Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / Markets Are Demanding Proof That AI CapEx Pays Off
Transcript
- 0:02SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Friday Live.
- 0:04SPEAKER_01: Every Friday, some of the partners of HPK Providence get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and talk about some financial planning topics.
- 0:11SPEAKER_01: David, how are you doing today?
- 0:13SPEAKER_02: We are doing well.
- 0:15SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
- 0:16SPEAKER_02: Um and Michael, are you doing well out there in the west?
- 0:21SPEAKER_01: We actually got some rain today and yesterday, which is a rare occurrence in the desert here.
- 0:27SPEAKER_01: Um definitely need it.
- 0:29SPEAKER_01: We've had a lot of fires this season.
- 0:32SPEAKER_02: Yes, yes.
- 0:34SPEAKER_01: But I am getting a little tired of waking up in the dark and in the cold because I am on East Coast time still, and the sun doesn't come up until about probably close to seven here now.
- 0:46SPEAKER_01: So I've already been working for quite a few hours at that point by the time the sun comes up, and it's chilly, so I am moving back to Florida next week.
- 0:56SPEAKER_02: Amen.
- 0:57SPEAKER_02: Amen.
- 0:58SPEAKER_02: Um enjoy the trip.
- 1:01SPEAKER_01: Yeah, enjoy the 42 hours of driving.
- 1:06SPEAKER_02: Uh but you have nice companions with you, Stormy and Midas.
- 1:11SPEAKER_01: That's true.
- 1:13SPEAKER_01: So I don't know if Stormy's ever been out of state.
- 1:15SPEAKER_01: She's a new addition to our family.
- 1:18SPEAKER_01: Um and Midas did this road trip once with me, and we stayed at one hotel and the rest Airbnbs.
- 1:24SPEAKER_01: Had a bad recent experience with Airbnbs, so I'm doing all hotels this time.
- 1:29SPEAKER_01: And then I'm picking up a buddy in um Dallas, and he's gonna help me finish out the drive, which is really nice.
- 1:35SPEAKER_02: Oh, good.
- 1:37SPEAKER_01: So I will not be on next Friday live.
- 1:39SPEAKER_01: I will be starting my drive, but I'm sure David and andor Brian will be able to pick up the slack and talk about this market downturn.
- 1:48SPEAKER_02: Okay, yes, and all sorts of different financial planning IDs, and there's some uh potential that uh we could get we could get Brian onto the Social Security bandwagon.
- 2:01SPEAKER_02: Uh he'll he'll be happy to go through those weeds.
- 2:04SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he'll definitely fill up some time on that one.
- 2:09SPEAKER_01: All right, well, turning to the markets because we have had some volatility this week.
- 2:14SPEAKER_01: Um now markets are close to the highs of the day, um, trying to shake off yesterday's losses.
- 2:21SPEAKER_01: Yesterday the SP was down 1.2%, the NASDAQ 100 was down three percent.
- 2:28SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, there's just so many areas that had such brutal sell-offs um above five percent.
- 2:36SPEAKER_01: And interestingly, though, the breadth was very good.
- 2:40SPEAKER_01: Um, half the sectors uh with the defensives, which makes sense, flight to safety uh were up, but also financials, which was a little um uncharacteristic of that that trade, but the rest of it was was down deep.
- 2:55SPEAKER_01: And uh, you know, actually the equal weight was up 0.7 percent on the day.
- 3:00SPEAKER_01: So it was a very interesting dynamic.
- 3:03SPEAKER_01: Um, I think the market got a little freaked out by uh the first Mag 7 earnings Meta um came out with good revenue numbers.
- 3:13SPEAKER_01: Uh earnings were a little mixed because they had that big litigation charge.
- 3:18SPEAKER_01: Um, but I think the real alarm was again, they're raising CapEx uh spending on AI, and then they're not announcing their 2027 spending numbers until next quarter.
- 3:30SPEAKER_01: So that's a kind of a question mark for market participants, and then they're also doing a uh a non-voting share issuance to fund it.
- 3:41SPEAKER_01: And as you mentioned earlier, uh to me, not on the show, they had negative three cash flow for the first time in I don't know how long, at least over a decade.
- 3:54SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 3:54SPEAKER_02: Well, there's they're spending so much money on AI, and this is the first quarter that they spent more than what they took in, made money.
- 4:05SPEAKER_02: Uh now, thankfully, that was less than what was the analysts were predicting.
- 4:10SPEAKER_02: So that negative number could have been much bigger, uh uh, but it was less than what analysts were predicting.
- 4:19SPEAKER_02: Didn't stock.
- 4:20SPEAKER_01: So that's definitely the the debt is definitely being a concern.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: Um, you look at companies like Oracle who are massively financing their AI build out debt, and I think the rate's around 8%.
- 4:33SPEAKER_01: So that's really been the talk lately.
- 4:36SPEAKER_01: Um uh who's it, Core Weave?
- 4:39SPEAKER_01: That's been like a headline every day of what their credit default swaps are doing.
- 4:44SPEAKER_01: Um, so there's definitely some concern on the lending front.
- 4:47SPEAKER_01: Um, and then I think uh OpenAI cut their um what their funding amount will be for their IPO.
- 4:59SPEAKER_01: So another concern there.
- 5:01SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, we're we're really getting as of last Friday, I think nine percent of the SP 500 reported.
- 5:09SPEAKER_01: You know, the numbers were pretty good overall.
- 5:11SPEAKER_01: I think uh I think the I mean it was a slight miss on uh earnings growth, but it was like 29%.
- 5:19SPEAKER_01: I haven't gotten the figures that are reflective of this week, but I think the big story is the stock reactions haven't been that good.
- 5:27SPEAKER_01: So I think I think we're really getting into that point where it's a show me story, and again, you're spending a lot on AI, but when are the profits coming?
- 5:38unknown: Okay.
- 5:40SPEAKER_01: So the market is dip below last Friday's lows.
- 5:46SPEAKER_01: Um we'll see if we can get above that level today.
- 5:49SPEAKER_01: We're just we're definitely decisively below the 50-day moving average on the SP 500, um, just above the 100-day moving average.
- 6:00SPEAKER_01: The NASDAQ looks a little worse.
- 6:02SPEAKER_01: This is a NASDAQ 100, um, below the 100-day, 50 day, and both of these uh moving averages are now pointing negative, which is not a positive sign.
- 6:13SPEAKER_01: But good news on yesterday's trade for the first time in a while, fixed income has been an offset to a decline in equity prices.
- 6:23SPEAKER_01: So I think that's being a little reflective of the the fear of growth in the markets.
- 6:29SPEAKER_01: Um, but we got a 17 basis point drop in the 10-year bond yields go down, bond prices go up, is what that means.
- 6:37SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that's a that's the way it's drafted on the board.
- 6:42SPEAKER_02: It just doesn't just hasn't happened for a long time.
- 6:46SPEAKER_01: And just look at this, you know, emerging market, international, they've just given up all their leadership on the year.
- 6:55SPEAKER_01: I think EM was at up over 20% at one point, and now we're just about 11%.
- 7:03SPEAKER_01: Um, I've been flagging the um high yield spreads are now at the highest level since uh March of this year.
- 7:14SPEAKER_01: Um, but this move has been incredible.
- 7:16SPEAKER_01: So this the high yield spread is a spread on high yield bonds above um their treasury rates, and it just kind of signifies what what the market is pricing in in terms of default rate.
- 7:29SPEAKER_01: Um the lowest rate at bonds, triple C and below, are above 12%, I believe.
- 7:36SPEAKER_01: So some concern there.
- 7:37SPEAKER_01: And then again, we're marching back higher on geopolitical news with crude oil back above 100 at the 102 level.
- 7:46SPEAKER_01: So all things to keep an eye on.
- 7:49SPEAKER_01: Um I I'm still biased toward the downside.
- 7:55SPEAKER_01: We could see support here at the 100-day moving average, though, uh, which coincides with the with the lows seen in September.
- 8:03SPEAKER_01: And then, but I mean, you look at the NASDAQ, we've really been range bound for about three months now.
- 8:10SPEAKER_01: So um hopefully we break out in one direction or the other.
- 8:14SPEAKER_01: Um, hopefully to the upside.
- 8:16SPEAKER_01: But like I said, I'm a little biased toward the downside.
- 8:19SPEAKER_01: And until things material change, materially change, uh, I'll I'll likely be a buyer of that dip.
- 8:26SPEAKER_01: Um from an economic standpoint.
- 8:29SPEAKER_01: Do you have anything to add to that, David?
- 8:32SPEAKER_02: Um, no, I I think uh you know, life happens.
- 8:37SPEAKER_02: Uh I had that nice quote.
- 8:39SPEAKER_02: Your dad is a huge Beatle fan, so I I memorize him.
- 8:45SPEAKER_02: I'm a fan, I'm not as big as your dad's in regard to the Beatles.
- 8:49SPEAKER_01: John Lennon You're more of an 80s fan.
- 8:51SPEAKER_02: What's that?
- 8:52SPEAKER_01: You're more of an 80s fan, Billy Joel, Alan John.
- 8:55SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah, yeah.
- 8:57SPEAKER_02: But John Lennon had a quote, uh, and I I thought that was apropos.
- 9:01SPEAKER_02: It said, Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans.
- 9:07SPEAKER_02: So while you're making plans, uh, and life happens with this economy, you know.
- 9:13SPEAKER_02: Well, uh, it goes all back to that financial planning mantra, you know.
- 9:20SPEAKER_02: Keep with you keep in with what you uh earn, live within your means, invest the difference, and have money on the sides in case you um in case you have something that crops up that you need to take advantage of.
- 9:34SPEAKER_01: So um, we like I was saying, we didn't have a lot of economic data this week, mostly housing numbers.
- 9:43SPEAKER_01: Um building permits were decent, but housing starts were bad, negative 5% on the month, and pending home sales was down 7%, over 7% on the month, which is an awful reading, one of the worst on record.
- 9:57SPEAKER_01: Um, leading indicators were flat.
- 10:00SPEAKER_01: Um, jobless claims are pretty good and low, 194,000.
- 10:05SPEAKER_01: Um, so we're not really seeing um people being laid off at this point.
- 10:10SPEAKER_01: And then we got the global PMA PMI composite today, which came in uh pretty strong on the headline number, but prices paid were up quite a bit.
- 10:20SPEAKER_01: Um it's really just more of an earnings period right now.
- 10:26SPEAKER_01: Um, next week we will get uh some more housing data, and then uh we'll have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
- 10:34SPEAKER_01: Um it's looking like there's got not going to be any movement, but we'll have to pay attention to.
- 10:41SPEAKER_01: Well, he doesn't really give forward guidance, so he says.
- 10:45SPEAKER_01: I think he tries not to leave the stock and bond market, but I think the stock and bond market lead him.
- 10:55SPEAKER_02: How do you think they're reading them pretty they're doing a good job of reading him?
- 11:00SPEAKER_01: I think they're just moving where they see the data going, and then they jump on board.
- 11:07SPEAKER_01: And so now I'm originally I was thinking we would get a another rate hike next next week, but um, I don't think they'll go against market odds.
- 11:18SPEAKER_01: And I think uh with the capex uncertainty and all that, it it's probably better to just sit this meeting out and wait until the December meeting after midterms.
- 11:29SPEAKER_01: But we will see, and I will be paying close attention to the the presser and see if he has any anything to add on that.
- 11:36SPEAKER_01: Um, we will also get GDP numbers uh preliminary read on the quarterly basis, 3%, but on an annualized basis, 1.7 percent.
- 11:48SPEAKER_01: Um, above twos generally considered uh a healthy economy.
- 11:53SPEAKER_01: So we're trending a little lower there, and then we'll get also the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PC deflator core is expected to tick up a little bit to 0.3 percent, which is 3.1% on an annualized basis, and then on a headline basis, which includes the volatile food and energy, is expected to be up uh 0.5% and 3.6% on an annualized basis.
- 12:19SPEAKER_01: And then we will also get the uh personal income and personal consumer expenditure numbers, which again, the trend has been personal income is being outpaced by spending.
- 12:30SPEAKER_01: So people are accessing those credit cards.
- 12:33SPEAKER_01: And like I mentioned last week, uh wage growth has not kept up with inflation over the past six months.
- 12:40SPEAKER_01: So uh definitely gonna have the impact of having some pressure on the consumer.
- 12:47SPEAKER_01: But I think we remain in that case-shaped economy where if you hold assets in the stock market, you have your mortgage rate locked in at 3%, you're doing pretty well.
- 12:58SPEAKER_01: But if you're not, then your wages are being um outpaced by inflation, and you are probably feeling pressure of the economy right now.
- 13:12SPEAKER_02: The thing about the market is Mike, is that if if you have a if if you look at the market pessimistically, you will certainly see evidence uh to support that view.
- 13:26SPEAKER_02: Likewise, if you tend to look at the at the coming economy as positive and optimistic, then there's certainly evidence that you can find to do that.
- 13:38SPEAKER_02: What's that say?
- 13:40SPEAKER_02: The market is a mixed bag.
- 13:43SPEAKER_01: And it's supposed to be forward-looking out six to twelve months.
- 13:48SPEAKER_01: So, what the picture looks like in 12 months from now, I would imagine CapEx spending will slow.
- 13:55SPEAKER_01: Um, and we'll have to see what the economic numbers do, whether they coincide with that and slow down or not.
- 14:01SPEAKER_01: But as always, we'll remain nimble in our positioning and try to take advantage of different opportunities.
- 14:08SPEAKER_02: Yes.
- 14:09SPEAKER_01: So then every week we talk about our blog posts.
- 14:11SPEAKER_01: We had a we we do the I published the LPL market uh weekly data here, uh, just their thoughts on that.
- 14:20SPEAKER_01: So it's good to read, take a look at it.
- 14:22SPEAKER_01: Um, but then we had the it's getting to the end of the year, so I wanted to make sure everyone's aware that if you are, I mean, depending on the year you're born, but at this point, if you're above 73, um, you're required to take money out of your IRA.
- 14:37SPEAKER_01: So this is just a handy calculator to give you a rough estimate.
- 14:41SPEAKER_01: But go to each IRA that you own and track down what amount you need to take and take a look at how much you've taken year to date.
- 14:51SPEAKER_01: Um you probably still have time to do uh QCD at this point, um, which is a charitable distribution where you don't get taxed on it.
- 15:02SPEAKER_01: But make sure you're on top of that because the government takes big penalties if you don't.
- 15:08SPEAKER_02: Very significant.
- 15:09SPEAKER_02: Uh so pay attention to your required minimum distributions.
- 15:13SPEAKER_02: Uh, it doesn't have to come from every retirement account, but you have to accumulate what that total amount is.
- 15:20SPEAKER_02: The IRS doesn't care where they get where you get the money from to distribute to satisfy that RMD.
- 15:27SPEAKER_02: You can take it from one place, you could take it from three different IRAs.
- 15:32SPEAKER_02: Uh but just make sure you at least get that required minimum distribution taken out before December 31st.
- 15:39SPEAKER_02: And do not wait until December 15th.
- 15:43SPEAKER_02: Get it?
- 15:44SPEAKER_01: Yeah, a lot of custodians may not even do it past December 15th.
- 15:49SPEAKER_01: So the sooner you do it, the better.
- 15:53SPEAKER_01: Um, obviously, right now the market's a little bit down, but I mean, NASTEX down 7% off the high.
- 16:02SPEAKER_01: Um, but the SB is only really down two-ish.
- 16:05SPEAKER_01: So not that bad in the scheme of the long term.
- 16:09SPEAKER_01: Um, but those RD values are based on your age and the account value at December 31st of the previous year.
- 16:20SPEAKER_01: So you can click on this and it'll give you a rough estimate, but like we said, go to your individual IRAs where they're held at and get those actual numbers.
- 16:30SPEAKER_02: Uh this week we have uh Social Security coming out saying that you can uh that there's gonna be a cost of living increase around the average of right there on the screen, about$75 per person.
- 16:43SPEAKER_02: Um, Brian could speak on a whole lot more of that possibly next week.
- 16:48SPEAKER_02: Uh, but uh people are saying this is gonna be like a 3.6% increase uh for every retiree, um, or that people that are taking Social Security presently.
- 17:00SPEAKER_02: Um some are saying thank you very much, but most are saying it's not quite enough to keep up with how much uh how much the cost of drugs are.
- 17:11SPEAKER_01: So yeah, and then in this article, I mean they have different interviews with people on this, and the one couple was talking about you know, it's not keeping up with inflation, and it's certainly not keeping up with the increase that we just saw in our prescription drugs each month.
- 17:30SPEAKER_02: But at least it's something better than nothing.
- 17:34SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 17:35SPEAKER_02: Um$75, that's a hundred.
- 17:38SPEAKER_02: That's if it's a if it's a couple, uh that could be about a hundred and fifty dollars per couple.
- 17:46SPEAKER_01: So um hopefully then.
- 17:49SPEAKER_01: They also point out the alarm bells in this where social security fully funded is gonna run out by 2034.
- 17:56SPEAKER_02: So we'll we'll let Brian tackle that one.
- 18:01SPEAKER_02: That's one of his favorite topics.
- 18:03SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's he doesn't believe that's gonna happen.
- 18:06SPEAKER_01: So I'll defer to him on that one.
- 18:09SPEAKER_02: Uh yes.
- 18:10SPEAKER_02: And I had a really interesting uh meeting this week.
- 18:13SPEAKER_02: I went with a client uh to um the Gulf Coast Community Foundation, and that was Joe Carter.
- 18:20SPEAKER_02: We are indebted to Joe Carter's expertise on how to um we as a people here in the United States are very generous-minded.
- 18:31SPEAKER_02: Um there's a lot of other countries around the world that their governments pay for charitable, charitable institutions.
- 18:41SPEAKER_02: The U.S.
- 18:42SPEAKER_02: is not one of them.
- 18:43SPEAKER_02: Um more than 74% of gifts to charities are from individuals uh here in the US, uh, only 8% from corporations.
- 18:57SPEAKER_02: Now, again, we're talking billions and billions of dollars, okay, but still, by and large, individuals give a lot of money.
- 19:06SPEAKER_02: Yeah, if you end up with a windfall, uh you sell the piece of property, or you end up having a big tax hit.
- 19:16SPEAKER_01: And in this in this scenario, we're talking about it it was a sale of a business, a sale of a business property, okay.
- 19:24SPEAKER_02: And it turns out we're he's gonna have a pretty significant uh capital gain tax, probably about uh maybe in excess of two million dollars.
- 19:34SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 19:34SPEAKER_02: Um now 20% on two million is still a significant high amount.
- 19:41SPEAKER_02: That would be his tax.
- 19:42SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 19:43SPEAKER_02: Now you can do a couple of uh I've heard about charitable remainder trust for a while, okay.
- 19:50SPEAKER_02: And this is uh you get a taxable deduction in the year that you do that, okay, and there's limits on how much you can give.
- 20:00SPEAKER_02: So be mindful of that.
- 20:02SPEAKER_02: And again, uh Joe Carter is a wonderful resource.
- 20:05SPEAKER_02: Um you can find him at the Gulf Coast Community Foundation, uh, but he's um uh very knowledgeable on this charitable remainder trust, um, the the bare bones of it, and and we'll have a separate section, we'll have a separate meeting just on just on those.
- 20:25SPEAKER_02: Okay, but the charitable remainder trust, you uh you gift money and uh you name it to charities, you get a tax deduction the year that you gift this money, say it's 200,000, and you have you and your spouse receive income during your lifetime, and at your passing, the those proceeds go to the charity that you've outlined.
- 20:46SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 20:47SPEAKER_02: Uh or you can have your children as the beneficiary.
- 20:51SPEAKER_02: And so they would receive income from this charitable remainder trust during their lifetimes, and then after their their passing, it would go to the charities that you've designated.
- 21:04SPEAKER_02: Um very useful.
- 21:05SPEAKER_02: The converse of that, and this is something that's not as well known, is the guarantor lead trust.
- 21:13SPEAKER_02: And I find that rather fascinating that you could do at the front end uh give uh so you make a charitable donation and you have a set amount of money set aside, and you name a charity or charities that would receive um, say it's say it's a hundred thousand dollars, and then five thousand dollars a year goes to the charities that you've designated.
- 21:41SPEAKER_02: And after 10 years, whatever is left of that, hopefully it's in a growth thing that that can make money for you and so forth, but after 10 years, that comes back to you or to your beneficiaries.
- 21:54SPEAKER_02: Um so you front load the charities getting the income.
- 22:00SPEAKER_02: Uh, on the guarantor lead trust, or the family gets the income at the beginning, and then the charities get it at the end on the charitable remainder trust.
- 22:10SPEAKER_02: Both of those, and maybe a combination of the two, can do a very decent job of uh you've often heard me say many times, right, Mike?
- 22:22SPEAKER_02: Like we can't keep Uncle Sam out of your pockets, but we can limit what he takes out.
- 22:26SPEAKER_02: These are some two very powerful tools that I would encourage you to uh investigate.
- 22:30SPEAKER_02: Give us a call if you have uh further questions.
- 22:34SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that com that combination sounds very interesting and beneficial for someone in those circumstances.
- 22:41SPEAKER_02: I I think it's uh I think it's very uh worthwhile to check.
- 22:46SPEAKER_02: Um there's a reason why there's a lemur foundation in in um Sarasota County.
- 22:54SPEAKER_02: That there is a there's only live lemurs two places on this earth, Madagascar and Miaka City.
- 23:02SPEAKER_02: So if someone had a passion, instead of setting, you know, when they when they passed away, uh uh they um they left their monies to set up a lemur foundation, so there'd be wild lemurs in Sarasota.
- 23:16SPEAKER_01: So last last week you were talking about gifting to a dog in Sarasota, and this week it's lemurs.
- 23:23SPEAKER_01: You have any uh you have any hints for next week's animals?
- 23:27SPEAKER_02: Uh for those of you like me that are stuck in the sandwich generation, we're taking care of parents and and our children and our grandchildren.
- 23:36SPEAKER_02: Okay, understand that there is uh there is a time coming.
- 23:40SPEAKER_02: Enjoy the relationships while they're still there.
- 23:43SPEAKER_02: Uh those memories cannot be um cannot make enough memories.
- 23:48SPEAKER_02: Uh it's just enjoy life here.
- 23:53SPEAKER_02: As my father-in-law would say, the alternative is not as pleasant.
- 23:57SPEAKER_02: So enjoy life uh because it means it's here.
- 24:01SPEAKER_02: Um, because if you don't enjoy it, well, the alternative is so life.
- 24:06SPEAKER_01: So all right.
- 24:08SPEAKER_01: Well, everyone have a safe and happy weekend, and uh, we will be back next Friday by 12 30 Eastern time to talk about what's going on in the markets, economy, and financial planning.
- 24:19SPEAKER_01: Everyone take care.
- 24:20SPEAKER_00: Have a great weekend.
- 24:21SPEAKER_00: It's offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA, and SIPC.org.
- 24:26SPEAKER_00: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
- 24:32SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
- 24:38SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
- 24:47SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
- 24:58SPEAKER_00: This communication may include links to references to third-party websites.
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