Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Trump Trade Explodes + Stock Market News 11 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Trump Trade Explodes + Stock Market News 11 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this very, very much pre-market live stream.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: It is today, of course, veterans day happy veterans day to you all but there's been so much freaking movement over the weekend I thought it's probably worth doing a live stream today.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Walk you through everything that's just changed Big, beautiful changes, lots of upgrades for everybody's price targets and everything else and explain that in sort of a calm, collected, calm manner, without the market breathing down our neck, and that way you'd be better positioned and better informed to make great decisions tomorrow.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Plus, crypto markets are open and what's happening over there is absolutely bananas.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: So I appreciate you, um, being live here today.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Um, good morning to everybody.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Smash the like button if you were a care to let me share my screen with you.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: There we are futures.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Futures are green.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Look at that.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Russell small caps 1.1 percent up.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Um nasdaq up 0.3, s&p up 0.3.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Volatility is down.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Oil is down.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: It looks pretty sweet.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Dollar still climbing up a little bit here.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: That's the Trump effect, and this really kind of knocked my socks off today.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Yardini, pretty well-respected analyst chap out there, he's been around forever.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: He says the following he says we're raising our S&P year-end targets 6,100 for this year, 7,000 for next year, 8,000 for 2026, and 10,000 by the end of the decade, which is a 66% increase from our current projection over the next five years.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: He's basically saying the animal spirits are alive.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Trump 2.0, economic policies, russia and Ukraine, wars and Middle East wars coming to an end sooner rather than later will all help fuel this insane rally, and this is kind of part of that here, and I think this comes from Goldman's.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Let me explain what this means.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: The red line is the current sort of consensus on earnings per share going into the final quarter of the year.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: So it's been a really sweet rally.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Now, that sort of Turquoise kind of thing are the expectations now for that's 2025, and that is 2026.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: So if earnings per share go up, well, stock prices go up.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: It's sort of simple, isn't it?
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: It's kind of profit per share goes up.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Therefore the stocks become more valuable because the return gets higher, the yield gets higher and therefore they go up.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: So that's literally what it's all about.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: It's not really about multiples going up, it's just saying companies will be more profitable.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Now, what this then, of course, does is it triggers lots of insane breakouts, and we've had, we're starting to see, some of those in the end of last week and I hope you're enjoying them as much as I am, and so I thought I'd run a free, live beginner bootcamp tomorrow where I will walk you through how we spot those breakouts before they happen, because it is actually predictable.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: There are a couple of rules to that.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I'll teach those to you and how you could therefore potentially beat the market, like I am.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Felix Renzel Oxygen Bootcamp.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: It's tomorrow, tuesday, 8 pm, new York.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: It's going to be live, probably do about 90 minutes, something like that, depending on how many questions you want to ask me.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: So come and join me and I'll really walk you through it.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: We look at some real life charts together and everything else as well.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: This here is Morgan Stanley, I believe.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: They're saying we expect that profit margins will rise to 13.9 and 40.9% of the next two years thanks to Trump tax cuts, deregulations and faster productivity growth because of less regulation and AI and robotics and so on.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: So again, they're basically saying companies will be more profitable.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Therefore, stock prices should go up.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks for the kind comments there in the chat.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: By the way, I do appreciate those.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: You guys have been sending me a lot of nice comments lately, which is appreciated, and this illustrates the point very, very nicely that blue box.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: There was the expected, basically profit growth, eps growth for the quarter and what was the expectation?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: It was three percent.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: What did we get?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: We got eight percent.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So we got a an extra five percent profit growth.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: And going forward, we're expecting nine, twelve, twelve, sixteen, seventeen, so on for next year.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: That's expected.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: We tend to beat expectations, as the market actually pretty much every single quarter.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Why, well, it's just the way the market works.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Companies tend to sandbag so they can over-deliver and give us a nice little sort of kinder surprise at the end.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, tesla, lfg, I'm totally with you on that here.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: And morgan stanley, um, says this they're saying focus on these sectors.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: They're saying we're going to get stronger consumer spending because taxes will come down and it means there'll be a little bit more inflation.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Who's going to benefit from the inflation?
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Companies with strong pricing power.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Do you remember when Pepsi was it this year?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Beginning of this year, they increased their prices by 17%?
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: No, their input costs hadn't risen 17%, but everybody was talking about inflation.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: They thought to the hell with it.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: We can use that as an excuse and outweigh we make better margins and they made better margins.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: So companies with lots of pricing power can actually use inflation to make more money.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: You'll still buy it because you like it that much and you'll pay more for it because you think, well, everything is getting more expensive and they're just passing on the costs.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: And no, they're not, they're just getting more profitable.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: And then they're also saying be bullish again on discretionary.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: And discretionary is stuff you don't need, right?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So you don't need to buy another phone or you know another phone because you have some already.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Those are things that last right the last few years, a car would be a non-discretionary item.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: That kind of thing.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Discretionary is stuff that you choose to buy because you feel like it.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: And I've been fairly bearish on discretionaries all year because I was worried about the poor little US consumer, because they're getting pummeled by slow wage growth and high inflation and an uncertain economy.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Well, no longer.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: If you get those tax cuts and they really do what they say they're going to do, because Republicans will basically have full control, the only problem in the room will be the lobbyists.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Quite frankly, it makes sense actually to look at discretionary stocks again.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: So we might want to revisit a lot of the Nikes and those kinds of type stocks and go like.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just an example.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying Nike's got all sorts of issues with inventory and sort of poor brand, but stuff like that's really suffered.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: There could be some real gems in that, so we definitely need to have a look at that.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Anders, my friend, that makes me very, very, very happy what you said there, and I'm going to take a little screenshot of that, because that's literally why I do this.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Look what Anders here says.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: This is not a plant.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: He says he's been a member of the Goat Academy for seven months, so I've made 183% profit.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I've had some bad months, learned a lot religiously followed.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Felix, really, you're the one doing it, my friend.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: You are the one putting in the work, you're the one learning, you're the one paper trading and everything else, but that's exactly why we do this.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: That's the whole point of the whole thing here.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: I want to teach people how to actually make money, because it gives you so much freaking freedom, doesn't it?
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: How good do you feel, anders, seriously, how good do you feel now that you know that you can do this right and you don't need us for it anymore?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Now here is another one that I think is definitely an interesting one and I bought some of this on Friday Is it Friday or Thursday, I can't remember IWM.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So small caps Small caps have had a really hard time.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: This is iwm divided by qqq, so it's basically small caps over tech stocks.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: And what do you see?
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Well, they were up here at one point the relationship.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Now they're down here.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: So basically, small caps are about 60 70 percent cheaper now, say, 60% cheaper compared to tech stocks than they were in.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: What was that?
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: 2014?
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And even recently, in recent years, it's been going down and down and down, and that's a lot to do with just big tech stocks being amazing, but it's also got a lot to do with high interest rates and a really shitty US economy and a really tough environment and lots of regulation on that.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: You take that away, you cut taxes and so on and suddenly you do all the onshoring and the tariffs and suddenly small caps go to the moon, right, which is really what it's all about.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Drew, my friend you're asking about do we buy before or after a jump's 50-day moving average After?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Why don't you join us tomorrow for the live beginner bootcamp and I'll walk you through the whole thing again?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: We'll look at some real-life examples and we'll do a proper Q&A so you can really get it clear in your mind there.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: So, mike Mills, I've been the Broganville six months.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: It hasn't worked for me.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Mike, my friend, let's make sure we get you the support when you need.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: I believe we've had some messages back and forth.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: What we generally do if there is somebody who's struggling and that does happen completely makes sense, right?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: You bring in a thousand people.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Some people are going to struggle.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Um, we just want to offer you more support.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: That's really it.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: So we just offer you more support.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: We hope you take it, and then we offer you some more support and some more support, and that basically means you hop on one-on-one calls with our team of investment bankers, market makers.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: We've done this for decades and we'll chew through your issues, find what they are and solve them.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: That's really, really, really what we do there.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: So let's move on to oh yes, this is fun, isn't it?
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Hedge funds shorting.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Tesla just lost more than $5 billion, and that's, of course, the beautiful shiny rally here that we've got.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Where did my window go?
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Tesla is absolutely flying.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Actually, let me open this in here.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I want to show you the resistance where it sits as well, absolutely glorious rally.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: If the Robinhood overnight trading is to be believed, we're going to be opening up way higher.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Look at that.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Here we are post-market, pre-market, post-market still right.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: 343, which is crazy.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: The resistance was at 300.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So where is the resistance going to open on Monday?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Will it be 350?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Will it be 400?
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: We really are at unprecedented levels here.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: For Tesla, the ultimate high at one point was slightly over $400, right.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So there are still some bag holders, but very, very, very few, and that's a good thing, because it means very few people left to sell, right?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: That's really usually how that works.