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How much money is the government shutdown costing the economy? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
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Speaker 1: Zada and Mark Vandetti, Chuck Mark.
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Speaker 2: Tucker with you here today, and as we take a
1:14
Speaker 2: look around markets, we've got some green on the board,
1:17
Speaker 2: not enough to reverse all of yesterday's losses, but the
1:20
Speaker 2: S and P is up twenty nine points, are a
1:21
Speaker 2: little less than half a percent, Dow's up about a
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Speaker 2: tenth of a percent, or forty nine points, and the
1:26
Speaker 2: NASDAK composite up three quarters of a percent about one
1:30
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy two points at the moment. Tenure US
1:34
Speaker 2: Treasury is selling off today, up six point six basis
1:38
Speaker 2: points to four point one five seven percent, so we've
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Speaker 2: now got about a quarter percent rise off the recent
1:45
Speaker 2: lows that we've seen there. Mortgage rates are also back
1:48
Speaker 2: in the six point three to three percent range. With
1:51
Speaker 2: this move today, you might be getting close to six',
1:53
Speaker 2: four but we'll have to see What Mortgage News daily's
1:56
Speaker 2: afternoon update. SHOWS us there index continuing its recent strength as,
2:01
Speaker 2: well a point zero four percent and back over one.
2:05
Speaker 2: Hundred and we've got gold rallying just a touch, today
2:08
Speaker 2: up twenty six eighty an ounce to thirty nine eighty
2:11
Speaker 2: seven and thirty, cents so back below four thousand, dollars
2:15
Speaker 2: but trying to make another run at. It crude oil
2:18
Speaker 2: up six cents a barrel to sixty dollars and sixty
2:21
Speaker 2: two cents in THE tripa national averageur gas prices taking
2:24
Speaker 2: a big jump up over the last couple of, days
2:27
Speaker 2: up two point six cents a gallon to three dollars
2:30
Speaker 2: and seven cents and nine tenths of a. CENT i
2:35
Speaker 2: don't know what's driving. THIS i haven't seen any major,
2:37
Speaker 2: news But i'm sure there is a refinery outage somewhere
2:42
Speaker 2: that's calling this since the price of oil has not really,
2:45
Speaker 2: moved so that's what's going on in broad markets.
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Speaker 3: In THE us.
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Speaker 2: Economy we continue to see THE us government shut down
2:54
Speaker 2: now heading into its thirty fifth, day and so so
3:00
Speaker 2: when you look at, this it's something where we're now
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Speaker 2: at the LONGEST us government shutdown that we have on. Record,
3:10
Speaker 2: again like you look at the previous ones that we've,
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Speaker 2: had the previous, closest the previous longest one that we
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Speaker 2: had was thirty Four i'm, sorry thirty five days back
3:24
Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen into early twenty, nineteen and again we're
3:30
Speaker 2: now at the point where we have we're into the
3:32
Speaker 2: thirty sixth day of this. Shutdown the economic impact is
3:38
Speaker 2: not something that is easy to measure, generally you, know
3:42
Speaker 2: the conventional wisdom is for each week of a shutdown
3:46
Speaker 2: you see maybe ae point one percent hit TO. Gdp
3:51
Speaker 2: but it's also not something where we have a lot
3:54
Speaker 2: of robust data on. This here are the lengths of
3:58
Speaker 2: shutdowns that we. Have i've seen one, day one, day one,
4:04
Speaker 2: day three, days three, days four, days six, days sixteen,
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Speaker 2: days twenty one, days thirty five, days and thirty six.
4:14
Speaker 2: Days so, ultimately the vast majority of, shutdowns aside from
4:21
Speaker 2: three of, them have been under.
4:23
Speaker 3: Three weeks in.
4:24
Speaker 2: Duration SO i don't think you can glean anything about
4:27
Speaker 2: the economic impact of a three day, shutdown because there
4:29
Speaker 2: are things that start to happen after thirty forty fifty
4:32
Speaker 2: sixty days that don't happen after. Three like a three day,
4:35
Speaker 2: shutdown you do not have missed pay, periods just as an,
4:37
Speaker 2: Example so, like how would you even model that you're
4:41
Speaker 2: now getting to the point where you're having multiple missed pay?
4:44
Speaker 2: Periods and, ULTIMATELY i think there is a point where
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Speaker 2: the impact becomes. LARGER i don't know what that point,
4:53
Speaker 2: is AND i don't know how much larger the impact
4:56
Speaker 2: becomes because we've never been there.
4:59
Speaker 3: Before you, know this is The Christopher columbus of.
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Speaker 2: Shutdowns it's taking a path not, traveled and you don't
5:08
Speaker 2: know what you're gonna find at the end.
5:10
Speaker 4: Of, it and when you do find, it you mistake
5:12
Speaker 4: it for something. Else MAYBE i don't know if you
5:14
Speaker 4: can extend the, metaphor.
5:16
Speaker 2: It's, possible but it's it's just something WHERE i don't
5:20
Speaker 2: know exactly what's going to, happen BUT i can tell
5:23
Speaker 2: you that each day you go, on it probably gets
5:26
Speaker 2: more dangerous and it's unclear you know what the impact
5:30
Speaker 2: ends up.
5:31
Speaker 4: Being we don't know what's going on behind the. Scenes
5:33
Speaker 4: maybe they're close to a meeting of the minds on
5:35
Speaker 4: the major.
5:36
Speaker 3: Issues, YEAH i.
5:39
Speaker 2: Wouldn't the betting markets have been stuck for the last
5:43
Speaker 2: week or. So saying that this thing will last somewhere
5:45
Speaker 2: in the mid forties number of. Days that's kind of
5:48
Speaker 2: what we've been seeing since Mid october is, okay like
5:53
Speaker 2: early to Mid november is when this will resolve.
5:56
Speaker 4: ITSELF i will say it occurred to me after reading
5:58
Speaker 4: election results last, night And i'm a not that this
6:01
Speaker 4: kind of, analyst but since we're speculating. Here if it's,
6:04
Speaker 4: okay If i'm, on If i'm A, democrat Which i'm,
6:08
Speaker 4: not but IF i, WERE i would think we're not
6:09
Speaker 4: getting blamed for. This we have absolutely no incentive To
6:11
Speaker 4: so What i'm saying is last night's, results to me
6:14
Speaker 4: an amateur political, observer not unlike anybody, listening we can
6:18
Speaker 4: all kind of speculate and have fun seem to make
6:20
Speaker 4: a resolution in the short term less not more. Likely
6:24
Speaker 4: they seem to be Doing, okay they're not getting. Blamed
6:27
Speaker 4: why would?
6:27
Speaker 2: They the counter to that is that If democrats already
6:31
Speaker 2: got through those elections with results that they, wanted then,
6:37
Speaker 2: okay there's no real incentive for them to continue with
6:40
Speaker 2: any kind of shut, down and maybe that moves towards
6:42
Speaker 2: a quicker, Resolution like you can make that.
6:45
Speaker 4: Case so why would they cave? Now i'm not. Disagreeing
6:49
Speaker 4: there's no way would they compromise now.
6:51
Speaker 2: TODAY i think that the potential for any short term
6:53
Speaker 2: political upside might be capp now that the, election like
6:56
Speaker 2: they may have already gotten what they wanted out of.
6:58
Speaker 2: It potentially, AGAIN i, yeah we're all speculating on.
7:02
Speaker 4: This, YEAH i don't.
7:03
Speaker 2: Know the big thing that is out there Is, thanksgiving
7:07
Speaker 2: and no one wants to be blamed for people not
7:10
Speaker 2: being able to get to their destinations On. Thanksgiving AND
7:14
Speaker 2: i think that's, why you, know part of the reason
7:16
Speaker 2: why betting markets have kind of settled on you, know
7:18
Speaker 2: this forty five days that gets things resolved somewhere towards
7:22
Speaker 2: the end of next week or early the week, after
7:26
Speaker 2: so that things resume normal operations By thanksgiving week and
7:30
Speaker 2: you don't have air traffic controllers OR tsa agents calling
7:32
Speaker 2: out sick and a bunch of people stranded at airports
7:35
Speaker 2: because airspaces are closed and things like.
7:38
Speaker 4: That, NOW i don't know what the individual players, here
7:41
Speaker 4: what their motivations. Are if they're acting on, principle sure
7:44
Speaker 4: then they might just think it's possibly doing some pain
7:47
Speaker 4: is worth it if the longer term gain exceeds the
7:50
Speaker 4: pain short term. PAIN i don't.
7:52
Speaker 3: Know, YEAH i don't.
7:54
Speaker 2: Know none of us know how long this is going to,
7:56
Speaker 2: last but it seems pretty clear it's not going to
7:58
Speaker 2: be resolved. Today and, again each day that you go
8:01
Speaker 2: on is the potential for more financial things to become
8:06
Speaker 2: problematic for, Individuals and if enough individuals have problematic financial,
8:11
Speaker 2: situations then it becomes a problem, locally and if enough
8:14
Speaker 2: localities have, situations then it develops into a national.
8:17
Speaker 4: Yea and it could contribute to the onset of. Recession
8:21
Speaker 4: government spends a little over twenty cents of every dollar
8:23
Speaker 4: spent at the federal.
8:24
Speaker 3: Level and, money so that is still being spent right,
8:26
Speaker 3: now by the.
8:27
Speaker 4: Way, yeah but even you, know a little bit on the. Margin,
8:29
Speaker 4: yes if growth is weak to begin, with could be
8:32
Speaker 4: enough to tip the economy into a different. State and
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Speaker 4: then once you're in that different, state it's not just
8:38
Speaker 4: a matter of snap in your fingers to break out of. It.
8:40
Speaker 4: Correct so you been saying, This you've been saying at
8:43
Speaker 4: some point you plod along at a rate that's just
8:45
Speaker 4: a function of, time it's just a straight. Line then
8:48
Speaker 4: at some point the little path you're on is no
8:50
Speaker 4: longer a straight. Line it slopes upward. Sharply and nobody
8:54
Speaker 4: saw that. Coming when is that bend? It does it even?
8:58
Speaker 3: Exist?
8:58
Speaker 2: Yeah so this is where we are right now with
9:01
Speaker 2: the shutdown and its economic. Impact as far as you
9:06
Speaker 2: know how long this thing goes, ON i don't. Know
9:09
Speaker 2: i'm not going to profess to. Know and when it's,
9:13
Speaker 2: over we'll tell. You it's about ALL i got on it.
9:16
Speaker 3: To take a quick.
9:17
Speaker 2: Break when we come. Back something else THAT i don't
9:20
Speaker 2: know how it's going to turn. Out The trump tariffs
9:23
Speaker 2: are now in front of The Supreme court. TODAY i
9:26
Speaker 2: am not a tariff, scholar SO i can't tell you
9:29
Speaker 2: what's going to. Happen but we'll tell you what's at,
9:31
Speaker 2: stake some of the possible permutations of where things end.
9:34
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Speaker 2: Button as of this very, moment the tariffs imposed By
11:27
Speaker 2: President trump earlier this, year or at least a set of,
11:30
Speaker 2: them are currently being heard in A Supreme court argument
11:36
Speaker 2: that is being argued right. Now, Obviously mark AND i
11:39
Speaker 2: are you, know doing our, show so we're not listening to,
11:42
Speaker 2: It nor Are mark AND i constitutional. Scholars it's it's you,
11:47
Speaker 2: know we're we're we don't have law. Degrees this isn't
11:49
Speaker 2: really about, economics so we're not going to tell you
11:53
Speaker 2: here's what we think will or won't, happen Because mark
11:57
Speaker 2: AND i don't have any unique insight. There WHAT i
11:59
Speaker 2: can tell you is that the case is being heard right,
12:03
Speaker 2: now and based, on you, know kind of what we've
12:07
Speaker 2: heard from people, who do you, know specialize in this,
12:09
Speaker 2: thing a ruling is likely to come somewhere towards the
12:12
Speaker 2: end of this year or early IN q, One so
12:15
Speaker 2: probably two to three months from now is what is.
12:19
Speaker 2: Expected questions that are out there that will. Matter number,
12:23
Speaker 2: one are The trump tariffs legal or? Not that's you,
12:28
Speaker 2: know kind of the whole crux of. It if they,
12:30
Speaker 2: are then things continue as they. Are if, not this
12:33
Speaker 2: is where things get interesting in terms of is there
12:36
Speaker 2: a potential, remedy meaning do companies Receive are they are
12:42
Speaker 2: companies entitled to a refund of any tariffs that have
12:47
Speaker 2: already been paid by? Them if, so what is the
12:51
Speaker 2: timeline for? That because remember that money is not just
12:53
Speaker 2: sitting IN us government. Coffers THE us government would have
12:56
Speaker 2: to likely issue bonds in order to issue tech treasuries
13:00
Speaker 2: in order to get that money. Back number, two if
13:05
Speaker 2: companies were harmed by, this were individuals also harmed in
13:09
Speaker 2: the purchase of tariff? Products and would individuals be entitled
13:13
Speaker 2: to relief from either companies or THE us. GOVERNMENT i
13:17
Speaker 2: have absolutely no idea what would the process and timeline
13:21
Speaker 2: for that look? Like, again no, idea but this is
13:23
Speaker 2: one of the things that is going to be out
13:26
Speaker 2: there as a. Question another, one if this particular approach
13:32
Speaker 2: is ruled to be unconstitutional or illegal by the executive,
13:36
Speaker 2: branch are there other avenues by which they can impose
13:40
Speaker 2: tariffs of similar nature that would have that would uphold you,
13:46
Speaker 2: know the legality or constitutionality that you need in order
13:49
Speaker 2: for them to be. Implemented there, are you, know a
13:52
Speaker 2: number of different paths that the executive branch can potentially
13:55
Speaker 2: use to impose. Tariffs and so just because these may
13:59
Speaker 2: be vacate doesn't mean that they can't be reimposed in
14:02
Speaker 2: a different fashion after a different means of study from
14:05
Speaker 2: THE Us Trade representative's office or other similar, things.
14:08
Speaker 4: Or you, Know god, forbid just put a bill in
14:10
Speaker 4: front Of congress or get them to pass The. Congress
14:13
Speaker 4: why can't they do that? Tomorrow?
14:14
Speaker 2: Correct Or congress could pass a bill saying we want
14:16
Speaker 2: to these Tere republicans do control EVERY i don't like the,
14:19
Speaker 2: tariffs BUT i couldn't argue with the process.
14:21
Speaker 4: Followed if indeed they did it that.
14:22
Speaker 2: Way SO i think these are all questions that are out,
14:26
Speaker 2: there and they are not ones THAT i have answers.
14:31
Speaker 3: Too we're going to hear what The Supreme.
14:32
Speaker 2: Court has to say probably in two or three months on,
14:35
Speaker 2: this and once we get to that, point we'll have.
14:38
Speaker 2: Clarity but you, KNOW i look around on social media
14:42
Speaker 2: and freaking like everyone instantly this morning became a constitutional,
14:47
Speaker 2: scholar like everyone's, saying definitively this is. Not BUT i
14:52
Speaker 2: am happy to say. THAT i don't know HOW i.
14:54
Speaker 4: WILL i will say one. Thing the idea that a
14:57
Speaker 4: trade deficit is an emergency is. Preposterous we've had a
15:00
Speaker 4: trade deficit since the nineteen. Seventies the reason is the
15:04
Speaker 4: difference between what we save and investment. Opportunity in this.
15:07
Speaker 4: Economy when you import, capital you have to at the
15:10
Speaker 4: same time import goods and. Services you pay for those
15:13
Speaker 4: goods and services with your home. Currency that home currency
15:16
Speaker 4: gets recycled back into your government's, debt for, EXAMPLE us,
15:19
Speaker 4: treasuries it gets recycled back into foreigners PURCHASING us real.
15:23
Speaker 4: Estate so the trade, deficit which if you google its
15:26
Speaker 4: history and you just look at the so called time
15:28
Speaker 4: series its value over, time you see something happened in
15:32
Speaker 4: the nineteen. Seventies what did capital controls were liberalized in
15:36
Speaker 4: the nineteen, Seventies japan was free to start investing In
15:39
Speaker 4: america the way it wasn't. Before they have huge excess.
15:41
Speaker 4: Savings that excess savings came. Here our dollars went out
15:44
Speaker 4: and Bought sony And toyota and other. Products so the
15:47
Speaker 4: trade deficit is a function of the international flow of
15:51
Speaker 4: payments and, capital and a function two of how much we.
15:54
Speaker 4: Save we don't save. Enough if you want to fix
15:56
Speaker 4: the trade, deficit you fix the savings. Problems there's a
16:00
Speaker 4: certain amount of economic literacy underlying the government's argument that
16:04
Speaker 4: this is some kind of national, emergency also belied by
16:07
Speaker 4: the fact that again we've had a trade deficit for
16:09
Speaker 4: fifty years THAT i feel perfectly comfortable with commenting.
16:12
Speaker 2: On so, ultimately again going to be two to three
16:14
Speaker 2: months before we get a ruling on this betting markets
16:18
Speaker 2: are saying with about a two to one, edge you,
16:20
Speaker 2: know call it sixty forty sixty five thirty, five that
16:23
Speaker 2: they expect to see these tariffs struck. Down but, AGAIN
16:27
Speaker 2: i don't know that sixty five to thirty five is particularly,
16:30
Speaker 2: informative just because a these betting markets can be wrong
16:35
Speaker 2: and be something that has a thirty five percent chance
16:37
Speaker 2: of happening still happens two and a half times in a.
16:39
Speaker 2: Week if you're trying, to you, know figure, out you,
16:41
Speaker 2: know how many days of the week would this. Happen
16:43
Speaker 2: that's still not an infrequent thing to. HAPPEN a thirty
16:47
Speaker 2: five percent chance is not likely to, happen but it's
16:51
Speaker 2: it's not something where you're, like, oh like that's you,
16:52
Speaker 2: know a tail, event like they could, be you, know
16:55
Speaker 2: potentially declared. Constitutional SO i don't know how this is
16:59
Speaker 2: going to play, out but we'll know probably Late. December,
17:03
Speaker 2: january Early february is kind of the tail end of
17:06
Speaker 2: Where i've heard this may end up being ruled. On
17:09
Speaker 2: but we're looking somewhere in that.
17:11
Speaker 3: Range let's.
17:13
Speaker 2: SEE i think that's enough tariff talk for. Now how
17:16
Speaker 2: The fed can change the k shaped, Economy i'm not
17:19
Speaker 2: sure they. Can THE fed doesn't have the tools to
17:22
Speaker 2: change the case shaped to.
17:23
Speaker 4: Coomy THE fed can influence, demand and it's a pretty
17:26
Speaker 4: blunt instrument monetary. Politics you can't engineer equitable. Outcomes you
17:33
Speaker 4: can't make sure this group does better relative to. Another
17:36
Speaker 4: one of the big criticisms is recently articulated by A
17:40
Speaker 4: treasure secretary bescent we're, percent is that THE fed is
17:45
Speaker 4: experienced mission creep over the past i'll just say ten.
17:48
Speaker 4: Years and he's absolutely right about. That all these other.
17:50
Speaker 4: Objectives he didn't put it this WAY i. Would THE
17:54
Speaker 4: fed simply can't attain and it should focus on keeping
17:57
Speaker 4: inflation low and. Stable so mission has not been been.
18:01
Speaker 2: Helpful and you, know no matter what the situation is
18:06
Speaker 2: with interest, rates they're always, wrong according to, everyone you.
18:14
Speaker 2: KNOW i remember back during the twenty, tens for almost
18:19
Speaker 2: the whole, decade ALL i heard consistently, is, oh interest
18:23
Speaker 2: rates are too. Low you're punishing savers and you, know
18:27
Speaker 2: especially people on fixed incomes that rely on, CDs like
18:31
Speaker 2: this is just. Awful and then for the last you,
18:35
Speaker 2: know three, years ALL i hear, is.
18:37
Speaker 3: Oh interest rates are too.
18:39
Speaker 2: High no one can, borrow no one can get a, mortgage,
18:42
Speaker 2: like it's impossible to do. This and it's, like, guys
18:46
Speaker 2: what's what's the what's the magical interest?
18:48
Speaker 3: Rate that's just? Right you, know like what's what? What
18:52
Speaker 3: what is?
18:52
Speaker 2: It, like what's what's the one where you, say, ah
18:55
Speaker 2: we've gotten?
18:56
Speaker 4: It? Likes but it's it's a theoretical. Concept is it
19:00
Speaker 4: the unicorn? Rate, well our star the neutral? Rate which
19:04
Speaker 4: what the feds.
19:04
Speaker 3: Nor people stop complaining about.
19:07
Speaker 4: It different people complain for different, reasons, right interestrates are
19:10
Speaker 4: always too, long.
19:10
Speaker 2: But you always have these pieces published in the financial
19:13
Speaker 2: publications being like here's why interest rates are hurting these.
19:16
Speaker 2: People and it's, like, guys like there is no interest
19:20
Speaker 2: rate that isn't a positive for some groups and a
19:22
Speaker 2: negative for. Others can we just acknowledge? That and the
19:26
Speaker 2: answer is, no because we always have to be upset about.
19:28
Speaker 3: It let's take a quick.
19:30
Speaker 2: Break when we come, back we got the trivia, answer
19:33
Speaker 2: and we're Doing Wall Street, watch.
19:39
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your. Radio every.
19:43
Speaker 1: Day it's The Financial exchange on The Financial Exchange Radio.
19:47
Speaker 1: Network time now For Wall Street, watch a complete look
19:52
Speaker 1: at what's moving markets so far today right here on
19:56
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange Radio.
19:57
Speaker 5: Network market's trying to rebound after yesterday's tech driven sell.
20:02
Speaker 5: Off Wall street's also reacting to a stronger than EXPECTED
20:06
Speaker 5: Adp private payrolls report posted earlier this. Morning right, now
20:12
Speaker 5: The dow is up a tenth of a percent or
20:14
Speaker 5: fifty four, POINTS smp five, hundred up about a half
20:17
Speaker 5: a percent or thirty four, POINTS nasdac up eight tenths
20:20
Speaker 5: of one percent or one hundred and eighty eight, POINTS
20:23
Speaker 5: rusted two thousands up six tenths of one, PERCENT Dan
20:27
Speaker 5: Your treasure willed up six bases points now at four
20:30
Speaker 5: point one five to three, percent and crude oil flat
20:33
Speaker 5: edging higher training at sixty dollars in fifty eight cents a.
20:37
Speaker 5: Barrel shares and Chip maker off about half a percent
20:41
Speaker 5: after the company beat third quarter earnings and revenue. Forecasts,
20:44
Speaker 5: however sentiment took a slight hit after AMD's adjusted margin
20:48
Speaker 5: guidance for the current quarter came in line with. Expectations
20:52
Speaker 5: sticking with the chip, sector Where Super microcomputer posted quarterly
20:56
Speaker 5: results that missed, estimates sending shares down over eight. Percent,
21:01
Speaker 5: meanwhile McDonald's reported third quarter earnings and revenue that missed. Expectations,
21:05
Speaker 5: however the company says value.
21:07
Speaker 3: Meals and new.
21:07
Speaker 5: Products we're helping revive sales in a challenging environment for
21:11
Speaker 5: fast food. BUSINESS us same store sales increase two point four,
21:15
Speaker 5: percent stronger than analysts. Anticipated McDonald's is now up too.
21:20
Speaker 5: PERCENT a fast casual, Restaurant, cava offered a lower full year,
21:24
Speaker 5: guidance downwardly revising its same store sales outlook in addition
21:28
Speaker 5: to a lower profit margin. Range cava now down one. Percent,
21:33
Speaker 5: Elsewhere pinterest plunging twenty one percent after the social media
21:37
Speaker 5: company reported weaker than expected, earnings and after today's, clothes
21:41
Speaker 5: we'll see more results from App, Lovin', Qualcomm, Armholdings, robinhood
21:46
Speaker 5: and Door. Dash I'm Tucker silva and that Is Wall Street.
21:49
Speaker 5: Watch and in the previous, segment we asked you the trivia,
21:52
Speaker 5: question how much does it cost to Buy boardwalk in?
21:55
Speaker 5: Monopoly that would be four hundred. Dollars tom From Spencer
21:59
Speaker 5: masses are winner today taking home The Financial Exschane SHOW t.
22:02
Speaker 5: Shirt congrats To. Tom we play trivia every day here
22:05
Speaker 5: in The Financial. Exchange see complete contest rules At Financial
22:09
Speaker 5: Exchange show dot.
22:10
Speaker 2: Com what's the rent you receive In boardwalk if you
22:13
Speaker 2: haven't developed to a hotel two, hundred two, thousand two.
22:18
Speaker 2: Hundred what do you THINK i? Haven't what do you
22:20
Speaker 2: think this Is mediterranean? Avenue my, goodness go directly to,
22:25
Speaker 2: Jail do not pass.
22:27
Speaker 4: Go that's all rent controlled now Under Mom. DAMIE i
22:30
Speaker 4: thinks they're gonna have to REISSUE i mean they're gonna
22:33
Speaker 4: have to reissue the Game, MONOPOLY Momdammi, monopoly the fascinating
22:36
Speaker 4: nobody gets ten, dollars.
22:37
Speaker 2: The fascinating thing About so here's the actual interesting thing About.
22:40
Speaker 2: Monopoly if you, do you have either of you ever
22:42
Speaker 2: read about the history of its.
22:44
Speaker 3: Development, no.
22:48
Speaker 2: Let me make sure THAT i quote this, correctly just
22:51
Speaker 2: BECAUSE i.
22:52
Speaker 3: Wanted wasn't it called something else?
22:53
Speaker 4: Originally hang, on.
22:55
Speaker 2: Let me pull from here we. Go this is from
23:00
Speaker 2: The wikipedia, pages because AGAIN i was just looking for it.
23:02
Speaker 2: Quickly the history Of monopoly can be traced back to
23:05
Speaker 2: nineteen oh, three where The american anti Monopolist lizzie McGhee
23:10
Speaker 2: created a game Called The Landlord's games that was what
23:13
Speaker 2: it was originally, called that she hoped would explain the
23:15
Speaker 2: single tax theory Of Henry george is laid out in
23:18
Speaker 2: his Book progress And. Poverty she devised the key features
23:21
Speaker 2: of the. Game it was intended as an educational tool
23:25
Speaker 2: to illustrate the negative aspects of concentrating land in private.
23:30
Speaker 2: Monopolies does it actually do that or it did the exact.
23:35
Speaker 4: Opposite Fun the crazy thing about capitalism, is and others
23:39
Speaker 4: have made this. Observation you can eradicate it like you
23:43
Speaker 4: try to eradicate all the weeds in your, yard but
23:46
Speaker 4: it always springs. Up it's just in our nature to
23:49
Speaker 4: be inquisitive. Competitive it doesn't have to be. Unhealthy you
23:52
Speaker 4: could channel it in positive. Ways, no but so just
23:55
Speaker 4: this that reminded me of that observation because you could
23:58
Speaker 4: try to kill. It you could try to train it
23:59
Speaker 4: out of kids with liberal or left wing inappropriately aggressive
24:03
Speaker 4: left WING i mean, professors even left wing professors generally encourage.
24:07
Speaker 4: Debate it's a myth that they. Don't but you could
24:09
Speaker 4: be in appropriately left. Wing you could try to beat
24:11
Speaker 4: it out of your, students and they always come back
24:13
Speaker 4: to it because it's it's somehow baked into OUR, dna.
24:16
Speaker 2: And it's something where when you look AT i come
24:19
Speaker 2: back to this quite. Often the idea that in terms
24:24
Speaker 2: of what we found generally to produce the best outcomes it.
24:27
Speaker 2: Is oh, yeah it is neither completely unregulated capitalism nor
24:31
Speaker 2: completion state run. Government you are trying to create competitive
24:36
Speaker 2: markets because completely unregulated capitalism leads to you, know the
24:40
Speaker 2: big railroads and everything where it's just you get, monopolistic
24:43
Speaker 2: and you do run into problems there as well because.
24:45
Speaker 3: Of a latch of.
24:45
Speaker 4: Competition try to curtail, that.
24:47
Speaker 2: Sir so it's, okay how do we create competitive markets
24:50
Speaker 2: so that we can, compete you, know and have a
24:53
Speaker 2: playing field where we can do. That BUT i just
24:56
Speaker 2: find it great that monopoly was originally. Developed is, like,
24:59
Speaker 2: hey don't do. This everyone's kind of, like, nah this is.
25:02
Speaker 2: Great LIKE i want to own, boardwalk like of, course
25:04
Speaker 2: let me own. Both LIKE i want boardwalk in park,
25:07
Speaker 2: Place like, yeah you'll trade me for. That you can
25:08
Speaker 2: have the, utilities, fine no.
25:10
Speaker 4: Problem it's like you give kids a cautionary tale about
25:13
Speaker 4: drugs or something and they just use it as an instruction.
25:16
Speaker 4: Manual they take away what not all.
25:18
Speaker 2: Kids but you know WHAT i, Mean, yes let's talk
25:21
Speaker 2: a little bit about, McDonald's which first gotta be completely.
25:24
Speaker 2: Honest woke up earlier this week AND i said this
25:26
Speaker 2: On Monday Show, mark did you realize That uber has
25:30
Speaker 2: twice the revenue that McDonald's.
25:31
Speaker 4: DOES i can't say that it ever would have acred
25:34
Speaker 4: to me to make that. Comparison, no they.
25:36
Speaker 2: Both reported earnings this, week so it's the only reason
25:38
Speaker 2: THAT i noted, it AND i was like, Wow LIKE
25:40
Speaker 2: i would not have thought that to be the.
25:42
Speaker 3: Case McDonald's like.
25:45
Speaker 2: McDonald's like, this like like, oh like they are like Big,
25:50
Speaker 2: burger like Big, beef And uber you kind of think
25:53
Speaker 2: of as like this scrappy upstart just fifty billion dollars
25:56
Speaker 2: in revenue a. Year McDonald's is like twenty six Wild,
26:01
Speaker 2: anyways McDonald's reported earnings this. Morning they were generally, fine
26:05
Speaker 2: which is why the stock is rallying, Today but a
26:10
Speaker 2: few things that are interesting under the hood when you
26:15
Speaker 2: listen to the conference call and you know kind of
26:19
Speaker 2: hear what McDonald's is actually. Saying Jonathan, mays, who AGAIN
26:25
Speaker 2: i didn't know this as a, thing but he is
26:27
Speaker 2: the editor in chief At Restaurant Business, magazine which NOW
26:31
Speaker 2: i WISH i knew was a thing BECAUSE i feel
26:33
Speaker 2: LIKE i should subscribe BECAUSE i find.
26:35
Speaker 3: This stuff really.
26:36
Speaker 2: Interesting this is a tweet from him this morning McDonald's
26:40
Speaker 2: remains cautious about consumer health in THE us site and
26:42
Speaker 2: continued bifurcated market and says that'll continue into twenty. Six
26:47
Speaker 2: traffic among low income customers down double. Digits among higher
26:52
Speaker 2: income consumers it's up double. Digits so even within, McDonald's
26:57
Speaker 2: we're hearing the same thing That marriott's telling, us the
27:00
Speaker 2: same thing That delta is telling, us the same thing
27:03
Speaker 2: That chipotle's telling, us which, is if you are young
27:06
Speaker 2: and low on the income, spectrum spending is dropping like a.
27:10
Speaker 2: Rock if you are older and or wealthier or higher,
27:17
Speaker 2: income you're not really impacted right. Now and this is
27:21
Speaker 2: the story everyone's telling. Us i've yet to find any
27:24
Speaker 2: company out there in the consumer space that it's, like,
27:27
Speaker 2: yeah like we're can seeing, consistent you, know things across all.
27:31
Speaker 2: Demos the banks are telling, us, yeah consumer spending continues
27:35
Speaker 2: to be growing four to six, percent but it definitely
27:39
Speaker 2: is something where those folks and families that are earning
27:43
Speaker 2: more are making up the bulk of that growth and
27:46
Speaker 2: everyone else is just feeling like.
27:48
Speaker 4: Crap and you might be, wondering how does McDonald's know.
27:50
Speaker 4: This they don't ask me WHAT i make WHEN i
27:52
Speaker 4: go in, there and the answer is census, data which
27:54
Speaker 4: you actually can't get right. NOW i just went to
27:56
Speaker 4: the usual site and it's.
27:59
Speaker 3: It's not just census. Data, Okay so what else?
28:01
Speaker 4: Is if it were me somebody asked me to do,
28:03
Speaker 4: THIS i go to your zip, Code i'd get the
28:05
Speaker 4: sense of, Data i'd get the income, breakdown and THEN
28:07
Speaker 4: i would just assume that every dollar spent there is
28:08
Speaker 4: spent by top, earners et, cetera et. Cetera based on the.
28:12
Speaker 4: End what else do they?
28:13
Speaker 2: Use there are companies out there that specialize in trying
28:19
Speaker 2: to match credit card and debit card transactions to specific
28:24
Speaker 2: individuals in order to create models of their spending. Patterns,
28:29
Speaker 2: okay so so my guess is McDonald's probably has one
28:34
Speaker 2: of these on.
28:34
Speaker 4: Return if you use a credit, card they might be
28:37
Speaker 4: accessing and being shared with your credit card company by.
28:40
Speaker 2: YOU i would say it's highly likely that a company
28:43
Speaker 2: IS i thought it was All sensus. Data, NO i
28:45
Speaker 2: mean they probably started with, that but in the last
28:48
Speaker 2: fifteen years or SO i arned. It it's there are
28:50
Speaker 2: companies that basically they aggregate online you, know like traffic
28:55
Speaker 2: data with credit card, data with social media soas and
29:00
Speaker 2: they try to basically.
29:01
Speaker 3: Build a model of who you. Are it's, creepy it's,
29:06
Speaker 3: weird AND i wish it didn't.
29:08
Speaker 2: Exist but these companies are out there that do that
29:11
Speaker 2: stuff as, well AND i would be shocked if the
29:14
Speaker 2: majority Of fortune five hundred consumer companies are not paying
29:18
Speaker 2: one of them for that data as, well just because like,
29:22
Speaker 2: it's it's it's hugely valuable despite its creep factor which is.
29:27
Speaker 3: High so there's. That let's, see let's take a. Break
29:33
Speaker 3: when we come, back let's do a little bit of stack.
29:35
Speaker 1: Roulette find daily interviews and full shows of The Financial
29:39
Speaker 1: exchange on our YouTube. Page subscribe to our page and
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29:45
Speaker 1: Missed this is The Financial Exchange Radio. Network The Financial
29:50
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30:00
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30:03
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30:07
Speaker 1: is The Financial Exchange Radio. Network this year's.
30:12
Speaker 5: Dav FIVE k is sold, out but you can still
30:14
Speaker 5: help our Great american. Heroes the race is This saturday
30:18
Speaker 5: At Castle, island and you can visit dav fivek Dot
30:21
Speaker 5: boston to make a donation of any amount to support our.
30:24
Speaker 5: Troops your gifts help fund free rides to medical appointments
30:28
Speaker 5: for veterans and the nation's first dav leadhousing initiative providing
30:32
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30:35
Speaker 5: fivek Dot boston and make your donation, Today, MARK i
30:41
Speaker 5: got something for stack.
30:42
Speaker 4: Roulette thank, god because mine's.
30:44
Speaker 3: WEAK i want to talk about the stream. Ring this
30:48
Speaker 3: Was this was.
30:50
Speaker 2: UNVEILED i don't know yesterday. Whenever the premise of it
30:56
Speaker 2: is it's a smart ring that you wear on your index.
30:59
Speaker 2: FINGER i don't know why they say you have. To
31:01
Speaker 2: you could put it on any. FINGER i would, imagine,
31:05
Speaker 2: like you don't have to wear it on your index.
31:06
Speaker 2: Finger you could go full like Doctor evil and put
31:08
Speaker 2: it on your pinky if you.
31:09
Speaker 4: Wanted to strong pulse there stronger.
31:11
Speaker 2: Signals don't, know but basically it allows you to like
31:15
Speaker 2: touch the side of it and then you talk into
31:19
Speaker 2: it and it records your thoughts into a notes app
31:23
Speaker 2: on your. Phone, okay why we need THIS i don't really,
31:28
Speaker 2: know Because i'm sure that we don't all just want
31:30
Speaker 2: to be walking around in public like holding our finger
31:33
Speaker 2: talking to our.
31:34
Speaker 4: Finger you.
31:35
Speaker 2: KNOW i MEAN i do this because, WELL i love you,
31:39
Speaker 2: know Mister, friendly like it's you, know he's my. Favorite but,
31:42
Speaker 2: LIKE i don't, KNOW i, mean it's just something Where
31:47
Speaker 2: i'm just not convinced that voice is this next frontier
31:53
Speaker 2: that people want to move. INTO i feel like people
31:55
Speaker 2: have been trying to make voice control happen for a,
31:59
Speaker 2: decade AND i just don't think people want. It quite,
32:03
Speaker 2: honestly where DOES ai enter the picture on?
32:06
Speaker 3: This IT'S ai.
32:07
Speaker 2: Powered, yes it uses large language models to help answer your,
32:12
Speaker 2: questions which can then also go into notes, form so
32:15
Speaker 2: you can ask it, like, hey what ingredients are needed
32:19
Speaker 2: for this? Recipe and then you can, say put those
32:22
Speaker 2: ingredients into a shopping, list, okay as opposed to like
32:27
Speaker 2: any normal person would, Do, oh let me pull open
32:30
Speaker 2: my phone and see what INGREDIENTS i need and then
32:33
Speaker 2: RING i can just copy that and put it into.
32:35
Speaker 4: You, know you need to involve Mister.
32:37
Speaker 2: Friendly, No SO i don't, Know like this is one
32:40
Speaker 2: of those WHERE i don't understand the, Use and quite,
32:44
Speaker 2: HONESTLY i had just given the myriad problems with large
32:50
Speaker 2: language models trying to do stuff like. This you know
32:53
Speaker 2: where they, Say, hey the recipe for this needs you,
32:55
Speaker 2: know three. Rocks well, Like i'm just not.
33:00
Speaker 4: Sure that this resounds like too? Many?
33:02
Speaker 3: Right you never made was more than two? Rocks?
33:05
Speaker 4: Right?
33:05
Speaker 3: Never what do you got?
33:06
Speaker 1: From? No hang?
33:07
Speaker 3: On what do you got?
33:07
Speaker 1: For THE?
33:08
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33:19
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33:26
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34:12
Speaker 3: Com, mark what do you got?
34:14
Speaker 4: For this was a little, dry BUT i think it's
34:16
Speaker 4: worth noting that the yield on the ten year, treasury
34:19
Speaker 4: and you've pointed this out in your market, Updates, chuck
34:21
Speaker 4: throughout the, show yield on the tenyure treasury is climbing again.
34:24
Speaker 4: Today it's said about four point one five or. So
34:31
Speaker 4: it's notable that it's been climbing over the past several,
34:34
Speaker 4: days because that may seem confusing to some. People didn't
34:36
Speaker 4: The fed just cut interest?
34:38
Speaker 3: Rates we saw this last?
34:40
Speaker 4: Year, yeah we, did and you see it if every so,
34:42
Speaker 4: often it's nearly half the time in, fact with The
34:45
Speaker 4: fed will cut shorter term interest rates and longer term
34:47
Speaker 4: interest rates either don't fall or actually. Rise and it's
34:51
Speaker 4: a useful reminder that the forces that drive longer term interest,
34:54
Speaker 4: rates which include expectations of what THE fed will do
34:57
Speaker 4: in the, future based in turn on what it inflation
35:00
Speaker 4: is likely to be and the risk associated with holding
35:03
Speaker 4: a long term. Bond all of those factors drive are in.
35:07
Speaker 4: Play when short term interest rates are are set by
35:10
Speaker 4: investors is distinguished from when long term inistrates are said
35:13
Speaker 4: excuse me as distinguished from short term interest. Rates and
35:16
Speaker 4: the past several days again have been a reminder that
35:18
Speaker 4: THE fed virtually controls the short end of the so
35:21
Speaker 4: called treasury yield, curve but the rates that matter to
35:26
Speaker 4: home buyers and long term borrowers are determined by the,
35:31
Speaker 4: market and the market is having different thoughts right.
35:34
Speaker 2: Now Burger king braces for the demise of the. PENNY
35:38
Speaker 2: i don't know why they singled out Burger king on
35:40
Speaker 2: this piece from The Wall Street, journal but, remember the
35:44
Speaker 2: penny is going the way of The dodo, extinct and
35:49
Speaker 2: so companies that traffic in, pennies namely restaurants and retailers
35:54
Speaker 2: that need them in order to you, know pay exact,
35:58
Speaker 2: change are trying to figure out what to. Do Uh,
36:02
Speaker 2: so there's one Burger king operator who has thirty boxes
36:06
Speaker 2: of pennies like sitting in a safe, somewhere and they
36:10
Speaker 2: think that'll get them through two months once there are
36:12
Speaker 2: no more you, know new pennies being produced The again
36:18
Speaker 2: this here's the thing about. Pennies they generally only go
36:21
Speaker 2: out from restaurants and. Retailers they don't usually come back
36:23
Speaker 2: in like most people don't pay with exact. Change and
36:26
Speaker 2: so this is, why like this Burger king, franchise they
36:29
Speaker 2: have typically an armored car delivery of pennies that comes
36:33
Speaker 2: because it's pennies out and you get dollars get in.
36:36
Speaker 4: Detailed by the, way as an armored car, guard you're
36:39
Speaker 4: maybe being sent a. Message, sorry we're thinking about the
36:42
Speaker 4: guy that has to guard the. Pennies oh, yeah.
36:47
Speaker 3: They must tell you what's in the car for your, trip,
36:50
Speaker 3: right it's a good.
36:50
Speaker 4: Point they may, not though you need to.
36:53
Speaker 3: KNOW i mean if, if if.
36:56
Speaker 2: You're going to a Burger, king you're probably not bringing
36:58
Speaker 2: con that's not, condiment you, know like you you're probably
37:02
Speaker 2: not bringing.
37:02
Speaker 4: Hundreds, yeah good, point good.
37:04
Speaker 3: Point but, yeah is it like does seniority get the
37:07
Speaker 3: big bank.
37:07
Speaker 4: DELIVERIES i would expect, that you would expect, that but,
37:11
Speaker 4: no you want to give it to the young guy
37:12
Speaker 4: who can fend off potential. Assailants, well this gets.
37:15
Speaker 2: It my long standing question about blimp. Pilots are they
37:19
Speaker 2: the guys that washed out of flight? School and it's,
37:21
Speaker 2: like you're gonna get the soft thing that, floats the
37:24
Speaker 2: pillow in the. Sky, yeah you're gonna get the soft
37:26
Speaker 2: thing that. Floats don't bump into, anything but if you,
37:28
Speaker 2: do you'll just bounce right. OFF i know that's not
37:31
Speaker 2: actually how blimps, work but my mind thinks this, way
37:33
Speaker 2: like how do you become.
37:35
Speaker 4: Blim pilot's union is pissed right.
37:36
Speaker 3: Now, well first of, all there's like six of them
37:39
Speaker 3: in the. World you, know like we're not building The
37:42
Speaker 3: hindenburg anymore for obvious. Reasons so like where do you
37:46
Speaker 3: even train to be a blimp?
37:48
Speaker 4: Pilot Good year blimp? School yeah, right you, know like there's.
37:52
Speaker 3: Not many of these puppies floating. Around so in any,
37:54
Speaker 3: case thank.
37:55
Speaker 2: God restaurants and retailers are trying to figure out what
37:58
Speaker 2: to do when they can't get new pennies, anymore and
38:04
Speaker 2: it's kind of, okay like are we just gonna have
38:06
Speaker 2: to give extra change to? People like do we adjust menu?
38:09
Speaker 3: Prices?
38:10
Speaker 2: Oh, yeah it's a brave new world with no penny
38:13
Speaker 2: quick break for the rest of the. Day we'll see
38:15
Speaker 2: tomorrow on The Financial exchange