Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 165 - 11/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 165 - 11/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 165 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Monday, a new week begins. The weekend is over, but boy did
• 0:39
  we get after it this past weekend.
• 0:41
  I'll give you the updated numbers here, but I'm pretty
• 0:43
  sure you had a good weekend because I had a good weekend.
• 0:46
  But overall, guys going to turn the page, kick off a new week
• 0:49
  here as we get into the tail end of November.
• 0:51
  Before you know it, you'll be hopefully gathering around some
• 0:53
  family sweating some Thanksgiving Day games here in
• 0:56
  the NFL. But we got some money making
• 0:58
  opportunities between then and now.
• 1:00
  For tonight, I have a 5 pack of sweats for you guys, including
• 1:04
  three bets on Monday Night Football.
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  We got the Cowboys, we got the Texans.
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  We have a huge contrarian opportunity.
• 1:09
  We have really sharp line move. I got to play on the side, I got
• 1:12
  to play on the total. And I have a player prop that
• 1:15
  I'm excited to share with you as well.
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  Looking toward this pass catcher, hopefully go over his
• 1:19
  receiving yards. So 3 pack in Monday Night
• 1:22
  Football and then 2 plays in college basketball, a very
• 1:25
  heavily back game. I'm be looking toward playing
• 1:27
  the total and then a very low bet, obscure sharp line move.
• 1:30
  I'll be looking at a late night sweat here playing a side.
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  So A5 pack overall, three NFL 2 college basketball.
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  Of course, you know what the goal is here, guys.
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  Let's try to get three of these and eke out a winning night.
• 1:42
  Now looking back toward the weekend, what a weekend it was.
• 1:45
  Let's go all the way back to Friday, guys. 4 and 2 + 1.43
• 1:49
  units. On the Friday pod.
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  We had a big win in the NBA with the Detroit Pistons getting it
• 1:54
  done against the Raptors. Then we went two and O in
• 1:57
  college football with UTSA Dog to fave line movement that
• 2:01
  Wyoming windy under got Iowa under.
• 2:05
  In college basketball, the losers were though Cal, Baptist
• 2:08
  and Winthrop. Those unders unfortunately went
• 2:10
  over. Let's flash forward or Fast
• 2:13
  forward to Saturday. 4 and 1 + 2.73 units.
• 2:17
  A massive day in college football.
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  That was one of my favorite college football days of the
• 2:21
  year. Arkansas covering the number
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  against Texas Air Force absolutely rolling at home
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  against Oregon State. Georgia.
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  We needed one last score to cover that fade the trendy dog
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  number and we got it. The Bulldogs covered and then
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  Kansas. I love that game.
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  Late night against BYU. They take down BYU.
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  No more undefeated season. Kansas was sharp as a tack and
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  they're able to win that game out, right?
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  So a great day in college football.
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  Only loser was Damon Jackson, UFC, so I'm not going to say
• 2:50
  biting, I'm just going to say biting.
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  That was disappointing because he got choked out in the first
• 2:55
  round and we got -180 he closed -220 so CLV couldn't come
• 2:59
  through though. But Saturday, 4 and 1 + 2.73
• 3:02
  units, and then another good day.
• 3:04
  Yesterday, another 4 and 1 + 2.21 units.
• 3:08
  We had the Chargers late night. Freaking gave me a heart attack
• 3:11
  because they're up by 21 points. Blew it multiple missed kicks
• 3:14
  though, luckily from the Bengals.
• 3:15
  If you're a Bengals background, I think that was just a crushing
• 3:18
  loss. But Chargers found a way to hang
• 3:20
  on when it looked like they were going to blow it.
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  Remember that was a fade the trendy dog where it like 80% of
• 3:25
  bets were on the Bengals, but the lines stayed the same or
• 3:27
  moved toward LA Buffalo Bills. I I love Patrick Mahomes as a
• 3:32
  dog too guys. But we got a great cover there
• 3:34
  with the Buffalo Bills. What an epic Josh Allen run
• 3:37
  there late to seal the deal, but public was on Mahomes line went
• 3:40
  to the bills. We trusted the market.
• 3:42
  The market gave us a winner there.
• 3:44
  Denver Broncos, no sweat crushing Atlanta.
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  I love fading that Southern Dome team going outdoors in Mile High
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  and then Pittsburgh getting 3 1/2 with a hook.
• 3:53
  End up winning that game outright.
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  Only loser was the Patriots and I would argue they should have
• 3:57
  covered that number. And I was annoyed because I got
• 3:59
  a good 5 1/2. End up losing by 6.
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  They missed an extra point. But either way guys, I'm looking
• 4:04
  back since Friday. 12 and four are last 16 plays, plus 6.37
• 4:09
  units. Don't let the boys and girls get
• 4:12
  hot. Maureen Chase, I'm looking at
• 4:13
  you. But either way, guys turn the
• 4:15
  page, whether you're 12:00 and 4:00 or 4:00 and 12:00, the
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  model never changes. We're looking for system
• 4:20
  matches, reading the market. We can simultaneously get down
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  on games that are sharp, contrarian, have good system
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  matches, good bet splits, and hopefully we get a couple breaks
• 4:28
  there because as always, sports betting is difficult.
• 4:32
  So without further ado, let's see if we can keep this hot
• 4:34
  streak going. Let's talk about some Monday
• 4:36
  Night Football. We have the Houston Texans going
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  in state, so not much of A travel play for Houston.
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  They're taking on the Dallas Cowboys.
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  Let's set the stage. I'll give you my disgusting
• 4:47
  hazmat side. I'll give you my total and I'll
• 4:49
  give you a player prop. I also want to mention one thing
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  real quick. Thank you for everyone tuning
• 4:54
  into the live stream yesterday with rhythm, myself and James
• 4:57
  Santor. Another great live stream
• 4:59
  yesterday. I remember that's always Sundays
• 5:01
  at 11:00 AM to noon Eastern Time.
• 5:04
  And then I also want to mention I've seen you guys sign up for
• 5:07
  the best bets that are now available on the juice reel app.
• 5:10
  So you can now, if you missed it, get every single all systems
• 5:13
  go best bet on the juice reel social tab.
• 5:16
  I've been tweeting out the link. I'll I'll make sure I'm actually
• 5:20
  going to put that link in the bio description of the pod
• 5:23
  moving forward. So it's 499 a week, 5 bucks a
• 5:27
  week. Consider it a cup of coffee.
• 5:29
  You can consider it maybe buying the pics, which I get a little
• 5:32
  queasy about because I don't want to consider Touty, but I
• 5:36
  will consider this maybe a tip jar like if you enjoy the pod,
• 5:40
  the pods free, you know, 499 a week, you can get all these all
• 5:43
  system go plays. Consider that maybe a thank you
• 5:47
  from your end to me. If you want to support the pod,
• 5:51
  maybe 499 a week doesn't sound too bad.
• 5:53
  So of course you can click the links in the description.
• 5:56
  I'm going to tweet them out each day moving forward.
• 5:58
  But if you want to support the pod or get the plays or maybe
• 6:01
  there are days where you know you're busy, you can't listen to
• 6:04
  the whole pod and get the breakdowns, you just say, Josh,
• 6:06
  give me the bets. Boom, they'll be in the all
• 6:08
  systems go social tab on Juice Real from now on.
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  So why don't you just mention that?
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  Let's get to our sweats for tonight, guys.
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  Texans, Cowboys, now Texans come in six and four.
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  They've dropped three of their last four, making me sweat my
• 6:21
  over 9 1/2 win total. Hopefully we'll still get there,
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  but they just lost to the Lions 2623.
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  But they did cover. They closed 4 1/2 dog in that
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  one. Meanwhile, the boys three and
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  six, they've lost four straight. Nothing's going right for them.
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  Dak Prescott's out for the year. They just got rolled by the
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  Eagles 34 to 6. Did not cover as a 7 point home
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  dog. So I'm just sitting across the
• 6:42
  market here. Well, this one's interesting
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  because the look ahead line, which comes out about a week or
• 6:47
  two weeks before, basically, it's a good way to kind of look
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  at overreactions. The look headline was Houston -5
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  1/2 on the road. Now Dallas gets rolled by the
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  Eagles. Obviously, Houston put up a good
• 7:00
  fight against Detroit, who looks like a world beater right now.
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  We saw that line quickly get adjusted up to Texans -7 now the
• 7:07
  public at 7, they say blowout Houston.
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  Dallas stinks. They got blown out last week.
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  They'll get blown out again late with Houston.
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  Right now, 83% of spread bets are laying it with the Texans.
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  Now, what's interesting to me is that the Texans at -7 have
• 7:23
  gotten bet up to -7 1/2 and we're kind of hanging around 7
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  1/2 seven, where there are some 7 and a halfs out there, but
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  there are a lot of books coming back down to seven.
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  They're still juicing up the -7 -, 115 toward Houston.
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  But here's a really good quote from my buddy Thomas Gable at
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  the Borgata in Atlantic City. If you've never been, you got to
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  get there. To me, it's the best sports book
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  on the East Coast. But this was a quote that caught
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  my eye. He said, quote, we took some
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  bigger plays on Cowboys plus 7 1/2 earlier in the week.
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  And then he mentioned the public is all over Houston in this one.
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  So if you don't know my guy TG, he's the best, most kind, the
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  greatest, sharpest, just a overall good guy.
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  He doesn't throw this stuff at you.
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  Like just Willy nilly. He's telling you they took in
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  some smart money on the Cowboys. So the first thing that jumps
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  out to me is that everyone's playing Houston, but TG took
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  some sharp money, +7 and half Cowboys.
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  And why isn't it painted 7 and half everywhere?
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  Like if everyone's playing Houston, 83% of bets, shouldn't
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  we be at -7 half at every book, maybe going to 8?
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  No, you're starting to see those seven and halfs fall back down
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  to seven. So I'm thinking Cowboys.
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  Now let's build the case for the Cowboys.
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  I know it sounds gross. I know they've looked really,
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  really bad, but this is one of those data plays that you got to
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  trust the data. Cowboys, great contrarian value.
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  They're only getting 17% of bets.
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  So just a straight up contrarian play here, betting against the
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  public. Now let's layer in some system
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  matches. Big dogs, the big German
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  shepherds, the Bernese mountain dogs, by getting 6 1/2 points or
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  more. They've been really good this
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  year. 27 and 15 against the spread, 64 percent, 22% ROI.
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  Dogs off, a blot loss of 20 or more.
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  You remember this system, you get blown out, public thinks
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  you're terrible. Well, those are teams you want
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  to buy low on the following week because they're undervalued.
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  Dogs off, a blot loss of 20 or more.
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  Cowboys would match. Here they are. 112 and 90
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  against the spread, 55 percent, 7% ROI since 2017.
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  Primetime dogs getting 7 points or more, they're two.
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  And against the spread this year, they're 59% since 2018.
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  Dallas has some correlative betting value.
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  We're going to get to the total here in a second, but it's a
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  very low total and it's low for a reason. 41, maybe 41 1/2
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  depending on what book you're looking at.
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  But if you're getting a touchdown or touchdown in a hook
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  dog in a very low total game, that's a good sign for Dallas
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  because it means fewer amount of expected points scored.
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  It's going to be harder for Houston to cover that number.
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  And I want to mention this because I always write sports
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  betting articles. The sharp reports for vsyn.com
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  and V Syn always gets the DraftKings percentages, but V
• 9:59
  Syn just added Circa bet splits. So this could be a potential
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  huge game changer for us guys because Circa is one of the
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  sharpest books on the planet and they pride themselves on
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  catering to wiseguy money. So now that we get the
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  percentages from Circa, we can kind of compare and contrast
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  like DraftKings, a public book, Circa a very sharp book.
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  And the one thing I noticed that that Circa is that the Cowboys
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  are getting only 29% of spread bats.
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  So they're very contrarian, just like DraftKings, but they're
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  getting, get this, it's crazy. 87% of dollars are on the
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  Cowboys at Circa. So tells me the bigger sharper
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  wagers. That's a good sign for Dallas
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  telling us again that the bigger sharper wagers are taking the
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  points here with Dallas. So I'm going to go Cowboys guys.
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  Now, the important thing to know here is you got to get the hook
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  right now you have FanDuel giving you plus 7 1/2 at -120.
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  You could wait it out for the hook.
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  You could buy it up. Like if you see a book that's
• 10:56
  very low toward Dallas, like +7 at plus 100 or -105, you could
• 11:02
  buy it up to 120. But I did jump on the Cowboys.
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  I was at ESPN bet plus 7 1/2 at -120.
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  So again, the hook is crucial here.
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  The fact that TG said they got money on the seven and a half
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  and the seven halfs are falling a bit.
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  If they lose by 7, we want to win this bet.
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  So I was able to shop around and get the hook.
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  I'm on Cowboys again. Hold your nose, put on the
• 11:22
  hazmat suit, but remember the look head was only 5 1/2 and
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  that was with Cooper rush. So let's take the points here I
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  am on Cowboys plus 7 1/2 at -120 and I'll just mention our
• 11:33
  friends at rhythm 2 system matches or two predictions here.
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  1 is Cowboys plus 5.3, the other is Cowboys plus 4.4.
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  So again, expecting a closer game tells me you've got some
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  some value here to take the point.
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  So give me the boys. Can you show up and keep it
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  close? Can you just lose by 7?
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  And that's all I'm asking for at -127 1/2 Cowboys next one.
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  I'm going to play the total here too, guys.
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  I don't love the fact that it's falling and we're getting the
• 12:00
  worst number, but it's been so sharp with no buyback that maybe
• 12:03
  we get a very low scoring like 17 to 10 games, something like
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  that. Now this Houston Texans Cowboys
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  total it open it as high as 43 and a half 43.
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  Now it's down to 41 and a half 41 so so there's been very
• 12:18
  consistent movement on the under with no buyback at draftking 64%
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  of bets are going over yet the total fell tells us smart money
• 12:26
  under. But at circa, again, I love that
• 12:29
  we can now compare these two bet splits.
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  Circa the under is getting 50% of bets, so 5050.
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  But 77% of money money, money money is on the under.
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  So great bet split telling us the the sharps that go into
• 12:42
  circa and place bets. They're going under here.
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  Now the Texans are 8 and two to the under this year.
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  Best under team in the NFL. So I'm going to go under now
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  once again with the side got to find the hook 7 1/2 with a
• 12:53
  total. Do your best to get the hook on
• 12:55
  the under 41 1/2. If it lands 41, we want to win
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  this bet, not push. Right now, ESPN bet and FanDuel
• 13:02
  are both offering under 41 1/2 at -115 or -120.
• 13:07
  So I'm going to play that under 41 1/2.
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  So Cowboys plus 7 1/2 the total under 41 1/2.
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  And then here is a prop bet for you.
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  Dalton Schultz, the tight end used to play for Dallas.
• 13:20
  Now he's on Houston revenge game potentially, but I'm going to
• 13:25
  go, what's his name? Dalton Schultz.
• 13:27
  I had a kid I used to go used to be in high school with his name
• 13:31
  was Dylan Schultz. So I was screwed up.
• 13:33
  But anyway, Dalton Schultz over 27 1/2 receiving yards.
• 13:36
  Shop around. I saw one book at 28 and a half,
• 13:38
  29, 27 half was available. FanDuel and ESPN bet.
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  But I like Schultz to get you hopefully.
• 13:45
  Let's give some cushion 30 or more or at least 28 or more.
• 13:49
  But anyway, he has caught or he just caught 3 passes for 66
• 13:53
  yards last week. He's gone over this number and
• 13:56
  three of his last four. He's gone over this number and
• 13:58
  five of his last seven. He ranks 3rd on the team and
• 14:01
  targets with 48. Only Tank Dell and Stefan Diggs
• 14:04
  have more now. Stefan Diggs is out for the year
• 14:07
  and since Diggs got hurt, you've seen Schultz's usage and and
• 14:11
  target rate increase. So he's got this rapport
• 14:14
  hopefully with with CJ Stroud. Now Nico Collins is back
• 14:19
  tonight. Everyone's playing the Nico
• 14:20
  Collins over the CD lamb overs. This would kind of fit with our
• 14:24
  kind of, you know, I guess, you know, supplementary or second
• 14:27
  tier player where again, it's harder for the odds makers to
• 14:30
  set these numbers for these these, you know, second, third
• 14:33
  tier players. So I'm thinking if Nico Collins
• 14:36
  is back and you're the Dallas Cowboys, you're probably going
• 14:39
  to want to key on Nico Collins. So if we are, you know, with
• 14:43
  Dalton Schultz, you know, does he get favorable coverage?
• 14:46
  Is he, you know, kind of in a good spot where, you know,
• 14:49
  they're focusing on Collins and he can, you know, wreak some
• 14:52
  havoc over the middle, one-on-one with a slow
• 14:54
  linebacker or a smaller defensive back.
• 14:56
  And then the cherry on top with the Dalton Schultz over over 27
• 15:01
  1/2, we are looking at a rhythm prediction here of 40.6
• 15:05
  receiving yards. I mentioned again, it's a
• 15:07
  revenge game. We're not going to put a ton
• 15:08
  into that. But 40.6 rhythm, we're getting
• 15:13
  an over 27 1/2. He's gone over this number at a
• 15:15
  good rate here recently. Keon, Nico Collins, maybe he can
• 15:18
  feast over the middle. I'm going to play Dalton Schultz
• 15:21
  over 27 1/2 receiving yards. So 3 plays on this Monday Night
• 15:25
  Football game. Can we find a way to get two of
• 15:27
  them? Cowboys plus 7 1/2, the under 41
• 15:31
  1/2 and Dalton Schultz over 27 1/2.
• 15:35
  Now over to some college basketball because we got some
• 15:38
  good college hoops games here for tonight and I found 2 plays
• 15:42
  for tonight that I'm excited to sweat.
• 15:44
  Let's start off with a big game. It's the most heavily bet game
• 15:47
  of the night. It is Gonzaga against San Diego
• 15:50
  State. Now this one is interesting for
• 15:53
  a couple reasons. Gonzaga is laying 10 on the
• 15:55
  road. They're a big public play.
• 15:58
  You know, you could tell me you like San Diego State here in the
• 16:00
  points as a contrarian opportunity.
• 16:02
  I'm not going to play the side, but I am going to play the total
• 16:06
  and I'm going to go under. Now try to find under 150, if
• 16:10
  not under 149, 1/2. Now the first thing that jumped
• 16:13
  out to me is this total is dropping.
• 16:16
  We open this total as high as 153.
• 16:18
  Now it's down to 150 or 149 1/2. So what does that tell us?
• 16:22
  It tells us that in the most heavily back game the night
• 16:25
  again the public is going over. In this one, the public is 64%
• 16:29
  to the over, yet it fell. So tells me smart money is going
• 16:33
  under. Now, if you look at a couple
• 16:36
  indicators here that are important to me.
• 16:38
  One, aside from this most heavily back game, contrarian
• 16:41
  reverse line move under. We know the Zags are a great
• 16:45
  scoring team, 100 points per game.
• 16:47
  But San Diego State is a really good defensive team.
• 16:49
  They're only giving up 53 points per game.
• 16:52
  San Diego State ranks #16 in terms of defensive efficiency or
• 16:56
  defensive rating, Zags are 29th. And remember, in college there
• 17:00
  are 364 teams. So we basically have two teams
• 17:04
  that are both in the top 29 in defensive rating.
• 17:08
  Now, Gonzaga is usually very, very fast.
• 17:10
  Tempo wise, they're a little bit slower.
• 17:12
  This year they're ranked 49th. Usually they're top five, top
• 17:15
  10. San Diego State is very slow.
• 17:19
  They are in the bottom third in terms of tempo.
• 17:22
  The other angle here that I like to the under would be kind of
• 17:26
  the mindset of San Diego State. Like you're playing Gonzaga who
• 17:29
  scores a ton and it is still quick.
• 17:32
  You don't want to get into a shootout with with Gonzaga.
• 17:34
  I think if you're going up and down the court exchanging
• 17:36
  baskets, that's a battle you're going to lose.
• 17:38
  But if you're a slower team that is good defensively, what do you
• 17:42
  want to do? You want to keep this lower
• 17:44
  scoring you. You don't want to get into a
• 17:46
  shootout. The lower scoring you keep it
• 17:49
  again, the more I think your chances of, you know, winning
• 17:52
  again, they don't care about covering the 10, but they care
• 17:54
  about trying to win the game. So that kind of jives with the
• 17:57
  fact that we're seeing this total drop.
• 17:59
  And I wanted to look at 1 angle here because I just want to
• 18:04
  double check. Yeah, if you look at DraftKings,
• 18:07
  only 37% bets, but 47% dollars are on the under.
• 18:12
  And at Circa, you're getting more than 90% of dollars on the
• 18:17
  under. So if it's your most heavily
• 18:19
  back game of the night, everyone's playing the over yet
• 18:21
  the totals dropping and we have, again, a slower good defensive
• 18:25
  team, San Diego State. This sounds like an under to me,
• 18:27
  guys. Now if you look at Ken Palm, I
• 18:29
  think he has it at 151 Rhythm has it at like 149.7.
• 18:34
  So it's not a huge rhythm or Ken Palm edge.
• 18:37
  But this is kind of an old school cap for me.
• 18:39
  Heavily back game public's playing the over the totals,
• 18:42
  dropping, good defense, slower tempo.
• 18:45
  I'm going to play this under. So try to find, if you want to
• 18:48
  play it, try to find Gonzaga under 150.
• 18:51
  You might find a book 150 1/2. I saw that at one book, but I
• 18:55
  don't know how widely available that is.
• 18:57
  Mostly one 5149 1/2, but let's get a lower scoring game.
• 19:01
  Zags and the Aztecs next one for you.
• 19:05
  Going to get right back to our obscure sharp line moves.
• 19:08
  Idaho State, Cal State Fullerton another 10:00 game that Gonzaga
• 19:11
  games 10:00 as well. So it's going to be a late night
• 19:14
  for us tonight. But this one jumped out to me.
• 19:16
  Cal State Fullerton against Idaho State.
• 19:20
  First thing that jumped out is we have a sharp move toward Cal
• 19:22
  State Fullerton. This game opened at basically at
• 19:25
  pick em and you had some shops even open.
• 19:27
  Idaho State, a short 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
• 19:31
  But now all movement is on Cal State Fullerton.
• 19:34
  Cal State Fullerton, whether it was a pick em to fave or dog to
• 19:36
  fave, they're now up to -2 1/2. That is really important to me
• 19:41
  because again, on a Monday night game or Monday Night Football
• 19:44
  night, maybe you're playing the one Gonzaga game in college.
• 19:47
  I know there's NBA, but who's excited to sweat Idaho State?
• 19:51
  Cal State Fullerton like this is that perfect low bet obscure
• 19:54
  game that the public doesn't care about, but it looks like
• 19:56
  wise guys have taken a position on.
• 19:59
  If you look at Circa, this is a money line play for me.
• 20:03
  I was able to get Cal State Fullerton -150 on the money
• 20:07
  line. I believe that was a Caesar's.
• 20:09
  Again, they win by one or two. I want to win my bet, not lose a
• 20:12
  -, 2 1/2. But at Circa, again, now we can
• 20:15
  look at these sharper bet splits from Circa.
• 20:18
  Only 40% bets. But 73% money is on Cal State
• 20:23
  Fullerton money line, so I like that angle.
• 20:26
  The other thing that's important to me is it's really fishy
• 20:28
  because Idaho State is 2 and two, and Cal State Fullerton is
• 20:32
  O and four. Cal State Fullerton lost four
• 20:35
  straight, all four games. Idaho State started O and two,
• 20:38
  and they've won two straight. So if Idaho State is 1/2
• 20:41
  straight, Cal State Fullerton is O and four, why is the line
• 20:45
  moving toward Cal State Fullerton?
• 20:46
  Like I get it, they're at home, but seems fishy.
• 20:49
  I want to embrace this fishy line move.
• 20:51
  You do have a one day rest advantage for Cal State
• 20:53
  Fullerton. They played on Friday versus
• 20:55
  Saturday for Idaho State and then also 1 angle.
• 20:59
  Maybe that is maybe playing a role in here is that this is the
• 21:03
  first home game of the year for Cal State Fullerton.
• 21:05
  Like they're O and four, but all four games are on the road.
• 21:08
  Now you're at home. You got a sharp line move in
• 21:10
  your favor. I'm going to money line Cal
• 21:12
  State Fullerton and I did notice our friends at Rhythm had Cal
• 21:16
  State Fullerton winning the game 67.5 to 65.9 so it could be
• 21:22
  close. That's why I want a money line
• 21:24
  instead of lay the wood here. But I'm going to go Cal State
• 21:27
  Fullerton see if they can eke out a win for us.
• 21:30
  Does anyone know their mascot? What are they called the Cal
• 21:34
  State Fullerton Titans. Not the Tennessee Titans, the CS
• 21:40
  Titans. So let's go Cal State Fullerton
• 21:42
  on the money line, Zags under one 5149 1/2 again, Cowboys in
• 21:47
  the hook, under 41 1/2 in the hook, Schultz over 47 1/2.
• 21:51
  Can we find a way to get three of these?
• 21:53
  That is the goal. So that about does it for
• 21:55
  episode 165 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 21:59
  powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod,
• 22:01
  though, where we wrap things up. And I first start by asking a
• 22:05
  favor of you. Could you please do me a solid?
• 22:08
  Could you help me to grow this podcast by doing one simple,
• 22:11
  easy, quick thing? I swear to you, it's very
• 22:13
  painless. It'll take you 2 seconds.
• 22:15
  Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
• 22:18
  If you enjoy the breakdowns, If you want to help me grow the
• 22:21
  pod, boom. Five stars will go a long way to
• 22:23
  helping us to continue this momentum as the pod continues to
• 22:27
  grow, which I'm very very proud of.
• 22:28
  If you want to leave a nice review or click the follow
• 22:30
  button or recommend it to a friend, that would also be
• 22:33
  fantastic. Next up, if you enjoy this style
• 22:37
  of betting breakdown, we're not betting based on what we think
• 22:40
  or want or hope will happen. We're not betting based on gut
• 22:43
  instinct or bias. Believe me, I tried that when I
• 22:45
  first started. It didn't work.
• 22:47
  You gotta believe in the data and trust the data.
• 22:49
  And if we can do that again, that's kind of the bread and
• 22:53
  butter as a data-driven contrarian, better looking at
• 22:58
  how a line moves again, looking at bet splits, system matches,
• 23:01
  flat betting, not parlaying. If any of this style of betting
• 23:04
  appeals to you and you want to learn more about data-driven
• 23:07
  betting or again, going into the holiday season, get a very quick
• 23:11
  and simple less than 20 bucks stocking stuffer, I would
• 23:14
  recommend buying my book. It'll mean a lot to me.
• 23:16
  Guys, if you got some extra extra bones in your pocket, the
• 23:20
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting, just go to Amazon.com,
• 23:22
  type it in and it's got everything I've learned in the
• 23:24
  industry. How lines are set, how and why
• 23:26
  they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 23:28
  action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
• 23:32
  for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
• 23:34
  It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 23:37
  Betting. So pick one up, bring it to the
• 23:39
  sports book and give it to me. I'll sign it for you and I'll
• 23:42
  buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together.
• 23:46
  Next up, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial
• 23:49
  of Juice Reel or Rhythm? Well, if you haven't, now's the
• 23:52
  time to do it. Rhythm is fantastic for their AI
• 23:54
  backed game bets and predictions for both player props and
• 23:58
  conventional spread money line total juice reel.
• 24:00
  Of course, if you want to tell their robo Jackson best bet
• 24:03
  picks, look at arbitrage opportunities, look at sharp
• 24:06
  mush indicators, syncing up your sports books and of course now
• 24:10
  on juice reel. You can support the pod on the
• 24:13
  social tab by following the all systems go best bets you can get
• 24:17
  them there again, 499 a week. If you're interested.
• 24:20
  Consider that a tip jar makes it a little more palatable, I
• 24:23
  think. But again, both help me win.
• 24:25
  I think they're going to help you win.
• 24:27
  I'm pretty confident of that. So please go sign up if you're
• 24:29
  interested. And you can click those custom
• 24:31
  links that are located in the bio description of the podcast.
• 24:35
  But that about does everybody another pod here in the books.
• 24:38
  This is the part where I leave you with two final messages.
• 24:41
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 24:45
  River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
• 24:47
  Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
• 24:50
  Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
• 24:53
  woods in Massachusetts. They're out in the desert where
• 24:56
  the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his
• 24:58
  number runners, where the lowest juice possible is found, the
• 25:00
  South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 25:04
  stadium swim pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 25:06
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
• 25:09
  And man, we've had a good, good few days here, guys.
• 25:12
  Show me from Friday in Iowa under a Detroit Pistons money
• 25:16
  line, UTSA dog to fave Wyoming under Saturday, show me Arkansas
• 25:21
  Air Force, Georgia, Kansas Sunday.
• 25:23
  Show me Chargers, Bills, Broncos, Steelers.
• 25:26
  Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 25:28
  you. We're going to post about the
• 25:29
  book sweatshop contrarian place all night long.
• 25:33
  So wish the best luck. Everyone have a fantastic Monday
• 25:35
  night. Let's see if we can find a way
• 25:37
  to get three out of these five bets here.
• 25:39
  And he got a winning night, which is always the goal.
• 25:42
  And of course, I'll leave you with this.
• 25:44
  We're running hot right now, but sometimes we run cold.
• 25:46
  That's sports betting. There's ups and downs.
• 25:48
  You're never as hot as you think when you're hot.
• 25:50
  You're never as bad as you think when you're cold.
• 25:52
  But again, if we can stay true to the model long term, I think
• 25:55
  that's the most important thing, staying even keeled and sticking
• 25:58
  to the model. And again, what is that model
• 26:01
  for all those in the back? That model is data-driven, sharp
• 26:04
  contrarian betting. If we can again find situations
• 26:07
  where we can bet against the public with the house, with the
• 26:09
  pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get some closing line value.
• 26:13
  If we can do that, place beds with our bets with our head and
• 26:16
  not our heart and be with the sharp money, which is so
• 26:19
  important because again, sharp bets won't win every time, but
• 26:22
  they're going to win a majority of the time, 55 to 60% long
• 26:25
  term. So we can stay true to that
• 26:27
  model. I think we're going to be OK
• 26:29
  long term. So have a great Monday night
• 26:31
  everybody. So you can cash some tickets and
• 26:34
  then of course, we'll be back at it for tomorrow, which will then
• 26:37
  be episode 166 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 26:40
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
• 26:44
  Enjoy your Monday night.