Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 517 - 5/21/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 517 - 5/21/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Appelbaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome to. Episode 5. 17 of the all
• 0:18
  systems. Go sports betting podcast
• 0:21
  powered by Rhythm. I am your host, Josh.
• 0:24
  Appelbaum What's going on, everyone?
• 0:30
  Happy Thirsty Thursday, another day.
• 0:33
  Here in the arena, guys. But of course, Thirsty Thursday.
• 0:36
  You know what that means? Only a couple days away.
• 0:38
  From another big weekend here. In the sports betting arena and.
• 0:41
  We got a lot to. Get to on today's podcast.
• 0:43
  I have a three pack of sweats for you and you're saying.
• 0:46
  OK, yeah, baseball, right? No, no, no, not so.
• 0:49
  Fast I got 2 baseball. Games I got a.
• 0:51
  Dog in a favorite. Again, it's a.
• 0:53
  Very short slate today. There's only seven games
• 0:54
  overall. There's a couple.
• 0:56
  Day games going on, so it's kind of slim.
• 0:58
  Pickens in MLB, but. Did find 2 games that look
• 1:01
  pretty sharp with some good line moves.
• 1:03
  As well as bet. Splits and system matches.
• 1:06
  And then also I got an NBA. Play for you, I know.
• 1:09
  It's been a while since we dabbled in the NBA.
• 1:11
  But I noticed a line. Move and I noticed.
• 1:14
  This that this line move corresponded with all three
• 1:17
  rhythm. Recommendations and one of which
• 1:19
  was a green star smart signal so.
• 1:22
  Anytime the market you know aligns with rhythm, that tells
• 1:25
  me that, hey, it's worth. Worth.
• 1:27
  Firing on and worth taking a shot on, so I do.
• 1:29
  Have a play on Cavs Knicks Game 2 for tonight.
• 1:33
  Who knows, maybe the maybe the Cavs.
• 1:35
  Will get some revenge or. Maybe the Knicks will.
• 1:37
  Keep rolling, remember that. Game one was unbelievable.
• 1:39
  Where the Knicks were, I think was it. 99.9%.
• 1:43
  Probability that the Cavs would. Win up by like 20 points with 7
• 1:47
  minutes, 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter and then the
• 1:49
  Knicks obviously come back and had that.
• 1:51
  Incredible. Incredible.
• 1:53
  Win, but I'm actually. Going to be looking toward the
• 1:55
  total tonight, so I'll give you my play.
• 1:56
  For Cavs, Knicks in the NBA. Along with a couple plays.
• 2:00
  Here in Major League Baseball, so.
• 2:02
  Goal, as always, a three pack, even though it's.
• 2:04
  Some MLB, some NBA. Again, the goal does not change.
• 2:08
  We're trying to eke out a two and one and have a winning day
• 2:10
  here. Now looking back to our last
• 2:12
  night, guys, that's exactly what we did. 2 and 1 + 0.36 units.
• 2:17
  Start off the. Night pretty good with the.
• 2:18
  Dodgers 4. To nothing win over San Diego
• 2:22
  and man if if you didn't love. Show Otani.
• 2:24
  I, I, I'll be honest with you guys, I don't.
• 2:26
  Remember sweating or watching a full you know, atani start on
• 2:29
  the mound in in quite a while. But he was just absolutely.
• 2:32
  Dominant. He got into a.
• 2:33
  Little bit of a jam. In the 5th inning and.
• 2:35
  Induced a double playground ball to get out of it and screamed.
• 2:38
  Let's go. And you can tell that got him.
• 2:40
  Fired up with the Dodgers even though it.
• 2:42
  Was a bigger number came. Through with A4.
• 2:45
  Nothing win over San Diego. Then also we got the.
• 2:48
  A's. The A's were an incredible sweat
• 2:50
  because they were looking. Dead Dead is a doornail and then
• 2:53
  they go to the the top. Of the 9th inning.
• 2:56
  And This is why baseball. You kind of just got to keep
• 2:58
  grinding because. You know, there are times I
• 3:01
  remember the. Was it the?
• 3:02
  Pirates last week. Where they had a lead.
• 3:04
  Maybe it was 2 weeks. Ago, but they had a lead two
• 3:06
  runs in the in the 9th inning and I'll who was it?
• 3:10
  What the heck was the guy's name anyway?
• 3:12
  I forget, but he he. Blew it and.
• 3:14
  We lost an extra innings. But then sometimes.
• 3:16
  It goes the other. Way and it.
• 3:17
  Works out your way. And the A's.
• 3:19
  Did it 6:00 to. 5 coming from behind.
• 3:22
  In extra innings and the. Hero of that game was Jeff
• 3:25
  McNeil, The. Former New York Met.
• 3:28
  Because the A. 'S were down 4 to. 5:00 to 4:00.
• 3:31
  In the top of the ninth inning and Jeff.
• 3:33
  McNeil hits a solo. Home run to right to tie the
• 3:35
  game. And actually should have gotten.
• 3:37
  More runs because. There is a ball.
• 3:38
  That was hitting the gap by Soderstrom.
• 3:41
  Into the left field gap. In.
• 3:44
  Both Trout and. Josh Low or Lau it?
• 3:47
  Went right by him and they probably.
• 3:49
  Should have scored but. Geloff couldn't get the guy.
• 3:51
  Across but then. Hogan was the name Hogan.
• 3:53
  Hero Heroes Hogan's hero. Whatever his name, Lefty came in
• 3:57
  and shut the. Door got a huge.
• 3:58
  Last out against Solaire. But the A's.
• 4:01
  Coming from behind, thought that was a loser turn into a winner.
• 4:04
  You love seeing that. So the A's came through.
• 4:06
  The Dodgers came through. Only loser was the Yankees.
• 4:09
  -170. They lost 2 to one against
• 4:12
  Toronto. Just couldn't do.
• 4:13
  Anything offensively and. Schlittler actually pitched
• 4:16
  pretty well, but you savage. Was it was even better.
• 4:19
  They made it interesting. They're late, had some
• 4:21
  opportunities but really couldn't do anything
• 4:23
  offensively. Lost 2 to one against the.
• 4:26
  Jays, but this is. Why we spent the early.
• 4:29
  Portion of the pod yesterday talking about the importance of
• 4:31
  bet to risk. First bet.
• 4:32
  To win. Because the the Yankees game.
• 4:35
  They were -170. Might have even.
• 4:38
  Seen them a little. Bit higher like minus. 170. 5 or
• 4:40
  even -180. And why do I mention that?
• 4:43
  Because the Yankees ended up losing so.
• 4:46
  To put it into perspective, and really.
• 4:47
  Drive home this point. If you had bet the Yankees to
• 4:50
  win, that means you're betting to win a unit you had to risk
• 4:53
  1.7 units so. Instead of just.
• 4:57
  Betting to risk, risking. Your one unit.
• 4:59
  You know, getting. What was that?
• 5:00
  .6 units back. .7 Something like that.
• 5:03
  If you had bet to win, you lost 1.7 units if you bet.
• 5:06
  To risk, which is what I always. Recommend you lost one unit, so
• 5:10
  both ways you're losing. But I'd rather I'd rather lose.
• 5:14
  10 bucks instead of 17. Bucks.
• 5:15
  What do you think, guys? But again, that's the whole
• 5:17
  point. Of betting to risk, not betting
• 5:20
  to win it. Saves you when.
• 5:21
  You're betting a favorite. And then also.
• 5:23
  You know, you're on a dog, you risk a unit, you're going to get
• 5:25
  more back. I'll be the way, guys. 2 and 1 +
• 5:27
  0. .36 units. Dodgers and A's were huge,
• 5:30
  Yankees let us down, but still we achieved our goal with a
• 5:34
  winning night. So before we dive in our sweats
• 5:36
  here for tonight guys. I just wanted to offer a quick.
• 5:39
  Update on Juice Reel. Because as you know, I mentioned
• 5:41
  this a little. Bit ago.
• 5:43
  But I'm so thankful for those of you who pay for the Juice Reel.
• 5:47
  All systems go, best bet picks. That's a way to support the.
• 5:49
  Pod. It's a tip jar.
• 5:51
  There's a new feature. You can download Juice Reel.
• 5:54
  And. Update the app and Ricky.
• 5:55
  Gold and the whole team have just totally revamped.
• 5:57
  The app, it looks fantastic. But I I just noticed the ability
• 6:01
  to offer not just a week. 'S worth of best bets.
• 6:05
  But now you can get. A month's worth.
• 6:07
  Or even a year's. Worth of best bets.
• 6:10
  So if you were unaware, I did raise the rate on the best bets.
• 6:14
  From $4.99 a week to $9.90. Nine cents a week.
• 6:19
  That comes to a dollar. And $0.42 a day.
• 6:22
  For insights and best bets and supporting the pod and getting
• 6:25
  the plays earlier in the day. But there are two more
• 6:28
  opportunities here to support the.
• 6:30
  Pod and also. For you to save some money, you
• 6:33
  can now get. A month's worth.
• 6:35
  Of all. Systems go best bet picks.
• 6:37
  For $24.99 that is 35% off that comes to. $0.83 a day.
• 6:45
  You also have the ability to buy a year's.
• 6:47
  Worth of all. Systems go best bet picks.
• 6:50
  For $199.99. That is 60.
• 6:54
  Percent off and that comes to $0.55 a day.
• 6:58
  So hopefully these month and. Year opportunities.
• 7:02
  Could be worth it for you guys if you want to.
• 7:03
  Support the pod, save a little. Money and hopefully that's good
• 7:07
  for you and good for me, but I just want you guys to know that
• 7:09
  there's. Always the seven day free trial.
• 7:11
  Again, you can go weekly. $9.90. Nine cents a week you can go
• 7:15
  monthly. Now 2499.
• 7:17
  And yearly 100. And 99 and $0.99, so that is.
• 7:21
  Available to you on the Juice Reel app.
• 7:24
  If you just go to. Buy sellers.
• 7:27
  It's either buy or sell sellers. But then, just a little.
• 7:30
  Box where you can put it whenever you want.
• 7:31
  Just put in. ASG it'll.
• 7:33
  Take you right to my page and give you those options.
• 7:35
  But as always, I want to say thank you to those of you who
• 7:38
  support the pod by getting those best bet.
• 7:40
  Picks so without further ado. Let's dive into our.
• 7:43
  Sweats here for today guys I want to start with.
• 7:45
  MLB just because. Hey, that's what we got our
• 7:47
  finger on the pulse. Of right now.
• 7:49
  And I'm going to. Save the NBA best bet.
• 7:51
  For the very end. So we'll suspense it a little
• 7:54
  bit and give you something to stick around.
• 7:55
  For but. Looking toward today only 7.
• 7:58
  Games. I'm going.
• 7:59
  To look toward a couple. Late games here couple 9:30.
• 8:02
  9:40 PM Eastern Time games I want to start.
• 8:05
  Off with the Athletics and the LA Angels.
• 8:07
  Going right back to. The scene of the crime.
• 8:09
  I don't know what it is about this series, but.
• 8:11
  I played the Angels couple days ago, they let us down play the
• 8:14
  A's last night, they came through, found another sharp
• 8:16
  move here for tonight. So if we can get a winner.
• 8:19
  So, 9:38 PM. Eastern Time first pitch, A's at
• 8:23
  the. Angels This is the final game of
• 8:25
  a four-game. Set the Angels, who are 17 and
• 8:27
  33. They won the opener 2:00 to
• 8:29
  1:00. Remember, they were down.
• 8:30
  One nothing, getting no hit. Came back and walked it off on a
• 8:33
  Zach Netto home run coming. Through as a + 110 home dog.
• 8:37
  Then the A's who? Are 25 and 20.
• 8:39
  Four. They won the second game 14 to
• 8:41
  6. As a + 120 road dog and they won
• 8:43
  again last night for US six to five and extras.
• 8:45
  As a -130. Road favorite.
• 8:48
  So tonight's series finale, the A's are going to go with the
• 8:50
  ready Luis. Severino 2 and five, 4.45 ERA.
• 8:56
  He'll be opposed by the Angels. Ready.
• 8:57
  Jose Soriano. 6:00 and 3:00. 2.41 ERA so.
• 9:01
  Just sitting across the market. This game open with the.
• 9:04
  Angels round a minus. 120 home favorite the A's around.
• 9:07
  A + 100. Road Dog.
• 9:10
  We've seen nothing but. Either the line staying the same
• 9:13
  or dipping a little bit. Away from the Angels toward the
• 9:15
  A's. This tells me we got liability
• 9:17
  on the A's tonight. Guys, I'm going A's once again.
• 9:20
  We've seen the Angels open -120 and stay -120 or the Angels are.
• 9:25
  -120 down to like -1. 15 I believe they even got.
• 9:29
  Down as low as like -110 earlier today.
• 9:31
  So. This line has never gone.
• 9:33
  Up further toward the angels. Like the angels have never
• 9:35
  gotten to -122 -. 125 it's only. Stayed the same or dipped?
• 9:41
  In favor of the. A's, so that tells me.
• 9:42
  Liability on the A's. You can shop.
• 9:45
  Around and get the A's plus 100 even money at both Caesar's.
• 9:48
  And Bedham Jam right now. But some other books are.
• 9:51
  More like -1 O. 5 But I like the.
• 9:53
  Splits. In particular, at DraftKings,
• 9:55
  the A's are getting 54. Percent of money line bets 81%
• 10:00
  of money line dollars over at circa in the.
• 10:03
  Desert where pretty soon the A. 'S will call home in Vegas.
• 10:06
  I was talking to I. Was DM my guy King Nebuchad?
• 10:09
  Netsar talking about how? Cool, it'll be when the A's
• 10:11
  finally go to Vegas and you better put me in the shade under
• 10:14
  that half retractable roof. But anyway.
• 10:17
  The A's in at circa are getting 55.
• 10:20
  Percent of money line bats. But 60?
• 10:21
  6% of money line dollars. So the line has moved.
• 10:24
  Slightly toward the A's. Stayed the same.
• 10:26
  Remove toward the A's. Only shown liability on the A's.
• 10:29
  And low bets, higher dollar splits are both.
• 10:31
  On the A's. At DraftKings and at Circa.
• 10:34
  Now the A. 'S have the better bats and hope
• 10:36
  their bats get to. Soriano, who started off great.
• 10:39
  More on him in a second. He's tailed.
• 10:40
  Off a bit here. Recently.
• 10:41
  I'm hoping that continues. But the A's are hitting 251 as a
• 10:44
  team, 329 on base. Percentage four O 1 Slugging
• 10:48
  Percentage They've scored two. 120 two runs.
• 10:51
  Angels are hitting 220. 4312. OBP 376.
• 10:56
  Slug and scored 199 runs. In particular, we got 2 righties
• 11:00
  on the bump. Did you know the A's are hitting
• 11:02
  254 against righties? That's the 6th best.
• 11:05
  Batting average. Against Radies in baseball,
• 11:07
  Angels are hitting 217. Against radies, that is 30th and
• 11:11
  guess what? There's 30.
• 11:12
  Teams in MLB, so that means they are dead.
• 11:13
  Last against Radies, also the A's.
• 11:16
  Technically are still a dog. Very slight dog here.
• 11:18
  But they would be a divisional dog.
• 11:20
  And a dog high total total. This one is around 8 1/2,
• 11:24
  obviously both teams. AL West so built in familiarity,
• 11:27
  more expected run scored. Loves the playing field, leads
• 11:30
  to more upsets, benefits the team getting plus money or
• 11:34
  basically the dog in that spot. Now Severino.
• 11:37
  Has not been good at home 5.55 ERA.
• 11:40
  But on the road. A little bit better. 3.56
• 11:43
  Soriano. Again, guy started off
• 11:45
  incredible. I think he had like a sub. 1 ERA
• 11:48
  the. First month of the year, but in
• 11:50
  May he's made three starts and he has a six. .35 ERA.
• 11:53
  He's giving up 12 earned runs and 17 innings pitched.
• 11:56
  Angels. One and three in his last four
• 11:58
  starts and on the. Road he's on unhittable 1. .14
• 12:02
  ERA but at home 3.8. 6 So hopefully Severino.
• 12:06
  Pitches well on the road. Hopefully, Soriano continues
• 12:09
  kind of his down stretch here. As also have the better bullpen.
• 12:12
  We saw that last. Night with the the angels
• 12:15
  coughing it up. Much to our What's the opposite
• 12:18
  of? Much to your chagrin, much to
• 12:19
  our happiness. And we saw the the A's with
• 12:22
  Hogan. Nailed.
• 12:24
  Nail that thing down. But they have a. 4.51 ERA.
• 12:28
  In the bullpen, the A's do. Five point. 6 O for the angels,
• 12:31
  that's. Second worst in baseball
• 12:33
  athletics. Meanwhile, 15 and. 12 on the
• 12:35
  road winning. Record.
• 12:37
  Angels. 9 and 15 at home, losing record.
• 12:40
  So line is only. Stay the same or move toward the
• 12:44
  A's. They got a really good bet.
• 12:45
  Split their dog. High total divisional dog.
• 12:48
  Better bats, better against righties.
• 12:50
  Hopefully we. Can get a good start out of
• 12:52
  Severino. And get to Soriano.
• 12:54
  I'm taking a shot here on the. A's to post another victory.
• 12:58
  Shop around. Best number here is +1. 100 even
• 13:00
  money you risk a unit. You get a unit back.
• 13:02
  Hopefully. But again, some other books
• 13:04
  minus one O 5. But let's go A's next one for
• 13:08
  you. Another late game.
• 13:09
  Let's go to the desert. 9:40 PM Eastern.
• 13:11
  Time the Colorado. Rockies visiting the Arizona
• 13:14
  Diamondbacks now the Rockies come in 19 and 31 on the year,
• 13:19
  just dropped two or. Three against the Rangers.
• 13:21
  They lost that series finale. 5 to 4 as a.
• 13:23
  Plus 100 home dog. You know the D backs 25 and 23.
• 13:27
  Just swept the Giants. They won 6.
• 13:29
  To three yesterday. As a -, 110 home pick and play.
• 13:33
  Now for tonight's series opener, the Rockies are going to go with
• 13:36
  the ready Zach Agnos. He's O&O.
• 13:39
  With a 5.59 E. RAD Backs.
• 13:41
  Meanwhile, going with the lefty. Eduardo Rodriguez, 4:00 and
• 13:44
  1:00. 2.53 ERA. So.
• 13:47
  What do you sit across the market this game?
• 13:49
  Open Arizona. A pretty hefty. -185 Home.
• 13:52
  Favorite Colorado? Around a + 160.
• 13:54
  Five Rd. Dog.
• 13:56
  And again, what are you? Thinking here, guys, you know,
• 13:57
  Arizona is a better team. But it is a divisional.
• 13:59
  Game Colorado. You know they're getting.
• 14:02
  A big plus money payout. It's an expensive number for.
• 14:04
  Arizona. Do we see this line?
• 14:06
  Drop the sharps, jump on Colorado plus money.
• 14:08
  Nope. Sharps are laying it with.
• 14:10
  Arizona so. That's what I'm doing, guys.
• 14:11
  We've seen this line move. Further toward Arizona.
• 14:15
  With the Diamondbacks moving up. From -185 now up to around -200
• 14:20
  but some shops are now as high as -2 O 5 -. 210 and I even.
• 14:24
  Saw -235 at Bally. Bet so Bally.
• 14:27
  I don't know what they're doing, but.
• 14:28
  They are really. Really juicing up that.
• 14:30
  Number toward Arizona but. Tells me that even though this.
• 14:33
  Number is high, pros are. Playing the snakes here.
• 14:37
  DraftKings split looks. Pretty good on Arizona. 89%
• 14:40
  bets, 90% dollars over at Circa. 63.
• 14:44
  Percent of money line bets. 68. Percent of money line dollars.
• 14:48
  So both books. Both.
• 14:49
  DraftKings and Circa are showing.
• 14:51
  A pretty good low. Bets higher dollar split in
• 14:53
  favor of Arizona, which? Aligns with the line move.
• 14:56
  Toward Arizona. Now going to mention this
• 14:59
  because if you're feeling a little bit bold.
• 15:01
  I did see some run line action. On Arizona, so -1 1/2 at around
• 15:05
  -1 O 5. It'd be nice to.
• 15:07
  Cut that number down. Got a win by two though, of
• 15:09
  course. Diamondbacks are getting 87% of
• 15:12
  spread bets, 95% of spread dollars.
• 15:15
  At DraftKings, they're getting 75% of spread bets, 98%.
• 15:19
  Of spread dollars at Circa. I'm just going money line here.
• 15:23
  I was able to get the D backs. At a clean. -200 at the.
• 15:27
  Score. They're still available minus.
• 15:29
  200 at the score. But again, shop around a lot of
• 15:31
  books. -2 O 5 -. 210 and again, crazy that valley bet is up to
• 15:35
  -235. I don't love.
• 15:38
  Laying these big numbers. But I'll just mention it just.
• 15:40
  Like the Yankees last night. Whether it's -170 or -200 you
• 15:44
  know what we're doing. Betting to risk, not.
• 15:46
  Betting to win so. If you're going D backs.
• 15:48
  With me you're not. Risking 2 units to win one unit.
• 15:51
  Which would be. Betting to win, You're just
• 15:53
  risking your one. Unit trying to get a half unit.
• 15:55
  Back. Why?
• 15:56
  Because if the D backs lose. Again, you feel like that.
• 15:59
  That's a good spot for him against A.
• 16:00
  Bad team. But anything can happen.
• 16:03
  So we we want to make. Sure that if we.
• 16:04
  Lose We only lose 1 unit. That's why it is a. -200 bet to.
• 16:08
  Wrist not bet to win. Now did find a system match.
• 16:12
  Here on Arizona if. You look at sweet spot home
• 16:15
  favorites that are between. -200 and minus. 240.
• 16:19
  Which would qualify with Arizona?
• 16:21
  That are also. Getting at least $0.15 of steam
• 16:23
  in their favor, those teams. Are 99 and 3972 percent 5% ROI?
• 16:30
  Since the start of the 2024 season.
• 16:32
  So it goes to show you that even though it's a big.
• 16:34
  Number it has been profitable. With that steam.
• 16:36
  And that that. Sweet spot price now Eduardo
• 16:39
  Rodriguez. Has a 1.7. 4 ERA in three May.
• 16:43
  Starts he's. Pitched well, only giving up
• 16:45
  four earned runs. In 20.2 innings.
• 16:47
  Pitched. Arizona is 6 and one in his last
• 16:50
  seven starts and at home knock. On wood, he's been really good.
• 16:54
  Three and O one point. 65 ERA on.
• 16:56
  The other hand, Agnos. He's an opener slash starter.
• 17:01
  Sometimes he doesn't go very. Long.
• 17:02
  But he's got a 5. .4 O ERA and for May appearances.
• 17:06
  All of which are losses for Colorado.
• 17:08
  He's giving up seven runs and 11. .2 innings.
• 17:10
  Pitched Arizona, by the way. 15 and 9 at home.
• 17:14
  So snakes have done well in the. Desert Knock on wood.
• 17:16
  Colorado 9 and 16 on the road. So I know.
• 17:19
  It's a big number, but. Seen a lot of steam.
• 17:22
  Good system match, good splits, taking a shot on Arizona at a
• 17:26
  clean -2. 100 Again, I really don't like to go anything higher
• 17:29
  than this, but I figured, hey, we got a good spot here.
• 17:33
  Hopefully to back to D backs so I got D.
• 17:36
  Backs -200. A's.
• 17:38
  Plus 100. Let's get at least one of those
• 17:40
  if we get both that. 'D be even better.
• 17:43
  Now let me ask you, when was the last time we sweat some?
• 17:45
  NBA. It's been a hot minute here, but
• 17:48
  I was. Looking at the board tonight.
• 17:50
  And I want you guys to know that even though, you know, we
• 17:52
  haven't. Been a ton of.
• 17:53
  NBA or NHL or WNBA, I'm still looking at the lines every day.
• 17:57
  I'm just saying to myself, OK, do I have an edge?
• 17:59
  I always ask myself that. What's the edge?
• 18:02
  Is my edge just that I want to watch the game and I want to.
• 18:05
  Participate. No, that's not an edge.
• 18:06
  You want to feel. Like you have an edge.
• 18:08
  Because the data. Is telling you that?
• 18:10
  So I did land on the Cavs in the Knicks for tonight, guys I got.
• 18:13
  To play for you, I'll. See if we can get a winner in
• 18:15
  the NBA now. Setting the stage here.
• 18:17
  This is game two of the Eastern. Conference finals, the I was.
• 18:21
  Going to see the Yankees. The the Knicks.
• 18:23
  Are up 1 nothing. Because they had that insane.
• 18:26
  Come from behind win. 115 to one O. 4.
• 18:29
  In the in game one, remember they're down.
• 18:32
  What was it, 20 points with 7 minutes?
• 18:33
  Left but I'm looking. At the game here for tonight and
• 18:36
  I must admit. You know a.
• 18:38
  Little bit of line movement. Toward the Cavs, and you can
• 18:40
  look at it one of two ways, like either the Knicks are a team of
• 18:43
  destiny. And just, you know, incredibly,
• 18:44
  they, they actually covered that game, believe it or not.
• 18:47
  Or they like, I think they're -6 or something a similar.
• 18:50
  Number. Or are the Cavs?
• 18:52
  So mad and upset. That they blew it.
• 18:54
  That. You're really going to get a
• 18:55
  good effort out of them tonight. Now.
• 18:57
  My play is on the. Total, but I will mention that
• 18:59
  this line is. Dropping a bit toward the Cavs.
• 19:02
  Because we open this game with the Knicks.
• 19:04
  Listed around A6. And a half point home favorite
• 19:07
  and. Now this line is down.
• 19:08
  To 5 1/2. Or even. 5 So that's telling me.
• 19:12
  That the line is moving. Toward the Cavs And why is that
• 19:15
  notable? Because public doesn't.
• 19:16
  Really want to play the Cavs. Knicks are getting 65.
• 19:19
  Percent of spread bets at at DraftKings.
• 19:23
  But if you look over at circa. Cavs are only getting 24% of
• 19:26
  spread bets, but 80% of spread dollars.
• 19:28
  So this line is. Dropping toward the Cavs now, I
• 19:33
  mentioned that because. That's typically a good sign for
• 19:36
  an over. That's my play, guys, I'm.
• 19:38
  Going over tonight because #1A short spread.
• 19:42
  Typically like 5 or less. You know, again some.
• 19:44
  Books are at 5 mostly. 5 1/2's. But the line is dropping toward
• 19:48
  the dog, which is usually a good.
• 19:49
  Sign. With a short number toward a
• 19:52
  higher scoring game, a more competitive game.
• 19:55
  So that's the first kind of angle here A.
• 19:56
  Little bit of correlative betting.
• 19:58
  Short number that's getting shorter.
• 19:59
  Toward the dog. Like again, sometimes you see,
• 20:02
  you know, teams that that's -7 up to -8 minus. 9 Maybe they
• 20:06
  win. 110 to 90 and it's a blowout and the number goes
• 20:09
  under. But anyway.
• 20:11
  Lines moving toward the Cavs. But the big thing here?
• 20:15
  Is that this total? Has risen.
• 20:17
  It open at 2:14 and 1/2. It's up to two. 15 1/2.
• 20:21
  So right off the bat. We got the line moving.
• 20:23
  Toward the dog. And the total?
• 20:24
  Moving up now. It's 2:14 and half up to 215 1/2
• 20:28
  but it. Actually got as high as. 216
• 20:31
  1/2. At quite a few shops earlier
• 20:33
  today. That's when you did.
• 20:34
  See a little bit of buyback hit under. 216 1/2.
• 20:37
  Bring it back. Down to 215 1/2, but we got some
• 20:40
  good. Splits at DraftKings 74% pets
• 20:43
  83% dollars on the over. We got the short spread move
• 20:47
  toward the dog, but what? Really sold me on this.
• 20:50
  Over this OVA, rooting for. Points is that not only.
• 20:54
  Do we have the splits? In the line move.
• 20:56
  Going over. But I popped open rhythm.
• 20:59
  And again, rhythm. When you beat me over the head
• 21:02
  with a recommendation. I feel like how?
• 21:04
  Do I not play it? And what's beating me over the
• 21:06
  head is the fact that all. Three of my rhythm
• 21:09
  recommendations are recommending the over here.
• 21:12
  So the first model, the Rhythm House model.
• 21:15
  Has a total of projected total of 2. 16.2.
• 21:20
  The second model. Is a predicted 2. 17 point.
• 21:23
  Six and the third model. Is a predicted 2. 23.1.
• 21:29
  So first thing is they're. All in the over.
• 21:31
  We got no in recommendations. Going under, so they're all in
• 21:34
  unison over. The 217.6 is.
• 21:38
  Actually a. Green Star Smart signal
• 21:41
  recommended play. So that is the.
• 21:42
  Strongest of all the bets. Of all the predictions here.
• 21:45
  And then the third model which is my Josh model 223.1 I.
• 21:49
  Called the Sharp. Hoops, I think it looks.
• 21:51
  At 3 point shooting and free throw shooting.
• 21:54
  But the totals gone up. We got bets splits to the over.
• 21:58
  Short line. Getting shorter toward the dog.
• 22:00
  And all three rhythm. Models are predicting the over.
• 22:03
  So I'm. Taking a shot on this over.
• 22:04
  Guys, now our last leg here is. To find the best number.
• 22:08
  So. FanDuel 215 and a.
• 22:10
  Half over -1 O. 6 The score. 215 1/2.
• 22:15
  Over -1 O 5. Fanatics 215.
• 22:17
  And a half over minus. 110 DraftKings, 215.
• 22:20
  And 1/2 / -1 O 8. Valley Bet 215.
• 22:24
  And 1/2 / -, 112 but I noticed that Bet MGM is offering.
• 22:29
  Over 214 1/2. At minus. 1:15 Not only that.
• 22:35
  But there is a. Odds boost or a coin boost?
• 22:38
  Available at Bet MGM A5. Percent coin boost which
• 22:42
  basically takes the the juice and makes it less expensive or
• 22:45
  brings the juice price down. So I applied that. 5% boost and
• 22:49
  I got bet MGM Cavs Nicks. Over 214 1/2.
• 22:54
  At -110. So again, that's a full.
• 22:58
  Point Edge. Over the rest of the.
• 22:59
  Market and we got. All three rhythm models telling
• 23:02
  us to. Play the over and you can take
• 23:04
  the juice from over 2. 14 and F -, 1. 15 to over 214 and F. -110
• 23:10
  with that boost, so I'm. Taking a shot on this over guys,
• 23:12
  let's get some points and I actually heard a.
• 23:15
  Rumor that Chalamet and and. And Kylie broke up.
• 23:18
  I don't know if that's true or not, but we'll see if they're
• 23:20
  sitting. You know how you know if they're
• 23:22
  sitting on the sideline together tonight next to Ben Stiller?
• 23:25
  But I'm taking a shot on this. Over if you'd like to join me
• 23:27
  Rooting for points Knicks Cavs Game 2 tonight 8.
• 23:32
  PM Eastern Time over 214 1/2 minus. 110 with a bet MGM boost.
• 23:37
  So that about does it for episode 5. 17 of the all systems
• 23:41
  go sports. Betting podcast powered by
• 23:43
  Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 23:45
  where we wrap. Things up and I always.
• 23:46
  Start first by saying thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 23:50
  you for tuning in, thank you for.
• 23:51
  Grinding in the arena. With me every single day through
• 23:54
  the. The wins and the losses.
• 23:55
  The good and the bad, the UPS. And the Downs, that's life.
• 23:58
  That's. Sports betting, we show up.
• 24:00
  Every day with a positive, realistic app attitude, looking
• 24:04
  for data-driven bets that are. Made with our head and not our
• 24:07
  heart, and for that I'm very proud.
• 24:09
  If you'd like to support the pod, you can do a couple things.
• 24:12
  Cost you nothing. It's free.
• 24:14
  Just give this podcast a five star review on.
• 24:16
  Spotify or iTunes? That will go a long way to
• 24:19
  helping. Us grow the pod you can click
• 24:21
  the follow. Button recommend the pod to a
• 24:23
  friend. You can also.
• 24:24
  Retweet the pod. When I put it out on Twitter at
• 24:27
  Josh under Score Insights again. Any or all those things?
• 24:30
  I'd very much appreciate. Next if you enjoy.
• 24:32
  The style of sports. Betting data-driven, sharp
• 24:35
  contrarian betting focusing on line moves.
• 24:37
  Bet split system matches taking a contrarian approach leaning.
• 24:41
  On AI models. If that's all betting has.
• 24:43
  Appealed to you. You see the value in it.
• 24:45
  You want to learn more? About data-driven betting.
• 24:48
  Or you have so many life who could use some?
• 24:49
  Data-driven tips. You know you should do.
• 24:51
  You should go to. Amazon.com and Type.
• 24:53
  In the everything guide to sports betting or type.
• 24:56
  In the NFL. Sharp betting playbook.
• 24:59
  Those are the two books that I've written.
• 25:00
  Very proud of both. But once you buy them.
• 25:03
  You'll then bring them to the sports book.
• 25:05
  And I'll sign them for. You and I'll buy you a beer and
• 25:07
  we'll sweat some NBA and we'll sweat some MLB together tonight.
• 25:11
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice?
• 25:13
  Real yet? My 2.
• 25:13
  Favorite sports betting apps? They help me win.
• 25:16
  They're. Going to help you win.
• 25:17
  Because they're all about the. AI models and the data which is
• 25:20
  which is something that I, I. Truly believe in.
• 25:23
  It's not a blind faith. It's a, it's a.
• 25:25
  It's a real. Confidence because the numbers
• 25:27
  back it up. But download Rhythm.
• 25:29
  For their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 25:31
  player props just mentioned. Those models here on the total
• 25:34
  for the Cavs tonight, but they also have MLB and they also have
• 25:37
  WNBA. And then of course.
• 25:39
  Juice Reel Juice Reel has so many great features you can sync
• 25:41
  up. Your sports books got a running
• 25:43
  report card of your action get. That CLV sweat meter.
• 25:46
  Before the game tips off. Or first pitch, whatever you
• 25:49
  want to call it, get the Robo Jackson best bet.
• 25:51
  Picks the sharp mush. Indicators The arbitrage plays
• 25:54
  the shop for the best line futures.
• 25:55
  As I mentioned earlier, you can support the POD.
• 25:58
  By getting the all. Systems go best bet picks much
• 26:00
  earlier than the. Pod.
• 26:01
  As soon as I bet them, they go. Right.
• 26:03
  To the. ASG best bets page.
• 26:06
  You can. Get them with A7.
• 26:08
  Day free trial and if you want to keep it and support the team.
• 26:10
  It's $9.99. Cents a week it's. $24.99 a
• 26:15
  month or it's $199.99 for the entire.
• 26:18
  Year, so I would be very much. Honored.
• 26:22
  And humbled if you wanted to support the pod.
• 26:23
  And again, it's a tip jar pods. Free you like the insights?
• 26:26
  You want to support the pod? Get a week.
• 26:28
  Get a month, be a hero. Get a year.
• 26:30
  Have a download rhythm download? Juice real.
• 26:32
  Give them both. A five star review.
• 26:34
  In the App Store next. Do you have a live odds page
• 26:37
  rule If you don't. Have one, you need one.
• 26:39
  It's such a critical tool to be able.
• 26:41
  To track the betting market, first thing I noticed on odds.
• 26:43
  Logic was that, hey, the total with the Cavs?
• 26:45
  And the Knicks? It went up opening.
• 26:47
  Column. Is on the left side of the page.
• 26:49
  It never changes, it's just going to show.
• 26:50
  You that static. Opening number and you can
• 26:53
  quickly compare the opening. Number to all the current odds
• 26:56
  in real time on the right. So I noticed Hey 2. 14 1/2
• 26:59
  opener. Now every book is basically.
• 27:01
  Two, 15215 1/2. Then you pull up the line
• 27:03
  history. Notice the buyback at 2:00. 16
• 27:06
  1/2. And came back.
• 27:07
  Down and then of. Course shopping for the best.
• 27:09
  Number finding that cabs next. Over at 214 1/2.
• 27:14
  Which is available at. Bet MGM.
• 27:16
  You can track the market. And you can.
• 27:18
  Place a live bet by getting those live in.
• 27:20
  Game majoring odds you can do it all.
• 27:21
  With odds logic. So if you want to.
• 27:24
  Give it a shot. To me it's the best.
• 27:26
  Live odds page you're on, but you can test it out for
• 27:28
  yourself. Use this special link.
• 27:30
  Oddslogic.com slash. Josh 123 that's going to give
• 27:35
  you a. 7 day free trial. And 50% off your first?
• 27:38
  Month of service. So that about does it for
• 27:40
  episode 5. 17 of the all systems.
• 27:43
  Go sports betting. Podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 27:46
  Lastly, 2 final thoughts one. Whether I see you at the.
• 27:49
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island the.
• 27:52
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 27:54
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston Plain Ridge park casino
• 27:58
  MGM. Springfield or the Nash and my
• 28:00
  neck of the woods. On the border of Massachusetts.
• 28:02
  In New Hampshire. You're out in the desert where
• 28:04
  the true grinders get down. Where Billy?
• 28:06
  Walter sends his number runners. With lowest true as possible is
• 28:09
  found. At the South Point, or.
• 28:10
  Sweat and sharp contrarian plays.
• 28:12
  Jumping in the stadium, swimming.
• 28:13
  Pool when he. Catch a big ticket at Circa.
• 28:15
  Whatever it may be, you're. Going to walk up to me.
• 28:17
  Show me a Dodgers ticket. But even better, show me an A's
• 28:20
  ticket. I tell you what.
• 28:22
  When Jeff. McNeil hit that Homer right.
• 28:24
  Man, that was a. Jolt of of lightning through my
• 28:28
  through my, through my bones. Show me a Dodgers ticket.
• 28:31
  Show me an A's. Ticket first one.
• 28:33
  'S on me, next one's on you. You'll post about the book.
• 28:35
  And sweat some. MLB and NBA here.
• 28:37
  In the playoffs for tonight. So as always, guys coming off A2
• 28:40
  and. One or one and two A3 and over.
• 28:42
  And O and three. A winning night, a losing night,
• 28:44
  a hot. Streak a cold streak Whether
• 28:46
  things are going our way or getting bad, beaded we.
• 28:48
  Just got to stay the. Course, never get too high.
• 28:50
  When things are good. Never get too low and things are
• 28:52
  bad. Discipline with our bankroll
• 28:54
  management. Again, betting to risk, not
• 28:56
  betting to win. And looking for those system
• 28:58
  matches. Games that are against the.
• 28:59
  Public with the house with the pros Flat bet avoid.
• 29:03
  Parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 29:06
  to be. Successful sports bettors so if.
• 29:08
  Everyone has a great Thursday. Night enjoy the MLB.
• 29:11
  Enjoy the playoffs, let's get some points.
• 29:13
  Cavs, Knicks and I'll be right back at it tomorrow.
• 29:15
  For a big Friday edition. Of the ASG pod, that'll be
• 29:18
  episode 5. 18. I look forward to breaking down
• 29:21
  some games with the guys before we steam into the weekend.
• 29:24
  Well, good luck everyone. Have a great Thursday night.
• 29:26
  And again, I'll see you. Tomorrow for another edition of
• 29:29
  the All Systems Go. Sports betting podcast powered
• 29:32
  by Rhythm. Good luck.