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SPECIAL COVERAGE: Israel and Hezbollah Reach Ceasefire · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
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  Speaker 2: Under the deal reached today, effective at four am tomorrow
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  Speaker 2: local time, the fighting across the Celebanies Israeli border will end,
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  Speaker 2: will end. This is designed to be a permanent cessation
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  Speaker 2: of hostilities.
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  Speaker 3: What is left of.
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  Speaker 2: Hesbalah and another terrorist organization will not be allowed.
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  Speaker 1: President Biden there in the Rose Garden at the White
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  Speaker 1: House saying that Israel and Hesbela have agreed to a
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  Speaker 1: cease fire deal. Giving his remarks on the Middle East conflict,
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  Speaker 1: he says this ceasefire deal will last for sixty days.
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  Speaker 1: He also went on to say that the people of
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  Speaker 1: Gaza also deserve a cease fire deal, and he says
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  Speaker 1: the only way out for Hamas is to release those
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  Speaker 1: hostages that have been held in captivity. So a big day,
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  Speaker 1: and we certainly heard earlier in the day from Prime
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  Speaker 1: Minister Benjamin Notat in Yahoo said he would bring the
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  Speaker 1: proposed ceasefire to a vote by his security cabinet.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, that ceasefire, Lebanon ceasefire begins at four am local time.
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  Speaker 4: For more, let's go to Bloomberg News. US National Security
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  Speaker 4: Team Leader Nick Wadhams, who's standing by in Washington, DC. Nick,
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  Speaker 4: good to have you joining us on this breaking news.
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  Speaker 4: Help us understand where exactly this ceasefire, what part of
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  Speaker 4: the war the ceasefire effects, and what part of the
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  Speaker 4: war is still continuing to be ongoing.
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  Speaker 5: So there are essentially two fronts to this war. There's
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  Speaker 5: Israel's battle with Hamas and the Gaza Strip, and then
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  Speaker 5: resulting from that, after the attack by Hamas on October
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  Speaker 5: seventh that provoked the Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip,
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  Speaker 5: you've seen increasingly intense fire between Hesbela and Israel, and
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  Speaker 5: in recent weeks that essentially turned into a full blown
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  Speaker 5: war where you had Hesbelah launching missiles from Lebanon into Israel,
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  Speaker 5: and you also had Israel widening the scope of a
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  Speaker 5: pretty devastating campaign against Hesbolah in Lebanon, taking out many
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  Speaker 5: of its top leaders and also striking targets in the
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  Speaker 5: heart of Bay Root, essentially turning that city essentially into
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  Speaker 5: a war zone. So that was where the Biden administration
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  Speaker 5: and others such as France, which was also a sort
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  Speaker 5: of handmade into this deal, found the prospect for an agreement,
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  Speaker 5: and that's really where they focus. So what you see
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  Speaker 5: today is the Biden administration getting that pause. Hopefully they
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  Speaker 5: say it'll be much longer than a pause, It'll be
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  Speaker 5: a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hesbalah. And then as
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  Speaker 5: the President mentioned there, that would then in turn allow
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  Speaker 5: for pressure to be put on Israel and Hamas to
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  Speaker 5: get the much authority or agreement, which would be an
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  Speaker 5: end to the violence in the Gaza strip. That's still
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  Speaker 5: quite a long ways off, no indication that that would
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  Speaker 5: be able to be completed by the end of Biden's
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  Speaker 5: term and when President Elect Trump takes over.
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  Speaker 1: Nick safe to say that the Israel war in Lebanon
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  Speaker 1: and that was not very popular with the people of Israel.
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  Speaker 1: But I do wonder about bringing some kind of end
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  Speaker 1: to what's happening in Gaza. Is that as likely? Should
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  Speaker 1: we assume that an end to that is just around
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  Speaker 1: the corner or these are two different fronts and two
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  Speaker 1: different stories here.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, that's We've had a lot of false
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  Speaker 5: hopes over the months since October seventh, twenty twenty three,
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  Speaker 5: when Hamas launched that attack on Israel, that we would
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  Speaker 5: see something. There had been a very brief cease fire
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  Speaker 5: at one point, but you know, The intractable problem there
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  Speaker 5: is that Israel says it will not stop the fight
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  Speaker 5: in Gaza until Hamas no longer exists as a fighting force.
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  Speaker 5: Hamas meanwhile says, even though it's in a vastly degraded state,
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  Speaker 5: it says it will not end the fighting until Israel
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  Speaker 5: with draw us from the Gaza strip. I mean, those
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  Speaker 5: are two fundamentally oppositional goals, and so far the two
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  Speaker 5: sides have found no way to be able to reconcile them.
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  Speaker 5: You also, obviously have the fate of the Israeli hostages.
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  Speaker 5: There's a dwindling number of those hostages, but there are
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  Speaker 5: many still be believed to be alive in Gaza. Israel
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  Speaker 5: wants the back Hamas does not want to give them
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  Speaker 5: up because then it has no leverage essentially against Israel.
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  Speaker 5: So a much thorny or much more intractable, intractable conflict,
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  Speaker 5: And it looks like, you know, with the Biden administration
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  Speaker 5: having less than two months in office, that's going to
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  Speaker 5: be a very very big hill to climb for them
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  Speaker 5: to be able to wrap that up.
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  Speaker 4: So that's exactly where I wanted to end, Nick, is
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  Speaker 4: the idea of the incoming administration versus the Biden administration.
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  Speaker 4: So what the Trump administration has said about the war,
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  Speaker 4: the war's happening right now versus what the Biden administration
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  Speaker 4: has sat and tried to do and even today's development,
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  Speaker 4: How does that change when President elect Trump takes office
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  Speaker 4: on January twentieth.
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  Speaker 5: Well, that's the question that is really front and center
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  Speaker 5: for everyone, because President Elect Trump has essentially given some
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  Speaker 5: pretty conflicting remarks on that, saying, on the one hand,
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  Speaker 5: he believes that Israel should be allowed to finish the
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  Speaker 5: job so that too many people suggests step up paign
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  Speaker 5: in the Gaza strip against Hamas. He's also said though,
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  Speaker 5: that he wants it to be wrapped up as quickly
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  Speaker 5: as possible. So you could see a situation where Trump
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  Speaker 5: essentially puts more pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who
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  Speaker 5: gives him a free reign to do more of what
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  Speaker 5: he wants, but less time to do it. He would
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  Speaker 5: have some more leverage over Netanyahu because of the relationship
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  Speaker 5: between the two of them, Trump and net and Yao,
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  Speaker 5: who have a much cozier relationship than Biden and net Yahoo,
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  Speaker 5: which was much more stand offish. So really difficult to
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  Speaker 5: know how that plays out, because of course Hamas has
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  Speaker 5: a say here. They can keep up the fight themselves,
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  Speaker 5: but certainly President elect Trump has promised to bring this
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  Speaker 5: to a swift end. The challenge, though, of course, as
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  Speaker 5: I say, is his way of doing that is to
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  Speaker 5: give Israel more of a free hand. So we'll have
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  Speaker 5: to see how that plays out.
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  Speaker 1: Hey, Nick, one last question, and let's just remind everybody
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  Speaker 1: the top headline off this story. President Bind just speaking
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  Speaker 1: from the Rose Garden at the White House saying Israel
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  Speaker 1: reached a ceasefire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah
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  Speaker 1: after weeks of talks mediated excuse me, by the United States,
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  Speaker 1: and hailing this agreement as a major step to ending
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  Speaker 1: a conflict that we know has killed thousands of people.
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  Speaker 1: But it's not over yet. As we've been talking about
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  Speaker 1: what's going on in the Gaza strip, I am curious Nick,
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  Speaker 1: the timing of this. I'm assuming president like Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 1: is getting security briefs. Are we assuming that there's some
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  Speaker 1: conversations going on beyond between the president elect and the
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  Speaker 1: current president. Maybe there was when they met at the
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  Speaker 1: White House after Donald Trump was reelected. So I'm just
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  Speaker 1: curious what you are hearing behind the scenes when it
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  Speaker 1: comes to what's going on bigger picture.
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  Speaker 5: Sure, I mean we know that the Trump, the incoming
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  Speaker 5: Trump administration, the Trump transition team has been getting briefings. However,
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  Speaker 5: we do have one government at a time, and it
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  Speaker 5: is actually illegal for non government Americans to conduct foreign
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  Speaker 5: policy ostensibly on the government's behalf or as a sort
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  Speaker 5: of government in waiting. That's not really something Trump can do. However,
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  Speaker 5: what we do know is what we don't know the
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  Speaker 5: extent of any conversations between Biden and Trump. I'd suspect
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  Speaker 5: they'd be quite limited. We do know there have been
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  Speaker 5: several conversations between Trump and Prime Minister Net and Yahoo,
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  Speaker 5: and that's obviously the thing we're all trying to crack
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  Speaker 5: what exactly they're saying to each other. What we've heard
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  Speaker 5: from the Trump administration is it is not very detailed
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  Speaker 5: conversations that they're not really talking deep strategy or anything
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  Speaker 5: like that. But you could imagine a scenario where Trump
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  Speaker 5: is going to put pressure on net and Yahoo in
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  Speaker 5: one way or another, either to wrap things up or
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  Speaker 5: who knows. So that's really something that we're trying to crack.
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  Speaker 5: We do know those conversations are going on all.
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  Speaker 1: Right, so appreciate it. Bloomberg News US National Security Team
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  Speaker 1: leader Nick Wadams right there standing by with us. Khaleite
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  Speaker 1: Alstein is Bloomberg News Economy and Government reporter. She's joining
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  Speaker 1: us on the phone from Tel Aviv Galt. Initial thoughts
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  Speaker 1: on this news and what it means for the war
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  Speaker 1: in between Israel and yes, obviously with Hesbela, but also
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  Speaker 1: with Hamas.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, yes, goodnight from television, so obviously on Israel's more
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  Speaker 3: with Isabella. This is some sea fire that you just
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  Speaker 3: mentioned is about to go into effect four and a
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  Speaker 3: half hours according to the reports that we're hearing here,
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  Speaker 3: and this will bring to an end a war that
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  Speaker 3: and ongoing fire exchanges that have been going on between
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  Speaker 3: Israel and Iran backs Isabella since October eighth and twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty three. So that will definitely be a big change
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  Speaker 3: for in this situation that it has been ongoing for
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  Speaker 3: over over a year. One of Israel's achievements, officials here say,
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  Speaker 3: is that by achieving this sea fire agreement, Israel has
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  Speaker 3: managed to disconnect the war with his ballad in Lebanon
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  Speaker 3: from the war that is going on with Hamas in Gaza.
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  Speaker 3: You know, this is something that Israel was unable to
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  Speaker 3: do for a very long time because his Bala leader,
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  Speaker 3: Hassan Asada, which is well assassinated in late September, he
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  Speaker 3: made a very strong point of saying that the two
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  Speaker 3: Arenas and the two armed fronts are connected. And ever
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  Speaker 3: since he was taken down by Israel and leadership in
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  Speaker 3: his Balla changed. Israel has wanted to disconnect between the
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  Speaker 3: two arenas and it is now from from the Israeli perspective,
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  Speaker 3: it has managed to do that. And now Israel is
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  Speaker 3: hoping that when Hamas is left on its own secluded,
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  Speaker 3: you know which Isabella already part of a seafire deal,
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  Speaker 3: it will put more pressure on Hamas to perhaps reach
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  Speaker 3: a ceasefire agreement with Israel in Gaza.
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  Speaker 4: Also relee where does Iran fall in all of this
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  Speaker 4: and how does their role change as a result of
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  Speaker 4: this cease fire.
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  Speaker 3: So reports we're hearing for starters are that Iran did
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  Speaker 3: support and back there's some sea fire agreement between Chrisbella
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  Speaker 3: and Israel. Otherwise it probably would not have been able
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  Speaker 3: to move forward as as it has and as it
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  Speaker 3: should tomorrow morning. So so that's one one thing to
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  Speaker 3: know about Iran. Now, Iran and Israel have been exchanging
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  Speaker 3: fire for for several months now. Every every few months,
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  Speaker 3: Iran has been attacking as well, ballistically solves as well
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  Speaker 3: has retaliated recently in an attack of its own. Iran
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  Speaker 3: has has now seemed to kind of take a step
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  Speaker 3: back and its intentions to once again retaliate against as
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  Speaker 3: well and see what the Trump administration is going to
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  Speaker 3: look like for them, for Iran and perhaps some negotiating
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  Speaker 3: new nuclear deal with you know, with the US and
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  Speaker 3: other nations. So Iran it's kind of looks like now
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  Speaker 3: like it's sitting on the fence. It is noteworthy that
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  Speaker 3: Benjamin Attemao, when he was giving a televis statement this
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  Speaker 3: evening just ahead of the of the Cabinet of the
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  Speaker 3: Israeli cabinets approval of the ceasefire agreement, he did mention
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  Speaker 3: that one of the reasons for Israel to want to
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  Speaker 3: achieve a ceasefire, which isabelle at this time, is that
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  Speaker 3: it can focus on the Iranian threat. And he said
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  Speaker 3: he would not elaborate on what this means, but he
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  Speaker 3: was obviously, you know, saying two three run right, and
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  Speaker 3: we're still looking at you and we're still looking to
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  Speaker 3: stop you from becoming a nuclear nation.
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  Speaker 1: Kolly just got about thirty seconds here. So is this
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  Speaker 1: you know you're on the ground there, you understand the pressure.
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  Speaker 1: We talked earlier with our Nick Wadams, who covers national
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  Speaker 1: security certainly here in the United States. But saying that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, ending what was going on Lebanon maybe is
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  Speaker 1: not on the same doesn't necessarily mean we're going to
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  Speaker 1: see an end to what's going on with Hamas and
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  Speaker 1: uh Palestinians right now. So I just I'm wondering, tell
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  Speaker 1: us what you can say, is this, Is this a
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  Speaker 1: big step forward to we assume that we can see
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  Speaker 1: an end to the conflict very soon everywhere or not
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  Speaker 1: necessarily just quickly.
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  Speaker 3: So to summon up very quickly with Hamas. Maybe, like
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  Speaker 3: I said, if Commas feels more secluded now and feels that,
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  Speaker 3: you know, more pressure, maybe this can advance and see
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  Speaker 3: for ideal between Israel and Comas. Iran is a different story.
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  Speaker 3: Not that Trisabella is weakened after the war with Israel.
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  Speaker 3: They are more exposed to perhaps an attacked against its
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  Speaker 3: energy and mulcular facilities. I'm not saying that this is
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  Speaker 3: on the table here and now, but this is definitely
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  Speaker 3: something that NATANIAO has been hinting at. And it still
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  Speaker 3: remains to be seeing whether the direct exchanges between Iran
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  Speaker 3: and Israel that we've seen over the past month over
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  Speaker 3: at this point and Lias until the chump and aguration,
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  Speaker 3: or we'll see more of those exchanges on coming.
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  Speaker 1: We do know it's late, and we appreciate you giving
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  Speaker 1: an update on the situation, certainly since you're there on
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  Speaker 1: the ground. Khalide, thank you so much. Khalide Alstain Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: News Economy and Government report on the phone with us
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  Speaker 1: from Tel Aviv