Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Wild Card Weekend

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NFL Gambling Recap | Wild Card Weekend · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Today is our wild Card Weekend recap episode, live from
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: The Shepherd and the Knucklehead in beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: I am Chad Milman.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I am joined by my bff, my companion, Mike cam Padre,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: my co host professional Better, Simon Hunter.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, Hello, Chad brother brother.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: How lucky are we a huge weekend hanging with our
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Action Network, our Favorites community, friends from all over the country. Louisiana, Baltimore, Chicago, Georgia,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the Great State of Washington, the family from Delaware who
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: made it even though the super fan of the family,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: David could not make it. Also Simon Hunter's family all
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: the way from South Jersey. Huge thanks by the way,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: and big round of applause for the entire Action Network
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: crew who organized two days of amazing events back to back.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Amazing. Also very special thanks.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Because the Favorites podcast is presented by BET three six ' five.
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• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and president in Colorado, Iowa,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Louisiana, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All Right,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: we've had three of the six wild Card games played
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: so far. We're gonna run through the games. We're gonna
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: do this a little bit differently than we normally do,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: since we didn't have our Phase five for a contest
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: to run through. Let's go in order of Foxhole, Big Balls, etc.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: The games that we know we've cashed so far. By
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: the way, Foxhole Cleveland at Houston, we had Houston plus
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Listen, I know long I've spoken
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: to a lot of people here today, longtime listeners of
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the pot who remember Bob Scucci our bookmaker who was
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the coast with me for a long time at the Orleans.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: In one season, a fan asked Bob to make a
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: special dish at the Orleans.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Bob decided to make it.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Have the chef there make a special dish called battered Flacco.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Last night, I got a text from Bob after the
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: game just said two words, battered Flaco.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Dude. We were on Houston.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson said, imagine a world, Brandon Anderson, one of
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: our great analysts. Imagine a world in which we actually
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: believed we were betting on Joe Flacco as a road
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: favorite in the playoffs.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: Thank god we came to our senses.
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was drinking the kool aid. People know. On
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: Tuesday Show, I was like, God, am I really about
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: to take a rookie head coach and a rookie QB
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: in an zero to three spot historical against a number
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: one defense. But we talked about it, that Cleveland defense
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: on the road. I mean that was one of those
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: where like, what is it five minutes in you had
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: two bombs and you were just like, okay, CJ. At
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: the moment's not too big. That was a good bet.
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: So that's a nice one where like, you're literally anyone
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: that had the Browns. You have Flacco and you're down
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: twenty four whatever, it was, twenty four to ten and
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: a half. You know, you're dead, dead, You're dead.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Like it felt so good to be in this bar
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: yesterday and not be sweating the Texans.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, that was just lovely.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: And by the way, you mentioned the Browns defense, right,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: how bad was the road Brown's defense? The stats got
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: worse after the game yesterday. They had been allowing a
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: little bit less than thirty points per game. After yesterday,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: allowing more than thirty one points per game on the
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: road compared to thirteen point nine points per game alone.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: This team was terrible on the road.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: CJ. Stroud is awesome.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: We don't know who they are playing yet, but here's
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: a stat from Evan Abrams sitting right over there.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Teams who won, let's give it up, teams who won.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: As underdogs in the wildcard round by double digits.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: They are eleven and.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Nine against the spread in the next round the past
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: twenty years ten and seven when listed as the underdog.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: So there is a little bit of a reason to
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: continue to back c J.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: Stroud.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Did you see stuff in the game. We know Cj'll
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: be on the road not as good on the road.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Did you see stuff in the game yesterday that made
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: you feel like, Yeah, I'm confident in CJ. Shroud as
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: a playoff quarterback. I'm beyond thinking about CJ. Stroud as
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: a first year player in the playoffs.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: A little bit. But I also think it's not to
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: overreact to the fact that their defense had what two
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: or three pick sixes.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: So at the same time, we played the numbers, and
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: I told you were at the bar. If it's seven
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: and a half or above, how do we not play Houston.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: We're a sucker for these big dogs, especially a guy
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: like CJ that if he's down, he's not gonna stop
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: fighting Like that back door will be open the whole time.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: And we mean Evan will give us the stats. Lamar
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: is a big favorite. We fade. We failed Lamar when
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: he's a big favorite. So it's all about the number.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: It's if they open this too much respect for CJ
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: and give it four and a half, I'll probably go Baltimore.
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: But if it's anything above seven, how do we not
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: take CJ in that number?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I feel like we're going to talk about
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: this later in the show. We've already gotten a number
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: of books posted a number on Green Bay in Dallas
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: before the game was over.
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: For a while.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: It was right, it was a it was a big number.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to that conversation. But if the
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: books are thinking the same thing about CJ and the
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Texans that they're thinking about green Bay and Jordan Love,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: then it's going to be an interesting conversation speaking of
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: green Bay.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: Because our big balls better the week, we are on
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: a run. Brother.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: The big balls bet of the week was green Bay
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: plus seven and a half at Dallas Sunday night, seven
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: days ago. We are talking about this game and we
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: are seeing easy money. Actually we are seeing this number
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: open and we're like, this makes no sense. Remind everybody
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: what you were thinking last week when you saw this
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: game open. And we love the Packers, we were still
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit hesitant.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, first was we both were like, the books
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: are idiots, Like that was just a bad number they
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: hung and we didn't really understand it. That was the
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: first fear. But the biggest one we talked about was
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: this is the teaser killer, right, This is like the
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: dream snare for all the books. Every Joe Schmoe is
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: walking in there teasing Dallas against Jordan Love. First time
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: started in the playoffs, and we just saw it like
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: the playoffs get so weird, teams fall on their face.
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: And even in this game when it was fourteen nothing,
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: you still in your mind could convince yourself Dallas could
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: come back here once it was twenty nothing, even though
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: the most diehard Dallas betters were like, okay, that was
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: no doubt the worst better of this postseason, like that,
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: they were never in this game from the get go,
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: Green Bay. Jordan Love, what we talked about, total command
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: right now, him on the floor. So it's it's always
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: nice you're on the right side of these ones, but
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: especially when you're giving out a dog. Now, I do
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: have to give you some shit, Chad, oh oh, money
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: line round Robin, Green Bay.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I might have pulled them out.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah what were you thinking?
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: We can talk about that because we're gonna get to
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: the money line, round Robin. And I will tell you
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: right now. I was sitting in the corner over there,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: and I was putting in the final notes for the script,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: and in my head, I believed we had green Bay
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: in the money line round robin, and I even said
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: to Matt Mitchell, I'm like, dude, we got green Bay
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: and Houston in the money line round robin. He's like,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: that's amazing, and I'm like, now, I'm thinking to myself,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, why didn't you know we didn't have He
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: doesn't listen to the podcast, but You're not wrong about
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: the conversation around Dallas and green Bay in this game.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: I swear to god, I was standing with a fan
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: over here who credits us for helping him pay for
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: his wedding.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: By the way, why were we invited? What the fuck?
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: That's what I asked next time?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Next to know And when the Packers went up seven zero,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I said, I said to him, we got this, and
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: he gave me a look he was afraid that I
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: had mushed it. But this Green Bay team was so
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: much better. And shout out to Raybond and Stuckey for
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: the Sunday six pack and they're a great podcast. Yeah,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: they talked a lot about this game. Raybond had this
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: littany of stats of Jordan Love and this Packers team
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: since November, and how good Jordan Love has been incredible,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: and our reason for betting this game was Jordan Love.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: But also we just believe Mike McCarthy is a terrible
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: coach and Matt Lafleur is a really good coach, and
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: we would get our opportunity for Matt Mike McCarthy to
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: get a little bit tight and make bad decisions.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Very good chance. Tomorrow morning. Mike McCarthy is.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: No longer the coach of the Dallas Cowboys, so this
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: one was never in doubt. Good for us, good for
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: big balls two for two on Foxhole and big balls
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Miami and Kansas City. We'll go COOKI through this one.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: This was the hard game for us to handicap. We
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: didn't like the value on Kansas City. We didn't want
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: to bet on Miami. Our strongest play in this game
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: was the under. That's ultimately what we played. The trend
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: of playing unders in these games where it's ten plus
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: mile per hour wins continues to cash, but we just
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: never felt comfortable with the side. Again, nice call by
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Raybon and Mikole Hartman under fourteen and a half receiving yard.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: It's a nice call by Sean Kerner to under twenty
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: one and a half completions.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: This one never a sweat. Felt great about it.
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And just when we don't know what a side
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: to take, what do we like to do. We like
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: to play the totals and we love that under. And
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: even when Evan told us it was like the most
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: public bet of the week we talk in the playoffs.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: I don't really let that scare me off as much. Right,
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: you only have six games. The public and the pros
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: are gonna be aligned on a lot of games, and
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: that was one of those where the books hung too
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: big of a number. Even have forty three and a half.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, people find a lung, can do the math.
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: We still had a touchdown in a field goal to
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: give up, and we'd still cover that under. So those
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: are the dream scenarios, like when you're in the fourth
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: quarter thow scoring games. Miami couldn't do anything that was
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: a good bet, but it is the classic scenario. We
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: wanted to take the Chiefs. We were both scared off
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: of the number, and we see our guy Chris on
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: the other side. It's like, all right, we'll avoid Miami.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: Pass it completely. Yeah. Raybon is apologizing percent winnology.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: The trend of playing unders in games I just mentioned
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: with ten plus mile per hour wins is a massive
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: signal and a casing ticket. Unders are seventy three percent,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent this season, seventy percent the last two seasons,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: not just covering but going under the total by three
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and a half points per game.
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: Crazy.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So like, we talked about this yesterday that forty three
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: was high, and we were still like, just keep betting it,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: keep betting that under.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: It's still a good number for you.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: We said, don't let the move and scare you. Like,
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: even though it was thirty six and a half and
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: I dropped the forty three and a half, we kept saying,
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: it's still too high.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Something to think about for Buffalo tomorrow with the wind
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: and the weather.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: We don't know what it's going to be yet, all right,
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: hold on, swear to God right now.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Before we before we sat down, Matt Mitchell handed me
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: a note card and said, here's a joke. I just
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: want you to read it. I have I honestly, I
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: have no idea what it is.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: I have no idea what it is. So here we go. Open.
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  Speaker 1: All right, quick recap foxhol Houston minus two and a half,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Simon says, the La Rams plus three and a half.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: So we got something on the line tonight. Our executive decision,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Buffalo minus ten. We got something on the line tomorrow,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Big balls, Green Bay plus seven and a half our
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: round robin. Somehow is the LA Rams Houston and Tampa
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Bay not Green Bay, Houston and Tampa Bay. I don't
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: know what happened there, Simon, I don't know who can
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: take responsibility for that. You can, Maybe it's me? Yeah,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: all right, last minute Leans for tonight. We got the
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Rams in Detroit. Clearly we're both.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: On the Rams.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: The line has moved from four down to three and
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: a half, down to three.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Tell us tell everyone.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Why We're not nervous about the Rams at plus three.
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: I'm nervous.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Tell everyone why we still would do it at plus three,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: the indicators we've gotten from the wise guys, how the
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: number has moved, why it hasn't moved in a certain direction.
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, take the plus three. But it's also like, at
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: this point, you're lily if you're literally going to haven't
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: bet a single bed yet. Just wait, wait and see
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: what happens. Right on this first drive. You could easily
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: get plus ten. Right if they go right on and
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: field the Lions and score, this number is gonna move.
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: But I feel like everyone who listened to this got
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: the three and a half, and we talked all week,
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: how kiva number that was. It's been sitting out three
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: all week, so it's it's clearly a big deal. Like
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: the books, they didn't want to take that much Lions money,
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: so they hung the three and a half. It was
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: all Rams money. Now we're getting closer to kickoffs. It
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: really is a ton of Detroit money coming in late here.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: So if the professionals did like it, they were hoping
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: for the two and a half, it never got there,
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: And now they're coming in pretty heavy and taking the
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: three in Detroit. Obviously, the Laporta news him playing it's
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: a big deal for that offense.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Yes, that's big.
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: They said it's limited snaps, which to me just reads
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: of third downs, red zone targets. That's where he'll play again.
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: We don't know how bad his leg is, and if
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: he can move, he's some of the best hands in football,
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: so like to them, if he's able to get there
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: and just catch the ball, that's such a big deal
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: this Lions team. So from my perspective with the Rams,
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: nothing changed. For honestly, like, I still love them plus three,
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: still love their money. I still think they have a
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: great chance to win this game. And the fact that
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: so much money is coming to the Lions see makes
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: it for a little better. Because Evan kept on us
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: all week it was all Rams money and like, no
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: one wants to hear that, especially me and you. We
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: hate betting with the public, but this one just not
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: scared me off. I think the book makers hung a
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: bad line at three and a half four. Hopefully everyone
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: got that number, and it's like, now that it's down
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: to three, this is where it should be. This is
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: a coin flip game wherevers the ball last is gonna
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: win it. But we like the dog in that spot,
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: especially a dog like Stafford who's taking his team to
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: the super Bowl just two years ago in these exact scenarios.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, Evan told us in that run he was
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: three and oh straight up as a dog on that run.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: So obviously we're hoping for a little bit of magic here,
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: and now that Dallas is knocked out, it's just it
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: opens up even more avenues for this Rams seem to
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: make it a little Super Bowl run.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: Well, here's the good news, Evan.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: With some last minute reporting, the number of tickets on
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: the Rams has dropped from seventy four percent to fifty
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: nine percent. So if we want to be on the dog,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: it's getting closer and closer to not being a public dog,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: which is good for us. You mentioned Sam Laporta only
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: playing and then sort of those special packages. Remember Sam Laporta,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: I had forty eight catches for first downs this year's
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: second most on the Lions, so he's an important weapon
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: for them in that third down package. So I love
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the Rams when the Porto wasn't playing. Him playing makes
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: me a little more nervous, but I still like the Rams,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: all right, Buffalo Pittsburgh.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: I made Buffalo. My exec decision is a ten point favorite.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: You did, and I'm.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Sticking by it. I'm not afraid of it. I don't
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: like Mason Rudolf. I don't like Mason Rudolph in the cold.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is a spot where Buffalo, even
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: with a good ground game and a disposition to play
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: more on the ground than they have with Matt Cannada
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: was the offensive coordinator, this plays exactly to their strengths.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: This is a prime spot for the Steelers to just
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: completely crater, especially when they don't have TJ.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: Watt.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: And we've gone through all the stats, like back in
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the Steelers when they don't have TJ. Watt is a
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: losing bet. Like not just losing bet oh ha ha haha.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: It's like I think they're one in something against the
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: spread without Watts.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: So that's a big factor for me and I would
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: like your support.
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, you dug in. I did a coward move.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: I just took the Bill's money line. That was the
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: move where it's like pairing them with the Chief's money line.
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: Come on, no sweat, baby. But I just don't like
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: it because it's a blizzard. But the fact that we're
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: getting it delayed by a day, yeah, it's a big
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: deal with Bills, like that's who's helping here. Where the
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: fact that argument able to pass the ball downfield, that's
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: such a big deal to this Bills team. So as
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: a friend, as a backer of the Bills, I'm hoping
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: chat we wake up to one of the wind has
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: died down, because if it is fifteen twenty prior consistent
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: wins with fifty per hour gust, I mean, that's insane.
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: It's like really hard to get behind taking a ten
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: point favorite in those kind of conditions.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: But Simon, I want you to be my betting buddy.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Just do it.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia, Tampa. We hate this game. We eat everything about
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, I honest to god, I might just
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: go to sleep tomorrow night and not watch this game
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: and not bet this game and just wait until next week.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: So what do you want to say about this game?
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: I would tell people if you want to buy low,
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: is as low as it can truly get on the
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: Eagles at minus two and a half and I will
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: take that number. But if anyone's taking the Bucks three,
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: like you just said, who's to talk them out of it.
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: The Egles have what six straight haven't told us, they
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: haven't covered. It's one of the worst streaks in all football.
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're just so poorly coach right now, so
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: banged up. I totally get the dargon. We're taking Tampa
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: and that's why again we left this one out because
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: it's like we have no real feel for it. So
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: for value wise, I will take the Eagles at minus
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: two and a half, just because they are the better team.
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: But I mean, betting this game, it's the smallest bet
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: of the week. It's just no feel for it.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Green Bay at San Francisco is the only matchup we're
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: sure of right now. We'll quickly go through this one
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: because we haven't had a chance to really do any
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: work on it.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Posted at nine and a half, very early line.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: I think it makes sense given what the Cowboy line
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: was with seven, So you're getting a little bit more value,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: a little more points on San Francisco. The Niners offense
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: superior to the Cowboys in terms of scheme, in terms
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: of dynamic, in terms of tools, coaching far superior to Cowboys.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Those are the reasons why we love the Packers. Also,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys defense, I think is suspect. As we've seen today,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: very possible the public could back the Packers and the
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: wise guys end up blaking the Niners.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: But you have a very quick first instinct on this game.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: I honestly don't like. My first bet was like, I
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: want to take green Bay plus ten, But like talking
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: to a bunch of people here, it's like, is it
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: going to get there? That's the question. It's like, are
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: the pros gonna let it get to ten because that's
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: such a key number. But yeah, the public, this is
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: the bet, Like, why would you not take the forty
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: nine ers in the spot against the team that's just
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: so inflated around Green Bay?
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: I mean you keep saying this green Bay team, I
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: don't know if the books are priced, they're right, like
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: the turnaround they had in the second half of the year,
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: it's just how to keep counting out Ordan Love same
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: reason we took them today. It's just like too big
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: of a spread against the team that doesn't get consistent stops.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: And on the flip side, though, when they do beat
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: teams the fortynin ers this year, they really beat them, right,
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: the only team that backdoored them I think was what
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: the rams on that bs field goal by McVay. Yeah,
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: they're just sky of team this year that they really
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: have killed teams. So I just know the pros that
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: I know that bet it. They're probably gonna end up
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: on Green Bay's the money line, then take the forty
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: nine ers spread like that's how they'll view this one.
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: Where it's like, we know Shanahan's struggles if his team's
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: down ten in the fourth quarter, like I en't talked
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: about they're dead right, he does not come from behind
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: when his team is losing big in the fourth quarter.
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: So it is a bet where it's like I kind
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: of want to play both sides, but I know people
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: are show hate that. So as you sit here right now,
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't touch this number, but it's like it's really
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: tempting if this gets the ten, just to grab the
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: green Bay right or waight when it gets to ten.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: We will dig deeper into that in all the games
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: on the Tuesday episode of The Favorite Simon.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: I know it's playoff time.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Life is full of distractions right now in your world,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: but that's still not a good excuse for forgetting the
• 21:50
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• 21:58
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• 22:06
  Speaker 2: Including pro and college games.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: I'm actually going to open the game Time app right
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• 22:17
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• 22:45
  Speaker 2: All right, before we get out of here, we do.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Want to quickly welcome Sam Mattney, our Favorites contest second
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: place finisher. Sam traveled all the way here from Atlanta, Georgia.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: Let's given to join us live listen.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Here's how we know Sam, is really one of us, right,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Sam was one win away from capturing our forty thousand
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: dollars first place prize in the contest.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: It's been a theme all season.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: You can guess who did Sam need to cover. Let's
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: say it, that's right, the Carolina Panthers. Sam, Sam, congrats,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: congrats on second place. Thanks for joining the favorites. Thanks
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: for flying all the way up here, using all the
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: money you won to battle the elements and come up
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: for a weekend in New York.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: What do you have to say for yourself?
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: No, Chad Simon, thank you guys so much. Beth three
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: six five, thank you so much for putting on this contest.
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: It was an hour to play, and honestly, the Panthers thing.
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: As a Saints fan, it hurts just that much more
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: to have them be the one to screw me.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: It was a tough play.
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: I took them plus five and a half against the
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: Bucks a couple of weeks prior they covered for me.
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: Then I figured why not do it again? And it's
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: a big mistake. The double dip on the Panthers is
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: what signed my fate. But again, super happy to be
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: able to participate, Super happy to capture second place, and
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: it's an r and to be up here celebrating with
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: you all.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Come up, Yeah, let's get my hand.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I feel like the most important thing Sam is I
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: want to make sure you don't blame me and Simon.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: You can blame me for taking the Panthers.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I'm not gonna go up here and blame
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: you guys. Honestly, this week I went back and went
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: through my whole entire season right and looked at who
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: I picked, who I faded, all that stuff. Turns out
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: that was the only time the Panthers screwed me. I
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: had a couple of wins on them earlier in the contest.
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: The big thing that screwed me over actually was the
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: Titans Jags game. I had a JAG's future to win
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: the division, and I was like, I can't pick the
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: Titans in that game, going against my future, and so
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: I picked the wrong four and a half dog, and
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: again that's what sealed my fate. But you know, it
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: was super fun playing.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: It was a blast.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: And again, like I said, I'm super happy to be
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: here with you guys.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Congrats to Sam, nice job, thank me, Thank you very much.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by
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