Latest / Merryn Talks Money / If You Had to Buy Something Now and Hold It For 18 Years, What Would It Be?

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If You Had to Buy Something Now and Hold It For 18 Years, What Would It Be? · Merryn Talks Money

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. Welcome to Meron Talks
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Your Money, the Personal Finance edition of Merron Talks Money.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: In these bonus podcasts, we talk about the best strategies
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: for making the most of your money. I'm Marin sum
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Set Web and with me senior reporter and Money to
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: build off for John steppegg Hi, John him Elton now John.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Good news or bad news, depending on how you look
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: at it. This is the last Personal Finance episode of
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: the year. We've had a good run. I hope everyone's
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: been enjoying the thoughts and suggestions that we've put out
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: there in response to your questions. We are going to
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: keep this going, so do send us new questions for
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the new year, and we will do our best to
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: answer them. So one more to go. This is a
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: good one for the final episode. It's got a nice
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: end of year vibe about it. The question comes from Neil.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Neil says, I have three children, the youngest is now twenty.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Well done, Neil, helping out with their fertility crisis. Good
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: work around. When they were born. We invited close friends
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: and family to buy them their eighteenth birthday present, which
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: you put in a nice treasured chest type box and
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  Speaker 1: then hid the boxes in the loft for eighteen years.
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  Speaker 1: I like this bit, but I was kind of vaguely thinking,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: how did he know that people wanted to buy his
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: children eighteenth birthday presents? I wonder if there was any
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: social awkwardness around that, just to thought. Moving on back then,
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  Speaker 1: says Neil. Paper certificates of shares were just being phased
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  Speaker 1: out as Nomini holdings became popular. However, I put in
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: arm holdings paper certificates for each of them as they're
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: present from their parents, the certificates from my name, but
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: photocopied with their names written on, and how many shares
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: we gifted them. We were lucky, and that the armholdings
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: turned out to be our best shares idea of the
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  Speaker 1: last thirty years. Other presents were Lord of the Rings box,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: set of books, that's nice, newspapers from the day they
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: were born, also good red wine, hope you like it,
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  Speaker 1: a gold sovereign. You get the picture. Now, he hasn't
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: told us before we go on. He hasn't told us
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  Speaker 1: how many shares each of them got. Neil, I think
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  Speaker 1: that was an emission, and it's not fair enough because
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: we're nosy, and we want to know how rich that
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  Speaker 1: twenty year old is now now, John, if they've got
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: one share each, one share each. I know you look
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  Speaker 1: this up. What would it be worth now?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean it's been sold off obviously, but we
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: went unlisted. It was roughly adjusted for storks plits. This
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  Speaker 2: was nineteen ninety to eat and there was a bit
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  Speaker 2: forty oid pence and if you look at the child,
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  Speaker 2: there's actually various occasions when it went back down forty pence,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: so basically pen when he sold it, it could have
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  Speaker 2: been a seventeen biger up to nearly a forty biger.
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  Speaker 2: So if you'd bought you know, one hundred quid's worth
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: when it listed, then you'd probably have the best part
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: of four thousand pounds.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Well, I like to think that he gave them one
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  Speaker 1: thousand pounds each of arm shares and this is what happened.
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  Speaker 1: My only concern, of course, is that if you put
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: them in the box, it's the wrong rapper. He didn't
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: put them in a jaiser. Of course, Jayson might not
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: have existed when his youngest child was born. Yeah, but
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: were children allowed? Isis? Children are allowed?
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  Speaker 2: Im? But he could have kept them in his name.
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  Speaker 1: This is the two technical, two technical, like pulling back.
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  Speaker 1: Sorry okay, So here's this question. Neil's question is from
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  Speaker 1: a personal finance viewpoint, what would you put in the box? Nowadays?
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  Speaker 1: I think what he means by that is, please don't
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: bore him with talking about our favorite wine or anything
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  Speaker 1: like that. So, John, here's what we're going to do.
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  Speaker 1: We're going to offer our answers to this question. But
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: before we do, we actually asked a few of the
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: guests who come on the podcast Occasion need to give
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: us their answers.
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  Speaker 3: Here we go, Sean pschief from Ranmore fund Management. Firstly,
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: congratulations to a listener for selecting ARM and finding the
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: needle in the haystack. We know that low starting valuations
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: are a major determined of future returns, so we want
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  Speaker 3: low starting valuations and that means investing outside the US
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: and over the long term, smaller companies generally outperform larger companies. Now,
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  Speaker 3: my compliance officer won't allow me to provide advice, but
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  Speaker 3: if I owned ARM, i'd sell it and invest the proceeds.
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  Speaker 3: And a couple of funds that invest in mostly small
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  Speaker 3: and mid sized companies listed outside the US that are
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  Speaker 3: trading on low valuations.
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  Speaker 1: He's talking about smaller companies outside the US. And one
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  Speaker 1: thing I will say is that I do keep being
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  Speaker 1: told by by people who know these things. There's quite
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  Speaker 1: a lot of value still inside the US. You know,
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  Speaker 1: the fact that we have this very high level of
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  Speaker 1: evaluation based on the Mega seven and their process doesn't
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  Speaker 1: mean there is a value knocking around in various places
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  Speaker 1: in the US. But that's not what Shawn suggesting. He's
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  Speaker 1: suggesting me go outside the US, which is value reasonable.
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  Speaker 1: As he says, over the long term, smaller companies do
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  Speaker 1: have a record of outperforming larger companies, and it is
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  Speaker 1: true that they're an awful lot of very cheap smaller
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  Speaker 1: companies knocking around in the UK and in the EU.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, And also it's eighteen years and if you look
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  Speaker 2: back the current as we always talk about, the USO
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  Speaker 2: performance everywhere else has been astonishing. But you would have thought, surely,
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  Speaker 2: to goodness, over the next eighteen years that got world clause.
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  Speaker 2: And if it doesn't, it just means everything has changed.
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  Speaker 2: Then there's no use in history at all whatsoever anymore.
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  Speaker 1: Well, the only thing I'd say about that, John, is
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  Speaker 1: that as you say, eighteen years is a long time,
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  Speaker 1: and for all we know, over in eighteen year period
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  Speaker 1: things could mean river normalize and then go nuts again.
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  Speaker 1: So in eighteen years we could be right back where
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  Speaker 1: we are now.
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  Speaker 2: Maybe you can get me open the box for the
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  Speaker 2: we check whenever they're like ten.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's tempting to look at I've got
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: in front of me for reference, a chart from the
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: a C showing which sector has come top in the
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  Speaker 1: UK over the last decade, right, And it's tempting when
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: you're talking about something like this to have a lurqancy
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: what has done the absolute worst over this ten year period.
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  Speaker 1: Back in twenty fourteen, UK smaller companies were the worst
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  Speaker 1: performing AIC sector twenty fifteen top, twenty sixteen bottom, twenty
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  Speaker 1: seventeen top, twenty eighteen bottom, twenty nineteen, second from the top,
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty fourth from the bottom. Now it starts being
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  Speaker 1: quite so much fun because it's sort of knocked around
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  Speaker 1: the middle for a bit. That was fun, and then
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  Speaker 1: and here's interesting as well. North America twenty fourteen, fifteen,
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  Speaker 1: sixteen seventeen at the bottom.
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  Speaker 2: That's interesting.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, suddenly starts moving to the top twenty eighteen top,
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  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, twenty twenty twenty one, guess what comes top?
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  Speaker 2: Oh that was the end of the bubble. It wasn't it.
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  Speaker 2: That's going to be UK.
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  Speaker 1: It was property, UK logistics, then growth capital than private equity,
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  Speaker 1: UK property, UK smaller companies. Twenty twenty two were all
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  Speaker 1: mad for income global equity income, twenty twenty three back
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  Speaker 1: to private equity, which of course is a function that
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  Speaker 1: of those very biggest was beginning to close. And twenty
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: twenty four were back to growth capital. Anyway, but if
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: we look at what's at the very bottom in twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty three, twenty twenty four, you think to yourself, well,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: maybe that'll pull itself together. Do you want to guess
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  Speaker 1: to shall I just tell you what's the more fun
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  Speaker 1: way to do it?
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: I take your point on the imagined.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Markets, renewable energy infrastructure. Oh yeah, yeah, So we'll come back.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: We'll come back to that one. We'll come back to
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: that one. But anyway, I thought that was an interesting
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  Speaker 1: way way to do Okay, it's not interesting, it's quite
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  Speaker 1: fun way to look It's a fun way to look
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  Speaker 1: at it. Okay, So well with Sean on Pepper.
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  Speaker 4: Hi, I'm Peper Malmgren, And I'm the CEO of the
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: Geopolitica Institute, so my specialty is world economy, macro geopolitics.
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: And it's very cool to be asked to talk about
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: this time capsule today on Erma's handbag. And I know
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  Speaker 4: that sounds so crazy, but actually, did you know a
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  Speaker 4: broken bag that spotted auction in twenty ten sells for
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  Speaker 4: like fifty percent more today? It literally outpaces pretty much everything.
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  Speaker 4: You pretty much double your money around every ten years
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  Speaker 4: with these things.
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  Speaker 1: I don't now, I can't really buy into this idea
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  Speaker 1: that handbags are are an investment. I'm the wrong kind
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  Speaker 1: of women for this, I think, I don't know. Don't
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: have you got any bucking bags?
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  Speaker 2: I'd late to pretend I did and actually thinking, but
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  Speaker 2: not even my waif has got a handbag that she
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: would discribe as an investment piece. I mean, I get
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: the design of handbags, obviously some of them have going nuts,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: but it strikes me as even by the standards of
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  Speaker 2: trophy asset, it's quite a vulnerable one.
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  Speaker 1: I think so. And also, you know you can only
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  Speaker 1: really ban sell these things at auction, right, so then
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  Speaker 1: you've got buyers and sellers premium, which takes quite a
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  Speaker 1: lot of the ostensible value of them. If you're holding
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  Speaker 1: as an investment, you can't use it, you can't show
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  Speaker 1: off with it, and a status good is something you
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  Speaker 1: want to show off.
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  Speaker 5: Right.
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  Speaker 2: There's not an element of the watch thing here as well,
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  Speaker 2: where it's like you have to be such a good
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: customer that they offer to let you buy one an
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: inflated price in the first place, and then and it's
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: quite it's ultimately quite a rigged market. I think it's
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: fairly say, without impugning anyone, you can just walk any
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: your shop and buy one of these things. You have
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: to be told that you're allowed to buy one.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, I don't know. Why are you
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: asking me?
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: You're a lady. That's why God.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Everyday sexism in action.
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: H R.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: And what about if I suddenly ask you about watches?
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Right, I'm one of these people who just doesn't want
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: to watch on the basis that I own a phone.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: We're frauds, We're literal frauds. I was talking about this
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: with somebody yesterday when we were discussing this them. The
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: other thing that one of our colleagues, Bloomberg, is doing
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: is asking everybody what number they should watch for next year.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: And when I was chatting to the people about it,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: one of the justins was watched the Rowlegs Index because
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of information hidden in that, which is
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: true m.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: Rich well More.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: It's very much a luxury good, very interest rates sensitive.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Who guessed, yes, who could have guessed, And very much
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: the kind of thing that people will buy when confidence
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: is high, when interest rates are low, et cetera, et cetera.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So certainly keep an eye, that's all. Yeah, Moving on, Tom,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Tom macfoul. Now here's a manner from my own heart.
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: What I'd put in the treasure chest is some uranium.
• 10:46
  Speaker 6: I know it's pretty pricey by historical standards right now,
• 10:49
  Speaker 6: but I think when current energy policies play through, the
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: world's going to realize that uranium is pretty useful. Staff
• 10:57
  Speaker 6: in twenty years from now, I think it'll come in uranium.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I know we're supposed to be adding our own different
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: suggestions at the end, but if I really had to
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: choose one, it would be something connected to too nuclear energy.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: It really would. Now we're speaking in a week when
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Ed Millibant has announced some other bonkers energy strategy that
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: involve building pylons all over the place and upsetting people
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: and building more and more wind, et cetera, et cetera.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: And everyone has been talking about this. Everyone suddenly has
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: understood how to access the National Grid live right, there's
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: a website for this, go look it up as absolutely fascinating. Yes,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I watched this all the time. I watched this all
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: the time. Now, John, when you and I are speaking
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: right now, it's a very low wind, low wind moment.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Renewables as a whole of providing nine percent of the
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: UK's electricity, That is six point one percent wind zero
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: point one percent solo. Who could have guessed? And by
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the way, it's not even nighttime. It's pathetic. Hydro electricity
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: two point eight percent. We've also had hydro knocking around now.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: These numbers change all the time. They are constantly on
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: the move. You know you're going took go out the
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: window and see if there's windows so on. That make
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: a rough guess, But of course you don't of tho's
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: windows sun anywhere, and the rest of the UK. You
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: can't guess in advance how much of UK electricity is
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: going to be from renewables. Kuld be forty, could be ten,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: could be fifteen, could be zero. Who knows. Nuclear it's
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: pretty much always the same ninety ten percent of UK electricity.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: It's reliable, straightforward, it's always there for you. This is
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: not an unreliable employee. And eventually everyone is going to
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: notice this. The other great thing about nuclear, of course,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: is you don't have to put pilons everywhere. You don't
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: have to put pilons everywhere. I mean, as you know,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: our grid is designed, or was originally designed for a
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: relatively small number of very large power stations, relatively close
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: to the places where you need energy, and those big
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: power stations go into the grid, the grid, de Liver's energy, etcetera.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: It's not designed for thousands and thousands and thousands of
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: much smaller I mean some very big obviously big wind
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: farms off shore, but also some much smaller energy sources
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: all over the UK. You know, when you see a
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: field it's half covered in solar which is going into
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: the grade. It wasn't designed for that. There's a nightmare
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: for the national grid. It's in a terrible state. And
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: to get it, to get it in a state where
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: it can work with all this stuff and where it
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: can work with more and more and more renewable energy,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: we have to redo the whole thing. And that's why
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: there are protests about pylons and that kind of thing
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: all over the UK at the moment. And that's what
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Ed Miliband is not saying that that planning for those
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: is going to be changed, sort of become national decisions.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: This is going to really kick off over the next
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: year and gradually, I think it will become increasingly clear
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: to everybody if you want to go ahead within at zero,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: but you want to do it without some kind of
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: serious civil unrest, and you want to do it without
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: the lights going off, which right now is something of
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: a risk, something of a risk, you know if.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: You mist what mean.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm entirely with Tom on those twenty years
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: is a long way away. But I suspect that if
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: we were going to see the energy transition that we
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: all think we want to see, it's going to be
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: about nuclear, not about wind. And as one of our
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: other guests always says, Baron Norris says this, and Alec
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Cutler says this. If there isn't any win, there isn't
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: any win, and it doesn't matter how many turbines you
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: put up, any old number multiplied by zero is still zero.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the other issue with this is that
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: to affects all this stuff, we would need to spend
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: an awful lot of money when there are other ways
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: that we could do it more deeply as far as
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: i'm I mean, I'd like to really really delve deeper
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: and this at some point. So I actually I had
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: to figures properly in front of me to can understand
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: this stuff. But the fact of so, the wind's either
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: going whenever it's not needed, in which case you could
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: took them up to things that main bitcoin, but you're
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: gonna have to work to connect that to the grid.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: So I mean, I don't know how expensive or cheap
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: that is.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Also, I'm not entirely sure that put up wind
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: farms all over the place, and it doesn't matter if
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: they don't work for what we want them to work for,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: because we can always mind. Bitcoin is a really good
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: argument for using money. I mean, it cries John, but I.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Can see the argument that they're making there. My only
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: issue with uranium is that you would need to let
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: line the box and be it's volla tails anything.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Well maybe not.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: I can see how the price is vola tail as
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: well as the chemical stock.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: We can put we can put in some shares in
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: chemical or we can put in some yellow cake chares
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: or something like this.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yellowkay, I mean chemical comics. The funniest kind
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: of like stock in the world because every time everything
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: the uranium price goes up and take away, look at chemicals.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: The latest news has always always been a flood the
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: mind flooded.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, anyway, risky business, but you get the idea. So Tom,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: we're not actually putting any uranium in the Church of
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: chest Sorry, okay. Evan Cook has suggested something that is
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: a complete mystery to me. I have no idea what
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: he's talking about.
• 15:59
  Speaker 7: It's Simon Evan Cook, fund manager of the Downing Fox Funds.
• 16:04
  Speaker 7: What I would put in the box is something called
• 16:07
  Speaker 7: magic the gathering cards. Now, i'd imagine most of your
• 16:11
  Speaker 7: listeners don't know what these are. I didn't know until
• 16:13
  Speaker 7: about a year ago when my thirteen year old son
• 16:16
  Speaker 7: as he was at the time, asked me for some
• 16:19
  Speaker 7: for Christmas. I was going to buy him some. I
• 16:21
  Speaker 7: was in the shop. I saw the box there. It's
• 16:22
  Speaker 7: about forty quid for what's called a commander deck. Of
• 16:25
  Speaker 7: these things. You don't need to know what that is.
• 16:28
  Speaker 7: But I didn't buy it the time. I thought I'll
• 16:30
  Speaker 7: just get it later, I'll get it off Amazon or something.
• 16:32
  Speaker 7: But a week later they've gone. You couldn't buy any
• 16:34
  Speaker 7: more of these things. It should have cost me forty
• 16:36
  Speaker 7: quid to buy it now would cost two hundred pounds.
• 16:39
  Speaker 7: So if you think you've made a lot of money
• 16:40
  Speaker 7: two hundred percent from nvideo this year, well try five
• 16:44
  Speaker 7: hundred percent for Magic the Gathering card, Magic.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: The Gathering Cards. I do understand this idea that toys
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming it's a toy, are generational, and that it's
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: a good idea if to buy a very very popular toy,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: stick it in a cupboard, keep it for I say,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: it's more than eighteen years, isn't it. People tend to
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: get a bit of a nostalgia in there in their forties.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I think, yeah, so you might need to hold on
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: for it for longer, and then I can see how
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: this comes around, you know, the Lego stuff and all
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the Fisher Price stuff, all that kind of thing. It's
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: coming around it for our generation, but my generation, at
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: least the Fisher Price garage or we'd love to have
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: that back.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: I've seen kids these days, they've got that same toy.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: New ones.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, either new ones or often like just old ones.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: But anyway, no needed well on that. Then they can
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: just be reissued. And interestingly, I mean a lot of
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: stuff can just be reissued. My son now has a
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: vintage Cassio digital watch. Oh god, it's not vintage, it's reissued.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: You know, it's absolutely great. I'm so envious, and I
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: would get one myself if that wouldn't be really embarrassing.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Can you please space and videos on it?
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: No, we work for you and it. Okay, we are
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: making this. We're making this podcast too long. I think
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: we've basically forgotten we're making a recording. Can you just
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: tell me what magic the gathering cards are?
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: See if you can imagine baseball cards, but just for
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: for fantasy geeks or like Lord of the Rings, you
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: play you can play a game with them.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Okay, no idea what you're talking about? Absolutely none.
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: No.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: I think this is one point where everyday sexism is justified.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I think they're playing cards with pictures of like wizards
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: and things like that on them, and you play a
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: game where it's basically whoever's get the most points wins
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: the magic battle and then you can trade the cards
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: or whatever. But they've got this elaborate art on them,
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: and I guess they can have top Trump's type powers
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: that the individual cards have got make them more appealing.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: Another thing is you can but you buy them in packs,
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: but you don't know what's in the pack. So you
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: might open the pack and it's got like five really
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: rubbishy common cards but one amazing one. It's very clever
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: way you play into the nerdy instinct the collectors instead.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: And also you know does an element he can obviously
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: it's artifacial reality and that you know, they could print
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: a lot more of these counts if they wanted to,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: But it's that sort of thing. And this is I
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: think this was one of the very fust of those
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: tapes of games that came out. I think it was
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: maybe when I was a teenager. So you know, actually
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: get people with collect I mean some of them really
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: do go for like stupid sums of my knee.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Remind me not to ask questions like that. Ever, every
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: game rerementing us I mildly disapproved sounds like gambling for children.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Gambling for children.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Adam Rakley, Cape rev Capital.
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: I would suggest newspaper clippings of headlines of bitcoin hitting
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: one hundred thousand dollars, because I think that in eighteen
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: years time these will be fantastic reminders of extraordinary popular
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: delusions and the madness of crowds. I've got to go now, actually,
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: because I've got a gang of laser hoddlers that's on
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: my office window, so by we're.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Just gonna leave that one there. I I'm I'm kind
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: of with Adam, but I know I'm not really allowed
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: to be anymore, so moving on. Okay, So that is
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: the ones that sent us in voice memos, Thanks very much,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: you lot very efficient. And then we have a couple
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: that came in as text only, so I'm gonna read
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: those out. One comes from rough as Duncan mcinness. The
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: safe but boring answer, he says, is the cockroach portfolio.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I'll leave you all to go and look that up.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: But that's no fun, and it really isn't any funitely,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: so on an eighteen year horizon, you need to either
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: swing for the fences like armholding, or pick something that
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: is highly likely to endure at the intersection of these
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: two characteristics asymmetrical upside and lindy characteristics, would of course
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: be a portfolio of gold and bitcoin. A separate thorny
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: question then arises about the medium on which you would
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: still bitcoin for eighteen years? Will you USB six still
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: work in twenty forty three? Good question, So many questions
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: about what happens if you try and stow a bit
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: going for eighteen y How about then he suggests a
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: government guaranteed two one hundred and sixty percent return tax free.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: The zero point five twenty sixty one UK guilt trades
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: at twenty eight pounds and will redeem at one hundred
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: pounds in thirty seven years. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: that that one hundred pounds will be able to buy
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: you more than a dairy milk and a count of
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: coke by then, although to be honest, most kids are
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: pretty have you with the dairy milk and account of coke?
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Maybe maybe not at eighteen? Actually you'll have to add
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: in the rum, so perhaps safe. Actually not today's young
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: they don't like rum anymore.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: Yes, the proma They would think that cork was probably
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: just too sugarly.
• 21:45
  Speaker 7: I don't know.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: I can see your kids drinking rum am I am,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I getting distracted again. I'm going to distract it again
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: nearly Christmas. So anyway, so perhaps it's safer to off
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: for the twenty forty two UK Index linked guilt, which
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: will pay the bear inflation plus one point four percent
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: per year for every year between now and redemption. That
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: is not a home run, but it's a guaranteed preservation
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: and enhancement of your purchasing power from one generation to
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: the next, which, to be honest, is worth quite a
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: lot in itself. Next up Alex Wright Fidelity. It goes
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: without saying that the main gift would be FSV shares.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: That's Fidelity Special Value Shares, which just happens to be
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: the trust that Alex himself runs, currently trading on an
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: attractive nine percent discount, and which invests in companies trading
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: on a meaningful discount to the UK market, which is
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: is itself attractively valued in a historical and global context,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: as anyone who listens to this podcast will know very well.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: The trust recently celebrated its thirty year anniversary and has
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: returned annualized over returns of eleven point nine percent and
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: annualized outperformance of four point seven percent compared to the
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: foot Seat all share Index. Alex, I'm taking it. I've
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: read it out, but we didn't actually ask you to
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: send in an ad. Right next up, Nick Greenwood, I
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: will put in some seraphins base shares. The industry is
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: exploiting new technologies used in sectors as diverse as communications
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: and insurance. However, the biggest customer to demand comes from
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: the defense sector, where budgets are only going one way.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: On the front of the newspaper this week, right Trump
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: asking everyone in Europe come up with five percent. We'd
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: like to bogle him down three and a half percent.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: It's expensive stuff war. Sadly, today's efants are going to
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: face far greater at geopolitical uncertainties than the armed generation. Right,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I didn't mean to end on a deaf note. There
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: not a dough note, but you know, a depressing note. Depressing.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: That's not the end. We can discuss these ideas.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: It's supposed to be a Christmas podcast Onto Duncan. I mean,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: he's absolutely right on the Cockroach portfolio. It's a very
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: effective way to invest. We may actually do a full
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: podcast on a new year because it's effective, if very
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: very dull golden bitcoin combined. So far, that's been a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: brilliant idea. Our old friend Charlie Morris has talked about
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: it on the podcast Worth Doing. If that's the way
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: you want to go, also, of course his guilt idea.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I do think it's an excellent way one, Alex. You know, yes, okay,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: it is a bit of an ad, but he's also right.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: He's also right, you know, this is a this is
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: probably an excellent investment over the very long term. Nick,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I'm totally with that as well. Seraphim space shares. Would
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: you buy those?
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: John?
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: Would you? I think it's as good as don can
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: put it, sort of the swinging for the fence's wine, Yeah,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: or either work or warint. But if it does work,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: it could be a proper you know, it could be
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: like it could be like a multi biger.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think one thing we do need to say
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: here that is a lot of these are speculative. Eighteen
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: years is a long time and so you need to
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: be prepared if you choose something like this that when
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: you open the box in eighteen years, there is nothing
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: in there.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting question because there's it mays you think
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: there's also an element of fun to it. So I
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: don't think you should thank you. This particular question is
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: being what it's definitely going to make the most money
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: over the eighteen years. There's an element culture all effect
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: to it as well.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Right, that is all we had in from our contributor.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: I'm very pro the uranium one, although again, as you said,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure how we do that, and I'm
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: afraid that I would also say that as lots of
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: these speculative I would still put that gold sovereign in.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: I really would. There aren't very many things that we know,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: over the very long time hold their purchasing power, But
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: one of those things is that gold sovereign. I definitely
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: put that in. Maybe several of those. You'd probably put
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: some silver in, wouldn't you, John, big lump of silver.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: They wouldn't be able to dig the box up.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: At the end. No, not its silver. Gold. Gold is
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: a sensible word. You get them myself, a tea set
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: or something like that, and then if it turns of
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: it to be what my need, you can always melt
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: it in, all right?
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: And what else would you put in?
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: Then?
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: I found the question quite interest, and I was thinking,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: looking down the foot three fifty, I was thinking, what
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: are companies and what products there I think might still
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: be here in twenty years. I would also be kind
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: of have some interest. And basically I picked too And
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: this is not based on the valuations, and they're not recommendations.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: It's more the kind of the theme. And I pic
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: to games Workshop, Gregg's and Bloomsbury because I was looking
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: down the list and I was thinking, the fossil fuels
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: may or may not even you know, be a thing
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: in eighteen years time, depending on what's happened. There's lots
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: of other things where you're like, well, this stuff could
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: get disrupted, this may this might not. But I was
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: thinking in eighteen years time, there's probably a good chance
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: that people will still be eating Greg's sausage rolls. There's
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: probably a good chance that the intellectual property behind games Workshop,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: which is I mean this is a lot like the
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Magic the Gathering cards. So I will not go there
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: any further. All the all the men out there know
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: what I'm talking about, and people will still be reading
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Harry Potter books, and I suspect Bloomsbury will still own
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: rights to those. Yes, so basically that was thinking behind
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: three shows with the three ft for that well have
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: a good chance of still existing and quite possibly being
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: even more successful. And it's fundamentally because of the intellectual property.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Very clever.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Thank.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: You, And I think we've we've probably talked enough, we've
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: probably cooked enough. Probably I've gone off on too many
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: tangents as well, so I think we're going to have
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: to leave it there. But thank you, John, and thank
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: you to everybody who sent this suggestions in. We really
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thank you for listening to this week's Maren
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Talk to Your Money. If you like our show, rate
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: review and subscribe whatever you listen to your podcast. Also,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: if you shoued, follow me in John on x or
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Twitter at marins w and John Underscore stepic. This episode
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: was produced by Sumasadi Production Support and xuand designed by
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Moses and Questions and comments on this show and all
• 27:55
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• 27:58
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• 28:43
  Speaker 1: I think that might take quite a lot of editing,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: quite Ranbly
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: That's very tightful of you, Moses.