Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Ep. 670 Top Altcoin ETFs & The Value of Meme Coin IP with Canary Capital

Transcript

Ep. 670 Top Altcoin ETFs & The Value of Meme Coin IP with Canary Capital · CRYPTO 101

0:09
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, everybody.
0:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to another episode of the crypto one-on-one podcast.
0:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your co-host, Bryce, as always, joined by my good friend, Brendan.
0:18
[SPEAKER_01]: How are you doing, Brendan?
0:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm doing good.
0:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm excited.
0:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the crypto market is on fire.
0:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the probably most interesting spots in the crypto space, Bryce, are all these ETFs.
0:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're coming out of the woodworks, they're left to right, and, you know, who better to talk about that than someone who's actually filing for them themselves?
0:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
0:39
[SPEAKER_01]: We have a great great guest joining us today.
0:43
[SPEAKER_01]: The CEO of Canary Capital, Stephen McClurg.
0:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Stephen, thank you for joining us and how are you doing?
0:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm fantastic.
0:51
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a beautiful day in Santa Monica.
0:54
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a beautiful day.
0:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm over here on the West Coast as well.
0:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm super excited because we get bull market vibes everywhere.
1:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Things are, you know, in the altcoin world and the Bitcoin world, Ethereum, things are moving up and to the right, both in terms of ETF inflows.
1:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I know Ethereum, you know, broke some new all times.
1:13
[SPEAKER_01]: all-time records of daily inflows and weekly inflows.
1:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So that was a big push.
1:20
[SPEAKER_01]: And all these, there's a flurry of altcoin ETFs that are coming out as well that you're backing some and we want to learn all about that.
1:28
[SPEAKER_01]: But before we dive into kind of what's going on right now in the immediate term, we want to know a little bit about who you are in the founding of Canary Capital and what the mission is and what you guys are up to as market participants.
1:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, absolutely.
1:42
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, maybe go back in time a little bit of my background.
1:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I did come from traditional finance as a bond manager and a bond trader for years.
1:52
[SPEAKER_02]: I spent most of my career at Guggenheim.
1:54
[SPEAKER_02]: And then in about twenty sixteen, I just noticed that the bond market was at the top.
2:00
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we've gone through a generational bull market in bonds.
2:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Twenty sixteen of my opinion was the top.
2:06
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of people say that
2:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Twenty-twenty was the top, but twenty-twenty was a little bit more of a anomaly.
2:13
[SPEAKER_02]: And I decided that it was time to get into crypto slash blockchain full-time.
2:23
[SPEAKER_02]: left my job, and decided to kind of go all in.
2:28
[SPEAKER_02]: So I did.
2:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, talk about just a generational call, just like, you know, short bonds long-crypto at the very peak, bet your entire life on it.
2:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I just want to comment that that is a bold move.
2:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I love that.
2:42
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a scary move, actually.
2:43
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I didn't know.
2:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Very precious.
2:47
[SPEAKER_02]: But all signs pointed to that.
2:50
[SPEAKER_02]: So we went all in and was able to do a lot of cool things and tokenization and ETFs, a family company called Valpery that launched some of the first Bitcoin-related ETFs.
3:04
[SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, I'm not even really an ETF person.
3:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I managed ETFs at Duganheim and created a lot of them there, but really my background is active management.
3:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Throughout this whole process, I've run crypto hedge funds.
3:19
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's really what I enjoy, what I spend a lot of time doing, but when I see opportunities coming from a structured credit background, that's really all ETF is a structured securities.
3:31
[SPEAKER_02]: So try to come up with different ideas and methodologies to put something in the market that people want.
3:39
[SPEAKER_02]: and fast forward to a canary.
3:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So after Balkyrie, at first I just thought I was going to write off in the Sunset and in a BALSEP timber of last year, I saw an opportunity.
3:55
[SPEAKER_02]: I started seeing the opportunity as early as August, but I was
4:02
[SPEAKER_02]: running my fund, which is really the only thing I was planning on doing.
4:06
[SPEAKER_02]: And saw this opportunity when Trump got shot, I said he's going to win, and everything's going to change in crypto.
4:14
[SPEAKER_02]: And I could be absolutely wrong, but the odds just moved to our favor.
4:21
[SPEAKER_02]: So I started, so as September, I decided to start filing ETFs that weren't Bitcoin-Eath-related, thinking that they might get approved this year, you know, twenty-twenty-five.
4:34
[SPEAKER_02]: They haven't been approved yet, but I still have high hopes that we're going to see a lot of approvals coming this year.
4:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Wow.
4:42
[SPEAKER_00]: What has it been like?
4:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you were helping launch one of the first US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
4:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you're filing for all these different kinds of altcoin ETFs.
4:53
[SPEAKER_00]: What have you seen changed?
4:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Like what has changed from the first of these filings to now seeing all different sorts of altcoin
5:01
[SPEAKER_00]: ETF applications kind of become the norm.
5:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
5:04
[SPEAKER_02]: So there are really two things.
5:07
[SPEAKER_02]: First of all, for the longest time, I thought that Bitcoin was really going to be the only thing that institutional investors would want and investors in the ETF markets want.
5:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And as a matter of fact, when everybody started filing for ETH ETFs, I passed because I just didn't see a strong demand for ETH.
5:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, there has been
5:29
[SPEAKER_02]: But when you have black rock and fidelity in the mix, it's really hard to compete with those two shops and sure enough, and the beginning, it did take a little bit before it caught on.
5:44
[SPEAKER_02]: But as it started catching on, I skipped over E if and I was like, it's time to move on to the next iteration of level ones.
5:54
[SPEAKER_02]: So really started focusing on the protocols that I thought would
6:01
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, really be the future of protocols.
6:05
[SPEAKER_02]: So looking at things like salana, XRP, sweet, say, injective, just to name a few H bar.
6:14
[SPEAKER_02]: And I really saw those as having a lot of demand and markets like Japan and Korea, which by the way, Japan and Korea, you cannot have crypto ETFs right now.
6:25
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you look at a lot of the flows coming into the existing crypto ETFs in the US, a lot comes from Japan Korea and even UAE.
6:34
[SPEAKER_02]: And you might ask, well, why don't you try to
6:37
[SPEAKER_02]: launch a DTF in UAE.
6:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's such a small market.
6:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody in the UAE just buys the US and there's really no tax advantage to buying things in their own exchange.
6:48
[SPEAKER_02]: So everything, all the clothes going into the US.
6:51
[SPEAKER_02]: So what I've really been focusing on is, okay, what's popular globally?
6:56
[SPEAKER_02]: And not just popular in the US, because sometimes you put blinders on, you know, we're in the US, we're like, well, why do you need Bitcoin?
7:02
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got an amazing making system here.
7:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, the rest of the world doesn't, right?
7:06
[SPEAKER_02]: or, you know, why do you need privacy tokens like Manera because, you know, they're illegal here where there's a lot of places around the world that have dictators that are trying to take your money.
7:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So privacy tokens are pretty amazing and a lot of jurisdictions.
7:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm really focused on, you know, what is great on a global perspective?
7:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's one of the things that I'm focusing on and one of the things that have changed as that is that view.
7:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And the second thing that has changed is the current administration and the current SEC.
7:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, we haven't seen movement yet.
7:39
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like they're kind of dragging it out a little bit.
7:42
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we should have seen some ETFs by now.
7:45
[SPEAKER_02]: But I do believe that we will get there soon.
7:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Wow, there is so much to unpack there from the generational kind of move short bonds long crypto, which is, again, has proved to be quite present to really, you know, studying the landscape and saying, you know what, Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum ETFs, those are well-grocked, they're the best products out there right now in the ETF world for crypto, but there's competitive landscape.
8:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Where's the blank space?
8:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Where's the blue ocean?
8:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And you decided, Altcoin ETFs.
8:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And so tell us a little bit about what goes into that process of deciding what ETF you're going to file for.
8:27
[SPEAKER_01]: for which underlying asset, I guess is what I mean, because I think the first one was H bar.
8:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's several others, I believe.
8:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So it tells a little bit about that discovery process and the underwriting process, I guess, if you can call it that.
8:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
8:43
[SPEAKER_02]: And just to tell a little bit about the way that I think about product, right?
8:46
[SPEAKER_02]: I think about product management.
8:50
[SPEAKER_02]: how to launch a slate of products and not just one or two.
8:54
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you think about them like this.
8:56
[SPEAKER_02]: So in a slate, you're going to probably pick two or three that are, you think you're going to be guaranteed winners.
9:02
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not always.
9:04
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you choose some that you think are going to be steady earners and then you choose some that are
9:08
[SPEAKER_02]: a little bit more risky, you know, but if they work out, they can be grand swamps.
9:14
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's the way that I think about product and of course, we've launched about a say, we've filed about a dozen ETFs.
9:23
[SPEAKER_02]: So some of the things that I look for, the ones is like, okay, which ones are going to be very quick for financial advisors and financial institutions to complete due diligence.
9:35
[SPEAKER_02]: They've been around for a long time.
9:38
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to get their quick, right?
9:39
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's going to be your XOP, your H bar, and your salon, and even like point.
9:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, they all have futures markets, they all have long histories of their blockchains, a salon, and so much, but they're large.
9:53
[SPEAKER_02]: So those are the ones that, in my opinion, are the four kind of slam dots, you know, I mean, you know, a lot of people question my, my, my, my like coin.
10:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And I said, look, and this was in the prior administration.
10:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I said, look, Gary Gensler said, the Lightpoint's not security.
10:09
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to be going through.
10:12
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's go.
10:13
[SPEAKER_02]: And of course, Lightpoint is just a very well-known chain.
10:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Charlie Lee, the creator, is one of the most well-known people in crypto of all time.
10:23
[SPEAKER_02]: So I do think that there's like a good brand there and a good product there.
10:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Same thing with H bar, but I was like, well, what's
10:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Some people even know what age bar was, but what's interesting about age bar is that even though Gary incident specifically say, it's not a security, they did everything as if it was a commodity, right?
10:45
[SPEAKER_02]: So, so think about this.
10:46
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of foundations that have launched blockchains and they set up this Swiss foundation and they act as if it's a security and they think they're being cautious, but when you act as if it's a security,
10:58
[SPEAKER_02]: then the SEC could interpret that to be a security.
11:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Interesting.
11:02
[SPEAKER_02]: HBAR acted as if it was a commodity and even filed with the CFTC every time it released tokens.
11:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, everything they did was right.
11:08
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, there's no question that this is a commodity.
11:12
[SPEAKER_02]: So I believe it would be one of the first ones.
11:13
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I'm a futures market.
11:15
[SPEAKER_02]: which not many not many do in the US.
11:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And they've been around for a long time.
11:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember being at consensus.
11:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was twenty eighteen.
11:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was in a little hotel room and they were, you know, talking about hash graph and hadera and all this kind of stuff.
11:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And there was, you know, some new apps that were being built on it.
11:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And this was, you know,
11:34
[SPEAKER_01]: you know way way way way back in the day and then you know the bear market came and wiped out a lot of competition but they continue to grind and we had you know man's and Lehman on the podcast several times as well talking about all the amazing things they're doing and so h bar is one that you know I'm really excited about but
11:54
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, there's something that you know, H bar and sui and all these different cryptos have that I think is really interesting and it's a staking yield.
12:03
[SPEAKER_01]: It's an in kind sort of yield that allows you to basically not just hold on to an asset like a pet rock and hope it goes up, but actually have some kind of income that it's generating based on, you know, the value that you're providing to the network to secure it and to operate it and so on.
12:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And so
12:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you mentioned, there's been a little bit of a hold-up here at the SEC.
12:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And I wanted to get your thoughts, your comments, as much as you are legally allowed to speak to it.
12:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the Staking ETF, or sorry, the theory of ETF with Staking seemed like it was approved, but then initially immediately stayed.
12:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So they paused the approval.
12:42
[SPEAKER_01]: What's going on with Staking in ETFs?
12:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it going to happen?
12:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it not going to happen?
12:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Why is there such a debacle?
12:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
12:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Look, anything could happen, right?
12:55
[SPEAKER_02]: But I do believe it's going to happen.
12:57
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's one of the reasons why we focused on our next iteration of filings on tokens that do have proof of stake and that have a significant stake in yield.
13:11
[SPEAKER_02]: One of the things that makes people
13:15
[SPEAKER_02]: I guess not understand Bitcoin so much is because they don't understand the transaction that happens in the background because it all happens with Bitcoin mining companies and even the word mining is confusing and then really
13:31
[SPEAKER_02]: who's processing the transactions are the mining pools, and people really don't understand it.
13:37
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, those that are deep in the technology understand it.
13:42
[SPEAKER_02]: But when you talk about a network, let's just use SWE as an example.
13:48
[SPEAKER_02]: And you talk about a network like SWE and you have nodes that process transactions and you get money for processing those transactions.
13:58
[SPEAKER_02]: That makes sense, traditional financial services.
14:01
[SPEAKER_02]: And when you can actually participate in staking your SWE against someone's validator,
14:08
[SPEAKER_02]: then and you get rewarded for that it just makes more sense.
14:13
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's it gets you one step closer to like I can touch and feel it even though you really can, but you can actually see the stake of rewards coming into your account.
14:24
[SPEAKER_02]: So the you know the
14:26
[SPEAKER_02]: validators are super important to not just the network, but also to understanding the network.
14:34
[SPEAKER_02]: And then for regular pedestrians to understanding that, oh, I can make extra money, it's extra yield because I am a participant in the network.
14:42
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's really important.
14:43
[SPEAKER_02]: But look, when it comes to the SEC, what I think they're trying to do,
14:48
[SPEAKER_02]: You've probably seen a lot of comments come through from some of the issuers of Eve and then of course, some of the other tokens as well when it comes to staking.
14:56
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think what they're really trying to do is take the risk out of the markets for that and understand it more and make sure that all the issuers understand their own risk and what's going to happen when they start offering that yield because there is risk, right?
15:14
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you could you could stake to a validator and get slashed.
15:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, then what happens to all the tokens sitting in the ETF, right?
15:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So there's got to be a policy and those policies have to be reviewed and it's taking a little longer than I think a lot of people have hoped, but it's but it's super important to make sure that, you know, it doesn't affect capital markets in a negative way.
15:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's really one of the reasons why we're seeing so many inflows right now.
15:36
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like I'm kind of a proponent of like the markets are kind of the first to know about the news before the news even knows the news and like Ethereum is pumping through the roof right now.
15:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Like a lot of capital flows are showing like you know Bitcoin dominance falling Ethereum dominance rising like some of these records like I think the market's sniffing out that like these things are going to get approved.
15:58
[SPEAKER_01]: The stake in yield is going to come.
16:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's going to be really, really interesting, but like it just seems to like kind of validate one of the reasons why the market is pumping right now.
16:08
[SPEAKER_01]: But no, no question really on that.
16:10
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't know, Brendan, if you have a question on anything that we were talking about with the stake in stuff, but it's just interesting because like I think you're right, it's going to happen and the market seems to be pricing that in right now.
16:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and when we when we look at staking like that sets the precedent like when you look at staking as a whole here almost every altcoin nowadays is proof of stake.
16:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So if a theory can get approved first set the standard then all these other ETF applications that are going to follow the majority of them are proof of stake.
16:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Then that means that it opens up the door for staking on all those
16:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think a lot of people are waiting here and they're watching this.
16:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Like Robinhood, for example, obviously they didn't add staking to their ETFs, but they went ahead and added staking to Ethereum in Solano, which is something that they hadn't done previously.
16:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And so it's because the demand for staking is there.
17:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It's very clear that people want this institutions, want it like everybody wants this kind of a thing.
17:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think what we're seeing right now is the prep work.
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: There's also been a bunch of back and forth between, you know, a lot of like yourself and a lot of these other ETF providers with the SEC.
17:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I follow the Bloomberg Intelligence guys.
17:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Eric, I think it's about Tunis or about Tunis.
17:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And
17:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm saying safe for it and they're constantly saying like oh this was amended this is back and forth back and forth and it's just from everyone and so I do think we're in the final stages before we we see this thing come the fruition and I just don't see why it would be held that much longer especially when there is just so much positive crypto regulation out there but
17:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, we have a lot of these other ETFs.
17:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I know over at Canary, you all have applied for, like you said, like H bar and Sui and Solana, XRP Litecoin, and two of the ones that still got to me recently were Pengu and injective.
17:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And I've got to ask about Pengu because I mean, listen, this thing.
18:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Launched.
18:05
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a big and NFTs.
18:07
[SPEAKER_00]: The token launched.
18:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You all filed for this on March, twentieth, right?
18:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's pretty early on.
18:13
[SPEAKER_00]: You could have looked at it today and said, Oh, well, they will have filed because of this and that.
18:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It's up a thousand percent now in the last couple of months.
18:19
[SPEAKER_00]: But you all filed before this just massive climb happened.
18:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Like what brought Pengu on to your radar?
18:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And from my knowledge, you all were the first to apply for a Penguin ETF.
18:33
[SPEAKER_01]: They actually set the bottom.
18:35
[SPEAKER_01]: They buy where they announced it and the market has not gone lower since your announcement, but anyhow.
18:40
[SPEAKER_01]: That's awesome.
18:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's really two letters, IP.
18:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm a big believer in investing in IP.
18:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And maybe I should deck up until you're a little bit more about my background.
18:58
[SPEAKER_02]: I actually took a step away from traditional finance and worked at electronic arts for a couple of years.
19:04
[SPEAKER_02]: And was focused on purchasing IP, launching IP partnering with partners.
19:13
[SPEAKER_02]: And I know the power of a strong IP behind a brand and behind a game or behind a product.
19:21
[SPEAKER_02]: And then even at Guggenheim when,
19:24
[SPEAKER_02]: after the financial crisis and, you know, yields spite and then they went down to the bottom.
19:31
[SPEAKER_02]: And it became very difficult to find good, high-yielding bonds.
19:35
[SPEAKER_02]: We had to do something for our clients.
19:36
[SPEAKER_02]: So I got very involved in purchasing IT.
19:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So we did everything from buying the Dodgers.
19:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And at the time, nobody had to look at a sports team for anything other than, like, how much can a charge for parking spots?
19:51
[SPEAKER_02]: What about hot dogs?
19:52
[SPEAKER_02]: What about beer?
19:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are the things in butts and seats.
19:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are things that matter.
19:56
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's what everybody's models were on.
19:58
[SPEAKER_02]: our model was based on intellectual property and entertainment rights and we really got into that game really early looking at various various types of IP whether you know movies or
20:13
[SPEAKER_02]: film or music, and really got involved in a lot of different types of IP sports, of course.
20:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So I understand the value of IP and brands, and Pingo, or Pujiping ones, is the ultimate IP in crypto.
20:32
[SPEAKER_02]: There's not even a second best.
20:35
[SPEAKER_02]: And a lot of people like Mike pointed things like, well, you know, you got Ponds, you've got board-aids, which did a really good job of, but the problem with board-aids, it's very exclusive, right?
20:44
[SPEAKER_02]: I see board-aids as like a country club, you know?
20:49
[SPEAKER_02]: When I walk around town, I see people with their country club shirts, their polos, their hats, and everybody, you know, to let everybody know which country club they're a member of, you know, and that's exclusive.
20:58
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what Bordeaks was.
20:59
[SPEAKER_02]: It was, hey, I'm in an exclusive club.
21:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at my Bordeaks.
21:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at my profile.
21:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at the clothes that I'm wearing.
21:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Exclusive.
21:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Pudgy Pinguins is a
21:13
[SPEAKER_02]: IP that was created for a broad audience.
21:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So not just selling NFTs, but they also have physical merchandise.
21:20
[SPEAKER_02]: They've got entertainment online on YouTube and they've done an amazing job of creating a high quality IP
21:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, there's nobody even, nobody comes close to second as far as the value of that IP.
21:41
[SPEAKER_02]: And I also like innovation in financial products.
21:45
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I mean, it's really easy to pump out a bunch of boring single token ETFs that might do well.
21:52
[SPEAKER_02]: But this is something that's a little bit different.
21:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And nobody's tried to put NFT into an ETF yet.
21:59
[SPEAKER_02]: By the way, I mean, it's hard to get.
22:01
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to say, fifteen years ago, I was working on a fine art ETF because a lot of our clients at the time were invested in fine art and I was like, what if we could do this in ETF?
22:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Very difficult.
22:14
[SPEAKER_02]: NFTs make it very easy because of the fungability.
22:17
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I wanted to do something NFT related and I wanted to be attached to an IP that was highly valuable and the two worlds combined.
22:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's really, really all it was.
22:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I love it.
22:32
[SPEAKER_01]: It's another bold bet and I think you're right, you know, I had previously for the first, you know, eight years of my time here in crypto.
22:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, you know, all about the fundamentals and all that kind of stuff and then meme coins burst on the scene, maybe three or four years ago and I was like,
22:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll never touch it.
22:49
[SPEAKER_01]: This is cancer to the industry and so on and so forth.
22:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And then all my followers and listeners would know that like back in, I think July or something, you know, as we started to hire more and more people around here and people that I'm hiring are like, yeah,
23:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm making all this money on meme coins.
23:05
[SPEAKER_01]: This is where the future of cryptos go and all these young smart people.
23:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, oh my gosh, I'm the old guy now.
23:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I need to figure out meme coins and my best trade ever in my life still running is a meme coin in terms of dollars made.
23:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it's like
23:22
[SPEAKER_01]: That's just beginners luck right there for memecoin investment.
23:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I got bit by the bug and now I'm like, yeah, this stuff is super revolutionary just because it's all about monetizing attention and monetizing community and it's just in the same way that Netflix really in Facebook, all these new ways of valuing stocks.
23:45
[SPEAKER_01]: People were like, how do we do a discount and cash flow on Facebook or whatever?
23:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Does that really capture
23:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Or like a cap M like does that really capture like the upside here or like the investment case?
23:55
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like you need to start monitoring like valuing like what the attention was and like all the different things that you said with IP is like baseball stadiums used to think about like what are the hard assets but you're like there's so much soft value or intangible value and like that is not really properly being priced
24:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And like, I guess my question to you, like in this weird emalgamation is like, how do you think about like valuing like meme coins, particularly, and Pengu is like kind of a meme coin, but like you said, there's IP attached to it.
24:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So do you see like credence in some of these meme coins that are out there that don't have, you know, Walmart partnerships or whatever, but they do have
24:34
[SPEAKER_01]: rabbit holder basis and people that are like, you know, viral posting and making, you know, content online and really spreading the word like, is that just some kind of fugazzy that's gonna be gone?
24:44
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not gonna talk about that in next year because just the current meta or is there actually staying power to the meme coin stuff?
24:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think there's, I think there's massive staying power.
24:54
[SPEAKER_02]: One of the things that I want to point out is I'm not a big investor in meme coins at all because I typically don't invest the things that I don't understand.
25:04
[SPEAKER_02]: NFTs, I think get a little bit closer to things that I understand.
25:08
[SPEAKER_02]: And to be absolutely clear, I have the only NFT projects I've ever invested in, have been Puggy penguins, and I'll get into that a little bit more.
25:19
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I have personally put a little bit of money into the doge.
25:23
[SPEAKER_02]: I typically, but here's how I look at things, right?
25:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I look at meme coins very similar to baseball cards and there are people that are experts at analyzing baseball cards and knowing exactly what's going to be valuable.
25:37
[SPEAKER_02]: They buy them, they sell them, they make a lot of money doing it and most people lose money.
25:41
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the meme coin market.
25:43
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not smart enough to know which meme coins, or at least I haven't identified one that I believe is going to make a lot of money.
25:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Some of them have, but I don't know that.
25:54
[SPEAKER_02]: It's about my expertise, so I haven't really touched them.
25:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, my kids trade meme coins all the time.
26:01
[SPEAKER_02]: They love it, right?
26:02
[SPEAKER_02]: And I've bought a little bit of doge just to kind of like...
26:05
[SPEAKER_02]: be funny and do it with my kids, right?
26:08
[SPEAKER_02]: But that's really the extent of that.
26:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Doves and a little bit of that bit.
26:12
[SPEAKER_02]: But when it comes to NFTs, I haven't yet seen something that I thought was going to have massive value.
26:20
[SPEAKER_02]: And NFTs more like fine art.
26:22
[SPEAKER_02]: What's the difference between a Warhol and a Rembrandt?
26:24
[SPEAKER_02]: It's perspective and taste or style, right?
26:30
[SPEAKER_02]: It's preference.
26:32
[SPEAKER_02]: And there's a lot of great art that isn't worth a lot of money and there's a lot of bad art that's worth a lot of money, right?
26:39
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's a different type of understanding to be able to identify that.
26:45
[SPEAKER_02]: But what I do understand is IP.
26:46
[SPEAKER_02]: So again, I've invested in ping ones because and and and done thing on ping ones because I understand the IP.
26:56
[SPEAKER_02]: I understand the IP on board eight, so I don't think it's going to have a massive lift like it could, right?
27:06
[SPEAKER_02]: It's too exclusive.
27:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And then there's a few other ones out there that a lot of people think they understand, and I'm sure they understand it, but it's just not anything that I see value in, right?
27:16
[SPEAKER_02]: But I do understand IP, I don't understand art as much, but I can pretend.
27:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I love it.
27:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And so for some of the ETFs that you have filed for and are waiting approvals on for crypto, different altcoins, I'm just curious, when you think about where some of the value is in different blockchain networks, are you guys giving a lot of weight to active addresses or on-chain metrics, that kind of thing, or are there other kind of
27:53
[SPEAKER_01]: metrics that you pay attention to when determining which altcoin ETFs you're going to launch.
27:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's a lot of metrics who pay attention to and it depends on what category of products that we're putting that in.
28:06
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're looking at active wallets, active transactions, real transactions, that's actually really hard one.
28:16
[SPEAKER_02]: There are a few that we've evaluated that way and what that means is they're popular today, right?
28:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I look at Ethereum, and of course, the stats look very good for Ethereum, but it's an older technology, it's slower, it's expensive, and it still is versus a lot of things out there.
28:36
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's probably at its peak.
28:39
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't care so much about what was popular five years ago, and where the developers were five years ago, I care about where they're going.
28:47
[SPEAKER_02]: And then, so of course a lot of the metrics we just described is what's today, what's training upward.
28:53
[SPEAKER_02]: But one of the other things that I look at is, okay, you've, have you launched a main net and how expensive, how fast and, and how secure is it?
29:02
[SPEAKER_02]: And then also where the developers looking to move.
29:05
[SPEAKER_02]: and we're seeing a lot of developers say is a good example, right?
29:10
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of old e-developers are moving over to say because the program language is very similar except it's fast asleep, right?
29:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So, I mean, that's just a good example.
29:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Injective, you brought that up earlier.
29:24
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it's another protocol that is getting a lot of hard looks from developers and people moving on in their building cool things.
29:31
[SPEAKER_02]: So, those are projects that I think are going to have a lot of value in the future.
29:36
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, there's today, there's tomorrow, and then there's further in the future.
29:40
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's how I like to program out our products late based on those factors.
29:48
[SPEAKER_02]: You can't just do a whole bunch of products that were great yesterday.
29:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Right?
29:52
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what you're going to lose tomorrow.
29:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's say that some of these ETFs get approved by the end of the year, do you have any kind of estimates for what these inflows could look like into some of these different altcoin ETFs in terms of like USD?
30:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
30:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, look, I think XRP is probably gonna be the out of the next batch that comes.
30:15
[SPEAKER_02]: It's probably gonna be the largest.
30:18
[SPEAKER_02]: I think XRP does probably three times what's a lot it does.
30:21
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not really very widespread opinion, but
30:24
[SPEAKER_02]: The reality is is they're deep in the financial system and they're focused on building technology for financial rails.
30:35
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you're looking at financial people that are investing in the various ETFs, they're going to understand XRP before they understand Seoul.
30:44
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it will.
30:46
[SPEAKER_01]: We talk a lot of crap on XRP here admittedly.
30:52
[SPEAKER_01]: It's good to get the the bull case for XRP.
30:54
[SPEAKER_01]: If you went mine continuing to to lay it out for us.
30:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, no, absolutely.
30:59
[SPEAKER_02]: No, I've talked a lot of crap about XRP as well, but what I'm what I'm specifically looking at is it is a it is a chain that is, you know, that they are actively designing for financial
31:12
[SPEAKER_02]: They're building stable coins on top of it.
31:14
[SPEAKER_02]: They're building, even if you look at where the company Ripple is going, which is just like consensus, it supports the network.
31:25
[SPEAKER_02]: They're buying a lot of companies in various aspects of financial markets.
31:32
[SPEAKER_02]: So they truly are quietly building these rails for finance.
31:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't think anybody else is going to be able to touch.
31:40
[SPEAKER_02]: And everybody knows about it.
31:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's interesting.
31:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I've always thought, OK, like ripple, to use the XRP ledger or whatever, to use Ripple's technology.
31:52
[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't really even require the XRP token.
31:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And so
31:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I think everybody was like, oh, all the value is going to kind of percolate up to equity holders and not really long term at the crypto layer of XRP.
32:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously there's hundreds of billions of market cap there in XRP now.
32:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it's kind of like a fool's heir and to say, oh, it can never be valuable because it clearly has market value.
32:17
[SPEAKER_01]: But I guess, yeah, we don't need to go into like a whole diet, try about like, you know, XRP and stuff.
32:22
[SPEAKER_01]: But it is interesting when there are equity companies out there, but also have a token and like the founder, you know, Brennan I think was showing on chain, you know, Mr. Chris Larson and is selling, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars of this into the open market over time.
32:39
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if XRP doubles or triples, like it's almost at a trillion dollar market cap.
32:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And it just seems like that's just very constraining.
32:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And so when we kind of take a look at like the investable landscape out there, it's like, you know, Pengu at a two billion dollar market cap with lots of upside potential, you know, why are you going to, you know, opportunity costs is everything's in markets.
33:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So why are you going to like be in something that like,
33:02
[SPEAKER_01]: If it triples, it's going to be at a trillion dollar value.
33:04
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's just when we say we talk crap on it, like not like we don't like the the the guys and the idea and all that stuff, but just from a day to day investment opportunity, that we kind of think about, but we could we could kind of move on unless Brandon had another thought on on that.
33:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I did have a thought, but it kind of stems off what we were talking about.
33:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, what do investors care about?
33:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Because, you know, if we look at this, I think that there's a pretty different investment thesis for like a couple of these different tokens.
33:31
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at Pengu, if you look at XRP, if you look at like Salana or Sue or H bar, like
33:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they stem and not only their mission and what they do, but also where they thrive.
33:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Some have really high developer activity and user activity.
33:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And then others have a really strong retail community behind them.
33:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you look behind XRP and the XRP Army is one of the fiercest forces to ever go up against.
34:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And they have this giant XRP army and then you look at Pengu and it's kind of like bridging the gap here between meme coins and like you said IP and you know even one of my buddies from my hometown is like hey we just had a David Buster's open up and there's a Pudgy penguins thing inside of it and it was so fun to play but you look at this and then you have like IP you have retail community you have actual developer and user activity what do
34:28
[SPEAKER_00]: investors who are looking to put money into these ETFs.
34:31
[SPEAKER_00]: What do they care about the most?
34:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Look, I mean, when it comes to say financial advisors, they're going to look back and they're going to say okay.
34:41
[SPEAKER_02]: How long does this thing been around?
34:43
[SPEAKER_02]: What's the returns?
34:44
[SPEAKER_02]: What have the returns been?
34:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Is there an active community?
34:47
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, they're going to start going through this long due diligence process.
34:51
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think something like solar or XRP is going to be looked at more like an Apple or a Microsoft, whereas
35:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Pingu, which, you know, again, I'm a huge believer, and I see the outside just like you do, given, given, you know, the size of its market cap.
35:08
[SPEAKER_02]: It's still a macro cap slash pre-IPO company, right?
35:12
[SPEAKER_02]: So, there's also a lot of risk as well.
35:15
[SPEAKER_02]: So, like, you know, financial advisors not going to necessarily get behind a Pingu token.
35:21
[SPEAKER_02]: because of its short history and its size, whereas they typically like to come in at the later stages.
35:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's just really, really what it is.
35:34
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not going to take a risk with their clients' money.
35:37
[SPEAKER_02]: But the retail audience, which is much smaller when it comes to dollars that they spend, is going to look at that.
35:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's going to take bigger risk, I'm going to say something.
35:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's different, you know, classifications I would say of, you know, investors definitely like, yeah, like some of the financial advisors wouldn't, but there's plenty of hedge funds that are out there that would certainly look to, you know, either make a market in Pengu or just outright be long or short it.
36:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, it is super, super interesting.
36:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think these products are just going to overall, you know, enhance liquidity and just
36:12
[SPEAKER_01]: be great for the crypto market, but I kind of wanted to zoom out a high level just and get your thoughts on on this new meta.
36:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Dats, right?
36:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've kind of digital asset treasury companies.
36:25
[SPEAKER_01]: People might know him as like corporate treasury companies and like we've talked a little bit tangentially around it during this episode, but I wanted to kind of dive in and particularly on this point, Dats versus ETFs.
36:38
[SPEAKER_01]: because this is like kind of the hot discussion is like, well, are we gonna buy the ETF, or are we gonna buy, you know, the Bitcoin ETF for example, or are we gonna buy micro strategy?
36:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's like kind of the classic example, and then micro strategy says, well, we're like levered Bitcoin.
36:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And so we have operating opportunities to go in a choir more and, you know, they have a lot of like flexibility in the ETF is just like it's just a static structure.
37:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Where does, you know, A, what do you make of the dat boom?
37:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And is it sustainable, maybe?
37:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And B, how should investors broadly think about them in their portfolio like compared to just an ETF?
37:17
[SPEAKER_02]: You look, I mean, I'm investing in some of these, right?
37:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Likewise, I also am going in eyes wide open.
37:27
[SPEAKER_02]: because we're in a bull market and everybody's a genius in a bull market and these things will likely continue to do well.
37:34
[SPEAKER_02]: In a bull market, I don't know how well a lot of them are going to do in a bear market.
37:40
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm cautiously optimistic, but I also, if when I see the change from bull to bear market, which could happen in October, could happen in December, it could happen in any time.
37:54
[SPEAKER_02]: about what it looks like that's going to change.
37:56
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not owning a single one of these.
37:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it makes sense, you know, I think in a bull market, like if you're getting, you know, levered beta or whatever, like really, really, really long crypto, like it's going to look and feel really good in a bull market, but on the downside.
38:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, right.
38:15
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like a double edge.
38:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So what I've leveraged, you're getting twice the returns in a bull market.
38:20
[SPEAKER_02]: twice the loss in a bear market so yeah it also depends on how these are managed and how they're structured I think there's a lot that are going to be just fine if all they're doing is holding a certain cryptocurrency in their treasury as a asset of course
38:37
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it's asset value will go down in a bear market, but if it's one of these, I mean, and I've been pitched some of the words like, yeah, we're going to take Bitcoin, but we're going to, we're going to lend it out and we're going to, or we're going to leverage it up and get extra returns off of it.
38:52
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, yeah, that, that works really well for for Celsius for FTX.
38:58
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not going to be a great look.
39:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a tough game to play.
39:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the ETF game
39:08
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, not to take anything away from it.
39:10
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a more straightforward game, right?
39:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Like with an ETF, you know, exactly what you're getting.
39:15
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's this security one for one, right?
39:17
[SPEAKER_01]: If you have one share of this Bitcoin ETF, it's worth, you know, X amount of Bitcoin.
39:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's a very straightforward thing.
39:25
[SPEAKER_01]: When you introduce, maybe some of this, the operational companies to it, it just confuses things a little bit more.
39:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, great on the way up and potentially damaging on the way down.
39:35
[SPEAKER_01]: But, um, and again, kind of to continue like the zoom out from where we're at in the market.
39:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, there's all these new meadows.
39:40
[SPEAKER_01]: There's all, you know, a lot of money coming in with the ETFs and stuff.
39:44
[SPEAKER_01]: But, but what's really driving kind of crypto market prices?
39:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And, and this is kind of like just in a, in, in wrap up in summary of the discussion we've had today.
39:51
[SPEAKER_01]: There's, there's lots of capital flows coming in.
39:54
[SPEAKER_01]: But what, what really is driving it?
39:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it,
39:57
[SPEAKER_01]: like these inflation fears that Larry Finco go on TV and say Bitcoin could really replace the dollar now based on the debt fears and the inflation fears associated with it or is it kind of like on the other side sort of you know the the you know the tech people saying or is it everything like what why are people coming into crypto so so greatly right now
40:18
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, look, I've used Bitcoin as my savings vehicle for the last ten years.
40:25
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't even really own anything in the bond market anymore.
40:30
[SPEAKER_02]: So Bitcoin is my savings.
40:33
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, just plain and simple to go up and go down, but you know, if you have a long enough time horizon,
40:40
[SPEAKER_02]: And of course, I'm not blind either.
40:44
[SPEAKER_02]: If I see something that could overtake Bitcoin, a lot of people think that Bitcoin is the end all greatest currency of all time, and today it is, to mark it may not be.
40:53
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm trying to be aware of the fact that something could change that, but until then, it is my savings account.
41:02
[SPEAKER_02]: But what's really driving prices right now is flows into the ETFs.
41:08
[SPEAKER_02]: And as these ETFs are out there longer and have more of a track record, they will attract more capital in a more permanent capital, particularly the Bitcoin ETFs and the ETFs in the future or some of the other ones.
41:22
[SPEAKER_02]: The Treasury companies I think are, it's more of a short window of flows coming in.
41:30
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the same hedge funds over and over again that are investing in these.
41:36
[SPEAKER_02]: They're driving the price up.
41:38
[SPEAKER_02]: They're selling out really quickly and they're moving to the next one.
41:41
[SPEAKER_02]: But the price is maintaining because there's people that are buying it on the back end.
41:46
[SPEAKER_02]: That isn't sustainable.
41:49
[SPEAKER_02]: So in the long run, ETF is going to be the preferred vehicle.
41:54
[SPEAKER_02]: In the short run, these treasury companies are definitely going to do well.
41:59
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, in a bear market, I think they lose more money than what an ETF will.
42:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, makes perfect sense.
42:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, Stephen, I wish that we could kind of go all day.
42:13
[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of have a last question and something that we kind of like to, to pose to people if we can.
42:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's just over, you know, you've been in the market a long time and I'm just curious, like,
42:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And I want to say price targets for Bitcoin or anything like that.
42:27
[SPEAKER_01]: But how big could this market get?
42:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Just illustrate for us, you know, somebody told me once that, you know, ask, you know, how big could this market get?
42:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was, well, the internet bubble, uh, adjusted for inflation at its peak, um, would be fifty trillion dollars in today's terms.
42:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the, the Bitcoin bubble,
42:45
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it could be greater than fifty trillion.
42:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was like, wow, that's that's crazy.
42:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And at the time, it was like well under a trillion dollar market gap.
42:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And so do you have any like frameworks for thinking about how high this market could go?
42:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Some people say, you know, it could subsume the market gap of gold.
42:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Like how do you kind of parallel this in your mind?
43:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we'll let you know.
43:02
[SPEAKER_02]: The way that I think about the price of big coin.
43:04
[SPEAKER_02]: By the way, I don't think big coins in a bubble and all right.
43:06
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, so we think it's under price.
43:08
[SPEAKER_02]: But the price of Bitcoin, the way that I see it, the two most important inputs are number one adoption.
43:15
[SPEAKER_02]: And we're mostly getting close to the top of that adoption curve.
43:19
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's why you have prices going from basically a penny to a hundred thousand dollars.
43:24
[SPEAKER_02]: That's your adoption curve.
43:26
[SPEAKER_02]: The second input, and this is the one that's more valuable right now, is now that we're getting close to the top of the adoption curve.
43:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Meaning most people have already, it does that mean most people have already adopted Bitcoin?
43:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, most capital has got it, right?
43:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't think it's hasn't been adopted by a ton of people, but as more and more people come into adopted, it's going to be people with smaller wallets.
43:51
[SPEAKER_02]: right, a lot of the larger wallets are to have.
43:53
[SPEAKER_02]: So you're talking about a few hundred bucks per person.
43:58
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's where we're approaching.
44:00
[SPEAKER_02]: We're in the capital market system.
44:02
[SPEAKER_02]: You're going to continue to get adoption through the capital market system.
44:06
[SPEAKER_02]: But the individual adoption is going to drive the price up a whole lot because there's not a larger wall coming in.
44:13
[SPEAKER_02]: But we're at today is as we're ending our adoption curve
44:19
[SPEAKER_02]: from a dollar perspective, we're more into the, you know, one bit points worth when Bitcoin argument that supply isn't increasing except for what's being released by the network through mining.
44:33
[SPEAKER_02]: So it really has more to do with what everybody else is doing.
44:38
[SPEAKER_02]: So global monetary supply.
44:40
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's the major metric that I look at is global M-II.
44:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And based on that, Bitcoin should be at about one, four, one, fifty.
44:50
[SPEAKER_02]: And once it hits there, it will likely drift upwards with global M-II.
44:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Of course, more adoption will increase the price, but I think that law of large numbers isn't going to be a large percentage there.
45:06
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's really going to follow how much money global economies are willing to print.
45:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, it's a tail as old as time.
45:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It's really what got me into crypto in the very, very, very, very beginning that very first presentation was like, wow, I, you know, at the time, you know, just graduating college, I was like, man, I didn't even know we weren't even on the gold standard anymore.
45:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, who's hiding all this information from me?
45:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you go down the rabbit hole and you're like, they just print money back by it.
45:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Wait, what?
45:35
[SPEAKER_01]: by other debt so we have more debt based on more debt like when does this ever end like how do you opt out and I think you're really right I mean it's once you get to this sort of credit I feel like we're getting to critical mass like for me that hundred k was critical mass where it's like that chain reaction gets too big
45:51
[SPEAKER_01]: to fail.
45:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are very dangerous words, but like it just, you know, it's just too big to like stop the momentum at least.
45:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it feels like we're getting to critical mass.
46:01
[SPEAKER_01]: One hundred K was a big, you know, a big dog to beat.
46:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And once we get to one fifty, like you said, it's like, if we don't have resistance there,
46:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, why is it going to show up at one seventy five or two hundreds?
46:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably just going to keep, you know, eating away slowly grinding higher because it doesn't seem like the central banks are interested in slowing down the issuance of new paper.
46:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And it doesn't even seem like, you know, that we could go down a whole another rabbit hole.
46:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we'll have you back on again.
46:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, to talk about some some interesting dynamics that are going on, but like even with state we didn't even get to talk about stable coins, but like, you know, I think the writing is on the wall that we're about to issue a boatload more debt because they're praising stable coins and fast tracking stable coins and the whole idea is like they could hold
46:47
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, four trillion dollars worth of US bonds.
46:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, it's like they're trying to continue to issue more and more debt.
46:54
[SPEAKER_01]: The stable coins are going to be the buyers of that debt.
46:56
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to export it different countries.
46:58
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be a whole new cycle, a whole new liquidity cycle.
47:02
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be awesome.
47:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to be here for it.
47:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Brendan you'll be here for it.
47:06
[SPEAKER_01]: All the crypto one-on-one listeners will be here for that.
47:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully, hopefully, Stephen, all of the altcoin ETFs that you have filed for by the time we speak next will all be active and trading.
47:19
[SPEAKER_01]: We really appreciate your time.
47:21
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a great period in the market.
47:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Bull Market vibes are high.
47:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Where can people follow along with you, the journey for Canary Capital and some of the stuff if we want to get invested?
47:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, look, I probably have the easiest places for me as Twitter.
47:37
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't post a whole lot, but sometimes I do.
47:40
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's at Stephen McLeard, and then of course, Canary.Capitals or websites.
47:46
[SPEAKER_02]: So you can find that a lot of information there.
47:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Awesome.
47:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, Stephen, thank you so much for joining us here at the Crypto-I-One podcast.
47:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And for everybody at home listening, thank you for joining us, and we'll be back the same time, same place next week with some more great guests.
48:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Take care.