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Will 'Islamic Nato' protect Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. I'm
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  Speaker 1: Silly Hatton and today I'm joined by our global analyst,
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  Speaker 1: Embarrassing Atarajan. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have signed a
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  Speaker 1: mutual defense pact described by some as NATO for the
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  Speaker 1: Islamic world, so embarrassing. Just briefly, what does this agreement entail?
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  Speaker 2: The Mecca Joints Defense Agreement is important both in terms
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  Speaker 2: of substance as well as symbolism. Now, in terms of substance,
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  Speaker 2: it brings together three countries with the different military and
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  Speaker 2: financial capacities coming together. In terms of symbolism, it was
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  Speaker 2: signed in the Holy City of Mecca. Now, what it
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  Speaker 2: talks about is a military cooperation between Saudi Arabia, Turkey
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  Speaker 2: and Pakistan, and the various leaders have been giving out
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  Speaker 2: information on what areas like logistics, military training and sharing
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  Speaker 2: of intelligence and also counter terrorism operations. But the key
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  Speaker 2: thing is it's up like the Article five of NATU.
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  Speaker 2: That is, any attack on one country will be treated
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  Speaker 2: as an attack on all. That is what gained a
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  Speaker 2: lot of traction and what many people see this as
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  Speaker 2: a substitute or a backup plan instead of having US
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  Speaker 2: as the net security guarantee in the Middle East. Now,
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  Speaker 2: these three countries are trying together and form a Plan
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  Speaker 2: B in case of any future conflict in the Middle East.
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  Speaker 2: That's how it is being seen. Of course, there are
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  Speaker 2: many people who disagree with that.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, some people might question this and say, well,
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  Speaker 1: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already signed a mutual defense treaty
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  Speaker 1: last year, so why sign another one and bring Turkey
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  Speaker 1: into the mix. Why is this happening now?
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  Speaker 2: The Pakistan Saudi Arabia agreement is something similar which was
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  Speaker 2: signed last year. Now what the Pakistani Foreign Minister ishak
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  Speaker 2: That was talking about it was more of an expansion
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  Speaker 2: of what happened last year. The agreement between Pakistan and
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  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia. Now, what it does is Turkey a country
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  Speaker 2: which has got very good defense industry technology in terms
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  Speaker 2: of drones, loitering, munitions and shells and missiles. And Saudi
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  Speaker 2: is one of the largest suppliers of fuel petroleum products
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  Speaker 2: to various countries with the financial muscle power. And then
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  Speaker 2: Pakistan which has a big military and also the nuclear arsenal,
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  Speaker 2: so the three countries. In fact, Turkey is the second
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  Speaker 2: biggest military in NATO. So these three countries are coming together. Now,
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  Speaker 2: how do you see this? Is it a counter to
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  Speaker 2: Iran and Israel? Because Turkey is also having problem with Israel.
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  Speaker 2: In the aftermath of Gaza and what happened in the
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  Speaker 2: last few months, why the US could not completely gain
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  Speaker 2: a superiority over Iran. So whereas many countries like Saudi Arabia,
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  Speaker 2: Bahrain and Kwat, many Gulf countries came under attack and
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  Speaker 2: those attacks on oil installations civilian facilities could not be
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  Speaker 2: stopped by the US military might. And that is why
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  Speaker 2: they think a Plan B can provide them some security
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  Speaker 2: and also looking at in the long term interest, for example,
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  Speaker 2: Turkey's relations with Israel. We don't know how this is
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  Speaker 2: going to pan out in the future. And Saudi Arabia
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  Speaker 2: thinks that in the long run, ten years down the line,
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  Speaker 2: how Iran will develop its military capabilities because even now
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  Speaker 2: they are still able to fire back, hit back at
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  Speaker 2: many targets in the Gulf. That's why Saudi Arabia needs
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  Speaker 2: it's In fact, it is more of Soudi Arabia wanting
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  Speaker 2: security than the other two countries because it has got
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  Speaker 2: the financial muscle. It gives billions of dollars in terms
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  Speaker 2: of loan or parking the money in the Pakistani banks
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  Speaker 2: to stabilize the economy. And the same time it also imports,
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  Speaker 2: for example, drones from Turkey, so it is using its
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  Speaker 2: financial muscle as well as its strategic location. You know,
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  Speaker 2: it has got long cost one side on the Gulf,
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  Speaker 2: on the other side on the Red Sea, so it
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  Speaker 2: is using its geographical location also to bring this new
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  Speaker 2: security architecture. But many would say it will take years
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  Speaker 2: even if they want any type of military integration something
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  Speaker 2: on the basis of NATO.
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  Speaker 1: You've underlined the logic behind this pact, why each country
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  Speaker 1: has decided to buy into this agreement. But as you said,
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  Speaker 1: a lot of skepticism has been raised, many questioning how
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  Speaker 1: solid this pact can possibly be. We've already seen it
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  Speaker 1: be challenged. It was only signed a few days ago,
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  Speaker 1: and already just in the last few days, we've seen
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  Speaker 1: the Iran backed Khuthis in Yemen. They've struck a Saudi
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  Speaker 1: oil refinery and they've also targeted Saudi backed forces in Yemen.
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  Speaker 1: So should we really expect Pakistan or Turkey to step
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  Speaker 1: in to defend Saudi Arabia? Just days after this agreement
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  Speaker 1: was first agreed to.
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  Speaker 2: There are a lot of skepticism about this agreement. First
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  Speaker 2: and foremost, many experts agree that whether it can replace
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  Speaker 2: the United States as a net security guarante, no, because
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  Speaker 2: not in the immediate future. And whether this agreement can
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  Speaker 2: be signed without the TACIT approval of Washington, many people
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  Speaker 2: doubt that. But what it allows the US is to
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  Speaker 2: somewhat outsource some of the capacities to the regional blocks
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  Speaker 2: something like this. Now, even if they want to integrate
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  Speaker 2: or if you want to exchange troops, it's not going
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  Speaker 2: to be easy given that three different security apparatus. Like
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  Speaker 2: Turkey has got NATO already embedded with NATO, Pakistan has
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  Speaker 2: got a lot of Chinese equipment, so combining them is
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  Speaker 2: not going to be an easy task now if it
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  Speaker 2: comes to whether attack on one will be treated as an
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  Speaker 2: attack on all. So, even though despite the Saudi Pakistan agreement,
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  Speaker 2: even though Pakistan provided troops support some ad defense mechanism
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  Speaker 2: in Saudi Arabia's war against the Huthi rebels, it did
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  Speaker 2: not give full fledged help to Saudi Arabia. And second,
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  Speaker 2: if you see the Saudi was attacked by Iran then
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  Speaker 2: Pakistan did not come in support of Saudi Arabia because
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  Speaker 2: Pakistan Shif's border with your own. So there are technical
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  Speaker 2: issues and in the long run, what happens if Turkey
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  Speaker 2: gets into conflict with the Greece or with the Israel.
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  Speaker 2: So people are really questioning how far it is going
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  Speaker 2: to be practical. But what it gives them is another
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  Speaker 2: kind of security architecture where they can help each other.
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  Speaker 2: They're sending out. That's why one of the leaders was
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  Speaker 2: talking about it is more of collective deterrence. It is
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  Speaker 2: more for peace, not against any specific country. They won't
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  Speaker 2: insist on that, but there are practical issues. You know,
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  Speaker 2: if you look at the number of US troops in
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  Speaker 2: the region, tens of thousands, number of bases in Qatar,
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  Speaker 2: in ue in South Arabia. Can they be replaced by
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  Speaker 2: these three countries, No, they can't be replaced in US.
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  Speaker 2: With this military and economic mind, it is going to
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  Speaker 2: be there. But this gives these countries an opportunity to
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  Speaker 2: tell the world in a way of forming this because
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  Speaker 2: the Gulf, the economic possibilities and the oil is very
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  Speaker 2: important for that economies for the Gulf countries, So they
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  Speaker 2: want to have a Plan B and they want to
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  Speaker 2: expand it later on, maybe to Egypt, to Qatar. That's
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  Speaker 2: why many people call whether it could be a Muslim nator,
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  Speaker 2: even though there is no suggestion in using the term,
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  Speaker 2: but they are looking at it as Muslim countries coming together.
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  Speaker 1: Pakistan has played a really interesting role in the global
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  Speaker 1: community in the past few months. First, it's acting as
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  Speaker 1: a mediator in the conflict between the US and Iran,
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  Speaker 1: and it's really stepped up to the front and that.
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  Speaker 1: But at the same time, it's signing a defense agreement
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  Speaker 1: with Saudi Arabia and Turkey when Saudi Arabia has received
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  Speaker 1: some missile strikes from Iran. So how is it playing
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  Speaker 1: these two roles at the same time.
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  Speaker 2: See, Pakistan wants to show that it is impactful, it
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  Speaker 2: will be useful and a key strategic player because it
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  Speaker 2: has got a lot of interest in the Gulf region
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  Speaker 2: because it imports energy resources. And also millions of Pakistanis
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  Speaker 2: work in Saudi Arabia and other countries from where they
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  Speaker 2: get to ten billion dollars in remittances. Now, if you've
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  Speaker 2: see in the last one year how the Trump administration
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  Speaker 2: has gotten close to Pakistani authorities, that's very interesting. In fact,
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  Speaker 2: President Trump called Field Marshal Assimuni as my favorite Field Marshal.
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  Speaker 2: You know, he was using the Pakistani leaders to send
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  Speaker 2: messages to Iran. Now, why Pakistan, Because Pakistan shares border
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  Speaker 2: with Iran. These countries, they share a lot of relations,
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  Speaker 2: and at the same time, there is no other country
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  Speaker 2: which can deal directly with Iran in the Gulf region
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  Speaker 2: at the moment. But Pakistan also wants to show that
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  Speaker 2: it has got diplomatic maneuverbility to go and talk to Iran.
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  Speaker 2: But at the same time it has got limitations. Now
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  Speaker 2: by signing this agreement with Saudi Arabia, people are as
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  Speaker 2: you say, questioning, you are signing an agreement which is
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  Speaker 2: in a way seen as a counter to Iran. So
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  Speaker 2: your participation as a mediator comes into question. But that's
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  Speaker 2: why these countries are repeatedly interesting. You know, it is
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  Speaker 2: not against any particular country, this new alliance, but in
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  Speaker 2: the long run, if there is any tension, Pakistan's role
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  Speaker 2: will be questions. But then again, how the Trump administration
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  Speaker 2: is going to use Pakistan once there is a deal
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  Speaker 2: with Iran. You know, with the US was criticizing Pakistan
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  Speaker 2: not long ago because of the presence of alleged militant
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  Speaker 2: groups and how Pakistan is treating these groups. And tomorrow,
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  Speaker 2: what happens if there is a border skirmish between Pakistan
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  Speaker 2: and Afghanistan, where will how the Arabia stand. So these
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  Speaker 2: are the issues which this you know, Pakistan's role has
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  Speaker 2: become more interesting and also it is also playing. This
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  Speaker 2: is very what it called strategic diplomatic game that can
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  Speaker 2: turn anytime.
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  Speaker 1: I wonder how other countries in the region are responding
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  Speaker 1: to the announcement of this pact. What about India?
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  Speaker 2: For example, Pakistan and India their arrivals, they fought wars,
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  Speaker 2: particularly over the disputed region of Kashmid. In fact, there
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  Speaker 2: was a conflict even in last year. Ma I was
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  Speaker 2: in Delhi at that time when both sites were exchanging
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  Speaker 2: drones and missiles. So will Saudi Arabia and Turkey come
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  Speaker 2: to the aid of Pakistan if there is another conflict.
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  Speaker 2: That's a big question because they are geographically far away,
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  Speaker 2: whether they can be systems can be integrated. But it
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  Speaker 2: raises questions for a country like India because now the
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  Speaker 2: dynamics is changing, the architecture changing. Where Pakistan can get
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  Speaker 2: Saudi resources and also Turkish difference technology in terms of
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  Speaker 2: drones or missiles that is going to have an impact
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  Speaker 2: on India's regional security. So already the Indian government's official
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  Speaker 2: response as being you know, we have taken note of it,
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  Speaker 2: we are studying this agreement. But a day before this
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  Speaker 2: agreement was signed, there was a top level contact between
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  Speaker 2: Indian and Israeli officials to discuss about the West Asia situation.
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  Speaker 2: But of course they would have had some information about
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  Speaker 2: this agreement was going to be signed. So in any
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  Speaker 2: future conflict, it's not only Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Already,
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  Speaker 2: China's providing a lot of assistance to Pakistan in terms
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  Speaker 2: of military jets, in terms of sharing like by DO
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  Speaker 2: the satellite technology surveillance capacity. So Pakistan's role is going
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  Speaker 2: to be keenly watched by Indian and that's why you
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  Speaker 2: know people are talking about. Already, India has got close
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  Speaker 2: ties with the strategic and difference ties with Israel, and
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  Speaker 2: India also signed a framework for a defense agreement with
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  Speaker 2: the EUAE United Arab Emirates. So is it going to
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  Speaker 2: be a new another form of strategic cooperation between a
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  Speaker 2: different group of countries, But again, Washington is going to
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  Speaker 2: play an important role in any conflict between India and Pakistan,
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  Speaker 2: as it happened even the last year. But it is
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  Speaker 2: a clear warning sign. It is a clear sign for
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  Speaker 2: India now where it will look up to what it
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  Speaker 2: should be doing, because you're going to look at Pakistan
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  Speaker 2: with a different dynamics where they are going to technology
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  Speaker 2: what it was lacking before and they're going to be
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  Speaker 2: integrating more and getting financial resources from South Arabia. So
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  Speaker 2: it is causing concerns for other countries in the region,
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  Speaker 2: especially with the country with which they are having the rivalry,
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  Speaker 2: for example Turkey and Greece and Saudi and Iran. So
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  Speaker 2: it is having an impact along not only in the Gulf,
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  Speaker 2: but also across the region.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks Embarrassing our global analyst Embarrasson at heagen and if
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