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Best Bets Today | Rays Down 0-2 Heading Home?! | MLB, WNBA, NFL, NBA & NHL Picks Monday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Really nice day on the show yesterday. Went 4-1 to
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: complete an 8-3 weekend, so I am happy about that.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Another good series of NFL picks for the week, so
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: that went well as well. We got the Indianapolis Colts right.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: They looked like they were going to win the game,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: and that Minnesota offense is still really bad. They did
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: get one touchdown later in the game, and Indy wound
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: up not scoring again against that Very good Minnesota defense.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: An Indy loss, but still covered. Even if you got
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the six and a half, they covered. They lost by six,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: so we got that. The Rams were pretty much a
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: no-sweat winner. They got out to a huge lead, and then, yeah,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the Raiders put up some points late. Kind of garbage
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: time stuff, but that was never in doubt. Easy win
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: with the Rams on that one. Basketball, NBA went really
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: well as well yesterday. Indiana Pacers ran away with it.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: That was an easy one. The Orlando Magic looked like
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: it might not win. They never were really out of
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: that game, though. They were just kind of hanging around
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: close to that number, and then they made a nice
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: late run, and they wound up winning the game outright.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So we got the nice win with the Magic there
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: in that one as well. The Knicks go to 0-3.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I told you, man, I mean, their start to the
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: schedule was not easy, and going into that game yesterday,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I thought that might happen. My only prediction as far
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: as my wild predictions that went wrong was all of
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the undefeated NFL teams did not lose. Two out of
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: the three did. The only one that won was the Vikings,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: and that could have been a loss as well. So
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I was kind of on with those picks as we
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: had San Francisco went down. We had Miami won, so
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: I said that the one winless team was going to
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: win yesterday, so that was right. And the other undefeated team,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: who was the other undefeated team? Kansas City, of course. Yeah,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: so I had Seattle right in the night game as well.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: All right. Um, and of course we did have a loser.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to lie. Uh, Vancouver Canucks, not good.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: They were just, they got outplayed in the game. What
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: can you say? It was not the right play. They,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I guess tried to make a comeback.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: The final score was respectable. They had gotten one more
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: goal would have been a push, but it is what
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: it is, man. We got a bunch of sports in
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: action today. The world series resumes, WNBA resumes. And I am,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what the WNBA is doing now, man.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I got the length of the series wrong because I
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: guess they changed that, so I will talk about that.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We have Monday Night Football. There's a little bit of hockey,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: and there's some NBA today as well, but I am
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: skipping the board today. I will give out what my
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: strongest opinions are. I will give some sort of opinion
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: on all the games, even though they're not going to
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: be that strong. I'll call out whatever the stronger ones are,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: which I think mostly are in the NBA, and that'll
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: be the show today. You know, hopefully it's still interesting.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Hopefully it will guide you in whatever you want to
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: do with today's board. Maybe there are ways to attack
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: it for sure. I'm not going to be doing it,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: but all of that coming up after the intro.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: in your chest.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: You look like a mess.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your hand.
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: The chips like they made you this man.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: Look at me now.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Hold on.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: Hold on.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: Not tonight.
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: Not now.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Hold on.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Let me pull you out. That fella fights hard.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: But he don't get the crown.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Now Let's get into it. I've got to bring up
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: the NFL schedule as well here just because I usually
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: have everything ready to go, and I don't. I apologize.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: All right. Starting with NHL, though, we have three games.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: I think every game is in the evening on the
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: board today, so we don't have to worry about any
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: afternoon action here. Kings at Rangers is the first game up.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: We have the battle of the two teams who last
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: year were horrific home teams and good road teams. That
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: isn't really the case this year, though. The Kings started
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: out really slow, but they've improved a little bit. They
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: got some wins recently. They did lose their last game
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: to New Jersey. I think they'll probably be focused here
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: as they continue the road trip, and they complete the
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: New York Triangle, if you will, with one day off
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: in between each game. So not really horrible travel here.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: They just lost in New Jersey. For the Rangers... They're
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: starting to not play so well here, as may be expected,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: because they weren't expected to do that much this year. And,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: of course, without their star goaltender for the rest of
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the year, you kind of expected things like this were
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: going to happen. They've lost four of their last five.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: But they're coming off some embarrassing losses at Toronto, at Ottawa,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: giving up 12 goals over those two games. And their
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: offense was productive in those games. They lost both games anyway. Technically,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: they're returning home from a road trip, which I don't
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: necessarily love, but it was a two-game road trip, so
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: it wasn't a long road trip where a bunch of
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: stuff would pile up where they have to do at
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: home and that they have to do at home, I
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: should say, so it shouldn't be that much of a distraction.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: They do face Edmonton next, so a possible look ahead there,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: but it's not for whatever that is, six days, so
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: they do get a break after this. After those two losses,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I don't really expect the Rangers to be unfocused here,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: but I think both teams... come in in kind of
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: a focused bounce back spot here. I'm going to lean
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: to the Kings. The market read is kind of indicating
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: that as well. 91% of the tickets are on the Rangers.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: So the Rangers still a public side because they have
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: an above 500 record while the Kings do not. But
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are kind of telling you the Rangers
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: aren't that much of the better team, really. They're down
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: from minus 141 to minus 130 or so on the
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: money line here. And they have, like I said, 91%
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, a lot of, public ticket um a
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: huge amount of the public ticket count on the rangers
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: let's say and only 82 of the cash only so
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: i think the republic side with less of the money
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: on them the real money seems to be on the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: kings so i will agree with that in that one
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: but not a strong opinion uh toronto at calgary i
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: considered this at first because i knew toronto was coming
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: up that win that we got uh When we played
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: them here on the show the other day, and they
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: beat up Edmonton, a huge blowout win for Toronto. Their
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: fourth win in a row. That was a huge win, though.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Nice upset at Edmonton. Extremely satisfying when you absolutely pummel
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: a good opponent like Edmonton like that. You gotta think
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: this is a pretty clear letdown spot that Toronto's in
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: here after that. They play Seattle next, and while I've
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: been bad monthly Seattle, they do still have a pretty
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: good record, so it makes Calgary pretty easy to overlook
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: in a spot like this. So Calgary looks like they're
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: going to be the right side here. Uh, Calgary is
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: on a nice little run here too, though. They've won
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. So the question is, you
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: have to worry about any sort of letdown with them
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: and they have Edmonton coming up in two days. So
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I think that's the biggest issue with wanting to play
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Calgary here is Edmonton is like their biggest rival. Cause
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: they're both in the province of Alberta and Edmonton's been
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: the better team for who knows how long now. So,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Calgary is going to get up for that game, so
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: there's the worry Calgary might not be focused here either.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: They haven't had a letdown yet from beating Carolina and
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: then beating Minnesota. They still won against Detroit after that,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: and I believe we may have lost. Did we lose
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: on the show with that one? I don't remember. Yeah,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I can't remember if I gave up Detroit in that
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: game or not. I don't think I did, but I
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: don't know. I forget. Seems like something I might have done,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: depending on what Detroit's situation was, but Calgary is... Looking
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: like they're the correct side here based on the market.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Toronto's laying like minus 160 on the road here. It
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: looks like that number has dropped a little bit though.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: At their public, 87% of tickets on them, only 79%
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: of the cash. So I would agree with this market
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: read and fade Toronto if I was going to play this.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Calgary here. I think the spot
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: probably is worse for Toronto here. Coming off just a really,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: really big win. Extremely satisfying win for them. Calgary may
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: just be playing a little bit better.
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Cooley looks like he's kind of their guy now in net,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: and we'll see how that works out for them. I
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: still don't think they're a very good team, though. And obviously,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers don't seem to think so either. But I
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: think Calgary would be the lead in this game. You
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: could play like a plus-one puck line or something on this.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Or maybe, actually, at this price, maybe you just play
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the money line. So I think both of my... these
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: first two games would be money line opinions. And then
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the final game is where we have the biggest uh
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: favorite which is detroit at edmonton obviously edmonton is a
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: fairly substantial favorite here although detroit seems to be getting
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: some respect in the market because i thought this was
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: going to be like minus 200 and edmonton's like minus
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: 180 detroit's coming up that real ugly loss to the
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: flames you could make the argument detroit was looking ahead
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: to this oilers game because who's going to pay attention
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: to the flames right now you know So I think
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: maybe Detroit was looking ahead here to this game. Edmonton, though,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: you've got to think they're in bounce-back mode after that
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: horrendous loss to the Maple Leafs. And it was a
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: bad spot, if you remember. The reason I gave out
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the Maple Leafs there was primarily because Edmonton had just
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: beaten Utah the Wild and the Hurricanes in overtime, all
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: in quick succession. So they were coming off a run
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: of huge games. I just thought they'd have nothing left
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: in the tank, and that was the case. Edmonton looks
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: like they're starting to struggle a little bit on the
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: defensive end again, maybe with the goaltending. They've been giving
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: up some goals in these last few games, though, but
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: this does look like a bounce-back spot for them after
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: that ugly loss, although I know they lost a three-game
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: win streak. Sometimes I talk about how that will hang
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: a team over, but Yeah, this game's hard to figure out.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: 87% of the tickets and cash on Edmonton. Edmonton is
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: a public side, as expected. They're about minus 180, but
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: out of the three sides, all three games have really
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: public sides. This is the one where I'd be the
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: least willing to fade the public, actually, in this one.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I think Edmonton might get the job done here and win,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: but if you want to play Edmonton here, you'd have
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: to do Edmonton to win in regulation or something to
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: get the price down, so You lose that bet if
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: it goes into overtime. But they have such high scoring
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: games that there's more variance there. So it's probably more
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: likely they would get the win in regulation if they're
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: going to win this game. Or you could make it
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: a minus one puck line situation maybe. I think I
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: would actually slightly lean Edmonton here because I think when
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: you have two teams... that both should be focused to
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: like the same extent. Basically, I think the better team
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: has a tendency to win out. So that's kind of
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: what I'm thinking there, but yeah, not a strong opinion
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: at all. Uh, NBA, we have, I think eight or
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: nine games here or something like that. All of them
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: in the evening, starting with Washington at Charlotte, Washington, we
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: still have not seen Debonza make his debut yet. So
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know when that's going to happen. They're, number
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: one draft pick they're two and one to start the
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: season but they beat very bad teams milwaukee and chicago
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: are their two wins but they had a loss to
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: toronto that wasn't really that bad either so i think
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: this washington team is they're on the upswing let's say
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: it looks like debonza is still listed as out though
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: so he has yet to make his debut i don't
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: know what's going on because it seemed like he was
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: going to play in the last game and that didn't
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: happen but i guess i would not expect him to
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: play here either at this point so i don't know
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: when that will happen Washington, they do have Antonio Davis,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: or Anthony, Antonio Davis, Anthony Davis, and Trey Young there, though.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: So this Washington team does have some star power on
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: this team now that people seem to maybe be forgetting about.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: They're coming off barely beating Chicago in their last game,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: so I don't really see Washington being unfocused in this one.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: They do have Cleveland next. I don't know if that's
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: that big of a deal or not. Charlotte, also off
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: to a 2-1 start. They have the better win out
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: of the two teams with a win over the heat
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: which i believe was their most recent games i don't
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: know if that's going to set them up for any
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: sort of letdown because the heat have not been playing
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: well either even though they have yannis now they are
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: oh and three but maybe beating yannis maybe that does
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: make you a little bit um too confident let's say
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and i think the worry for charlotte might be more
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: that they have to play detroit next that's a huge
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: game and that's all i believe that's also revenge if
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: i'm not mistaken right uh Correct me if I'm wrong,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: but I think Detroit eliminated Charlotte last year. Did they not?
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Or no, did Charlotte fail to even get into the playoffs?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: I can't remember. They were in the play-ins. Maybe they
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: got eliminated in the play-ins. I can't remember. Garrett, if
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: you're out there, you can remind me. Edit Slotky. What's up, man?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out how to pronounce your name.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Caleb Wilson, 17 points. You're talking about for your fantasy team.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Caleb Wilson. Who the hell, not Caleb Williams, Caleb Wilson?
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Kenny, what is his projection? Oh, you're
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: talking about, yeah, fantasy basketball. Can he score seven, or
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: maybe just, are you talking about a prop probably? Can
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: he score 17? I don't know. I'm in fantasy mode here.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I was thinking Caleb Williams at first, thinking football. I'm like,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: wait a minute, the Bears aren't playing. Can Caleb Wilson
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: for the Bulls score 17 points is your question? I
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: don't know. Is that what the line is on the prop?
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I honestly have no idea. I'm really not a prop guy. Um,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: especially not in the NBA, but I mean, I could,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I could probably give an opinion on that. If I
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: could look at his, uh, game log here real quick,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: he's averaging 22.3. Um, let me see. He's only not
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: scored that once in the first game where maybe offense
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: is a little bit rusty and his shooting was off
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: in that first game. So I would say he should
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: be able to, I mean, the one game where he didn't,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: his shooting was just way off. Um, Although, you know,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, he kind of overperformed in his last game, though.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: So I'd be a little bit worried about that, where
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: he went to the free throw line a lot, and
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: that kind of skewed his point total there in the
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: last game. But he did also miss a ton of
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: threes in that game. So there might be some positive
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: regression there. I don't know. I probably wouldn't play him
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: over in this one, though, just because he scored 30
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: in the last game. I'd be a little bit worried
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: about that. Who are the Bulls playing today? Let me see. Oh,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: they're playing the Celtics. Yeah, I don't think I would
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: do it against the– well, I don't know. I mean,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: the Celtics, they play good defense, and they slow the
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: pace of the game way down, so that probably kind
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: of hurts offensive props for the opponent. The one good
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: thing is that there might be some garbage time scoring here,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: but if there's garbage time scoring, that might mean Wilson's
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: not even in the game at that point. I don't know.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: But also, I will say– well, I mean, I should
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: save it for my– analysis on that game, but the Celtics,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: they're in the type of spot where they tend to
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: overlook their opponent, though. So, you know, Chicago might do
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: better than people think in that game just in general.
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I was going to be looking at
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: that game, I would be playing a side in that game,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: but that's because that's what I do, and you kind
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: of know which way I'm leaning in that game already,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: which I'll talk about in a second. For Washington and Charlotte, though,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: I think the main thing here is Charlotte is Look
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: ahead possibility to Detroit here. Even if it's not revenge
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: or anything, I still think that's kind of the biggest
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: situational disadvantage here. So I would lean Washington in this one,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: but the money does not agree with me. 54% of
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 70% of the cash on Charlotte. Charlotte's a
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite. Now, odds makers kind
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: of telling you they think these teams are about even though,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: as far as their power ratings. Cause that's, you know,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: you probably get in the NBA, you probably only get
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: like one, for home court, basically won one and a half. So,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: odds bigger is telling you these teams are close to
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: even here. So, that's what's going on in that game.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and Cleveland, I do have an opinion on this one.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: This is one of my strongest opinions. This is probably
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: the strongest opinion I have in the NBA today. And
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: you're looking at a Minnesota team, it's 3-0, and they've
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: blown out all their opponents so far. The Heat, the Magic,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: and the Raptors. But I think the Cavs are the
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: best opponent they're going to have faced so far, even
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: though the Cavs They haven't looked good. I know they've
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: blown some games in epic fashion, but this is going
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: to be Minnesota's most difficult test so far. Minnesota's good.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. They're 3-0. I think the
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Western Conference is strong, but they might get tripped up here, man,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: and I do not want to be backing a team
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: that is 3-0 with just three blowout wins, and they
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: might look a little bit too good, whereas Cleveland is 1-1,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: so nobody's going to want them here. Their only win
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: is against the Nets, and they didn't cover that one.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: And we got a win on the show with the Nets,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: plus 11 on Saturday. But if you look at what
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Cleveland did in their two games, the first one they
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: lost to Philadelphia. I mean, that's obviously a difficult game
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to win. But if you remember what happened in that game,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Cleveland was winning that game by 29 points in the
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: second half, and they somehow found a way to blow that.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: And it was the biggest blown lead in modern NBA history.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: So Cleveland could have won that game quite easily. They
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: had a massive lead in that game. So that final
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: score doesn't really tell you exactly what happened. And then
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: in the Brooklyn game, I thought there was no way
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: we were going to get that cover because Cleveland was
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: winning that game by more than 20. Maybe even in
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter they were. And Brooklyn made this big
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: late run to get back within the number there. So
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has a problem with holding on to leads. There's
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: no question about that. But the fact that Cleveland has had...
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: these massive leads in these two games, including on the
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: road against Philly. This Cleveland team is not really quite
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: as bad as these results look so far. And they
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: are coming off basically a scare from Brooklyn, where Brooklyn
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: came all the way back. I think Cleveland just got complacent.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: They thought the game was over. Brooklyn came all the
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: way back and cut it to two, probably with not
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: enough time left. But still, that could probably scare Cleveland
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit. You know they're going to have to
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: come out more focused here. So, yeah, I like Cleveland
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: in this one. And it's going to look really strange
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: to see a 3-0 Minnesota team be an underdog against
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: a one-on-one team right Cleveland's already up from a three-point
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: opener to three and a half or four even four
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: and a halves are starting to show here it's you
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: know it's basketball so every point is a little bit
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: key in that range so I'd rather have the lower
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: number on Cleveland here but I think the only way
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: to play this game is to lay the points with
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Cleveland or find a way to play their money line
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: or something like that. Yeah, I like Cleveland in this game,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: and I think this might be the strongest opinion that
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: I have on the entire board today. Yeah, seeing a
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: 3-0 team being an underdog like this, that should set
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: off alarm bells everywhere, and Minnesota is a public underdog here,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: which should also be a major red flag. They have
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: 65% of the tickets on them and only 59% of
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the cash. So the real money is coming in on Cleveland.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: And like I said, we see the line moving against
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: where the public ticket percentage is because the line has
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: moved up. So that is reverse line movement. That tells
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: you the real money is back in Cleveland here. I
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: would agree. And I think if I was going to
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: play any of the NBA games today, this one may
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: be the one at the top of the list, but
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I would much rather have three and a half. Then
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: four and a half, obviously. But I think you might
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: be able to find four out there right now. That's
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: probably okay. Like, I think if Cleveland does win this game,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: I think they will be able to get that done.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: But we will see. It's likely that if they win,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: they will cover. That's just what the, you know, those
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: are just the odds of the whole thing. Like, typically,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: the team that wins also covers, like, the majority of
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the time. You know what I mean? Especially a small
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: spread like this. So, yeah, I like the Cavs in
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: that one.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Chicago and Boston. I mean, you kind of got my
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: thoughts on the Chicago player props there, but as far
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: as the side, it seems this is pretty simple. This
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: is not my least strong opinion. I think this is
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: one of my stronger opinions. I'm a Celtics fan, so
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I know how the Celtics operate in the Missoula era,
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off two huge games where they blew
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: a 22-point lead against Detroit late in the game, and
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: they were still up, I think, you know, 17-18 in
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter or something. And they blew that against
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: a good Detroit team. So that was a big game.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: You know, a catastrophic blown loss basically. Celtics were able
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: to stay focused in their next game because they were
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: playing the Knicks. That's a huge game too. Celtics won that.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: So that was a big win for the Celtics to
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: get that win against the Knicks, the champs. So I
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: think the way to look at this is this is
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot for the Celtics coming into this one.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: And I know they've had a couple of days off
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: here sitting at home, but they might just kind of
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: be letting that wind simmer. You know what I mean?
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: I would probably be on Chicago here if the Celtics
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: had a big game on deck, which I don't consider
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn to be a big game. Although Brooklyn has given
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: the Celtics problems the last couple of years. But yeah,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: it's because the Celtics usually play Brooklyn in a spot
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: where they're not going to be focused. And I think
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: this is a spot where the Celtics are not going
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: to be focused. Like I said, I know how the
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Celtics operate, and the games where they typically do the
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: worst are games exactly like this, where they're at home,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a monster game, and they're playing a
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: team they think they can beat easily, and they're big favorites.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: The Celtics usually just have a complete mental lapse in
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: games like this, so I would not be shocked if
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: they lost this game. I mean, obviously... I wouldn't expect
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: that necessarily. Obviously, it's not going to shock me that
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: the Celtics win this game by 20 either. But yeah,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: this is the type of spot where they do not
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: typically show a lot of focus. So I like the
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Bulls in this game as bad as they are. But
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of points with the Bulls, obviously.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: The Bulls, you know, I mean, they haven't played that
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: well so far. Last two games, they were competitive, though.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: I know it was against Milwaukee and the Wizards, so
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: obviously the Celtics are a step up from that. And
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the best team Chicago played so far was the Raptors,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: and they blew the Bulls out. I don't see the
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Celtics being able to actually do that here. Celtics also
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: play slow pace, like I said, even though they are
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: considered to be this you know, kind of juggernaut. They
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: hit a lot of threes and whatever, but they also
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: have a lot of three-point variance where if they're missing
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: their shots, things do not go well. Celtics look like
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: they're getting the money, but I do not agree with that.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: 58% of tickets and 79% of the cash. I'm surprised
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: they're not more public, to be honest. They're up to
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: a 14.5-point favorite at some places here. Yeah, I would
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: only take the points with the Bulls in that one.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: That's the way I would play it. And the total...
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: What's the total in that game? Total's in the low 230s. So,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's not low, but it's not like the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: highest total either. Chicago tends to play at a much
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: faster pace than the Celtics do. That's what they're going
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: to try to do. But the Celtics, if they're a
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: huge favorite that likes to try to slow the pace down,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: that's not a good recipe for covering a large number
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: like that either. All right. Dallas at Miami. NBA TV's
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: got this game. at 7.30 p.m. Eastern. As I already mentioned,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Miami's 0-3 to start the season. Dallas does have a
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: win on their record here, but you'll notice Miami is
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: like an 8.5-point favorite here. So you've got to think
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: that's another thing that should open your eyes a little bit.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I like this game too. I like Cleveland, I like Chicago,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: and I think I like Cleveland the best. I think
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I like Miami the next best, and then Chicago. I
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: think those are my top three favorites. opinions probably of
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the day, definitely on the NBA board here. But yeah,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: when you see an 0-3 team laying eight and a half,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: there's a reason for that. The Osmegris are telling you
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Miami is actually the better team. And I know they
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: have not coalesced yet as a team. They have to
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: get used to having this new lineup here with Giannis
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: sort of being the guy and whatever. But this is
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: a Dallas team that's really not that good. And now
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Cooper Flagg is out. And this is going to be
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: his second game out. I'm assuming he's still out because
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: he went down two games ago. And last game was
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: the injured player theory spot for them. Yeah, so Flagg
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: is out. Looks like they're missing a bunch of other
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: guys too. Lively, Caleb Martin. I mean, what else is new?
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: This Dallas team, they're like always injured, dude. It's crazy. Now, Dallas...
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: They had a nice win, an upset win against the Pacers,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: and they have played a difficult schedule. There's no doubt
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: about that. Dallas has been an underdog in every game.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Part of that is because they're not good, though. They
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: lost at Houston. They lost at home to the Spurs,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: and they won at Indiana, where they pulled off an
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: upset there. And that was part of the reason why
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: I wanted the Pacers yesterday because they were coming off
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: that ugly upset loss. For Dallas, yeah, there's no doubt
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: they played a difficult schedule so far, but I still
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: don't think this Dallas team is particularly good. They're coming
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: off a game that they at least get up for,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: you know, emotionally and in their mind. They played against
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the Spurs, and that was the first game without flag.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: And I talk about how when your start player goes down,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: that's usually the game where you put in an even
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: bigger effort because you know you have to with that
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: player out. But they ran into... The Spurs are a buzzsaw, man.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, what can you say? Even if Dallas put
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: up their best effort, usually they're still not going to
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: be able to beat the Spurs. And, yeah, they did
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: not beat the Spurs. Coming off of that and having
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: to fly out to Miami, I'm not sure it's exactly
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: the greatest spot for Dallas. Miami sitting at 0-3 may
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: make them more easy to overlook here. Dallas does have
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a Western Conference game up next. And, yeah, it's a
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: big one on ESPN at home against Oklahoma City. That's
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: a huge game on deck. And then they have Houston.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: after that a revenge game plus a Texas rivalry there
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: so this is a bad spot for Dallas I would
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: say the only good thing about it is they lost
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: by double digits in their last game so maybe that's
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: the one thing that will keep them focused, but I
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: don't see it. I like the Heat in this one. Heat, again,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: they've lost all three of their games so far, but
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: they played a difficult schedule too. Minnesota and Detroit, I mean,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: those are really good teams, and then the weakest team
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: they played was Charlotte, and yes, I know they lost
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: that game by five on the road. It is what
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: it is. Charlotte's an okay team, but... Dallas will be
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: the worst team Miami's faced so far, so this should
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: be a little bit easier for Miami to get this
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: thing done. I like Miami. I would lay the points
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: with Miami in this one. I think, am I talking
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: myself into this one? I mean, I like Cleveland quite
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: a bit, but this Miami one, now that I'm kind
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: of looking at the spot that Dallas is in, you know, hmm.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I do like this one. I think this one actually
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: has moved to the top of the list for me,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: and the money is agreeing with me, too. 55% of
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on Dallas, 72% of the cash on Miami.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Miami's an 8.5-point favorite. The total's gone way up to
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: almost 240, so it's a higher total, which means it's
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: probably going to be easier for the home team to
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: actually cover the spread, or for the favorite, excuse me,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: to cover the spread, because there's going to be more
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: points scored in general, most likely. yeah i i like
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: this one man you know what it felt it kind
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: of felt weird that i had some decent opinions in
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the nba and i didn't wind up with any plays
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: let's do it um i'll put that the actual number
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: that uh that i find out there i think it
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: is probably around eight eight and a half here all
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: right we'll do it we'll play miami eight and a
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: half i forgot to roll you know pre-roll my best
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: bets um little clip there but whatever we'll do it
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: we'll have one play today Miami Heat minus eight and
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: a half let's do it Miami is not on my
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: good side right now I'm four and one to start
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: the NBA season and my only loss was the second
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: play I gave up which was the Miami Heat thinking
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: they would bounce back that was against Detroit I believe
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: because I thought Detroit was in a bad spot off
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: that huge comeback and huge win against the Celtics and
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit had the Sixers next so it was a nice
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot to take Miami but um the good thing
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: about Miami is they now have three games under their
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: belt instead of one with this new lineup so you
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: got to think the chemistry is at least getting better
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: up to this point and again this is going to
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: be the weakest opponent they've faced so far so all
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: right yeah let's take the heat lay the points there
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: all right um and I i like doing that with
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: an own three team because nobody's going to want to
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: do that who's going to want to lay eight and
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: a half points with an own three team you know
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: all right indiana at milwaukee indiana is on a back-to-back
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: so that is something to be aware of here i
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: don't think any of the other teams i talked about
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: yet are on a back-to-back there are a couple today
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: that are though We got the win with Indiana yesterday,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: easy blowout win for Indiana. We laid the points with
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: them yesterday. Indiana, they might be a little bit under
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the radar, man, because Halliburton has missed significant time for
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: them the last couple of years, and he is back
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: right now, and they're playing fairly well here. They're 2-1.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: They haven't faced anybody that good yet, but Milwaukee's also
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: not good. Problem for Indiana is they're playing on a back-to-back.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: They're playing a third game in four days. and a
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: fourth game in six days, all of them in different cities,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: and they have a huge ESPN game next against Philadelphia.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: So this could be a major look ahead for Indiana.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, even though they're playing pretty well right now,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: and I think they're a little bit of an underrated team,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: this is not a good spot for Indiana. Off a
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: blowout win, which I know isn't going to make you
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: that overconfident or whatever when it's the Brooklyn Nets, but
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: still pretty major look ahead here to Philadelphia. As far
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: as Milwaukee is concerned, yeah, they're a bad team. No
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: doubt about that. They're 0-3. Haven't faced too difficult of
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: a schedule, really, except they did play the 76ers in
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: their last game. But Milwaukee covered that game, barely. But
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia was in a bad spot in that one. They
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: were in a sandwich spot. But Milwaukee was still able
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: to compete, at least in that game. You know, Milwaukee's
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: still trying to get used to their new lineup here
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: where Hero is kind of, he's their hero now. He's
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: their guy, man. He's basically the guy that's going to
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: run the offense, and he's their primary scorer, which is
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: insane to think about, but whatever. They have Houston on deck,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: possible look ahead, but when you have a team that's 0-3,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: they're not going to overlook anybody, I wouldn't think. And
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: they are also playing a fourth game in six days,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: by the way, but at least for them, they did
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: not have to play yesterday. They're returning home from Philly,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: but it was only a one-game road trip, so I'm
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: not too worried about that. So I would leave Milwaukee
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: in this game. Indiana, 53% of tickets and cash on them,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: so not a huge market read here, really. Yeah, I mean,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: we can't really dive into these numbers too deeply because
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot going on here, but Indiana
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: is a four, four and a half point favor here.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I would lean towards taking the points of
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee in that one. The line does kind of seem short, right?
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: When you have what's Indiana two and one in Milwaukee
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: zone three, lane four looks pretty easy to do. So
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of surprised Indiana is not a little bit
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: more public than they are there. But yeah. Those are
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: my thoughts there. Phoenix at Oklahoma City, of course, the
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: big thing with Oklahoma City, they're on a back-to-back. They
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, and they escaped with a win yesterday against...
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Who was it against? It was against somebody not that good.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: The Clippers, yeah. That was a tough game for me
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: to figure out, but the big thing for Oklahoma City
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: is they lost the good Jalen Williams. They have two
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Jalen Williamses. Jalen Williams, the good one, the one who...
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: plays significant time for them. Yeah, he's going to be
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: missing significant time because he had a horrific ankle injury
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: yesterday where his ankle was just completely bent in the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: wrong direction. I think he was going up for a shot,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, and he landed wrong, and he
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: was in traffic, and yeah, it was just a horrible situation.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: It looked real bad, and that's going to be a
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: huge blow to the Thunder. This is still a really
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: good team and a really deep team, but I think
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: as far as them winning the championship this year, Honestly,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: that might be off the table with a loss like that.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I know that they have a bunch of good players here,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: and they're a really deep team, but Williams is a
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: key player for them, and he was injured during their
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: series against the Spurs last year, and that was one
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: of the main reasons they were not able to get
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: through that was because they were missing him, but they
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: were also missing Mitchell, but still, this is a huge
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: blow to OKC, and now they're on a back-to-back here.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: The question is going to be, how does OKC respond
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: to that, right? Will they rally? you know, like, we
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: got to win one here, you know, after this injury,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: will they, like, will that, like, boost their motivation, basically,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: is the question, like, will they play harder because of
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: what happened yesterday, like, you know, focus on basketball, take
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: your mind off of that horrific thing that just happened. Plus,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: they didn't play well against the Clippers, so this could
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: be a bounce back for them. So I could see
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: that happening. I could see Oklahoma City coming up with
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: more intensity in this game. But they're on a back-to-back,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: which is not that easy. Phoenix is not on a back-to-back,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: so they have rest. Phoenix, after getting embarrassed in their
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: first game by the Trailblazers, they bounce back with a win.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: over the Golden State Warriors, which the Warriors, the way
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: they look right now, you know, that's not that impressive
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: of a win for Phoenix. But still, it'll give you
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: some confidence moving forward. You just beat Steph Curry and whatever.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: So this Phoenix team does come in here with a
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: little bit of rest and some momentum here. What do
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: we do with this game, man? The money is saying Phoenix.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: 61% of the tickets are on them, which that kind
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: of surprises me. But 89% of the money, so it
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: seems like the real money is on Phoenix. Oklahoma City
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: is somewhere between a 10.5 and 9.5 point favorite here.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: It is a low total. I think it's the lowest
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: total on the board. It's gone up a little bit,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: but it's at 220 basically, so Oklahoma City, definitely a
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: defensive team, although they could score as well, but this
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: game's expected to be lower scoring, which I know every
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: NBA game pretty much is high scoring. It's a high
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: scoring game, but The lower the total, the better it
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: is to take the underdog, just in general in any sport.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: It means every point is worth a little bit more.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: I guess I'll probably agree with taking the points with
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: Phoenix here. I don't really love it exactly. And I
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: did mention Oklahoma City does have a game up next
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: against somebody I already talked about here. I think it's Dallas, right?
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: So I don't think Oklahoma City is going to be
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to that.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: So.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, those are my thoughts on that one. Atlanta's at Houston,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: and this could be a zigzag spot because these teams
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: just played each other, and I thought Atlanta was going
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: to win. Atlanta started out 2-0, and I thought they
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: were going to beat Houston in their last game because
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: they caught Houston, I thought, in a good spot to
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: catch them because Houston was coming off a couple of
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: big games. Houston, I believe, had just beaten the San
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Antonio Spurs. That was a huge win for Houston, so...
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: I thought they were going to be in a major
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: letdown spot, and it didn't happen, and Atlanta lost the
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: game to Houston by seven. If you dig into the
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: game statistically, it was a really close game statistically. The
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: only real outlier there was Houston... missed a bunch of
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: their threes. Excuse me, Houston hit a bunch of their threes.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Atlanta missed a bunch of theirs. Houston, not really known
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: for taking that many threes. Both teams took a lot
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: of threes in this game. But Houston hit a bunch
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: of them. That's kind of un-Houston-like, I think. I think
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Houston's more of a paint presence type of team. So
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really expect Houston to be able to do
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: that again and hit that many threes. So I think
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: that's where the major regression lies here. I think Houston might...
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: have a worse game from three-point range. But all the
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: other stats in this game were pretty close besides the
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: three-point shooting. And then the free-throw shooting, there was a
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: little bit of a percentage disparity there too in favor
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: of Houston. But I think now this game does set
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: up for a zigzag opportunity for Atlanta here, knowing that
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Houston just came in and beat them in their own house.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Houston's 3-0. The letdown didn't happen after Houston beat the Spurs.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: After this game, Houston only plays Milwaukee, though, so they
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: do not really have a look ahead of any kind here.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: But they may overlook Atlanta, thinking, hey, if we beat
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: them in Atlanta, we should be able to beat them
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: at home, right? So I think this could be a
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: zigzag where Atlanta does bounce back here. And the zigzag
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: also works because a lot of times the line over-adjusts
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit to the result of the first game,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: but also the team that won, they don't have anything
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: to change because whatever they did worked, whereas the team
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: that lost... They have everything to change because things didn't work,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: so it usually works out better for the team at loss.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Atlanta does have Miami next. With Miami being 0-3, that
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: may not be that much of a look ahead. So yeah,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: I will lean Atlanta in this game. The money seems
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: like it agrees pretty strongly with that. Houston has 62%
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, 70% of the cash on Atlanta,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: though Houston's a 5.5-point favorite. Yeah, I like that one.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I would zigzag it and take Atlanta there. That's not
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: my least strong opinion for sure. So that's what I
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: would go with there. Memphis at Utah. Utah is on
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back, so it looks a little bit ugly for
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Utah here because they just played yesterday, and they played
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: fairly well against the Lakers. Utah was in that game
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: almost the entire way. They wound up losing by nine
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: or whatever, but they were in that game almost the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: whole way. So that was a big performance for Utah
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: against the Lakers, and now coming off of that, having
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: to play again right away, looks like maybe not the
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: easiest spot for Utah, even though I believe Memphis is
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: undefeated to start the season, but Utah does have San
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Antonio next. That may be a look ahead still, because
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: it's San Antonio, man. I mean, they almost won the
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: championship last year, and they won the conference, so that's
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: always going to be a big deal when you're playing
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: a team like that. Memphis, I believe, is coming in... Actually,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: I think Memphis played yesterday too, didn't they? Both teams
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: are on a back-to-back. Yeah, they played at Sacramento yesterday.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: That's right, because I thought Sacramento would cover. They didn't.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: So Memphis is 3-0, but Memphis hasn't faced that difficult
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: of a schedule yet, although they have two road wins here.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: But they beat that injured old Golden State team, and
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: they beat Utah to open the season. Memphis beat Utah
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: by 10. So is this a zigzag spot? You know,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: Maybe.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: The one really big outlier in this game really is
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: kind of that Utah was terrible at the free throw
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: line the teams both shot fairly similarly but yeah Utah
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: was really bad at the free throw line in that
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: game so maybe they'll have some positive regression there the
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: problem is Memphis dominated them in the rebound department So
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Memphis did kind of legitimately win this game. So that
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: would worry me a little bit about looking towards the
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: zigzag here. But Memphis is having to play a third
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: road game here in, I think, four days, all in
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: different cities. Yeah, so that's not easy to do. It's
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: a fourth game in six days, all in different cities.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: That's not easy to do. And they're having to go
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: into elevation to do it. And they do have an
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: undefeated Portland team on deck. So both teams kind of
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: in pretty ugly spots here. This might be a game,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: I think I would recommend the over if I was
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: going to do anything with this game. Not much of
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: a totals guy, as you know, but with both teams
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: having no rest and being in kind of difficult spots here,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: I think that lends itself more to an over because
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: the defense requires more effort. And if you're tired, I
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: think it shows on the defensive end more than the
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: offensive end, even though your legs can maybe be a
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: little bit tired and maybe your shooting will be a
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: little bit off too. But I think it mostly affects
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: the deep end. So I like the over here. If
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: I was going to do anything with this, 57% of
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on the over, 88% of the cash
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: on the over. It's gone up a little bit from 237.5
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: to 238.5. It's a slightly high NBA total, but I
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: think it is high for a reason. As far as
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: the side, the money is all backing Utah here. 54%
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: of the tickets are on Memphis, 85% of the cash
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: on Utah. Utah's a one, one and a half point
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: favorite here. Again, I don't really want to back Utah
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: off that huge performance against the Lakers yesterday, and it
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: looks like it might be a sandwich spot, but maybe
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: they won't overlook Memphis because they did lose to Memphis
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: to start the season, and The money is on Utah,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: and I think it also just looks too easy to
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: play Memphis, right? Because you've got a pick-them-winner spread here,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: and one of the teams is undefeated, so the public
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: will lean in that direction. It looks maybe a little
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: too easy to get Memphis there, and getting them actually
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: kind of a slight underdog price there. I don't know
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: if you forced me to give you a side. I
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: guess I would say I'd slightly lean towards the Jazz, but...
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: I think the over is the much better look in
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: that game. And then we have Golden State and Denver
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: as the last game. Golden State, you know, not playing well. Again,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: they're old, dude. This Golden State team, they're going to
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: have to rebuild. They're starting to. I mean, they got
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: Yaxel Lendeborg. He was their primary draft pick this year
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: out of Michigan. College champion, Lendeborg. He's starting to step
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: up his role here. Golden State is 0-3, though. But
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: they played two road games. I mean, nobody really expected
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: them to beat the Lakers. Probably they should have beaten
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Memphis at home, but that didn't happen either. And then
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: they lost their last game as well on the road
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: at Phoenix. They're not going to overlook Denver, although this
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: will be a high-elevation game, which may be a little
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: bit difficult. But Denver's coming up... a game where actually
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: they didn't play that well either. Denver started their season
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: against Oklahoma City, and they played a real tough game
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: in Oklahoma City. Denver was hanging around in that game
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: for the majority of it and then fell short in
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: the end and failed to cover too. Then Denver played
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: a pretty poor game in their next game back at home.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: They almost got caught by the Pelicans. That's not a
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: good thing, and Denver was able to escape in overtime.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: So I think after an escape like that, a team
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: usually does bounce back and refocus sometimes, So I think
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Denver is going to be in a focus spot here.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: And when that's the case, I think the better team
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: kind of is the way to look here. We have
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: 63% of tickets, 92% of the cash on Denver. They
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: moved up from five to seven and a half, though.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: So it did cross through what is kind of the
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: most key number in the NBA is the seven. Not
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: because we're scoring touchdowns here, but because Denver teams stop
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: potentially fouling once they're down three possessions, but seven and
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: eight kind of both fall into that category. This game's
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: on NBC sports network, by the way. Um, now I
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: don't know if maybe the line move because of an
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: injury too, though, there is always the possibility of that.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Let me see, uh, on the golden state side. I mean,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: it doesn't really look like it. I mean, Porzingis, I
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: just don't think he's played this year. Porzingis is always
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: listed as out with an illness. It's, it's very, very strange.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Um, But yeah, that's the only thing
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: that I see here. Looks like probably Golden State has
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: most of their other guys back, except I don't believe
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Butler is back. Butler has been injured since last year,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: and I don't think he's close to coming back, so
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I believe. Am I wrong about that? I don't think
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong about that. I don't even think he's listed
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: on their roster right now, to be honest. Let me see.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: Last time I looked at their roster, he wasn't even
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: on the active roster. Or sorry, on the depth chart,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: I mean. He is on the roster. Yeah, he's not
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: in the depth chart right now, so yeah, he's not
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: going to be there. But yeah, Curry, Podzemski is back,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: and Draymond Green is there. But Curry and Green, extremely
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: old men at this point. Yeah, I think I will
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: lean Denver in that one. All right, I'm going to
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: go over to the hydration break. I'll be back in
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: a minute. We'll talk about the WNBA Finals and MLB
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: World Series and NFL Monday Night Football. I will be
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: right back in a second. Thank you. All right. Next
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: up is WNBA here. Yeah. So WNBA, I was unaware,
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: I guess, or maybe I should remember from last year.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: WNBA used to have five game, a five game series
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: for the finals. And now it's seven. Apparently, this is
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: the only series in the WNBA that is seven. I
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: think the semifinals are five. So I thought this would
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: be a winner-take-all. Game five, it is not. It's actually
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: game five of a seven-game series. So whoever wins this
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: game is likely to win the series, but they take
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: a 3-2 lead in the series. This is a 2-2 series.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Golden State was able to win game four in Atlanta
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: and swing this thing back to Golden State, tied 2-2.
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: So these teams do have to travel back to the
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast here, play a West Coast game here. That
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: probably makes it a little bit easier for Golden State
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: because they're a little bit more used to that type
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: of travel than Atlanta is and playing at Pacific Coast time.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: But both teams will have to readjust to the time zone.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a little bit of a wash there. Now,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: Golden State was better in the last game than it
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: looked on the scoreboard. They only won by five, but
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: they were winning this game by a lot throughout most
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: of the game, although Atlanta did make a legitimate comeback late,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: and really the big outlier here was Atlanta had a
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: ton of turnovers, whereas Golden State completely cleaned up. Their
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: turnover issues, they'd had turnover issues for two games in
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: a row. Their two losses, and they completely cleaned that
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: up and played way cleaner in this game. But Golden
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: State was winning by a lot throughout the majority of
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: this game. Because of that, the final score was a
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: little bit misleading. Golden State was better in this game
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: than that makes it look. But... A lot of things
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: about this game. The big regression point is still the turnovers, though,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: where Atlanta, maybe the team to now clean that up
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: coming into this game. Both teams shot terribly in the game.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: So I think maybe the biggest regression point here is
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: the horrible shooting here. This is the third of four
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: games in the series that went under the total, and
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: the total has gone even lower now. So I actually
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: think the over in this game might actually be the
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: best way to play this next game here. Even though
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: a 2-2 series, I almost would never recommend that. Because
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: usually when it's... tied 2-2, you get really intense defense.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Teams just lock it down, you know what I mean?
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: It gets played like a championship game. Those usually are
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: low scoring, but the oddsmakers have caught on to that.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: So you can see this total. Whereas the total in
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: most of the games this series have been between 152
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: and 154, something like that, this total is at 149.5.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers have obviously adjusted this, knowing... that game
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: fives tend to be very low scoring and game sevens
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: do as well. Game fives in a 2-2 series, I
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: should say specifically, tend to be very defensively focused. The
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: team's traveling back to the West Coast. Maybe that will
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: throw their offenses out of rhythm as well a little bit,
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: but I think it's an over-adjustment. I think the biggest
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: regression point from game four, like I said, is that
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: both teams shot horrifically. Although you could have made that
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: argument after game one Game one, it made sense that
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: both teams were going to be off shooting because both
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: teams had had like a week off. So I thought
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: that was going to cool off their offenses big time.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: So I was right about the under in game one.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: But after that, I thought. game two was going to
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: swing and zigzag and be an over after that. And
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: that didn't happen. The only game that went over was
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: game three. So, uh, this series is, uh, three and
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: one to the under, but yeah, I just think this
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: is an over adjustment, even though I don't really want
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: to play the over in a, in a two, two
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: series like this, but I, I do think that the
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: best way to play this game is the over just
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: because I think the line is overreacted to what we've
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: seen here. And, uh, Yeah, it was just such a
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: horrendous shooting game last time out. I don't think that's
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: even replicable. I think both teams should shoot better generally here.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: We have 87% of the tickets and 93% of the
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: cash on the over for what that's worth. So it
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: is a public over, which I don't love either. Golden
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: State has 86% of the tickets on them and only
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: 83% of the cash. So the money is indicating against
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: a public Golden State team here. They're minus one and
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: a half, although... I don't know. I find myself... I
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: go back and forth with the side here because the
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: biggest regression point is the turnovers that Atlanta had in
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: the last game. So they should clean that up. That
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: would be an indicator towards Atlanta here. But I think
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: the traveling back to the West Coast, if anything, I
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: think helps Golden State a little bit. And Golden State
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: was better in that game than it looked on the scoreboard, too.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: At least throughout most of the game, they had a
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: huge lead. So those would be more indicators towards Golden State.
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: The money is saying Atlanta, though. I have real, real
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: difficulty figuring out the side here. I want to lean
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Golden State here. That was like my first instinct here,
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: but I don't know, man. I think the over is
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: the better way to play it, though. All right. And
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: then we have World Series back in action as Milwaukee
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: won each of the first two games at home by
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: one run. Looked like they had game two locked down.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, they scored four runs in the first inning,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: but then they never scored again, and the pitching didn't
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: quite hold up, and they lost brutally 5-4 after they
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: gave up, I think, a couple of runs in the
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: eighth inning, I want to say. And then Yandy Diaz,
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: everybody talking about did he swing or did he not swing,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: which was the final out of that game. I think
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: he did. I mean, you got to call it one
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: way or the other. Some calls are just really close.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: You got to make the call. One way or the other.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: And one team is going to be angry, whichever way
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: you call it. And I think it was the correct call.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: I think he did cross home plate just barely, but
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: I think he did. You could see like the side
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: angle of it looked like he did. So I don't
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: really have a problem with it. Now we go into
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: this game, and I'm looking at the starting pitching here. So, well,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: first of all, I will say these teams are now
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: rested again. These teams are having to go now to Tampa,
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: so another indoor stadium. Every game in the series, indoors.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Some October baseball for you. Both games in roofed stadiums.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: There you go. Or both teams playing roofed stadiums. But
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: both bullpens will be rested. So that's something of note here.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: We have two pretty good bullpens here. Milwaukee's, I think,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: is basically elite. So they're the somewhat better bullpen. But
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: they're both good and they're both rested here. So the
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: bullpens probably would be backable here in this game. When
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: I first looked at this, I'm thinking, well, Tampa's down
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: 2-0 or down 0-2 at home. And they have the
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: big game pitcher on the mound here. Tampa has the
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: way more experienced pitcher on the mound in Freddy Peralta.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: So my first thought was, And it's up against a
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: very inexperienced Robert Gasser on the side of Milwaukee. So
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: my first thought was, yeah. I mean, because experience definitely matters.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: I was thinking Tampa Bay is going to be the
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: right side here, at least in the first five. But
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: then I started digging into it, and the less I
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: started really actually thinking that and liking that. And I
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: don't really actually like that. When you start digging into
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: this a little bit, Gasser... You know, I mean, he
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: did have a pretty good season. You got to give
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: him that. He didn't pitch that much, but 3.87 ERA, 1.19 whip.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: He wasn't as good on the road, though. 4.36 road ERA.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: So his home road splits are negative here. He's pitched
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: all right in the playoffs, though. He's gone nine innings
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: total across two starts in the playoffs, and he's only
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: allowed one run. Had a five-inning shutout against the Dodgers.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: Very unexpected. So that tells me that he can kind
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: of deal with this amount of pressure. Like, he wasn't
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: thrown off by pitching at this big of a stage.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: So that's at least a decent sign for Gasser here.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: And Tampa's never faced him before, except Liam Hicks is
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: over two off him with one strikeout, no walks. So
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Gasser is unfamiliar to... Tampa Bay, so they might actually
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: struggle a little bit to try to hit him because pitchers,
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: when they have the unfamiliarity there, that actually usually gives
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: them a little bit of an edge. So, you know,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: there are some positives there for Gasser, except the fact
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: that he's not good on the road. And then Freddy
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Peralta is pitching for... Tampa Bay, his overall season stats
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: don't look great. 4.42 ERA, 1.33 whip, but he's had
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: a good career. Most of his career was with Milwaukee,
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: by the way, up until this season. So the fact
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: that he gets another crack at his former team, the
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: team that got rid of him, he'll be motivated. There's
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: no doubt about that. So there are things, this game
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: has me in like a, This game gives me whiplash, dude.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: There are so many factors that point in both directions here.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: This game is crazy. I can't figure it out. But yeah,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Peralta should be really motivated, again, to face his former team.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: I think he did face them already this year. But
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: this should be a motivated spot for him because he's
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: facing the team that got rid of him, and now
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: this time it's in the World Series. And Peralta is
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: pretty much a proven... playoff pitcher at this point. He
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: went to the playoffs multiple times with Milwaukee. He did okay.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: His postseason career numbers are decent. I think his ERA
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: is somewhere around three in his career in the postseason,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: so that's not bad. He was with the Mets for
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: most of this year, but since he got traded to Tampa,
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: he's obviously improved. I think it's a motivational thing with him.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: I think playing for the Mets I don't know, or
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: maybe it's pitching coaching. I honestly don't know. Maybe Milwaukee
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: and Tampa both have much better pitching coaching than the
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Mets do. That might be true, but it could be
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: a motivational thing where when the Mets weren't playing while
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Peralta just... went along with that and wasn't playing well,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: but now that he's on a contending team, he pitches better.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? So that all has to
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: be thought about here. Uh, Peralta is better at home.
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: He had a 3.53 ERA at home this year. So
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: he was a better home pitcher. Uh, he was really
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: good in September after he was a little bit shaky
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: prior to that, but he figured things out. He was
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: great in September. Um, only allowed a couple of runs
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: for the whole month and had a sub one ERA.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: And in October, he's made four appearances so far, including
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: a relief appearance. He pitched three times in the Cleveland
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: series in what was the ALCS. And do they give
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: up an MVP of the ALCS?
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if it would have wanted to be,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: it should have been him. If it was, he had
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: two wins and a hold in that series. And he
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: gave up one run across, I don't know, whatever this was,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: 12 innings or whatever. In that series. So Peralta was
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: very very good in that series against Cleveland. Milwaukee is
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: not Cleveland though.
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: Cleveland.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: Even though they had a nice hot stretch of hitting,
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: they're not a good hitting team. Milwaukee is definitely the
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: better offense between them and Cleveland. And the really bad
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: thing for Peralta is the Milwaukee current lineup has really
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: good offensive numbers against him. In 36 career at-bats, they
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: have a. 361 average against him, 1,034 OPS. He does
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: have a good 11-to-2 strikeout walk ratio against them. Usually
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Peralta does actually walk well. Too many guys, that's usually
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: the one issue with him is he walks too many guys.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: And that's the one thing you can knock him for
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs so far is he has seven walks
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: in 16 and two-thirds innings and only 12 strikeouts. So
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: that's not a good strikeout walk ratio. So as well
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: as it looks like he's been pitching in the playoffs here,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: he is kind of wild right now. I'm putting too
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: many guys on base right now. That plus the numbers
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: against Milwaukee, that really, really worries me. So you got
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: that plus Gasser not really being good on the road
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: and maybe with the lack of experience there. I think
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: I would play this game over if I was going
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: to do anything with it probably. That would be my...
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: that's my reaction after like digging into this matchup and
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: looking at everything and, you know, trying to just take
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: a step back and seeing the full picture of this game.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: We have 82% of the tickets, but 92% of the
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: cash on the over the total seven. So it's right
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: on that key number. It's a little bit higher than
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: the six and a half that we're usually seeing in
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: the playoffs here. I think because these pictures get less
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: respect than the pictures that have pitched so far in
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: the series, which makes sense. I mean, it's game three.
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: So the, um, Aces aren't really on the mound at
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: this point, although having Peralta as your number three is
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: not a bad deal for Tampa Bay, you know what
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: I mean? although he's kind of their number two though
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: like Tampa they use Nick Martinez in game one and
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Rasmussen in game two Rasmussen's really their number one guy
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: and I think Peralta is probably their number two guy
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: at this point because of the experience that he has
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: and whatever what his career has looked like but whatever
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: um Tampa's a very small favorite here, around minus 120
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: as well. The money's all coming in on Milwaukee, though.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: 63% of the tickets are on Tampa, 92% of the
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: cash on Milwaukee. You know, I mean, experience is the
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: main reason to disagree with that, and that was where
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: I started, just seeing who the starting pitchers were. My
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: first instinct was, oh, experience matters. Tampa makes sense in
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: this game. But when you dig into all that, and
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: now you see the market read here, I don't know, man.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: Peralta's matchup numbers, they are concerning. His walks in the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: playoffs have been concerning. Gasser has actually been a little
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: bit better than Peralta in the playoffs, I would say,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: based on looking at the number of guys that they're
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: putting on base and whatever. And Gasser, unfamiliar at least
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: to Tampa. Milwaukee plus Milwaukee I think does have the
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here. I think I do actually wind up
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: leaning Milwaukee here. Sounds insane, but I think the over
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: is still the better way to play this one. I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: think it finds a way to get over. I was
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: correct about the over in game two. That was an
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: easy over in game two. I didn't give it out
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: as a play, but that's the way I lean in
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: game two. I'll do it again here, although game two
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: seemed a little bit better for the over because the
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: bullpens weren't rested. There was no time off there. Here,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: there is time off plus travel, and that can kind
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: of affect the offense a little bit. So, yeah, I
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: have to stay off of this game. I haven't had
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: a play in the World Series. I've been treading lightly
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: with baseball. I think I've only given out, what, like
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: four plays? No, maybe it's more than that. I don't know.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: I think we're 500 in the MLB playoffs, though, which,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: you know, I'd like to be above 500, but whatever. Saab,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: what's up? T-Wolves, what are you talking about? T-Wolves, Raptors, what?
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: I don't understand what you're saying right now. Ball is
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: going to be.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: No. What?
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Ball doesn't move the line that much. Ball isn't even
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: their best player. Anthony Edwards is the T-Wolves' best player.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Ball is like their number two... basically now, if you
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: want to call him that. I think if Ball is out,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: that probably only moves the line like one, one and
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: a half, I would say. I don't know what we're
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: talking about here, but I agree with you on the Cavs.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: I can't really figure out what you're saying otherwise there,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: but yes, I agree with Cleveland there. Hold on. So
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: you're saying that Ball might be out? If Ball is out, dude,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: you know my thoughts on that type of thing. I
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: think if a star player goes down, I think the line,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: if anything, the line overreacts. to that, but, um, I
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: don't know, man. I mean, I think Cleveland may still
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: be the slightly, I mean, I don't know Cleveland versus Minnesota.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: I can't tell you which team is better to be honest.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: I think they're both close. So yeah, I guess, you know,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: Cleveland lane three is a little bit more than home court.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: So I guess you're right that that does indicate that
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: somebody might be out for Minnesota here. Um, doesn't look
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: like it though. Ball's not listed as, uh, having any
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: injury designation here. So I don't think that's correct. Um,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: There's no news on them. So, no, I think it's
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: a full lineup there. But I agree with you on Cleveland. And,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: in fact, if it's a full Minnesota lineup, I like
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: it better because there's no overreaction in the line or anything. Oh,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: prior to the Raptors game? Oh, I don't know. I
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: didn't pay too much attention to that game. But they
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: blew out the Raptors, if I remember correctly. But, yeah,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Cavs today, though. All right.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: Let me see. And then we have NFL. NFL will
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: be the last game to talk about here. He was
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: supposed to miss the game against Toronto, but you're saying
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: he didn't, though. I didn't even realize that he was
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: injured at all. I didn't have anything on that game, though.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: The Minnesota-Toronto game, I skipped it completely, but yeah. I mean,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: I talked about it on the show, but yeah, it
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: was not anything that I wanted anything to do with.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: All right. NFL, we have Dallas at Philadelphia, which normally
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: you think, oh, this is an epic NFL game here.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Dallas and Philadelphia with the history behind these two teams. Yeah, no.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: Now we have Dallas, who's the worst defense in the NFL,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: up against Philadelphia, who doesn't have Jalen Hurts because of
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: medical malpractice, essentially, and blood clots. So he's not going to.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: be playing presumably who even knows is, is his career over?
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: I have no idea. The big thing that we kind
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: of want to know here is, is Saquon Barkley coming
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: back for Philadelphia? He might be. Um, I think he's
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: still listed as questionable right now. I have no idea
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: if he's actually going to play or not here. Um,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: I would say I do think he's probably more likely
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: to play than not because they need him back, dude.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: So if he can go, he's going to go. They're
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: saying he's trending towards playing. He's going to go up
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: against a bad Dallas defense. I expect Barkley probably actually
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: will be in there. But of course, Philadelphia is also
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: without their biggest wide receiver weapon, Smith. He's still out.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I have no idea when he's coming back. But you
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: saw my approach to this game back on the NFL
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: show that I did on Saturday night on I'm not
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: changing my opinion on this. I think the perception's gone
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit too far here. Like, Dallas is a
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite on the road here now,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: playing an outdoor game in cool weather, and Philly is
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: still the better defense getting points at home. I mean,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: it's not a strong opinion for me, but I think
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: I would have to lean towards the Eagles in this
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: game getting these points at home. Better defense getting points
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: at home, that's just like, it's kind of a staple
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: of handicapping and especially on a Monday night game like
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: this but the public will be on Dallas the public
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: loves offense they don't like anything that Philadelphia has been
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: doing recently they'll give Dallas a pass for losing to
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: the Packers because the Packers look like a pretty good
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: team and they kind of are I mean Josh Jacobs
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: is back now for them although They lost to Detroit yesterday.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: It was a close game, so nobody's going to downgrade
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: the Packers too much for that game yesterday. And they shouldn't.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was a close game between two pretty
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: good teams. I was correct about Detroit winning, but I
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: think they landed right on the number of three. Hopefully
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: people did not have to lay a three and a
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: half on Detroit there, though. That would have been irritating
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: for sure. But yeah, I don't think Dallas is going
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: to get downgraded that much. And of course, I'm still
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: pissed that I lost that play on Dallas. I thought
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: it was a great bounce back spot for Dallas there. But,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: you know, it does say something about Dallas. It's kind
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: of damning that Dallas, with extra rest, coming off a
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: terrible performance on Thursday night against Tampa, that they couldn't
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: bounce back and play well against Green Bay. I honestly
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: don't know what that was. And Green Bay was not
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: in a good spot. Green Bay had just annihilated the Bears,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: their biggest rival. So that spot looked great to play Dallas.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: And I don't know how Dallas was as bad as
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: they were in that game. Their offense almost didn't even
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: show up in the game. It's insane. I don't know
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: what the deal is. I think Dallas scored right away, too,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: with Javante Williams, who's on my fantasy team. I'm already
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: going to win in fantasy this week anyway, though. I mean,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: I'm up like 40-something points or something, and I have
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: Williams left, and my opponent has Dallas Goddard. I think
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: I'll be all right. Even though Dallas' defense is terrible.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Williams scored right away, if I remember correctly,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: in that game, and then never scored again. Maybe I'm
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: thinking of the Bucs game. Yeah, it might be. I
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: think maybe Williams scored late in the Packers game. I
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: don't remember, but whatever. I think it is damning that
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: Dallas did not play well in that game against the Packers.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: So that would worry me a little bit. I still
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: think that's kind of a big game. It was a
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: primetime game Sunday night. Now Dallas is having to play
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: another primetime game, two primetime games in a row, both
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: on the road. That's not easy, dude. Um, and you know, Dallas, uh,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: look at what they've done in outdoor games so far
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: this year. Cause we know Dallas plays indoor. They had
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: one indoor road game against the Texans that they won.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: There are two road games that they played outdoors, which
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: by the way, were both primetime games. They lost them
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: both to the giants. Although yes, that was with Jackson
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: dart with the giants and to the Packers. So yeah,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Dallas outdoors, uh, Owen too this year. Um, Losing by
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: an average of nine points in those games. And, or, wait,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: did I get that right? Hold on. They lost by
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: 10 and, yes, 10 and eight. Yes, correct. I did
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: get that right. Yeah, so that's what Dallas has done
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: so far. And both of those games happen to be
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: primetime games. But yes, I'm rambling a little bit. But yeah,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: Dallas 0-2 in outdoor road games this year or outdoor
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: games in general. Both of those happen to be primetime.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think there are some, things to have
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: us leaning towards Philadelphia here. And I know Philadelphia has
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: been awful. There's no doubt about that. They've lost four
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: games in a row. Now Hertz is down. They put a,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: they put up a good showing in that game where
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: Hertz wasn't allowed to sleep in the game in London
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: against the Jaguars. So they had him fly knowing that
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: he had blood clots, dude. Again, he should be suing
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: this medical staff or whatever. Like they could have killed
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: them having him fly and, like that knowing he had
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: blood clots to London then telling him not to sleep
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: and then still play an NFL game and they actually
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: did fairly well in that game at least their defense
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: did and again that's what I'm eyeing here right because
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: that was a similar game and that they're playing a
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguar team that has a good offense well Dallas
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: has a good offense but the Eagles their defense showed
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: up and played well in that game and I think
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: this game is going to be kind of more like that,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I don't think Dallas is only going
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: to score 19 here or anything like that. But, yeah,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: that at least tells you that this Philly defense can
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: still compete. That was a decent performance out of their defense.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: They got killed by the Rams statistically in the game
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: before that, but the Rams, they're still good, dude. We
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: saw what the Rams did yesterday, a winner I gave
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: out on the show. Rams are still a contending team,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: so I'm not going to knock Philly that much for
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: that loss. And then Philly lost the game where they
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: returned home from London last week. I mean, yeah. I mean,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: did we really expect them to do that well in
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: that game? I don't think so. I mean, I did
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: say I thought the line was an overreaction to the
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: Hurts injury, but I did wind up on the Panthers in...
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: ESPN's pick them just because we were getting a better
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: number on it. But yeah, Eagles, better defense at home.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Cowboys have not done well on the road and in
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: these primetime games, road outdoors hasn't been good for them.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: So that will have me leaning towards the Eagles here.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we get Barkley back, so that will help the
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: cause a little bit. We do have to worry about
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: Tanner McKee. He is the quarterback now for the Eagles,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: and he has not been good so far. He was
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: awful last week, but... As he gets more games under
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: his belt, maybe he'll become a little bit better. Looks
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: like he might not turn into anything, but again, all
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: we really need is a good defensive performance, a good
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: rushing attack from Philly here. Slow the game down, turn
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: this into a slugfest, and somehow get out of here
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: with a cover. That's what we need here. Obviously, this
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: does not make the card or anything. It doesn't make
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: the cut for me. but I would lean towards the
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: Eagles plus the points here. And the money still agrees
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: with this Dallas, 68% of the tickets on them, 56%
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Philly. Dallas is up to a
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite here. Total is plummeted.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: The total is down to 43 and a half. Some
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: of that maybe injury related again, though, like maybe the
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: 47 was like from a couple of weeks ago or something.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure about that, but the lower the total,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: the better it is to take the underdog. As I
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: always say, it means each point is worth more. So yeah,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Philly plus the points. And that
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: is it, man. My one play today. Wasn't going to
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: have any, but I don't know. As I talked my
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: way through it, I talked myself into it. Miami Heat
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: minus the eight and a half will be my only play. Very,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: very Toad-esque play there. Laying a bunch of points with
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: a winless team. Why wouldn't we do that? We'll lay
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: the points with Miami in the NBA. That's going to
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: be my only play. That'll do it. Learn it on Twitter.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: Learn it on Instagram and on TikTok if they stop
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: putting all of my videos in review. Maybe I'll be
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: back to posting there too. We'll see. Very, very frustrating.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Hate that app. um, listen, uh, to the show here,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: watch the show here, tell everybody about it, you know, like, comment, subscribe,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: let's boost this thing up, man, let's get this thing
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: to take off, that would be amazing if that happened,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: hopefully people like what I'm doing here, give out good information,
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: you know, I think, um, as you can see by
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: my hat, that's what you get on the show, autism,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: you get breakdowns, detailed breakdowns on a majority of games
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: that we have, so, yeah, um, That's how I do it.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: It's what I do. Hopefully, I mean, you can see
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: I am giving out winners on the show as well
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: as my record is on the bottom of the screen
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: every day as well. And I keep that up to date.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: You guys can hold me to that. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: I'm just updating it every day with the plays that
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: I gave out on the prior day. So we're coming
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: off a good weekend. Hopefully, we can continue doing that.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: It's been good over the last couple of weeks for
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: the most part. So let's keep it going. The show's
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: on audio as well. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. So that all
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: helps me out as well. listening over there. I have
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: ukulele covers that are covered in uke, so you can
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: check that out. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if you want to
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: support me over there. That helps me out as well.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: A little bit of uke stuff over there for now.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: I've got to figure out maybe a better approach over there.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: What else do I have to promote? Losercast every Tuesday night,
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: and I believe that is it. So yeah, I appreciate it, guys. Sob.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out again. And edit slides. E-Tit Slotky,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: the tit man, I'll call you that. Thanks for hanging out, guys.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: I'll be back with another show tomorrow morning. And it's Tuesday,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: so I think it's going to be a big NHL
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: card tomorrow. So that's going to do it. Excuse me.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: That's going to do it for now.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: to lose this round alone.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: On Let me.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: Pull you out That bad luck bites hard But it
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: don't get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: Now Hold on.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: Hold on.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: You're still here now.