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NFL Week 1 Lines · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Come to the Favorites. The podcast presented by BED three
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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
0:14
Speaker 1: am Shad Molman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:19
Speaker 1: We've shared our thoughts on the NFL Draft. We've had
0:23
Speaker 1: our deep dive into the NFL schedule with Warren Sharp.
0:28
Speaker 1: It is time listeners, dear listeners, to examine the NFL
0:34
Speaker 1: Week one slate. Listen. The truth is we say this
0:39
Speaker 1: every week during the season. Lines are already moving. I
0:43
Speaker 1: know on Tuesday before we went on with Warren Like,
0:48
Speaker 1: we were already itching to get to the Week one lines.
0:51
Speaker 1: We were ready for this Thursday episode. Joining me for
0:57
Speaker 1: this conversation as always is my host, my companion, Mike
1:01
Speaker 1: and Padre my bff, the person who I'd likely be
1:04
Speaker 1: the best man at his wedding professional better, Simon Hunter,
1:08
Speaker 1: l O Saiimon.
1:10
Speaker 2: Hello, chat. Is it true were talking Week one NFL lines? Today?
1:14
Speaker 1: Week one NFL lines. I know you've already made a
1:20
Speaker 1: bunch of bets. Oh, I've already made some bets. I'm
1:23
Speaker 1: not uncomfortable locking some money up for the next four
1:26
Speaker 1: months because everything is adjusting. All schedules are moving earlier.
1:30
Speaker 1: So we're gonna have to take advantage of a couple
1:32
Speaker 1: numbers if we want to get the best of it.
1:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's just even in the opening line. As
1:38
Speaker 2: soon as they come out. I put a tweet out
1:40
Speaker 2: about the Ravens game, and I think that total has
1:43
Speaker 2: moved three points now chat and we talked about dicking
1:45
Speaker 2: the under. So the professionals are going to hit these numbers.
1:48
Speaker 2: And that's why it's kind of like it. It's changed though, right,
1:52
Speaker 2: I think we keep talking about how things you're getting
1:54
Speaker 2: better for betters. It used to be one book maybe
1:57
Speaker 2: we'll put opening lines out for the Week one lines
1:59
Speaker 2: and everyone else would follow up maybe a month later.
2:02
Speaker 2: Now it's a rush, right, All these books are in competition,
2:05
Speaker 2: so we got lines coming out before the NFL even
2:08
Speaker 2: announces these games, let alone the Week one line. So
2:12
Speaker 2: I love it. Right, every book had Week one lines up.
2:14
Speaker 2: I feel like by the second day maybe, so I
2:17
Speaker 2: think they release the schedule on a Wednesday night. Most
2:20
Speaker 2: books had it up that Wednesday, and then every other
2:22
Speaker 2: book really followed up on Thursday. So yeah, a lot
2:24
Speaker 2: of value to be had before the season starts.
2:27
Speaker 1: We are ready to rock and roll. As a reminder,
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Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying
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Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a
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Speaker 1: like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. The
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Speaker 1: thunder outside my house right now is so loud I'm
3:33
Speaker 1: surprised my entire camera isn't shaking. There is a storm
3:38
Speaker 1: that's rumbling down the East coast right now, Simon, So
3:42
Speaker 1: I'm glad we're safe inside super Bowl fifty nine in
3:48
Speaker 1: New Orleans. The road to get there starts in exactly
3:52
Speaker 1: one hundred and five days in Kansas City with the
3:56
Speaker 1: defending champion Chiefs and a rematch of lash years playoff matchup.
4:03
Speaker 1: I will say this in this episode a couple of
4:07
Speaker 1: things I want people to be clear on. We will
4:09
Speaker 1: be doing a big Balls. We will be doing an
4:11
Speaker 1: exec decision. We will be doing a foxhil, We will
4:14
Speaker 1: be doing as Simon says, these are not going to
4:17
Speaker 1: be our official Week one bets until we announce them
4:22
Speaker 1: in the Week one episodes. But we are having a
4:25
Speaker 1: little fun right now. These are bets that Simon and
4:27
Speaker 1: I are locking in on already, that we're investing in.
4:31
Speaker 1: Uh to enjoy a little bit of a taste for
4:34
Speaker 1: the next few months. Kansas City minus two and a
4:37
Speaker 1: half hosting Baltimore Thursday Night football. Give me the cheeks.
4:48
Speaker 2: This is the best. Like, it's crazy how good these
4:51
Speaker 2: primetime games are. We literally started this game in the
4:53
Speaker 2: next game we're going to talk about is Eagles Green Bay.
4:55
Speaker 1: It's just Friday by the way.
4:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, on a Friday, it's amazing. So to start it off,
5:02
Speaker 2: if you're new to the show, me and Chad, it's
5:05
Speaker 2: gonna annoy the hell out of you. But the basis
5:07
Speaker 2: of what we do is predictive value. We are looking
5:10
Speaker 2: for value. So right here off the top, the value
5:13
Speaker 2: has gone on the Ravens number most books, the books
5:16
Speaker 2: we are sponsored by. Right here is showing two and
5:18
Speaker 2: a half. There was a three there. There's still a
5:21
Speaker 2: couple threes out there. You either grab that three or
5:24
Speaker 2: you do not make a bet on this and you
5:25
Speaker 2: just wait because to me, the weight now as someone
5:29
Speaker 2: that got the three, is you hope this gets to
5:31
Speaker 2: the Chiefs at a pick or maybe minus one, and
5:34
Speaker 2: that's when you come in on Mahomes and the Chiefs
5:36
Speaker 2: in that spot because that's where the value will be.
5:38
Speaker 2: So to me, the number is three, you want to
5:40
Speaker 2: take the three of the Ravens. If there's no three,
5:43
Speaker 2: you just you sit this one out. There's plenty of
5:44
Speaker 2: other games to bet on here. So this is a
5:47
Speaker 2: game that's really fun because when it came out, you know,
5:49
Speaker 2: first released, I gave it out on line A plus
5:51
Speaker 2: three and take the under which was forty nine and
5:53
Speaker 2: a half. Now the total is down to forty six
5:56
Speaker 2: and a half, and now most books are showing two
5:57
Speaker 2: and a half, so classic case of the book hung
6:01
Speaker 2: a bad number. The professionals headed. Now the value is
6:03
Speaker 2: kind of gone on this game. So it's opening night.
6:06
Speaker 2: The hope is more people will bet it. As get
6:08
Speaker 2: closer to the season, you'll be able to get better
6:09
Speaker 2: value on the Chiefs, or if it goes back up
6:11
Speaker 2: to three, better value on the Ravens.
6:14
Speaker 1: I would guess that number is going back to three.
6:19
Speaker 1: Like the public is going to come in. NFL is
6:22
Speaker 1: bigger every year. Everyone loves Patrick Mahomes. We've got a
6:26
Speaker 1: guest coming on next week who wrote a book about
6:29
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. There is too much love for the Chiefs.
6:32
Speaker 1: God only knows if Taylor Swift is going to be there.
6:36
Speaker 1: The amount of attention being paid to this game and
6:38
Speaker 1: to the Chiefs will be so high that we will
6:40
Speaker 1: get value again on the Ravens. I think, I think
6:46
Speaker 1: Green Bay at Phillip, Well, green Bay versus Philly. Really,
6:50
Speaker 1: this is a Friday night game in Baltimore. The NFL,
6:55
Speaker 1: they are so brilliant they give no fox like put
7:01
Speaker 1: a game in any country on any day. Whatever the
7:05
Speaker 1: history had been, whatever the president was about when the
7:08
Speaker 1: NFL would play and where they would play is gone.
7:11
Speaker 1: They are playing on Saturdays against expanded college football playoffs.
7:16
Speaker 1: They are playing on December twenty fifth against the window
7:19
Speaker 1: that used to be for the NBA. They are playing
7:21
Speaker 1: on Friday nights. They are playing on Thursday nights. They
7:24
Speaker 1: will be playing on Wednesdays, on Sundays, on Saturdays, on Mondays.
7:29
Speaker 1: They just give. They just give. They're a big gift
7:32
Speaker 1: giving league to all of us fans. Anyways, I don't
7:39
Speaker 1: wanna read on this game. Maybe I like the Eagles.
7:41
Speaker 1: It's short favorites here.
7:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the definition of a trap game. Like the
7:46
Speaker 2: Eagles to me feel like the easiest bet ever. They're
7:48
Speaker 2: playing against a young, inexperienced Green Bay team coming off
7:52
Speaker 2: you know, a ton of hype from what they did
7:54
Speaker 2: in the playoffs last year. I mean, Jordan love Now
7:56
Speaker 2: is being talked about as if he's a top ten quarterback. Yeah,
7:59
Speaker 2: this is pete Green Bay. I was just in Atlantic
8:02
Speaker 2: City the other day, talk the multiple book makers. All
8:06
Speaker 2: the money, all of the money is the Eagles. It's
8:09
Speaker 2: just they they're begging for Green Bay money, so I'm
8:13
Speaker 2: hoping that's just because of the lokachhing I'm in. But again,
8:15
Speaker 2: a lot of these books, it's not just Eagles fans.
8:18
Speaker 2: There's tons of Giants fans. It's a lot of Jets
8:20
Speaker 2: fans too. It's all Eagles money right now. So Eagles
8:25
Speaker 2: might be the chalkiest play of Week one right now,
8:28
Speaker 2: but obviously we're three months out that could change. But
8:31
Speaker 2: from my viewpoint, I don't really get this number. I
8:34
Speaker 2: have this at minus three, so I'm showing good value
8:36
Speaker 2: on the Eagles. But when a bookmaker tells me in
8:39
Speaker 2: week one they are begging for eighteen and it's a dog,
8:44
Speaker 2: I'm eventually getting up on that side with them, most likely,
8:46
Speaker 2: Like it's just the way it is where it's like,
8:48
Speaker 2: as much as I trust my own number, this number
8:51
Speaker 2: is just very weird. I don't really understand it. And
8:53
Speaker 2: maybe it's because international, or maybe because the Eagles finish
8:58
Speaker 2: so poorly last year that the bookmakers don't really trust them.
9:01
Speaker 2: But it's a bizarre number to me. So for right now,
9:05
Speaker 2: I'm just going to stay away and pass on it.
9:07
Speaker 1: I don't think it's about I think you're close to
9:11
Speaker 1: nailing why the number is what it is. This is
9:15
Speaker 1: a public perception bet. To me, I don't think fans
9:20
Speaker 1: really paid attention to how well the Eagles drafted and
9:25
Speaker 1: how much they improved their personnel and how much better
9:28
Speaker 1: their defense got by the changes in the coaching staff,
9:34
Speaker 1: and so the bookmakers know that, and like people who
9:37
Speaker 1: are really paying attention know that the Eagles kind of
9:40
Speaker 1: won the off season. You know, when it comes to
9:43
Speaker 1: the NFC, especially the NFC East and the Packers, everyone
9:47
Speaker 1: is remembering, oh yeah, the Packers. They played amazing in
9:52
Speaker 1: the playoffs, they beat the Cowboys, they had chances to advance.
9:56
Speaker 1: So I think there's just a lot of public sentiment
9:59
Speaker 1: coming in on the Packers and people remembering them being
10:02
Speaker 1: and that people remembering the Eagles being disastrous at the
10:05
Speaker 1: end of the year. So that's why I think it's
10:08
Speaker 1: tracky and it's a little bit of a trap. But
10:10
Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't think our reasoning is right
10:15
Speaker 1: that this is the right side. But it's just a
10:18
Speaker 1: little scary to play it this early. It's not where
10:20
Speaker 1: I would lock up my money.
10:21
Speaker 2: It's just a weird number because Green Bay is an
10:22
Speaker 2: easy team to bet to, miss the playoffs. Like we
10:25
Speaker 2: talk every year, there's just there's three or four teams
10:27
Speaker 2: are guaranteed to miss the playoffs, like Green Bay is
10:29
Speaker 2: at the top of the list of a team that overachieved,
10:32
Speaker 2: you expect to miss the playoffs. So just interesting that
10:34
Speaker 2: the books have this number so low.
10:36
Speaker 1: Speaking of expectations, we tease this the other day, Pittsburgh
10:43
Speaker 1: at Atlanta Atlanta minus three. Dude, I don't know about
10:51
Speaker 1: this game. I don't know about this team, but I
10:56
Speaker 1: feel like we're lean and Steelers here.
11:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you want to make some of our bets too,
11:01
Speaker 2: I love this pick, especially at plus three for the Steelers.
11:04
Speaker 2: It's just my view of it is there is a
11:07
Speaker 2: lot of respect to Kirk Cousins coming off a major
11:10
Speaker 2: injury on a new team, running a new scheme with
11:14
Speaker 2: new weapons, playing against a Pittsburgh team, they could say, well,
11:17
Speaker 2: they have a new quarterback too, and Russell Wilson. It's
11:19
Speaker 2: like they're not gonna be asking Russell Wilson do anywhere
11:22
Speaker 2: near as much as Atlanta's been asking kirk Cousins the
11:24
Speaker 2: dough and then new factor in as well that you
11:27
Speaker 2: know their old head coach Atlanta now is on Pittsburgh
11:30
Speaker 2: and is their offensive coordinator. Like that's a big deal.
11:33
Speaker 2: This guy knows. You know, Arthur Smith, say what you
11:35
Speaker 2: want about him. I think he's a pretty good offensive coordinator.
11:38
Speaker 2: We saw what he did with Tannehill in that Tennessee offense.
11:40
Speaker 2: So you know, for early days here, it's gonna be
11:44
Speaker 2: an advantage of Pittsburgh. Right, No one's really gonna know
11:47
Speaker 2: what they're gonna do with Kirk. He kind of not
11:49
Speaker 2: saying that you know exactly what that offense is gonna be,
11:51
Speaker 2: but we know what Kirk is. But coming off an injury,
11:55
Speaker 2: it's just I can't believe this is minus three. To me,
11:57
Speaker 2: this is closer to well, we just talk about the
11:59
Speaker 2: Eagles big game. It's like that this should be minus
12:01
Speaker 2: one and a half. Right, these two teams. I really
12:04
Speaker 2: do think Pittsburgh's a little better, right, Like, this is
12:07
Speaker 2: a team that across the board, I haven't grayed out
12:10
Speaker 2: a lot of more key positions, and we're not even
12:13
Speaker 2: talking about it. We have a fully healthy watt. Me
12:15
Speaker 2: and Chad love what Pittsburgh as a dog in this position.
12:20
Speaker 2: We almost always play this blindly honestly, So me and
12:24
Speaker 2: Chad I knew were gonna love this one. Back to
12:27
Speaker 2: the pros have come in now and you're seeing a
12:28
Speaker 2: bunch of books, you know, showing that this is going
12:32
Speaker 2: from three to two and a half. I'm just hoping
12:34
Speaker 2: people can get the three on the Pittsburgh the.
12:38
Speaker 1: You mentioned Watt, and you know Evan is out this week,
12:41
Speaker 1: but if he was on, we would have the litany
12:43
Speaker 1: of stats that show how much better the Steelers are
12:49
Speaker 1: both straight up and against the spread when Wat is
12:52
Speaker 1: on the field. Couldn't agree with you more about the
12:57
Speaker 1: situation that the Steelers find themselves in. This is a
13:01
Speaker 1: perfect spot to bet the Steelers, Simon. I'm calling it
13:05
Speaker 1: right now. We're in the foxholl because nobody is going
13:10
Speaker 1: to think, oh, I want to bet Russell Wilson, Oh
13:12
Speaker 1: I want to bet the Steelers when they know Atlanta
13:15
Speaker 1: is getting so much hype.
13:18
Speaker 2: Like they're like one of the most hyped up teams
13:20
Speaker 2: right now, and it's it's I wanted to be on
13:23
Speaker 2: Atlanta now. It's really making me a little nervous abound.
13:25
Speaker 2: It's making me a little nervous about Atlanta.
13:27
Speaker 1: Are we in the foxhill?
13:29
Speaker 2: I'm in the foxhole now. One Yet we're in the
13:30
Speaker 2: fox Hill.
13:32
Speaker 1: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
13:34
Speaker 1: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
13:36
Speaker 1: a city.
13:37
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.
13:38
Speaker 1: Jacksonville at Miami. Miami is a three and a half
13:40
Speaker 1: point favorite.
13:42
Speaker 2: I know, yeah, we're supposed to take Jacksonville, but I
13:46
Speaker 2: actually kind of like Miami. Just Miami at home. But
13:49
Speaker 2: my fear with Miami is I don't really know what
13:51
Speaker 2: kind of team they're going to be. On defense. They've
13:52
Speaker 2: just had a lot of shake up. Now I'm just
13:54
Speaker 2: losing their defensive coordinat I don't know if you know
13:57
Speaker 2: he went things has got the Eagles now, I don't
13:59
Speaker 2: know if that's that big of a deal. But you know,
14:03
Speaker 2: Miami's had some big, big pieces left their defense, and
14:06
Speaker 2: I know they've signed a couple of guys. But I
14:08
Speaker 2: don't really have a good read on Miami.
14:10
Speaker 1: But my view of that Miami's a little overvalued. I
14:15
Speaker 1: think this is another perception thing. Fans aren't thinking about
14:18
Speaker 1: the fact the Dolphins got rid of Christian Wilkins, right,
14:22
Speaker 1: You're not thinking about the fact that the rest of
14:24
Speaker 1: their defense is a little depleted and that there's going
14:27
Speaker 1: to be some changes they're only thinking about the fact
14:29
Speaker 1: Miami played great last year even if they did lose
14:32
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, and Jacksonville underachieved, And so I think
14:35
Speaker 1: you're getting a half point of value in this game.
14:39
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to bet it yet because this is
14:41
Speaker 1: one of those games I want to see how things
14:43
Speaker 1: shake out. There's too many personnel changes that I need
14:46
Speaker 1: to evaluate what happens during the preseason a little bit
14:52
Speaker 1: slight slightly in Jacksonville.
14:54
Speaker 2: But the over to me is the play there. If
14:56
Speaker 2: we're not going because me and chat, you should tick
14:58
Speaker 2: sides here. But like the over, that's the play Miami
15:01
Speaker 2: at home. This will be a track meet so fast.
15:04
Speaker 2: Like Miami is gonna put up points. I think Jacksonville
15:07
Speaker 2: is gonna be able to counter it. Like they do
15:08
Speaker 2: have weapons on that offense. I hope people think because
15:10
Speaker 2: Colvin Ridley left they don't, but it's like they actually
15:13
Speaker 2: do have some pretty solid weapons across the board for Jacksonville.
15:15
Speaker 2: So yeah, met Chad and mainly do sides here. But
15:18
Speaker 2: if you're looking for a total the over here forty
15:20
Speaker 2: nine and a half, I don't mind taking that at all.
15:22
Speaker 2: I have this game at fifty one and a half,
15:23
Speaker 2: so two points of values a lot for me.
15:26
Speaker 1: Minnesota at New York Giants, Giants one point favorites at home.
15:34
Speaker 2: Simon says, New York Giants when we do what science says, shocker.
15:43
Speaker 2: I know, I love this spot so much for the Giants,
15:46
Speaker 2: the Swikings team, people talking about that. I just can't
15:50
Speaker 2: believe this number is what it is, Like, are often
15:52
Speaker 2: right now, Zamy me there might be starting JJ McCartney
15:56
Speaker 2: is first start on the road in New York or
16:00
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, a guy who saw ghosts in this exact stadium.
16:03
Speaker 2: It's like, I can't believe this is the number. It's
16:06
Speaker 2: a dream. It's just the hater's gone too far for
16:09
Speaker 2: the Giants and Daniel Jones, we all agree he is
16:11
Speaker 2: not a good quarterback and any like we all agree
16:14
Speaker 2: he's not the guy right, like they overpaid him. I
16:17
Speaker 2: understand like why they want to get rid of him
16:19
Speaker 2: and why they try to move on from this offseason.
16:20
Speaker 2: But he's on the team and when he plays, he
16:24
Speaker 2: actually plays pretty well in this offense, like surprisingly does
16:27
Speaker 2: all right. Now for his first time his career, he
16:30
Speaker 2: has a number one receiver, like they took a top
16:33
Speaker 2: receiver in the draft. I just don't think the Giant's
16:35
Speaker 2: gonna be as bad as everyone's making an out to be. Like,
16:37
Speaker 2: this number, to me is just insane, and I just
16:39
Speaker 2: can't believe. I can't believe people are betting on the
16:42
Speaker 2: Vikings here on the on the road. It's crazy to me,
16:46
Speaker 2: Like I was hoping this number was gonna flip, that
16:47
Speaker 2: so much love was gonna come up this Vikings team.
16:49
Speaker 2: But just in the last two days, the reports are
16:52
Speaker 2: coming out there that J. J. McCarthy is just he's
16:55
Speaker 2: been horrible in their practices, like they're doing seven on
16:57
Speaker 2: seven drills Chad and apparently he's screamed. Which if you're
17:01
Speaker 2: a head coach and you're doing a seven on seven
17:03
Speaker 2: drie and you've seen your qube continuously scramble, that's got
17:06
Speaker 2: to be an absolute nightmare. It's like, oh my god,
17:08
Speaker 2: this is literally designed for him just to be passing.
17:11
Speaker 2: So yeah, I can't believe this is only minus one.
17:15
Speaker 2: It's it really is a gift. I know the Giants,
17:18
Speaker 2: they're depleted, They're not that good of a team. I
17:20
Speaker 2: understand where all that's gonna come from. Minnesota on paper,
17:22
Speaker 2: is a better team. I just think overall, there's a
17:25
Speaker 2: big advantage to this Giants team facing either a rookie
17:27
Speaker 2: making his first start on the road or Sam Darnold.
17:32
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised this is your Simon says, completely
17:35
Speaker 1: agree with you, because I.
17:37
Speaker 2: Hate to bet this, but it's like, this is insane.
17:40
Speaker 1: But I also know there's to me. We still got
17:43
Speaker 1: to do an exec decision and a big balls and
17:46
Speaker 1: there's three games that we still have to talk about
17:49
Speaker 1: that I think could fill either one of those categories.
17:53
Speaker 1: And I thought those were going to be the other
17:55
Speaker 1: three games that filled. Simon says, big balls, an exec decision.
18:00
Speaker 1: In fact, you pulled Minnesota New York Giants out. It's
18:03
Speaker 1: totally It's like it's almost like you went way off
18:06
Speaker 1: the board and drafted a guy I did not have
18:08
Speaker 1: in any my top four slots. And now I'm re
18:11
Speaker 1: examining the entire board to see who is going to
18:15
Speaker 1: get left out.
18:18
Speaker 2: Now not two weeks ago and this number came out
18:21
Speaker 2: and not think the Giants gonna be one my favorite bets.
18:23
Speaker 2: And then when I saw the number, I'm just like,
18:24
Speaker 2: oh my god, Like this is the hate has gone
18:28
Speaker 2: way too far on this Giants team.
18:30
Speaker 1: It's so interesting how we've talked about this. Brian Daball
18:35
Speaker 1: two years ago Coach of the Year, Yeah, pulls Daniel
18:38
Speaker 1: Jones in a playoff win out of his hat against
18:41
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings, and we felt like Kevin O'Connell wasn't
18:47
Speaker 1: getting the credit he deserved as a really good coach
18:50
Speaker 1: for doing similar things with the Vikings that day Ball
18:53
Speaker 1: did with the Giants, and then this past year he
18:56
Speaker 1: did even better by getting the Vikings to be as
18:58
Speaker 1: good as they were after Kirk Cousins went down and
19:01
Speaker 1: just cycling through quarterbacks. So I do feel like in
19:04
Speaker 1: this matchup, we're getting two really good offensive minds who
19:11
Speaker 1: know how to get their teams ready and play to
19:14
Speaker 1: the strengths of their team, but also exposed the weaknesses
19:17
Speaker 1: of the other team's defense. So it is a tricky
19:19
Speaker 1: game because O'Connor is a really good coach.
19:22
Speaker 2: He is, But again, it's too much love, like people
19:26
Speaker 2: were like, oh, this guy figured out the past or not.
19:28
Speaker 2: They fell off a cliff and that was it. It was
19:31
Speaker 2: over right. They literally couldn't do anything. Are they the
19:34
Speaker 2: team that put up Yeah, they put up zero points? Right,
19:37
Speaker 2: they lost to the Raiders. Three nothing? Right? Or was
19:39
Speaker 2: it the other way? Did they win three nothing? It
19:42
Speaker 2: just got to a point where it's just like, I
19:44
Speaker 2: get the love for the guy. He does amazing things,
19:46
Speaker 2: but it's he's not reinventing the wheel here, Like, he's
19:49
Speaker 2: not that special. Teams are pretty quickly can figure out
19:51
Speaker 2: what he was doing with other quarterbacks and we're able
19:53
Speaker 2: to shut it down. So for me, I do think
19:56
Speaker 2: he's a great coach, but I think Dabo's better. I
19:58
Speaker 2: honestly do. Like he just even bills fans. You've seen
20:02
Speaker 2: the difference between Josh Allen under his coaching and since
20:05
Speaker 2: he's left the offense. So yeah, it's tough to say,
20:09
Speaker 2: Yeah that was Vikings vers Raiders. Yeah, so again and
20:13
Speaker 2: a game and a game, I get it, it's all
20:15
Speaker 2: it's football is weird like that. But I just remember
20:17
Speaker 2: watching that game and being like, this guy is a
20:19
Speaker 2: little overrated. Kevin Simon.
20:22
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
20:24
Speaker 1: United States?
20:26
Speaker 2: Game Time?
20:27
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for
20:29
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I
20:32
Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last
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21:05
Speaker 1: dollars off your first purchase last minute tickets. Those prices guaranteed.
21:10
Speaker 1: Tennessee at Chicago, the Monsters of the Midway four and
21:18
Speaker 1: a half point favorites with a rookie quarterback at home
21:24
Speaker 1: against the Tennessee Titans, This to me feels way trappy.
21:30
Speaker 1: It feels like, all right, everyone's heard about Caleb Williams.
21:34
Speaker 1: He's at home, first game ever in the NFL, going
21:40
Speaker 1: against the Titans, team that has a new coach, a
21:43
Speaker 1: quarterback that everyone thinks is suspect. I'm not buying four
21:47
Speaker 1: and a half though. To me, like one hundred percent,
21:51
Speaker 1: this is a play on the Tennessee Titans as an
21:54
Speaker 1: underdog of not only more than a field goal, more
21:58
Speaker 1: than four points, which is your key number.
22:00
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, I would say this is probably our grossest bet,
22:05
Speaker 2: right yeah, like we're gonna make it's it's one of
22:07
Speaker 2: the biggest that like, no one feels good about placing
22:09
Speaker 2: this bet. You are literally the definition of catrarion here
22:13
Speaker 2: bet in this So yeah, Chad's view is so right though.
22:16
Speaker 2: It's like this line should probably be what minus two
22:19
Speaker 2: and a half three at most, Like it should not.
22:22
Speaker 1: Even it should not be a field goal. I'll tell
22:24
Speaker 1: you that.
22:25
Speaker 2: I would put it right there though, just because that's
22:28
Speaker 2: how low the bar is right now. And will Levis
22:30
Speaker 2: where even in even the little game film practice we've
22:33
Speaker 2: seen of Williams, I mean, it's just it's night and
22:38
Speaker 2: Dick compared to a guy like will Levis, right, will
22:40
Speaker 2: Levis doesn't look that smooth and comfortable compared to watching
22:44
Speaker 2: a kid like Williams who's a rookie coming and throw
22:46
Speaker 2: the ball. So yeah, for us here, this is an
22:49
Speaker 2: easy bet, like this is gonna be in the money
22:51
Speaker 2: line around Robin. This is just an inflated number with
22:54
Speaker 2: a ton of value on it that we could be
22:57
Speaker 2: down fourteen to nothing me and Chad in the first
22:59
Speaker 2: quarter and now we have will Levis throwing for the
23:01
Speaker 2: rest of the game, and we are dead. We are
23:04
Speaker 2: dead in this game. But on the flip side, no
23:07
Speaker 2: one would be shocked if Williams struggles in his first
23:10
Speaker 2: game at home with all that pressure, the weight of
23:13
Speaker 2: Chicago on his shoulders. It's going to be heavy, like
23:16
Speaker 2: he's about to go through a whole month of people
23:18
Speaker 2: blowing smoke up his ass. When you guys get in
23:19
Speaker 2: there and camp just because you've never had such a
23:22
Speaker 2: good court. I mean, they're just going from him and
23:25
Speaker 2: Justin Fields mentally in that huddle in the QB room
23:29
Speaker 2: is going to be insane. This kid can remember plays
23:32
Speaker 2: from high school and talk about the formations to like that. Again,
23:36
Speaker 2: not trying to bash us the fields, but that was
23:37
Speaker 2: the big knock on Justin Fields is he just was
23:39
Speaker 2: not the smartest football mind, right, His football mind wasn't
23:43
Speaker 2: the best where that's when of Williams strngth. So the
23:46
Speaker 2: pressure is going to be insane on this kid. And
23:49
Speaker 2: again I was gonna make this one of our big
23:50
Speaker 2: balls bet. But my worry here is this number chat
23:53
Speaker 2: is going to keep going up because I think all
23:55
Speaker 2: the Tisers, all these other bets going to come in.
23:57
Speaker 2: So it's like, I'm happy for people to grab the
23:59
Speaker 2: four and a half, but it's not this is one
24:01
Speaker 2: of the bets. I'm not holding you down being like
24:03
Speaker 2: you have to take this right now. Chad knows. I
24:05
Speaker 2: really want to see more Will Levis tape, especially in
24:07
Speaker 2: the preseason, see what kind of offensive scheme they're running
24:10
Speaker 2: here before I put, you know, upwards of six figures
24:13
Speaker 2: onto a Tennessee team, because it's just like senior right now,
24:16
Speaker 2: I can't really bring myself to do it. It's like,
24:18
Speaker 2: looking at this team, I don't have that kind of
24:20
Speaker 2: faith me and you are really just betting a bad
24:22
Speaker 2: number at the end of the day, right you know.
24:25
Speaker 1: It's funny this was I said. There were three games
24:28
Speaker 1: that I had sort of pegged as slotting for exec
24:33
Speaker 1: Decision and Big Balls. Now that Simon Says and fox
24:37
Speaker 1: Hall been taken, this was one of them, and then
24:40
Speaker 1: I decided it wasn't going to be my suggestion for it.
24:44
Speaker 1: Neither is the next one. But I know we're going
24:47
Speaker 1: to bet it. I know it's going to be in
24:48
Speaker 1: the money line parlay, and it's going to be terrible,
24:53
Speaker 1: and this is going to be our Jacksonville Jaguars team
24:55
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one. We're just going to bet it
25:00
Speaker 1: every single week Carolina Panthers plus five at New Orleans.
25:04
Speaker 1: I don't even want to talk about it. I just
25:06
Speaker 1: want to say we're betting it.
25:08
Speaker 2: No, I'll definitely give some voice to bray Sewan because
25:13
Speaker 2: I just literally spent a whole entire year shitting on
25:16
Speaker 2: the kid, and I didn't want to do it, but
25:18
Speaker 2: it's that's part of the job, right is we come
25:21
Speaker 2: here to really be honest with our views and our opinions.
25:24
Speaker 2: And it was just like, I couldn't get over this
25:25
Speaker 2: kid being a first round pick. Did I think he
25:28
Speaker 2: was gonna be as far as he was, No, I
25:29
Speaker 2: think that team organization failed him in a ton of ways.
25:33
Speaker 2: Now they're trying to do their best to fix it.
25:35
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's the fix though. What they
25:37
Speaker 2: went out and did was spend about fifty million on
25:39
Speaker 2: their offensive line, which is great. I think they have
25:41
Speaker 2: the most highest paid offensive line in all football, which
25:46
Speaker 2: is fantastic. But my issue is the kids still can't
25:49
Speaker 2: see the middle of the field because you can'tee his
25:50
Speaker 2: offensive line one they're all standing up. That's a huge issue.
25:53
Speaker 2: So I don't know, they're a weird team chat Like,
25:57
Speaker 2: like you said, we'll play this five. But I feel
26:00
Speaker 2: better taking Tennessee, even though I have more questions about
26:03
Speaker 2: them than I even do taking a Panthers here just
26:05
Speaker 2: because they have they're just losers, the stank of the
26:09
Speaker 2: losing culture last year. I mean, going back all those
26:11
Speaker 2: bets we lost. I've watched some of those games. Unfortunately,
26:14
Speaker 2: a bunch the drops from the receivers, all this stuff.
26:18
Speaker 2: They didn't really fix a lot of that stuff. I know,
26:20
Speaker 2: you know, they've tried to add guys. I think they
26:22
Speaker 2: got the guy from Pittsburgh, right, I figured which receiver
26:24
Speaker 2: they got from Pittsburgh, but they did add a receiver.
26:26
Speaker 2: But it's like, I still think Feeling's probably their best guy.
26:30
Speaker 2: I mean, Deontay Johnson's really good, but he's inconsistent. I
26:33
Speaker 2: think he had one touchdown in like seventeen games, which
26:36
Speaker 2: again you can blame the quarterback. But like Chad said,
26:39
Speaker 2: I'm sorry even spending this much time on it, I
26:41
Speaker 2: just I do think the Panthers are gonna be better.
26:44
Speaker 2: This is the team that me and Chattel fortunately are
26:45
Speaker 2: gonna be betting a lot this upcoming season, but it was
26:48
Speaker 2: all about picking our spots here. So yeah, I like it,
26:50
Speaker 2: but I doubt this will be one of our five
26:52
Speaker 2: come Week one.
26:53
Speaker 1: No, it won't be. But we're are We're historically we're
26:57
Speaker 1: gonna fade Dennis Allen as a favorite. We're gonna finish
27:02
Speaker 1: as a five point favorite at home this next game,
27:05
Speaker 1: Arizona at Buffalo. I am offering this up Arizona Cardinals
27:11
Speaker 1: plus seven as our big balls bet of the off season.
27:19
Speaker 2: Now we have another one. I have a we have
27:21
Speaker 2: a better big balls but I get you're coming from
27:23
Speaker 2: this is this is a bet we we probably make,
27:26
Speaker 2: but yeah, it's another one. I don't really get the number.
27:30
Speaker 2: Is this because of teasers? Like why is this so high?
27:33
Speaker 2: This is this is a crazy big number for a
27:35
Speaker 2: Buffalo offense that I feel like their identity has totally
27:39
Speaker 2: changed this offseason where they're kind of be a more
27:41
Speaker 2: oriented team. But this scares me chat because they they
27:45
Speaker 2: they are begging us to put some money on the Cardinals.
27:47
Speaker 2: You're giving us that plus seven, that's a big number.
27:50
Speaker 2: Where Yeah, Kyler with Marmon Harris like this back door
27:55
Speaker 2: is always going to be open with this Bills teams,
27:57
Speaker 2: not that his highest power has always been so over
28:00
Speaker 2: your head's out. But I actually haven't put a penny
28:01
Speaker 2: on this game yet. I don't really know what to
28:02
Speaker 2: read is on. It's like, won't this be seven and
28:05
Speaker 2: a half eight by week one? Just because all the
28:08
Speaker 2: teasers and parlays on the Bills. But man, I couldn't.
28:12
Speaker 2: I could not believe this open at seven just because
28:14
Speaker 2: I had it at power at five and a half six.
28:15
Speaker 2: So yeah, I initially I wanted to jump right on it,
28:18
Speaker 2: but I'm trying to be patient here and wait on
28:19
Speaker 2: this one to keep going up.
28:21
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you again, for those listening, we don't
28:25
Speaker 1: talk about this before to We don't want to map
28:27
Speaker 1: it out because we want this to be organic and
28:29
Speaker 1: feel fresh. I'm shocked. Like I looked at the schedule,
28:33
Speaker 1: I looked at the rundown this morning, I'm like, oh, yes,
28:37
Speaker 1: this is at our big balls bet of the week.
28:39
Speaker 1: I know how we feel about the Bills right now.
28:41
Speaker 1: I know how we feel about the Cardinals. We both
28:44
Speaker 1: think the Cardinals are trending up. We think they could
28:47
Speaker 1: be the third best team in their division, maybe the
28:50
Speaker 1: second best in the NFC West. Definitely like the way
28:53
Speaker 1: they played last year. I am shocked, shocked, shocked, So
28:58
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to your suggestions.
29:00
Speaker 2: It's really just about Kyler Brother. I just that dude.
29:05
Speaker 2: I don't know about him. Like he came back and
29:07
Speaker 2: he might have had a moment here there, but it
29:09
Speaker 2: was just like I don't really I don't really know
29:12
Speaker 2: if he is, if he even likes football, Like, I
29:17
Speaker 2: just have a bunch of I have too many questions
29:18
Speaker 2: about him. So that's just my biggest issue at chaw
29:20
Speaker 2: where it's like you're asking to lock up money for
29:22
Speaker 2: the next three months, and I feel like I might
29:24
Speaker 2: be able to get better value come week one, just
29:26
Speaker 2: because Yeah, I just I don't know who's really loving
29:31
Speaker 2: back in the Arizona besides the professionals. Like he just
29:33
Speaker 2: talked with the professionals, I think they love their win.
29:35
Speaker 2: Told a lot of people are all in on this
29:36
Speaker 2: Cardinals team. I just I have a lot of questions still,
29:39
Speaker 2: just mainly about Kyler.
29:41
Speaker 1: All right, well, we still own a big balls, we
29:43
Speaker 1: still own EXAC decision. I will tell you that my
29:45
Speaker 1: EXAC decision is coming up soon, but it is not
29:49
Speaker 1: New England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati minus nine and a half,
29:52
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, his luxurious main Joe Burrow, who is him?
29:58
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, who we love of nine and a half
30:02
Speaker 1: is a big, big, big big number.
30:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll bet the Patriots here. And I wish I'd
30:08
Speaker 2: give you guys a ton of numbers and logical reasoning
30:10
Speaker 2: behind it, but there really isn't one other than this
30:13
Speaker 2: is an inflated line and everyone in the world is
30:16
Speaker 2: going to have the Cincinnati and their teasers and their parlays,
30:19
Speaker 2: and it's just it's and again another number where if
30:21
Speaker 2: you want to wait, this could easily get to ten
30:23
Speaker 2: might as you can wait. I mean, there's no rush.
30:26
Speaker 2: But in my mind, I think this number is so
30:28
Speaker 2: high because they have it as if May is going
30:30
Speaker 2: to start where I think most of us think it's
30:32
Speaker 2: gonna be Perset, which again, that'd be amazing value if
30:35
Speaker 2: it's Persette starting, even though I have big questions about him,
30:38
Speaker 2: it's at the end of the day, he to me,
30:41
Speaker 2: would be a safer bet than betting on May the
30:44
Speaker 2: unknown here in this week one So another line where
30:47
Speaker 2: it's like I'm not making this anything for us just
30:49
Speaker 2: because I don't want people getting a bad number here
30:51
Speaker 2: and then being pissed come week one because ten is
30:53
Speaker 2: such a key number. So yeah, there's nine and a
30:56
Speaker 2: half's out there. Hopefully we wait it gets to ten
30:59
Speaker 2: at some point this summer. I mean, I'll definitely tweet
31:01
Speaker 2: about or we'll bring it up on the show and
31:02
Speaker 2: you go grab when it's ten, but don't, don't just
31:05
Speaker 2: grab a nine. Nine is kind of a debt number anyway.
31:09
Speaker 1: Houston at Indy Indie minus one and a half, I
31:14
Speaker 1: mean Indy plus one and a half. There's two home
31:17
Speaker 1: underdogs on the schedule in week one. This is one
31:21
Speaker 1: of them. We're gonna get the other one a little bit.
31:24
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts are my exec decision.
31:28
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
31:32
Speaker 2: have your honor's text A cute number executive decision.
31:37
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to find another big boss, all right?
31:39
Speaker 1: Yeah no, I feel strongly about this one.
31:42
Speaker 2: Yeah.
31:42
Speaker 1: Like we are buy and low, we are selling high.
31:46
Speaker 1: We are getting Anthony Richardson, who was a gamer. We
31:49
Speaker 1: are getting Shane Steichen, who I think is a brilliant coach.
31:54
Speaker 1: Did such a good job turning Gardner Minshew into a
31:57
Speaker 1: quarterback who can make this a high can Alibert team
32:00
Speaker 1: who could compete with anybody. Obviously Houston with Rookie of
32:05
Speaker 1: the Year on offense, Rookie of the Year on defense.
32:07
Speaker 1: Demigo Ryans is a great coach like they are. They
32:10
Speaker 1: are primed to be great, which means they are primed
32:15
Speaker 1: for a fall. In Week one, give me the Annapolis
32:19
Speaker 1: Colts plus one and a half home underdog. Exec decision, go.
32:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, this isn't a gain. Much is in this divisional
32:27
Speaker 2: home dog on a team we both love, with a
32:30
Speaker 2: quarterback we think is going to take another big step
32:32
Speaker 2: in his second year. So even if you've seen him
32:35
Speaker 2: in practice, like how much weight and muscle is put on,
32:39
Speaker 2: even if story mechanics looked better in his footwork than
32:42
Speaker 2: they did last year, like clearly he's been working on
32:44
Speaker 2: all of it. So yeah, people are gonna get You're
32:46
Speaker 2: gonna get sick of it. Me chatter gonna like I
32:48
Speaker 2: already wish we had talked more about it. But his
32:51
Speaker 2: his MVP odds were really good. Now they're not. The
32:53
Speaker 2: value is really not there anymore, Tibet Anthony Ridge's an MVP,
32:56
Speaker 2: but like these are the time it kind of teams
32:58
Speaker 2: we love to back, right It's like if you go
33:01
Speaker 2: back and watch how Houston the Colts played last year,
33:04
Speaker 2: I have no doubt that if a rodd was healthier
33:07
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson, they probably would have beat them like they were.
33:10
Speaker 2: Just that game came down to the last game of
33:12
Speaker 2: the year and Minshewt to me was the difference in
33:14
Speaker 2: that game where their defense. Colts played really well against
33:19
Speaker 2: you know CJ. And we've kind of seen that, right,
33:21
Speaker 2: And it's divisional games. You've seen guys twice. It's different
33:24
Speaker 2: the second time around. You know they have. It's just
33:27
Speaker 2: it's just different divisional games. So me and chatter and
33:29
Speaker 2: so lockstep here. I love this one so much. If
33:33
Speaker 2: you're scared, like I tell I say it all the time,
33:36
Speaker 2: if you're scared, better you don't want to take the
33:38
Speaker 2: one and a half. Now do a teaser, Like if
33:40
Speaker 2: you want to do a teaser here with this team
33:42
Speaker 2: and Cincinnati or the Bills wherever you want to throw in,
33:45
Speaker 2: there are chalk teaser seven and a half picking this
33:49
Speaker 2: team up to seven and a half at home. Colts,
33:50
Speaker 2: I just there's not a ward. I can't see this
33:52
Speaker 2: team not covering that, especially in divisional games. So yeah,
33:55
Speaker 2: love lover. Chad's had that love this game, love this
33:58
Speaker 2: matchup Houston. To me, this will be the one of
34:03
Speaker 2: the most bet public sides right. All that money's gonna
34:06
Speaker 2: come in so heavy on Houston. Yes, I mean people
34:07
Speaker 2: getting them under a field goal in this game. They're
34:09
Speaker 2: just loving that value. Where me and Chatty the other way,
34:12
Speaker 2: we just can't believe we're getting a plus number right
34:13
Speaker 2: now on this Colts team. So just I'm says that
34:17
Speaker 2: you picked up but obviously want to make it the
34:19
Speaker 2: big balls. But I see your heads at chat This
34:21
Speaker 2: is this is a great.
34:21
Speaker 1: Bet, all right, now that I've made it my exact decision,
34:25
Speaker 1: we do need to do a big balls. We can
34:29
Speaker 1: keep Arizona on the table, but there is another game
34:32
Speaker 1: where I think we could go big balls, and so
34:34
Speaker 1: we'll keep running through it and know that Arizona is
34:36
Speaker 1: in our back pocket. Denver Seattle Seattle minus four and
34:40
Speaker 1: a half, no thank you anywhere.
34:47
Speaker 2: I know I hate it though we're supposed to bet Denver,
34:49
Speaker 2: but don't come on. I know it's it's it. I
34:55
Speaker 2: know I can't do it. I just maybe my hate's
34:59
Speaker 2: gone too far on Seattle. But that's that's a big
35:02
Speaker 2: number for Gino. But Chad's right, it's like, am I
35:05
Speaker 2: really gonna be betting on bow Knicks on the road
35:07
Speaker 2: in his first start? Plus five? It's just I'd rather
35:11
Speaker 2: I'd rather put my money elsewhere. So yeah, I just
35:14
Speaker 2: I can't. I can't see this really changing unless you know,
35:16
Speaker 2: we watch preseason. This kid has full command of the
35:18
Speaker 2: offense and everything. He reads great. But it's just that's
35:22
Speaker 2: that's that's tough. Maybe we wait, he looks like dog
35:25
Speaker 2: shit in preseason. We get a seven come kickoff. But yeah,
35:28
Speaker 2: Chad's right, I'll pass on this now.
35:29
Speaker 1: It's not a bet now game, We're not you know,
35:32
Speaker 1: we don't feel strongly about that right now.
35:35
Speaker 2: Vegas, I just can't make a number on it because
35:36
Speaker 2: I had nothing really for my model. It's like, I
35:39
Speaker 2: don't know who the quarterback is. I got no read
35:40
Speaker 2: on any of these quarterbacks right now. Obviously, if it's
35:43
Speaker 2: not Bo Nicks and they got the other guys going,
35:45
Speaker 2: it's not ideal in Denver, But I think Champaigne's so
35:48
Speaker 2: enamored with the kids, he's going to be the starter.
35:51
Speaker 1: Las Vegas at l A Chargers. Jim Harbaugh debut at
35:57
Speaker 1: home minus three and a half point favorites. Not a
36:04
Speaker 1: massive feel for this game. I don't have a strong
36:06
Speaker 1: opinion one way or the other.
36:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I do know. I'm gonna hate myself
36:10
Speaker 2: for doing it, but I took the under. I just
36:13
Speaker 2: I had to bet it. It's like even though like
36:16
Speaker 2: I might regret it, but I just view this Raiders
36:18
Speaker 2: identity is that the identity is that it's the defense
36:22
Speaker 2: twelve personnel running the ball kind of team. Like that's
36:26
Speaker 2: just my view of what they're gonna try to be
36:27
Speaker 2: this season, this Raiders team, and harror Ball is more
36:31
Speaker 2: than happy to just go into the mud and run
36:33
Speaker 2: the ball forty times. Like he doesn't care that it's Herbert.
36:37
Speaker 2: He just wants to win every game by one point.
36:39
Speaker 2: Like that's why I love a coach like him. He
36:41
Speaker 2: does not care that whatever Herbert is so great at.
36:44
Speaker 2: It's like, no, we're here to win, not see you
36:47
Speaker 2: throw amazing passes downfield with one out of every five connects.
36:50
Speaker 2: It's like that whole thing we saw with Herbert, those
36:52
Speaker 2: old days are kind of gone. He's gonna kind of
36:54
Speaker 2: go into that Andrew Luck roll right, Andrew Luck at Stanford.
36:57
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch it. Once they had weapons,
37:00
Speaker 2: he felt comfortably and your look, they really opened the
37:02
Speaker 2: offense up and they're happy to push the ball downfield.
37:04
Speaker 2: But the early days he really relies on him learning
37:06
Speaker 2: the system and just running the ball. So you know,
37:09
Speaker 2: there was a couple forty five's out there. A couple
37:12
Speaker 2: of forty fours are still available our sponsors here Beth
37:15
Speaker 2: through six's five of a forty three and a half.
37:17
Speaker 2: You'd take it if you wont but try to find
37:18
Speaker 2: the forty four. That's a key number. So definitely like
37:20
Speaker 2: the under in this matchup.
37:23
Speaker 1: Potential big balls, better of the week. I don't think
37:25
Speaker 1: it's it, but it's potential. It's on the board. Dallas
37:29
Speaker 1: at Cleveland Cleveland plus one and a half. We're going
37:32
Speaker 1: to go into the season the same as we went
37:35
Speaker 1: into last season. Deshaun Watson, Deshaun Watson, Deshaun Watson. The
37:40
Speaker 1: more belief in this Cleveland team is directly correlated to
37:43
Speaker 1: your belief in Deshaun Watson. And I know you can
37:46
Speaker 1: say that about the quarterback for every team. There is
37:49
Speaker 1: something different about Deshaun Watson because people continue to think
37:54
Speaker 1: of him as what he was with the Texans, and
37:56
Speaker 1: hoping he can get back to that with the Browns,
37:59
Speaker 1: and that makes the ceiling for this team so much higher.
38:03
Speaker 1: Cleveland at plus one and a half feels like a
38:06
Speaker 1: good side if you are a believer in Deshaun Watson.
38:10
Speaker 2: Yep. And this is a game another game where I'm
38:13
Speaker 2: happy to wait on, where everything's so negative that juju
38:17
Speaker 2: is so bad right now for Dallas. I want to, honestly, Jed,
38:22
Speaker 2: I want to bet Dallas. I just feel like this
38:26
Speaker 2: is a nice bilose spot on DAK and then Week
38:30
Speaker 2: one here against Cleveland, where to me, Watson's gonna be
38:33
Speaker 2: so crazy rusty. I mean, this guy has played not
38:36
Speaker 2: played a full season. He's just been playing sparsely for
38:38
Speaker 2: about four years now. And he's inconsistent. I mean even
38:41
Speaker 2: in practice. I watched the other day some of their practice.
38:44
Speaker 2: He's not even fully throwing yet. He was doing mimic throwing,
38:47
Speaker 2: like he's not throwing with a ball, Like he still
38:50
Speaker 2: has days where he's not fully fully throwing yet. So
38:53
Speaker 2: you know, again, we're three months out. I get it,
38:55
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a slow process getting back. But I
38:59
Speaker 2: look at this team that me and Chad loved them
39:01
Speaker 2: last year because of Jim Schwartz and that defense, and
39:03
Speaker 2: that was our ultimate confidence that we know they're gonna
39:06
Speaker 2: be the greatest home team ever in football history. Like defensively, no,
39:11
Speaker 2: is that repeatable, Chad, No, we both know that's Those
39:14
Speaker 2: are totally outliner kind of things. So I'm trying not
39:17
Speaker 2: to be scared off by that because if this was
39:18
Speaker 2: mid season last year, me and Chad would be hammering please. Yeah,
39:23
Speaker 2: even if it was Joe Flacco, we would love this number.
39:26
Speaker 2: So I'm trying to be not an idiot, not thinking
39:30
Speaker 2: about last year, kind of play what's in front of me.
39:32
Speaker 2: And as you said here right now, I think me
39:34
Speaker 2: and you both feel more confidence putting our money behind
39:36
Speaker 2: Dak in the regular season then we do Deshaun Watson
39:39
Speaker 2: at a pick right. So that's where my head's aret
39:42
Speaker 2: right now. So I'm gonna pass with that one for now.
39:45
Speaker 1: We got three more games. We still owe the big balls.
39:49
Speaker 1: Washington at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay minus four.
39:55
Speaker 2: Another rookie on the road, and it's stuff where it's like, dude,
39:59
Speaker 2: do you feel good back in Baker at minus four?
40:02
Speaker 2: I don't. I want to take the rookie at plus
40:05
Speaker 2: four on the high upside of the unknown, so I'll
40:09
Speaker 2: be convinced on it. But am I putting money on
40:11
Speaker 2: that right now? Hell no, I got no read on
40:13
Speaker 2: this one. I got him modeled out at three. So yeah,
40:16
Speaker 2: the value right now is definitely Washington, and I feel
40:18
Speaker 2: like that's right. But not going to rush to bed
40:21
Speaker 2: at another game. I'm okay sitting here letting this number
40:23
Speaker 2: move around. But you know, Washington, they are another team
40:28
Speaker 2: that's gonna getting a lot of hype. I'm telling you
40:29
Speaker 2: before the season starts, just because this kid Daniels, if
40:31
Speaker 2: he has one, if he breaks out one run in
40:34
Speaker 2: the preseason, it's gonna take off this Washington hype train,
40:37
Speaker 2: just because it's the first guy they really had since
40:39
Speaker 2: what you know, RG three. This kind of athleticism that's
40:43
Speaker 2: just exciting to watch. So yeah, the Daniels. Just seeing
40:46
Speaker 2: him at that picture day, even actually sitting next to
40:49
Speaker 2: your quarterback Williams, it's like, holy shit, man Daniels. They
40:51
Speaker 2: kept talking about skinny and shit he was. It's like
40:53
Speaker 2: he looks pretty damn big than me. So definitely exciting
40:56
Speaker 2: times in Washington. And then plus four plus four, I
41:00
Speaker 2: can't get over that Baker's minus four against the team.
41:03
Speaker 2: But I guess it makes sense, right rookie on the
41:05
Speaker 2: road here, So we'll just keep waiting on this one.
41:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, that's not a bookmaker's looking at Baker.
41:12
Speaker 1: That's a bookmaker's looking at Washington and the perception of
41:15
Speaker 1: Washington and Jaden Daniels. And look, the Bucks did make
41:18
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Baker played great at the end of the year.
41:21
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42:55
Speaker 1: In the last two games on the schedule, Detroit three
43:00
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite against the Rams. Let's do
43:05
Speaker 1: them together. Jets five and a half point underdogs. Monday
43:13
Speaker 1: Night football debut for Aaron Rogers back to back seasons.
43:22
Speaker 1: Let's see if he can survive the first series. But
43:27
Speaker 1: I will tell you I feel good with the nine
43:31
Speaker 1: or with the Jets or the Rams. As a big
43:34
Speaker 1: balls bet of the week here, I think we are
43:37
Speaker 1: getting significant percentage value in the hook on both games.
43:45
Speaker 2: The big balls better. The week's gotta be the Rams. Yeah,
43:48
Speaker 2: come on, plus three and a half. This obviously doesn't
43:54
Speaker 2: take that big of balls. Anyone out there is more
43:56
Speaker 2: than happy to take the hook on the Rams. My
43:59
Speaker 2: viewed of is this is insane. Detroit's crazy over value here.
44:02
Speaker 2: Even though I have them power rate is the number
44:04
Speaker 2: three best team in the NFC. I really don't have
44:07
Speaker 2: the Rams that far below them, honestly, Like, the biggest
44:11
Speaker 2: difference here is just, you know, overall, Detroit's a more
44:16
Speaker 2: complete team than the Rams because the Rams just have
44:18
Speaker 2: not had first round draft picks. So Detroit's been incredible
44:22
Speaker 2: at drafting these last couple of seasons, and that's definitely
44:24
Speaker 2: the big difference here. But public reception is really the
44:27
Speaker 2: driver of this number. Like this is going to be
44:29
Speaker 2: three by kickoff for two and a half. There's no
44:31
Speaker 2: way the professionals don't hit this on the Rams. If
44:34
Speaker 2: you have if you have a healthy Stafford I mean
44:37
Speaker 2: again Williams mean now would be a big deal. They
44:39
Speaker 2: took that kid from Michigan, so they already have another
44:41
Speaker 2: running back that can step in. That's, you know, to me,
44:43
Speaker 2: a playmaker. So yeah, I'm not trying to go too
44:47
Speaker 2: overbold heere, but I love this Rams team so much,
44:50
Speaker 2: so this is a bet that I made right when
44:52
Speaker 2: it came out. I've been hitting it and I talked
44:55
Speaker 2: to book makers. They don't mind it because they're getting
44:57
Speaker 2: tons of money here on Detroit, not only in moneyline
44:59
Speaker 2: part teasers. Just the public loves this team, the Detroit
45:03
Speaker 2: so the Rams don't let it be scared off that
45:05
Speaker 2: this Houck is stage this whole time. I love this
45:07
Speaker 2: Rams team.
45:08
Speaker 1: It's interesting to me that when you say you're talking
45:10
Speaker 1: to book makers, my sense from what you're saying right
45:14
Speaker 1: now is that there's already public money coming in on
45:19
Speaker 1: these and normally with lines getting posted this early, you know,
45:23
Speaker 1: professionals would take their bites and it would be pretty
45:25
Speaker 1: dormant for the public. Is that the the sense you're
45:30
Speaker 1: getting for bookmakers, is it the public is coming in?
45:33
Speaker 2: Well say, you must not be on social media and
45:34
Speaker 2: everyone's professional now, Chad, So I guess that's true. Yeah,
45:37
Speaker 2: Joe Schmoe's walking in there thinking they're beating the books.
45:39
Speaker 2: They're the sharp guy. But yeah, they, like you said,
45:43
Speaker 2: they're the public. So I think it's more that people
45:46
Speaker 2: just love football. That's been the biggest shift, right the
45:48
Speaker 2: itch for it, where it's like you're right, most people
45:51
Speaker 2: don't want to tie their money up for three months.
45:53
Speaker 2: But people are just so into it they don't mind
45:56
Speaker 2: doing it right now. They're just like they feel like
45:58
Speaker 2: they're getting a good number in Hey, they might be,
46:00
Speaker 2: but I'm with you. I am shocked how much money
46:03
Speaker 2: is coming early here on different different games. It's just like, wow,
46:06
Speaker 2: people cannot wait for football to kick off. I mean,
46:09
Speaker 2: people are just so damn excited.
46:13
Speaker 1: All right, Well, the last game, Jet said Niners Niners
46:15
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites off sides. You like
46:20
Speaker 1: the Niners?
46:20
Speaker 2: I know, yeah, I got this. I got I told
46:22
Speaker 2: you I got them number one, And like I know,
46:25
Speaker 2: a couple of people scoffed at it. Guess who fucking
46:27
Speaker 2: has them number one too? All the sports books they're
46:30
Speaker 2: favored in every game, even against the Chiefs, they're favored
46:33
Speaker 2: against them. That's what it's like, attracts waiting people. That's
46:35
Speaker 2: the hardest part of this job. It's like, no shit,
46:38
Speaker 2: we think the Chiefs are the best team in football.
46:39
Speaker 2: They just won the fucking Super Bowl. No one's model
46:42
Speaker 2: has the Chiefs as the number one team. They have
46:45
Speaker 2: so many fucking holes they're they're just I don't even
46:48
Speaker 2: think they're probably even most most people have that number
46:50
Speaker 2: one in the AFC when they bringing them to their model.
46:52
Speaker 2: It's just models came for. I can't account for how
46:55
Speaker 2: incredible Mahomes is. So forty nine Ers are the best
46:59
Speaker 2: team in football, Like, I hate, I hate it, but
47:01
Speaker 2: I have him power at number one. So the books
47:03
Speaker 2: are favorite in every single game this season. It's not shocking.
47:06
Speaker 2: They're just so complete. So I wanted to bet the
47:09
Speaker 2: Jets here. I'm pissed that I don't have value on
47:12
Speaker 2: them because I thought when I first sat the number,
47:14
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, this is a good number, Like, I
47:16
Speaker 2: bet my mode's gonna have this at three three and
47:17
Speaker 2: a half. Nope, make it, make it a touchdown. It's
47:20
Speaker 2: like Jesus Christ, I just can't believe the forty nine
47:22
Speaker 2: ers are that good. Yeah, So it could be also
47:26
Speaker 2: that maybe I'm not adjusted enough in my own head
47:30
Speaker 2: compared to the computer. That Aaron Rodgers is in his
47:33
Speaker 2: forties coming off a major injury. Now he's on the
47:36
Speaker 2: road playing against, you know, the arguably the best team
47:40
Speaker 2: in football. It's like in a stadium, he struggles, right,
47:44
Speaker 2: I mean, think of all the times he went from
47:45
Speaker 2: Green Bay and played there, whatever it is, mentally, he
47:48
Speaker 2: obviously does struggle there, so I know it in my head.
47:52
Speaker 2: I was like pumped for it because I told you
47:53
Speaker 2: I like the Jets's here. I'm a buyer. But yeah,
47:57
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, right, team, I'm not having a
47:59
Speaker 2: lot of moneyline lazy and teasers. They're a team I
48:02
Speaker 2: really like in this Week one matchup of I think
48:05
Speaker 2: they're being a little undervalued here, that they're actually better
48:07
Speaker 2: than people perceive. So not shocking that a couple of
48:10
Speaker 2: pros I've talked to of coming on the Jets, right.
48:12
Speaker 2: I think Chad has the same view of it. It's
48:13
Speaker 2: like that's a lot of points for Week one, especially
48:15
Speaker 2: for Rodgers. But I'm gonna trust them outl on this
48:18
Speaker 2: one and just think I'm overrating Rogers and the Jets
48:21
Speaker 2: in my mind, where this will be a good parameter,
48:24
Speaker 2: right if they come out and they do cover or
48:26
Speaker 2: beat this number, Honestly, I'll make me happy because Tad
48:28
Speaker 2: knows I have a bunch of futures. I'm invested in
48:30
Speaker 2: this Jets team, but I'm gonna trust my model here.
48:33
Speaker 2: I'm back to forty nine Ers.
48:36
Speaker 1: The joy a rational joy I get when you tell
48:39
Speaker 1: me that you like my exact decision. I've forgotten how
48:44
Speaker 1: happy I love it this in the past five months.
48:47
Speaker 1: Recap our Foxhoul.
48:51
Speaker 2: It's gonna be so gross. I can't wait to go.
48:52
Speaker 2: Let me hear.
48:53
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus three is our Foxhole. Well, you recommend people
48:59
Speaker 1: take Jacksonville and Miami over forty nine because you got
49:02
Speaker 1: that at about fifty one. New York Jets minus.
49:06
Speaker 2: One is Giants giants.
49:09
Speaker 1: I mean New York Giants minus one even worse because
49:12
Speaker 1: they are assigning so much worse. I was maybe I
49:15
Speaker 1: was just in my head hoping it had change the Jets.
49:20
Speaker 1: The exec decision is the Indianapolis Colts plus one and
49:25
Speaker 1: a half at home against the Houston Texans are big
49:29
Speaker 1: balls better the week? What are the offseason? Los Angeles
49:35
Speaker 1: Rams plast three and a half on the road on
49:38
Speaker 1: Sunday Night football against the Detroit Lions. Caveat Again. We
49:44
Speaker 1: are investing in these games now, but these are all
49:46
Speaker 1: subject to change when we actually do the Week one podcast.
49:50
Speaker 1: But we did want to give people a little bit
49:52
Speaker 1: of taste of what we're thinking about it.
49:54
Speaker 2: Likes they don't, but chance it's three months from now,
49:59
Speaker 2: like it's something crazy. Shit's going to happen, right yead,
50:02
Speaker 2: So there's always that out people don't they'll hold this
50:05
Speaker 2: to it too hard.
50:06
Speaker 1: One hundred and five days from today it all starts.
50:10
Speaker 2: That's not bad.
50:11
Speaker 1: Honestly, it's honestly not bad. I can, I can, I can.
50:15
Speaker 1: Basically we can make it see it. We're five weeks
50:18
Speaker 1: from the beginning of July, and July is kind of
50:21
Speaker 1: like a shut down month, so then we're really just
50:25
Speaker 1: five weeks from August, and if you look at it
50:28
Speaker 1: that way, by and by August, then we're launching our
50:33
Speaker 1: division previews, where we got you know, every single episode
50:38
Speaker 1: Tuesday Thursday, Tuesday Thursday throughout the month we are doing
50:41
Speaker 1: a division preview and those were amazing last year. We
50:44
Speaker 1: had so much fun doing those. So we're getting there, buddy,
50:47
Speaker 1: We're getting there. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is
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