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On a winning streak, Trump turns his attention to Ukraine · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm christanamiot.
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  Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, October fifteenth, twenty twenty five. Northern Territory principle
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  Speaker 1: Gavin Morris will learn his fate on Wednesday after he
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  Speaker 1: was charged with physically assaulting five students. The former principal
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  Speaker 1: of Yuporinia School in Alice Springs came to prominence during
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  Speaker 1: the town's youth crime crisis and pleaded not guilty to
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  Speaker 1: allegedly choking and pulling the ears of five boys. That
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  Speaker 1: story is live right now at the Australian dot com
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  Speaker 1: dot au. Phase one of a historic Middle East peace
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  Speaker 1: deal is all but done, with the return of twenty
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  Speaker 1: living hostages to Israel and the release of thousands of
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  Speaker 1: Palestinian prisoners. But that doesn't necessarily mean smooth sailing for
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  Speaker 1: the next step. Plus, as the world celebrates peace in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East, the question becomes, what about Ukraine. That's
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  Speaker 1: today's episode. In Chamel Shaik in Egypt, on Monday, US
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  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump and more than twenty world leaders gathered
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  Speaker 1: to witness the official signing of a historic peace deal
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  Speaker 1: between Israel and Hamas. This took three thousand years to
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  Speaker 1: get to this point, can you believe it?
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  Speaker 2: And it's going to hold up to It's going to
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  Speaker 2: hold up.
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  Speaker 1: Among those in attendance was Palestinian Authority President Macmuda Bass,
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  Speaker 1: French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Kirs Starmer and
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  Speaker 1: former PM Tony Blair, who'll be involved with a proposed
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  Speaker 1: new peace council. They were joined by officials from Qatar,
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  Speaker 1: Egypt and Turkey who led negotiations. What if anything should
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  Speaker 1: we make of the mix of leaders in the room
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  Speaker 1: for the signing of the peace agreement on Monday.
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  Speaker 2: I think the most important thing was the number of
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  Speaker 2: leaders of Arab nations were there.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.
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  Speaker 2: And that really is one of the key things that
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  Speaker 2: has put enormous pressure on Hamas because they just realize
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  Speaker 2: they've lost the backing of the mainstream Arab world and
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  Speaker 2: that's a massive thing. So there now they've got no
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  Speaker 2: one to turn to, they've got no benefactors. And there's
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  Speaker 2: been a huge achievement, I think by Donald Trump and
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  Speaker 2: the United States to actually get to this point where
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  Speaker 2: the Arabs have come round and backed his peace steal.
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  Speaker 2: That's just a massive moment. And I think the combination
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  Speaker 2: of the fact that the peace deal has thrown out
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  Speaker 2: some of the absurd elements on the left and the
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  Speaker 2: right and has got a much more mainstream, middle of
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  Speaker 2: the road position on the whole range of issues is
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  Speaker 2: backed of course by Israel, the US, Western Europe and
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  Speaker 2: Arab States, really means Hamas has got nowhere to go.
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  Speaker 1: Frankly, Donald Trump clearly sees this as a done deal.
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  Speaker 1: If he's addressed to the Kinesset on Monday night, has
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  Speaker 1: anything to go by.
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  Speaker 2: This is not only the end of a war, this
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  Speaker 2: is the end of the age of terror and death,
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  Speaker 2: and this is the historic dawn of a new Middle East.
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  Speaker 1: But even in the midst of this historic deal, he's
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  Speaker 1: taken the opportunity to talk about tariffs, for example, what's
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  Speaker 1: the risk for the Middle East and really for the
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  Speaker 1: rest of the world if his attention is diverted to
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  Speaker 1: other things Now that he sees this deal as being.
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  Speaker 2: Done, well, it's going to be a good test of
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump's determination and concentration, I guess over the longer term,
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  Speaker 2: because yes, you're right, this piece deal in the Middle
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  Speaker 2: East is deliberately staged in phases, and it's deliberately done
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  Speaker 2: so because you couldn't have the whole thing delivered at once.
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  Speaker 2: It has to be done for negotiated phases, and that
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  Speaker 2: requires a very present US president. It requires a US
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  Speaker 2: president to push each stage with the equal zest to
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  Speaker 2: get it through. And in fact the stage has become harder.
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  Speaker 2: The hostage release stage was actually one of the easier
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  Speaker 2: ones compared to the other ones. So you're really right.
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  Speaker 2: Trump is cut a lot on with his tariff wars
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  Speaker 2: around the world, Ukraine, lots of civil unrest at home.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a busy man, and so he's going
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  Speaker 2: to have to be very much on the wall with
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  Speaker 2: this piece deal because the moment America gets distracted, that
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  Speaker 2: leaves room for mischief elsewhere with Hamas, potentially even with Israel,
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  Speaker 2: with Arab nations. I mean, you really need America to
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  Speaker 2: be there very strongly and centrally.
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  Speaker 1: In the steal is the return of twenty eight deceased hostages,
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  Speaker 1: which has yet to happen because Hammas says they're either
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  Speaker 1: unsure of their location or because those hostages their bodies
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  Speaker 1: are in the custody of other groups. In Gaza. Is
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  Speaker 1: that a way for Donald Trump to keep pressure on
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  Speaker 1: Hamas to follow through on this deal, at least in
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  Speaker 1: the immediate future, do you think yes.
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  Speaker 2: I think he's going to use every sort of element
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  Speaker 2: can to keep the pressure on her Mass. And then
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  Speaker 2: certainly he was distressing for the families waiting for these
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  Speaker 2: poor decease sausages to come home, with only four of
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  Speaker 2: them out of twenty eight came home on the first day. Look,
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  Speaker 2: I don't think it's the sort of thing that would
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  Speaker 2: derail the peace deal because I think it's genuine that
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  Speaker 2: Harmas simply can't find a lot of these bodies, because
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  Speaker 2: why would they give over all the life hostages and
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  Speaker 2: not the ones who have passed away. So I think
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  Speaker 2: it's a temporary irritant rather than anything larger. I think
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  Speaker 2: the larger test will come, Kristen, when we get the
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  Speaker 2: second phase of the peace deal, we get to the
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  Speaker 2: point end of that where they really look at her
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  Speaker 2: Mass Americans and say, okay, this time to disarm, and
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  Speaker 2: we are creating an interim government here that is going
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  Speaker 2: to replace you as the power source in Gaza. That's
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  Speaker 2: going to be a progress that really will put pressure
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  Speaker 2: on her Mass, and that's when we'll know a lot
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  Speaker 2: more about exactly what sort of group a Mass is
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  Speaker 2: now after two years of war.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about that. Is the Hamas we're seeing
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  Speaker 1: now the same Hammas that we've seen up to this point.
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  Speaker 2: Well, certainly it's still the same despicable, sort of murderous
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  Speaker 2: terrorist group. There's no doubt about that. They they suddenly
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  Speaker 2: become nice guys here. But what we are seeing is
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  Speaker 2: that the Hamas of today is not the Mass even
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  Speaker 2: of a few months ago. I mean, we would never
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  Speaker 2: have seen the sort of concessions that the Mass has
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  Speaker 2: given to get to this piece deal. Even a few
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  Speaker 2: months ago. They were just completely belligerent on almost every
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  Speaker 2: aspect of a solution then. But now we've seen them
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  Speaker 2: do things you never would have dreamed of. To release
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  Speaker 2: all of the live hostages at once is amazing because
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  Speaker 2: they effectively lose their leverage against Benjamin at Yahu's Israel.
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  Speaker 2: And secondly, Hamas was always insistent that if it ever
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  Speaker 2: released hostages, the Israelis could not have military presence in Gaza.
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  Speaker 2: As it turns out, Israel still controls effectively half of Gaza,
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  Speaker 2: yet all of the hostage is relieved. My point being
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  Speaker 2: that Hamas is a group now that has been beaten
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  Speaker 2: and bludgeoned down by two years of war. Its main
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  Speaker 2: commanders have been killed, It's best fighters have been killed.
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  Speaker 2: It hasn't really got a coherent command structure in any way,
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  Speaker 2: or it's not destroyed. There's still a lot of potential
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  Speaker 2: militants out there, but it's not really a piece of force,
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  Speaker 2: and it's certainly open to negotiation by forced hand, if
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  Speaker 2: you like, much more so than it ever was before.
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  Speaker 2: So that's why I think that Hamas could easily get
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  Speaker 2: to a position where it feels it will negotiate some
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  Speaker 2: sort of successful progress on the peace plan, simply because
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  Speaker 2: it is such a weakened body.
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  Speaker 1: What about the next layer of this equation. Obviously we've
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  Speaker 1: got Hamas being backed by Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran.
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  Speaker 1: What do you think is in the minds of those
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  Speaker 1: groups now?
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  Speaker 2: I think they have just been completely comprehensively defeated by Israel.
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  Speaker 2: It's been just such a historic disaster for the axis
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  Speaker 2: of Islamic evil, if you like, in the Middle East.
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  Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is, of course Esbala
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  Speaker 2: and Iran, the Hooths and Hamas. Each of those entities
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  Speaker 2: have had significant defeats in the two years since the
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  Speaker 2: October seventh massacre of Israelis. It is a game changing
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  Speaker 2: strategic defeat for these groups, and it is iranic. Given
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  Speaker 2: though we've had absolute catastrophic death and disaster in Gaza,
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  Speaker 2: the Israel today is so much safer than it was
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  Speaker 2: before October seven on every single border. That's not to
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  Speaker 2: say there won't be lots of problems in the future.
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  Speaker 2: This is the Middle East, after all, but it's really
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  Speaker 2: been a strategic game changer the last two years, and
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  Speaker 2: certainly with Netanyahu. He's been heavily criticized for his heavy
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  Speaker 2: handed policies in Gaza, but certainly on a broader strategic canvas,
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  Speaker 2: he's been remarkably successful in cowering hezba Iran and the
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  Speaker 2: hooth Is, and of course, even in Gaza, despite the
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  Speaker 2: terrible civilian toll, Hamas is a broken force.
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  Speaker 1: Effectively coming up will Donald Trump throw his weight around
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  Speaker 1: in the Russia Ukraine conflict. In the midst of last
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  Speaker 1: year's presidential election campaign, Donald Trump made a characteristically bombastic claim,
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  Speaker 1: if I were president, and I say this, I will
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  Speaker 1: end that war on one day, I would get that
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  Speaker 1: deal done within twenty four hours.
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  Speaker 2: That war has to be stopped. That war is a disaster.
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  Speaker 1: But as Trump takes a victory lap in the Middle East,
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  Speaker 1: the reality in Ukraine becomes even more stark. You mentioned
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  Speaker 1: earlier that Donald Trump is spinning a lot of plates
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  Speaker 1: at the moment, one of which is the conflict that's
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  Speaker 1: happening between Russia and Ukraine. What does this historic success
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  Speaker 1: in the Middle East mean for Ukraine? Camp do you
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  Speaker 1: think Vladimir Zelenski is watching what's unfolding with some hope
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  Speaker 1: that peace can be achieved in his country as well well?
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  Speaker 2: In fact, yes, Zelensky came out and said, this is
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  Speaker 2: how you win deals. You be heavy on the enemy,
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  Speaker 2: And of course he meant with Hamas and that situation,
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  Speaker 2: but of course with Ukraine that's Russia. So really, I
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  Speaker 2: think Trump is buoyed by his diplomatic success in the
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  Speaker 2: Middle East and having a second look at Ukraine, which
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  Speaker 2: would be really interesting because he's also in the same breadth.
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  Speaker 2: Has suggested he might even provide Tomahawk long range for
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  Speaker 2: his missiles to Ukraine. Now, that would be remarkable because
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  Speaker 2: the Americans have never done that, so The key with
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine is that while Donald Trump has said the US
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  Speaker 2: won't supply direct weapons to Ukraine because that was his
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  Speaker 2: campaign pledge when he was getting elected, he is willing
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  Speaker 2: to sell US weapons to European nations who can on
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  Speaker 2: sell them to Ukraine. So really the truth of it
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  Speaker 2: is that Ukraine will still be supplied by the West
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  Speaker 2: in a way that we weren't certain about when Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump was elected. So that's very good news for Ukraine,
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  Speaker 2: and that's something which is going to be very important
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  Speaker 2: to actually be able to keep Ukraine fighting effectively against
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  Speaker 2: Russia for the indefinite future. Now that sort of rhetoric,
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  Speaker 2: you don't know how serious to take Trump when he
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  Speaker 2: says that sort of thing, But the bottom line is
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  Speaker 2: he's clearly thinking about a tactic which sees him and
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  Speaker 2: the USB a lot fer against Vladimir Putin to try
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  Speaker 2: and push Putin to the negotiating table, having failed to
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  Speaker 2: flatter Putin to the negotiating table. That is the sort
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  Speaker 2: of sense that we're getting that Trump would like to
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  Speaker 2: bounce off the Middle East Deal and then go back
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  Speaker 2: into the Ukraine talks and see what he can come
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  Speaker 2: up with.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. Can read
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  Speaker 1: all his reporting and analysis anytime at the Australian dot
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  Speaker 1: com dot auth