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The Crash Already Happened: Why 2026 is the Aftermath for DFW Real Estate · This Week in DFW Real Estate

0:00
Speaker 1: The housing crash already happened three years ago. And now
0:02
Speaker 1: what we're starting, we're experiencing the aftermath. We're kind of
0:07
Speaker 1: in that kind of cycle at the moment, which is
0:09
Speaker 1: why you're starting to see like foreclosures. Dallas-Fort Worth foreclosures
0:13
Speaker 1: are up 44%. I'll tell you that at this podcast,
0:16
Speaker 1: we've never... said, you know, marry the house, date the race. No,
0:19
Speaker 1: I just think it's one. I just hate dumb realtor cliches.
0:21
Speaker 1: I think it makes us all look like morons. My
0:23
Speaker 1: belief is number one. I will, I will take this
0:27
Speaker 1: to my grave is that the individual real estate is
0:29
Speaker 1: the middle class and they're dying and they will be gone.
0:33
Speaker 1: There will be a few left in the next five years,
0:35
Speaker 1: but it's going to be the large real estate teams.
0:38
Speaker 1: All right, today we have another great show, but we
0:40
Speaker 1: have a special guest in here. You're probably going to
1:09
Speaker 1: recognize him if you watched our other show, the one
1:13
Speaker 1: that now we can actually talk about it again because
1:16
Speaker 1: Matt's here. So we've got Matt Kelderman. He's filling in
1:19
Speaker 1: for Brian Force today. You're not listening or watching to
1:23
Speaker 1: the only real estate podcast worth listening to. You're watching
1:26
Speaker 1: This Week in DFW Real Estate. Just a little confusing.
1:29
Speaker 1: People are going to look at me, what is happening
1:31
Speaker 1: over here, dude? I did pull up. I will tell you,
1:35
Speaker 1: and I talked about this with Brian. I couldn't sleep
1:37
Speaker 1: one night a couple weeks ago, and I went down
1:40
Speaker 1: the YouTube path and looked at all of our tour podcasts. Yeah.
1:47
Speaker 1: I went from episode one. I went to where we
1:50
Speaker 1: were first doing it in JD's studio. God, that was awful. Yeah.
1:55
Speaker 1: And then when we went over to the other, the
1:57
Speaker 1: real studio, we made it legit. Yeah. And then I
1:59
Speaker 1: remember when we went into the old DPR, my old
2:02
Speaker 1: office that became y'all's office, and how the lighting was
2:07
Speaker 1: so bad. But we just kept doing it. And the
2:14
Speaker 1: consistency compounds. And I was at eXp convention last week,
2:17
Speaker 1: and I got– I will have to say, hopefully they
2:20
Speaker 1: don't listen to this. I got a little jealous because
2:23
Speaker 1: our show that we were doing, I think we missed–
2:28
Speaker 1: We didn't understand how big that could have became. Yeah.
2:32
Speaker 1: Because there was the two girls that have a podcast
2:35
Speaker 1: called Girls With Grit. and they've turned it into a
2:37
Speaker 1: whole business. And that could have been Tor.
2:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've definitely spent some time looking back, one, at
2:45
Speaker 2: just how far it came. I mean, Ad and Jesse
2:47
Speaker 2: made a big difference when it came to the actual
2:50
Speaker 2: production quality of stuff. Getting away from the GoPro cameras,
2:53
Speaker 2: as nice as that was, the evolution of this thing,
2:55
Speaker 2: even walking back in here today, I was like, it's familiar,
2:57
Speaker 2: but it also is different, right? Like different mics that
2:59
Speaker 2: probably sound better or whatever. You know, we tried, we
3:02
Speaker 2: tried doing it a couple of different ways. You know,
3:04
Speaker 2: we tried starting the coaching thing. That really wasn't it.
3:06
Speaker 2: I don't think, I don't know if we really realized
3:08
Speaker 2: how difficult that would be, but you know, I think
3:10
Speaker 2: we gave it a good college try on some stuff.
3:12
Speaker 1: What did we end up doing?
3:13
Speaker 2: Like 240, 250 episodes like that?
3:16
Speaker 1: How many was it? Cause we hit some, we, you know,
3:18
Speaker 1: some of them we didn't actually put out there. It
3:21
Speaker 1: was like, it was like almost 250. I think it
3:24
Speaker 1: was close to 250. Probably 250 with the hidden episodes. Probably.
3:27
Speaker 1: I think it was two thirties, two forties when we
3:30
Speaker 1: go look at just what we publicly put out there.
3:34
Speaker 1: And looking at it, I'm going to toot our own
3:39
Speaker 1: horns a little bit. I don't think we ever... Yeah,
3:42
Speaker 1: 240 episodes. And the last one was April 10th, 2025.
3:46
Speaker 1: So just a little over a year ago. We were
3:49
Speaker 1: pretty much dead on with a lot of what we
3:52
Speaker 1: were talking about. Like, a lot of the predictions, a
3:55
Speaker 1: lot of the... This market right now. Correct. This market
3:58
Speaker 1: right now.
3:58
Speaker 2: We spent a lot of time in 2023, probably even 2022,
4:02
Speaker 2: talking about exactly where we're sitting right now.
4:04
Speaker 1: Yeah. And I want to bring up why we were right.
4:09
Speaker 1: But before doing that, go make sure to... You got
4:15
Speaker 1: to love on our sponsors, man. This is the only
4:17
Speaker 1: reason we can do this. That's why they pay us
4:19
Speaker 1: And Kellerman's getting a substitute teacher pay today. But that's
4:24
Speaker 1: the reason why we can keep this show going. Go
4:26
Speaker 1: over there and support Homeward Property Management. I'm talking to
4:29
Speaker 1: a lot of agents right now. I'm going to tell you,
4:31
Speaker 1: and Matt's doing leases and other agents are doing leases.
4:36
Speaker 1: And I get it. People are wanting to lease out
4:38
Speaker 1: their house. But something that I was kind of picking
4:40
Speaker 1: up a trend on. as an agent that's doing leases
4:44
Speaker 1: and representing clients, is that they're probably actually not setting
4:49
Speaker 1: their clients, the soon-to-be landlords up for success. Meaning, did
4:54
Speaker 1: they get their house tenant-proof ready with the deadbolts and
4:58
Speaker 1: the peepholes and the smoke alarms, et cetera? Well, if
5:02
Speaker 1: you're not doing that and you don't know that, you're like,
5:04
Speaker 1: what the heck are you talking about, Nick? But you
5:07
Speaker 1: probably need to refer that over to Dana Wynn at
5:08
Speaker 1: Homeward Property Management. Just go to HomewardDFW.com, get that referral.
5:13
Speaker 1: And at Homeward, they don't want your clients. They're just
5:15
Speaker 1: renting your clients. So when that client's ready to sell,
5:17
Speaker 1: they're going to send it right on back to you.
5:19
Speaker 1: They're going to tap you on the shoulder and say, hey,
5:20
Speaker 1: Jane and John Doe is ready to sell their house.
5:22
Speaker 1: Go run numbers on it. So go to HomewardDFW.com and
5:25
Speaker 1: give Dana Wynn a shout. As well as ProCare Home Solutions,
5:30
Speaker 1: the remodeling company. So if you need to get your
5:32
Speaker 1: house ready for sale... If you need to, you've got
5:35
Speaker 1: people that are moving in and wanting to do some
5:37
Speaker 1: remodels on it, just some touch-ups, some make-readies, et cetera.
5:40
Speaker 1: Just get with Chris over at ProCareDFW.com. And then, of course,
5:45
Speaker 1: get a home warranty, right? Shit's getting more expensive. So
5:48
Speaker 1: just get a home warranty. Get with Theron Smith over
5:50
Speaker 1: at Armadillo Home Warranty. It's Armadillo. 1. And today, tell them
5:54
Speaker 1: that Nick and Matt sent you over there. He'll be
5:57
Speaker 1: happy and do, he'll probably play the guitar for you
5:59
Speaker 1: or something like that. And then last but not least,
6:01
Speaker 1: get with Jesse here at tour studios, because look at
6:04
Speaker 1: EXP convention, Matt, last week. I know, unfortunately you weren't
6:08
Speaker 1: able to make it, but Gary Vaynerchuk was the keynote speaker.
6:12
Speaker 1: It looked awesome. Right. And you actually can listen to
6:15
Speaker 1: his keynote because it's now on his podcast channel. It's
6:18
Speaker 1: the exact one, right? Ripped it off. But Gary talked
6:22
Speaker 1: about how that day he was doing the keynote, he
6:25
Speaker 1: put out 931 pieces of content.
6:26
Speaker 2: Yeah.
6:28
Speaker 1: Right now he's got 30 people on staff, a $ 6. 4
6:31
Speaker 1: million budget for payroll. But he said that today there's
6:36
Speaker 1: really not a difference between what he does and what
6:38
Speaker 1: you can do with just your phone. Right? So he's like,
6:42
Speaker 1: you know, we're no longer in the age of social media.
6:45
Speaker 1: We're in this stage of interest media. So he's like,
6:48
Speaker 1: your little cat video that you make and people like
6:51
Speaker 1: it could get many more views and more comments and
6:54
Speaker 1: more traction than his stuff that he puts out.
6:57
Speaker 2: Yeah.
6:58
Speaker 1: So get with Jesse at Tor Studios. Just go to
7:00
Speaker 1: T-O-R-E studios.com and start making some podcasts just like this. So, Matt,
7:06
Speaker 1: you mentioned how a lot of the stuff we were right,
7:10
Speaker 1: especially in the market that we're in today. And Leo Pereja,
7:15
Speaker 1: he's the CEO of eXp, and mentioned in his talk
7:18
Speaker 1: at eXp's convention is that the reason why you're seeing
7:22
Speaker 1: this is that the housing crash already happened three years ago.
7:26
Speaker 1: And now what we're starting, we're experiencing the aftermath. We're
7:31
Speaker 1: kind of in that kind of cycle at the moment,
7:34
Speaker 1: which is why you're starting to see foreclosures. Dallas-Fort Worth
7:37
Speaker 1: foreclosures are up 44%. And he said three years ago
7:42
Speaker 1: was the trend where we started to see this crash happening,
7:45
Speaker 1: which is the real estate transactional sides, the closings are down.
7:52
Speaker 1: And I think most people that we talk to, We
7:55
Speaker 1: think housing crash... And we don't think about how many
7:59
Speaker 1: sales are happening. We immediately go to how far our
8:01
Speaker 1: home price is going to drop. Is that what you're experiencing?
8:05
Speaker 1: When you were talking to people, let's go back over
8:07
Speaker 1: the last 36 months. What were people waiting on?
8:12
Speaker 2: I wasn't in this market when you first got into it,
8:14
Speaker 2: but I'm sure there were people even in 2009 who
8:16
Speaker 2: were waiting for prices to get a little bit lower.
8:18
Speaker 2: I'm sure there were people even back then who were
8:19
Speaker 2: saying the same thing. This market seems to have two
8:22
Speaker 2: really unique problems that maybe didn't exist before. One, you
8:25
Speaker 2: had people buying a lot of future equity. at the
8:27
Speaker 2: end of 2022 and 2023. And they're sitting on super
8:31
Speaker 2: flat home prices. So they're stuck in their house mainly
8:34
Speaker 2: because there's no equity for them to sell with. And
8:37
Speaker 2: then you have everybody who bought I don't know, from
8:40
Speaker 2: 2012 until 2022, that is sitting on an interest rate
8:44
Speaker 2: that's 3%, 3.5% or less. And for them to go
8:46
Speaker 2: engage with this market, they're almost getting the exact same
8:49
Speaker 2: amount of house, or excuse me, a lot less house
8:51
Speaker 2: for the exact same amount of money. And so, Brian
8:54
Speaker 2: called it stagflation. And I don't know if that word
8:57
Speaker 2: means anything or not, but it seems to represent what
9:00
Speaker 2: we're seeing. And I think that's what's kind of the immediate...
9:03
Speaker 2: decrease in home sales is you just have a lot
9:05
Speaker 2: of people who are handcuffed to a really amazing interest rate.
9:08
Speaker 2: Other people who are stuck in a super low or
9:09
Speaker 2: negative equity situation because they bought it up front in 2022,
9:13
Speaker 2: by the way, which is this market had already turned,
9:15
Speaker 2: but we had super low inventory. So everybody kept fighting
9:17
Speaker 2: for houses until mid 23. Those are the people who
9:20
Speaker 2: are in the worst shape, in my opinion.
9:21
Speaker 1: Yeah.
9:21
Speaker 2: The people who bought in 20, end of 2022, beginning
9:24
Speaker 2: of 2023, they are sitting on no equity and they
9:27
Speaker 2: do not even have the benefit of a two and
9:28
Speaker 2: a half percent interest rate because they were already in the.
9:29
Speaker 1: Fives at that point. Yeah. Look, this was, this was
9:32
Speaker 1: like a, back then a game of, of, uh, was
9:34
Speaker 1: it musical chairs? Yep. And you know, everyone, look, you all,
9:39
Speaker 1: we all, we all knew that. That the music was
9:43
Speaker 1: going to stop sometime. You just didn't expect it to
9:45
Speaker 1: stop that quickly.
9:46
Speaker 2: Yeah.
9:46
Speaker 1: And that you were going to be the one, right, holding,
9:49
Speaker 1: you know, you were going to be the one that's like, oh, shit,
9:51
Speaker 1: like I'm in trouble. Yeah. And you're right. I mean,
9:55
Speaker 1: I ran a listing appointment yesterday for a homeowner he
9:58
Speaker 1: bought in 2023 out in Mesquite. for 317. And look,
10:02
Speaker 1: with the condition of the property and everything, we'd be
10:06
Speaker 1: lucky to get 265 to 275 right now. And let's
10:11
Speaker 1: throw in the fact that now he has solar panels.
10:13
Speaker 1: And I know Your love for solar panels. I hate
10:16
Speaker 1: them so much. And how much more that's going to
10:19
Speaker 1: cause a problem with his selling. And so when we
10:22
Speaker 1: kind of think about their transactional sides, let's think about
10:26
Speaker 1: this right now, right? The crash that everyone has been
10:30
Speaker 1: waiting for has technically already happened. Because in 1996, this
10:34
Speaker 1: country sold about 4 million homes, right? This year, we're
10:38
Speaker 1: going to sell about 4 million homes. But we also
10:41
Speaker 1: have 73 more million people living here. Yeah. And now
10:45
Speaker 1: you're starting to see the foreclosures popping up. And when
10:51
Speaker 1: we look at the foreclosures that are happening, we're now
10:56
Speaker 1: getting over-politicized over the reason why foreclosures are happening. 100%. Right?
11:03
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw some posts going around
11:05
Speaker 1: that the H-1B1 visas, how people are just abandoning their houses,
11:11
Speaker 1: their cars. They're leaving the cars at the airport. Yeah.
11:14
Speaker 1: And the houses are empty. Yeah. And I'm like, guys, like,
11:18
Speaker 1: is that true? I'm sure it is. I'm sure there's
11:20
Speaker 1: some substance behind that. I'm sure there's some truth. But
11:24
Speaker 1: you can't tell me that that's the reason why. I
11:28
Speaker 1: don't believe that the visa program was 100% propping up.
11:32
Speaker 1: are real estate sales here in Collin County or Dallas County? No.
11:36
Speaker 2: One, I don't think there's even enough of them allowed
11:38
Speaker 2: for that to be mathematically possible. I don't know exactly
11:41
Speaker 2: what the number are, but how many of them are allowed,
11:43
Speaker 2: we'd probably have to check it. But one, the internet
11:46
Speaker 2: and social media specifically is a giant dumpster fire of
11:49
Speaker 2: anecdotal evidence. Somebody sees one or two things happening, they're like,
11:52
Speaker 2: everybody is in this scenario. I've learned this with some
11:55
Speaker 2: of the content I've done recently. I've stumbled into a
11:58
Speaker 2: weird space on the internet talking about money, which I'm
12:00
Speaker 2: the least qualified person to be talking about that stuff.
12:03
Speaker 2: But you see it reflected in people's thoughts about how
12:06
Speaker 2: the real estate market is going or where it's going. One,
12:08
Speaker 2: there's still so many people that are screaming crash at
12:10
Speaker 2: the top of their lungs, and those people will always exist.
12:13
Speaker 2: I don't know if the HB1s have anything to do
12:17
Speaker 2: with it. I'm sure there are some some scenarios where
12:19
Speaker 2: people have left those homes. I read a stat the
12:21
Speaker 2: other day that we have a ton of vacant homes nationwide.
12:25
Speaker 2: And I don't think you can attribute all of that
12:27
Speaker 2: to HB1s. I think there's probably a lot of other
12:29
Speaker 2: market factors that are going into that.
12:31
Speaker 1: Sure. I think that, you know, from that, I believe that,
12:35
Speaker 1: you know, there's people that, look, we're getting calls right now.
12:41
Speaker 1: I know Walker got a call yesterday from an agent
12:44
Speaker 1: who is trying to refer him a client, and that
12:47
Speaker 1: client has already relocated out of state. House is sitting vacant.
12:50
Speaker 1: It's costing them $ 4, 000 a month. It's been on the
12:52
Speaker 1: market 200 days. They're bleeding cash. Right? So you've got
12:56
Speaker 1: a lot of... You've got it... I believe that what
12:59
Speaker 1: you're seeing is that you have people that had to
13:04
Speaker 1: make a move in order for job security or for
13:07
Speaker 1: a betterment of their career. They also... had put their
13:12
Speaker 1: home on the market because the agent or even them
13:16
Speaker 1: themselves as the owner believed that, hey, the market still
13:19
Speaker 1: will sell. Yep. And they set an unrealistic price. And
13:24
Speaker 1: what do we do as agents a bad job of? We, one,
13:28
Speaker 1: set the appropriate pricing conditions from the start. And two,
13:32
Speaker 1: we hate asking for price reductions.
13:34
Speaker 2: Yep.
13:35
Speaker 1: Which I don't get.
13:36
Speaker 2: I've fallen in love with asking for price adjustments. I
13:39
Speaker 2: have no problem asking for them now. And look, I
13:41
Speaker 2: think a lot of reasons the agents are really reluctant
13:43
Speaker 2: to ask for those is because secretly they know they
13:45
Speaker 2: haven't done the proper amount of communication leading up to
13:49
Speaker 2: asking for that price adjustment. So they go into it
13:51
Speaker 2: with the seller really having... One, they've done a poor
13:54
Speaker 2: job at the very beginning of setting proper pricing expectations.
13:56
Speaker 2: Then they don't do any follow-up as far as feedback
13:59
Speaker 2: or comps or anything else is going on the market.
14:01
Speaker 2: So now they're a month in and they're just going
14:02
Speaker 2: and asking the seller to arbitrarily reduce their price while
14:05
Speaker 2: the seller has no data. And those conversations usually go fairly,
14:08
Speaker 2: fairly poorly.
14:10
Speaker 1: Yeah. And so I think that's why agents are reluctant
14:12
Speaker 1: to do it more than anything. No, for sure. And
14:15
Speaker 1: I want to go back to, I want to go
14:16
Speaker 1: back to these stats just because, you know, the, you know,
14:19
Speaker 1: numbers and stats are can be skewed, but they don't lie, right?
14:24
Speaker 1: People lie and will misunderstand stats or misappropriate them. But
14:29
Speaker 1: let's look at this again, go back to 1996, 4
14:32
Speaker 1: million sales approximately, and there were about 269 million Americans
14:36
Speaker 1: at that time. So that's about 1.5 sales for every
14:40
Speaker 1: 100 people. Now we go into 2026, there's about 4
14:44
Speaker 1: million sales, there's 342 million Americans. That's about 1.2 sales
14:51
Speaker 1: per 100 people. So if we turned over homes at
14:54
Speaker 1: the 1996 rate, we'd sell about 5.1 million homes this year.
14:56
Speaker 1: So we're missing about 1.1 million homes. transactions based on
15:06
Speaker 1: those numbers. And that's where the gap is. And we
15:11
Speaker 1: talk about a housing shortage. I think that what we
15:14
Speaker 1: have a problem of is we have a problem of
15:19
Speaker 1: grasping and understanding data. I also think that, and Gary
15:23
Speaker 1: Vaynerchuk talked about this a little bit on his keynote,
15:27
Speaker 1: is we have this kind of dumbification happening from AI.
15:30
Speaker 2: Mm-hmm.
15:31
Speaker 1: We believe everything that AI says. We don't look up stats.
15:34
Speaker 1: We don't know them anymore. We just take it for
15:36
Speaker 1: now blind fact, and we don't question. And so when
15:41
Speaker 1: we look at saying, all right, we have a, let's
15:43
Speaker 1: call it the $ 1. 1 million missing sales that's happening. Well,
15:48
Speaker 1: we've been at 4 million sales for about the last
15:50
Speaker 1: three years. We peaked around 6 million in COVID, yeah? Yes.
15:54
Speaker 1: Like 5.9 or something like that? So when we really
15:57
Speaker 1: look at all this, I know agents that had great
16:01
Speaker 1: years last year. I know I had agents two years ago,
16:04
Speaker 1: amazing years. I know agents right now that are having
16:06
Speaker 1: amazing years. 4 million is still a lot. Yeah. And
16:12
Speaker 1: there are agents leaving the business every single day. So
16:15
Speaker 1: your competition is getting less and less every single day,
16:19
Speaker 1: every single month. You're going to see a large turnover
16:22
Speaker 1: that happens at the end of the year, right? We've
16:25
Speaker 1: got this belief... And we have to stop telling ourselves this.
16:33
Speaker 1: We have to change the story, the narrative that it's
16:35
Speaker 1: a bad time to sell. Yeah.
16:37
Speaker 2: Right.
16:38
Speaker 1: If someone is reaching out to you about selling their house,
16:41
Speaker 1: there is a fundamental reason why they're doing it. Unless
16:45
Speaker 1: they don't turn on any news, unless they don't look
16:47
Speaker 1: at any social media, you can't tell me that they
16:49
Speaker 1: don't know that shit's pretty bad right now.
16:51
Speaker 2: Well, and their life circumstance is going to overcome whatever
16:54
Speaker 2: they would prefer to do, too. Somebody who has to
16:56
Speaker 2: move for work or is getting divorced, the interest rate and, honestly,
17:01
Speaker 2: probably what they owe on the home doesn't affect that
17:03
Speaker 2: at all. You brought up an interesting point about real
17:05
Speaker 2: estate agents and the amount of transactions they're doing and
17:07
Speaker 2: why some are still having good years. I think there's
17:09
Speaker 2: also a correlation with the percentage of agents who are
17:11
Speaker 2: doing deals and I remember on the Only Real Estate podcast,
17:15
Speaker 2: us talking 49% to 50% of agents didn't do a
17:18
Speaker 2: single transaction in a year. That number is 70% now.
17:21
Speaker 2: So while there's less sides, there's also 30% more agents
17:24
Speaker 2: who aren't doing anything, which leaves more sides available for
17:27
Speaker 2: the agents who have found a way to navigate this market.
17:30
Speaker 1: So my belief is that, number one, there's two beliefs
17:38
Speaker 1: that I have. First off is that the story should
17:41
Speaker 1: be And the message should be for homebuyers, this is
17:46
Speaker 1: their window. This is the best buying opportunity they've seen,
17:50
Speaker 1: I believe, since 2008, 2009. From an inventory standpoint, from
17:56
Speaker 1: what's happening economically, what's happening with negative press and media,
18:01
Speaker 1: that they can come in now and really, really negotiate
18:07
Speaker 1: and get a lower rate, can get their concessions paid for.
18:10
Speaker 1: I was talking with an agent yesterday, and it was
18:13
Speaker 1: a house listed at $ 292, 000. The offer came in. Basically,
18:16
Speaker 1: it is $ 25, 000, $ 24, 000 under list price, right? They came
18:19
Speaker 1: in $ 8, 000 under asking, $ 17, 000 in concessions. And she was like,
18:22
Speaker 1: they were freaking out over the $ 17, 000 in concessions. The $ 8, 000
18:24
Speaker 1: off list price is fine, but total about $ 24, 000, $ 25, 000 off.
18:40
Speaker 1: And I said, look, rates are 7.5% right now. That $ 17, 000
18:45
Speaker 1: is going to pay their closing costs and to buy
18:46
Speaker 1: their rate down. So I said, realistically, don't have your
18:51
Speaker 1: sellers negotiate on that. Have them negotiate on the $ 8, 000
18:54
Speaker 1: off the listing price because that doesn't really mean anything
18:58
Speaker 1: in terms of saving them any type of money.
19:02
Speaker 2: Understanding the math of the transaction helps. Reducing the sales
19:05
Speaker 2: price is probably the least effective thing you can do
19:07
Speaker 2: to keep money in your client's pocket right now. I
19:10
Speaker 2: understand if we get deeper into the loan and we're
19:12
Speaker 2: talking about principal and interest and those types of things,
19:14
Speaker 2: that might matter to some people. But I would much
19:16
Speaker 2: rather have that money in the form of cash concessions
19:19
Speaker 2: if the contract can bear it. from a percentage standpoint,
19:21
Speaker 2: all day long. And I think some of that is,
19:23
Speaker 2: you know, we've talked about this before, is agents not
19:25
Speaker 2: understanding how to negotiate it. Another stat I ran across
19:27
Speaker 2: the other day while we were doing videos is the
19:29
Speaker 2: absorption rate in Collin County is less than 40% right now.
19:32
Speaker 2: And there's new homes coming on the market every single day.
19:34
Speaker 2: So from a buyer's perspective, you have tons of, you're
19:37
Speaker 2: the prettiest girl at the dance for every single seller
19:40
Speaker 2: you walk in front of. Every seller is going, and
19:43
Speaker 2: I wouldn't say every seller, any seller who's really serious
19:45
Speaker 2: is going to be intentional about hearing you out. I've
19:48
Speaker 2: had a really easy time negotiating significant repairs, right? A
19:53
Speaker 2: pretty easy time negotiating. You know, we haven't, I will
19:56
Speaker 2: say one space, maybe this is a little short-sighted on
19:58
Speaker 2: me and I'll take criticism on this if people want
20:01
Speaker 2: to give it. I don't really think seller concessions right
20:04
Speaker 2: now are necessarily for rate buy downs the best use
20:08
Speaker 2: of that money for a lot of buyers. Because it
20:11
Speaker 2: takes a significant amount of money to buy your rate
20:12
Speaker 2: down a little bit at 7.5%. And that money could very,
20:16
Speaker 2: very well go towards upgrading the house in some kind
20:18
Speaker 2: of way, replacing some of their down payment if cash
20:21
Speaker 2: is a little bit of an issue for them, as
20:23
Speaker 2: opposed to trying to buy down that rate. I'm also
20:25
Speaker 2: not selling this refinance in a couple of years scenario
20:27
Speaker 2: because I don't think interest rates are going anywhere anytime soon.
20:30
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that at this podcast, we've never... said,
20:34
Speaker 1: you know, marry the house, date the rate. No, I
20:36
Speaker 1: just think it's, one, I just hate dumb realtor cliches.
20:38
Speaker 1: I think it makes us all look like morons.
20:40
Speaker 2: But I just feel like that money for a lot
20:41
Speaker 2: of the buyers I've been working with, it can be
20:43
Speaker 2: better spent, those concessions, as opposed to buying down the
20:46
Speaker 2: rate with other things they want to do, right? Maybe
20:48
Speaker 2: you're getting a house that's, like you were talking about
20:49
Speaker 2: that guy's house in Mesquite at $ 260. We're seeing a
20:51
Speaker 2: lot of sellers right now who bought in a high market.
20:54
Speaker 2: The condition of the house has deteriorated. The house is
20:57
Speaker 2: worth less, less now because it's not just the market.
21:00
Speaker 2: Now the house isn't even as nice as it was before.
21:02
Speaker 2: And somebody coming along might want to do some significant
21:04
Speaker 2: changes to that, and the seller concessions can be applied
21:06
Speaker 2: that direction too.
21:07
Speaker 1: What are you, from an interest rate perspective, so right now,
21:12
Speaker 1: according to Reeler.com, right? This is a survey from Reeler.com,
21:17
Speaker 1: July 24th. You're looking at the Federal Housing Financing Agency,
21:24
Speaker 1: so FHFA. So the shares of outstanding U.S. mortgages by
21:28
Speaker 1: interest rate. So they said that there was 19.5% of
21:31
Speaker 1: people that had mortgages had rates below 3%, right? 30.4%,
21:35
Speaker 1: that was 3% to 4%. 16.8% of 4% to 5%. 11.2%,
21:36
Speaker 1: that was between 5% to 6%. And then 6% or
21:38
Speaker 1: higher is 22.1%. So when we look at this, you
21:56
Speaker 1: do have this, let's see, 30- Two-thirds of the market
21:58
Speaker 1: under 5%? Yeah, two-thirds of the market under 5%, right?
22:03
Speaker 1: And I saw you did a video the other day
22:05
Speaker 1: where people were talking about, well, I'm not going to
22:07
Speaker 1: make a move to trade my 3% to a higher. Well,
22:12
Speaker 1: to counter that, I'm going to agree to disagree, right?
22:16
Speaker 1: What I am seeing right now is that most people
22:20
Speaker 1: are not making a decision- that are selling or moving,
22:27
Speaker 1: if they have a 3%, they're not doing it because
22:29
Speaker 1: they have to, they're doing it because they need to, right?
22:33
Speaker 1: It's basically the wants versus needs. The ones that want things, yeah,
22:37
Speaker 1: they're keeping that low rate, right? That makes sense because
22:40
Speaker 1: they're in a spot that they're like, hey, this house
22:42
Speaker 1: works just fine for me. My mortgage is cheap, right?
22:46
Speaker 1: We're not counting how much insurance has gone up, how
22:48
Speaker 1: much property taxes have gone up. Because theoretically, all that-
22:52
Speaker 1: That's one of the things the comment section taught me. Yes.
22:54
Speaker 1: Not to factor in how much electricity costs have gone up. Yep.
22:58
Speaker 1: Electricity costs have gone up without me just looking and
23:00
Speaker 1: verifying it. So I can be fact-checked. But I believe
23:03
Speaker 1: over the last three to five years, it's up over 35%. Yep.
23:07
Speaker 1: Maybe even 40 plus percent on electricity costs.
23:09
Speaker 2: That video that I did had a lot of people
23:12
Speaker 2: who are a little bit older in the comment section.
23:14
Speaker 2: And one of the things that they were all saying
23:16
Speaker 2: was that it wasn't so much that they wouldn't trade
23:19
Speaker 2: the interest rate. One of the main reasons they would
23:21
Speaker 2: move is because of exactly what you're talking about. It
23:22
Speaker 2: was too much house. The insurance on it had went
23:25
Speaker 2: up significantly. And their cost to maintain it had went
23:28
Speaker 2: up significantly. It wasn't that they wouldn't like to keep
23:31
Speaker 2: the interest rate. It was that the house was just
23:34
Speaker 2: becoming too expensive with the other additional costs that come
23:37
Speaker 2: along with just homeownership.
23:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jesse just fact-checked me. So over the last 10 years, U.S.
23:42
Speaker 1: electricity prices have increased about 30% to 32% nationally. So
23:46
Speaker 1: over the last 10 years. So when we really look at,
23:49
Speaker 1: I mean, again, this is all stuff that I'm, you know,
23:54
Speaker 1: when we talk about this, this is real-world problems that
23:57
Speaker 1: your clients are having because we're experiencing it. I have,
24:00
Speaker 1: during the summer, I have electricity bills that are $ 1, 200
24:02
Speaker 1: to $ 1, 400 a month. It's bananas. Right? My first house
24:05
Speaker 1: payment was $ 1, 280.
24:05
Speaker 2: Wow.
24:09
Speaker 1: And and so Texas insurance premiums have surged from 20
24:13
Speaker 1: from 2020 to 2026. They've increased 79 percent. That's criminal.
24:20
Speaker 1: That is what's the point of keeping insurance?
24:23
Speaker 2: Well, if you're one of the few people whose house
24:25
Speaker 2: actually burns down, you have to do a total replacement.
24:27
Speaker 1: It would be cheaper.
24:29
Speaker 2: Probably it's for some people to pay out of pocket
24:31
Speaker 2: for a roof at this point. than it would be
24:34
Speaker 2: to engage your insurance company for something like that. I
24:36
Speaker 2: used to tell people all the time, getting roofs was
24:37
Speaker 2: like the easiest thing I had ever done in real
24:40
Speaker 2: estate because there was hail damage, insurance companies replaced them,
24:45
Speaker 2: deductibles were reasonable. And I don't think that's the case
24:48
Speaker 2: at all anymore, right?
24:50
Speaker 1: I don't know. I will still say it's the best
24:53
Speaker 1: time to buy a house. We are in a reset.
24:58
Speaker 1: We are in a reset because look, no matter what,
25:01
Speaker 1: Even if you rent, you still have to have what
25:03
Speaker 1: on electricity? Yeah. You still have to... More than likely,
25:07
Speaker 1: I've yet to meet anybody that doesn't have internet in
25:09
Speaker 1: their own place. I don't know anybody. That is almost as...
25:11
Speaker 1: That is almost the same as like, hey, internet and
25:13
Speaker 1: electricity go hand in hand. I did see a stat
25:16
Speaker 1: that people are going back to landlines a little bit. So...
25:18
Speaker 1: Gary Vaynerchuk talked about this a little bit off topic,
25:21
Speaker 1: but he did talk about it. He's like, he calls
25:23
Speaker 1: it the barbell theory, right? Think of a weight, you know,
25:27
Speaker 1: think of a weight rack and you've got plates, weight
25:30
Speaker 1: plates on each side. So a barbell with weights on
25:32
Speaker 1: each side. With one side, you've got the extreme digital
25:36
Speaker 1: revolution that's happening. And the extreme digital revolution is people
25:39
Speaker 1: that are obsessed with technology. They're obsessed with AI. They're
25:43
Speaker 1: just going all in on that video content, social media,
25:46
Speaker 1: you name it. Then you have the other side who
25:48
Speaker 1: are going into the flip phone era, right? They're disconnecting.
25:53
Speaker 1: They're doing more and more activities that don't involve electricity
25:58
Speaker 1: or internet or using your phone or computers. And this
26:05
Speaker 1: analog era is where people are meeting up more and
26:09
Speaker 1: getting back into community. And so he's like, he did say,
26:12
Speaker 1: he's like, There's a business in each and one of those.
26:15
Speaker 1: He's like, where you dies in the middle. You can't
26:18
Speaker 1: be analog and extreme digital tech. Yeah. Right? You have
26:24
Speaker 1: to be obsessed with one or the other and go
26:25
Speaker 1: all in. And he said, look, if you're analog, that's fine.
26:28
Speaker 1: What I would do if I'm that person is I
26:31
Speaker 1: would send a video. I would post a video once
26:34
Speaker 1: a week on social media because they don't really want
26:36
Speaker 1: to do social media either. And I'd say, hey, I
26:39
Speaker 1: want to meet... I'm here to meet six to seven
26:42
Speaker 1: people from the community. Dinner's on me at our favorite,
26:45
Speaker 1: at the favorite local restaurant. And every week or every
26:48
Speaker 1: two weeks that you're, you're just hosting people every six,
26:50
Speaker 1: you know, six to seven people every week to every
26:52
Speaker 1: two weeks. And you're getting back to that belly belly
26:54
Speaker 1: face to face. And just that analog, just having that
26:57
Speaker 1: community together. He's like, there is, there is a spot
27:00
Speaker 1: for that. Now, what he did say is that with
27:05
Speaker 1: an extreme digital kind of revolution that's happening, he's like,
27:10
Speaker 1: websites go away. Websites will still be there, but think
27:14
Speaker 1: of websites like today's business card. He's like, if you're
27:18
Speaker 1: not putting out content, if you're not figuring out how
27:22
Speaker 1: to get AI to recommend, you're in trouble. Yeah. Which
27:27
Speaker 1: is why, and he said, you know, he didn't say
27:31
Speaker 1: this there, but I've listened to others. This is why
27:34
Speaker 1: large corporations will start to win. There's a short window of,
27:40
Speaker 1: That individuals will do really well in that before the
27:44
Speaker 1: companies take it over.
27:45
Speaker 2: Yeah.
27:45
Speaker 1: There was a really, this is a really stupid relational
27:48
Speaker 1: kind of way of thinking about that. But I remember,
27:51
Speaker 1: you know, a little bit pre COVID and during COVID
27:53
Speaker 1: when TikTok ads were all you saw on Facebook. Yep.
27:56
Speaker 2: Right.
27:57
Speaker 1: And I remember scrolling past them and just kind of
27:59
Speaker 1: being like, eh, whatever. Right.
28:00
Speaker 2: But the people who jumped on and started pushing out
28:03
Speaker 2: content immediately are some of the biggest creator. And you
28:05
Speaker 2: can argue about whether TikTok's lame or not. It's easily
28:08
Speaker 2: probably the most used social media outside of YouTube at
28:10
Speaker 2: this point. And those early adopters got a huge advantage
28:14
Speaker 2: over everybody else. And now what we're seeing is, especially
28:16
Speaker 2: with the AI part of things, is companies who have
28:18
Speaker 2: a ton of money to throw at this, are going
28:20
Speaker 2: to outpace everything else. It's part of the reason why
28:22
Speaker 2: you and I's alignment from real estate perspective is where
28:24
Speaker 2: it is. I don't know if keeping up is going
28:27
Speaker 2: to be super possible for small and mid-sized teams. Individual
28:31
Speaker 2: agents could go back to that analog style and totally
28:34
Speaker 2: own that side of things and have a business that
28:35
Speaker 2: looks so, so different. But like you said, dancing around
28:39
Speaker 2: in the middle, I'm eventually going to get to AI.
28:41
Speaker 2: I'm eventually going to do this and learning nothing about it.
28:43
Speaker 2: You're going to get stagnant real quick.
28:45
Speaker 1: I have been obsessed with And obsessing with AI, which
28:49
Speaker 1: is why we get recommendations now in chat and Jim
28:53
Speaker 1: and I and a few of the other ones where
28:56
Speaker 1: the recommendations are happening faster and more and more because
29:00
Speaker 1: it's– what we're doing is one– we're able to combine
29:04
Speaker 1: the forces of the team, right? Where we focus Google reviews, right?
29:10
Speaker 1: I was asked to speak at an event, it was
29:13
Speaker 1: called the Realtor of the Future this past Tuesday. And
29:16
Speaker 1: there was about 50, I believe 50 something agents there.
29:18
Speaker 1: And when I was speaking, we were talking about building
29:21
Speaker 1: out the content, the six engine content machine that just runs.
29:25
Speaker 1: Once you build it, it just runs. And what it
29:27
Speaker 1: does do, this content machine, what it does is it
29:30
Speaker 1: takes a look at where you're ranking, right? And it
29:33
Speaker 1: looks at your rankings that you're gaining influence on to
29:38
Speaker 1: really double down on that versus a lot of people
29:41
Speaker 1: chase rankings that they will never get to. And they
29:44
Speaker 1: spend all their time on that versus they are so
29:47
Speaker 1: close to being able to be recommended or one here,
29:49
Speaker 1: you know, recommended by AI and this that they just
29:52
Speaker 1: don't do it. And I asked the people in the
29:56
Speaker 1: room to raise their hand. I said, how many people...
29:58
Speaker 1: focus on building out and perfecting their, their Google business
30:01
Speaker 1: profile page. One person's hand went up and we don't
30:07
Speaker 1: focus on reviews. We spread the reviews out everywhere. Because
30:10
Speaker 1: we want it to be on everything and it just
30:12
Speaker 1: doesn't work that way. And so my belief is, number one,
30:18
Speaker 1: I will take this to my grave, is that the
30:21
Speaker 1: individual real estate is the middle class and they're dying
30:24
Speaker 1: and they will be gone. There will be a few
30:26
Speaker 1: left in the next five years, but it's going to
30:28
Speaker 1: be the large real estate teams. That's why we're with Place.
30:31
Speaker 1: Place is buying up companies left and right that we're now,
30:37
Speaker 1: what Place owns, they touch about Pretty soon, they're going
30:40
Speaker 1: to touch about 60% of homeowners in some form or
30:44
Speaker 1: fashion with some type of service, mortgage, insurance, home services,
30:49
Speaker 1: et cetera. And so again, this is the race to
30:52
Speaker 1: be able to collect all the data and actually be
30:56
Speaker 1: useful with it. Right. Because most people, what do we do?
31:00
Speaker 1: We have all this, all this information of all the
31:02
Speaker 1: years of selling. You've done nothing with that data. Yeah. Right.
31:06
Speaker 1: We've done a crappy job as a, as individual agents
31:09
Speaker 1: for following up. We don't even put, we don't even
31:12
Speaker 1: call them on their birthdays. Right. We don't, we hardly
31:15
Speaker 1: invite them. You know, I'm going to, I'm going to
31:18
Speaker 1: give Matt some credit here for a We have a
31:25
Speaker 1: pretty large team. And this Pi event, Matt and Victoria,
31:33
Speaker 1: his wife, are leading the Pi event by a pretty
31:36
Speaker 1: large number. And I'm like, guys, why are we not
31:39
Speaker 1: using this? One, it's free to you.
31:43
Speaker 2: Two, you get to give something away to your community.
31:46
Speaker 2: I can't tell you how many people I've reached out to.
31:49
Speaker 2: One of the guys reached out and was like, yeah, no,
31:51
Speaker 2: that sounds awesome.
31:52
Speaker 1: Also, like.
31:53
Speaker 2: my dog passed away and I'm kind of, I kind
31:55
Speaker 2: of want to travel and I'm over it.
31:56
Speaker 1: He's like, well, you sent me evaluation for the house. Right.
31:58
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean it's going anywhere, but I told the
32:01
Speaker 2: agent this on our mastermind that I lead on every
32:03
Speaker 2: Thursday today. I was like, I am not always the
32:06
Speaker 2: greatest follow-up agent with my past clients.
32:09
Speaker 1: Right.
32:09
Speaker 2: Like I love them, but like, you know, I'm, I'm,
32:12
Speaker 2: you know, the older I get, the less I need
32:14
Speaker 2: a bunch of people in my life. And I feel
32:15
Speaker 2: like sometimes I got to be friends with them in
32:17
Speaker 2: order to stay in this like relational space for them
32:18
Speaker 2: and stuff like this new events or the pie events.
32:21
Speaker 2: I use those as kind of my sole driver for
32:23
Speaker 2: staying connected with people in my database. So I don't
32:26
Speaker 2: know why agents who have access to things like that
32:28
Speaker 2: don't matter because then they'll turn around and gripe about
32:30
Speaker 2: splits while not using the things that where you can
32:33
Speaker 2: earn your money back on. I told somebody the other day,
32:35
Speaker 2: I said, my goal is to cost Nick a thousand
32:36
Speaker 2: dollars in pies.
32:37
Speaker 1: Do it. I was like, that's what I want to do.
32:39
Speaker 1: Because I haven't even turned it on yet. I've been waiting.
32:42
Speaker 1: I always wait to be the last just to make
32:44
Speaker 1: sure that I want to make sure that we're using
32:47
Speaker 1: it correctly. But that's the thing that we don't do
32:50
Speaker 1: a very good job of. And that's the reason why
32:52
Speaker 1: we're seeing what's happening. We're seeing this mass exodus. And again,
32:58
Speaker 1: at these conventions that we're all... One, I noticed at
33:01
Speaker 1: the last, the EXP convention, there was less people there.
33:04
Speaker 1: I've noticed that other events, there's less people there. When
33:07
Speaker 1: business gets tough, we see people unplug, we see people
33:11
Speaker 1: kind of retreat. They stop spending money on the stuff
33:13
Speaker 1: that works, right? Because they start to get in this
33:16
Speaker 1: kind of hoarding mentality and kind of put up a
33:19
Speaker 1: safety net. But what it does is it actually hurts
33:21
Speaker 1: their business. It's kind of like raising interest rates. What
33:24
Speaker 1: raising mortgage interest rates squeezes the real estate economy to
33:29
Speaker 1: the point where it's choking it off. And that's what
33:31
Speaker 1: agents do to their own business when they start cutting
33:33
Speaker 1: back or they stop attending because they're not opening up
33:37
Speaker 1: their mind and coming from abundance. And so, you know,
33:41
Speaker 1: the other thing is mentally staying strong. You know, there's
33:47
Speaker 1: I want to go back to the H1B one story
33:48
Speaker 1: a little bit, the H1B. And, you know, there was,
33:53
Speaker 1: there was a local agent. He got, he got a
33:55
Speaker 1: lot of shares, got a lot of comments on it.
33:57
Speaker 1: Like so far, I think a thousand comments on, on
34:00
Speaker 1: his post, but you know, the, the post was talking
34:03
Speaker 1: about how there was like 10 plus families in Slinum
34:06
Speaker 1: and Melissa that abandoned their homes and their cars. And,
34:11
Speaker 1: you know, number one, I've tried to fact check this.
34:13
Speaker 1: We can't, I haven't found any proof that that's factual
34:16
Speaker 1: or not. And, you know, what I do know is that,
34:21
Speaker 1: you know, on these kind of visa programs, I'm sure
34:24
Speaker 1: there's some truth. There's always, you know, behind everything that's
34:27
Speaker 1: blown out of proportion, there's truth behind it. And I
34:31
Speaker 1: do know that there are visas that are, you know,
34:34
Speaker 1: when you as a visa holder, you have a job
34:36
Speaker 1: and you get let go and you no longer work.
34:39
Speaker 1: You basically have 60 days to find a sponsor you
34:41
Speaker 1: have to leave, right? So that is true, right? And
34:44
Speaker 1: so we may see more of that happening as if
34:49
Speaker 1: job loss starts happening, where you start to see visa
34:52
Speaker 1: holders losing jobs, and now they're kind of stuck saying, hey,
34:55
Speaker 1: I have 60 days to either find a job or
34:57
Speaker 1: to determine how to get this house sold. And I
35:00
Speaker 1: have experienced that in Frisco a couple of years, I
35:03
Speaker 1: think it was prior to COVID-19, I had some people
35:07
Speaker 1: that were leaving the country that had to leave fast,
35:10
Speaker 1: and we got the house sold, but they were already
35:15
Speaker 1: back in their home country, and we had to go
35:17
Speaker 1: through the embassy and everything else like that. I do
35:20
Speaker 1: know that there was a proposal to eliminate the 60-day
35:24
Speaker 1: grace period entirely. Um, and you know, for visas, if
35:29
Speaker 1: they lose their job, you just got to go like tomorrow,
35:31
Speaker 1: I guess. So that's a wild, so that they'll have
35:33
Speaker 1: more information on that. It's supposed to do on November 10th. Um, and, and,
35:40
Speaker 1: you know, in Salina, I'm hearing that there's a lot
35:41
Speaker 1: of inventory because a lot of theirs was supposedly. foreign
35:45
Speaker 1: and visa holders buying it up, and we're seeing that
35:49
Speaker 1: the builders are experiencing a massive slowdown.
35:52
Speaker 2: That's the thing that I wonder, is how much of
35:54
Speaker 2: this stuff that we're calling inventory, because it is, is
35:57
Speaker 2: it a resale product or is it a new construction product?
35:59
Speaker 2: Because I could see... builders have to forecast this stuff
36:03
Speaker 2: out in advance. They have to buy this land and
36:06
Speaker 2: they have to develop it and then start doing the houses.
36:08
Speaker 2: And we have had some changes to the, at the
36:12
Speaker 2: very least, the rhetoric around HB1s. And so have there
36:15
Speaker 2: been people that some of those houses were planned for
36:17
Speaker 2: that just never showed up from a numbers perspective? Are
36:20
Speaker 2: there people who, like you were talking about, have lost
36:22
Speaker 2: jobs for whatever reason and 60 days later have had
36:25
Speaker 2: to go and maybe there wasn't enough equity built up
36:29
Speaker 2: in the house? Because again, My understanding is that HB1s
36:32
Speaker 2: are three-year programs, right? So if you just backtrack life
36:36
Speaker 2: to three years ago, and let's say these people are
36:38
Speaker 2: abandoning these houses now in mid-2026 or whatever, those are
36:41
Speaker 2: people who would have bought in early to mid-2023. They're
36:43
Speaker 2: probably not sitting on a boatload of equity to where
36:46
Speaker 2: if they couldn't find a job, homes are selling slower.
36:49
Speaker 2: So realistically, asking somebody to sell a home in 60
36:51
Speaker 2: days may not be doable. I mean, average days on
36:54
Speaker 2: market is over 60 or pretty dang close to it.
36:56
Speaker 2: on average right now. So there may just be contributing
36:59
Speaker 2: factors are all coming together to, to make it seem
37:02
Speaker 2: like there's a certain problem in an area like that,
37:05
Speaker 2: but it's, it's not necessarily one specific thing. And, you know, again,
37:09
Speaker 2: I go back to, you know, if it's 10 people,
37:10
Speaker 2: is that really, is that really much?
37:12
Speaker 1: Well, here's some, here's some stats for you. So Salina
37:15
Speaker 1: has roughly about 15 months of lot supply. So, you know, lots,
37:19
Speaker 1: lots to sell. So there's about 7,000 finished locks versus 1,700
37:26
Speaker 1: annual starts. And this was from stats from Zonda. This
37:29
Speaker 1: was Q1 of 2026. A balanced market in that is
37:32
Speaker 1: about 24 months. And when we look at it, there's
37:40
Speaker 1: a lot of people saying there's neighborhoods built on these
37:42
Speaker 1: visa programs. Well, If we look at logistical stats, DFW
37:48
Speaker 1: had about 32,000 H-1B approvals in the last four years,
37:54
Speaker 1: over the last four years. Now, that is the most
37:57
Speaker 1: of any U.S. metro. So 32,000, right? There's real demand,
38:02
Speaker 1: but it's a tiny, tiny fraction of the buyers. Now,
38:06
Speaker 1: if they are all buying in Salina- It would affect
38:09
Speaker 1: the Salina market pretty hard. Yeah. What is that, Jesse?
38:15
Speaker 1: Jesse's got pulled up. Are those all Salina lots?
38:18
Speaker 2: Or is that just home for sale? Just Salina actives
38:20
Speaker 2: and active under contracts right now. Single family.
38:24
Speaker 1: Single family. Almost 1,100. Almost 1,100 in Salina.
38:26
Speaker 2: Can you just turn that into just what are active
38:28
Speaker 2: and click off the contingency, kick out, and.
38:32
Speaker 1: AOC? I'm dropped it by 20. That is crazy. So Salina.
38:40
Speaker 1: That dropped it by less than 20. So off the MLS,
38:43
Speaker 1: was that 1,057? 1,057 coming soon and actives right now
38:49
Speaker 1: in Salina. In Salina.
38:50
Speaker 2: And I bet you if Jesse went in there and
38:52
Speaker 2: put in 2024 plus and just looked at how many
38:55
Speaker 2: of them are newer, I bet you that's the majority
38:57
Speaker 2: of that inventory as well.
38:59
Speaker 1: Yeah. Right?
39:00
Speaker 2: And again, I do think builders have really gotten into
39:04
Speaker 2: a space where they have a boatload of inventory and.
39:07
Speaker 1: Okay. So you'd call about two thirds.
39:09
Speaker 2: Of that inventory, maybe a little bit more, maybe about 70,
39:11
Speaker 2: but 70% of that inventory has been built in the
39:14
Speaker 2: past three years. That's also about, I mean, Farmersville and
39:18
Speaker 2: Princeton ran into this and I don't know where this
39:20
Speaker 2: ended up, but they halted new construction for a while
39:23
Speaker 2: because they were really, I think they were starting to
39:25
Speaker 2: see the writing on the wall that we are just
39:27
Speaker 2: completely overdoing it. And we have too many houses and
39:30
Speaker 2: not enough people.
39:31
Speaker 1: Right.
39:31
Speaker 2: Not enough infrastructure, not enough whatever. You know, we live
39:34
Speaker 2: in Collin County. We're a little bit insulate. Collin County
39:36
Speaker 2: does a really good. You know, people can bag on
39:38
Speaker 2: Collin County. I think they do a really good job of.
39:40
Speaker 2: of building infrastructure as needed.
39:42
Speaker 1: Right.
39:42
Speaker 2: You know, I mean, Plano is the fourth largest city
39:44
Speaker 2: inside DFW and, and I don't really feel like we
39:47
Speaker 2: have major traffic issues here. Definitely not compared to what
39:51
Speaker 2: you would experience if you went a little bit further
39:52
Speaker 2: South into Dallas and those types of areas. So I
39:54
Speaker 2: think we're a little bit insulated from it, but that
39:57
Speaker 2: number is bananas between prosper and Salina. There being 1500
40:01
Speaker 2: homes available for sale right now.
40:04
Speaker 1: That is. Yeah. I mean, one, if you're a listing agent,
40:10
Speaker 1: or most agents get discouraged, want to take listings, right?
40:13
Speaker 1: You get excited, you know, list to last. I mean, it's, it's,
40:16
Speaker 1: it's just weird just to look at how much of
40:18
Speaker 1: just a, you know, Jesse's pulling up the map here
40:21
Speaker 1: on the MLS. It's just a 700 houses in that
40:24
Speaker 1: dense little area, that little area, just everything's for sale. Right.
40:29
Speaker 1: And so, you know, you can get a little discouraged,
40:32
Speaker 1: but what I will say is, is if you think, uh,
40:36
Speaker 1: if you list houses, pre-owned houses, the way builders list
40:39
Speaker 1: their homes, Let's stop looking at sale list price. Let's
40:42
Speaker 1: start talking in advertising interest rates. Why do you think builders,
40:46
Speaker 1: builders only put up, D.R. Horton is notorious for only
40:49
Speaker 1: advertising interest rates. Yeah. buy this home and get a, what,
40:52
Speaker 1: a 3.9, 4.9%. I don't know if they have any
40:53
Speaker 1: of those left, but they do. They do. They're still
40:55
Speaker 1: out there, right? So you're still seeing that. The 3.9
40:58
Speaker 1: may be gone, but you're seeing and hearing more about
41:01
Speaker 1: the fours, the four and a halves, et cetera. But
41:06
Speaker 1: to go into kind of the last segment I have
41:09
Speaker 1: is hearing these foreclosures that are rising, and we're seeing
41:15
Speaker 1: a lot more stress financial stress and mortgage distress on
41:22
Speaker 1: FHA loans. And the Trump administration back in August or
41:28
Speaker 1: October of 2025 eliminated a lot of the COVID protections
41:36
Speaker 1: that distressed homeowners had. And I now believe that what
41:40
Speaker 1: you're starting to see is a lot of FHA loans
41:44
Speaker 1: were happening from 23, 24, and 25. You're going to
41:47
Speaker 1: start seeing more and more of that popping up. Now,
41:51
Speaker 1: more than 2,700 homes across Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton
41:56
Speaker 1: County entered foreclosures in the first four months of this year.
41:59
Speaker 1: That's up 32%. Collin County is up 44%, but Denton
42:02
Speaker 1: County is up 180%. The fastest growing counties are now
42:09
Speaker 1: showing the fastest growing distress. It makes sense. Man, they
42:12
Speaker 1: just kept going. So you're going to have that happening.
42:17
Speaker 1: But we're still, again, to go back to the crashes
42:21
Speaker 1: already happened on the transactional side, not realistically on the
42:24
Speaker 1: housing prices side, is that if we go back to
42:28
Speaker 1: 2008- So DFW foreclosure starts are up 24%, but that's
42:34
Speaker 1: still only about three quarters of where we were in 2015.
42:38
Speaker 1: So when we really look at it, we're nowhere near
42:41
Speaker 1: the distress of 2008. FHA buyers are the ones that
42:45
Speaker 1: are struggling the most. They have their first-time home buyers,
42:47
Speaker 1: low down payment, but that's only about 6%. Yeah. So
42:54
Speaker 1: it's a small pool, and that small little pool is
42:58
Speaker 1: not going to cause a massive ripple effect.
43:00
Speaker 2: No, and look, one, I did a video about foreclosures recently,
43:05
Speaker 2: and I got a bunch of conflicting information and a
43:06
Speaker 2: bunch of conspiracy theories in the comments section that I
43:08
Speaker 2: actually do kind of want to dive deeper on. But
43:11
Speaker 2: I think FHA, it's an easy one to pull numbers from,
43:13
Speaker 2: and you hit on two of them already. They're going
43:16
Speaker 2: to be a lot more affected by increases in taxes
43:18
Speaker 2: and insurance.
43:19
Speaker 1: Right.
43:20
Speaker 2: They're most likely on a tighter budget, lower down payment.
43:23
Speaker 2: So their equity position they bought in a time when
43:25
Speaker 2: their equity position was already challenging. And on top of
43:27
Speaker 2: they didn't put much money down, which didn't boost their
43:29
Speaker 2: equity position. You know, you've got you've got, you know,
43:32
Speaker 2: diesel costs being what they are, which is driving up
43:34
Speaker 2: food costs and all of the things that typically we
43:36
Speaker 2: buy throughout our days. It's just it's I think it's
43:39
Speaker 2: squeezed them a lot harder. And because they have those
43:40
Speaker 2: lower margins, they can't sell.
43:42
Speaker 1: Right.
43:43
Speaker 2: And so foreclosure tends to be the option that jumps
43:45
Speaker 2: on top of them a little bit faster than I
43:47
Speaker 2: think it would. You know, somebody who's got 20%, you know,
43:51
Speaker 2: equity in their home or 30% equity in their home,
43:52
Speaker 2: which I Googled stats on that the other day. And
43:54
Speaker 2: I was pretty shocked at how many people actually put
43:57
Speaker 2: down 20% because that's not my experience as a real
43:59
Speaker 2: estate agent. Very few of my clients are putting down 20%.
44:01
Speaker 2: And when I went to the math, it's like, 45%
44:04
Speaker 2: of homebuyers are putting down 20% on their, on their home.
44:06
Speaker 1: Right. Well, let's, let's look at that. So I have
44:09
Speaker 1: that stat. So not, not that, but more about the delinquencies.
44:12
Speaker 1: So total nationally FHA has 11.79% delinquencies, right? So 90
44:19
Speaker 1: day lates compared to conventionals at 2.72%. Yeah. Right. So,
44:25
Speaker 1: and then text again, that Texas FHA Sears delinquencies around
44:29
Speaker 1: hovering around 6%, you know, that's up from 3.7. So It's, again,
44:33
Speaker 1: our first-time homebuyers who are already cash-strapped. And the blame
44:38
Speaker 1: is still, it's not necessarily the economy. The blame is
44:42
Speaker 1: home insurance. Home insurance from 2020 is up 80%. So
44:46
Speaker 1: it's like their escrows are just eating them.
44:48
Speaker 2: I had somebody comment the other day, and I thought
44:51
Speaker 2: this was a really interesting video, that their principal, they
44:53
Speaker 2: bought at a point now, their principal and interest is
44:55
Speaker 2: lower than the taxes and insurance portion of their payment.
44:59
Speaker 2: Their taxes and insurance is now more than what their
45:02
Speaker 2: principal and interest is. And I don't know if that
45:04
Speaker 2: maybe is a normal thing. If you started looking at
45:07
Speaker 2: enough loans, you would see that maybe fleshed out. But
45:09
Speaker 2: for some reason in my head, I was like, that
45:11
Speaker 2: seems like that shouldn't be the case, that your taxes
45:14
Speaker 2: and insurance. Now, I could see if you bought a
45:16
Speaker 2: home 15, 16 years ago in Plano, and you bought
45:19
Speaker 2: it at a price, and now it's... 250 times more
45:23
Speaker 2: than that. I understand how you can get there, but
45:26
Speaker 2: I don't think all the people that are in that situation,
45:28
Speaker 2: that's their scenario. I think there are some people who
45:30
Speaker 2: just live in areas where they've been dramatically affected by
45:34
Speaker 2: the increase in value when it comes to their taxes
45:37
Speaker 2: and their insurance.
45:38
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, hearing all that makes, when I read all
45:43
Speaker 1: that and I hear it, I get in this kind of,
45:45
Speaker 1: why would anybody do anything? Yeah. But I will tell
45:48
Speaker 1: you that, again, Coach Burr says it. You've heard me
45:51
Speaker 1: say it. Matt can repeat it. Money changes hands when
45:55
Speaker 1: problems are solved. Yep. There's a lot of problems happening
45:58
Speaker 1: right now. And, you know, as I, as I've been,
46:01
Speaker 1: you know, kind of talking to a lot of my
46:03
Speaker 1: agents and stuff like that, it was my, I go
46:06
Speaker 1: back to 2008 all the way through 2010, kind of
46:09
Speaker 1: where we're kind of feeling everything out through that great
46:11
Speaker 1: financial crash is that right now you're going to come
46:16
Speaker 1: out the other side, bruised, bloody, beaten, tired, emotionally, mentally done. Yep.
46:23
Speaker 1: But you're still going to get there. Yep. Right? It's
46:26
Speaker 1: like kind of shove a square peg through a round hole.
46:29
Speaker 1: It's not going to be pretty. And sometimes your clients
46:32
Speaker 1: aren't always going to be the happiest. This is, you're
46:37
Speaker 1: going to have to, your customer service and your service,
46:40
Speaker 1: you're going to have to do the best that you can.
46:42
Speaker 1: This is not where you're coming out smelling like roses
46:45
Speaker 1: all the time at the end of this transaction. Sometimes
46:48
Speaker 1: telling them the truth is going to hurt them so
46:50
Speaker 1: bad that they may hate you temporarily. Yeah.
46:54
Speaker 2: I think your buyers are where your big wins are
46:57
Speaker 2: going to be, right? I really do think you can
46:59
Speaker 2: really take people who are in rental situations. They've got
47:02
Speaker 2: the down payment. You find out some down payment assistance program.
47:04
Speaker 2: There's a lot of stuff out there. Everybody is fighting
47:06
Speaker 2: for buyer business right there, right now. So I think
47:08
Speaker 2: there's a good opportunity there. I think you have to
47:10
Speaker 2: be willing to have tough conversations with sellers. And from
47:13
Speaker 2: an agent perspective, you've got to be guarded with the
47:14
Speaker 2: type of sellers you take on, right? They really do
47:16
Speaker 2: need to have some sort of motivation to engage with
47:18
Speaker 2: this market. That has probably been my biggest frustration is
47:22
Speaker 2: there's been some opportunities I've had recently that didn't that
47:24
Speaker 2: didn't pan out by the time we got to the
47:26
Speaker 2: end of the listing agreement, because what they said they
47:29
Speaker 2: were going to do versus what they were willing to
47:30
Speaker 2: do when their feet were on the fire were two
47:33
Speaker 2: completely different things.
47:35
Speaker 1: Waiting 12 months is not going to fix the problem.
47:38
Speaker 1: If you have sellers, you have future sellers that are saying,
47:40
Speaker 1: I'm waiting, they're going to be in a worse off.
47:43
Speaker 1: They're not going to like, if they don't like the
47:44
Speaker 1: list price today, they're definitely not going to like the
47:46
Speaker 1: list price in 12 months. The conversation, you got to
47:50
Speaker 1: show them, throw them, show them through stats. It is
47:53
Speaker 1: understand it. If you have to AI it, chat GPT it,
47:56
Speaker 1: cloud it, use it, whatever it is to help you.
47:59
Speaker 1: Do whatever you need to do to show them that,
48:01
Speaker 1: especially if they need to sell today, it's going to
48:03
Speaker 1: be worse off in the next six to 12 months.
48:05
Speaker 1: And if you go to, Josh Deshong made a comment
48:07
Speaker 1: on one of my posts. I think it was about
48:09
Speaker 1: the foreclosures. And he's like, the most amount of money
48:13
Speaker 1: I've made is during these types of times. This is
48:17
Speaker 1: a great opportunity for you financially if you're willing to
48:21
Speaker 1: take it. Taking on listings, you now have an opportunity
48:26
Speaker 1: to take a massive listing inventory and build it up.
48:29
Speaker 1: Because guess what? You don't know when the other side
48:31
Speaker 1: is going to break through. So if you start building
48:34
Speaker 1: up and you start carrying, I remember towards the end
48:37
Speaker 1: of the recession, I think our height, we were carrying
48:39
Speaker 1: about 110, 120 listings. Right? Right. Now, when you get to, yeah,
48:45
Speaker 1: the photo costs are insane. Don't remind me. But when
48:48
Speaker 1: you get to the other side, that's all of a
48:50
Speaker 1: sudden they start. Yeah. Then you start churning like, oh
48:53
Speaker 1: my gosh, can I keep up with this? And it
48:55
Speaker 1: gets you so pumped that you want to keep, you're
48:57
Speaker 1: trying to keep that inventory level going so you can
49:00
Speaker 1: keep that sales cycle going. Yeah. And you'll be out
49:04
Speaker 1: to that other side and you'll recoup a lot of
49:07
Speaker 1: the cash that you may have burned through. You'll come
49:11
Speaker 1: out with a lot more. I promise you that. I
49:13
Speaker 1: completely agree.
49:14
Speaker 2: If you're a buyer who's kind of on the fence
49:15
Speaker 2: right now, too, I think it's worth talking to somebody
49:18
Speaker 2: that you trust about the real estate market. Because I
49:20
Speaker 2: think there's a lot of people out there who just
49:22
Speaker 2: think because interest rates are higher, that's kind of where
49:24
Speaker 2: the conversation stops for them. And you may not just
49:28
Speaker 2: destroy somebody on sales price, but there are a lot
49:30
Speaker 2: of different ways buyers are winning in this market. And again,
49:34
Speaker 2: I'll be the real estate agent who says it's better
49:35
Speaker 2: than renting for 95% of people.
49:37
Speaker 1: I have said... and I'll continue to say it, if
49:42
Speaker 1: you have an agent or a loan officer that is
49:44
Speaker 1: pushing you or advising you to get into temporary rate buy-down,
49:47
Speaker 1: I would run away. Yeah, I agree. We have forbidden
49:53
Speaker 1: our lending team to bring that up and talk about it.
49:56
Speaker 1: If they want to talk about a rate buy-down, it
49:58
Speaker 1: has to be a permanent buy-down. You take the guaranteed
50:01
Speaker 1: win because we don't know where rates are going to
50:03
Speaker 1: be over the next two, three years. And I'd much
50:05
Speaker 1: rather have the guaranteed win Versus you coming back to
50:09
Speaker 1: me in two years or three years and rates aren't lower,
50:12
Speaker 1: and you think that that's what we promised you, and
50:15
Speaker 1: you're in a spot now financially that it hurts you
50:17
Speaker 1: because now your mortgage payment has crept up every single year,
50:20
Speaker 1: and now you can no longer afford it. Yeah, and
50:22
Speaker 1: that's going to feel like a loss. Yeah. Great show today, buddy.
50:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, dude.
50:26
Speaker 1: I loved it. It was great to be in here. Well,
50:28
Speaker 1: if you love this episode, make sure to subscribe, comment.
50:31
Speaker 1: Go join our Facebook group, the DFW Realtor Collaborate Network Group,
50:36
Speaker 1: as well as just tag some agents in this, share
50:38
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50:41
Speaker 1: would want to hear us talk about next time. And
50:42
Speaker 1: if you want to hear Matt come back, just let's
50:45
Speaker 1: make a petition. Let's see. Let's get a Matt movement.
50:47
Speaker 1: Put some middle finger emojis in the comments. That's right.
50:51
Speaker 1: Didn't we change your name?
50:53
Speaker 2: Dude, I don't even know. Yeah, we did change my
50:55
Speaker 2: name at one point. I think I had to roll
50:56
Speaker 2: with a different name for like a week. I can't
50:58
Speaker 2: remember what that was. Yeah, I do know what it was.
51:02
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51:05
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51:30
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