does
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: that kind of give us a glimpse into how bad
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: the job market is here?
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: Yeah? I think that very much. Is the job market stuff.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: So yeah, you're right.
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: The younger people, well, you can say, you know, they
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: are cooped up. A lot of people were cooped up
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: through COVID. There was a bounce after COVID. Younger Kiwis
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: have always headed offshore to Australia, to the UK and
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: now increasingly if they can get the right visas for
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: the US and Japan and Southeast Asia. So you know,
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't be too worried about that. Hopefully they're going
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: to come back. I'm on that boat. My daughter's off
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: to Melbourne in February, you.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Know, oh yeah, flying the court to live.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: But you know when older people who have established lives,
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: maybe have own property and all that sort of stuff,
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: that is a big effort to move countries, and I
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: don't think you do that unless you're feeling like the
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: opportunity is really lacking in your home country. I mean,
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: that's what we see drive immigration arrivals from some countries
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: into New Zealand, and unfortunately, I think that has been
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: the case. Is you know, we we've really the sentiment
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: in the New Zealand economy has been really bad for
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: the past couple of years. You know, we thought we
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: were having the bad year in twenty twenty four and
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: we're all going to survive till twenty twenty five, and
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: then really twenty twenty five has sort of been a
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: repeat of that. There are signs, and you know I
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: always touch wood and everything, but you know, there's there's
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: a lot of confidence that we are moving into a
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: real recovery. Now, however strong that turns out to be,
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: because you know, there's not it's not expected to be
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: a boom, but any improvement over what we've been through.
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: If we start to see the labor market turn around
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: in the next year ahead, then we will probably see
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: those migration figures continue to improve into a net gain
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: for New Zealand.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Right, so those migration figures really do go hand in
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: hand with the unemployment figures.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Hey yeah, absolutely, and the it's job opportunity and so
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: in some ways it's not just the unemployment, it's the employment,
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: which is job creation and obviously wages. I mean, you know,
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: if you've got a high cost of living and inflation,
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: then higher wages are going to be appealing. But when
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: you look at Australia and New Zealand, now Australia has
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: actually got higher inflation than New Zealand. They're up at
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: three point eight percent inflation. They haven't cut their interest
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: rates the way we have here because of that, and
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: so there are some cost of living issues, you know,
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: being debated pretty intensely in Australia, and so as well
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: as the hope that New Zealand's economy sort of improves
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: in the next year, there is the possibility that life
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: just isn't as easy or as great as it's cracked
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: up to be in Australia and the kind of economy
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: that they're going to have in the next couple of years,
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: especially once you move from you know, like I mentioned
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: my daughter, if you're going to Melbourne to live somewhere
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: in the inner city, in a flat and work in
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: hospitality and all that cool stuff. That's quite fun not
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: and you're very mobile. But when you talk about moving
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: the family and having to have a mortgage and and
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: really that full adult life, that's you know, a different story,
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: and you start to weigh the economic differential a lot
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: more carefully.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: At that point, I think, yeah, so the grass may
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: seem greener on the other side, because I mean I
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: only know this because my parents ask me every time
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: I have with them what petrol with petrol prices are
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: and then they, you know, come back with me and
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: shock or about how expensive it is in New Zealand.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: Dad always asks me, what's what's the price per kilo
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: for chicken lamb chops?
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: There we worry about.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: We worry about the you know, things like the supermarket
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: prices and petrol and that sort of stuff.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: But I think, you know, if you are.
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: Trying to buy a house in a in a sort
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: of in a suburb of Sydney or Melbourne, you know,
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: that's where you're suddenly blown out of the water in
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: terms of even even with a better, better wage, probably
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: in a basic job. So there are some things, I mean,
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: you know, there are parts of Australia probably where it's
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: still really appealing, but they are booming. So you know,
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: you've got Western Australia in Perth Adelaide obviously, and probably
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: still the parts of Queensland where kiwis are finding it
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: really good. There's still the government still probably well always
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: has more money than New Zealand's government, so it's able
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: to entice people with the kind of skills they need,
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: like nurses and police and all that.
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: Sort of stuff.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: So that's a but that is a constant historical drag
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: on New Zealand's younger population. So I doubt we're ever
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: going to see it, you know, completely go away. But
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: it's just at the kind of worrying levels we've seen
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: in the past year where it sort of felt like
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: we're losing an outsize number of people and that could
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: have an impact on our skills and our labor market.
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: You know, in the coming year or two, as our
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: market actually improves and we businesses start looking for workers again,
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: you know, will we have the skills in New Zealand,
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: we could suddenly go from you know, from that sort
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: of rising unemployment and a sort of a labor market
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: that's really weak to being at capacity again and that
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: drives inflation.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: In recessionary times, as we've seen on our past, people
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: will make choices to go to places where they perceive
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: there's more opportunity, and then when there's a job of
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: our government is to create the conditions that they can
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: see a future here and that we can do that.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: But we've got some work to do to me well,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: i mean, when do you.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Think this country will be good enough for them to return?
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean we're doing everything. You can't say a date,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: but what you can do is make sure everything you're
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: doing every day is about doing the things that if
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I honestly believe, if we grow the economy, if we
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: restore or in order to deliver world class education, better healthcare,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: that is the reason white people stay here.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: So governments from Muldoon to lux And have always quipt
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: about raising the IQ of both countries when it comes
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: to Kiwi's going to Australia. But on this side of
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: the Tasman, what kind of retention policies or super or
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: tax tweaks or something do you think would actually stem
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: this tide?
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, the bottom line is it's getting
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: wages up, and of course it's got to be getting
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: wages up without just artificially inflating them. I mean, New
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: Zealand's done some work around the minimum wage under the
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: last labor government, which probably makes the entry level jobs
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: more appealing here, but probably also has meant that there's
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: been some sort of inflationary pressure. So these are the
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: productivity challenges to make your economy more efficient and create
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: wealth progress towards more wealthy economy In real terms. Both
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: New Zealand and Australia actually have very similar issues with
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: that right at the moment. So while the top level
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: in Australia is sort of frothier and there's more money,
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: it's a bigger country, it's got bigger financial markets and
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: all these things going for it, not to mention the
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: you know, the huge amount of super superanuation money and
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: all that sort of stuff underlying it. Their treasury is
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: saying the same things to their government that our treasury
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: is saying, which is that the economy is not sort
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: of structured well enough to go through a big economic
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: boom without hitting capacity constraints. And that just is what
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: economists say when they mean, you know, a speed limit
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: to the economy. The point at which the economy can't
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: grow any faster without becoming inflationary and interest rates having
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: to go up. So you know, Australia, because it's kept growing,
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: is very near that at the moment you're seeing, you know,
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: as I mentioned, higher inflation and the Reserve Bank.
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: They're talking about people talking.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: About the Reserve Bank of Australia having to put rates
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: up the next move they've held them for the past
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: few decisions, and maybe putting them up much sooner than
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: new Zen.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: You've covered brain drains before. It's kind of like a
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: buzz term hanging whenever there's a lot of kiwis going overseas,
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: not even just to Australia but Europe and like you said,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: the US as well. Compared to the two thousands peaks.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: What's different this time, do you think?
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, in some ways, it's not necessarily that different.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: It's always there is always a cycle, and there's a
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: cyclical element to it. It's just I think this one
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: is we've gone from a record high to not quite
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: record lows because we've been into the negative net migration before,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: but down to historic lows below the historic average very quickly.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: So for the rest of you know, for the wider
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: economy to be running with you know, like population gains
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: every year of around one hundred thousand to suddenly only
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: getting about ten thousand a year. That has a huge
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: impact on, you know, the way that businesses have to
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: gear themselves for an economy. So construction, car sales, you know,
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: retail to some extent, the housing market are underpinned by
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: population growth, or get used to being underpinned by population
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: growth and quite large population growth traditionally, and suddenly that's
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: not there. That's what the economists will call ahead wind.
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: So that's another reason that the downturn in New Zealand
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: may have been a bit worse than expected. It's kind
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: of a chicken and egg what comes first, because, as
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: I say, the bad job market, people leave, but then
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: as they leave, there's a few people spending money and
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: that contributes. So you've got to break that cycle. And yeah,
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: I think you know, a lot of that is sentiment
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: and confidence and how people feel about the country they're
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: living in. So that's the challenge for the government. That's
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: Chris Luxen's mojo line, you know, getting mojo back into
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: New Zealand so people feel better. Young people feel like
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: this country has got opportunity and presents them with a
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: sort of viable future, and maybe we're just starting to
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: see some signs. Certainly there's a bit of a down
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: so long it looks like up vibe to it, because
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: you know, it's not like we're everybody's suddenly over the
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: moon confident, but people aren't as gloomy as they were, say,
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: six months ago in this country and that's looking promising.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, from all of the columns you've written and the
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: people that you've spoken to and the conversations that you've
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: had with experts and things like that, do you have
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: kind of I mean, if you were to think about it,
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: what are the first two or three things that quickly
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: come to mind that you would say to a young
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: person to try and change their mind, or would you
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: even I.
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: Haven't well, you know, I've mentioned my daughter.
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: I haven't tried to change your mind, because I think
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: that is I think it's a great thing on many
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: levels that Kiwis go out to the world, because we
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: can get a bit insular in New Zealand and we
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: and so you know, and in my case, you know,
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: working and living in London, you know, changed my perspective
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: on the world. You bring back a lot of extra
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: experience and knowledge, and I think that's important for New Zealand.
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: It's just just a case of keeping it in balance.
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: I would certainly reiterate to people longer term in terms
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: of building a life here, that New Zealand is really
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: well placed in the world if we can get a
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: few things structurally fixed up in our economy to be
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: one of the greatest and I think is one of
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: the greatest places to live in the world. Still, there
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: are some structural and balances in the economy that mean
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: that we've been struggling to grow at a decent pace.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: There'll always be cyclical ups and downs.
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, we.
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: Grow grass and produce meat and dairy and that goes
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: out to the world and those prices go up and down.
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: New Zealand has sort of buffeted along by the global
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: economy and fuels those ups and downs quite strongly because
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: we're a small, open economy. But you know, in terms
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: of lifestyle and opportunity, I think I think it's still
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: there and will certainly come back. I think there's plenty
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: of potential that you've only.
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: Got to look at.
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: How you know, ratings agencies look at New Zealand how
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: international commentators and economists like some of the most upbeat
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: economists about New Zealand. I talk to the Australian economists,
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: they look at us and go, what are you complaining about?
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's the vibe I get them from them.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for joining us, Liam Jeers, Chelsea. That set
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: for this episode of the Front Page. You can read
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who is also our editor.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: for another look behind the headlines.