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Transcript

What the Polls and Prediction Markets Tell Us About the (Near) Future (Midterms) · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  We are getting really close to the midterm elections,
• 0:02
  and we've got a pollapalooza going on out there.
• 0:06
  Tons of polls are out.
• 0:07
  We'll look at the latest and see how they stack up against prediction markets.
• 0:10
  We have Steve Dace from Blaze TV on to talk about,
• 0:13
  uh,
• 0:13
  the on the ground view of what's going on in Iowa,
• 0:16
  one of the key races and one of my biggest positions,
• 0:19
  uh,
• 0:19
  in these,
• 0:19
  uh,
• 0:19
  midterms.
• 0:20
  We'll talk to him about that.
• 0:21
  Uh,
• 0:22
  and,
• 0:22
  uh,
• 0:22
  if we have time,
• 0:23
  I think we'll have time to get to a candidate countdown today as well.
• 0:25
  It's all coming up,
• 0:26
  uh,
• 0:26
  and so much more unpredictable with Stu.
• 0:43
  All right,
• 0:44
  here we go.
• 0:45
  Lots to get to today.
• 0:46
  If you are new to the prediction market world,
• 0:48
  I wanna tell you,
• 0:49
  we have a brand new video up at predictable101.com.
• 0:52
  It is our predictable 101 lesson six.
• 0:55
  we bring you through from the beginning of the process all the way to this one,
• 0:57
  which I think is,
• 0:58
  what is it?
• 0:59
  Limit orders?
• 0:59
  I think it's trade,
• 1:00
  how do you trade a limit order?
• 1:02
  You know,
• 1:02
  you might be like,
• 1:02
  I have no idea how to do a limit order.
• 1:04
  We walk you through every little step,
• 1:05
  how to do it,
• 1:06
  uh,
• 1:06
  why it's valuable to,
• 1:07
  to understand,
• 1:08
  um,
• 1:09
  and,
• 1:09
  you know,
• 1:09
  that's.
• 1:10
  Step 6.
• 1:10
  If you go from the beginning,
• 1:11
  you'll
• 1:12
  understand how to do everything,
• 1:13
  OK?
• 1:14
  Uh,
• 1:14
  it's all up there at predictable 101.com and at youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 1:19
  We have 27 days until the midterm elections.
• 1:22
  Early voting has started in 14 states.
• 1:24
  There's so much going on,
• 1:26
  and we have actually a massively important debate night tonight.
• 1:30
  Tonight we have,
• 1:31
  uh,
• 1:32
  the Ashley Hinson
• 1:33
  Josh Turrick debate.
• 1:35
  That is a
• 1:36
  huge one in Iowa,
• 1:37
  uh,
• 1:37
  as you may know,
• 1:38
  Hinson's been one of my favorites.
• 1:39
  It's been much closer than I would like it to be.
• 1:42
  I didn't really predict all-time high,
• 1:45
  uh,
• 1:45
  diesel prices,
• 1:46
  and you know what,
• 1:46
  the show's called Predictable,
• 1:47
  so I guess I should have.
• 1:48
  Uh,
• 1:49
  but here we are,
• 1:50
  uh,
• 1:50
  this is,
• 1:50
  of course,
• 1:51
  uh,
• 1:51
  you know,
• 1:51
  it's weird because when we started talking about this,
• 1:53
  the war had already started.
• 1:55
  The,
• 1:55
  the,
• 1:55
  the rates came up and they came down.
• 1:57
  And we never hit those levels,
• 1:59
  and then we've inched back up,
• 2:00
  and now we're talking about really,
• 2:01
  really high stuff.
• 2:02
  That's,
• 2:02
  that's part of the reason why
• 2:03
  Iowa is closer
• 2:04
  than I'd like it to be.
• 2:05
  Um,
• 2:06
  but that's,
• 2:06
  uh,
• 2:06
  actually Hinson versus Josh Turk.
• 2:08
  It's 8:00 p.m. Eastern tonight.
• 2:10
  The other one that's big,
• 2:10
  probably not for America,
• 2:11
  but kind of for my prediction market positions,
• 2:14
  and let's be honest,
• 2:15
  this show is really about how
• 2:17
  I'm able to make money or not make money.
• 2:18
  So this is what I care about,
• 2:20
  is the Oregon governor's race.
• 2:22
  Very,
• 2:22
  very close.
• 2:23
  One of the weird states in this particular race.
• 2:25
  Where Democrats
• 2:26
  are having a really positive year as far as the climate goes,
• 2:29
  are in real trouble
• 2:30
  in Oregon right now,
• 2:32
  and Tina Kotteka goes up against Christine Drazen,
• 2:34
  it's about 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
• 2:35
  So,
• 2:36
  uh,
• 2:36
  two things that we,
• 2:37
  we,
• 2:37
  uh,
• 2:38
  did a live chat last night
• 2:39
  on PredictableShow.com.
• 2:41
  Uh,
• 2:41
  this is for both paid and free,
• 2:43
  uh,
• 2:43
  subscribers.
• 2:44
  We did this,
• 2:45
  um,
• 2:45
  about the Maine Senate race.
• 2:47
  Tons to say about that.
• 2:48
  I don't know if we'll get to it today,
• 2:49
  but,
• 2:49
  uh,
• 2:49
  we can go back and check out that chat.
• 2:51
  Really,
• 2:51
  really informative,
• 2:52
  I thought,
• 2:53
  uh,
• 2:53
  and,
• 2:53
  uh,
• 2:53
  a fun time talking with all of you last night.
• 2:55
  Uh,
• 2:56
  let's.
• 2:56
  Look at just some of the polls.
• 2:57
  Let me just go through this.
• 2:58
  Let's just open this up.
• 2:59
  Open the,
• 3:00
  open up the,
• 3:00
  what is it?
• 3:01
  The New York Times poll tracker?
• 3:02
  Is that the one you have,
• 3:02
  Adam?
• 3:03
  Pull this up for the Senate,
• 3:04
  and let's just go through what has happened over the past 3 or 4 days
• 3:07
  when it comes to the polls.
• 3:08
  Now,
• 3:09
  one of the things that's important to understand about the polls.
• 3:12
  Uh,
• 3:12
  public polling is really difficult to do.
• 3:14
  It is not a surgical instrument.
• 3:16
  You'll hear me say this a million times.
• 3:17
  It is,
• 3:18
  it is a blunt instrument.
• 3:19
  It will tell you general
• 3:20
  themes and tones.
• 3:21
  It will not tell you who's winning by 1 point or not.
• 3:24
  That's not what they're not good at that.
• 3:25
  Polls don't do a good job at that.
• 3:27
  You shouldn't depend on them for doing that.
• 3:29
  Another thing is they're very expensive
• 3:31
  and difficult to do.
• 3:32
  Media organizations have budgets.
• 3:34
  Campaigns kind of almost don't.
• 3:36
  They have unlimited money at times,
• 3:37
  so they get a lot of private polling and
• 3:39
  polling behind the scenes that tells a different story.
• 3:42
  You'll see that oftentimes reflected in the prediction markets
• 3:44
  when it disagrees
• 3:46
  with the,
• 3:47
  uh,
• 3:47
  the public polling.
• 3:48
  But let me go back to,
• 3:49
  uh,
• 3:49
  so we,
• 3:50
  we talked about the New York Times polls there at the bottom.
• 3:52
  We'll start from the bottom and go up here.
• 3:53
  How about that?
• 3:54
  Uh,
• 3:54
  New York Times,
• 3:54
  uh,
• 3:55
  Ashley Hinson up by 1 point in the New York Times
• 3:58
  poll over Josh Turrick.
• 4:00
  We're gonna talk to Steve Dace in a couple of minutes
• 4:02
  in depth about both the gubernatorial race and the Senate race
• 4:05
  in Iowa.
• 4:06
  Don't miss that because it's a,
• 4:07
  it's a key one and there's tons of value there no matter which side you're on.
• 4:10
  There is tons of value on both sides of this right now
• 4:13
  if you,
• 4:13
  uh,
• 4:14
  if you want to dig it out.
• 4:15
  Georgia had a poll come out.
• 4:16
  This one's basically around expectations.
• 4:18
  Wedgwood has,
• 4:19
  uh,
• 4:19
  uh,
• 4:20
  uh,
• 4:21
  Jon Ossoff
• 4:21
  at a 10.
• 4:23
  That's kind of where I feel like that race is,
• 4:25
  and I,
• 4:25
  you know,
• 4:26
  it's,
• 4:26
  and I'm disappointing if you happen to be a conservative,
• 4:28
  you're like,
• 4:28
  oh gosh,
• 4:28
  I really want Collins to win there.
• 4:29
  Ossoff looks in a very solid position to the point that
• 4:33
  it's not just polling that's telling you that,
• 4:34
  it's Republicans kind of like pulling their money out
• 4:36
  of states like
• 4:37
  Georgia right now.
• 4:38
  New Mexico,
• 4:39
  no surprise,
• 4:40
  an 18 point lead for the Democrats.
• 4:42
  Maine is an interesting one.
• 4:44
  Maine's People's Resource Center has a poll out from a few days ago
• 4:48
  with Troy Jackson up 3 over Collins.
• 4:50
  I mentioned I watched that debate last night.
• 4:51
  I mean,
• 4:52
  look,
• 4:52
  Jackson's not a good candidate.
• 4:54
  Jackson is,
• 4:55
  you know,
• 4:55
  he's an also-ran.
• 4:56
  He's a kind of a guy that's been around in Maine for a while.
• 4:59
  I don't get the sense that people in Maine like him all that much,
• 5:02
  frankly.
• 5:03
  Um,
• 5:03
  but,
• 5:04
  uh,
• 5:04
  you know,
• 5:05
  he's in a good,
• 5:05
  in a bluish sort of state in a bluish sort of year.
• 5:08
  So he definitely has a chance there.
• 5:10
  Collins
• 5:10
  has limitations.
• 5:12
  Because
• 5:13
  of her age and her,
• 5:14
  you know,
• 5:14
  kind of physical,
• 5:15
  uh,
• 5:15
  limitations when it comes to her,
• 5:17
  you know,
• 5:18
  she doesn't have like a,
• 5:19
  a big booming projected voice.
• 5:21
  She,
• 5:21
  it's,
• 5:21
  she comes off the way Susan Collins comes off.
• 5:23
  She is who she is.
• 5:24
  That being said,
• 5:25
  she knows her issues,
• 5:26
  she's a pro,
• 5:27
  she knows what she's doing.
• 5:28
  I mean,
• 5:29
  the fact that like,
• 5:30
  half the debate was spent saying like,
• 5:31
  well,
• 5:31
  I voted with Joe Biden all the time,
• 5:33
  and I swear I never was in favor of abortion like my Democrat opponent here.
• 5:37
  I mean,
• 5:38
  it was a
• 5:39
  weird night.
• 5:40
  But that being said,
• 5:42
  Um,
• 5:42
  uh,
• 5:43
  Jackson,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:44
  is favored only by 3 points there.
• 5:46
  This is a toss-up race for me.
• 5:48
  I will also say there's a very weird moment that I
• 5:50
  have to tell you about which where Troy Jackson was like,
• 5:52
  you know what,
• 5:53
  uh,
• 5:53
  they go like,
• 5:53
  do you have for,
• 5:54
  uh,
• 5:54
  voter ID?
• 5:55
  And Troy Jackson's like,
• 5:56
  well,
• 5:56
  no,
• 5:56
  of course not.
• 5:57
  I'm a logger.
• 5:58
  You know,
• 5:59
  I'm gonna be out logging all day and then I didn't want to go to the polls.
• 6:01
  I can't bring my ID.
• 6:03
  You can't bring your ID to log?
• 6:05
  Is that a thing?
• 6:06
  Does anyone know?
• 6:07
  Is that a thing?
• 6:08
  Is that a thing that people know that I don't know?
• 6:10
  I'm not from Maine,
• 6:11
  I am from the Northeast.
• 6:12
  Never heard that one before.
• 6:14
  You can't bring your ID with you when you log.
• 6:16
  When you're,
• 6:16
  when you're logging,
• 6:17
  a tiny,
• 6:18
  tiny,
• 6:19
  thin
• 6:20
  plastic
• 6:21
  rectangle in your pocket is impossible.
• 6:23
  And of course,
• 6:24
  you can't even just store it in your car
• 6:26
  or your truck.
• 6:27
  You know,
• 6:27
  the one you're bringing to the logging.
• 6:29
  You can't bring your driver's license while you drive the truck
• 6:33
  to the logging
• 6:34
  and then go to the voters,
• 6:35
  uh,
• 6:35
  you know,
• 6:36
  the voting booth after that.
• 6:37
  So,
• 6:37
  just an absurd,
• 6:38
  absurd debate.
• 6:38
  Anyway,
• 6:39
  uh,
• 6:39
  OK,
• 6:39
  a couple more here.
• 6:40
  Michigan,
• 6:40
  El Sayed +4,
• 6:42
  according to Mitchell.
• 6:43
  Again,
• 6:44
  that race has been
• 6:45
  pretty razor thin.
• 6:46
  Uh,
• 6:46
  the polling has been all over the board,
• 6:47
  slightly maybe for El Sayed in most polls.
• 6:50
  Maine,
• 6:50
  again,
• 6:50
  another one,
• 6:51
  Jackson + 4.
• 6:52
  You see,
• 6:52
  it's basically been in that area,
• 6:54
  uh,
• 6:54
  though,
• 6:54
  at times,
• 6:55
  um,
• 6:55
  I believe,
• 6:56
  um,
• 6:56
  the New York Times poll had.
• 6:58
  Uh,
• 6:59
  Collins up by 1,
• 7:00
  I think it was.
• 7:01
  Illinois,
• 7:01
  no surprise here,
• 7:02
  large lead for the Democrats.
• 7:04
  Stratton up by 13.
• 7:05
  Uh,
• 7:06
  this one is,
• 7:07
  has been a race where I've found real value in the prediction markets.
• 7:09
  Um,
• 7:10
  I just,
• 7:11
  I am not optimistic for Sununu to,
• 7:13
  to win.
• 7:14
  I think he'll keep it closer than he probably should.
• 7:16
  He's a very,
• 7:16
  uh,
• 7:17
  well-known figure there.
• 7:18
  Um,
• 7:18
  and Chris Pappas isn't a,
• 7:20
  a terrible candidate for the Democrats.
• 7:21
  It's not like they,
• 7:22
  You know,
• 7:23
  they picked an Al Sayed there,
• 7:24
  but he's not dynamic.
• 7:26
  And I think Sununu has an outside chance.
• 7:28
  In another year,
• 7:29
  I think he could have won,
• 7:30
  but,
• 7:30
  uh,
• 7:31
  this one,
• 7:31
  I,
• 7:31
  I do feel like,
• 7:32
  Uh,
• 7:33
  Democrats are favored there.
• 7:33
  I have a position
• 7:34
  on Pappas there to win.
• 7:37
  Kansas,
• 7:37
  uh,
• 7:38
  this is probably the most
• 7:39
  unbelievable race of the entire cycle.
• 7:41
  Kansas has not had,
• 7:42
  uh,
• 7:43
  it's been 92 years since a Democrat won a Senate race in Kansas,
• 7:46
  and really poll after poll has this race kind of looking like this.
• 7:49
  Hamilton with a very slight lead,
• 7:51
  in this case,
• 7:52
  3 points,
• 7:53
  according to YouGov.
• 7:54
  YouGov has a new Texas poll out as well.
• 7:56
  Tallarico up by 6.
• 7:58
  That's sort of the high end of where Tallarico has typically been in that race.
• 8:02
  But again,
• 8:03
  you get the sense of like,
• 8:04
  the high end is Tallarico + 6,
• 8:06
  these other races,
• 8:06
  it's like 3.
• 8:08
  And you,
• 8:08
  you do get the sense that Paxson is in trouble,
• 8:10
  uh,
• 8:10
  in,
• 8:10
  in Texas.
• 8:11
  A lot of people ask me about that all the time.
• 8:13
  Um,
• 8:13
  Osborne is up by 1,
• 8:15
  according to YouGov.
• 8:16
  You'll see the YouGov polls all sort of,
• 8:18
  I would say,
• 8:19
  leaning a little bit left,
• 8:20
  a little bit of a House effect here towards the Democratic candidates.
• 8:23
  Although in Michigan,
• 8:24
  only 1 point lead for El Sayed over Rodgers according to YouGov.
• 8:28
  Uh,
• 8:28
  a couple more you goovs here.
• 8:29
  New Hampshire has Pappas up by 8.
• 8:31
  It's about the norm.
• 8:33
  Moody up by 5 is a little low for the lead for Ashley Moody.
• 8:36
  She's been up by more in a lot of polls
• 8:38
  in that particular race.
• 8:39
  This is a very weird thing.
• 8:41
  It's Alaska polls,
• 8:43
  uh,
• 8:43
  I,
• 8:43
  I,
• 8:43
  you know,
• 8:44
  uh,
• 8:45
  let's not,
• 8:46
  uh,
• 8:47
  jump ahead of ourselves here,
• 8:48
  but Ash,
• 8:48
  uh,
• 8:49
  uh,
• 8:49
  Alaska has a,
• 8:50
  uh,
• 8:50
  Peltola up by 2
• 8:52
  in the ranked choice round one.
• 8:54
  And I,
• 8:55
  I,
• 8:55
  you,
• 8:56
  you deserve a Medal of Honor,
• 8:57
  uh,
• 8:57
  honestly,
• 8:58
  uh.
• 8:58
  To,
• 8:58
  to get through some of these polls in Alaska because of the ranked choice thing,
• 9:01
  but
• 9:01
  Peltola up by only 2.
• 9:03
  That's a bad result for Peltola.
• 9:04
  She's been higher than that in a lot of these polls.
• 9:06
  Uh,
• 9:06
  Mason-Dixon has Moody up by 10 in Florida,
• 9:09
  kind of a little bit more where I expect that one to land.
• 9:12
  I don't really believe the polls showing Angie Nixon all that close.
• 9:15
  Iowa from Suffolk has Turic up by 4.
• 9:18
  Uh,
• 9:18
  points in that race.
• 9:20
  Uh,
• 9:20
  Kansas,
• 9:21
  Hamilton up by 5.
• 9:22
  Another poll.
• 9:23
  Now this is a Democratic,
• 9:24
  this is a Hamilton poll,
• 9:25
  so I don't know how much,
• 9:25
  how crazy you want to be with that one,
• 9:27
  but he's up by 5 according to his own campaign.
• 9:29
  And Michigan has a Qantas poll.
• 9:32
  Qantas
• 9:32
  typically leading maybe a little bit more favorable to Republicans occasionally,
• 9:36
  slight House effect there.
• 9:38
  El Sayed up by 1.
• 9:39
  All right,
• 9:39
  I'll go to,
• 9:40
  uh,
• 9:40
  the Governor Chorus.
• 9:41
  Just get,
• 9:41
  let's get,
• 9:42
  um,
• 9:42
  give me the most recent,
• 9:43
  uh,
• 9:43
  polls there because we're gonna run out of time here.
• 9:45
  Uh,
• 9:46
  I've been,
• 9:46
  there's a lot.
• 9:47
  This is how much penny polls are out
• 9:48
  right now.
• 9:49
  It's really incredible.
• 9:50
  Let's go to the gubernatorial side.
• 9:51
  Vermont,
• 9:52
  this is a race to watch.
• 9:53
  Uh,
• 9:53
  Phil Scott's up by 3,
• 9:55
  and I don't know what to believe about this,
• 9:57
  but I,
• 9:57
  both Ayotte in New Hampshire and Scott,
• 10:00
  both Republicans and sort of.
• 10:01
  Democratic states,
• 10:03
  uh,
• 10:03
  the Republican
• 10:04
  in a fringy year could be vulnerable,
• 10:06
  and you can get good prices on the Democrat in those states if you want to be risky,
• 10:10
  if you want a lot of upside.
• 10:11
  Josh Shapiro gonna win in a landslide,
• 10:13
  looks like in Pennsylvania.
• 10:14
  Hochel,
• 10:15
  uh,
• 10:15
  1112 points,
• 10:16
  I think is about where she'll probably land.
• 10:18
  Rob Sand,
• 10:19
  we're gonna talk about this race here in just a minute.
• 10:21
  12-point lead in this poll from Suffolk.
• 10:23
  That's a huge lead.
• 10:24
  I don't know if I believe that.
• 10:26
  You can get Zach Lane very,
• 10:27
  very,
• 10:27
  um,
• 10:28
  cheaply in prediction markets.
• 10:29
  We'll talk to Steve,
• 10:30
  see what he thinks about that.
• 10:32
  Uh,
• 10:32
  I like Byron Donalds a lot.
• 10:33
  You can get him in the 70s in these markets,
• 10:35
  and I think he's gonna win there.
• 10:37
  I think Florida is,
• 10:38
  is a nice little cushion.
• 10:40
  Might be one of those places that has a wall for Republicans in a race like this.
• 10:43
  All right,
• 10:44
  uh,
• 10:44
  that's probably enough.
• 10:44
  Another Florida poll has Donald's up too.
• 10:46
  Give me the predictable Senate board if you would.
• 10:48
  The Senate board is available to you for free.
• 10:50
  I would love you to post these.
• 10:51
  Share them.
• 10:52
  There's,
• 10:52
  if you see in the upper right-hand corner,
• 10:53
  there's a share board button.
• 10:54
  You can share what your board looks like.
• 10:56
  This is one,
• 10:57
  that's actually a little old,
• 10:58
  but we need to get this updated.
• 11:00
  I think I would move,
• 11:01
  uh,
• 11:02
  let's start here.
• 11:02
  We'll move Texas to a toss-up.
• 11:04
  I think at this point is fair.
• 11:05
  Kansas probably needs to be in the toss-up as well.
• 11:08
  Um,
• 11:09
  and I would move,
• 11:10
  uh,
• 11:12
  let's see,
• 11:12
  I would move,
• 11:13
  uh,
• 11:15
  we moved,
• 11:15
  it looks like we moved
• 11:17
  Michigan and Minnesota,
• 11:18
  uh,
• 11:19
  Michigan,
• 11:19
  I think I'd,
• 11:21
  we're bouncing back and forth here.
• 11:23
  Uh,
• 11:23
  sorry,
• 11:23
  the,
• 11:23
  the board I think we had set earlier and,
• 11:25
  um,
• 11:26
  and hadn't reset.
• 11:27
  OK,
• 11:27
  let me just look at this,
• 11:28
  uh,
• 11:29
  right now as we stand.
• 11:30
  That's all right,
• 11:30
  just keep it right there.
• 11:31
  Um,
• 11:32
  OK,
• 11:33
  Iowa,
• 11:33
  I think is still lean right.
• 11:34
  Maine,
• 11:34
  I think I'd put to the toss-up category here,
• 11:37
  Adam.
• 11:38
  Um,
• 11:38
  and Minnesota,
• 11:39
  Michigan,
• 11:40
  I still put Michigan as a toss-up.
• 11:42
  If I'm being honest about it,
• 11:43
  I still think that's a toss-up race.
• 11:45
  Um,
• 11:45
  I think I probably have to
• 11:49
  keep Nebra put Nebraska in the lean Republican right now.
• 11:52
  The other one I think is not getting a lot of attention is the South Carolina race.
• 11:55
  I don't know what's gonna happen there,
• 11:57
  um,
• 11:57
  because I just don't know what to get from Darlene Graham.
• 12:00
  I'm a little nervous about that one
• 12:02
  right now against Annie Andrews.
• 12:04
  That race is closer,
• 12:05
  too close for comfort.
• 12:06
  But,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:07
  that's what I would keep,
• 12:07
  uh,
• 12:08
  we'll keep it likely for now,
• 12:09
  and that's,
• 12:09
  that's probably where I wanna keep this.
• 12:11
  So give me a reveal of where I put this board.
• 12:13
  Look at that.
• 12:14
  Democrats 49,
• 12:15
  Republicans 47.
• 12:16
  They only have to pick off one of these races.
• 12:18
  There are 4 toss-ups.
• 12:20
  There are 2 lean Republicans they can go after.
• 12:23
  Uh,
• 12:23
  and that's of course assuming they lead,
• 12:25
  they,
• 12:25
  uh,
• 12:26
  do win those lean Democratic
• 12:27
  votes,
• 12:28
  which,
• 12:28
  alas,
• 12:28
  to be fair,
• 12:29
  Minnesota,
• 12:30
  Alaska,
• 12:30
  and Ohio are very close.
• 12:32
  So,
• 12:32
  that's where I'm standing on the,
• 12:33
  uh,
• 12:33
  Senate board.
• 12:34
  Again,
• 12:34
  you can go to predictableShow.com.
• 12:35
  This is a free resource.
• 12:36
  You'll see it at the top.
• 12:37
  There's a midterms tab,
• 12:39
  drop down.
• 12:39
  It'll show you the Senate board,
• 12:40
  click on that.
• 12:41
  It's totally free.
• 12:42
  Go on there,
• 12:42
  drag the states however you want,
• 12:44
  and then share them on social media.
• 12:45
  Share them to the predictable chat.
• 12:47
  I wanna see where you are,
• 12:48
  honestly,
• 12:48
  on,
• 12:49
  on the Senate right now cause it's.
• 12:51
  It's a wild one.
• 12:52
  OK,
• 12:52
  I wanna get to Steve Dace.
• 12:53
  Dace is coming up here in a minute.
• 12:54
  He's gonna give you everything on Iowa.
• 12:55
  We're gonna get everything on,
• 12:56
  on,
• 12:56
  on what he's hearing from around the country as well.
• 12:59
  That comes up next.
• 13:17
  I want to bring in Steve Dace,
• 13:18
  uh,
• 13:18
  to the program.
• 13:19
  He's the host of the Steve Dace Show on Blaze TV,
• 13:22
  author of The Fourth Reich confronting COVID fascism with a new Nuremberg trial.
• 13:26
  So this never happens again.
• 13:28
  He knows,
• 13:29
  uh,
• 13:30
  the insides of politics,
• 13:31
  inside and out,
• 13:32
  honestly,
• 13:32
  uh,
• 13:33
  uh,
• 13:33
  not only in Iowa but all over the country.
• 13:35
  And I wanted to bring him in to kind of get an idea of what we're looking at here
• 13:39
  over the next month or so.
• 13:41
  Steve,
• 13:41
  welcome to the program.
• 13:42
  Good to see you,
• 13:43
  brother.
• 13:43
  How are you?
• 13:43
  Uh,
• 13:44
  good,
• 13:44
  man.
• 13:44
  I appreciate it.
• 13:45
  Um,
• 13:45
  I,
• 13:45
  I wanted to bring you in because I wanted to talk to you,
• 13:47
  you know,
• 13:47
  this is a show about prediction markets and
• 13:49
  how they relate to elections,
• 13:50
  and,
• 13:51
  um,
• 13:51
  you know,
• 13:52
  I,
• 13:52
  I saw some comments from you,
• 13:54
  uh,
• 13:54
  uh,
• 13:54
  a couple of weeks ago that I really wanted to,
• 13:57
  to get you on to talk about.
• 13:58
  It was,
• 13:59
  uh,
• 13:59
  not only,
• 13:59
  uh,
• 14:00
  on,
• 14:00
  I saw it on your social media,
• 14:01
  but it was
• 14:01
  everywhere.
• 14:02
  I mean,
• 14:02
  you know,
• 14:02
  Washington Post wrote about it in this story.
• 14:04
  In Iowa,
• 14:05
  Republicans feel
• 14:06
  the heat and try to motivate a frustrated base.
• 14:09
  They talk about,
• 14:10
  uh,
• 14:10
  how your write up on this was how you were
• 14:12
  talking about the Iran war as a political albatross.
• 14:15
  This,
• 14:16
  this kind of
• 14:17
  came from,
• 14:18
  uh,
• 14:18
  a conversation you had with,
• 14:19
  was is it Republican pollsters in Iowa.
• 14:21
  Can you tell us about this?
• 14:23
  Yeah,
• 14:23
  so there was a,
• 14:24
  there was a meeting held 3 weeks ago,
• 14:26
  uh,
• 14:26
  with the Republican delegation in the Iowa State House,
• 14:30
  and they met with their internal pollers.
• 14:33
  So,
• 14:33
  uh,
• 14:33
  you know,
• 14:34
  I,
• 14:34
  I used to pour over,
• 14:36
  uh,
• 14:37
  having worked in politics for many years,
• 14:38
  I used to pour over a lot of media polls and public polls.
• 14:41
  I don't anymore.
• 14:42
  I mean,
• 14:43
  I,
• 14:43
  I'm even,
• 14:44
  I'm kind of loosely aware.
• 14:46
  Of,
• 14:46
  of what they say.
• 14:47
  And if I really want to know what they say,
• 14:48
  I just look at prediction markets because they're always reacting to what they say.
• 14:52
  All right?
• 14:52
  So,
• 14:53
  um,
• 14:54
  so I,
• 14:54
  I,
• 14:55
  I put this out there though,
• 14:56
  because this was our own pollsters.
• 14:58
  And,
• 14:59
  uh,
• 14:59
  I know the pollster who they who the party hired to do this briefing.
• 15:03
  He's a friend of mine,
• 15:04
  uh,
• 15:04
  and he worked for the Trump 2024 campaign.
• 15:07
  I mean,
• 15:07
  if I ran for office,
• 15:08
  he'd be on a shortlist of pollsters I'd hire.
• 15:10
  So,
• 15:11
  that's why I took it seriously.
• 15:13
  And,
• 15:13
  and then the other reason I put it out there is because there were 5 weeks out and,
• 15:17
  and there's a chance now to,
• 15:18
  to,
• 15:19
  to,
• 15:19
  we don't have to just sit here and take an L.
• 15:21
  We're behind,
• 15:22
  right?
• 15:22
  And,
• 15:23
  you know,
• 15:23
  we're past the first quarter of the game,
• 15:25
  but,
• 15:25
  you know,
• 15:26
  there,
• 15:26
  there's still a lot of game to be played here.
• 15:28
  This is still,
• 15:28
  I guess,
• 15:29
  I,
• 15:29
  maybe I wouldn't say winnable.
• 15:30
  How about survivable?
• 15:31
  I think it's survivable.
• 15:32
  And so I put this out there because I was seeing a lot of,
• 15:34
  frankly,
• 15:35
  lame ads.
• 15:36
  You know,
• 15:36
  we've got,
• 15:37
  I,
• 15:37
  I saw one Senate race in,
• 15:38
  in the country,
• 15:39
  Stu,
• 15:39
  where
• 15:40
  the Democrat is accusing the Republican of helping to harbor,
• 15:44
  uh,
• 15:44
  Epstein rapists.
• 15:46
  And then the Republican is coming back with,
• 15:48
  well,
• 15:48
  how many votes did you miss when you were in the state legislature?
• 15:50
  I mean,
• 15:51
  that,
• 15:51
  that's not gonna cut it.
• 15:52
  OK.
• 15:52
  That's,
• 15:53
  you're,
• 15:53
  you're literally being accused of,
• 15:55
  of holding a satanic agent,
• 15:57
  yeah,
• 15:57
  you know,
• 15:57
  uh,
• 15:58
  from justice,
• 15:59
  and your,
• 16:00
  your comeback is,
• 16:00
  well,
• 16:00
  I took attendance at class and you weren't there enough.
• 16:02
  That's not gonna cut it.
• 16:04
  If,
• 16:04
  if it had been a week or two before the election,
• 16:06
  I probably don't say anything because I don't want to be a
• 16:08
  part of a demoralization op because my name's not Tucker Carlson.
• 16:11
  So,
• 16:12
  since it was 5 weeks,
• 16:13
  uh,
• 16:13
  5 weeks out,
• 16:14
  sorry,
• 16:14
  did I say that out loud?
• 16:15
  Uh,
• 16:15
  since it was,
• 16:16
  since it was 5 weeks out,
• 16:17
  um,
• 16:18
  I chose to go ahead and put it out there hoping that it would get the reaction it did.
• 16:21
  Now,
• 16:21
  you mentioned the media.
• 16:22
  Every media out,
• 16:23
  I mean,
• 16:24
  almost every media outlet in America has called me.
• 16:27
  I mean,
• 16:27
  I got another note,
• 16:28
  I got another call from Der Spiegel,
• 16:29
  the 3rd time they've tried to reach me yesterday.
• 16:31
  Do you know how many of these I've responded to?
• 16:34
  0.
• 16:35
  Cause I didn't,
• 16:36
  I didn't put this out there.
• 16:37
  I'm not Erik Erickson trying to get a,
• 16:38
  you know,
• 16:38
  a thing on this week with the,
• 16:39
  you know,
• 16:40
  Sunday morning show
• 16:41
  to remind everybody how morally superior I supposedly am to everybody else.
• 16:44
  I did it because I want us to win.
• 16:46
  Right?
• 16:46
  And so I'm not gonna give aid and comfort to our enemies.
• 16:49
  Uh,
• 16:49
  I did it to wake our side up and that we
• 16:51
  frankly have to get a lot more aggressive and frankly negative
• 16:55
  with our messaging.
• 16:55
  And the messaging the president used in Nebraska at his rally on Tuesday
• 16:59
  is almost verbatim what I've been advocating on my show.
• 17:02
  So,
• 17:03
  I prefer that messaging to
• 17:04
  how many classes did you miss?
• 17:06
  Yeah,
• 17:07
  well,
• 17:07
  I mean,
• 17:07
  yeah,
• 17:07
  because it's just not.
• 17:08
  I mean,
• 17:08
  I don't know if maybe that was effective 20 or 30 years ago.
• 17:11
  I,
• 17:11
  I,
• 17:11
  I don't know even then if it was,
• 17:13
  but.
• 17:13
  I never,
• 17:14
  I'm never won over by that particular argument,
• 17:16
  um.
• 17:17
  You talk about this,
• 17:19
  uh,
• 17:19
  and just reading from your post,
• 17:21
  uh,
• 17:21
  you,
• 17:22
  you say that,
• 17:22
  uh,
• 17:23
  you talked to the pollsters,
• 17:24
  they said if you are in a +15 district,
• 17:28
  meaning Republicans favored by 15,
• 17:30
  Trump won by 15 in 2024,
• 17:32
  you are within the margin of error.
• 17:34
  And if you are in a 10 district,
• 17:36
  you're underwater.
• 17:38
  That,
• 17:38
  I mean,
• 17:39
  Steve,
• 17:39
  I mean,
• 17:39
  we've gone through the history many times on the show.
• 17:41
  I know you have too.
• 17:41
  That,
• 17:42
  that,
• 17:42
  those are,
• 17:42
  those are catastrophic levels.
• 17:44
  No doubt,
• 17:45
  which is again why I chose to speak out so that we can do something about it.
• 17:48
  I mean,
• 17:49
  uh,
• 17:49
  the situation we're seeing in the Midwest,
• 17:52
  uh,
• 17:53
  and your,
• 17:53
  you know,
• 17:53
  your home state of Texas is part of this,
• 17:56
  um,
• 17:56
  uh,
• 17:56
  but especially the,
• 17:58
  you know,
• 17:58
  why do we have to do events in Kansas,
• 17:59
  you know,
• 18:00
  why is Ohio,
• 18:01
  that's been a state that's,
• 18:03
  that's turned the most red in the Trump years.
• 18:05
  Why is it such a,
• 18:07
  A battle there right now.
• 18:08
  And,
• 18:09
  and granted,
• 18:10
  you know,
• 18:10
  Vivek Ramaswamy is not the,
• 18:12
  the most,
• 18:12
  the greatest on the stump,
• 18:13
  and whoever's telling him to,
• 18:14
  you know,
• 18:15
  swing baseball bats and try to pick up his kid live on stage,
• 18:17
  stop it.
• 18:18
  OK.
• 18:19
  What about tennis?
• 18:19
  Are you OK with Vivek tennis?
• 18:21
  Is that OK?
• 18:21
  Uh,
• 18:22
  maybe,
• 18:23
  although that's just kind of seems,
• 18:24
  uh,
• 18:25
  you know,
• 18:26
  maybe plays into a stereotype we don't want,
• 18:28
  but I'll move on.
• 18:29
  Uh,
• 18:30
  but the reason why in these,
• 18:31
  in these Corn Belt states,
• 18:32
  uh,
• 18:33
  like,
• 18:33
  like mine in Iowa where we are struggling.
• 18:36
  is because these guys,
• 18:37
  we used to call this when I was growing up in Michigan,
• 18:39
  Dutch door to action,
• 18:40
  screwed on the way in and then screwed again on the way out.
• 18:42
  So,
• 18:42
  on the way in,
• 18:43
  they knew what they were getting with Trump on the tariff stuff.
• 18:46
  And,
• 18:46
  and
• 18:47
  even though that was going to cause them an economic hit because
• 18:49
  their exports were going to get tariffed right back in retaliation.
• 18:52
  They love the president.
• 18:54
  They understand culturally what he's trying to do.
• 18:56
  He was upfront about it.
• 18:57
  They believe he wants to.
• 18:58
  He's trying to,
• 18:58
  you know,
• 18:59
  uh,
• 19:00
  essentially reset the great reset.
• 19:01
  And so,
• 19:02
  they were willing to put up with that.
• 19:04
  But another stupid war is exactly what they
• 19:06
  were promised they were never going to get.
• 19:08
  And
• 19:09
  this,
• 19:09
  this war in some places has become almost a read my lips,
• 19:12
  no,
• 19:12
  no new taxes level of disappointment.
• 19:15
  Um,
• 19:15
  and because here's the thing,
• 19:17
  in these Corn Belt states now on the front end.
• 19:19
  Your,
• 19:19
  your,
• 19:19
  your thank you for holding on during the tariffs and remaining loyal
• 19:23
  is you're gonna pay now $6 to $7 a gallon for,
• 19:25
  for your diesel fuel.
• 19:26
  That's your reward.
• 19:27
  And,
• 19:28
  and so when you have a state like Iowa,
• 19:29
  Stu,
• 19:30
  where we have 30 counties that voted for Obama twice and then
• 19:32
  turned right around and voted for Trump 3 times in a row.
• 19:35
  Right?
• 19:35
  You can have mass swings in some of these legislative districts like what I,
• 19:39
  I,
• 19:39
  what,
• 19:40
  what I just articulated there
• 19:41
  from our data.
• 19:42
  And so,
• 19:43
  what do we need?
• 19:44
  Well,
• 19:44
  we need the president out on the stump.
• 19:46
  You know,
• 19:46
  I,
• 19:46
  I,
• 19:46
  when I put this out there with my suggestions 3 weeks ago,
• 19:49
  I mean,
• 19:49
  I even,
• 19:49
  I even had Obama speechwriters laughing at me.
• 19:52
  You bet.
• 19:52
  Put Trump out there.
• 19:53
  I'm like,
• 19:53
  you're damn right I want to put him out there.
• 19:55
  He kicked you guys' ass last election.
• 19:56
  He's the best campaigner we got.
• 19:58
  Yeah,
• 19:59
  I,
• 19:59
  I,
• 19:59
  you,
• 19:59
  yeah,
• 19:59
  absolutely,
• 20:00
  I want him out there.
• 20:01
  We need to get Trump out there.
• 20:02
  He's getting out there,
• 20:03
  and we need to get really aggressive and aggressively negative with our messaging.
• 20:06
  We need to,
• 20:07
  we need to recreate what Democrats did in 2022.
• 20:10
  And remember when Biden did that triumph of the will slurring speech in front of the,
• 20:14
  the,
• 20:15
  the red,
• 20:15
  uh,
• 20:15
  drake.
• 20:16
  Do you remember that?
• 20:16
  We all laughed and said,
• 20:17
  well,
• 20:17
  now they're out of issues.
• 20:18
  And we were right,
• 20:19
  but they had one issue left,
• 20:20
  which is our base is demoralized,
• 20:22
  and they need to remember that Stu and Steve are Nazis.
• 20:24
  I need to remind them of that,
• 20:25
  right?
• 20:26
  And that worked.
• 20:27
  We got to election night,
• 20:28
  right?
• 20:28
  And,
• 20:28
  and I thought Glenn was gonna fire me.
• 20:31
  I thought Jason Whitlock and Michael Malice are gonna get in a fistfight.
• 20:34
  All right.
• 20:34
  I mean,
• 20:35
  I,
• 20:35
  I was about ready to just literally commit
• 20:37
  the Joker eyeball trick on myself.
• 20:39
  We were all convinced it was going to be a red wave,
• 20:41
  and instead it was just kind of this ugly draw,
• 20:43
  right?
• 20:44
  Because Democrats made the environment negative enough.
• 20:47
  They drove down Normie turnout,
• 20:48
  and they made it.
• 20:49
  Just a pure base on base election and they survived it.
• 20:51
  That's what we need to do.
• 20:53
  Um,
• 20:54
  gosh,
• 20:55
  and it's,
• 20:55
  it's a,
• 20:56
  it's a terrifying time to look at all this,
• 20:57
  Steve.
• 20:58
  I,
• 20:58
  I,
• 20:58
  I wanna,
• 20:59
  can we start a little bit going into
• 21:01
  Iowa itself?
• 21:02
  You're there.
• 21:03
  I know you were,
• 21:03
  uh,
• 21:04
  you know,
• 21:04
  very involved in everything
• 21:06
  that goes on in Iowa,
• 21:06
  including the primary process all the way through.
• 21:08
  You know,
• 21:08
  every,
• 21:09
  literally everybody in the state,
• 21:10
  you know everything about the state,
• 21:11
  um.
• 21:14
  Looking at this,
• 21:14
  and I,
• 21:14
  I looked at this months and months ago and thought,
• 21:16
  you know,
• 21:17
  it just,
• 21:17
  it just doesn't feel,
• 21:18
  it felt,
• 21:19
  felt like Iowa had turned the corner from what we saw in 2008,
• 21:22
  right?
• 21:23
  I mean,
• 21:23
  Barack Obama won the state in 2008,
• 21:25
  which was,
• 21:26
  uh,
• 21:26
  you know,
• 21:27
  a big thing.
• 21:28
  We saw back in 2024.
• 21:30
  You know,
• 21:30
  that,
• 21:30
  you know,
• 21:31
  I,
• 21:31
  speaking of prediction,
• 21:32
  markets did very well after that one poll that came out,
• 21:35
  the Seltzer poll in,
• 21:36
  in Iowa showed Kamala Harris up,
• 21:38
  and I was like,
• 21:38
  there's the,
• 21:39
  this is not true.
• 21:40
  It's not happening.
• 21:42
  That the markets dropped into the 70s inexplicably after that poll.
• 21:45
  And,
• 21:45
  you know,
• 21:45
  a lot of people were able to clean up on that.
• 21:47
  And I,
• 21:48
  I have to admit going into this,
• 21:50
  I couldn't really come up with a series of events that I thought
• 21:53
  you'd look at these types of races
• 21:55
  that are not only competitive,
• 21:57
  very competitive in the Senate.
• 21:59
  But I mean,
• 22:00
  it's according to some polling,
• 22:01
  not even that competitive when it comes to the gubernatorial race.
• 22:05
  Can you kind of give us a picture of what it looks like in Iowa?
• 22:08
  So,
• 22:09
  one,
• 22:09
  I mean,
• 22:10
  and you're a sports guy,
• 22:11
  so you'll get my analogy here.
• 22:12
  The hardest thing,
• 22:13
  the,
• 22:13
  the harder than winning a championship
• 22:16
  is doing it again.
• 22:17
  All right?
• 22:17
  And so,
• 22:18
  you know,
• 22:19
  some of us worked for 10 years to turn Iowa as red as it currently is.
• 22:23
  And,
• 22:23
  and right now,
• 22:24
  we have the most amount of registered Republicans in the state of all time,
• 22:28
  over 700,000.
• 22:29
  We have a quarter of a million voter registration advantage.
• 22:33
  Uh,
• 22:33
  and so what ends up happening though,
• 22:35
  when you have,
• 22:35
  and,
• 22:35
  and,
• 22:36
  and the,
• 22:36
  the governor we have that's retiring,
• 22:38
  Kim Reynolds,
• 22:38
  has been the best governor maybe the state's ever had.
• 22:40
  And so when you have all of that,
• 22:42
  there's a lot of our boxes we've checked that.
• 22:44
  A lot of the kind of stuff that a lot of our people nationally
• 22:47
  that love that Trump has put in executive orders,
• 22:49
  but they're ticked,
• 22:50
  that the GOP Congress hasn't codified into law.
• 22:52
  We codified it like all into law.
• 22:54
  Like it's all law here,
• 22:55
  you know,
• 22:55
  it's like.
• 22:56
  I mean,
• 22:56
  Kim is kind of DeSantis,
• 22:57
  you know,
• 22:58
  and with the,
• 22:58
  you know,
• 22:59
  the cheerleader version of Ron DeSantis,
• 23:00
  basically.
• 23:02
  So what that happens when,
• 23:03
  when that happens though,
• 23:04
  when a lot of the cultural stuff that needs to get done gets done,
• 23:07
  then some of the economic things come in where you're not as unified,
• 23:10
  right?
• 23:10
  And you run into situations like,
• 23:12
  do we need a carbon capture pipeline or do we need your family farm,
• 23:15
  right?
• 23:15
  That's a very divisive issue in Iowa.
• 23:17
  Do we need more data centers or do we need,
• 23:19
  you know,
• 23:20
  uh,
• 23:20
  do we need your farm?
• 23:21
  That's very divisive in these rural areas as well.
• 23:24
  And so,
• 23:25
  now we're,
• 23:26
  we're into some of these more parochial issues like our governor's race,
• 23:28
  for example.
• 23:29
  Now,
• 23:29
  I,
• 23:30
  I would caution people,
• 23:31
  I,
• 23:32
  I can't bet political markets in Iowa.
• 23:34
  I'd be hammering Zach Lane if I could.
• 23:35
  All right?
• 23:36
  The day before the primary,
• 23:37
  Zach Lane was at 18% on,
• 23:39
  on Calhi,
• 23:39
  and then he turned around
• 23:41
  and won the race,
• 23:41
  OK?
• 23:42
  So would I predict Zach to win if the race were today?
• 23:45
  No,
• 23:45
  but the race isn't today.
• 23:46
  So,
• 23:47
  you know,
• 23:47
  is he,
• 23:47
  do I,
• 23:48
  do I think there's more than,
• 23:49
  I think it today,
• 23:49
  it's,
• 23:50
  uh,
• 23:50
  it was before the debate last night.
• 23:52
  I think it was 17% or something was the number.
• 23:54
  Yeah,
• 23:54
  I think it's way higher than that,
• 23:55
  that he's gonna win.
• 23:56
  That's,
• 23:57
  that's shockingly low.
• 23:57
  I mean,
• 23:58
  the polls do have him behind,
• 23:59
  again,
• 23:59
  for whatever you take from that.
• 24:01
  We all know private polling sometimes tells different stories,
• 24:03
  but like a 17,
• 24:04
  18% is,
• 24:05
  is,
• 24:05
  is shocking in,
• 24:06
  in,
• 24:06
  in Iowa where we've seen these surprises before.
• 24:09
  Right.
• 24:10
  And so like,
• 24:10
  so we have a parochial issue here where we have a real maha gubernatorial candidate.
• 24:14
  I was at a private event.
• 24:16
  RFK Junior came to our state for an invite-only
• 24:18
  private event about a month ago for Zach.
• 24:20
  But I think it's the only campaign that he's doing this for in this entire cycle.
• 24:24
  All right?
• 24:24
  And so we have a,
• 24:25
  a real true maha guy,
• 24:27
  uh,
• 24:27
  in,
• 24:28
  in Zach.
• 24:29
  Well,
• 24:29
  you know,
• 24:30
  uh,
• 24:30
  he also is going to be,
• 24:31
  might be the first Republican governor candidate in recent
• 24:34
  memory not to get a Farm Bureau endorsement.
• 24:36
  Because one of the things he's pointing out is that the water quality in Iowa sucks.
• 24:39
  We have one of the highest cancer rates in the country,
• 24:41
  and I think we need to look at maybe if some of our farming practices are causing this,
• 24:45
  right?
• 24:45
  So,
• 24:46
  if,
• 24:46
  if we were desperate to win and sick of Democrats kicking us in the shins,
• 24:52
  that might be a thing where we all kind of come together and say,
• 24:54
  brother,
• 24:54
  we're gonna settle this when this is over,
• 24:56
  because we're not,
• 24:56
  we're not gonna let you screw us like that.
• 24:58
  But,
• 24:58
  Since we checked all those boxes,
• 25:00
  Stu,
• 25:00
  and everybody's got a Super Bowl ring now,
• 25:02
  you know,
• 25:03
  now everybody's kind of like,
• 25:03
  you know,
• 25:04
  I've got,
• 25:04
  I get a podcast too.
• 25:05
  You know,
• 25:05
  I get to be a free agent too,
• 25:07
  you know,
• 25:07
  I mean,
• 25:08
  it's that kind of thing right now.
• 25:09
  And so,
• 25:10
  that's why his debate performance was so key
• 25:13
  because it was such a domination of,
• 25:15
  of his Democratic opponent,
• 25:16
  uh,
• 25:16
  Rob Sand,
• 25:17
  that that's the kind of thing that.
• 25:19
  And he did a great job of pointing out how out
• 25:20
  of the mainstream Rob is on virtually every issue in Iowa.
• 25:23
  That's the kind of thing that helps the rest of us to say,
• 25:26
  OK,
• 25:26
  we've got some family business to settle here,
• 25:28
  but
• 25:28
  we can't let that bleeping guy win.
• 25:30
  Right now,
• 25:30
  he's got to still,
• 25:31
  you got to do this for another 3 weeks,
• 25:33
  but that was a good start last night.
• 25:34
  Yeah,
• 25:35
  I saw some of the clips.
• 25:35
  I did not watch the entire thing,
• 25:37
  but I saw some of the clips from it.
• 25:38
  It looked like he performed really well.
• 25:40
  Um,
• 25:40
  and we,
• 25:41
  as we know,
• 25:41
  look,
• 25:42
  sometimes there's debates that really turn the tide.
• 25:43
  I give you,
• 25:44
  of course,
• 25:44
  Biden,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:45
  in 2024.
• 25:46
  Um,
• 25:47
  but,
• 25:47
  uh,
• 25:47
  you know,
• 25:48
  sometimes those things don't connect with people.
• 25:49
  Do,
• 25:50
  do people,
• 25:50
  are,
• 25:50
  are people into this race?
• 25:51
  Are they watching it?
• 25:52
  Are they obsessed with this race,
• 25:54
  or is it one of those things that's kind of just existing in the background?
• 25:57
  The first thing that Zach needed to do was to make sure everybody stays on board.
• 26:02
  All right.
• 26:02
  You don't want to be in a situation in the last couple of
• 26:04
  weeks where your Senate candidate's leaking
• 26:06
  stuff to Politico with her consultants and
• 26:08
  we're going our own way,
• 26:09
  Fleetwood Mac.
• 26:10
  You don't want any of that.
• 26:11
  That,
• 26:11
  that,
• 26:11
  whenever that starts,
• 26:12
  everybody's gonna lose,
• 26:13
  right?
• 26:14
  I mean,
• 26:14
  Ben Franklin's,
• 26:15
  we either hang together or hang separately is always true.
• 26:17
  That's always true.
• 26:18
  It wasn't just true at that moment,
• 26:19
  it's forever true,
• 26:20
  right?
• 26:20
  And so,
• 26:21
  what Zach did last night.
• 26:23
  Uh,
• 26:23
  even if only the people that watched were the political class,
• 26:26
  because I can tell you,
• 26:27
  they're all,
• 26:27
  they've all been emailing and texting me in the last 12 hours.
• 26:30
  If that's all that we got out of this,
• 26:32
  and,
• 26:32
  and nothing went viral,
• 26:33
  of course,
• 26:33
  stuff is already going viral.
• 26:34
  You mentioned you've seen the clips,
• 26:36
  but if nothing went viral for normie Republicans or normie voters to see,
• 26:40
  all we needed to do was remind everybody,
• 26:42
  we're all on the same team here,
• 26:43
  so quit your bitching,
• 26:44
  basically,
• 26:45
  OK?
• 26:45
  So that's,
• 26:46
  that's kind of the first step here.
• 26:47
  Now,
• 26:48
  again,
• 26:48
  that's why this has got to be,
• 26:49
  got to be done for another few weeks.
• 26:51
  The president,
• 26:52
  I'm told,
• 26:52
  has,
• 26:53
  has promised to come here at least once.
• 26:55
  We're trying to get him here to come here twice,
• 26:57
  uh,
• 26:57
  because he is,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:58
  no one turns out that rural base and reminds them
• 27:01
  of what's at stake,
• 27:02
  uh,
• 27:03
  you know,
• 27:03
  when Democrats win better than the president does.
• 27:05
  And so,
• 27:06
  that would be a big boost as well.
• 27:07
  And the vice president might even be more popular here in Iowa
• 27:10
  than the president.
• 27:11
  You have the same political team
• 27:13
  that oversees the vice president is running Zach's campaign.
• 27:16
  So,
• 27:16
  you know,
• 27:16
  the vice president's already been here once recently.
• 27:18
  Maybe get him back a couple more times too.
• 27:21
  OK,
• 27:21
  um,
• 27:21
  I want to talk to you about the Senate race as well.
• 27:23
  Could you,
• 27:23
  uh,
• 27:23
  can you hang out for a quick break?
• 27:25
  OK,
• 27:25
  um,
• 27:26
  we're gonna come back,
• 27:26
  talk about the,
• 27:27
  uh,
• 27:27
  the Senate race in Iowa and maybe a few other races around the country with Steve Day.
• 27:31
  Uh,
• 27:31
  we're back in a second.
• 27:44
  We're back with Steve Day,
• 27:45
  Steve Day show,
• 27:46
  Blaze TV.
• 27:47
  Uh,
• 27:48
  Steve,
• 27:48
  the,
• 27:49
  the Senate race is very competitive in Iowa as well,
• 27:52
  which is again,
• 27:53
  kind of a shock.
• 27:54
  Uh,
• 27:54
  Ashley Hinson,
• 27:55
  Josh Turrick going at it,
• 27:56
  um.
• 27:58
  There's,
• 27:58
  I think,
• 27:58
  a debate tonight,
• 27:59
  right,
• 27:59
  on that one.
• 27:59
  Is,
• 27:59
  is that,
• 28:00
  is that tonight?
• 28:00
  Yeah,
• 28:00
  OK,
• 28:01
  um,
• 28:02
  that's a really key one for people to watch if they care about control of the Senate.
• 28:06
  Uh,
• 28:07
  can you give me a picture of what this race is like?
• 28:09
  What we see in prediction markets,
• 28:10
  what we see in some of the polling
• 28:12
  is that this race is maybe,
• 28:14
  is just razor thin,
• 28:15
  like really,
• 28:16
  really close.
• 28:17
  Maybe she's a little bit ahead of the position,
• 28:19
  uh,
• 28:20
  of Zach Lane.
• 28:21
  What,
• 28:21
  what's your view on the ground?
• 28:23
  So I think Ashley's candidate profile ideologically is very similar to Joni Ernst,
• 28:28
  which means she would be more,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:29
  to the middle of where the Republican base in Iowa is,
• 28:32
  but she's a way better candidate than Joni Ernst.
• 28:34
  Uh,
• 28:35
  she's way more engaged with her base.
• 28:37
  You know,
• 28:37
  the last few years with Joni Ernst,
• 28:38
  she had a motorcycle ride in a mailbox,
• 28:40
  you know,
• 28:41
  and that was the joke we had with Tom Harkin for many years.
• 28:43
  Is he representing Iowa or is his mailbox in Indianola representing Iowa,
• 28:46
  right?
• 28:47
  You just never saw him.
• 28:48
  So Joni's here once a year for,
• 28:49
  uh,
• 28:49
  you know,
• 28:50
  like a,
• 28:50
  a motorcycle ride,
• 28:51
  and that's about it.
• 28:52
  I mean,
• 28:53
  Ashley is very engaged with her base.
• 28:55
  She's all over the state.
• 28:56
  Uh,
• 28:57
  she makes herself way more accessible accessible and personable.
• 29:00
  So,
• 29:01
  that's why I think our base is,
• 29:02
  is more excited about her,
• 29:04
  uh,
• 29:05
  despite her not
• 29:06
  she's not necessarily the most,
• 29:07
  uh,
• 29:07
  the best candidate we have,
• 29:08
  but I think they're more,
• 29:09
  they're more willing and and enthused for her than
• 29:11
  they would have been if Joanie were running again.
• 29:13
  Because she is,
• 29:14
  uh,
• 29:14
  she's frankly,
• 29:15
  a better public servant at this stage of her career.
• 29:17
  Now,
• 29:17
  the Democrat she's running against in,
• 29:19
  in,
• 29:19
  in Josh Turk,
• 29:20
  I,
• 29:20
  I thought Josh Turk was running the best ads by
• 29:22
  a Democrat I've seen in our state statewide in the,
• 29:25
  in the 20 years,
• 29:25
  uh,
• 29:26
  that I've been involved in politics here in Iowa nationally.
• 29:29
  Uh,
• 29:29
  he really did a great job,
• 29:31
  uh,
• 29:31
  without coming across as cringy,
• 29:33
  um,
• 29:33
  a bit of playing off of his disability,
• 29:35
  uh,
• 29:36
  and how he's,
• 29:36
  uh,
• 29:36
  overcome it
• 29:37
  and the origin of it.
• 29:39
  And,
• 29:39
  and,
• 29:39
  and,
• 29:40
  you know,
• 29:40
  that's how he was able to beat in the primary.
• 29:42
  Uh,
• 29:43
  a way more of what,
• 29:44
  uh,
• 29:45
  a lot of audience might call Liptard,
• 29:46
  uh,
• 29:47
  was the kind of candidate that he was running against.
• 29:48
  I mean,
• 29:48
  this,
• 29:49
  this is a guy who's making sacrifices to Joe B and is willing
• 29:53
  to trans his kids live on television if that's what it takes,
• 29:55
  right?
• 29:56
  And so it was kind of surprising that Josh beat him
• 29:59
  because you,
• 30:00
  you,
• 30:00
  you saw Democrats do something they aren't,
• 30:01
  they,
• 30:02
  they don't typically do.
• 30:03
  Like they didn't do this in Michigan.
• 30:04
  Like the,
• 30:04
  the,
• 30:05
  the,
• 30:05
  the reason we can,
• 30:06
  we have a shot to survive this,
• 30:07
  Stu,
• 30:08
  is because of who the candidates are that Democrats have mostly nominated,
• 30:11
  right?
• 30:11
  Um,
• 30:12
  they've,
• 30:12
  they've bypassed more of their normal people to nominate a bunch of crazies.
• 30:15
  Well,
• 30:15
  in our state,
• 30:16
  they did the opposite,
• 30:17
  right?
• 30:17
  So Josh ran very enthusiastic ads.
• 30:20
  But,
• 30:20
  but Ashley's done a good job of luring him into kind of a trap.
• 30:23
  Uh,
• 30:23
  she hit him right away on the training stuff,
• 30:25
  uh,
• 30:25
  the day that the primary began.
• 30:27
  I think that probably surprised Josh because
• 30:30
  she's not necessarily Miss Culture warrior.
• 30:32
  And that kind of prompted him now to go really negative against her.
• 30:36
  Um,
• 30:36
  and that's the kind of thing though,
• 30:38
  that sure,
• 30:38
  you're gonna dock some points from your opponent.
• 30:40
  But
• 30:40
  when you're kind of running on,
• 30:42
  I'm an inspirational guy,
• 30:43
  I have a,
• 30:43
  you know,
• 30:44
  I've,
• 30:44
  I've,
• 30:44
  I've won the,
• 30:45
  uh,
• 30:45
  wheelchair Olympic gold medal basketball team twice in a row.
• 30:48
  I'm just in,
• 30:49
  uh,
• 30:49
  and,
• 30:49
  you know,
• 30:49
  an everyman from Iowa,
• 30:51
  and you're out there running some of the nastiest attack ads,
• 30:54
  that has a tendency,
• 30:55
  you know,
• 30:55
  it's like dropping a nuclear bomb on your neighbor.
• 30:57
  The fallout when the wind changes.
• 30:58
  just ended up in your yard as well.
• 31:00
  And so now what you see Ashley doing is kind
• 31:01
  of outflank him in the other direction now by saying,
• 31:04
  I'm the uniter,
• 31:05
  I work across the aisle,
• 31:06
  kind of boxing him in a little bit.
• 31:08
  So,
• 31:08
  I think tactically,
• 31:09
  she has run a pretty good campaign,
• 31:10
  at least in,
• 31:11
  in terms of the air war here.
• 31:13
  And it,
• 31:13
  and it does seem to be very,
• 31:15
  very close.
• 31:15
  You know,
• 31:16
  I,
• 31:16
  I,
• 31:16
  you know,
• 31:17
  the,
• 31:17
  the,
• 31:17
  the trans issue is an interesting one here because,
• 31:20
  um,
• 31:20
  you know,
• 31:20
  and,
• 31:20
  and we're seeing this a lot in Texas.
• 31:22
  I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Texas race because
• 31:24
  You know,
• 31:24
  the,
• 31:24
  the,
• 31:25
  the Tallarico,
• 31:26
  uh,
• 31:26
  Paxton situation,
• 31:27
  what,
• 31:27
  what Paxton's attempting to do here and all the
• 31:30
  super PAC money that's flowing into the state right now
• 31:32
  is trying to say basically Tallarico's weird,
• 31:34
  kind of like,
• 31:35
  you know,
• 31:35
  we saw that approach a little bit,
• 31:37
  um,
• 31:37
  you know,
• 31:38
  by,
• 31:38
  by Tim Walls.
• 31:39
  Back in 2024,
• 31:41
  but to say,
• 31:41
  hey,
• 31:41
  Tim,
• 31:42
  you know,
• 31:42
  Tallarico's weird.
• 31:43
  He says,
• 31:43
  says all these weird things.
• 31:45
  People obviously,
• 31:46
  you know,
• 31:46
  it's an 80/20,
• 31:47
  you know,
• 31:48
  90-10 type issue,
• 31:49
  right?
• 31:49
  People don't believe girls can
• 31:51
  change into boys with a series of magical words.
• 31:54
  most people don't believe that.
• 31:55
  But I do wonder
• 31:56
  if that is going to be an effective tactic right now
• 31:59
  when you're talking about the other things you mentioned with,
• 32:01
  with the tariffs and the war and,
• 32:02
  and all these other things that are hitting people,
• 32:04
  gas prices.
• 32:05
  Can that stuff,
• 32:07
  uh,
• 32:07
  work in this environment?
• 32:10
  Uh,
• 32:10
  I think it would be working a lot better,
• 32:12
  um,
• 32:13
  if,
• 32:14
  uh,
• 32:14
  Paxton had made a couple of different life choices
• 32:17
  and had run a better campaign in the last couple of months.
• 32:21
  Um,
• 32:21
  in fact,
• 32:22
  I don't,
• 32:23
  I mean,
• 32:23
  you're in Texas,
• 32:24
  but you tell me.
• 32:26
  I never even see this guy.
• 32:28
  I don't ever hear him.
• 32:29
  I hear
• 32:30
  mess I hear,
• 32:31
  I hear Auntie Tallarico messaging.
• 32:34
  But when the best,
• 32:35
  the best commercial I've seen you affirmatively put out
• 32:38
  is
• 32:39
  the wife,
• 32:39
  is the wife you left.
• 32:41
  And,
• 32:41
  and she's essentially creating,
• 32:43
  as David Axelrod would call it,
• 32:44
  a permission structure
• 32:46
  to say,
• 32:46
  hey,
• 32:46
  uh,
• 32:46
  she didn't mention his name either,
• 32:48
  but I'm willing,
• 32:48
  I'm,
• 32:49
  I'm gonna vote Republican up and down the ticket.
• 32:51
  I,
• 32:51
  I just think,
• 32:52
  I,
• 32:52
  I,
• 32:53
  I,
• 32:53
  unless,
• 32:53
  Ken is one of the best,
• 32:55
  private life aside.
• 32:56
  If,
• 32:57
  if you were to take the last 5 years,
• 32:59
  take Trump,
• 33:00
  take Trump off the list.
• 33:01
  Over the last 5 years,
• 33:03
  you know,
• 33:04
  name me 5 Republicans.
• 33:05
  That have done the most damage to the deep state,
• 33:08
  to the Democratic Party,
• 33:09
  uh,
• 33:10
  that have the most noteworthy wins on behalf of our value system.
• 33:13
  DeSantis is going to be on that list,
• 33:14
  for example.
• 33:15
  I,
• 33:15
  Ken Paxton's gonna be on that list,
• 33:17
  which is why our,
• 33:18
  our base enthusiastically want him to run for Senate.
• 33:20
  But,
• 33:21
  but here's the thing,
• 33:22
  uh,
• 33:22
  you know,
• 33:22
  uh,
• 33:24
  Margaret Thatcher once famously said to George HW Bush
• 33:26
  on the eve of the first Iraq War,
• 33:28
  this is no time to get wobbly,
• 33:30
  George.
• 33:30
  All right?
• 33:31
  Well,
• 33:31
  frankly,
• 33:31
  Ken,
• 33:32
  you did the,
• 33:32
  you did the deeds,
• 33:33
  all right?
• 33:34
  You,
• 33:34
  you did,
• 33:34
  you did,
• 33:35
  frankly,
• 33:35
  some shameful things,
• 33:36
  but this is no time to get shameful,
• 33:37
  George.
• 33:38
  All right?
• 33:39
  Uh,
• 33:39
  he needs to be out there more.
• 33:40
  He needs to campaign more,
• 33:42
  um,
• 33:43
  uh,
• 33:43
  because here's the thing,
• 33:44
  uh,
• 33:44
  he's just getting now,
• 33:45
  he's,
• 33:46
  he still is just kind of getting negatives.
• 33:48
  For the,
• 33:49
  the stuff he's done in his private life and not enough credit
• 33:52
  for all the fantastic things he's done as a public servant,
• 33:56
  right?
• 33:57
  Because that's part of your character and your integrity as well.
• 33:59
  I mean,
• 33:59
  what would,
• 34:00
  what would cause your ex-wife that you left behind,
• 34:03
  that you abandoned after decades of marriage to turn right around and say,
• 34:06
  but we got to vote for this guy anyway,
• 34:08
  because even she has to acknowledge for all of your faults,
• 34:10
  and she's seen him better than anybody else,
• 34:11
  and it's hurt her more than anyone else,
• 34:13
  but she has to acknowledge what you've done as a public servant,
• 34:16
  as an attorney.
• 34:16
  General in Texas is vastly superior than what Tallarico
• 34:19
  could fever dream to do as a US senator,
• 34:22
  right?
• 34:22
  He needs to be out there more.
• 34:24
  Uh,
• 34:24
  he needs to be campaigning more,
• 34:26
  out there more,
• 34:27
  and,
• 34:27
  and,
• 34:27
  and,
• 34:28
  and
• 34:28
  not be ashamed whatsoever of the things that he's
• 34:31
  done on behalf of the state of Texas as,
• 34:33
  as the AG.
• 34:34
  And if he does that,
• 34:34
  I think he'll win.
• 34:35
  I think it'll be ugly,
• 34:37
  but I think he'll win.
• 34:37
  Yeah,
• 34:38
  I keep coming back to this idea that it's just,
• 34:39
  it's like
• 34:40
  a lot of people want to say,
• 34:41
  well,
• 34:41
  I don't like Ken Paxton,
• 34:42
  and there's definitely a section of Republicans,
• 34:44
  certainly independents who feel that way.
• 34:46
  Uh,
• 34:47
  but I just keep coming back to the idea of like you walk into that voting booth,
• 34:49
  and it's like,
• 34:50
  are you really,
• 34:51
  you're really gonna pull the lever for Tallarico?
• 34:54
  The question is,
• 34:54
  do they just stay home?
• 34:56
  Um,
• 34:56
  but
• 34:57
  when it comes down to that moment,
• 34:58
  right,
• 34:58
  this is the moment where you actually have to consider,
• 35:00
  hey,
• 35:00
  Tallarico is going to be,
• 35:01
  uh,
• 35:02
  you know,
• 35:02
  representing me.
• 35:04
  That,
• 35:04
  that's a moment that I feel like Texans will reject,
• 35:07
  but,
• 35:07
  uh,
• 35:08
  honestly,
• 35:08
  like,
• 35:08
  I,
• 35:09
  I,
• 35:10
  I don't have a lot of optimism about that race right now.
• 35:12
  I think that to me
• 35:14
  when nerds like you and me get together after this election is over,
• 35:17
  um,
• 35:18
  in the past,
• 35:19
  you could look at polls like remember whenever we tried to unskew the polls in 2012,
• 35:23
  remember this,
• 35:23
  right?
• 35:24
  And it turned out they were exactly right because a lot of people don't understand.
• 35:28
  The polls are not just looking for results,
• 35:30
  but they're measuring voter intensity,
• 35:31
  right?
• 35:32
  And the more enthusiastic you are about a cycle in your candidate,
• 35:34
  traditionally,
• 35:35
  the more likely you are to respond.
• 35:37
  And so it turns out that,
• 35:38
  you know,
• 35:39
  the,
• 35:39
  the,
• 35:39
  the plus 5,
• 35:40
  + 6 models that we saw in 2012
• 35:43
  turned out to be accurate.
• 35:44
  And in fact,
• 35:44
  about 4.5 million fewer white people voted for Romney than they did McCain
• 35:48
  in that race.
• 35:49
  He won independences and lost.
• 35:50
  He's the first Republican,
• 35:51
  the only that's ever done that.
• 35:52
  He won independences and lost a presidential election.
• 35:55
  And so,
• 35:56
  what's transpired since though,
• 35:58
  is because our base is less suburban.
• 36:00
  And more rural.
• 36:02
  Well,
• 36:02
  rurals are,
• 36:03
  are less likely to respond to polls anyway,
• 36:06
  but especially if you're a rural voting for Trump.
• 36:09
  You don't trust any of the media,
• 36:10
  you're not talking to any of them.
• 36:12
  So on top of the fact
• 36:14
  that,
• 36:14
  you know,
• 36:15
  as we are transitioning,
• 36:16
  it's still the best way to poll is to talk to a real person,
• 36:18
  but it's harder and harder to do that.
• 36:20
  And so now people are like,
• 36:21
  I was never called by a pollster in my life,
• 36:23
  but I'm getting 75 texts from pollsters every single day,
• 36:26
  right?
• 36:27
  Methodologies are kind of off too,
• 36:29
  trying to figure this out.
• 36:30
  And I think what,
• 36:31
  what,
• 36:31
  what we're gonna learn now,
• 36:32
  the president back on the stump and,
• 36:34
  and going hard negative to inspire and fire up
• 36:36
  his base about how much everybody hates the Democrats,
• 36:38
  I think we're gonna find out how much we can truly trust sample,
• 36:42
  uh,
• 36:42
  you know,
• 36:43
  um,
• 36:44
  uh,
• 36:44
  oversampled,
• 36:45
  uh,
• 36:46
  samples,
• 36:46
  oversampled samples now moving forward.
• 36:49
  Because what you've seen in the last,
• 36:50
  in the Trump era,
• 36:51
  in all of these Midwestern states.
• 36:53
  Um,
• 36:54
  even down to Texas,
• 36:55
  is he's been under,
• 36:56
  his base has been,
• 36:57
  and,
• 36:57
  and Republicans have been under-polled in every one of the cycles
• 37:00
  in the,
• 37:00
  in the Trump,
• 37:00
  uh,
• 37:00
  era,
• 37:01
  uh,
• 37:01
  in that part of the country where
• 37:03
  his rural base really,
• 37:04
  really turns out for him.
• 37:06
  And so it,
• 37:07
  it,
• 37:07
  it is now,
• 37:08
  are,
• 37:08
  is that gonna happen again here,
• 37:10
  or is the polling picking up that that base is demoralized?
• 37:13
  And so they're not gonna show up on election day,
• 37:15
  right?
• 37:15
  To me,
• 37:16
  that's,
• 37:16
  I think,
• 37:17
  gonna be a nerd technocrat question we're gonna answer
• 37:19
  when the results come in in 4 weeks.
• 37:21
  Yeah,
• 37:21
  it's gonna be interesting.
• 37:22
  Uh,
• 37:22
  last one for you here,
• 37:23
  Steve.
• 37:23
  I got a couple more minutes,
• 37:25
  um.
• 37:27
  If you're looking around the country,
• 37:29
  number one,
• 37:30
  what,
• 37:30
  what do you think about control of the Senate?
• 37:31
  What's your feeling on that right now?
• 37:33
  Uh,
• 37:33
  and what,
• 37:34
  what,
• 37:35
  what race are you looking at to maybe be
• 37:37
  the most important?
• 37:38
  Ohio,
• 37:39
  is it Kansas?
• 37:39
  Is it Iowa,
• 37:40
  Michigan,
• 37:41
  Maine?
• 37:42
  What are you looking at
• 37:43
  there?
• 37:44
  Well,
• 37:44
  I think let's start with the second question first,
• 37:46
  if you don't mind.
• 37:47
  Outside of my own home state governor's race,
• 37:48
  because of everything at stake and everything we built in Iowa,
• 37:50
  and it's where I live,
• 37:52
  if I could,
• 37:52
  if the Lord said I could singularly determine one election
• 37:56
  outcome in this cycle outside of my governor's race,
• 37:58
  it'd be the Senate race
• 37:59
  in Michigan.
• 38:01
  Uh,
• 38:01
  that to me is,
• 38:02
  pardon the pun,
• 38:03
  camel's nose under the tent.
• 38:05
  Uh,
• 38:05
  if you want to know how,
• 38:07
  how does England end up where it is?
• 38:09
  How does France end up where it is?
• 38:11
  You know,
• 38:11
  it starts with people like,
• 38:12
  well,
• 38:13
  what's happened to Dearborn?
• 38:14
  I was just there about a week and a half ago,
• 38:15
  Stu,
• 38:15
  for
• 38:16
  TPUSA at,
• 38:17
  at,
• 38:17
  at their pastors summit speaking there.
• 38:19
  I mean,
• 38:19
  there's ISIS flags in,
• 38:20
  in nearby Dearborn.
• 38:22
  OK.
• 38:22
  And that's right out of where El Sayed comes from.
• 38:25
  So this is where it starts.
• 38:26
  They,
• 38:27
  they,
• 38:27
  they get a,
• 38:27
  a critical mass within a community,
• 38:30
  and it becomes like a no go zone,
• 38:31
  like what you saw in London.
• 38:33
  Next thing you know,
• 38:33
  they're getting people elected to parliament.
• 38:35
  Next thing you know,
• 38:36
  you know,
• 38:37
  John Cleese has got to lawyer up because of what he said about Islam on Twitter,
• 38:40
  right?
• 38:41
  This is where,
• 38:42
  this is where it starts.
• 38:43
  And it's got a,
• 38:44
  Mike Rogers is not a great candidate,
• 38:46
  um,
• 38:46
  but he's got a real shot because of who the Democrats nominated,
• 38:49
  um.
• 38:50
  And Democratic polling in Michigan has not really been that good this entire cycle,
• 38:54
  even before the Iran war and everything else.
• 38:57
  There,
• 38:57
  there's clearly an audience in my former home state of Michigan that,
• 39:00
  that is
• 39:01
  entertaining the idea of moving on.
• 39:03
  Uh,
• 39:03
  let's just say from what Democrats have done to the state.
• 39:06
  And then,
• 39:06
  uh,
• 39:06
  I mean,
• 39:07
  to me,
• 39:07
  the House was always going to be tough.
• 39:08
  I think it's only what,
• 39:09
  23 times in 91 years,
• 39:11
  the party that,
• 39:12
  uh,
• 39:12
  won the presidency,
• 39:13
  got,
• 39:14
  you know,
• 39:14
  grew in House seats in the next midterm.
• 39:16
  The Senate to me is the battle,
• 39:18
  um,
• 39:18
  because that's where confirmations take place and,
• 39:20
  and literally,
• 39:21
  this republic is hanging by a thread because we
• 39:22
  have 2 80-year-old Supreme Court justices doing the hanging.
• 39:25
  Uh,
• 39:26
  so we've,
• 39:27
  we've got to make sure we can replace them.
• 39:28
  I think it's 50/50,
• 39:29
  55,
• 39:30
  45 right now,
• 39:31
  that,
• 39:31
  that we're gonna win the Senate.
• 39:33
  Um,
• 39:33
  that's where I would,
• 39:34
  uh,
• 39:34
  and I,
• 39:35
  and I would be shocked if Democrats did not get even
• 39:37
  like a 5 or 6-seat majority at least in the House.
• 39:40
  Uh,
• 39:40
  I lied.
• 39:41
  I have one more quick one for you,
• 39:42
  Steve.
• 39:42
  If you,
• 39:42
  if you don't have anything,
• 39:43
  let me know.
• 39:43
  But I know you look at prediction markets.
• 39:45
  Um,
• 39:46
  uh,
• 39:46
  is there a race that you look at and you're like,
• 39:48
  this is just outside of your own home state?
• 39:50
  Is there one that you look at and you're like,
• 39:51
  this is just mispriced.
• 39:52
  This is out of,
• 39:52
  this is,
• 39:53
  this is wrong right now.
• 39:55
  People aren't looking at this race the right way.
• 40:01
  Uh,
• 40:01
  I,
• 40:02
  I,
• 40:02
  I,
• 40:02
  I definitely think,
• 40:04
  uh,
• 40:05
  the Minnesota race
• 40:07
  is another race with Michelle Tafoya.
• 40:08
  In fact,
• 40:09
  I'm more,
• 40:10
  I'm more optimistic on Minnesota and New Hampshire
• 40:13
  than I am
• 40:14
  North Carolina and Georgia.
• 40:16
  Um,
• 40:16
  and so,
• 40:17
  two states that the president won,
• 40:19
  2 states that he did not.
• 40:21
  There,
• 40:21
  there's just,
• 40:22
  and,
• 40:22
  you know,
• 40:22
  John Sununu or Chris Sununu,
• 40:24
  I can't remember which Sununu it is.
• 40:25
  Not my brand of Republican by any means,
• 40:27
  but it's a potent brand in that state.
• 40:30
  And so that brand gives you a chance to transcend the environment.
• 40:33
  And Michelle Tafoya is running a heck of a race.
• 40:35
  I was a little concerned,
• 40:36
  you know,
• 40:37
  because she comes out of mainstream media
• 40:40
  that she wasn't gonna have
• 40:41
  the,
• 40:42
  uh,
• 40:42
  the,
• 40:43
  the,
• 40:43
  the blood,
• 40:43
  the taste for the blood sport of this.
• 40:45
  But no,
• 40:46
  I mean,
• 40:46
  she has,
• 40:47
  she has gone for some shin kicks for sure.
• 40:49
  And so that,
• 40:50
  I think is a race where
• 40:52
  I,
• 40:52
  I would not be stunned at all if that's the 50th or 51st US Senate race
• 40:57
  is Michelle Tafoya pulls off that upset there.
• 40:59
  They will be so pissed if that's true.
• 41:01
  If they get.
• 41:02
  All the way there and then lose Minnesota.
• 41:04
  Oh my God,
• 41:05
  I can't wait for the,
• 41:06
  for the postmortem on that one.
• 41:08
  It'll be fascinating.
• 41:09
  Uh,
• 41:09
  Steve Dace,
• 41:10
  be sure to check out the Steve Day show,
• 41:11
  uh,
• 41:12
  Blaze TV.
• 41:13
  Uh,
• 41:13
  Steve,
• 41:14
  uh,
• 41:14
  thanks so much for all of this insight and,
• 41:16
  uh,
• 41:16
  I,
• 41:16
  I,
• 41:16
  I always love having you on to talk about all this stuff.
• 41:18
  I love geeking out with you.
• 41:20
  No,
• 41:20
  anytime,
• 41:20
  brother.
• 41:21
  Good to see you.
• 41:33
  Everything's running long today,
• 41:34
  so we only have a couple of minutes here for Canada countdown.
• 41:37
  We have 27 days until
• 41:39
  the midterm election,
• 41:40
  and one of the things we tried to do this week was to try to find out where the edge was,
• 41:43
  right?
• 41:44
  Let's say there is a huge Democratic year.
• 41:46
  Where's the edge?
• 41:47
  Um,
• 41:48
  and,
• 41:48
  you know,
• 41:49
  yesterday,
• 41:49
  or was it yesterday,
• 41:50
  I think we did,
• 41:50
  uh,
• 41:50
  or two days ago,
• 41:51
  we did Julia Letlow.
• 41:52
  She's the,
• 41:53
  uh,
• 41:53
  Louisiana senator.
• 41:55
  You know,
• 41:55
  it's kind of a taste thing here.
• 41:57
  Because I think we're safe on both of these races.
• 42:00
  There's a little more risk and a little more reward for this 1.
• 42:03
  27 days until the,
• 42:04
  uh,
• 42:05
  remaining,
• 42:05
  until the midterms.
• 42:06
  Our candidate of the day today is Cindy
• 42:09
  Hyde-Smith
• 42:11
  from Mississippi.
• 42:11
  You think Mississippi,
• 42:12
  Louisiana,
• 42:13
  those are two races,
• 42:13
  of course,
• 42:14
  Republicans are gonna hold,
• 42:15
  right?
• 42:15
  Well,
• 42:16
  This one's a little more risky.
• 42:17
  You can get this race,
• 42:18
  I think it's in like the 90s.
• 42:20
  I'll show you the market here in a second,
• 42:21
  but,
• 42:21
  um,
• 42:21
  Mississippi Democrats dare to wonder whether the seat
• 42:24
  is in reach.
• 42:26
  It doesn't feel like it should be in reach.
• 42:27
  It should be easy.
• 42:29
  Um,
• 42:29
  however,
• 42:29
  uh,
• 42:30
  Cindy Hyde-Smith,
• 42:30
  uh,
• 42:31
  is,
• 42:31
  uh,
• 42:31
  you know,
• 42:31
  You know,
• 42:32
  uh,
• 42:32
  a candidate,
• 42:33
  um,
• 42:33
  um,
• 42:33
  that,
• 42:34
  you know,
• 42:34
  should be heavily favored here,
• 42:35
  but there is a little bit of doubt in some people's minds.
• 42:38
  Now,
• 42:38
  let me give you a little bit of a background here.
• 42:40
  Uh,
• 42:41
  Trump carried the state 60 to 38,
• 42:43
  61-38,
• 42:45
  a 23 point margin.
• 42:47
  Um,
• 42:47
  Roger Wicker,
• 42:48
  the other senator,
• 42:48
  won reelection by 25 points on the same ballot.
• 42:51
  So this was pretty,
• 42:52
  usually smooth sailing in,
• 42:53
  in Mississippi.
• 42:54
  Hyde Smith has already won two statewide Senate elections.
• 42:57
  You'll notice they're smaller margins though,
• 42:58
  7.3 points,
• 42:59
  um,
• 43:00
  back in 2018.
• 43:01
  Really bad year
• 43:02
  for,
• 43:03
  uh,
• 43:03
  for Republicans.
• 43:04
  So
• 43:04
  she still won by 7,
• 43:05
  won by 10 points in 2020.
• 43:07
  Um,
• 43:08
  there hasn't been a serious Republican revolt against her.
• 43:11
  She won easily in the primaries.
• 43:12
  She's got about 3 times as much cash on hand than her opponent.
• 43:16
  And,
• 43:16
  uh,
• 43:17
  even some of the polling,
• 43:18
  um,
• 43:19
  if we can show some of these polls real quick,
• 43:21
  these are all Democratic-sponsored polls.
• 43:23
  They're,
• 43:23
  they're like,
• 43:24
  we need to release these polls.
• 43:25
  What you see in them
• 43:27
  largely is,
• 43:28
  uh,
• 43:29
  Smith,
• 43:29
  the,
• 43:30
  the older ones are way before even some of the primaries,
• 43:32
  but like if you look at Hyde Smith,
• 43:33
  the last two polls,
• 43:34
  both released by her opponent,
• 43:36
  Scott Colomb.
• 43:37
  She's still winning by 6 points.
• 43:39
  So,
• 43:39
  even when they're trying to put out favorable results,
• 43:42
  she's still ahead.
• 43:42
  The one thing I will say here,
• 43:43
  and the reason why you can get better value on this
• 43:45
  is her opponent is stronger.
• 43:47
  Um,
• 43:47
  Scott,
• 43:48
  Scott Colomb is a better opponent than Jamie Davis.
• 43:50
  Um,
• 43:51
  she is not particularly favorable,
• 43:53
  uh,
• 43:53
  in the state.
• 43:54
  She doesn't have a great favorability rating.
• 43:56
  She's about 10 points underwater there.
• 43:58
  And of course,
• 43:58
  this is a Democratic year.
• 44:00
  She has underperformed the Republican ticket previously.
• 44:03
  She's not the strongest a candidate.
• 44:04
  Right here,
• 44:04
  you're kind of just like putting all your,
• 44:06
  uh,
• 44:07
  eggs in,
• 44:07
  uh,
• 44:07
  one basket here and saying,
• 44:08
  look,
• 44:10
  There's gotta be a line here.
• 44:11
  Democrats are not gonna win every one of these states.
• 44:13
  This is freaking Mississippi.
• 44:15
  This is a very Republican state.
• 44:17
  This is a 20 point plus state
• 44:19
  two years ago.
• 44:20
  They're going,
• 44:21
  this is gonna be closer than that race,
• 44:23
  that I promise you,
• 44:24
  but I think she still has enough room to hold on.
• 44:27
  I do have an opinion,
• 44:27
  uh,
• 44:28
  uh,
• 44:28
  market,
• 44:28
  uh,
• 44:28
  uh,
• 44:29
  a,
• 44:29
  a position on her though it's not massive,
• 44:31
  because there is some risk here.
• 44:32
  She's right now at 90.4%. Again,
• 44:34
  Mississippi.
• 44:35
  They're giving the Democrat a 10% chance to win there.
• 44:38
  10% is a pretty nice return on what you get in Mississippi.
• 44:41
  And if you think this is going to be a wave,
• 44:42
  there's lots of value there on,
• 44:43
  on Scott Colom.
• 44:44
  I mean,
• 44:44
  you're gonna,
• 44:45
  you're looking at,
• 44:45
  you know,
• 44:46
  9,
• 44:46
  10x your money.
• 44:47
  So that's where we are on that particular race.
• 44:49
  I just want to remind you,
• 44:50
  PredictableShow.com.
• 44:51
  Got two debates tonight.
• 44:52
  I'm gonna do everything I can to watch them,
• 44:54
  get in the chat,
• 44:54
  maybe do some live streaming.
• 44:55
  I don't know what's going on tonight.
• 44:56
  I have to look at my schedule,
• 44:57
  but
• 44:57
  Uh,
• 44:58
  I'm gonna do as much as I can to be on there with you
• 45:00
  tonight
• 45:00
  to talk about that.
• 45:01
  You can get all the tools that we talked about,
• 45:03
  the predictable midterm consensus and so much more there as well.
• 45:06
  All right,
• 45:06
  we gotta go.
• 45:06
  We're out of time.
• 45:07
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 45:08
  We'll see you at predictableshow.com.