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Cubs vs Padres Wild Card Preview · Monday Morning Cubs Show

0:16
SPEAKER_00: Good morning, good afternoon, and evening Chicago Cubs fans, and welcome back to the Monday Morning Cub Show for a special edition playoff preview wild card round Cubs on the road against the Padres.
0:28
SPEAKER_00: Tuesday, 9 p.m.
0:30
SPEAKER_00: It's your host, Carl.
0:31
SPEAKER_00: This is a solo episode.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: We're on the playoff run now, boys.
0:34
SPEAKER_00: We're on the playoff run.
0:36
SPEAKER_00: So just some housekeeping stuff before we get in the episode.
0:39
SPEAKER_00: This is going to be heavy scatter reporting of the Padres.
0:42
SPEAKER_00: We're going to get our minds right.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: So we're just ready to watch good, crisp, clean baseball.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: When these when these at bats come up and we're in these pressure situations, I'm going to try and give you enough information to enhance your experience.
0:55
SPEAKER_00: Is basically what we're getting at here.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: You know, we've gone through the 162 two shows a week.
1:00
SPEAKER_00: We know our team extremely well.
1:02
SPEAKER_00: This is an opportunity to learn a little bit more about the Padres.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: It's a solo show here.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: You guys get a chance to leave a review, share the episode.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: I will be back either directly after the game Tuesday, depending on how late it goes, or first thing Wednesday with a reaction into game two prediction.
1:18
SPEAKER_00: And same thing with game two, assuming, you know, if there is a game three, if we don't sweep the first two games, we're in playoff mode on the Monday Morning Cub Show.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: So go ahead, subscribe, and obviously get yourself a Thursday Paquero.
1:31
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, it's Thirsty Paquero season, the official beverage partner of the Monday Morning Cub show.
1:35
SPEAKER_00: It's a Mexican-style soda.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: It's a non-alcoholic Mexican-style soda with a signature spicy finish, with a little kick at the end, with a little heat.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
1:46
SPEAKER_00: We got mango muerte.
1:48
SPEAKER_00: We got spicy watermelon.
1:50
SPEAKER_00: We got Lamon Ladrone.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: This is the fuel that's going to take us to the 2026 World Series.
1:56
SPEAKER_00: I have a profound, sincere belief in that.
1:59
SPEAKER_00: All right.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: It's an all-bite, no rattle Mexican-style soda.
2:03
SPEAKER_00: You can get it on Amazon.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: 12 ounce, 16 ounce, three bold flavor ships right to your front door.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: If you're looking for good vibes, if you think our bullpen stinks, if you believe the Padres have more talented pitching, what can you do about it?
2:17
SPEAKER_00: You can go to Amazon and get yourself a thirsty vaquero.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: What can you do to improve the Cubs odds?
2:22
SPEAKER_00: You can go to Amazon and you can get some fucking thirsty vaquero and give us a chance to win a World Series.
2:29
SPEAKER_00: Because if you're not going to do that, then don't come back here and complain to me and say, hey, Volpen's not good enough.
2:34
SPEAKER_00: You didn't do your part.
2:35
SPEAKER_00: Your part is what?
2:36
SPEAKER_00: Pick out a bold flavor.
2:37
SPEAKER_00: Get all three.
2:38
SPEAKER_00: There's a sampler platter.
2:39
SPEAKER_00: It's on Amazon.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: Um, customary, we give out awards every week.
2:43
SPEAKER_00: In the spirit of Thirsty Vaquero, you know, as we get ready for the playoffs, we talk about the Padres.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: It's nice to put a little bow on this award season here because PCA obviously is our spicy watermelon of the week.
2:55
SPEAKER_00: You know, I think that one's pretty obvious.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: Um if you want me to go Mango Morte right now, do I need to explain PCA?
3:03
SPEAKER_00: 40-40.
3:04
SPEAKER_00: That was awesome.
3:07
SPEAKER_00: My Mango Morte is Daniel Palencia.
3:09
SPEAKER_00: He's just going to be pitching in the fifth, sixth inning.
3:11
SPEAKER_00: I have a feeling the amount of high leverage we're going to put in Daniel Palencia.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: Who's our closer?
3:15
SPEAKER_00: We don't even care.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: That's how bad the bullpen is.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: If you were Craig Counsel, who would you trust?
3:21
SPEAKER_00: He has damaged goods.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: He has no, and I don't mean Palencia.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: I mean Craig Counsel has just been nothing but nobody.
3:27
SPEAKER_00: He trusts nobody in the bullpen.
3:30
SPEAKER_00: That's a delicious thirsty careless.
3:33
SPEAKER_00: I'm having a spicy watermelon.
3:35
SPEAKER_00: Although my mango muerte is Palencia.
3:38
SPEAKER_00: Just because I for a long time people were just didn't want him.
3:42
SPEAKER_00: Don't like him.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: You know, leave him in the back of the fridge.
3:46
SPEAKER_00: And now you're in a situation I think Palencia is going to be, I think Palencia is going to have three bit.
3:51
SPEAKER_00: No, he can't pitch in back-to-back-to-back games.
3:53
SPEAKER_00: Can he?
3:54
SPEAKER_00: Can we pitch him in three straight games?
3:55
SPEAKER_00: He'll have at least two monster appearances in this Padres series.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: Gun to my head.
4:01
SPEAKER_00: Don't hold a gun to my head.
4:02
SPEAKER_00: Put the gun away.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: Um, Lamola, Swanee.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: Lamone drone, Swanee.
4:08
SPEAKER_00: So consistent, steady.
4:10
SPEAKER_00: You need him to round things out.
4:12
SPEAKER_00: We need Swanee for the playoffs.
4:14
SPEAKER_00: Swanee won this series last year against the Padres.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: If you remember, nice afternoon crisp fall baseball at Wrigley Field.
4:20
SPEAKER_00: Swanee won the series.
4:22
SPEAKER_00: Luisa Rise made 15 outs on hard hit balls up the middle that Swane Field did, completed the play.
4:29
SPEAKER_00: Double plays, running into left center, back ends.
4:33
SPEAKER_00: That's a slam dunk.
4:36
SPEAKER_00: So Swanee's healthy.
4:38
SPEAKER_00: You know what's going on with Bregman?
4:40
SPEAKER_00: He doesn't win an award.
4:41
SPEAKER_00: So we're not talking about Bregman right now.
4:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to get to Bregman when we took when we talk about position groups and stuff.
4:48
SPEAKER_00: But in the meantime, check out Thirsty Vicarrol for the last for the last time of the show.
4:52
SPEAKER_00: You know, I'll bring it up again.
4:54
SPEAKER_00: But just check him out.
4:55
SPEAKER_00: It's Thirsty Vicarol.
4:57
SPEAKER_00: It's on Amazon.
4:58
SPEAKER_00: It can't get any easier.
5:00
SPEAKER_00: And if you don't, then you can't complain about the Cubs in the playoffs.
5:03
SPEAKER_00: Alright, so let's get to the Padres.
5:05
SPEAKER_00: Now, importantly, the Padres are red hot.
5:07
SPEAKER_00: Now, I can complain about the Cubs that we're going on the road, and it does bother me that we're going to break the luxury tax, spend over almost a quarter of a billion dollars on players, and not play playoff baseball at home.
5:19
SPEAKER_00: You know, is objectively shitty.
5:23
SPEAKER_00: No doubt about it.
5:25
SPEAKER_00: And we have to talk about the playoffs, and I'm happy to do it.
5:29
SPEAKER_00: But first I will say I also am disappointed.
5:31
SPEAKER_00: $40 million.
5:32
SPEAKER_00: We'll do this later, Carl.
5:34
SPEAKER_00: But I mean it's on my mind now.
5:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, again, taken to the woodshed by the Brewers.
5:39
SPEAKER_00: So as we prime and we prep for the Padres, I have to swallow some hard pills, and then I gotta get my mind ready for what should be good baseball.
5:48
SPEAKER_00: Right?
5:48
SPEAKER_00: What should be good baseball.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: So here's what you need to know about the Padres, folks.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: All right, all this information again brought you by Thursday Carol.
5:54
SPEAKER_00: Get it on Amazon.
5:56
SPEAKER_00: They're red hot.
5:56
SPEAKER_00: 16 and 3 over their last 19.
5:59
SPEAKER_00: They're red hot.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
6:01
SPEAKER_00: That's the number one thing you have to keep in mind.
6:03
SPEAKER_00: Now, a lot of their guys have been absolute ass compared to who they are and who they should be.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: Specifically the left side of the infield.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: Xander Bogartz, who's been pretty good in September, and Manny Machado.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: Now, they're red hot though.
6:20
SPEAKER_00: And that's because Fernando Tatis Jr.
6:22
SPEAKER_00: is unbelievable.
6:24
SPEAKER_00: They have they have tremendous style star power in him.
6:30
SPEAKER_00: 20 home runs in the second half, I believe.
6:33
SPEAKER_00: I want to say ended up close to 40 stolen bases.
6:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, and he gives you a guy who who undeservedly won the platinum glove last year in right field above PCA, but basically what we're talking about is superstar in the field.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: So it's like a complete robust leadoff superstar.
6:53
SPEAKER_00: That's that's the number one engine behind 16 and 3 over your last 19 games.
6:58
SPEAKER_00: The other guy, though, that's like really worth pointing out here, uh, you know, with respect to the last almost 20 games here where you're just scorching hot, is somebody you don't know.
7:10
SPEAKER_00: Uh somebody I've watched very little of, and that's Dustin Harris.
7:13
SPEAKER_00: And he should probably end up hitting second behind Tatis, would be my you know, read on the situation, is that we're gonna go Tatis one, and then Dustin Harris, who's an athletic left fielder hitting almost 330, I believe.
7:31
SPEAKER_00: This is his third team of the season.
7:33
SPEAKER_00: The Padres picked him up like a month ago, and he's been awesome.
7:38
SPEAKER_00: He's been so good that it's like one of those things that happens in baseball with your team when the lineup gets set and a guy comes in, he kind of moves guys around, you know, and things what?
7:46
SPEAKER_00: What's the word?
7:47
SPEAKER_00: They click.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: So if you wanted to point your finger at the at the last 20 games for the Padres and say they've been sensational, they climb their way into hosting wildcard, and I had to pick out two position players over that stretch.
8:00
SPEAKER_00: Now, there's way better players on this team than Dustin Harris, that's a fact.
8:04
SPEAKER_00: However, since putting him into the lineup, since he's been hitting second, they have been downright sensational.
8:13
SPEAKER_00: Magnificent.
8:14
SPEAKER_00: So those are those are the two off the top.
8:19
SPEAKER_00: If I consider that we're going to start Gossman or Clay Holmes.
8:23
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is a little all over the place right now, but the number one point we're trying to catch right now is the Padres are red hot.
8:28
SPEAKER_00: They have two position players at the top of the lineup who have been sensational down the stretch that have kind of carried the load for him.
8:35
SPEAKER_00: And then in and around them, uh, you know, a lot of familiar names and faces.
8:40
SPEAKER_00: You know, notably Manny Machado, who will be hitting third despite hitting under 200 for most of the second half.
8:46
SPEAKER_00: So this is one of these interesting things.
8:48
SPEAKER_00: We know Manny Machado, first ballot Hall of Famer.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: I tell you, Manny Machado's in the batter's box, you're instantly, instinctually going to be like, that obviously tough out.
8:58
SPEAKER_00: No, he's been absolutely brutal.
9:01
SPEAKER_00: He's been brutal in September, he was brutal in August.
9:04
SPEAKER_00: He had a pretty good June, I think.
9:06
SPEAKER_00: If you had to sketch out Manny Machado's entire season, but that was a long time ago.
9:11
SPEAKER_00: So even though they have been red hot, you start to like, if I wanted to pick out weaknesses, Manny Machado to me, even though big swing the other day, uh, as a three-hitter, about as weak as it gets right now, on paper.
9:23
SPEAKER_00: Great player, first ballot Hall of Famer, no doubt about it.
9:26
SPEAKER_00: And then hitting cleanup, typically.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: Typically.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is against right-handed pitching.
9:31
SPEAKER_00: We don't have game one starters confirmed yet, other than to say Michael King is pitching for the Padres.
9:37
SPEAKER_00: What I mean for the Cubs, we don't have a rotation yet, which doesn't surprise me in the least bit.
9:42
SPEAKER_00: But Jackson Merrill, who is a guy that obviously was much better than Pete Crow Armstrong about two years ago in the conversation, he's gonna hit cleanup and he's a great player.
9:53
SPEAKER_00: Jackson Merrill's a great player.
9:54
SPEAKER_00: Fernando Tatis Jr., great player.
9:56
SPEAKER_00: You know, not putting Dustin Harris in the category of being a great player, but Dustin Harris has been good down the stretch.
10:02
SPEAKER_00: And so he's gonna be a pesky out.
10:04
SPEAKER_00: He doesn't strike out that much, he swipes extra bags.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: Um, not a power threat at all, but just the type of guy where like we what I'm coming back to red hot, now we're gonna get into some like specific stuff.
10:15
SPEAKER_00: Again, I know we're all over the place here, folks, but I'm I'm gonna arm you with the information.
10:19
SPEAKER_00: So what we're doing right now is talking specifically about the Padres position players, their lineup, what we're probably gonna see against right-handed pitching.
10:26
SPEAKER_00: Because I would guess Gossman or Clay Holmes pitches game one.
10:29
SPEAKER_00: I'd be shocked if Matt Boyd gets the ball.
10:32
SPEAKER_00: And the other reason I'd be shocked too is because the Padres hammer left-handed pitching compared to right-handed pitching, especially in the last six weeks.
10:39
SPEAKER_00: So if you want to like get the splits out in front of you, I want to say they're on base percentage against left-handed pitching over the last six weeks, is somewhere close to like 390.
10:48
SPEAKER_00: I think everyone in their lineup is crushing left-handed pitching right now.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: So even though Boyd's throwing the pill well, Matt Boyd uh and Showday probably has like our best entire body of work throughout the duration of the season.
11:01
SPEAKER_00: You know, I am still inclined at the time of recording to lean into I believe it would be Gossman, I believe it would be Clay Holmes, one of those two guys.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: And then if I believe that, then I do believe that the Padres are gonna roll out Tatish Jr., who's got almost 30 home runs, almost 40 solo and bases, elite defense, he's gonna play right field.
11:19
SPEAKER_00: Two should be Dustin Harris in left field, hitting about 330 since coming over.
11:24
SPEAKER_00: I believe had a cup of coffee with the White Sox this season.
11:27
SPEAKER_00: And a guy who doesn't strike out that much, very pesky, will hit the ball the other way.
11:32
SPEAKER_00: Into the three-hole Manny Machado, who, despite being first ballot Hall of Fame stuff, not great however you want to look into the season.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: There's like a couple weeks where he was very good.
11:42
SPEAKER_00: He's not been good at all.
11:44
SPEAKER_00: He will hit three.
11:46
SPEAKER_00: Which, you know, if you're gonna have a bad sore player in the lineup, I suppose Manny Machado's like not a shabby place to be because he can't just flip it on, I suppose.
11:56
SPEAKER_00: But he has been terrible.
11:57
SPEAKER_00: So what I'm saying is ditch kind of whatever, you know, if you have that shit, save it like, oh shit, I should say.
12:05
SPEAKER_00: If you have that in your head when the guy gets in the box, you're like, oof, we got our work cut out for us.
12:11
SPEAKER_00: The most relevant example, surprisingly, I can think of that tangible feeling you have watching playoff baseball, opposition, you're looking at one player in the lineup, you're like, we need to control this guy.
12:21
SPEAKER_00: Remember Jason Hayward on the 2015 Cardinals?
12:24
SPEAKER_00: He was such a beast.
12:27
SPEAKER_00: That's kind of that feeling, that tangible feeling of like, we gotta, we gotta, we gotta keep this guy quiet.
12:33
SPEAKER_00: That's obviously Tatis Jr.
12:35
SPEAKER_00: But then I go to four, and I'd say Jackson Merrill's right there.
12:38
SPEAKER_00: And then five is Ty France, who's got a 500 slug against Reddies and Lefties this year, who's who's probably pound for pound, uh, and that's even playing first base, the most valuable player on the on the on the Padres this year, all included first and second half, where Tatis has had a monster second half.
12:58
SPEAKER_00: He was nowhere to be found in the first half.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: I think he hit five homers in the first half.
13:02
SPEAKER_00: I want to be respectful about that.
13:04
SPEAKER_00: I know he did steroids.
13:06
SPEAKER_00: I like that he did steroids.
13:07
SPEAKER_00: But I'm saying I think Ty France has had the better season as a right-handed hitter for the Padres.
13:12
SPEAKER_00: Call me crazy.
13:13
SPEAKER_00: But he hits five.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: Now, typically, he was hitting four Jackson.
13:17
SPEAKER_00: They were doing some flip-flop.
13:18
SPEAKER_00: But my point to you guys is those are the first five guys.
13:22
SPEAKER_00: We talk about the the San Diego Padres, it's those first five.
13:27
SPEAKER_00: That's it.
13:29
SPEAKER_00: You know, because I believe Gavin Sheets is back and healthy.
13:33
SPEAKER_00: He would he would probably hit six huge swing and miss, would have major problems against Clay Holmes with his brain stuff going in on Gavin Sheets back foot, would have major issues with Kevin Gossman with the splitter.
13:46
SPEAKER_00: So I love that shit.
13:47
SPEAKER_00: Perfect.
13:47
SPEAKER_00: Hit him six.
13:49
SPEAKER_00: Xander Bogartz is objectively a below average right-handed hitter in Major League Baseball at this point.
13:55
SPEAKER_00: I believe he takes the field every day and hits seventh now.
13:59
SPEAKER_00: This is just speculative.
14:00
SPEAKER_00: Now, Cronenworth at eight and Ethan Sales nine, serviceable lefties.
14:06
SPEAKER_00: Very serviceable.
14:08
SPEAKER_00: I'm a Big Ten guy like Cronenworth, milky Midwestern tid.
14:12
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, and Ethan Sales, I think he's the youngest position player in baseball.
14:16
SPEAKER_00: Is he?
14:17
SPEAKER_00: I think he would be their catcher.
14:19
SPEAKER_00: The other one's Fermin.
14:20
SPEAKER_00: Is it Fermin?
14:22
SPEAKER_00: You know, can't Luis Campano, who is it that is it him?
14:26
SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you what it isn't.
14:28
SPEAKER_00: It's significant.
14:30
SPEAKER_00: And what I'm trying to do is draw a clear path in the Padres lineup and say one through five and then six through nine.
14:36
SPEAKER_00: Six or nine cake.
14:37
SPEAKER_00: I mean, six through nine like little eat cake to me.
14:42
SPEAKER_00: Especially if you want to compare.
14:44
SPEAKER_00: I haven't said a word about the Cubs roster yet, but if you want to start comparing it and start slicing it up, we have the better superstar.
14:52
SPEAKER_00: PCA is a significantly better player than Fernando Tatis Jr.
14:54
SPEAKER_00: Although Tatis Jr.
14:55
SPEAKER_00: spent great in the second half.
14:57
SPEAKER_00: That's about as good as you can be in the National League to have an argument being as good as PCA, and he's objectively behind him.
15:05
SPEAKER_00: So then between Machado, Cronenworth, I'm sorry, Machado, Merrill, and Ty France, you know, gone to your head, Suzuki, Bregman, Bush.
15:18
SPEAKER_00: What do you like more?
15:19
SPEAKER_00: I like Suzuki Bregman Bush more.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is why I'm comfortable saying I do believe we have a better lineup.
15:27
SPEAKER_00: I don't need to get into our six through nine is in comparison to theirs.
15:30
SPEAKER_00: I'll just say it's deeper, it's better, we have a much better bench, we have a much healthier team, despite Alex Bregman's eyes, uh, you know, eye socket being shattered.
15:40
SPEAKER_00: It is a lineup, however you want to slice one through nine.
15:43
SPEAKER_00: We have a better lineup, we have more star power at the top, we have more depth, we're way better defensively.
15:52
SPEAKER_00: We haven't gotten into that conversation yet.
15:54
SPEAKER_00: I'm just talking purely from the mechanics of lineup construction.
15:57
SPEAKER_00: So here's how we feel about the Padgers.
15:59
SPEAKER_00: Here's what we do with the Padgers.
16:00
SPEAKER_00: We don't walk Fernando Tatis Jr.
16:02
SPEAKER_00: is the first thing.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: All right?
16:04
SPEAKER_00: That's number one.
16:06
SPEAKER_00: The reason we don't walk Fernando Tatis Jr.
16:08
SPEAKER_00: is because we just don't walk his ass.
16:13
SPEAKER_00: I don't want Dustin Harris hitting with a runner on first base and nobody out.
16:17
SPEAKER_00: I'll be clear with this.
16:19
SPEAKER_00: I think the difference between facing their two-hitter, Dustin Harris, with nobody on and somebody on is significant.
16:26
SPEAKER_00: If you challenge that guy aggressive, up and in, you're gonna eat his lunch.
16:31
SPEAKER_00: He's looking middle other way.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: Put a runner on first base, he can look middle other way, and then he can take your off speed, he can yank it in the hole in between first and second base because we're playing at double play depth.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: And he's a good fucking runner.
16:43
SPEAKER_00: Now, I just I just made a huge gap there.
16:46
SPEAKER_00: A, B, C, D.
16:47
SPEAKER_00: Did you get that one?
16:49
SPEAKER_00: Now, if there's nobody on, uh we're in a severe advantage because then again, Machado, who would be hitting three, has been downright brutal.
16:59
SPEAKER_00: And then effectively, if you go one, two, three, they do kind of have in some capacity the way I'd look at I'd look at Jackson and Merrill four, and then I'd look at Ty France five, kind of as a leadoff one, two punch.
17:12
SPEAKER_00: Their four five kind of functions as like a one-two to me.
17:16
SPEAKER_00: Am I crazy to say that?
17:18
SPEAKER_00: That they have like a one-two, they're hitting Machado three because they have to, but then when they get back to Merrill and then into Ty France, if that's a sequencing, I see that as like we have two combinations of leadoff two hitters within the first five hitters of the Padres.
17:36
SPEAKER_00: And those are two pieces of bread, though.
17:37
SPEAKER_00: It's a sandwich, and it's a Manny Machado shit sandwich with an ego, uh, you know, the size of whatever fucking aircraft carrier is parked off, you know, the coast of San Diego right now.
17:51
SPEAKER_00: Whatever the biggest one is that serves that military base.
17:54
SPEAKER_00: That's how big Manny Machado's ego is.
17:57
SPEAKER_00: So he hits three.
17:58
SPEAKER_00: But then the point is we get to six, seven, eight, nine.
18:02
SPEAKER_00: Just should be pumping strikes.
18:05
SPEAKER_00: It's really a function of if our pitching staff shows up as it matches up against this lineup, it's just a function of are we throwing strikes?
18:12
SPEAKER_00: If we're not throwing strikes and we're pitching behind in the count, we're in big trouble.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: We're in big trouble.
18:18
SPEAKER_00: And all this hooting and hollering about our lineup being good enough uh ain't worth a damn thing, is probably the easiest way for me to say it.
18:24
SPEAKER_00: It's not worth a damn thing.
18:26
SPEAKER_00: Are is everybody on the same page about how we feel going into this game?
18:30
SPEAKER_00: One because they're gonna we'll take the field.
18:32
SPEAKER_00: Pico Armstrong's gonna lead off.
18:34
SPEAKER_00: Bregman's probably gonna hit two or Suzuki.
18:37
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna go Suzuki or Bregman, Bregman or Suzuki.
18:41
SPEAKER_00: Is Bush gonna hit four?
18:42
SPEAKER_00: Probably.
18:44
SPEAKER_00: Hap probably hits five left-handed.
18:47
SPEAKER_00: They're gonna throw Michael King out there.
18:50
SPEAKER_00: Haven't said shit about him.
18:52
SPEAKER_00: I would guess Horner 6.
18:54
SPEAKER_00: Now, the interesting thing there is do we go do we go Michael Conforto seven?
18:59
SPEAKER_00: Is it DH?
19:01
SPEAKER_00: Do we go Pedro Ramirez?
19:04
SPEAKER_00: Do we use Conforto off the bench?
19:07
SPEAKER_00: You know, Carson Kelly's obviously gonna catch.
19:09
SPEAKER_00: Danzu Swanson's obviously gonna play shortstop.
19:12
SPEAKER_00: So then just the interesting question I have is who DH's?
19:16
SPEAKER_00: Or does Matt or does Matt Shaw play right field and say a Suzuki DH's?
19:20
SPEAKER_00: I think that would be insane.
19:22
SPEAKER_00: You know, but I don't make these decisions.
19:24
SPEAKER_00: And at the time of recording, we haven't even asked who's pitching.
19:27
SPEAKER_00: So it makes all of this very challenging, to be quite honest with you, which is why it's easier to focus on the Padres.
19:32
SPEAKER_00: Talk about them like, you know, don't act like you've been watching every Padres game.
19:37
SPEAKER_00: The Cubs are five and one against the two 2026 Padres.
19:41
SPEAKER_00: Technically, we did have a tiebreaker over him.
19:43
SPEAKER_00: Should should we have been tied at the end of the regular season, but we just played brutal baseball in September.
19:48
SPEAKER_00: You know, I want to say there's a good four or five week stretch there.
19:52
SPEAKER_00: We we blew eight of 12 saves.
19:57
SPEAKER_00: You know, so yeah, we're getting we're packing the backs, we're getting on the charter, we're going to San Diego.
20:02
SPEAKER_00: Some benefits though.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: You know, the weather's gonna be nicer.
20:07
SPEAKER_00: That's a guarantee.
20:08
SPEAKER_00: As I'm saying that though, it's like gorgeous right now in Chicago.
20:10
SPEAKER_00: Sunny, gorgeous, beautiful fall Christ day.
20:13
SPEAKER_00: You know, and I want playoff baseball Wrigley Field.
20:16
SPEAKER_00: So I'm not giving outs here, is what I'm saying.
20:19
SPEAKER_00: I'm not giving, I'm not giving lollipop cupcake outs to the 26 cups for just being yellow belly fucking brutal pussies down the stretch.
20:28
SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying I know we're on the road, but if we were gonna have to go on the road somewhere to play playoff baseball, I don't hate San Diego.
20:36
SPEAKER_00: Any environment you're gonna get is gonna be loud, they'll be waving the towel, you know, the noise meter on the jumbotron, they'll be doing the wave.
20:45
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, every team is it's gonna be loud.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: Tropicana's gonna be loud, guys.
20:51
SPEAKER_00: What I'm saying is how many places are gonna be loud and savvy and breezy and perfect?
20:57
SPEAKER_00: How many places are gonna be loud and you can go for a walk on the beach in the morning?
21:01
SPEAKER_00: How many places are gonna be super loud and you're just getting the world-class geography, or what is it called?
21:08
SPEAKER_00: You look outside your window, and it's just beautiful.
21:11
SPEAKER_00: That's what I'm saying.
21:12
SPEAKER_00: Of all the all things be damned, you know, like it would be much worse, and it will be, assuming we win this series, and then we have to go to Milwaukee, you gotta stay in the haunted hotel, eat bad sausages.
21:27
SPEAKER_00: You know, there's a world out there where it's a little bit worse.
21:31
SPEAKER_00: It's a little bit worse than San Diego.
21:33
SPEAKER_00: So that's that's kind of where that's where I settle on that narrative.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: One, two, uh, I think this one's important here, guys.
21:40
SPEAKER_00: So we'll just talk starting pitching here for a second.
21:42
SPEAKER_00: Now, I would say objectively, as presented by Thirsty Vicaro, the cut we do have a better lineup and we are better defensively, you know, particularly up the middle.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: The difference between Xander Bogartts and Jake Cronenworth and Dan's B.
21:56
SPEAKER_00: Swan and Nico Horner is substantial.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: Now, Ty France is serviceable.
22:00
SPEAKER_00: If not just completely average at first base.
22:02
SPEAKER_00: And Manny Machado, when he gives a shit, and he will give a shit in the wildcard series, um, you know, is one of the best third basemen to ever play third base.
22:11
SPEAKER_00: So, huh.
22:13
SPEAKER_00: You know, and they have speed in the outfield, that's for sure.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: That's for sure.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: Now, I can't I can't confidently talk about the left fielders throwing arm.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: Uh, Merrill's okay, Tati's got a piss missile bet out there in right field.
22:27
SPEAKER_00: And it's a weird ballpark that you benefit from playing it, no different than Wrigley Field.
22:35
SPEAKER_00: You know, you benefit from having the 81 games under your belt at a place like Petco, uh, with the shape and design, I should say, of that outfield fence.
22:45
SPEAKER_00: Now, the nice thing for us, Pete Carmstrong's in center field, so it's like, who do you want to play in right?
22:49
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't really matter.
22:50
SPEAKER_00: You know, like Pete's in center.
22:52
SPEAKER_00: So Pete's gonna make you look like a superstar.
22:55
SPEAKER_00: Pete's gonna make you look wonderful.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: And because they're gonna be throwing Michael King, that means Ian Hap's gonna play left field, which is fine.
23:03
SPEAKER_00: Tyrone Taylor's a very good defender.
23:05
SPEAKER_00: You know, Ian Hap's probably a little better, right?
23:08
SPEAKER_00: Ian Hap's probably a little better in left field is a good argument.
23:12
SPEAKER_00: Now, a question for you guys.
23:14
SPEAKER_00: We debated this.
23:15
SPEAKER_00: Would you start Tyrone Taylor in right field over Suzuki to give yourself the great defense?
23:22
SPEAKER_00: Knowing I can't believe I have hardly even talked about this.
23:24
SPEAKER_00: The Padres bullpen is so good.
23:27
SPEAKER_00: Mason Miller has 130 strikeouts in 70 innings this year.
23:31
SPEAKER_00: That's preposterous.
23:33
SPEAKER_00: And they'll go to him for two innings, and they'll use him back-to-back days.
23:38
SPEAKER_00: Uh, and they got who is I can I can't say these names.
23:41
SPEAKER_00: Adrian Morajan, Moran, the lefty.
23:46
SPEAKER_00: I mean, he's gumby.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: He's gonna pick up the ball all three games.
23:49
SPEAKER_00: You're gonna see all three games you're gonna see him.
23:51
SPEAKER_00: All three games he's gonna come in and see PCA.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: Nice thing is PCA fucking smashes lefties this year.
23:58
SPEAKER_00: So, like, good luck with your matchups.
23:59
SPEAKER_00: You know, the thing I'm I'm a little don't like Mason Miller is such a shutdown guy that we have to get to their starters a little early.
24:09
SPEAKER_00: So let's talk about their starters.
24:10
SPEAKER_00: Number one, obviously Michael King.
24:12
SPEAKER_00: 3.21 ERA on the season.
24:14
SPEAKER_00: Big guy, Boston college guy, drafted by the Miami Marlins, traded to the Yankees.
24:18
SPEAKER_00: Yankees turn around, trade him to the Padres.
24:21
SPEAKER_00: Right?
24:21
SPEAKER_00: Wasn't he part of the Wan Soto thing?
24:23
SPEAKER_00: He's a big right-handed pitcher, he's got sharp stuff.
24:26
SPEAKER_00: Now, the interesting thing about Michael King's stuff is that he throws, ready for this, guys?
24:31
SPEAKER_00: He throws to his glove side and he throws to his arm side.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: He throws predominantly a sinker about 25 to 30 percent of the time.
24:39
SPEAKER_00: And the sinker moves as he's right-handed, it moves to the right.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: That's called arm side.
24:46
SPEAKER_00: If it moves to the left, like a slider or sweeper, both of which he throws, that's glove side.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: Now, Michael King is uniquely good at throwing to the arm and to the glove side.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: Typically, if you're good at one, you're worse at the other.
25:00
SPEAKER_00: It's a compensation to the pronation.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: Does that make sense?
25:04
SPEAKER_00: If I want to pronate and throw a good sinker to my arm side, right on right, think of like a great Greg Maddox sweeping sinker, right?
25:14
SPEAKER_00: Michael King has big time action on his sinker.
25:18
SPEAKER_00: If I want to do that, that typically means I have to compensate, I have to pronate, I have to do something special to get my arm to get it to go that hard arm side.
25:26
SPEAKER_00: What usually happens if you make that trade-off, it's hard to get to the glove side.
25:30
SPEAKER_00: It's hard to throw good sliders, it's hard to go throw good sweepers.
25:34
SPEAKER_00: And so that's where Michael King is unique.
25:37
SPEAKER_00: He has great arm side stuff, great glove side stuff.
25:40
SPEAKER_00: As a result, he's difficult to hit.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: He does not give up many base hits.
25:45
SPEAKER_00: As a result of that, though, because you're trying to do two different opposite things, it's hard to command that, you'd imagine, right?
25:51
SPEAKER_00: It's hard.
25:51
SPEAKER_00: He has really sharp stuff.
25:53
SPEAKER_00: Is it the most precise?
25:55
SPEAKER_00: No.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: And at 70 walks and 180-something innings, that's a big red flag.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: All right.
26:01
SPEAKER_00: So then as we go into this game, it's like he may only give up four hits.
26:04
SPEAKER_00: There's a good chance he walks three or four guys, though.
26:07
SPEAKER_00: There's a good chance in these circumstances, you know, adrenaline's pumping.
26:12
SPEAKER_00: Now, our big test is can we get on the board crooked number first times through the first two times through the lineup?
26:20
SPEAKER_00: Because once we get to the third time through the lineup, if we haven't gotten on the board yet, now we're going to introduce the fact that Mason Miller's lurking, and we're going to go out and ask our starting pitcher uh, you know, to do what I think is pretty unfair.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: You know, if we keep them to three runs or less, then I'm very confident about winning.
26:38
SPEAKER_00: You know, and I think asking the offense, can you score four runs in the first seven innings of a baseball game?
26:44
SPEAKER_00: You know, regular season, that's a tall order.
26:46
SPEAKER_00: This is postseason, and I think that's the way this lineup's gonna have to rock and roll, you know, to have success here.
26:53
SPEAKER_00: Because it's just like, do you even want me to go to our bullpen?
26:59
SPEAKER_00: I I think Palencia does have his moment.
27:01
SPEAKER_00: I think Palencia has his moment, or at least is presented with the opportunity to have his moment.
27:05
SPEAKER_00: And I think it's gonna come in like the sixth inning or the seventh inning.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: I think it'll be the first guy up game one.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: Now, I don't even know if it's reasonable for me to now talk about Mason Miller after having just said that about Palencia.
27:19
SPEAKER_00: Mason Miller is so good.
27:21
SPEAKER_00: We're in trouble.
27:22
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think they probably have four relievers who are better than ours.
27:27
SPEAKER_00: So all of this means what?
27:30
SPEAKER_00: PCA you gotta be ready to go, baby.
27:32
SPEAKER_00: Of course he's gonna be ready to go.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: And I think guys have to be sensible about you know, here's what you're gonna get from Michael King.
27:40
SPEAKER_00: To start the account, you are going to get a, you guessed it, you're gonna get a heavy, you're gonna get a heavy sinker.
27:48
SPEAKER_00: Now he may pitch you as a ready inside, may throw you something high and in, right?
27:53
SPEAKER_00: Or as a lefty may elevate a fastball.
27:56
SPEAKER_00: I don't think he throws first pitch changeup.
27:59
SPEAKER_00: He may throw get me over.
28:01
SPEAKER_00: This is where the he has a wide range of break on his on his sweeper.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: So when they like as when they grade it and they show you what it looks like, it's a very stretched, thin, wide oval.
28:16
SPEAKER_00: There's not a lot of vertical depth.
28:18
SPEAKER_00: It's a very similar pitch from the perspective of is it is it gonna drop?
28:22
SPEAKER_00: Not that much.
28:23
SPEAKER_00: In fact, relative to major league average, his breaking ball has very little drop, but it does have a wide range of horizontal break.
28:33
SPEAKER_00: Some of it a little bit, sometimes a lot.
28:36
SPEAKER_00: That's all manipulation on his end.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: How much does he want to snap off?
28:40
SPEAKER_00: So early in the count, you're probably gonna just see like a little bit.
28:43
SPEAKER_00: Two strikes, though, you're gonna see him sweep it to his glove side more.
28:47
SPEAKER_00: You're gonna see him like what I guess is the common vernacular would be expand that zone, would be make the strike zone bigger, you know, get you something to chase.
28:57
SPEAKER_00: So he's that type of guy, and he's he can manipulate to his glove side extremely well.
29:03
SPEAKER_00: Um, and then in our mind, then it's like, all right, well, I know he's I know he's gonna be, I know he walks a lot of guys, I know he throws a ton of pitches, he's out hunting strikeouts, he's difficult to hit.
29:15
SPEAKER_00: So then I'm just asking you, maniac, this is a good moment for you to just think about you as a baseball player.
29:21
SPEAKER_00: Would you be up in the box more?
29:23
SPEAKER_00: Would you stand a little bit up in the box, a little closer to the plate?
29:28
SPEAKER_00: Maybe that's something I would do.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to, I don't want to throw I don't like the idea of throwing off guys, you know, footwork and all that shit.
29:36
SPEAKER_00: But I'm just I'm thinking backwards from the perspective of I'll tell you what you're gonna get on OO.
29:41
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be one of two things.
29:43
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be a very hard sinker, or it's gonna be a tight little breaker.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: Will get me over here here.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: You go.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: Now off the breaker, he's gonna do a whole bunch of shit.
29:53
SPEAKER_00: He can throw change up, he can make the breaker bigger, he can make it tighter, he can throw high.
30:01
SPEAKER_00: You know.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: So do you get in the box, look for that little spinning cement ball?
30:06
SPEAKER_00: I don't hate that.
30:07
SPEAKER_00: If you're P.
30:08
SPEAKER_00: Crow Armstrong, I don't hate that at all.
30:12
SPEAKER_00: Or Ian Hap in particular.
30:15
SPEAKER_00: It'll just be interesting to see, and this is what I'm most interested in.
30:18
SPEAKER_00: I'll know right away with Michael King within the first two, three batters of the game, is just the effect that Dreddland has on his sinker.
30:28
SPEAKER_00: Quickly.
30:29
SPEAKER_00: The more jacked up you are, the less the ball sinks.
30:32
SPEAKER_00: The more relaxed you are, the more the ball sinks.
30:34
SPEAKER_00: Now he's been in this situation before.
30:36
SPEAKER_00: I think he's thrown 15 postseason innings.
30:38
SPEAKER_00: He's done quite well, you know, three ARA, maybe.
30:41
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
30:42
SPEAKER_00: It's like how much you want me to break down 15 innings of tape.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: But he's he's looked good in those situations.
30:47
SPEAKER_00: It's just, I'm not, I'm not even predicting this, I'm just saying for the style of pitcher he is, playoff games, particularly the first playoff game, if the adrenaline is there, the ball will be a little bit flatter than typical.
31:02
SPEAKER_00: Now it will be harder, but it's okay, fine.
31:06
SPEAKER_00: Um I'd much rather have a flat 97 than a darting 96, if that makes sense.
31:12
SPEAKER_00: And so that's just something I'm looking at, Michael King, and I'm going through the first two, three hitters, I'll probably have a pretty good sense you will two.
31:18
SPEAKER_00: If he's missing up and away, that's a really good thing.
31:21
SPEAKER_00: If he's locked and dialed and you see that late sharp break, um, yeah, I mean, then you get Palencia up.
31:30
SPEAKER_00: You know, and then what do we do from a pitching strategy?
31:32
SPEAKER_00: You know, game one, obviously I've been on this forever.
31:35
SPEAKER_00: Gossman, I want to see I just want to see him because I know he's got this the strikeout swing and miss stuff, and I know you find yourself in these high-leverage situations where the onus and the pressure is very much on the on the hitter, you know, and that the opportunity to press is very real.
31:48
SPEAKER_00: I think Gossman gives you an opportunity to be very aggressive, puts the defense in play, you know, not a lot of pussy footing around, and I like that.
31:58
SPEAKER_00: And I think there's advantages to that.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: I'd like to see the Cubs lean into that a little bit.
32:03
SPEAKER_00: Now, game two with the Padres, then it just kind of floats floats back to this, and we'll pr preview this in, you know, recap game one in in greater detail, but just stuff to think about as it sets up here, guys, for game two is that the Padres are very likely going to start in, I believe, Nick Pavetta.
32:21
SPEAKER_00: Am I fair to say that?
32:23
SPEAKER_00: He's only pitched about 45 innings.
32:25
SPEAKER_00: I think he's made eight starts since coming back, he's been out most of the season.
32:30
SPEAKER_00: But he's come back and he's looked good, and he fits into the similar profile of what we were talking about with King.
32:35
SPEAKER_00: Now, the difference is he's a little bit more over the top, and it's just a little bit if it's a little bit different of a look, but it's hard, firm, nasty shit, is what I'm saying.
32:43
SPEAKER_00: You know, like Clay Holmes has hard, firm stuff.
32:46
SPEAKER_00: He can be flat, he can be a little flatter than than Michael King.
32:50
SPEAKER_00: I think Michael King's a better pitcher than Clay Holmes.
32:52
SPEAKER_00: Uh, where Clay Holmes excels is that he's got really great arm side vert run, really great arm side.
33:00
SPEAKER_00: I shouldn't say horizontal, really great on the x-axis, his shit's blowing out the fucking chart.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: If that makes any sense at all, I'm sorry.
33:09
SPEAKER_00: I know it doesn't.
33:10
SPEAKER_00: I know it doesn't.
33:12
SPEAKER_00: Where Clay Holmes is elite, the ball's sailing out of his hand.
33:17
SPEAKER_00: Where Michael King is different is he's throwing bowling balls to his arm side and then snapping off similarly nasty breaking stuff.
33:27
SPEAKER_00: So it's basically two two different types of two seam fastballs would be the best way to compare it.
33:32
SPEAKER_00: Now I think Nick Nick Pivette is a little bit more in the strike zone, I believe.
33:37
SPEAKER_00: If I recall the king.
33:39
SPEAKER_00: And I believe he's and I believe it's sharpened down.
33:42
SPEAKER_00: So we'll preview that.
33:43
SPEAKER_00: It'll look in ahead.
33:44
SPEAKER_00: But the interesting thing is that Michael King is an inning eater and will throw a ton of pitches.
33:50
SPEAKER_00: And I'm interested to see how much the Padres go to the bullpen right away in game one, knowing that they're probably going to be in the bullpen in game five or in the fifth inning of game two.
34:03
SPEAKER_00: So there is some weird advantage to the Cubs here where I'm saying if we can get to Michael King in the fifth inning, which I know is a preposterous ask, but basically what I'm hoping for is PCA to hit a home run in his third plate appearance of the game or a double with runners on.
34:18
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I want it, I want it once we're getting into the third part of the order to be like we have laid a series haymaker into Michael King, and then I want to force that decision.
34:30
SPEAKER_00: How quickly do they start burning their bullets, knowing that they've got a guy who's only pitched less than 50 innings?
34:35
SPEAKER_00: Now I know Clay Holmes fits in a similar category of not having huge body of work this season.
34:41
SPEAKER_00: I think Pivotas is about half as Clay Holmes.
34:44
SPEAKER_00: So there's a there's my long-winded take on that.
34:48
SPEAKER_00: On how their bullpen lines up with game two and the implications it could have for us in game one.
34:53
SPEAKER_00: Now, as I say all this, let's just be realistic about our expectations.
34:57
SPEAKER_00: Like we are prepared for this to go on the road to play against the Padres.
35:01
SPEAKER_00: I think we have the absolute best defense I've ever seen in my life.
35:05
SPEAKER_00: The fact this defense exists is changes my opinion of what it means to have Major League defense.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: I mean, just how routine and big league everything is.
35:15
SPEAKER_00: Now, and I also think that we have the right players for the pitches we're about to see in this series.
35:21
SPEAKER_00: As I'm sitting here breaking down Michael King, it's like, yep, Braggman's approach for that is perfect.
35:25
SPEAKER_00: I think Michael Bush's approach is literally perfect for these moments.
35:29
SPEAKER_00: Same thing with Say Suzuki.
35:31
SPEAKER_00: What I'm talking about are guys that are totally comfortable working a count in the same respect, unloading on the first pitch of an abat.
35:39
SPEAKER_00: You know, I don't need to say much about Pete.
35:42
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, Ian Hap has been just like through the depths of hell with this fan base.
35:46
SPEAKER_00: A lot of you guys listening to this absolutely hate his guts.
35:49
SPEAKER_00: Uh, fine.
35:51
SPEAKER_00: I will not sell you on any other fact than we both agree, though, that he can turn a game around with a three-run homer as easily as anybody else in the lineup, not named Pete Carl Armstrong.
36:00
SPEAKER_00: So I'm not ruling that out.
36:02
SPEAKER_00: And I'm and I'm certainly not going to coach myself into uh, you know, negative sentiment towards him going into this playoff series.
36:10
SPEAKER_00: Now, what I think is really interesting is that we can start Suzuki in right field, and I'm wondering if we can move him to DH later in the game for like a Conforto and then bring in a Tyrone Taylor as a defensive replacement.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: That's what I mean when I say we have great depth.
36:28
SPEAKER_00: You know, another good example would just be they're gonna match up righty lefty.
36:35
SPEAKER_00: The fact that we have two lefties between Conforto and Pedro Ramirez.
36:40
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, and then obviously who's on the bench then, Matt, Sean, Miguel Omaya?
36:47
SPEAKER_00: I'm comfortable with where we're at on the bench, is what I'm trying to say.
36:50
SPEAKER_00: And I think very much so we have a significant advantage, not just in infield play.
36:56
SPEAKER_00: It's probably our biggest advantage, to be honest with you.
36:58
SPEAKER_00: Our infield plays so much better than theirs.
37:01
SPEAKER_00: But we also have a significant advantage.
37:04
SPEAKER_00: Um we have a significant advantage when it comes to, in my opinion, run of the bases.
37:11
SPEAKER_00: Where am I going with this one, dude?
37:13
SPEAKER_00: Outfield play, I think, is a little is is probably a little bit more, even just because they've got great speed, you know, as good as PCA is, they're very good in all three positions.
37:26
SPEAKER_00: You know, we're elite in center, we're very good in left.
37:29
SPEAKER_00: Depends on who takes the field in the right.
37:31
SPEAKER_00: What I was gonna say is that our probably our the two greatest margins for us is six through nine in the batting order.
37:37
SPEAKER_00: Like our six through nine, they're Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogard, Shay Cronenworth, like whoever's catching for him, is um it's just like it's objectively bad compared, you know, and in relative to what the Cubs are gonna do.
37:53
SPEAKER_00: Six to nine.
37:54
SPEAKER_00: That's probably our first advantage.
37:56
SPEAKER_00: The second biggest advantage is in field play.
37:59
SPEAKER_00: Now, where our weak spots comparing their bullpen makes me feel uncomfortable, if we were being honest.
38:05
SPEAKER_00: The other weak spot is that they're 16 and 3 over their last 19 games, and they're absolutely red hot.
38:11
SPEAKER_00: So I would just ask you, who would you rather be in this situation?
38:16
SPEAKER_00: We have the better nine.
38:19
SPEAKER_00: Our starting pitching is a tick below theirs, and they have a significantly better bullpen.
38:25
SPEAKER_00: So that's up to I mean, this is honestly just a very basic question.
38:30
SPEAKER_00: I don't we don't need to get too philosophical here, and I'm not sitting here making demands or setting expectations, anything other than I'm just trying to frame the playoff series the best that I can about where I think the advantages are and how you should feel as these guys are coming to the box.
38:44
SPEAKER_00: You know, so and again, and I'm not trying to make light of their six through nine as much as I'm trying to point out the fact that compared to watching the Cubs six through nine and knowing how competitive and balanced we can be in those positions, I think it's I don't think it's night and day to compare what the Padres have.
39:00
SPEAKER_00: Now, in the same respect, I think what they do one, two and four-five, is just unbelievably good right now.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: Like I'm not, I I know the left fielder, the new kid Dustin Dustin Harris.
39:13
SPEAKER_00: I knew he's brand new MSC for the Padres, which is very easy, as I said off the top, though.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: They're 16 and 3 with this guy hitting two.
39:21
SPEAKER_00: So they obviously like it.
39:22
SPEAKER_00: When they put look at the batting order, they obviously feel very good about it.
39:26
SPEAKER_00: You know?
39:26
SPEAKER_00: So if you're going Tantish Jr., who's been sensational second half, into somebody that they they see as a spark plug, Scotty.
39:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, Scotty Puppin's all jacked up.
39:38
SPEAKER_00: He's telling me we gotta get going.
39:40
SPEAKER_00: I just I I absolutely agree with him.
39:42
SPEAKER_00: We do need to get going.
39:43
SPEAKER_00: Um, but the other thing I'd point out too is just how then going into Jackson, Maryland, Ty France, four-five is kind of like another combination of one, two, one, two.
39:52
SPEAKER_00: And so just think to yourself about how you'd approach that.
39:54
SPEAKER_00: What does that mean?
39:56
SPEAKER_00: You know, so I would say predictions going in.
39:59
SPEAKER_00: I know I'm gonna be back doing post-game breakdowns from game one.
40:03
SPEAKER_00: So that's kind of where, you know, it's a little we haven't started the playoffs, so we're just speaking in, I suppose, generalities about what we would expect to happen.
40:13
SPEAKER_00: So I would expect this to go three games.
40:16
SPEAKER_00: I would expect one of these games, the Cubs offense, to break out.
40:19
SPEAKER_00: I'd expect one game, the Cubs offense, to completely disappear.
40:23
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, and somewhere in between, we really need the ballpen to not shit their pants a series.
40:29
SPEAKER_00: And there's stretches of greatness that whoever's been down there has put together this season.
40:36
SPEAKER_00: Now I'm inclined to forget that we do have a stretch of blowing eight of 12 saves over the last four weeks.
40:43
SPEAKER_00: Like I'm inclined to say, forget about all that stuff.
40:45
SPEAKER_00: And that the moment's different, Zavera Sean's gonna step up.
40:49
SPEAKER_00: Oh, I can't believe I just did that.
40:50
SPEAKER_00: That Ryan Rollison was made throughout the season for these moments.
40:54
SPEAKER_00: You know, that's a difficult thing to accept, but it's a situation we're in.
41:00
SPEAKER_00: Now, where could we be cute and creative as I look at the series?
41:04
SPEAKER_00: The only thing I found interesting was would Shoda or David Peterson, this is crazy thought, can they pitch?
41:15
SPEAKER_00: Can they probably not?
41:17
SPEAKER_00: In fact, I even just said that, like I'm losing my breath here.
41:20
SPEAKER_00: Is there any situation where it would be advantageous for those guys to pitch in the fifth inning of one of these games?
41:30
SPEAKER_00: Either Peterson or Shoda.
41:32
SPEAKER_00: And who would you feel more comfortable with?
41:34
SPEAKER_00: Both pitching to about a 370 area this season, showed 175Ks and 175 innings, you know, Peterson a little bit more command and and predictability, but absolutely no dominance polish should have nothing to do with the playoff mound, to be quite honest with you.
41:49
SPEAKER_00: So those are the thoughts that I have in my head as as this series kicks off.
41:55
SPEAKER_00: Or do we go just give it to Gossman, give it to Clay Holmes, have Matt Boyd for game three?
42:05
SPEAKER_00: Hmm.
42:07
SPEAKER_00: Hmm.
42:08
SPEAKER_00: Here's the last argument I'll make because some people are saying I want to see Matt Boyd pitch game one.
42:12
SPEAKER_00: The Padres have like a 400 OBD against left-handed pitching in September.
42:19
SPEAKER_00: It's like Manny Machado blows, but if we wanted him to be good, you would serve him 94 miles an hour from the left side, is what I think.
42:30
SPEAKER_00: I I could be wrong.
42:33
SPEAKER_00: I could be wrong.
42:34
SPEAKER_00: Now, predictions this does go three games.
42:37
SPEAKER_00: And my prediction is that the Cubs win this, obviously.
42:40
SPEAKER_00: My my prediction is that the Cubs win this.
42:43
SPEAKER_00: So I I hope we bang out like 9-10 in the first five, six innings of this playoff series, and just step on their throats, and I don't even have to hear the Mason Miller strike out stuff.
42:57
SPEAKER_00: I don't to forget it even happened.
42:59
SPEAKER_00: That's in reality the best way this happens.
43:02
SPEAKER_00: The more realistic thing, and it tell me I'm wrong.
43:07
SPEAKER_00: Tell me I'm crazy.
43:08
SPEAKER_00: I'm interested in what you guys think.
43:09
SPEAKER_00: The more realistic thing to me is that we play like a 3-2 game, game one.
43:15
SPEAKER_00: Someone hand whoever loses that game handily wins game two.
43:20
SPEAKER_00: And then I think Daniel Palencia is coming in seventh inning, one out runners on first and second of a tie baseball game in game three.
43:27
SPEAKER_00: I just don't know what the score is.
43:28
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it's 2-2 or 4-4 or 3-3, 5-5.
43:33
SPEAKER_00: But I think this series is going to come down to Daniel Palencia in a seventh inning with runners already on base, because Craig didn't give them the benefit of the doubt or whatever, the whatever, wherever that hypothetical lives.
43:47
SPEAKER_00: Now, I will be back.
43:49
SPEAKER_00: This is why I think I'm being so specific.
43:53
SPEAKER_00: I will be back after game one.
43:55
SPEAKER_00: I it this nine o'clock stuff is tough because I want to go right after, but I know that if I say I go right after, then I'm not going to sleep till like three or four o'clock in the morning because I'm going to be all, I'm just going to be so fired up.
44:10
SPEAKER_00: So we're going to play it by year, friends.
44:13
SPEAKER_00: But we will have a sh at the very latest.
44:15
SPEAKER_00: The Cubs play on Tuesday night at 9 p.m.
44:18
SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm not doing bearish predictions right now.
44:21
SPEAKER_00: The Cubs play Tuesday at 9 p.m.
44:24
SPEAKER_00: And then on by at the very latest Wednesday, 8 a.m., we'll have a reaction into updates.
44:31
SPEAKER_00: And I think we're going to do that for every game in the playoffs this season.
44:35
SPEAKER_00: Because that's it's actually that's good stuff.
44:38
SPEAKER_00: And I like doing that.
44:39
SPEAKER_00: I think now's the time.
44:40
SPEAKER_00: Every pitch matters.
44:41
SPEAKER_00: We've earned it.
44:42
SPEAKER_00: You know, what do you want me to say?
44:44
SPEAKER_00: Say no pep talk.
44:45
SPEAKER_00: I know college football coach.
44:48
SPEAKER_00: I'll just say if you followed along, if you're a maniac, if you're somebody who gives a shit about the Cubs over 162, you know, the next couple days are really special.
44:56
SPEAKER_00: However, you want to see it.
44:58
SPEAKER_00: It's not Christmas.
44:59
SPEAKER_00: We're not going to a concert.
45:01
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, there's a good chance we end up heartbroken and enraged.
45:06
SPEAKER_00: But there's also a chance that, you know, this ends up being a season we remember for the rest of our lives.
45:11
SPEAKER_00: And in the opportunity there and the payoff there is so high and substantial that I'm I'm willing to endure the pain.
45:18
SPEAKER_00: I'll put myself out there.
45:20
SPEAKER_00: You know, I will let these guys wreak havoc on my state of mind, knowing that the payoff is I get to be a world champion if this goes the right way.
45:29
SPEAKER_00: And this going the right way means the bats are red hot.
45:32
SPEAKER_00: It means PCH dropping dick.
45:34
SPEAKER_00: Alex Bregman is doing the revenge tour thing.
45:38
SPEAKER_00: Michael Bush is, you know, scorching hot at the most important time of the season.
45:43
SPEAKER_00: There's a whole way where this works out, guys.
45:45
SPEAKER_00: I'm not crazy.
45:46
SPEAKER_00: I'm telling you there's an opportunity here.
45:48
SPEAKER_00: We just play great baseball and ride that shit in the World Series.
45:51
SPEAKER_00: It's just obstacle number one, you know, is the San Diego Padres team.
45:55
SPEAKER_00: We are objectively better than one through nine.
45:58
SPEAKER_00: Uh and you know, you want to make the starting pitch an argument, go ahead and have it.
46:02
SPEAKER_00: But we got a better defense, we got a better lineup, we got a better bench, a higher paid manager, I'll guarantee you that.
46:10
SPEAKER_00: So why not us?
46:11
SPEAKER_00: Why not us?
46:12
SPEAKER_00: Uh in the meantime, share the show, review the show.
46:15
SPEAKER_00: You know, if you learned anything today, argue with the buddy and win that argument.
46:19
SPEAKER_00: That's the most important thing to me.
46:21
SPEAKER_00: Uh, and then when you're done winning that argument, go into your fridge and grab a thirsty Vicero, which is a Mexican-style soda with a signature spicy finish, it's all bite no rattle, available in 12 ounces and 16 ounces and three bold flavors on Amazon that ships directly to your front door.
46:35
SPEAKER_00: All you have to do is just go to Amazon and order it.
46:38
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, if that's not easy enough.
46:41
SPEAKER_00: If that's not easy enough, we don't deserve to have a parade.
46:44
SPEAKER_00: Do you know what I mean?
46:45
SPEAKER_00: So until next time, I'll be back after game one.
46:48
SPEAKER_00: I sincerely love you guys, and I mean it from the bottom of my heart, go to the body.