Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Oscars Gambling Guide

Transcript

The Oscars Gambling Guide · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Network
0:14
Speaker 1: Colin Cowherd's Volume Network. I am Chad. Moment, I'm going
0:19
Speaker 1: to be joined by my bff, my companion, my brother
0:24
Speaker 1: in arms, Mr Simon Hunter. Don't say hello, Yes, I'm
0:28
Speaker 1: because today we are also going to be talking oscars.
0:32
Speaker 1: And one of our many Action Network Oscar experts is
0:38
Speaker 1: Chris Raybon, who goes so deep into the Oscars I
0:41
Speaker 1: actually wonder when he has time to do any other
0:44
Speaker 1: work at all that he does, specifically on our NBA
0:50
Speaker 1: back casts on our nb A live pregame show Heat Check,
0:55
Speaker 1: with all the fantasy stuff he's doing for the NFL, etcetera.
0:59
Speaker 1: It's I don't know, but I will say one of
1:01
Speaker 1: the best podcast we did last year was the In
1:04
Speaker 1: Depth Oscar podcast on Action Network and Rayburn was a
1:08
Speaker 1: part of that along with Colin Wilson and Caroline Smith
1:11
Speaker 1: and Katie rich Creek. It's like they were deep into
1:16
Speaker 1: different categories of music. That's how deep they go. So
1:19
Speaker 1: we'll talk a little bit about oscars. But first, my man, Simon,
1:25
Speaker 1: I have so much to discuss with you, Chad. I
1:29
Speaker 1: have a first question, do you know what today is yes,
1:33
Speaker 1: I know it today is okay, so we got there
1:35
Speaker 1: other way? At what age did chat? Do you wanna?
1:39
Speaker 1: Do you want to tell people like we're recording this
1:43
Speaker 1: on Tuesday for twenty Is that what you're coming to
1:47
Speaker 1: get at. Yeah. I would just love the know Chad
1:50
Speaker 1: the first time chatted one cause you seem the kind
1:52
Speaker 1: of guy that would call the cops on himself and
1:54
Speaker 1: say that he's dying. So I would love to hear
1:56
Speaker 1: the story the first time Chad took a puff of
1:59
Speaker 1: the Devil's lettuce. Gosh, I mean, I'm old, remember, so yeah,
2:05
Speaker 1: for me to tell me about the seventies, it was
2:09
Speaker 1: definitely some point in the eighties, I would venture to say, seven, eight,
2:19
Speaker 1: something like that, And then there was like a good
2:23
Speaker 1: two decades where I didn't bother and then edibles became
2:29
Speaker 1: much more prevalent and much more accessible. So, uh, that
2:36
Speaker 1: became something that you know, I would partake in more often.
2:41
Speaker 1: Oh wow, look at you modern man. Yeah. Keep it
2:44
Speaker 1: away from your kids, though, guys, that's it's on the
2:46
Speaker 1: package of edibles. Keep away from your kids. Listen, my
2:50
Speaker 1: kids are teenagers. I don't want to know. I don't
2:54
Speaker 1: need to know. We've all got our own lives to live.
2:56
Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying, Um, are you going to
3:00
Speaker 1: celebrate all day today? Is that what you're telling me? No,
3:03
Speaker 1: I'm too old for that. You know what I'm gonna
3:05
Speaker 1: celebrate to that, I'm gonna buy more Doge Point. That's
3:07
Speaker 1: how I'm gonna do today. How much Doge point have
3:10
Speaker 1: you bought since Doge Day? I could retire right now
3:13
Speaker 1: and live happily. Shut up. No, I I put way
3:18
Speaker 1: more than a normal person in because I love that.
3:20
Speaker 1: It was a meme. And I told you my rule
3:23
Speaker 1: of Thumber investing is if Elon Musk tweets about it,
3:26
Speaker 1: you put a thousand dollars into it. So I've put
3:29
Speaker 1: a decent amount of the douche. What's the trading out today?
3:34
Speaker 1: Before he came on, it was just above thirty nine cents,
3:38
Speaker 1: and yesterday it was at like forty. But it would
3:40
Speaker 1: have been like at fractions of a penny before, right, Yeah, yeah, yeah, Yeah.
3:44
Speaker 1: The future is very weird, Chad. The future is unbelievably weird.
3:48
Speaker 1: I have now bought Bitcoin and ethereum. Those are my
3:53
Speaker 1: two crypto holdings. Super excited about it. Pretty soon China
3:57
Speaker 1: is going to be creating a national digital and see
4:01
Speaker 1: I read that this morning. A lot of happened, a
4:04
Speaker 1: lot happening in the speculative markets, and we'll get to
4:07
Speaker 1: that and many many more things. As you noticed, I
4:11
Speaker 1: was away last week, as we talked about before I
4:13
Speaker 1: came on, I was touring colleges with my older son,
4:16
Speaker 1: which was very exciting. I also ventured out into the world.
4:19
Speaker 1: I went to the Celtics Warriors game on Saturday night.
4:22
Speaker 1: It was amazing regular season game of the year. But
4:26
Speaker 1: more importantly, Simon, while I was away, we had an
4:31
Speaker 1: Action Network all hands Action Network town hall. At these
4:35
Speaker 1: town halls, every new employee that have been higher since
4:39
Speaker 1: the last town hall will introduce themselves with a game
4:42
Speaker 1: that we call to Truths and a Lie. Pretty standard game.
4:46
Speaker 1: A lot of companies use it. Introduce people, get them
4:49
Speaker 1: loosening up, you know, create some more that kind of stuff. Uh.
4:53
Speaker 1: What happens is the new employee has to put out
4:57
Speaker 1: three comments and their new colleagues have to guess which
5:01
Speaker 1: of the three comments is a lie. So this week, Simon,
5:05
Speaker 1: while I was away, unfortunately, you were introduced, uh, and
5:10
Speaker 1: you had three amazing notes. I want you to tell
5:16
Speaker 1: the group. Uh, Matt Mitchell is on. Raybond is waiting
5:20
Speaker 1: in the wings. We have two members of Team Volume,
5:24
Speaker 1: uh in Connor, David's informer Action Network employee now onto
5:29
Speaker 1: bigger and better things at Volume, and uh Rory from Volume. So, um,
5:35
Speaker 1: I want you to give your three comments, and I
5:39
Speaker 1: guess Raybond and Mitchell you can't guess because you were
5:41
Speaker 1: in the meeting, So I'll try to guess, but please
5:44
Speaker 1: give your comments. I thought the rule of all hands
5:46
Speaker 1: meeting was you don't talk about what happens in all
5:48
Speaker 1: hands meeting. You're a terrible employee. Guy, I can do
5:51
Speaker 1: whatever I fucking Wand there was three you have to
5:55
Speaker 1: give three things, my three things where I had a
5:57
Speaker 1: point with that cheering. I've been bit by a shaw ark,
6:01
Speaker 1: and I go skydiving every weekend. Well, obviously you don't
6:05
Speaker 1: go skydiving every weekend, but I will. I will. That
6:09
Speaker 1: is gonna be my guess. Uh. Do we want Rory
6:13
Speaker 1: and Connor to weigh in as as people who don't
6:16
Speaker 1: know anything yet go and skydiving too? For sure? Yeah?
6:20
Speaker 1: I mean, for sake of being contrarian, I'm going to
6:22
Speaker 1: fade the public. I'm gonna say, you've never been written
6:24
Speaker 1: by a shark. That's yeah. So I did have a
6:26
Speaker 1: drink with Ed Sheering. I wish it was an epic
6:29
Speaker 1: cool story about me and the night out of Ed,
6:31
Speaker 1: but it was a classic Me and my cousin met
6:33
Speaker 1: up with his buddy who went to college with Ed
6:36
Speaker 1: Shearing's best friend. We had maybe true drinks and before
6:39
Speaker 1: we and him left to go get dinner together. So
6:41
Speaker 1: I hung out of them from maybe an hour and
6:43
Speaker 1: a half. Was before he was famous two, but I
6:46
Speaker 1: literally talked to the guy for maybe two minutes. Um.
6:49
Speaker 1: And then I don't even know, maybe it's two three
6:51
Speaker 1: years later. I was like, the biggest star in the world. So,
6:54
Speaker 1: but what have you guys? Had two drinks and you
6:59
Speaker 1: were with him for an hour and a half. What
7:00
Speaker 1: did you guys talk about? Um? I mean, dude, it's
7:05
Speaker 1: life so like because I was American, I remember he
7:07
Speaker 1: was asking me, um, he was asking about n B
7:10
Speaker 1: A And at the time it was the Miami heat. Um.
7:14
Speaker 1: Someone was like, Eddie sings and I was like, this
7:17
Speaker 1: little ginger does not singing. He goes, I swear he sings,
7:20
Speaker 1: and he started singing. They're like, oh, you know how
7:23
Speaker 1: he sings, isn't the magical And I was like, oh
7:25
Speaker 1: my god, this is incredible. Um. But again I didn't
7:29
Speaker 1: know who he was, Like like they told me he
7:32
Speaker 1: was big in England, like my cousin did. He was
7:34
Speaker 1: like that guy is gonna be huge in England. Um,
7:37
Speaker 1: but I didn't really know who he was. So I
7:39
Speaker 1: if I would have known it was ed Shearon who
7:41
Speaker 1: he is now, dude, I would have hung it. I
7:42
Speaker 1: would have tried to hang out in for the whole week.
7:44
Speaker 1: But like it was just one of those like the path.
7:46
Speaker 1: We had a beer and then I was going to
7:48
Speaker 1: dinner anyway, so it was like not one of those
7:50
Speaker 1: memorable nights out. Uh. You would have had him signed
7:53
Speaker 1: your Pikachu card and then you can double down on
7:55
Speaker 1: your memorabilia. Uh. If it's one forty three in the
7:59
Speaker 1: afternoon were it is right now, there's probably an Edge
8:01
Speaker 1: Shearing song on and he is probably making more than
8:05
Speaker 1: you have invested in dose coin this very hour. All right,
8:10
Speaker 1: you had a plant with Ed Sharing. What about getting
8:13
Speaker 1: bitten by a shard? Uh? So afterre I mean during
8:17
Speaker 1: my glory to this high school, that was our thing
8:18
Speaker 1: with surfing, So you booze and then you wake up
8:21
Speaker 1: and go get and go surf. But in New Jersey
8:24
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of waves, so half the time
8:25
Speaker 1: you would just go out there and just hang on
8:26
Speaker 1: your surfboard. So I was laying on my surfboard, I
8:29
Speaker 1: had my arms hanging off like just being a bum,
8:32
Speaker 1: like talking to my buddy, and then all of a sudden,
8:35
Speaker 1: just shooting pain in my hand and I lifted out
8:37
Speaker 1: of the water and it's just not even that big,
8:39
Speaker 1: it's maybe a foot long, but it's a baby shark.
8:42
Speaker 1: And he was like, oh, He's like dude, he's like,
8:45
Speaker 1: he's like, don't don't, don't rip it out. It's gonna
8:47
Speaker 1: rip your hand off. So I just had to stand
8:48
Speaker 1: there holding it like that, and he came over and
8:51
Speaker 1: just like pride its mouth open and like and finally
8:53
Speaker 1: just let go, but no real scarring, like there's indense,
8:57
Speaker 1: but it happened. I was seventeen, and I probably told
9:00
Speaker 1: every check for the rest of the summer. I was
9:02
Speaker 1: a shark attack survivor, even though it was a baby shark.
9:06
Speaker 1: So you pulled your hand out of the water and
9:08
Speaker 1: was holding the shark up in like in your hand.
9:12
Speaker 1: It was holding onto your hand. I was just some
9:15
Speaker 1: pure shock, Like it was one of those where like
9:17
Speaker 1: you know, people either freak outs are flailing. I pulled
9:19
Speaker 1: it out, and like it took me about a minute
9:21
Speaker 1: to process it because I'm just like looking at this
9:23
Speaker 1: thing on my hand, and it looks so alien because
9:26
Speaker 1: like it's not like you think of a shark. It's like, uh,
9:30
Speaker 1: it was like slimy and oozy. It was just like
9:32
Speaker 1: really weird the body shape. And I was like, what
9:34
Speaker 1: is happening right now because I was still like, you know,
9:37
Speaker 1: out of it, hungover, and my buddy so calmly swung
9:40
Speaker 1: like swam over and he was like he's like, oh yeah, man,
9:42
Speaker 1: no problem, like as if it happens every day to then,
9:44
Speaker 1: and he just took it off my hand. But at
9:46
Speaker 1: the time I was freaking out because I you know,
9:50
Speaker 1: not that I thought I was gonna lose my hand,
9:51
Speaker 1: but at the time, I was like, this thing is
9:52
Speaker 1: about to take my pinkye off. So it was definitely
9:54
Speaker 1: scary in the moment. Listen, as someone who's broken his pinky,
9:58
Speaker 1: you had to go through rehab, you lose it, it's
10:00
Speaker 1: no big deal, all right, So clearly, uh, you don't
10:03
Speaker 1: go sky daving every weekend. No, I hate heights. I
10:07
Speaker 1: am terrified heights even like the basics of a going
10:10
Speaker 1: up on the ladder to put the Christmas lights up.
10:11
Speaker 1: I'm happy to pay someone wait too much wanting to
10:14
Speaker 1: do that, because that's how scared of heights, saying all right,
10:16
Speaker 1: we gotta get to Raybon. And I think it's interesting
10:18
Speaker 1: that Raybon is on today. Chris Raybon one of our many,
10:22
Speaker 1: many bright talents at Action Network, covering the NFL, covering
10:28
Speaker 1: the NBA, covering the oscars. Look. This morning, I went
10:31
Speaker 1: to get my younger kid at seven and welcome up
10:33
Speaker 1: for school. As soon as I walked out of his room,
10:35
Speaker 1: he yelled, Dad, wait. Then he read to me a
10:39
Speaker 1: tweet that he saw, because the first thing he does
10:41
Speaker 1: in the morning is check out the Twitter. And it
10:44
Speaker 1: was a report that Jordan's Love is being traded to
10:50
Speaker 1: the Patriots. It was like a I don't know if
10:52
Speaker 1: it was true or not. It was a piece of
10:55
Speaker 1: paper that said, this is a early early draft of
11:01
Speaker 1: a draft day proposed draft day trade for Jordan's Love
11:04
Speaker 1: to the Patriots. What do people think of that? It's
11:07
Speaker 1: definitely out there, but it just looked so silly when
11:09
Speaker 1: you look at the Packers and they went to the
11:11
Speaker 1: NFC Championship game last year, and maybe if they had
11:15
Speaker 1: one more receiver that they drafted in that with that
11:17
Speaker 1: Jordan Love pick, he would have gotten open and Aaron
11:20
Speaker 1: Rodgers wouldn't have decided to run the ball on that.
11:23
Speaker 1: You know, it was the third or fourth and goal,
11:25
Speaker 1: and he would have found that receiver and Tom Brady
11:27
Speaker 1: wouldn't have another ring. So, I mean, it just didn't
11:31
Speaker 1: reminder that the Packers screwed up last year. The Patriots,
11:33
Speaker 1: I mean, they're just they're they're just desperate. I mean,
11:36
Speaker 1: they don't have a quarterback, doesn't count. Simon, what would
11:40
Speaker 1: you think of a trade like that. I guess for
11:42
Speaker 1: the upside, i'd like it, But it's all about what
11:44
Speaker 1: you're giving up. I mean, they spent our first round pick,
11:45
Speaker 1: like he just said, I wasted first round pick on
11:47
Speaker 1: that guy when they had so many players on the
11:49
Speaker 1: board to help Rogers with. So I don't believe it.
11:52
Speaker 1: I think that teams, when they screw up like that,
11:55
Speaker 1: they just ride out to screw up. So to me,
11:58
Speaker 1: they're going to ride out another year of Rogers and
12:00
Speaker 1: see what he can do. And if they just get
12:01
Speaker 1: a lilist the slightest indication that there's the decline, they're
12:05
Speaker 1: gonna get rid of them. So I don't I can't
12:07
Speaker 1: see them just moving them after one year sitting on
12:09
Speaker 1: the bench. Great movement of Patriots though, because like you know,
12:13
Speaker 1: if they try to draft like an offensive player with
12:15
Speaker 1: an early draft kick, they're gonna screw it up anyway.
12:17
Speaker 1: It's gonna be like Kio Harry or like like they
12:20
Speaker 1: it's never worked out for them when they're draft, Like
12:22
Speaker 1: they passed on what is it WAMR Jackson and drafted
12:25
Speaker 1: Tony Michelle, who was like, okay, great, you know he's
12:28
Speaker 1: running back. But they always screw up these skill position
12:30
Speaker 1: picks in the draft, so it probably wouldn't be too
12:33
Speaker 1: bad for New England. All right, are you guys ready?
12:36
Speaker 1: Let's talk some oscars, because here's what I want to do, Raybon.
12:41
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the big categories like Best Picture,
12:45
Speaker 1: Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Supporting Actors, supporting Actress.
12:51
Speaker 1: Then I want you to give me like your one.
12:55
Speaker 1: No one's paying attention to this. I've done all the research.
12:59
Speaker 1: I don't care how popular of category it is lock.
13:02
Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying? All right? Got that? Yeah,
13:08
Speaker 1: no such things, but I would do my best. You're
13:11
Speaker 1: gonna do your best with with you there are like
13:15
Speaker 1: you know, it's a lock that you're a charming ray
13:19
Speaker 1: of sunshine. I appreciate that. I feel like nobody's vibing
13:22
Speaker 1: with me today. All right, well are you high? Because
13:25
Speaker 1: we are not just kidding? Hasn't happened to me yet
13:29
Speaker 1: today only it's only one fifty in the afternoon. Here
13:33
Speaker 1: we go, best picture. Here's what's crazy about this year.
13:37
Speaker 1: I've seemed like three of these movies. Nomad Land that's
13:40
Speaker 1: the one with Francis McDormand about her nomad like existence
13:45
Speaker 1: in the American West. The Trial of the Chicago Seven,
13:49
Speaker 1: which is the Aaron Sorkin movie that stars uh Sasha
13:53
Speaker 1: Baron Cone and it's about um, the people who were
14:01
Speaker 1: charged with starting a riot in Chicago in Manari. I
14:07
Speaker 1: don't know Manari later, but I don't know it Manory
14:11
Speaker 1: it's about It's about this uh Asian couple family that
14:16
Speaker 1: comes over and they're trying to build, you know, the
14:17
Speaker 1: American dream, and they suffer through a lot of different
14:20
Speaker 1: um hardship, along the Way. Um, but it's a really
14:24
Speaker 1: good movie. All right, Promising Young Woman? What is that? Simon?
14:32
Speaker 1: Have you seen it? I it's on the list, Like
14:37
Speaker 1: I watched I try to get watch these movies to
14:39
Speaker 1: catch up to this thing that was the one that
14:41
Speaker 1: didn't make the cut because I literally watched No Mainland.
14:43
Speaker 1: I'm like, all right, I don't know if I'm the
14:45
Speaker 1: right head space to go back to back on these. Probably.
14:48
Speaker 1: Young Woman is like the controversial movie of this Oscar season.
14:53
Speaker 1: I guess you could say it's about Terry Mulligan stars
14:57
Speaker 1: as a woman who essentially goes to clubs and and
15:03
Speaker 1: party spots and pretends to be drunk so she can
15:07
Speaker 1: trick guys into trying to sexually, um, you know, come
15:14
Speaker 1: on to her different. She gets too, wets to get
15:16
Speaker 1: two different levels before she kind of wakes up and
15:19
Speaker 1: it's like, what the hell are you doing? And then um,
15:22
Speaker 1: but but we kind of find out the reason why
15:24
Speaker 1: she's doing this, um is due to something that happening
15:27
Speaker 1: in the past. And then she goes on kind of
15:30
Speaker 1: a whole without spoiling it, you know, a whole kind
15:33
Speaker 1: of dirty to to avenge some to pass demons and
15:37
Speaker 1: it gets it gets pretty crazy, but it's it's it's
15:39
Speaker 1: a very very controversial content. I guess you could say.
15:44
Speaker 1: So that's that's kind of the controversial movie of the year.
15:47
Speaker 1: That's what people need to know. Um, that could affect voters.
15:50
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna check that one out for it's good.
15:53
Speaker 1: It's really good. Mink I saw that was about Herman Mankewitz,
15:57
Speaker 1: who wrote the movie Citizen Kane uh uh celebrated, celebrated.
16:02
Speaker 1: Movie felt a little bit inside Hollywood to me. Uh,
16:08
Speaker 1: I thought it was really good, but it was surprised
16:10
Speaker 1: that it got as many nominations as it did. Judas
16:14
Speaker 1: and The Black Messiah. Um, that is also about uh
16:20
Speaker 1: what is that about again? If the same thing is
16:22
Speaker 1: it's like similar to The Travelers Chicira Seven's about Fred
16:25
Speaker 1: Hampton and that's right, black Panthers in the Yeah, so same,
16:28
Speaker 1: that's the same kind of subject matter, that's right. And
16:31
Speaker 1: then The Sound of Metal that's my favorite movie of
16:33
Speaker 1: the year. Like if you haven't seen that movie, it's
16:36
Speaker 1: super dark. It's about a guy who's like a metal
16:39
Speaker 1: band drummer and he goes death. It's not a feel
16:41
Speaker 1: good movie at all, Like it's not one of those
16:43
Speaker 1: where again you feel good. It's literally one of these
16:45
Speaker 1: that kind of stay with you for a couple of days,
16:47
Speaker 1: if you like. Think back on which I like for
16:49
Speaker 1: movies because it's it's a deep movie, so it actually
16:53
Speaker 1: brings me to like you just said, with these oscars, uh,
16:57
Speaker 1: we've never had one like this where it's like, you know,
17:00
Speaker 1: like we can say people went to the movies, Chad.
17:02
Speaker 1: Chad's here saying he didn't see me, like a lot
17:03
Speaker 1: of us are in this boat where we haven't seen
17:05
Speaker 1: a lot of these movies. For me, the best film
17:08
Speaker 1: editing of Oscar, these odds are foun on DraftKings. Sound
17:12
Speaker 1: of Metal right now is the favorite at minus and
17:15
Speaker 1: then Trial of the Chicago Seven is minus one ten.
17:18
Speaker 1: I love Sound of Medal so much, and the editing
17:21
Speaker 1: in this movie is insane, Like I don't want to
17:22
Speaker 1: ruin it again for people, but it's very unique the
17:24
Speaker 1: way they did that movie. I feel like it's a
17:27
Speaker 1: lock to win Best Film Editing at minus. Sign that
17:31
Speaker 1: is already coming in here, and you know, Shark Attack
17:34
Speaker 1: in my order. There's one more movie on the list,
17:36
Speaker 1: The Father. I don't need any help from anyone. All
17:42
Speaker 1: that want is for them to fuck off. It looks
17:45
Speaker 1: like it's at plus ten thousand with an implied probability
17:48
Speaker 1: of one. Thank god you got that in chest. I
17:51
Speaker 1: want to be thorough. I want people to know, like
17:53
Speaker 1: I have seen it getting some love in different categories,
17:56
Speaker 1: and I think that one actually has some like sleep
17:58
Speaker 1: repeal just not maybe not terrly in best Picture, but um,
18:01
Speaker 1: just because it was one of the last ones to
18:03
Speaker 1: come out, I think, um, it's not always reflected in
18:06
Speaker 1: the odds, is like some of the ones that have
18:08
Speaker 1: been out for longer. Alright, So Raybond, go ahead and
18:11
Speaker 1: answer what Simon's question was best Film editing. That was
18:15
Speaker 1: one of the ones, like when you said, you know,
18:16
Speaker 1: kind of mention of random category, Chad. I was looking
18:19
Speaker 1: at that one too, because it's one of these ones
18:21
Speaker 1: where I like to look at gold Derby, which is
18:23
Speaker 1: you know, they you have experts that kind of do
18:25
Speaker 1: this every year and they pretty Bethan predicting the winners.
18:29
Speaker 1: It's kind of like looking where the sharp money is going. Uh,
18:32
Speaker 1: and they have sound of Metal just over half of
18:36
Speaker 1: the experts, so it's still it is a you know,
18:38
Speaker 1: close call, but um, you know it's more than the
18:41
Speaker 1: implied odds, which you know are essentially giving it like
18:44
Speaker 1: a fifty fifty shot with with with what what is
18:49
Speaker 1: what is the other one? Trial? Yeah? And I mean
18:54
Speaker 1: I don't know. I felt like Trial to Chicago seven
18:56
Speaker 1: has just been a widow overrated this Home Oscar season.
19:00
Speaker 1: So I don't know how to treat it, Like some
19:01
Speaker 1: people think it's gonna win Best Picture, and I just
19:04
Speaker 1: see it kind of interspersed through all like as a
19:06
Speaker 1: contender in almost every category, and it's hard to get
19:10
Speaker 1: to read truly on if that what's really going to
19:14
Speaker 1: be the case or's just because it was it kind
19:16
Speaker 1: of it's the bill for the for the longest this season.
19:18
Speaker 1: So um yeah, I think there's value definitely on on
19:21
Speaker 1: Sounded Metal. That's usually that like the editing category is
19:25
Speaker 1: usually one where you know, something that doesn't necessarily win
19:29
Speaker 1: a Best Picture or when a bunch of awards could
19:32
Speaker 1: still win in that category. So yeah, I like, uh,
19:35
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Sound It's interesting that you say that
19:37
Speaker 1: about the Trial of the Chicago seven. Um, I do
19:40
Speaker 1: want to get the Best Picture because that's obviously the headliner. Uh.
19:45
Speaker 1: I Admittedly I only saw three of the ten movies
19:49
Speaker 1: or however many movies are on this list nine movies.
19:51
Speaker 1: I saw Nomad Land Chicago seven. I saw mank Um
19:57
Speaker 1: and Chicago seven. I'm an Aaron sork In a file.
20:01
Speaker 1: I still watched The West Wing. I'm going through the
20:04
Speaker 1: entire series with my older kid. Now. You know, I
20:07
Speaker 1: would hate watch The news Room. Uh. And like I'll
20:12
Speaker 1: still watch American President. I'll still watch like every movie
20:16
Speaker 1: that he's made, you know, I want to see, um,
20:19
Speaker 1: every show that he's done, I want to watch. I
20:22
Speaker 1: watched this. I found it kind of long, kind of boring,
20:26
Speaker 1: kind of predictable. Um. I didn't feel it was very dramatic.
20:31
Speaker 1: I felt the way he shot it and like the
20:32
Speaker 1: way it looked as a director. It looked almost like
20:35
Speaker 1: an after school special. It didn't feel like gritty Chicago.
20:40
Speaker 1: It felt like what you showed in an NBC sort
20:44
Speaker 1: of uh, you know, primetime movie of the week. That's
20:48
Speaker 1: how it looked to me. I don't know why it's
20:50
Speaker 1: getting so much love. Am I wrong, Raybon Simon, anyone?
20:55
Speaker 1: I just I just feel like it kind of fit
20:57
Speaker 1: the bill. You know, it had you know, it had
20:59
Speaker 1: staff for Baron Cohen, who's also nominated for another movie,
21:02
Speaker 1: So you know, it kind of had not the actor
21:06
Speaker 1: out you had Aaron Sorkin. It's about you know something,
21:10
Speaker 1: uh that's somewhat politically relevant even now. I've had some
21:15
Speaker 1: creative minds in it. Pretty large cast. Um, you know
21:18
Speaker 1: it kind of it's like I said, it touched on
21:20
Speaker 1: some of the subject matter of of Judas in the
21:23
Speaker 1: Black Massiah. So I just felt like it it kind
21:26
Speaker 1: of captured the whole season maybe, and I think that's
21:30
Speaker 1: why it's kind of been been a front runner. But
21:32
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's really like I'm I'm kind
21:35
Speaker 1: of with you. I don't know if it's necessarily just
21:36
Speaker 1: as deserving as some of the other movies. I just
21:40
Speaker 1: think it kind of captures this season well, and for
21:42
Speaker 1: somebody that hasn't seen all of the movies, and what's
21:45
Speaker 1: even some of the critics and people that vote don't
21:47
Speaker 1: necessarily see all the movies, um or and people that
21:50
Speaker 1: make the odds definitely don't. So um, I think that's
21:53
Speaker 1: kind of where we're at with with that movie. Yeah,
21:56
Speaker 1: it's it's definitely like you just said, it's gonna be
21:59
Speaker 1: so interesting. What's gonna app these betting everything like we'll
22:03
Speaker 1: talk about Best Picture. I mean, just as a joke
22:06
Speaker 1: to me, best picture should be contagious. It's incredible how
22:10
Speaker 1: the movie contagions some time that you're perfectly but I
22:13
Speaker 1: know you guys want to dive in the Best Picture.
22:15
Speaker 1: I would love to hear your taking all this because
22:17
Speaker 1: it's so interesting how Normanland is overwhelming favorite in a
22:20
Speaker 1: year that how how are they such a huge favorite
22:24
Speaker 1: compared to all these other movies. Bro, When when I
22:26
Speaker 1: saw Nomad Land, my first stuff for Nomad Wanding Best
22:29
Speaker 1: Picture was like the first two editors like no, like
22:32
Speaker 1: I don't. I just didn't get it. Like when I
22:36
Speaker 1: saw a Nomad Wan, I thought like Francis McDorman, I
22:39
Speaker 1: was like, Okay, she could win Best Actress because she
22:42
Speaker 1: was the whole movie like this was. And you know
22:45
Speaker 1: they're saying, Choe Jao, the director is like, she's like
22:48
Speaker 1: the biggest lock of you know, the Steven which he's
22:51
Speaker 1: always gotta be careful, because I think that was Sam
22:53
Speaker 1: Mendez last year for for nineteen seventeen and he ended
22:56
Speaker 1: up losing to the director of Parasite, which also won
23:01
Speaker 1: Best Picture. So I think you gotta that that could
23:03
Speaker 1: be kind of a big upset category. But for me,
23:05
Speaker 1: I just started didn't have enough of a plot, which
23:07
Speaker 1: was purposeful because it's supposed to make you feel like
23:09
Speaker 1: a nomad. But I just didn't think it was the
23:11
Speaker 1: best picture. Um. I didn't think it was best picture
23:14
Speaker 1: material too. For me personally, I've seen all the movies
23:17
Speaker 1: except UM I did. I did not see The Father,
23:21
Speaker 1: so again that could be that could and sounded metal,
23:24
Speaker 1: so the two UM and I know it sounded metals
23:28
Speaker 1: about like I saw a bunch of trailers, so I
23:29
Speaker 1: do want to see it, but just fu disclosure, I
23:31
Speaker 1: haven't seen Thoes, so I've seen the other six. Uh.
23:35
Speaker 1: I would just kind of not looking in. In the odds,
23:38
Speaker 1: I would have said Manory or Promising Young Women like
23:42
Speaker 1: those would have been the two UM that I would
23:45
Speaker 1: have picked. Now on gold Derby, there's been twenty seven
23:48
Speaker 1: expert votes and they they changed their votes right up
23:50
Speaker 1: to the time, so they may change a widow again.
23:53
Speaker 1: But UM Manory and Promising Young Women both do have votes,
23:57
Speaker 1: so they Manory has three of twenty seven and Promising
23:59
Speaker 1: Young one and has one UM since the preferential ballot,
24:03
Speaker 1: remember like the last ten years or so kind of
24:05
Speaker 1: eleven years. I think it was twenty nine. Um, there's
24:07
Speaker 1: been a preferential ballot, which means you rank each picture.
24:10
Speaker 1: It's unlike the other categories the way they vote. So
24:13
Speaker 1: no mad Land, it's gonna get a lot of number
24:16
Speaker 1: one votes. But like like you said, Simon, it's like
24:20
Speaker 1: it's kind of it's not it's not like a lock,
24:23
Speaker 1: so it might not get a lot of number two
24:25
Speaker 1: and threes. And what we've seen almost every year, if
24:28
Speaker 1: you look back at like the favorite and then you
24:32
Speaker 1: look at who actually one best picture, you see the
24:34
Speaker 1: number two, the number three of the number like somewhere
24:36
Speaker 1: in that that next year, but not the favorite winning
24:39
Speaker 1: Like last year, Parasite was like the number two. Uh
24:43
Speaker 1: it was Moonlight was like the number three a couple
24:46
Speaker 1: of years ago. Uh, the Shape of Water was like
24:49
Speaker 1: number two. Like, so I think you have to consider
24:52
Speaker 1: Manory and promising young Woman and then try out of
24:55
Speaker 1: Chicago seven as well, just because it's still in that conversation.
24:59
Speaker 1: I don't know it's deserving, but I would say it's
25:02
Speaker 1: the mustade. No mad Win is a mustad at this
25:05
Speaker 1: point because we just haven't seen that favorite win. Uh.
25:08
Speaker 1: And I think it's overrated. Just anyway. So you have
25:12
Speaker 1: Manory at fourteen one, you have Promising Young Woman at
25:16
Speaker 1: seventeen to one, and then you have Trial to Chicago
25:18
Speaker 1: seven at six to one. I think you can kind
25:20
Speaker 1: of you can kind of split your your bet among
25:24
Speaker 1: those three. And as long as no Mad Wand doesn't
25:27
Speaker 1: win and it's minus six seventy, um, you should be
25:30
Speaker 1: profitable because it should be one of those four coming
25:34
Speaker 1: out of the gate hot fading favorite in Best Picture,
25:39
Speaker 1: Best Picture. You just have to like gets look back,
25:41
Speaker 1: just go on golderb and just look back year by year,
25:44
Speaker 1: because they'll show you the favorite, which is also the
25:46
Speaker 1: betting favorite, which will be the expert favorite to almost
25:49
Speaker 1: every year it just doesn't win. It just doesn't happen anymore.
25:52
Speaker 1: It's and it's it's because of that preferential bout right,
25:55
Speaker 1: And you just exactly what I'm trying to say, Like,
25:57
Speaker 1: that's it's so funny how Hollywood hypes up these things.
25:59
Speaker 1: Were like, well, and no, man, there's only three three
26:02
Speaker 1: actors in the whole movie. Everyone else are just real
26:04
Speaker 1: people in this movie. And it's like, yeah, that's great,
26:07
Speaker 1: but you can tell when you watch that movie. It's not,
26:09
Speaker 1: you know, the greatest movie. So I love what your
26:12
Speaker 1: heads I I think there's really good value right now
26:15
Speaker 1: and picking one of these upsets and let me and
26:17
Speaker 1: then we add to that real quick A big reason
26:21
Speaker 1: No bad Land is the favorite. And you know, precursors
26:24
Speaker 1: right now, remember the nineteen seventeen last year, precursors made
26:29
Speaker 1: it a favorite. Well was the thing that kind of
26:31
Speaker 1: kicked that off. The Golden Globes. Golden Globes again this year.
26:35
Speaker 1: You know, they had their ceremony before most other uh
26:39
Speaker 1: you know, awards shows had their ceremony. Everyone kind of
26:41
Speaker 1: looked at the Golden Globes like, all right, how are
26:42
Speaker 1: they gonna do it during the pandemic and then everyone
26:44
Speaker 1: went from there, So nomad when I want at the
26:46
Speaker 1: Golden votes. But remember the Golden Globes are like nineties people,
26:51
Speaker 1: the Actor, the Lake, you know, a couple of weeks
26:53
Speaker 1: with thousands, you know, so it's you're going from a
26:56
Speaker 1: small sample and a lot of variants to you know,
27:00
Speaker 1: a much larger sample that's not gonna behave necessarily like
27:03
Speaker 1: those voters. And it's a different balloting system. And so
27:07
Speaker 1: just like you had nineteen seventeen. Well, you know they
27:09
Speaker 1: wanted at the globes and then you know that had
27:10
Speaker 1: some other precursors. Obviously no medal lands in that same boat.
27:13
Speaker 1: And I think that's what a lot of times you see,
27:15
Speaker 1: it's just those whatever kind of sets the bar for
27:18
Speaker 1: the Oscar season, you just kind of the you know,
27:21
Speaker 1: if you don't expert predicted, this isn't like there's not
27:23
Speaker 1: like huge money on this the way there is on
27:25
Speaker 1: like a football game, where the market is just gonna
27:27
Speaker 1: even add out, you know, like it's if theyf they
27:30
Speaker 1: if the books come out with a bad line for
27:32
Speaker 1: the super Bowl in those two weeks, you best believe
27:34
Speaker 1: the headline is gonna become efficient because it's gonna get hammered.
27:38
Speaker 1: It's not like that in the in the Oscars market,
27:40
Speaker 1: it's like whatever kind of sets that bar, it's just
27:43
Speaker 1: gonna go. It's just gonna keep going, even if it's
27:45
Speaker 1: kind of it's not necessarily correct. So um, the director
27:53
Speaker 1: of Nomad Land, Chloe jaw is that minus three thirty
28:02
Speaker 1: three thousand, the implied probability on her is nine seven
28:09
Speaker 1: point one percent. Then you've got David Fincher, Lee, Isaac
28:12
Speaker 1: Chung Emerald Finelli and uh Fennel and Thomas Vinterberg. So
28:21
Speaker 1: this chat you gotta say that, you gotta say the
28:24
Speaker 1: movies for these people, because David Fincher did make Uh Lee,
28:31
Speaker 1: Isaac Chung did Manory, Emerald Finell did Promising Young Woman,
28:36
Speaker 1: and Thomas Vinterberg did. Another round, Um, is this one
28:43
Speaker 1: where you fade as well? Because uh, Chloe Jah is
28:47
Speaker 1: such a heavy, heavy favorite in my opinion, absolutely, because
28:53
Speaker 1: the most number one, you're not betting on Chloe Jao
28:56
Speaker 1: if you think she's gonna win, You're not betting minus
29:00
Speaker 1: three thousand, three hundred and thirty five, right, You're just
29:02
Speaker 1: not going to touch the category. But as I mentioned,
29:05
Speaker 1: this is these are the others are very similar to
29:09
Speaker 1: Sam Mendez who last year nineteen seventeen was the favorite.
29:14
Speaker 1: Mendez was the favorite nineteen seventeen one at the Globes.
29:18
Speaker 1: Uh Mendez one at the Globes. This is the same situation.
29:22
Speaker 1: So I would say, if you think it's jaw and
29:25
Speaker 1: you think it's as much of a lock and and
29:27
Speaker 1: or you're just a pro nomad Land Best Picture, which
29:30
Speaker 1: I'm not. I don't I don't think we should be.
29:33
Speaker 1: But if you are just leave it alone. I think
29:36
Speaker 1: there's definitely value, just the way there's value in the
29:39
Speaker 1: Best Picture odds on the two films that could win
29:43
Speaker 1: Best Picture, because that's what happened with the upset last year.
29:45
Speaker 1: It was Ho jung Um. Give me if I'm not
29:48
Speaker 1: playing it right, but Bong Jong un Um of Parasite,
29:52
Speaker 1: I bean, we've won this award. So I think you
29:54
Speaker 1: look at Wee Isaac Chung for Minarea at seventeen to one,
29:58
Speaker 1: and you and uh, and you look at Road Fennel
30:00
Speaker 1: for Promising Young Woman at twenty one, because again, these
30:03
Speaker 1: are two like if I had just you know, kind
30:06
Speaker 1: of took the favorites out of this, I would have
30:08
Speaker 1: said this would be a lot closer. Like I think
30:10
Speaker 1: I was definitely deserving of the award. But it's very
30:14
Speaker 1: possible that uh, you know, Minory or Promising Young Woman,
30:20
Speaker 1: given that they're in the Best Picture conversation and they
30:23
Speaker 1: were both very well directed films. Like I don't, I
30:25
Speaker 1: just don't think there's just it's this much of a
30:27
Speaker 1: walk and and you know, people thought of that about
30:29
Speaker 1: Mendez and it wasn't true. And so I think you
30:32
Speaker 1: go right back to the well and I think you
30:33
Speaker 1: also think about parlaying. If your book Lexy parlay, uh
30:37
Speaker 1: you parlay your Best Picture winner, Like if you want
30:40
Speaker 1: to do Weasac Chung for Manari and then um with
30:43
Speaker 1: Minari for Best Picture, or you or you do Emerald
30:46
Speaker 1: Fennel and then you parlay that with a promising young
30:49
Speaker 1: woman for Best Picture, that would be just a umongest
30:52
Speaker 1: payout uh so for both. So um that's how I think.
30:55
Speaker 1: That's how I'm approaching these. It's a doge coin payout
31:01
Speaker 1: pay out. I do want to get the best actress,
31:05
Speaker 1: but I actually I want that to be our last
31:07
Speaker 1: one because that's the one where there is the most suspense.
31:11
Speaker 1: Was like, you look Best Picture, you look, Best Director,
31:13
Speaker 1: you look Best Actor. The implied probability for each one
31:17
Speaker 1: of those categories for the leading contender is north of
31:21
Speaker 1: and so let's do best Actor because best Actor Chadwick
31:25
Speaker 1: Boseman for Mom Rainy's Black Bottom, He's at minus sixteen
31:28
Speaker 1: sixty seven nine four point three imply probability. Uh. Anthony
31:33
Speaker 1: Hopkins for The Father, Thank You for Everything, riz Ahmed
31:37
Speaker 1: for the Sound of Medal, Stephen Yune for Manery, and
31:40
Speaker 1: Gary Oldman for mank round out the rest of the candidates.
31:45
Speaker 1: UH for Best Actor, but again Bozeman at minus sixteen
31:50
Speaker 1: sixty seven nine point three probability. Also the the the
31:56
Speaker 1: Academy tends to award Skurs posthumously. Yeah, I'm not betting
32:02
Speaker 1: against Chadwick. I mean, I'm not saying better on him.
32:04
Speaker 1: It's sixteen sixteen sixty seven. I think that's just the
32:07
Speaker 1: stay away. But like, that's one where I think, Like, again,
32:11
Speaker 1: I haven't seen The Father. I've heard good things. I
32:13
Speaker 1: think Anthony Hopkins, you know, from whatever I've seen him in,
32:17
Speaker 1: he's always been great. Cheers. Oh do you know? I
32:22
Speaker 1: give everything I owned from the glass of you agree?
32:25
Speaker 1: But I just don't think that's gonna overcome the support
32:29
Speaker 1: for Bozeman to win posthumously. And like I saw Ma
32:33
Speaker 1: Rainey's Black Bottom, and I didn't think it was a
32:35
Speaker 1: great movie. But um, I think Chadwick was good. It
32:38
Speaker 1: was great in it. It was just kind of an
32:39
Speaker 1: awkward movie. I think it might have played better. It
32:41
Speaker 1: was like a play or something. I don't know. It
32:42
Speaker 1: was weird. But um, that's one where I don't see
32:48
Speaker 1: the same kind of value on like fading a big
32:52
Speaker 1: favorite as I see on best kritch your best director,
32:55
Speaker 1: because those are kind of related, right, Like those are
32:57
Speaker 1: kind of it's whatever you think the best film is
33:00
Speaker 1: and and and where with the best actor? You know,
33:04
Speaker 1: I just don't I think it's you know, I think
33:06
Speaker 1: a lot of people may probably think it's either Chadwick
33:08
Speaker 1: or Anthony. But because it's posthumous, I think that's why
33:12
Speaker 1: you're seeing the you know, Catwick, Yeah, you got you
33:16
Speaker 1: gotta go Chadwick there, Like there's That's why I I
33:19
Speaker 1: skipped over a little bit because I just when I
33:21
Speaker 1: saw that, I'm just thinking myself, how do they not
33:24
Speaker 1: give it to him? Everything he's done, especially for actors
33:26
Speaker 1: out there, it's it's gotta be Chadwick. Well, then let's
33:30
Speaker 1: ask your best actress question. So who do you love? Man?
33:33
Speaker 1: Like you talked about Frances, I love that value right
33:35
Speaker 1: now plus four hundred for no Man. It's it feels
33:38
Speaker 1: like she's such an established actor that her and like
33:42
Speaker 1: Violet Davis I love during Black Bottoms. They're both these
33:45
Speaker 1: actresses I just see having a great value right now
33:48
Speaker 1: because Violet is plus two hundred and Frances plus four hundred,
33:51
Speaker 1: and I am I crazy for just Ben both of them.
33:54
Speaker 1: Let's round out. Let's round out the list though, just
33:56
Speaker 1: so people know. Carrie Mulligan Promising Young Woman at plus
34:00
Speaker 1: Viola Davis, Mo Rainy's Black Bottom plus two hundred, Francis
34:04
Speaker 1: McDormand Nomad Land plus four hundred, Andrew Day the United
34:08
Speaker 1: States versus Billy Howday plus six hundred, Vanessa Kirby Pieces
34:12
Speaker 1: of a Woman plus two thousand. Andrew Day also prominently
34:17
Speaker 1: featured in many peloton stretching sessions. Her music always a
34:23
Speaker 1: pleasure by the way. Shouts to Andrew Day. I I
34:27
Speaker 1: got her at fifty one to win the Globe. Uh
34:31
Speaker 1: and she did. Yeah. Shouts to Andrew Day, Simon. I
34:35
Speaker 1: would say, Francis and and I would say, on your day?
34:39
Speaker 1: Is the value even over Viola Davis um Having seen
34:42
Speaker 1: Billy Howiday and Mo Rainy's Black Bottom, like again, I
34:47
Speaker 1: thought I was very underwhelming Morainy's Black Bottom, and I
34:50
Speaker 1: think Viola Davis just didn't have as much of a part,
34:55
Speaker 1: like like it was like very like it was like
34:57
Speaker 1: I think Chadwick. Both of them kind of stole the
34:59
Speaker 1: show that in that movie. In Viola Davis, she was good,
35:02
Speaker 1: but I just it wasn't a better performance than Andre Day,
35:06
Speaker 1: who was like the whole movie of Billy Holloway like
35:09
Speaker 1: she and it's kind of like Francis McDorman, Like Francis
35:12
Speaker 1: mcdormant was that whole movie. Uh nomad wins. So I
35:16
Speaker 1: like Francis a lot at at at plus four hundred,
35:19
Speaker 1: and I like Andre Day, who's at plus six hundred. Um,
35:23
Speaker 1: I think both of those have a really big shot. Um.
35:26
Speaker 1: Terry Motigan has kind of been the favorite, you know,
35:28
Speaker 1: throughout the season, but even on gold Derby, but it's
35:31
Speaker 1: it's split. They have four different actresses out of the five.
35:35
Speaker 1: Carry has twelve of the twenty seven votes right now,
35:38
Speaker 1: Viola has eight, Andreds five and McDorman has two. So
35:42
Speaker 1: anytime you see uh any like something with more than zero,
35:47
Speaker 1: they're usually in the running. Like it's somebody with zero
35:49
Speaker 1: gold Derby votes almost never wins um opposing upset. But
35:54
Speaker 1: if you have at least one, then you can start
35:56
Speaker 1: kind of calculating the probabilities and and you know, giving
35:59
Speaker 1: them some some true odds. And um, yeah, I think
36:02
Speaker 1: I'm going Andre Day and McDorman. Um, And I think
36:05
Speaker 1: this will come down to the wire too, So I'll
36:07
Speaker 1: be checking kind if there's gonna be any updates to
36:09
Speaker 1: let the expert think on this one. Probably lay in
36:12
Speaker 1: my final bet, but um, I think, yeah, I I
36:15
Speaker 1: love Francis and I love Andre. Yeah, And I was
36:19
Speaker 1: just sit on Violet because I just seeing that movie.
36:21
Speaker 1: I know you were, like you said, she wasn't a
36:22
Speaker 1: ton of parts, but she was just one of those
36:24
Speaker 1: where like her presence, I couldn't take my eyes off her.
36:27
Speaker 1: I just like she was really powerful in that movie.
36:29
Speaker 1: So that's the reason I like those odds. But like
36:31
Speaker 1: you just said, I'd much rather take plus four hundred
36:33
Speaker 1: plus six hundred, then said on plus two hundred. So
36:36
Speaker 1: I'll ride there on that with you. Uh, it's this.
36:39
Speaker 1: You know what's exciting to me right now? I'm understanding
36:43
Speaker 1: why Carrie Mulligan and uh Daniel Khaluya, who both hosted
36:51
Speaker 1: Saturday Night Live this year, and Daniel Cluya, who was
36:54
Speaker 1: in UH Judas and The Black Messiah, because I had
37:00
Speaker 1: no idea and now I know that these people were
37:03
Speaker 1: stars in big movies this year, and I'm just like cool,
37:06
Speaker 1: these are people who are in Saturay Night Live who
37:07
Speaker 1: I've never seen before. So this is fantastic. It's finally
37:10
Speaker 1: all coming together. Wait wait wait wait wait you haven't
37:12
Speaker 1: seen get Out. You don't remember Daniel Cool You're from
37:17
Speaker 1: get Out? Oh yeah, that's right, because that's the that's
37:22
Speaker 1: was amazing in that. Yeah. And then and then his wife,
37:25
Speaker 1: uh get Out wash was his chick from Girls, that
37:30
Speaker 1: HBO show that played Marnie. So yeah yeah Alison Williams, Yes, yes, yes,
37:36
Speaker 1: Brian Williams daughter that was in incredible movie. Can that
37:41
Speaker 1: win an oscar this year? Because I've seen that and
37:43
Speaker 1: I feel like it should get another shot. No, I
37:46
Speaker 1: had won. Um, I think it won the Screenplay Awards,
37:49
Speaker 1: but yeah it did. It did pull it upset for screenplay.
37:52
Speaker 1: So um yeah, great movie. Uh well, I'm definitely gonna
37:56
Speaker 1: have to see Promising Young Women now because it seems
38:00
Speaker 1: like it's an amazing movie. Yeah, check that. Check minory
38:03
Speaker 1: minories like Manitary could be this year's parasite like It's
38:06
Speaker 1: It's It's that it's similarly good. Um, so I would say, yeah,
38:11
Speaker 1: I for anyone out there that hasn't seen any you know,
38:14
Speaker 1: check those two out all right, well listen in actor
38:18
Speaker 1: and actress. Uh, those are both heavy, heavy favorites. Probability
38:24
Speaker 1: for Union Joom in Manory and uh probability for Daniel
38:32
Speaker 1: Kaloya in Judas in the Black Messiah. Any value in
38:37
Speaker 1: doing upsets there because there is there are some other
38:39
Speaker 1: categories I want to get to where I like have
38:41
Speaker 1: have better sort of more even probabilities raybond worth picking
38:49
Speaker 1: anything worth fading either of the leading candidates in either
38:54
Speaker 1: of those categories. I think perhaps I think COOLi is
38:59
Speaker 1: uh probably lock. I think maybe um in supporting actress,
39:04
Speaker 1: although I think so it wasn't always this pilted toward
39:08
Speaker 1: you junk own, and I thought she was the right choice,
39:11
Speaker 1: So I think the markets actually come around. But uh,
39:15
Speaker 1: Wilbia Coleman tends to, you know, pull these kind of obsests,
39:18
Speaker 1: so um, I don't hate, I don't hate, you know,
39:22
Speaker 1: taking a long shot in supporting actress. I have to
39:25
Speaker 1: kind of reclibrate things here because I only I see
39:29
Speaker 1: like on bolderby You, June is twenty four out of
39:31
Speaker 1: the twenty seven. Gwen Close has three UM for Hillbilly Elogi,
39:35
Speaker 1: so you know she could be an option, But I
39:39
Speaker 1: still think you Jung is the right choice. So it's
39:41
Speaker 1: it's very very swim chances for me sign me any
39:45
Speaker 1: questions for Raybond on either of those two categories. No,
39:49
Speaker 1: I'm really excited to hear what categories are locking in
39:51
Speaker 1: on chat. Give me some value. We talked about Best
39:54
Speaker 1: Film Editing and the Sound of Metal. That's the only
39:57
Speaker 1: other category that has the slimmest odds with uh sound
40:03
Speaker 1: Metal at minus one eighteen. The other one that has
40:07
Speaker 1: slim slim odds and I'm talking about imply the probability
40:10
Speaker 1: at minus one raybon this is best Original Song speak
40:19
Speaker 1: Now one Night in Miami, um, which I did watch
40:25
Speaker 1: as well. Yeah, I don't think pretty good movie. Um.
40:29
Speaker 1: These ones are always a little tougher, um, you know
40:32
Speaker 1: the musical ones right now on gold Derby. What we're
40:36
Speaker 1: seeing is sixteen of the twenty seven experts currently have
40:41
Speaker 1: speak now, so that's fifty nine percent. Markets like, the
40:44
Speaker 1: odds of the market are are pretty in line, is uh.
40:48
Speaker 1: It's it's Hushevik that the number two that's three at
40:52
Speaker 1: plus three fifty. So that's there. There's your value because
40:55
Speaker 1: gold Derby has a at number two with about let
40:59
Speaker 1: me calculate this to the right number, about thirty of
41:04
Speaker 1: the experts on go there we have who Vick and
41:07
Speaker 1: that's their number two choice, So plus three fifty that's
41:10
Speaker 1: like a that's only so you haven't you have about
41:13
Speaker 1: a fifteen percent edge there with with Whoshevik from Eurovision
41:18
Speaker 1: Song Contests. I honestly have no idea what that is.
41:22
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I saw it? Yeah what is Oh? Yeah,
41:26
Speaker 1: I did it? It was I think it was Will
41:29
Speaker 1: Ferrell and Rachel uh is her name mc adams Rachel
41:34
Speaker 1: who she was in uh wedding Crashers. I think yeah.
41:41
Speaker 1: So it's like Eurovision was this old. It was like
41:43
Speaker 1: an American idol before American Idol. So Will Farrell's wife,
41:47
Speaker 1: I guess she's Swedish. Um, so she got him all
41:50
Speaker 1: into it and he made a whole thing about it.
41:53
Speaker 1: It was like him is like a popstick. So it's
41:55
Speaker 1: definitely pretty uh, pretty funny. But the whole idea of
41:58
Speaker 1: Eurovision like ab all these old bands for the seventies eighties.
42:03
Speaker 1: I will say that I wanted it to be so good,
42:06
Speaker 1: and there were moments where it's like one of those
42:08
Speaker 1: movies where you're waiting to laugh, waiting to laugh, keep
42:12
Speaker 1: hoping it's amazing. Nero will have a couple of moments
42:15
Speaker 1: where you're like, this is gonna be it, this is
42:17
Speaker 1: gonna be it, and it's sort of never it never
42:21
Speaker 1: reaches the high notes had He's had a rough runt
42:25
Speaker 1: here will. He hasn't made a funny movie, and it
42:26
Speaker 1: feels like a long time. I mean, I didn't hate
42:29
Speaker 1: Ancreman too. That's honestly his last like funny movies put
42:32
Speaker 1: on probably sevent eight years. I was about to say,
42:34
Speaker 1: I mean, I just think it's been and it may
42:36
Speaker 1: be surprisingly given that, you know, I think there's a
42:38
Speaker 1: lot of material, but I feel like comedy movies in
42:41
Speaker 1: general haven't been as up to snuff as I would
42:45
Speaker 1: like as a comedy fan, Like I really haven't found
42:47
Speaker 1: a lot of movies that I'm like, this is so funny,
42:49
Speaker 1: like you gotta see it, you know, it's just kind
42:51
Speaker 1: of like, okay, you laugh. Well it was it wasn't
42:54
Speaker 1: terrible year. We had Palm Springs and that was that
42:58
Speaker 1: was pretty funny. And he's not everyone's cup of tea.
43:01
Speaker 1: But on uh, eric Andre just put a movie out
43:05
Speaker 1: called Bad Trip. I wasn't I think that was It
43:09
Speaker 1: was like it was like okay, but I get what
43:10
Speaker 1: you're exactly it's like it felt like like the guy
43:14
Speaker 1: who did a Jeff Tremaine, he's the guy did Jackass.
43:16
Speaker 1: So I had if you're a Jackass fan, it's a
43:18
Speaker 1: good movie. But like I tried showing something a little
43:20
Speaker 1: border of him and he was just like, this is
43:22
Speaker 1: so stupid. I can't watch other five minutes. So I'm
43:24
Speaker 1: with you, man, Comedy has just died. I don't know
43:26
Speaker 1: if it's people blame the woke era. I think it's
43:30
Speaker 1: just a different time of writing comedy, because you can
43:32
Speaker 1: be funny without being a sexist or a racist, and
43:35
Speaker 1: I just think that's just a lamb excuse, Like there
43:37
Speaker 1: is still a humor out there, it's just different. Like
43:40
Speaker 1: I enjoyed ted Lasts, so I wouldn't say that was
43:42
Speaker 1: the funniest show I've seen all year, but like it's
43:44
Speaker 1: just different the way humor is nowadays, for sure. I yeah,
43:47
Speaker 1: you know what I think it is. It's you can
43:49
Speaker 1: definitely be funny without being sexist or a racist. But
43:51
Speaker 1: I think it's harder to be funny when you're scared
43:54
Speaker 1: that you're gonna be you're perceived at a sexist or racist,
43:57
Speaker 1: because like even shows like yeah, I'm a Big Family
43:59
Speaker 1: Guy fan, um, you know, always have been, and like
44:02
Speaker 1: just seeing the jokes this season, they're just so tamed
44:06
Speaker 1: compared to you know, when the show is in its heyday,
44:10
Speaker 1: and I just feel like it's because the writers are
44:12
Speaker 1: kind of worried about you know, not you know, not
44:16
Speaker 1: just doing things at a fan but even you know,
44:19
Speaker 1: doing things that may be perceived a certain way. So
44:21
Speaker 1: it's yeah, I think there's definitely the era is definitely
44:24
Speaker 1: kind of contributing to it. Well. What's really interesting, though,
44:28
Speaker 1: is the movies that are nominated for Best Picture, No
44:32
Speaker 1: mad Land, Trial of Chicago, Seven Minery, Promising Young Woman,
44:36
Speaker 1: Make Judas in the Black Massiahs, Sounded Metal to Father, Um.
44:41
Speaker 1: A lot of those movies they were made probably, and
44:45
Speaker 1: they were scripted but cast assigned an in production, a
44:54
Speaker 1: lot of them before a lot of what we've all
44:57
Speaker 1: experienced in the past twelve months, where whether it be
45:01
Speaker 1: the social justice movement, whether it be being shut down
45:04
Speaker 1: for COVID, whether it be about um, the Me Too movement,
45:10
Speaker 1: all of that stuff. Um, and yet they are out now,
45:13
Speaker 1: even No mad Land, you could you could prescribe and
45:17
Speaker 1: ascribe some of these values sort of the idea of
45:21
Speaker 1: being left behind, the idea of being forgotten, that that
45:26
Speaker 1: section of society that is they have not that is
45:28
Speaker 1: trying to figure it out and doesn't get to take
45:31
Speaker 1: advantage of everything that is offered for people who have
45:35
Speaker 1: all those things. Um, they all existed in the atmosphere
45:40
Speaker 1: and we're being produced long before these things came to
45:43
Speaker 1: the four Now. I do think sometimes that's why these
45:46
Speaker 1: movies get elevated is because they are what people are
45:49
Speaker 1: talking about, and they're reflective of what's happening society and
45:54
Speaker 1: the fact there's no comedies that's just the bummer man,
45:57
Speaker 1: because those movies are what we need to see and
46:01
Speaker 1: what we need to have to be lifting us up
46:05
Speaker 1: right now. Yeah, but I mean going back to the
46:08
Speaker 1: so the Eurovision Song contest, the I just made a
46:11
Speaker 1: great speech and you're going back to Will Ferrell. I
46:14
Speaker 1: mean it's a comedy. It's it's what we're talking about.
46:16
Speaker 1: You wanted value, right, So the not only is it
46:19
Speaker 1: their value about value based on the experts, but if
46:23
Speaker 1: you look at the editors and there's only eleven, such
46:25
Speaker 1: a smaller sample size. So I don't always like include
46:28
Speaker 1: them in the models as as heavily when I'm building them,
46:31
Speaker 1: but it's just a note. Eight of the eleven editors
46:35
Speaker 1: actually pick who should fix from Eurovision Song Contest, so
46:40
Speaker 1: it's over. It's the overwhelming favorite amongst the editors, the
46:43
Speaker 1: people that kind of you know, right on this site
46:46
Speaker 1: that predicts movie works every year. And then it's also
46:50
Speaker 1: showing value in terms of the experts. I mean, that's
46:52
Speaker 1: there's your pick, you know, for for Best Song, there's
46:55
Speaker 1: your pick. All right, there you go. Then let me
46:59
Speaker 1: wrap it up, then, Simons, you've got any questions on that, No,
47:03
Speaker 1: I'm taking it all in. I'm like blown away how
47:05
Speaker 1: much he knows about the oscars. It's unbelievable, right all right?
47:09
Speaker 1: So for Best Picture, what we're probably gonna do is
47:11
Speaker 1: try to package your money across Trial of Chicago seven
47:15
Speaker 1: minory Promising Young Woman, because we are going to go
47:18
Speaker 1: a heavy, heavy fade on Nomad Land. For Best Director,
47:23
Speaker 1: we probably are gonna pass on that one because we
47:26
Speaker 1: do think uh Chloe Jah is probably the right choice,
47:31
Speaker 1: but we might take a little bit of a taste
47:32
Speaker 1: on Lee Isaac Chung for minery that I capture that accurately,
47:36
Speaker 1: right man, and Emerald Feno, like I think the two
47:38
Speaker 1: the two Best Picture contenders. Um, you want to take
47:42
Speaker 1: a little bit of peace on if you if you
47:44
Speaker 1: do want to bet this category and you if you
47:47
Speaker 1: can parlay parlay the like Chung with Manory for Best
47:50
Speaker 1: Picture and parlay Fenom with Promising Young Woman. Because again
47:54
Speaker 1: last year we saw a Mendez the big favorite with
47:56
Speaker 1: nineteen seventeen and ends up being parasite and on John
47:59
Speaker 1: n Win this director. So, um, I think that's certainly
48:03
Speaker 1: possible in this preferential ballot era. Best Actor we're skipping
48:08
Speaker 1: because we all believe it's Chadwick Boseeman. There is no
48:11
Speaker 1: fading Best Actress, Carry Mulligan. This is probably the most
48:14
Speaker 1: interesting category on the entire board. Carry Mulligan plus but
48:20
Speaker 1: Viola Davis, Uh, Francis McDorman and Raybon. You think, uh,
48:26
Speaker 1: Andrew Day might be worth a little bit of a
48:30
Speaker 1: play given her success with the Globes and uh, you
48:34
Speaker 1: know past this prologue in these things. Yeah, like I
48:36
Speaker 1: mean just watching all the movies and and Kerry Mulligan
48:40
Speaker 1: was was great too, But I mean I would say
48:42
Speaker 1: on your Day or Francis to me was like was
48:46
Speaker 1: the best actress. So now it's just a matter of
48:48
Speaker 1: you know, you know is you know, because I think
48:51
Speaker 1: promising young women, I think they want to give it something,
48:53
Speaker 1: and I sometimes they do kind of get into those politics.
48:56
Speaker 1: You know, maybe that's it, but um, this one has
48:59
Speaker 1: been wide open again on your day one, it like
49:01
Speaker 1: it's like the fifth most likely won the last week
49:04
Speaker 1: likely won. She wanted the globes. Um, you know, we've
49:06
Speaker 1: seen the precursors kind of split around a little bit.
49:09
Speaker 1: Bio Davis is still in contention, you know, like as
49:11
Speaker 1: Simon mentioned, So, um, this is definitely one where I
49:15
Speaker 1: think you want to look at an underdog and even
49:16
Speaker 1: if you're if you like Kerry, I mean she's plus
49:18
Speaker 1: money right now. Um, I mean I think there's better
49:21
Speaker 1: values there. But yeah, this is this is definitely one
49:23
Speaker 1: of the better categories, the better ones to bet all right.
49:26
Speaker 1: And then finally our two wild cards Best Original Song
49:30
Speaker 1: go with Who's Avic? Plus three fifty Who's a Vic?
49:33
Speaker 1: From Eurovision Song Contest starring Will Ferrell, and then Best
49:38
Speaker 1: editing our friend Simon Hunter likes the sound of metal
49:41
Speaker 1: at minus one eighteen. Guys, I think we've given people
49:45
Speaker 1: what they need. That's what I can say about that.
49:47
Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume Network. The
49:52
Speaker 1: Volume is now on YouTube will be uploading new episodes
49:56
Speaker 1: and clips daily, including some past interviews and moment from
50:00
Speaker 1: all of our shows. Go subscribe to our YouTube channel
50:04
Speaker 1: at YouTube dot com. Backslash the Volume. I am Chad
50:09
Speaker 1: Mellman for Simon Hunter for Chris Raybon. Download us from
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Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Listen
50:16
Speaker 1: to us on Thursday for the Thunderdome edition. Until then,
50:23
Speaker 1: I love you