S4 Global Macro Risk: U.S.–Canada–EU Fracture, Tariffs, Defense Supercycle, India Tech & Dedollarization

Deep Press Analysis · Jan 26, 2026 · 18m

A Decision Intelligence briefing on the 2026 global macro shift: escalating transatlantic trade fracture risk (U.S.–Canada–EU), weaponized protectionism, and scenario-based outcomes for markets. We map the probabilities—Trade Siege (60%), Deal of the Strong (25%), Full Break (15%)—and explain what would trigger each path, from targeted tariffs to a universal baseline tariff regime.

We also unpack the defense supercycle (capital rotation toward hard power), Europe’s defense momentum (including CSG), India’s state-backed scaling (HAL “Maharatna” status), and the strategic implications of…