Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets NFL Week 1

Transcript

Best Bets NFL Week 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Today is our week.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: One Thursday NFL Best Bets episode. I know I did
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of this housekeeping on Tuesday for our first
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Tuesday episode of the season, but I do want to
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: We have a lot of new listeners who don't know
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: sort of how we work during the season, so I
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: want to be clear every week for years. My co
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: host Simon Hunter, who I will bring on in a
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: second professional better we have been picking five games against
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the spread for a big money season long pick Them contest.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: On Tuesday's episode, we do an early look at all
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: of the games and we start narrowing down the field.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Will talk about our Simon says, bet we did that
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: this week. That was the Texans plus ten. We talk
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: about our exec decision bet that was the Steelers plus
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: two and a half.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: On Thursday.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Today's episode, we take the seven, eight, nine games that
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: we loved. We get closer to narrowing it down to
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: our five favorite bets that we will likely put into
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: the contest. Our five official picks are locked around Sunday
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: at noon. You can go check the Action Network app
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: for that. Follow the faves five in the Action Network
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: app if you want to see what those official five
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: picks are. A couple of massive, massive changes this year. One,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: we're adding a Sunday Night recap episode, probably on the
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: air by seven thirty after the afternoon games, before the
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Sunday night football game. We are spending way too much
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: time on Tuesday rehashing Sunday's pain. We're going to get
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: that out of the way. We can all share the
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: emotion together. Plus there might be some early lines that
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: we like. That means three shows a week live one
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: five on Tuesdays, eleven am on Thursday seven thirty ish
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Sunday nights, always ending before Sunday Night football. You can
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: watch these shows live on the Action Network page on YouTube.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: Or in.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Or in the Action Network app. You can also get
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in an AMP. Most important, I mentioned a contest. For years,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Simon and I have had to sign up for another
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: contest and you guys got to follow along.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: This year you.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Get to compete against us for real for massive, massive money.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Them contests with our partner at bet three six five.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: We're given away one hundred and twenty thousand in prizes
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: for season long and weekly pick them contests. Compete against
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: me and Simon all season, every single week as well.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: The top ten winners in the contest get paid out.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: For season long, first prize gets forty grand, second place
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: gets ten grand. Thousands of dollars in prizes to weekly winners,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: with the first place every week getting fifteen hundred dollars.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: We're even tossing out your two lowest scores after Thanksgiving
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: to low scores before Thanksgiving. You have nothing to lose.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: So if you haven't signed up and you're listening to
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: this podcast, I don't understand why go to favorites dot
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: actionetwork dot com, favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Sign up
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: for free favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Matt Mitchell wants
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: ten thousand participants. I'm telling you right now, we have
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: tens of thousands of listeners, so ten thousand should be
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: more than attainable. Wilessen to this pod. If you aren't
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: going to sign up for a free contest, sign in
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: am I right, Simon Hunter, my bff, my companion, Mike
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: and Padre professional better my coh, Simon Hunter, Am I right?
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Soymon uh Chad?
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: What would I do without you doing all that reading?
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: Thank you, my friend, You're the best.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Listen.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: I want people to get involved. I want us to grow.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: We have amazing listeners. Like I was telling people, please,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: if you're watching us on YouTube, subscribe to the YouTube
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: page like this video. Our YouTube numbers were massive this
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: past week, a lot of people subscribing. We really appreciate it.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Listen a huge request we had before the Tuesday episode,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: which we thought was a little pack, so we want
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: to do it today. People wanted our season long predictions.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Even though we spent a freaking month previewing all of
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: our favorite bets division by division, we did not give
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: our final seven playoff teams, our conference championship game predictions,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: and our Super Bowl predictions. So simon, give us your
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: seven playoff teams, your conference champ predictions, in your Super
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Bowl winner.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Here we go, all right, we'll start in the weaker conference,
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: the NFC. If people are new to this and you
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: think it's the repeat of every season, basic Historically two
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: to three teams fall out every year of the playoffs. Right,
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: We've just seen it time and time again. They get
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: a different scheduled upcoming season. It's harder than it was
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: the previous year. They got injury luck the previous year.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: So just take that into account here when we're going
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: to go through here. I'm not I don't mean to
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: leave your favorite team off. I literally just have a model.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: I plug it in. Last year gave us the Eagles
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: and the Chiefs to both be one seeds. Nailed it,
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: So hopefully this year have the same type of luck
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: for the NFC. We'll start at number seven, the Detroit Lions.
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: They sneak on in. Get that seven seed, and this
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: is where people are going to start getting mad. The
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: sixth seed. We got the forty nine ers, so they
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: don't miss the playoffs. Like people said, I was being
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: the ultimate hater, I'm just giving you with the other side. Right,
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: It's just not as easy as everyone's making out to be.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: Everyone's got them pencil in their division. Everyone's got the
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: pencil end to be the super Bowl. It just it
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: never goes as everyone's played. So got them as a
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: sixth seed got the Cowboys, the five seed got the Bears,
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: Chad as the four seed. Wow. Yeah, Seattle in the
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: three seed, the Saints in the two seed, and the
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: best team still in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles. They're
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: just I know, they you can say they lost their
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: coordinators and they got you know, rookie or second year
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: player as a linebacker. I still think offensively, yeah, they're
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: they're the most talent of the team the NFC. The defensively,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: their D line I still think will be above every
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: other team they play in this conference. So still still
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: got the Eagles up the one seed for back to
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: back seasons.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: Oh my god.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: We are pretty close actually, except for the fact I
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: have the Cowboys as.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: The one seed.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I have the Bears as the two seed. I have
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: the Saints as the three seed, Niners as the four seed,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Lions five seed, Eagles, six seed Falcons seventh seed. I
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: had a really hard.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: Time with the seventh seed in.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: The NFC because of what you said, like teams fall
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: out all the time, and I just like the Giants
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: being a team that repeats.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Like the NFC East is pretty strong, So.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: It was just hard to get the Giants or the
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: Vikings back.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exact exactly. And so you know, I'm higher on
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the Niners than you are. You like Seattle, I understand it.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I think there's going to be regression for that team,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: even though their defense is much better. And I know
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: you love their wide receiver trio. I just don't think
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Gino can do perform the same way. And I'm a
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: huge Arthur Smith backer and I love Beijon and I
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: think that that offense can do pretty well. But interesting,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: all right, who's your NFC Title game?
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: NFC Title game? I went with a bunch of op sets,
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: so I had the forty nine Ers upset, and I
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: had the Cowboys upset, and then you know, again, I
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: love the Bears, love Seattle, but I think Chad just
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: talked about it where it's just like these are very
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: unproven teams, especially once they get to the playoffs. So
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: as much shoulds I like to give Brock Purdy. He
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: was good in the playoffs last year, right, he really
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: did not lose them those games he played, he played
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: you know, pretty patient, really wouldn't attack downfield, but he
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: never really put his team in position to lose. So yeah,
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: pretty boring. My final two is Eagles versus the forty
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: nine Ers. Again, I just I have it going back
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: to that, and I got the Eagles making the super Bowl.
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: And we'll do the AFC first, and I'll give you
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: who I got win in the Super Bowl.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: I got the Cowboys in the Niners. So it's interesting
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: because you have the Eagles at the top seed and
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I have the Cowboys, and neither of us have the
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Niners as the two seed, but we both have them
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: in the championship game. And then I had the Niners
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: going to the Super Bowl. Let's go to the AFC.
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're both the same page, where you
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: just once you get to the playoffs and it's the coaching,
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: the coaching mismatches. It's like it's so hard to go
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: against Shanahan and in the playoffs he's just every year
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: he's got his team ready come January. So AFC start
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: down at the seven seed again. So again I had
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: to leave two teams out of the playoffs from last year.
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: I went with Miami. You know, they're a team that
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: has a lot hype coming to Chain and I want
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: the Ravens actually, So those are the two teams I
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: left out from last year's playoffs. So the seventh seed
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: I got Denver. Sixth seed I got Bengals. Five seed
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: I got the Chiefs, four seed I got the Titans,
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: three seed I got the Bills, two seed I have
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and the one seed I got the Chargers.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: This is so interesting, all right. In the seventh seed,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I have the Ravens. Six, I have the Chargers. Five
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I have the Chiefs. Four I have the Broncos.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: Three I have the.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Jags, I have the Browns, wow.
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: And one I have the Bills.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Basically, you and I, you and I feel the same
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: way about the Steelers and the Browns. And to be honest,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: like I was on the fence with both of those teams,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: and I just decided I like the Browns offensive line
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: and defensive line, and that's better better than I like
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: the Steelers in that combination. And you know we're bett
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: we you and I are betting the upside on the Browns,
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Like the Browns are one of my bigger division winner bets.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: And so that's, oh my god, it's so fun when
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: we're so close.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Uh, who do you have in the AFC title game?
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: All right? So this this one again is so tough,
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: just because the a FC is so good. But I
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: haven't ended up being a Chargers Chiefs in the a
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: FC Championship game with the Chargers moving on so well,
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: people already know if they follow this podcast. I'm all
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: in on the Chargers versus Eagles super Bowl, which you
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: can get right now at bet three six five at
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: fifty to one, So that's a bet. I do love
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: the Chargers versus Eagles super Bowl.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, Simon, our thinking is exactly the same,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: even though our teams are different. I have the Bills
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: and the Chargers, so I had the Bills is the
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: number one seed? You had the Chargers at the number
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: one seed? Yeah, and I had the Bills moving on
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: to play the Niners, which you can get at bet
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: three six five at like thirty five to one or
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: thirty to one.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: And oh my god, this is insane. That's so fun.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're both all in the Chargers. This is going
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: to end well for us one way or the other.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I'm going to have to get in on some of
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: that Chargers Eagles action now that.
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, throw a penny on it, because both these teams
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: don't need to be the one seed. But obviously we've
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: seen over history that home advantage is just it's such
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: a cheat code. Come playoffs.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to it. Let's get to Thursday.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: We have so much to talk about. As a reminder,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: we've mentioned Bet three six five. The Pavorites Podcast is
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: proudly presented by Bet three six five, the world's favorite
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: sports book brand.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Sign up with promo.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Code Action to get BET three six y five's exclusive
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: sign up offer. Bet one dollar on any game, get
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Must be twenty one
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: or older. Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Virginia and Iowa. Gambling problem caller text one eight hundred Gambler.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, producer Tito is in my ear every
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: day to remind me to tell you. You can catch
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live and on vod on YouTube.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: So for those enjoying, don't forget to give us a like.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Also on YouTube
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: and in the Action Network app. Starting today Thursday, three
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern and every day watch our daily betting show
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily with Maria Marine. I know It's amazing
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: in the app, on Action's YouTube page three pm, setting
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the betting agenda for the day. Finally, last CTA it's
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: a call to action. Call to Action Sunday, the best
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: pregame show in the history of NFL pregame shows all
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: the stuff out of the fluff. Me and Simon joined
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: by Chris Raybund, Sean Kerner, cast of thousands. Our pregame
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: show convinced me eleven am Eastern in the app on
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: YouTube watch it. We got to get to our Foxhole bet.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: We got to get to our.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Big Balls bet of the week.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to our Survivor bet, which I
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: forgot to mention on Tuesday. But a reminder, we got
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of professional betters who listen to this podcast
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: and watch us on YouTube. After our show on Tuesday,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: we always get calls from the pros. Simon for the
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: first time all season, let's do sharp calls.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: Hello, I'm talking Rain, Rain.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: Down the phone range.
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: Somebody saying baby who lead? Yeah, I would definitely say
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: week one and two, it's it's rare. I'll get calls
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: to try to help me and Chad. It'll be more
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: calls of just people talking shit. Everyone's just sowing their
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: opinions at this point, guys are betting these numbers for
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: three months. I might had two guys calling up saying
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: they loved our picks, and the rest are just calling
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: up just saying, how do you leave these guys? How
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: are you not taking these guys? The biggest one is
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: one I just know me and Chad won't take. But
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: if you want to bet it, I would say seventy
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: percent of the guys I heard from in the last
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: forty eight hours, we're all just loving this game, loving
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: this matchup, and that's the bucks. They love the bucks.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: So my argument to them is, in our contest, me
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: and Chat are doing it's five and a half the
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: numbers five and a half. If we got the six
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: or six and a half, yeah, me and Chad would
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: probably have a better feeling towards putting this one in
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: the contest. The fact that we're not getting that six,
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: which we talked all last season. Six is such a
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: key number now with how random kicking is nowadays and
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: how coach is going for two is six has become
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: such a key number just as important as seven is.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: So people want to know who the pros love. The
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: pros love the bucks. I can't get there. There's too
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: many other games I love on the board that me
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: and Chat talked about.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Stucky and Raybond.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybon and Stucky, who do the Thursday episode of
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast, which is amazing. They'll do their
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Sunday six pack, which is their six best bets.
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: They love the Bucks. Stucky loves the Bucks. Fair yep,
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: the one they loved. We got to put in now,
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: and I don't. I didn't want to put it in
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: just because I hate waiting. Me and Chad both hate waiting.
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: We have to put the Jets.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: In, Chad, and that's a game we're gonna break down,
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: all right. Every pro just loves the Jets. They're just saying,
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: we got to do it. And you know, I want
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: the three. I went to three and a half in
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: the contest. It's it's just gonna be two and a half.
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't see it get into three three
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: and a half in our contest. So we'll talk about
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: and take it two and a half. But yeah, that
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: was a big one. And you know the last one
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: is Arizona. What are we gonna do with this game? Chad?
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: Everyone I talked to just they're just yelling us. We
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: can't do it. We bet ugly. This is I feel
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: like this is the ugliest game on the board, So
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: that's another game we have to break down. But a
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: lot of guys say we got to take Arizona. I
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: think it's fair. Of all the bets I made, I
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: hate it the most, which is usually a really good sign.
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: Like when I hate betting an ugly dog. It's never fun.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: It's never fun. Me and Chat are gonna be sweating
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: it to the last play, but it usually comes through
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: for us. So yeah, right now, ones, I feel like
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: we have to put in and will probably be Arizona.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: Hopefully we get six and a half or seven and
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: a half, and then we'll take the Jets two and
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: a half, which I hate waiting. I hate waiting till Monday,
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: but it's just such a good number.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Don't worry.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: We already bet Arizona personally because we bet it back
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: in May. It was one of the games we loved
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: at plus six, so we'll have a taste of it
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: either way. Why don't we start with games that we're
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: not really debating still and make sure we're still on this.
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: I'm debating them on my issue right now, Chat is
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: I have like seven or eight. I really like we're
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: most people are gonna come here in a normal week,
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: I'll tell you, Like a normal week, three bets is
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: good for me. That's all I need, two totals or
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: two straight bets on a side. It's rare I have
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: this many, but that's how usually it goes. In Week
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: one and two, there's just a ton of value because
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: people are still betting off of what happened last year,
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: where again it's irrelevant to what's happening this season.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: I think we can agree we love the Browns.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Like to me, the Browns are automatically getting into
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: this contest. I think now is the best time because
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: I think they're undervalued, because I do think they're going
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: to win this game out right. I know we're betting
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: against a ton of Browns week one trends, but bottom
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: line is that we.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: Don't know if Joe Burrow's right.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: We know that this is a dominant defensive line, we
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: know this is a great offensive line, we know that
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: they have great talent. It's a great opportunity for the
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Browns in a week in which the Bengals are going
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: to be as overvalued as they are at any point
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: in the season until they lose the first five games,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: and then we realize.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: It's time to start betting the Bengals.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Browns are in that's fair. We have a
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: home divisional dog that should be a pity, But we're
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: catching two and a half three points because the Bengals
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: were so good last year. We'll take this number every
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: time again. Won't be shocked come Sunday if this is
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: one of the biggest public sides. It's just that they
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: love the fact they're getting Joe burrow nder a field goal.
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: He is Joe cool. So I totally get where the
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: public's coming from. They just I feel like they don't
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: see they' getting a bad number here. You'd be shocked.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: Chat about how many how many pros I know staying
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: away from this just because they're scared of Joe. It's
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: the same thing. I mean, we didn't talk about it,
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: but that's that Chiefs Lions game. Like I know a
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: lot of pros are like, I'm just going to take
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: the Chief's money line, Like, why would I not take it?
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: It's dropped in price and that's where the value is.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: There's a couple of games on here that are big
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: balls foxholes that we're going to want to put in,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: but not this next one because I think we can
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: both agree fucking love the New England Patriots as home
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: dogs against the Philadelphia Eagles at plus three and a half.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: And there's there's not much to me that we disagree
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: on for this and it's going to be one that
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: we want to put under the contest.
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, easy, or just an untested young defensive starters on
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: this Eagles team, how they're going to deal with this
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: really strong rushing attack that the Patriots have. So the Eagles,
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: they do have one weakness on that team is the
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: lineback and Core Belichick knows that Bill O'Brien knows that
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: that's what they're going to keep on attacking. It just
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: breaks right for what the Patriots want to do too
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: defensively against this Eagles offense. I mean, we joke all
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: the time, but that was a lot of what can
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: stop the Eagles is good scheme and we saw last year,
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: especially when they played the team like the Colts. Remember
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: that Colts game where the Eagles had to come crawling
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: all the way back. I think they won by one.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: The Patriots kind of run the same style where they
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: kind of bring down a safety and they again, if
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: the Eagles can beat them over top. Yes, the Eagles
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: should really take control of this game. I just don't
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: think they will. I think Bill had a whole summer
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: prepare for this game. So we already talked about the
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: fact you can get four now four and a half
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: if you're lucky. It's just because the right tackle is
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: out for this Patriots team most likely. So that is
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: a big deal that they're putting a backup in. If
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: you look how that kid, that kid grated out, it's
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: not going to be that much of a step down
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: to this other kid they're moving in there. So to me,
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: three and a half, if that's what it is in
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: our contest, I still feel comfortable taking this. If the
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: Eagles win this game, then winning by two or three,
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: that sounds right right in like a really close hard
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: fall game to me that that's a good number. Uh,
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: the fact that it's still above three and a half, four,
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: come on, cheh, got it, gotta do it. So I'm
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: with you on that when this this feels like another
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: game we just have to put in.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Got to put it in all right now, it starts
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: to get a little bit trickier because we got games
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: that I know we love, but it takes a little
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: bit more courage to pull the trigger.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: Let's talk.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: It's just hard making it one of our fives. That's
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: what's that's what's gonna happen a lot with a lot
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: of these games.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Wait say that again, with a.
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: Lot of these games, just gonna be hard making on
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: one of our five.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: Well, we got a list of like six or seven
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: games here that you know, we know we like two.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: We got to choose three from probably this list is
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: six or seven, knowing that comes Sunday there might be
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: something that sneaks in. You always like, convince me with something,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: and then it'll be eleven point fifty and you'll be like, well,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: we're getting the best of the number here. And then
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: I'll have to say, how often does the best in
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: the number matter in the contest? And do we want
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: to walk away from all the conversations we've had and
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: you know, we have to find some soul searching in
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: our confidence. But let's talk about the Falcons minus three
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: and a half. I'm falling more in love with this
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Falcons team every day. I know we're an Atlanta Falcons podcast,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: but I'm having a hard time not wanting to bet
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: the Falcons at minus three and a half. It even
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: though I know it's like a divisional game, eighty three
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: percent of the money right now in the Falcons, so
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: I know people are leaned in my way. I don't
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: think it's a foxhole. I don't think it's a big
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: balls but I like it.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know if Evan wants to chime in here.
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: He's got some really great stats about rookie quarterbacks, especially
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: the first overall pick making their first start.
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: Well, is Evan on? Can Evin come in?
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: I can tell you that it is number one picks
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: are thirteen and one straight up in their first starts
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: since two thousand and three.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: They're one in thirteen ats since then too. It's bad
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: across the board for the number one pick making their
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: first start. I hate taking such a public, easy chalk pick,
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: but every now and then you get a little gift,
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: and this seems like that's a little gift where we're
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: getting a rookie making his first start on the road
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: against an Atlanta team that everything they do matches up
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: really well against Carolina. Another big thing, too, is Brian Burns,
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: arguably the best defender on Carolina is holding out right
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: now that's a big deal. I probably got it right
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: where it's at three and a half. Four Like, no
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: crazy value here, but the value is in the pick
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: itself where all the trends love this bet with Atlanta.
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: So we always got to force one favorite in mean, Chad,
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: we have to always try to force one favorite in
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: this This will most likely be the favorite we end
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: up forcing in as one of our five.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: I put some questions. I put three question marks next
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: to it for now, all.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: Right, I mean it could it could. That actually could
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: be our big balls bet, just because we both hate
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: taking chalk favorites that much and it's taking us a
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: little bit of balls to make it.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Are you hating chalk favorites over a field goal in
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: the division It's like I've never hated anything.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: More than that.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just even talking about it, I'm just God, this
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: is this is disgusting.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: I hate it more than sugar. I hate it more
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: than processed foods. I hate it more than flower Like
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I hate taking a favorite of three and a half
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: in a divisional game.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: You'll love that said, Who is the one quarterback Chad
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: that covered that one time since two thousand and three?
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, you know, the answer.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: And you know what I'm going to say, because you
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: mock me for it every single time I mentioned his name.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: But it's David Carr, the correct car, where to go,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: It's David Carr.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: And you will also remind me that whenever I talk
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: about David Carr, I will remind everybody that I spent
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: a week with the Texans for ESPN the magazine during
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: their inaugural season for their first game, which they won,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: and me and David Carr talked a lot about all
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: the kids he was having, And you make fun of
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: me for that every single time his name is mentioned.
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: Relive in those glory days when you ran.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Also, by the way, fucking rich that you're making fun
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: of me for getting names wrong.
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: I don't say the names though. That's my key to success.
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: I just say that guy. I don't say the actual name.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the key to your success. This guy, that guy.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: All right, I want to throw one out there. I
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: think that I think we're going to have to put
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: in that is going to be a little bit of
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: a big balls Houston Texans plus ten Ah.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: We can't go with two of them. If you want
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: to go to Houston, then we're not going Cardinals like
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: we got to. We can't go both of these guys,
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: but I would.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Much I would much rather go Houston than Cardinals.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: That's why you should take Cardinals then. But yeah, I agree,
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: I feel better taking that. It's gonna be nine and
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: a half most likely in most contests, just because ten
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: and a half is such a key number. Most books
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: aren't gonna give that to you, let alone got contest line.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: So yeah, if you're fine playing with the nine and
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: a half, Chad, I could take it at nine and
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: a half. It's just it's tough. It's like me and
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: you are gonna be sitting there in the second quarter
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: and Lamar's having a career day in this new offensive
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: scheme he's running. It's twenty four to nothing, and it's
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: just like, damn it. This is what it's like ben
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: ugly rookies on the road with a rookie head coach.
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: But Chad already talked about it. You're playing the numbers here,
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: double digit dogs week one. I believe it's a fifty
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: eight percent rate. I mean I could tell us in
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: the comments. I know it's something high like that. So
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: Week one, double digit dogs again, you will listen to
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: the show until you die. Me and Chad every year
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: will be here a week one taking the double digit dog.
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: It's just it's you're always gonna find value week one,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: especially on a double digit dog.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna say it, big balls better a week.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Houston Texans plus ten against the Baltimore Ravens.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: Love it.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: She let's do it. That is the one. Big balls,
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: all right?
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: So we got a lot going on Houston. Now we
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: got them as a big balls am I Simon says, check,
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: we're in.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: I'm okay with that. I'm totally okay with that.
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: Oh God, let's talk about the.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Steelers, because I love the Steelers. They were the exac decision.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: You complimented me in a backhanded way and said, but it.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Was very much a public dog.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: The Niners traveling Kyle Shanahan is not great as a
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: road favorite. The public is moving the value of the
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Niners outside the range of where I think it should be.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Nick Bosa resigned. We talked about it on Tuesday. I
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: imagine he'll play, oh yeah, But that doesn't worry me
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: because when TJ. Watt is playing, he's such a difference
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: maker for the not for the Steelers that I think
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: you just got it.
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: We got to play him.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I hate it though, because Nick is he's the
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: defensive player of the year. He's so damn good, and
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: even if he only plays ten snaps, he's gonna rehab
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: it on all ten of those snaps. He's just so dominant.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I did love this number just because he
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: was out like that was a huge deal to me.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: I didn't think the book makers were making enough of
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: an adjustment to this line. The fact that he's coming back.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: If you're a four nine Ers fan, you gotta be
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: a static But nothing changed that. Nothing changed for me.
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: Chad still think they should be closer to a pick.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: We're still getting two and a half. Most books still
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: have it at two. We'll take that value. It's just
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: I think we already talked enough about it. Where it's
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: Brock on the road coming back from a major injury
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: in his first start. He's going to get hit in
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: this game. There is no one on that line where
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: wherever TJ Is going to line up, he's going to
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: attack the weakest point of their line. So you know
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: you can have an all pro one year tackles. They'll
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: just move it to the other side, and that's just
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: what they're gonna do Pittsburgh. So Kyle will adjust for that.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: He'll have some game scripts that will, you know, try
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: to get Watt off of his spot and get him uncomfortable.
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: And you know, this is one of these games where
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: the only way the forty Niniters win this game is
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: they have to go up to a big lead. They
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: have to go up to a big lead where they're
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: never warning out Rock dropping back having it passed the
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: ball right. They have to keep the Steelers defense off rhythm,
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: and I just don't see how it's gonna happen. I
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: think Kenny's gonna keep Pittsburgh in this game the whole time,
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: especially with all the weapons they have on offense. So
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: just just a bad matchup for forty nine Ers start
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: the season off. What was it last year? I think
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: was a Week one they went to the Bears and
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: they played in them on soon and the Bears end
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: up beating them. It kind of feels like the same
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: thing here where we don't even need the weather. It's
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: just a bad spot. And that's what it felt like
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: last year the forty nine they were just putting Trey
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: Lance in his first start on the road in bad
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: weather against that Bears team. I think me and Shat
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: were catching like seven or eight on that Bears team.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: Unfortunately, people know that Pittsburgh is nowhere near as bad
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: as that Bear's team was last year. So you know,
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: we took this at three months ago. It was looked
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: like it was gonna get to one one and a
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: half once Bosa wasn't gonna sign, and then once he signed,
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: you've seen it go up to two two and a half.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: So contest lines two and a half. This is one
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: of these games where I'm not gonna force it in yet, JAD,
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: but I would say it's definitely a finalist in our
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: last five, like our last spot for the five spot,
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: it's this like this or the Jets, is what I
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: feel like we're really going to arguing about, like do
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: we want to wait or we just want to pull
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: the band aid and just go with Pittsburgh in the spot,
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: because we again, we love Pittsburgh just as much we
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: love the Jets Andanny.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Baller Kenny Baller, all right, so we love the Browns
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: so far, We're all in on the Patriots. We're gonna
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: go with the Texans at plus ten. So we're basically
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: talking about the Steelers as one team that could fill
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the final two spots. Another team that could fill the
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: final two spots, New York Football Giants plus three and
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I do really like it. I just don't know
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: if it's one of my favorite. Historically, the Cowboys have
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: owned the Giants and that's the big fear here where
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: they just divisionally, they match up very well against them.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: We're playing the number. That's a big number in a
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: visional game to start off the season, So got no
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: issue putting that in. But I wouldn't put that on
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: the same level as I have Pittsburgh or the Jets.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: Right now, it's like, I love that bet. I'm happy
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: to make it. I just don't know if it's one
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: of my five favorite bets.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: All Right, here's what I'm gonna do.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say we're taking Arizona out of this, okay,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: And so I think our final two spots are going
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: to come down to the Steelers, the Jets, the Falcons,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: and there's one other team that we got to discuss,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: and we'll talk about the Jets too. I'm not forgetting that,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: but we know it's going to be in the debate
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: the Colts plus five and a half.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: We gotta love the Colts.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: That's the foxhole, brother.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that to me is that to me is the foxhole.
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, let's climb down into the foxhole.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: I might have heard from one other guy, it's like
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: me that's bent pretty heavy on this Colts team. So
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: no one's on this. I get it. Richardson is one
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: of the biggest question marks heading of the season, just
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: because we all know his athletic talent and his ability,
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: but can he complete the throws? And a lot of
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: guys don't think he can. I'm looking this at advantage
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: of I think he's going to run for one hundred
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: yards on this Jags defense. I don't see any one
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: of this team's linebacking anything, Like, I don't know who
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: they have to stop him, Like you can be like, well,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: they drafted a bunch of young dns. I don't think
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: they can keep up with them. I don't know if
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: they have the guys really to slow down the Jags.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: I mean this Colts offense, so you know, a lot
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: of turnover obviously for this Colts team. Five and a
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: half five four and a half way too much respect
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: for a Jaguars team way too much. So as an
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: no brainer, and I see our guy Evan just put
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: in the chat. Colts have the lowest percentage of bets
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: right now of any home team this week.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: We have to take the Colts.
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Now, it's a no brainer.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Every season in the in the opposite direction, we have
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: said when the Jaguars are visiting the Colts, we're taking
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: We know it's terrible, but.
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: Look, yeah, we were getting three and a half usually.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: And now we're getting five.
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Right for a Colts team that has a decent defense.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: A lot of questions obviously, but the Jags offensive line,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: and I am very high in the Jags, and remember
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: I got Trevor Lawrence thirty to one lead the league
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: in touchdown passes. Their offensive line is terrible. Yeah, their
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: offensive line was terrible with Cam Robinson and now he's
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: out for the first four games. This is inflated because
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: of everything that's been going on with the Colts.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: We got to take the Colts.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'm hoping our contest is five and a half,
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: but I don't Our contesting is pretty tough, so I'm
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: assuming it's gonna be four and a half, just because
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: it's usually a tough number. So if you can still
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: get the five and a half out there, it's a
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: no brainer. It's just such an inflated number. And we
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: talk about time though. Fives are pretty dead numbers, So
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: as long as you're getting the four and a half,
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: you should be happy with this number in this game.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm waiting to bet this until I want to
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: see how close we can get, because the five is
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: the dead numbers. If I get the four and a half,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: it's fine.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're lucky, we'll get the six.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: And if we're lucky, it'll go up on Sunday, like
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: all the trends are, this number should go higher. Also,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: you can just set a line alert in the Action
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Network app so you don't have to keep checking and
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: updating and refreshing. Well, let's talk about b E T
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: I n G the j E T S Jets, Jets, Jets.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: This number is at two and a half on Tuesday's episode.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Your comments, this is too easy, and then you're begging
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: bookmakers to give you the three because you know they're
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: going to go there. Now we're getting people saying just
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: take the two and a half. How do we feel
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: do we want to ask Matt Mitchell right now? For
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: those who don't know, Matt Mitchell eats his buffalo chicken
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: wings wearing Latex gloves because he doesn't like to get
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: the sauce on his fingers.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, give us your read on this, Matt.
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: Come Monday night. I'll have my late text gloves pressed
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: against my face and agony as I get queasy on
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: the last wing and the Bills failed to win. This
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: game feels like the trappiest thing. Playing the NFL's new
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: IT team and Aaron Rodgers in New York on nine
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: to eleven. I don't feel good about it at all,
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: and I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Also from our
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: friend Evan Abrams. Aaron Rodgers has won nine straight Monday
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: night football games straight up with Green Bay. His last
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: loss was in twenty thirteen to Chicago.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Jets. Let's break it down. Why
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: do we love this?
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an insane stat chet, That's that's crazy. There's
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: a lot of reasons love the Jets. The biggest one
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: we talked about on Tuesday is it's just a total
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: mismatch for this Bills team, they got their biggest achilles
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: heel is that offensive line, and nine percent of the
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: time it doesn't because anyone that can catch Josh. No
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: one can really catch Josh Allen, Right, that's really his strength.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: He's so hard to bring down. Usually time their pressures,
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: even there he's already dished out the Digs or Gabe Davis.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: This ain't gonna work against this front of this Jets team.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: They got guys who are going just as fast as
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen. So when you're just looking up the matchup,
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: the teams we're gonna want to attack the Jets with
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: are teams that can get after Rogers. And that's another
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: thing that Bills don't have defensively. They just don't have
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: anyone can really put the pressure on Rogers. So what
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: we assume here is this is a nice spot for
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: this Jets team and a bad spot for the Bills team.
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: We talk next week, we will flip it. We'll be
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: going against the Jets. We'll be all over the Bills
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: next week. But this week, the Jets are going to
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: have their weekend paradise. Like, what better way to start
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: off primetime game? You have the big upset and you
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: can just talk about how amazing you guys are for
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: the whole week. So yeah, if you hate New York
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: media and you hate the Jets, who it is going
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: to be a long week. If they win this game,
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: if they blow them out, Oh my god, I can't
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: even imagine what it's gonna be like in talk radio.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: But to me, this is gonna be a close, tight
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: tights game. If this was plus three of the Bills,
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: I'd be trying to convince you to come on the
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: other side and take the Bills. But the fact we're
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: catching points in a game that should really be a
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: pick them. Like the bookmakers, they're giving us a lot
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: of free points here, and the public has taking it.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: It's the same thing as it feels like with Burrow,
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: where it's like we have one of the best quarterbacks
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: in the league, we have them under our field goal,
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: we're gonna take them here on the road in week
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: win a divisional game, and it's just that's just not
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: smart betting, where in Week ten and eleven it'd be
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: totally different scenario. But in week one, this is the
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: bet you make. You take the Jets here, you take
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: the points. This this is one of these I really
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: can't pass on this number.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: I will look signon.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Like the big challenge here is that we've got to
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: narrow this down a little bit because right now we're
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: talking Browns, we're talking Steelers, we're talking Colts, we're talking Texans,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: we're talking Patriots, we're talking Jets.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: That's six.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: We don't have the Falcons in there as a favorite.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: We're committing to the Cults, as are Foxhill. We're committing
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: to the Texans.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: Is our big bet.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Like we're gonna have to make a call on Sunday.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: We don't have to do it yet because we've got
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: a lot more stuff to get to.
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: Yah.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: I love the Jets, but I'm telling people that it's
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: like a ninety nine chance me and Chad drop it
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: because I just I can't imagine being four and oh
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: and having to wait a whole nother day or we're
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: ohing four and now I have to wait twenty four
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: hours for our lives to stay one and four. Because again,
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: me and Chad, we've never gone oh and five. So yeah,
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I can wait that whole time
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: for the next day for that game, Chad. But do
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: love the Jets, but that they simply might get cut
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: just because we both can't stand waiting twenty four hours
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: until that game.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: Like I said, we've narrowed it down.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: We love the Browns, we love the Steelers, we love
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the Texans, love the Patriots.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: The Jets are going to be a question mark.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: They really really are. It's going to be exciting. I
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: can't wait. We got some more stuff to get to.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: But first, sigmon. The fastest growing ticketing app in the
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: United States is game Time. I love game Time for
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: two reasons. One, they sponsor the show. Two, I actually
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: use game Time to buy tickets. They've got amazing last
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including pro and
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: college football games. I'm opening the game Time app right
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: now from my house here in Connecticut. I could go
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: to the US Open, I could go to the Jets
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Monday night football game. I can still get into the
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Yankees games for six bucks New York Liberty for under thirty.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: get out and have some fun this week. Go sweat
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: your bets live and in person, and you can redeem
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: apply again. Download the app and enter code favorites for
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars off last minute tickets lows price guaranteed.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: All right, signing. Should we talk about a Survivor Yes,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: let's do it. The Survivor pool pick of the week.
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: There's only one play.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: Tell me what you think it is.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: It's as easy as you can get. When else would
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: we take the Commanders? When else are we able to
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: bet against a team with out their started quterback and
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: Kyler Murray. So this is one of these where I'm
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: happy to attack Arizona early here until Kyler's back. And
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: you know, you go through you and try to make
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: a list of the worst teams in football. You know,
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: could be this Cardinals team. You could throw Tampa in there,
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: you could throw Carolina in there, you could throw the
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Rams in there. Like, there's a couple of teams that
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: you know, you put them on your list and you
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: look up where there's different matchups. Washington doesn't really have
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: that many easy games, and this, to me is one
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: of these where we take them. If we get knocked
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: out Week one on Washington, great, it's over. We don't
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: have to worry about the rest of the year. If
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: we win even better. We've used Washington. Now we have
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: to use Washington the rest of the season. So I
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: think last year, yeah, it was the Colts. I literally
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: I want to say, like eighty percent of my league.
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: I knocked out last year on the Colts in Week
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: one because the tie counts as a loss. Yeah, again,
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: check the rules of your book or wherever you're doing
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: it through. But how do we not like Washington's one
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: of those teams where it's like I'm taking their money line,
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: I'm throwing it with the Chiefs money line. Like it's
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: just one of those teams where the Arizona could come
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: back and cover that number at the end. But if
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: Sam's on a total bust at quarterback for them, they
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: should be able to win this game pretty handily. So
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: just based on town on the field, like Washington has
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: a ton of town offensively and defensively, they should be
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: able to handle this Arizona team. So could like a
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: total idiot with my foot in my mouth come Monday
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: when they they somehow lose to a backup quarterback who
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: just got picked up by the team not even a
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: week ago. But how do we not take this and
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: just based on the commander schedule, we'd never be able
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: to take them again. So it feels like Survivor pick.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: We just have to go with the public. Got a
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: ride with the Commanders, and we could take the Ravens
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: at a different point this year. I know a lot
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: of people are taking them just because again they're playing
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: a rookie on the road in his first start. But yeah,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: putting a lot of faith here into the Washington football team.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm cutting to Tuesday. What I'm saying everybody, Boy,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: that was a fun season of Survivor, wasn't it.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: That's why I got tune to Sunday and night people
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: get them to live in our misery.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: Listen, the other company that we're lucky enough to have
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: sponsoring us right now, this one is right up my alley.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Because everybody at Action knows how I treat my body
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: like a temple. That's why I've been so excited about
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: our new sponsor, Factor, America's number one ready to eat
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: meal kit. Factor hooks you up with delicious, chef prepared,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: ready to eat meals delivered straight to your house. He'll
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: save time, eat well, and stay on track with a
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: healthy lifestyle. Our producer, Matt Mitchell also has been a
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Factor guy for.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: A year now.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Three main things we love about Factor no chopping, prepping,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: or cleaning up. You get great flavor and the nutritional
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: quality you need to tackle polarizing topics like the Atlanta
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Falcons or the Washington Commanders. As your survivor, pick Factors.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Fresh never frozen meals are ready in just two minutes.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: So this fall, run your own two minute drill with
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: Factor and enjoy eating well without the hassle. Select your
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: meals and enjoy fresh meals delivered to your door. Just
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: head to Factor meals dot com slash favorites fifty that's
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: favorites five zero and use code favorites fifty to get
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: fifty percent off. That's code favorites fifty at Factor meals
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites fifty to get fifty percent off.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: One more thing to do simon money lying around Robin.
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: My dog likes your dogs, Your dog likes mon dog.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Let me start layering in the teams. So this is
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: when we pick the underdogs on the money line who
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: we think would make have good chances to win and
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: would make a great round.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: Robin.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Basically, what you do is you pair each of these
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: teams for a small amount of money and you make
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: a money line round Robin Parlay out of it.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: So here we go. I love the Lions at plus
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: one ninety. No convinced.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: I'm just throwing some things out there. I'm just I'm
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: making some ideas right now. Browns plus one twenty, Yeah,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: definitely Steelers plus one fifteen. I'm tempted by Titans at
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: plus one forty seven.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: I don't hate it. I had us, but we were
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: gonna take Cleveland.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: I had us taking Pittsburgh. We can't not do it
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: just because so many pros love it. We need a
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: big dog here, so for us, for the big dog,
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: I thought we would throw the Bucks in, like, okay,
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: just a completely outside shot that they can come back
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: and win that game, because we could do the Colts.
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: I just I think cult will cover that number. I
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: just can't see a scenario with them win, Like it's
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: just so much would have to go wrong for the
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: Jaguars for them to win. So yeah, for my big dog,
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: I feel better going the Bucks. I don't hate you.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: If you want to go to Tennessee, I'll put that
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: one in and then we'll finish it. Off, would you
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: rather do Giants or the Jets. I feel better about the.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Jets, Okay, I was going to say Jets are Patriots,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: so let's go.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: With the Jets.
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's see the Jets.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: So our money line Round Robin Parlay will be the
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: New York Jets, the Cleveland Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Bucks, and the Tennessee Titans. So basically what
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: you'll do is you'll match Jets, Browns, Jets, Steelers, Jets, Bucks, Jets, Titans,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: again and again and again with each team, so you
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: get a pair for your money line Round Robin Parlay. Brother,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: we will be back with Convince Me, You Me, Chris Raybond,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, plus Even eight Brimson, Dann Ravel on the
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Action Network News Desk eleven am. We will be followed
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: by the Touchdown Show headed by Jille Gallant. It will
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: be part of the Action Network Power Hour. You will
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: be able to watch that in the Action Network app
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: on Action Network YouTube. As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: is proudly presented by BET three sixty five, the world's
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: favorite sports book brand. Sign up with promo code Action
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: to get BET three six y five's exclusive sign up
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: offer be one dollar on any game and get two
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars in bonus bets. Must be twenty one or older.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or text one eight hundred Gambler Reminder.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars pro Football Pick
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: Them contests with our partner Bet three sixty five. We're
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: given away one hundred and twenty thousand in prizes for
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: season long and weekly pick them con tests. Compete against
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: me and Simon all season. Go to Favorites dot Actionnetwork
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: dot com. Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Sign up for
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: free Download us from Apple, podcasts from Spotify wherever you
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: get your podcast, rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift for Simon Hunter.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I am Chadmilman. We'll see you Sunday night to recap
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: all the misery from Sunday and preview what's happening for
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: the rest of the week seven point thirty Eastern live
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: on YouTube in the app Download us until next time,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Love you.
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help Us
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler