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Transcript

Padres/Mariners MLB + WNBA Best Bets Monday 8/25/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four, I have not had a good season. Man
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: bruins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is anymore. But I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Man's back with you after the worst day that I.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: To the slump, Yes, the slump discontinuers, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you better off dead? Monday, August
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: twenty fifth, is that what it is?
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Yesterday? Another win winning day. Uh so, I'll take that.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: Obviously, probably should have been a little bit better than
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: a nod than it wound up being. It was a
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: two to one and one day on the show yesterday
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: we got the Baltimore Orioles correct out the money line.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: It was a close game.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: I think they had the lead for more of the
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: game than they didn't, and they want to pulling it
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: off with a close win.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: The Toronto Miami.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: First five under was probably the most irritating one because
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: that was in the bag. Dude. That was a one
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: nothing game into the bottom of the fifth inning, and
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: then Gussman kind of imploded and gave up three runs
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: to Miami all in the bottom of the fifth. I mean,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: you have a game you have to get it under
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: four and it's a one nothing game with a half
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: an inning left, that's almost guaranteed that you're gonna hit
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: that one. And that one lost. So that was actually
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: pretty brutal, a bad beat. I'd be even more pissed
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: if it loss. But at least if you got the four,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: it was a it was a push.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: But if you got the if you had.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Three and a half on that one, that was really brutal.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: And then the game wound up, I believe going over
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: for the full game.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: So pretty brutal.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: We did get the Cubs Anaheim under five and a
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: half in the first four, correct, I think it landed
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: up five. I think it was a four to one
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: game at that point, so it was maybe slightly dicey,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: but it did hit. And then we had the loser
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: was the A's Seattle under in the first five. Jacob
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Lopez had a really bad game for once, just kind
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: of inexplicably. I don't know what happened with him there,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: but that was that was the one actual loss. We
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: move on to today, I will have four more baseball players,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: and even though it's kind of a shorter baseball card today,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: today is basically all baseball, man, So that is what
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: we're going with here.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: It's all baseball. Let me see if I can not
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: share the screen here? Hang on, I have multiple windows open.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: It's kind of annoying. I don't know why. It's still
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: it's showing me looking at my own screen. What is
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: happening here? Hang on?
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: What I think I was sharing the streamyard screen? That's
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: probably really sketchy, actually.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: But now you can see all my bets. Oops. All right,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: there we go. Technical difficulties, me being an idiot. I mean,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: here we go. Let's jump right into today. Man. We
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: have two WNBA games, both with double digit spreads.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Not gonna want anything to do with these. We do
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: have Connecticut at New York. The Liberty of actually not
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: been playing well recently, and they've actually fallen two games
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: behind first place in the East. Now as they've fallen
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: behind the Dream by two games, as they lost to
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: the Dream in the last game, which was a big game,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: maybe they'll be a little bit hungover coming off of
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: that game. And they were returning home as well playing
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: against Connecticut. Connecticut playing maybe a little bit better than
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: they were earlier. I mean, they've won three games in
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: a row, but against the other two worst teams in
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: the conference, Washington Chicago. So this is definitely a big
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: time step up for them. Will they show up yes, probably,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: And the Liberty you're down from fourteen to eleven. I
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: think this has to do with the injury situation here.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: The Liberty have a lot of players on the injured
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: list right now are listed as game time decisions Stewart
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: ian Escu. I mean, this could be a bit of
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: an issue for them, so I think that's part of
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: the reason why the line moved down.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: They still should win this game.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: But asking them to cover a double digit number like that,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure. A mental though, you might be
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: getting a little bit more value on it now just
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: because of the injury question marks that are there. Vegas
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: is also a double digit favorite at Chicago ten and
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: a half point favorite here Chicago. They just lost to
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Connecticut at home, which is a pretty embarrassing loss. I mean,
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Chicago is now for the first time actually tied with
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: Connecticut in the standings, and I guess they've lost the tiebreaker,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: so they're considered to be behind them in the standings,
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: which is pretty embarrassing. So they'll probably at least want
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: to kind of step up and show up for this game.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Vegas is on a hot streak right now. They've won
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: ten games in a row.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I believe they're traveling between Washington and Chicago here. Vegas.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: They're up in second place now, and I think they
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: want to make sure that they're gonna get like the
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: best seating that they can in the playoffs at least,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: so they do have reason to continue playing as well.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: I probably would not lay the ten and a half
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: on the road, though, I mean, it probably would make
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: more sense to actually grab Chicago plus the points in
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: the embarrassed spot there. But we're not gonna do anything
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: with that. We're gonna do some baseball here. We await
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: the rest of football is. I don't think football. We
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: have anything else until three days from now. We have
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: some Thursday college foot well actually a ton of Thursday
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: college football, so I guess we're gonna have to prepare
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: for that shit. And then we got an NFL coming
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: up on not until next Thursday, so NFL on hiatus. Here,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Let's jump into MLB here, man. Every game is in
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: the evening today, Boston, Baltimore. I'm gonna skip for now
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: because I have a play on that one. If you
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: know how I handicapped games, you will probably already know
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: what it is. Atlanta Miami. I do have somewhat of
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: a lien in this game. We can look at it
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: because I'm not gonna give out a play on this one.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is coming off a win over the Mets. So
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: the Atlanta, I mean, they have nothing left.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: To play for.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Neither does Miami at this point, although Atlanta they may
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: at least want to play for some semblance of pride
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: here and not want to continue to be behind Miami,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: so maybe they do have a motivational aspect of this.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Game for that reason.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: I think Miami probably will show up as well, just
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: because Atlanta tends to be one of the best teams
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: in the division and they're coming into their place.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Atlanta broke a little bit of a long street yesterday.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: It was a big win over the Mets, so I
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: think that's a bigger game than what this Miami game
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: would be. So Atlanta might be feeling a little bit
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: high on themselves, maybe in a little bit of a
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: letdown spot coming into this one. Having to travel in
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: from home, though, I think right yeah, So Atlanta is
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: starting road trips, so sometimes that is actually a focused
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: spot because you want to get off on the road
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: trip on the right foot. Miami staying at home, and
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: they did just beat Toronto yesterday, which I think that'll
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: just give them a little bit of confidence, so I
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: think the spot is a little bit better from Miami here.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I actually think Miami might even have the slightly better
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen at this point, but they do have the more
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: rested bullpen coming into this game slightly using a bit
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: fewer relievers yesterday.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: At least at.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: This point, I don't even know if Atlanta has the
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: better offense, to be honest, Atlanta they're at fifteenth Miami seventeenth,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: so again it's really close in ops team wise. Starting pitching,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: I think it's pretty clear that one of these pitchers
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: is in a lot worse recent form than the other,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: and that is Atlanta's Spencer stride Or, who normally is
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: a pretty good pitcher, but he came he tried to
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: come back from injury this year.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: He definitely looked like his old.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Self for a while and he was pitching really well,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: but he has just imploded this month and his numbers
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: have gotten atrocious this month. Overall, this season now, just
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: because of what he's done this month. Basically, he went
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: from having like a three something ERA and whip below
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: one to two up to an ERA of five point
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: two four and a whip of one point four to three.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's ridiculous. He has a bad five point
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: seventy five road ERA as well, so he's bad on
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: the road.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: His numbers this month have gotten so bad that they're
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: almost unbelievable.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: In three starts, he has a fifteen point four to
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: three ERA this month.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Which is ridiculous.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: He's alloted five or more runs in all three starts,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: took a loss in all three, didn't make it to
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: the fifth, didn't make it through the fifth inning, and
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: any of them. Most egregiously, last time out, he allowed
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: seven earned runs to a very weak White Sox lineup.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: Does have a ten to four strike a walk rature
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: this month, but he's allowed just an outrageous twenty nine
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: hits and eleven and two thirds innings in addition to
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: the twenty earn runs seven home runs as well.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: This month. He's in about as bad form as you'll
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: be as you'll ever see. So will he bounce back?
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because Miami isn't really that good of
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: an offense, and Miami's actually somehow never seen Strider before,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: even though he's in their division. Don't know how that
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: is the case, but it is. So Strider at least
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: does have an unfamiliarity edge with the Marlins, so they
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: might have to adjust to try to figure him out.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: So that's that's the one thing that gives me a
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: little bit of hesitation, because I.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Was looking at Miami as the play in this game.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Miamis Edward Cabrera pitching, who clearly has been better than
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Stride or this season three point five two ERA, one
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: point two to two whip. He's pitching pretty well, a
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: little bit better at home three point two to two
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: ERA at home last couple of starts, he's not been
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: that good though, with a ten to four strike a
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, which is the same that Strider has all month.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Which is ridiculous.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: So Cabrera's strikeout rate is way better this month. But
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Cabrera's allowed nine runs across nine to two thirds innings
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: the last couple of times out against Cleveland and Saint Louis.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: That's not really a good sign. But the start before that,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: he absolutely dominated this Atlanta Braves team went eight innings,
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: allowing one earned run on two hits, eleven strikeouts, one walk.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: So he did dominate the Braves last time out, although
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: it doesn't mean the Braves just saw him. But this
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: month he still does have a four point one eightyra
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: which is mediocre.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: It's good considering how.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: Bad he was in the last two outings thirty to
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: six strike a walk ratio, so that tells me he's
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: still in good form.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: His walk rate really hasn't gone up this month. I mean,
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: if anything, it's got a bit down, So that's a
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: good sign up against the Braves.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good and sixty seven.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: At bats twenty eight to eight strike a walk ratio
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: one forty nine batting average allowed five twenty four oh ps.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: So it wasn't just the recent start for him that
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: was good. He just generally is good against Atlanta. So
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: I do lean to Miami in this game, although the
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: money seems like it's coming back on the Atlanta side
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: after they dropped for minus one to twenty five to
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: minus one oh seven on the money line, eighty nine
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Atlanta, with sixty four percent
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on Miami.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: I don't really understand that. Don't understand what.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: The professional money is doing there, and the money seems
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: to be coming in on the under as well. It's
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: dropped on the total to seven and a half seventy
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: nine percent of the tickets on the over eighty two
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under. I don't necessarily
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: disagree with an under. I mean, you could consider maybe
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: avoiding the bullpens and going first five, but you probably
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: have to get a really low total, like you probably
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be able to find the four out there, which
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: you know, is what I look for in the first five.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: I'm not necessarily sure I disagree with an under because
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Strider could certainly bounce back here. But the Strider unknown
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: is what really worries me about handicapping this game, because
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: he could do well or he could do really badly.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: So it depends on which you thinkright, like his unfamiliarity
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: and his like ceiling or those things gonna weigh heavier
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: than his bad recent form.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I tend to think recent form is
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the thing.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: That you have to look at actually more strongly, so
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: I tend to actually lean to Miami in this game,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: but I'm not gonna make it a play for today's show.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Sack. What's up, man? Royals? Are they They're not playing today?
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I don't think they are.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay and Cleveland this is kind of a weird
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup as well. Cleveland's returning on from a road trip.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: They lost all but one game on the road trip.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: But you know, Cleveland, I mean, they know they're out
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: of it at this point. They were sellers at the
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: trade deadline. They got hot for a little bit, but
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: they're out of it. Tampa also out of it, so
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: it's like, I mean, there's nothing left to play for
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: for these teams either. Cleveland rereturning home from a road trip,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: and you know when a team returns home from a
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: road trip, they can be a little bit distracted having
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: to get back to home life. So it's not really
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: a good spot for Cleveland here. Tampa Bay coming in
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: from home, so they're starting a road trip with a
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: little bit of momentum after beating Saint Louis twice. So
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is at least coming in with a little
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: bit of momentum and maybe focused for the first game
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: of a road trip. Bullpen wise, Tampa Bay does have
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: the better of the two bullpens. They saw a bit
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: of usage yesterday, but Cleveland has had more bullpen usage recently.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: They used five relief pitchers yesterday. So you got to
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: give the bullpen edge to Tampa here. You got to
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: give the offense to Tampa as well. The edge in
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: the offensive department. Tampa does have the better offense here.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's is pretty bad.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Look at the.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Starting pitching, though, Tampa's going with a guy who was
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: a relief pitcher, Ian Seymour. I think this might be
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: his first actual start in his major league career, and
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: he's still a pretty young guy.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: He's a lefty.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: He has good numbers this year three point eight six ERA,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: one point one to six WHIP. He's actually been way
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: better on the road two point four to five yr
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: on the road. I believe this will be his first start, though,
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: and they ramped up his pitch count a little bit
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: in the last couple of games. He pitched three innings
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: or more than three innings three and a third and
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: then three innings in his last two outings. But he
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: got absolutely hammered by the Yankees and his last outing
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: and three innings in relief. I believe he gave up
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: six or runs three home runs in that Tampa Bay
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: Stadium though, where like I said, he does way worse
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: than that stadium, and I think there is a reason
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: for that because Tampa Stadium is a temporary stadium.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: It's the Yankees spring training.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: Stadium, so a lot of balls fly out of that stadium,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: balls flying all over the place. It's very gay, so
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: maybe you give him a pass for that. And it
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: was against a good offense, the Yankees. If you look
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: at his overall stats, they're pretty good. So he might
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: do okay in this game, but you know he's not
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: gonna go deep into this game, and that's kind of
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: the problem.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Is Tampa's offense.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Excuse Tampa's bullpen is probably gonna be coming into this
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: game sooner than Cleveland's is. Although Cleveland has never faced
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: Seymour before, so while he's in there, maybe he will
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: actually pitch okay, But I don't know if I would
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: want to bank on it, although I don't think I
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: want to bank on Tan or by Be either. He's
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: not having the greatest season here man a lot worse
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: than he was last year. Four point six two ERA
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: one point two to nine whip. He's definitely had a
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: regression season this year. He is way better at home though,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: three point one to nine ERA, So if you want
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: to look at the home road splits, they're actually in
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: favor of both starting pitchers here, Biby, he's been really
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: bad over the last like seven or eight starts, though
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: he's allowed four more runs in every start going all
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: the way back into late June.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I believe no, wait, he said, excuse me, no, that's wrong.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: He's had three starts where he hasn't done that, but
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: all but three starts going back to late June, that's
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: been the case. He somehow was on a stretch where
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: his team won seven games in a row behind him
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: even though he was bad and basically every start, and
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: then he finally lost one at Arizona last time out
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: by basically pitching the same that he was, and the
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: rest of these outings this month, he hasn't gone six
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: full innings in any of his starts. Five point nine
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: one this month, twenty two to eleven strike a walk
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: ratio pretty bad. His walk number has gone up again.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: He's not pitching particularly well right now. Up against Tampa
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: Bay let's see, he does have good numbers against Tampa Bay.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: It's a small sample size, twenty three at bats. He
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: only have five hitters who have faced him before, but
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: they have no extra base hits, ten strikeouts, no walks,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: two seventeen average four to thirty five ohps. So if
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Biby is gonna bounce back against some offense, maybe it
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: will be this one.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it's really really.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Come in initially on Tampa because Cleveland dropped for one
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: to fifty five to minus one fifteen. But it looks
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: like fifty eight percent of tickets are on Tampa and
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of the cash on Cleveland, So it
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: looks like after that huge line drop, the money started
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: coming in on Cleveland, which all of that seems weird
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: to me, Like if Tampa was deciding on a starting pitcher,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: I don't see any way that them deciding that Seymour
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: was gonna be basically an opener in this game. That
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: would not shift the line towards Tampa, you wouldn't think,
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: So I don't really understand why the line is moved
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: like that with the cash percentage actually being on Cleveland,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: So I think something else move that line, not exactly
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: sure what I actually think the unders as bad as
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: the sounds, I actually think the under.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Might be a better look in this game, although.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust Cleveland's bullpen, but I doubt that
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: you can find a good loan number in the first
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: four first five innings. You probably can't find a four
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: because the totals all the way down from eight and
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: a half to seven and a half.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Juice to the under.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Both of those juiced to the under sixty percent of
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: tickets on the over nine to seven percent of the
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: cash in the under. I don't really trust either starting
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: pitcher though, so I don't think I could really recommend
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: putting your money on the under. But I think if
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I was forced to play this game, I guess that
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: would be the way that I would be looking in
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: the game. I mean, again, as insane as that might sound,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: would have a slightlying to Tampa Bay probably as well,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: just because of the situation and because I think they
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: have the offense the end the bullpen edge, and it's
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: really hard to predict the starting pitching matchup, but Biby
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: has been in bad form and Seymour is at least
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to Cleveland, so maybe you give that edge to Tampa.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: And Tampa at least is a team that is used
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: to doing bullpen games like this because they were the
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: team that started at all back with I think Joe
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: Madden back in the day, although they don't do it
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: as much now, but they still to some degree do
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: things like that. Again, we will see, but it is
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: possible that because Biby's matchup numbers are so good and
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Seymour is unfamiliar, that they actually both pitch well and
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: that we see an under and that is the way
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: that the money is coming in there Washington.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: At the Yankees.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: Of course, first read of this is that you want
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: to tend to fade the teams that were in the
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: Sunday night game Hint, Hint, which the Yankees won finally
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: unfortunately against the Red Sox, breaking an eight game loss
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: streak against the Red Sox unfortunately, to pull back within
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: a half game of the Red Sox.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Yankees, that's a big win for them.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: So coming up of that game, will they be in
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot with a bad team like Washington coming in.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: It is definitely possible, But I don't really want to
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: fade the Yankees here. Because the matchup gives the Yankees
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: the advantage in every single aspect of this matchup. I
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: believe so, even though the situation is a little bit
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: against them, did at least break a law streak and
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: that might give him some momentum going forward. They're not traveling.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Washington is traveling in from Philadelphia, so it's not much
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: travel for them either. They played a pretty big series
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: against Philly, though they played tough in that series.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: That was a big series for Washington.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: They will probably still show up to face the Yankees, though,
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: but again, I don't think you can lay the Yankees
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: on a huge money line price like this, and I
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: think they're potentially in kind of a bad spot here.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: But I really don't love Washington here, hate the match
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: up for Washington, so I'm not gonna recommend anything on
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: this as far as the.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Side is concerned.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Yankees actually have the better bullpen because Washington is so bad,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: and Washington's actually used more of their bullpen as well.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: Yankees obviously have the way better offense as well, and
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: starting pitching, you got to give that edge to.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: The Yankees as well.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: Even though Brad Lord for Washington has surprised me and
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: has done me in a couple of times this year.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: I've banked on him pitching poorly and it's gone against me.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: But I don't think he's very good. He's basically a
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: converted reliever that they have starting now. Three point four
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: to six ERA, one point two to five WHIP. I
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: know those are not bad numbers. He's actually better on
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: the road two point five to four R.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: In the road. He's been okay this month with a
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: four point h nine in RA eighteen to.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Seven strike a walk ratio, which is most of the
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: starts that he's made. Washington has actually won six excuse me,
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: five of his six starts, which isn't too bad.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: Really. Again, I've been caught going against him. He had
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: an a lot more than three on runs.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: And then he's starting until the most recent one where
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: he allowed four against the Mets. Mets are decent offense,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: but still he might be starting to slide a little
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: bit here, man, because lord, he's.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Not like a huge strikeout pitcher.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: I still don't think he's really that good, so I'm
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: not really expecting a whole lot out of him here
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I think he's kind of falling out a form a
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: little bit.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: But the Yankees only have one guy who's ever faced
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: a McMahon, who they got from the Rockies right before
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: the trade deadline. He's zero for one with a walk
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: of Lord. But even the Lord, it's unfamiliar to them.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: I don't expect him.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: To do well. Yankees have the rookie Cam.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: Schlittler on the mound three point two two ERA one
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: point three two whip for him, so his whip is
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: too high. But he's been pitching better this month, although
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: he is a little bit worse at home four point
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: one two ERA at home this month is a two
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: point eight RA in four starts, twenty three to seven
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: strike at walk ratio hasn't allowed more than two earn
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: runs in any.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Of those starts.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: It's just that the offense hasn't really backed him in
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: some of these starts. And he actually hasn't allowed more
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: than three and runs in any outing all season, so
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: he is actually pitching pretty well. He's holding opponent run
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: totals down. His walk issue that he had his first
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: month is actually pretty much gone now, so he's pitching
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: well overall. And you know, Washington has never seen him
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: before because Schlittler is a rookie, so he does have
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: the advantage of not having been seen before, so he
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: has even more of an unfamiliarity edge than Lored doesnt.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Schlittler is obviously the better of these two pitchers, so
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: I do think the Yankees should get this thing done.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: I think if you want to look at the Yankees
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: in this game at all, you probably would want to
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: go over their team total. Yankees are up to Mindu's
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: two twenty five on the money line, eighty five percent tickets,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: nine to nine percent of the cash coming in on them.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: I think the way to do it is to go
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: with the Yankees.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: To just score off of Brad Lord plus the Washington
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Terrible bullpen probably is the way I would go. The
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: totals at nine, so it's expected to be not that
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: low scoring of a game here.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: It's a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Yankees offense seems like they're back at least in some
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: degree of form after scoring seven runs last night, so
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: that's probably the way I would approach that game if
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: I had to play it. Minnesota Toronto, I'm gonna give
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: out a play at the end of the show. Philadelphia
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: and the Mets Big Series Man these are the top
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: two teams in the NL East. Mets probably have a
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: little bit more to try to play for here is
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: Philly has taken control of the division with the Mets
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: playing so poorly over the last month or so. Mets
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: did just lose yesterday to finish their series against Atlanta.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: They're returning over from a road trip, so again, not
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: the greatest spot when you return home from a road trip.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: Again you have to get back to family life. But
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: they're staying on the East Coast. They're facing Philadelphia, so
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: you know it's a series that they're still gonna get
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: up for. So I don't think the distraction is gonna
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: completely come into play here.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Both teams should show up for this.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is starting a road trip, so it is a
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: little bit of a better situational spot for them with
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: some momentum coming off some fairly easy wins over Washington.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: As far as the bullpens are concerned, Philadelphia does still
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: have the worse of these two bullpens usage wise. Mets
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: actually used a little bit less of theirs yesterday too,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: so the Mets two of the bullpen edge here. Philadelphia
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: is the better offensive team out of the two starting pitching.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: I think you have to give this to Philadelphia as well.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: They're looking at these two starting pitchers. This looks like
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: a big time pitching duel because both these pitchers.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Have really good eras.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: But I think that Christopher Sanchez for Philly is clearly
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: the better of the two. He's having a really good
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: season two point four to six ERA, one point one whip.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: He's only slightly worse on the road two point five
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: four r on the road this month, two point zero
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: five ran, four starts, thirty to five strike a walk ratio.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: His team has won three of the four starts. He's
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: been really good. He had twelve strikeouts last time out
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: against Seattle, hasn't a lot more than three earned runs
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: in any of those starts, so he's obviously in very
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: good form right now. Up against the Mets, his numbers
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: are pretty good. In one hundred and eleven at bats,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: they've seen a lot of them. He has a really
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: good thirty eight to nine strike a walk ratio. He's
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: a lot a little bit of power to them though
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: five home runs, five doubles. They only have a two
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: forty three average offense, so they don't hit him very
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: well for contact. When they make contact again, they hit
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: for a little bit of power seven to twenty three ohps,
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: so that's.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Still not that high.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: Sanchez is also better this year than he has been
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: in the past, so I do expect him to do
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: fairly well in this game. He faced the Mets way
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: back in April and it was only a two inning
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: outing ree allowed two earned runs, so I don't really
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: know that you could really even dig into that outing
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: at all. I don't think there's really a whole lot
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: to look at their CODEI Senga pitching for the Mets.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: I know he has a really good RA two point
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: five to eight, but his whip is a little bit
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: higher than you'd like to see one point twenty five.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: And this guy walks too many guys, man, I mean
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: there's no way around that. He is a little bit
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: better at home two point five RL, though really similar
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: This month, though he's struggled. Man, He's failed to make
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: it six complete innings in any start actually going all
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: the way back into June.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: I think he was hurt for a little while too.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: His team kept winning behind him until his last three
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: outings of the Mets have lost all three. He has
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: a five point two one ERA this month, seventeen to
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: nine strike a walk ratio, so the walk rate is
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: definitely too high. Like I said, that's kind of his
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: problem is he walks too many guys. He has a
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: lot of pitch counts that are just too high. He's
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: not that efficient with his pitches up against the Phillies.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: He actually has done really.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: Well in his history against the Phillies, though they're only
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: six for forty nine off in lifetime. Schwarber does have
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: a home run off his only head in seven at
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: bats with four strikeouts. Senga has a seventeen to four
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: strike at walk ratio against them, one twenty two batting
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: average in three to ninety three ops against So Sanga
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: does have good numbers against Philly. So even though I
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: do think Philly does have the upper hand in this
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: matchup here as far as the starting pitching is concerned.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: So I think I would probably lean.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: To Philadelphia in the first five because I don't think
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: they have the bullpen edge here. Sixty two percent of
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: tickets ninety three percent of the cash on Philly, so
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in on Philly. It is still
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: also a return home spot for the Mets, so I
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: still probably wouldn't even disagree with Philly full game, but
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: I think first five is a little bit of a
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: better approach. They're up though, for minus one oh five
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: to minus one thirty one, so you are having to
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: lay a price for that.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Although I think.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: There is a reason why the professional money's coming in
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: on Philly, and like I said, I think Senga is
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: not as good as his numbers make him look.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Money is also coming in in the under. It's sitting
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: at eight.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Juice to the under on the total, fifty five percent
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on the under, ninety eight percent of
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under, and I don't disagree with
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: that either. You could go first five innings and just
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: go at the starting pitching matchup Senga. Again, he does
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: have good matchup numbers at the very least, so it
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: could indeed still be a pitching duel, even though like
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: I said, I don't think Sanga is as good as
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: his numbers look. His matchup is good here, so it
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: could still possibly be a pitching duel. But I think
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: I would probably still lean to Philadelphia first five money line,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: though more strongly than the under in that game, But
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I don't really disagree with the under, and maybe first
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: five innings is the better approach on that one to
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: avoid somewhat shaky bullpens, especially Philadelphia's Arizona at Milwaukee. Milwaukee's
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: staying at home, and they actually just lost a series
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: to San Francisco. They've actually lost two series in a
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: row now, so go figure in Milwaukee. Still, I believe
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: it's the best record in baseball and they probably still
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: have the best run differential in baseball. Milwaukee is the
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: only of these teams with something to play for here
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: is Arizona's just playing out the stretch, although again playing Milwaukee,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: go out on the road to face Milwaukee, you probably
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: will be focused. So though again Milwaukee's staying at home
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: off a couple losses, they'll probably be focused as well
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: to try to bounce back. I mean, losing to the
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: Giants is pretty ugly. Arizona did just lose a wind
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: streak though they were on a four game win streak,
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: and they lost to the Reds yesterday and the series finale.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: By the way, the.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Reds continue to avoid getting swept. I think the Reds
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: still have not been swept in any series this season,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: and they've pulled the last game of the series out
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: of their ass multiple times, including a game I forgot
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: to mention this was the case, the game I gave
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: out the Reds to break the Brewers long wind streak.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: That was the Reds avoiding a sweep as well there,
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: which is insane that they were able to do that
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: in that one, But I gave it out as a play,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: so I expected it to happen. Arizona, they could be
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: hung over a little bit after you lose a win
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: streak like this. Sometimes you're hungover. But they're starting a
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: road trip. They're facing the best team in baseball right now,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: so they should still be focused for this. It is
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: kind of a focused spot for them, regardless, I think
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: it's a focused spot for both teams here. As far
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: as the bullpens, you know, Arizona does not have the
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: better of the two bullpens. Their bullpen's not very good.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee used a little bit more of their bullpen, though
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: recently so Milwaukee's bullpen usage is a little bit worse. Still,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: think you have to give the bullpen edge a little
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: bit to Milwaukee here. The offenses are both good, so
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: I don't even know which team I would actually give
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: the offensive advantage tore. The d Backs are actually third
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: overall in OPS, even though they traded away some of
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: their hitters, which is really insane, So I guess you
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: give them the offensive edge. Milwaukee's down at eleventh. Milwaukee
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: also not quite as good offensively at home. Starting pitching, though,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: I think you have to give the edge to Milwaukee here.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Eduardo Rodriguez pitchy for Arizona. I think it's fairly obvious
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: he is the lesser of the two starting pitchers here,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: though I don't think he's quite as bad as his
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: numbers look, but he's never really been able to bounce
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: back from his like multiple Tommy Johns surgeries and whatever.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: He's got a five point four ERA this year, one
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: point six to one whip. Obviously, that's not very good.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: He is actually a little bit better on the road,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: with five point one four RM the road away from
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly Chase Field. This month, his team has won
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: all four of his starts, but two of them are
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: against the Rockies, one was against Cleveland, so he's stepping
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: back up in class to face Milwaukee here. And he
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: has a four point five ERA this month, which does
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: look pretty good, but seventeen to twelve strike out walk
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: ratio tells a different story. His strikeout rate is not
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: that high right now. His walk rate is definitely way
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: too high. So he's not in the greatest forum right now.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: So you do have to worry about how well e
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: Rod will pitch here in this one up against the
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee Brewers. He actually does have really good numbers against them,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: though they're only nine for forty four off him two
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: five average allowed, five to fifty ops seven to six
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio isn't particularly good though, But other
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: than that, his numbers are actually good against Milwaukee. Brandon
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: Woodrift pitching for Milwaukee again. He's come right back basically
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: from his injury where he missed over an entire season
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: with injuries and I think he might have had surgery
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: as well, and he's come back and done really well
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: so far the season two point four to seventy ra
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: point a five whip. The problem is that he was
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: pitching so well when he first started out that you
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: knew he had to regress a little bit because it's
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: just unsustainably. He was just pitching unsustainably well. He's been
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: pretty good both home and away. It doesn't really matter,
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: just slightly worse at home, but again he was really
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: really good. He hadn't allowed more than two earned runs
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: in any start up until recently, and his two recent
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: starts he only went four innings against against Pittsburgh, which
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: I thought was weird. I don't know why they pulled
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: him after sixty five pitches in that game, because he hadn't.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Allowed any runs in that one. That was a little
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: bit strange.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: I actually gave out in Milwaukee on the show in
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: that game and they got there for us. Then his
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: last outing was actually bad, but it was on the
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: road against the Cobs. We know the Cubs can hit,
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: but he didn't pitch well. Four and a third innings,
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: three earned runs, three walks. Still had good strikeout a
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: good strikeout rate six strikeouts give it five hits as well.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: I think he bounces back, though, because basically every other
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: one of his starts was good. There's a two point
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: nine to five VRA this month and twenty six to
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: eight strike a walk ratio, so I still think he's
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: pitching well. He's in good form, so I think he
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: does bounce back and pitch better here. But up against
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: the d Backs in his career, actually, yeah, he does
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: have good numbers against the d Backs.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know what I was about to say.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: Forty three at bats, they have a two thirty three average,
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: six sixty two oh ps, ten to two strike a
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: walk ratio against Woodruff, so he has done well against
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee in the past. Milwaukee's the public side, though they're
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: up for minus one seventy one of mine one seventy
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: two on the money line, a pretty heavy money line
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: favorite eighty five percent of tickets and only eight eighty
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on Milwaukee, so the money
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: seems to be slightly fading them, although I do think
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is probably the right side at least with the
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup, so you could maybe go a first
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: five inning run line with Milwaukee just to isolate the.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching matchup.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: The under in the first five innings might actually make
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: sense to just because both starting pitchers actually have a
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: good have good matchup numbers here, But I just don't
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: know if I trust EDWARDO Rodriguez enough. Man seventy four
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets and only sixty five percent of the
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, with the total flipping to eight
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: juice to the under, so it's actually bordering on falling
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: to seven and a half, which is a very low
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: total here, so Oddsmaker's kind of thinking these starting pitchers
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: will actually do well here. I wouldn't want to deal
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: with the bullpens at all, So if you can find
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: like a first five under four, maybe that's the way
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: to go in that game, Zach.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Here you go with the Royals.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: I thought that you were commenting early because the Royals
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: aren't playing today, But I'm an idiot. I handicapped this
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: game earlier, and I looked at this game, and my
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: first instinct on this game Royals White Sox was that
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: you want to look towards an under in this game
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: because the starting pitching matchup looks like it's a matchup
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: of two pretty good rookie pitchers, and we have two
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: pretty bad offenses. Yere, Chicago's even worse than Kansas City
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: is the White Sox. Obviously, I'm talking about not the Royals.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: The Royals have the better bullpen over the.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: White Sox fairly significantly, So if you go under, you
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: do have to worry a little bit about the White
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: Sox bullpen being pretty bad. Out of the their bullpen
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: usage isn't terrible uh. Recently, it's not too bad Kansas
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: City's isn't that battle. The use five relief pitchers yesterday,
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: but the number of pitches wasn't that heavy.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: But it does look like they're gonna have.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: To use a couple of their relievers that they used
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: yesterday potentially in this game. But the starting pitching matchup
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: again is two good rookie pitchers. Noah Cameron of course
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Royals because he's the only pitcher they
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: have who qualifies for that distinction. Two point five to
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: three ERA this year, one point seven whip.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: He's been good.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: And then we have I think was it Uzak who
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: said that you batted against him in high school or something,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: which is pretty cool. On Noah Cameron again, he's having
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: a really good season. He's actually been even better on
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: the road, even though his home stadium is pitcher friendly
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: two point one to one ERA on the road really good.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: He's been pitching well most of the season, and most
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: of his worst starts have been against stronger offenses, though
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: his last start wasn't particularly good against Texas, where he
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: didn't last five innings. In that one walk three guys
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: give up two earned runs, which isn't too bad, but
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: his start was a little bit shaky. I'm a little
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: bit worried about him right now, even though his ERA
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: this month is two point eighty six, which is obviously good,
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: but face three bad offenses in a row. Although he
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: did okay against Minnesota and the White Sox, his other
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: if he start was against Toronto earlier this month, so
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: again that was a better offense than he faced. But
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: he does have a twelve to eight strike a walk
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: ratio this month, with the walk number having increased in
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: his last three starts multiple walks in each one, so
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: that does worry me a little bit, and his strikeout
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: rate has gone down. He's not really like a huge
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher, but he's basically he's made his way this
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: year by not putting many men on base, so he
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: needs to overcome that, obviously, But surprisingly against the White
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Sox his numbers are actually not good, although it's a
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: small sample size, twenty four at bats to two strike
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio, two ninety two batting average allowed in
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: a somewhat high seven to sixty three oh ps. So Cameron,
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm not gonna say he's gonna do bad in
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: this game, but the White Sox did just see him,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: and yes, he held them to one ear and run
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: in five and to third innings where they did get
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: six hits, two walks, only had two strikeouts, so it
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: wasn't really a start where he was at his best.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: And that's basically where all those numbers come from that
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: one start. So yeah, the start doesn't look that bad
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: because they only gave him one ear and run, but
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: they actually did hit him pretty well in that game,
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: and he got maybe a little bit lucky getting out
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: of some jams there, so I worry a little bit
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: about that.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: But his ground ball rate was good in that outing.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Oh that was the best ground ball rate that he
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: had to try to get out of some jams there.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: So maybe there is a little bit of a concern
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: with Cameron with his recent form and his matchup numbers.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: Here Shane Smith pitching for the White Sox. He's also
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: a rookie. He was really good early in the season,
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: looked like he started to wear down a little bit.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: Then I think they gave him some rest or I
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: don't know if they sent him in to the minors
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: or what. But since he came back to the starting rotation,
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: he actually started pitching better again. His numbers are pretty
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: good this year four point one two ERA, one point
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: two to nine whip, I mean, not bad, especially for rookie.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: He's better at home three point eight RA at home,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: so both pitchers on the right side of their home
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: road splits this month three point five to four ERA,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: twenty one strikeouts, but ten walks and twenty to third innings,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: so the walk number is a bit too high for him.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: He's walked multiple.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Guys in three of the last four outings, so maybe
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: you do have to worry a little bit about Smith.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: He did allow fourign runs last time, but he did
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: make it six innings against land On. White Sox have
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: lost his last three outings, but he didn't really pitch
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: that badly in most of them, and of course the
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: last outing that he had I gave out the White
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Sox first five innings there because I had Smith to
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: outpitch Bryce Elder, which of course he did because Elder
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: is so bad, and then the White Sox wound up
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: losing the game. Anyway, one thing to maybe worry about
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: about Smith though, is that for the first time he
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: threw over one hundred pitches in that game. So they
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: might have overextended him a little bit, so he might
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: be a little bit worn out coming into this. And
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: then the other thing you have to worry about is,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: even though Kansas City is not a very good offense,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Smith actually doesn't have good numbers against So I know,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: it's a small fifteen at bad sample size, but a
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: three to three strike a walk ratio three thirty three
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: average allowed eight forty four ohps.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: So you do have to worry a little bit about
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Smith's numbers against KC.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: That all came from I believe one start that didn't
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: really look that bad when you look at it, where
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: he went five innings, gave up five hits and three
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: walks though, which is not great tour and runs allow
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: wasn't too bad. But his numbers, you know, looking at
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: his offensive number, the offensive numbers against him specifically, they're
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: not particularly good. So that's my hesitation here, man, is
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers with both of these starters not great.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: And these starters don't have that advantage anymore where they're
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to the opposing hitters because the hitters.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Have seen them both once.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Now that's my hesitation on the under although it probably
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: is still the right lean here, as we could see
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: the seventy three percent of tickets on the over eighty
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under total sitting at
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: eight and a half juice to the under, so we
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: do see the money coming in in the under. Again,
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna totally dis agree with it, but again
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: I worry for those reasons that I pointed out. With
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: both starting pitchers, Kansas City has dropped for minus one
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: thirty three to minus one twenty five, so Zach will
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: not like to hear that Kansas City is a public
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: road favorite here, which is usually not a good sign.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Eighty two percent of the tickets only seventy seven percent
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them, so it looks like the
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: money is coming in and kind of taking the White
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Sox as a home underdog here. I would say, if
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: you're gonna do that, you should probably do it first
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: five innings and exclude the bullpends with I know, fading
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: Noah Cameron difficult to do, so I wouldn't really want
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: to do it. But if you think the White Sox
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: with Smith, they could keep it close in the first
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: five innings, and it's sort of a situation where it's
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: like well, either team could be ahead at the end
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: of the first five. Maybe it does make sense that
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit of value grabbing. The home team
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: is the underdog there, Andrew, what's up man, Thanks for
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: hanging out. Yes, we're definitely opposed to the genocide of
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Israel here, the genocide being carried out by Israel. Pittsburgh
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: at Saint Louis. Saint Louis returning home from a road trip,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: so again, not particularly a good spot. You return over
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, you tend to not do as
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: well you come back home. You're a little bit distracted.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're facing Pittsburgh, who's the worst team in
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: your division. Might not be totally focused for that reason.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: I know Saint Louis did just lose their last two
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: games against Tampa Bay.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: But these two teams are both out of it.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: They don't have a whole lot left to play for
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: other than just playing for divisional pride, I guess, and
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: maybe potentially trying to not be in last place. So
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh is almost still guaranteed last place here. But
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's won four games in a row, Man, so they're
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: not playing too badly right now. Two shutouts in the
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: last three games, but it was against Colorado at home,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: so you got to dial it back a little bit
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: because we know how bad Colorado is on the road.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh is coming in with momentum, though They're starting
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: a road trip on a nice wind streak, so a
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: lot of times those teams will be a little bit focused.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: I don't think the Pittsburgh has the starting pitching edge
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: of this game though, and I do think Saint Louis
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: actually does have a bullpen edge of the pittsm didn't
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: use much of their bullpen, yes only two relievers. Saint
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: Louis didn't play the day before yesterday, they had a
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: weird off Dan Saturday, so Saint Louis pretty good rest
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: scenario for their bullpen as well. And Saint Louis has
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: the better offense because Pittsburgh is just that bad, even
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: though Saint Louis has been pretty bad recently as well.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis, you gotta give them the bullpen edge, the
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: hitting edge, and I think they probably have the starting
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: pitching edge as well. Pittsburgh has Johann Oviedo pitching, and
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: he I believe, is basically a converted reliever He's not
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: really that young at this point.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: He's a big dude six six two seventy five. Yeah,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: he's he's a hefty dude man.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Four point five r this year, one point three to
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: three whip, so his number is not exactly great. He
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: doesn't have any road games yet this season, so actually
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: he's only made two appearances so far.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: They were both at home.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: His last auting was a good start, go figure against Toronto,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: went five innings, picked up a win, allowed one or
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: run on two hits, six strikeouts one. Was that a
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: flash in the pan, though, I don't really know, because
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: ovi Eedo's numbers over his career nowhere near as good
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: as that, going all the way back to twenty twenty.
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: And actually I'm a little bit wrong.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: He actually was.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: He was a reliever back with Saint Louis, and then
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: he actually became a starter, more so with Pittsburgh. Though
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: he was a starter initially with Saint Louis, they moved
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: him to the bullpen.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Looks like they.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Traded them away, and then Pittsburgh has mostly had him
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: as a starter the whole time, or they have had
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: him as a starter the whole time, so interesting, So
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: that means His other outing this year was a start,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: but it was like an opener type of star and
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: he wasn't good in that when he walked three guys
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: to give up to its in one inning, got really
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: lucky it only allowed touring runs there. He actually struck
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: out all the All of the outs that he got
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: were by way of the K three strikeouts, so he
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: kind of got himself out.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Of that jam in that game. Very very strange.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: But his numbers over his career are not great, so
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: I don't really they're basically in line with what his
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: stats are this season, so I don't expect him to
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: do that well. He is here facing his former team THO,
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: although I guess would be he's already faced them before
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: because he's been with Pittsburgh for a couple of years
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: now and he stayed in the same division. His numbers
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: against Saint Louis are decent, though in forty seven at
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: bats two fifty five batting average allowed seven oh one
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: ops eight to six strike a walk ratio is not
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: that good, but his other numbers are fairly good, so
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: it is certainly possible, especially with Saint Louis struggling offensively,
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: that OVI EIGHTO might actually pitch fairly well in this game,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: but I'm not really trusting him to go terribly deep
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: into these outings. I don't think he's that trustworthy. On
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals, I believe this might be
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: his rookie season.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: He's young.
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: He's pitched pretty well overall four point two six ERA,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: one point one to eight WHIP, although he's had really,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: really really ugly starts, and he's had some really good starts,
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: and he's been worse at home with a five point
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: one eighty R at home, so you don't have to
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: worry about that. This month, he's pitched well though, with
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: a fourteen to two strike a walk ratio, has done
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: six innings in every single outing, picked up a win
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: three of the four, and his team only lost by
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: one run in the other game. It was to Colorado, though,
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: but he didn't pitch four or land in that game.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Three point three to eighty RA this month, so McGreevy
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: is pitching well this month, including a six inning shutout
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: against the Cobs, so that's obviously a good sign. He
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: was able to pitch well against a good lineup, so
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: he's in good form right now and obviously Pittsburgh is
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: a bad lineup. Pittsburgh not a big sample size, but
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: they're one for seven often with no extra base hits,
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: no walks, three strikeouts, so he has done well against them.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: So I think you still have to give the edge
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: to McGreevy in this one. The money seems to be
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: fading Saint Louis though, because again they are returning home
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, they might not totally focus on Pittsburgh,
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: so the situation is not that great for Saint Louis.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: So for that reason alone, even though I think the
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: matchup is kind of in their favor, I think you
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: have to dial it back on that and probably avoid
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: playing Saint Louis. Here seventy percent of tickets, only sixty
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash on them. They're down for
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty seven of minus one twenty six on
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: the money line, so the money kind of coming in
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: against them, but the money seems to be signaling on
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: the under eighty three percent of tickets on the over
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: eighty seven percent of the cash on the under.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with this. I've you want to
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: try to avoid if you want.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: To try to avoid the bullpens you could go first
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: five innings here, though you might not be able to
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: find a good number on.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: That full game.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: At least you're getting a decent Saint Louis bullpen and
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: you're getting two really bad offenses, so I think you're
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: all right maybe going full game on this. You gotta
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: maybe worry about Oviado because he's so unpredictable. But the
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: total has dropped all the way from eight juice to
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: the over to seven and a half juice to the over.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: You could still probably find a first five under under
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: the four if you really want to do that that way,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: but I think some form of under in that game
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: is probably the better way to look there.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Oh man, this is taken forever. Man. I got my
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: best bets to still go.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: To with four of them, although two of them I
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: think are games that I still haven't even talked about yet,
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: so we'll get to those. Anaheim is at Texas for
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Andrew here. Anaheim going to Texas. Texas is a home
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: with a nice little uh run. Here with two shutouts
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: in a row to complete a sweep of Cleveland.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: We know Cleveland's not very good.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: Texas is pulled into a five hundred record.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: Again, it's sixty six and sixty six. That's not exactly good,
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: that's evil.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: So they're probably gonna want to get off of that record,
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: which they will regardless of what happens in this game.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: But I guess they probably want to win, so they
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: make it sixty seven sixty six instead of six six
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: sixt seven, you know what I mean.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: So the loss would make their record look more evil.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: So maybe that's a motivator.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: Who knows.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: Although the Rangers they're now without Semi and he has
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: an injured foot and it looks like he might be
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: out for the season.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Texas, I think they're still playing like they're still in
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: it here.
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: Anaheim knows that they're out of it now. Texas might
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: have a little bit more motivation for that reason. Though
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: it's a divisional matchups to Anaheim probably will show up
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: as well. Texas generally, I mean, we know they have
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here. I mean, that's obvious. Texas has
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: the better pitching. They're one of the best pitching teams
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: in all of baseball. They have a nice bullpen rest
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: as well. Right now, they have one of the more
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: rested bullpens in all baseball. Over the last few days,
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: Anaheim definitely does not. Anaheim use five relief pitchers yesterday
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: and their bullpen is worse, so Texas has a pretty
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: clear bullpen edge year. The travel edge is in their
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: favor as well as they're staying at home.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's coming in from home.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: They lost, They got swept in a series by the Cubs,
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: so maybe they'll actually show up focused here.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Get out a home go on the road could be
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: a focus spot for them as well.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: When you start a road trip, yeah, I mean more
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: often than that you do tend to be focused. So
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: it's not a terrible spot, but they are having to
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: travel and change time zones here for Anaheim. As far
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: as the starting pitching is concerned, Jose Soriano, I mean,
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: he's obviously the lesser of these two pitchers for Anaheim here.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: He's got a four ERA one point three to eight
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: whip is definitely not good.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: It's too high.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: He actually is better on the road though, the two
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: point eight to nine road ERA for whatever reason. But
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: this month he has not been pitching that well six
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: point eight to ninety RA. He's allowed five or more
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: and runs in two outings. Although maybe you give him
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: a pass for the most recent one because it was
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: at that a's really hit her friendly stadium, and he
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: gave up three bombs in that one, so maybe you
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: give him a pass for that one, after he shut
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: out the Dodgers for six innings to start prior to that.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: Soriano is really really hard to predict, man. He is
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: so all over the place. I had a really bad
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: start at home against Tampa to start before that. He's
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: almost impossible to figure out. Man. It's really difficult to
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: put your money on a Soriano game because you just
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: don't know what to expect. He could be really good,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: he could be really awful, no clue. The range of
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: possibilities is insane. He is facing a weak Texas offense here,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: and his numbers are really good against them. In sixty
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: two career at bats, one ninety four batting average allowed
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: five ninety two ops, fifteen to eight strike a walk
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: ratio against them.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Which isn't that good. Too many walks.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: But other than that, his numbers are good against Texas.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: We know Texas offense is beat especially at home. We
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: know this is a pitcher friendly park and Texas has
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: Jacob de Gram pitching, and we know he's been really
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: good this year, even though he's an old man at
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: this point age of thirty seven. He's having a great
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: season though, two point seven to six ERA, point nine
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: to three whip excellent, Whip sub one. He's actually really
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: good at home as well, two point one to one
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: ERA at home this month, he's been a little bit
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: worse four point three two ERA because he had one
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: kind of inexplicably bad start against Seattle and then he
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: bounced back really nicely in his last two starts thirteen
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: to one, strike a walk race.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Youre three on runs all out over.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: The last eleven to two thirds his last two starts,
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: but his team lost both of those starts after he
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: had two shaky starts to the two starts prior to that.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: His team's actually lost six of his last seven starts,
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: and most of it is because the run support just
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: isn't there. De gram has pitched pretty well for the
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: most part, and Texas just can't score for him.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: Prior to those two bad starts, he'd actually only allowed
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: more than three or runs one other time all season.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: Maybe because he's old, he is starting to tire out
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but I mean, he's de Grom he's
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: such a veteran man. He's used to pitching a lot
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: of innings in, you know, over the course of the season.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Texas.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: I mean they're bullpen. I mean they're pitching. Coaching is
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: really good.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: And you know they.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: Usually work their bullpen in pretty well as well. So
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: I think we'll be all right. You know, if we're
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: looking for de Grom to pitch pretty well, I.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Think it is likely to happen.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: But I do have a little bit of a hesitation
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: because his numbers against Anaheimer not awful, but not as
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: good as you would think. Forty five at bats, fourteen
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: to four strike a walk ratio, and this is without
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: uh I don't know, this is against Anaheim. Excuse Anaeim
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: does have the better offense, excuse me, but he's a
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: lot of two sixty seven average. I'm eight to sixty
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: ops against them. So Anaheim, the one real advantage they
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: have in this game is they have the better hitting.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: But and de Grom does have bad numbers against them,
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: but two of the home runs are from Darna. A
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: lot of the other guys haven't done a whole lot
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: of damage against them, So I'm not really about to
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: say that de Gram is gonna pitch poorly in this game.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: I think the way to look at this game you
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: probably have to look to an under.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: The total is really low.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: It's seven and a half uh seventy seven percent of
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: tickets in the over, fifty five percent of the cash
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: on the over.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: So the money's easily agreeing on the under here.
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: If you wanted to go first five, I don't think
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: you'd be able to find an under four. You'd have
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: to go under three and a half. There you could
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: factor in the bullpens. You have one bad bullpend with
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Anaheim you have to deal with. But I think Soriano
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: his matchup numbers are good. We're looking at a weak
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: Texas offense here, so you might see this game go under.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: The odds makers seem to be expecting a low scoring game.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Texas is down for minus one seventy seven to minus
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: one seventy on the Monday line, eighty four percent of tickets,
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: eighty five percent of.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: The cash on them. So I guess do what you
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: will with that info.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: But I think maybe looking towards the under is actually
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: the better way to play that game. San Diego, Seattle,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a play on that one, and I'm
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: gonna have a play on Cincinnati and Dodgers as well,
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: which I almost made that one the title of the show.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: I was like, which one of these games seems like
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: a better matchup? I was probably San Diego Seattle because
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: they're both more in the thick of it than Cincinnati
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: is at this point.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: But we do also have a game here.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: Detroit is having to play at this ridiculous A's stadium,
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: So this is gonna be weird because you have the
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: best pitcher in baseball pitching for Detroit here at the
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: worst pitching stadium in baseball. Which one is gonna win out?
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe the better pitching. I think the better pitching probably
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: will win out, but maybe not. The A's are returning
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: on from a road trip. They went to Minnesota and
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: then Seattle. A's are just kind of playing out the stretch.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Here, man. I mean, they know they're not going anywhere.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Detroit is at least still playing for playoff positioning, so
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: Detroit might have a little bit more motivation for that reason,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: as returning on from a road trip again tends to
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: be a bit of a distracted spot. But when you
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: have a good team like Detroit coming in maybe you
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: won't be totally distracted. The A's have the better offense
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: of the two. Detroit has the better bullpen of the two.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Are the A's only these two relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: their bullpen's in decent shape. At least Detroit used four,
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: so Detroit's bullpen a little bit less rested. But I
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: think their bullpen's better enough than the A's bullpen that
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: maybe you give them an edge here still, And with
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: school ball, like I mentioned on the mount, for Detroit,
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: they might not have to use a whole lot of
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: their bullpend here. Obviously, he's been really good this season
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: two point three two ERA, point eight seven whip.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: He's been a.
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: Little bit better on the road, although his home road
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: splits are really really insignificant. His team has won all
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: four of his starts this month, even one where he
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: didn't make it five innings against Anaheim. Other than that,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: he's allowed three or few earned runs and got seven
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: innings in the other three starts this month. Three point
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: five one ERA this month a little bit higher than
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: what you're used to with him, but it's a long season, man.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: He's still pitching well.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: Twenty nine to six strike a walk, ratio this month
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: quite good, double digit strikeouts in two of the three outings,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: so that's all good, but his numbers against the A's
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: are actually not that good. In fifty one at bats,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: does have a seventeen to two strike a walk ratio
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: is very good, but two ninety four batting average allot
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: eight thirty one ohps. So he actually hasn't done that
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: well against the A's and one of his weaker starts
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: this year was actually against the A's in Detroit. He
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: did go six innings with eight strikeouts one walk, so
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: it wasn't.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: As bad as it looked.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: He gave up four and runs, but it was because
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: he gave up two home runs, so maybe he got
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: a little bit unlucky. But in this a stadium, maybe
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: he will actually give up some home runs because Schoolble,
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: we know he throws hard, so if people make contact
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: with him, they might be able.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: To launch some of these things here.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: And Schoolble is not really much of a ground ball pitcher,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: so he's more of a strikeout pitcher obviously, so maybe
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: he'll struggle a little bit in this one. It is
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: possible he's going up against j. T. Ginn, who obviously
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: is the weaker of the two pitchers four point nine
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: to five VRRA, one point three to seven whip for
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: the A's here, six.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Point seven five RRA at home.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: So he's really struggled in this home stadium, a very
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: very hitter friendly park. This month, he's been pretty awful.
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: He's only gone five innings once in four starts this month.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: Seven point eight eight ERA, nineteen to ten strike a
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, pretty bag. Pretty bad numbers here for again
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: this month, so he's not pitching well against Detroit. He
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: has really bad numbers too, although it's a small twenty
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: six at bad sample size three eighty five, batting average
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: around oneenty twenty three oh ps, so I'm not expecting
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: him to do particularly well here either. He did face
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: Detroit earlier this year and he only lasted two winnings,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: gave up a couple of runs, not a whole lot
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: you can really take away from that. That was in
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: that series at Detroit. So what are we expecting in
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: this game? I mean, as crazy as it might sound,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: I'm almost thinking that an over might actually make sense.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Series.
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: Schoolball doesn't exactly have his greatest numbers against the A's.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: It's a bad stadium.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: The totals a little bit lower than it usually is
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: because schoolbl is on the mound. It's up to nine
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: though sixty eight percent of tickets on the over fifty
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: four percent of the catch on the under. Of course,
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: what you could do is also maybe avoid the schooble
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: part of the equation, because he could potentially pitch really
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: well and just go with Detroit to score over their
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: team total and just you know, just beat Gin and
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: the A's bullpen. That might be the actual approach here
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: Detroit over their team total.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: Maybe that makes sense.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: Money's coming in against Detroit though they're down for minus
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: two hundred to minus one eighty three, eighty one percent
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: of tickets on them and only sixty three percent of
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. So oddly enough, the money is
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: fading Detroit. Though a lot of that I think it
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: is just because of the price. Detroit is just favored
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: by favor too heavily in this game, I think, based
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: on what the professionals think. So do with all that
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: information what you will.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: That was the rundown. Let's get to the best bets.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Man. I always forget to put the graphic up. I
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: got my toed chat GPT graphics here.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the best bets.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: Man. Hopefully this doesn't take too long, but we got
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: four best bets here, the first one up.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: You know what I'm doing here, Man, We're.
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: Gonna fade my bust in Red Sox even when we're
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: in my Red Sox hat. Here we're gonna take the
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Orioles on the money line. And yes, I know the
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have the better bullpen and the Red Sox
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: do have the better offense, although I'll fade the better
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: offense like I'll probably fade the better offense more often
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: than that I do anything else, to be honest, But
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: in this game, first of all, I think it's a
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: terrible spot for the Red Sox.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: We know they're coming off.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Of that huge series against the Yankees and they played
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: in the Sunday night game. They won the series against
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, won three out of four, and they lost
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: last night to lose the win streak that they have,
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: which I think all of that is gonna.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: Hang them over to this game.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: Not only that, but they have less of a turnaround
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: Dimier because they played Sunday night and again, that's a
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: huge game. Mean, it's the biggest rivalry in baseball, playing
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, You're playing on ESPN Sunday night. Everything about
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: that is huge. And now you're going to play Baltimore. Yes,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: I know, Baltimore did just sweep the Red Sox in Fenway,
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: so the Red Sox might want to try to get
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: back up them for that, but I don't think this
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: is the spot to do it. That series, I think
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: was just huge. It took a lot out of the
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, and the Red Sox are going with a
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: bullpen game in this game, which makes this even worse
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: for the Red Sox. So I know, sometimes bullpen games
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: actually work out well because the manager can kind of
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: use the correct relievers, but I don't like it in
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: this spot, man, Even though I know the Red Sox
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: kind of saved their bullpen yesterday by using Walker Bueller
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen. But the weirdest thing is that
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: Bernardino pitched out of the bullpen last night. I don't
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: though he hadn't pitched in like four days. He threw eighteen.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: Pitches last night. But he's gonna be the opener tonight
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: as well.
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: So he pitched last night and he's gonna pitch one
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: inning to start the game tonight, and then Dick Fits
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Is gonna come into the game and probably pitch about
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: three or four innings. So Fits is gonna be the follower.
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get a Dick Follower in this matchup here.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: I don't like that combo, man, I'm sorry, I don't
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: like it. Even though the Red Sox, yes they have
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen, Baltimore's bullpen is pretty rested. At least
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: they only used two relievers yesterday, including Keegan Aiken, who
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: was more of a longer relief type of guy.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Baltimore.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: I know they don't have the better offense either, but
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: this is just a bad spot for the Red Sox.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: I think the starting pitching you have to give the
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: edge to Baltimore. Here again, Bernardino will be throwing one
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: inning in the one. Yes, he has good numbers, two
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: point nine three e R, a one point two whip whatever.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: He's got a three e R on the road, so
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: very similar to his home era. He did just face
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: Baltimore two outings to go on the nineteenth, so Baltimore
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: is recently familiar with him. He did have one shutout
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: inning against him with no strikeouts.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Didn't put anybody on base either.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: His numbers are good in twenty five at bats versus
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: the Oriole seven strikeouts, one walk, two forty average allowed,
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: six sixty nine oh ps. But again, you're only gonna
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: get one inning out of him, and then it's gonna
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: give way to Fits. Like I said, who might give
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: us fits as Red Sox fans here, But at least
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: I'll give out a play against the Red Sox to
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: hedge my uh my emotion. Fits has not been that
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: good this year. He's a young guy. He does have
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: some upside, but four point eight three e r a
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: one point three two whip not very good. He has
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: been better on the road though, three point nine one
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: e R in the road, so maybe he'll actually do
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit better here. But this past the past
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: month in July, he hasn't pitched its July in the majors.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: I think they might have sent him to the miners.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: He didn't do well in July.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: He failed to go five innings in three of the
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: four outings five point zero six the ra thirteen to five.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: Strike a walk ratio that wasn't good.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: Maybe the pressure is off him a little bit coming
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: in as a follower, but you're probably only only gonna
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: get about three innings out of him in this game,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: So Baltimore, they might have their bullpen, like their bullpen
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: might still not be in the game by the time
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: Fits is even out of this game. Sugano is pitching
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: for Baltimore and his season has been up and down,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: but he's pitched better again.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Recently.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point nine to seven e RA
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: one point two to seven whip. I know, the whip
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: isn't that great, very very slightly better at home with
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: those numbers are almost the same. He started off the
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: season really well because well he's new to the major
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: so you kind of expect that, well, maybe he'll have
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: like some period where he has to adapt to pitching
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: in the majors. But also the hitters had to kind
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: of figure him out. So even though he's not like
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: a hard thrower or anything like that, the hitters couldn't
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: really figure him out. But then I think once hitters
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: started figuring him out, he actually had a couple of
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: really bad months after he was good the first couple
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: of months, he was really bad in the middle of
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: the summer, But this past month he's been pretty good again.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: In four starts Baltimore's won all four. They've actually won
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: his last five starts two point zero one array this
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: month at a fourteen to four strike out walk ratio, so
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: he's not putting guys on base again. Last three outings
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: he only allowed torn runs combined.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: Including his last time out.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: Yes, the Red Sox did just see him, but he
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: shut them out, or he didn't shut them out. He
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: went five innings to give up one unearned run against them,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: and the Orioles wound up winning the game an extra
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: innings because the Red Sox. I believe that was the
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: game where Low, the newcomer to the Red Sox, hit
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: a two run homer in the bottom of the ninth
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: to send it to extras and then they lost anyway.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: Sugano didn't walk anybody in that start, had three strikeouts. Yes,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox did just see him, but the Orioles
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: are also fairly recently familiar with the Red Sox pitching,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: I would say, at least and suganum his numbers are
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: fairly good against the Red Sox. One at bats it's
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: mostly just that one outing, but six hits, no extra
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: base hits, two strikeouts, no walks, two eighty six batting
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: average five to seventy one ohps, so he does have
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: good numbers against them. So yeah, given that, and especially
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: given the situation, I think the situation is what puts
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: us over the edge.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: The Orioles in this game. And I know we went
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: with the Oriols yesterday too and they got it done
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: for us. But sometimes they'll be on the same team
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: two days in a row, man, like I did I
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: did with Houston against Baltimore. Let me just see when
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: the last time Fits faced Baltimore was. I guess it
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: wasn't recently, it wasn't this year, But whatever, we're gonna
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: go with Baltimore here.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: The public is somewhat on the Red Sox fifty nine
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, only fifty five percent of the cash.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Red Sox against the last place Orioles
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: like this, after what the everybody saw the Red Sox
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: do really well against the Yankees over the weekend, so
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: the public, you know, they're gonna be on the Red
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: Sox side. Even despite losing last night. Red Sox are
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: up for minus one fifteen minutes one sixteen, But you're
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: getting Baltimore in a better bought as the home underdog.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: Here man Cash seems to be kind of agreeing with
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: the Baltimore side. That is the play in that first
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: game Baltimore plus money there. Next up is a full
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: game under in Minnesota Toronto, And I know Minnesota's bullpen
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: isn't very good.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: I get it. You don't usually want to include Minnesota's
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: bullpen into an equation like this.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: Actually, both bullpens are bad, but the issue that I well,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: Toronto's isn't great at least. But the problem that I
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: have with that is I couldn't find a good number
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: for the first force.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: I was like, I guess we'll go full game on this.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: Toronto's bullpen is at least pretty rested, as they basically
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: just used long relief guys yesterday for the most part,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: mostly Rodriguez, so I'm okay with that. Minnesota's bullpend they
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: basically use nobody, so almost all of their bullpend didn't
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: pitch the last two days as they used Hatch one
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: dime and then they used all yesterday.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: So Minnesota used long relief.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: Guys in both outings, so all their best relievers. I
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: don't know what the hell in name like Genesis is
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: doing it in their bullpen. By the way, isn't that
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: a that guy sounds like a female stripper, dude. I
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: don't know what's going on with that, But Minnesota does
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: have their better relievers available, so I'm more okay with
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: doing this the full game under here. Again, if you
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: find a first five under to go under four, you
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: could definitely do it that way as well. You know me,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: I don't like going the under three and a half though,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: but this looks like an under to mean we have
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: two starters who've been really good throughout their careers. So
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: the whole pier is also that the starters will get
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: us deeper, which I'm gonna give out a first four
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: a first five under. Excuse him with my last player
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: of the day, and that one. You have pictures that
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: might actually not last as long as I think these
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: pitchers probably will in this one, because this one you
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: got veteran pitchers. Man, We're used to pitching long periods
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: of time. And by the way, yes, obviously Toronto has
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: the better offense of these two teams, but the better
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher is going for Minnesota. I would say he's
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: the better of the two at this point. Joe Ryan
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: two point nine to six ERA point nine to five whip.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: Great season for him. Maybe he'll step it up to
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: face Toronto here, which, by the way, as far as
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: the situation is concerned, Toronto is returning on from a
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: road trip where they went to Pittsburgh and Miami. So again,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: sometimes the teams are turned on from road trips. Playing
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: a bad team like Minnesota, you could be a little
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: bit distracted and that distraction could definitely affect the hitting.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: So that's another.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: Reason why we were going under here. I think you
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: could see some distracted hitting on the side of the
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: better offense here. With just Toronto Minnesota, I mean, they're
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be focused because they've been playing bad baseball.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: They've lost five of their last six games. You lose
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: to the A's and then to the White Sox, I
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: think you're gonna want to step it up at least.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're still playing for some semwhats of pride
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: here and you're playing one of the teams that's gonna
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs, most likely in Toronto, so it's a
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: big game from Minnesota. So I do think they will
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: show up with focus here. So I think the spot
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: is a little bit better from Minnesota. But Joe Ryan
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: pitching again. He's actually better on the road as well.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: Two point four to four ERA on the road. Yeah,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: he had a bad outing last time out against the A's.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: He gave up five and runs of four innings, but
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: he got a little bit unlucky because he did still
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: have a six to one strike a walk ratio in
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: that outing, so it's command was still on point.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: Did you give up seven hits?
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: A's are a pretty good offense, probably actually better than
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: Toronto's offense. The A's fifth in ops. Actually Toronto's is fourth,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: so never mind. I was man anyway, Yeah, I thought
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: Toronto was down more like eighth or ninth, but whatever. Anyway,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: I think Ryan will bounce back from that. Though generally
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: he's been pitching well. He has a three point seven
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: to forty RA this month, including a good start at
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, so he was coming off that game, so
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: I think maybe he was in a little bit of
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot as well. Pitching really well against the Yankees,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: he just wasn't as focused against the A's.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: He might refocus here to face Toronto. Man, he still
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: does have.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: A twenty two to four strike at walk ratio over
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: the past month, which is good. In August, I mean
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: against Toronto. His numbers are good as well. Even though
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: they've seen him for ninety one at bats twenty four
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: to six strike at walk ratio. He's only allowed one
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: home run to France. He selled him to a forty
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: two average, six twenty nine ops and a good strike
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: at walk ratio. Like I said, it's a Ryan. He
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: does have good numbers against Toronto, and he's going up
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: against the old guy, Max Schurzer, who is still pitching
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: pretty well right now. Man three point six ERA, one
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: point oh eight whip. He's talented and he's doing it.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: He has the exact Samevira home in a way.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: This month.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: He has a one point eight ERA, a few too
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: many walks, seventeen to seven strike a walk ratio, so
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: he's walked too many. But he's allowed two or fewer
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: earned runs in every outing this month. He's gone six
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: or more innings in all but one start, going all
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: the way back into earlier July. This month, he also
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: faced the Cubs and the Dodgers and only allowed three
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: earned runs up across thirteen innings combined in those two starts.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Including a road start against the Dodgers. So yeah, Sureser
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: is in good form right now. We know in Minnesota's
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: offense isn't that good, and they actually haven't faced him
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: that much, but they're only three for twenty four off him,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, two walks, one twenty five average allowed in
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: three fifty nine ohps.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: So Schurzer looks like.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: He even has the better matchup numbers here. So I'm
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: expect a pitching duel, especially early in this game. But again,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: I think you probably have to go under the full game.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: At this point, you could probably still find the eight.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: I would probably go up to maybe about minus one
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: twenty to get under the eight. You could go under
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. I mean seven is really the
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: key number, not eight. So if you want to go
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: under the seven and a half full game, I think
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: you could do that. Fifty three percent of tickets on
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: the over ninety eight percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: You get a better price by going under the seven
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: and a half. You want to do it that way.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: Money's coming in on Toronto up for minus one thirty
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: eight to minus one forty, and at least you could
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: argue they do have more motivation because they're still playing
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: for something seventy six percent of tickets ninety six percent
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Toronto. I don't love the return
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: home spot and whatever though, so again I think under
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: is the way to look at this. Total Again already
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: dropped from eight juice to the over all the way
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: down to where it is now, so the money is
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: coming into the under. I agree with it. So the
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: money is agreeing with me on both of those first two.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: It might be agreeing with me on all four of
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: these plays. Actually I like all four, so we're going
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: with that. And again, you could go first five innings
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: on this too if you really want to, which I
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: think would not be a terrible idea either. But the
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: bullbend rest scenario also kind of helps me just be like,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: and the fact that the starters are such veterans and
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: can get deep into games, they're just like, okay, we'll
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: go full game on that one.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: Next up.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: The other side that I have is the Seattle Mariners
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: money line minus one thirty. I like how this sets
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: up for Seattle here against San Diego. Man Seattle's got
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent tickets eighty.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: Nine percent of the cash on them.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: Although you might be able to get a better price
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: on this because they've dropped for minus one twenty two
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: to minus one twenty now, so you might be able
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: to find a better money line price on this. I
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: know we're paying a little bit for a couple of these,
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: although I did yesterday as well. But I like how
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: the spot sets up for Seattle here, man. And first
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: of all, they're facing San Diego. I know this is
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: a big game, which is why I put it in
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: the title. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning Mariners
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: fighting at the very least for a wildcard spot, but
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: they could still win their division. San Diego trying to
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: win their division. But one thing that you got to
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: look at here is San Diego is not very good
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: on the road, even though they were overall records really good,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: they're really good at home, and they're below five hundred
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: on the road, thirty one and thirty five, and Seattle
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: is way better at home. They're thirty nine and twenty
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: six at home. Basically every one of their pitchers pitch
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: is better at home. So you're looking at that. You
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: gotta take that into account, man. I think the public
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: is kind of gonna be on the San Diego hype
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: train again here, man, because San Diego has been hot again,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: and they just won a series against the Dodgers of
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: over the weekend after winning three out of four against
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, so.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: They were on a hot streak.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: But this is one reason why I'm gonna fade San
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: Diego here because they just lost a five game win streak.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: And you know, I always say when you lose win
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: a win streak like this, it can hang you over
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: to the next game and you just face the Dodgers, man.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the biggest series that San Diego could
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: possibly have right they were hosting the Dodgers. They won
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: the series, they lost the big game yesterday. They're tied
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: in the NL West. I know they both teams have
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: to keep winning here, but that was a huge series.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: And now you're starting a road trip. I know a
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: lot of time when a team starts a road trip,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: they will be focused. But how can you be focused
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: off of that huge series against your biggest division rival?
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: Basically what is determining who wins your division? And then
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: you go and you have an interleague game flying all
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: the way up to the Pacific Northwest here yees, staying
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: in the same time zone, but I don't like it man,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: and Seattle actually isn't even traveling. Seattle's staying at home
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: and they just had an easy series against the A's,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: So I think Seattle the spot sets up way better
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: for them, and they're right in the thick of it,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: like I said, so, they're still playing with a lot
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: of motivation as well here, so I like how that
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: sets up the bullpen scenario. Yes, san Diego does have
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: the better bullpenal though Seattle's isn't that much worse. San
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: Diego used three relief pitchers yesterday, Seattle used twos, so
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: Seattle's is pretty well rested, so I think that's fine.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, yes, Seattle, again, they do have the worst
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: of the two bullpens. We know San Diego actually has
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: the best bullpenning. I ran all the baseball Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: Seattle's isn't too bad though they're twelveth I mean they're
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: fine bullpen wise, and then hitting, San Diego actually is
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: at a disadvantage offensively. They're only twentieth offensively in ops
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: and Seattle is up at twelve. So Seattle does have
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: an edge offensively here. But I'm gonna give Seattle the
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: edge with the starting pitching, which is where I think
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: we might find some value here. Mark, what's up man, Well,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't say the Padres are sitting pretty because they're
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: tied with the Dodgers.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: They don't have any padding there.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: But basically, like I agree with you, though, like what
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: we're saying is basically san Diego's got to feel really
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: really happy about beating the Dodgers in that series, even
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: though they lost the last game, They're feeling probably pretty
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: good about themselves after that. That was a huge series
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: for them. This series maybe less so. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: we're definitely agreeing on the Seattle side here and the
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: starting pitching. I think if the public's gonna look at
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: this and might think that Seattle's starting pitcher is actually
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: worse because he has the worst ERA, but he is
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: not the worst of the two starting pitchers.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: And by the way, Seattle has a lot.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: Of film familiarity with San Diego starting pitcher, even though yes,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: when we look into it, he actually does have good
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: numbers against Seattle, but it's JP Sears and he was
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: in Seattle's division up until the trade deadline. He was
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: on the A's So Seattle is very familiar with JP Sears,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: so he has a familiarity disadvantage here because the hitters
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: have seen a bunch of them. He's been okay this
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: year four point nine to one point two to nine whip.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: And I know he was pitching in the A's stadium
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: in Sacramento, which is a very hitter friendly park, So
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: I think that was skewing his numbers. Yes, I do
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: think Sears is better than his numbers look, but he
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that much better on the road, only slightly
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: better four point eight to seven YARRA On the road,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: he's been mediocre since being acquired by San Diego six
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: to two strikeout walk ratio got lit up at Arizona
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: for five and runs, and then he had one good
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: start against San Francisco, who is a bad offense. So
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: Arizona is a good offense, San Francisco is a bad offense.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: Seattle is in between the two as far as how
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: good their offense is.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: But overall, Sears.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: Four point nine to one RA over that span not terrific.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: And again now he's going up against Seattle, who has
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: seen a bunch of them one hundred and sixteen at
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: bats against him. Yes, he has held him to a
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: very low one seventy two batting average. I get it,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: five point fifty five ops. Again, I understand he's held
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: him to really low numbers. But his strikeout walk race
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: HUO isn't exactly that great against them twenty nine to thirteen,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: so he doesn't have too many walks at least against him.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: But this is about familiarity. It's about the situation. When
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: I saw this, I was like, WHOA like? Because we
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: get that familiarity edge on the side of Seattle's hitters
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: here because they are very familiar with Sears. Even though
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: I know again he has pitched well against him in
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: the past, but look at what he did the last
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: time out.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: His last start with the.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: A's was I know, in the a Stadium against Seattle,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: but he didn't do well at all. He had three walks,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: touring runs allowed, give up a homer, four and a
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: third in he's give it five hits. He put a
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: ton of guys on base. He easily could have allowed
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: more than tour and runs in that when he did
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: have six strikeouts. But he's not really a strikeout guy.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: One time he faced Seattle this year. I don't know,
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: excuse me, he faced them twice. He had a good
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: start in this ballpark to kick off the season, my mistake.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: He did pitch well the first time out, seven strikeouts,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: no walks, tour and runs, a looted sixty two thirds
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: innings pitch, but last time out didn't do as well.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: We don't need him to do as poorly as he
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: did last time out against them. We don't need him
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: to do as well. I mean, we need him to
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: do less good than he did in the first outing
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: that he had this season. But I do think that
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: his start in this game is gonna be somewhere in
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: between the two. That would be my guest. I mean,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: there's just such a scrapancy between these two stadiums. The
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: A's have like the worst pitching stadium in all the
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: baseball and Seattle has like maybe the most pitcher friendly,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: maybe beside San Diego. So there is a huge disparity there.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: But I think we have the better pitcher on the
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: side of Seattle man with Bryce Millery as a five
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: point eight to seven e RA one point five to
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: one whip. Yeah, I'm gonna show you his numbers against
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: the Padres in a second.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: The pods. They're pod people.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: Fathers Bryce Miller. I know his numbers look terrible. They
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: look terrible this year, but look at his career numbers.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: Man three point eight seven e RA one point one
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: to one whip. He was really good last year in
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: his second season ever in the Major's two point nine
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: four ERA point nine to eight whip.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: He's trying to come back from.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: Injury, and I know there are a lot of things
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: involved in that, but he's nowhere near as bad as
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: his numbers make him look this year. Throughout his career,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: he's been way better. He's also been way better at
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: home throughout his career. He's still better at home this year,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: even though it's a five point one to one ERA,
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: but he definitely is better at home, so he has
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: that advantage going for him. I know he just came
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: back from injury again and he didn't do well, but
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: he had a really tough task having to pitch in
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia in his first start back from another injury, so
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give him a little.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: Bit of a pass for that.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: He actually did okay, went five innings to give up
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: four and runs, But considering the fact that he allowed
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: two home runs.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: It wasn't as bad as it looked.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: He gave up four hits, two walks, four strikeouts, wasn't
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: too bad, and I expect him to do better this
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: time out. We know Philadelphia is a good offense. Up
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: against the Padres, who are not as good of an offense.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: Excuse I just clicked on the a's by mistake here.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: Up against the Padres, his numbers are actually not that No,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: I went to the Phillies. What am I saying his
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: numbers are good against the Padres? I'm pretty sure. Yeah,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: and thirty five at bats. As Mark was just pointing out,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: they only have four hits against him lifetime, no extra
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: base hits. Their entire lineup hasn't even faced him before.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Nine strikeouts, no walks of one to fourteen, batting average
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: of two, twenty nine ops. So it was probably one
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: start that he made last year or.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: Something like that.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: But he has dominated San Diego's hitters man so and
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: a couple of these guys are on different teams as well,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: so some of those guys saw him in different matchups.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: But Miller has the way better numbers against this lineup,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: even though I know Sears does have good numbers here,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: but Miller's are even better. Although I know it's a
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: smaller sample size, I think Miller is the better pitcher anyway.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: So again, for all those reasons, we're going with Seattle
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: in that game. And then to finish it off, we're
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: going with the first five under in Red's Dodgers under
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: the four this one. We will take the bullpens out
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: of the equation. Not just because we can find an
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: under four in the first five innings here, but these bullpens, man,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, well, we don't trust the Dodgers' bullpen, and
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: I know their usage has been very weak over the
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: last couple of days, so their bullpen is pretty well rested,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: so they mostly have their best relievers available here. But
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: their bullpen's not that good. Cincinnati's isn't really that great either,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: and Cincinnati has used a lot of their bullpen over
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: the last few days, so their usage is a little
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: bit up. So I worry about the bullpens. We'll take
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: them out, and I in this game, I actually worry
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: about because we have two young pitchers. I kind of
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: worry about how deep they might go in this game,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: especially Shean for the Dodgers. So we're going first five
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: innings for that reason as well, where I think we'll
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: get the best out of these young starters here. When
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: you look at it through that lens, I think we
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: have a good starting pitching duel here. Yes, I know
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are the best offense in all of baseball.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: They're the best offense at home in all of baseball,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: runs per game wise, at least, I understand all that.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: But this game, I think pitching conquers better hitting man. Yes,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers have the better offense, but again we're gonna
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: look at the total.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: Here on the side, By the way, if you want
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: to know.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: LA down for minus one forty five to minus one
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: thirty three on the side, sixty five percent of tickets,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the cash on the Dodgers, so
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: they are taking some of the money, which I don't
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: actually agree with that. I would actually probably lean to
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati having the more proven starter at this point. So
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: maybe Cincinnati first five innings, but actually, well, the bullpen
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: kind of evens out. I would say Cincinnati generally has
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen, but with their rest disadvantage that they
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: have in the bullpen, I would probably limit it to
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: first five still with Cincinnati if you like Cincinnati.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: But we're looking at.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: The total fifty four percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: nine to nine percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: Money is coming in on the under.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: So again, I think the money agrees with us.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: On every one of these plays.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: Totals drop from eight and a half juice to the
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: over all the way down to eight juice to the under.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: So we're seeing a significant line move towards the under.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: So again, you gotta try to find this before the best.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: Numbers go away.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: Here, I might have to pay a little bit more
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: to get this thing under four. Every run, you know,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: is pretty valuable when you're going to first five inning
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: under here. But looking at the starting pitching here, well, actually,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: i'll talk about the situation versus well, the Dodgers.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: They're returning home, man.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: They went into elevation to the Rockies, and then they
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: played on the road at San Diego.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: See.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: I know they're back in the Pacific time zone, but
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: that was a big weekend series. And again, returning home
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: from a road trip off of a big series, you
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: could be a little bit unfocused.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: So again, I think we have an offense that could
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: be a little bit unfocused here the Dodgers. That might
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: hamper their offense a little bit coming into this one,
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: which is also why I kind of like Cincinnati first five.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's coming in from Arizona. Yes, they're in the middle
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: of a road trip, but you know Cincinnati is gonna
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: show up here. Man. They've lost a bunch of games
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: on the road trip and they did just break a
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: three game loss streak with a win yesterday, so that
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: means they broke that losing momentum, which is good for Cincinnati.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: I think that means that's going to propel them forward.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: Another reason why I kind of lean to the Cincinnati
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: side here, but also I like their starter a little
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: bit better.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: But AI, they're playing for something here.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: Man. They're still in the hunt at least to try
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: to get a wild card, so you know they got
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: to show up as well, and you know they're gonna
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: show up when they're facing the Dodgers anyway. But again,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: we're looking at this starting pitching matchup, could be a
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: pitching duel. We got one of my favorite guys, man
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: the vomitter, the puke ball hunter. Green is on the
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: mountain here and hopefully he's not gonna be vomiting all
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: over the place this time unless it helps him.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: But he has really good numbers.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: Man two point sixty three ERA point nine three whip
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: he was the guy that early in his career, even
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: though his ERA wasn't good yet and whatever, I was
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: looking at his strikeout rate and his strikeout walking numbers,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: I'm like, man, this guy's.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: Gonna be good, and he is now.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: But he's been injured for a bit this season, but
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: his season overall has been really good anyway. He is
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse on the road, or significantly worse, actually,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: but at three point six six ERA isn't exactly bad.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: Since coming back from injuries, made two starts against Philly
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: and the Angels, so a good offense and a mediocre offense,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: and he has an eighteen to zero strikeout walk ratio
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: in those two twelve and a third innings, pitch three
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: on runs, allout all against Anaheim for whatever reason. He
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: shut out Philly the game before that, so that's a
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: good sign.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: He's a good form.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: Man two point one nine ERA over that span nine
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: hits a lout in those twelve to thirty innings with
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: the eighteen to zero strikeout walk ratio is crazy high,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, command really good, didn't walk anybody so Green.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: He's definitely in good form again coming back from injury.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: He was just immediately in good form. Yes, I know
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: he's facing a really good Dodger offense here, but his
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: numbers have been good against them in the past. In
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: forty three at bats twelve to one, strike a walk
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: ratio two thirty three average six ninety two oh ps.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: Still not really that high, but he has a lot
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: a couple of homers in there to Freeman and pi Ye.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: So wherever he brounce his name pages, boot bit pages.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: Turn and face the Green.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: And then we have Emmett sheet and pitching for the Dodgers,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: who is a young, talented pitcher man I think is
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit better than his number would even suggest.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: Four point one seven ERA one point two to four
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: whip here for the Dodgers. He's been better at home
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: three point seven to one R at home.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: He's still young.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit shaky over his last couple
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: of outings that they're both on the road. One was
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: against Anaheim. So for some reason, the Dodgers just really
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: do badly against Anaheim. I don't really know why. And
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: then his last start, maybe you give him a little
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: bit of a pass for that as well, because he
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: was at Colorado did still go six innings, he gave
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: it four and runs, but to strike out walk ratio
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: is still good. Even though he does have a five
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: point zero six ERA in three starts this month, his
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: command has been good and I don't think he's really
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: deserving of that ERA as an eighteen to five strike
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio this month, pretty good numbers with that there.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: That strike at walk ratio hasn't really allowed that many
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: hits either. The home run ball has been a little
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: bit concerning four home runs across those three starts, but again,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: he gave up a couple at Cores Fields, so I'm
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: gonna give him a little bit of a pass for that.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: And against the Reds, they're only one for twenty lifetime
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: off them. That one hit a triple from Spencer ste Year,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: but they've done almost nothing other than that. Hayes has
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: a walk, but other than that, they have a nine
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: to one strike out walk ratio oh fifty batting average
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: in two forty five ops. So Sheian has done really
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: well against the Reds. So again We're gonna go under
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: first five innings in that one, and that's gonna complete
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: the show for today.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: Monday.
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: Usually try to make the show a little bit shorter,
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: but Man, I cover every baseball game, so I try to, uh,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: you know, I I'm too autistic about it, man, I
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: try to cover everything.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: A la hondro. What's up? Man? You like the first
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: five under a sweet hell?
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: Man, I like Hunter Green a lot. Man. I like
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: Emmitt Sheehan too, which is why I'm doing it.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: Man. Otherwise, if I only liked Cincinnati, I'd probably looking
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: towards the Cincinnati first five money line, which I do
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: still agree with that as well. But yeah, the first
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: five unders. You gotta get the first five unders quickly,
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: Mark. Yes, the numbers like fade away from you.
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: So at least I do the show early enough that
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: I think you can get some the better numbers there
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: if you can't find it.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, it's a tough call, man.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: I mean you could still go full game on those,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man, I mean, there's a reason
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: to go first five under in some of these, but
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: we'll see what happens.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we get some wins. Here today.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: Man, that's gonna do it again. Four plays on a
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: Monday is more than I usually have. But I like
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: all of them. Actually got Baltimore Orioles money line. That's
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: a full gameplay. All of these are actually a full
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: game except for the last one that I talked about
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: Minnesota Toronto under the total in the full game you
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: might have to go under seven and a half at
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: this point, but you're still on the better side of
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: the key number seven if you do that Seattle Mariner's
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: money line and then first five under Red's Dodgers. That's
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: gonna do it, man. Learn to tone on Twitter, learn
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: to tone on Instagram. I put out short form betting
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: content there. My Twitter is a mess of all random
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: like sports betting, posting, shit posting, political posting, everything everything
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: you want, man, just random jokes whatever. Uh so check
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: it out there. Better Off Dead of course likes described
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: to the channel here on YouTube. Man, let's get me
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: monetized on the channel finally, and let's not get me demonetized.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: I'm also on the audio platforms with Better Off Dead,
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: so you can give me a good review on Apple
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: and Spotify. Help out The audio there covered in Yuke
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: is my ukulele project. I post yuke videos on Twitter
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: as well. I haven't been doing as much recently as
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: my voice just hasn't been good and my right index
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: fingers all messed up, I think from slapping the yuke.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: I think I broke my finger or something I don't know,
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: or sprained it at the very least, but we'll see.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: I gotta get back to that.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: Covered in yuk is on YouTube though, where I post
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: the yuke content there. I got to go and like
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: backlog it. Man. I got to really organize my shit
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: because I have a lot of covers that I only
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: posted on Twitter and then I can finally post them.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: I've been doing some originals as well, so check it
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: out and then Patreon dot com slash learn to total
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: though that's pretty much all yuke content for the bonus
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: stuff right now. You get a Spotify audio feed and
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: then prioritize request at the highest level. And I'm still
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: meaning on doing like live Patreon or maybe just public
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: ukulele requests streams as well. I'll just get on camera
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: and play ukulele and people will just demand requests out
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: of me. And if I could do it, I'll try,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: but it's like guaranteed to be like shitty because it's
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: like you get to see like the process, similar to
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: if you watch ass but his show which I still
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: forget the name of the show, I never remember it,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: but he does that with a He's a very talented pianist, keyboardist,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: and singer and he does that with his stuff. So
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: check it all out. Thanks guys, Happy Monday. Let's kick
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: off the week on the right note here in peace
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: for now,