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Diplomacy on paper, disruption in the water: Iran refloats a seven-day Hormuz offer as tanker attacks, an Egyptian troop debate and a St Petersburg terminal strike keep the risk premium stacked
Araghchi's Baghdad reaffirmation is a lead to work, not an agreement: Washington has already sent comments Tehran says it is still reviewing, and the same terms were earlier rejected by President Trump. Brent's $109.86 is Friday's settlement, not a Sunday quote, and no oil futures traded in the normal Sunday session. Below, the macro chokepoint-and-product chain is kept separate from the signature West Africa/feedstock analysis, which turns on Nigerian collection and certification capacity rather than on crude prices.
The skinny
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