Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Super Bowl LVI Top Prop Bets

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Super Bowl LVI Top Prop Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,
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  Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chat Noman,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It is Tuesday
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: of Super Bowl week. Somehow we are getting through the
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: two weeks and we are finally at the point where
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  Speaker 1: we can are talking legit, actionable content. Me. It might
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: be f my companion, my compadre professional better signing hunter
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: brother Chad. I instantly regretted this morning not reading Matt
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Mitchell's email over the weekend because I had no idea.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: We're doing a live show today. Nice a little live
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: email where it's like, here's the live header. I was like,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: oh my god, I'm not a fan of these live
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: shows because if we do a podcast, I have a
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: one percent chance of being fired. When we do a
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: live show, it's chance of me getting fired. Fortunately, Look,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do two shows this week. As we've discussed,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: you and I were gonna do it we always do
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: on Thursdays. We're going to review the sharp calls that
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: we've been getting about the game decides the totals. It'll
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: be a quick show because we've talked a lot about
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: what's happening with the Bengals and the Rams. Today, we
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  Speaker 1: are doing our very own favorite version of proper Palooza
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  Speaker 1: with our convince Me colleagues are all a little panel
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  Speaker 1: of experts here, Chris Raybon, Sean Kroner. There's nobody better,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: nobody better at player props in the entire world than
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  Speaker 1: these two guys. I had true glory. So I'm in
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: l A. Anyone who's a regular viewer or a listener
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: of the podcast will see that my background is different.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I'm in l A. Already flew out on Monday morning.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I wake up in the morning very early from my flight.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I get on the plane, and before I get on
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  Speaker 1: the plane, I see we've downloaded the new Action Network
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  Speaker 1: podcast with Raybon and Kroner Proper Palooza, Pure Player Props.
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  Speaker 1: I had to lay some money down in beds before
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  Speaker 1: I even took off. I had the pilot hold the
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  Speaker 1: plane just so I can make sure I did it
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  Speaker 1: legally while I was in the state of Connecticut. Krona
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: is not gonna say anything mean about me. I see
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  Speaker 1: you shaking your head. The good thing about this is
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: that Simon, you don't have to worry about getting canceled
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: or fired because I'm still the number one person that's
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: more likely to most likely to get fired and or
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  Speaker 1: canceling on the show. So let's see what happens. I'm
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: gonna see Raybon and Croner tomorrow night for dinner here
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: in l A. One of the last times I saw
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Raybon post work for an event before the pandemic. It
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: was very late at night. We were at a restaurant.
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  Speaker 1: He yelled things that nobody should be yelling in public,
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  Speaker 1: and then passed out of the table literally to put
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: his head down. On the table passed out. I think
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  Speaker 1: like in the middle of a very very expensive sort
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: of curated sounds about right on that coroner. How excited
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  Speaker 1: are you for player props super Bowl Week? Super excited?
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  Speaker 1: I want the game to start already. It's it's already,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: you know, Tuesday, but I just wanted to start. I
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: can't wait, you know, six more days. So let's let's
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: get it rolling. Well, listen, you're a so Cal native.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: This is a big deal for you. We're gonna get
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: to sort of your guys, all three of you, you're
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: best player props. We can do a little mini conve
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: to me. I'm excited to see what you guys say
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: so I can decide which one of these are the
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: best ones. But before we get to that, there's literally
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  Speaker 1: hundreds and hundreds of player props. And the way this
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: market has grown over the past fifteen years, even but
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: really accelerated the past five years. It used to be
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: bookmakers are taken a week to get out three or
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  Speaker 1: four hundred player props that they're printing on sheets that
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  Speaker 1: every better better has to go get at the book
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  Speaker 1: if they want to bet. These player props. Now they're
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  Speaker 1: coming out within forty eight hours and they're everywhere. So
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  Speaker 1: before we get to the players like Corona, I want
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: to start with you, what markets have you seen that
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: you immediately thought, okay, there's an opportunity. So I mean,
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  Speaker 1: first off, I look at every single market and I
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: try to come up with a way to project whatever
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: that market is. UM. And I have two non player
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  Speaker 1: props that I think are winners. And the first ones
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  Speaker 1: to field goal prop and it's the shortest field goal
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  Speaker 1: made over twenty seven and a half yards UM. So
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  Speaker 1: you know, obvious see if either kicker gets a field
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  Speaker 1: goal attempt inside inside twenty seven yards, this prop is toast.
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  Speaker 1: So I looked at you know, the season long data,
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  Speaker 1: and twelve point five percent of Evan McPherson and Matt
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  Speaker 1: Gay's attempts have been inside the twenty seven yard line.
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  Speaker 1: I would put this around, you know, a sixty chance
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  Speaker 1: of hitting that. You know, if there is a field
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  Speaker 1: goal made that there's gonna be there's not gonna be
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  Speaker 1: a field goal within twenty seven half yards. And let
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  Speaker 1: me just say that, double check with your book. This
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  Speaker 1: prop should be avoided if there's no field goal made. UM.
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  Speaker 1: So that's part of my calculation is if there's at
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  Speaker 1: least one field goal made, there's a sixty percent chance
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  Speaker 1: that we're not gonna see one under twenty seven half yards.
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  Speaker 1: So I love that one. And the other one that
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  Speaker 1: I like that I would never bet on, like any
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: other Super Bowl, is which team will call the first
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: time out? And I think in this case, the Rams
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  Speaker 1: should be the clear favorite. Anytime you watch Rams game,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that Sean McVey doesn't really care for
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: time outs. He just uses them like they're going out
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: of style. So one guy, Michael Lopez didn't in depth
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: analysis on you know, coaches and their use of timeouts,
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  Speaker 1: and Sean McVeigh led the league with two point nine
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  Speaker 1: unnecessary time outs per game, and I can't think of
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  Speaker 1: a more unnecessary time out typically than the first time out.
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  Speaker 1: I went back and I was gonna just see, you
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  Speaker 1: know how the Rams have called timeouts the past few games, um,
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  Speaker 1: And I went back and I saw they have called
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  Speaker 1: the first time out in nine straight games. So that's
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  Speaker 1: that's enough for me to take what's typically a pick them.
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  Speaker 1: You could get Rams probably minus one fifteen at most books.
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  Speaker 1: So that's my other favorite non player prop prop. All right,
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  Speaker 1: I have so many follow up questions for you, but
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  Speaker 1: they're not about the actual props. They're about process. So
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  Speaker 1: let me get to Raybon Croner just gave us first
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  Speaker 1: time out called shortest field goal twenty seven and a
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  Speaker 1: half yard. Bet it or don't bet it. What is
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  Speaker 1: your non player prop market that you looked at and thought,
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  Speaker 1: I gotta get after it. I'm looking at what's gonna
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  Speaker 1: happen early in the game. And I know people, especially
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: people betting props that don't bet props often, probably are
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  Speaker 1: gonna love these kind of things as you get your
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  Speaker 1: action decided pretty quickly early on. So the first thing
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  Speaker 1: I'm looking at is the first play of the game
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  Speaker 1: will be a pass attempt or a rush attempt, and
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  Speaker 1: I love past attempt at plus one eighteen. Now, you
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  Speaker 1: might look at the Rams and say, okay, you know
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  Speaker 1: they only pass about forty percent at a time on
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  Speaker 1: their first play, But the Bengals have passed on their
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  Speaker 1: first place sixteen of twenty times this year, so that's
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  Speaker 1: eight percent. So you average those two out, you get
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  Speaker 1: about six, and you're getting first play the game is
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  Speaker 1: a pass at plus one eighteen. Uh. And also the
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  Speaker 1: Rams have been known to pass early on their first
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  Speaker 1: play against the tougher run defenses, so you know teams
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  Speaker 1: like San Francisco they'll pass and and the Bengals actually
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  Speaker 1: do have a better run defense than they have a
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  Speaker 1: past defense. So I think the Rams are true. Odds
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  Speaker 1: are better than forty as well, so I think it's
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  Speaker 1: at least fifty fifty at the first play of the
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  Speaker 1: game is going to be a pass, and you're getting
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  Speaker 1: plus one two, So I would take this at anything
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  Speaker 1: even money or better uh than the next one. No,
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  Speaker 1: it's in the first six minutes at minus one twenty two.
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  Speaker 1: I love that Historically Super Bowl first quarters have been
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  Speaker 1: very low scoring. Teams are trying to feel each other
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  Speaker 1: out early on in the game, not trying to do
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  Speaker 1: anything too crazy. So I went back and looked at
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  Speaker 1: both of these teams. Cincinnati scored in the first six
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  Speaker 1: minutes of the time this year, and so did the Rams.
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  Speaker 1: Cincinnati allowed to score in the first six minutes five
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  Speaker 1: percent at the time. The Rams allowed one fifteen percent
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  Speaker 1: at a time. So but eighty percent chance that each
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: for each team. You do some math, uh, so to
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: combine it for both teams, you get about a sixty
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  Speaker 1: four percent chance that neither team should score in the
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  Speaker 1: first six minutes. That's about minus one seventy The odds
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: are minus a Fandel again, I think you have some
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: great value there. Uh. And the final one is the
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  Speaker 1: first quarter under under ten. You can get at fandul
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: uh nine and a half of some other places. But
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: this season Cincinnati thirteen six and one towards the under
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: in the first quarter, the Rams fourteen and six towards
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: the under in the first quarter. That is twenty seven
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: twelve and one first quarter unders. And the Super Bowl
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: in general has been very profitable skewing to first quarter unders.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: So I loved those three early in the game. Props
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  Speaker 1: first play the game pass no points in the first
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: six and the first quarter under. Do you feel like
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: a the first play of the game being a pass?
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: That is like legit, uncut gems, degenerate style betting. That
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: is how you kick off your Super Bowl like right away,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: you've got a winner a loss right as soon as
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: you do it. It almost makes me too nervous to
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: do it. But for all three of you, Simon, you
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: answer first, do you feel like books are starting to
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: adjust to a slower than people would normally expect pace
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: of play first half, first quarter because the trends have
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: been for these games to be lower scoring in the
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: first thirty minutes of the game. Honestly, not really. They
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: opened all the books open probably minus one second half
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: of the most points, and now the professionals have betted
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  Speaker 1: it's up the minus minus one forty. So it's one
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: of those every year they open it up, they're like,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: we'll let the people decide, and every year we just
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: bet the second half to have the most points. So
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Chris touched on a little bit. It's with these props
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I want people to keep in mind where if you
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: have a really close number, if you already like the under,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: you usually should bet the under in these props. If
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: you like the over, you take a bunch of over
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: in the props. It's kind of one of those where
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: it's like, if you're gonna bet your props, kind of
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: bet how you think the game's gonna go. So I'm
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: right there with Chris. I think it's gonna be under game.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I love the first half winder, so I'm I'm really
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: liking those bets where I look at this matchup and
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: it's like, we have two quarterbacks their first times in it.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: And I know people are gonna bring up how the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Patriots used to start always start slow, even though Tom
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Brady had been there before. It's just jitters. It feels
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: like any team, they're human. You're in the biggest game.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: It's like an hour two hours, you're just sitting there
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: waiting for this game to start. It starts and we
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: just see the defense always kind of has up for
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: hand to start the game. So I love betting these
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: under especially these first half unders. What were the sort
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: of your non player prop markets that you were paying
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: attention to? UM It all depends, I mean looking at
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: this one. Like I know Stucky says he hates betting
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: things before the game starts. I actually love that. It's like,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I'm a gambler. Let's get this started. So heads their tails,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Like I'm all into that stuff. I told people to
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: ask me, should they bet? I said, yeah, throw a
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: couple of bucks on it. You literally are losing money
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: technically by the value, like it should just be even money.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: They're charging you minus one ten Like the books know
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: what they're doing. It's free money for the sports books.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: But it's fun. Like everyone's sitting around the TV drinking
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: your beer betting that So for more serious when I
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: love the two point conversion. Every year it's at a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: plus number. We've just seen the last especially the last
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: twenty years with these coaches have kind of updated their playbooks.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: If a team gets down double digits in the Super Bowl,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: historically the two point hits a clip. So that means
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: if either team gets up by two touchdowns, we're gonna
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: be cashing this bet. Last year didn't work off for
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: us with the Chiefs. The Chiefs just couldn't score a touchdown.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: So it's mainly you need the team chasing to get
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: the two pointers, and it didn't work out for us
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: last year. Makes me love to doing more this year.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: It's it's a good number two. I'm gonna plus one
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: thirty five at certain books. I think it's plus. Raybon
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: and Croner. You both mentioned heavily researched props, you know,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: mentioning digging in Raybon the number of times the Bengals
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: and the Rams have run a pass or a run
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: on the first play of the game. Um Kroner, the
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: number of times these field goal kickers have kicked something
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: under twenty seven yards and very specific numbers, and then
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Croner you mentioned you basically want to bet every market
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: that is available, hundreds and hundreds of proper markets available.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: How much time does this take you? Like? How are
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: you doing this so quickly? Oh? I'm not. It takes
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: me two weeks. So I'm glad that we have a
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: two week ramp up for the Super Bowl. And you know,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: I'm running simulators, I'm doing all these things. And so
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I made a good point. You know, when I started
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: making these prop bets, I kind of want them all
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: to correlate too, so you know, like if I start
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: having you know, portfolio five to six player props like
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: going forward, I kind of went all my bets to
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: kind of like line up with the narrative that they're
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: you know, describing, So like I meticulously usually end up
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: with about ten to fifteen props. You said, I try.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: You know, I wanted about every market. That's true, but
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I only end up on about ten to fifteen. Uh,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: you know, prop bets. What about you the research I
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: would be doing for the entire slate on a normal
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: NFL week, which is you know, sixteen games usually, Um,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: you know, I ride up the big big column about
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: each game. I just kind of put that into the
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: different prop markets. So when I first start, I just
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: kind of look at all of the markets and I
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: kind of hone in on the ones that I can
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: actually do some research that I think, hey, you know
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: the I understand how the books where I try to
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: understand how the of books put out their initial number,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: and if I see something like you know, first play
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: of the game, They're not gonna spend too much time
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: on that, but a lot of people are gonna bet it.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go back and actually say, you know what,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I would never look at this for a normal NFL week,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: you probably wouldn't even get that available. But now I
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: can actually dig into the data and get the exact numbers, uh,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and see how close they are, you know, to to
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the odds. So I just kind of treat every different
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: market like an individual NFL game. But how much of
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: this is chicken in the egg? And what I mean
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: by that is Kroner or Raybon. Currently you're running a
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: simulator Raybon, You're thinking, Okay, that's a prop that could
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: be interesting to me. Are you looking in some kind
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: of spreadsheet that you have that says, hey, there could
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of an edge here or is
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: it just I test? I want to see something that's interesting,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: and that's what I'm going to spend my time researching bond.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: You First, I do it that way. I just kind
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: of look at the entire market because I'm the odds
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: in my head, like I can kind of ballpark where
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: they should be for each market. So it's kind of
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: just just like I would on a normal prop market,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: like um, you know, I'll just kind of look over that,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: you know, and then kind of say, Okay, here's what
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I want to check in and kind of do more
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: research on because in my head, these odds don't quite
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: match up, or there might be an edge here, or
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: there just might be some specific information here that gives
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: me the best number if I don't know that. Sometimes
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what the numbers should be, but
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: I know I could do the research to find out,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: and I know the books didn't put that much time,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: and it's but yeah, I'm just kind of looking over
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: the markets because you do have to prioritize your time.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, there are like hundreds of markets, as you said,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: So that's why we're kind of here, you know, we're
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: gonna do it in categories like our favorite nonplayer props,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: our favorite player props. I do it the same way.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I kind of bund do it in the categories and
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: then go from there. What I like is Raybond is
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: always trying to give people markers. He like, you know,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: you think he's just going to be the drunk guy
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: at the end of the night who's yelling crazy things,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: but he's looking for structure. Kerner, are you using your
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: simulators to help you define which bets you want to
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: do more research on? Absolutely? And similar to Raybond, you know,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I am combing through just sing like real quick which
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: one stand out to me? But I do rely on
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: I seem later to kind of find value, and then
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I can narrow down which props you know I'm gonna
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: be on um And for example, like a Cooper Crop
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Cooper cut prop, I want to be over and I
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: knew I had to lock that in immediately because a
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: market like that, you figure everyone's betting on his over,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: whereas other markets, I feel like, you know, the dogs
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: are gonna go up and I'll get a better number
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: later in the week. So I think it all comes
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: down to timing. As with everything betting related. But you know,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I try to time win. I think I can get
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the best number two. That's that's part of my process
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: as well. All right, there is one more non player
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: prop that I want to get to. I'm going to
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: start with Simon. I'm going to end with Raybon because
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: I know this is something that he loves to do
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: research on. I would say the two props that people
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: will be most interested in are what color is the
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach? And
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: national anthem. We will never get a better story about
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: gatorade than Um. Drew Franklin, who was from Kentucky and
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: works in a lot of radio there Um told a
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: great story on our podcast, which was Jared Lorenzen, who
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: was forever the sort of beloved former quarterback at Kentucky,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: three pound guy who played quarterback in the NFL. It
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: was a backup for the Giants when they played the
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Patriots in the Super Bowl the first time. Uh he
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: was on the sideline before the game and he looked
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: in the gatorade canisters for both the Patriots and the
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Giants and then texted all of his buddies back in
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Kentucky and told them what color gatorade was in each container,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: so that way they could bet what color gatorade was
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: going to be dumped on the winning coach based on
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: whoever they thought they was gonna win the game. So
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: if the friends thought that the Patriots are gonna win,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: they could bet that color. If they thought the Giants
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: were gonna win, they could bet that color. That is
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: the greatest tip, the greatest gatorade betting story you could
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: ever possibly have. Simon, do you have an opinion on
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: the other prop that everyone is going to talk about,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: which is the national anthem? So do your thoughts in
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: the national anthem? How do you bet the national anthem?
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Will you be betting the national anthem this year? I
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: mean I try to cheat like everyone else. Like last year,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: we had a guy leak um early video of her
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: singing the national anthem, and everyone's able to get on
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: the under and they dropped it like twenty seconds down
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: after that clip on viral of her singing. So that's
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: that's one of those where it's like I'm honestly, I'm
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: not on social media enough to do that, but other
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: people are, so I'm just wait on text, like as
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: soon as that comes out whenever she does her practice run.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: That's when you just hit all these books for the
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: under or the over, depending on how long the time
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: she gets time for. So that's one of those where
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: people have to be on Twitter this week if you
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: want to catch that, because someone's gonna put it up.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Someone in media will put up how long they sing for,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: and that's that's a great like Again, that's how you
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: use social media to your advantage. The person singing the
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: national anthem this year is a singer named Mickey Guiton.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I guarantee I don't know who it is. She's a
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: country singer. Um. I guarantee at some point international recording
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: artist Nicky Guiton. That's how they introduce anybody that the
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: entire world not might not know is. They will say
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: international recording artist. If I can get a prop on that,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I would bet on that coroner. Do you have any
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: thoughts in the National Anthem? Uh? No, I spent so
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: much time handicapping the actual game. I'm similar to Sime.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: I just wait for inside info or something to go
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: off of, but no, like and I'm not saying, you know,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not de genda about it. I'm max betting, punter props.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: So um, it just it has to be involving the
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: actual football game for me to like be relying on
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: anything internally. He's kind of coming after you. How's he
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: coming out to me because I know you are max betting?
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, well, I mean we gotta MAXI bet props.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, what are what are we doing here for?
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: We gotta MAXI bet anything you bet, uh properties, And
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: I feel like that's just how it goes. But uh yeah,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I do look at the numbers for for this, I mean, uh,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: not the individual singer. It's tough because it's such a
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: different stage, you know, in the Super Bowl. So I
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: don't but and if that, if that does come out
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: where they say, okay, we've seen the rehearsals, obviously update.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: But when I start out, I just look at the
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: times of each singer, you know, going back you know
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, and you know, the line that
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: I've seen is somewhere between like uh somewhere in a
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: minute and a half range for the for the anthem
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: to go over under And if you just look back
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: at the last uh fourteen super bowls, uh, it's been
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: over a minute and a half. Uh each time, so
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: it hasn't gone uh for a minute and a half
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: for lessons. Billy Joel in Super Bowl forty one was
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: a minute thirty exactly. You know, last year it was
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: to seventeen. The year before it was one nine, two
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: oh one, fifty two, two oh four, two two oh four,
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: two oh three to thirty six. Now some of these
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: numbers went under um because the lines were higher, but
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: from the initial line, I just feel like the books
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: opened it pretty low at a minute and a half.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're talking about nothing since you know, fifteen
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: years ago that that's been that short. So unless they're
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: trying to shorten it and there's something we don't know,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna bang the over and then just adjust uh
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: if we get if we get different information. But right
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: now I love the over. I think there's like twenty
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: seconds of value on the over. You know what. I
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: appreciate you taking your job professionally, unlike Simon and Coroner,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: who aren't paying attention to what one of the biggest
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: opportunities in the market might be. Simon, if you wouldn't
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: give me your favorite player props right now that you
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: are smashing, will smash hoping to smash if the market
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: moves a little bit, Uh, what are they? Yeah? And
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: I when I look at these kind of player props,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: like I do have a system for but nowhere near
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: is extensive as Sean and Chris are like I, I'm
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: definitely more of a spreads and told us kind of guy.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: But the super Bowl is where you can really get
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: great value on the player props. And it's look the
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: rare instance where I bet more on props than I
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: do even on the game, just because that's where we're
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: gonna find the value. So the biggest one that jumped
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: out to her how many people love Tee Higgins. So
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: when I saw his number, it's gone up for sure.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: But the rationale is probably just Ramsey's gonna shadow Chase.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: So that's where you're gonna get a good number at
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: te Higgs. And when you're looking at this style, that's
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: that's that is a really good price for him. He's
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: right now, he's at sixty nine point five on that's
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: that's a good number for him. His athleticism, what we
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: think this game is gonna go. I could easily see
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: him reaching that number, especially where he's got to step up.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: He's knocking getting Ramsey. That's a big moment for him.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: My other favorite one is another number two receiver, so
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Adell Beckham. He's been really good to me these playoffs.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I've just been betting his overprops. I've been betting him
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: to score touchdowns. He keeps delivering. So I look at
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: this offense. We already know Cooper Cup is gonna do
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: like he's gonna probably end up putting up a hundred.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: They're gonna shadow the whole defense to him eventually, Little
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Justin just have him double box or triple box like
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: they're just gonna make it. So if they're gonna give
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: up a catch the Cooper Cup, it's only gonna go
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: for ten fifteen yards where O'Dell we've seen him get open.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: We've seen him make these big plays in these playoffs.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: So I love that number. I think it's really short.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Uh seeing it at sixty one point five right now
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: and fandual uh Raybon and coroner. I know in the
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: proper pod. Before we get to your player props, you
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: guys spent a ton of time talking about te Higgins
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: as m v P. UM, you first give me your
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: thoughts on te Higgins as m v P or any
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: other m VP candidates that we should thinking about. Yeah,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: so that's that's Actually my favorite long shot is te
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Higgins six one to win the Super Bowl m v P.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: If you look at the past twenty Super bowls, UM
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: four receivers have won it, and the Super Bowl has
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: some really good receivers in it, So I think that,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: you know, looking at Cooper Cup, I'll back come Jamar
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Chase te Higgins. I think that's sort of the sweet
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: spot when it comes to value betting on the m
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: v P, and both I should mention both starting tight
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: ends are dealing with sprained m c ls, so they'll
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: probably suit up, but they're gonna be limited and they
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: could be decoy, so that boost these wide receivers value
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: even more. In my opinion, I just think te Higgins
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: is the guy where you know, Sion mentioned that that
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the Rams will put extra resources in slowing down Jamar Chase,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: and the Rams play a ton of zone and we've
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: seen this season that te Higgins tends to thrive against
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: his own coverage. So I think this is all setting
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: up for te Higgins to have a you know, potential
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: big enough game, uh to win m v P. But
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Higgins is a guy. I think it's been undervalued all
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: season long, so just I'm looking to cash in with
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: the sixty one long shot on him to win m
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: V p Raybon. You feel the same way about Higgins?
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: You have any thoughts on Super Bowl MVP? I love it.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: We had our Super Bowl odds draft at the Action
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Network and I actually grabbed Higgins, And for people out
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: there that that have followed us for a while, you
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: may remember, I think it was my first year at Action.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: In our odds draft, I took Julian Edelman as like
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: a twenty one long shot too in Super Bowl m
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: V p oh And what happened. He won it against
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: who Sean mcveigh's ram so without a touchdown. And I
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: think that's the key, is that for the Bengals to
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: win this game. You know, yes, they could get in
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: the shootout, but I think the more likely, uh kind
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: of outcome is that there they figure out some crazy
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: second half adjustments and they're able to kind of do
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: what they did to Kansas City, UH and slow down
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: to Rams in the second half and and maybe win
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: a lower scoring game. So I think that puts it
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: to where if Chase is getting you know, do having
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: a normal game, but not crazy, not a monster like
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: two hundred yard game. That means Burrow may not be
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: having a monster game because Chase and Burrow I have
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: been pretty much perfectly correlated with their monster games. But
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Higgins could still go for like a hundred yards even
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: if he doesn't get a touchdown. There's a precedent for
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: a wide receiver winning against these very Rams with a
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: hundred plus yards no touchdowns in the Super Bowl. So
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: I love Higgins. I think Jalen Ramsey's pretty interesting at
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: eighty to one. If you like the Rams and Leonard
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Floyd at one two one, because I mean Floyd on
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: that front, you're gonna be checking von Miller, You're gonna
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: be checking Donald. I think Floyd's that guy that could
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: get single blocked a lot and uh and cause some havocs.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: So if you like the Rams, those two guys, if
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: you like the Bengals, I think it's Higgins and maybe
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: even a little bit, maybe a couple of dollars on
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: some Evan McPherson. We've never seen a kick or win,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: but uh, you know, could the Bengals could win like
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: a fifteen to twelve game. Fifteen to ten something like that.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: If McPherson hits like five field goals two or three
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: from fifty plus, I mean you gotta give it to him.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: So hopefully none of them are within seven yards. That correct? Yeah,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: just all along field goals only fifty plus. Yes, that's
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: all we're looking for. The first book come in the
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: first half after Sean McVeigh burns the time out. All right,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: So we talked about t Higgins. Simon's gonna hit his
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: over you guys both like him for Super Bowl MVP,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: and the odds are there. The NFL season all comes
• 28:17
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  Speaker 1: West Virginia, coroner run down your faives your favorite favorite
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: props for me, so you know I have a time,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: but let me focus on my top two and the
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: first one already mentioned it is Cooper Cup longest reception
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: over twenty eight and a half yards um. This is
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: one of the first props I lockt in because, like
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: I mentioned, I was surprised to find value on a
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Cooper Cup over honestly, because we know books are probably
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: taking a ton of action on the over, so I
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: want to get on this quick. A lot a lot
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: of books have moved it up to twenty and a half.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Some have moved up over thirty, but look out for
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: twenty eight and a half out there, because I haven't
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: going over the sixty four percent of the time. Um.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Based on his season a date uh game logs, he's
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: actually gone over the seventy of the time. So I'm
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: being fairly conservative with my six estimate. But even at
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: you know, twenty nine and a half, I still haven't
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: clearing this at sixty one percent. This line should be
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: closer to thirty three and a half. So love Cooper
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: cup long re reception over twenty and a half yards
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: and then you know it's the hold on, hold on,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: let me fall up there. You say it should be
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: closer to thirty three and a half. You wanted a
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: twenty eight and a half. Uh, I got it yesterday
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: twenty eight and a half uh minus I think one
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: thirty maybe um. And that's when I was listening to
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: the podcast. Within two hours, I was listening to your
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: and rabon Action Network proper Pools a podcast within two
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: hours of it being posted at twenty nine and a
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: half some places at thirty How high would you go?
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: What's the ceiling on? What you would bet on this? UM,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: I'd probably bet up to thirty and a half UM.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: That's when the wind probably is gonna drop to about
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent UM, so every yard is gonna dock
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: about three percent, So just think of it that way.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: So usually fifty eight percents my threshold, and that's thirty
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and a half. So I would bet it up to
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: thirty and a half. Got it, all right? See there
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: you go. That's an important calculation right there. Alright, what
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: was number two? I've started in with you? So yeah,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: So it's sorry, I'm excited for these punter props, but
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: it's the Super Bowl. This is the only game all
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: season we get offered punter props, so I have to
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: attack these. And I did find really good value again
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: this year, and that's Kevin Huber. His longest punt to
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: be over fifty two and a half yards UM, and
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: my simulator has him clearing this sixty two percent of
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: the time. He's cleared this in thirteen of twenty games
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: this year. That's a sixty uh over eight UM. So
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: this line should be culture to fifty four and a half.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: And this is this is a market where every single
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: yard matters UM. So at fifty three and a half yards.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: He's still getting hited about fifty eight percent at the time,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: so I would we betted up to fifty three and
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: a half, but it's going to be right around fifty.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: If I had to guess, he's his longest punt will
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: probably be fifty five yards exactly. Um, So I love
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: taking these props and love his longest punt to be
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: over fifty two and a half yards. When you saw
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: the markets come out, we're puncher props the first thing
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: that you look for. Yeah, and they weren't up yet,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: but that was absolutely the first thing I look for, because,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: like I said, this is the only game all season
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: that or even offered these, and typically, you know, I
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: can find one or two, you know where I think
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: there's this over sixty percent chance to hit, and it
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: just gives you incentive to literally watch every single play
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: of the game because usually when team's punting, that's when
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: you get another beer or snacks. But now I'm sitting
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: there sweating punter props. So when you refill your green tea,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: no beer maybe for you. He only Crida only gave
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: me two favorite player props, so I'm gonna give him
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a break, I'm gonna come to
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: you for your favorite player props, and then I'm gonna
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: go back to Coroner because i feel like two isn't enough. Alright, cool,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: so I'll give you my favorite two as well. Um
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: let's started off with Matthew Stafford under five and a
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: half rushing yards. So this is just straight recently bias prop.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: He's been over five and a half and all three
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: postseason games, and so everyone's looking and at it and
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: they're saying, Okay, we gotta bump this number up at
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the books, but in reality, this is a terrible number.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford has been under five and a half and
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: thirteen of twenty games or sixtent his median is point
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: five rushing yards, which means he's goes over fifty percent
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: at the time. He goes under half a rushing yard
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: fifty percent at a time. All thirteen of those games
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: where he's had under five and a half, he's had
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: two or fewer rushing yards. So it's just been kind
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: of an anomaly. These last couple of games he scrambled
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: or something like that. He scrambled in under half his games.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: By the way, uh, end you look at the Bengals.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: They they're not a team that gives up a ton
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: of rushing numbers two quarterbacks because they like to play
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of zone. We saw them even drop eight
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: in the second half against my homes most of the
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: second half. So the Bengals gave up the tenth fewest
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: rushing yards during the regular season. Over fifty percent of
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: those rushing yards to quarterbacks came from two quarterbacks, Lamar
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Jackson and Justin Fields. Over of all of the rushing
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: yards of quarterbacks that the Bengals gave up, Matthew Stafford
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: two or less than sixty five percent of his games. Uh,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: this is a terrible number at five point five. I
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: jumped on that very early, so I think you gotta
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: take that. And my second favorite one is some J.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: P Ryan under fourteen and a half combined rushing and
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: receiving yards. So p Ryan, before going over last week
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: on that long screen touchdown, he'd been under this number
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: in five straight games. He's likely gonna need three touch
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: opportunities to get there because the averages under four yards
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: to carry about seven yards per catch. So uh, he's
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: had um just one more than one touch just once
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: in the three postseason games. He really he hasn't been
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: a big factor. And now we're talking about the Super Bowl. Uh,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: he'd be lucky. You'd be lucky to get multiple touches
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: in this game. And even if he catches multiple passes,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: which is unlikely because it's the receptions props one and
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: a half UM, you know, he would need he would
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: probably still need a third touch to go over that um,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: and his most likely outcome is probably one touch. So
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: I think this number is way too high, and just
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: again based on a residency bias of him scoring that
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: long screen pass touchdown that kind of you know, inflated
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: his average. But we're looking for the media here, um,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: and I think his median is is actually in the
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: single digits in terms of his scrimmag yards so some J. P.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Ryan under fifteen fourteen and a half rushing and receiving
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: and Matthew Stafford under five and a half Russian. I
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: thought you said something really interesting in the podcast that
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: you and Croner did again, go check it out Action
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Network podcast prop of Palooza. Um. You talked about how
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: the Bengals game plan might only have one great play
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: for him in there, and they might have used it. Already. Yeah.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: So if you watch the ANFC Championship game, you noticed
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: p Ryan got that screen pass touchdown, which was well designed.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Didn't mean for it to go for a touchdown, honestly,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: it was more like, uh, one of those players that
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: you're hoping gets you, you know, a good chunk, but
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: he took it all away. And then he had another
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: play that actually could have gone for a touchdown, but
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: he ran the wrong route. Uh, and so that was
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: later so I you know, that's before that again he
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: had it had he done nothing for five games straight,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: so they used like they had these two plays drawn
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: up for him to kind of catch the Chiefs off guard,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: you know, because when mixing comes out, it's usually okay,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: we don't have to worry about whoever is in the
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: backfield we were, we gotta worry about Chase and Higgins
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: and boy and use Oma. So it's like they kind
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: of threw everything they had in terms of the somaj
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: p Ryan tank out in that Chiefs game. I wouldn't
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: be surprised if this dude like he's he's liable not
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: to play a snap in this game, all right, in
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the spirit it convinced me, which is the show that
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: the three of us do Sunday mornings eleven a m
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Eastern at Action Network HQ. That is the place where
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: everybody who's been listening to the Favorites knows you can
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: get our thoughts and insights on lines as they are
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: changing in real time. That's where everything is up to
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: the minute. On that show, each of you is usually
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: tasked with having to convince me of what bet I'm
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: going to take, whether it's a side, a total player prop, whatever.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Um you kind of convinced me of everything. I've already
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: bet Somer G. P Ryan. I bet him under fourteen
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: and a half because that was available already. Bet Cooper
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Cup over twenty and a half. I already bet Kevin
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Hubert over fifty two and a half. Longest punt. I'm
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: gonna bet Tee Higgins over sixty nine and a half.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I'll probably bet him. M V P. Simon on the
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: show Ray Bons m O all season has been I'm
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: gonna name the ugliest prop I can name to try
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: to get Chad to bet it. He just named Matthew
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Stafford under five and a half, some G. P Ryan
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: under fourteen, under fifteen and a half total receiving yards
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: or total rushing and receiving yards as a professional better
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: you hear something like Matthew Stafford under five and a
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: half yards. To me, that just feels so I know
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: what Raybond is saying about the value in the odds.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: That's one broken play in a game where everything can
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: go haywire every second because everyone's nerves are so afraid. Yeah,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: and but Chris is coming from it from a volume
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: better standpoint where it's like, if he loses this one
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: on the prop, he'll get it back down the road
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: just because it eventually evens out. So that that to
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: me is scary. As like you just said, he just
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: has one broken play. He takes a twenty yards, You're
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: just like, all right, I just need a couple of
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: big sacks and that's over. But I like it just
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: because he's taking advantage of what he just talked about.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: The public is betting that number up because Stafford has
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: been running the ball last couple of weeks. So to me,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: he's playing that spart He's gonna good value on the
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: good number. Let me just mentioned to um, you know,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: the Rams are the favorite in this game. I'm not
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: saying that like they're the best value on the spread.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: But did a favorite in his game, So Matthew Stafford
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: could get like a six seven yard scramble. Uh, three
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: nail downs and the gates that right, And that was
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: That's what I was gonna say. Like famously, Patrick Mahomes
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, his his rushing prop was
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: like twenty nine and a half or something like that. Creoner.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you remember the exact number I had. Yeah,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: I had Patrick Mahomes under twenty nine and a half
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: rushing yards and he had it. He was like forty yeo,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: I think. So he had three kneel downs that equated
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: like minus fifteen yards because he he was trying to
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: run the clock as well, so he ran backwards and
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: kneeled down for like minus ten yards of the clip.
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: It was the most amazing win I've ever had. It
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: honestly was one of the best wins. I had it too,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: And I kept watching him like, am I winning this
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: right now? Um? Coroner, I'm giving you one last chance
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: to give me one smash it right now player? Prop?
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Oh Man, So the h I have a few rushing props,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: but this one I love. It's Jamaar Chase, we'll have
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: more rushing yards than Cooper Cup. It was minus one forty,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: but it's already been bet up to minus one sixty.
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: I think it should be closer to minus two thirty.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: But you know, the Bengals have been giving Chase Russia
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: attempts in each of their three playoff games. Um, it
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: makes sense. You know, if they're struggling to get him
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: the ball, they get the ball in his hands, so
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: they have some design rush attempts. Whereas Cooper Cup, I
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: mean it's easy enough for him to get targets, like
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: he gets enough targets and receptions of the game. They
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: don't really give him design carries. So Cup only has
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: two rush tempts all season that went for two yards
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: or more, whereas Chase has seven, and four of those
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: have come in the playoffs. Um, so there's a chance
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: neither one gets rushed temp and this this bets a void,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: but I have this being closer a seventy chance. So,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: like I said, this should be closer to you know,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: minus two thirties. So I love the value we're getting
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: at minus one sixty here, all right, we got to
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: mar Chase more rushing yards than Cooper Cup. We've got
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Kevin Cuber over fifty two and a half UH for
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: max punting punting yards, We've got um Cooper Cup over
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: twenty eight and a half for longest reception. We've got
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: some Agi p Rhyme under fifteen and a half receiving
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: and rushing yards. Matthew Stafford under five and a half
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: rushing yards. We've got Tee Higgins over sixty nine and
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: a half receiving yards. We've got a lot of Tea
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Higgins for long shot MVP. We've got so many field
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: goal We've got so much for the first play. We've
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: got so much for the Unders in the first half,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: first six minutes, first quarter. I want to hear their
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: best long shots. I'll go first my long shot. It
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: goes against Chris a little bit, but not really. It's
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: my guy. Stafford two touchdowns one, he's had two rushing touchdowns.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: He's playoffs. The last game. He didn't get there. He
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: was close, but we did not get there. Had had
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: a friend him. An article that was very interesting about
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: when they traded for O'Dell. Back to back Friday practices,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: they ran their own version of the Philly Special with
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: O'Dell passing the ball to Stafford. They have not used
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: to play all season. This is this is when you
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: bust those plays out. So if I can get Stafford
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: give me some QB sneak and you know, first second quarter,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: then they run a little Philly Special gatting that second touchdown.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Hundred of one chat, I mean, I'll throw a grand
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: to win a hundred K and I'll be damn happy
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: if ever hit. So that's my favorite long shot. Like,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: what the hell hundred of one kind of bet? What
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: do you guys think? I love? I love the inside
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: uh Philly Special. I mean that's when you gener like
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: this is the last game of the year and teams
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: kind of saved their best plays for this moment and
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: it's shown me they too. Right. So, um, last time
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: the Rams went to the Super Bowlay scored how many points? Three? Three?
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: I think I think he's gonna pull everything out the
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: bag that he has corner. Any last long shot that
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: we should be thinking about, Like I said, my my
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: long shot is Tee Higgins one to win Super m
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: v P. That's That's what I'm going with from my
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: long shot. All right, guys, we have officially covered it
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: all This has been the Favorites podcast The prop Spectacular
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman for
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybon for Sean Crooner. Make sure you listen to
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: their a hundred and twenty two minute Proper Palooza podcast
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network. And one quick note for our listeners,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: be sure to check out the three and Our podcast
• 44:37
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• 44:40
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• 45:05
  Speaker 1: For my BFF, my compadre, my companion Professional Better Simon Hunter,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: we will be back on Thursday talking about the sides,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: talking about the totals, talking about the sharp calls for
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Rams. Don't forget you can catch
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: about four of us along with Samantha Pavidian darn Revell
• 45:24
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• 45:27
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• 45:33
  Speaker 1: wherever you get them until Thursday. Love you,