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The Favorites - NBA Finals Betting Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Network a k a. Mr. Hoops, because I'm so good
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: at prognostication on the n b A and these playoffs. Um,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: I've got a couple of guys who will back me
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: up on it. Action Network analyst Matt Moore is going
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: to join us in a minute. My Volume Podcast colleague
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Jason Timf is gonna come back on. He's been on
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: before during the playoffs. We're gonna recap what's been happening
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: in the Warrior Celtics series. We're gonna predict what is
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: going to happen in the war Yours Celtics series. Before
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Matt and Jason join us. Hello, some women, Simon Hunter
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: professional better might bff my companion like Capadre. How you doing, buddy?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: It's nice to see these NBA players are just like us.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Have you seen on Twitter lately? How bored Kevin Durant
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: and Lebron James are? I love it. I love These
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: guys are sitting around just like us and are like,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I just want to talk sports. I just want to
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: chat up and disagree with people. I love that football.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: We don't get that, like what quarterback is on Twitter
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: being like, nah, I'm the best player ever. This is why.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: This is why you're an idiot. This is why you're
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: a fool. We don't get the NBA. These guys are
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: so loose. I love it they have you know, they're
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: sitting on their couch. Kevin Durant is probably smoking a
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: blunt and he's just firing away on people. And it's
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: just been really fun this offseason. It's so fun that
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: you say that. I was thinking, Look, I listened to
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of NBA radio, which I think is great.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: And in the mornings, I listened to Frank I Sola
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: and Brian Scalabrini. When I'm taking my kids to school,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: if i'm running an errand, it's always on. And then
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: in the afternoon when i'm picking my kid up, it's
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: usually Justin Termany and Eddie Johnson. I love listening to
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: NBA radio because this league, man, it is just so
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: full of the drama. And I do think that NBA
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: players Durant Lebron. I feel like they are bigger fans
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: of their sport than NFL players are of their sport,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and I think that's why you get like a they're
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: they're more prone to drama. I think in the NBA generally,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of the players are more outspoken,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: and I think they're sitting around watching these games at night,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: and like NFL players. Look, NFL players outside of the playoffs,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: they're playing every Sunday, and so when the games are happening,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: they're playing right and so like there's a Monday night game,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: a Thursday and night game, but NBA players they're watching
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: every game. I love. I love the drama this league
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: brings with these players, right Yeah. Like I just been like,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: if Tom Brain in the middle of the Super Bowl
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: is tweeting, man, someone should have had me on their
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: podcast right now. We'd all be like, holy ship, this
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: is crazy. Like Lebron James just funny as HELLU being like,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I got a lot to say, um, but now it's
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: like we're about to dive into these guys. The playoffs
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: have been good, Honestly through two games. People have been
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: hating on the playoffs this year. Really competitive basketball these
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: last two games, and it's it's fun to here where
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: these guys think this year is gonna go, because yeah,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: we know what we like. It's it's it's gonna be see.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Have you updated your view on this series? Are you
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: still holding tight with your Warriors prediction? Oh? My god,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I feel great. I got to remind people Simon is
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: invested to the tune of mid five figures uh north
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: of fifty k on the Warriors. He bet them on
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: a sort of the series price. Um, I have bet
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the Warriors, uh for significantly less to win in sixth
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I bet the war at at like plus four fifty
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: or something. I bet the Warriors to win in seven
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: at plus three something. I bet Steph Curry to lead
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the series in scoring average and three point average per game,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: uh plus four thirty. I have seen nothing, even in
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the first game that made me feel like I should
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: walk away from the Warriors at this point. Um, we'll
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: go to Matt Moore first, who has talked about the Celtics,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: who was like the Celtics, who believes in a model
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: that likes the Celtics. I think he's wrong, but you know,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: he can try to convince us and see if anything
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: has changed his mind in the last you know hours.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I have no idea what you guys are saying here
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: to feel this guy. Like I saw Simon went back
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: in on on Steph Curry for Finals MVP the other
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: then I was like, what do you ask Watson? Uh? Look,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the consensus amongst like the hoop Heads is very much
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: that like the Celtics are getting what they want, that
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: they have a lot of strategic advantages. I think it's
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: a little too far. Uh. The series is pretty even.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: But look Boston Steeles game, they have home court, they
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: responded after every single loss they have. The other thing
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: I would say is they made Golden State adjusting game too.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: But that's the big thing here is like Steve Kerr
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: had to crack first and be like, if we don't
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: win this game, we're sunk, So I gotta go ahead
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: and start making adjustments. Now, coaches in the in any
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: playoff series, they want to wait to adjust as long
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: as possible. You don't want to get out ahead of
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: it because now you're in this race of your counters
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: and my counters and you're not doing what you do best.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Kerr had to crack first, and now Imodoka has got
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: a full two days off before this Game three two
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: counter program. Nothing I'd say is I look back, I
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: went back into the film. There's big article over on
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Action about game two and what happened the Celtics. Honestly,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: it wasn't even necessarily just like playing badly. It was
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: just doing weird things like they jumped up their own spacing,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: which they haven't done. There's all these types of things.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I cannot in six especially, I cannot believe that you
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: guys are like like, no, no, I feel great. Who
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't like have lost home court in the very first
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: game and then needing basically the Celtics to bombit on
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: themselves in game two. We're good, baby, We're good. Well,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with your framing. My my theory on
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: this the entire time was the Warriors are gonna lose
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: one of the first two games. I firmly believe they
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: were gonna split. I also firmly believe that they will
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: steal a game in Boston. I still subscribe to the
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: best player in the series usually gives his team a
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: chance to gives his team a little bit of an edge,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: which is why I have the Warriors and six, but
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: also bought them at seven. And Steph Curry so far
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: as the best player in this series, and uh, you can't,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: you can't. You can't give me that look that more.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: That's just fact right now. He has been a game
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: changer in this series. When he wasn't playing well in
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: the third quarter and the fourth quarter, the Warriors blow
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: their lead when they weren't shooting well. When he is
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: on fire and playing at full capacity and hitting shots
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: that nobody should be hitting except for him, the Warriors
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: go on and they dominate that game. And my feeling
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: on this series the entire time has been the Warriors
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: ceiling on scoring is higher than the Celtics, and when
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: everything is going right for them, they have an opportunity
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: just by virtue of the way the games are played,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: to outscore Boston. We saw them in stark contrast. We
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: saw that theory exactly proven right in Game one in
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: that they kind of shipped the bed when they got
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: into the second half. At the end of the first half,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: they couldn't score. In the fourth quarter, they couldn't score
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: for all the reasons why we think they can score
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: is a little bit like do basketball. When they hit threes.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: They're unstoppable. When they don't, they can't. I am betting
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: on the fact that the Warriors will find ways to
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: hit the reads and score more often than go cold
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: in this NBA Finals. Jason tim before Matt more can
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: respond to me because I know he's got something he
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: wants to say talk to me. So one of the
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: things that Matt mentioned that I believe very strongly, and
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: especially in the playoff series where you're trying to get
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: a feel for process, because in a short sample size,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: wild things can happen, right, Like in Game one, Marcus Smart,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Derek White and Al Horford going fift from three. That's
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: kind of wild, right, Or like in game two you
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: get Jordan Poole hitting half course shot. You know, like
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: there's all these kind of random things that can happen. Um.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: But you look at process, you look at what, like
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: which team you know? I like, I like the way
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Matt said it. Like it just the game looks a
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: little bit easier for Boston in the sense that to
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: get to their spots where they want to get to
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: to get the kinds of shots that they want to
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: get when they really lock in defensively and they need
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: to contain a certain matchup that feels like they're more
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: capable of doing so physically. The problem is they don't
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: get to that high end of their two way basketball
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: often enough, which is why I've always said they're the
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: jackal and hide team of this playoff run. I think
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: they're best punch is better than anybody else's best punch.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Has just been a question of whether or not that
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: could get there frequently enough, which is why I picked
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Golden State to win this series and seven. I have
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: not seen enough to justify switching that pick yet, but
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I do feel just slightly better about Boston now than
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I did before the series. The interesting thing was in
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Game one, Boston was getting incredible dribble penetration, particularly with
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Jlen Brown, who's my sneaky pick for Finals m v
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: P of Boston wins. But the adjustment that Matt Moore
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: mentioned was moving Draymond Green over to Jalon Brown. Draymond
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Green is allowed to be very physical and use his
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: hands with the way that this series is playing out,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: and he just basically held Jalen Brown in his place
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: on the perimeter and turned him into a perimeter shooter. Basically.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: In Game one, he had a leven shot attempts in
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: the paint. In Game two we only had four. But
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the flip side of that is emmy email Judoka did
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: absolutely nothing to try to punish that mismatch in reverse.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: So for instance, they didn't attack the offensive glass without
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Horford nearly enough. They only posted up Al Horford on
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Clay Thompson one time in the game where he immediately
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: drew a double team and then he just didn't see
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: the double team coming and ended up missing a shot.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: But in general, I do think Boston has a lot
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: more moves to make um Also, I think Boston has
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: their best line up entirely figured out. Derek White, Marcus Smart,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Tatum and Brown and Al Horford. That's who they're gonna
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: go with when the chips are on the table, Whereas
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: with Golden State you could tell they're still kind of
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out, like how the perfect balance of
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: offense and defense to go with. But at the end
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: of the day, I mean that I think I think
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Fantel has basically at a coin flip right now. Right
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Golden State is just a barely a favorite at this point.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I you're getting you're getting home court for Game seven,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: for Golden State, you're getting the experience advantage. And what
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I do agree with you, Chad, even though I do
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: think the next two three four players are probably Boston.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I think Steph is clearly far and away the best
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: player in the series. He's playing his best NBA Finals
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: he's ever played to this point, and that's, you know,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: another huge card in Golden States pocket. But my point
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: is as if you're a Boston fan, you should be
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: feeling pretty good right now. Listen, Matt Moore, I'm not
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: letting you talk yet because I know it's killing you
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: that now. Jason agrees with me. Uh in my assessment,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Simon Uh even invested heavily in the Warriors, the prices
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: significantly lower than it was before the series. It's one one,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: having seen two games, do you now start investing again
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: in the Warriors? Yeah? But I did, like I did,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Like Matt, we brought it up that I bought more
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: shares of Steph for m v P. It's a simple
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: fact that he's looked the best through two games in
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: my opinion as well on offense and the game too.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: We saw his defense really show up. And these writers,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: they all were talking about that. Two votes on these awards,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: so they are already were gonna give him a little
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: bit of a leeway to win the m v P.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: And the fact that he's doing on offense of the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: court now, which has always been a kind of a
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: knack on him, is like, Okay, great, he showed up
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: on offense, but look how a liability was on defense.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: That's huge. And the fact he didn play the fourth
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: quarter in that last game. People were talking about that.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, the guy he is what makes them that
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: team go. So I bought a little bit more, not
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: enough to really like go crazy about, but I did
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: bet them again I minus one and a half to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: win this series. Because again, as much as we're about
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: to talk to you about Boston at home court and
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: what they think has happened in Game three, we've seen
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: these playoffs. Boston has not been that good at home.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: They've they've been much better on the road. And we
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: know Golden State through their history, loves to play on
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the road. Draymond loves to be hated. He feeds off
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the crowd. I think this is what Clay Thomas needs.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: He needs to get the hell out of the same brand,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: get out to Boston, clear his head, and I think
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have a really good clay game. So to me,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet money line either first game or the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: second game. But I can get it to you. If
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: they lose first game, I'll be on the moneyline Golden
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: State second games. So start with you, Matt, what do
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you think is gonna happen this game? Through? Heavy on Boston?
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: This is this is like the one spot that that
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I'm really target in the series for a game that
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: um a couple of things. So Boston had a ton
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: of turnovers in Game two. That's been their Achilles heel
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: and every Celtics writer has talked about it. Uh, in
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: games after they have fourteen or more turnovers, which they
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: had in Game two. In the playoffs, the Celtics are
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: eight and three straight up, eight and three against the spread.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: After losses, there's six and oh straight up six and
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: oh against the spread with the average margin of victory
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: plus fifteen and a half. Like that's defined them these
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: playoffs is their ability to bounce back from losses. They
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: haven't caught two in a row yet, but Golden State
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: after a win this postseason just six and seven against
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: the spread. Uh, that's just part of the cap on.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: This part of it also is we've talked about some
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: of these things with you know, Jason brought up Draymond
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Green on Jalen Brown, Like I mentioned the weird things
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Boston did. So if you have Ja, if you have
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Draymond Green on Jalen Brown, what do you want to do? Like,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: you want to space him out right, you want to
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: get him out of the paint so that at least
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: he can't muck up things as a health defender. Yeah. No,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the Celtics put Jalen Brown in the dunker spot and
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: let Draymond Green just completely funk up the the Celtics drives.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: It was absolutely insane. Uh, some of the same stuff
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: happened where they put Play Thompson on Robert Williams, so
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Robert Williams can't do anything else, so he's in the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: dunker spot, and that contributed to how bad Boston was
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: from two point range. So you got celt you've got
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: bad Celtics adjustments, lack of Celtics adjustments, you've got turnover issues,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: all these type of things. Two days to work on it.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: I genuinely think that this is a great Boston spot.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: They'll get good shooting at home now, Chad, I don't
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think they're gonna win two at home.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I think it's possible, but I kind of lean towards
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Golden State winning to put this at two two in
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: game four. But I do like Boston very much in
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: the spot based off of what I've seen from the
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: adjustments how these games have played out. So on the
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry front, Look, if you're gonna bet Warriors, I
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: think Steph Curry is probably the best value here. Right.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: You don't have to worry about them winning three of
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: the next four. You don't have to worry about that
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: in order to make sure that you don't avoid the
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: game seven if you're doing the MIAs one and a half.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: So if you're gonna bet it, just bet Steph Curry.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Because I think Simon's right, like he's gonna win. He's
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: been the best player in the series. I guess like
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of this is if you actually look at
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: what happened. Here's what happened Game one. The Celtics screwed
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: up their coverage and played drop against him, and everyone
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: was like, what are you doing? He goes five or
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: sixteen and quarters too through four in Game one second
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: game right, he has twenty eight points on twenty one shots.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Good efficiency, It's not otherworldly. And really, when you go
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: back and you break it down, here's what happened in
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: the third quarter. They did things like, hey, let's play
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Daniel Tye and have him played drop against Steph Curry
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: and see what happens. To the point that I'm like,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: was Udoka just like lulling them into a false sense
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: of security. What's happening here? So if you like the Warriors,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: I think Steph Curry is the play because plays Thompson
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: has been so bad in games one and two, so
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: bad in games one and two. I have a hard
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: time seeing anybody being able to get the scoring up
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: to where it's like, I guess the defaults is Steph Curry.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, like I don't necessarily like to me, Curry
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: is not solving the good coverage that the Celtics bring
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: on him. The Celtics have just had breakdowns, really inexplicable ones,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: and when they've been locked in, Steps having a hard
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: time because he doesn't want to run picking a roll
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: fifty times like he did in Game two. That's not
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: what he wants to do. That's not their offense. They're
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: out of their comfort zone right now, and I think
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: that matters. So sometimes I wonder, you know, Simon and I,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: we're NFL experts, NFL betting experts say that with all humility,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: and yet sometimes because we are so inside of the game, Yeah,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: it becomes harder for us to make the right decision
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: when we're betting. And I feel like when I'm listening
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: to hardcore inside NBA analysts like Jason and Matt, but
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: more so Mad than Jason, because Jason agrees with me
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Um just in this case, just Matt. They keep accounting
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: for inconsistencies in Boston as if this isn't going to happen,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: when we've seen the evidence. It happens literally in every
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: single playoff series, no joke. First game of the playoffs,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: they are killing the nets, and the nets in the
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: final three minutes outscore the Celtics, going on a crazy run.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: The Celtics let Kyrie run loose, and they need a
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: miracle slashing layoup from Jason Tatum to win that game,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: and even the rest of the games were close, even
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: though they won that for nothing, and throughout the rest
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: of the series, we see they don't beat the box
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: without Chris Middleton going down, Jimmy Butler misses a wide
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: open three, they lose that game. In Game seven, they
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: had plenty of inconsistent performances against the Heat. Why am
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I to believe that they're not going to continue to
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: do that and give the Warriors chances to win? Matt More,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: you say they're going to clean it up. I say
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: it's gonna keep happening. I say, this is the Warriors
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: series to lose in six. I'm I say that you're right,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: but they probably are gonna keep doing this. But you
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: also can't look at Golden State you want to talk
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: about like like oh they're doing They're noting those Warriors
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: are gonna screw around, like getting beat by fifty in
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Game five versus the Memphis Grizzlies. Like this has been
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Golden State's m O the whole time. Like the defining
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: moment for me of the Warrior's entire time is not
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: any sort of heroic championship moment. It's Steph Curry throwing
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: the ball out of bounds in Game seven after being
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: up three one. This is who they are. You want
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: to like, I agree with you. This sometimes we can
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: get too much in the weeds, so we can like
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: bring it back. Who's been the best team since January nine,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: over five months of basketball, It's been the Boston Celtics.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Just they've been better. Uh you talk about, well, the
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Warriors have a higher ceiling. The Celtics entire design is
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: to keep you from getting there. That's why they've had
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: the best defense in the league. One that's been you know,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: talked about is one of the better ones ever. I
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: don't go that far. I think that's ridiculous. This is
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: not the O four Pistons, but it's a really by
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the numbers, that's one of the better defenses we've seen
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: over the last twenty years. So you have this combination
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: of a team that will keep you from getting to it.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Plus the Warriors, they're just you see this with Clay Thompson,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: you see this with Jordan Poole, you see this honestly
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: with Steph Curry. This is not Splash Brothers that they're
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: just not the same team, or about this before the
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: finals on action. This is just not that same team.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: They're different. I think they're really good and they can
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: definitely win the championship. Like I don't think this is
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: a lot by any means, But we're looking at value
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: with a team that stole one on the road already,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: that has won the first half in both of these games,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: that's had a huge advantage in terms of how they
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: make the tactical matchup decisions. I personally can't get into
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: any sort of idea that this is like, oh yeah,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the Warriors have got this. I think you're looking at
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the value now right now. The war the Celtics are
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: favored in a lot of spots. I think you wait
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: until the Celtics lose again if you want to come
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: back in on them, Like I think there's a good
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: chance that there's a good spot to bet Warriors after
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Game three because I think the Celtics are gonna win
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Game three. We look at the again, the history of
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: how they've played after they lose says that the Boston
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Celtics are probably gonna win Game three at home. And
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: I think that's a good spot for you to get
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: back in on the Warriors or hedge. I think that's
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: a perfectly find spot because I do think Golden State's
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: really good. But if we're talking about the matchup, if
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: we're talking about team quality. If we if we step
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: back and we just go, okay, like, who's the best
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: player on the team, Steff in between the two series,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry, all Right, who's more easily able to actually
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: influence things? Well, it's Jayson Tatum because he can run,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: pick and roll more. That's Jason Tatum. He's been amazing.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: He doesn't need to run five off ball screens to
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: get an open three. So all these kind of factors combine,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: you go down the list of the remaining players. Marcus
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Smart hasn't played well yet, Jalen Brown honestly hasn't played
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: great yet. I think there's way more upside for the
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Boston Celtics in this series six. Steph Curry would never
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: go But Jason, just real quick, I want to hear
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: what your view is on Game three? Are you with him?
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Are you just like Boston continues a trend? They just
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: bounced back this whole playoffs after after a loss. I'm again,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: I love going against trends like that because they're due,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: But I would love hear what your view is on that.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Let me just set some context here right now, the
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Celtics are three and a half point favorites in game.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: So my head is exactly where Chat is in terms
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: of like the my dealing with the Celtics team this
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: entire playoff run. I've never seen a team that like
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: is so allergic to success, meaning like they struggle to
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: identify why they're winning and they immediately go away from
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: those things. Their shot selection in game two was appalling.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: There was just a hilarious sequence where Tatum had Numania
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: be elitza Golden State's worst defender, on a switch and
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: he passed out of it, didn't take a shot. They
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: went down, they got a step to stop, he came
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: back down and shot an early clock pull up three
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: over Andrew Wiggins and made it. And I'm literally sitting
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: there and I'm like, how is it that you wouldn't
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: shoot on their worst defender and then you took an
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: early clock pull up three on their best defender. I'm like,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: what are you doing? Man? But that's the That's the
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: entirety of the way this Celtics team has approached every
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: single game in this playoff run. It's like it's literally
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: just incredibly volatile. Now to the point about the home
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: road thing, I don't think it's about a home road thing.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Some teams psychologically are just unaffected by the arena. The
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Celtics are one of those teams. They're just an inconsistent team,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: which means they're gonna lose at home just like they're
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: gonna lose on the road on the road. So the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: way I look at it, I think this Game three
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: will be the most dominant Boston game of this playoff run,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: the best game that they will have played in this
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: entire run. The I think it's the first NBA Finals
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: game at home for Boston since what two thousand ten,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: so you can expect just an incredible environment in that arena.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: The Celtics just got their butts kicked, which, to Matt's point,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: every time that's happened in this playoff run, not only
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: have they responded, they've responded resoundingly. They come out and
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: kick your as in the next game. So from that standpoint,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: I think, and then also Golden State is a famous
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: team that when things start to go bad, they'll pack
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: it in for the next night because their veterans. They'll
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: bench guys in the fourth quarter. They've got that guys
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: dealing with injuries. Out of Porter has got a foot thing.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Everybody's banged up, right, So I think this is the
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: resounding Boston blowout. Game is Game three. But then to
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Simon's point, I'd be sitting there at Game four, like, man,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: that Golden State line looks really interesting, because, like, I
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: just don't expect them to replicate that performance. When someone
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: tells you repeatedly exactly who they are, I'm inconsistent, then
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: you should believe them. And Boston has told you they
• 24:35
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• 26:14
  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Hey, Matt, how are you
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: thinking about player props now that we've had a two
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: games sample size you look at so many people bet
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum over twenty six and a half, twenty seven,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half. I know you actually had
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: an outline by the way, like Warriors minus nine or
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: something like that, So good job in that one. Uh.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: A lot of people liked Andrew Wiggins over sixteen and
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: a half he had eleven. A lot of people like
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: the Auto Porter over southern and half points he had three. Um,
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: how are you thinking about props during the series when
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: teams are playing each other only against each other and
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: you're starting to see adjustments your handicap props a little
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: bit differently, I would imagine. Yeah. So one of the
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: things that we've really tried to target in on the playoffs,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: on on the Action NBA side is trying to look
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: at who's gonna get written out of the rotation. For me,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: the biggest targeted honestly, and this will probably surprise Jason
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: little bit, it's Robert Williams. I actually think Robert Williams
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a problem for Boston in terms of
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: trying to like they need to go small when they
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: have Williams on the court, It's like, oh, what a
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: massive block by him? Oh, he stayed back and allowed
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry to shoot three threes off the bounce. That's
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: that's not what you want, like you makes Steph Curry
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: make layups and so Um, I think Williams is going
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: to be a spot. But the problem is we run
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: into this all the time of do you want to
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: get ahead of the of the coaching adjustment or do
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: you want to wait for it? And with Kerr and Udoka,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: I also have to wait for it. Um, there are
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: some props problems. I liken this one. Wiggins had seventeen
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: points and rebounds and only played thirty minutes. That game
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: is not a blowout. If Boston just doesn't completely shut
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the bed offensively, he probably gets there. Steph Curry ten
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: a half over assistant rebounds was a really painful one.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: He had ten over ten and a half. He had ten.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: I got hit by the hook and he sits the
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: entire fourth quarter. I'm back on that for Game three.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I like assistant rebounds for Curry with where this is
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: gonna gonna go, even with expecting a Boston win in
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: this one. Uh, Brandon Anderson, who will not hesitate to
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: always tell me how he would have known better? Um,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: as he constantly victory laps on buckets. Our podcast, he
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: was like, why were you guys betting the Tatum over
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: assist prop? Because when the Celtic you all thought the
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Celtics were gonna lose Game two, And when the Celtics lose,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Tatum doesn't get assist and his assist prop is like
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: plus three over the line in wins. So this is, obviously,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I think a great spot to that Tatum over on assist.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: I tailed Raybon because he's been red hot in Game
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: two and that was a miss, but I think this
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: is a much better spot for it. The other one
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: I really like here honestly is Okay, we think that
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Williams might play less, who plays more? And it's Al Horford.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Al Horford I think gets a ton of minutes. I
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: also found this at home. Horford is averaging three point
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: six assists. That's a huge differential from his road splits
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: and so his rebounds and assists only. So we just
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: think that he's gonna play a lot of five, get
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of rebounds, but probably crash the offensive glass
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: a lot more. Jason talked about that adjustment. Twelve and
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: a half over is plus one oh four so that
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: gets us a really kind of a good number. They're
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: getting a plus number, and what I think it is
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: a good spot for al Horford. That's where I'm looking
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: at for props. But as a general strategy, I think
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: that you need to try and stay away from the
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: obvious ones unless it's something like, oh, I think the
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Warriors are gonna win and the only way they win
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: as if Steff has a huge game, some bed step overs,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: you should try and correlate those a little bit. But
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: other than that may be alternate markets for things like
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: assistant rebounds is where there's more value. That is really
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: good advice. Mam More, Um, I don't know. I feel
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: like we've covered it all. I feel like we've covered
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: game three. I feel like we covered potential m v
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: P s. I feel like we covered sort of who
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: we like for the future. We covered player props. What
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: is it, Matt More? You want to say something? I
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: have two things before we get out of here. At one,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: steph Curry has two games where he's had worse than
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: a minus thirty six. Thank you, Simon. And then and too,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: I'm excited back on here next week to be told
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: how I'm I'm totally crazy that the Celtics gonna win
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: when they're up three to really really quickly. Jalen Brown
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: is plus seven fifty to win Finals MVP. Now, regardless
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: of how you feel about the series, that's one hell
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: of a number and most importantly, match just hit on
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: this with Live Moods today on Instagram. I was talking
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: about how I liked tatums over assists at five and
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: a half. The big thing there is it's breaking down
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: with the way golden status guarding that the best dynamic
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: for Boston is Tatum to almost play decoy just to
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: get dribble penetration and kick out and start their driving
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: kick and for Jalen Brown to be there, let him
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: loose gunning score and I could see him. I think
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: he's only twenty two and a half or is over
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: under points tonight, which I really like, and for the series,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: I could see him being just placed in terms of
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: his role on the team as the dynamic score. There's
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: a real there's a real possible outcome here where Boston
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: wins your average twenty six points. Tatum has an inefficient,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: low scoring series and he ends up getting Finals MVP
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: and plus seven fifties an incredible number there. Wow, that
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: is really good. I think Matt Morris shaking his head,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: he likes that too. I think if you like the Celtics,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: you bet Jyalen Brown m VP. If you like the Warriors,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: you bet Steph Curry MVP. Like to win the series.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: The number is built in that people are sitting out
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: there are four you to one fifty one tickets on
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: the Celtics right now to win the NBA Championship. Like
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: the Celtics were a huge, huge, huge dog to win
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: it all. So when you keep people keep reaching out
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: there like why is this line so fishy? Like why
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: are the Warriors only minus one fifteen? It's a lot
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: of that that's built into it. Also, the bookmakers are
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: they they're following a trend. They believe Boston will win
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: a game after they lose, so right now and their
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: mind they have Boston winning the next game. So I
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: know a lot of people have asked about the minus
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: one fifty minus one tent for the series price. I
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: don't think it's fishy. If you like the number, take it.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: It's not. I just want to overthinking people are kind
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: of overthinking it. There's a lot that goes into it again. End.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: There's people sitting on four to one Boston to win
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: it All tickets, it's the books. If Boston wins it all,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: they're probably gonna take a law. So it's something to
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: keep in mind when you're betting these serious prices. Don't
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: over think it. Keep it simple, stupid. That's what we
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: do here on the Favorites podcast on the Volume Podcast Network.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: For Jason timp from the Volume Podcast Network. For Matt
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Moore from the Action Network. For Simon Hunter, my co host.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites Podcast. Download us from Apple podcasts,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Leave us a
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: five star reviews, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Until next time, I Love you,