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Transcript

Felix Prehn - The $86 Billion BUY Warning! + Stock Market News 20 August 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Friends, we've got good news.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Not only have we got electrolytes I promise that's what this is we've got a market setup that is so sweet it is sweeter than these sugar-free electrolytes and I want to walk you through it so you know what the heck's about to happen.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: And I think we now have five reasons as to why the market is moving in the direction we think it's moving into.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: And, of course, we'll also talk about Tesla Big story going on there in Europe and what the Fed's doing and everything else.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I smell the money.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I like the smell of money.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: In the morning, says John.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Yes, me too.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Me too.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Absolutely Wonderful, isn't it?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Lost in BKK.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: You're interviewing with a hedge fund today.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Fancy good luck to you.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Um, let us know how that goes.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you and let me show you this chart here, and this squiggly little chart from, I believe, goldman sachs is the most important thing that nobody knows about and nobody understands, except for our new hedge fund friend here.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Lost in BKK.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: And what do you see?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Let me explain this and then I'll break it down for you, because this is really important.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: This is like the most important thing out there at the moment.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Where are we right now?
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: We're here, and where is here?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Here is, if you draw a little line across is at the not a straight line, but you get the idea.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: It's at the zero mark.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Now what does it mean when global CTA positioning is at zero?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: It means that the algo funds so the computer-driven funds that buy on certain rules are at the moment with zero exposure.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: They've sold everything.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: They've sold everything they have.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: They're sitting purely on cash, and you might think that must be a bad thing.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: The market's about to crash, not sit fast.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: The Goldman Sachs prediction is that they're going to buy bigly, as certain presidential candidates might say.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: It's that little red arrow there.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: And let me just show you what they're predicting.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: They're predicting that over the next one week, if the market stays flat just nothing happening, completely boring, nothing exciting happening whatsoever we're going to get 85 billion of share buys from these algo funds and if the market goes up, 89 billion.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Pretty much the same thing.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: If the market goes down, they're still buying 54 billion.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: So they're buyers in all scenarios.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: No matter what happens, no matter what Jerome Powell says this week, we're going to get massive amount of money pouring into the market and over the next month it gets even more 100 billion, 138 billion.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: So if the market goes up, say we get good or decent Nvidia earnings, you better put that jetpack back on your back, because they're going to be buying.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: If we go down over the month, then they're going to start selling some US equities.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Not this week, they're going to buy.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: No, if we go down over the month, then they're going to start selling some US equities.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Not this week, they're going to buy, no matter what this week, but after next week.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And I talked already about early September and what happens then, and we'll revisit that when we get to early September.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So what are we aiming to do with it?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: We're aiming to take that rocket ship and make some more money, because we are already up.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: How much are we up?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: By 24,000.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: It's probably a little bit more by now, but yeah, call it 80%, because we trade only a $30,000 teaching portfolio here.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: So we're made 80% return so far this year and we aim to get to that a hundred percent mark and then go to sleep for the rest of the year.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Mission accomplished.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So you want to learn how we do that?
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I year.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Mission accomplished, so you want to learn how we do that I'm literally running, in 55 minutes, a free beginner workshop on how we do that.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I don't promise you returns, but I promise to be transparent with you about what we do and how we do it, and you can pummel me with a lot more like technical questions than what we normally gather here on YouTube.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: So head over to phoenixfriendsorg slash workshop and join me Now.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: You might want to take a screenshot of this or at least write this down.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: This is the number that matters 5275 on the S&P.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: What does it mean?
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: What does it mean?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: If you open up an SPX chart, which is, and you look at this 5275 line here, I'm just going to delete that.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Can I delete that Sort of as good as deleted, isn't it?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: That is the pivot point.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: So we would have to drop very, very significantly.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So, basically, what happens is below 5275,.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So 5275, below that, they will eventually start to sell.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: But anywhere above 5275, above 5275, we get buys from the algo funds, which is very, very nice and very supportive.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: So which way do you think the market's heading?
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Well, of course, this isn't the complete answer to everything, but if you take this into account and you factor in the other things that we've been talking about for about a week now, we've got the biggest buybacks in history happening right now this month.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: What else did we have?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: We have low liquidity.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: It's a holiday, so as long as you've got some buyers, the market's more likely to go up than down.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: What was the other things that we're talking about?
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: There were some other items I can't remember for the life of me.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: What did we talk about the other day?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Have I still got it on here somewhere?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: I thought I did.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Apparently, I haven't.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Information has been incinerated, it seems.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Well, anyway, there are a bunch of other reasons that I can't think of right now.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, of course, pension funds.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: That was it.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Pension funds are rebalancing, so pensions should buy about another $40 billion in stocks because they have to sell bonds, because bonds have gone up so much that they have to buy stocks.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: So add to that now the algos are buying, and you know algos buying, which was sort of the dream scenario for us, and that seems to be now likely confirmed.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, papa Powell would have to say something truly outrageous this week to turn this market around If he just comes in and says we're never cutting rates again.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: In fact we're raising them by 5%, and that would do the trick.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Seems fairly unlikely.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: So it's good, isn't it?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Anyone else happy, everyone happy.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Put a number one in the chat if you're happy, put in three if you're unhappy.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: See how many people are happy this morning.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty good.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: And then there is a little story here, and remember, I've been ranting and raving for about a year and a bit, not just generally, although maybe also just generally, but about how the US government manipulates jobs, data and how it's a complete made up gobbledygook.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Well, okay, we've got some happy people here Mal's happy, scott's happy, david's asking what happened, and quite a lot of happy people.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Lisa, leonard, brad Ray, ryan there's so many happy people.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, hugo is a nine.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Malik666.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, uno says Manny Garcia, and Jean-Francois writes minus 51.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Well, you are French, you're not meant.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Where do you get these key pivot levels from?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I mugged a trader at Goldman Sachs today, so I'm leaving his office.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I tackled him, dragged him to the alley and stole his bag.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: No, somebody sent it to me.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So this here is the other story that's now actually.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: This is starting to become semi-mainstream news, and it is something that Jerome LePowell is going to have to deal with today.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: And what does it mean?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: It means the government made up a million jobs.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: They told us they'd created an extra million jobs, and they didn't.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: They were never there.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: They made them up, okay, just completely fabricated.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: They were hoping nobody would notice and that would help them get reelected.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: So why are they?
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Why are they putting that out now?
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Good question, maybe it's some blame it on Biden, house clearing or something.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: So the, the, the, the, the.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Whoever comes in next can say it wasn't me.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's it.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So what happens when you basically lose 1 million jobs?
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Well, if you think this through, how the Fed views their purview, as they call it, what is the Fed's purview?
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: The Fed's purview is stable prices, which they're very good at, and it is high employment or full employment or some sort of variation of that theme.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: They kind of work against each other, right?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: When high employment suddenly tanks by 1 million jobs, what happens?
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Well, suddenly, suddenly, the economy is a lot slower than you thought and that means prices are likely to drop more.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Inflation fears are moving further away because the economy is slowing down.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: When the economy slows down.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: What can you do?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Well, what do you do?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: You lower rates, because if you lower rates, you get more employment, generally speaking.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: So this million jobs fabricated and finally admitted by the number cruncher Muppets in Washington is actually very good news.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: It's very good news.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: It makes it a completely clear shot case that the Fed is going to lower rates this year.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: They have no choice, they just have to.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Albino, I appreciate that invitation to Nashville.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I'd love to go.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: We've got some happy gold retrievers here as well.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: See, everyone's happy, everyone's happy, brilliant.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: So lots of news, right?
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: So basically, if you can add to that list here of why we're happy, biggest buybacks ever.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Low liquidity, which means if we're buying, there are very few sellers.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: It looks pretty good.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Pension funds are buying 40 billion, algos are buying about 80 billion this week, and then we have well more unemployment really, which is a strange thing to add to a list as a positive.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: But from this point of view market trader kind of point of view it makes sense.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: But from this point of view market trader kind of point of view, it makes sense.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: And then you got this and let's have a look at how Tesla stocks reacting to that this morning.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: See if the market's awake.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Yet Pre-market Tesla is up a percentage point.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Why would Tesla be up a percentage point when the EU is putting a 9% tariff on Tesla cars?
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Because we thought it would be worse.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Byd, that Chinese competitor, is paying, if I'm not mistaken, a 17% tariff, something like that.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: So why did Tesla get that reduction?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Because they're manufacturing more of those cars in Europe I think a greater percentage of them but the Tesla cars sold in Europe are basically Chinese cars still, I've just always been very clear about that.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: But with that German factory and so on, I guess they made some sort of pledge to maybe use more European components or something.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: So that's a good deal, I think, for Tesla.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: They come out quite well there.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: But tariffs, right.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So they put a 9% tariffs on Tesla cars.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: What do you think the next US president's going to do?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Going to put a higher tariff on European cars?
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe, maybe, maybe.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: People are out of jobs.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Yay, I know, it's messed up, it is really messed up.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Gigafactory in Germany yeah, I know, but still a lot of the it's.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Gigafactory in Germany yeah, I know, but still a lot of the it's probably more of an assembly line.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: I would imagine a lot of the components will be made in China, much as it is in the US, obviously.