Latest / WiseKracks / March Madness 1st Round Bets with Alan Boston & Krackman! | 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hey guys, Bill Krachenberger over here with Alan Boston doing
- 0:03Speaker 1: our show live at the West Gate. Thanks for them
- 0:06Speaker 1: to uh letting us film here and giving them some
- 0:08Speaker 1: good press too. And reduced juice. You know who else
- 0:11Speaker 1: has reduced juice on games? So one on nine juice
- 0:15Speaker 1: on their games.
- 0:15Speaker 2: Instead of one one.
- 0:17Speaker 1: You know, there's no one else really good. They'll go
- 0:19Speaker 1: to one on five on on prime Time, two on
- 0:22Speaker 1: NFL games Monday, Thursday and Sunday, one on five juice
- 0:25Speaker 1: on OLL their games the other games. So guys, all right,
- 0:28Speaker 1: Alan Boston's here and we have a big crowd here.
- 0:31Speaker 1: That's that showed up. Alan was right, we're gonna break
- 0:33Speaker 1: down a big crowd. I think it is got twenty people.
- 0:37Speaker 3: That's a lot.
- 0:38Speaker 4: Yeah, I would have bet over really well, there's no Richie.
- 0:42Speaker 1: Yeah, we' supposed to be at Richie Bachelary. He's a
- 0:44Speaker 1: nose show again he always does.
- 0:46Speaker 4: We're mad at least it wasn't a flight to New York, right,
- 0:49Speaker 4: that was.
- 0:49Speaker 3: A bad one.
- 0:50Speaker 1: Okay, So start we're gonna go right in with the
- 0:53Speaker 1: with the the playing games here Howard and Marilyn Baltimore County.
- 0:59Speaker 3: What do you have on that. When would you make
- 1:01Speaker 3: that game.
- 1:04Speaker 4: My turn?
- 1:04Speaker 2: Yeah?
- 1:05Speaker 4: I made Howard. The game's gotten bombed. Uh. It opened
- 1:10Speaker 4: uh Baltimore count like two two and a half or something. However,
- 1:18Speaker 4: Howard won now, so it's nothing but I I uh
- 1:21Speaker 4: if I had a key on on one thing. Howard
- 1:23Speaker 4: went to Drexel and led wire to wire up at Drexel,
- 1:26Speaker 4: and then the next game went into UNC Wilmington and
- 1:29Speaker 4: and won there too. Uh in a low scoring game,
- 1:32Speaker 4: which bodes well for a tournament environment against a team
- 1:36Speaker 4: that got red hot at the end of the year
- 1:38Speaker 4: Baltimore County. But there's no way Baltimore County could could
- 1:42Speaker 4: come closer to winning in Drexel or winning in Wilmington.
- 1:46Speaker 4: And if and Howard, who also got better at the
- 1:48Speaker 4: end of the year, plays anything like that, then this
- 1:50Speaker 4: actually might be an easy one. So I definitely like Howard.
- 1:54Speaker 4: But the game's been been bet where it's probably not
- 1:57Speaker 4: worth it.
- 1:58Speaker 1: Okay, so you wouldn't recommend it best that minus one
- 2:00Speaker 1: or now Okay, next one, NC State Texas looks like
- 2:05Speaker 1: NC State's now one one.
- 2:06Speaker 3: And a half.
- 2:07Speaker 4: Yeah again, this gut that's the right way. However, I
- 2:10Speaker 4: will say this, they played earlier in the year. I'm
- 2:13Speaker 4: doing this in memory, by the way, so if I
- 2:14Speaker 4: screw up, I apologize. They played earlier in the year
- 2:19Speaker 4: in a tournament and NC State was a one and
- 2:21Speaker 4: a half point favorite and lost one two ninety seven,
- 2:25Speaker 4: which is kind of irrelevant for this. However, Texas hit
- 2:29Speaker 4: sixteen out of thirty two threes in that game and
- 2:32Speaker 4: that's not repeatable. So whatever SC State screwed up that game,
- 2:37Speaker 4: they kind of played a matchup zone NC State and
- 2:40Speaker 4: Texas actually found a way to dissect it, which is weird.
- 2:42Speaker 4: I would expect that NC State will make the necessary tweaks,
- 2:46Speaker 4: and although they ended the year imploding, they really had
- 2:52Speaker 4: zero good games to end the year, that means nothing
- 2:54Speaker 4: because it's a new lease on life the NCAA tournament,
- 2:59Speaker 4: so I think gets he's it's gonna beat him. I
- 3:01Speaker 4: don't have much respect for Texas, and I think NSC
- 3:04Speaker 4: State's best game is far superior to Texas's best game,
- 3:09Speaker 4: So the NC State or nobody. Okay, my line is
- 3:14Speaker 4: sc State one and a half, by the way, but
- 3:15Speaker 4: it kind of feels like it could be higher.
- 3:19Speaker 1: Going to tomorrow's games here Lehigh and Prairie view A
- 3:22Speaker 1: and m Lehigh opened up three.
- 3:24Speaker 3: They're still about three three.
- 3:25Speaker 4: And a half, so Lee High early and so I'm
- 3:32Speaker 4: commenting on non conference games because conference and non conference
- 3:37Speaker 4: are a whole different world. Conference is what matters most
- 3:41Speaker 4: for most of these teams, but when you're in the
- 3:43Speaker 4: NCAA tournament, you're playing non conference teams. So I try
- 3:46Speaker 4: to hone in on what they did in a non
- 3:48Speaker 4: conference which sometimes is irrelevant because early in the year,
- 3:53Speaker 4: with most of these teams having a lot of new players,
- 3:56Speaker 4: the coach can't put his system at the place. So
- 3:59Speaker 4: we High early in the year played a tournament I
- 4:02Speaker 4: believe in Vegas. They took Santa Barbara to the wire
- 4:05Speaker 4: and then they beat Texas State, both very very very
- 4:08Speaker 4: good efforts. The coaches doctor Brett Reid, He's been there
- 4:11Speaker 4: a long time. He had a great point guard. They
- 4:14Speaker 4: beat Duke one of ye at that point guard who
- 4:16Speaker 4: ended up in the NBA, whose name escapes me, but
- 4:19Speaker 4: good program, who's fallen on hard times lately and doesn't
- 4:23Speaker 4: figure to get any better because the world's changed and
- 4:26Speaker 4: the haves have it and the have nots have no chance.
- 4:29Speaker 4: And we won't get into that because We've been enough time,
- 4:31Speaker 4: but I get into it enough during the year. Purview
- 4:35Speaker 4: great coach, one of the best. He's also been there
- 4:38Speaker 4: a long time ten or eleven years Byron Smith. Fantastic
- 4:41Speaker 4: coach whose team got way way better again at the
- 4:45Speaker 4: end of the year. Early in the year they played
- 4:48Speaker 4: North Texas, really tough at North Texas, and they had
- 4:53Speaker 4: one other good game, Oh Tennessee Martin on are neutral.
- 4:55Speaker 4: They almost beat them, which is a very very good
- 4:57Speaker 4: game relatively speaking to what they're playing. Tennis See, Martin's
- 5:00Speaker 4: way better than Lehigh. So I'm believing Prairieview is big
- 5:03Speaker 4: improvement at the end of the year. I think it's
- 5:04Speaker 4: legit because the coach is so good and I think
- 5:07Speaker 4: they're a great bet. I think they should be favored.
- 5:10Speaker 4: So I would definitely go with Praiview. Plus three and
- 5:14Speaker 4: a half was in Houston, by the way, in case
- 5:16Speaker 4: you wondering where the hell they are, the guy from
- 5:17Speaker 4: Texas would.
- 5:18Speaker 3: Know that, all right.
- 5:20Speaker 1: Next one, SMU opened up nine over Miami, Ohio down
- 5:25Speaker 1: to seven six and a half in a couple spots.
- 5:28Speaker 4: Yeah, so so yeah, they bet this the right way.
- 5:33Speaker 4: Like SMU is not very good, their best win was
- 5:36Speaker 4: probably beating Texa A and M in overtime, and they
- 5:39Speaker 4: were four down with fifteen seconds ago in that game.
- 5:41Speaker 4: So other than that, they their wins were in good situations,
- 5:45Speaker 4: and in fact they were life and death with Florida State.
- 5:49Speaker 2: With Virginia Tech.
- 5:50Speaker 4: They lost to NC State in the game they had
- 5:52Speaker 4: to have. So there's nothing on their resume that says
- 5:54Speaker 4: they're any good at all. Miami Oh, yeah, they played
- 5:58Speaker 4: shit all year, but they they for the last fifteen
- 6:02Speaker 4: games of the year when they were undefeated, they got
- 6:04Speaker 4: everyone's best shot. So Miamio, in spite of not playing anybody,
- 6:07Speaker 4: they got everyone's best shot the last fifteen games. Aaron
- 6:09Speaker 4: beat them all. They're a very very good team. They
- 6:12Speaker 4: overcame the loss of their point guard early in the year.
- 6:16Speaker 4: They're one of the teams that actually maintained a lot
- 6:18Speaker 4: of players, which you see the result when when some
- 6:21Speaker 4: good coaches can hold on to some players and have
- 6:24Speaker 4: some continuity within this system, you don't have to reteach
- 6:26Speaker 4: the system to guys coming from all over the planet.
- 6:30Speaker 4: So one would have expected Miami O maybe to fizzle
- 6:33Speaker 4: out as the year went on, because they started with
- 6:36Speaker 4: that edge of having players back and having some system
- 6:39Speaker 4: in place.
- 6:40Speaker 2: But that's not what happened at all.
- 6:41Speaker 4: They kept playing to a very high level, and this
- 6:44Speaker 4: story is amazing, and they're a legit good team. They're
- 6:47Speaker 4: not great, they don't belong in the tournament technically, but
- 6:49Speaker 4: if they left them out, there would have been World
- 6:51Speaker 4: War three. And I only make the game four, So
- 6:57Speaker 4: even at the Bangdal price of seven, i'd be on Miami.
- 7:00Speaker 1: Oh okay, someone just asked me something I was gonna
- 7:03Speaker 1: saving for the end. But it's regarding in the prayer view.
- 7:06Speaker 1: So he said that you have Prairie View favorite someone.
- 7:09Speaker 3: In the audience.
- 7:10Speaker 2: I have half a point favorite.
- 7:12Speaker 1: Okay, so four points a four point swing, that's what
- 7:14Speaker 1: he's saying. That that would be a bigger bet for you.
- 7:19Speaker 4: Technically, Yes, if it was one in as strain and
- 7:21Speaker 4: after you're winning on two and three, so it's a
- 7:23Speaker 4: it's a really big bet.
- 7:24Speaker 3: Thank you for the question.
- 7:24Speaker 4: Yeah, and but but I also have to have some
- 7:28Speaker 4: confidence in the number I make, and I don't really
- 7:30Speaker 4: track Lehigh and Piriview a heck of a lot. I wasn't.
- 7:35Speaker 4: I wasn't involved in having to put up numbers on
- 7:38Speaker 4: them all year, but I still track them pretty well,
- 7:40Speaker 4: and I still know the teams.
- 7:41Speaker 2: Pretty well, And yeah, I umbelieving.
- 7:43Speaker 4: Prairie views late season rush as meaning they got better.
- 7:47Speaker 4: He basically only uses six guys. And sometimes when you
- 7:50Speaker 4: narrow it and just go with what you got and
- 7:53Speaker 4: and they find some sort of rhythm and the coach
- 7:56Speaker 4: is fantastic, then then then I'm believing all their all
- 8:00Speaker 4: the good games they played at the end of the year.
- 8:02Speaker 2: It doesn't have to be that way.
- 8:03Speaker 4: Some of these teams finished the year great and then
- 8:05Speaker 4: bomb out in the first round of the tournament.
- 8:07Speaker 2: But with this coach, with with with.
- 8:10Speaker 4: The way this went down where one of the best
- 8:12Speaker 4: players came back from injury and he doesn't even play
- 8:14Speaker 4: him that much, one would think that this team got
- 8:17Speaker 4: legitimately better. And like I said, they hung with Tennessee
- 8:21Speaker 4: Martin and almost won in North Texas who lay over
- 8:24Speaker 4: Lee High. So I think I think this one's gonna Yeah,
- 8:26Speaker 4: I think it's gonna win. So the answer is, but yes, technically,
- 8:28Speaker 4: when I have it a half and it's three and
- 8:30Speaker 4: a half, it's an all inner. But I don't have
- 8:32Speaker 4: a lot of confidence in a number because I'm not
- 8:34Speaker 4: all in tracking these teams every day.
- 8:36Speaker 1: So all right, let's go with through the big Thursday
- 8:39Speaker 1: games start out with Louisville minus four and a half.
- 8:43Speaker 2: Five.
- 8:43Speaker 3: Actually, there's four and.
- 8:44Speaker 1: A half and five and a half on the screen, so, uh,
- 8:47Speaker 1: pick your you know, if you have to have a
- 8:48Speaker 1: lot of sports books, if you're here at super Book,
- 8:50Speaker 1: you have five and a half. If you have MGM,
- 8:51Speaker 1: it's four and a half. So Louisville South Florida hoping
- 8:55Speaker 1: up six.
- 8:56Speaker 4: It's kind of a tricky game. If the game was
- 8:58Speaker 4: played two months ago, Louisville would have been a ten
- 9:00Speaker 4: point favorite. Uh. But Louisville, a lot of their wins
- 9:05Speaker 4: are now appear little flawed. They beat Indiana, who ended
- 9:08Speaker 4: up being just not very good. Kentucky. That Kentucky win
- 9:13Speaker 4: doesn't look as good. And again I'm doing this. Remember
- 9:18Speaker 4: he's so sorry. They had one other game that that
- 9:21Speaker 4: that didn't age well. House that South Florida. The other hand,
- 9:26Speaker 4: early in the year they were terrible. But the hosts
- 9:27Speaker 4: the Coast is Bryan Hodge that he's very very good.
- 9:30Speaker 4: His Arkansas state teams got better as the year went on.
- 9:33Speaker 4: He's a Natoates guy, so he knows what he's doing.
- 9:36Speaker 4: And even even though I can't stand Natoates as a
- 9:39Speaker 4: with his decisions that he made, he knows what he's doing.
- 9:41Speaker 2: And this guy knows what he's doing.
- 9:43Speaker 4: And yeah, one could argue they beat up on a
- 9:45Speaker 4: bunch of crap in the in the American Athletic Conference. However, uh,
- 9:49Speaker 4: they had just beaten Wichita in Wichita. And when a
- 9:53Speaker 4: team goes into another team's home for it, even in
- 9:57Speaker 4: a conference tournament, the team that lost at home for
- 9:59Speaker 4: typically plays with more of an edge. And South Florida
- 10:04Speaker 4: still overcame that and one rather easily, now, which the
- 10:07Speaker 4: state's no great team, but they're pretty good. So South
- 10:09Speaker 4: Florida did nothing wrong in the entire last two months
- 10:11Speaker 4: of the year, and and it's hard to it's hard
- 10:14Speaker 4: to not give them a lot of credit for what
- 10:17Speaker 4: they did. And if you give them all the credit
- 10:19Speaker 4: in the world, then this game could be as low
- 10:21Speaker 4: as like two. I'm not doing that because maybe they're
- 10:23Speaker 4: just good at beating teams that they're better than. And
- 10:26Speaker 4: and maybe when they step up in class, they're they're
- 10:29Speaker 4: in a world of trouble. But they stepped up in
- 10:31Speaker 4: class earlier year they got killed by uh, I forget
- 10:35Speaker 4: Virginia Comwalt. Maybe yeah, I think it was Virginia Comwealt
- 10:40Speaker 4: that ran them out of the gym. Yeah, their early
- 10:42Speaker 4: season results weren't that good, but the latest season results
- 10:45Speaker 4: were amazing. And Louisville is probably a tad overrated. Their
- 10:47Speaker 4: point guard Brown missed the conference tournament. He's probably not
- 10:50Speaker 4: gonna be one hundred percent. Uh So I put the
- 10:54Speaker 4: line about three and a half, and I would definitely
- 10:56Speaker 4: lean to uh to South Florida, but not a lot
- 11:00Speaker 4: of alacrity. Not with much alacrity. I misused the word
- 11:03Speaker 4: alacrity cheerful willingness. That's what Electary means. He got misused
- 11:07Speaker 4: in a Star Trek episode. Really pissed me off. Spocked
- 11:11Speaker 4: told Captain Kirk with alacrity, captain, and it doesn't mean fast,
- 11:14Speaker 4: it means with a cheerful willingness.
- 11:15Speaker 3: So all right, this game hasn't there.
- 11:18Speaker 4: Yeah, I know, mister English major year, this game.
- 11:19Speaker 1: Hasn't went anywhere. Michigan State opened sixteen.
- 11:22Speaker 4: Sometimes teams don't go anywhere.
- 11:24Speaker 3: Yeah, still sixteen.
- 11:25Speaker 2: You have to write a bet over North Dakota State.
- 11:27Speaker 4: My number is thirteen, and I think that's a rock
- 11:30Speaker 4: solid number. North Dakota State Dave Richmond. I have been
- 11:33Speaker 4: a fan of his, but his team's again they get
- 11:35Speaker 4: better as a year going on every year. They what
- 11:40Speaker 4: did they do? Oh oh yeah, so they played early
- 11:47Speaker 4: in the year again, I'm going back to the non conference.
- 11:49Speaker 4: They played a tournament where a took Arkansas State to
- 11:52Speaker 4: the wire on the road, a very very very good effort.
- 11:55Speaker 4: And they played Calravine to it standstill on a neutral court,
- 11:59Speaker 4: an amazing effort. Both very good teams. So they're legit
- 12:04Speaker 4: good now. Michigan State obviously is in a different class,
- 12:08Speaker 4: but they weren't supposed to be that good this year.
- 12:10Speaker 4: And once again Izzo has made.
- 12:12Speaker 2: The whole better than the sum of the parts.
- 12:16Speaker 4: But they're not athletically going to overwhelm North Dakota State.
- 12:20Speaker 4: And because of that, clearly the guy's doing something right
- 12:26Speaker 4: at North Dakota State. And if they can hang with
- 12:29Speaker 4: Irvine on a neutralol, and if they can take Arkansas
- 12:31Speaker 4: Take to the wire on the road, they could certainly
- 12:33Speaker 4: hang with Michigan State on a neutral court. And I
- 12:35Speaker 4: would be taking sixteen for something not a big bet
- 12:38Speaker 4: because these these double digit favorites, the points aren't as valuable,
- 12:42Speaker 4: like a game from two to three is the same
- 12:44Speaker 4: as a game from thirteen to fifteen. Probably the one
- 12:47Speaker 4: point gap there is probably comparable to a two point
- 12:49Speaker 4: gap there. If that doesn't make sense, we'll explain it later.
- 12:52Speaker 1: But plus sixteen and a half minus z nine right here, Yeah,
- 12:55Speaker 1: this would be the place to better. Someone asked something
- 12:57Speaker 1: earlier about that, Sega, this game, would this be considered
- 12:59Speaker 1: a North Dakota State plus nine and a half minus
- 13:02Speaker 1: so five?
- 13:02Speaker 3: First half? Would you mess with the first half? Year?
- 13:05Speaker 3: First half?
- 13:06Speaker 1: Sometimes and we said in the past we're good bets
- 13:09Speaker 1: on certain games.
- 13:10Speaker 2: On this particular one.
- 13:11Speaker 4: Nah, probably okay, Yeah, the underdog usually can hang and
- 13:17Speaker 4: sometimes they crack because Michigan State is very physical and
- 13:20Speaker 4: and and the problem with the nil world is is
- 13:23Speaker 4: the mid majors. You know, one team's playing a million
- 13:25Speaker 4: for a player and he's paying one hundred thousand, like
- 13:27Speaker 4: you know, who's getting the better player. And someone made
- 13:29Speaker 4: a comment when when they walk on to court the
- 13:31Speaker 4: mid major versus the the elite, you can see the differences,
- 13:35Speaker 4: like the men against the boys. And last year, these
- 13:40Speaker 4: these North Dakota State types, which I'll talk about a
- 13:43Speaker 4: little bit later did not do well, and and and
- 13:46Speaker 4: in the years for years and years and years. These
- 13:48Speaker 4: are the type of games that win. But last year, no,
- 13:50Speaker 4: they got I was terrible the first roule.
- 13:52Speaker 3: Last year.
- 13:53Speaker 4: I wish you should know going in that I sucked.
- 13:56Speaker 3: But you've run the gamut many years too.
- 13:58Speaker 4: Though, So there's some So some of these dogs are
- 14:01Speaker 4: fraught with danger. That's what I'm saying. I wouldn't go
- 14:04Speaker 4: crazy on some of these dogs. But yeah, the plus
- 14:08Speaker 4: nine and a half first half makes some sense because
- 14:10Speaker 4: because it's the men against the boys, as the game
- 14:13Speaker 4: wears on, the men will wear the boys down. At
- 14:16Speaker 4: some point, your kid grows up and he's bigger and
- 14:18Speaker 4: stronger than you, but in this instance, that ain't happening.
- 14:22Speaker 4: They're already grown up and they're already bigger and stronger,
- 14:24Speaker 4: and bigger and stronger wears out the smaller team.
- 14:27Speaker 2: So that could happen here.
- 14:30Speaker 4: So yeah, the question is relevant, and maybe plus nine
- 14:33Speaker 4: and a half is a better way to go. I
- 14:34Speaker 4: will say this that to counter that somewhat, And maybe
- 14:38Speaker 4: this spread isn't high enough. Unlike during the year where
- 14:42Speaker 4: net ranking points matter, which is completely moronic. Like everything else,
- 14:45Speaker 4: the NCAA does. Everything's rigged for the big boys. They
- 14:51Speaker 4: use net ranking, so they're encouraging teams to run up scores,
- 14:54Speaker 4: which is completely fucking ridiculous. Sorry Westgate during the SA tourner.
- 15:03Speaker 4: But you just have to win, and there should be
- 15:07Speaker 4: sentiment sent him to get your bench in the game.
- 15:08Speaker 4: God forbid to get an injury. You play a double
- 15:11Speaker 4: overtime game, we have to go to a bench. So
- 15:14Speaker 4: it would be smart, which Matt Painter did. By the way,
- 15:17Speaker 4: against UCLA, he got a big early lead, it looked.
- 15:19Speaker 2: Like they were gonna win.
- 15:20Speaker 4: Usually had had two starters now out and it worked.
- 15:24Speaker 4: He had a much fresher team because of that. Well,
- 15:27Speaker 4: they're playing on Saturday. It'll be a tougher opponent of
- 15:29Speaker 4: Michigan State. So in theory, it would be smart for
- 15:32Speaker 4: him to use his bench a little bit more here.
- 15:34Speaker 4: And Izzo is not one to run up scores, so
- 15:37Speaker 4: there could be some backdoor. Big Maybe sixteen isn't high enough,
- 15:40Speaker 4: but anyway, next, all.
- 15:42Speaker 3: Right, Georgia Saint Louis minus two to two and.
- 15:45Speaker 4: A half, let's come down a little bit.
- 15:46Speaker 3: Yep, it was three and a half for a minute.
- 15:51Speaker 4: Saint Louis completely fell apart the last month of the
- 15:53Speaker 4: year completely. They would have been minimum three a month ago. Favorite. However,
- 16:05Speaker 4: the level they were playing out was unsustainable. They were
- 16:08Speaker 4: playing more rating that they couldn't possibly continue to play
- 16:10Speaker 4: to and things always seek stasis, right, So Saint Louis
- 16:14Speaker 4: crashing at the end of the year almost was expected.
- 16:17Speaker 4: There was also the minor issue of Robbie Villa, who's
- 16:19Speaker 4: their best player, having planted fash itis, So what helps
- 16:23Speaker 4: planet fashed itis? Rest, little injection, little rest. So they're
- 16:28Speaker 4: getting knocked out and that that tournament probably helps them
- 16:30Speaker 4: more than hurts them. They got knocked out in the
- 16:32Speaker 4: second round the so that one extra day could help
- 16:34Speaker 4: them quite a bit. Here, there's also the fact that
- 16:37Speaker 4: Georgia isn't very good. All their wins came in great
- 16:40Speaker 4: situations to beat Alabim.
- 16:42Speaker 2: Malhome in a blame duck game, but early in either
- 16:44Speaker 2: their life and.
- 16:45Speaker 4: Death with Georgia Tech, which is just disgusting. Yeah, they
- 16:50Speaker 4: have zero good wins, so I actually could see their
- 16:56Speaker 4: rating being lower, whereas Saint Louis when they were at
- 16:58Speaker 4: their best, they went into Virginia and won the game,
- 17:01Speaker 4: and that happens like once every two years. So not
- 17:06Speaker 4: only do I think say it was a better team,
- 17:08Speaker 4: but Mike White is a moron and Josh Shurtz is terrific.
- 17:11Speaker 4: So it's a total coaching mismatch. And I think this
- 17:14Speaker 4: game is bot a line stealing. So Saint Louis plus
- 17:17Speaker 4: two all.
- 17:18Speaker 1: In plus two minus zho nine here plus two and
- 17:21Speaker 1: a half minus oh five.
- 17:22Speaker 4: Plus two and a half is better than plus two
- 17:24Speaker 4: minus z nine. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, plus two and
- 17:27Speaker 4: a half minus fifteen plus two minus nine.
- 17:28Speaker 3: Plus two and a half minus fifteen.
- 17:30Speaker 4: Yeah, just c and o plus two a half minus fifteen
- 17:32Speaker 4: is better. And if you can buy a three minus
- 17:35Speaker 4: a quarter, you're stealing, which you can't because Chris has
- 17:39Speaker 4: lost their minds.
- 17:41Speaker 1: Chris is a disgusting book. Off Shore comes up with
- 17:43Speaker 1: the lines first. Usually they didn't. This year, Duke opened
- 17:47Speaker 1: up twenty seven and a half, got bet up to
- 17:49Speaker 1: twenty nine and a half, back down to twenty eight
- 17:51Speaker 1: and a half over Sienna.
- 17:53Speaker 4: So Duke had two starters out during the conference tournament
- 17:57Speaker 4: and probably should have dumped in the first round. You
- 17:59Speaker 4: can't risk another injury when you're already shorthanded. They're getting
- 18:02Speaker 4: their starting center back, but the point guard will be
- 18:04Speaker 4: back at some point during the tournament, so they down
- 18:08Speaker 4: a starter, they're a thirty point favorite, so to speak.
- 18:12Speaker 4: And again point made before and is even more relevant here.
- 18:15Speaker 4: There's no incentive to run the score up, and as
- 18:18Speaker 4: much as Shier did that during the year, which I
- 18:19Speaker 4: think is revolting, there's no reason to do it in
- 18:22Speaker 4: this game. You have to win and move on and
- 18:24Speaker 4: try to win the whole tournament, so he should be
- 18:26Speaker 4: using his bench here frequently. On top of that, my
- 18:30Speaker 4: number is only around twenty four in this game, so
- 18:33Speaker 4: the line is too high. There's no reason for Duke
- 18:35Speaker 4: to run up the score. He absolutely should be using
- 18:38Speaker 4: his bench, given that he's already down a starter, and
- 18:41Speaker 4: the guy that's coming back probably won't be one hundred
- 18:43Speaker 4: percent if and when he comes back. So definitely Sienna here.
- 18:48Speaker 4: Plus Sienna plays low games, so they should be able
- 18:52Speaker 4: to control tempo here and keep the score down. So Sienna,
- 18:55Speaker 4: but not big because if Duke one by fifty, I
- 18:58Speaker 4: wouldn't be shocked like they lay over this team. But
- 19:01Speaker 4: the line's too high, and this reason is why it
- 19:03Speaker 4: shouldn't get out of control.
- 19:04Speaker 1: So maybe another opportunity for plus sixteen and a half.
- 19:07Speaker 2: I would go to the game game more than first half. Okay,
- 19:10Speaker 2: for reason.
- 19:10Speaker 4: This is why it's more relevant that the back door's there,
- 19:13Speaker 4: because he really really should have his reserves in and
- 19:17Speaker 4: Shires a smart guy. I think he's smart. He was
- 19:22Speaker 4: called the Jewish Michael Jordans so I because he was
- 19:26Speaker 4: such a cerebral play guard. That was his nickname.
- 19:32Speaker 3: Ohio State TCU.
- 19:34Speaker 2: Who's got three?
- 19:36Speaker 3: Chris has plus plus plus three? Nice minus sixteen.
- 19:39Speaker 4: All right, so Ohio States. Ohio State got red hot
- 19:45Speaker 4: during the late end of the year, but again they
- 19:48Speaker 4: were playing many apathetic teams and even in the conference tournament,
- 19:51Speaker 4: Michigan didn't give two shits about the tournament and they
- 19:54Speaker 4: hung with them. They played well the next round in
- 19:56Speaker 4: a round they lost too, but they were never that
- 19:59Speaker 4: good in the year.
- 20:00Speaker 2: There they were.
- 20:02Speaker 4: They lost to West Virginia and in overtime on a
- 20:04Speaker 4: neutral West Virginia stunk. That was one of the non
- 20:07Speaker 4: conference games. They were down pretty big to North Carolina
- 20:12Speaker 4: and ended up losing by one. I don't think they're
- 20:14Speaker 4: very good TCU. On the other hand, I didn't think
- 20:19Speaker 4: they'd been very good this year, and they started off struggling,
- 20:21Speaker 4: I think with Lamar or one of these Southland teams.
- 20:24Speaker 4: But here comes Michigan into town and they almost beat Michigan.
- 20:27Speaker 2: Now how good does that look?
- 20:28Speaker 4: But even better is later on when they played Florida
- 20:32Speaker 4: Wisconsin back to back and beating them both on neutrals.
- 20:36Speaker 4: Beating Florida, who I think is the best team in
- 20:37Speaker 4: the country on a neutral. Now you got something. So
- 20:40Speaker 4: TCU's best game is is elite. They should have won
- 20:45Speaker 4: in Kansas. They pissed the game away. They had like
- 20:46Speaker 4: an eight point leading a minute to go and pissed
- 20:48Speaker 4: it away. They almost wanted BYU. So clearly, when this
- 20:52Speaker 4: team plays their best game, it could be very, very strong.
- 20:57Speaker 4: Jamie Dixon is way better than Deeblers or coach. And
- 21:01Speaker 4: if you can ever get three in this game, you
- 21:03Speaker 4: are completely stealing. So TCU plus three all in and
- 21:08Speaker 4: if you can't get three, by it.
- 21:11Speaker 3: Guys.
- 21:11Speaker 1: Just to let you know, there are some sportsbooks that
- 21:13Speaker 1: charge you ten ten juice. Unfortunately they don't do it here,
- 21:16Speaker 1: but they charged fifteen here.
- 21:18Speaker 3: South Point.
- 21:19Speaker 2: Don't pay fifteen cents south Point.
- 21:20Speaker 1: You can go from two and a half to three
- 21:22Speaker 1: minus a dollar twenty.
- 21:23Speaker 3: That's just one off the top of my head.
- 21:25Speaker 1: Local guys normally that and if you have Chris or
- 21:27Speaker 1: bookmaker there plus three minus sixteen. Next one is North
- 21:32Speaker 1: Carolina minus two and a half over VCU.
- 21:36Speaker 2: Yeah, I made the game too.
- 21:38Speaker 4: I really have no opinion at all, except any chance
- 21:40Speaker 4: you have to bet against Hubert Davis is probably what
- 21:42Speaker 4: you should do, So I would go VCU and nobody.
- 21:46Speaker 1: Okay, here's Allen's old school, University of penn Illinois twenty
- 21:51Speaker 1: four and a half over Pennsylvania.
- 21:54Speaker 4: Yeah, Penn a surprise entry into the stupid IVY League
- 21:59Speaker 4: Tournamenthi shouldn't, but I mean the IVY League kept it
- 22:03Speaker 4: real for a long time. This is no nil money.
- 22:05Speaker 4: You can't grad transfer, it's all pure. However, when big
- 22:11Speaker 4: money creeped in, even they couldn't help themselves, and so
- 22:14Speaker 4: the Ivy's used to play on Friday Saturday only. The
- 22:18Speaker 4: reason they did that is to minimize lost class time,
- 22:21Speaker 4: because when they use the word student athlete in IVY
- 22:23Speaker 4: League school, they actually it actually mattered, unlike the rest
- 22:25Speaker 4: of these places, which panned at all that bullshit, like
- 22:27Speaker 4: we care about.
- 22:28Speaker 2: The student athlete. Uh no, you don't.
- 22:30Speaker 4: UCLA wouldn't be in the Big Ten conference if he
- 22:32Speaker 4: cared about the student athlete. They would care about money.
- 22:36Speaker 4: But even the ivy's crashed and no longer it's not
- 22:38Speaker 4: always Friday Saturday.
- 22:40Speaker 2: And then they come up with the IVY League tournament.
- 22:43Speaker 4: They would take the top four teams, but it's still
- 22:45Speaker 4: four teams too many. Like you played during the year,
- 22:47Speaker 4: that's what should matter, especially in the IVYS. So they've
- 22:51Speaker 4: they've sold out to They wanted to get some notoriety,
- 22:54Speaker 4: so they put there. They're on ESPN now and there's
- 22:57Speaker 4: a little more interest than IVY schools. But if you're
- 22:59Speaker 4: not paying, you're not getting them to come there. It's
- 23:02Speaker 4: very rare. You get a smart athletic kid who cares
- 23:04Speaker 4: about education, who'd want to go to Princeton to't want
- 23:07Speaker 4: to go to Penn. So I hate the IVY League tournament.
- 23:11Speaker 4: And what happened this year is the best team got
- 23:13Speaker 4: knocked out. Yale laid over Penn and James Jones, who
- 23:17Speaker 4: was normally excellent, completely lost his mind power where Ethan Roberts,
- 23:22Speaker 4: Pen's best player, was out for the tournament. He's the
- 23:24Speaker 4: eliting scorer, he's the glue to the team, so that
- 23:27Speaker 4: left TJ.
- 23:28Speaker 2: Power was the next five star recruit.
- 23:31Speaker 4: Played Virginia and Duke sat on the bench and found
- 23:33Speaker 4: his level at Penn. But he's the guy who gotta
- 23:36Speaker 4: stop the elaiting scorer is out. Who's they're gonna go
- 23:38Speaker 4: to Power? Stop him, double them, get the ball out
- 23:41Speaker 4: of his hands. Make someone else beat you. Jones didn't
- 23:43Speaker 4: do that, shocking even better up six late in the game,
- 23:47Speaker 4: he allowed him to hit two three pointers.
- 23:49Speaker 2: No, dude, you're up three.
- 23:52Speaker 4: You have to go the light to the court. You foul,
- 23:54Speaker 4: you foul you can You're one hundred to one dog
- 23:58Speaker 4: to miss a foul shot. The first missed, the second
- 24:01Speaker 4: on purpose, get the rebound and score. It's about one
- 24:03Speaker 4: hundred and one. Someone ran simulations on it. That's what
- 24:06Speaker 4: it came to. So I'd rather gamble one hundred and
- 24:09Speaker 4: one shot than someone making some tough three. So he
- 24:12Speaker 4: didn't follow like most of the morons don't do, and
- 24:15Speaker 4: they lost in overtime deservedly. So the IVY has a
- 24:20Speaker 4: poor representative. Yale would have been about eleven seed, maybe
- 24:22Speaker 4: even a ten. They were very very good this year,
- 24:25Speaker 4: so instead we have some very mediocre Pen team in
- 24:27Speaker 4: there who's gonna get blown out by Illinois? And the
- 24:31Speaker 4: line is slightly high, however, and I do think Roberts's.
- 24:34Speaker 2: Back for Pen.
- 24:35Speaker 4: It was a concussion, which should be good by now.
- 24:38Speaker 4: The issue here is Illinois had a fifteen point lead
- 24:41Speaker 4: in the Big Ten Tournament against Wisconsin and went to sleep,
- 24:45Speaker 4: and I suspect with the coach went crazy.
- 24:47Speaker 2: At the end of the game.
- 24:48Speaker 4: If they get fifteen ahead of Pen, they won't be
- 24:50Speaker 4: going to sleep. They'll try to run it up a
- 24:52Speaker 4: little bit. So I'm leaving it alone.
- 24:54Speaker 2: The line's too high, but I'm not betting Pen.
- 24:57Speaker 1: All right, Let's go over to Vanderbilt opened up eleven
- 25:00Speaker 1: and a half. Still about eleven and a half over McNeese.
- 25:02Speaker 4: This line's too high, however. McNeese is very good. They
- 25:06Speaker 4: they played a tournament mid season. Early season.
- 25:09Speaker 2: They beat.
- 25:12Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee, Murray State, and George Washington. I remembered, see
- 25:17Speaker 4: I haven't got to mention yet. Uh three impressive wins
- 25:22Speaker 4: like George Wathingon's legit. Murray State was playing lights out
- 25:25Speaker 4: back then, and middles are tough out, very good coach,
- 25:28Speaker 4: very tricky to prepare for, and they handle them all
- 25:31Speaker 4: with these So this team's legit. Struggling to win a
- 25:35Speaker 4: R one island's a little dicey, but getting blown out
- 25:37Speaker 4: at Michigan, which they also did, is no big deal.
- 25:39Speaker 4: Everyone did at that time. That's when Michigan was on
- 25:41Speaker 4: a rampage. So McNee is a legit good team and
- 25:44Speaker 4: watching him on on the south Land Conference tournament, they're
- 25:47Speaker 4: very very athletic and defend very very well.
- 25:51Speaker 2: Legit good team.
- 25:52Speaker 4: Unfortunately, Bandy should be a three seed and there are
- 25:56Speaker 4: five seed only because they want to take McNees out.
- 25:58Speaker 4: They some of the seedings are wrong, so I can
- 26:00Speaker 4: screw the mid major. That's my conspiracy theory thing that
- 26:03Speaker 4: I'm right about. It's not because I'm just right. And
- 26:07Speaker 4: if you watch Vandy play Florida in the SC Tournament,
- 26:10Speaker 4: you saw one of the better games played by anybody
- 26:13Speaker 4: this year, just blot a line unbeatable. They also had
- 26:18Speaker 4: other momentsary in a year where they were just impossible
- 26:21Speaker 4: to beat Vanderbilt. So this is a team that could
- 26:24Speaker 4: go a very very long way. And even though the
- 26:27Speaker 4: line is slightly high, Vandy's a game is there, which
- 26:30Speaker 4: it don't have to be. Then it could get ugly.
- 26:35Speaker 4: But mcneee's misseeded and got a bad draw, which is
- 26:38Speaker 4: always the case with mid major. So I would lean
- 26:41Speaker 4: to mcneie, but not with much fervor.
- 26:45Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to Nebraska minus thirteen over
- 26:48Speaker 1: Troy thirteen and a half.
- 26:50Speaker 4: Here, Nebraska is another one, lights out the whole year
- 26:54Speaker 4: and then fizzled out.
- 26:56Speaker 2: The second half. Now why did that happen?
- 26:58Speaker 4: I can guess which I'll do here, which all handicapping
- 27:01Speaker 4: is is guessing for me anyway. I don't use computers.
- 27:04Speaker 4: I use what's left in my brain, which isn't much.
- 27:09Speaker 4: It seems like the second time around that Nebraska was
- 27:13Speaker 4: scouted better and they made no adjustments to counter what
- 27:16Speaker 4: teams were doing to stop them, so their once elite
- 27:19Speaker 4: offense went to shit. Also, their best player mass the
- 27:23Speaker 4: most valuable player is playing with an injury, which I
- 27:27Speaker 4: read in a forum, which was good to know. So
- 27:30Speaker 4: the combination of those two things stopped there. They were
- 27:33Speaker 4: going up like this, power rating wise, and then it
- 27:35Speaker 4: came like that.
- 27:36Speaker 2: So where are they Are they up here? No? Are
- 27:38Speaker 2: they down here?
- 27:39Speaker 3: No?
- 27:39Speaker 4: Definitely not, probably still closer to the top. However, the
- 27:43Speaker 4: Troy coach Scott Cross is fantastic, just a terrific coach.
- 27:48Speaker 2: They'll be totally healthy for this game.
- 27:51Speaker 4: The problem with Troy, and again this goes back to
- 27:56Speaker 4: last year, is they were in a similar situation last
- 27:58Speaker 4: year against Kentucky in the first round and the game
- 28:01Speaker 4: was over early. They were never in the game. Now again,
- 28:04Speaker 4: is that just an anomaly or is it because this
- 28:06Speaker 4: nil thing has just made it? You know, so the
- 28:08Speaker 4: talent gap is too big, maybe some combination of both.
- 28:12Speaker 4: That being said, I only have this game nine. I
- 28:15Speaker 4: think Nebraska is wildly overrated. I don't think the coach
- 28:18Speaker 4: is very good. Unlike most in my industry, they think
- 28:20Speaker 4: he's a genius. I don't give that. So I think
- 28:23Speaker 4: Cross will have them very well prepared for this game.
- 28:26Speaker 4: And in spite of last year's budgeting in the first
- 28:28Speaker 4: round and the struggles against.
- 28:31Speaker 2: Well, let's stop that Troy.
- 28:34Speaker 4: Early in the year now in history, they went to
- 28:37Speaker 4: San Diego State and I think they wanted triple overtime,
- 28:39Speaker 4: and then played USC two days later and took them
- 28:41Speaker 4: to overtime. So they battled some very very good teams
- 28:45Speaker 4: and that differenstet Santeo State and Nebraska isn't that much.
- 28:49Speaker 4: San Diego State should have been in a tournament. So
- 28:52Speaker 4: Troy plus thirteen is a good bet, not a great bet.
- 28:55Speaker 4: I would make it a great bet except they got
- 28:57Speaker 4: killed last year in a very similar situation.
- 29:00Speaker 3: Only thirteen and a half. Right here, guys, minus nine is.
- 29:02Speaker 2: The place to benet and you get the penny bonus.
- 29:06Speaker 1: Saint Mary's opened up two and a half up to
- 29:08Speaker 1: three and a half over Texas A and M.
- 29:10Speaker 4: Saint Mary's probably my favorite team in the tournament. Randy
- 29:13Speaker 4: Bennett genius has a little to work with out there.
- 29:16Speaker 4: It makes it work every year. Just fantastic coach. His
- 29:21Speaker 4: team started off a little rockie this year. That was
- 29:24Speaker 4: another Vanderbilt impressive game. Vanderbilt destroyed Saint Mary's like no
- 29:27Speaker 4: one does that to Saint Mary's. Also, they lost on
- 29:33Speaker 4: a sort of neutral court against Boise, not to go
- 29:36Speaker 4: to loss either.
- 29:37Speaker 2: But as the year went on they got really good.
- 29:38Speaker 2: They beat Gonzaga.
- 29:40Speaker 4: The second half of the Gonzaga game was probably the
- 29:41Speaker 4: best half of basketball I've ever seen a team play.
- 29:43Speaker 4: They played a boner line perfect half of basketball. Extremely
- 29:47Speaker 4: well coached. Now Bucky McMillan, the coach of A and
- 29:50Speaker 4: m is. He's from Samford. He plays his unique style
- 29:54Speaker 4: of all kinds of presses and get up as many
- 29:57Speaker 4: three point shots as you can, and that works well
- 30:00Speaker 4: in mid major mid major them, but when you move
- 30:02Speaker 4: up to the elite.
- 30:03Speaker 2: Levels, that stuff does not work as well. Now.
- 30:06Speaker 4: They had flashes of brilliance this year where they went
- 30:08Speaker 4: to Alabama and could have won the game, and a
- 30:10Speaker 4: couple of games surrounding that russo very good, but they
- 30:13Speaker 4: busted out at the end of the year and they
- 30:16Speaker 4: lost SMU on neutral court.
- 30:17Speaker 2: Earlier in the year.
- 30:18Speaker 4: And if you're doing that, you're you're gonna be in
- 30:22Speaker 4: trouble against Saint Mary's. The line's right, So I'm passing
- 30:24Speaker 4: the game, but I kind of think Saint Mary's gets them.
- 30:28Speaker 4: I'm hoping they do, but I wouldn't bet it.
- 30:30Speaker 1: Okay, Houston twenty three, twenty three and a half, even
- 30:34Speaker 1: twenty fours over Idaho.
- 30:35Speaker 4: Great story. Idaho ran played amazing to win the.
- 30:40Speaker 2: Big Sky.
- 30:42Speaker 4: Randy's Country. But if you don't have athletes to match Houston,
- 30:48Speaker 4: you're in trouble. And they're in a lot of trouble here,
- 30:50Speaker 4: especially given that Houston played like shit in the Conference
- 30:54Speaker 4: centerment final against Arizona. They have a poke room here.
- 31:01Speaker 3: Yeah, poker.
- 31:04Speaker 4: Uh, so I think it's a I think it's a
- 31:06Speaker 4: blow up, but I'm leaving it alone.
- 31:09Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Wisconsin high Point. This game
- 31:12Speaker 1: actually was about twelve eleven and a half now down
- 31:15Speaker 1: to ten. Uh, there is a ten and a half
- 31:18Speaker 1: on the screen, ten and a half minus fifteen.
- 31:21Speaker 3: There's nine and a half's also.
- 31:22Speaker 2: I figured I drink create them live.
- 31:24Speaker 3: Uh, creative people ask someone asked about that.
- 31:26Speaker 2: They asked about them a lot. Yeah, we've covered creative all.
- 31:29Speaker 4: Right, creatives will cover it on this channel. No, I
- 31:32Speaker 4: don't work for I don't work for a creative company.
- 31:37Speaker 4: So Wisconsin's been amazing lately. They wanted Michigan like that
- 31:41Speaker 4: was it. That was the time Michigan lost at home.
- 31:44Speaker 4: They played myriad of good games, one after another after another,
- 31:49Speaker 4: and then without the starting center, they played amazing in
- 31:52Speaker 4: the Big ten tournament, and they really don't have a backup.
- 31:54Speaker 4: They went a little small ball and it worked, and
- 31:57Speaker 4: they're playing some big seal teams, so obviously they're gonna
- 31:59Speaker 4: kill them, right, I don't know.
- 32:03Speaker 2: High Point last year should have beaten.
- 32:04Speaker 4: Purdue, ironically another Big Ten team, but the refs completely
- 32:08Speaker 4: screwed them, and I had no bet in the game,
- 32:10Speaker 4: so I was watching it objectively. So I'll say that
- 32:13Speaker 4: fact that that High Point got screwed last year. The
- 32:16Speaker 4: problem is High Point had elite rim protection.
- 32:18Speaker 2: Last year.
- 32:19Speaker 4: They had some guy with a double name who's of
- 32:21Speaker 4: course moved on to some power school because they always do.
- 32:26Speaker 4: In their early season games weren't that good. They lost
- 32:29Speaker 4: to Appalachian State A under control, they lost to Southern
- 32:31Speaker 4: Illinois at home. They got blown out at UAB, so
- 32:35Speaker 4: this team is not quite up to last year's standards. However,
- 32:41Speaker 4: I don't think Wisconsin, even though they played all the
- 32:43Speaker 4: good games, it's Wisconsin, and their ceiling cannot be that high.
- 32:48Speaker 4: The athletes aren't good enough for them to play to
- 32:51Speaker 4: the level they played to, So I think they're gonna
- 32:53Speaker 4: come down a little bit and I don't think. I
- 32:58Speaker 4: still think High Point has it in them to play
- 33:00Speaker 4: a pretty high level game. So my number.
- 33:06Speaker 3: Fifty five dollars Plumber Tournament.
- 33:08Speaker 4: Can they hear us? Can he hear us over that? Oh? Yeah, okay,
- 33:12Speaker 4: I don't know how this works.
- 33:13Speaker 3: Yeah. Good.
- 33:15Speaker 4: So even though high Point played all those shit games
- 33:18Speaker 4: against not such good competition in Wisconsin's beating the best
- 33:21Speaker 4: teams in the country. I still think the line's too high,
- 33:24Speaker 4: and I would go with the high point.
- 33:27Speaker 1: All right, Arkansas fifteen fifteen and a half over Hawaii.
- 33:32Speaker 4: So once again, as predicted by me, they screwed John
- 33:35Speaker 4: cal Parry over they played Sunday and now they have
- 33:38Speaker 4: to play Thursday. And not only are they playing Thursday,
- 33:42Speaker 4: but also they had a chance to put them in
- 33:43Speaker 4: Oklahoma City and they put them in Oregon. So he's
- 33:47Speaker 4: got a long travel on short rest which does not
- 33:50Speaker 4: work well, and he's not a very good coach. And
- 33:57Speaker 4: GOODOA at Hawaii is excellent. Uh, the line is slightly high,
- 34:04Speaker 4: and they did win the SEC tournament, which should make
- 34:08Speaker 4: this a tricky game for them.
- 34:09Speaker 2: To play as a big favorite.
- 34:11Speaker 4: So I have a very strongly into Hawaii, maybe even
- 34:14Speaker 4: some sort of bet on Hawaii.
- 34:16Speaker 1: Plus fifteen and a half bet MGM Gonzaga twenty over Kennesaw.
- 34:22Speaker 4: Gonzaga should be a two seed, so then misseeded big surprise, Uh,
- 34:29Speaker 4: not a batchup. Kannsau wants Kinnasaw plays fast, Gonzaga plays
- 34:33Speaker 4: fast and wants to play fast and this could get ugly.
- 34:37Speaker 4: So I think the line's right, but I'd only bet
- 34:39Speaker 4: the favorite.
- 34:40Speaker 1: But I'm not no bet Okay, let's go to Friday
- 34:44Speaker 1: Friday's games.
- 34:45Speaker 3: Texas Tech eight over Akron.
- 34:47Speaker 4: They went up to eight. Yeah, I made the game six,
- 34:49Speaker 4: but I again as another team that really struggled against
- 34:54Speaker 4: better competition. They went to Purdue, they were never in
- 34:56Speaker 4: the game. They lost to Yale on a neutral. Yale
- 34:58Speaker 4: is a good team, but you they're not Texas Tech level.
- 35:02Speaker 3: Uh.
- 35:04Speaker 2: And I'm not a Croachy fan. The coach there.
- 35:07Speaker 4: Texas Tech overcame the loss of maybe the best player
- 35:09Speaker 4: in the country, JT Toppin uh and and still played
- 35:13Speaker 4: at at a at a really high level. Uh. My
- 35:16Speaker 4: number in the game is only six. I hope they're
- 35:20Speaker 4: having a good conversation here. My number in the game
- 35:22Speaker 4: is only six. Uh, but I don't I don't have
- 35:26Speaker 4: much pezas for betting Acron. So just maybe a very
- 35:29Speaker 4: small lean.
- 35:31Speaker 1: Okay, Alabama solid eleven and a half over Hofstra here.
- 35:36Speaker 4: Yeah, so all the line came down because one of
- 35:38Speaker 4: the Alabama players got caught with like X number of
- 35:40Speaker 4: pounds of pot. I think it might have been two,
- 35:43Speaker 4: which I think is smart. Like, I think he's being
- 35:45Speaker 4: very enterprising. Right, you get this on al money, let's
- 35:48Speaker 4: try to turn it into something, so we'll deal weed.
- 35:51Speaker 2: Uh just not good when you get caught.
- 35:53Speaker 4: So he screwed up by getting caught, but dealing weed,
- 35:55Speaker 4: I mean that's a good way to make a living.
- 35:56Speaker 2: Right.
- 35:57Speaker 4: Uh So Natos, who try to grab some player out
- 36:02Speaker 4: of the G League, I'm surprised he's not petitioning to
- 36:04Speaker 4: let the kid play.
- 36:05Speaker 2: Wait, this is until proven guilty.
- 36:07Speaker 4: Who cares? We had a couple pounds a week on you,
- 36:09Speaker 4: like he should be able to play in the game.
- 36:11Speaker 4: I'm sure NATO's is saying that, although maybe he's not
- 36:13Speaker 4: even stupid enough to say that. Yes, I despise him
- 36:17Speaker 4: for trying to pull a guy to the G League
- 36:20Speaker 4: and claims he belongs in college. Yeah, I want to
- 36:22Speaker 4: go to Alabama to get an education.
- 36:25Speaker 3: Right.
- 36:25Speaker 4: He needed a big man to help his team, and
- 36:27Speaker 4: he went and plucked one, and then the courts, thank god,
- 36:30Speaker 4: stepped in and said.
- 36:30Speaker 2: No, this is not how it works.
- 36:33Speaker 4: That being said, Natos's system has been has been in
- 36:40Speaker 4: place there, and he has many bodies and this guy's
- 36:44Speaker 4: a good player that they lost, but he has a
- 36:46Speaker 4: lot of bodies that to replace this guy. And it's
- 36:49Speaker 4: more about the system. He doesn't have the most talented
- 36:51Speaker 4: team on the planet, and when he is better athletically
- 36:55Speaker 4: than the other the team which he is against Hofstra,
- 36:59Speaker 4: his style can create ate a lot of blowouts. And
- 37:01Speaker 4: even though this line is right, and even though they're
- 37:03Speaker 4: down the best player, I think being down one of
- 37:05Speaker 4: the good players may help them here. It may motivate
- 37:09Speaker 4: them to say, all right, you know, let's go, let's
- 37:12Speaker 4: get them where you know. They They were life and
- 37:14Speaker 4: death with Robert Morris in the first round last year,
- 37:17Speaker 4: and life and death with my owner.
- 37:18Speaker 2: Several years ago.
- 37:20Speaker 4: So they've had struggles in the first round and Hoffs
- 37:22Speaker 4: was coming in playing the best.
- 37:23Speaker 2: Ball that they played all year.
- 37:25Speaker 4: And props to the coach, but this feels like a
- 37:30Speaker 4: matchup that Alabama is gonna like, and I think Alabama's
- 37:33Speaker 4: gonna blow him out. I also think the line's right,
- 37:35Speaker 4: So don't think I'm in love with this, but my
- 37:39Speaker 4: instincts saying Alabama gets them, So I'll go with that
- 37:41Speaker 4: and maybe a small bet on Alabama.
- 37:44Speaker 1: Okay, all right, this line Iowa minus two at State two.
- 37:49Speaker 1: There's a two and a half at circle, Iowa two
- 37:50Speaker 1: and a half or two over Clemson.
- 37:52Speaker 4: My line's Iowa are half and both coaches are fantastic.
- 38:01Speaker 4: Clemson kind of fizzled out late in the year and
- 38:03Speaker 4: was it because they got you know, was it because
- 38:05Speaker 4: they just got overrated to start the year or not?
- 38:07Speaker 2: And I don't think so.
- 38:08Speaker 4: Brad Burnell is great and his team kind of plays
- 38:12Speaker 4: at his level all the time. Ben McCallum and Iowa
- 38:15Speaker 4: fantastic coach, Like, he's got like a D two point
- 38:17Speaker 4: guard who's turned into a pro prospect. He's got another
- 38:21Speaker 4: D two guy who's he makes it work. He's just brilliant.
- 38:26Speaker 4: So this is really a matchup of two very elite coaches.
- 38:31Speaker 4: I'm gonna go to Clemson's leading BYU by twenty five
- 38:35Speaker 4: at the guard early in the year and point to
- 38:38Speaker 4: that as.
- 38:41Speaker 2: Very relevant for this matchup.
- 38:42Speaker 4: If they can do that and play that well, then
- 38:47Speaker 4: I think that level here against a very not very
- 38:51Speaker 4: athletic Iowa team would give them.
- 38:56Speaker 3: A slight edge.
- 38:57Speaker 4: My line is Iowa a half, so it's it's no
- 39:00Speaker 4: big deal, but I I would have a small bet
- 39:02Speaker 4: on Clemson plus two and bigger plus three minus twenty
- 39:06Speaker 4: two or something.
- 39:07Speaker 1: Okay, Uh, UCLA six five and a half or six
- 39:11Speaker 1: over Central.
- 39:12Speaker 4: So here's the team that doesn't belong in the tournament,
- 39:14Speaker 4: Central Florida. Like just absurd, Like so Auburn, who didn't
- 39:20Speaker 4: she likes to.
- 39:21Speaker 2: So announce things.
- 39:21Speaker 3: Does she speak? Fifty five dollars?
- 39:24Speaker 4: Do you think there's a tournament? Anyone want to add
- 39:26Speaker 4: it to the poker tournament? It's over there, Uh, fifty
- 39:30Speaker 4: five dollars, we should all enter.
- 39:32Speaker 2: She'd be happy. Auburn should have been in the tournament.
- 39:35Speaker 4: By the way, but not because Bruce pro was was
- 39:38Speaker 4: was making some speech for his kid that was just stupid,
- 39:41Speaker 4: like yeah, your son, of course.
- 39:43Speaker 2: You're gonna want him in. Like just shut up, man, Like.
- 39:47Speaker 4: No one wants to hear you. And he's wrong about
- 39:49Speaker 4: miami O, Like miami O doesn't belong.
- 39:50Speaker 2: In the tournament.
- 39:51Speaker 4: But as mentioned before, you know they were thirty one
- 39:54Speaker 4: and oh they're in. Like what's the point of doing anything.
- 39:58Speaker 4: If a team goes undefeated, they're in. And Auburn had
- 40:01Speaker 4: a million chances to win games that they could have
- 40:03Speaker 4: won it in and win him. So yeah, see you later.
- 40:05Speaker 4: Steve Perley did a terrible job. Anyway, how did it
- 40:10Speaker 4: end up on Auburn? Oh, they'd be five and a
- 40:13Speaker 4: half over Central Florida on a neutral. San Diego State
- 40:16Speaker 4: would be five and a half over Central Florida on
- 40:18Speaker 4: a neutral. So that's how bad they the committee did
- 40:21Speaker 4: by putting this team in. This team stinks. Ucla finally
- 40:24Speaker 4: got healthy and Cronan is fantastic and Donovan Dent, his
- 40:29Speaker 4: point guard, was a turnover machine at New Mexico. He
- 40:33Speaker 4: played out of control all the time, which Richard Bettino
- 40:35Speaker 4: don't care about, but Cronin does.
- 40:38Speaker 2: And it took about two months for Cronin.
- 40:39Speaker 4: To get this kid to be a point guard and
- 40:42Speaker 4: not some flashy athlete.
- 40:44Speaker 2: And once that happened and they.
- 40:46Speaker 4: Got sky back, Ucla flipped the switch and became a
- 40:52Speaker 4: very high level team. And they completely lay over Central Florida. Yes,
- 40:57Speaker 4: they had two starters out for the conference cermmer, but
- 40:59Speaker 4: they both could have laid including Donovan Dent. Uh billdo
- 41:04Speaker 4: is the other one. He'll be back and they're gonna
- 41:06Speaker 4: kill Central Florida.
- 41:08Speaker 2: So Ucla minus six five and a half, minus O
- 41:11Speaker 2: nine five.
- 41:11Speaker 4: And a half, minus oh nine and if you can
- 41:13Speaker 4: buy five even better. All in they are not losing
- 41:17Speaker 4: to Central Florida.
- 41:19Speaker 3: So you wouldn't say money line, though you could say
- 41:21Speaker 3: bet them.
- 41:21Speaker 2: I would say anything you want to do.
- 41:23Speaker 3: Okay, that's a good, good, good bet for you.
- 41:25Speaker 4: Then so I have it. So it's not as so
- 41:28Speaker 4: it's well, I'm finished. It's not as far off as uh,
- 41:35Speaker 4: it's not as far off as the purview game, which
- 41:38Speaker 4: is further off. But I have a lot more confidence
- 41:40Speaker 4: that are bright about this number, if that makes sense. Okay,
- 41:44Speaker 4: So I I am pretty sure eight and a half
- 41:45Speaker 4: is the right number, and I'm pretty sure that is
- 41:47Speaker 4: gonna kill him, all right. Johnny Dawkins is the moron too,
- 41:51Speaker 4: So this is that all the coach k guys and morons.
- 41:55Speaker 3: No East Coast travel time concerns.
- 41:57Speaker 4: It's Friday, so they have time. No, they'll schedule right.
- 42:00Speaker 4: But good point, Yeah, that is a big deal. They
- 42:03Speaker 4: screwzeally all the time. They gave him. They gave him
- 42:06Speaker 4: a bad seat, and they gave me a good first
- 42:07Speaker 4: round draw, but not a good second round draw, which
- 42:09Speaker 4: we're getting to next. But good point. Yeah, the West
- 42:12Speaker 4: Coast east on thing. So San Diego State last year.
- 42:14Speaker 4: The part I liked them in the player around last year.
- 42:17Speaker 4: What I blew was they played a late game on
- 42:19Speaker 4: a Saturday night and had to play in Dayton on Tuesday.
- 42:22Speaker 4: So very very good point the three hour gap. But
- 42:24Speaker 4: they'll get they'll they'll allow for it because they're playing
- 42:26Speaker 4: on Friday.
- 42:28Speaker 2: All right, good question.
- 42:29Speaker 1: This game there's Circa has minus twenty and South Point
- 42:32Speaker 1: has minus twenty one. And so this Spinnacle Connecticut over Furman.
- 42:36Speaker 2: Well, Furman coach is amazing.
- 42:37Speaker 4: I was on him every game in the Southern Conference tournament,
- 42:41Speaker 4: which some people were happy about. Uh, but I think
- 42:44Speaker 4: Yukon is a threat to win the whole thing. As
- 42:46Speaker 4: bad as they looked against Saint John's. That'll probably help
- 42:49Speaker 4: him because Saint John's took Caravan out of the game
- 42:51Speaker 4: and and knew not howowed and didn't allow him to
- 42:55Speaker 4: get to his spots. But Hurly as an elite coaching staff,
- 42:58Speaker 4: and they'll adjust for that. And yeah, I don't again
- 43:04Speaker 4: the one, the one the line's accurate, I don't like it.
- 43:07Speaker 4: And Hurley doesn't try to run scores up so as
- 43:09Speaker 4: that too, So I just leave it alone, all right.
- 43:13Speaker 3: Virginia minus eighteen of a Right State.
- 43:16Speaker 4: My line is thirteen and a half and I think
- 43:18Speaker 4: it's about right. Right State. Uh not a great team
- 43:26Speaker 4: and nothing on their resume to suggests that they can
- 43:28Speaker 4: even hang with Virginia, but they have a lot of depth.
- 43:31Speaker 2: They overcame a bunch of injuries.
- 43:32Speaker 4: They're all playing now, and having a lot of depth
- 43:35Speaker 4: is important in this thing because one of these these
- 43:38Speaker 4: uh mid majors, when they put six or ten in,
- 43:40Speaker 4: they're just so overmatched that the game gets away from them.
- 43:42Speaker 4: That is not the case with Right State, and when
- 43:44Speaker 4: dealing with an eighteen point underdog, that's massively important. Virginia
- 43:50Speaker 4: had a home run year, but they played to a
- 43:52Speaker 4: level that that that they've really never even come to,
- 43:54Speaker 4: even under Tony Bennett.
- 43:55Speaker 2: So they have only one place to go but down.
- 43:59Speaker 4: I think thirteen and a half is a very very
- 44:01Speaker 4: good line, and I think Right State is a very
- 44:03Speaker 4: very good bet. Again, the back door is very feasible
- 44:06Speaker 4: here because there's no point in not putting subs in
- 44:10Speaker 4: as as soon as you can, but I don't think
- 44:11Speaker 4: you'll date it. I think Right State is a good
- 44:13Speaker 4: chance to hang.
- 44:14Speaker 1: Caesars bet MGM eighteen and a half and also a
- 44:17Speaker 1: Pinnacle eighteen and a half. All right, let's get to
- 44:19Speaker 1: the next one, Miami, Florida two and a half over Missouri.
- 44:23Speaker 4: I made Miami too, I think. I think the lines
- 44:25Speaker 4: bang on.
- 44:26Speaker 2: I have no.
- 44:28Speaker 1: Nothing to offer, Okay, that's okay, Purdue up to twenty
- 44:32Speaker 1: five and a half, even at twenty six on the screen.
- 44:34Speaker 4: I think the money for Purdue is because clean plays
- 44:36Speaker 4: hyper fast, and when you're dealing with twenty point favorites,
- 44:43Speaker 4: h hyper fast, hyper fast could get you in trouble. However,
- 44:49Speaker 4: Purdue just won the Big Ten tournament, and after you
- 44:54Speaker 4: win the Big Ten tournament, beating the number one team
- 44:55Speaker 4: in the country and your twenty five point favorite, it
- 44:58Speaker 4: could be very, very tricky to be hyper.
- 45:00Speaker 3: Motivated for it.
- 45:02Speaker 4: So although there's a lot of money for Purdue, I
- 45:04Speaker 4: don't agree with it, and I would definitely lean to
- 45:07Speaker 4: Queens because I don't think Purdue is gonna have a
- 45:09Speaker 4: lot of pizaze for this game, even though it's the
- 45:12Speaker 4: NCAA tournament. They just beat the number one team in
- 45:13Speaker 4: the country. There's no way they'll they'll maintain that level.
- 45:17Speaker 4: And Queen's is all in and nothing to lose. The
- 45:21Speaker 4: back doors there.
- 45:23Speaker 1: All right Kentucky three three and a half over Santa Clara.
- 45:29Speaker 2: I made it?
- 45:31Speaker 4: What did I make it?
- 45:35Speaker 3: I have?
- 45:35Speaker 4: I made it two one and a.
- 45:37Speaker 2: Half or two? Wow?
- 45:39Speaker 4: What did I make it? I didn't make it this high.
- 45:42Speaker 4: I had to make it one and a half.
- 45:43Speaker 2: I think I wrote down the wrong line.
- 45:46Speaker 4: It's good to check this. Where is it? I can't
- 45:49Speaker 4: read my writing? Oh here it is, No, it is
- 45:52Speaker 4: that's wrong. Game two two three and a half.
- 45:57Speaker 3: Stillouldn't play it, though, would you close?
- 46:01Speaker 4: I could see one and a half Kentucky like I
- 46:03Speaker 4: was debating whether I've raded ninety seven or ninety seven
- 46:05Speaker 4: a half.
- 46:06Speaker 2: So I've been bouncing around.
- 46:06Speaker 4: They're a little healthier now, and I have a lot
- 46:09Speaker 4: of respect for Mark Pope. They spent twenty two million
- 46:12Speaker 4: on their team, by the way, which is you know,
- 46:14Speaker 4: when you struggle to eat every day, it's good to
- 46:16Speaker 4: hear that the team can spend twenty two million on
- 46:17Speaker 4: a college basketball team and two of them got hurt,
- 46:21Speaker 4: so ha ha. They're not happy down there with Mark Pope,
- 46:25Speaker 4: but he's a very good coach. However, the Santa Clair
- 46:27Speaker 4: coach is amazing. Herb Sendek on the all time greats
- 46:32Speaker 4: and I actually give him a slight age in this
- 46:33Speaker 4: game coaching wise.
- 46:36Speaker 2: And I think.
- 46:41Speaker 4: His defense is really good, really well prepared, and Pope
- 46:46Speaker 4: runs very very good offense. Usually this team has struggled
- 46:49Speaker 4: the run offense. They don't really have a point guard.
- 46:52Speaker 4: And the more I talk about this, the more I
- 46:53Speaker 4: kind of think Santa Clair has a good chance to
- 46:57Speaker 4: beat this team.
- 47:00Speaker 2: Yeah, I would.
- 47:00Speaker 4: I would lean to UH Santa Clara at three and
- 47:02Speaker 4: a half and maybe even bet something on them. Okay, yeah,
- 47:06Speaker 4: it feels like they're gonna match up well with the
- 47:08Speaker 4: Kentucky all right, Yeah, yeah, Sendeck's really good.
- 47:12Speaker 1: Iowa State pretty solid twenty five over Tennessee State.
- 47:16Speaker 4: When you don't have athletes, you don't want to screw
- 47:17Speaker 4: with Iowa State. They're just savages on defense, and and
- 47:21Speaker 4: and and Tennessee State had enough NIOL money in the
- 47:25Speaker 4: Ohio Valley to win the league. But no one smiths
- 47:27Speaker 4: a duke guy, and I'm not high on duke coaches,
- 47:30Speaker 4: and a big duck to Iowa State tends to get
- 47:33Speaker 4: blown out because he just he just turns turns you
- 47:36Speaker 4: over so easily and willingly, and yeah, pass all.
- 47:41Speaker 1: Right, four more games guys uh Saint John's ten and
- 47:45Speaker 1: a half eleven over Northern Iowa.
- 47:47Speaker 4: So Saint John's the five seed, which they shouldn't be.
- 47:49Speaker 4: They should be three or four. But the reason they
- 47:52Speaker 4: are similar to the Louisville seeding against South Florida is
- 47:55Speaker 4: they're playing in mid major. It was dangerous, and my
- 47:57Speaker 4: contention is the committee looks for ways to just group
- 48:00Speaker 4: mid majors and get them out of the tournament asap,
- 48:02Speaker 4: so they stick them in the eight nine bracket where
- 48:04Speaker 4: they have to play a one seed next. Well, they
- 48:06Speaker 4: put them against the misseeded team when they're not good
- 48:08Speaker 4: enough to be a eight or nine. So that's what's
- 48:10Speaker 4: happened here is both Saint John's and Louisville got screwed
- 48:12Speaker 4: in the seat. Vanderbilt it was too actually just three
- 48:14Speaker 4: of them, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Saint John's all got seated
- 48:18Speaker 4: too low, meaning too high a number, so.
- 48:22Speaker 2: They can take out a mid major.
- 48:25Speaker 4: Northern Iowa, one of the best coaches in the country
- 48:28Speaker 4: against Patino's team just won the Big East, so they're
- 48:31Speaker 4: coming in off of high which is not good. I
- 48:34Speaker 4: like to bet against teams who win their conference tournament.
- 48:37Speaker 4: And Northern Iowa is elite defensively and Saint John's. The
- 48:41Speaker 4: hole in their armor is they lacked three point shooting
- 48:45Speaker 4: and Northern Iowa. If Northern Iowa does not turn it
- 48:48Speaker 4: over and then they don't turn it over much. But
- 48:50Speaker 4: of course they haven't faced anything what St. John's is
- 48:52Speaker 4: going to do to him. They have a very good
- 48:56Speaker 4: chance to hang in this game. The problem is is
- 48:59Speaker 4: they may just turn roll a lot because Saint John's
- 49:01Speaker 4: press is something they haven't seen all year and it's very.
- 49:03Speaker 2: Very difficult to prepare for.
- 49:06Speaker 4: However, Northern Iowa's defense is fantastic, even though they lack athletes.
- 49:10Speaker 2: That five moving is one.
- 49:11Speaker 4: It's very Brad Stevens esque, where everyone knows what it's
- 49:14Speaker 4: supposed to be on the court and they very rarely
- 49:16Speaker 4: make a mistake. So Saint John's lack of three point
- 49:19Speaker 4: shooting is going to knock him out of this tournament
- 49:21Speaker 4: at some point, And it may not knock him out
- 49:23Speaker 4: of this game, but.
- 49:24Speaker 2: It may allow Northern Iowa to hang.
- 49:26Speaker 4: I think the line is absolutely right, so I'm passing,
- 49:28Speaker 4: but I can see Northern Iowa hanging.
- 49:30Speaker 2: I can assume getting born out too.
- 49:32Speaker 4: By the way, so.
- 49:32Speaker 1: Pass Kansas fourteen and a half over cal Baptist.
- 49:36Speaker 4: Year. Yeah, Kansas ain't that good. This is not something
- 49:39Speaker 4: eleak Kansas team. I don't think Bill Self's any kind
- 49:41Speaker 4: of great coach. Rick Krou's teams are very very good defensively.
- 49:48Speaker 4: The Kansas kid Peterson, you know, he hasn't in his
- 49:50Speaker 4: nil contract that he can take himself out of the
- 49:52Speaker 4: game if he wants. I'm serious. So I work for you,
- 49:57Speaker 4: and we're construction. My handworks. I don't feel like putting
- 50:00Speaker 4: a brick down. See you you're paying me anyway. That's
- 50:04Speaker 4: what the world's come to. They are all a bunch
- 50:05Speaker 4: of pussies and my leg hurts. Well, we'll play through it,
- 50:09Speaker 4: due dude, Like no, uh, I think this line is
- 50:13Speaker 4: slightly high, and I think that the game is gonna
- 50:16Speaker 4: play kind of low, and and I think cal Baptist
- 50:19Speaker 4: is a very good chance to hang in there. This
- 50:20Speaker 4: is not a good version of Kansas, like not close
- 50:23Speaker 4: and better versions of Kansas have have have struggled in
- 50:26Speaker 4: the first round because Bill self is usually out coached,
- 50:30Speaker 4: so cal Baptist and nobody has small bet.
- 50:33Speaker 1: All right, let's go on. Arizona thirty one over Long Island.
- 50:37Speaker 2: And I won't do the Mark Lindsay reference again.
- 50:39Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great job by h Strickland at Long Island.
- 50:43Speaker 4: These guys keep talking to Gon to lose my mind.
- 50:46Speaker 2: Uh Goody wants about right, So pass.
- 50:49Speaker 3: Pass on that.
- 50:50Speaker 1: Okay, last one, Utah State two over Villainova.
- 50:53Speaker 2: Utah State got screwed.
- 50:56Speaker 4: It should be like a five seed and there are nine,
- 51:01Speaker 4: and it basically very difficult. He seed going over I
- 51:04Speaker 4: guess hates about right for them seven or eight.
- 51:06Speaker 2: I should write out all.
- 51:07Speaker 4: The seeds and see who got screwed the most. But
- 51:10Speaker 4: then the second round match is not fair. Utah State,
- 51:13Speaker 4: though I watched them play, they are fantastic. The coach
- 51:17Speaker 4: is amazing, he's a Huggins disciple, and Villanova overachieved this
- 51:22Speaker 4: year with a not overly talented team. I made the
- 51:25Speaker 4: line Utah State two and a half. But if you
- 51:28Speaker 4: toss Eate ran him out of the gym, it wouldn't
- 51:29Speaker 4: surprise me because I don't think.
- 51:31Speaker 2: Villanova was that good.
- 51:32Speaker 4: I think Willard did a fantastic job. But the line's correct,
- 51:37Speaker 4: but it'd only be on Utah State.
- 51:39Speaker 1: We have a request for anything in the NI T
- 51:43Speaker 1: either today or tomorrow anything.
- 51:44Speaker 4: One of the lines.
- 51:46Speaker 3: I know, I don't know if you did the work
- 51:48Speaker 3: on a plane or not.
- 51:48Speaker 4: George Mason three and a half, while no, they're Yale
- 51:51Speaker 4: minus four and a half, minus five four and a
- 51:54Speaker 4: half at primary whatever the hell that is Pinnacle now?
- 51:58Speaker 4: Oh and benmgm south Point. Yeah, so Yale minus four
- 52:01Speaker 4: and a half. Okay, but these minds moved a shit
- 52:04Speaker 4: ton that that was plus nine this morning.
- 52:07Speaker 3: Wow.
- 52:08Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm no longer betting that.
- 52:11Speaker 1: Because your friend of Davidson was dying, that's down to
- 52:13Speaker 1: six South down gets alved.
- 52:16Speaker 2: Yeah, I lean that way.
- 52:17Speaker 4: Complete coaching mismatch, and I'm not so sure how how
- 52:20Speaker 4: motivated Auburn will be, although they took a vote, and
- 52:22Speaker 4: they voted they want to play. But the South Alabama
- 52:25Speaker 4: coach is fantastic. Uh.
- 52:27Speaker 2: He plays a.
- 52:27Speaker 4: Really myriad of Tricky's own defenses, which are impossible to
- 52:30Speaker 4: prepare for on short notice. Never minded Steve Probe preparing
- 52:35Speaker 4: for it, who clearly is not up to stuff here.
- 52:39Speaker 4: So I could see maybe even a little money line
- 52:41Speaker 4: South Alabama. I could see them. If Auburn don't show
- 52:43Speaker 4: up making it their life miserable, they will make their
- 52:46Speaker 4: life miserable. As long as they're not too athlete, they
- 52:49Speaker 4: should be able to hang there. So yes, South Alabama
- 52:51Speaker 4: plus eighteen and also, uh Calarvine is a complete coaching mismatch.
- 52:56Speaker 4: Also Russell Turner one of the best of the country
- 52:58Speaker 4: against the n l V coach who uh will Will
- 53:04Speaker 4: is average at best. So Calravine minus one and a half.
- 53:09Speaker 4: That's what I like in on Wednesday. That's tonight.
- 53:12Speaker 2: Let's see what's tomorrow.
- 53:14Speaker 4: Yeah, they haven't banks out yet, so let's seho we
- 53:16Speaker 4: can find here. I like Utah Valley minus who I
- 53:19Speaker 4: don't love it California minus five. That one I like
- 53:26Speaker 4: a lot is four and a half at South Point
- 53:28Speaker 4: and Caesar's California.
- 53:30Speaker 1: Big California over Illinois Chicago tomorrow night, guys.
- 53:34Speaker 4: Right then I lean to Colorado State maybe Colorado State
- 53:38Speaker 4: small and Utah Valley medium and you got it all right?
- 53:42Speaker 4: We can do questions BALLI Hi, my name is Mike Zay.
- 53:45Speaker 4: I'm from Dallas. Thanks for coming. I'm from Dallas.
- 53:49Speaker 5: Dallas, Yes, sir, Yes sir, Dallas, Yes sir, Big big
- 53:52Speaker 5: fan slash resorts.
- 53:55Speaker 4: Just close, just close. It's literally about like he's making
- 53:58Speaker 4: ladies on the matchbooks. Yeah, my buddy went to I
- 54:01Speaker 4: went to Dallas to visit a friend and he took
- 54:03Speaker 4: me to a restaurant with the cut off the tie.
- 54:06Speaker 5: Yes, the trail does steakhouse, fantastic place trail And I
- 54:10Speaker 5: went to a pool turner down there too, So that's
- 54:12Speaker 5: what I know about Dallas.
- 54:13Speaker 4: Good luck. So yeah, center. Yeah.
- 54:19Speaker 5: My first question is when you talk about like for example,
- 54:22Speaker 5: cal Baptist, you know your number is correct, You know
- 54:25Speaker 5: all that you ever consider betting first half on these
- 54:28Speaker 5: like big dogs for tournaments and just.
- 54:31Speaker 2: First half, especially with dogs.
- 54:33Speaker 4: But because number one, you get a true result. The
- 54:37Speaker 4: team the game's on five with twenty seconds ago during
- 54:40Speaker 4: the season, it could end ten follow make them both
- 54:44Speaker 4: missed three point of.
- 54:45Speaker 2: Fallow, make them both.
- 54:45Speaker 4: And if the game's on five with twenty seconds ago
- 54:49Speaker 4: in the first half, it's one possession no matter who
- 54:52Speaker 4: has the ball, holy for the last shot. So the
- 54:53Speaker 4: game's gonna end five or seven. So you don't take
- 54:56Speaker 4: bad beats when you bet the first half as off.
- 54:58Speaker 4: And of course the nominalties happened. That's one reason I
- 55:00Speaker 4: at first halfs. Number two is superior coaching can allow
- 55:05Speaker 4: a team to hang with the West athletic team for
- 55:08Speaker 4: a half and sometimes for two thirds of the game,
- 55:11Speaker 4: but at some point they usually crash and the athleticism
- 55:13Speaker 4: takes over and then you just get run out.
- 55:16Speaker 2: So yes, there's two reasons to bet first halves that
- 55:18Speaker 2: are both relevant.
- 55:19Speaker 4: And I've never done it because back in the day
- 55:23Speaker 4: when I was betting more than most, a lot more
- 55:27Speaker 4: than most.
- 55:28Speaker 2: You couldn't get down enough on it.
- 55:31Speaker 4: And I've never went evaluated. You know what, first halves
- 55:35Speaker 4: might be better than others, but certainly for the reasons
- 55:39Speaker 4: afore mentioned, first halves are probably better than whole games,
- 55:45Speaker 4: especially with dogs. So I never considered it, but it's
- 55:49Speaker 4: right to thank you.
- 55:52Speaker 2: You're very welcome.
- 55:53Speaker 4: One more question for you, sir.
- 55:55Speaker 5: I'm on Texas AMALM, so I'm gonna ask this question
- 55:58Speaker 5: one more time. I know I love Randy Bennett, probably
- 56:02Speaker 5: one of the best coach to find formed players to
- 56:05Speaker 5: create a program. Do you think Saint Mary will have
- 56:10Speaker 5: a little trouble with bucket ball at the beginning, because
- 56:14Speaker 5: you know, I look at the comp Santa Clara, who
- 56:17Speaker 5: they play three times, lost twice two out of three
- 56:20Speaker 5: times to Santa Clara. As the kind of comp to
- 56:22Speaker 5: Texas Am do you think.
- 56:25Speaker 4: Like.
- 56:26Speaker 5: Just because that little frant tic pace. But I also
- 56:30Speaker 5: know Randy Bennett is very hard. You know, Gonzaga tried
- 56:33Speaker 5: to speed up, you know hard for good teams even
- 56:35Speaker 5: to speed up you know, Saint Mary.
- 56:38Speaker 4: They're very good at not turning it over St. Mary's.
- 56:42Speaker 4: And yeah, because Bucky ball is so different and they've
- 56:46Speaker 4: never seen it before, it's probably.
- 56:47Speaker 2: A little tricky. So good point, but.
- 56:50Speaker 4: Bennett's so good, like so so good that I think
- 56:53Speaker 4: he'll solve it. And sadly, I do like Bucky mcgeownie's great.
- 56:58Speaker 4: You wish it was interviews as presh because he's great.
- 57:01Speaker 4: He seems like a really good dude. He seems genuine,
- 57:03Speaker 4: unlike most of the bullshitters that are in this industry.
- 57:06Speaker 4: I think he knows what he's doing. I'm just not
- 57:08Speaker 4: sure his style works well for them to be elite.
- 57:14Speaker 5: So I agree with you one d percent of me,
- 57:19Speaker 5: But thank you.
- 57:20Speaker 6: You mentioned a couple of weeks back that you don't
- 57:23Speaker 6: always change your power ratings. I can't hear the power ratings.
- 57:28Speaker 6: How often do you adjust them? And in the you
- 57:32Speaker 6: mentioned a couple of weeks ago you don't do it
- 57:33Speaker 6: too often because you said it and whatever it is,
- 57:35Speaker 6: you're going with it well. In the in the book
- 57:39Speaker 6: The Odds, the author says that you adjusted him all
- 57:43Speaker 6: the time.
- 57:46Speaker 4: Yeah, it's an ongoing adjustment. However, So you start off
- 57:51Speaker 4: with ex players with X talent, and I'm guessing at
- 57:55Speaker 4: a rating to start the year, especially now with there
- 57:58Speaker 4: all new players. Back in the day, when there was
- 58:00Speaker 4: you know, eight or nine players coming back for every team,
- 58:03Speaker 4: figuring out a power rating wasn't as difficult. But now
- 58:06Speaker 4: with the nil are as kind of a guess. So
- 58:09Speaker 4: at the beginning, I'm more apt because I am guessing
- 58:13Speaker 4: to change ratings fairly often. At some point, if I
- 58:17Speaker 4: think I know how good a team is, I'm just
- 58:20Speaker 4: gonna stick with that rating because the team's not changing
- 58:22Speaker 4: barring some injury. And even though they're gonna play too
- 58:26Speaker 4: much higher than that rating and much lower that rating,
- 58:29Speaker 4: that's called being human. You have your good days and
- 58:31Speaker 4: bad the rating still stays the same. This is on
- 58:34Speaker 4: average how well they're gonna play, and I'm less apt
- 58:41Speaker 4: to change it as the year goes on, And if
- 58:42Speaker 4: I get comfortable with the team's rating, I'm sticking with it.
- 58:45Speaker 4: I don't care what happens. So yes, at the beginning,
- 58:48Speaker 4: it's changed a lot, so Chad, Chad said it because
- 58:52Speaker 4: it is ever changing, and I could change the team's
- 58:55Speaker 4: rating at the end of the year. I knocked Saint
- 58:57Speaker 4: Louis at the end of the year because they completely imploded.
- 58:59Speaker 4: I knocked and he stayed at the end of the
- 59:01Speaker 4: year because I had him overrated. So there are moments
- 59:06Speaker 4: when I'm going to change it because I make mistakes.
- 59:08Speaker 4: I'm and I make a lot of them. I'm human.
- 59:11Speaker 4: That's why I'm trying to battle these sophisticated computer programs
- 59:14Speaker 4: and proudly I can still beat it. So and this
- 59:17Speaker 4: isn't me bragging. This is just fact. Like I didn't
- 59:20Speaker 4: earn money as a model, that's for sure. Uh so.
- 59:25Speaker 4: But but good point, Yeah, Chad, Chad. Technically it's always changing.
- 59:30Speaker 4: But if I don't know how good a team is
- 59:32Speaker 4: twenty games in, I probably should be doing something else
- 59:34Speaker 4: for a living.
- 59:36Speaker 3: May Yeah.
- 59:37Speaker 4: And but once I once I know how good a
- 59:39Speaker 4: team is, I'm going with it.
- 59:40Speaker 1: Allen, Hi, I'm Calvin from Philly. Calvin, Calvin, know my pleasure, sir.
- 59:47Speaker 1: That's right, Brothers, listen, you're one of the first people
- 59:52Speaker 1: here to uh on the podcast acknowledge the NIL money
- 59:57Speaker 1: did the impact that has had in the betting. I'm
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: starting to notice, like last year, losing games that I
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: shouldn't have lost, and then when I go and see
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: the payroll, I go, oh, I didn't realize that this
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: made this much difference because I thought I thought, I
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: don't know, I'm just ignorant. I thought the money was
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: a little bit more evenly distributed. I didn't realize it's yeah,
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: Like I didn't realize the have still have in the head.
- 1:00:23Speaker 4: So you know, one of the first people.
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: So what are you doing to compensate for that when
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: you handicap?
- 1:00:29Speaker 4: Like, are you going looking at I wish I had
- 1:00:31Speaker 4: went and looked at how much ANIL money there was
- 1:00:34Speaker 4: for each shame. That would have been a good way
- 1:00:36Speaker 4: to evaluate the teams to.
- 1:00:37Speaker 2: Start the year.
- 1:00:37Speaker 4: Right, the guys are getting paid more, unless you're really
- 1:00:40Speaker 4: fuck up, are probably better. Okay, So that was a
- 1:00:44Speaker 4: hole in my game, Like, I didn't know Wynden would
- 1:00:46Speaker 4: had a lot of ANIL money. Well, I don't even
- 1:00:49Speaker 4: know where it is. It's a Missouri No, it's not.
- 1:00:53Speaker 4: I don't even know where it's either yeah, it's a
- 1:00:55Speaker 4: Missuri since Saint Thomas, Missouri, I think, But who the
- 1:00:58Speaker 4: I mean, they were just D two who knew they
- 1:01:00Speaker 4: had a lot of nil money. Tennessee State had the
- 1:01:03Speaker 4: most nil money in the league. They're in a tournament.
- 1:01:05Speaker 4: Sienna had the most nil money in the NAAC. They're
- 1:01:09Speaker 4: in the tournament. And in fact, the NCAA allots more
- 1:01:13Speaker 4: nil money to the power schools. This is why it's corrupt.
- 1:01:16Speaker 4: This is why it's a rigg game. That's why I've
- 1:01:18Speaker 4: known it's the rig game all these years. They've always
- 1:01:20Speaker 4: wanted three or four power conferences breakaway, and I've talked
- 1:01:23Speaker 4: about this ad nauseam on the podcast or won't go
- 1:01:25Speaker 4: there again. But yeah, the power schools are allotted more
- 1:01:30Speaker 4: money and they are allowed to play nil games where
- 1:01:35Speaker 4: they get paid. So not only do they get more
- 1:01:38Speaker 4: money to start the year, but also they get to
- 1:01:40Speaker 4: play games where they get paid more during the year.
- 1:01:42Speaker 4: And the rest of it is all fundraising, and the
- 1:01:45Speaker 4: spirit of nil is cool. The spirit of nil is
- 1:01:49Speaker 4: all right. I live in Philly and there's a local
- 1:01:50Speaker 4: pizza joint that wants to be involved with Drexel. Let's
- 1:01:54Speaker 4: say so they pay a kit fifty thousand dollars to
- 1:01:58Speaker 4: be the face, you know, faces on a piece of
- 1:02:00Speaker 4: box and he's getting paid fifty grand for it. But
- 1:02:04Speaker 4: of course that's not what it is. It's let's see
- 1:02:06Speaker 4: who can buy the most players and buy a team
- 1:02:09Speaker 4: like twenty two million in Kentucky. Kentucky's got all the
- 1:02:12Speaker 4: money down there, all that old school you know, Hillbilly's
- 1:02:16Speaker 4: got it all, all the old school farmers. Yeah, they
- 1:02:19Speaker 4: got all the money them in the moment. The moment's
- 1:02:21Speaker 4: got all the money too. That's why b Yu can
- 1:02:23Speaker 4: spend a trillion dollars on it. And that's how it is.
- 1:02:26Speaker 4: It's a farce. But I didn't do anything to compensate
- 1:02:30Speaker 4: for it, So that was a whole in my game.
- 1:02:32Speaker 4: But good point.
- 1:02:33Speaker 7: Yeah, okay, Allen. So I want to talk props with you.
- 1:02:37Speaker 7: Last year all four and ones made the Final four.
- 1:02:41Speaker 7: This year, there's lines out there over under one and
- 1:02:44Speaker 7: a half ones to make the Final four to over
- 1:02:47Speaker 7: under two and a half number one seats to make
- 1:02:49Speaker 7: the Final four.
- 1:02:50Speaker 3: What do you think of those?
- 1:02:51Speaker 7: Are more than two or more than three or excuse me,
- 1:02:55Speaker 7: more than one and a half, more than.
- 1:02:57Speaker 3: Sixty at bet MGM. Right now, I lay that one.
- 1:03:00Speaker 3: I go over it was minus one and a quarter.
- 1:03:02Speaker 7: Yesterday, Yeah, I think, yeah, over two and a half
- 1:03:07Speaker 7: is plus one ninety here draws, I would actually, so
- 1:03:11Speaker 7: are you thinking over?
- 1:03:15Speaker 4: So?
- 1:03:15Speaker 2: Who has Connecticut as a two seed?
- 1:03:18Speaker 4: What do you want? What one seed has Connecticut as
- 1:03:21Speaker 4: a two in their bracket? Dukes in the number one
- 1:03:25Speaker 4: and the duke's won with the Connecticut bracket. And then
- 1:03:29Speaker 4: the other tricky two seed is uh Houston Houston ward
- 1:03:34Speaker 4: all right?
- 1:03:35Speaker 7: Over, so over one and a half. What about over
- 1:03:39Speaker 7: two and a half plus one ninety? Over two and
- 1:03:41Speaker 7: a half plus one night, I go over two and
- 1:03:42Speaker 7: a half two okay? And ultimately, who do you have
- 1:03:45Speaker 7: winning at all?
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: Florida?
- 1:03:47Speaker 5: Okay, even though Florida playing might play.
- 1:03:50Speaker 4: In Houston, they'll be Houston Houston's young and and they'll
- 1:03:56Speaker 4: be better next year if he hangs on to it.
- 1:03:57Speaker 4: Kelvin Samps is.
- 1:03:58Speaker 2: Very good at.
- 1:04:00Speaker 4: But Florida Florida. I talked about this, I think on
- 1:04:03Speaker 4: the podcast, right yeah Florida, Yeah, yeah, I bet Florida
- 1:04:06Speaker 4: about a month ago to win it. And their guards
- 1:04:09Speaker 4: have gotten more comfortable. They have an Ivy League guard
- 1:04:13Speaker 4: IVY League not known for athleticism, but he's projected like
- 1:04:16Speaker 4: second round draft pick. But he's only faced like IVY
- 1:04:18Speaker 4: League competition. So it took a while for him to
- 1:04:20Speaker 4: adjust to the new system he's playing in and to
- 1:04:24Speaker 4: adjust to the athleticism that he's now facing nightly.
- 1:04:27Speaker 2: And he's gotten comfortable with it.
- 1:04:29Speaker 4: And uh, they have elite rim protection, they have an
- 1:04:32Speaker 4: elite coach. Many of the players went through it last
- 1:04:35Speaker 4: year and I just think they I think they'll do
- 1:04:38Speaker 4: it again.
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: The person who's asking the question next is on a
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: big role himself in college basketball.
- 1:04:44Speaker 2: Let's follow him, That's what I What did I tell you?
- 1:04:46Speaker 3: I said, let's follow you.
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: Yeah, he's twenty I don't know what I'm doing twenty
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: in the last twenty three.
- 1:04:50Speaker 8: All right, go ahead, nice, Alan has a going Tyson
- 1:04:53Speaker 8: bet Sports, big fan of yours. I love watching the show,
- 1:04:56Speaker 8: love watching you and crack every week. Tyson Tyson, Yeah, okay, yeah,
- 1:05:04Speaker 8: I just got a question for you. I have Arkansas
- 1:05:07Speaker 8: making a deep run in this tournament, and I just
- 1:05:08Speaker 8: want to know your thoughts on Arkansas and what you
- 1:05:11Speaker 8: think they're capable of doing.
- 1:05:12Speaker 4: They're very capable. They've played some humongous, humongous. They took
- 1:05:16Speaker 4: Duke to the wire basically on a neutral right, so
- 1:05:18Speaker 4: they're certainly capable of it. But I love Cala Harry
- 1:05:22Speaker 4: the person. I love the hes as straight shot that
- 1:05:24Speaker 4: he tells the NCAA to fuck off, Like I love that,
- 1:05:29Speaker 4: And they screwed him as a result by giving him
- 1:05:31Speaker 4: short rest and shipping him the Oregon. But as a coach,
- 1:05:35Speaker 4: he's not up to snuff. His ex's and o's aren't
- 1:05:38Speaker 4: very good, and I think that will get him, Like, yeah,
- 1:05:42Speaker 4: I don't know.
- 1:05:43Speaker 3: I didn't.
- 1:05:43Speaker 4: I didn't look at their draw like they're gonna struggle
- 1:05:45Speaker 4: in his first game a little bit. I think, don't
- 1:05:47Speaker 4: get them. But but their best game is very dangerous.
- 1:05:52Speaker 4: It's just they can't they just they're too far below
- 1:05:55Speaker 4: the best teams and and his coaching can't overcome the fact.
- 1:05:59Speaker 3: That they are okay.
- 1:06:00Speaker 8: And then the other team, I like, making a kind
- 1:06:03Speaker 8: of a run is VCU what's your thoughts on that?
- 1:06:05Speaker 4: Who Oh, they're not nearly good enough and and they're
- 1:06:10Speaker 4: and they're they almost pissed away the game. But in
- 1:06:12Speaker 4: the conference the final, it was it was disgusting what
- 1:06:14Speaker 4: they did.
- 1:06:15Speaker 2: No, they're not nearly good enough.
- 1:06:17Speaker 3: Yeah, anyone else a question for Allen.
- 1:06:20Speaker 5: I do want to I do want to take a
- 1:06:21Speaker 5: moment here to thank crack for putting this on. Yeah,
- 1:06:25Speaker 5: the people's the people's man.
- 1:06:27Speaker 1: Uh try to, but we got to thank Allen for
- 1:06:30Speaker 1: giving us his time each week.
- 1:06:32Speaker 3: It's not easy.
- 1:06:33Speaker 4: Thank you.
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: It's not easy, you know, Uh coming on every single week.
- 1:06:37Speaker 3: He's trying to.
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: We try to film on Thursdays because Friday's slower. You know,
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: Allen's working doing the game, so it's tough. So I
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: appreciate him coming on. Appreciate you people coming Alan.
- 1:06:47Speaker 4: Allen does this in the hopes that if one person
- 1:06:50Speaker 4: learns something or one person enjoys it, it's worth it.
- 1:06:53Speaker 2: Allen gets paid nothing for this. Allen's up promoting himself.
- 1:06:56Speaker 4: Ready, they appreciate it. So yeah, I'm flattered at some
- 1:07:00Speaker 4: of the comments and surprised.
- 1:07:02Speaker 2: Actually I'm both surprised and flattered. So it's very very cool.
- 1:07:05Speaker 4: And seriously, man, there's no such thing as a bad question,
- 1:07:08Speaker 4: so anything you ask is fine.