Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Survivor Pool | 10/14/25 | Week 6 Recap & Strategy Review

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NFL Survivor Pool | 10/14/25 | Week 6 Recap & Strategy Review · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: We lived on what is going on? Everyone, This is
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: sheets and welcome to the recap of Week six of
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: the NFL Survivor Experience. We're gonna go over kind of
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: what happened in week six, some recommendations that we made,
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: some that have worked out, some that did not, talk
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: about my trip to Vegas a little bit, and set
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: us out and set ourselves up for week seven. First
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: of all, I really appreciate all of the discords, the
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: discourse in discord. Please keep the questions coming. More than
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: happy to answer whatever I can. Again, a little bit
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: of you know, weariness, and I can't really recommend specific
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: plays for specific people for specific entries just because I
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: don't know the whole picture, and so that wouldn't be
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be responsible for me to do that. So first
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: of all, we'll talk a little bit. I actually did
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: go out to Vegas this past weekend with my son.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: We got to play some golf. We played at the
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: Wind on Friday, played at Payut on Saturday, and then
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Sunday we spent the whole day at Circa watching watching
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: the games at Surface Stadium Swim, which is just kind
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: of a ridiculously insane experience. If you have not done
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: that yet, I would fully recommend it. A lot of fun,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: a lot of good bonding time, a little good football,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: a lot of good degenerate gambling, and all healthy, all
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: good stuff. Okay, first of all, what you see here
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: is the tool which is actually already updated for week seven,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: which means I'm not gonna be able to see what
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: week six look like, but I remember, and I'm gonna
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: go back and look at some of the lobbies and
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: splash to remind ourselves of what we did. Now. Again, Also,
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: this map is very you know, it's very fishy. I
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: have to say, I just can't manually override some of
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: the stuff that it's showing for later on in the season.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: So that's why you have to be in the premium
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: show where we go over all that stuff. So first thing,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: single pick pools. As as I remembered, uh I remember,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: as I mentioned last week, I really thought that green
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Bay was a very very solid option. Yes, they were
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: very chalky, they were you know, their EV was their
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: ev was very very strong. It was at one point
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  Speaker 2: one zero. And even though I thought, you know, they
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: knew they were going to be like owned. I still
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  Speaker 2: thought it was it was very very reasonable to play them.
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  Speaker 2: So here's actually the splash is the high stakes one
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  Speaker 2: that I'm in. I mean, I played the Packers. The
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: pick percentage in this tournament was actually pretty along the
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  Speaker 2: lines of what I thought it would be in a
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  Speaker 2: contest like this, and I really didn't like anything else.
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  Speaker 2: As far as single picks, I said the Eagles were
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: were a really bad pick, and they not just they lost,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: they happened to be a really bad pick, and I
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: can't believe ten percent of Iceteak's players played them.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Here.
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  Speaker 2: I also said the Rams were a really, really bad play,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: and I can't believe twelve percent of people picked them.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Survivor is not dead, trust me, very very thriving here.
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  Speaker 2: So as far as single picks goes, it was no
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: sweat really well, okay, did the Begels ever actually have
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: the ball down one possession? I don't think they ever
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: actually got it down one possession, but they're they're feisty,
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  Speaker 2: and the NFL is rough, so I guess all the
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: people that took the Packers did have a little bit
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: to sweat. But at the end of the day that
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: all worked out. Everything was predictable and everybody advanced. I
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: would imagine, I mean, if you went ahead and played
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: the Colts. I thought that was okay. I didn't think
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: it was terrible, as we'll get when we talk about,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: you know, the approach for week seven. I thought it
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  Speaker 2: was probably not great in doubles though, which we're gonna
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: get to in a minute. I thought the Broncos last
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: week was extremely poor play for reasons that we'll get
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  Speaker 2: to when we discussed this coming week. Not to say
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  Speaker 2: that Broncos are a great play this week. Maybe they are.
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  Speaker 2: We'll get to that tomorrow. So the majority of the discussion,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: which I kind of like, was centered around the double
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: pick stuff because that's where all the big, the big
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: money is coming from on Splash right now. And it's
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: a very very you know, very high volatility type of
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  Speaker 2: survivor contest, and I think it's really good exercise to
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: learn how to play those. So that's why we really
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  Speaker 2: segment these types of pools where you're going to need
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  Speaker 2: to make double in weeks eleven and beyond or maybe
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: weeks twelve and beyond, and playing those types of pools
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  Speaker 2: really really trained you how to read this map, you know,
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  Speaker 2: and really trained you how to really think about survivor
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  Speaker 2: pools and what's really important. So for those I identified
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  Speaker 2: several things. Number One, I didn't like the Packers at
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  Speaker 2: all in doubles. Okay, I said, I wasn't going to
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  Speaker 2: play a share of them, And I did not the Colts.
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  Speaker 2: I didn't like them at doubles at all, didn't play
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  Speaker 2: a share of them. I thought the Rams were an
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  Speaker 2: atrocious play in doubles. The the I thought the Broncos
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  Speaker 2: were actually okay in doubles. I thought just because the
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  Speaker 2: majority of their value was going to be coming in singles.
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  Speaker 2: That's what we talked about. But the three teams that
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: I really focused on were were the Steelers, the Raiders,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: and the and the Commanders. Okay, I thought those three
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  Speaker 2: were really the only teams that I would have recommended
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  Speaker 2: in double pick pools, in pools where you need to
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  Speaker 2: make doubles later, just because of the way that the
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  Speaker 2: future values of all three of those teams kind of
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: played out. And Las Vegas advanced really easily, Pittsburgh advanced
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  Speaker 2: really easily, and unfortunately Washington, who was the lowest owned
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: of all of them, they choked at the end. I
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: mean they really had that game wrapped up, and Jaden
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  Speaker 2: Daniels was, you know, one more first down it was
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  Speaker 2: over even not I mean even they kick the field
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  Speaker 2: goal and it was probably it would have been like
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  Speaker 2: eighty percent to win. And on third and whatever one
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  Speaker 2: they fumbled the ball and Chicago came down and won
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  Speaker 2: the game. So that was that was unfortunate. I really
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: wanted all the three speculative double plays to go through,
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: but again again the NFL gods did not really care
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  Speaker 2: what I want. But overall, I mean, obviously, if you
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: had the Raiders, I mean and you you know you
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: played a bunch of that, you really really did well.
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  Speaker 2: Now again it doesn't seem that way because only ten
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  Speaker 2: percent of the pool really got ten percent of the
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: pools kind of got knocked out. Even if you look
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: at the ship in Nation Pool where I guess some
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: people are listening for what we're saying here, and we
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: did it. Eleven percent played the Steelers and ten percent
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: played the Raiders. Even still, I mean you you saved
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: like all of these teams for doubles, and that is
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: extraordinary value. Okay, you might not ever realize it. I mean,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: like when I said realize, might realize that value ever,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: but you're setting yourself up to realize it, and that's
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: the most important thing. So doubles again. Steelers Raiders very
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: as strong I thought. And I didn't like anybody else
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: for a cent, and I didn't play anybody else for
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: a cent. That was the end of that. I well,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: I guess I'll update you on something else. I mean,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: I do have three entries in the big Circa Survivor
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: contest out there, and they're very, very strong entries. And
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: as we get, you know, as we get a little
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: bit further down, I could start talking about those that
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit, because I really don't think that anybody
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: in this group is in the surface survivor. So I'm
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: not like giving away my edge or anything like that.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: And I don't even think it matters at some point,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: because at some point, your your path is your path,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: and no one can really do anything about it. And
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: even if somebody knew exactly what I was playing, really
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: wouldn't hurt me all that much. Anyway. We'll talk about
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: this another time. But it's also in a weird way,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: it's an advantage to actually tell people who you're playing.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: Is when you tell people who you're playing. Then what
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: if you're making say like the best highest EV play,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: then it actually it encourages the other the people listening
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  Speaker 2: to you to not play them because if if they
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: copy you, they're costing themselves EV. So if you kind
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: of like lock in and claim a team as yours
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: and tell people that's what you're doing, you're actually increasing
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: your your EV presuming that everybody plays optimally and they
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: wouldn't play the same thing that you did. That's for
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: that's for another discussion, just for fun, a couple of things.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Let's let's let's let's review even that that that map
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: or even that path that I promised you that you
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: could use to kind of get to the end. Okay,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: and I'll even I mean single picks. It's like a
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: piece of cake. And what's weird about it is that
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: and yet still you probably haven't been a one percent
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: chance of getting there. But like, for example, if you've
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: been using some of the stuff that we've talked about,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: you know it got passed last week. You know week
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: seven you could play even like not to get fancy,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: let's just say you play Kansas City then week eight.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: See this Bengals thing doesn't really exist. Week eight, let's
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: say you played the Colts. They're gonna be probably might
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: have seven against Tennessee. We'll talk about that another time,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: and then we saved the Rams for week nine. Say
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: we used the Packers. It's fine, so we use the
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Rams in nine. Week ten, we can use the Broncos.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Week eleven, we could use well, presuming what's the Ravens.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: If they're act together, we can play them. Patriots are
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: probably pretty good. In eleven nowadays agains the Jets. Week twelve,
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: we can play the Lions. They'll be a big favorite
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: over the Giants. Week thirteen, we haven't used Philly yet.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: We could play them as the biggest favorite on Thanksgiving,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: you play the Chargers. I mean, either of those things
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: work Week fourteen. Tampa's a lot. Week fifteen, San Francisco
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: biggest favor over Tennessee. Who's hopeless. Week sixteen, we can't
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: use Buffalo yet. Let's use them as the top choice.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Week seventeen, there's Washington, they're the top favorite. You can
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: use them in the week eighteen. I mean, you make
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: take your pick, really Atlanta, maybe Almogus, New Orleans. So
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: you can even look through this and see that there
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: are very easy paths to get there, and which is
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: kind of funny because and yet you probably have a
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: one percent chance of doing it. That's okay, it's okay.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: The idea is that is that you do want to
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: get all the way, you have to get all the
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: way to the end and do it in a highly
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: leveraged way. So we will talk about that. Let's take
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: you want to a quick look. We'll refresh this real
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: fast and see what at least the EV looks nice.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: So again, if you're you know, in the premium subscriber,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: you'll get access to this tool where you can you
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: could not only calculate the EV but if you think
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: that you're popularities in your pools are different, or you
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: know you want to change the win percentages for some reason,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: then you know you could do that and recalculate the evs.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: So when you look at this right away, I mean,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: you're going to see that the top EV team, even
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: though Kansas City is the top favorite team, if you
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: just look at them, a EV Denver would be the
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: top team because they have Denver as being five what
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: three percent owns? Okay, And I mean it leads me
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: toablelea how could Denver really only be three percent owned
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: a spotlight this so we'll talk about that. But I
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: really thought that Denver was going to be a h
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: a little higher on this past week, and nobody played them.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: And then you have green Bay. Green Bay is an
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: interesting case because they're they're high ev not because they
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: are such a huge favorite, just because nobody has them, right,
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: because they all use them this past week. So this
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: is what one of the things that you could do.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: You save green Bay, you know, maybe you get to
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: use them here. Kansas City again biggest, biggest favorite, but
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: they're super chalky, right, that's the red, that's the projection,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: at least as of now. And this is probably this
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: is admittedly single pickpool stuff, right. And then you have
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: the real hipster play of the week, which you'll talk me.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: And you have New England. New England all of a
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: sudden is the nuts and they are now gonna be
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: playing the lowly Titans. So not to mention Luke Ray
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: and not Luke Rabel, like Rabel going back to play
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: this old team whatever that means. So there there are
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: things to talk about. And you have those always those
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: bow wow teams that we love to play. The some
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: one EV type teams. We'll talk about all that stuff,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: but again, you know the purposes of these The purpose
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: of these lectures in this program is to teach you
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: guys how to do this stuff yourself, because right everybody's
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: path is different, everybody's selection pool is different. So I'm
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: gonna go through who my favorite plays, but it's gonna
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: come to a point where I'm like, Okay, I like this,
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: and you'd be like, well, I don't have that, you
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. So you're gonna have to learn
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: how to balance these evs and future values for yourself
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: and learn how to read these maps and know when
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: to adjust yourself. And that's hopefully what I teach you guys,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: specifically that in that premium thing tomorrow. So I guess
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: that's pretty much it. I will be here again four
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: pm tomorrow to make heads or tails of all this.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: Feel free to ask whatever questions you have in the
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: discord channel and I will address those tomorrow at four
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: pm along with whatever else. So that is going to
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: do it. Good luck. Everybody had.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: Also mother as step mother, and then sad and s
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: mother like buns.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Music and mother and sets
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: And sa