Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Cameron Bagrie: Economist on the latest BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index, state of the economy

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Cameron Bagrie: Economist on the latest BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index, state of the economy · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I love text like this, Ryan, How can you copyright
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: information once it's in the public domain, it's information to
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: be used, Shirley says Jeff, No, that's not how I mean.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Think of all the songs that are out there or movies.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: You can't just go and to steal them and use them,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: can you. They are copyrighted even though they're in the
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: public domain. The question is whether these bots should be
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: mining that data and then you turning it into something else.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: That's the question also good one here on Ald will
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  Speaker 1: come to that in a second. First, though, we have
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the excellent manufacturing number on Friday. Surgeon services seventy percent
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: of our economy, the engine room of our economy. You
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: could say we've got a number from them yesterday. Bn
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Z Business and Z Performance Services Index for June was
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  Speaker 1: fifty points six. Anything above fifty is expansion. So that
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  Speaker 1: is good, I mean, not sprinting, but running, perhaps in
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  Speaker 1: the right direction. Let's go to Cameron Baggery Independent Economists.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Good morning, Cameron, good morning.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: So thoughts movie in the right direction? You want to
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  Speaker 2: be above fifty because that's saying sort of positive. But
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  Speaker 2: if you look at against the long term average for
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  Speaker 2: that series is around fifty two point seven. So yes,
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  Speaker 2: if you think about that in moding parleance, Yeah, the
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  Speaker 2: car is moving in the right direction, but we're not
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  Speaker 2: exactly sprinding. We're not going at a full pace, but
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  Speaker 2: we're certainly moving towards where we need to be, which
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  Speaker 2: is the positive story.
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  Speaker 1: So Q one good, Q two bad, Q three all
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  Speaker 1: good again.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, we look at the reserve banks what's called now
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  Speaker 2: cast of GDP, which is a collection of all these
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  Speaker 2: sort of economic indicators. You've got the Q two, but
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  Speaker 2: it looks like it was basically a zero quarter. So
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  Speaker 2: we're sort of trying to dodge a bit of a
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  Speaker 2: bullet around that. Q two before the accident was going
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  Speaker 2: up around her moose. If you look at a lot
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  Speaker 2: of these time the indicators, they're going to flow into
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  Speaker 2: Q three as well. And the Reserve banks now cast
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  Speaker 2: estimate for Q three GDPs around six zero point six
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  Speaker 2: zero point seven percent for the quarter. It's a diversion.
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  Speaker 2: Are we getting back on tracks?
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  Speaker 1: Some of the banks reckon we'll do two percent GDP
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  Speaker 1: this year, and they reckon inflation. It's very unemployment rate,
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  Speaker 1: We'll still stay out there quite high. What do you think?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, So if you look what we get for Q
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  Speaker 2: one and pointy eight flat for Q two. If we
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  Speaker 2: get a save point six point seven for Q three,
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  Speaker 2: the point five point six for Q four, you're going
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  Speaker 2: to be up in the two percent suit of zone.
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  Speaker 2: Now that that's respectable, that's broad the inline with what
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  Speaker 2: we call the economic speed limit of this economy and
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  Speaker 2: supply side capacity. Will we start to see the unemployment
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  Speaker 2: rate move down immediately in Q three with the economy
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  Speaker 2: moving up? The answer is no, There will be more
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  Speaker 2: like the Q four story. So I think we're getting
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  Speaker 2: a little bit closer to an infliction point for the
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  Speaker 2: job market, But the job market tends to try with
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  Speaker 2: the general economy. If the general economy is just turning
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  Speaker 2: as we speak, which is what we think it is,
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  Speaker 2: and the data is starting to show there, they expect
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  Speaker 2: job creation growth to come with about a three to
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  Speaker 2: four month leg.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Begrey, founder of Bager Economics, Good to have you
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  Speaker 1: on the show. As always. For more from earlier edition
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: with Ryan Bridge, listen live to News Talk Set B
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: from five a m. Weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.