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A Deep Dive Into Markets, Tesla Earnings Preview · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now. UM, I'm looking
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: at gt V go right now. If you pull that
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: up on your Bloomberg terminal, you can see a number
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: of charts that we use on television. UM and if
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: you click on four go you'll see something I noticed earlier.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Danny Burger pointed it out to me. The VIX has
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: come back down to kind of the lows of the year,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: whereas the move index has shot up. Volatility and fixed
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: income is um movies okay, exactly, And we've seen, you know,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: the sell off which has been pretty amazing to me.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: In the course of a month. We've gone from one
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: one sixty handle. Right now, the ten year yield is
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: trading at one sixty four. But we've seen the short
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: end of the curve um sell off even more sharply.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Hans Olsen is with us right now chief investment officer
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: at Fiduciary Trust Company, Hans. Great to have you on
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: the program, Thanks so much for joining us. You you
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: also have noticed this divergence. Um, you know, equities are
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: sailing right along back up above on the SMP five hundred,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: whereas we've got this weird sell off and volatility in
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: fixed income. What's happening. Yeah, it seems as if there
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: are you know, different parts of the market are are
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: making bets that are hundred and eighty degrees uh, you know,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: toward one another. You know, the equity market seems to
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: be telling us that everything is going to be fine.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Don't worry about inflation. It's going to be transitory. It's
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: all going to work out, don't worry about h you know,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: the taper bond market not so much. If you look
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: across matt If you look across the entire landscape of
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: fixed income over the course of this month, it's down
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: if it's struggled, in fact, over the course of the
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: entire year. But it's especially noteworthy in October when the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: equity market has caught another wind and the bond market
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: says hold on. This is worrisome and at the same
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: time the dollar is struggling as well. Well, Hans, I
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: kind of you know, I'm an equity person, equity analyst
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: by training, but I've always been told is follow the
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: bond market. Um, what is this divirgence telling you here?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Should we as equity investors be a little bit more
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: nervous than maybe we are? Yeah? I do. I mean
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I think that what we're seeing as a reprieve in
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the in the concerns that the equity market had last month,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: given the earnings. I mean, as you said earlier, you know,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: the earnings, the earnings flow over the last couple of
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: days have been fantastic. You know Netflix this morning, last night, Uh,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: um by a gen Verizon? All good? Right, So it
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: sort of steals the nerves of investors. But um, you
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: know we're going to get We're going to get over
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the next month. Right. More and more central bankers five
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: and them are going to talk about it today, Um,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: their views on what a taper might look like. So
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: when the when, the the the the concept at the
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: taper starts to become a reality and we continue to
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: get more pushed through on prices. Um, you know, I
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: think there will be a reconsideration of where we stand.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: On the part of equities, there's a lot of I
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: think price risk and equities right now. If if we
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: start to have a reset in interest rates. Um, we've
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: been concerned about. As you said, inflation is a transitory.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Everybody was talking about stag inflation last week at the
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: beginning this week, although it seemed many people had very
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: different definitions of stagflation. But all the concern has been
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: about chips and chips really at the heart of it.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I've heard less and less about COVID until you know
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: this resurgence that we're seeing in the UK and now
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: the US as well. Are are you worried about that
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: as an investor that we're we don't really have our
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: eye on the ball. He No, I think you know
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: from from the infections. I do think what we're seeing
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: is that it's it's becoming this um increasingly a pandemic
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: now of the unvaccinated right and and more and more
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: people are getting vaccinated, unfortunately not at a rate that
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: perhaps a lot of us would like. But I do
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: think on the inflation front, I think we have to
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Matt look at sort of the sticky inflation versus non
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: sticky inflation. If we look at sort of sticky inflation. Um,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: what we're finding is that we're back to levels that
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: we were prior to the pandemic. So you know, the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: amount of FED cuts it into two buckets, sticky and
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: non sticky sticky stuff. It tends to be prices that
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: don't um um. They don't move around a lot, right,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: so you know, rents um, auto registrations and the like.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: If they go up, they don't tend to come back down. Um.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: And if you look at it from that angle, and
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: we're running close to three pc on a year of
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: a year basis on that on the sticky inflation a
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: little less so on on core sticky UM, the names
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: get a bit a bit comical. But what the reality
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: is is that I think we are resetting and I'm
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: not sure that we're pricing that even as we work
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: through this next phase of the pandemic. And eventually, you know,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: this becomes more like a seasonal flu becaus it becomes
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: endemic rather than what it has been. Hans, we're getting
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: into the teeth of earnings, UH this week, what do
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: you really need to hear from Corporate America as you
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: read these comments and listen to these conference calls what
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I need to hear for the to make me feel
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: better about things. Well, I don't think that UM any
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: sense that they can They can deal uh with the
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: input costs rising the way they are, either either by
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: being able to maintain their margins, UH maybe perhaps even
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: price rises in order to maintain those margins. Those would
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: be the very good things, and that's what I would
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: be looking for. I mean, without a doubt. I mean,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the the the earnings expectations for this quarter, for this year,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: UM remain you know, very good on very solid revenue growth,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: and even though it's going to slow next year, it's
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: still pretty solid. So I think there's reason to to
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: stick with equities at this point. But we're going to
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: have to buckle up at some point here when when
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: we start to get this policy pivot, which which eventually
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: is going to happen. All right, Hans, great to get
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: some time with you. Really appreciate your insight today. Hans
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Olsen is chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company out
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: of Boston. This is Bloomberg JT with our Bloomberg Business Flash,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: and he mentioned the VIX. We were just talking about
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: this point. But I can't believe how low it is,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: how sanguine investors are, or at least appear to be
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: by that measure. Let's bringing Kara Murphy, she's chief investment
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: officer at Castra Investment Management. And what does it mean
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: to you, Kara that we see you know, bond selling
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: off UM and the VIX at least signaling that there's
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: very little concern in the equity markets. Yeah, and quite
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: a difference from just a couple of weeks ago, right
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: where there was a lot of handwringing and consternation. And
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: I think what you're seeing is this push pull um
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: as we shift from a COVID economy to a post
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: COVID economy. So I think we're still you know, the
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: market is very much testing how equips, companies and the
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: rest of the economy are to be able to manage
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: this type of transition where we have a less aggressive FED,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: less supportive fiscal policy, and more normal levels of economic growth.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: And you know that there are there is still handwringing
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: about things like stagflation. Right we're seeing Google searches for
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: the term skyrocket, so there are definitely concerns out there,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: but for now, risk assets seemed to be brushing off
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: those concerns alright, Cat in the context of ricks risk
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: assets in the equity markets, what are the sectors that
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: you are looking at right now? Again, looks like the
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: markets getting another tailwind here. Where are you spending your time? So,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: one one of the big concerns in equity markets is valuations.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: You have a lot of great things going for risk
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: assets UM in terms of, you know, even though you
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: have a descellering, decelerating FED support, you still do have
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: a very committed, a combinative monetary and fiscal policy. You
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: have some of the best free cash flow generation ever,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: really strong balance sheets. But then when you get to valuation,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: that's the one kind of chink in the armor of
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: equities right here. So I think what that's telling us
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: is that forward returns are going to be more muted
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: than what we've seen in the recent past. And because
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: of that, we really favor areas that have that you know,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: profile of the really strong cash flow generation UM. Areas
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: where you can find more quality as opposed to UM
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: either you know, UH, deep value plays where you're looking
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: for um A rebound, or areas where you might be
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: relying on extraordinary levels of continued growth we would favor
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: those companies that have high quality. What about UM I
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: think about the financials a lot, and how important it
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: is that they get the curve, that they had the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: curve in the right place their rates higher. Are you
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: betting that rates are going to rise or is it
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: not worth it to place that bet right now? So
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: financials definitely need a certain level of interest rate in
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: order to be able to earn money, but then they
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: also need a spread, and so we've had a bit
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: of a flattening of the curve which makes it sometimes
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: more more difficult for a lot of financials to be
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: able to earn money. So I think there there is
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: some continuing to pick up in economic activity and demand
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: for loans, which is certainly supportive, but they're probably not
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: going to have that really steep curve to be able
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: to ride. Karen, I'm gonna beat my colleague Matt to
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: the question here crypto. We've got bitcoin all time higher
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: over six per coin. How do you guys think about
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: the crypto space? So, you know, as a practitioner who's
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: focused on building portfolios for clients, it's very hard to
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: look at crypto and find a strong investment case, only
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: because you know, we don't have near the history, we
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: don't have the statistics, we don't have the sort of
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: infrastructure around crypto that we do with more traditional asset classes. Now,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that it won't go up and that
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: it won't you be very a meaningful change and how
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: the monetary system works. Um. So you know, I'm just
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: viewing it very much as a speculative bet, and I
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: caution clients all the time to make sure that if
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: you want to be part of that story, make sure
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: it's a very small part of your overall allocation and
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: you're not bet in the farm on it. I mean
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I've been I've been attracted to bitcoin in the community
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: for over a decade now, but even to me, it's
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: nuts to see this this process. It is heartburn inducing. Yes,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: it definitely keeps me awake at night. Um not owning
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: more of it. I want to just quickly ask about infrastructure.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: We're getting closer and closer to a bill. How close
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: our markets paying really close attention to what's going on
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: in Washington or do they not expect much progress? I
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: think the infrastructure bill is going to be a bit
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: of a whiff, at least when it comes to the market.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: It's not that it's not important for you know, those
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: areas where they're making the investment. But what we've seen
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: in the past when this has kind of come to
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: a head, the market has really looked through it. And
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: it's really because even though the numbers associated with the
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: infrastructure bill seem enormous and nominal terms, when you look
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: at it overall in terms of its relationship to like
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: g d P or anything like that, it's still fairly small.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Now it can have an impact on some individual companies
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: who might be able to, you know, have plays associate
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: with that type of spending for the market overall, though,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a big driver. Karen,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: you taking the time and sharing your thoughts today. Kara Murphy,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: chief investment officer for or Kestra Investment Management. Now I
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: want to get over to r J. Gallois. Paul said
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: he's joining US senior portfolio manager, head of the Municipal
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Bond Group at Federated Hermes. They have um about six
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty six billion dollars of assets under management,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: so no big deal. R J UM I was. I
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: had lunch today with a big infrastructure guy normally in
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the US, and you told me it's going to be
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: decided this week. What we get from Congress. What are
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: your expectations. Well, we're hopeful that despite the razor thin
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: margins that the Democrats possess and in the House and
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: certainly in the Senate, that that they can come up
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: with something to have about bipartisan agreement that's waiting to
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: be signed. Uh. And and now sort of a bargaining
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: chip for the Old Back Better Agenda, you know, which
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: is overwhelmingly social spending oriented. Uh. It was discouraging to
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: see how complicated it got within the Democratic Party. But
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: all the coverage that you're seeing now is is signed
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: promptimism that we'll get infrastructure spending and we'll get some
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: fiscal spending as well. It won't be anything like the
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Cares actor or the American Rescue Plan. It's not COVID oriented.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: It's longer term, so they boon to the economy from
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: that will be spread out over ten years. But nevertheless
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: supportive of growth, obviously concerned about taxes, are going to
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: raise taxes, um. The question is how much on corporate
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: corporations and individuals. So we'll see. Certainly meetings have reflected
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: some expectation of tax increases for a while, and I
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: think we're going to get some. The question is the degree,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: So you know our j Should I be surprised at
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: all when I look at the tenure? Yes, it's up
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit from where we had been worked at
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: one point six. But boy, with all the talk of
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: tapering and you know, starting presumably next month, and then
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: interest rates rising beginning mid next year, should I be
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: surprised that rates aren't even higher? Well, we've been cautiously
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: short duration in our taxable and tax exempt fixed income
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: UM all year. And if you step back and look
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: on the calendar year the ten your treasury is up
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: about seventy two basis points. We have that period you
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: call it the summer months generally where the delta variants
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: uh really took the narrative away from the idea of
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: economic recovery. Um, it seems like we're turning the page
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: on the delta variant cautiously, certainly in some of them
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: more heavily afflicted regions of the country, UM, in the South,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: for example. Uh. So the hope is that that that's
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: narrative of economic recovery. COVID has evolved, but it's nowhere
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: near the affliction that it once was from an economic
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: standpoint or a public health standpoint. UM. And that the
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: FED can began a very slow says towards normalizing, starting
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: first with tapering. That's still there, UM. And I think
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: the bond market UM took a bit of a divergence
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: there for a while, and now we're back on that
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: same agenda. In my mind, if you see the tenure
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Treasury finished this calendar year around one seventy, that's where
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: we've been for many months. UM. If you talk to
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: me back in March, I think we said we'll probably
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: end up around two. Along the way, we took another
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: route when sharply lower at one twelve at one point
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: intra day back in August, I think it was. But
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the challenges of them are not the challenges now in
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: terms of uh, you know, the longer term fed UM
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: moves and things like the terminal rate, what are your
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: what are your forecasts? You took the words out of
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: my mouth. I was gonna say, we probably should be
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: talking about what level of nominal interest rates can the
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the Fed actually reach. UM. That's a huge it across
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: that you occurve obviously, UM, if you imagine term premiums
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: over time might eventually revert back to fairly low levels,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: low positive levels, which is more normal when central banks
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: aren't expanding their balance sheets. That terminal FED funds rate
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: then holds huge sway over setting bond prices as we
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: look out in the medium term, certainly in the long term,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: and the FED still has it a two and a half.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I think that the inflation dynamic UM has been has
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: been troublesome, certainly according to the Fed's view. UM, we
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: felt that the FED was too optimistic on the transitory approach,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: that in fact inflation was was boiling and was going
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: to be more challenging. So at this point I wouldn't
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: be surprised if the Fed gets forced into tightening a
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: little bit more than is in the market right now.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: The question is does that just short of shift forward
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: monetary restraint in to say three or two UM, and
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: in doing so, your terminal rate doesn't change. Really that
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the FED probably has it roughly right. You know, they
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: have a lot of economists working on this, But I
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: would think that the terminal rate is going to be
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: somewhere in the low two handles, probably a little south
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: of where the FED really is. UM. I don't believe
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: the world fundamentally is going to grow stronger because of
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: everything that's gone on in the last two years. UM.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: We still have an aging workforce, especially in the developed countries.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Technologies a boon and productivity could be helpful. That could
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: push terminal rates up a little bit, But I don't
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: think it's migrated sharply one way or the other because
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: of COVID or any of the changes that this challenge
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: has presented to us. Hey, r J, thank you so
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: much for joining us. We always appreciate getting your perspective.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: R J. Gallo, Senior Portfolio Managery is also ahead of
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: the indmissible bond group that federated Hermes based in steel Town, US,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: A Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania boy. When you go out there as
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: a sell side, animals that is the number one meaning
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: to get They've got sixty billion dollars in assets under management.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Looking at the shares of Tesla, that's how you pronounce it, Matt, Tesla.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: That's how Ela Musk pronounces it. UM. Looking at the stock,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: it's kind of flat today, up about twenty two year
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: today it's a little bit better than the SMP got
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: a market cap of eight hundred and sixties six billion dollars.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: The report numbers air for the clothes Today, let's get
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: a preview with Day Equity Markets reporter for Bloomberg News
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: joining us on the phone. Esha, you know what are
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: you looking at here? Is it's still units and unit profitability?
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: What are you gonna be looking for? Him? Thanks for
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: having me? Yeah, some. I think the top things to
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: look out for Tesla ownings today is margins, how profitable
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: they were selling cars? Any update and how can what
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: kind of capacity they are expecting to have on their
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: um Austin and Berlin plants that are still being um
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: you know, being developed, anything any kind of detail they
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: can tell us about the supply chain troubles that the
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: entire automotive industry facing and essentially how Tesla is being
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: able to navigate those troubles so much better than the
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: traditional car makers of the world, like the g MS
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: and at the four Is that um you only I
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: mean there must be something else that plays into the
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: stock price. I'm looking at my comp screen right now.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I love to run the comp function um, just because
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: it gives me a steady five year period to look
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: at everything. Put Tesla up against Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Facebook.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, Tesla destroys all of those other companies in
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: terms of its five year price growth. Why what what
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: is it? That's a great question. It's a really dollar question,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: isn't it. Um. So what investors are really betting on
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Testra here is that this you know, this automotive industry
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: that is going undergoing a transformation at this point, and
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: which is like a really at the nacent stage of
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: you know, all gus driven cars will eventually be being replaced, right,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: electric cards, and people betting on those crazy valuations are
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: really hoping that Tesla will be at the forefront of
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: that huge market, right, and that they think actually justifies
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: these valuations more than you know, you know, we have
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: seen a really bullish different vestor Kathy would of course
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: see that, you know, three thousand dollars for share for Tesla.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: It's just for basics, it can actually become more than that.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: So you know, that is essentially what we're looking at here.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Tesla kind of really leading and trillblazing of course this
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: transformation and also becoming the market leader in the future
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: in electric cards. What is the company saying these days
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: and what are you're hearing from the marketplace about the
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: competitive landscape Because obviously they were essentially a monopoly in
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: this EV business, but now we've seen both the big
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: automakers VW, GM, Ford and all the others really make
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: some big, big commitments to their EV future. How do
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: people think about the competitive landscape? Uh, yeah, that's a
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: great question. So, um, you know, we will really see
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: the competitive cars kind of rollout and hit the market
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: starting next year. That's when they're the big daves will
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: actually start, um you know, as as anything, as with
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: anything in Tessler, this this is also a like a
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: battleground for bulls and there they're to kind of du
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: get out. Some say that Tesla is going to lose
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: its edge as you know, especially as like more um
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: affordably priced evies hit the market, because Tusla has promised
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: us a twenty five dollar evy, but we haven't seen
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: that yet. We haven't heard a lot about those plants
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and where that is at this point. So as more
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: affordable evies come out and more, um you know, we
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: see the charging station networks becoming more eubiquatives almost as
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: like gas stations. That's when the adoption will pick up,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: and Tesla will definitely see some of its market share
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: eroding there itself. Of course, hasn't spoken a lot about
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: the competitive landscape. We haven't set much much headed to
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: being made by any of the startups yet in that
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: in that sense that's list has a headway. But you know,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: we will really see what the tradition as the legacy
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: that the auto giants actually can't do with this satting
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: next year. Alright, thanks so much for joining us. It's
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: something that obviously we're all going to be following very closely.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Is gonna be on this call, mat because the Adam
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Jonas note that he could be the next or the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: first trillionaire, I thought, I laughed at first, thinking it
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: was ridiculous, but um, he's actually not that far off already, right,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: he's already got a quarter of a trillion dollars. And
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: Jonas point was that um SpaceX could drive him too
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: levels that no one has ever reached before. Escha Day
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: is an equity market reporter for us here at Bloomberg News,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: joining us to preview the Tesla earnings which come out
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: today after the bell um the stock really has been
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the best performer of the past five years of any
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: of the major tech companies. Thanks for listening to the
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
• 23:24
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• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three, pet
• 23:33
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• 23:35
  Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.