Latest / Speaking of Supply Chain / Unveiling Global Disruptions: Miebach's Risk Management Findings

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Unveiling Global Disruptions: Miebach's Risk Management Findings · Speaking of Supply Chain

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  You're listening to Speaking of Supply Chain, a Mebach podcast. This is a
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  show for logistics professionals looking to learn more about the latest innovations in supply chain.
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  Each episode will feature a conversation on topics such as mitigating supply chain disruption
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  and reducing risk, current automation trends, sustainability initiatives, and more. Let's
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  dive right in. Hello, and welcome to Speaking of Supply Chain, where
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  we explore trends, current events, and innovations impacting the logistics and supply chain
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  industries. I'm your host, Ellen Wood. I am joined today by Danielle
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  Simon and Tim Wagner from MEBAK, and we are going to be talking today
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  about supply chain risk management and a study that has just been released on the
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  topic. And welcome both of you. Daniel Tim, thank you very much
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  firing us. Hello add in, thanks to be here to our topic today,
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  which is apply chain risk management and very specifically this study that has just
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  been released by Mebach. And this is a study that we've done previously,
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  so this is something that we refresh every few years. Is that accurate?
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  I think the last one was in twenty nineteen. Yes, this is completely
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  true. So actually, supply chain risk management has has quite some history already
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  within MEBACH, and not just within MEBACH, also within organizations. So we've
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  always had disruptions like, for instance in two thousand and four, the tsunami
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  in Southeast Asia, we had the financial crisis in two thousand and eight,
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  the earthquake in Japan two thousand and eleven, So a long history of disruption.
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  There's always something, there's always something, and especially you you brought the
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  topic up already the last study in two nineteen. Compared to right now,
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  especially within the last three years, a lot has changed. Actually. So
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  we had, for instance, the COVID nineteen Pandama with global impacts in the
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  form of lockdowns that were ordered by state authorities all around the world and caused
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  operations and supply chains had to shut down more or less simultaneously than we had
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  the ever given example. Or we have the political tensions that are currently between
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  the Ukraine and Russia. So there's really a very long list of different disruptions
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  that we saw, especially within the last three years. And what we also
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  saw that for the first time, these disruptions seemed to bring more or less
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  a shift. So before the topic supply chain risk management was dealt within more
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  or less in theory, so we had a lot of publications and papers,
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  etc. On that topic. But now for the first time we see that
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  there's really a public attention on that, so everybody discusses that topic. And
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  due to that, we see that there's really the shift towards more resiliency and
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  establishing supply chain risk management in organizations. And this is also one of the
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  main motivations behind the study to really investigate on that shift that is currently happening,
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  and in these terms, also to investigate how has the risk environment now
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  changed, in particular within the last three years, what are the challenges that
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  that companies are facing, How well were they prepared for these risks that we
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  just discussed, like for instance, COVID, And in this transition towards more
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  resiliency, what are the measures that organizations are implementing or taking in the short,
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  mid and long term. So I can imagine that that study from twenty
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  nineteen. I haven't gone back to read it again. I remember reading it
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  initially, but I haven't gone back to read it. But it would be
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  interesting to go back and read that and think, well, you know,
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  how does how does this look compared to the lens that we have now?
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  Were we even remotely considering some of the scopes of the disruptions that have happened
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  since then. So you you mentioned COVID. Obviously I feel like we're just
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  beating a dead horse and talking about COVID. Everything is COVID, It's all
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  related to COVID. But it really was such a huge global disruption for everyone.
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  There's no one that that disruption did not touch in some way, shape
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  or form. And some of these other disruptions, the ever given, with
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  the tsunami, with the political unrest in in Ukraine. You know, all
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  of these things are affecting very far reaching and people are paying attention to it
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  now. As you said, they they have a vested interest in understanding the
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  repercussions of some of those, even just regional events affecting the supply chains and
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  on a global capacity. So what has changed since that report in twenty nineteen,
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  because I'm sure you've read it, you've looked at it. What's different?
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  Definitely? So maybe one one short disclaimer. So the topic supply chain
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  risk management was also in twenty nineteen of great interest, So I think one
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  of the last questions. One of one of the last points that we're mentioned
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  there is that most of respondents said, yes, supply chain risk management will
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  be more relevant in the future. And this is now, this was obviously
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  they were right, actually and they were definitely right. And what we see
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  now and this disc goes perfectly along with the results from the previous study.
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  One of our first questions was do you feel that the risk for your supply
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  chains has increased? And over nineteen percent of the respondent said yes, the
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  risk has increased. So now with the results of the study in our hand,
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  we can also quantify that that impression that most of our respondents yet,
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  that that that they share. So we see compared to two thousand nineteen,
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  that the number of disruptions had increased by forty percent. Compared to the year
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  two thousand nineteen, the response had forty percent more disruptions. So on average,
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  they had ten disruptions per year and two thousand nineteen and now they have
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  fourteen fourteen disruptions per company per year, which is already a very high number.
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  That's really significant. But apart from that, the second perspective that we've
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  analyzed within our study is that these disruptions also have more severe impacts. So
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  what we did is that we didn't just ask for the pure number of disruptions.
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  We also gave them the chance to to rate these disruptions in different categories.
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  So we had, for instance, the category a very low risk to
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  low, medium, severe or even existensionally threatening. And what we saw especially
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  in these upper two categories, for instance, these severe risks, there's really
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  a huge increase of these risks. So in twenty nineteen we had fifteen percent
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  of all risks within that category, and right now this increase to twenty two
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  percent. So to to translate this, more than every fifth disruption that ocus
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  as a sea impact on the organization. And this is uh, this is
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  really tremendous and really really ash. So not only are there more disruptions,
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  they're bigger exactly, Yes, So you're going to have more disruptions. One
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  of them is going to be huge. What kinds of things are um,
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  so you said that the results and the implications from these these impacts or these
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  disruptions are getting larger as well, What what kind of impacts our companies looking
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  out for? What are they what are they afraid of happening? What's what's
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  their fear that's going to happen? Is it a financial is it um?
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  You know? Are they are they looking at disruptions in terms of just not
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  being able to get product where it needs to be, or are they looking
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  at, you know, losing business. I know one thing that is um
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  you know, it's it's very known right now in in the US, and
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  that is with you know, Budweiser beer. And there's a huge disruption in
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  you know, some customer perception and that's a that's a huge, huge disruption
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  for their production that they're not they're not selling as much. So are some
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  of these disruptions in terms of losing market share or is it just you know,
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  not being able to serve customers in the way and fashion that they intended
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  to. So I think both both is right. Actually, So if I
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  translate this to to our how we classified it internally, we have these direct
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  losses and these indirect losses. Direct losses would be, for instance, I
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  can't deliver to my customers anymore, and for that I have for example loss
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  sales which I can quantify perfectly. Or I have if an earthquake hits my
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  production facility and this facility breaks down, then I have also a financial damage.
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  So this is what I can quantify. What you were also referring to
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  that Buttweiser example where I'm afraid of losing market shairs if I can't supply my
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  customers. This is quite hard to quantify. So this is why we call
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  it indirect indirect losses. But of course at the end both is connected together,
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  and companies are afraid of both. Actually exactly, a loss is a
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  loss, regardless of how it happened. But the how is is where we
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  get into trying to mitigate those risks, and that is where this study is
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  really trying to drill down. And so how well were companies prepared for some
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  of the risks we talked about the study in twenty nineteen. They knew there
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  were risks coming, they knew there were potentially big risks. We've identified the
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  fact that there are more and they're bigger now now. But what did they
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  do or what have they done in terms of trying to prepare for those risks
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  and be ready for them knowing that they're coming. Yeah, you say,
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  you say knowing that they're coming. But in case of these last three years
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  especially, we probably have to say none of us were prepared for what was
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  coming. These risks that we faced were some of the probably most unprecedented that
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  we have seen in the last decades. And usually when you draw a risk
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  matrix where you have those that have low impact and low probability and you have
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  those that have high probability and high impact. These were the ones that have
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  low probability with high impact, so the ones that you don't expect, at
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  least at this scale. So nevertheless, we found out that at least ninety
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  four percent of the company needs that took part in this study latest now have
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  in supply chain risk management process set up, so hopefully a lot of them
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  were going in prepared so that not this was a follow up of the last
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  three years building up this supply chain risk management, but it was already set
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  up before that. And what we also see is that the importance of the
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  whole topic has been recognized and is one of the top priorities in most companies.
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  So it goes up to sea level now that they are involved in this
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  process, which is very important to make quick and decisive decisions once such risks
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  break out, because that's I think in the end a question of how quickly
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  can you decide on what to do that can save you in the end,
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  like we thought, like we talked about a lot of money and can mitigate
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  the impact. So we hope that a lot of people and a lot of
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  companies were going in prepared. But at least now we see that this shift
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  that Tim was talking about, and it's really set up in the companies by
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  being prepared at least for what's next looking bit from now on. Well,
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  and you mentioned that the c suite is more involved. Are they more in
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  tune or or up to speed in terms of some of these these risk mitigation
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  strategies then they were previously. So I know a lot of times, you
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  know, you have the person in operations who has this concern. You know,
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  obviously they have a vested interest in making sure that things continue to run
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  and getting that that audience with the C suite and really having a strategy on
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  how to navigate these changes in the supply chain. I know, for years
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  it felt like they just weren't able to get the face time, they weren't
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  able to be taken seriously. And I feel like now the C suite is
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  a little bit more involved in the supply chain overall, it's not just you
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  know, the operational factors, it's a business function. Did you see that
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  in the report as well? Yes, exactly. So I think supply chain
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  and the words supply chain and what it means. I guess after those last
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  three years, now everyone knows what that means and what it is, and
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  it's not a niche. It's now the backbone of a company. It was
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  always, but it's also now perceived as that. And so I think and
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  also what we see is that the C level has to there is no chain,
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  no chance to not give attention to that topic because it's a competitive advantage
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  to be prepared for supply chain disruptions that will help you for the next coming
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  years. Because we're still looking although the last three years we're already quite crazy,
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  we might be looking into a future which might stay a bit like this.
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  I hope not, but I understand the sentiment that, yes, we
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  need to be prepared. We've already dealt with really really catastrophically bad. Hopefully
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  we never have to face that again, but we're prepared, or we at
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  least have some scope of reference for what we might need to be prepared for.
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  I guess you know, yay, everyone knows about supply chain. Now
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  we are no longer niche, we are front and center. We finally get
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  the recognition we deserve. Go us exactly. So, how effective was the
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  risk management that they had put into place or that's being put into place now,
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  I mean, are they We've got more risks coming, We've got higher
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  risks, c suites involved, We've got strategies to mitigate. Are these strategies
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  working. Yes they are, although also here we always have to keep in
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  mind or in perspective that these outbreaks that we had over the last couple of
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  years, they were not very likely. So a suppliging risk management is always
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  good. And we found out in the study that if it's a well functioning
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  and well prepared process, that over fifty percent of the respondence that we had
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  in the study could mitigate the impacts of the top risks that occurred in the
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  last couple of years. So basically every second company was able to mitigate the
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  impact. Although you sometimes also have to like wave the white flag and say,
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  okay, this is a risk where even a suppliging risk process, no
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  matter how good it is, cannot help you, as with COVID, because
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  it's such a globe perspective, guilbal singum where everyone is involved. That also,
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  the best processes can't really help you, right when when everyone is not
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  to their knees, then it's it's not a matter of keeping a competitive advantage
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  in business, it's just survival and everyone's trying to survive. So so what
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  are some things going forward? So you've you've measured everything pre COVID to now
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  we've looked at some of the those those risk mitigations. And even when we
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  say mitigation, that does not mean nothing happened. That does not mean nothing
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  went wrong where there wasn't any loss. That was just keeping the loss to
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  the absolute minimum. So what are some things that that companies are doing to
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  plan for that those next unexpected risks, those next crazy things that could happen
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  on the on the horizon that we don't know about yet but we know we
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  need to be prepared for. Yeah. So actually there are different measures or
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  different possible ways to cluster these measures. So in the short term, at
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  least, what we saw within these crisis situations within the last three years,
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  we saw that companies tend to build up redundancies, for example, in the
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  form of increased inventories or in the procurement section in the form of dual or
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  multi sourcing which they established. So we see really that there are there's really
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  a focus then once the companies are already in such a crisis situation, on
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  measures that are easy and fast to implement. So these things of course also
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  come with additional costs, so we have for example, more inventory holding costs
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  or a higher organizational effort. But what is quite interesting to see is that
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  especially within the last three years, there was this twist also in the trends
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  back from even more leaner supply chains towards more resilience apply chains. So this
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  is then at least what we see in the short term. For the mid
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  and long term, there we really start to see structural changes in the supply
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  chains. So for example, regarding geo geographical risks, we see a relocation
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  or near shoring, that is that is planned for companies. Then of course
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  what we also see is that companies start to implement additional notes in order to
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  diversify their supply chain and make them more resilient against these risks or additional notes
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  for critical for critical ones, we have that diversification and this is also by
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  the way. One project that I'm currently working on where we have an electronics
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  OEM that is producing currently in China and that wants to get a little bit
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  more independent from China and is thereby now searching for an additional product tan side
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  in the APEC region, and now we are heavily discussing to set up a
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  location, for example, in Thailand and Malaysia. So all these countries that
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  offer a quite political a stable political environment, but on the other hand side
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  also comparably low wages or low infrastructure costs, they are getting the new champions,
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  or to say so, they are getting the countries that companies are looking
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  for in order to yet diversicate their supply chains even more and decent. These
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  are really trends that that we often see and often get approached by the clients
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  or within conversation. Yes, we talk very frequently about so resiliency and redundancy
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  in supply chain being much more, much more on topic and much more considered
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  than it had been in the past because it was all about leans fly chain
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  prior to to COVID and twenty twenty. So now that we know that that
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  is not a sustainable model, we know we need a little bit more resiliency,
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  a little bit more redundancy. But then, you know, it's interesting
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  that you you mentioned that companies are looking to near shoring, but um not
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  only near shoring, but just even looking at other geographies or other areas where
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  they could capitalize and bring bring business to new geographies and build and have additional
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  facilities and as you said, more nodes in other areas where they maybe not
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  had considered previously just because they didn't feel they needed to. So that's that's
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  great that we're you know, bringing some additional business into some new areas.
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  So what other things are going on aside from resiliency and redundancy. What is
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  going to make the difference for companies that want to come out of this and
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  be extremely successful, So to use their supply chain as a competitive advantage and
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  using the risk management as the way to get there. Yes, so one
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  key factor for success is actually the use of tools, so to support their
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  already implemented supply chain risk management processes with tools, software or even AI.
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  So as we discuss that risks are getting more diverse, more global, and
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  tend to occur more often, our sublige or the organization supply chain risk management
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  processes are getting more and more under stress and more and more relevant. But
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  what we see in the current status quo is that most processes are connected with
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  a huge amount of manual work, which is on the one hand side,
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  very time and resource consuming, but on the other hand side also gives a
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  lot of room for errors that could be made. So in all to prevent
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  that and in order to leverage all the advantages that the supply chain risk management
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  can have, it is important to yet to increase the use of proper tools
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  that are already in place in the market and that can be used already.
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  And this is quite interesting as supply chain management is or supply chain managers in
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  general, are having to deal with a lot of data and they are using
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  tools very frequently. But what was interesting is that, especially when it comes
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  to supply chain risk management, they are not doing even though we see that
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  that tools can help to collect and analyze the data, can help to assess
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  supply chain weaknesses or prioritize risks. So this is really a huge section where
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  companies need to catch up. But the ones that do, they can profit
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  profit profit on that and they can leverage their competitive advantages through that you know
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  that that doesn't surprise me that there are companies with mountains of data that they're
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  not capitalizing on that is just sitting there in a computer, in a database
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  on a server somewhere, and it could be useful information. But who are
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  just so busy trying to keep up with everything that's going on today that you
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  getting into those analytics and using it as prescriptive to help us understand what could
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  happen and how to get around it. That that's just something waiting for a
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  rainy day to get to and it's raining outside, so maybe they ought to
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  get to it. I would like to add to other key points, one
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  more being on strategic decision making, which needs to reflect risks in the future,
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  especially or for example, when it comes to location assessments. So the
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  example that Tim already mentioned when talking about the decision to open up a new
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  production or a new warehouse in a different location, those are long term decisions.
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  They need to be prepared and they need to be good decisions. So
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  this example of near shoring is exactly that, and therefore these decisions should not
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  only take into account the possibility of cost reduction, which it maybe did in
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  the past. Will also include other factors like risk or also sustainability is a
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  huge topic. And if we look at that example again for lowering the dependency
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  from China, which a lot of companies are also trying to do all over
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  the world by creating redundancies in neighbor countries or also like new showing relocating back
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  closer to their whole market, for example, the fashion industry does that quite
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  often. Now coming back to Europe, actually, so a big part of
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  this decision should be to look at the risk probability of the new location,
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  because it doesn't make sense to walk away from a risk into a new one.
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  So it's basically what would you really have to take into account in these
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  decisions is the different risk categories. Just to make two examples, the natural
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  disasters that can happen basically everywhere all over the globe, like we had this
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  big catastrophic earthquake in Turkey, which is actually a market in Europe where the
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  labor is still quite cheap, but it's also close to major European markets.
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  Or also in the US, I guess you know the risk of hurricanes which
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  can happen in certain US states and sadly also happened regularly on a regular makers,
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  and also the whole geo political risks. It's not only China Taiwan,
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  it's also China and Hong Kong in the last couple of years, and it's
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  also the war in Ukraine which affects not only Ukraine but also countries in the
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  neighboring regions. So on a strategic level, implementing the risk topic is very
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  important, but it actually doesn't stop there. You can also bring it to
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  a tactical on operational level, where for example, risk monitoring can be beneficial
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  or sometimes even crucial for survival. There have been a lot of papers in
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  webinarstry during the last year from different companies that focused on demand planning and forecasting
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  as a huge huge topic at the moment, also driven by COVID, where
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  the demand was fluctuating by hundreds of percent probably and every time there is a
• 26:48
  risk outbreak, this demand can fluctuate and it gets more and more complex to
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  forecast it correctly and being able to quickly adapt to such risk outbreaks by simply
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  knowing them and being prepared and knowing what to do in case of that will
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  be crucial in the future and that can be also done, for example,
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  for transportation, if we talk about transport routing in case of any severe whether
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  events or any local risk outbreaks. For example a few years back we had
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  a big flood in Western Germany. To really adapt your strategy on this tactical
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  and operational level as quickly as possible to then, for example, just still
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  deliver your products in time. So all of this is very very important and
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  as Tim mentioned, needs to be supported by software or AI AI because a
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  manual or we as a person cannot be as good as a software in this
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  case. And AI will create a competitive advantage in the future. And whichever
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  company can use that to their advantage this technology and innovation on the market and
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  implement this and connect this to supply chain risks, they will have this competitive
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  advantage for the future and they will be the one that either survive the next
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  big outbreak or yeah, create additional market shares and really be the new leaders
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  in the future. You're absolutely right, And it's it's not even as much
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  that humans can't go through that that amount of data. It's that it would
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  take us too long and by them, the risk is over. I mean,
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  the emergency has already happened. So we need those tools to be able
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  to go through those mountains of data that are that are being collected with every
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  transaction, with every movement of you know, a piece of inventory, and
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  be able to you know, provide some of those insights, some of those
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  potentials to avoid disaster ahead of the disaster. If it would if it were
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  left up to you know, humans having to analyze that data, we could
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  do it. It'll take a while. So I absolutely agree one hundred percent
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  that that companies need to be utilizing some of those tools and technologies that are
• 29:22
  available in order to get ahead of the curve and stay ahead of the curve.
• 29:29
  Well, where can people access the full report, the full supply Chain
• 29:33
  Risk Management report. We will be putting that obviously onto the MEVA website and
• 29:38
  then together the report with this podcast, you get all the informations necessary and
• 29:45
  if there are still open questions or topics, and also if someone wants to
• 29:51
  go into discussion, then we are obviously happy to do so. All right,
• 29:56
  I will make sure that we have your your LinkedIn profiles in the podcast
• 30:00
  description, so if anyone has any questions, your phone will be ringing off
• 30:03
  the hook. I'm certain all right. That brings us to the end of
• 30:07
  this episode. Thank you so much Daniel and Tim for joining me today to
• 30:11
  discuss the supply chain risk management and the report specifically. I hope our listeners
• 30:17
  enjoyed the discussion as much as I did. If any of our listeners out
• 30:21
  there have a suggestion for a topic or a guest that they'd like to hear
• 30:25
  on the podcast, we'd love to hear from you. Please contact me at
• 30:29
  podcast at mebak dot com and let me know what you think, let me
• 30:32
  know who you'd like to hear from, and let me know what you want
• 30:34
  to hear about. As always, thanks for listening to Speaking of Supply Chain.
• 30:45
  You've been listening to Speaking of Supply Chain on mebock podcast. Keep connected
• 30:48
  with us by subscribing to the show in your favorite podcast player. If you
• 30:52
  like what you've heard, please rate the show that helps us to keep delivering
• 30:56
  the latest in supply chain information. Thanks for listening. Until all next on
• 31:00
  him m HM.