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The Favorites - NFL Week 17 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday Week seventeen episode. We'll break down the entire
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: slate of NFL games. We will also discuss our exec
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: decision our Simon says start to narrow down the options
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: for our faves by faves to put into the Favorites
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football fickhom contest. We
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: went three and two this past week. We are live
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre My BFF
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Professional Better, Simon Hunter Ello. Soyman, Mary, Mary, Chad.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: How are we doing, brother?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: It's a weird days the day before Christmas. We're doing
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the show early. Obviously it's Christmas Eve, so people aren't
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: going to be around potentially in the afternoon. I feel
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: like my whole day is working at like an hour
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: later then it really should. Right now, I'm feeling like
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: we're working but we're not. But I'm doing everything I
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: do on a workday. You know that feeling.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: A little bit, but not really just because of what
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: my job is.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Like, I've been working since Sunday night to get all
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: this done for listen today, so it's like it's another
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: day of work. But as soon as we get done here,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: I'm kind of looking forward to like Christmas a little bit.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: So I'm still not full in Christmas, even getting your present.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: I forgot to get you a present because I'm so
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: locked in Chad, But yeah, I I honestly, it's it's
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: just another week of work. The weirdest part is just
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: what we're about to talk about, these these Wednesday games,
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: truly is throwing me off, like I can't believe tomorrow.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's, it's it's And my wife already bought
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: tickets for a movie, and I kind of forgot about
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the Christmas and now I'm going, she's going, my kid
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: is going. I've got myself wrapped in a pretzel of
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: conflicting emotions right now. So we had the Cowboys on
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Sunday night to go three and two. Matt Mitchell slacked
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: something brilliant in response, which was it felt like the
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: first normal I put that in quotes home Underdog game
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in one hundred years like, I agree. It felt like
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: a game that we used to bet automatically last year
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: that we would win automatically. Last year, it never felt
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: like we weren't going to cover. And that was even
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: though like they were without Dak Prescott, without Zach Martin,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: without DeMarcus Laws, without Trayvon Diggs, without Eric Kendricks. I
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: wasn't doing Gambler's math until like the middle of the
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and I was trying to think, Okay, are
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: they going to score fourteen points cover this four and
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: a half point spread? Like my confidence should have been
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: completely unwarranted because they were outgained. They had ten fearer
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: first downs, But sometimes simon, the spot and the number
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: matter more than the players on the field, isn't that right?
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
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  Speaker 3: And it was also a game where it felt like
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: the Cowboys were just playing really hard, Like there's sometimes
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: you make bets on teams and you can just tell
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: some guys aren't going one hundred percent. That game like
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: legitimately felt like a team that was playing angry and
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: had something to prove to people on that primetime game,
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: like they're.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Hitting hard offensively.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, I like you just said I know that
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: Baker and the Bucks outgained their offense, but the Cowboys
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: offense played much better than the Bucks offense.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, Cooper Rush had a great game.
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: But yeah, that that was classic thing of that number
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: was never really in doubt, especially towards the end there
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: where just like even if it even was at nine,
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: it was like, okay, even if they scored two touchdowns, here,
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: me and chat are still okay, we'll still cover this number,
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: hopefully because there'll be some wacky field goal in there.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: But then you know it, dig it a little tight
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: there at the end where we just we've had it
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: before where the team gets a fluke touchdown at the
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: very end and we don't cover them, or but uh yeah,
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  Speaker 3: on a week that was once again all about the favorites,
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: our three wins came on three dogs.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Amazing, So favorites have gone I want to update this
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: because it's been such a strange year. Favorites have gone
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy and seventy straight up this year
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent. The most profitable season for straight up
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: favorites since twenty thirteen. It's also the least profitable season
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: for underdogs on the money line since two thousand and five.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: We're talking almost twenty years. Teams getting more than sixty
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: percent of spread bets have gone fifty six percent against
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: the spread this year. That is a rarity. Here's the
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: biggest one. Home Underdogs are just forty three percent against
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the spread, which would be the third least profitable season
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety. Here's the good news. Here's the good news.
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  Speaker 1: There was a little bit of correction in the market.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Favorites only went three and four straight up in week sixteen,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: after seven or zero and week fifteen and fourteen and
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: one between week thirteen and fifteen. Since week five, the
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: favorites win percentage of seventy five percent would be the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: second best win percentage on the money line from week
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: five on since nineteen ninety in the highest in twenty years.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: The win percentage for against the spread also the highest
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: since two thousand and five. So I don't know if
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: we reached the peak of the market. That's kind of
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: what I'm hoping, because on Sunday afternoon and evening, underdogs
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: went four and one. The only favorite that won was
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, who started as underdogs, and three of those
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: teams that covered see Miami and Dallas. We're home underdogs.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So let's hope we've reached the bottom of this favorite
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: driven market. Let's hope this long national nightmare assignment is
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: over seven underdogs at home. This week we're going to
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: run through it. As a reminder. The Favorite podcast is
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six ' five and now new
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply if you are listening to this podcast. This
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: is my be the most important thing we say today.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not even kidding, absolutely crucial. Lean in to your phones,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: your radio dials, whatever it is. If you participate in
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: the Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: be in by one pm on Saturday, not Sunday. Saturday
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: one pm deadline for the Favorites contest picks for all
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: five picks, not Sunday. We're including the Saturday games in
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: the contest this week, but if we do that, you
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: must make your picks by one pm on Saturday. Get
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: those in by Saturday one pm, not Sunday. For week seventeen.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Good luck. I'm trying to be very clear, explicit. Get
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: those picks in Saturday one pm. All right. Wednesday, First
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Christmas game Kansas City at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's a three point
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  Speaker 1: dog at home. For two weeks we have bet the
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Steelers is under dogs classic Tomlin rob Ross spots and loss.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: He can cover with Doc Hodges at quarterback, but not
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: without George Pickens, and we do expect George Pickens to
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: be back. Numbers move from two and a half to
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: three to public move because the public is on the Chiefs,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: but the money is on the Steelers. Simon, you don't
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: necessarily disagree with the pros here.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: My kids want to have a good Christmas.
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: I do what I don't the Pittsburgh number to me,
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: as it moves enough. That's my issue with the number.
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  Speaker 3: Like I think the value is still in the Chiefs.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: And yeah, there's still a bunch of books out there,
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: especially I don't know about up in Connecticut here in
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: Jersey that have actually gone back to two and a
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: half because of what you just said. The professionals are
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: hitting the three when it gets there on Pittsburgh.
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  Speaker 2: And yeah, this this to me is a.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: Game where I wanted to be on Pittsburgh, but the
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: number didn't move enough for me. If this was three
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: and a half, I would honestly be way more tempted
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: to take Pittsburgh just because of that. And what we
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: talk about the time when it's my homes and three
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: or less, you tend to want to back mahomes in
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  Speaker 3: this exact spot in this number.
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  Speaker 2: So the matchup on.
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  Speaker 3: The field, it all feels like it's good for Kansas City,
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  Speaker 3: Like the secondary is just so banged up for Pittsburgh.
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: You know, Joey Porter, I missed this. You know that
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: that's a big deal. We talked last week or I
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: should say yesterday, but the Ravens just as soon as
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: he went out of that game, they kept attacking whoever
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: came in for him. Right that young corner that you know, yeah,
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: played all right, but you could clearly see that he
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: was like a fish out of the water.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: And I know that.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: You know, the coaches can try to work with them
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: on what five days before their next game, but it's
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: like not enough time to really get this guy, you know,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: into this defense, to kind of figure out a game
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: plan to kind of hide him or maybe give him
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: safety help. Whatever they're going to do, I know Andy
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: Reid and patri Mahomes are going to attack that. So yeah,
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: this is a Pittsburgh team that we loved. I think
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: they started the year of five and I was a dog.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Like we talked about, we had been betting them, and
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: they've dropped two straight here and this feel like another
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: just bad spot for this team. And we talked coming
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: to the season that this was going to be an
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: insane run for this Pittsburgh team, Like they had eleven
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: days of just pure hell. You know, any team having
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: to face the Eagles Ravens and the Chiefs let alone
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: eleven and eleven days.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Just being put in a horrible spot by the NFL.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh was.
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: A type of team that this felt like this season
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: coming in, you know, we all had doubts, we all
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: had questions, and it really came down to the quarterback position,
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: and obviously we were wrong on it. Russell Wilson came
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: in and played amazing, But that feels like to me
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: that it's worn out a little bit these last couple
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: of weeks, Like he's been inconsistent. He's been turning the
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: ball over, not something that he was doing when they
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: were on such a great run. So you know, not
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: that he's turned back into a pumpkin Russell Wilson, but
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: it's also like he was not what we saw in
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: that Cincinnati game. If you go back and watch that
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati tape, that looked like Russell Wilson from twenty thirteen
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: to twenty fourteen, just perfect throws, deep downfield, smart read
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: every time. Now he's spending it's a bunch of real
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: defenses and he's been struggling these last couple of weeks,
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: and I think the same is gonna happen here with Spags,
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: you'd have pickens Is back playing at eighty percent.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: I know that's upgrade for them.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: That's that's really helpful, but I don't think it's gonna
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: be a difference maker.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: They need to beat this Chief's team.
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: So if you can get to two and a half,
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: like again, there's plenty of them out there, I'd grab
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: it now on the Sheefs team. I can just see
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: this being three by kickoff.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's such an interesting spot. My Homes twenty
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: six nine and one as a dog or a favorite
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: of three or less. So even if even if you
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: get the three, you're still leaning into the advantage of
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: betting on the Homes. The flip side is that Mike
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Tomlin is just as good as a dog at home
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: in this spot.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: can make what are you guys quit today?
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: To me, that's either like balancing it out and then
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: you're really thinking about who's the better team here, and
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: would you rather bet on Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Would you rather bet on Patrick Mahomes who we started
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: to see Hollywood Brown get incorporated into the office we're
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: seeing in the offense. We're seeing them use Xavier Worthy
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: in different spots in different ways, some of the pressure
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: being taken off him because of Hollywood Brown. Like, I
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: think this team is getting better offensively. What's interesting, we've
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: seen the past two weeks that they covered as favorites
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: of more than three, which they never do, and they've
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: done it in really interesting ways. And they've been scoring
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: more points. Especially that Texans game, I thought they were great.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: So I kind of feel the same way you do.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: You know the Chiefs this if this game has more
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: points than expected, which I think it's going to go
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: over the forty three, it's trend how at forty three
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: and a half. I like the Chief's ability to execute
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: more than I like the Steelers right now.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And we talked about how like again we were
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: just a week early on that Chargers Again, we knew
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: that it was gonna go the other way for the Chiefs.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: They had at one point they hadn't cover in seven
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: or eight straight games, which was the longest of Andy
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: Reid's career as a coach, and it was like the
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: bad luck and the little breaks just aren't going their way.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: Yet they're still winning because there's such a great team
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: with Mahomes and we joked about it. It's like no
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: team in my lifetime, I can tell you I will
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: ever remember it that came off two stage super Bowls,
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: has the one seed as a thirteen to one record
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: or fourteen to one now and so many people just
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: being like, ah, they're not that good though. It's just
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: an insane society we live in right now. So, yeah,
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: the disrespect had gone too far, and you know, the
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: it's not shocking that, like you just said, the professionals
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: are coming out on the Pittsburgh team because of the
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: history and the right. If it's three, I totally got
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: there coming from right, that feels like that's the mark.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: They don't want to let it get past the three
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: of the professionals. But two and a half, I don't
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: know how you can now take the chiefs of that number.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm trying to put this into a pretty package
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: to help myself rationalize it. It feels like at two
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: and a half you're betting on the player, and at
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: three you're betting on the magic and mysticism of the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Steelers coach, you know what I mean. Yeah, there's nothing
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: about the Steelers on the field. That makes you feel
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: like they could win that get they could cover that game.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: It's only about Tomlin putting his team in the position
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: to do it. That's a lot to bank on Mike
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Tomlin when his quarterback isn't as effective as he was
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: earlier in the year. Baltimore at Houston, Houston's a five
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: and a half point dog right now. Massive, massive move
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: overnight on this game. Some weird big moves in the
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: last twenty four hours on all these games are a
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: punch of these games. Baltimore went from four to five
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and a half as a favorite. Seems to be professional money.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Sixty four percent of the tickets on the Texans but
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the money on Baltimore. I got
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of thoughts on this, but what is up
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: with that?
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: And like.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: I've been looking for a reason to bet the Texans
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: and I feel like I just got it in the number.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, especially because it's a short week.
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: We know historical Lamar is not done great on short weeks,
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: especially on the road. And the movement to me, Chad
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: is just protecting against the number, right. It's I think
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: the books realize that they might not attack their in
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: enough of the Tank Dell injury to that Houston offense
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: and how important he's been to CJ.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: And like not not.
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: Only is his best friend, but it's a guy that
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: he looks for in big spots because Nico Collins has
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: become the guy that just gets the doubles, like he's
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: always getting the double teams downfield now, and that clears
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: out a lot of what Tank dels to do. But
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, like I I already liked Houston in
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: this spot. Like again, it was a short week. You
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: want to fail them more in a short week, And
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: I just knew the public was going to come in
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: so heavy on the Ravens after that. I mean, just
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: a dominant win against the Pittsburgh team that he struggled
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: against in his career. You know, on the flip side, Houston,
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: like you just said, they got rolled a little bit
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: against the Chiefs, but you know that's a little bit
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: of the Chief's luck and magic, right the Chiefs, Mahomes
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: got basically strip sacked Houston walked in for a touchdown. Instead,
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: they said it was a forward pass as Arbum was
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: moving forward and they gave Mahomes fifteen yards and Mahomes.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: Just as soon as you gave him that little bit
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: of a lifeline, he drove the field and score a touchdown,
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: just basically put the game away. So this is a
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: Houston team that you know, I get the doubt, like
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: I am having doubt myself because of their injuries chat
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: And that's why it's like, I'm not rushing about this.
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Obviously I like it at five and a half, But
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: why does this not get the six six and a
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: half by kickoff? Like we already know everyone in the
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: world is going to come in, especially if the Chiefs
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: still under two and a half.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: People don't care about want teasers.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: They're going to tease through zero, get the Chiefs up
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: to three and a half half, and then take this
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: Ravens team down to a pick Like that, to me
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: is going to be the Sunday move for most public betters,
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: which I don't think is a bad decision, Like, yeah, Evan,
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: tell us you want to bet these favorites in these
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: kind of type of really short week spots, especially ones
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: that you know all these teams are going through the
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: same thing. Well, you know, three games in eleven days,
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: Like that's that's a big deal. It's tends to favorite
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: the better teams and these matchups, and you know, we
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: can both agree the Ravens are clearly a better team
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: than Houston right now because of health and the injuries
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: that Houston's have had.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: So I'm on Houston with you. I'm in no rush.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: I'll wait for the six.
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: If you didn't listen to our show convinced me, I'll
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: give it out even I should go make a click
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: on the link. But I liked Houston first half too,
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: because it is three and a half.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: C J.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: Straw twelve and three against the spread this season in
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: the first half spread, So that's that's a nice little
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: gift they're given to us, that hook, because most books
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: are still sitting on two and a half and just
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: getting tons of first half money on the Ravens. And
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: to me, they're overlooking that this is a short week,
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: they're on the road, this Ravens team, and how dominant
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: this Houston team has been in the first half.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Wong teasers, you know, for Tracy in Wisconsin, for all
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: you SmartLess fans, it's basically teasing. You take a two
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: team teaser and you tease the number. That six point
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: teaser threw a key number of three or seven. So
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: that's what Simon is talking about with the Wong teaser.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's pass defense has been improving. They move Kyle Hamilton
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: from sort of moving him around, keeping him in the box,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: basically keeping him in the defensive backfield because their backfield
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: has had so many problems, whether it was Eddie Jackson
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: or Marcus Williams or a lot of signings that haven't
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: worked out. I think they're finally figuring that out. The
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: biggest issues not just tanked Dell the Texans, Mason did
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: not practice, Jimmy Ward, who would have replace Jeff Peatrie
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: in the defensive backfield. Now both of them are out,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: their secondary is even thinner. The one thing I keep
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: coming back to Lamar is a favor of three or
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: more forty six percent. So we just had the same
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: thing with the Cowboys, right, A team at home, a favorite,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of injuries, hot team on the other side,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: hot quarterback. We're going to be on the Texans.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: Sur Yeah, it's just all about the number though, right.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: I just feel like we don't need a rush to
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: grab it because while we just not keep going up.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Let's just wait, let's be patient. Seattle of Chicago three
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: and a half Thursday night game, Bears three and a
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: half point dogs on the road. I feel like I
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: got Seattle in the exact right spot last week against Minnesota,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: and I feel like if they were playing anyone else
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: except the Bears and they were three and a half
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: point favorit it's on the road, I would one fade them.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: But the Bears have yet to be able to execute
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: in the first half since Thomas Brown became the head coach.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I think they'll have a couple of good drives in
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: the second half. They're going to give Better's hope. Inevitably,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: they're going to give up a game covering drive to
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: snuff out any dreams. Do you have any thoughts on
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: this game?
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I know you covered Seattle last week, but ninety
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: percent of betters who just wait till last minute, they
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: wait till Sunday to bet, they did not.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I mean that number was to listeners should listen to
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: the show because we were giving an out at three
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: and a half on Tuesday.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: We were I'm just saying in general, like, I know
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: you're count that as a win, but it's it's not.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: For the most part. Right, that was a bat of
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: the books.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: The books thought they had a good a good trap
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: there for Minnesota and Seattle, and they were looking pretty smart.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: Seattle was up four a couple of minutes to go,
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: and once again, like this, the insanity that is Sam
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: Darnold somehow drove the field while getting a shit kicked
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: out of them and threw just an insane pass for
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: that comeback touchdown.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: So I wanted to be on.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: The Bears, you know, short week, the Seattle team traveling.
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: But Chad just said it.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: How does anyone in their right mind back in this
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: Bears team? What are you backing? Like, what do you I.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: Guess you could be like, well, this is a short week,
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: Seattle's traveling. You know, the Bears have played better at home, YadA, YadA, YadA.
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know what they're looking at here, even even
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: breaking down the matchups, like this is a good match
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: up for the Seattle front four against this this this
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: Bears front. Like they got injuries to the offensive.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Lineat Braxton Jones done and like they weren't even playing
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: that well left tackling. Now the only guy who was
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: decent is out. Yeah, that's it.
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: It's and Caleb, I mean, you know, we joked that
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: this season we thought he was in set records. He
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: set the sack record, right, So it's not great for
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: him either where he already has issues hold on to
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: the ball too long, and now he's gonna be down
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: more linemen fit against a D line that can get
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: after it. And you know this is a number where
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: they're trying to suck us in there. They're giving us
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: the hook on a three and a half and they say, come,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: come take this because this is a backdoor opportunity for
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: the Chicago team. But I don't know, this feels like
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: the type of game we've seen it, like these last
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: couple of weeks with the Seattle team that you know
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: they have not a couple weeks all season. They've struggled
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: against good teams, but they really do beat up on
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: bad teams like that is seems like that's their strength
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: this season. So yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go Chalk's
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: side the heavy public. So I'll take Seattle minus three
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: and a half.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Wow, you'd actually take Seattle for me? It would just
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: be a pass.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: I mean you can pass it. I would.
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: I'm just giving out because I'm already betting it, like
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: I already bet them first half as well, Seattle minus
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: two and a half. So I'm just in on this
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: where I know I'm.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: Gonna bet it.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: Brother, it's Thursday night, it's a standalone game. I just
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: I won't be able to help myself. So yeah, I'm
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: just getting out of it now. I'll be on Seattle obviously.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: I'm like Chad though, like my biggest bet by far
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: of these three games as Chiefs minus two and a half,
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: and it's not close, like very very small bets on
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: Houston and Seattle. Just testing the water, putting my toe in.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: I'm all in on the Chiefs. I think that is
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: a really good number. I'm hitting that one hard, So yeah,
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: I get your hesitation with this one. It's doesn't feel great,
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: but it's just all about playing the number.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Contest recap Week sixteen first place winner dry Biz dry
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Biz win five, and Zer got within two of the
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: tie breaker. He's taken home one thousand dollars. As always,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has selected the Producer's Cup Award to the
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Have you about the loads and loser?
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: He's a Louise about. He still keeps on try.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup going to Jackson West fifty four,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: who went on to five and missed the tiebreaker by
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: nearly three hundred yards. Nice job, Jackson West. Email our
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: producer at podcast at actionnetwork dot com to claim the prize. Reminder,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: once again, I don't want to have to say it
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: again and again and again. I want you guys to listen.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: I want you to write it down. I want you
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: to be ready. The cutoff to make your picks this
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: week is Saturday at one pm Eastern, not Sunday. This week,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: the Saturday Games are in the contest. Everybody must submit
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: their picks by one pm on Saturday. At the very
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: top of our leader board, two entries have fifty seven
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: total points. Ten folks have fifty two or more. It'll
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: be an absolute dog bite to the finish line and
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: our forty thousand dollars first place prize. It will be
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: crushing if some of these entries do not submit because
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: they do not keep up with the podcast and are
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: not aware that you have to submit by one pm
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: on Saturday. And guess who's not going to be sympathetic
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: when they get the emails about this. Matt Mitchell You've
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: never met anybody who's less sympathetic when people have been
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: warned about doing something the right way than Matt Mitchell,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: an absolute officious bastard.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: Do you think it would kill you to say good
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: job Matt?
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, this next game, it's I got a
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: niche about it. LA Chargers at New England Patriots. Another
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: big move overnight, this one in the direction of the
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Patriots from five to four. I love the Chargers here.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: This doesn't make any sense to me. I love the
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Chargers at five, I love them even more at four.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Why is this line moving?
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, when it's sticky at lines of the week. I
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: had this model out at six and a half, so
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: I'm with you that. I initially was like, oh, this
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: is a great Chargers spot.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: But what is going on here, Chad?
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: The professionals are taking a stand in start of the
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: sports books because it's all the money right now. All
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: the tickets are on the Chargers, and you just talked
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: about it. It's dropped now. Some books have moved to
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: two points. They've moved it from six all the way
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: down to four. That's crazy and that's key numbers. It's
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: moving through right now.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: So maybe we're missing something we should be on the
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: Patriots chat. That's all I'm thinking here.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: It's like the books are trying to tell us here
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: that this Charter's team that we all perceive is being
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: really good, and we talked about it, like we've had
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: questions about them because of the injuries they've had these
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: last couple of weeks.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: Maybe we're over eight them. What you like, what do
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: you think that like? That's what the books are telling
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: us here.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: That the books to me are saying. They're saying Drake
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: may is a very accurate passer against a secondary and
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: a back seven that may be in trouble and has
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: been decreasingly effective over the past six, seven, eight weeks.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: But I'm looking at this as overvaluing the Patriots because
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: they got out to an early lead and then they
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: scored seven garbage points at the end of the game
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: against a Bills team that played horribly. Justin Herbert to me,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: is going to destroy way this secondary, like he is
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: so accurate if he is not pressured and the chart
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: and the Patriots cannot get pressure. This is a coaching mismatch.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: This is a low number. It makes no sense to me.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: This is going to be my executive decision. No, yeah,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: why why.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Because we don't. We need more time on this one.
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: Do you know, justin Herbert the Oregon Boys numbers in
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: the fucking freezing cold. I mean, there's just there's something
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: going on here, Chad. It's literally just won on Thursday
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: night and he put up thirty four points against Denver,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: like he's coming off arguably his best game of the
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: year in a primetime game, and the public is absolutely hammered.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: Yes, I agree with you.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: The books have been terrible this year, like they've hung
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: some horrible This makes no sense, Like it makes no sense.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: This was one of four games I had pegged as
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: a an executive decision.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Well, don't do this one. Let me protect you. There's
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: just something too fishing.
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: I need time on it because I'm with you, like
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: my model, I personally liked this spot for basically what
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: everything you just said, Like New England, how are they
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: not inflated coming off that game against the Bills.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: But we talked about it that felt like that was
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: more about the Bills having that game than it was then.
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: But no, look, there's just something totally off, effishly about
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: this game, and I just maybe again because it's a one.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: O'clock game or whatever.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: It's going to be one o'clock game East Coast in
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: the cold. Like I'm just trying to look for narratives
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: about why they've moved this so much, because, like we
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: just talked about this, this Patriots team is bad, Like
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: Herbert should have a day against this team.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: It makes no sense. I'm in no sense. I have
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: to choose an executive decision by the end of the show.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: And I appreciate you trying to protect me, and I
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: want to honor that because you have more access to
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: information than I do in certain areas, and so if
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: you're uncomfortable with it, but I went all in because
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: you said, what are we missing here? Because you agree
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: and your number has it, and your number like it's
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: not wrong that.
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: Off it isn't. But I'm just the guys. I know
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: who we're hitting this Patriots side. I just know that,
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: like they're not just doing it to do it, like
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: they're actually they know something that we're missing here. And
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: I like that's why I want to get more time
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: to talk to them and throughout why because you know,
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: not that I don't know why they're doing I kind
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: of have an idea for it. I'm just very skeptical
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: where I just know that this is going to be
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: ninety percent of the bets, ninety percent of tickets, every
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: every teaser, every part, like all this stuff, all the
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: Saturday games, we already seen it. All these favorites are
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: just being met up like crazy right now for this
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: Saturday matchup. So it's just if this was a year
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: of a normal year of us doing well on dogs,
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: this would have to be a big spot for me
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: to back the Patriots. Like this lines up in a
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: lot of ways to like this Patriots team. But just
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: because the favorites I have done so well, I'm not
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: throwing it out saying we can't bet this and put
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: in our contest. It's just I'm being hesitant right now
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: because it's like this number does.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Not What do you think the story is? Is it
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: information or is it something different?
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: I think it's information, And I also just think that
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: it's like there's something we're missing because it just feels
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: so easy. Like we just talked about this, this is
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: a legit good team that's charging they're a legit good
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: playoff team playing against a bad New England team that
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: wants to lose, like they don't want to keep winning
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: to move their draft stock, and it felt like that
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: was New England's everything game again, I don't want to
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: keep wasting more time on this one. But it's like,
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: I'm just I don't want to make I don't want
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: to let you make an executive because that I was
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: kicking myself out letting you make the Bills it last week,
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: but I was just like, I felt like that was
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: at a character for us in this show, and I
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: feel the same here with this one, where it's like
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: we're always on the other side of this one, but
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: this year is just we're trying to be more into
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: favorites and we've just been picking the wrong one.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: I feel like this is the wrong favorite.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: To back Listen, you don't let me do anything. I'm
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: my own man. I'm a man, I'm a contest.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: You're clear your own man. I mean you put him in.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: The Chargers played in New England last year at one
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: o'clock game. They won six nothing. But yeah, these favorites
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: are fucking us up. And of course last week we
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: wanted to pick a favorite for the contest. We went
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: all in on the Bills because why not go all
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: in on the best player in football who's having a
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: magical year, and the team always blows out in for
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: your competition at home in bad weather, and of course
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: against the worst team in the NFL, they can't cover.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: So but everybody else does the Packers do, the Lions do,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: the Bengals do, the Falcons do? We picked the one.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: I was watching that Packers game last night and that's
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: what I was thinking of, Like, are you fucking kidding me?
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: We picked the one massive cover, that massive favorite that
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: couldn't cover. Simon, here we are as in olden days,
• 31:57
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• 32:56
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• 33:00
  Speaker 1: dressed to my son, delivered to my house. I have
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: no idea if he bought it on his own. If
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: it's a gift for me, I don't want to open it.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: It's for my kid who's in Philly in college. He's
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: on his way home. I'm letting it lie, but I'm
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: very excited to see what it is. If I bought myself,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: Tommy John threw him, or if he bought it for himself,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: it's a mystery. Can't wait. I bet Matt Mitchell didn't
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: think I was going to sing those first two lines
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: for that ad. I know he likes to test me
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Denver at Cincinnati. You lean Cincinnati in
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: our initial read on Sunday night. It's moving in that direction.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Some places are three and a half. The game opened
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: at three. I'm not sure what's driving this tickets are
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. Money is heavy on Denver. This felt
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: a little trappy to me, like Joe Burrow on a street.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: The Broncos just lost in an ugly way in prime time,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: So I'm not loving the Bengals here. Are you still committed?
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: You pop committed to the Bengals?
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd still taking it.
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: And it is all about just the scenario that we
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: know that's about to play out here that they need
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: to win this game Cincinnati Denver does not. Denver can
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: lose this game and then play against Carson Wentz and
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs the following week, the pretty much decide their
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: playoff fee.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: They don't need this game. So that's that's one right
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: there that jumps out to me.
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: And the fact that you know, I already have a
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: little bit of not just reserve about how bo Nicks
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: is going to do in this exact scenario, but this
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: just feels like another game.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: But just Joe Burrow won't.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: Lose, like that he's gonna somehow will his team, and
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: that you know they'll win out but they're not gonna
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs regardless, just because what we just talked about,
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: like it's lined up perfectly for this Denver team. That
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: if the Chiefs do win on Pittsburgh, this is a
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: game that's gonna really decide what I'm gonna do with
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: this one. Like if they win against Pittsburgh. Not that
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: I think they're gonna rest players, right, they don't need
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: arrest players. Denver is a young team. Everyone's gonna play.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: I just don't know if the mental motivation is gonna
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: be there that I would have been. If the Chiefs
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: do lose to Pittsburgh and now they know that the
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: Chiefs are gonna be playing in the final week, that's
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: going to kind of change their game plan here. So Cincinnati,
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: like you're right, Chad, that defense getting three and a
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: half against anybody that's not the Cleveland Browns can't trust it.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: You cannot trust that Cincinnati team. So that that to
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: me is the key.
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: There's it won't be me and you're me in our
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: contest because we already know we're never gonna get the
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: two and a half. This is going up to three
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: and a half, so that means it'll be three and
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: a half our contest. I'd much rather if I had
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: to make a play, I'd much rather take Denver at
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: plus three and a half come Saturday. But as you
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: sit here right now with no info about what's gonna
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: happen that Chiefs game, I've just bet the Bengals number
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: at minus three just because we just talked about the movement.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: I thought it was it'd go up on.
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: The Bengal side because of what we've already talked about
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: that this Denver team, they just they might not end
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: up meeting this game and they might just take it
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: into Week eighteen. But yeah, another line that you know,
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: you just said the money is coming in heavy on
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: the Denver side, But it's to me it's going to
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: be in a huge public play the Cincinnati team comes Saturday.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't make any sense to me, honestly, Like
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Denver's pass rush can be just as effective as Cleveland's
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: which was in Burrows Grill all day on Sunday, sacked
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: them four times. Also, it's why he looks so good.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: He was scrambling his way into miracles. Like the play
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: that everyone's talking about where he's throwing it while you know,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: diving that only happens because he literally had to do
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: pirouettes to get out of a sack and out of
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: the pocket. Denver is just as effective rushing the passer,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: if not more effective, than Cleveland, and they have better
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: offensive strategy and better offensive coaching and better offensive players
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: and a better quarterback. Cleveland like almost covered that game, right,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: dtr just happens to be terrible, but they were in
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: position to cover that game multiple times. So I don't
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on Denver recovering. I just have
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: a stronger opinion that the Bengals are a bit inflated.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: But I don't think it's gonna make it because, like
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: you said, we got to decide by one o'clock on Saturday,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: and we won't know enough about how Denver is going
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: to be approaching the game based on the Chiefs. I
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: like your logic there, all right, Arizona at the Los
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Angeles Rams. This is another one that's been moving. We
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: flattened it on Sunday night.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: It was that was really you.
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: That was a great call by you said you looked
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: it at four, then you liked it at five, and
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: now it's.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: Up to six.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I liked it pre show. To be honest, it
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: moved from I think four and a half to five
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: to five and a half by the time we were
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: off the show. I didn't get it until five and
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: a half, so you can see that in the app
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: it's at six. As my partner in the contest and
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: on this show. How do you feel about me leaning
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: into the rams as an executive decision?
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, you can do it.
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: I mean if the number, the number mood have to
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: scared you off, if you don't think you're getting a
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: bad number, I don't know.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: It's like, it's really why I don't want to do it,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: because I feel like we've lost all the value and
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: six is sort of where it's supposed to be. It's
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: actually headed a six and a half. Yeah, you look
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: at the Jews. So I really wanted to make this
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: my exec decision. I was hoping it would stay below six.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: I think we might get five and a half in
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: the contest.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: That'd be nice because I think the movement too.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: We talked about like Connor being hurt, that's a big
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: deal for the Areason team, Like he's been so special
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: for that offense, you know, as much praise as we
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: like to get the Kyler and what he's done this season.
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: Thank you Kyleer for getting us over the win total overall.
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: He struggled especially against good teams this season.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: And you know, as.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: Much shock there is about this Rams team getting to
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: this point, like you know, they had an another year
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: where they started out the gate really slow, and then
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: as the year went along, they just got keep getting better.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: You can see the Sam scenario here, Like we know
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: that they basically got away with one these last two games,
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: like that that game against the forty nine ers that
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: they got incredibly lucky, and the same thing happened with
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: the Jets. This this usually is a snare where they
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: don't get lucky and they just they like legit legitimately
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: win this game and just beat the hell out of
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: this Cardinals team, because this is another game where you
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: know Cardinals guests. Could they come in and play spoiler? Sure,
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: I just don't know if they had that type of attitude,
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: Like I don't know about you.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: But like now, I don't think they do. I don't,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: I don't, I don't at all.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: And I just think that Carolina game literally took the
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: wind out of their sales, like totally crushed that team.
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: I mean you I read a really interesting piece about
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: just no one spoke the flight home from Carolina, Like
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: that was the quietest flight and shatter.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: I got Chris Long.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: He talks all the time about those are the best
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: moments of your life, flying home a long flight after
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: a big win and literally the worst thing you can
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: experience in your lifetime after a really bad loss, knocked
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: at the playoffs to a Carolina team that at the
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: time only had three wins, Like that was brutal for them,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: and now they're supposed to bounce back from it on
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: a short week against the Rams. I just I can't
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: see it. So it's like, I like, I like the Rams.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, though. The fear is that you know,
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: neither of us be shocked if this does laying on
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: six just because it has moved now from four all
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: way up. But you know, I still like it, Like
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: I'm getting sucked in right now. But it's like it's
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: it's six. I could easily see this gain into seven,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: just because the Rams do feel like a better team
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: and we have a letdown for this Cardinals team.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: It's going to six and a half for sure. What's
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: so funny is you know I make a lot of
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: notes in our script before we do the show, as
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: I do my research on Mondays and Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: You just used two lines that are exact from the script.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: The more I talk to more I researched this game,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I still liked it. Right the Rams running against the Cards,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: bottom test ten rush defense, bottom three in tackling. And
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: you just said something really important that I said as well.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: So now we're both saying it. Only you said it first.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: I wrote it first. They got away with one. They
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: got away with one against the Jets. That was a
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: trap game. It's why we like the Jets in that game.
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: If the Jets were any more competent, they would have
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: won that game. Now they come home knowing they cannot
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: let off the gas if they want to eliminate any
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: playoff drama, if James Connor is injured, if he's not
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: playing like it just seems like such a good spot
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: for this rush game to dominate. And then I noticed
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: this action has its own version of Spotify wrapped. You know,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: in the action app, you can go in you look
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: at your profile and it gives you your biggest wins
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: and losses. Most units won are lost on an individual
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: team for the year. My most units won on an
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: individual team, the Los Angeles Rams.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: How about that.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: How about that I already loved it before I knew
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: that I'm going to come back to it. Since you
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: have a strong opinion about exec decisions, and honestly, I
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: like I was so off on the Bills. I would
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: like some input, as I say, feedback as a gift,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: so I might just make my decision at the end.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Maybe we do it together. New York Jets at Buffalo.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: I don't want to spend too much time in this.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: It opened to ten, it's now at nine and a half.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Maybe this is the week we should have been betting
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the Bills this big home face against the division foe.
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: It could be it's another line that you know asks, Yeah,
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: I do like the Jets. It just feels like a
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: huge number that, like we just said, as bad as
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: they have looked. You know, maybe I'm just a sucker
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: for Aaron Rodgers, but it's just that's an insane number
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: for a Bills team that their defense just you know,
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: have so many reason they just can't get stops like
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: they made Drake May look like an All Pro for
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: their first quarter, like every guy who's hitting just felt
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: like they were wide open when he wanted them to
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: be so I get it. Chat we've been burned by
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: the Jets. I don't want to deal with it. I'm
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: with you. Let's pass on it.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers made a funny joke on McAfee, saying that,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: you know, if he gets released by a teenager, it
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: would be the first time, and after twenty years, there's
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: always room for something new, making a joke about whatdy
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Johnson's kids having an influence on the team and being
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: the ones who release him after the season Las Vegas
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: at New Orleans before the Saints game yesterday. There's a
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: big pro joe split on this game, with the public
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: back in the Saints, the pros back and the Raiders.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: You've liked the Raiders in certain spots this year. I
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: would lean Raiders here just because I think they're slightly better.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: But that was before last night, and now I'd kind
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: of like to wait to see how the line moves
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: and if there's any value on the Saints.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was shocked.
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: I thought we were gonna wake up today and this
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: line would be, you know, Saints plus three plus two.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm shocked that it's not like I So I'm
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: just waiting for the public to weigh in and back
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, or maybe they just hate the Raiders so much.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Nothing's going to change here.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but last night was very like every
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: everything that could have gone wrong for the Saints did.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: Like, I mean, they had two turnovers when they got
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: the other side of the field towards the Green Bay
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: and and yeah, like I think they started the game
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: what down fourteen nothing because it's just basically Lafleur was
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: going from fourth downs like he just was not playing
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: with his food in that game. He was basically going
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: for the knockout punch in that first quarter. So yeah,
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: it's it's very tempting to take that Raiders team just
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: because you know, as bad as the Jags have been,
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: the Raiders looked like a complete team in that game.
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: Like O'Connell looked comfortable and he was pushing the ball downfield.
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: And we've talked about these injuries with the Saints, like
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: they just their whole offense is just gone. Where On
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: the flip side, this Raiders team, they still have arguably
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: the best, one of the best tight ends on football
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: and Rock Bowers and he can make big plays and
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: big moments for them, and that's been the key for
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: them these last couple of weeks. This Raiders team, So yeah,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: it's a game I don't mind avoiding. I'm so glad
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: we're able to bet some of these Saturday games as
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: well in our contests, because I initially thought, oh my god,
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: we're either gonna have to have Tennessee or the Saints
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: in our contest, and hopefully we can avoid both those
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: teams and then we probably know we should take one
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: of them. It's it's very tempting, but it's just I'm
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: not in a rush. Like I just said, this is
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: another game. I can see the number flipping just because
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: the public coming in so heavy on this Raiders team.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Well, the good news is I really love the Titans,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: so we can talk about that, you know, But this
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: is this does feel like the exact spot to back
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: the Saints, right, and I bet every trend when we
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: look at it on Thursday. I'll leave this in so
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: we can talk about it on Thursday. Evan will tell us,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: probably in his column that comes out this week, that
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: you back the team that just got blown out out
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: in prime time by thirty four points when they're going home.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: And so we're if this was another year and we
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: weren't a little bit gun shy, we'd be hammering the Saints.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: We wouldn't even think about it. But at this the
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: end of the year, we have won fifteen more games
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: than we have and we want to be so worried
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: about every single game and playing so tight, right, Indy
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: at the New York Giants, Giants plus eight to move
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: from seven and a half to eight. I know Drew
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Locke had an MRI and a shoulder on Monday. Maybe
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: too early to know who's playing quarterback. Does it even matter?
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: If we were playing a pick every game game, I
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: guess I'd go with the Colts, but.
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: Ugh, same, I go Colts. I don't get why this
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: line is not ten. This is another bizarre line they've
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: hung where it's like this Giants team have totally given
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: up on the season. They're just sitting guys at this
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: point that like, if you're a little banged up, right,
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: you're not coming back to play at this point for
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: the Giants. And yeah, even last week they're in that
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: game and then it just all fell apart like a
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: house of cards. And it really comes down to do
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: you have a quarterback that can make a throw on
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: third and six? And right now, the Giants do not
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: seem like to have one. We're on the flip side
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: as much as we like to shit on Anthony Richardson,
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: you know, as the season gones along, they've they've figured
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: out the perfect medium for him is if he's throwing
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: the ball one than twenty times, they're probably gonna lose
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: that game. Like that's They don't want him to be
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: dropping back throwing it a ton. They want him to
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: be doing the Reid option, either running it downfield, taking
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: taking on linebackers, or handed to Jonathan Taylor on these huge,
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: gaping open holes. Just because these guys are having to
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: account for Anthony Richardson, right these linebackers can't just suck
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: into the middle. They always have to kind of lean
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: towards the outside because he is happy to pull it
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: down and take it outside. And if he gets one
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: on one with a cornerback, he's gonna.
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: Win that battle. Every time.
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: He's always gonna be going forward, he's going against the
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: undersized cornerback.
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a cold team that figured it
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: out too late.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: They would have been a really fun run here at
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: the end here, like the challenging Houston that would have
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: been a.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Really fun race.
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: But a team that clearly has not given up, they
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: can still make the playoffs. We expect them to role
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: here against the Giants, team that just has given up
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: on the season.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Do we want to consider the Colts as probably seven
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites in the contest.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it. I mean I don't hate it.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: Like you just said, if it's Tim.
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: Boyle, well why wouldn't we?
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, what are they what are they going to
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: do if it's Tim Boyle?
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it. Like if we're picking every game,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: then that's the side I would be on. Yeah, Carolina
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay is an eight point favorite.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: This is an interesting number to me. So they played
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: in week thirteen and Tampa Bay was a six and
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite. The game went to OT. They
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: played in Week four thirteen in Carolina, Tampa was a
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: six and a half point favorite on the road went
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: to ot. The Bucks only won that game because Truba
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: Hubbard fumbled in field goal range. So a month later,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: the line is in Tampa Bay, the game isn't tap
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: of data, the line is only eight. So there's two
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: things here. Some respect being given to the Panthers for
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: how they've played, which means that bookmakers' ratings, I don't know,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: wise guys ratings on this Panthers team have changed a
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: little bit. Also reflects I think the new world order
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: of the NFL or home field advantage is not as much.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: What is your rating on this game?
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: This line makes me feel a sucker? Am I sucker?
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: For a love and Carolina?
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Here?
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: What is this number?
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: This was also on my list for executive decision. I
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: don't get it.
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: I really do not get this one. I know that
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: the Bucks they beat up on bad teams this year,
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: and I get that maybe the books are saying we're
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: overrating this Carolina team too much, but or maybe I'll
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: let down after an overtime win, right, But it's like,
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: come on, what is this number?
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: This is?
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: There's way too much respect for a Bucks team and
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: too much disrespect for this Panthers team. Like this number
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: at six six and a half makes more sense to
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: me than the fact that's cross the key number we
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: talk all the time of seven, seven and a half
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: and eight, Like you're getting this at plus eight right now?
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: It makes no sense. So this was also on my
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: list for executive decision.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Are you av your honest text acute number?
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: Executive decision? Love it like this is a game.
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: I threw right away into a teaser, like you can
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: get this up till fourteen right now, which is just
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: insane for this Panthers team. But I honestly thought about
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: making the Simon says, just because I can't. I cannot
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: see this number not coming down like I see.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: I came to my senses. I made it an exec
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: decision because I haven't completely abandoned all of our principles,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean?
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Who did you?
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: And we do have to dig down this one because,
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: like we saw it last week, I know some groups
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: that not that they don't not that they don't think
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: this Carolina team is good, but they think they're overrated
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: a little bit.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Like they came in heavy on the Cardinals Sunday morning.
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: We saw that number go from four and a half
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: to five to five and a half to a lot
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: of books were at six by kickoff, which blew my mind.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie me and Chatter are going through
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: our picks. I'm like, what are we missing here? Are
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: we missing something on this Carolina Arizona game. No, they
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: went outright, that was a good read. So another week
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: of I guess this Carolina team's just being disrespected and
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: the books are just saying, like, you know, not that
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: it happened in that Dallas game, but it kind of did. Right,
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: Like if bright Shung has a bad game and he's
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: uncomfortable the whole game, this Carolina team will never cover
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: a win, right, their defense is just so bad. He
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: has to be the reason they keep it close. So
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: he's been so good to us, Like he's just been
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: so good to us covering. Like other than that Dallas game,
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: which again me and you avoided. We did not bet
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: that game. We stayed away from because we just knew that,
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: you know, once they became favorites on Carolina, Like, Okay,
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: it's moved too much. This is not that this is
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: an eight point dog against a Bucks team that I
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: know they're desperate because right now they're not leaving their
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: division anymore. But it's like, I just don't think they're
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: good enough to be favored by eight points, especially against
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: the Carolina team that is very competitive and the first
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: time they played should have beat them out right.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Who did you tease this game with?
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Uh? I did? I did the Ravens.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: You did the Ravens, so you teased it over I did.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I did through zero, so I have a Ravens
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: plus two. But like I just I was just basically just.
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: Throw it in there because I was worried this number
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: is gonna go it was gonna move too fast. But yeah,
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: it's if you're looking for like Saturday teasers. Obviously, you
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: know there's plenty of games this week. But like we
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: just talked about that Colts game, if I would have
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: thought more clearly, I easily would have paired the Colts
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: with this right, get the Colts down to two, that
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: would have been the play.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: I like that too. Making a note, the trend is
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: to back the Panthers here. We talked about this last week.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: But these teams with a winning percentage of between fifty
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: and fifty nine percent, so they're good ish, which means
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: late in the year they're fighting for a playoff spot.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: They haven't proven it, they've gotten lucky, they've made some
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: good calls. When they're facing a team in week sixteen,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: seventeen or eighteen below five hundred, the good team is
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: only thirty eight percent against the spread in the past
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: twenty years. Since twenty twenty two, they are ten nineteen
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: and one. This trend was one in one last week.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Worked with Carolina and Arizona, did not with the Rams
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: and Jets, but it totally should have Carolina exec decision.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: Love it, Milman, great call. You never wavered, you didn't
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: need any help. You were spot on. But that's how
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: we do it. Here in the Favorites, BFF Power Forever. Simon,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: this is good. You're going to like this. Can you
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: name the best ticketing app in the United Sime States?
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time. I have
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: been trying to preach to everybody the importance of experiences
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: over the holidays with your loved ones. Everyone knows how
• 54:15
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• 54:31
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• 54:35
  Speaker 1: his family outside San Francisco. This is like my best
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  Speaker 1: January first. So he and I were catching up the
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  Speaker 1: other day he tells me this. I asked him how
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: he bought the tickets. He said to me, not even joking,
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• 55:15
  Speaker 1: can promise you when he said that, he was not
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: just saying that to make me feel good. Make some memories.
• 55:23
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• 55:55
  Speaker 1: Game time? What are we gonna do about this? Tennessee
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: game open to two and a half Jacksonville two and
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite over the Titans. It's down to one,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: so it's moving in the Titans direction. Like, even when
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at this at one, it doesn't make sense.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: The Titans are bad, clearly look horrible against the Cults,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: is why the line was at two and a half.
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: But their defense is serviceable. I mean, the Jags are terrible,
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: bottom ten or bottom three in every category from the
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: superficial to the advanced mac Jones. Even when Brian Thomas
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Junior is open for a wide open touchdown, he's under
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: throwing them. Like, the Jags are such a bad team.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: I want to bet the Titans here. They're now two
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: and thirteen against the spread. That is a record. It's
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: gotta regress. Walk me off a ledge here? Can we
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: not bet the Titans? Make me not do it?
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: I would finally after many weeks of fighting, I would
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: finally give it him. Bet the Titans here, just because
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: the first time they played, they would have rolled if
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: Mason Off was their quarterback. That was really all about
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: Will Levis is why they lost the first time I played.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember that game.
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: They're basically up six nothing in the entire game, and
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: then the fourth quarter they give up field goal. I
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: think Will Loves had a terrible turnover, and they give
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: up a touchdown to Mac Jones and to lose ten
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: to six.
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: So, like we've talked about, this is history.
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: This team is now are they two and thirteen seven
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: or two and twelve against the spread.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: It's like you're not even listening to me. I just
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: said it.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: It's like I'm reading my notes. I can't believe it.
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: Like even even you're trying to say their defense is
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: not that bad after they gave up thirty seven to
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: Sinci then thirty eight to the Colts in back to
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: back weeks.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: It's probably one of my favorite things on this show.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: It's, oh, God, give me a fucking break.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: Tennessee's defense is not that bad. It's just a whole
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: lot of.
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: In context, in context, you know, they're like, they're middle
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: of the road. They're ranked fifteenth in just about every category.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: You know, I did.
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: That's just because of the division they play, and they
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: have that rank. They're probably a bottom twenty. I mean,
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: they are horror Bill. You know, everything just about the
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: same team is bad. It's scary because are we bet
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: on a team that's simply given up Chad and like
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: on the season. I know they had dogging and they
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: fought hard last week to come back, but they're just
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: such a bad team. But we both know this is
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: the spot we have to bet Tennessee. We're supposed to
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: bet them here, We're supposed to take the number. Obviously,
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: we're pissed we're not getting two and a half, like
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: that would have been an auto play in the contest.
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: But still is a plus one plus one and a
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: half dog. I'll take it. But yeah, it's it's it's bad.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: This is just such a bad team, bad team, bad team.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: You know what we've won in the past betting bad
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: teams as dogs. We did it this past week.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: I made a good living betting bad teams.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, all right, Well it's on the list. Dallas
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: at PHILADELPA it's on the list, and we're gonna get
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: our picks in by one o'clock on Saturday, Dallas at Philadelphia.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: So listen. I want to get your take on this. This,
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: This is important, This is why people listen to this show.
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: Dallas was at seven and a half on Sunday night
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: and we were betting Dallas. It actually got to eight.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: I bet it at eight. We were betting Dallas as
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: a hedge against Jalen Hurts not playing. All of a
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: sudden a Monday afternoon, it jumped to ten and a half,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: came back down to nine and a half, and now
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: at nine. Dude, what is going on with this line?
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen any news about Jalen Hurts, like I
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: have been refreshing. I've been trying to see on Twitter
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: wherever people are looking. I cannot find any information that
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: guarantees or commits or confirms that he's playing.
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sadly this.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: I don't think we're going to know till Friday or Saturday.
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: And the holidays obviously doesn't help because I'm sure we're
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: not gonna get any role leaked information on Christmas.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: Arvicefty never rests, that's dude, never rests.
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: But like I said to you, clearly someone knows some
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: because they've come in so heavy on this Eagles side.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: And at one point, yeah, this number was ten, ten
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: and a half at a couple of books, which was
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: pretty shocking to see, just because I mean, say what
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: you want about the Cowboys, but they played hard last
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: week in Cooper Rush. Since he stepped in, he's looked
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: like a good quarterback. Now you gave me some fow
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: that I didn't know that he's basically the only team
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: he struggles against is this Eagles team. Like in his career,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: it seems like they're the type of team that's given
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: him problems. Now you factor in the fact that the
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss and their defense
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: really struggled like they're at the end of the day.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, yes, they had five takeaways, but they're the reason.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: They lost that game. Like it's it.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: I guess Devonte Smith dropping the ball is an ideal,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: but give up that many points to a rookie quarterback,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: especially one that's given a ton of turnovers, it's a
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: really bad look. And this is a huge bounced back
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: spot for the Eagles. My fear here is just that
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: the number is just too inflated for that to happen.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: Like the opening of the back is always gonna be
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: there with Cooper Rush. Yeah, Like this Eagles is not
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: a team that just blows teams out.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: I know that.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: You can look at the schedule like, well, they beat
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh by double digits. When you talked Dad nas me
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: about that one, it was like Pittsburgh was basical going
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: to cover that game no matter what, and then they
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: had a really bad Najia Harris fumble that kind of
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: flipped that whole game. So you're basically gonna need a
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: little bit of luck here if you're back in this
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: Eagles team.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: But you know, we both talked about it off air
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: like this does.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: Seem like a bounce back spot where the Eagles just
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: absolutely crush this Cowboys team. If Jalen hurts his back
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: and they use next week as of any bye week, right,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: they need this to lock up the two seed, to
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: lock up the division, then they can take Week eighteen
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: off everyone that everyone's gonna know that. On the flip side,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: Cowboys had a bunch of injuries in that game against
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: the Buccaneers.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: Felt like such a hard game like that was just
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: so such a hard ending game. It's not a short week,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: right because that was something that game. But still they're
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: gonna have to travel across country that that to me
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: is another problematic spot for this Cowboys team. So yeah,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: I'm really interested to see what the Hurts news is. Again,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: not rushing to bet it, but this is under ten.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: Chat. Maybe me and you have a conversation. I'll put
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: egos in our contest.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's right. I got the I got
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys at eight, and I'm kind of just hoping
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: to buy back on the Eagles. I just want to
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: see where we land. To be honest, I'm just making
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: a note. I want to wait on Hurts. Okay, Miami
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland. We really wanted to love the Dolphins on
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Sunday night when it was six, we hesitated because it
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: too is challenges on the road in cold weather. The
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: initial move was down to five and a half, but
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: then it got bet up to six and a half
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: by late Monday. I don't really have a strong opinion here.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins defense is better than it gets
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: credit for, and it's also possible like they may only
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: need a touchdown a score to cover this number against
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns offense. But do you have an opinion
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: on this?
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Browns. Honestly, I would make it,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: Simon says if I knew who the quarterback was. I
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: had no idea who the quarterback is of Cleveland. And
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: just like Chad, I'm like trying as best I can
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: to for who the hell is gonna be, you know,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: hitting up resources, and none of it's really coming back
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: the info I won, Like, I just want to be Jamis,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: to be honest, I know that he's he screws in
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: a couple of spots this year, but it's like this
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: is the perfect Jamis matchup for him.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this number though,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: but it's six and a half. I'm betting Cleveland. I
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: love Cleveland here.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: And it really is all about to do with Miami
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: and what we talk all the time chat just they're
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: a different team when they leave Miami, like to at home,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: he does what he just did last week, right, He's dynamic.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: Like offensively, they can move the ball, they can score
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: a lot of points. The running game, the past game,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: all of it hits differently at home in that weather.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: This is like I.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: Already I already feel I'm gonna wake up to Lake
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: effect wind and snow in Cleveland, and then they're gonna
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: show to a all wrapped up trying to act like
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: he's not freezing cold. And yeah, it's just a bad
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: It feels like a bad spot for Miami, and that
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: a great spot for Cleveland. Is still one more win
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: before the end of their season, so yeah, again not
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: making it. Simon says, there's one more game. I really
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: like more, but plus six and a half. If you
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: like me and you like Cleveland, I'd grabbed that now
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: before we find out even who the quarterback is for Cleveland.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: By the way, good call the weather on Sunday in Cleveland.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: It's supposed to be pretty warm. It could be in
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: the fifties on game time. It's going to be in
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: the forties. But it is supposed to be rainy, so
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: it's not going to be very cold, but it will
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: be rainy at least as of today. How does that
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: make you feel if it's not going to be cold
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: but it's rainy.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: It's just something I'll keep my eye on.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: Again, it's not again I'm rushing out the beck because
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: I have no idea the quarterback is. But that was
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: just my first initial thought. It was just like, man,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: I can't believe too is getting minus six and a
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: half on the road in Cleveland.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: In late December, green Bay at Minnesota.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: So I.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Watched this, I said the other day, We've talked about
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: this on Sunday night, and I was kind of leaning
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: green Bay. Yeah, And I was trying to and you
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: ask me why, and I've been trying to figure out why.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: And then I watched the Packers last night, and I
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: realize why I like them so much more than Minnesota.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: It's not a coaching edge. I do think I take
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: Lafloor over O'Connell in an alley brawl, I think, you know,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: but I think it's about Josh Jacobs first and Jordan
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: Love second. I think the Packers' primary strategy is be physical,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: run the ball, don't make mistakes, and Minnesota's truly dynamic
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: and explosive. I don't think they have the kind of
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: personnel for that offensive game. And I think every week
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: where living on the edge with Sam Darnold and those
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: outs that he's throwing and someone jumping in front of
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: those he's got magical receivers who are making great catches
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: deep down the field, like like Green Bay Packers second
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: most units won this year, and my action wrapped. I
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: feel like on Sunday you liked Minnesota and we're trying
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: to talk me off green Bay, so I feel like
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: you might think differently here.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm still in Minnesota just because of what they've
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: done in one score games this year, and this is
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: clearly under a field goal. Now it's under one and
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: a half, and now it's just minus won a lot
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: of books for Minnesota, and I think it's warranted. Like
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: you just said, green Bay look like the more complete team.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: Even coming to the season, we all thought of them
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: as a more complete team. I mean, I can't tell
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: me how many future bets this Viking team are going
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: to ruin if they get the two seater or the
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: one seat in this division, because so many people were
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: either hammering Green Bay or hammering Detroit to win this division.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: Game that's going to decide a lot of money in
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: the future market. And you know, earlier in the year
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: we took Green Bay against Minnesota, I believe they were
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: minus two and a half or whatever it was at
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: home against his Vikings team, and we basically got got
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: it was Jordan Love came back off his injury. I
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: think he threw two or three picks in the game,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: just did not look right and that you know, it
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: took him a lot to get right. But it also
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: speaks to just this team in Minnesota that if it's close, Chad,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: they win. I mean they I've say, lost that Detroit game,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: you know, thirty one to twenty nine, I believe, which
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: was a crazy close game, came down the last possession.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: We all know the story, and then they got blown
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: out by their Rams. They lost thirty to twenty the
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: following week. Since then they have not lost, right, So
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: obviously they're a team that just like the Eagles were
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: due for a loss, just like Detroit was eventually due
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: for a loss, Vikings are clearly due for a loss.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: But they've just had this one score magic that it
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: just keeps bouncing their way. Like I mean, you know
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: that that Bears game. The Bears probably should have stole
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: that game on one and over time they had the
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: opportunity to do it. You know, Sam Donald drives whatever
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: that was seventy yards downfield from his own like five
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: or ten to get them in field goal range, and
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: he just time and time again stepped up Arizona another
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: game that should have lost at home, he came back
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: in that fourth quarter, Sam Donald, and beat Arizona twenty
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: three to twenty two. So that's my hesitation, brother. It's
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: just like, I agree everything you've said, green Bay. I
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: have them grated higher, I have them power rated higher.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: I have them as a favorite in this game. So again,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: the number right now is better towards green Bay.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: I just don't think.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: I don't think the computers can comprehend what this Viking
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: team is, which is just a team that if you
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: give them the smallest inch of life. If Sam Donald
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: has the ball now with two minutes to go and
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: he just needs a field goal to take the lead,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: it's crazy to say, but I have to have confidence
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: now that he's gonna do it because he's done it
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: so many times this season. He just keeps having these
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: game winning drives at the end of the game. So yeah,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: laws of averages, chat and everything you just said is
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: so true about green Bay. But I just can't get there.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: I'm just I can't believe I'm saying this. Regular season,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: I'm scared of the Vikings. But yeah, as an Eagles fan,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: I am praying that I get to play the Minnesota
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 3: Vikings in the playoffs.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: I am fascinated by our logic here. It feels so
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: sort of the antithesis, right, like play the number, play
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: the team that you think is better. This is a
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: counting on something ethereal and unquantifiable over playing the basic
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: math that is in front of us.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely a game. I'm throwing the math other
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: on just because it's what the Vikings are doing. Does
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: makes no sense. We've never like we just talked about,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: like the list he's on with the quarterbacks who have
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: won whatever was thirteen games or first year with their team.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: It's McNair and Peyton Manning, Like these are two Hall
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: of Fame MVP quarterbacks, and now it's Sam Darnold. It's
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: just it's crazy what he's done this season. Him and
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: Kevin O'Connell.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: It's just an incredible, incredible run they're on.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: We have to we might have to make Minnesota Green
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: Bay Scoot Roulette Atlanta at Washington. Washington is now a
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: four point favorite. This one has come down a bit
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: since Sunday, I don't actually mind, like I think i'd
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: want to bet Washington. So I'm glad the numbers coming down.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: Simon says, take Atlanta Falcons. When Simon says do it,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: we do what say?
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: Wow?
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: The world Yeah, I'm in it broke down. I went
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: back watching the Pennix tape and.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: He was great.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: Yes it is night Day from him Mkirk Cousins. The
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: way that offense can run now, the fact that these
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: safeties can't come down, like it's going to open up
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: so much for Robinson. And we just saw it.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: This Washington defense, Chad, they're not that good like.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: They were whatever they did early in the year, the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: schemes they ran, it's been figured out for the most part, right,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: we've kind of seen down this tail end here. I
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: mean even your guy Killer Williams tore them up for
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 3: the most part, like he had those two big drives
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: at the end of the game. Because of the games
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: go along, it seems like Washington's defense just isn't as
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: good as you know, we all thought they were early
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: in the year, just because during the year they were
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: really good, Like dan Quinn had those guys playing at
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: a really high level. You know, they basically almost just
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: gave up a back door to Spencer Rattler. Like, after
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: watching that Saints game last night, it was like, I
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 3: can't believe he almost just upset.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: And beat them.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: You know, got smoked by Dallas a couple of weeks
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: ago in Cooper Rush. It's just I don't think they're
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: a good enough defense to be catching more than three
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: points against an offense that can't move the ball in
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: a team that's leading their division right now in Atlanta. Now,
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: we talked about it Sunday night, Like my hesitation was,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: this is Michael Pennock's second start. Now he's gonna be
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: on the road in a primetime game. That's a lot
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: to put on a rookie shoulder in this exact spot.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: But he seems like a cool dude that's like, doesn't
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: get phased by this. I was watching another interview of him,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: uh from what he played at Washington, I believe, and
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: it was basically him in the college playoffs talking and like,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: you know, just the fact that they'd never been there before,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: in the pressures here feeling and it just seems so
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: cool colmic collective, and I was just like, he's got
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: a little bit that Joe Burrow to him that like,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like he's gonna get flustered by this
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: big moment, and that he's ready to meet this moment.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: And going back and watch.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: The tape, I couldn't believe how good he was and
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: command he was in the pocket. I mean, obviously that
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: one pick Kyle Pitts kind of left him out there
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: to dry. He had like a Kyle pits Ba's got
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: a bad juggle at the.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: No.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: Right And you know Pro Football Focus had him graded
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: really high last week after that performance, So it's like
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: the numbers back it up. He backs up the eye test.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: It's really all about the letdown from this Washington team
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: like that, that win they just had, How do you
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: not come down from it the following week like that?
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: That to me was just so insane, that comeback win
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: against the Eagles where they definitely got away with him
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: there and no Wilch. They have won that with five turnovers.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 3: Like the only team that we've done that is Detroit, right.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: Detroit did that against Houston earlier in the year with
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: a late, late second field goal to steal.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: So I'm pissed the numbers moved down so much.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: I was really hoping this four and a half for
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: Simon says, but I still like the four just because
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: I see the same thing last week. I thought Washington
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: was going to get down to three against Philly. I
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: think the same thing with Atlanta. I think Atlanta's gonna
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 3: get down to three three and a half in this matchup.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: So grab the four while you can't get that key number.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: You know you call Caleb boydme is my guy and
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: I love him dearly and I want him to be
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: brilliant and I think she will be one day. Michael
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: Pennix is also my guy because Michael Pennix was brilliant
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: at my alma mater, Indiana University. Yeah, during the COVID
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: years and if not for the injuries, and then I
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: became an Avid Avid fan when he was at Washington.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: I love watching the guy throw, like I you know,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: I watched a lot of that Atlanta Giants game mainly
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: because I wanted to watch Michael Pennix because I think
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: he's so good throwing the ball. He's so accurate, he's
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: so comfortable, he's so smooth. I agree with your take
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: on his presence, and I do think you look you
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: play in big games in college, and he's old. He's
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: not a twenty year old kid like Anthony Richardson coming
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: in who's an athletic freak but hasn't had the exposure
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: to high pressure situations. He's played in massive games. Obviously,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: the NFL prime time, late in the season, playoffs online
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: is different. But when you're twenty two to twenty three
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: and you're leading your team to an undefeated season or
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: near undefeated season, and then you're playing in Michigan for
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: a national title or you've got to beat Oregon twice
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: to get into the national title game and get in
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, Like if you're at Indiana and you're playing
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: at Northwestern, that's scary. So I'm kidding about the last
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: one signment. Okay, so he's played in spots and he's
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: old already. All these guys, they're so freaking old.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: So, and not to punch down the other sports, but this,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: this game, to me, sums up why the NFL's king
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: and just the best sport by far that it doesn't
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: need to do anything to self promote because of this
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: exact game of you have a rookie quarterback and Jane
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: Daniels now, you know, bringing this Washington team back from
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 3: hell to them thinking they're gonna have fifteen years of
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: greatness playing against an Atlanta team, that same thing. They've
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: been looking for a quarterback for their lifetime. Now these
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: both these guys are on a Sunday night primetime game,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 3: two rookies, and they're both deciding their playoff fate.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: It's like the.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: MLB, the NHL. Yeah, they literally can never even dream
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: up this exact scenario. So it's just to me as
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: a fan of just football, it's like this is the best,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 3: Like these two young guys trying to save these two franchises.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: I've just been sputtering these last couple of years. I
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: just love this matchup so much.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, man, you know what You've turned me around.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: I didn't have a strong opinion. I leaned Washington.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: I got we were coming from Washington, though, just because
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: it is Pennix on the road as a rookie like this.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: Is, I'm all in Penix, Penix, Penix, Detroit and San
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: Francisco plus three and a half the Niners in the
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: action wrapped my third most units won after the Rams
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: and the Packers Detroit Lions. Most units lost San Francisco
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: forty nine consistently overvalued them this past season and this
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: past year of twenty twenty four.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: I said that might just been from the playoff run
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: where you just kept backing them and they lost every
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: week and then luckily you got off on the Super Bowl.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: Though I did. I did. I'm looking for reasons to
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: not date Detroit and I'm not sure I can find any.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: This is another game that comes down to playoff seating,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: right if Minnesota loses to green Bay, Because remember we
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: were like, what the fuck is this line? I can't
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: believe this line, still can not believe this line. It
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: is bizarre, but this line is still like I don't
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: care if the trade has injuries like this.
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: Forty Nitiers team just can't move the ball and score.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: They can't finish drives. It's been a probable.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: Well, their offensive line is terrible there, running backs are
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: not very good right now, they're down.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: Or fourth back. Yeah yeah.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: So this line to me is just the books hedging
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: that what we just talked about, Minnesota can lose to
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: green Bay and then I think it makes it so
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: that this that game doesn't matter next week because it's
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: just I don't really understand this line at all, Detroit, don't.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, if if the Vikings lose and they win
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: this game, Detroit is not does not just lock up
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 3: them to be the one seed. Again, I don't really
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 3: know the whole playoff seeding how it works.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: I think it. I think so. Wait no, because they'd
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: have to win one more game because they've lost two games.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: The Eagles have lost three games, the Vikings will have
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: lost three games, so they have to win at least
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: one more game to win the tiebreakers against those teams.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: But then they'd still have to beat Detroit.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: The only time break of that matters is Vikings.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: That's if Minnesota loses, then it's done, because Minnesota will
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: have lost four games. They only have lost two games.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: If they still have to win one more because.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 3: Minnesota, Minnesota is only at two losses.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's what I mean.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: So, like, I don't know what the books are doing
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: this line. I wanted to put my life savings right
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: now on this Detroit team because that's what it just
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: feels like. They're going to kill this team and destroy them,
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: and it's a bad number. But the books are trying
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: to tell us something here, making this three and a
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: half another primetime game. I don't know if they're just
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: giving away money here, but it feels like that, like
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: this number team should be six. It's three and a
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: half tons of value right now on this Detroit side.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: But like we just said, I have to look more
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: into the playoff whole scheduling if this game matters to
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: Detroit or if it's just like, well, this game doesn't
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: even matter. We just need to beat Minnesota next week.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: That's the game that matters. This game is irrelevant whether
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: Minnesota wins or loses. So very interesting that this number
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: is three and a half. Just you know, if if
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: the forty nine ers were semi healthy, I would make
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 3: this three. And if they had McCaffrey this season and
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: you know, they weren't so terribly banged up, this would
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: make more sense. But this is a team that's had
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: a year from hell. We've talked about this forts team.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: Everything that's gone wrong has gone wrong, and party's regressed
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: in a bunch of different ways. And you know there's
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: just this even that game against Miami, like they're in
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: that game and they just fall apart in that second half,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: and that's been their m all season, like them. Giving
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 3: up that walk off rushing touchdown to Miami has just
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: been what's plagued them all season. They've just been terrible
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: closing games out. So yeah, this this line. I circled
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: this one and I circled that Chargers game of the
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: two fishiest lines of the week.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: All right, I like that. We're bookending it Chargers and
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: Lion week of fishiness. It's a holiday season. You know
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: what is that? Seven fishes? Is that a big Christmas thing?
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: I'm doing some fish off tonight, going to my Italian
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: cousin's party.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: What do you think you're going to get?
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: What kind of fish?
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I always go for the cod though,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: I'm a cod guy. Go for cod.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fantastic. I know it from The Bear. One of
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: the best episodes of The Bear ever is this seven
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: Fishes episode? All right, Well, we got a pretty good
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: list to look at on Thursday. Will be back on Thursday.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: We want to make sure everyone has a very happy
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: and healthy Christmas. Reminder, if you are participating in the
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must be
• 1:20:43
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• 1:20:48
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• 1:20:51
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• 1:20:55
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• 1:20:58
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• 1:21:00
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• 1:21:03
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  Speaker 1: said on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page, eleven
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: am Eastern will narrow it down with our best bets
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: for week seventeen. We'll get more answers on the fishiness
• 1:21:51
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