Latest / Financial Survival Network / Fed's Options Limited Amid Inflation Concerns with Eddy Gifford #6012

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Fed's Options Limited Amid Inflation Concerns with Eddy Gifford #6012 · Financial Survival Network

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  If we cut and we do it too early, that can spur more inflation,
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  which is going to drive prices back up. If we raise, that's
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  going to obliterate markets. Because we saw what happened in twenty twenty two,
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  and so it's like one of those things that they were smart. I think
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  they just all retire. Right now, you're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
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  Network, where you get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else to
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  thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more than
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  ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift.
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  Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome you are listening to
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  watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well,
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  they were in the last day of February. Just got some important numbers out
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  from the Fed, the PCEE personal consumption expenditures and let's talk with our good
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  friend Eddie Gifford find out what that number is telling us. Now, Eddie,
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  welcome back. Thank you for having me getting Carrie. Yeah, I
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  mean we kind of had a foreshadowing because last month CPI and PPI were harder
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  than expected, so everyone revised the print for this and so everything ended up
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  coming in in alignment today. The issue that we have with that is when
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  you look at core PCE, it's at point four percent. Now, if
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  we were to annualize or extrapolate that out, then that would mean four point
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  eight percent over the course of a year. And keep in mind the defense
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  target is two percent. So what it's telling us right now, you know,
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  and we don't know, is this a blip? Is CPI PPI prit
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  and the pc pray is that a blip? Or is inflation starting to come
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  back? And you know, the interesting thing is that personal incomes went up,
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  but spending went down. So I think that even the concealer is kind
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  of like uncertain right now. And I do not envy the FED right now,
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  Carrie, do not envy them at all. Yeah, Well, they're
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  kind of a ton between a rock and a hard place. What do you
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  think they're going to do? They're already kind of pulling back on the interest
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  rate cuts and there seems to be suffering the result of it. Right Yeah,
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  I think that what they're going to try to do for as long as
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  possible is absolutely nothing. They're in this little like got the box, like,
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  well, you know, we already know how things are doing at the
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  current rates. If we cut and we do it too early, that can
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  spur more inflation, which is going to drive prices back up. If we
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  raise, that's going to obliterate markets because we saw what happened in twenty twenty
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  two, and so it's like one of those things that they were smart.
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  I think they just all retire right now. Hey, they did a pretty
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  good job of getting getting where we're at. But definitely the market as usual,
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  well, the market doesn't like uncertainty, and so at least if they
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  do nothing, then you know they're they're not like making the market uncertain and
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  read it in either direction. But it does put us in a scenario where
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  we probably see some sideways action for a while until we kind of know what's
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  happening. I think that the AI run up is kind of like shitting exhaustion
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  right now. So you know, there's probably another sectors that may take the
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  lead there, we just don't know which ones yet. Uh. And you
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  know we're heading the march, and historically things tend to break in march,
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  so there's that. So there's definitely a lot of stuff to be worried of
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  the fact that the backstop FED put in place last March is expiring this March,
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  so that'll be interesting to see if that affects the regional banks and the
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  baking sector in general. Right. So, I mean it seems like,
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  you know, we're just getting like half the story here. You know that
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  they're just telling us one thing, but we're really they're really not being honest
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  with the American public, are they. Well, I mean, you just
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  look at the way that CPI is calculating. It's calculated differently than it was
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  the last time that we sought the saw these types of bouts of inflation that
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  the numbers would be much higher. They still calculated it the way they did
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  in the seventies. So you know, right there, I think that the
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  American public understands that, you know, things aren't only four percent more expensive.
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  You know, there are a lot more expensive than that. And the
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  other thing they keep telling us is that inflation is coming down. That's a
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  lie. Inflation is slowing. You know, it stacks on top of each
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  other. So yeah, maybe it's slowing, maybe it's only four percent over
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  the last twelve months, but we got to stack that on top of like
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  ten and twenty and then we got compound interest, and so people are paying
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  thirty to forty percent more than they were three years ago. We're the same
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  stuff, and I think that's starting to hit the pocketbook. I think that
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  we're hitting the credit limits for a lot of people. You know, Unfortunately,
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  we don't have an unlimited amount of credit like the United States government does.
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  And you know, the thing that scares me about all this is this
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  whole like find out hey later thing. Yeah, every time that there's like
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  a purchase on your credit card, like two thousand dollars or more, you
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  get this pop up that says, hey, do you want to pay this
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  over the next six months with no interest? And I just think that like
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  all those things will pile up. I don't know like when it's going to
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  crack, but we are in a situation where the fat is sitting here wondering
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  what to do, and on one side of the fence, inflation comes back
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  and they have to start raising. On the other side of the flats,
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  something breaks, and that's why we see rapid rate cuts. Both of those
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  scenarios are no good for markets. And you know, but at the same
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  time, you can't just run away from the markets. We've had had this
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  like historic bull run that we haven't seen a long time since like two thousands,
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  So it's very very biblesque. But bubbles can grow for and inflate for
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  a long time, and so you know, it's okay to kind of ride
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  the waves of the speak, but you it's got to make sure you got
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  some exits in there to protect yourselves because when this thing turns, it's always
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  one of those things where it's slow and then all of us suddy and it
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  accelerates very rapidly to the downside because of the lack of liquidity. So try
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  with cautious and just make sure that you're staying nimble. All right, So,
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  speaking of bubbles, what are you thinking about cryptocurrencies now? On Bitcoin?
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  Well, you know, I wasn't a believer at first in bitcoin.
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  I don't know if if I'm a believer in holding it yet, but I
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  think that if it's not potentially part of your portfolio, you're making a mistake
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  from the standpoint that it's very tradable and the moves are are you know,
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  typically rapid and violate, and so as I was saying, earlier. If
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  we're if we have profit targets and we have stops, you can make a
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  lot of money and you don't have to be on the whole ruler was to
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  ride of the big one hundred percent up and then the eighty percent down and
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  then and then playing that game. So I think that advisors that it would
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  be smart for them to start including this in portfolio. I think that that,
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  you know, investors, I think that having some of it in the
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  portfolio can serve as a good diversia fire. But I don't think we're at
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  a point where we own it. Get I think that we're still at a
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  point where we trade it. Of course, there are you know, it's
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  been opened up to a lot more investors because of the recent uh SPOT ETF
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  approvals. Sure, and everyone keeps talking about the bitcoin having that's happening in
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  the next couple of months, and and that's uh generally speaking, ben a
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  catalyst for bull markets in bitcoin. So there there there is some merit there
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  to at least like trading it within a portfolio or you know, wrap it
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  in, wrapid out pet stuff. But if you're going to own it,
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  I mean it's it's more volatile than anything you've ever held, So it'll be
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  a an emotional you may become an emotional basket case if you're not used to
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  that type of stuff. Well, it looks clear to me right now.
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  It's getting It hit close to sixty three thousand today as we speaking on February
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  twenty ninth, and now it's pulled back a little, just under sixty two.
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  It's obviously going to go into record territory here. I think there's no
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  question about it, is there. I think there's rusty behind it. I
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  think that you know, obviously, like the print is behind us, and
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  we don't really have anything else until mid March. From an inflationary standpoint,
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  especially if the next inflation prey ends up being like less than expected, you
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  know, that's obviously good for technology. But we've seen bitcoin react very favorably
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  to decreasing rates and so that and having and more people getting into it with
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  the spat ETFs, it would surprise me if it doesn't hit new highs.
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  But we have been on this almost vertical trajectory and that's scared all bet Yeah,
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  it surely is in parabolic. It's called parabog for a reason because it
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  goes up really fast and then it goes down the problem exactly, yes,
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  and that problem can be a big problem for your portfolio, if you're on
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  the wrong end of the problem, right, it's correct, all right,
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  So precious metals their whole at least, gold is holding pretty steady in that
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  two thousand plus range. Yeah, I think gold is the main thing to
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  watch here. You know, everybody is everybody's talking about bitcoin and you know,
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  store of value and all this that I in my opinion, that's garbage.
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  The the bitcoin is not a store of value. It is an investment
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  and up and down, and that's how you know there there isn't actually something
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  behind it. You know, it's still a technology. Now it is a
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  medium for exchange. So I mean that that can be very beneficial to a
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  lot of people, especially outside the United States that maybe don't have I made
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  even exchange. But it comes down to it, you watch gold. If
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  gold continues to creep up, and we see gold breakthrough and go to that
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  twenty two twenty three one hundred level, then we probably see something break in
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  the economy. And you know, gold generally speaking is a leading indicator,
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  and so when we start to see that thing rise, especially when we're in
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  an elevated INTERESTCT environment where it doesn't look like they're cutting anytime soon. That
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  means the rise is not really the illustrate. It's the rise is related to
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  fear. And if that's the case, then it's definitely important to start paying
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  a little bit closer attention to your portfolio. Yeah, no question about it
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  there, or sure and all right, So what's an investor supposed to do?
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  Do you just pull out of the market now and take your marvels and
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  go home or what are you supposed to do here? Well, if you've
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  been if you were smart enough to be in since like last January, and
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  you you rose and you wrote in video all the way up like you know,
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  a couple of doubles, then yeah, there's no problem in taking your
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  money and setting aside and airing you know, some some interest because we're still
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  getting over five percent on treasuries right now, on short term treasuries. But
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  in general, I think that you just have to have balance. Yeah,
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  you know, you have to have a portfolio that ends and flows. You
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  have to have stuff in there that believe your portfolio. If if you're wrong,
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  right, but I don't feel like you can run away from this thing.
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  Yet I feel like you need to continue to stay invested, but you
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  need to make sure that you've got stops and targets and lace. You need
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  to make sure that you have some type of insulator and that we're porfolio to
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  protect you. And you know, the easy answer, generally speaking, would
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  be something like treasuries. Well that's only if something breaks. If the reason
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  something breaks is because the interest rates go higher, that's going to make clout
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  or just like it did in twenty twenty two, and then you've got to
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  start looking into some market control or managed future type stuff. So it's just
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  got to have a portfolio that looks a little bit different than the portfolios looked
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  over the last twenty years for sure. Okay, all right, Eddie,
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  tell us where do we find you on the web these days? Easiest way
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  he just jump on and google me Eddie Gifford. That's Eddie with a Y
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  at Gifford at g I F F O R D of course at Eddie Gifford
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  or Attactive Wealth Match slash Eddie Dash Gifford. That's where you can kind of
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  get to know me and how I do things and all of that good stuff.
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  But we're here for you. We know that it's a scary time.
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  We know that there's a lot of stuff out there that can go wrong,
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  and because of that, you know, we're willing to be here and answer
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  questions, even that's even if that means you don't become a client. We
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  just want to be a resource self, all right. Hey, well,
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  we always appreciate you coming on. You got a question for Eddie or myself.
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  The email address is k l at Kerrie LUTs dot com. The link
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  to Eddie's site is in the show notes of this interview on Financial Survival Network
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  dot com. While you're there, sign up for your free newsletter Eddie.
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  Always a pleasure. Thanks for stopping by. We'll talk to you again soon.
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  Awesome. I appreciate it. Thank you, thanks for listening to Carrie
• 13:11
  Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
• 13:16
  go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,