Latest / Financial Survival Network / The Bubble Balancing Act - Michael Pento #6089
Transcript
- 0:00I look at the debt of the United States. I look at the asset
- 0:03bubbles that exist in corporate debt and commercial real estate, and I look at
- 0:09the app asset bubble in collateralized loan obligations and private credit. I look at
- 0:15all these bubbles and I say they're unprecedented, and they're concurrent. So we
- 0:21have you know, through reshtorating, we've had times when there's been a bubble
- 0:26in the stock market. Right in two thousand, there was no bubble in
- 0:30debt to GDP, there was no bubble in corporate credit, there was no
- 0:34bubble in real estate. It was just a Nasdaq bubble. But that bubble
- 0:38burst with a procession and having a Nasak drop by eighty percent. You were
- 0:43listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just
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- 1:00get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,
- 1:10and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Grriy Lutz.
- 1:15Michael Pento's with us now Michael, it's been a little while since we
- 1:19last spoke of things that, well, the stock market's going up, we
- 1:23should be we should all be taking out the champagne now because our paper wealth
- 1:27goes up by the day. Right. But yeah, if you're you know,
- 1:33I gotta tell you the facts are that this is this most scary market.
- 1:38And I'm in the business thirty three years, Kerrie, this is the
- 1:41most scary market I've ever been in. And that's why I thank God for
- 1:45the UH his help and create I think it's his help creating the inflation,
- 1:49deflation and economic cycle model, because if I didn't have a model that had
- 1:53me, like had early warning signs of what I need to know, the
- 1:59are Caine warning signs for when this market's ready to crack and you need to
- 2:04get out of harm's way, I wouldn't be able to participate in this bubble.
- 2:06But let's just talk about the bubble here. So this is the most
- 2:08narrow market I've ever seen in my thirty three years and and throughout historically studying
- 2:15the history of markets. I mean, usually when you have markets that are
- 2:19just one sector you think about, you know, dot Com or nifty to
- 2:23fifty or AI, and that's dangerous. But when you have a market that's
- 2:28just really one stock, one stock, that's in fact, I was looking
- 2:32at in Vidio's percentage of the of the GDP of this country. It's ten
- 2:39percent. It's marketing cap. It is ten percent of the GDP of this
- 2:45country. And you can find it with Apple and Microsoft, the the big
- 2:47three. It's like one third of the entire country's output in three stocks.
- 2:54And then I think, think about the market cap of GDP as a percentage
- 2:59of market cap of equities as a percentage of GDP. Excuse me, that's
- 3:02not one hundred and ninety percent now, it's it's only been higher in one
- 3:07instance, which was a little bit about two hundred percent, right after the
- 3:12helicopter money was deployed post COVID. So just for a reference, in two
- 3:20thousand and seven, the total market cap of equities to GDP was a bit
- 3:23above one hundred. So you know, we're almost two times higher because of
- 3:29all the money they printed, borrowed and printed. I should add, and
- 3:37when you have a market this rally, it always ends in disaster. So
- 3:39just so I can wrap up this thought, you have AI and Nvidia.
- 3:45That's causing people to believe, oh, the market's doing fantastic. Wow,
- 3:49everybody's getting you know, wealthy. But if you just look under the surface,
- 3:54the equal weight S and P five hundred RSP is up four percent this
- 4:00year. Four percent. It's not horrible, but it isn't Nvidia, I
- 4:03carry and the Russell two thousand, which is more than one stock, right,
- 4:09two thousand stocks that's down on the ear. So that's when you pull
- 4:15people and you say, well, how are you doing in the stock market.
- 4:16How's the market doing. How are you doing well? People say,
- 4:19well, it's in a bear market and we're in a recession. Because if
- 4:26you just look at a very small narrow slize of the market, things look
- 4:30great. But if you look at in reality, most of the market is
- 4:35down or at least unchanged on the year, unchanged it down. And if
- 4:42you call people on the phone and say, hey, do you have a
- 4:44job, well, no, I don't. But if you if you look
- 4:46at the headline figure from the non front payer report, things are going great.
- 4:50Yeah, hey, you know the politicians have saved the market here,
- 4:58Michael right should be grateful. Well, I mean I had this conversation very
- 5:03recently with a client perspective client actually, and he asked me a question.
- 5:10He asked me an interesting question, Kerry. He said, well, you
- 5:13know, we both agree we're a cord that you know, things are artificially
- 5:16inflated and it's very dangerous out there. And how can you invest stock market
- 5:21and any confidence? And he said, Michael, when the next crisis comes,
- 5:29what if they just print it all away like they always do? And
- 5:33I said, yeah, that's a good question. But what makes this time
- 5:39different than every other time since nineteen eighty seven when the FED decided they could
- 5:44just monetize away the problem after the eighty seven crash. Well, there's two
- 5:48things different. First, the first one that's different is the US economy,
- 5:54and more precisely, US Treasury isn'tsolvent's solvent. You have a trillion dollar interest
- 6:00payments on the debt, on the deficit. You have two trillion dollar deficits.
- 6:05You have debt outstanding that is seven hundred and twenty five percent higher than
- 6:13the revenue that you collect every year. You have an in solid nation.
- 6:16So the idea that you can just start on this massive borrowing spree to combat
- 6:21a combat or recession, you know, you risk you risk really aggravating the
- 6:27bond vigilanties, and an interest rates might not go down. And the other
- 6:31difference this time is this for the first time since eighty seven. The problem,
- 6:35the salient issue is inflation already to start. Inflation is still way above
- 6:41the Fed's target. Three point three percent isn't two, it's its rate of
- 6:46change. Second derivative is down from nine. But if you look at the
- 6:50University of Michigan's consumer sentiment, it shows that people are very much aware that
- 6:57their living standards have been destroyed over the last four years. They're not interested.
- 7:02They're not interested in inflation coming down more slowly. In other words,
- 7:09just let me rephrase that to me more eg accurate. They're not interested in
- 7:12having inflation going up more slowly than it was. They want prices to fall,
- 7:17They need prices to drop, they don't need them to go up more
- 7:21slowly from an already unaffordable level which is much higher than two percent target.
- 7:27So that's the problem. It's a big problem here, and it doesn't look
- 7:33like anybody really cares about it anymore. The candidates, the politicians, nobody
- 7:41seems to care less about it. Michael, Well, they do care.
- 7:45I mean they can't. You know they care, You know what, they
- 7:46care enough to write a letter. Elizabeth Warren wrote a letter to Jerome Powell,
- 7:53and Jerome Powell is antsy and recklessly looking forward to cutting rates again.
- 8:01Elizabeth Wore wrote a letter with three other Democratic senators say please please start cutting
- 8:07interest rates now because it'll make housing more affordable. I mean, what,
- 8:11carry, These are the people we elected to represent us in Congress. You
- 8:18want to cut interest rates so housing becomes more affordable? What a moron?
- 8:24I mean, housing prices went up fifty percent in the last four years because
- 8:28interest rates went to zero. The ten year surgery was taking a third zero
- 8:31point three to three percent post COVID, and that caused everybody to buy.
- 8:37What do you do? What do you do? In interest rates are free?
- 8:39Carry you borrow a lot of money? Yeah, so, Elizabeth,
- 8:43Elizabeth, maybe your interest rate might be and we just talked about the fact
- 8:48that it might not be because of inflation and insolvency issues, credit and inflation
- 8:52issues. Maybe your interest rate might be lower if you cut short term intrabank
- 8:56lending rates. Elizabeth, but our whole price is going to go down.
- 9:03Start cutting into strength. Not a chance no, no, So once again
- 9:09main Street, mainstream loses and Wall Street wins well, and the Wall Street
- 9:13crybaby, this kills me to the Wall stream cry babies. We need you
- 9:18know, you know this. The Barry Stern licks are out there of the
- 9:22running these real estate Investment trust Please cut rates, please, it's it's so
- 9:30despicable, it's disgusting when you when are we going to start caring about the
- 9:35average you know, middle class person who actually does the working in this country.
- 9:39Yeah, they actually do the producing in this country, not the people
- 9:43who own assets, not the poor who are collecting welfare, the people who
- 9:50work for a living. What you know, who's speaking for them? Good
- 9:54question, Perry, who's a kid? I'm sorry you got me going on
- 9:58this? You it flame you, it's me, I'm kidding. But who's
- 10:03a candidate out there who really has a good understanding of economics and can get
- 10:09up and say we need to abolish this horrific organization known as the Federal Reserve?
- 10:18And you know, Janet Yellen's out there, she's the head of Treasury
- 10:22saying that the government debt isn't a good place. Yeah, oh yeah,
- 10:26what does she smoke? Me? What she's smoking? Huh, I mean,
- 10:31come on, what place is that? I mean, they so question
- 10:35for you. The petro dollar appears to be officially dead. Now what does
- 10:43that mean here for us? Well, I mean it's short short term.
- 10:46I'm looking for short term. I'm looking for the rate of change of inflation
- 10:52to drop significantly because I think we're headed for a recession very quickly. I've
- 10:58been predicting that it's gonna end. I I've been predicting that we were going
- 11:01to end up in another phase. So twenty twenty two we had a recession.
- 11:05It was bailed out by the and this is it, this is this
- 11:09is true. This is a fact. One point seven trillion dollars of qwe
- 11:13came out of the reverse Repo facility from twenty twenty two till today. It's
- 11:18still coming out. So that's what that's what truncated the recession. So that's
- 11:22so the reverse repoacility had two point five trillion dollars in it. Let's now
- 11:26have just a few hundred billion. That's almost empty. That's that Q.
- 11:31That Q the offset all the QT and then some from the Federal reserve.
- 11:35Right, So that's what that's the loquid. That's why you think. That's
- 11:39why Roaring Kitty and in VideA and the sock market in certain sectors is having
- 11:46a field day. That's why you know you you give Wall Street one point
- 11:50seven trillion dollars of gambling money over the course of one freaking year, and
- 11:54they'll go to town and that's what they've done. That's almost that's almost over.
- 12:00When that happens, I think you have a liquidity crisis, repro crisis,
- 12:03money market crisis, and I think everything goes down except for short term
- 12:07bonds, and the US dollar will have a bid, temporary bid, I
- 12:11think. But then you're talking about the petro dollar you talk about you talked
- 12:15about the dollar weakness that's going to come on the other side of this recession
- 12:18when they start blowing up the balance sheet again. I mean, you think
- 12:20about the fest balance sheet that was seven hundred billion dollars two thousand and eight,
- 12:24then then went to nine trillion dollars. This has been out of republic,
- 12:28my friend. There are hop style numbers. No, you can't deny
- 12:33that, and no one can, no one, no one should. And
- 12:35then you say, okay, you you you got it back down down to
- 12:39seven point two trillion dollars from seven hundred billion, still a lot, right.
- 12:45In fact, it was four and a half tri the ballance. He
- 12:46was four and a half trillion prior to COVID, right, which was still
- 12:50out of hand. Yeah, of hand, money supplied, bowing. That's
- 12:54what's fueling all this liquidity. It's almost over though, and you think about
- 13:00the recession that's going to come and on the other side of it, on
- 13:03the other side of this recession, when Janney Yellen and Jerome Powell or whoever's
- 13:09in charge, there'll be somebody who's going to be a puppet of the president.
- 13:13They are going to have an unholy union once again and unleash helicopter money.
- 13:20It'll destroy the dollar. And I'm not talking about the dollars so much
- 13:22against you know, the end or the pound. I'm talking about the dollar
- 13:28against hard assets. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're going to see excuse
- 13:33me that people call me even on the day on a federal holiday, as
- 13:37you see, Uh, you're gonna see. And I think you can see
- 13:39protract and statuslation the likes of which we've never before witnessed or even dream possible
- 13:46in this country. Wow. So in the MEANTI have a Banana Republic,
- 13:50like Argentina, is moving in the right direction, right and interesting how Mille
- 13:58decided not to dollarize the Argentinian economy and we're heading in it exactly. The
- 14:07US and the West are heading in completely wrong direction. And we didn't even
- 14:11talk about China here, Michael, But China is you know, China is
- 14:16not my favorite country either. I mean, you're talking about, you know,
- 14:20running from the United States, you're gonna run into what you're gonna run
- 14:22into, the euro the Renman b where you're gonna where you're gonna go.
- 14:26I mean, they have they have a real estate crisis there. It's not
- 14:30going away. Clearly, the problems are not interest rate related. People can't
- 14:33afford the house, can't The real estate crisis in China is worse than the
- 14:37crisis of the United States. And we have a massive real estate crisis the
- 14:39United States. People can't afford their home. People can't afford a home.
- 14:41And you throw at the fifty percent increase in home prices and then coupled with
- 14:46the twenty six percent increase in maintenance costs and insurance and taxes associated with owning
- 14:52a home unaffordable a we have a dysfunctional real estate market here frozen. So
- 15:00yeah, I'm talking about the dollars destruction against hard assets once, but not
- 15:05not now. I wouldn't do it now because maybe a dollar can still have
- 15:07one big move higher. Yet, because that's what happens anytime you unwind Carrie
- 15:13trades, global carry trades, people run into the dollar. Yeah, well
- 15:18so I would. I would be a long dollar. Not now, I'm
- 15:20neutral a dollar. I'm a position, and I would be I would get
- 15:24it, get ready to get a position and a dollar and then short the
- 15:26heck out of it. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, I want
- 15:31I'm gonna I'm not gonna call I think it's I think I've called I've called
- 15:35this the Greater Depression. Yes, right, that's why I thing it's gonna
- 15:37happen because and carry Why because I'm some kind of maniac who has no idea
- 15:41what he's talking about. Uh, or or I'm sometimes some kind of Cassandra
- 15:48who uses hyperbole. No, I look at the debt of the United States,
- 15:52I look at the asset bubbles that exist in corporate debt and commercial real
- 15:56estate, and I look at the app ascid bubble in collateralized loan obligations and
- 16:03private credit. I look at all these bubbles and I say they're they're unprecedented,
- 16:08and they're concurrent. So we have we you know, we through reshtory.
- 16:14We've had times when there's been a bubble in the stock market. Right
- 16:18in two thousand, there was no bubble in debt to GDP, there was
- 16:22no bubble in corporate credit, There was no bubble in real estate. It
- 16:26was just a Nasdaq bubble. But that bubble burst with a procession and having
- 16:30the Nazak drop by eighty percent eighty three. I think in two thousand and
- 16:34seven there wasn't really a in equity bubble, but there was a real estate
- 16:41bubble, and that didn't stop the S and P from dropping by fifty percent.
- 16:45But now you have a credit bubble, uh, real estate and bull
- 16:51student loanle auto bubble. Got bubbles as far as the eye can see in
- 16:56vidiot bubble, I mean the bubbles everywhere you look, and their concurrent,
- 17:02in other words, existing simultaneously together. What do you think is gonna happen
- 17:07when they burst and there is no real like this? Gentleman, I was
- 17:11having a conversation with my perspective client, there is no there is no perfunctory
- 17:18response. That's a salve that's going to be there's one hundred percent effective that
- 17:23will remediate the situation. Oh, let's just cut rates to zero, borrow
- 17:30trullions of dollars and will monetize it all. Try and see what happens.
- 17:37See if that possibly go wrong. So we're going to have a We're gonna
- 17:44have to have some type of jubilee here, either voluntary or involuntary. Right,
- 17:49Well, we're talking about debt jubilee. You're talking about the restructuring and
- 17:53canceling of debt. Yeah, that's that's I mean, I don't see that
- 17:59happening volunt terily. It's going to be well, let's just be specific.
- 18:03I think the I think after we go through stagflation, hyperinflation that we've never
- 18:10before seen in this country, when that becomes such a problem, that restructuring
- 18:15and canceling and balance, which are very deflationary, become preferred hyper inflation.
- 18:23In other words, when everybody has sense to the idea that we know that
- 18:30we have to change, everybody's on the same page, then they'll then there
- 18:34will be balance and and dead will be canceled and that will be written off.
- 18:41But that's a you're talking about people all coming to the common you know,
- 18:45the zeitgeist will be I prefer I prefer to have a real depression short
- 18:51term because this hyperinflation is killing us. Are we going to have a referendum?
- 18:55Do you want hyper inflation or do you want a real depression? And
- 19:00uh see, I'll think I'll think I'll tink both that both, because you're
- 19:06gonna have because you have both. I mean, that's this third choice.
- 19:10Unfortunately, it's not really the choice. You just you look at every country
- 19:12on the planet who has gone through this. Unfortunately, that's why I call
- 19:17the United States now it's heading towards banana republic status, where when you have
- 19:22when you have debt and depths is out of control that have to be monetized
- 19:26by a central bank, you end up with. This is replete throughout history.
- 19:32You end up with a yeah, you know, hyperinflationary crash and then
- 19:36you know, then you have depressions. Now. The only I mean we
- 19:38I guess the best thing we could ever do is end up like Japan,
- 19:41which is a chronic case of you know, no growth, a protracted perpetual
- 19:48recession and by the way, their stock market is down after thirty five years
- 19:56of their experience. So if that's if that's the best case scenario, I
- 20:00think people need to call their money manager, their favorite broker up and say,
- 20:04are we what's our plan here? What's the strategy going forward? If
- 20:08this is if this is where we're headed, is it just buy a hole
- 20:12because you know the market always comes back. Well, I'm you know,
- 20:18I'm approaching retirement and I like to participate in bubbles, but I don't really
- 20:23want to have my my retirement plans divided by two are multiplied by point five
- 20:32and and wait fifteen years and I hope they come back to even in nominal
- 20:37terms. That's not really it's not really a retirement strategy. But do we
- 20:42have these you know, target date target date portfolios and you know he's order
- 20:47rebalancing. Everybody's piled into the same thing. And this this is not new
- 20:52kerry. This is you know, this is a disaster. It's going to
- 20:55be horrible. Getting the timing as close to possible correct, you know,
- 21:00possibly correct is the challenge. But it's better than just say, you know,
- 21:07yeah, I'm long, I'm a long envidio. Just close your eyes.
- 21:11So hey, your words just reminded me of a quote by Bernard Baruk
- 21:18who said I got rich, letting the other guy make the last ten percent.
- 21:23Wow. Very profound and very true. Yeah, we're close. We're
- 21:29close to that. We're close to the breaking point. There was going to
- 21:32be an epiphany here soon. And I'm tying that to when the reverse repo
- 21:37facility runs runs out of its q E so right around. Yeah, I
- 21:44thought it would be already, but that seemed to plateau. But we're running
- 21:47out of liquidy probably, you know, I would say definitely before the end
- 21:51of the year, but should be sometime this summer that you could start seeing
- 21:55fireworks erupt. You could sooner rather than later. I wrote in an article
- 22:00six years ago. Yeah, it must have been right before the last election
- 22:04called the Emperor has no coretex, you know, the cerebral cortex. Yeah,
- 22:11he's got no cortex. And that goes for any of the presidents.
- 22:15Wasn't specific, but this one has a particular allure to it. Now.
- 22:19Well, when you when an independent suppose the independent third party says you're you're
- 22:25you're not competent enough to stand trial, guilty, you're innocent. You're innocent
- 22:30for reasons of lack of community, you know, yeah, incapacitated mentally.
- 22:38But that makes you a great candidate for really I mean, it's Aladdin,
- 22:48but it's really sad. It's really very sick. Yeah, this is like
- 22:51pissing me off. I just googled the Emperor has no cortex, and I
- 22:55see a few people have stolen it from me. Oh well that's you know
- 23:02what they say, invitation is the greatest form of flattery, sage. Yeah,
- 23:06I'm flattered. I'm sure. So hey, how does the crypto or
- 23:11kleptocurrencies fit into this whole scenario? Is that a safe haven or is it
- 23:18just like anything else for me? They don't because, I mean they've been
- 23:23corrupted and co opted by Wall Street, and so if their price is predicated
- 23:29on them shoving ETFs down your face and saying here, by this cryptocurrency,
- 23:33through our r ETFs, that means when the liquidity crisis hits, people will
- 23:37be dumping ETFs and their shit coins as fast as possible. So no,
- 23:45you're not going to get any zero zero ballast in your portfolio from cryptocurrencies.
- 23:52Okay, so when everything crashes, though, and the digital dollar is basically
- 23:59turned into vapor. If you're holding a currency, though, that could be
- 24:03okay for a little while, right it so, so the four horsemen of
- 24:08the economic apoculas have cash, short term bill, short term treasuries, the
- 24:15US dollar, and shorts shortening the market. So those are only four things
- 24:21that will work, the only four, because everything goes to a correlation of
- 24:25one when you have a liquidity crisis. I'm going to make a little I'm
- 24:30going to have an artist make up that diagram the four the foro coursecalypse.
- 24:38Yes, your credit for it, thank you, thank you, so short
- 24:44term treasuries. But but this is only a fix, a short term fix
- 24:49right in the it's a place to hide when the when, so what everything
- 24:53collapses? You need a place to hide. I mean you could just because
- 24:59you're not going to get any early warning signs from Wall Street. They're not
- 25:03going to get on the TV and tell you, you know, or Janet
- 25:06Yellen or Joan Powell. No one will tell you the truth. I don't
- 25:10think Joe Biden will either. I don't know if he knew it. Yeah,
- 25:14and he's not going to tell you. Hey, listen, we're I
- 25:17think we're headed for a recession that couldn't manage, you know, metastasize into
- 25:19a depression. So I would sell everything you have right now, get in,
- 25:22get into cash that will never happen. Uh. And you're not going
- 25:26to hear it from your your your friendly neighborhood money manager either because you know,
- 25:33you know what he bothered with this. He's off of the golf course.
- 25:37He or she's off of the golf course trying to raise the next you
- 25:40know, million dollars for the a U N So uh. You want to
- 25:44be with someone who's least looking at this. Not not a panic, not
- 25:48not a herm, a bear, but someone was looking at I noticed.
- 25:52I noticed financial coechnitions are tightening, and I noticed credits breads starting to widen
- 25:57out, and I noticed the reverse repos is al he's at it whack.
- 26:00And I know that the the move index is blowing out because the volatility UH
- 26:07index for bonds is getting unruly. I think I'm gonna maybe raise some cash
- 26:15and charting, starting to sell some of these high data UH exposures and just
- 26:22maybe go into the four horsemen for a while. See what Horstman is gold
- 26:26and silver. It's if the if there is a fifth horseman, it would
- 26:30be gold. It wouldn't be silver because silver has that base metal component to
- 26:33it, so it is it is is tied to it. You know,
- 26:37silver does best when the global economy is expanding and we have inflation, so
- 26:41that's a that's its monetary hedges working, and it's hedge to industrial industrial abuse
- 26:48is moving. But gold has a much better, much lower volatility profile than
- 26:56silver, So I would head and I would use gold. But even in
- 26:59a liquidity crisis, physical goal will get hurt. It depends on the intensity
- 27:03of that liquidity crisis. So I'll you know, measure and map that process
- 27:07as well. But right now I'm only owned, I'm only long gold.
- 27:12Yeah, understandable, understandable. So but but they call silver the poor man's
- 27:19gold, right you know, well I'm not. I'm not a poor man
- 27:22and I don't and thank god, I'd rather own the real thing. If
- 27:27I don't, it's not for it's not for man as well. They can
- 27:30call it what they want, But if you look at the performance of gold
- 27:33versus silver, especially when it comes to economic crises, you will want to
- 27:40own the real thing, which is one hundred percent money. And has no
- 27:44exposure to the rate of change of economic growth. Okay, I'll buy it.
- 27:49I'll buy it. I see your point. But I think is massive
- 27:55panic that's going to take place. They'll be buying everything, even opper,
- 28:00Michael, They're even going to be buying copper. I would would I would
- 28:06not disagree with that on the but I would say that would be after the
- 28:11recession takes place. It would be on the ex post the recession, and
- 28:17and then you know, I would buy I will be buying copper, base
- 28:19metals, and energy, precious health. That's only after the that these maniacs
- 28:26in Washington are able to re liquify the financial system. You really feel and
- 28:32tell us how you really feel about it? Yeah, I mean, well,
- 28:34well, you know what the you know you have you have an inverted
- 28:37yield curve that's been inverted for the longest duration in history. Yeah, I
- 28:42mean, you're killing you're killing the bank. The bank. The banks are
- 28:45finished, and they're under a lot of pressure from their assets that are eroding,
- 28:51so their margins are and called it net interest margin NIM is under a
- 28:56lot of pressure. So you know, we listen, Jerry, I'm not
- 29:02a nefarious individual. I want the best for this country. The country is
- 29:07in desperate need of a recession. Doesn't in needs indegation, in need need
- 29:12that it needs the cathartic cleansing, urging action that comes with resetting all this
- 29:19debt that's not you know, not supported, cannot be supported. Resetting asset
- 29:25prices, that's wonderful. It would be nice if people wouldn't be nice if
- 29:30people could actually buy a house. Wonderful. Right, So let let's go
- 29:36back to the gold you know, to dow ratio. So, once upon
- 29:41a time, two hundred ounces bought a house, right, two hundred ounces
- 29:45or one hundred ounces, I don't remember what the number was exactly, but
- 29:49basically in a house it was one hundred grand and or fifty and you had,
- 29:57you know, one hundred ounces of gold, you could buy a house
- 30:00with it. But not the case anymore. So how prices are you know,
- 30:06a way out gold? If you look at a home price to income
- 30:08ratios, they're at the highest point by far in relation to any other time
- 30:15period, even two thousand and six, which is the previous bubble peak.
- 30:18So home prices cannot be afforded by the income. And if you look at
- 30:22all the other factors that are a part of a house. Like I said,
- 30:26the main has caused the insurance costs, taxes, it's even further out
- 30:29of reach. So yeah, so I would I would look for that ratio
- 30:33to come back into some you know, economic symmetry, historic symmetry soon and
- 30:38it would probably do so by both the home price coming down and gold going
- 30:41up. Yeah, and the gold to dow ratio. You know, it's
- 30:48also I mean, even though the doubt isn't really the best to now,
- 30:52you know, but look at the gold and NASDAC ratio if you want something
- 30:56that shows how out of whack everything is. So yeah, so all these
- 31:03ratios are going to reverse reversion to mean eventually, right the reversion. Yeah,
- 31:10so you want to be you can never prepare for the inevitable, like
- 31:12we buy life insurance, but that doesn't mean you're ready to die. You
- 31:18know, you can't really prepare for this tsunami. It's because it hits the
- 31:22US, then it means it's global. Right, it's every country in the
- 31:26world except for some countries that are kind of off the grid. Yeah,
- 31:30right, global. I mean, if you take the problems that are extends
- 31:37in Europe and the United States, and China and Japan. Those are the
- 31:44countries you have to be concerned with as far as you know your portfolio,
- 31:48what most people are concerned. I mean, if you have problems in those
- 31:51four countries, you're not going to be safe anywhere. Yeah, and it's
- 31:56one black swan gets set it all off, right. I don't think we
- 32:00need a black swan. We need read the regular white. So it's every
- 32:02like we just said, it's not it's not. I don't think we need
- 32:06some kind of rare exogynous media or hitting the earth. It's it's going to
- 32:10be the same thing. It's a business cycle. We took on way too
- 32:14much debt. Interest rates are way interest rates we're near zero present for ten
- 32:20of the last fourteen years. Following was awful, following following the global financial
- 32:25prices. I mean, that's that's the problem. And people borrowed too much
- 32:30money when money was virtually free, and asset prices went to the moon.
- 32:32And now inflation is coming down and money supplies has has been shrinking, and
- 32:39the liquidity spigot is about to run dry, and you'll see this correction.
- 32:44It's just part of the business cycle. We don't need anything crazy to happen.
- 32:49And when the stock market starts going down, you know, the there's
- 32:52in the five quintiles of consumers, the bottom three are done because inflation has
- 32:58wiped them out the top two. It's all. That's all. It's keeping
- 33:01things afloat. And their their wealth is in real estate and stock speculation,
- 33:07Gordon Gecko. And and they're about to get a reality check once the liquidity
- 33:12runs dry, because once when the when when the stock market ins the fall
- 33:15and the real estate market be into humble guess what all five quintiles will be
- 33:21Ryan for Uncle Jerome and the and Jedi please it was over. Please cut
- 33:29injurs rates please, and did the worst time to do it, you know?
- 33:32And cutting interest rates and we talked about it already again, cutting interest
- 33:36rates back to zero when you have an inflation problem, and borrowing trillions of
- 33:39dollars when you're insolvent. Yeah, one hundred and what are we one hundred
- 33:43and thirty something percent debt to GDP nuts. You know, the stock market
- 33:49in prosperity in a more in a in a soft landing, we have that
- 33:52condition. The stock market's kind of mirroring the debt market, right, uh,
- 34:00you know, stock market's one hundred and ninety percent of GDP and the
- 34:04how much is debt times GDP? That's kind of like we have a definite
- 34:08correlation there. Huh, We're getting there. Unfortunately, are not good.
- 34:14Well, we always appreciate you coming on. Go over to pentoport dot com.
- 34:17The links in the show notes, questions comments for Michael myself al at
- 34:22Carrie LUTs dot com. While you're at the site, sign up for your
- 34:27free newsletter. Michael, we'll talk to you again real soon. Thanks,
- 34:30appreciate the time, Carrie, Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
- 34:36your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial
- 34:40Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,