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NFC South Division Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. As we have been doing for
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the past few weeks, we are breaking down every single
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: team in every single division and how they've improved or
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: not improved according to Super Bowl odds, according to conference odds,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: according to division odds since the end of last season.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Today's division maybe the worst division in all of football.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I call it the nondescript Division. I call it the
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: division with helmets. Nobody cares about team names that sound
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: like they belong in a Oliver Stone movie, with a uniforms,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: fake players, fake decals. I have been against this division
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: for years. I think nobody cares about any of these
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: teams except for the people in the towns they live in.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I'm inviting the haters. It's the NFC South, my least
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: favorite division in football. Simon Hunter, my best friend, my companion,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the person for whom I have unconditional love. Talk to me.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: How are you? But I'm shocked to hear you say
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: this thing was division. I actually love this division every year.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I'm one of those weird people. I love it. Maybe
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: maybe that's the difference between you and me, and ultimately
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: why you are a wise guy, and I'm just a
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: guy pretending to be a wise guy. But it is
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to me like the Panthers and their uniforms and their helmets,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the Box and their uniforms and their helmets changing every year.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: The Falcons, to me, even though they've been around forever,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: still feel like an expansion franchise that nobody would ever
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: be interested in. Uh. The Saints are the only team
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: in that division to me that feels like there is
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: any history, character, interesting narrative ever. Like they're either really
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: good or they're really they're comically bad. Um Like the
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Bucks are irrelevant unless they've got the greatest quarterback in
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the history of football. So I I go by narratives
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: and sort of connection, and I have no connection here. None.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: It sounds like a bitter Bears fan. That's what you
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: sound like. That's what you sound like, Chad. So let's
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: go over the NFC North. You guys have what two
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: super Bowls in the last thirty years. It's both Green Bay,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. And I think I think the South
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: here has three super Bowls in the last twenty years.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So think about the history of the NFC North versus
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: the NFC now like versus the NFC South. Like the
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Bears have six Hall of Famers in my lifetime, the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Packers have gone from one of the best quarterbacks of
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: all time to a guy who is better. The Vikings
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: have one of the most interesting narratives and stories in
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: football history, between losing all the Super Bowls, playing in
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: some of the most important games ever, playing outside now
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: playing inside, I always always choke and the Lions like,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: you can't get more traditional than the team that anchors
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Thanksgiving Day. I love it. No history, there's no tradition
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: with any of these teams in the NFC South every
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: year like they will anchor a corner TV game in
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: some sports book every single week. I do want to
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: talk about how I'm killing myself that me and you
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: didn't talk about Tebog getting released in h How do
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: we not bet that? How do we not bet his
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: under teeth? Like I remember looking at it and thinking
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: myself like there's no way he's going to make this team,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: and not a lot of talk. Listen, Matt Mitchell has
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: made it clear we can't talk about the FC South today.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: We're not allow to talk about the a f C South.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Next week we can talk about how much we don't
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: like the f C South as a division. Next week
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: we can only focus on the NFC South, and I
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: want to get into division odds, conference odds, super Bowl odds,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: and totals for each of these teams, improvements for each
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: of these teams. Obviously, the Bucks are gonna be interesting,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: But I do want you to give me your honest
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: take why you love this division. Is it because there's
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: always gambling opportunity And if you say yes, I have
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: a counter to that that proves my point or is
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: it something else? Um? I do love I mean that's
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: skewed a little bit. I love that there you have
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: two different teams here. We have Atlanta and the Saints
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: have both played into ours. So I mean, ever since
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Drew Brees got New Orleans, that offense has been incredible.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: And with Atlanta they had Mike Vick and then like
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan. So They's just I feel like this division
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: has always had good teams in it. And again, the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers, you can say what they want. They made
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: it the Super Bowl Jake alone, and they made the
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl of Camp. So it's just it feels like
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: it's a division that produces good teams. And again, like
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: you said, they're not, you know, the most glamorous teams.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: They're newer, they don't really get that like diehard fan
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: based all across the country. But I just always find
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: that it's good offensive teams in the NFC South. Look,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: I'm a fundamental guy. I'm not a glamorous guy. Right
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I live in the middle of Connecticut. I might be
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: a media superstar. I might have written seven books, four
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: of them best sellers. Chad Milman wrote a book. I
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: might have had glamorous, high profile positions. At some point,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: you would expect Milman will show some signs of nerves.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Hasn't done any of that so far. Tonight. I might
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: be famous. I might have left a hugely powerful job
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: to help launch a company that's sold three years later
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: for a quarter of a billion dollars where it is
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: where I had to make a movie. But in my heart,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: in my heart, I'm about the fundamentals. I have always
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: been someone who loves defense before offense. Now, I guess
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: since Captive run all night and to me, the fact
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: that this has always been a division built on offense
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: speaks to sort of the usfl nature of this division.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Versus what to me, the rest of the NFL is,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: which is hit people in the fucking mouth, get great
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: middle linebackers, run it up their fucking throat, and play
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: great defense. That's it. That to me is the NFL
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: that I think is nailing. Why why I've never liked
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: they are indoor teams playing track meets like that's it.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: That's why I don't like the NFC. South. You really
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: are Mike Tomlin. When I think of Chad, I think
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: of Mike Tomlin today. You ain't know that that's no
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: more now, you know what I mean? Dominate this one,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: regular guy. I was just done on a FaceTime with
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Patrick Keane, who is, as everyone knows, the CEO of
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. I don't know what you the polos
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: amateur bolltrap? All right? Do you hear, babe? Do you understand? Night?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: And I have to go in the city later today.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I gotta I'm gonna I gotta have dinner with somebody,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: and then I got breakfast with somebody. And after that,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: my older son is coming into the city. He's gonna
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: meet me. He's going to college in three weeks. We're
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: doing one last father son hurrah in the city. On
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Friday night and then we're gonna do a bunch of
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: things on Saturday during the day. Um, and I'm wearing
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: a black shirt with a collar shortly it's like a
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: polo type of shirt. And Patrick says to me, he goes,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: you're going to the city. I'm like yeah. He goes,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: you look good. I'm like thanks. He goes, you got
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: a new shirt on? I go no, he goes, that's right,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: you would never buy a new shirt. That's me, buddy,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: jokes on him, chat every shirt some days a new shirt.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Oh so true, my friend. All right, let's get to
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: the point. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are six and
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: a half to want to win the super Bowl, second
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: after the Chiefs. They are one to two to win
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: their division. Their season win total is twelve. There are
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: three to one to win the NFC conference title. New
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Orleans is thirty one to one to win the super Bowl.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Three to one to win a division nine is their
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: season win total, sixteen to one to win the conference,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Atlanta si to one, super Bowl eight to one, Division
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: seven and a half win total one Carolina on Conference
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Carolina eight to one, ten to one on the Division
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: seven and a half win total forty to one to
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: win the conference. I don't know about you. Moms are
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: bursting at the moment. How are we not all in
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: on Carolina at every level? Uh? Sam Donald, That's an
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: easy answer to that question. We really do. We really
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: not believe in Sam Donald so much that uh, that
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: we don't think this is a team we're taking a
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: flyer on. They're not because I'd rather do it on Atlanta,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: where I've seen Matt Ryan do it before. And I've
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: never seen Sam Donald put together back to back good
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: games and his entire career, like ever since he's been
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: on the Jets, I've never seen him have back to
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: back really good starts. He's kind of like a bipolar quarterback.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: He's good, then he's bad. He's bad, he's bad, and
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, he's good again. I have
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: high hopes from because he's so young. I feel like
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: maybe they can coach all his bad habits out of him.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: But like I told you, we were coming slowly becoming
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcon podcast. I don't want it to happen. I
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: hate Atlanta, but it's just one of those on paper,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: um like and my jobs to find you value that's
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the best value for this division. And we talked a
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago how I can't get over how
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: bad the public is at sports spending, the fact that
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are one of the highest bet teams this
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: year to repeat again. We haven't seen a repeat since
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I think Brady didn't know for like a long time
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: ago a repeat happened, and the same time last year
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: that the Bucks are twelve the one to win Super Bowl.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: They haven't changed at all from this year to last year.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: They're literally the exact same team, but now the odds
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: are cut in half just because of public perception that,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: you know, they just want a Super Bowl. People think
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: they're clearly the best team the NFC, where I don't.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: And it's just one of these where if you're just
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: looking at value, the Buccaneers have zero value. They're they're
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: literally a Tom Brady injury away. I mean, you could
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: say for every team that they're injury away for the quarterback.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: But no team has a quarterback that's forty four years
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: old entering this season except the Buccaneers. And I get it,
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady made amazing plays ast year. We talked all
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: the time, Chad all the little things have to go
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: right for the Buccaneers and win that Super Bowl last year.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: And it's just so dumb that people are they're just
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: hurting themselves bett in this number, because again, if they
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: just wait a month into the season, I promise you're
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: gonna have better odds. There's just no way the Buccaneers
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: starting the year four. Now we've just seen it that
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: even last year they were't a great regular season team.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: They lost to your Bears at home. Tom Brady forgot
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: what down it was. We saw them barely beat the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Giants late in the season. The Giants are an awful team.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So it's one of these where I think people are
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: just really hyped because of the off season what we
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: saw last year from the Buccaneers that any team you
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: bet in this division you're getting good value on simply
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: because the hype is so high right now in the Buccaneers.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: And again, I just don't think that they're one of
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: these teams that deserve it. That I love Tom Brady,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: but I just don't think they're a regular season team.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: We saw last year. There are a playoffs. They made
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: good plays in the playoffs, but the regular season they
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: were lacking a lot of games. So for me, it's
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: it's definitely a value based bet here taking Atlanta win
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: this division of plus seven hundred. That's so interesting. I
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: do want to say, UH shout out to uh John
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Fricky and Hugh Douglas morning radio hosts in Atlanta. For
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the past two years. I've been going on Atlanta Radio
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: every morning at eight forty Eastern every week during the
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: pandemic all the time. Yesterday, UH I got fired from
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Radio and from my segment, and UH I got
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: a call they said they wanna start using somebody else.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Uh it's the company that owns the radio station. Is
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Odyssey used to be known as Intercom. We had to
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: deal with Intercom for me. Stucky Colin Wilson a bunch
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: of people to do radio hits on enter Com stations
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: for the two thousand nineteen football season and it was
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: all over the country right there, like thirty stations. You know,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: there are a bunch of us doing it. I was
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: doing a bunch of them. And when the season ended,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the deal was up, Like at the end of two
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: thousand nineteen, early in two thousand twenty, the deal was up.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I expected them to stop calling me, but two stations
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: kept calling me and every week eight forty in Atlanta,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: nine o'clock in Baltimore, every single week, and I'm like, okay,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Like, if they want to keep calling me,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: it's ten minutes. I'll keep talking. I like the guys,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: this guy John Freaky in Atlanta knows everything about gambling.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Clearly from the first time we spoke, he was like more,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: he understood more about sports betting than anyone I was
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: talking to. So I kept doing it. They kept calling
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: during the pandemic. They called every week last season, they
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: kept calling every week this season. I let them know
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: when I'm going on vacations so they didn't call me.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Like yesterday, on Monday, I get a call from a
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: buddy of mine there who's a high ranking executive. He's like, so,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: it turns out at the at the national level, we
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: didn't realize you were still doing the shows, and they
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: bought a company that is focused on sports betting, and
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: they want to use those people, so we can't use
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: you anymore. I'm like, okay, But every single I'm like,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised I was still doing it. I can't believe
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: you guys do this long to call me and tell
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: me to stop doing the show. And um, every single
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: week I went on Atlanta Radio, I would all I
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: would do was ripped the Atlanta Falcons. That's it. That's
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: been me ever since the Super Bowl. I just felt
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: like that team was broken and it's one of those
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: things where they did it. They've done a cleanse. Now
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: they're putting up gen rid of all these guys from
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: that team. Um, again we talked about the off seas.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't let you bet on them because I just
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: every year people have bet on Atlanta. I'm just like,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: this is a loser franchise. But I just love the
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: value that they're getting this year, just because it's one
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: of those where people have the same mentality we've had
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: for the last three or four years, like these guys suck.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Why bet anything on Atlanta? Where I look at Arthur
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Smith and I think myself, Okay, is this the year
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: I can get the advantage of betting this guy where
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: it's his first you're in Atlanta, no one's seen it coming.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Everyone's still you know, we're not really sure about the
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Saints because again, the Saints won this division last year.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: They were two and oh against the Bucks in the
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: regular season. They dominated them in the regular season. UM.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: So it is interesting where the Saints are still what
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: let's see their plus three thirty to win this division
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: on vandal It's interesting to me that that that odds
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: are three thirty in Atlanta's plus seven hundred. I mean
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: to me, the Saints that I know where the quarterback
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: is right now, and the fact that they have the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: second highest odds, it just feels like you're getting really
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: good value here on the simple fact that people just
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: do not want to bet Atlanta and they're tired of Atlanta.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: And it's one of the things where we might be
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: able to get a year early before people catch up
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: to this team and get on this train. So plus
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: seven hundred chat, that's that's crazy good value that you're
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: You're completely turning me around. Um And I do think
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: we have to have an Arthur Smith conversation because we
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: we talk a lot about the Titans and and this
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: was before the Ryan Tannehill conversation. UM, I mean before
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz had injured had injured his foot, and there
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: was uncertainty about when is he gonna play, and we
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: all thought Carson Wentz to be playing and we thought
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: there'd be a step up with the Colts with Carson
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: wentz Um, and we thought in Frank Right and as
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the coach, we thought there'd be a step down for
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill because he lost Arthur Smith. And I feel
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: like if our logic is going to be Arthur Smith
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: was that important for Ryan Tannehill even as a head coach,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: he can still have an impact on Matt Ryan and
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the offense, then we need to give them a bump up, right,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Like we have to invest in the Arthur Smith if
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: we're going to divest from the Titans because he's not
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: there anymore. And also the Titans, do you not that
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: they're panicking, but they signed Julio That's a move where
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: they're just like, Okay, even though we're gonna have a
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: j Brown, we already bested a high draft pick and
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Corey Davis. We need to go out there and get
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Julio Jones because we just need to make sure that
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: tan Hill is everything he needs to have the best year.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Where they did the zac same thing on Lanta Elena.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I still not over the fact they passed on Justin Fields.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: I don't get it at all. Matt Ryan has just
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: been a corpse in this league ever since that Super
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Bowl run. And like it's the fact that they did
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: that shows this front offense is in a win now mode. Okay,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: they passed on the quarterback of the future with the
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: they have a veteran quarterback where they're paying I mean,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. It might be forty million this
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: year to Matt Ryan. He I think he's the highest
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: paid quarterback in the league or maybe number two. And
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: the fact they took Pitts, who, again, the hype is
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: so real in this kid. Like all the fantasy guys
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: they have him projected it to have the greatest rookie
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: season ever as a tight end, which again Chead, we
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: know that just doesn't happen. We we talked about it before.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: My whole reason of being down on pitch was just because, Okay,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: the best three tight ends of football right now Kelsey
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: fifth round pick, Kittle, fifth round pick, Waller. I think
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: he was drafted and got cut by the ball part.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Ravens got picked up by Oakland. That's the top Vegas.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Vegas picked up by Vegas. Damn it um. But yeah,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: it's it's just one of those. That's only reason I
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: was so down the pits thing, but now that he's
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: on the team, I can't deny the talent. This kid
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: is unreal. I mean just watching their practice footage, he
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: does not drop the ball. Anything that's in his radius,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: he's gonna catch it. Okay. And now we have Calvin
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Ridley as well, who is graded out as a top
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: five pass catcher and football. Now that he's running that show,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: like again, his eyes have been been up really high
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: to lead the league in yards. So if I'm just
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: going on base offense of the talent they have and
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: now bringing in Arthur Smith, who I think a really
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: smart offensive mine, I mean, chat, how can ween not
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: bet this team. It's just one of these things where
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: the arrow is just putting up in so many different
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: ways for this Atlanta Falcon team. Oh my god, you
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: have totally convinced me. It's it's it's making me crazy.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Let's keep focusing on Atlanta for one more second. We're
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: not betting on Atlanta sixty for to one to win
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I mean I did, but like it's
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: hard for me, Yeah, but it was. It was even
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: better odds than that. I think it was at seventy
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: one at that point that I got it. But it's
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: one of those where I haven't posted in the app
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: because it's I don't want people to do it. It's
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: it's honestly, like one of these bets I'm I'm making
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: by I truly have zero confidence in because I I
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: just think that how can you come back from three?
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: I just I I just can't see a team ever
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: coming back to that. So they might make the playoffs,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: but it's gonna be in the fourth quarter, Matt Ryan's
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: gonna be up six points and he's gonna throw some
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: picks six or something terrible. Because like, it's just one
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: of these things that that has to be haunting someone
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: for the rest of their life. So that's why I, like,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't recommend betting them for the Super Bowl for
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: best odds and value. I think it's just divisional wise,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: it's plus that plus seven hundreds by far the best
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: value for this team. I mean, someday somebody on that team,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have to relieve themselves from the stench of
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: that Super Bowl. It can't be a legacy that hangs
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: on the team year after year, after the coach is gone,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: after the quarterback is gone, Chad, what was that a
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: hundred years? You're not wrong. I mean, you know how
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: these things work. Man. It's like again, as an Eagles fan,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I still can't believe it took us with a backup
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: quarterback to take down Tom Brady for us to win
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: a super Bowl. It's like for you to get over
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: a curse. Teams need a miracle, and I don't know,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: I just can't see Atlanta having a miracle. They don't.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: It feels like we're twenty years away from Atlanta getting
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, that that's the next regime. But I do
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: like what they're doing for this year alone. All right,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: So eight to one, God, you've got me totally seven
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: seven to one, You've got me totally convinced that that
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: is the team to bet in the NFC South Value
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Best Value Tampa one to two, uh, New Orleans three
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: to one, Atlanta seven to one. Caroline attended one. UH.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: The total on um UH Atlanta is seven and a
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: half to one. If you like him at seven to
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: one to win the division, should we also be betting
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: them over seven and a half. Yeah? The wind sold
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: was interesting. They have seven a half and so does Carolina.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: It was kind of interesting. With the bookmakers say, Okay,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: one of these teams isn't is you know, probably gonna
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: win four games. You guys have to figure out which
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: one that is. So for me, just look on paper
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: and the coaching staffs. Again, nothing against Matt Rule. I
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: thought he did a great job there last year. They've
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: had have plenty of tough games, especially with Teddy Bridgewater
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: as a quarterback. But I cannot do it, cannot back
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald. I just I need to see it to
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: believe it. I'm one of those people where like I
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: might miss a year and I might be late on that,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: but I feel safe for betting against it than betting Ford.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: So for them, I'm on the Underworth Carolina. I was
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: actually liked the over on the Saints, but now going
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: through the roster losing Michael Thomas, they've lost two d tackles. Um,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: it doesn't sound like a big deal. That's a huge
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: deal for that team because they didn't really have great
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: backups to start with for their for their D line.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: So I know the Saints that when the best old
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: lines on football. I am a believer that they're gonna
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: change everything. They're gonna make it. The offense towards Taysom
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Hill again, we saw him start the preseason Game one,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: even though he's still the under, the underdog start Week one. UM,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: I cannot take the Saints over nine anymore. It's one
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: of those where it feels like this will be a
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: rebuilding year where I was kind of high on the
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Saints that, Okay, they have the pieces in place, it
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: seems like they're just gonna have a season from hell.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: They're gonna have a lot of injuries. They're gonna have,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: you know, just woes with Taysom Hill because like we
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: just watching that preseason game, he does not look like
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: a legit starter. And then when Winston came in again,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Winston looked terrible. But I cannot see Sean Payton starting
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: a guy who throw thirty interceptions in the season for
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: a whole year. He just does not fit that offense.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: So again I'm gonna fade that as well. And with
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, I have to bet the under. I mean
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: it's rare. It's rare you have a team like Kansas
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: City Chiefs last year. I think they're fourteen and two. Um,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: that was crazy, Like the fact that they won a
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl and in the following year they are fourteen
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: to two. I think that says more about again the
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: division they were in and the kind of stuff they're
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: playing against with the Chiefs where this year the Buccaneers,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: they're the young one, the youngest teams in all football. Again,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: they have Tom Brady, Okay, he's a great leader. That
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: defense is incredibly young. The offensive line is very young
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: as well. So for me, if I need to fade
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: a team coming off the Super Bowl, I want to
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: fade a team that's very young. Again, we saw it
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: happen in the forty nine years. They made it two
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. They completely fell apart the next year because
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: they were a young team. We saw with the Rams
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: and they were a young team they made always two
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl they kind of fell apart the following season.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm betting on. I'm trying of betting
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: on the over, the overturn of the league and the
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: fact that everyone in their grandma as we've been on
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: the buck this year, they're they're just such a high
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: team because they brought back every single starter. So that's
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: what my job is. People, my job trying to find
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: value on betting against these kind of things because it
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: happens a lot these teams used. It just does not
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: work out the way people think it's gonna work out. So,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: just on value alone, I have to bet the Buccaneers
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: under it, just because that's such a high number for them.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I think it's what twelve now for their one. Yeah,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: it's too high, so I have to I have to
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: take that under again. I get it. People seventeen game schedule,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: I know, but it's one of those where eleven and
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: seven sounds or eleven and six sounds more normal than
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: them going twelve and five or twelve, and you know,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: it's just really hard for them to get above that
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: one tour. That's why Vegas sets it at that number
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: because they know people are gonna betting that over. Yeah,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: at this point with the bus, you're not fading the
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: box is a team so much as you're fading the public.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: And what it's done to the number. I mean one
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: to two to win the division, that's ridiculous. I don't
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: know that there's any other division where the odds that
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: we should look this up on the Action Network app.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: It's free, it's award winning. People should check it out.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna look right now, at every other conference.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: A f C North Nope Ravens plus one fifteen to
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: win the division. A f C South UH Titans are
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty, all right, so they're a little bit
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: they're not quite one to two. They're one to one fifty.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: UM A f C East Bills minus one fifty. Okay, UH,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: NFC North Packers minus one six five. This will be
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: a key test right here. A f C West Kansas
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: City minus to seventy. So there you go. It's that
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: that's the one team that UH is a bigger favorite
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: to win their division than the Buccaneers Dallas plus one
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: thirty in the NFC East and in the NFC West
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: San Francisco plus Okay. It's a good little exercise right there. Uh.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: That shows how dominant the Chiefs are, because I mean,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: does any team getting more hyped in the Chargers and
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: they're in their own division, they're still big of a
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: favorite where we have nothing like that in this division.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: There is no No one's hyping up Atlanta, no one's
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: hyping up Carolina. No it's hyping up the Saints. It's
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: kind of one of these divisions where people are looking
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: to go it's the Bucks let's move on to the
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: next one. It's just that's that's what I'm looking for.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for these division When people look at that, yeah,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: that's an easy once the Buccaneers and they just move
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: on to the next one where again, Oh my god,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: I can't believe this has turned into an Atlanta Falcons podcast.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: You're not even kidding, because if we're looking at this division,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: you've already taken the Falcons. You said it's seventy to
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: one to win the super Bowl. You like them at
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: seven to one to win the division. You like they're
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: over seven and a half win total, so you must
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: like one to win the conference? Like it. And I also,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: we got our good friend man. Don't you're here reaching
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: out to us? Do you want me to read these
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: betch chatter? Do you want to read them all? Because
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: I know you love these Matt Ryan props. Dude, I
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: was gonna get there. I'm i'm, i'm, i'm I'm unpacking
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: the entirety of the team, and then I want to
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: get to the Matt Ryan props. So give me your
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: answer on the conference and then I want to get
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: to Matt Ryan. Of course I bet that if I
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: if I bet SUPERO. I bet conference as well. But
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: again it's it's one of these where I don't feel
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: confident in giving it out. That's why I don't put
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: in the app. Like again, this is Atlanta Falcons podcast.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: We're also on Miami Dolphins podcast. I'm gonna be hyping
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: out Miami all year that when I did give out,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: I did give them out to when the Super Bowl
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: because I believe in their defense. And that's That's one
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: of these things where if I'm gonna be betting a
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl future at this point of the year, I
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: have to believe in a defense, and people, you can
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: do your own research. I don't have to tell you
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's defense is horrible. This is an awful, awful defense.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: So it's one of these where I'm betting on the
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: offense and the quarterback and I can't. I can't give
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: out Super Bowl futures to a team that, again, their defense,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I have them graded out on the bottom five. So
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: it's hard for me to tell people to bet those
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: those long shot futures just because of that. All right, Well,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: then let's talk about Matt Ryan because you mentioned Kyle Pits,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: you talked about Calvin Ridley, Calvin Ridley, in the sort
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: of earlier in the off season, had much longer odds
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: to lead the league in receiving yards. He's down to
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: about six to one best odds, but I think he
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: was at eighteen or but now. But what's interesting is
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan's odds to lead the league in passing yards
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: have not improved greatly. He's a thirteen to one at FanDuel.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: That feels like an auto bet to me. Uh. He's
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: at thirty eight to one to have the most passing
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: touchdowns and the over under on his total yards is
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: four thousand, five hundred and fifty point five. I don't
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: know how I feel about the total yardage, but well,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: I guess I I guess I feel good about it
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: because I think you're gonna need more than yards to
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: lead the league in passing and I feel good it
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: about betting him att one to leave the league in
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: passing yards. I like those um of a simple thing
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: we talked about last year with Shaun Watson. He was
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: on an awful team with an awful defense, he led
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: the league in passing yards. So this year, I mean,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: guys are really staying out, are Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, and then Trevor Lawrence, who also has a
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: terrible defense. You're just looking for guys that they're gonna
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: be throwing the ball a lot, because again, last year,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: before you got hold Joe Burrow, I think he was
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: like third in passing yards before he got because the
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Bengals defense was horrible and he was throwing it like
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: fifty times a game. So that's what people need to
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: look out these passing yards things. You're not looking for
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the guy like Mahomes. We know mo Homes the best.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: We know him and Brady are the best. This is
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: not something they're gonna win. There are two good of
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: teams with too good a defense to win this kind
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: of thing. So I actually really liked that thirty eight
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: to one most passing TVs on Vanduel. That's that's pretty
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: tasty because again we saw a Tannhall last year. Tanna
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: had a lot of quick passes inside the red zone.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: And I don't know that that uh that four to
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: one m v P, I don't know if I do
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: that one because I don't know if they could enough
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: win lost record to win that, and uh, I don't know.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: I just don't feel like the value is good enough
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: because I feel like Matt ran should be me lower
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: than that, like he should be fifty two one, just
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: because it's been so long since we've seen him play
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: at m VP level. It just feels like that's that's
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: been bet up a little bit before you to one.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: But do you like Matt Ryan one for the most
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: passing yards. I feel like that's some bed down as well.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: I would take it. I mean, like looking at the
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: list of the guys ahead of him, it's it's a
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: fair value. Like Justin Herbert's right ahead of him. Um,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: tom Brady's ahead of him. That's an awful bet. Tom
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Brady lead the league in passing yards. Again, the guy
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: is forty four years old. Okay, he ain't leading the
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: league in passing yards. That team is gonna be wrong.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: The ball a lot um Josh Allen to lead the
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: league in passing yards. Josh Allen plays outdoor in northern
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: New York. People don't be so dumb to make these
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: kind of bets. Like, just take a steck back and
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: think for a second. I really betting Josh Allen the
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: lead to leave in passing No, that that's not a
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: thing built to happen. Matt Ryan plays half the games indoors.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: That's that's what you're looking for. You you're looking for
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: people the best situations. Again last year to Shaun Watson,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: he played indoor. We've seen and Drew Brees multiple years
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: leading the league in passing he played indoor. That's the
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: kind of things you're looking for. People just don't try
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: to overthink these things. It's so simple, but people just go, oh, well,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: it's Josh Allen. He was up for m v P
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: last year. Of course, I'll bet him the lead to
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: lead in passing yards. You don't want to do that.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: You're trying to look for the best long shot and
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: best odds. So I don't hate that Matt Ryan, but
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: he's been beat down at one. I definitely saw him
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: at twenty to one earlier in the year. All right,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: then I'm taking Matt Ryan to one to lead the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: league in passing touchdowns. I love it. I love it unconditionally,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: like I love Matt Mitchell. That's how I feel about
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: that prop right now. Uh not is he playing half
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: his games inside? Who play more than that? Because who
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: have games against the Saints inside? Then? Uh two other
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: games for other games will be in comfortable weather in
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Tampa and Carolina. And he's throwing to Calvin Ridley, He's
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: throwing to Kyle Pitts. I don't know how Matt Ryan
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: isn't the odds un favorite for every passing total prop
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: and again, people four, they came a fourth place in
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: their division, fourth place schedule. That's a big deal. Like
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: you just heard the team's Chad mentioned trash. That's what
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be playing again. So I'm with you, Chad.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: I'm told you, I'm way too hyped. I'm way too
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: hyped Ay Atlanta and Miami Dolphins. It's like one of
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: these things where I might have to bang us from
• 32:45
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• 34:32
  Speaker 1: talk about Sam Donald and Carolina one ten to one
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: in the Division seven and a half season win total
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: forty to one and win the conference. I know you
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: don't like any of these things. You've already said you
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: liked the under you're against Sam Donald. This to me
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: is where my innate fundamentals. I'm your average guy. I
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: love Matt Rule as a coach, and I'm willing to
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: bet on Matt Rule figuring something out to make this
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: team to will this team to eight wins. And that's
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: all fair. But the biggest problem, like again I'm talking
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: about about Sam Donald, I bet him in a D
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: one to win m v P. Do I believe in
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: that at all? No, just like I don't believe in
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: Trey Lance win m VP. But I can't not bet it.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: It's one of these I only have to hit it
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: once every hundred years and I'm good, so I don't know.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: It's one of these where I get what you're saying.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: I love the head coach, but the defense has been
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: totally rebuilt. They're very young on the defensive side and
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: then all offensive side nothing against Christian McCaffrey, but he
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: went out that team really didn't miss a beat. They're
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: kind of like good and bad, the same team they
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: were before Christian McCaffrey. So of course he's an upgrade
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: over last year's running back, but it's not that big
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: of an upgrade to that team in general. And for
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: them to be really good, they're gonna need same Donald
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: take a step that he's never taken. Okay, he's I
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: think this is your four, now your five. Being in
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: this league, I just have to bet against it. It's
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: one of these things where again, if he had just
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: shown me a good season, like Carson Wentz showed me
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: one good season. That's why they I'm finally believing that
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: corson Wentz and him working out for the Colts. Sam
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Donald's they're even sniffed that he's never even I think
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: thrown over twenty touchdowns in the season Herbert through twenty
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: eight touchdowns last year. I guess what, we know Herbert's
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: got it. We don't think Sam Donald's got it. That's
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the problem where it's like you can be surrounded by trash,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: talent's gonna usually win out, and it's one of these
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: where I was way too high on him coming out
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: of college. I thought the brown has made a terrible
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: decision when the Browns passed on him they took Baker.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Who's to say still okay, neither of these guys like
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Baker didn't even sign a new contract yet, so who
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: really knows if the Browns even believe in Baker. But
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Baker has been better than Sam Donald. He's He's definitely
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: looked better and been a better professional. So it's one
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: of these where Caroline, I think there's still a year
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: away that this will be one of those years where
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: they're gonna try to have him figure out that offense,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: kind of get rid of all his demons from the Jets.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: And this defense needs another year to improve because again
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: it's a brand new defense. They literally last year they
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: drafted nine different guys for this defense. So it's one
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: of these where I'm gonna I'm gonna take a year
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: and wait on this Panthers team because I do think
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: their future is great, but this year they're just too
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: far behind the other teams in this division. Here's what
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say, I disagree with you. I don't think
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald is a year away. I think that he
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: probably has more potential then we believe we have seen
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: on the field, and he is being put in the
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: right position to execute against that. And because he is
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: playing against defenses that just aren't very good, he's going
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: to get a chance to prove himself and probably sneak
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: a couple of wins in ways that we probably didn't
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: expect from Sam Donald given what we've seen from him
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: so far. So I am going to go against you
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Simon respectfully, respect al g respect but I think the
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Panthers go over seven and a half wins. Wow. I
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: mean again, it's it's just one of the things where
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: you're going against history. The only quarterback we've seen leave
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: a team to go another team and improved was Tannehill.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: It feels like over the last twenty years, that's it.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Don you think of anyone else. I defy history. Uh,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: current Warner went from the St. Louis Rams to the
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Giants to the Arizona Cardinals. You could argue he improved
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: from the Giants to the Arizona Cardinals. That's fair, But
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: it's also one of those where it's like, I know,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: but Sam Donald didn't take a team to the Super
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Bowl beforehand. You know, uh, what about I'm telling you
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: have to go way back because that's the way the
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: NFL is now. It's like you're David Carr. You might
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: be all the world in college, you come to the league,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: you get sacked five years straight and the rest of
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: your life. If you're seeing ghosts, it's just one of
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: these things. They can't coach it out of the guys.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: That's my fear of Sam Donald. I can't know what
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: you're saying. You're you're trying to bring in the seeing
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: ghosts comment into the podcast just to denigrate my choice
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: of the Carolina Panthers going over seven and a half wins.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: It's just mean, Simon, are you kidding me? The guy
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: asked for something spooky, he said, give me something spooky. Um.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: I think we've kind of said everything we need to
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: say about the NFC South because there's not that much
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: to say about Tampa. You've said it fade everything. You're
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: just gonna fade the public on Tampa Bay New Orleans.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: We don't have a lot of faith in right now
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: because we still don't know what they're gonna do. You
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: expect somewhat of a Taysom Hill oriented offense. You expect
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: it to be focused on him, but there's still a
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: lot of question marks. So we are going to be
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons fans. We're gonna go in on Matt Ryan
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: at thirty eight to one for the most passing touchdowns.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go in on Atlanta eight to one the
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: wind of vision, win of it to win the division.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: We're going to go in on Atlanta over seven and
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: a half wins. I love it, you bet. I think
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: tonight for this preseason game, are you just like going
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: to New York. I'm not been this preseason game to
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: New York. I'm not even thinking about it. Well, in
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: case people don't check the Action app, which again I've
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: sold out big time people. Now I don't pust plays
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: on Twitter. I put him in the Action app for
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: checking straight. Um, I have one player for this upcoming weekend.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: I did the Miami Dolphins parlayd with the Tennessee Titans.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: So it's um, whatever, I bet too grand and win
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: four grand. Uh so you know, not bad to units
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: for uh? Two units went four units people. So it's
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: one of these where I know the Buccketeers are sitting
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: their starters and I've seen Atlanta. Atlanta's backups are terrible
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: and they're not playing starters either, So I do like
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Miami Tennessee in a parlay this weekend. By the way,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I remember what I wanted to say when you said it.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: You said that you have a one and twenty one
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: bet on Sam Donald to win the m v P.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Don't give me your fucking units. How much did you
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: bet on Sam Donald? At a hundred? Always a grand
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: if I ever, if I ever post an NFL future,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: it's always just a straight grand because it's easier to
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: track where I bet a grand. I went a D
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: twenty kt. That's easy to track to me betting k
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: and winning whatever is seventy five thousand, so it's it's
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: or yeah again. I came to the math out of
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: my head. It's one of these things where I like
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: just doing a thousand because it's cleaner and it's easier
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: for me to hedge long term. Like we talked last year,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: when I did I bet the Buccaneers three different times,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: I just bet it each time for grand. Each it
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: was at fifty odds one odds, four to one odds,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: and thirty five to one odds, So it's one of
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: these where I just like doing the grand again Trey Lance.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: I'm never gonna see that grand I let that money
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: on fire. I get that people, But it's one of
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: these things where I like to hit it once every
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: hundred years. That's why I make these kind of bets
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: where it's like it doesn't make sense. But that year
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: already three made that crazy run. I had to heade
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: it out and I was able to make a nice
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: penny on r G three's rookie year, almost whining the
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: m v P. So it's one of these things where
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: I try to just take advantage of the situations I'm
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: in where crazy long shot odds they don't might not
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: make sense to people in August, but then all of
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: a sudden December, it's like, holy shit, you know, Trey
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Lance is six to one now m v P. Like
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: it's one of these things that's when I'm betting on
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: I'm betting on the crazy upside of these different players.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: I explained to my wife last week, and by the way,
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: I do want people to follow Simon in the Action
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Network gap. He mentioned that he's not putting the picks
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: on Twitter because he's a total corporate sellout now go
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: download the free award winning action network Gap used the
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: follow features search Simon underscore Hunter. You will find all
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: of his picks, uh, and you'll be better for it.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I told my wife the other day, we were having dinner,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: and I was explaining to her that I can't. I
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: think I might have said this right, like, I will
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: never be able to be the kind of investor that
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: people are, the kind of better that you are, because
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not waking up in the morning and trying to
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: track everything that's happening in the markets overnight and seeing
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: the value we're thinking about. Will trade Lance end up
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: having a great year in six months? Can I fake?
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: Can I? Can I heage out of this? What can
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: I do with it? Um? Kudos to you, Simon Hunter
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: and and just some people don't worry about it. We
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: are when we do our contest here, we are going
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: to put those picks on Twitter whatever, whatever picks we
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: used for the contest upcoming season. I'm just saying, like,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: if I make bets right now in the preseason or
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: anything like that I'm putting in the app, I don't,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna put it on Twitter. That's just what
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: I'm saying, Like, We will keep putting the contest on
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Twitter because I know people are freaking out about that
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: because we have people in England they can't get the app. Relax,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: we are gonna be putting our picks on Twitter. It's
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: just easier for people to track in the app. There
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: will be five picks that we put on Twitter every
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: single week. Uh. And as partly, you know, we're part
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: of the Volume podcast Network. UH, and we're gonna incorporate
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: the five picks we talk about into a podcast I'm
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: doing with Colin during the football season where I'm gonna
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: let him know what we're thinking. He's gonna I'm gonna
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: judge what he's thinking. Uh. And the reason we're doing
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: this podcast two times a week is because what we're
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: thinking about on Tuesday and then what we're thinking about
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: on Thursday lines changed so much. Show. You got to
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: listen to both podcasts if you want to be up
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: to date. This has been the favorite podcast from the
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman. He is my compadre,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Uh. Down on the podcast and Spotify upper
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: podcast rate Review, Subscribe, tell us you love us, We're needy.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you