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THIS CRASH Could Be WORSE Than 2008 (Will Bitcoin Survive?) | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  The Dow to gold ratio is about to break a line.
• 0:03
  It's only crossed before 19/29/1973 and 2008.
• 0:08
  The last three times it marked the start of an 18 month
• 0:11
  recession or worse, a depression.
• 0:14
  Is 2025 next or have we just entered the crash that rewards
• 0:19
  those holding hard money? Gold just ripped to fresh all
• 0:23
  time highs printing above $4200 an ounce and silver punched
• 0:28
  through 50 bucks. That's it's not inflation go
• 0:31
  Burr. That's confidence cracking.
• 0:33
  Markets are now baking in another rate cut this month and
• 0:37
  cuts don't print trust, they print Bitcoin rocket fuel.
• 0:47
  Here we go. When this ratio dives, history
• 0:51
  says capital is running downhill from complex levered paper
• 0:54
  claims to hard money you can actually hold.
• 0:58
  And this cycle is obviously weird.
• 1:00
  Stocks up, gold exploding. That combination is rare.
• 1:04
  Optimism hedged with fear. Maybe everyone is stuck fighting
• 1:08
  the last war and they don't realize what's really happening.
• 1:12
  And the big take away is this. Most people are stuck fighting
• 1:16
  the last war, right? And in our case, that means most
• 1:19
  people are expecting a market crash like we had in 2008.
• 1:22
  That's the last war. Maybe they're looking at 2000 or
• 1:25
  whichever period that you want to look at, but those were
• 1:28
  different. Those were deflationary crashes,
• 1:31
  a housing market crash, a credit bubble crash, a stock market
• 1:35
  crash. But when these markets crashed,
• 1:38
  we saw stocks drop right by more than 50%, home prices, they
• 1:41
  collapsed 30 to 50%. Banks failed, unemployment
• 1:45
  skyrocketed. That's what happened.
• 1:47
  And as painful as that was, on the other side of all that, we
• 1:51
  saw huge growth, right, because the crash was sort of like a
• 1:54
  reset button after the crash, if you still have cash, you could
• 1:58
  get back in, right? You could buy that home, you
• 2:00
  could buy the stocks much cheaper, and then you could ride
• 2:02
  their recovery back up. It's actually the perfect setup
• 2:05
  because guess what, if the bubble is in money and
• 2:08
  treasuries prices don't come down to you, it runs away from
• 2:12
  cash. Now these companies, they feel
• 2:14
  safer, right than holding dollars.
• 2:16
  So people pour money into them as sort of like this pseudo safe
• 2:20
  haven, right? Then you can look at like other
• 2:22
  areas like the crypto NFT market, especially like crypto
• 2:25
  punks, right? People are spending serious
• 2:28
  money on digital avatars. Like what?
• 2:31
  Why? Well, the reason is because when
• 2:33
  the underlying currency feels unsafe, then you're willing to
• 2:37
  just basically leap into anything that gives some sense
• 2:40
  of scarcity and value outside of Fiat.
• 2:43
  And then of course, there's Bitcoin and gold, right?
• 2:46
  The main beneficiaries of capital flight right now.
• 2:48
  Today, we just looked at how bitcoins up 185%, right?
• 2:52
  That's since December of 2023. Gold's up 95%.
• 2:56
  Now, the fact that these digital and metallic safe havens have
• 2:59
  outperformed the bulk of traditional assets isn't an
• 3:02
  accident, right? On chain flows confirm this.
• 3:05
  The massive inflows into Bitcoin are often predictive of future
• 3:10
  returns. Listen, when the foundation is
• 3:13
  the bubble, everything built on top, Stocks, pensions, salaries,
• 3:19
  they all become unstable. That's why this time can be
• 3:22
  worse, even if it doesn't look like 2008.
• 3:25
  Right. It's in the one place that
• 3:26
  everyone thinks is safe. It's government bonds and in the
• 3:29
  dollar itself. Now think about it. the US
• 3:32
  Treasury are supposed to be the safest asset in the world.
• 3:35
  The dollar. It's the foundation of global
• 3:37
  trade. But today both are being
• 3:40
  inflated by trillions of dollars in new debt and endless central
• 3:44
  bank printing. The US government is borrowing
• 3:46
  over 2 trillion a year just to stay afloat.
• 3:50
  And the only buyers that are left are the Fed and passive
• 3:53
  flows that are forced into Treasuries by regulation.
• 3:56
  Now, there's a recent report that came out by Amir McCann
• 3:59
  Research and they put it bluntly.
• 4:01
  They said, quote, the current bubble is not like 2008, which
• 4:05
  was a credit bubble. It's a currency and treasury
• 4:08
  bond bubble. And when the foundation of the
• 4:10
  entire financial system is the bubble, then everything built on
• 4:14
  top of it, Stocks, pensions, real estate, even the paycheck
• 4:18
  becomes unstable. End Quote.
• 4:21
  This is why I'm saying this crash is going to be worse than
• 4:23
  2008. Here's the nuance nobody wants
• 4:26
  to hear Gold up while oil crashes isn't classic 70s
• 4:30
  stagflation. It smells like a dollar funding
• 4:33
  squeeze in the pipes and engineered insolvency rolling
• 4:37
  through balance sheets. It's possible tariffs plus tight
• 4:41
  liquidity can push a deflationary debt spiral even as
• 4:44
  headline inflation lingers. That's how you get gold moaning
• 4:48
  with growth wobbly. The historical rhyme here isn't
• 4:52
  the 70s oil shock, it's the trust shock.
• 4:55
  We can pull up the chart of gold priced in Bitcoin.
• 4:59
  This set off an absolute firestorm.
• 5:01
  So just so we're clear, I like gold.
• 5:04
  I understand why people own gold.
• 5:05
  I think of the gold bugs and the Bitcoiners is brothers in arms
• 5:09
  against the fight against currency debasement.
• 5:11
  I'm sympathetic to their 'cause I think they're sympathetic to
• 5:14
  our 'cause I have a lot of friends who own gold.
• 5:17
  I'm not a gold hater, but I'm also somebody say a math guy.
• 5:22
  I like looking at the data. And so over the weekend I
• 5:25
  messaged Phil and I said, hey, Phil, can you can you create a
• 5:28
  chart of gold priced in Bitcoin? And I knew that the gold bugs
• 5:33
  were not going to like it, but I thought it was an important
• 5:34
  contribution to the public conversation.
• 5:37
  So Phil cooked in the lab made-up chart.
• 5:40
  I tweeted it and I said gold has been a disastrous investment.
• 5:43
  I think disastrous investment probably got people a little
• 5:46
  upset. That's OK, It's true.
• 5:48
  Priced in Bitcoin, gold is down 84% since January of 2020.
• 5:53
  So if you compare that the S&P is down 88% priced in Bitcoin
• 5:58
  since 2020, that's pretty much no difference right now.
• 6:01
  Gold, yes, in dollar terms is up a lot.
• 6:03
  It's up 50% this year, but it was pretty much flat through a
• 6:07
  number of those early years of 2020 till today.
• 6:10
  And so my point being that gold still has some inflation to it,
• 6:15
  and Bitcoin is a finite asset. That finite asset, yes, there is
• 6:19
  this disinflationary supply, but Bitcoin is actually the
• 6:23
  measurement stick. It's the Bitcoin rate of return.
• 6:25
  So gold's Bitcoin rate of return is negative by -84% So if you
• 6:30
  are an investor, has gold done well?
• 6:32
  Sure. So if you had an apparatus of
• 6:34
  assets to choose from, you put stocks, bonds, real estate,
• 6:37
  gold, gold's done very well. But if you then add in Bitcoin,
• 6:40
  you pretty much didn't need any of the other assets.
• 6:43
  Bitcoin was the dominant 1. So a lot of people say we'll
• 6:46
  just buy both. Well, that is kind of like a
• 6:48
  safe answer, right? It's kind of like, oh, put 1%,
• 6:52
  put 1%, right? But in reality, the data is
• 6:55
  overwhelming. Bitcoin destroys gold in terms
• 6:58
  of a return. If you denominate gold and
• 7:00
  Bitcoin, it, it loses tons of it's purchasing power.
• 7:02
  Doesn't mean that you should go and buy only Bitcoin.
• 7:05
  I understand why people still might want to buy gold, right?
• 7:08
  There's all kinds of things around draw down protections,
• 7:10
  all those kind of stuff. But if you are purely looking
• 7:13
  for which one is going to outperform on a return basis,
• 7:16
  Bitcoin first gold. It's not even close.
• 7:18
  Central bank, Sprint to gold, not to get rich.
• 7:22
  They're they're sprinting because Fiat is dying.
• 7:25
  I believe that the single biggest issue, if you can
• 7:28
  correct this one issue, it will have a profound impact on
• 7:30
  people's lives around the globe, is if you can basically stop the
• 7:33
  debasement of the currency. If you can stop that, then all
• 7:36
  of a sudden now what you do is you stop the silent theft and
• 7:39
  now you allow people to actually keep the economic value that
• 7:41
  they've worked hard to earn. And so Bitcoin to me is the
• 7:45
  solution to that problem. There's kind of this, this
• 7:47
  heuristic of people have been complaining about this for
• 7:50
  decades, centuries, right? If you go back through all these
• 7:53
  societies, Bitcoin is the first technology solution to the
• 7:55
  problem. And so I think that that is a
• 7:57
  very profound solution that is going to have an impact that we
• 8:01
  quite don't understand yet, frankly, right?
• 8:03
  So I think that's one big problem.
• 8:04
  The second problem that I'm very interested in is this idea of
• 8:07
  the little guy or the cortical retail investor being able to
• 8:11
  get a level playing field against these large
• 8:13
  institutions. And I think that those two
• 8:16
  issues are very interrelated because now what we know in this
• 8:19
  country is you can't be a saver. You need to be an investor, as
• 8:21
  these retail folks realize, have to become an investor.
• 8:24
  They need access to information, they need access to the market.
• 8:26
  So that's my focus. That's where I I think I'm most
• 8:28
  passionate about. That's what I'm most
• 8:29
  intellectually stimulated by. Old rings the alarm and Bitcoin
• 8:34
  builds the exit. When confidence cracks, capital
• 8:37
  doesn't disappear. It retreats from complexity to
• 8:41
  simplicity, from paper to hard assets.
• 8:43
  Cash first, then gold and silver.
• 8:46
  And in the digital age, Bitcoin sits right beside them for
• 8:49
  portability and self custody. By the way, it's interesting
• 8:52
  what you say, the fact that for the regular guys that are
• 8:55
  trading after hours are like, what do I mess with now?
• 8:58
  They don't have access to anything.
• 8:59
  They don't have access to anything.
• 9:00
  What they do with crypto, you can track what Bitcoin's doing.
• 9:03
  Gold, gold's closed, stocks are closed, bonds are closed,
• 9:06
  everything is closed. Now here's The thing is Trump on
• 9:08
  Sunday night, you know, I I posted this this meme, it's like
• 9:11
  abracadabra make the markets go back up right And what does he
• 9:14
  do? He tweets out an hour and a half
• 9:15
  before a futures open on Sunday night.
• 9:17
  Like the guy knows what he's doing and so that you know that
• 9:19
  that's fine, understand that. But I think the bigger thing
• 9:21
  about crypto and Bitcoin in particular is if you sold your
• 9:25
  Bitcoin because of geopolitical uncertainty, you had no clue
• 9:29
  what you were holding. The whole point of Bitcoin it is
• 9:31
  that it is a non sovereign asset.
• 9:33
  It is supposed to be the safe haven that you can go and hold
• 9:36
  regardless what any government in the world does.
• 9:38
  And so I think that's part of what people are trying to figure
• 9:40
  out now is the hardcore bit corners.
• 9:42
  They know that they're looking to buy on dips, but you still
• 9:45
  get tons of new people who come in and obviously leverage plays
• 9:49
  a huge part of this. And so the big story over the
• 9:51
  weekend was there was $19 billion of leverage that got
• 9:53
  wiped out. Now you can look at that as how
• 9:55
  the prices went down. The way I look at it is we just
• 9:58
  reset the entire leverage in the system and therefore that
• 10:01
  probably clears us so that we can go higher.
• 10:03
  Say that again non sovereign, and that word matters now more
• 10:08
  than ever. So what does the policy in game
• 10:10
  look like when no one wants long duration dollars and the
• 10:13
  treasury still has a tab to pay? Oh man, we have absolute heat
• 10:17
  coming from Luke Groman. He's about to blow your mind.
• 10:20
  But before we we bring it home, look at our likes 3 or 4 times.
• 10:23
  Maybe I'll pump those numbers up.
• 10:25
  Those are rookie numbers in this racket.
• 10:27
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  What Bitcoin did, I would have guessed it'd have been a couple
• 11:17
  of years ago and we were talking about inflation coming back in.
• 11:21
  In fact, I think it was when inflation was still relatively
• 11:22
  high. But you said that it's not a
• 11:25
  zero percent chance of it goes like 4050% inflation.
• 11:29
  Do you still think that's on the cards?
• 11:32
  I think only, I think there's still a risk of it for some
• 11:39
  period of time simply because of the level of debt in the system.
• 11:45
  You know, all the great inflations that you see are not
• 11:47
  because, oops, the central bank was too loose and the economy
• 11:51
  ran too hot and inflation suddenly went to 40 or 50.
• 11:53
  That's not how it works. It's the, the great inflations
• 11:57
  are we have debt to GDP of 120% and our foreign creditors are
• 12:02
  not buying our debt like they were either at all or certainly
• 12:07
  relative to the new deficits. And our deficits are 6 to 7% of
• 12:10
  GDP. And then we have some sort of
• 12:13
  crisis. And when we have the crisis,
• 12:18
  receipts fall interest. Interest, you know, doesn't
• 12:21
  fall. Foreigners sell bonds to get
• 12:23
  liquid, and rates start going up in your crisis.
• 12:25
  And you go into a debt spiral because of the level of your
• 12:28
  debt, level of your secular deficits.
• 12:30
  And then the central bank and the government faces a choice,
• 12:33
  which is simply, do we stand aside and default on our
• 12:36
  applications or do we print money to keep our debt nominally
• 12:41
  money good. And it's those times when
• 12:44
  governments are printing money to keep their debt nominally
• 12:47
  money good, that we've seen the greatest inflations in history.
• 12:50
  And and of course, the numbers I just laid out were the numbers
• 12:53
  of the United States. And so, yeah.
• 12:57
  Is it possible? Sure.
• 12:58
  Is my base case? No.
• 13:02
  But it would depend on events. It would, you know, if we get a
• 13:06
  crisis, we get a recession where receipts start to fall, GDP
• 13:11
  starts to fall, GDP falling with with debt to GDP and deficits
• 13:18
  where they are structural deficits.
• 13:19
  You don't. You, you, you.
• 13:22
  It's not a policy option. You have you.
• 13:25
  Have Yeah, you, you start to see and, you know, importantly,
• 13:29
  we've seen hints of this. We even saw it earlier this year
• 13:33
  where, if you remember, part of the plan, right, we're going to
• 13:36
  do austerity and we're going to doge and we're going to we're
• 13:39
  going to take some pain and we're going to best is going to
• 13:42
  scare stocks into bonds and he's going to get the 10 year down
• 13:45
  judges by the 10 year judges by the 10 year.
• 13:48
  I think this was February, He said this.
• 13:52
  And then we do we start moving toward we we weren't even in
• 13:54
  deliberation day yet. We were just into March and
• 14:00
  stocks going down 10 yields going down.
• 14:02
  So far so good. And like 10 days in, all of a
• 14:04
  sudden stocks keep going down, 10 yields starts going up and
• 14:08
  keeps going up, keeps going up. And then we do liberation day
• 14:11
  and it like comes down for a cup of coffee and then takes off
• 14:14
  like a scalded cat higher. This is emerging market with a
• 14:21
  fiscal crisis having a recession, trading action.
• 14:24
  Translation When buyers vanish, the market forces the Fed and
• 14:28
  Treasury to choose inflation over a cascading default,
• 14:32
  regardless of however they decide to rebrand.
• 14:35
  It all the QE inflation that that was, you know the although
• 14:39
  there was feared and never arrived.
• 14:41
  Just come in. Like a freight train as as our
• 14:43
  friend Lynnwood say so like and again, this was always in the
• 14:49
  cake. There is no like the math is the
• 14:51
  math and that's why I say the events like you need to, you
• 14:58
  need to protect yourself like this.
• 15:00
  You know, we all enjoyed the party, you know, whether we
• 15:04
  voted for it or not, right? You know, your boomers and and
• 15:08
  silent generation are getting 70% of record tax receipts and
• 15:12
  entitlements. And yes, they did pay into that.
• 15:14
  They didn't pay that much for it all.
• 15:16
  You know, there's been inflation of services, etcetera.
• 15:18
  They're they're taking out more than they put in.
• 15:21
  That's why it doesn't are what they are.
• 15:23
  And oh, by the way, our politicians spent their money
• 15:26
  as, as they put it in, they're spending our money.
• 15:29
  So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's somewhat cliche, like, hey, you
• 15:33
  need to go on Bitcoin, but like you need to go on a Bitcoin.
• 15:36
  We're in that part of the cycle. It just is what it is.
• 15:39
  And I hope, you know, after it's over, then, you know, I can
• 15:41
  leave a note in my will for my grandkids or great grandkids and
• 15:45
  say, listen, there's going to come a time around, you know,
• 15:47
  20, 85 and you're going to, you know, you're going to want to
• 15:52
  start buying some, some, some gold again.
• 15:55
  And I'll be done with it for, for, for the rest of my life.
• 15:57
  And, you know, it's just, it's the arc, you know, that's all it
• 16:00
  is, you know, gold and Bitcoin is just the arc to get you
• 16:03
  through this monetary storm, this monetary flood.
• 16:06
  And I write about a lot more because that's what's, you know,
• 16:13
  that's what's happening. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's
• 16:16
  accelerating. Like, you know, I'm the water's
• 16:17
  up to my knees and I'm still coming in.
• 16:19
  It's like, well OK, get busy building the heart faster.
• 16:23
  Gold is the alarm. Bitcoin is the ark in
• 16:26
  19/29/1973. In 2008, the ratio warned before
• 16:31
  the narrative did 2025 rhymes. But this time we have Bitcoin.
• 16:35
  Gold is telling us the house is on fire, that the flood is
• 16:38
  coming. Well, Bitcoin is the fire escape
• 16:40
  or the ark, whichever you prefer.
• 16:42
  But stack smart custody, right? And remember up only as Max
• 16:46
  Payne when the herd is still in denial.
• 16:49
  Oh, and hey, do you know where you'll be able to find people
• 16:51
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• 17:20
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  to you daily Dante Sophie oceans they get a lot coming your way
• 17:32
  so stay tuned. Hey, I love you guys.
• 17:34
  See you Monday. If you.
• 17:37
  Prefer to go down with the ship.