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NFC North Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: six five.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Part of the Action Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I'm chadmill and the chief content officer of the Action Network.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: We are continuing our division previews for the Favorites podcast,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: our betting previews. Today we're talking the NFC North. We
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: got a very special guest, Rich Reebar from Sharp Football Analysis.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: We're going to dig into all of it. Me and
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: my co hosts, my bff, my companion Michael Padre, Professional
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Better Simon Hunter Ello.
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: So I'm in, Hello, hot shot. How are we doing,
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: brother dude?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I am so good. So here's how I feel about
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: the Bears right now. I said, we're talking about the
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: NFC North. This is how national the hype is for.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: The Chicago Bears.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: And I'm going deep into sort of connecting the dots
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: as both a super fan but also as a very
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: experienced journalist and a very experienced media executive whose goal
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: is to acquire audience and convert you into doing something
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: that you otherwise would not have done. Right, go to
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: ESPN dot com this morning, getting ready for the podcast,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: prepping a little bit.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: I see that there's a story by Bill Barnwell.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Barnwell is ranking players according to are you going from
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Pro Bowl to Superstar?
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Are you going from starter to Pro Bowl? Et cetera,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: On this list, he could have there. He had Trevor Lawrence.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: He had Garrett Wilson, right, superstar quarterback on a hot team,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: superstar wide receiver on the one team. Everybody cannot stop
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: talking about the New York Jets. The picture that they
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: choose to put at the very top of the homepage
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: is not getting at Wilson. It is not Trevor will
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: is not Trevor Lawrence.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: It is a Chicago Bear.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: So you think, oh well, it must be justin fields.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: That's all anyone could talk about. Right There is so
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: much hype around the Chicago Bears that instead of Garrett
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Wilson and Trevor Lawrence, ESPN decided they would bring people
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: in with a different Chicago Bear in a Chicago Bear helmet.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Safety Jakwan Brisker, second year safety who Bill Barnwell says,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: will go from starter to Pro Bowl status this year.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: That's how hot the hype is around the Chicago Bears
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: This is almost as crazy it was and what was
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: at twenty eighteen where Mitch Trubisky was the biggest bet
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: at sports books for MVP at fifty to one. So
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: that we all know how that worked out for the Bears, right,
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: So it's it's a scary time to be a bet
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: a Bears backer, and better.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: It might be time to fade the Bears.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: The Favorites Podcast is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: the world's favorite sports book brand.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: Sign up with promo code action.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: To get BET three sixty five's exclusive sign up offer,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: a bet one dollar on any game and get two
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars in bone. Bets must be twenty one or older.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or text one eight hundred Gambler. Let's
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: welcome in Rich Rebar Sharp Football Analysis. Rich Warne Sharp
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: sent me a copy of his massive, massive bible of
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: a book to preview the NFL season.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I've been pouring over it.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I've been doing my research in it for these division previews.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Right now, it's open to a team from the.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: AFC South for a different podcast that we've done. It's
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: a great book, though, Buddy no.
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: I appreciate it.
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: We pour a lot into that in the right after
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: the draft, and you know, it's always kind of a
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: labor of love, but it's fun to kind of get
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: on these shows and get to talk about some of
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: the stuff we uncovered in those book.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: In that book, all right, I'll say the biggest value
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: in that book if people are thinking about buying it,
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: is they go over which team has the better rest? Right,
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: So one team might be playing on a Monday night
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: and the following week they're playing on a Sunday compared
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: to a team that might be coming off a bye week.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: So it's a big deal if you're catching the team
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: at the right time. And I think last year he
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: nailed it where there are certain teams that you know
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: every week they seem like they're playing teams off better rest,
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: and that really did catch up. But I think Colts
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: were one of those teams that he predicted earlier in
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: the year they were going to have a lot of
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: issues because teams are playing against that better rest. So
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: it's a big ass book, but it is worth the
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: time to check it out and read.
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: The Bears are the only team in the NFL that
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: do not play a team we had a rest disadvantage
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: in the in the entire season.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, strength of scheduled game timing, analyzing rest and prep
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: inequality in the twenty twenty three scheduled.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: The Sharp Football Analysis twenty twenty.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Three football preview really good gets you ready for the season.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I got it before I could even open it. My
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: sixteen year old was reading it standing up at the
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: kitchen counter, you know, and kids these days they don't read.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: So the fact he did it and was so excited
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: he was reading it while standing.
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: A lot of pictures, it's amazing.
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: We have some of the top people, like probably assume
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: making these schedules. I assume a lot goes into it
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: because of the minutia that has to make sure all
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: these things are lined up.
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: And to still see that like.
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: The NFL doesn't look at the because they clearly don't
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: look at like this like a from like a balance perspective,
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: because once again it's just completely lopsided. You know, teams
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: like the Jets are completely lopside in terms of favorite schedule,
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: like the Rams play four teams coming off of a bye,
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: the forty nine ers, like negative twenty days, and like
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: rest disadvantage. It's it's really wild the disparity of some
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: of this stuff.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Let's get to it, by the way, NFC North, if
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: we're talking about interesting divisions, we're talking about the NFC North.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: They've got the Bears, one of the.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Most overhyped teams based solely on quarterback and the addition
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: of DJ Moore, the Lions one of the most loved
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: teams from the past two years, the Vikings eighteam primed
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: for regression because of how many one score games. I
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: think they had ten to one score games last year.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: And then the Packers out of the Aaron Rodgers era
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: into the Jordan Love era. This division is wide freaking open.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Rich of the division odds Detroit plus one thirty, Minnesota
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: plus two eighty all at that, three sixty five, Chicago
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: plus four hundred, Green Bay plus four hundred. The season
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: win totals nine and a half, eight and a half,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, seven and a half.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: What's your favorite bet of all of these? What is
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: your favorite bet?
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: Packers plus four hundred to win the division for sure
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: is by far my favorite. You said it's wide open.
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: I believe the Lions have the third lowest odds for
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: a projected division winner is the Packers from a top
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: down perspective. I mean, they still have the best roster,
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: the best complete roster in this division. Just a big
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: question mark at quarterback, but they got really bad quarterback
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: play last year, and you know, the bar is set
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: really low for them to kind of have equal or
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: maybe potentially even better.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: And not saying Joey.
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: Loves will be better than Aaron Rodgers' career, but twenty
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: twenty two, Aaron Rodgers, the bar is is wide open
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: for him to be better than that. They're returning every
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: player that played an offensive line snap for them, just everything,
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: and they their team when you look at you look
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: at Lafloor and how they structure their offense. This is
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: a team that has one of these these schedules in
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: the NFL. They have a good run game, good offensive line.
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: They're just not going to play to beat themselves. And
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: like those are teams that always end up having more
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: success than assumed. And like you kind of talked about
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: the Bears, people might just be a step ahead on them.
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: The Lions.
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: I totally get why they're there, and I'm excited about
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: the Lions as well, but like, this is the team
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: that sells like a major questions defensively and being able
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: to stop anybody. So, I mean, I look at the Packers.
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: I'm all in on the kind of like throwing bullets
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: at the Packers.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Here, all right, So let's start with the Packers. According
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: to Sean Kerner's Strength of.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Schedule, the Packers have the sixteenth easiest.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Essentially their middle of the road.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Jordan loves as a QB fantasy QB in Sean Cruner's
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: QB tiers in Tier seven, eighth best offensive line overall.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I have a lot of thoughts on this part, Simon.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: What is your take on Rich's idea that maybe green
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Bay is the best bet for division winners and win
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: totals for all four teams in this division.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: I keep thinking of Jesse from breaking bad, screaming they
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: can't keep getting away with this. That's how I feel
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: about green Bay and their damn quarterback position. You're telling
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: me green Bay is going to go from Hall of
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: Famer Brett Farv to Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, and
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: now Love is going to step in and be that
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: next Hall of famer. I can't do it, Chat, I
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: can't believe in it. I can't put money on it.
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: I gotta fake green Bay Rich. He made really good
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: points of They are by far the most complete team
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: in this division. They have the best offensive line, they
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: have the best defense. They probably have the best one
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: to two punch in the running back position. Their wide
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: receiver corps is great as my worst in football. They
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: have a bad wide receiving corps. And if Jordan Love
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: is that guy, that would be incredible for them. But
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: we've seen history of these guys first time starts. Even
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers his first time starting. I believe he was
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: six and ten as a starter his first season. It's
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: just really hard to step in in that kind of
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: position in Green Bay with all that history. I mean,
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: any normal person would fall unerneath that weight. And there's
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: nothing against Jordan Love for that. He's literally following up
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, who's one of the greatest quarterbacks we've ever seen.
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: I think that's a bit too much put on this
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: kid's shoulder. So it makes sense why Rich likes them
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: that they're probably I would say most professional betters I
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: talk do. They like them. They locked upside of Jordan Love.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: This kid is a mobile quarterback with a really good
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: arm like that. That's exactly what you want in football
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: these days. You want a guy that can move outside
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: the pocket great his own plays. I just can't get
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: behind it. I'll be on them next year, after Jordan
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: Love gets a year under him. I just don't see
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: this kid being Patrick Mahomes. That's what you'd have to
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: be for this team to be legit. If I see
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: him taking huge strides, maybe I'll check myself if I
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: see him taking big strides in this preseason. But from
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: with the little stuff I've read and seen right now,
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: it just seems like he's gonna have growing pains, which
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: every quarterback does their first year. Is a starter. It's
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: just the natural progressional foot. It's really really hard to
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: be good right out the gate. I can maybe see
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: them get over this win total seven and a half.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: That seems like a really fair number in this division,
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: where again they're the most complete team in this division.
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: I just I have too many questions works about Jordan
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: Love that really back them. As we said here early August.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Two follow ups here.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: First the question mark for me, I get why everyone
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: says this offensive line is so good, but David Baktiari
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: is the guy who grades out as the best offensive
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: lineman on this team. Do we have any concerns that,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: even though he's come back from the knee injury, that
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: it's a chronic knee injury that could be something that
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: makes his availability inconsistent? Rich, I will start with you,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: are we concerned that we're anchoring their status as one
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: of the best offensive lines on a guy who had
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: consistent injury issues the past few years.
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: I missed the third of the season last year. Dy
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: if they were top ten in both past strushunway and
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: run blocking win right, so it's kind of already cooked
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: in right, Okay, fair enough? They also they also too
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: from a strength of a schedule analysis to they faced
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: the our thirty second ranked pass rush schedule, which also
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: factors into like, even if they are like kind of like,
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: let's say they take a step back, they're not as
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: good offensive line as maybe we project back carry's injured,
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: they have some other injuries along the way, even though
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: they were really snake bit last year up front, the
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: pass rushers they're facing are extremely light this year on paper.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Rich kind of just told me I'm an idiot but
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: used stats to do it.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: Totally cool.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: He's a second time guest in the last few weeks,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: So I guess he's hearing that right, you know, spreading
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: his wings a little bit.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: All good.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love Rich says, this team all around has the
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: best roster, can get over any issues because Aaron Rodgers
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: in the end wasn't that great. Simon is saying this
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: team has the best roster. But Jordan Love is such
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: a question mark you can't rely on it. Why would
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: I believe one over the other?
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Right now? Simon you start, I.
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Mean, that's a weighted question, Chad. You know there's a
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: bunch of things going through it. It's just I'm just
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: playing the history of it. A lot of what we
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: do your child's playing percentages in the math. We have
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: never seen a team have three straight Hall of Famers
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: at the quarterback position. It just it has never happened.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: So it might seem like it's born. And it's lazy
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: work to say Jordan Love just won't pan out because
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: the previous two quarterbacks are all of Famers. It just
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: it can't happen. Chad. I can't wrap my head around.
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, I can't even imagine being a Chicago Bears
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: fan who fucking hates green Bay. If this kid works out,
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: Chad and just a Field doesn't work out, I might
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: never ever see Chat again. That might just be it
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: for Bears fans. I mean, honestly, this off she has
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: been fun as hell, because I feel like, not that
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: Bears fans have been quiet, but they're definitely puffed for
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: the their chest out right now on social media and
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: the Green Bay Packers they're doing it right back at them.
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: They're being like, you guys are our little brother. They're
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: putting you guys in the locker right now. They're just saying,
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: you don't get it like Jordan Love. We've seen it.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: We've seen it practice, We've seen this team be different. No,
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: we've heard the whole mood that this is his team now.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: So my big reason for not believing in Jordan Love
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: is just because it's year one. He has a lot
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: of questions right now. That's why I think Rich and
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: a lot of the pros are taking a position on
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: Green Bay. It makes sense they're lily back in the
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: unknown because the value is there if they could easily
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: steal this division. I don't think he's going to be
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: that guy this year. I think maybe next year, but
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: this year I think he's going to struggle mightily in
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: this offense.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter going against the grain. Rich is going with
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: an interesting consensus take. If the consensus is a small
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: group of people who do this professionally. Simon going with
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: a iconoclastic take, which is against all of his professional colleagues,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: but potentially with the public. What's into Yeah, that's interesting,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: glad we could break it down.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Rich.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not asking you to answer, because you probably just
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: make me feel bad by ripping the ears.
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: I will say, I'm not.
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: I don't want to say like a Packers Hawk either.
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: I think it's also a part of the bet is
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: betting against the other three teams.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Still good name, right, let's talk about one of those
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: other three teams going from.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: The bottom up.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go from the bottom up, so we'll do
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: the Lions and Vikings last, the Chicago Bears.
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: After that, say.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Four to one to win the Division. Seven and a
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: half is the season win total. Simon and I very bullishly,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: very enthusiastically bought Bears tickets to win the Super Bowl
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: at one hundred to one eighty to one as soon
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: as they opened. After the Chiefs win the Super Bowl,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Dig a little deeper. And there's a lot of holes
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: on this team, right, a lot of questions on the
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: offensive line. We just talked about the Packers having the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: tenth overall offensive line.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: The Bears offensive line.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Total is UH twenty first at ranked twenty first according
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: to PFF.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Eighty percent of the line is new this year.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Rookie right tackle, he's either your right tackle.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, that's right, that's right.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Joking back to the fact that our new rookie offensive
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: lineman didn't realize he was doing the wide receiver workouts
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: all season, so he's in great shape.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: And look, the Bears.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Defensive line is thirty first in the league. Basically lasting
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: pressure rate when not blitzing and last and sack right
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: on dropbacks without blitzes. Terrible defensive line that did not
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: really improve on the edges in any single way.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: So did you see you go sign this weekend?
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: We signed Yanique in Gakway. I don't think that makes
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: us all that much better on the defensive line.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: Sure he does. I think he had more sex than
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: your entire team last year.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: But our entire team's defensive line was terrible last year.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, now you just got better.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: We got a little better. I said, not all that
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: much better, a little better.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: It's like saying it's like the difference between Mit and
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: not including Mike when talking about the Seattle Seahawks having
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the greatest trio wide receivers in NFL history. The Bears
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: are great when you think about Justin Fields and DJ
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Moore and Jaquon Brisker. Less great when you think about
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: every other position on the field.
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: Rich, Yeah, the Bears are very interesting because you know
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: you're in your three of Justin Fields, right, Like it's
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: a huge folking point on the on Justin Fields' career.
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: Like you know, he has the first year that's like
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: a punt year. He gets a bunch of experience. It's
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: it's largely, you know, pretty shitty experience. But hey, he's
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: on the field, he's getting reps. Year two is like
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: just a tear down here, you get a new GM.
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: They just like cut all this salary, right, They just
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: they just bled I think they had like ninety four
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: ninety five million in dead cap space last year. They
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: just just purged the roster. And then you know, Justin
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: Tiell test to basically play with like this ragtab group
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: from you rookie head coach, Like all these things kind
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: to go to place like this is like where we're
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: going to start to get answers right on Justin Fields,
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: because Yo, here it is here two your three rookie
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: contract and it all falls on him, right. Like we
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: talked about this when I was on the show at
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: you last time, about Justin Fields and like where he
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: has to clean up, right, because it's one thing if
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: you draft darn all right, you add Nate Davis. Like
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: Fields himself has to not just be a quarterback that
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: takes so many negative plays.
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: We talked about it.
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, he historically is the worst quarterback through tiars
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: his career in taking sacks. That's something that's followed him
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: through college. And it's not talking about just like an
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: offensive line issue. I mean he's been sacked on thirty
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: two and a half percent of his pressures to start
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: his career. The league average over this fan is twenty percent.
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: If you think about why this matters, you know, I
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: dropped all those stats in the last show, but the
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: Bears themselves, and the Bears didn't. When Justin Fields wasn't
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: sacked on a drive last year, the Bears were twelfth
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: in the NFL and points per drive, they were eleventh
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: in scoring rate per drive. When they did have a sack,
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: they're thirty first in points per drive twenty ninth and
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: scoring rate per drive. Like, its massive that he cleans
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: this up, he gets rid of the football and we'll
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: see if he's able to you know, kind of really
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: harness that because this followed him in Ohio State too.
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: It's easy to mask, you know, when you're throwing to
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: the talent that Ohio State had.
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: So is that gonna happen? Is that going to roll
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: over this year?
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: And then you talk about defensively like and like I'm
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: curious to get your guys' take on like Ryan Poles,
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: because I don't think anyone like runs hotter or colder
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: than him. I don't really know what to think about
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: like this plan because you have the Claypole trade last year.
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: He gives up like the thirty second pick, a lot
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: of a lot of equity. And then like, look at
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: who the Bear signed this year. They're out here signing
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: off ball linebackers. Like granted, like trade Edmonds is a
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: really good off ball linebacker, but like, is this where
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: you this is like historically like not where you're modern
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: NFL you allocate your money too, right, this is not
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: where you put your money to. Like you signed edge rushers,
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: you signed the edge protectors. You sign guys that can
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: then play defensive back. So I'm really curious about like
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: the top down approach from the Bears in general, like
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: if it's something I should believe in or like this
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: is something that's just like like they're just kind of
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: swinging away because the first year his draft too, he
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: drafted all old players. They just drafted nothing but like
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: players that were like seniors, four years guys in college. Like,
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: I don't know, I feel like Ryan Poles isn't looking
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: at the right things.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: Simon, I'll let you go first. I got. I actually
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: do have a lot of opinions on this, yeah.
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: And all fair. Like again, the Rocon Smith trade doesn't
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: really make sense now they signed all these linebackers. It
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: was like you had a guy in house who's you're
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: a guy the Ravens, who are a good organization, gave
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: him a shit ton of money. So that right there,
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: that's another stand on his mark. So I do think
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: he nailed this draft this past year, like moving moving
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: that number one pick, getting a number one true receiver,
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: arguably a top five receiver for just In Fields. That's
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: everything right to this offense. They needed that guy where
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: we've seen Justin Fields throws an incredible deep ball. That's
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: one of his biggest strengths. So you know they got
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: all the weapons right. And when you taed are talked about,
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: there's no excuses for Fields this year. I don't care
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: what your views of him were coming to the season. Right,
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: he's five and twenty as a starter. This is everything.
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: It's like Jalen Hurts last year. It's a GM. Put
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: this in the position with all these weapons to take
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: the next step, and that's what we're looking for here
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: with Fields, Like if Fields again they're over under seven
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: and a half wins. If you can't get that over,
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: that's major red flags to this team, Like this kid
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: needs to take that next step, especially in the since
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: they've improved this defense to meet dramatically, like they were
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: arguably the worst defense in all football last year. They
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: went outside a bunch of guys. I don't know how
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: it's gonna work on the field, but they spent the
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: money right, They went out and got the linebackers. They're
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: hoping that this d ND they add another d end
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: to this team, because I'm with you, Chad, like the
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: job's not done here, they need to add another piece
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: of this defense. Just talking upside this this is the team,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: This is they team. So it wasn't shocked that, I mean,
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: you got one hundred and one chat just because everything
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: we just talked about, all the growing pains this team have.
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: They're down to fifty to one now most books, so
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: it seems like the public has really jumped on board
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: with this team. To me, they have the highest upside
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: of any team, just because we've seen these moments from Fields,
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: like I just sticking out of my head that Field's
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: game in prime time where he went up to New
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: England and he just took over. He played so well
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: against a Belichick coach defense. I can't stop thinking about that,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: where it's I know this kid has all the tools there,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: he just needed the weapons. And maybe I'm a year early, Chad.
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: That is a fear here with this Bears team that
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: I'm a year early, because you know, this isn't it
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: for Fields, Like if he sucks this year, the Bears
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: don't care. They're gonna roll out the same team next year.
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: Hopefully improve a little bit next year. I mean, shit,
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: you guys still have like sixty million dollars in cap
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: space to spend. Yeah, you know, there's there's a lot
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: more growth to happen with this team. If this defense
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: can just be better than they were last year, if
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: they can turn the ball over, which was a big
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: thing last year, they just couldn't get thrown overs. You know,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: that's huge to this Bears offense. So you know, I
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: think Claypool and DJ Moore, those are two huge pillars
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: that have on the outside, and with a guy like
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: you know, Fields who can throw the ball deep, I
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: do think he'll take another step this year. Jed. So,
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: my favorite bet right now for this this division is
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: them at plus four hundred to win this division in
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: the over seven and a half. I just think it's
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: all there for this Bears team. And the only fear
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: chad for me right now is where a year early,
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: like if they don't take a step next year, could
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: easily see them taken it next year. But I'm not
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: gonna wait to bet on it. I win a bet
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: at this year just because I think it's all there
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: for them to make a ten and seven eleven and
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: six kind of run this upcoming season just because last
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: year they weren't as bad as a record showed people. Really,
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: they look at last year and they're like, well, look
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: at all these issues they had. I think we both
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: can agree there was a little bit of a tank there, right.
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: I mean there was a little bit of a tank
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: there towards the end of the season. I can just
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: think of when the Eagles played them. Then when the
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: Eagles played Justin Fields missed what was at a quarter
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: of the game right because he had some type of injury,
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: and then he came back and really ran and drove
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: it down the field for a two minute drill and
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: basically tied the game up. So there's just a lot
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: going on there where I think too much is being
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: made out of last year. And again, as someone that's
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: heavily back in the Bear's chad, everything I've seen this
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: preseason is that Justin Fields has taken the next step.
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: He's calling the plays at the line. He doesn't need
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: the plays in his ear. He's calling the plays and
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: making adjustments at the line. That's what I wanted to see.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: That's what I saw last year from Hurts before he
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: took the next step, and that's what I'm saying right now.
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: Justin Fields So I am way too overly excited about
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: this Bears team. I'm trying to keep a team. But
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: it's all there for them, obviously. The biggest question mark
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: is is that defense. Jad We just we don't know
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: how this team's going to be put together. It's just
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: thrown together all these players right now, we don't know
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: how they're going to be as a unit.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: So Rich brought up Ryan Poles, and how do we
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: judge what he's done so far inherited Justin Fields. I
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: thought the Bears brilliantly Matt ebra Fluse and Luke Getzi
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: last year, after a dreadful game against the Washington Commanders
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: had the bye week saw I think what the Eagles
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: were starting to do with Jalen Hurtz realized they had
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: a similar player in Justin Fields and really rebuilt the
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: offense over that two week period where it became much
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: more about Justin Field's playmaker. Recognizing Darnel Mooney was hurt,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: wasn't the same player. They weren't getting the same production
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: from the running game. So I think they learned so
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: much last season about Justin Fields and that's why there's
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: so much enthusiasm.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: You can start to.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Build a team around what his strengths are as he
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: becomes a much better quarterback and doing the things you
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: would just mentioned. Simon Mooney's ankle injury is better. He's recovered,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: he's faster. Remember this is a sub four to four
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: guy before he was injured. Claypool is the third option after.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: Mooney and DJ Moore. Cole kmet in the red zone.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: But you haven't built on the offensive and defensive line,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: and that's what you got to do to win in
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: the NFL.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: I am going to be all over the Bears.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not denying it, but I am trying to temper
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: my enthusiasm because I do worry about the moves like
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Roquan Smith and the inability to see Oh my god,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: this could be the anchor for the defense and the
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: tradition of middle linebackers for the Bears, and instead you
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: get rid of them in a team that, like you
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: pointed out, Simon is so good at judging character and
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: talent immediately gives this guy the bag. So I think
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: the jury's out on Polls. Great move to trade down.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: I thought he did a really nice job the assets
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: he got. But at this point, with this quarterback and
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: the cap space that he's had and the assets he's
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: been able to acquire, they got to win the Super
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Bowl the next two to three years.
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: That's fair.
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: I like the Bears a similar spot of the Jaguars
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: were last year where people were early on the Jaguars
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: and they started out slow. I think if you really
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: like the Bears on the level that Simon does, they're
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: gonna be a real value in season because the back
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: half of their schedule so good. Ex said, the Jaguars
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: are very I was hammering the Jaguars and like week six,
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: Week seven when after they went to London and they
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: looked terrible against the Broncos to win the division still
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: against the Titans because the two schedules were gonna flip
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: and the Titans had gotten banged up.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: I think the.
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: Bears are gonna be a similar team where like they're
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: opening half is not necessarily daunting, but they're probably gonna
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: lose games like the Chiefs, you know, early in the season.
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: But I think in the back half of the year,
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: like once they clear that Chargers game, like there's a
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: lot of winnable games from the back half of the year,
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: and we already said they have no games for the
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: rest disadvantage.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Guys, Matt and Simon, listen to me followers around the corner.
• 26:33
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• 28:22
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings are plus two to eighty season win
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: total of eight and a half.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Regression, regression, regression.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: I feel like your opinion of the Vikings depends on
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: your opinion of the Lions and your opinion.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: Of the Bears.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: And I don't mean that to be like, well that
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: you can say that about every division, but you got
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: to believe that those two teams are going to step
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: up and the Vikings, who just got so lucky last
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: year so many times, will take a step back. Simon
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: even with Kirk Cousins, even with Justin Jefferson, even with
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: the eighth easiest schedule.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: According Sean Kerner, even.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: With well, that's that's really it, that's their highlights. Do
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: you believe do you believe that they take a step back?
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: Do you believe that they are a team that can compete?
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: I am happy to get burned by the Vikings again.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: I was I bet them to miss a playoffs last year.
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: I think I was plus one sixty plus one seventy.
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: That was clearly a dumb bet. They ran away with
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: this division. They were by far the best team in
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: the division in the sense that they just could close
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: out games. Even in games they were down, they always
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: found a way to win. And you know, after watching
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: that Quarterback Show, gave me a new respect for Kirk Cousins.
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, the guy, I agree, he does put the
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: work in like it's it's pretty incredible how committed he
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: is and how hard he knows he has to work.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, shit, Kirk might be like thirty five, now
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: thirty four is he's up there in age he is.
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: I mean for a guy like him, his playing style,
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: this is pretty much Pete Kirk Cousins like he's really
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: sharp mentally, he's got all the arm talent in the world.
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: He can make all the throws. It's always been a
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: question of Kirk being consistent. That's always been a problem
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: with Kirk. He's he's inconsistent, and last year he stepped up. Man.
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: I mean he knew to go back and watch a
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: lot of their games when he was in doubt or
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: when he was in trouble. He just threw it up
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: to Justin Jefferson and that's what he should be doing.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: That's the best receiver in football. Like that, that's what
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: you know, you look for in a quarterback position where
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: you know your back's against the wall. It's third and fourteen,
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: throw to your best guy, live and die or your
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: best guy. And that's what they really did last year.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: So Chad, you nailed it. We just expect regression. They
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: were what ten and zero and one score games. It's
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: something crazy like that last.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Year, including the greatest comeback in NFL history.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, which me and Chad we still covered that Colts
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: three and a half, but holy shit, was that a sweat. Yeah,
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: you know, this is a team that say what you want.
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: I don't think they improved on their defense. I still
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: think their defense, especially their secondary, had a lot of
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: holes in it. And they're playing in a division. Now
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: that you know the Lion's gonna throw the ball, we
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: expect justin fields better throw the ball like these teams.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: Last year. Detroit still wasn't sure the hell they were
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: halfway through the season, right. They really hit their stride
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: at the midway point once they really figure out that
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: secondary on the defense, the Bears has never found it
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: in green Bay never found it. So the Vikings only
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: had a nice nice spot last year right to run
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: away with this division. I got them behind Green Bay
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: and the Bears, right, So I clearly I'm taking an
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: under on them. They're just They're just a team that
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: I can't get a read on chat So I might
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: get burned again by this Vikings team and Kirk Cousins
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: because he just is that guy. But I think it's
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: very telling that the Vikings haven't resigned him either. Right,
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: this is his final year of his deal. They're not
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: giving him the money that he thought he was gonna
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: get this point. So definitely a make or break season
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: for Kirk Cousins his Vikings team. I'm gonna think they
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: funderneath their pressure. I'm gonna take that under eight and
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, I just don't.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: It defies all logic to better on a team with
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: a mediocre defense whose best edge rusher wasn't even signed
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: to the team until the past week. They've gotten rid
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: of their four time Pro Bowl running back uh and
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: they win so many one score games. You can't keep
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: betting on a team like that. It's actually throwing bad
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: money after bets right, like you're just making.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: The wrong decision.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Could get burned. Rich Mike Tellis were wrong, but I'm not.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to be backing a Minnesota Vikings team
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: that got so that, so so lucky in so many
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: spots last year. I agree with you about Kirk Cousins
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: in the Quarterback documentary. I loved the guy. I thought
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: he was just honest and open and seemed lovely.
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like I viewed him, I think he's a douche,
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: but he's a likable douche. Like he's the kind of
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: guy that so, yeah, you're a you're a little bit
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: of a douche chat. I mean, come on, So when
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: I looked at Kirk, he just, you know him and
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: his wife there. They seem like really nice people, But
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: I would lose my fucking mind hanging out with those
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: two people, Like I just couldn't be further apart from
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: these really nice, sweet Christians. But listen, I don't.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying I want to hang out with them.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I found him to be a little bit sort of
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: corny and earnest, but I also found him to be
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: authentically honest, right, And I liked the way he talked
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: about being totally bummed about not being invited to NFL
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Honors and then and then then they're like asking him
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: to do a sketch and He's like, two hours ago,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: I wasn't even invited. Now you got me singing on
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: a stage like and so I just thought that was
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: I thought it was totally honest.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: Like him singing in a school choir like him and
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: his little boy band group. Not shocked at all that
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins sang in a duop with four other guys.
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: I mean, just's very.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: Yes, it was completely on brand.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Rich opinions about quarterback or opinions about the Minnesota Vikings.
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: No, I'm in locked up with you guys on this one.
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, like you said, It's just anytime you see
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: like a team just have this much of an anomaly
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: and be so much of an outlier and not just
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: one score games. I mean, this is a team that
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: was thirtieth in the NFL and point differential quarters one
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: through three, like they just needed like these immense like
• 34:10
  Speaker 5: jail break situations to go their way, to live that.
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: Way is so wild.
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: Right to just like double down on that and say
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: like this team was statistically one of the worst teams
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: in the NFL quarters one through three and then just
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: turned it on like the fourth quarter and all like
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: these when when the game was literally just like wild,
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: like wild West type stuff is crazy.
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: You look at like this could.
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: Be like a Derek Carr situation too, Like this team
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: feels like they don't have both feet in the door
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: with Kirk Cousins as the future. And I get he's
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: thirty five years old, but what if, like they are
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: in the tank, Like does Kirk Cousins like not play
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: at some point in the season like Derek carrk the
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: end of last year, Like that exists as a non
• 34:49
  Speaker 5: zero range of outcomes for this team. The defense is
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: relying on just so many young players. I mean, and
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: it's a bummer that they a lot of their top
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: draft picks just didn't get a chance to play last year,
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: like Lewis Sen and Andrew Booth.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: But like they're coming in very raw again this year.
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: Are they gonna be able to stop anybody? They lose?
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: You know in an interior, you know Ron Stopper and
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: Dalvin Tomlinson, they lose Sadaria Smith. It's just a lot
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: to go into seam and their scheduled to like on
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: our end, doesn't look like that easy at all. I mean, sure,
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: you get Tampa Bay to open, but then they go
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: at Philadelphia on primetime. That went really well for them
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: last year. You play the Chargers, you went at Carolina,
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: then the Chiefs they play at Chicago after that, a
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: team we just talked about.
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: Then they play the.
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: Forty nine ers at Green Bay at Atlanta.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: Against the Saints.
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: Those are their opening ten games at Denver after that. Like,
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: I mean, there is not a lot to like here
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: on paper, Like you even if you don't want to
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: outright fade the vikings, like, I don't see how you
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: bet on them.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Did you guys see the movie Appenheimer? Remember in Oppenheimer,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: they said there's a non zero chance they could.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: They could literally that the world.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if they released the nuclear bomb. So whenever I
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: hear someone you use non zero chance, and I hear
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: more than you would think given all the nerd tastic
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: people we work with, Simon, I now think of a
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: non zero chance that Oppenheimer was telling Einstein we could
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: blow up the world.
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: You just hear Matt Damon in there.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Matt Damon. Who was the colonel or the general that.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: He was explaining it to Listen, you guys have heard
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: us talk about game Time so often on this podcast,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States. I
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: love game Time, you know I do, honestly. I use
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: it all the time. And if you're looking to get
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: out to a prolo college game this week, or even
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: a concert, game Time has amazing last minute deals on
• 36:40
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• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: This Friday night, I can get into a New York
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Football Giants game for less than ten bucks. That sounds
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: like a party to me. No matter where you live,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: download the game Time map, get out and have some
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: fun this week. You deserve it in you can redeem
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  Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms
• 37:07
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• 37:10
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars off. Download game time today, last minute tickets,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: lowest price guaranteed. We're fading the Minnesota Vikings, which leaves
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: us with the Detroit Lions. Time plus one thirty rich
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: The total is nine and a half's minus one thirty
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five to bet the over.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: You mentioned it.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: They have amongst the shortest odds for any team in
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: the NFL to win their division. We're not going to
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: bet Alliance at plus one thirty's.
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: It's it's tough because you I'm excited about the Lions,
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: right like, I like a lot of what the Lions did?
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: You know, Dan Campbell's like a fun guy to root for.
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: Everything that Ben Johnson you know, has has put on
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: basically has read may looks amazing. When you look at
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: the Lions, they were third in the NFL. And yards
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: per drive they were fourth, and scoring rate per drive fourth,
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: and touchdown rate per drive third, and punt rate per
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: drive second, turnover rate per drive.
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: They went basically as.
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: You know, Jared Goff turning the ball over not They
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: were nine and one in games they won the turnover battle,
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: ozen six in games they lost the turnover battle.
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: This is a team that basically don't beat themselves.
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: And you saw like the youth stuff, right, Like we
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: talked about this with the Bears, right the Bears are
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: probably be in the same trajectory the Jaguars last year,
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: where you start maybe below where the market has you,
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: and you finished strong. That's what the Lions did last year,
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: and it finished the season real strong. They had less
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: penalties like the final eight weeks. They were team one
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: of the least penalized teams the final eight weeks this season.
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: So all these things are building up for them, but
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: they still do have a lot of questions too. I
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: mean this is statistically, if it wasn't for the Bears
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: last year, would have had the worst defense in the
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: NFL basically in every metric that you can look at.
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: This team that still has a ton of issues in
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: the back end of the secondary. They did you know,
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: obviously eight in Hutchinson was a hit, but they still
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: have pass rush issues and they're one of the teams
• 39:03
  Speaker 5: the few teams in this Division because of where they
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: finished last year, they actually end up getting a little
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: bit of a harder draw this year than some of
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: the other teams that we talked about. I mean, obviously
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: you open at Kansas City, but they play Seattle, Atlanta,
• 39:16
  Speaker 5: you know at Green Bay. This is the team has
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: three Thursday games this year, which is a weird anomaly
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: for a season because you open the year on Thursday.
• 39:22
  Speaker 5: They always plan Thanksgiving. They get another Thursday game sandwich
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: in there. I think in week four at Green Bay.
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: There's just like a lot of weird things in place
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: here where it's like they're kind of a darling, but
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: like they have so many holes, Like they they're really
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: a hard team to like say, like I expect them
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: to like absolutely outright crush too.
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: I like a lot what they're doing.
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: I feel very positive about the direction they're moving in,
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: but I do feel like a lot of people are
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: treating them maybe like a tier above where they actually.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Are middle of the pack scheduled in terms of strength
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: of schedule ranking according to Sean Kerner. You can see
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: those at actionnetwork dot com in the Action Network AAP.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: According to PFF, fifth best offensive line in the NFL
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: and I mentioned that Burnwell story on ESPN dot com
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: where he was rating tiers of players who are going
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: to go from Pro Bowlers to Superstars. Three guys on
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: that list AJ Tarrell AJ Terrell, cornerback from the Falcons,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence from the Jags, Piney Sewell, offensive lineman for
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: the Lions. Simon, last year, you were way ahead of
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: the Lions. We were both way ahead of the Lions.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: But one of the reasons you love the Lions last
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: year was because you thought their offensive line was grating
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: so high. And I think you were ahead of the
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: rest of the fandom media punditry on the Lions offensive line.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: But you go into this season as enthusiastic about the Lions.
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely had a blind spot last year at that defense.
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: I was so heavy on the Lions. I just was like, Okay,
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: their defense can just be middle of the back. You mean,
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, they can easily make a playoff run. Unfortunately,
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: they were like thirty thirty two, just bad. So that
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: is the big question this year. It's like, we know
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: there's no value here on this team. Chat We're looking
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: at a team that what was that stead I saw
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: I think it might be the first time they have
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: a sold out season tickets in like thirty forty years.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: It is peak right now, like which blew my mind
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: because that's Stafford Calvin Johnson.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: We need the Lions to do well.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: We need the Lions to do well for our soul
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: because we love the NFL. With Dan Campbell as a
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: head coach, it doesn't.
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: Matter if you have one ass, cheek and three tones,
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: I will beat your rass.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: I think he's brilliant.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: I think he plays against type everyone thinks, oh, tight end, meadhead,
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: muscle guy. I think he is so smart, he knows
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: the game so well. He plays to their strengths. This
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: team got better when he decided a couple years ago
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: to do the play calls really boring game plan, but
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: it fit what they were trying to do. I need
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: this team to do well so Dan Campbell continue to.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Have a job.
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he is football like he when you when someone's like,
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: show me a picture of football, He's one of those
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: guys you would show a picture of like this is
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: what football looks like. This kind of guy. So I'm
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: there with you on that one. On paper, I think
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: it's all there. Their offense is incredible, Like there there
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: will be no shock to anyone that this team will
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: finish in top ten and either rushing or passing yards
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: or anything like that. Like Jared Goff has looked incredible
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: this preseason and their practices that I've seen, right, he
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: is a really good repertoire with this wide receiving corps.
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm on Saint brown Is. I don't know.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: Some people have in pencilan as a top five, top
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: eight wide receiver right now, like they're expecting big things
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: from this team. So you know, I love it. I
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: love that it's all there, Chad. But I think Rich
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: nailed it, Like I got so many questions about their
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: defense still, And I don't love their schedule. I think
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: that the NFL didn't do that many favorites and then
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: in so many weird primetime games just because it's rare.
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: The NFL has had this opportunity to the lines like this
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: is a big market that it is now good they
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: want to take advantage of that. So don't love it, Chad.
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: The nine and a half is a little scary too.
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: I got them in nine and eight, right, I think
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: that's that's a fair number for this team where I
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: do think they're gonna win some games. But Rich also
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: talked about they have a hard schedule, so you know,
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry to damp in Detroit fans. I mean, they
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: don't care. They're all in, they're all hyped up. They're
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: probably be like you guys are Bear Homers anyway. But
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: to me, that's where the value is in this division.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: I think the Bears to me, or the value I
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: think Rich he thought it was Green Bay. You're not
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: gonna hear too many pro say no, no, no, the Lions.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: That's where the value is in this division. Plus one thirty.
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: Come on sports books, this should be plus one seventy
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: plus one eighty. Like, there's just there's no way I
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: think this team is an easy pick to win this division.
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: There's just too many questions on this team. So you know,
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: I won't be ticking the Rover, won't be benning their
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: division odds, won't be ben their Super Bowl odds. But
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: in season I can already tell chev we're definitely gonna
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: be taking this Lion's team. They're gonna have great matchups
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: different points of the year where you know, for four
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: and five, four and six, people are gonna be pissed off.
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: They're gonna be leaving there for dead. That's where me
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: and you step in chat, like those are our favorite
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: teams that people are leaving them for dead when we
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: know the talent's still there, nothing's changed, and we saw
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: last year this team improved every week and that's what
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: you're looking for from their head coach. So sorry, say
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: the Lions fans, You're just you're overvalued right now. Like
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: even you guys know you guys are overvalued right now.
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: So that's the thing. You just got to rain people
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: in here. Like again, we're not shooting. Your team won't
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: be shocked end of the year. If you guys win
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: this division, you are a playoff team. But I just
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: don't think the value is there. So this is a
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: team I will be taking a small bet on their
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: under won't touch any of their divisional odds.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: At this point, Rich, we're living in a world where
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: the Detroit Lions are all of a sudden overvalued.
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: That's the NFC, baby, that's the NFC life. I mean
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: it's hard. You just look at the NFC. It's just
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: the way it is. Man, It's wide open, all right, folks.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: Recap best bets.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Rich likes Green Bay at plus four hundred to win
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: the division. Simon likes Chicago at plus four hundred to
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: win the division and the Bears over. I have also
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: bet heavily on the Bears over, and I have also
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: bet heavily on the Bears when it was one hundred
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl. I will end
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: the podcast with this. Sean Kerner, the most accurate fantasy
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: projectionists between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty one according to
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros top five last year, along with Chris Raybon,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: two of the top five doing projections for an Action network,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: said this about Justin Fields, who is in his Tier
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: two for fantasy quarterbacks, finished QB five in points per
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: game in two with a terrible offense and inconsistent compliments.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: That's me quote the quote from Kerner.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: Better chance of finishing as QB one overall than Justin.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: Herbert or Joe Burrow for fantasy football. For fantasy football, Yeah,
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: fantasy football.
• 46:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: We cover it all here on the Favorites Podcast, which
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: by the way, is proudly presented by Bett three sixty five,
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  Speaker 2: Simon and I want.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: To thank Rich Rebar of Sharp Football Analysis. Go get
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  Speaker 1: You cannot be a serious football fan without getting this book.
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  Speaker 1: For Simon Hunter, I am Chad Millman. This has been
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