Latest / The Bear Market Podcast with Fexingo: Surviving Downturns, Buying the Dip, and Long-Term Resilience / Jamie Dimon Says Dont Buy Stocks What His Track Record Tells Us
Transcript
- Lucas: Jamie Dimon said yesterday he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices. That's the headline. But Dimon has made big market calls before, and his track record is worth looking at — not as a trading signal, but as a window into how one of the most influential bankers in the world is reading this moment. Luna: It's interesting timing. The VIX is at 18.65, up 13 percent in five days. The VVIX — volatility of volatility — is at 102.82, near levels we talked about a few episodes ago as signalling a regime shift. So Dimon is basically saying the market isn't pricing risk correctly. Lucas: Exactly. And I think the nuance people miss is that Dimon isn't saying 'sell everything now.' He's saying the risk-reward is unattractive at these levels. He specifically mentioned geopolitical risk and inflation persistence. That's a different message from 'the world is ending.' Luna: Right. Let's look at his past calls. In 2015, Dimon warned about market froth and said volatility would return. He was early — markets rallied for another year before the 2016 correction. Then in 2020, he said there was a 'hurricane' coming in the economy. That one was prescient. Lucas: He's been consistently more bearish than the consensus for a few years now. But the thing is, Dimon runs a bank with a massive balance sheet. His public comments are partly about managing expectations and partly about managing risk. He's not a hedge fund manager making a directional bet. Luna: So when he says he wouldn't buy stocks, is that a contrarian indicator? If everyone already knows he's bearish, maybe it's already priced in. Lucas: That's a fair question. But look at the macro data we have. The 10-year yield is at 4.55 percent, the 2-year at 4.18 — the spread is steepening, now at 39 basis points. That's usually a sign that the bond market is pricing in stronger growth or higher term premiums. Yet real GDP growth is only 2.1 percent annualised. That's not exactly booming. Luna: And the VVIX at 102.82 is telling us that options markets are pricing a higher probability of tail events. That's not a prediction, but it's a risk measure. Dimon might be reacting to that same signal. Lucas: So here's where I land: Dimon's track record is mixed enough that you shouldn't hang your portfolio on his word. But his framework — looking at risk premiums, geopolitical uncertainty, and yield curve signals — is exactly the kind of thinking that helps you avoid big mistakes. Luna: And if we're having conversations like this, thinking about risk in a more structured way, that's probably more valuable than trying to time the next crash. Lucas: That's a good segue. Because if this kind of analysis is useful to you — thinking through how to interpret a CEO's market call, not just react to it — then that's the sort of conversation we try to have here every episode. Luna: And the way we keep this ad-free and grounded is listener support. If you've gotten something from the show, you can help keep it going. Lucas: Yeah, buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. That's it. No perks, no tiers — just a simple way to say this is worth your time. And we really appreciate it. Luna: Absolutely. So back to Dimon — one more thing I want to look at. He also said he wouldn't buy Treasurys. That's interesting because the 30-year yield is at 5.06 percent. Historically, that's been an attractive entry point. Lucas: Right. But Dimon might be worried about fiscal sustainability or inflation reaccelerating. The 10-year yield has been volatile — it was at 4.57 a few days ago, now 4.55. He's not seeing enough compensation for the risk. Luna: So the bottom line: Dimon is a data point, not a strategy. Use his comments to check your own assumptions, not to make a trade. Lucas: And that's probably the best takeaway. Markets are not cheap, risk is not zero, and having a plan for resilience matters more than predicting the next move. Luna: On that, I think we can agree.