Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 325: This Weather Whiplash Continues — Here’s Your Summer Forecast with Gary Lezak

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325: This Weather Whiplash Continues — Here’s Your Summer Forecast with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  We're welcoming Gary Lezak back onto the podcast once again to
• 0:03
  come and give us a updated long term weather report and what we
• 0:09
  are seeing across the plains right now.
• 0:11
  Gary talks quite a bit about the snow that we saw in Colorado and
• 0:16
  Western Kansas over this past week.
• 0:19
  We recorded this on Wednesday, May 6th and you guys are hearing
• 0:23
  it for the first time on Monday. So we're talking about the snow
• 0:26
  and then we're talking about the heat wave that's coming after
• 0:28
  the snow. Then we're talking thinking
• 0:30
  about how this is going to affect the weather pattern as it
• 0:32
  goes into summer, what that means.
• 0:34
  And then hot topic for the day, we're talking drought and we're
• 0:37
  talking El Nino. What is going on with those two
• 0:41
  things? He gives us an updated report
• 0:43
  with them and what we can continue to expect to see over
• 0:46
  the coming months across cattle country.
• 0:49
  Before we hop into today's podcast with Gary, if you're
• 0:51
  watching on YouTube, make sure you take a second to hit that
• 0:53
  subscribe button and like this episode.
• 0:55
  If you're watching on any of our other podcast platforms, make
• 0:57
  sure you take a second to go follow the show, rate and review
• 1:00
  it and share it with a friend. If you enjoyed today's episode,
• 1:02
  without further ado, let's go ahead and hear from Gary Lazak.
• 1:08
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 1:11
  the latest livestock markets industry insights and the
• 1:14
  updates shaping agriculture today.
• 1:17
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 1:20
  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
• 1:23
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:30
  Gary, welcome back to the podcast once again.
• 1:34
  How is life in Colorado treating you?
• 1:38
  In snowy Colorado. Very snowy Colorado.
• 1:42
  Yeah, I know. We just had about 7 inches of
• 1:46
  snow. We're almost at that point,
• 1:48
  which is at a significant number.
• 1:49
  I'll come up and tell you about it in just a second.
• 1:52
  But it's snowing, it's cold. One day I'm going to a concert.
• 1:56
  It's the Youngblood concert. I don't know if you know who
• 1:59
  Youngblood is, Yes. I know who young blood is.
• 2:02
  Oh my God, you know, you know young blood, you're young.
• 2:05
  Sonny just walked in. But the concerts at Red Rocks,
• 2:09
  it's at Red Rocks. If you're outside on Monday,
• 2:13
  knowing today, if it were today, it would not be good.
• 2:15
  But Monday it's going to be about 80°.
• 2:18
  Oh, it's looking forward to. It wow.
• 2:21
  Talk about a little bit of weather whiplash that Colorado's
• 2:25
  getting right now, from snowing almost 7 inches over the past
• 2:30
  two days to 80° by the time this podcast episode is going to come
• 2:34
  out on Monday, which is bonkers. And it was 75° just a couple
• 2:38
  days before this. Jeez Louise.
• 2:41
  Well, this snow, talk to me about it like this snow is.
• 2:46
  It's the the beginning of May. It's just like the spring
• 2:49
  crazies, right? Like crazy things happen with
• 2:52
  the weather in the month of like May.
• 2:54
  I feel like it always happens, right?
• 2:56
  Because it's just the way it is. But tell me about the snow.
• 2:59
  What's what's going on with Colorado getting almost 7 inches
• 3:02
  of snow today? As you know, we predicted to be
• 3:05
  a crazy March. We had March weather Madness
• 3:08
  during March Madness and basketball we had April.
• 3:12
  Then it ups and downs and severe weather and now early May snow
• 3:16
  here in in Colorado. It is not unusual to have an
• 3:19
  early May snow in Colorado. And here in the Denver area, we
• 3:24
  average about 1 inch of snow during May.
• 3:28
  So this is going to be above average, but it does happen
• 3:32
  every couple years or so. So it's not extremely unusual.
• 3:36
  However, this snow is directly related to what we're bringing
• 3:40
  you a Cattle USA on this podcast.
• 3:44
  And for so many of you out there, a lot of you farmers out
• 3:47
  there are starting to get the LRC model from Weather 2020 and
• 3:53
  the links will be on there for you to get the discount through
• 3:56
  this podcast that Lauren will tell you about near the end.
• 3:59
  If you have that product, you would know far in advance that
• 4:03
  this was possible. If you looked at the model back
• 4:07
  in January or February and then did an analysis in May and went
• 4:12
  to our snow forecast, it would have shown and it did show since
• 4:17
  January that Cinco de Mayo and May 6th are the most likely days
• 4:22
  to have snow. In fact, it predicted 5 inches
• 4:25
  of snow. We're up to 7 inches now.
• 4:27
  How did the model do that and why is this important for you as
• 4:30
  a farmer? You can plan for the potential
• 4:34
  late frost or freeze that's happening way ahead of time and
• 4:38
  maybe delayed planting like a lot of farmers did.
• 4:41
  And there's lots of repercussions by knowing this,
• 4:45
  by knowing and not knowing. If you don't know, then you just
• 4:49
  blindly think that this is just random, but it's not.
• 4:53
  So it was in our forecast months ago.
• 4:55
  And how do we do it? I don't.
• 4:58
  I could probably just tell you, Lauren, it's proprietary
• 5:02
  information. I'm not going to tell you how we
• 5:03
  do it. And honestly, in the future, if
• 5:07
  you're in early, you'll know how we do it because you're
• 5:09
  listening today. But in the future, I might just
• 5:11
  say it's proprietary information because we've been trying to
• 5:16
  share it with the world for a long time.
• 5:18
  The pattern is cycling and regularly back in December,
• 5:22
  December 1st, 2nd, 3rd in the first cycle of this pattern, a
• 5:26
  weather pattern very similar to this one.
• 5:29
  In fact, I'm going to be posting on LinkedIn a whole article by
• 5:32
  today or tomorrow, as soon as I get it written, showing the
• 5:36
  pattern that happened on December 2nd, 3rd is almost
• 5:41
  identical to the pattern that's happening now.
• 5:43
  OK, Is it just arbitrary? No, as we've been discussing,
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  it's much more ordered than a meteorologist may think.
• 5:52
  The pattern this year is about an 11 week cycle, 11 weeks long,
• 5:57
  and that's about 77 days, December 3rd.
• 6:03
  We're recording this podcast on May 6th.
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  December 3rd is 100 and see how many 154 days after December
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  3rd. 154 / 2 is what 77 exactly 11 week cycle.
• 6:24
  And if you've been listening since January when we identified
• 6:27
  this, we said, hey, it's about 10/11/12 week cycle and here it
• 6:31
  is. So the pattern that happens in
• 6:34
  December just returned. It will return again in about 77
• 6:38
  days, give or take a few days. It's not going to snow when it
• 6:41
  returns again because 77 days from now it's added up is May
• 6:45
  the 6th. We're recording this.
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  So June 6th is 31 days, July 6th is 61 one days, 71 days will be
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  July 16th. So July 22nd would be the time
• 6:58
  frame for this part of the pattern to be going back
• 7:01
  through. What does that tell you?
• 7:03
  Very good chance. The middle part of July when you
• 7:05
  think it's going to get really hot, there will be a cold front
• 7:07
  sweeping across the plains with some thunderstorms, no snow, no
• 7:11
  snow. Even in the mountains.
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  It's too late. It's in summer, but a cold spell
• 7:14
  will come through in the middle of July, July twenty 20th or so,
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  July 15th to 25th. What happens after that that if
• 7:21
  we all remember, if you've been listening from week to week,
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  Lauren, remember how we had the prediction of the first half of
• 7:27
  August, late July being a major heat wave.
• 7:30
  What's next in the next 10 to 15 days?
• 7:32
  Watch as we go towards the middle of May to the 20 big warm
• 7:37
  spells are going to start setting up, which means that's
• 7:40
  right on schedule, which means the end of July and early August
• 7:43
  heat wave is still right on schedule.
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  So the snowstorm is not going to be a snowstorm in July, but it's
• 7:48
  going to be a little cool spell. The heat that comes after is
• 7:51
  going to be cycling back through to the fact that it's cycling so
• 7:55
  regularly. We have confidence and that
• 7:57
  allows you as the farmer, as the cattle rancher, to make plans
• 8:01
  which weeks will be wet, which weeks will be dry?
• 8:03
  Could there be snow on May the 6th?
• 8:05
  The answers are there. And for what we charge for this
• 8:09
  tool is if you make one profitable decision, it'll pay
• 8:13
  10 times for that tool. And over the years, as you learn
• 8:18
  more and have confidence in this, you'll make 1015
• 8:21
  profitable decisions per year, which is 1000 to $50,000
• 8:25
  decisions, 1000 to $1 million decisions, depending on the
• 8:29
  company. You make 10 good ones and you're
• 8:31
  a big company. It's $10 million in decisions
• 8:34
  based on using the LRC. So we talked about the snow
• 8:39
  happening now and what that's going to look like for summer,
• 8:43
  the heat wave coming, how all of those intersect.
• 8:45
  I want to talk a little bit about El Nino.
• 8:48
  It's everyone's. I can't look anywhere and
• 8:51
  someone's not talking about it right now.
• 8:53
  So give me the rundown on it and your thoughts there and its
• 8:57
  effect on what we're seeing in the weather right now.
• 9:00
  It's interesting, El Nino here we are.
• 9:02
  There's a very long range forecast out there for El Nino,
• 9:05
  OK. So there's lots of hype about
• 9:08
  it. Super El Nino is coming.
• 9:11
  OK, So, so these predictions are just based on what the models
• 9:15
  are also saying. The other models, not the LRC
• 9:17
  model, but El Nino, which is the warming of the tropical Pacific
• 9:21
  Ocean, is in the progress of developing now.
• 9:24
  It is not an El Nino yet. Some people may by the end of
• 9:28
  the day say, wow, this snow storm is an El Nino storm.
• 9:31
  I'm like, no, it's an LRC storm. It's El Nino hasn't even started
• 9:35
  yet. Don't tell me it's El Nino yet.
• 9:37
  Now, by the fall, by Midsummer to late summer into the fall, El
• 9:43
  Nino is likely going to be evolving and and getting
• 9:46
  stronger. So in other words, the water in
• 9:48
  the tropical Pacific Ocean is going to get warmer and warmer
• 9:50
  and warmer. Maybe it will be a super El
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  Nino, but what does that mean? What does that mean for for
• 9:57
  Kansas, Nebraska, for Southern California?
• 10:01
  In Southern California, they're going to say El Nino, Super El
• 10:04
  Nino. It's going to be a wet winter,
• 10:07
  get ready for floods and horrible mud slides, and it's
• 10:10
  going to be super wet. There's an increased probability
• 10:14
  of that in Southern California, but it depends on how the LRC
• 10:18
  sets up. El Nino is extremely important
• 10:20
  where it impacts each, how it impacts each location and where
• 10:25
  those impacts are will still depend on where the LRC sets up
• 10:29
  next fall. And I know I talked a little
• 10:31
  about about this, a lot about this.
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  The LRC is a centerpiece of the big atmosphere puzzle and Enzo,
• 10:37
  which is El Nino Southern Oscillation index and Arctic
• 10:40
  Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and the PNA
• 10:44
  etcetera, MJO and other indexes. Those are influences on
• 10:48
  something bigger that's going on.
• 10:50
  See is this bigger thing that is going on?
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  So yes, El Nino is likely a strong El Nino as possible.
• 10:58
  Is it going to be the Super El Nino that they're talking about?
• 11:00
  Maybe. But what does that really mean?
• 11:03
  So wow, there's going to be an El Nino this winter.
• 11:07
  People will make assumptions on what that means, but this is
• 11:10
  what? What more is it you see as just
• 11:13
  just hype? I mean a lot of.
• 11:15
  People are talking about it for the summer, like I think a lot
• 11:18
  of conversations that we've had are talking about on Nino and
• 11:21
  its impacts on summer. So that's an interesting.
• 11:23
  Tape El Nino will have little impact on summer, but it will
• 11:28
  have a big impact on the tropics.
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  If it is developing by August and September when we're going
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  to peak hurricane season, then the southern latitude jet stream
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  usually isn't strengthened when there's a an El Nino.
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  There's some question as what this will mean because it is
• 11:44
  going to be summer, The impacts from El Nino are in the tropics
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  elsewhere. It's not going to be felt until
• 11:51
  winter, but what it does is it reduces the chance of having a
• 11:56
  significant hurricane season. There's still maybe one or two
• 11:59
  or three major hurricanes, but we're predicting weather 2020,
• 12:02
  the most accurate hurricane prediction system in the world,
• 12:06
  to 22 to 2024, three years in a row.
• 12:09
  The LRC itself was able to be #1 so we're predicting 812 named
• 12:16
  tropical systems this summer. During hurricane season in the
• 12:20
  Atlantic basin, the average is 14, so 8 to 12 is under average.
• 12:24
  But we're also still predicting 2 to 3 majors and one target.
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  It's going to be the Western Gulf around the Texas, Louisiana
• 12:32
  area. 1 target is Florida and then there's another target for
• 12:37
  the for the Gulf. All three of those are in our
• 12:39
  guide. That's the hurricane season
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  forecast guide. But El Nino will have an impact
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  on hurricane season with the numbers in the in the history.
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  I went back and I looked El Nino is definitely an important
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  factor. Now is it this summer that it's
• 12:53
  a factor or is it next summer that's a factor.
• 12:55
  But right now with the coming on strong probably this summer and
• 12:59
  that would that usually reduces the number and that's why we're
• 13:02
  expecting or predicting a lower number, but maybe was still one
• 13:06
  or two or three impacts. So talking about summer and what
• 13:09
  we're going to be seeing over the next few months, we've
• 13:12
  talked about a cooling off and then a heat wave, some other
• 13:16
  predictions we've kind of talked about in the past.
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  What else are we kind of seeing as far as just summer
• 13:20
  predictions go? And then the elephant in the
• 13:23
  room to drought predictions and what we're seeing, just an
• 13:27
  update on what you've seen as far as the drought map goes.
• 13:30
  You just said the keyword drought, OK, because right now,
• 13:34
  at this moment, at this second, there is no drought over the
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  following states, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio,
• 13:45
  Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, most of Pennsylvania, eastern
• 13:49
  Kansas, from around the foothills and around Concordia
• 13:55
  eastward, almost all of Missouri.
• 13:59
  That's the area that has no drought.
• 14:01
  Because of what has been happening this winter in early
• 14:04
  spring, there is drought amazingly right nearby.
• 14:07
  Most of Nebraska, southern half of South Dakota, most of
• 14:11
  Wyoming, all of Colorado, almost all of New Mexico, much of
• 14:15
  Oklahoma in the Texas Panhandle and from Arkansas to Southeast
• 14:20
  Texas all the way to the southeast.
• 14:23
  Extreme drought in Georgia, North Florida and in Colorado
• 14:28
  around the mountain area is concern for fire season.
• 14:31
  Now great news. Colorado has had 24 inches, 2
• 14:36
  feet of snow around Estes Park. So that is really good news.
• 14:39
  We're still below average on moisture significantly.
• 14:43
  And so when this snow melts, it'll be good for the
• 14:46
  reservoirs. But the fire season is still
• 14:48
  expected to be bad. So LRC created the ending of the
• 14:53
  drought from eastern Kansas, Missouri across the Corn Belt.
• 14:56
  When Iowa is in no drought, corn prices will likely be low and
• 15:01
  less drought creeps in. And other factors around the
• 15:03
  world, of course. So something abreast of is the
• 15:07
  Nebraska and western Kansas drought and see if that expands.
• 15:11
  Right now I don't expect it to, but Nebraska, northwest Kansas
• 15:15
  will likely continue to have drug concerns through the
• 15:18
  summer. Absolutely.
• 15:19
  Something that we want to be keeping our eyes on as we
• 15:23
  continue to go into some really vital rainy season months and
• 15:27
  some really vital months for people in cattle country making
• 15:30
  some really impactful decisions for their operations.
• 15:33
  Gary, is there anything else that we haven't hit on today
• 15:36
  that you think that we need to bring up as far as just
• 15:39
  predicting the rest of spring, summer, fall next year, whatever
• 15:42
  it kind of looks like goes? Well, you'll just hear hype from
• 15:45
  El Nino like you talked about, but what does that even mean?
• 15:48
  Oh my God, there's going to be an El Nino.
• 15:49
  So what are we going to run around El Nino?
• 15:51
  What does it really mean for where you live?
• 15:53
  We'll try to narrow in on some of those impacts as we go
• 15:57
  towards the fall and winter, but it's really going to depend on
• 16:00
  the LRC and how it sets up. But we'll go into, here's what
• 16:03
  El Nino likely means before we know the LRC.
• 16:07
  Then when the LRC sets up, we'll be able to rule things in and
• 16:10
  rule things out. So in California, for example,
• 16:14
  are they going to have a really wet season because of El Nino?
• 16:18
  Well, if you look at the last 10 strong El Ninos, five of them
• 16:21
  produced a really wet winter there and five to not 5050,
• 16:25
  right? So it depends on how the LRC
• 16:28
  sets up. So that's one thing we'll be
• 16:30
  doing in the next few weeks and months right here and in of
• 16:33
  course, our weather2020.subset.com, our
• 16:36
  Weather 2020 Intelligence Report.
• 16:38
  But we will be tracking all of the above right now.
• 16:42
  Summer's approaching severe weather season is going to take
• 16:45
  a little bit of a break for the next 10 days.
• 16:47
  But watch out. The second-half of May is the
• 16:50
  return of that holiday week storm system that blasted into
• 16:55
  California when that's energy swings across the plains of
• 16:58
  produce severe weather later this month.
• 17:00
  So we'll be watching for that, for hail, as the corn comes, the
• 17:03
  soybeans come up. We always have to look for those
• 17:05
  hell threats. So there's going to be a few
• 17:07
  threats late May into June with that.
• 17:10
  That's what we know right now. Wonderful.
• 17:12
  Awesome. Well, as always, Gary, thank you
• 17:14
  so much for coming on today and sharing a little piece of the
• 17:18
  puzzle and what the LRC is and kind of giving us the inside
• 17:22
  track on everything that's going on as far as the weather goes
• 17:25
  for the next few months. And then also as we look out
• 17:28
  into summer and fall as well. We really appreciate it to all
• 17:31
  of you audience members out there.
• 17:32
  Gary, Mary mentioned it earlier in the podcast, but if you're
• 17:35
  interested in anything that we talked about today, whether that
• 17:38
  be the actual LRC Full Vision dashboard or whether it just be
• 17:43
  their awesome app called the Global Predictor, make sure you
• 17:45
  check out the show notes down below.
• 17:47
  And I've got links to all of those down below where you can
• 17:50
  go and check out to all of the information on the Weather 2020
• 17:53
  website. Get our exclusive Cattle USA
• 17:55
  discount link or anything else down below.
• 17:58
  So make sure you check out the show notes to see all that
• 18:01
  information. Gary, as always, thanks for
• 18:02
  coming on and to all of you audience members, we will see
• 18:04
  you all next time on another episode of the Cattle USA Daily
• 18:07
  Podcast. Have a good one y'all.