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Black Swans and Red Screens: Navigating the Market Storm · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:02
  It is 5 am here on the West Coast on Saturday , March 7th , 2026 , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
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  I am your host , Penny Pips , and I hope you have your coffee in hand because we have a lot to unpack from a very bumpy week on Wall Street .
• 0:19
  If your portfolio looked a little more red than green yesterday , you are definitely not alone .
• 0:25
  It was a volatile , bearish week that wrapped up yesterday , March 6th , and the mood on the floor was definitely riskoff .
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  Let's start with the big numbers .
• 0:35
  The S&P 500 , which many of you track through the SPY or VOO ETFs , finished Friday at 6,740 .
• 0:44
  That is a drop of over one point three percent for the day and about two percent for the week .
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  Even more concerning for the chartwatchers out there is that the index has broken below its 50day moving average , which is usually a sign that momentum is leaking out of the balloon .
• 1:00
  The Nasdaq , or the QQQ , took an even harder hit , dropping nearly one point six percent to close at 22,387 .
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  Tech was really the epicenter of the pain this week .
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  Meanwhile , the Dow fell just under one percent .
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  So , what exactly happened ?
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  Well , we were hit by two massive events that some analysts are calling black swans .
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  First , the February jobs report was a total shocker .
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  Instead of gaining the fifty thousand jobs that experts expected , the U.S.
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  economy actually lost 92,000 jobs .
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  That pushed unemployment up to 4.4 percent and really put a dent in the soft landing narrative we have all been hoping for .
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  On top of that , we have major geopolitical tension .
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  Operation Epic Fury , involving military operations in Iran , has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz .
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  This sent oil prices flying , with Brent Crude heading toward 84 dollars a barrel .
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  This creates a really tough spot for the Federal Reserve .
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  Usually , a bad jobs report means they would cut interest rates to help the economy , but with oil prices spiking and driving up inflation , they are likely to just pause at their meeting on March 17th .
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  Looking at the sectors , Energy was the only real bright spot .
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  If you were holding the Energy Select Sector SPDR , known as XLE , you saw a boost from those rising oil prices .
• 2:31
  In tech , it was a tale of two cities .
• 2:33
  Marvell Technology , ticker MRVL , was a superstar , jumping over 18 percent on great revenue news .
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  However , the broader tech sector , or XLK , was dragged down by rumors of new export controls on AI chips , which hurt heavy hitters like Nvidia and AMD .
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  On the consumer side , Costco , ticker COST , actually beat earnings , showing us that even when things get tough , people still love their bulk deals .
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  Now , let's talk about what we can actually do with this information .
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  My first recommendation is to look at hedging with gold .
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  Global investors are running for safety , and SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , is a great way to do that .
• 3:15
  Gold has actually breached the 5,100 dollar an ounce level .
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  With the conflict in the Middle East , increasing your GLD allocation could act as a vital insurance policy .
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  Second , while the QQQ is under pressure , do not give up on AI entirely .
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  Focus on quality over momentum .
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  Marvell and Broadcom , ticker AVGO , have shown they can stay strong even in a bad market .
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  I would avoid the broader tech ETF , XLK , for now until we know more about those chip export rules .
• 3:49
  Third , because that jobs report was so weak , the risk of a recession has jumped .
• 3:54
  In times like these , longterm Treasuries are your friend .
• 3:58
  Consider the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , ticker TLT .
• 4:03
  If the economy continues to lose jobs , bond prices usually rise as investors look for safety .
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  Finally , I want to preach a little bit of caution .
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  This is probably not the time to aggressively buy the dip in the broad market using SPY or VTI .
• 4:20
  We saw a technical pattern called Three Black Crows this week , which usually means there is more downside to come .
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  Wait for the market to find a real floor before jumping back in .
• 4:31
  That is all for this morning's update on Spy Trader .
• 4:34
  Stay safe out there , keep an eye on those energy prices , and I will be back in a few hours with more updates .
• 4:41
  I am Penny Pips , and I hope you have a calm and restful Saturday .