Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Bring the Thunder | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB | 5/26/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Bring the Thunder | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB | 5/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase, the black coffee.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: On the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a ment three teen Parlette turned
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips like.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: They made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Nine.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Nice now, hold on, hold on me.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: That fits hot, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up?
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: Everybody's towed back with you, toadstool Sports. It is Tuesday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: May twenty sixth, two and zero on the show yesterday
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: we're on a ninety eight forty two and five run
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: now last fifty two days. Just keep it going, man,
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: We're gonna try to keep it going. Yesterday was very selective.
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: We hit on the under first five innings in Yankees
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: Royals look a little bit iffy early because the Yankees
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: put up two runs, I think in the second inning,
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: but they did not score anymore in that In the
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: first five the Royals put up one run and it
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: was two to one. We had under four and a
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: half in the first five, so that was a winner.
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: The full game went under as well. Yankees four to
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: three final I think was what it was, so that
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: went under as well. I told you I thought the
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: nine made no sense in that game. The nine was
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: too high, so.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: I didn't disagree with a full.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: Game under there either. And we won in overtime with
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: the Carolina Hurricanes. But it should have been way easier
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: than that, dude. Carolina dominated that game statistically. They had
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: three times as many shots in the game. It's just
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: ridiculous that they did not have another goal in there.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: But once it went into overtime, Montreal started out overtime
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: looking pretty good, but Carolina took it over again and
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: they wound up getting the.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: Goal to win.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: Obviously, Carolina has been good in overtime though, dude. They've
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: won I think seven overtime games in a row now
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: or something like maybe it's playoff overtime.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: They have a good record in overtime.
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: They're also undefeated and overtime during the regular season this
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: year as well, I believe, so I don't know. They
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: have a really good overtime streak going, which now includes
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: two games in this series. I think it was the
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: right side. I think it should have been easier than
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: it was. I'll take it. We'll move on to today.
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna have two baseball players, they're both totals, and
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: I will have a play in the NBA game. Although
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: it's maybe a little bit different than you might think,
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: and hopefully I'm not gonna fuck it up because the
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: odd Like you know, I usually a'm gonna play like
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: the side in the game, and that's what I was
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: thinking I was going to do. Thinking about a little
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: bit more, I'm doing it differently, something I don't usually do,
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: but hopefully it's gonna be a win. I think they're correlated,
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: so hopefully both of them win. Josh, what's up, Dirty Sock?
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: Kyle Garrett? And what's up everybody?
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: Gerald? Thank you? What's up everybody?
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: The over undn't I didn't really have a feel for
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: that total.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: Under in the hockey game tonight. I don't know.
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: Don't listen to me on hockey totals, man. The one
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: that I did play was one of my losers. I
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: think I only have three playoff losers, but I had
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: to give out the under on that game. In the
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: AVS Wild series. After they had like a fifteen goal game,
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: I was like, you have to play the under in
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: the next game, and we only lost it on an
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: empty net.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: Goal, so I was not happy about that. I don't
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: think it was.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: The wrong play unders. A lot of times we'll get
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: killed by the empty nets.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Though.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Let's get into baseball here.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: It's all evening at baseball today because it is a Tuesday.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: They'll be afternoon baseball tomorrow on getaway Day. Washington at
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is the first game at a weird six to
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: ten pm start time. Cleveland got killed yesterday ten to two.
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: Washington not a very good team, but they can hit.
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: Washington only used one relief pitcher yesterday.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: Cleveland. He was the two. I thought that he was
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: more than that.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: Actually, Cleveland is the better bullpen though, that's one thing
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: they have going for them. I arrange it by Whip.
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: Cleveland has ranked tenth right now. Washington is twenty fourth,
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: pretty bad. Washington has been good offensively though they're number four.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: Arranged by ops Cleveland at nineteenth, so Washington is the
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: better hitting team. It's an interesting pitching matchup here. Kade
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: Cavali is pitching for Washington. He's still pretty young. His
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: numbers don't I mean well, his ERA looks good on
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: the season three point eight six e RA. His whip
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: is not good one point four to three. He hasn't
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: been that good on the road four point three seven,
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: So there are definitely some negatives here. But he's actually
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: pitching really well this month. He's gone over five innings
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: in each of his last three outings. He hasn't allowed
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: more than three on runs in any outing. Actually, going
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: all the way back through his last three starts of
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: the previous month and this month, he is a three
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: point nine one year twenty three to five strikeout walk ratio,
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: fewer than one hit a lout per inning, and the
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: prior to starts. The last two starts of April, he
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: had ten strikeouts in each of them, one against the Braves,
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: So that is pretty interesting. Man.
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: He's pitching well right now.
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: Granted, a lot of these offenses he's faced over that
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: span not great offenses, especially the Mets twice, but Cavally
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: is actually pitching well here over the course of the season.
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is too high, but he's got a
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: high strikeout rate, not too high of a walk rate. Really,
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Cleveland has basically not seen him either. Only Patrick Bailey
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: has ever faced him, one for two of the strikeouts,
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: so I think Cavally might actually pitch well here. Joey
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: Cantillo is pitching for Cleveland. His numbers are kind of
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: similar in a way because his ra looks good three
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: point oh five, one point three to two whip is
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: not as good though he's been basically the same home
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: and away. Pitched well ish last time against Detroit, shut
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: them out for five and two thirds innings, but they
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: haven't been hitting anything recently. He walked three guys. That's
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: a concern. Like you look at see, oh, Cleveland has
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: won his last five games. Yeah, but you look at
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: that a little bit closer. He has a seventeen to
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: fourteen strikeout walk ratio with that man he said, three
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: plus walks in all but one of those starts.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: That is not good.
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: So even though he's been a little bit difficult to hit,
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: that walk number is way too high. Like that's indicative
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: that he has not been pitching as well as it
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: looks like. His strikeout rate on the season is below
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: one per inning. Hit rate is also below one per inning,
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: so that's good, and his walk rate is definitely too
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: high against Washington.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: He's held him to a zero batting average.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: Oh for six, they have six hitters with face them,
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: one strikeout, two walks. I kind of like Washington in
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: the first five here, man, I would not want to
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: deal with their bullpen. But I actually think Cavali is
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: the better of these starting pitchers, and you're getting him
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: in an underdog price here.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: Most likely for the full game. They're definitely an underdog.
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: About minus one thirty four is the price on Cleveland.
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: Cleveland might be a little bit overrated right now, even
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: though you know, I don't think Washington is good, but yeah, Cleveland,
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I mean a lot of times
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: I think they don't deserve to be as heavily favored
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: as they are. Still don't really buy them, Like, I
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: don't think there's as good as the record might look.
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: They're in a very bad division as well. The total
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: in this game is very low at seven and a half,
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: so that's the odds makers kind of indicating they think
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: this will actually kind of be a pitching duel here,
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: So that's kind of indicating towards the under I think
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: there is an argument to be made for it, probably
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: first five. I don't think i'd want to deal with
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: Washington's bullpen in a full game situation, though I'm gonna try.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna try.
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: Einstein was a communist, so I'm definitely not as stupid
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: as Einstein.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: John, what's up man? Yeah, Braves Red Sox.
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: I have a play in that game, and if you
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: saw what I did in the last series, you pretty
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: much know what I'm gonna do in that game. Tampa
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: Bay and Baltimore. Baltimore won yesterday seven, nine to seven.
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay has been very good. I mean, they have
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: the best record in the American League, although I think
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: they're not as good as the Yankees, but they are
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: playing well and they are ahead of the Yankees and standings.
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay's four relief pitchers yesterday, I think is what
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: that was. Baltimore basically used their entire bullpen, though that's
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: not good.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: They use six relief pitchers yesterday.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: This is gonna be a weird game. Neither bullpen is
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: very good right now. Tampa Bay has ranked sixteenth, but
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: the eras in the mid fours. They've been up and
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: down this year, but right now they're more on the
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: down swing. Baltimore nineteenth and bullpen also not very good.
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: Tampa has been able to hit their number six in offense,
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is fifteenth, so they're right in the middle there.
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: And this also doesn't look like a great pitching matchup here.
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: So there are definitely some indicators towards an over for
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: me in this game, Like you got a couple of
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: bullpens that are struggling. It looks like Tampa Bay is
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: going with a bullpen game here, which also is not good.
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: And Baltimore I don't know if you could trust their
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher either. Griffin Jacks is listed as the starter
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: for Tampa Bay. He's got a three point five to
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: four ERA, which is pretty good, one point three to
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: six whip is not as good. He's made a lot
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: of appearances out of the bullpend, though he's been worse
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: on the road four point seven road ERA.
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: He did pitch well last time out.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: He's made a couple of five innings starts recently, and
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: his last one was actually against Baltimore and he went
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: five innings and allowed one on and run on three hits,
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: six strikeouts. I got some problems still though. He's got
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: a twelve seven strike out walk race heure this month,
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: which indicates that is one point six to two ERA
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: here is pretty misleading.
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: In the month of May.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: I don't trust him, and I think Baltimore came into
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: that game not really seen much of him before. He's
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: now got thirty six at bats against him. He has
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: held them to a two fifty average seven to fourteen ops,
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: which is not too bad. Eight strikeouts, four walks, but
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: I think because they kind of refamiliarize themselves with him,
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I think Baltimore might be able
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: to get to him here.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: On the other side, Shane Boz is pitching four at
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: the Orioles.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: Former Tampa Bay Ray Shane boss He's not having a
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: good season either. Four point eight seventy RA one point
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: four or five whip not good.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: He's worse at home as well. Five point six six homye.
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: Ra has pitched well in his last two outings sort
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: of ten strikeouts in thirteen innings is yeah, that's all right,
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: but he's also walked six guys, so that's kind of
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: the problem. But he did go six plus innings in
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: both of them, allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: both of them, so he's pitching okay sort of right now.
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: Both of those starts are on the road, though his
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: last home start was not good against the AA as
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: they beat him up. His most recent start was against Tampa,
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: so both of these pitchers just faced off against these
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: lineups recently. Boz did d well six innings, allowed one
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: run on two hits, although he walked too many guys,
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: and again the walks are his primary issue. Like he's
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: allowed around one hit per inning, which you'd like to
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: see that lower, but that's not too bad. The walk
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: number is way too high. His strikeout rate is also
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: kind of low, even though I think he's kind of
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: a strikeout pitcher, so that's not a good sign that
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: his strikeout stuff looks like it's not there right now.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: Boz against Tampa might actually pitch well, though, like he
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: went out and he did, probably because he was extra
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: motivated though to face the team that let him go.
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: He's got twenty two at bats against some oh ninety
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: one average, allowed only two hits, one of them is
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: a home run from Fiduccia, eight strikeouts, five walks, though
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: that's not good. Four eighty seven ops is still really
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: low though, so Boz does have good matchup numbers here
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: at least, and maybe the motivation will still be there
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: to pitch against his former team, although he already did
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: that once, so that motivation might kind of be gone.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: I think I would lean over here. I mean, I
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: don't like either bullpen. Both pitchers definitely have their question
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: marks here. They could also both pitch well, so that
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: does concern me a little. But eight and a half
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: is the total there. It is bordering on nine. I
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: would try to go over the eight and a half.
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: If you do go over there, get it below that
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: key number of nine, as long as you can pay
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: minus one twenty or less on It is kind of
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: where I do the cutoff, even though I don't really
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: do the math on it totally. Tampa Bay is also
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: a small favorite in that game, which I don't know, man.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: I mean Tampa Bay with a bullpen game here. I
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: don't know if they really deserve to be a favorite
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: like that, but they did lose yesterday. I don't want
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: to try to handicap the side and that one though.
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: It's just I don't really see an angle for it.
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: But I think over it would be my lean in
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: that game. Not too strong though, LA excuse me, Anaheim,
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: I should say at Detroit. These two teams were off yesterday,
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: so there were four teams that didn't play yesterday.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: These are two of them. So the bullpen's arrested. Here.
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: Detroit is returning on from a road trip, but it
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: was only a one series road trip to Baltimore.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Because you know, I usually talk about when a team.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: Returns on from a road trip they can get in
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: this distraction spot where they don't play well. But I
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: don't think that's really going to be the case for
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: Detroit here because they only went to Baltimore, so it's
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: not a long road trip. They won the final game,
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: which ended a long losing streak for Detroit. Detroit had
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: lost eight games in a row or something. And you know,
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: I talk about this when a team ends a losing
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: streak a lot of times that will give them positive
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: momentum moving forward. So I actually think this is more
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: of a positive spot for Detroit than a negative. I mean,
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: you're playing bad baseball like that and you finally break
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: out of the funk, Like I don't think you're going
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: to be overlooking any opponent, you know what I mean.
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: They are playing an Anaheim team that isn't good. Anaheim
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: just swept Texas. That was a big divisional sweep for them.
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: Now they are starting a road trip. Starting a road
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: trip tends to be a focused spot, but they could
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: be in a letdown spot of a big, serious sweep
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: of a Texas team that's better than They are pretty
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: shocked that that happened, really, so I think Detroit actually
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: has the better of the situation here, and probably the
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: better of the matchup as well. Neither bullpen pitched yesterday.
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know why I'm looking at that these teams
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: were off bullpen rankings. Detroit is number twenty one, but
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: they do have a pretty good era. Their era is
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: better than all these teams around them pretty much, so
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: they're not as bad as that makes them sound. Anaheim's
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: bullpen is bad. They're actually dead last right now. Houston
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: still is the worst era, but whip now belongs to
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: Anaheim at least for now.
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: They have a really bad bullpen.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: They're like a bottom two bullpen hitting wise, Anaheim has
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: kind of falling off. They're number twenty one now and
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: Detroit has fallen even further to twenty fifth. So we
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: have a couple of offenses that are struggling here. Anaheim's
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: going with Jack Kohanowitz, who I don't think he's that good.
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: Four point five to five ERA, one point three to
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: four whip not really good. He's been worse on the
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: road pretty considerably by two runs on his ERA five
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: point five to three roadyra. He pitched okay in his
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: last game at home against the A's, but he still
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: walked four guys in that outing. He's got multiple walks
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: in all of his outings this month, seventeen to eleven
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, more than one hit per inning as well,
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: ERA almost seven this month.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: That is obviously not going to cut it.
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: Granted, he did face the Dodgers in there, but still
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: he faced some weak offenses too, like the Mets in Toronto.
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: He was okay against the Mets, he was bad against
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: Toronto overall in the season.
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: Low strikeout rate, walk rate is definitely too high. Hit
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: rate is actually good, lower than one per inning. But
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: he's not very good, dude. He's a junk pitcher and
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: he's not known for being a strikeout guy at all,
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: but he's just not really been very effective throughout his career.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: He will be facing I already forget Detroit, right. I
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: don't know the way my mind works. I just always
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: forget once I dive into a pitcher's numbers. His numbers
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: are not good against Detroit. They only have five hitters
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: who have faced him. They have thirty at bats three
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: thirty three average, eight sixty one OPS four to three
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio, So that is not good. I
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: would lean towards Kohanowitz not pitching well here. Cater Montero
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Detroit. He's actually been pretty good. He's
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: a guy that's been in their bullpen for a few years.
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: They have made him a starter, especially with all their
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: injuries they got going on. He's pitching well three point
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: eight three ERA, one point oh one WHIP. He's been
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: good at home as well, three point four to eight
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: home ERA. My concern with him is really just his
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: reason numbers are not as good as they might look.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: His strike out rate is just really really low. Over
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: this past month, he's been solid with most of his numbers.
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: one of those starts, way fewer than one hit per inning,
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: But he faced a lot of kind of weak offenses
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: in there, and nine to nine strikeout walk ratio really
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: really concerns me. Overall in the season, he's allowed well
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: below one hit per inning, which is good. His walk
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: rate is not great, but it's not horrible, and his
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is low, so he just doesn't strike out
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: a lot of guys.
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: But then he also hold on, let me look at
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: his numbers here.
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: We need to look at his numbers against Anaheim, right,
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: hang on, I just switched that. I forget what my
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: thoughts were to because I definitely need to Detroit in
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: this game. Yeah, he does have good numbers against Anaheim.
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: They only have four hitters who have faced and ten
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: at bats. They have one hit, which is a home
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: run from Nido, two strikeouts, no walks, one hundred average allowed,
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: five hundred oh ps. I like Detroit in this one.
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: Like I said, I think the situation is actually better
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: for them, believe it or not, even though they are
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: returning home. I think Montero has an edge over Cohanowitz.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: Detroit's favored at around minus one thirty five. That's what
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: I would do. I would lay them lie with Detroit
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: if I was gonna play this. They have the better
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: bullpen as well, because the Aneims bullpen is that bad?
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: Even though I know it's rested.
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: I think Detroit does have the edge kind of throughout
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: this game, except they don't have the better offense, but
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: better pitching can counter that.
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: You know, this is close to a play for me.
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: I didn't put it on my card, but I like
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: Detroit in that one.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: All right. We have Cubs at Pittsburgh.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh just beat the Cubs yesterday despite being in a
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: return home spot.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: In the Cubs losing street continues.
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: The Cubs have lost I don't know how many games
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: in a row now nine and this starting pitching matchup
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: does not do the Cubs many favors either, so that
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: is not looking good. Cubs used two relieve pitchers yesterday.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh used two as well. The Cubs do have the
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. They're ranked eighth, Pittsburgh is eighteenth. Hitting wise,
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: both teams have both been fairly good. Cubs eighth, Pittsburgh eleventh.
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: You gotta think the Cubs are gonna come out with
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: motivation though with this huge losing street they've been on,
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: they are a good team.
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: Still.
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: Problem is the Cubs have a lot of starting pitching injuries,
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: and the latest is Edward Cabrera, who was supposed to
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: start this game like this was this is Cabrera's turn
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: of the road station. But I think he has like
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: a blister issue or something, so he's on the injury list.
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: He's not pitching, and they're gonna go with Jordan Wicks,
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: who at least you know, where's these goggles, which I
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: guess might intimidate some batters. Wicks is pitched out of
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: the bullpen. He has not been good though, six point
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: two eighty RA one point seven four whipth not to
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: be confused with Jordan Hicks, who was the hard throwing
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: pitcher the Red Sox got as part of the Devors trade.
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: And I don't even know where the fuck that guy
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: is now. He's in a bullpend somewhere. Uh.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: Wis, though, I think, is worse than Hicks. Wicks.
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: I mean he hasn't allowed Oh wait, I'm looking at
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: last year one of my Wicks hasn't even pitched this year.
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: What am I even looking at? So that's another thing.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't even know we might dude, this is
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: like totally up in the air with what the hell
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: is gonna happen with the Cubs here. Wicks was a
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: starter in twenty twenty four for ten starts. His numbers
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: were bad. His numbers were pretty much bad throughout his career.
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: I'm not expecting much out of him here. He might
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: not even go that deep into the game, but maybe
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: he'll do okay enough to get through whatever innings he pitches.
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh has not really seen much of him. They're one
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: for four with a single from Reynolds. There's one strikeout
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: of no walks in there. But I would much prefer
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: to be on Braxton Ashcraft here for the Pirates, who
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: was having a really good season two point eight to
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: nine ERA, one point zero three whip. Ashcraft has not
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: been as good at home though, three point eight six
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: homey RA, so his home road splits not very good.
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: But he's been pretty good this month. Man really good.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: He had one kind of questionable start in there against Philadelphia,
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: but still had a really good strikeout walk ratio there
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: over the course of the month, way below one hittle
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: out per inning twenty six to four strike out walk
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: ratio in twenty eight to third inning, so the strike
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: out rates not quite one per inning one point nine
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: to one ERA this month. He is pitching well, dude,
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: over the course of the season, pretty good numbers overall,
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: high strikeout rate over one per inning, walk rate is
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: low ish, low hit rate as well. Ashcraft is solid, dude,
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: and I think he's under the radar right now. His
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: numbers against the Cubs are more on the mediocre side.
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: I would say forty nine at bats two sixty five average,
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: seven h two ops, sixteen to two strike out walk
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: ratio is good. But obviously you have a pitcher that's
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: pitching quite well right now going up against what looks
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: like a mess of a situation, a bullpen game, even
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: though the Cubs bullpen is good, so they could in
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: theory come out and actually have a good pitching performance here.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: But Pittsburgh does hit well at home. I'm gonna lean
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh here. I don't really want to fade the Cubs necessarily.
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: You know, they have to be like super hungry for
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: a win right now, and the Cubs are. I think
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: there's still a good team and they're an underdog here,
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: which they should be, but maybe they're a little bit
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: too much of an underdog. Like the stock is not
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: gonna get that much lower on the Cubs, man, So
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: you might want to find a spot to try to
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: play the Cubs, but I think this is not that spot.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: Though I think Pittsburgh does win this game. They're at
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: around minus one thirty or so. I would probably lean
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: moneyline Pittsburgh, but maybe the price is a little bit
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: off there.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: Atlanta and Boston Cubs. I don't know what's going on
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: with the Cubs.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: Man, they have too many injuries, dude, Cad Horton, Matthew Boyd.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: They're starting pitching is awful right now, just because those
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: injuries have come into play.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: Atlanta and Boston.
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: You saw what I did the last time these two
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: teams faced off in Atlanta. Atlanta was not a good
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: hitting team at home, and these teams were playing a
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: lot of under games. Red Socks, on the other hand,
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: they're also not good at home. For some reason, they
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: don't hit well at home, even though Fenway as a
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: hitter friendly park. I don't know if it's just because
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: it's been cool out recently, but by the way, it
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: is again today, although the temperature did go up a
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: little bit yesterday. Actually it's gonna be eighty today, so
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: it will be warmer here today.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: But I don't know. It's been rainy. It's been weird
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: weather here. As you can tell, I am going with
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: the under in this game.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: Hang on, Yeah, we're gonna go back to what worked.
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: We had two unders in the previous series between these
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: two and they both hit. These teams have a lot
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: of trends towards the under. I know the Red Sox
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: offense has been hitting a bit better recently, but they're
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: gonna have to go up against some good pitching here man.
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: We have rested bullpends. You know, I talk about this.
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: These two teams didn't play yesterday, and when that happens,
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: I think it cools off the hitting a little bit
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: when the hitters are off for a day, and it
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: helps the bullpens because the bullpens are resting.
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: And we're also looking at two good bullpens here.
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox, I know, they did play some more
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: over games recently, but they're still they have some strong
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: trends towards the unders here man. Still that last series,
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: like I said, two of those games went under.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: We won on the under and both of them.
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: Red Sox should be in a bounce back spot as
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: far as the side is concerned. They just got swept
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: at home by Minnesota and they're staying at home, you got.
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: I think they're at least gonna show up with some
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: effort here. Atlanta is coming off a couple losses to Washington, though,
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: and they're starting a road trip, so I don't think
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's gonna be unfocused here.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: Although they did beat the Red Sox in that previous series.
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure two games to one, I want to say,
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: is what it was. But whatever, we're looking at the
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: total here. Atlanta, well, both bullpen's arrested. Atlanta is number
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: one in bullpen whip. They're one of the best bullpen
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: eras as well. Not exactly at the top, but really good.
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: Red Sox actually have a slightly better bullpen era the
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: ranked sixth in whips. We have two good bullpens here
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: that are both rested. Yes, I know Atlanta is a
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: very good offense as well.
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: They're number two.
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: Red Sox not so much, although they've been a little
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: bit better recently, but they've still been losing because they're
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: pitching hasn't been as good. It's always one thing with
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox, man, it's either their pitching is good
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: and they're hitting can't do shit, or now they're hitting
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: as good and oh they're pitching.
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: Is just getting blown up. Fuck you man. Red Sox
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: are twenty fourth then hitting.
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: This game is on TBS, so you can watch it
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: on a national TV if you want. Probably because it's TBS,
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: they'll have Atlanta biased commentators. Spencer Strider is getting the
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: start for Atlanta. He's pitching well.
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: He's come back from injury. He looks pretty good.
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: Three ERA one point one four whip not as good
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: on the road, but three point four to five ERA
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: is still pretty good.
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: He's made four starts, the Braves have won all of them.
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: One of them was a one hit shutout against the Dodgers.
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: That tells you that he is pitching pretty well right now.
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: His old on the issue is the walks. His walk
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: number is ridiculous, twelve walks in twenty one innings. He
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: needs to somehow do something about that. But he's allowed
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: very few hits. He's allowing almost like one to hit
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: every two winnings. His strike out rate is way over
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: one per inning. He did face the Red Sox already
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: in that other series, and he went five and a third,
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: give up one and run three walks. It was actually
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: not his best outing, but it was good enough. We
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: got the under in that one as well. That's again
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: where we're going here. I think he can pitch well
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: again here. He's mostly in good form. All of the
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: walks are definitely an issue, but he's so good otherwise
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: he just gets through it anyway, and the Red Sox
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: have not hit him well in twenty.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: Six at bats.
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: It's not that many at bats, although basically the whole
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: team has faced him two thirty one average, allowed, six
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: eighteen ops, six strikeouts, three walks. Again, the walks kind
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: of coming into play there, but his numbers overall are
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: good against the Red Sox.
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: Ron Jr.
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: Suarez is pitching for the Red Sox here. He's having
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: a good season as well, two point four e RA,
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: one point one whip. He's been not as good at home,
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: but a two point seven to seven Homira is still good.
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: So I know the home road splits are against both
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: of these pitchers here, but they still have good numbers
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: either way. Suarez, I don't know what happened in his
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: last start against Kansas City where he didn't go a
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: full five innings there, and in fact that's happened two
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: of his last three outings. But I think in one
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: of them he got injured, so I'm not gonna put
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: much weight into that. He bounced back and he shut
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: out his former team Philadelphia for five and a third.
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: He's not going deep into some of these games, but
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: he is still getting the job done and he's working
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: his way back in. I think the Red Socks are
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: kind of ramping his pitch count back up a little
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: bit after he got hurt. He did walk three guys
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: in his last outing against Kansas City, but he.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Held them to wonner and run. Not horrible there. His
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: numbers overall in the season they're solid. I mean, he
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: doesn't allow a lot of hits.
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is okay, and his strikeout rate is
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: also okay. But of course he's gonna have to go
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: up against a team that has seen it's on of them,
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: which that was a concern that I had when I'm
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: like assessing this, I was thinking Red Sox are gonna
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: be up against it here because Suarez was on Philly,
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: so the Braves.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: Have seen it's on him.
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they have one hundred and ninety seven at bats
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: against him, but Suarez has actually done well two thirty
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: nine average against them, six fifty three ops forty six strikeouts,
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: fifteen walks.
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: Not too great but not horrible. You know that ratio.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're overall, Suarez has done fairly well against them.
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: So I think what we're looking at is two pretty
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: good pitchers here right now. They both have decent matchup numbers.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: Who've got two good bullpens rested bullpens teams that have
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: been trending more towards the under recently, especially when they
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: played each other. And of course I'm not talking about
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: the percentages because everything is not working.
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: It's like whatever data providers are out there for this stuff,
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: it's like they're basically like saying fuck you now. So
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: pregames fucked. Wager talk was fine up until the last
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: two days. Now they're fucked. So we got dude, we're
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: flying blind here. I don't even know what the market
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: is saying here, but we were going under eight in
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: this game. It was it even money too, so that
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: wasn't too bad. But whatever, you know, I think if
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: it's above seven and a half, I mean, I think
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: that's fairly good. And yeah, I don't have a whole
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: lot else to say about this. It looks like you
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: can find an eight and a half as well, juiced
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: to the under right. Now, let me see, I want
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: to see what the best number is there. Maybe sticking
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: to the eight is fine though, because between eight and
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: eight and a half it's not a key number difference there.
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: Seven is the key number.
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you can find under eight and a half actually
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: at a decent price though, at minus one thirteen. If
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: you do want that, that's it the crown if you
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: want to call it that either way, I mean, if
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: you want me to update and call it that, I
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: think that's a fine option as well. It looks like
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: the books really just have eight and a half out
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: there now, which does worry me that the number did
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: tick up a little bit, but that's basically what the
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: number is now.
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: We could track it as that if you want.
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: But either way, you have to pay a little bit
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: more for that number, and maybe it's not worth it
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: for that half a run there because it's not on
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: the y a key number. But yeah, eight and a
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: half in minus one fifteen, we better get the win man,
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: That's all I gotta say. Braves as a Braves faner
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: saying they can't hit Suarez, well, yeah, the numbers look
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: pretty good for Suarez against the Braves, like I think
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: he needs to do okay here and hopefully we can
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: get this done. Yes, all right, so that's that one
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: play there. Okay, I lost my train of thought there.
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: I think I was gonna say one other thing and
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: I can't remember what it was now, uh, because I
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: was looking up the Oh.
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: The odd numbers are key in baseball, if if you
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: haven't watched me before, because obviously you need a run
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: to break a tip. So the key numbers are seven
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: to nine to eleven in baseball because if you're at three, three, four, four, whatever,
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: you obviously need one more run for a team to
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: win that game. So that's why it's more often that
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: games land on the odds than the evens. All right,
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: Miami and Toronto. Toronto lost eight to two yesterday to Miami,
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: so could be a bounced back spot. But Toronto's been
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: pretty questionable this year.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: Miami not a horrible team really.
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: They did use four relief pitchers yesterday, though Toronto used
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: four as well. Miami has been a good bullpend this year,
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: the ranked fourth year in these rankings.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Toronto's twelfth.
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: Toronto not too bad offensively, Toronto's really been bad at
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: twenty eighth and Miami is sixteenth, so Miami has actually
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: been the better offense, and Miami at least here has
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: a starting pitcher going up against a bullpend game. Sandy
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: al Contra is pitching for Miami. He's been okay. I mean, again,
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: as I always point out, he is not his cy
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: young self anymore, like not even close. But he is
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: pitching decent for Era one point two eight whip. You'd
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: like to see that whip be better. Really, he's been
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: a little bit worse on the road. Four point five
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: roadyra gave up six runs last time out, but it
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: was against the Braves and he didn't walk anybody, so
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: that doesn't concern me that much. This month is the
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: Rays high in over six this month. But his strike
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio is decent seventeen to five. But he's
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: allowed way too many hits twenty nine hits and twenty
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: two and a third innings. That's not good. Over the
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: course of the season, he's been a little bit less
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: hittable than that. He's a little bit below one hit
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: per inning. His walk rate is kind of too high
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: on the course of the season. His strike gout rate
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: is way down. Like I said, he's having to figure
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: out how to pitch with like lower velocity now against Toronto.
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: He has okay numbers against him in his career thirty
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: three at bats to seventy three average, seven eighteen ops
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: four to one strike out walk ratio. I just don't
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: know if he's fully trustworthy, although I probably prefer him
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: over a bullpen game for Toronto. They're going with Brandon
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: Fisher as like an opener here. He's got a two
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: point seven to three ERA one point oh one whip,
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: but it's not even worth digging into that much on
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: him because it looks like he's gonna go one inning
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: like he did. The last time he was an opener
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: was Thursday, and he's made two appearances since then. So
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: he's basically a bullpen arm and they have him go
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: into the opener slot sometimes, and that's what he's doing here.
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: Highly likely he's gonna go.
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: One inning and then they're gonna turn it over to
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: whoever else is in their bullpen. The last time they
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: did that, it was a full bullpen game, but they
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: actually they actually did well. They actually allowed no runs
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: in that game to the Yankees, And I thought that
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: game was gonna be an over game. It was a
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: bullpen game against Carlos Redona. I don't know what happened
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: in that game, but yeah, Toronto's bullpen game was actually
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: effective there. That's not to say it will be again
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: here though. I'm not so sure that even though their
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: bullpen has some okay pitchers in it, but they did
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: use some of them yesterday.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: I think I probably prefer Miami. I mean, Toronto's at
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: like minus one forty like with a bullpen game.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: Really.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: I mean again, maybe I'm too old school and I
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: don't like these bullpen games, but I don't really think
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: they should be favored by that much. With a bullpen
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: game going, the total is lower than you would think
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: at eight. So I don't know, do with that information
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: what you want, But I don't have a good read
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: on the game, but I would slightly lean to Miami.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: I would prefer having the actual starting pitcher behind me,
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: plus the better bullpend so and the better hitting team
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: as well. So yeah, getting them as an underdog, you know,
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati at the Mets. This is gonna be a little
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: bit difficult to figure out because the Mets have not
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: listed a starter unless they did since I started this, No,
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: they have not. I still have an opinion on this game,
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: but it's a little bit difficult to figure out. Not
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: knowing who the Mets are gonna start the we can
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: kind of guess what the Mets are gonna do here.
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: Mets use three relief pitchers. Yesterday Cincinnati used four. I
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: forget who even won that game. It was probably not
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: the Mets though. No, the Mets have lost four games
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: in a row now. They lost seven to two to
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: the Reds yesterday. The Reds do not have a good
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: bullpen though. The Reds are twenty ninth in bullpen, very bad,
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: although you could make the argument they're at least better
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: than Houston though, who's ranked ahead of them right now
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: and Whip because their erera is better than Houston.
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: So yeah, they're probably better than Houston.
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: But this is still a bad bullpen, dude, like a
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: bottom three bullpen.
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: We're talking about the Mets.
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: Yah, the Mets are ninth and bullpen the Mets are
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: clearly the better bullpen here. Offensively, the Mets have been awful.
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: They've been an offensive offense and not in.
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: A good way.
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: They're still dead last in offense and Cincinnati's fourteenth. So
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati has the better hitting and Cincinnati is going with
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: Chase Burns.
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm a fan.
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: I've made a lot of plays on Burns this season.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: Point eight three e RA, point nine to five whip
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: really good stuff. He's better on the road as well,
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: one point four to six road e RA away from
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: Great American Ballpark, which is more hit or friendly. The
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: Reds have won five of his last six games, including
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: the last three. One of those we did have them,
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: I think in the first five maybe against Philadelphia that
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: was a win.
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: He's been really good this month.
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: He's allowed two runs to total and five innings or
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: five starts this month and allowed fewer than one hit
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: every two winnings with one strike up per inning and
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: not a high walk rate either. And over the course
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: of the season solid numbers more than one strike up
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: per inning, well below one hit per inning, pretty low
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: walk rate. This is good stuff out of Burns. And
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: the Mets have also never seen him before, so that's
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: another advantage to Burns here. So it looks pretty good
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: for Burns here. The Mets, what are they doing? I
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: believe they're gonna be going with David p Peterson in
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: some fashion year because if you look back five games ago,
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: David Peterson was heavily involved in that game. So I
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: think it's somewhat safe to assume that Peterson is either
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: going to start this.
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: Game or they're gonna put an opener in front of him.
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: So I believe they were putting an opener in front
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: of Peterson after he had this bad start to finish
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: April against Washington. I think they had him come in
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: after an opener, and he actually did start pitching better
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: once they did that. I believe they moved him back
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: to a starting role against Washington and he actually did okay.
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: So Peterson has been better since they made that shift.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: But if you watch my show, you know I don't
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: like Peterson. I don't trust him. He puts way too
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: many guys on base. He's got a five point ZHO
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: three era one point five to five whip that's bad.
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: Although this month is the race two point five with
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: a twenty to six strikeout walk ratio fewer than one
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: hit per ending as well, you can't really argue with that.
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's pretty solid, including outings in coourse field
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: at Arizona against the Yankees and at Washington. I think
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: Washington hits better on the road. He walked three guys
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: a piece in his last two outings. That is a
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: little bit concerning. But he is definitely pitching way better
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: right now, and his numbers against the Reds are not awful,
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: although they're not good either. In sixty six at bats
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: two seventy three average, seven sixty seven ops, fifteen to
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: seven strike out walk ratio. Again, it's a lot of
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: walks from Peterson. That is one of his major issues.
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: I like Cincinnati first five here, man, I think Burn's
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: over Peterson or some sort of bullpen mix here. I
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: think Burns clearly has the edge there, but I don't
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: like Cincinnati's bullpen at all. Cincinnati's a slight favored here.
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: You're probably paying a little bit more of a price
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: for it if you go first five with them, though,
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: But that's I think what I would do. I would
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: go Cincinnati first five money line is probably what I
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: would do in that game. Yeah, but I don't know, Man, Peterson,
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: it is possibly goes out there and pitches well. It's
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: not the worst matchup for him, and he is in
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: better four right now.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: Minnesota and the White Sox.
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: I looked at this starting pitching matchup, and I was
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: thinking this might be like a first five under situation here,
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: because I like both these starting pitchers to some degree,
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: and these bullpens are both bad, so I would look
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: to be fading the bullpens or just not including them
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: in an under.
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: Minnesota only is one guy out of their bullpen yesterday.
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: It was Woods Richardson, who I guess is out of
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: the starting rotation, now replaced by Zebbi Zebi Map. I
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: think Zebbi did fairly well again yesterday, if I'm not mistaken,
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: although I think he lost the game. It was a
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: low scoring game. Though White Sox use three relieved pitchers yesterday.
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: Minnesota their better relievers are available, at least after what
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: they did yesterday only using Woods Richardson, but these are
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: still not trustworthy bullpens. Minnesota's ranked twenty seventh, the White
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: Sox twenty fifth.
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: Not good.
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: The offenses have been fairly good, White Sox number eight
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: and Minnesota number twelve, so these teams hit, especially later
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: in the game of the Like I said, yesterday was
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: low scoring. It was a three to one White Sox
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: win yesterday, which you know, I believe I did have
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: a lean towards first five under in that game, I think,
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: if I'm not mistaken, although I think I kind of
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: liked Minnesota first five more, which I think was was
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: not a winner.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: So I apologize for that.
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: I was getting excited about Zebbi man his uh, his
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: numbers look pretty good so far. Minnesota's going with Joe
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: Ryan here. Joe Ryan, I mean, obviously he's an ace.
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: He's Minnesota's ace, and he's.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: Been that for a while. Three point oh two ERA
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: point nine to seven whip.
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: He's been worse on the road though, three point nine
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: to five roadra still not bad though, and he's pitching
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: well this month. He's allowed three total runs this month
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: in basically three starts because he exited his other start
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: right away with an injury. Twenty two to five strike
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio way below one hit per inning, but
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: we get it. Ryan's really good. He's allowed way below
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: one hit per ending this year. Walk rate is fairly low.
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: Strike got ray high over one per inning against the
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: White Sox, though he has not done that well. They
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: only have four hitters have ever even actually faced him,
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: but they've hit him well four to twenty three average
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: thirteen forty nine ops, one.
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: To two strike up walk ratio.
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: So I was looking at this and I'm like, well,
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: I guess under is kind of off the table for
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: me here, even though you don't want to put too
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: much weight into this small of a sample. But Ryan
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: looks like he does not do too well against the
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: White Sox, so that would concern me enough to have
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: me not on the under here. Sean Burke is pitching
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: for the White Sox. He was really good at the
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: beginning of the season up through pretty recently, but pretty
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: recently he is pitching worse. His overall numbers are still
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: pretty good though, four point eighty RA and one point
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: two to one WHIP. He's not as good at home
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: though four point seventy three home ye Ray. He's gone
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: three starts in a row with the White Sox, have
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: lost all three, though, and he hasn't made it five
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: innings in any of them, so he is not pitching
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: well right now. Fourteen to six strike out walk ratio
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: over that span not that good either, is ERA this
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: month is five point five to nine, although twenty two
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: to seven strike out walk ratio nineteen to third innings
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: is not that bad. But that's including his first start
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: of the month, where he shut out San Diego for
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: six innings on the road. That's a week offense in
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: a very pitcher friendly ballpark, and he's allowed more than
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: one hit per inning this month. Season wide, his numbers
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: are better than that though below one hit per inning.
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: Walk rate is okay, and the strike out rate is
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: a little bit low though, but current form not good.
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: So you have to weigh that. You have to put
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: that into perspective.
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: Minnesota only is nine at bats against him, but they
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: have had the best of him in those nine at bats.
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: They have a four to forty four batting average fifteen
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: to fifty six ops. Buxton has a home run off him.
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: So Burke in very short order, has not pitched well
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: against Minnesota. So you know, I mean, the oddsmakers are
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: telling you they think this is actually gonna be a
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: pitching duel, which is what I kind of thought when
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: I first looked at the starting pitching matchup.
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: But I just showed you the numbers.
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: Again, it is a small sample, so you don't want
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: to weigh that too heavily, and the oddsmakers are not
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: throwing money away by putting this thing at seven and
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: a half. But given what these bullpens look like, and
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: given those matchup numbers, you know, I would not want
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: to be on an under in this game.
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: I'll tell you that.
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: If you do go under, I think you still have
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: to do it first five innings. But I don't want
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: to do that either. As you can tell, I might
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: even slightly lean over in the full game here, and
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: then you get the bad bullpens into the mix there,
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: this thing could definitely go go go over the seven
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: and a half dude, and both teams are pretty capable offensively,
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: so that would probably kind of be my lean there.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is a small favorite here with Joe Ryan. I mean,
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: it looks almost too obvious to play Joe Ryan though
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: as a small like basically a pickham Price there. So
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: maybe there's a little bit of value grabbing the White
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: Sox as a home dog there. But Ryan is in
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: the way better for him over Burke right now, so
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: I don't think I would do that In Minnesota. Their
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: bullpen rest kind of makes their bullpen at least a
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: little bit less bad here, So I don't know. Man,
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: It's a tough game to deal with, but I think
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: over it would probably be what I would do in
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: that game if I had to play it, but I don't,
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: I do not want to.
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: Yankees at Kansas City.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: We had this game correct yesterday with the first five
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: under with my only baseball play. The full game went
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: under as well, four to three win for the Yankees.
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: This matchup, though, looks like this is a This is
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: just a huge mismatch in favor of the Yankees here, Like,
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: I don't think there's any way the Yankees lose this game,
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: although they did use five relief pitchers yesterday, but it
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: was somewhat light usage, but it did include their clothes
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: or bednar.
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: Kansas City's bullpen is the worst of the.
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: Two bullpens, though they used two relief pitchers so they
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: are a little bit more rested. But the Yankees are
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: ranked thirteenth right now. Their era is a little bit
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: better than that though in the bullpen and Kansas City
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: twenty six, Yankees clearly have the better bullpen. The Yankees
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: are ranked third offensively, although their offensive numbers do drop
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: pretty significantly on the road. As we saw again yesterday,
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: Kansas City is twentieth in offense. They have not been
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: hitting well, so the Yankees have the edge there as well.
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: And the Yankees have Cam Schlittner on them out who
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: might be the best pitcher in the American League, so
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: I would not want to go against him here. He's
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: got a one point five VR point eight six whip
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: yeah yeah, uh one point four roadr in more innings pitch,
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: he's been pretty much untouchable on the road.
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: Also pitching well this month.
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't even think we really have to
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: go into it, but he's allowed four runs in twenty
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: four and a third innings this entire month over the
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: course of the season, high strike got rate over one
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: per inning, very low walk rate, and a low hit
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: rate as well. All of his numbers are good against
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. Twenty two at bats against them, one thirty
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: six average, allowed three forty five ops six to two
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio, So he also does well against
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. I think that was mostly the one start
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: he made against him earlier this year in Yankee Stadium.
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: He shut them out for six innings or no, he
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: allowed no earned runs, he allowed one unearned run, sorry
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: my mistake, but he went six innings, allowed no earned runs,
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: three hits, six strikeouts, two walks, So he pitched well there.
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: He's going up against Bailey Falter, who I don't even
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: know why the Royals went and got this guy.
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: Dude. They made a trade for him, I think near
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: the trade deadline last year he was on Pittsburgh. He
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: is not doing well on nine point eight two ERA
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: two point eighty six whip horrendous. Although it's a small
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: sample size.
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: But he has a nineteen point twenty nine ERA at
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: home in two home starts, one of which he only
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: went a third of an inning. Maybe that was a
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: relief appearance, I don't know, but he got lit up
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: in that one by Minnesota. He didn't do very well
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: against the Red Sox either. I think that was a
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: bullpen appearance made. I don't even know, dude, how many
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: starts is he made here? One of these appearances was
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: a start, and it's not good that I.
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: Can't even tell you which one it was.
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: It might have been the first one where you went
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: three innies against the Braves. I have no clue. He's
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: been awful though. He's a lot more than one more
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: than two hits per inning, you gotta be kidding me,
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: and almost one walk per inning on top of that
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: six' six strike up Walk.
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: Razio this is, bad really.
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: Bad and The yankees also hit him pretty well in
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: fifty two at, bats three sixty five batting, average one
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: forty five, ohps twelve to four strike out walk. Ratio
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: that's the only good number that he has there is
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: the strike up walk. Ratio yankees obviously have a huge
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: mismatch in this, game like basically all.
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: Around they're gonna win the.
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: Game the problem is they're a minus two hundred favorite. Here,
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: like you, know they're over. Priced they're The. Yankees they
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: Got schlitzler on the. Mound you know you're not getting
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: any value if you play The yankees. Here if you
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: do play them on the money, LINE i, MEAN i
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: guess you could tie them into a money line parlay
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: with you know, WHAT i don't.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: Do these parlays because the books screw. You they don't
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: give you good enough.
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: Odds but a money line parlay today that IS i
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: think actually pretty good Is. Yankees because AGAIN i just
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: showed you all their matchup edges. Here tie The yankees
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: into a money line parlay with The thunder in THE.
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: NBA i think that's WHAT i would, do BECAUSE i
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: think the thunder are also gonna win their, Game SO
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: i would probably do that for that makes sense to
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: me for a money line parlay where you're getting teams
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: that are priced like that and getting those numbers.
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: DOWN i still don't.
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: Want to do that, though BUT i think IF i
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: was gonna play this, GAME i would actually lay the
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: run line with The, yankees because you want everything to
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: come into play, right LIKE i. WOULD i think that's
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: better than like Going yankees team total over because they
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: don't score as much on the. Road, really you want
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: that advantage Of schlittler shutting Down Kansas, city, right and
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: you want.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: The advantage of The yankees being able to hit Against Kansas. City.
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: YEAH i, MEAN i think the only way THAT i
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: could really play this is to lay the minus one
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: and a half runs with The, yankees and then you
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: do get nine at bats with, Them AND i actually
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: consider putting it on my card. Too like WHEN i
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: see a huge mismatch like, THAT i usually want to
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: try to get. INVOLVED i just you, KNOW i just
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: can't do it with a road favorite that's that. HEAVY
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: i Know i've done it once or twice this, year
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: BUT i don't want to do. It one of THEM
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: i know is a loss with The, dodgers SO i
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: don't really want to do. It the public will definitely
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: be on The yankees, here So i'm gonna stay. Away
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: this next game will be my last play in baseball,
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: here AND i do have AN nba play as, well
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: but it's probably not exactly what you, think ALTHOUGH i
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: mentioned it at the beginning of the. Show all, Right
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: i'll give you this next, play which Is Cardinals, brewers
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: and we're gonna go under in this game as, well under.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: EIGHT i saw it about minus one eighteen out. There the
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: total in this game is a little bit lower than
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: in the other game THAT i talked. ABOUT i like
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: the under, here AND i know you're gonna, say, Well
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: Saint louis their bullpen's pretty. Bad yeah it, is But
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: i'm gonna counter that by first of, all The brewers
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: bullpen is. Good but second of, all if you look
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: at the, Usage Saint louis hasn't used.
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: Any of their bullpen arms for two.
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: Days So i'm actually just gonna go full game on
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: this one and hope that whatever the setup is, here
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: that one team is not gonna have a massive lead
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: over the, other and that you're gonna just be able
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: to get decent bullpen arms in with The cardinals, here
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: So i'm gonna go full game with it. Here milwaukee
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: only is one guy out of the bullpen. Yesterday their
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: bullpen is in okay shape here as. WELL i Know
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: Saint louis is not a good. Bullpen they' ranked twenty,
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: third but they're not one of those worst bullpens that
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: has AN era over, five so they're not, horrible and in,
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: fact they're actually somewhat significantly better than most of the
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: teams ranked below them or all of, them.
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: So that's not. Horrible and The brewers are up to.
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: Eleven The brewers bullpen has been very good as of,
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: late so that's good for. This then obviously we're gonna
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: look at the starting pitching in a. Minute hitting, Wise brewers.
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: Have been doing. Better they're at.
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: Seventeenth Saint louis has been, solid they're. Thirteenth BUT i
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: still think the pitching can kind of counter that two
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: offenses THAT i kind of consider to be a little bit.
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: Mediocre michael McGreevy is pitching For Saint. Louis he's been, good,
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: dude and people just don't pay attention to. Him and,
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: Really i'm gonna be honest, man he should be on
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: The Red. Sox As i've said, before his name gets
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: shouted out In tessi in the Old Red sox rally
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: song that The Dropkick murphy's, covered AND i covered their
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: cover on ukulelea a couple of. TIMES i usually do
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: it right around when the season of The Red sox.
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: Opens but, YEAH i don't even remember what the lyrics,
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: are but it has something something to do with McGreevy in.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: It McGreevy led the charge it to the, box storm the,
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: gates but the game on.
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: Hold, yeah he should be up here In, boston, man
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: this irishman. Here but he's pitched well on the season
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: two point four E ra point nine to nine whip good,
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: stuff and he's been not as good on the, road
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: but still a two point eight SIX roadra can't complain about.
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: That he did get hit around in his last outing Against.
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh he gave up ten hits and he only had one.
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: STRIKEOUT i know that is, worrisome but the rest of
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: his starts to this month have been. Good he's only
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: allot four runs total this, month so the prior three
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: starts his team won all of them and they included
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: a shutout against The dodgers for six innings and a
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: one run outing at The Horrible A's. Stadium SO i
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: think this is more of a kind of a blip
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: Against pittsburgh. THERE i think McGreevey should bounce back a little.
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: Bit he's not a strike up, pitcher so you, know
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: that's one. THING i like guys that strike. GUYS i
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: like guys that blow guys. Away, man he doesn't do,
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: that but he doesn't allow a lot of, walks doesn't
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: allow a lot of hits.
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: Good numbers.
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: Overall and the other THING i do like is That
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: milwaukee has never faced, him so sometimes these young pitchers
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: when they do HAVE i don't want to say he has,
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: decent but he's been able to pitch. Effectively that can
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: be an advantage against a lineup that's never faced you.
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: Before SO i think McGreevey should pitch well.
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: Here AND i think the heavy lifting for this under
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: is actually gonna be on the other side With Kyle.
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: Harrison another speaking of That Red Sox dever's, trade another
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: part of, it The Red sox don't have.
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: Any of those guys.
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: Left tibbs is wrecking it In TRIPLE a for The,
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: dodgers and they got rid of him after getting him
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: in that. Trade Kyle harrison was the other piece in that,
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: trade and he's pitching really well for The. Brewers, Dude
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: brewers they got rid of Like Corman burns a couple
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: of years. Ago they don't even they don't even need.
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: Him they don't Need Freddy baralta. EITHER i, mean look
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: at this pitching that they got going on With, Mizierowski,
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: harrison a couple of their other young. Guys nobody even
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: knows who the fuck these guys, are and they're all pitching.
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: Well harrison as.
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: A one point seven to SEVEN era one point seven
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: whip H he's been basically the same home and. Away
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: it doesn't really. Matter he's coming off a really good
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: outing against The, cubs WHERE i guess the worry there would.
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: Be that was like one of his best outings of his.
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: Career he struck out, eleven had one, walk and shut
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: out to hit them for seven innings At.
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: Wrigley really.
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: Excellent but the last time he pitched that well Against,
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: pittsburgh double digit, strikeouts over one hundred pitches in that,
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: game which he didn't do against The.
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: Cubs he was absolutely.
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: Fine in the next, outing he pitched well again Against
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: washington And pittsburgh has won six games in a row
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: that he's or excuse, Me milwaukee has won six games.
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: In a row that he.
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: Started and he's pitching, well, Dude and that, included LIKE i,
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: said a start against The, cubs a start Against, pittsburgh
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: to start At, washington although they do hit better on the,
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: road start against The, yankees or he did struggle a little,
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: bit but he was competitive enough that they still won the.
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: Game and Then San, diego, yeah they. Whatever harrison's pitching,
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: well And Saint louis has never faced him, before so
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: that's another.
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: Edge you.
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: KNOW i consider him to be a, young very talented
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: pitcher and he's got unfamiliarity, here.
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: SO i like that aspect of this as.
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: Well he's got way over one strike up per, inning
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: below one hit per. Inning walk rate's not too bad.
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: Either on the course of the. Season harrison's very, good.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: Dude and the better of these two pitchers as.
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: Well so WHILE i Think milwaukee does have some edges,
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: here they have the better starting. PITCHER i think it's
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: gonna be more of a pitching. Duel milwaukee does have
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: a bullpen edge, here SO i Think milwaukee is more
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: likely to win this. Game that's why they're favored at
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: around minus one eighty oddsmakers know That harrison's, solid, man
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: BUT i prefer the. Under that's where we're going in that.
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: GAME i would not disagree with the first five under.
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: Either they where you might even be able to find
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: that at four and a half and Avoid Saint louis's.
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: Bullpen But i'm gonna factor them in.
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: And we'll see what.
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: Happens knowing, me the first five is gonna go, under
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: and Then Saint louis's bullpen is gonna do something, stupid hopefully,
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: not BECAUSE i just showed you they're a very rested.
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: Bullpen SO i do like that.
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: Under seven and a half at plus, money all, RIGHT
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: i don't disagree with. THAT i mean seven is the
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: more key, numbers SO i Would WHAT i would say
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: IS i have as many books available as, possible, though
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: so you can line, shop all. Right next game up
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: Is houston And, Texas and What i'm gonna do Is
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: i'm gonna take a break And i'm gonna throw a
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: drop in here that is related to.
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: This Houston texas.
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: GAME i haven't been able to do this one for a.
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: While so AND i do kind of like one of
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: the sides in this game. Too so it's not on my,
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: car BUT i will talk about. IT i will be right.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: Back, YEAH i should do the.
• 57:51
  Speaker 5: Opposite if every instinct you have is, wrong then the
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: opposite would have to be. Right, YES i will do the.
• 58:02
  Speaker 5: OPPOSITE i used to sit here and do. NOTHING i
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: regret it for the rest of the. Day so NOW
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: i will do the, opposite AND i will do.
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: Something all.
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: Right so if you haven't figured out the reason WHY
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: i played That George costanza, drop you'll probably figure it
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: out in a. Second houston And. Texas houston won this game. Yet,
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah houston won this game. YESTERDAY i don't know how
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: this keeps, happening, dude nine to. NOTHING i Think texas
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: is in a bounced back spot. Here you're talking About
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: texas the better team at home off of getting shut
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: out embarrassingly at. HOME i think you got to start
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: looking Towards texas in this, game like right away when
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: you start handicapping. This houston has a bad. Bullpen they
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: only use two guys out of the. Bullpen, yah their
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: bullpen is actually pitching better, recently BUT i don't buy.
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: It this bullpen. Sucks texas has a way better.
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: Bullpen they used two relief pitchers yesterday but didn't really
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: use their better relievers or anything because it was a.
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: Blowout texas has one of the best bullpen er rays
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: and the rank seventh AND. Whip houston still debatably the worst.
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: Bullpen they have the worst bullpen er, ray but they're
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: now twenty eighth IN, whip but barely.
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: SO i mean they're still really.
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: Bad houston is the better offense their rank, Fifth texas
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: is twenty, second and we know At texas usually you
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: get a lot of low scoring games.
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: HERE i was pretty surprised Like.
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: Houston and went with E my yesterday he actually pitched
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: well are you kidding? Me And texas Had Kumar. ROCKER
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: i thought he set up better in that. Game that
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: wasn't the. Case, Today houston is going With George. Costanza
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: Jason alexander is pitching For. Houston he has not been
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: good so, FAR i believe it or. Not he was
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: actually not.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: That bad as a starter last.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: Year they had to put him in the rotation with
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: all their injuries last, year and he actually did. Okay this,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: year he hasn't been very. Good he's mostly come out
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: of the. BULLPEN i don't think he's made that many
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: appearances this year. Though seven point THREE, era one point seven.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: Whip that's not gonna get the job. Done he's been
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: a little bit better on the, road for whatever that's.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: Worth five point six y Three Roady. Ray and, again
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: this Is. Texas it's easier to pitch in the. Stadium
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: he's coming off a six inning.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: Shutout Against, minnesota.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: Though which was on the. Road that was easily his best.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: Appearance he's only made three appearances so. Far that was,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: good so he's you could argue he's in good form right.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: NOW i, mean he got shelled by The dodgers in
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: the previous, game but it's The. DODGERS i, mean The
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: dodgers are in, another you, know echelon as far as
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: what their offense is compared To texas. Is, overall, Though
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: alexander's numbers is still not. GOOD i mean he's got
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: one more than one hit allowed per, inning high walk,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: rate and won every two.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: Winnings strike out rad is.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: FINE i still don't Trust alexander and his numbers Against
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: texas are not. Great in fourteen at. BATS i know
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: it's a very small. Sample five, strikeouts no, walks two
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: eighty six average, allowed eight fifty seven. Ops not. GREAT i,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: mean the thing is he did pitch well in his last.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: Outing he is capable of pitching well, here so that's my.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: Concern and again last year he was decent for a
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: like a fairly long stretch as a starter For houston last.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: Year SO i don't, know that's kind of my.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: CONCERN i Guess Jack lighter is the younger and more
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: talented pitcher and he is going For texas. Here he
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: hasn't been that good, though four point six ONE, era
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: one point three to nine, whip but he is better
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: at home in a pitcher friendly stadium. Here that all makes.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: Sense three point four to eighty ra here at. Home
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: didn't pitch great last time, out but it was in Course,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: field and he pitched In houston the game before then
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: and did well against. Them he went seven, innings allowed
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: one run on three, hits six, strikeouts three. Walks wasn't,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: great but he pitched well in that. Outing his problem
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: is the, walks. DUDE i looking at this, month he's
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: got more than one strike up per inning twenty seven
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: and twenty three to a third, innings nineteen hits. Loud
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: that's all good except eleven. Walks that's a huge. Problem
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: he's allowed multiple walks in his last three. Outings his
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: season wide numbers are pretty much the, same over one
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: strike up per, inning below one hit per, inning and
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: way too many.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: Walks he's got to figure that out the.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: Wall if he got the walks under, control he'd be
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 4: a pretty strong, pitcher. Dude his numbers are good Against houston,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: though AS i just showed, you he pitched well against them.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: Recently but overall he has good numbers against him in
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: sixty at bats one eighty three, average five ninety, ops fifteen,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: strikeouts but nine. Walks the walks are, concerned BUT i
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: would prefer going with. LIGHTER i think he's the better
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher. Here texas is in a bounced back, Spot
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: texas has the better. Bullpen texas is around minus one thirty.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: Here that's the WAY i would play this. GAME i
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: would go money Line texas. Here that would be my
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: lean in that. GAME i consider putting that one on my.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: Card SO i think the ones that are not on
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: my card my strongest opinions not on my card Are
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: texas money?
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: Line what was the other ONE i? MENTIONED i can't remember, Now,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: Oh cincinnati first, FIVE i would say is one of.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: Them And yankees run, LINE i guess is kind of in,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: there and THEN i like.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: ONE i like a. TOTAL i like an over in
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: one of these remaining.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: Games So i'm gonna mention that Shortly philadelphia At San diego's.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: Next this is a picture from the. Ballpark this is
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: one WHERE i am not gonna recommend an. OVER i
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 4: thought that there was a chance yesterday because the pitchers
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: yesterday had bad matchup, numbers but that game went way
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: Under Randy vesquez was supposed to pitch that game yesterday
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: and he did, not so there was a late pitching
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: switch For San diego and they switched To Griffin, canning
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: who is not. Good SO i WOULD i would have
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 4: handicapped that handicapped that. Game, DIFFERENTLY i think that gave
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: more of an edge To, philly And philly won the
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: game three to. Nothing But canning wasn't really that bad
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: in the. Game vesquez for some reason got moved to today's.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 4: GAME i don't know, why But i'm gonna mention that
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 4: in a Minute philadelphia used three relief pitchers. Yesterday San
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: diego used. Two San diego's better relievers are available, today
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: and they have a really good. Bullpen San diego's ranked,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: fifth but they do have one of the best. Bullpens
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: they have the best. Closer you, know we know. This
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: philadelphia has been a decent. Bullpen they're four. Teenth, offensively
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: both teams have. Struggled San diego twenty, Ninth philadelphia twenty.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: Sixth not really good hitting on either side of The.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia both teams really have more talent in their offense
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: than what that would, suggest Especially. Philadelphia so we'll see
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: what happens with. That philadelphia will be going With Aaron.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: Nola AND i always laugh because his name Is, nola
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: and he's actually From, louisiana but he's not From New.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: Orleans he's From Baton. ROUGE i don't Know Batone. ROUGE
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: i have no.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: Idea.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: Man nola has not had a good season though he
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: is struggling to come back from his surgery or. WHATEVER
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: i think it Was Tommy, john whatever the. Hell he
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 4: had six point FOUR era one point.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: Five to six whip not good this.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 4: Month you, know if you look at his, numbers sixteen
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: to five strike up walk razier this. Month that looks pretty,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 4: good but he has a six point FIVE, vra so you, think,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: well was he?
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: Unlucky not, really because he's just been way too hit a.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 4: Ble he's allowed way over one hit per inning here
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: this month twenty five hits in nineteen to third. Innings
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: that's not good. Enough over the course of the, season
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: fifty one to eighteen strike out walk raceio does look,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: good but again he's allowed way more than one hit per,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: innings so his hit ability is the. Problem it looks
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: like his command numbers are. Fine, somehow he's got to
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: stop leaving the ball over the plate man and then
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: he could be good. Again he did start pitching well
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: again towards the end of last, season but this season
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: he has not figured it. Out this might be a
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: matchup where maybe he starts turning it, around, though because
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 4: he has good numbers Against San diego in his.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: Career this is a pitcher friendly.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 4: Ballpark he's got seventy nine at bats against, them one
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: sixty five, average, allowed four to thirteen oh, ps twenty
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: eight to two strike out walk. Ratio those are really good.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: Numbers the problem, is, like can you trust? HIM i
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: have no. Idea you, know his last start Against, cincinnati
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: he was again too, hittable even though it was not
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: a horrible.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: Start BUT i don't know with.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: Him i'm, waiting waiting to find, out and his home
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: road splits are not very. Significant he will be going
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: up Against Randy, vasquez who got pushed back from yesterday's.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: Start he's got a two point nine to SIX era
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: one point one to nine, whip.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: So he has the way better pitching.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: Numbers BUT i probably lean Towards philadelphia here, man which
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: it's gonna look misleading for a whole bunch of. Reasons
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 4: so phil, like basically the line of this GAME i
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: think is gonna be you're probably gonna. HAVE i Think
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: San diego is like a slight favorite in this, game
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: but you're gonna look at it and think it looks
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: so easy to Take San diego right because they have
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: the way better. RECORD i Know philadelphia did win, yesterday
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: AND i talked about this yesterday. Too philadelphia is better
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: than their record, looks And San diego is not as
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: good as their record.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: Looks so that's what's going on.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: Here so when the oddsmakers put up a line that
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: kind of tells you this is gonna be a very competitive.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: Game he you, know listen to what they're, saying AND
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: i think they're kind of telling you that you should
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: look Towards philadelphia a little. Bit and in this, GAME
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: i think they're gonna Favor San diego Because vasquez has
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: the better, numbers and people gonna see that and lean that.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: Way but looking at the matchup, numbers the matchup numbers
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: would actually have me looking Towards philly. Here, vazquez LIKE i,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: said does have a two point nine to SIX era
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: one point one to NINE, wit but he's not been
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: as good at home four point two home Y, ra
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: so he's not in aso the Good he's not in
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: the good side of his home road.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: Splits.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: Here didn't pitch well last time out against The, dodgers
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: although it was The, dodgers when he had three walks no.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: Strikeouts his walk number is pretty, concerning, dude or the
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: lack of. Strikeouts he's got eleven, strikeouts five, walks and
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: twenty one innings this month.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: With twenty one hits.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: Allowed, yeah he's putting too many guys on base right,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: now and that's been the problem with him throughout his.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: Career as the, walks he hasn't allowed that many hits this.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: Year walk rate is a little bit. High it's better
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: than what it usually is from, him though his strike
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: out rate is really not that. High BUT i just
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: don't consider him to be that trustworthy. Man AND i
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: know the advanced analytics guys really don't like. Him they're
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: saying he's gonna regress in a major, way and they
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: might be. Right you, know As i'm looking at his,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 4: NUMBERS i look at like whip, strikeouts, walks BUT i
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: can see some negatives getting mixed in, there you know
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: WHAT i. Mean and his matchup numbers Gets filly are not.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: Good in twenty at. BATS i know it's not a
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: lot of at, bats but they have a five hundred
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: average against, them thirteen ninety five ops one to two
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: strike out walk. RATIO i think WHAT i would do
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: is Go philadelphia first five innings. HERE i would not
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: want to try to Fade San diego's, bullpen, really BUT
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: i Think. Nola you, know you're not gonna be able
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: to tell based on the team's records and based on
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: the eras that these pictures, have BUT i Think nola
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 4: has a hidden edge. Here his matchup numbers are just way.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: Better so but he's got to come back into form
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: though that's the. PROBLEM i do Trust nola in his current.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: Form LIKE i try to weigh, everything you know WHAT i.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: Mean San diego is at minus one twenty or so
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: here you'll Get philadelphia probably is a slight underdog in
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: the first five as, well but that would be my
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: lean Phlodel via first, five WHICH i think is also.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: What my lean was, yesterday If i'm not.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: Mistaken ALTHOUGH i THINK i also said over yesterday in
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: that game and that was not Right seattle at The.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: A'S i was correct about this game going over yesterday.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: Barely it was a ten and a half total and
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: it landed. Eleven it went to eleven man The a's.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: Lost seattle blew them out nine to. Two seattle is
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 4: the better, team AS i kept. SAYING i did also
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: lean To seattle in that game as aside, yesterday so
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: that was correct as. Well bullpen, Wise seattle has the
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: better of the two. Bullpens seattle didn't use anybody out
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen Because Luis castillo they let.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: Him only go four.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: Innings he did, okay and Then Bryce miller came in
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: and finished the game and finished the last five innings
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: of the. Game so and that Gave miller the win
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: in the. Game so, interesting But seattle saved their whole
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 4: bullpen by doing that and got the. Win The a's
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: only used two guys out of the. Bullpen but this
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: is not a Great a's. Bullpen they ranked twenty. Second
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 4: seattle's ranked, seventeenth but they have one of the best bullpen,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: erays So seattle definitely has a bullpen edge. Here hitting,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: wise The a's are. Better The a's are, Seventh seattle is,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: eighteenth so The a's do.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: Have the better offense starting.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: PITCHING i just look at this on the surface AND
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: i lean To seattle with the starting pitching, Here plus
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: their bullpen is, better SO i Like seattle. Generally in this,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: Game Emerson hancock is pitching For. Seattle he's been, good
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: he's got a three point SEVEN era one point six.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: Whip he's been worse on the road, Though so here's
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: where the concerns start popping. Up three point six y
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: five road ray and you know he's having to go
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: pitch in The a's.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: Stadium.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: Now it is a hitter friendly stadium for, Sure hancock's
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 4: been decent this, month although he walked three guys in
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: his last down against The White. Sox he struggled in
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: both of his starts kind of against The White sox this,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: month but his other two starts were both, good but
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: are both at, home and they were Against San diego
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: And Kansas, city so maybe not a huge takeaway.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: There but he's allowed fewer.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: Than one hit per inning this month over one strike
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 4: up er ending a pretty low walk rate. Too similar
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: numbers for the season over one strike up per inning
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: below one hit per, inning.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: Walk rate pretty low as. Well he's been good.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: Overall he faced The a's at home back In april
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: and it was just an okay start from. Him three
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: on runs allowed on seven hits in five, innings three,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: strikeouts no. Walks he actually allowed three home runs in that.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 4: Outing and this is WHERE i started having more concerns
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 4: because you're Asking hancock to now pitch in this a.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: Stadium he gave up three home runs to them In
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: seattle's pitcher friendly. Stadium that's not a good sign for
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: what might happen to him in This a's. Stadium, man
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: and he's a fly ball pitcher as. Well more so.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 4: On that is not what you want in this. Stadium
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 4: SO i have my concerns With handcock. Here and then
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: the other question you have to answer is did he
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: pitch in the stadium last?
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: Year the answer is.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 4: Yes In may he actually did pretty well. Though he
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: went six, innings allowed two runs on four, hits only
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: two strikeouts and two. Walks so he did actually pitch
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: well in this stadium last. Year BUT i still have
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 4: my concerns, man and his numbers against The a's in
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: general are not very. GOOD a thirty nine at bats
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: to eighty two batting, average allowed one thy forty one
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: ohps six' four strike out.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: Walk RATIO so i.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: Was leaning seattle in, this GAME but i see these
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: NUMBERS and i can't really get on board.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: WITH that i got some concerns.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: With that Luis seven reno is pitching For the a's
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: and if we know one thing, about him it's that
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: he pitches horribly in this stadium and he pitches way
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: better on.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: The road last year was he had extreme home. Road splits.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: Last year he was really bad in this stadium, at
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: home and he was excellent on.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: The road for the most part. This season that's kind of.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: Happening, again overall he's got a four point two to
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: three ray and a pretty bad one point four to.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: Four whip, but AGAIN like, i said he's worse in
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: this stadium five point five to five HOME y ra
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: compared to three point three eight on. The road not
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: quite as dramatic as, last year but still definitely something
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: you have. To consider he's coming out of a really
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: good outing on, the road, of Course, against anaheim held
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 4: them to two runs and, seven innings had, Ten STRIKEOUTS
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: but i don't trust. Him man his last start, at
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: home he got pretty much Tagged By. San francisco they
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 4: hit him around and they're not even a, good offense
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 4: so that's not a. Good sign overall, this season if
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: you were the one hit, per inning a lot. Is
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: good but he's allowed a ton, of walks more than
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: one walk every. Two winnings his strikeout rate, is good
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: more than one, per inning but the walks are. Just
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: insane it's kind of weird that his home road splits are, that,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: significant though because if you're walking a ton, of guys
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: usually that affects you in, both places like it affects
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: you anywhere that. You PITCH but i guess it kind
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: of makes sense in, a way because it just means
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: you're putting more guys, on base and if guys are
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: more like go to score in, this stadium you know
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: that's still what's gonna Happen. Against seattle he does have
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: good matchup, numbers though fifty six, at bats twenty, one,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 4: strike got, seven walks one seventy nine average allowed five h.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: Two ops So severn reno has not been bad in.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: This matchup particularly he has Not faced seattle. THIS year
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: i don't believe so the home road splits do say
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: to Fade sever, RENO here i think there are more
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 4: reasons to look towards an over than an, Under here
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: THAT'S what i. Will say But, LIKE hancock i worry
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: about his fly ball nature and his bad numbers Against
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: the a's is lesser. Road Numbers severn reno usually not good,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: at HOME so i think there are more indicatives towards than.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 4: Over here the totals at nine and a half juice to,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: the under so it's lower than it. Was yesterday so
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: the oddsmakers are kind of telling you they're respecting these
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: pictures more than the.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: Pictures YESTERDAY but i.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 4: DON'T know i still see kind of more reasons to
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: go over than under in.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: This GAME but i don't, love.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: IT man i think there are just a lot of conflicting,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: factors here and you Got the a's favored at about minus.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: ONE FIFTEEN i i don't.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: THINK so i don't.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: SEE that I think i would, prefer handcock EVEN though
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: i Know seven reno has the better of the. Matchup
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: numbers but my default is Just seven reno, at home
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: fade his.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: Ass like that's pretty MUCH what. I Do and seattle
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: has the.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 4: BETTER bullpen i think if you do try To go,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: a's here you gotta go first five. INNING only i
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: would not want to deal with the, bullpen THERE but i.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: Would leave seattle. Slightly there Arizona At.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: San Francisco san francisco lost yesterday six to Two. TO
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 4: arizona I think arizona is the better.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: Team generally arizona used two relief.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: Pitchers Yesterday san francisco used Three, Bullpen wise giants do
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen AT least era wise the rank FIFTEENTH,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: in whip but their ray is better by almost. A
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: run arizona's still ranked THIRD in whip and their eray
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: is dropping to the point where it's almost. Below four there, You,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: Go ARIZONA so i might, have to, you know Start
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: considering arizona's bullpen to at least, be DECENT although i
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: Think the giants have at least a slight.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: Bullpen.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: Edge here arizona is the, better offense though. Pretty significantly they're.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 4: Number Ten san francisco is. Twenty seventh. NOT good E
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: rod is Pitching for arizona Here Ed. Eduardo rodriguez his
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: numbers are surprisingly good this season two point two FOUR,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: e r one point one TO, nine wip but when
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: you kind of start looking at the, other metrics, YOU
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: know i don't think it's.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: That good he's not as good.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 4: On the road three point four to six roadyrral that
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: this is a week offense he'll be facing here in
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: a pitcher. Friendly stadium he's been really good this month
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: with a one POINT three era twenty one to seven
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio, is fine nineteen hits in twenty.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: Seven to two thirds in and he's that's.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 4: All good but besides Shutting, out pittsburgh which is, pretty
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: impressive he Faced the mets and Then the. Rockies TWICE
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 4: so i am not that, you know what's The world
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 4: i'm out of what's The world. I'm looking i'm not
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: that impressed by those. Opponents there, you know he did
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: pitch in. Course field we'll give him credit, for that
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: although that was his worst of. Those starts i'm not
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 4: on The e rod train. RIGHT now i think he's
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: not as good as his numbers look. Right now over
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: the course of, the season he has a pretty low.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate his hit rate, is low so, that's good
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: but his walk rate is, also high so overall his
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: numbers are not.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: That good he is not the pitcher that he once.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: Was either he's dealt with a bunch.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: Of, injuries obviously his stuff is a lot like it's.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: Dramatically lessened let's say you can tell by the fact
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: that his strikeout rate is.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: Really low Numbers Against san francisco.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: Are decent in seventy one of bats two thirty nine
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 4: average a lot is, pretty good but at seven to
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: seventy eight ops a little, bit high it's a. Little
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: concerning he's a lot three home runs here and eleven
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 4: walks compared to. Eighteen strikeouts that is way too. Many
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: walks so it's not exactly the best matchup for. Him
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: Here san francisco is Going With, tyler malay who is
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: not having a good season. For them six POINT, one
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: era one point five to. Seven whip he's been way
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: better at, home though three point six to TWO home
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: era in this pitcher, friendly stadium so you got to
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: weigh that.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: Into account he is definitely better.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 4: At home he was bad in his last two out
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: and one of them was Against, the a's one of
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: them Was.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: Against arizona they were both on.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: The road those are hitter, friendly stadiums and he did
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: have a twelve to one strike out walk, Ratio there
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 4: so his numbers, command wise his numbers actually look really good,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 4: this month twenty five to four strike out. Walk racio
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: so then how does he have a six point four
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: TO three era This month like he's getting, Unlucky right well,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 4: maybe not because he's allowed twenty seven hits and twenty,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 4: one innings so he's getting, hit around so that's. Not
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: good he might be better than his numbers make, him,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: look though but overall in, the season his numbers are definitely.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 4: Not great his strikeout rates good over one, per inning
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 4: but he's still been very hittable over one hit per
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: inning and is a walk rate is, also high and
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 4: he's allowed, ten runs so his overall numbers are pretty Bad.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: Against arizona it doesn't get any better and fit before
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: at bats three fifty, two average allowed nine to fifty.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 4: Two ohps none of that. Is good, eleven strikeouts, four
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 4: walks nothing really great. THERE either i don't trust. HIM
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 4: man i don't KNOW if i Fully trust erod. EITHER
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: here i think there are definitely arguments to be made
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: for an over in. THIS game i just think that
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: both starters have some. Issues here erod not as good
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: as his. Numbers Look san francisco used some of their relief.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: PITCHERS yesterday i don't fully Trust either. BULLPEND here i
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: don't love going Over In san. FRANCISCO'S ballpark i know
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: we had an under that went awry, recently THERE which
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 4: i think. Was MISLEADING but I think i would lean
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: over in. This game the totals. At eight do what
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: you want with. That information arizona is a. Slight favorite
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: it's basically a pick. The winner i'd probably Lean to
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: arizona as. Well Here e rod is still the better
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: of the two pitchers in, my opinion and has like
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: the somewhat better matchup.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: Numbers Here. In arizona the bullpen's are at.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: Least pretty they're, you know there's not that much of a,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: gap THERE so I think arizona somewhat makes sense in
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: that game. As well colorado At the dodgers is the.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: Last game this Is a this pitching matchup is uh. Oh.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: Boy Uh the dodgers won yesterday five, to THREE so
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: i guess laying the run line actually was the way
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: to go in.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 3: That game even though it. Was Close the dodgers were able.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 4: To actually know they didn't win by the two and
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 4: a half runs because they were like a minus three.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: UNDER favorite i think you needed them to win.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 4: By two and, a half so they did not do
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: that unless you found like a two when. IT pushed
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: I thought dodgers over team total made some sense in,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: that GAME but i don't think they.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: Got there they only scored.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: Five, runs dodgers they're a, good offense but they actually
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: tend to be really good.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: On the road and they're at.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: Home.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 4: Here uh dodgers use four relief, pitchers yesterday so that's
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: not that, good either but their bullpen.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: Is good colorado used four, as well and their bullpen
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: is not.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 4: That good dodgers' bullpen is, ranked second and they have
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 4: the BEST bullpend era really. Really good dodgers are a
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: top bullpend. This, year man it's kind, of crazy given
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: that they were not that good at all. Last year
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 4: colorado was. Ranked twentieth so there's a pretty big bullpen
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: edge For. La, here offensively there's also a big edge
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: la is. Number One the rockies are where are they at?
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: Twenty two they're not as good on the, road either
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: so a lot of edges To. La Here kyle frieland
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: is getting the start For, the, ROCKIES unless i mean
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 4: it's possible they put an opener in front of. Him
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: again but my assumption is he's probably gonna actually start, the.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: Game because more often, THAN not i think they do just.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 4: Start him he might not be the, worst starter but
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: he's certainly. Not good he's got a seven POINT four
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: era one point seven whip that's, not.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 3: Good but of course it's The cores field effect to.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 4: Some extent he is at least better somewhat on the
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: road six point. Five road ray hasn't pitched well at all,
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: this month though eighteen to nine strike up. Walk ratio
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 4: he's allowed almost two hits. Per inning rockies have lost
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: six starts in a row of his era over eleven.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: This month that is some.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: Bad stuff his strike gout rate is okay, this year
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: walk rate is a little, bit bad but his hit rate.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: Is crazy he's allowed way too, many hits so. Not
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: good numbers Against the dodgers are not very good either
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 4: in two hundred and fourteen, at bats so they're very familiar.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: With them two to eighty batting, average allowed eight to,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 4: sixteen ops forty nine to sixteen strike out walk ratio
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: actually not a terrible, ratio there but the rest of
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: his numbers are. Not GOOD so I think freeland definitely
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 4: could give it, up Here and colorado's bullpen not gonna.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: HELP matters i DON'T think la is going to be
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 4: Going with Eric, lower lower very very weird Case manber
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 4: lower was pretty good last Year in toronto's. Starting rotation
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: toronto had him this year and he was absolutely Terrible
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: with toronto to the point where they designated him. For
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: assignment AND then i Guess the dodgers, were like, fuck
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 4: it let's. SIGN him i, don't, know mam and he's starting.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: THIS game i don't know who normally would have started
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 4: this game For. The dodgers because they seem to have
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 4: a decent amount of starters HERO although I Think blake
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: snell got, hurt again like immediately after he. CAME back
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 4: I think glasnow is hurt, Again TOO so i guess
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: it does Make sense dodgers needed some. Arms here we'll
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: see if they can turn. Him around but, you know
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: the signs are mostly. Not good he's got a six
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: point six' ninety. Ra this year all of This was
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: with toronto one point four.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 3: To nine whip.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: That's not good he was, worse at home but Of
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: course with toronto seven Point two homey ray was not pitching.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: Well at all really over the course. Of the season
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 4: his strikeout, rate was low hit rate over, one per
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: inning walk, rate was high a lot. Eleven home runs
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 4: this is all really. Really bad stuff now will he?
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: Pitch better here. That's the thing like a lot of
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 4: times a, pitcher like this when they get let go
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 4: and then another team, picks them up they want, to
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 4: do well right because they just, got you know, a
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: new contract and they want to prove that they're. Worth
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 4: that money so a lot of times they do come
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 4: out and they pitch well with, their new team and
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: it's almost like a, reset you know a. Change of
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 4: environment forget about what you did, earlier, this Year right
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: you're You're In the, national, league now baby you can
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: you know.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: It's a.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: Reset pitch better so he might actually, do OKAY here
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: but i think most of the. Signs are negative he
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: didn't pitch. Well this year His numbers against colorad are also,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: not very good and twenty four at bats three point
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: thirty three batting average allowed at seven TO seventy seven
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: ops seven to one strike out walk, ratio is good
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: but those numbers are. NOT that good i think the
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: best way to go with this game is still. To
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: Go over though dodgers are a huge favorite at like,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: MINUS two thirty i don't even really know if laur
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 4: should be favored that heavily under, like any CIRCUMSTANCE even
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 4: though I think the dodgers are clearly the, way better
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: team but usually you're paying a little bit of a
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 4: tax for them with lower on the mound even. You
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: probably ARE so while I think the dodgers should, WIN
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: this game i think, probably the approach, in my opinion
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: would be to go over.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: IN this game i think there are more.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: Indicators that, that might HAPPEN even though I know the
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 4: dodgers have A good bultpen lower, could Pitch well but
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: i'm kind of leaning TOWARDS not and i think you're
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 4: gonna get Bad. Pitching, from colorado THOUGH now that i,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: said all that this might be a good game To
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: play the dodgers over, their team total because then you
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 4: take the mystery of lour out. Of the equation if
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: you like the over and You think the dodgers are gonna,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 4: win the Game and the dodgers should score off of
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 4: a guy that they tend to beat up who isn't
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 4: pitching well and A bad bullpend dodgers over team total,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: makes sense here but again you're probably gonna need him
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: to get to, six runs there but they definitely.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: Can do, that all RIGHT there's.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: No wnba today there WILL be five wnba, games tomorrow
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: though so WE'LL see if i wind up with any plays.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: On those games LET'S. Go to nhl we have, one
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: game Tonight which Is colorado AT. Vegas on espn vegas
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 4: three to. Nothing SERIES lead AND i know. I mentioned,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 4: yesterday for me, IT was like, i was like there
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: was just no way that you Could play the calves
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 4: yesterday BECAUSE, in the nba when a team goes down
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 4: three to, ZERO or three a lot of times they
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: just pack it in because they pretty much, know it's
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 4: over especially if you're the underdog.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: In the series you're. Not coming back it's never happened BEFORE.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: In the nba hockey, is way different though hockey is way.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: More manly like teams do.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: Not give, up in hockey like guys will just play
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 4: with like broken, bones And Shit which clay homes, by
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: the way did and when we had that Under In that,
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: Mets Yankees game clay holmes pitching out with a broken
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: leg and finishing his start.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 3: Manly shit man but hockey is like that.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 4: All the time and when a hockey team is, down
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: oh three usually they, Don't GO away so i think
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: they do give. You AN effort So i think colorado
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 4: is gonna give you. An effort here they're gonna try to.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: Stave off elimination and. It's been done four teams have
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 4: overcome an oh. Three deficit BEFORE, in the nhl, it's
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: NOT likely and i know six out of the nine
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 4: the last nine teams that have taken a three, to
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 4: zero lead six of them swept the series and won in.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 4: The next GAME but probably i would guess that most
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 4: of those teams were the favorite though and already. Had
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 4: the lead colorado is the favorite in, the series though,
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: so you know if if a team is going to
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: come back from down, three to zero it is going
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: to be a situation like this where the better team
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: is the one that's down. THREE to oho i still
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: don't think they're gonna be able, to DO it But
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 4: i think colorado might be able to win. This game
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 4: here it's gonna depend, if you, think you know are
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 4: they gonna, just you, know figure out we're, Down oh
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: three we're not coming. Back from this my guess is.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 4: Gonna BE no so I would. Lean colorado here they are.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 4: The BETTER teams So i know vegas is better at
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: home than. ON the road i know that game was
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: deathly like that's the type of game that can kind
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: of like rip, your gut out YOU know. What I
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: mean the colorado is, up three nothing although they did
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: score a shorthanded, goal in there and they blew the.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: THREE nothing, lead i mean, that. Is brutal dude so
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: maybe there is a little bit of a.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 4: HANGOVER effect there, I DON'T know AND i Know i
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 4: picked vegas to win this series, in my bracket but
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: lost My Champion with Tampa bay because montreal beat them
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 4: in a game where, they only scored where they only
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: had nine. Shots on goal, montreal, Is crazy dude carolina
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: dominated that game to.
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 3: Such a degree.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 4: Montreal HAD twelve shots i think in, that entire game,
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: including overtime yesterday and the same the. Game before That so,
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: that montreal team they're not as good as.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 3: They look like they're putting up so few.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 4: Shots it's, ridiculous but, Anyway this game Colorado actually outplayed vegas,
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: in THAT game and i know when you're down, three
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 4: to nothing you're gonna be.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 3: Taking more shots so that did happen. In the game
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: but they had twelve More.
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: Shots than VEGAS but what i worry About is that
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: vegas was the. More physical team vegas, doubled their hits
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: won the majority of the face, Offs AS well so
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: i do have. Some concerns, here I'M like usually i want,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: to see, that you know THE team that i want
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: to play to bounce back was better. Than even this
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: like the shots can kind of be explained, as DESPERATION
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: shots so i don't.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 3: Totally Love that so i'm not gonna.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: PLAY this game i will Lean slightly towards colorado as
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 4: the better team to stay. Of OFF elimination, like i
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: said if you look at this game and look at what,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 4: it was, like you know.
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: Even even strength colorado.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: Lost three to two rather than five to three because
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 4: there was a Shorthanded goal For colorado and vegas had
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: a power play goal in an.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: Empty NET goal so i think even strength it was Three.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: To two vegas.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 4: BUT we'll See i mean vegas is gonna, be Motivated
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 4: too because vegas does not want to be in A
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 4: situation where i know it's win.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 3: One game, and YOU win and i know you already.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: Won, twice in colorado but do you really want to
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: have to Go? Back to colorado probably, you do not.
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 3: BUT we'll see I would. Leave colorado slightly but my
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: read on that series has been a.
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 4: Little BIT off although i think THE only game i.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 4: Actually GAVE up did i give out a game a
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: game at all?
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 3: In THAT series. MAYBE i didn't I think maybe i've avoided.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: The series completely the total is. Sitting around six it
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 4: looks like it really hasn't. MOVED that much i know
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: one of you guys in, the comments said you play.
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: The under HERE you know i don't. KNOW about, that
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: i mean it's a.
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 4: Quick turnaround time the defenses on the quick turnaround time
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: can be a, little.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: Bit, iffy.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: You know it's in a three, to zero series the
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: game can get a little bit out OF hand, TO
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: i mean, i, DON'T know man I don't really i
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 4: don't have a good read. On the total i'm NOT
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: really an nhl totals guy accepting certain situations during the,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: regular season though or maybe if there's a.
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 3: Huge.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: You know like if there's a huge ZIGZAG spot like
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 4: i tried to With that, Other Colorado. Game colorado, MINNESOTA,
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 4: All right nba i'm gonna have a play. In This
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 4: game SAN, ANTONIO and Okc. Nbc and peacock it's AT.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: Eight thirty pm it's a two. To two series okayse is.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 3: BACK at home i still think that.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 4: THE better Team I think oklahoma city's gonna. Win this
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: game they played poorly in, their LAST game so i
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: think it looks like a bounce back To. Me for
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: oksee but there's some things you do have to. Worry
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 4: about here the injuries are kind of a Big Thing
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: where san antonio is kind of back to Full Strength
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: after dylan harper had. Some injury issues they've been having
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: him come off the bench last, couple of games but
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: part of that Was also because, fox came Back So
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 4: san antonio fox now has two games.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 3: Under his Belt so san antonio is back. At full.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 4: Strength That's Good WHEREAS Oklahoma city aj mitchell is gonna,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: miss this game. Which is bad so he's been.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 3: Decent for.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: Them he's out they're Definitely Gonna need jalen williams. To
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: come back i'm hoping that he does, for My play
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: but i'm gonna make this play regardless and hope that
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 4: it happens because you're looking At a deep, thunder, Team
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 4: anyway man so hopefully they can kind of account for.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 4: These injuries anyway but it would Definitely Help if jalen,
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: williams comes BACK even though i know if he does
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: after missing a game or, two or, whatever it, could
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 4: you know disrupt their momentum.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: A little bit but you're talking about a two to
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: two seeds is where you're.
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: Back, at home man nobody's gonna, overlook this Game but,
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 4: for okac's sake they Definitely Would want jalen williams to get.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 4: Back in here they Have The, other jalen williams, by
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: the way who is. Not as good now if we look,
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: at this game there's also ANOTHER.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: Edge for okac here WHERE.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: The depth i think is gonna become A thing where
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: i think the depth and the EXPERIENCE might push okac through.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 3: In THIS series so i like. All, that, too okay
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 3: see is the.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 4: More experienced team they've, Been here before, they've done, This
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: You know san antonio their gaining experience, as they go
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 4: but they still haven't, been you know this is conference finals.
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 3: To two series they still haven't.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 4: Been Here Before and san antonio is the, less deep
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 4: Team Even with oklahoma city. With Those injuries oklahoma city
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: runs a lot of guys out there, on the court
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: and you can see based on look at the box
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 4: score of, THE last game okac only, had One.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 3: Guy just sga played.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 4: Thirty plus minutes nobody else on the team played even
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: played more, than twenty six which. Was home grin and
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 4: then if You Look, at san antonio they had four
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 4: players played. Thirty plus minutes they're four best players basically
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 4: all Played, that with champaignee however you pronounces that champagne.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 4: Playing twenty Nine so the spurs have been the. Less
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 4: DEEP team man i Know they used dyan harprop the bench,
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 4: for twenty One but okay see runs a deeper, rotation
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 4: OUT there which i think is Gonna help okay see
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 4: not only in that they, have more options but they
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 4: stay more, rested, That Way right like, lego just showed
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 4: you look at the amount of minutes these, teams OF
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: play and i think as this series gets, deeper into
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: it The Minutes that san antonio's, PLAYERS are playing i
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: think it's definitely gonna be adding up man and these
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 4: teams are playing on a, short you know on a
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 4: short on, short rest here so It sounds Like I'm playing,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 4: oklahoma CITY here and i. Would not disagree they're laying
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 4: four and a, half here now and in the, last
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 4: home game what were they like six? And a half
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 4: so there Is Value Playing oka whoma city at minus four.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 4: AND a, half i agree if you're gonna, PLAY the
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: side i would lay The Points. With oklahoma city they're
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: coming off a kind of a blowout loss.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: Where they lost it was their.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 4: Worst playoff game they lost, by twenty one one hundred
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: and three. To eighty two it was an oddly low scoring.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: Game As well but i'm gonna take a different approach here.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: With THIS play so.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 4: I was thinking i was probably gonna lay The Points.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 4: With oka SEE and while, I like that i think that's.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 4: A good option I'm gonna go oka c over their
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: team total of one eleven. And a half we're Gonna
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 4: play okay see to bounce back from their worst offensive.
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 4: PERFORMANCE by far i think this is where the biggest positive.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 4: Regression can HAPPEN it's for okac to score way more
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 4: than they did in. That LAST game and i know
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: they're going up against, a good defense but we're looking
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 4: at defenses that might be a little, bit TIRED here
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 4: and i know that. In game five game fives tend to,
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 4: be defensive heavy like unders hit a lot. In Game
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: five but i'll talk about the. Toll right now real
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 4: quick totals. AT two seventeen i think the last game
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 4: was at about eighteen to eighteen. And A half but
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 4: i don't like, the under here EVEN though normally i
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 4: would lean towards an under in game five because again
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: it's basically whoever wins this game is pretty likely to.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 4: Win the series it's, a big game so usually you
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: get the. Most intense deepfense so, the problem is even.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: Though we're GOING.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 4: BACK to okc a, lot of times there'll be an
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 4: extra day often there, for the travel but because these locations,
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: are so close there.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 3: Was not an.
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 4: Extra day off these teams are playing on. One DAY
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: rest so i don't love that for an under because
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: the deepfenses. Won't be rested but also because the last
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: game was the lowest scoring game of, the series easily
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: that makes me not, like this MAN whoops as i
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 4: go to the? Wrong thing HERE actually do i have? The,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 4: game up oh you can just look.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 3: At it.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: Here my mistake one hundred three. TO eighty, two i
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 4: mean the game went way, under the total MOSTLY because
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 4: of okc scoring. Only EIGHTY two but i would lean
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: over in this GAME actually because i think the regression
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 4: points here all indicate towards a higher. SCORING game, here
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 4: i mean you had a one eighty five total, in
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: that game and you had both teams shoot below forty percent,
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: from THE, field especially okac and you had both teams
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 4: also shoot poorly from, three point range so they both
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: shot below thirty, Percent FROM three so i think both
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: teams are actually gonna positively. Regress OFFENSIVELY here so i
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 4: would actually lean over. In this, GAME but again I
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 4: like okay see on, the TEAM total but i do also.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: Like the, side You know maybe i'm rethinking that a
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: little Bit because okay see was at a bit of
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 4: a free throw disadvantageable, only By Eight but san antonio
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: missed way more of their FREE throw so i do
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: Worry that okay se could maybe regress a little bit
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 4: in their. Free throw percentage eighty nine percent, is pretty
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 4: high so they might miss more free. Throws This Time
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 4: but san antonio did go to the line a lot more.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: Fourteen times more rebounding was a little bit In, fair
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: san antonio but. Not Too Much but oka see also
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: had a. TON of turnovers i think that's good FOR
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 4: looking for okc to bounce back HERE or for okac
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: to SCORE more, because i mean look at how many
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 4: scoring opportunities they missed by, having, twenty turnovers dude YOU know. What,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 4: i mean like if they cleaned that up, a LITTLE
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 4: bit which i, think they will, especially at home they're
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: gonna have a way better opportunity to opportunity. To score,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: MORE and again i think the biggest regression Point Here
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 4: is oklahoma city shot thirty three percent from the field
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: and eighteen percent from three man and they didn't go
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: to the. LINE that much i could see a lot
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 4: More offense, from okasee here and if you look at
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 4: what they've done, THROUGHOUT the playoffs okse went over this
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 4: total in all Four, games.
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 3: AGAINST phoenix so I.
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 4: Know that's phoenix the only game that they went under
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 4: this Total in the Lakers series, was game one AND
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 4: that was I Think because oka see had a huge
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: layoff After.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 3: They swept phoenix THEY'RE waiting for La, to beat.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: Houston which, took SIX games So I think oka see
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: came out rusty in that FIRST game against la with,
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 4: the LONG layoffs so i kind of put an asterisk.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: Next to that then the rest, Of the series okacs
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: scored over this. Total EVERY time although I know the
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 4: lakers are nowhere near The Depfense that, SAN antonio is,
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 4: i get That But also oklahoma city has also scored
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 4: over this number in every game of this series except
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: that most Recent One. Against san antonio that was the
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: only time where they didn't Even in their, game one
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: loss they got. Over this, TOTAL but yes i know
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 4: it went, into double overtime so we do have to take.
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: That into, ACCOUNT and yeah i think the other no
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 4: that was the only game that. Went into overtime but
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 4: if You think okay se, IS gonna win i think
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 4: they're gonna get, over this total because in both of
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 4: their wins they got. Over this total both of them.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 4: Were in regulation they're playing. AT home here, i. LIKE
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: this MAN i think okac is actually correlated to, The
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 4: over here so it would MAKE sense that i. Like
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: THE over but i kind of like the over just
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: because both teams shot poorly in the last game and
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 4: it was. SO low scoring i think the zigzag opportunity towards.
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: An over here but if you, like the over okay
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 4: see was the worst of the shooting performances in, the
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: last game and You like okay see to bounce back and,
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 4: win this game okay see over the team Total is
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 4: what i'm. Gonna do here so that is the play
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 4: over one eleven. AND a half i don't know if
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 4: you can find a better number than that out. THERE
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 4: or NOT i guess i can. Look Right Now because
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: action network doesn't really let you line shop that easily on.
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: The team totals they do let you line shot pretty
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 4: easily on the rest. Of the stuff, Let me, SEE
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: and yes i still agree with laying laying The Points
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: of oklahoma city WAS almost what i, was GONNA do so,
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 4: i would, ALSO you know I would obviously i would
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 4: not disagree with laying The Points of.
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 3: Oklahoma city either.
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 4: And, by the way if you want like a player,
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 4: prop or Something McCain for oklahoma city was one for
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 4: ten shooting in, the last game so he got a
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 4: lot of shot opportunities and MISSED everything because I think
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 4: san antonio keyed on him because he played really well
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 4: in the, game before that and, With you know Mitchell
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 4: and maybe, WILLIAMS both out i think McCain over his
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: team total over his point total might make sense as
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: far as like a. Prop is concerned that might be
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 4: THE one that i really focus on. In This Game
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 4: and oklahoma city is gonna need him, to play well
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 4: but he definitely has the. Ability to do, So hold
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 4: on i'm just looking at the team totals, Here real.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: Quick i'm looking i'm just looking AT uh.
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: At dk HERE.
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 5: Why?
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 4: Don't i see oh there They, are Team yeah they
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: they've moved stuff around.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 3: On the site. Here it is.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: You can actually find one ten and a, Half right
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 4: now so. Let's do that that's.
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 3: A better?
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 4: Number, fuck IT okay see i see minus one ten
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: and a half out, there right now let's. Get, it
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: done man.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 3: There we. Go even better so that's.
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: My, play here okay see over their TEAM total because
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 4: i think both teams are gonna put up. More scoring,
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 4: HERE but yes i think there is also value in
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: laying The, points of okay see it's, a SHORTER number
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 4: so i, like That, too mister, pinsey, thank you sir thanks.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 4: For hanging out everybody that's. Gonna do it my play
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 4: is one, more time today let's keep.
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 5: This.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 3: Run going man we Have Under In.
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 4: Braves red sox under the eight and a HALF is
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 4: what i changed it to at a. Decent price there
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 4: under eight isn't really, much different though Under Eight, in
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 4: cardinals milwaukee so some of you guys said seven, and
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 4: a half it's not a, huge difference there and then thunder.
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 3: Team total, OVER but yes i agree with laying the.
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 4: Points as well that would be my second best option,
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 4: in that game would be to lay the four and
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 4: A Half, with oklahoma city that's.
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 3: Gonna do, it, but again okay see.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 4: When they've, won they've covered they've gone over this team,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 4: Total as well so that's gonna do.
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 3: It for me.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 4: Learn It, tode on twitter learn It. Tode on instagram you.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: Follow me there if you subscribe To, me on twitter that.
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: Helps me out what else do we have? Going on
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: here like subscribe to this channel here obviously that helps me.
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 3: Out as well.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: Listen, On, Audio, Speaker spotify apple that all helps get. These,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 4: NUMBERS up, baby i mean look at. My numbers, here
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 4: come on you don't, want this, information.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 3: Let's go baby.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 4: Trying to do something DIFFERENT in the, nba playoffs man
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 4: and it might fuck, ME because, Uh i know i'm
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 4: my mind is all. Over THE place but nba playoffs
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 4: are usually really, good for me and haven't been that
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 4: good for, me this season so, below five hundred so what?
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 3: Can?
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: You do man last year it was it. Was Definitely, Better,
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 4: BUT hockey baseball wnba have. All been, good so anyway
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 4: listen on audio or there covering in you because my yuke,
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 4: channel on YouTube so you can Check that out Patron,
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 4: dot kom sash learn it tote if you want to support.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 3: Me that way there's some bonus, Yuke.
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 4: Stuff there, spotify feed requests maybe my LIVE streams if i.
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 4: Start doing those my voice really is not good, right
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 4: NOW though so i gotta just get all the stuff
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: up to Date with. What I've uploaded maybe i'll try
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 4: to do that today, and, then yeah whatever and then
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: what else?
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 3: Say, have Say. Oh Loser, cast it's Tuesday so loser
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 3: cast will.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 4: BE back TONIGHT i think i don't know if As
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 4: long as layton is back From the, awful libertarian convention
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 4: we should be doing, the show tonight. But we'll SEE
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 4: and then i will Be doing A giants g Spot
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 4: episode with ben to preview the season and review the.
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 4: Draft coming soon so all those links are, in my.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 4: Link dream man so let's, get it Going hopefully my
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: oh and Of course stream yards sucking up my internet might.
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 4: BE fucking up i don't know, what's going on, but,
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: of course YEAH changing what i DO in, the nba
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 4: playoffs hopefully that'll. Work out well but let's. Get it
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 4: done that's.
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 3: Gonna.
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: Do it peace but don't, you go quiet don't you fade.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 3: From the flow your name still mean something to.
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: Somebody for show put, the, glass down baby, Look, at me.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: No hold on hold on.
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 3: Nothing nice, now.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: Hold, on hold on let. Me for you, that bites
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: horn but it don't.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: Get the, crown hold on hold on and stay with
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: me now