Latest / Toadstool Sports / Cubs/Giants MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Best Bets Thursday 8/28/25

Transcript

Cubs/Giants MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Best Bets Thursday 8/28/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: broins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins arch Haape? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: act with you as I always am until I die
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the Slump series, the Slump discontinuous, The Slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up? Everybody's towed back with you? This
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: is better off dead. Thursday, August twenty eighth, and we
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: have college football. We have the biggest college football board
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: that we've had so far. So my official Week one
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: video I'm still gonna wind up doing tomorrow night, but
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be super late because I'm going to nine
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: inch nails as well, so be on the lookout for that,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: but it'll probably be at like one am or maybe
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: beyond that. I have to figure out when I'm an
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: actually handicap it, but I already have I think two
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: plays and I'm gonna give out on the Saturday slate.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give a college football play out for today's
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: slate on this show. It's not a huge slate. I
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: looked and I was like, oh God, there's a big
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: college football board today, But there actually isn't. It's not
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: that big, so I don't think the show is gonna
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: be that long. We have a short baseball card as well.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out one baseball play on the show
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: as well, and WNBA. I guess I'll talk about it,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: but I'm not really interested. Yesterday one and one, but
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: a slight win on the show. We got the easy
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: win on the Mets Nolan McClain. I mean, this guy
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: looks like the real dem man. I mean, if you
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: can do that against the Phillies. I know the Phillies
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: are kind of in in a bad they're in bad
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: form right now. But that was a nice easy winner,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: a shutout win. I think it was six and nothing
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Mets Mets with the sweep. The Toronto loss was extremely frustrating, man,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: because I gave it out on the run line. Of course,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: if you went with a minus one run line, it
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: would have been a push for you. The minus one
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and a half was a loser, although it was at
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: plus money, so it wound up being a slight win
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: if you did exactly what I did yesterday. A small
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: winning day, which I'm not happy about because Toronto fell
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: behind multiple times. They actually pulled ahead early as well,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: fell back behind, and then they were behind multiple runs
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: and then they wound up winning the game anyway. I
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: think they scored three runs in the bottom of the
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: eighth inning to win, which meant they weren't gonna bat
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: in the ninth, which is the risks that you take
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: with the minus one and a half run line with
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: the home team. But I really don't think that game
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: should have been even as close as it was. Toronto. Well,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I think the hits might have been the same between
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: both teams if you look at the starting pitching. I
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: think I still handicapped the starting pitching correctly. Woods Richardson
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: was bad, like he gave up five runs. I think
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: he might have walked three guys or something in three innings.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: He was out of there. And on the other side,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Lauer had like a good strike a walk ratio. Let
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: me see, actually, I'll just I'll look real quick. Let
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: me just make sure I'm getting this right here, because
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be extra pissed by the way. If Toronto
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: hit on the minus half run in the first five innings,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure if they did, but it was still
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: really frustrating because Toronto wanted to winning the game by
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: one run in the end, so it was like they
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: were still the better team in the game, and you
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: don't get anything out of it. You get a loss
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: out of it. Anyway, Woods Richardson had two walks my mistake,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: but he gave up three home runs three and two thirds.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: LOWERD didn't make it five innings. He just got hit.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even understand. LOWERD gave up four home runs,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: ten hits. I mean, that's crazy. There was also a
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: defensive laps behind him because there were two unearned runs
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: that scored. Toronto made two errors, so that didn't help either.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I mean not something you totally expect there. LOWERD did
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: last longer into the game and he had four strikeouts
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: no walks, so he was still the better of the
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: two pitchers in the game in my opinion, based on
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: the command numbers, which I think matter a little bit
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: more Toronto. Let me make sure of this. It was
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: no Toronto was losing at the end of five as well,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: so that wouldn't matter. So they were behind then and
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: they won on the full game. So again, if you
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: did the minus one run line, you at least got
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a push. But yeah, I'm not happy about it. Let's
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: move on today. We'll talk about WNBA first. Just to
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: get it out of the way here. I got a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: lot of tabs up here today. Man, I'm keeping tabs
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: on everything. We have three games here, Washington at New York.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I mean Washington at this point, I think they know
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna make the playoffs. At this point, they've
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: really fallen off with four losses in a row. I mean, yeah,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: they're playing the Liberty, who were the champs from last year,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: so they still might step it up for that game.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: But so maybe this would be one game where they'll
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: actually still show up and play the Liberty. They're coming
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: off that close win over Connecticut, so they're not exactly
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: playing well right now, so they might actually show up
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: focused here, you know, because they still are battling for
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: the one seed in the Eastern Conference or whatever seed
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: that would be in the playoffs. So they definitely have
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: a reason to show up here. So I think there's
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: maybe more motivation on the side of the Liberty here Washington. Again,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: motivation would be, well, we just want to show up
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: to play a team that's good. It's a thirteen point favorite.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: On the side of the Liberty, I mean, I would
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: probably lean towards laying it slightly but that's not gonna
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: be anything I'm gonna do. Seattle at Minnesota probably the
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: best of these three games, the only one that's not
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: a double digit spread. Seattle I think has more motivation
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: in this one because they're one game above five hundred,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: they're on the cusp, they're trying to get a playoff spot,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: and they just got obliterated by the Indiana fever with
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I believe now, well we know with no Caitlyn Clark,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: but I think also with no Sophie Cunningham at this point,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: so because she's injured for the season. So I don't
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: know how did Seattle lose that badly to this injury
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: decimated team. I don't know the Indiana does Boston Mitchell.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not bad, They're like, they're still an
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: al right team. They'd actually be pretty stacked if they
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: if they actually if Kitland Clark actually comes back, and
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: if Sophie Cunningham was there. But Seattle's coming off that.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: But then on the other side, people are gonna look
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: at see minutes just beat Indiana in their last game
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: actually twice, So I think the just the recreational handicapper
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: is gonna look at this and think, well, if Minnesota,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, the team with the best record in the
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: entire league, they just beat Indiana twice in Indiana just
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: beat Seattle I think by double digits, right, by twenty
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: points or whatever, So it looks like really easy, right
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: you lay the points with Minnesota. They're actually up from
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to nine and a half here.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: That would be the general thinking, I think from the
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: recreational betters, but I would lean the other way. I'm
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: in Minnesota again. They got a lot of padding for
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: their one seed here right now, so Seattle has more
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: motivation here. I mean, they're trying to make the playoffs.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: We see basically no injury issues at this point for Minnesota.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I know Collier is that her name, their best player
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: was injured for a while, but she's been back, so
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think this is like an injured player spot
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. Yeah, Nefeza, CALLI your terrible name,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: but yeah, she's one of the best players in the league.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: She should probably be MV But she did come back
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: after missing almost a month. She came back for that
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: most recent game against Indiana, I believe, and so now
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: it's no longer a reverse injured player spot there. I
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: would lean to taking the points with Seattle in that one,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: and then Chicago at Phoenix. Chicago, I mean, they're just
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: there are a team that's had a lot of injuries
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: this year. They're not good anyway. Phoenix is battling for
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: playoff positioning, so they probably have more to play for here.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: They've won four of the last five games as well.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: They're returning home from a road trip, but it was
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: only a trip out to LA so it's not really
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: a big deal. Wasn't along road trip, so it probably
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: won't be the typical distraction spot. Although I'm not sure
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: that Chicago is really a team you're gonna get up for.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Chicago did just play a pretty tough game against Vegas,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: who is a pretty good team, playing them close, so
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna be a little bit
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: kind of hung over from that big effort. But they're
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: traveling out on the road again, Phoenix probably does have
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit more of the motivation there, though. Phoenix
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: is down for and after twelve though. This is the
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: probably the more difficult of the three games to read. Yeah,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if I would even give out
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: a lean in this game. To be honest. I mean,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: this game is just difficult to read WNBA. I only
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: UH will give out plays sparingly. But it's been a
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: winning season for me. Curtis, what's up man? Thanks for
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Man. I always have like I got fucking
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: heart person, I should be popping like Zantac in the
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: morning or something. Let's go to Major League Baseball here.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: I'll give out one play and then I have a
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: one other fairly strong lean. We got afternoon baseball today
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: because it's Thursday, we have a short baseball card today.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: I believe it's seven games today, eight games whatever it is.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: So some of teams are gonna be traveling, so they're
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: playing in the afternoon. My bust In Red Sox are
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: the first game up at one oh five Eastern, not
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: even televised nationally. You have heartburn as well? It sucks, man,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I think. I mean, I drink oatmeal oats over in
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: the morning. It seems like that starts giving me the heartburn.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's the coffee, though I drink a lot of coffee.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It seems like I always have it,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: like in the morning when I do the show though,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: and I had it last night, though, when I did
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: a Jose's show, we started reading Chaos Theory by Bob Murphy.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I belched in the middle of the show, so I'm
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: sure everybody enjoys that better than Jose farting at the
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: end of one of the Happa shows a few weeks ago.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: If anybody caught that, this is what we do, man,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: we make belch and fart jokes. My Red Sox are
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: at the Orioles. Let's get into it, man, this is
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: we'll call it. We'll still call it the Rundown. I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: need to change this to like the breakdown for Week
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: one for college football. It needs to be a more
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: sport generic thing at least. But yeah, Red Sox are
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore. The Red Sox are on the verge of
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: sweeping Baltimore. They've already won the first three games of
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: this year as although two of them were by one run,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: including yesterday where the Red Sox got a ninth inning
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: two run run from Sadan Rafael. When the Red Sox
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: are losing two to one, extreme clutch hitting there, it's
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: not like the Red Sox are really gonna be looking
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: ahead to this weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Though,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: although it's pretty bullshit. Though, the Red Sox have to
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: face the Pirates and they wind up facing Paul Skeins
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: in that series. That sucks. So the Red Sox have
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: to face the one elite pitcher that Pittsburgh has in
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: that series. That does suck. Speaking of elite pitching, the
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have theirs going today. By the way, the
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Red Sox do have the better bullpen here, they do
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: have the better offense here, they're the better team. But
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the way this series has been lined hasn't really made
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox a huge favorite, although you know with
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Crochet on the mound, they are going to be a
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: bigger favorite. Red Sox use a little bit less of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: their bullpen, Yester, even though they use one other reliever,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Wilson through one pitch so he may be available today.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: That maybe essentially like he didn't pitch, but I don't know. Man.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Red Sox still have the better bullpen either way, they
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: got the better starter with Garret Crochet pitching two point
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: three to eighty ra one point zero six whip, very
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: similar home and away numbers, not significant splits at all.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Maybe a concern potentially that Curchet is wearing down because
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: this is his longest season that he's pitched in his career.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: But he's been good recently. Man this month he has
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: a three point two to foury IRA and had one
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: questionable start against Houston. Even still has a thirty two
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: to four strikeout walk ratio. It's allowed two or fewer
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: earned runs in every start. Besides that, going all the
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: way back through the beginning of July, last time out
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: pretty much dominated the Yankees for seven innings, eleven strikeouts,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: one walk, one on and run allowed. Now, the one
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: concern maybe that he threw over one hundred pitches in
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: that one, which I know he is used to doing that,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: but you see what happens when he throws over one
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: hundred pitches. He actually did that one time. He did
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: it and then he did badly against Cincinnati in the
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: next time out, or not great at least. The last
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: time he threw over one hundred pitches was the game
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: before the game against Houston where didn't do that well.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: So it is possibly he's in for a little bit
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot here. I mean, that's a big
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: game against the Yankees, huge performance, throw over one hundred pitches,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: great outing for him, got the win. I don't think
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: he's gonna completely fall off and have a terrible start.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I mean that's just I mean, you don't really ever
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: want to You can't really ever predict that one of
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the best pitchers in baseball is gonna be horrible and
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: any give it start or anything like that. I don't
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: think he'll be as good as he was in his
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: last start, but he does have good numbers against Baltimore.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Very limited sample size though, fourteen at bats, so Baltimore
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: hasn't even really seen him that much, so they might
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: actually struggle to figure him out here. Five strikeouts, two walks,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: one forty three average, four to sixty four ohps allowed.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: So again, I mean, I'm still not gonna say Crochet
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: is gonna do badly in this one. Baltimore has kde
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Povich pitching, who is a young lefty. He does have
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: some decent upside. I mean, he's been dealing with some injuries.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, he shows glimpses of maybe being a pretty
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: good pitcher, but his numbers throughout his career haven't been good.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Five point one to three ERA, one point four to
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: three whip, although again there's still time for him to improve,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: which I think might happen at some point. He is
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: really bad at home this year thought six point two
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: to two ERA at home this month, he hasn't been
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: very good five point six ERA. Didn't make it five
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: innings last time out against Houston, allowed four on runs,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: but the defense laps behind him so he couldn't get
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: out of whatever jams he was in. He did face
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Houston to start right before that too, so uh, Houston
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: was recently familiar with him. He does have a twenty
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: seven to nine strike a walk ratio this month, which
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: isn't too bad. Baltimore has lost his last four starts
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: in a row, though, although he hasn't a lot more
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: than four and runs in any of them. His numbers
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: against the Red Sox are actually good. In fifty five
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: at bats, seventeen strikeouts, two walks, one eight two batting
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: average of five to one ops allowed, so the Red
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Sox don't do a whole lot against him. Although Nathaniel
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Lowe has hit a home run off and the problem is,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: I think Nathaniel it was actually out for this game
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: because he's on paternity leave. It's like, come on, man,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: you're in the middle of a playoff. Huntier playoff race
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: and you're gonna you're gonna miss you know, your job,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: your game. I mean, yeah, having a baby is a
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: big deal, but come on, man, I like, I like
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the NHL style better man. We're like the Bruins were
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: like in the middle of a playoff game or something,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: and I forget which player it was. One of their
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: players had a baby earlier that day and he like
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: went to the hospital, was like, hell, yeah, we had
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the baby, and then he still showed up and played
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: in the playoff game. That was two years ago. I
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: think I forget which player it was. I was like, hell, yeah,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: that's what it should be. But anyway, yeah, I mean
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: this game to me, I mean, just based on those
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: matchup stats that we see, there could be an under
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: in this game. Uh. The Red Sox are rough for
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: mist one to sixty to minus one, nine seventy percent tickets,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent of the cash. Don't love laying a
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: huge road favorite like this man, Red Sox. The money
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: seems to have come in on the Red Sox though,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: pushing them way up in this Battle of left yc here.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: But again, I think under is probably the better way
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: to look at this game. You could keep the bullpens
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: still in it all. The Baltimore's bullpen's not very good.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: If you wanted to go first five innings and go
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: under somewhere in the four vicinity, probably you could do
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: that as well. I think the starting pitching might actually
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: be decent here. And then, of course we've seen Boston Baltimore.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I think they basically had unders in what is if
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: five games in a row their games have all gone under,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: probably something like that. So it's not going out on
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a limb to say it might be an under when
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: you actually get one really good pitcher on the mound.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Totals zeen for May and have to eight eighty one
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, only seventy seven percent
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over, so public for some
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: reason coming in on the over in a crochet game.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: But the money has seemingly signaled against that the market
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: is signaling on the under, So I do agree with that.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably the best way to approach that game.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Arizona Milwaukee. Arizona actually got the win yesterday, which I
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: think I mentioned that I slightly leaned that way. Milwaukee
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: had won the first two games of this series. This
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: is a four game series, and now we can see
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the Brewers. They're hurting a little bit in their bullpen man,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: because now Miguil has gone on the DL. Although this
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: is probably I mean, if you're gonna have to have
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: your closer on the DL for some period of time,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: doing it right now and then getting him back once
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: you make the playoffs, this is probably the one of
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: the better times to actually have that happen because they
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: have a big padding in their division right now. The
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Cubs are playing like ass so I mean, maybe not
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the worst thing for the Brewers, but that is going
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: to downgrade their bullpen a little bit. As far as
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage yesterday, I mean, they still have a
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: better bullpen anyway over Arizona, though for this game's purposes,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Arizona's bullpen we know is not good. Arizona's bullpen fairly
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: heavily used over the last couple of days. Milwaukee not
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: quite as heavily used, and they'll probably have to call
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: somebody up to take that place. But Milwaukee does the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: better of the two bullpens. Arizona has the better offense.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Although both teams have good offenses, this pitching matchup is like, oh, God,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: this is an ugly pitching matchup. Man Nobill chrismod is
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: pitching for Chris Matt. I don't know how you pronounced
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: his name, pitching for the Diamondbacks here. He's a thirty
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: year old Columbian pitcher hasn't done a whole lot in
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: the league. I don't even know. I don't know how
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: to figure this guy out. Man. He's made two starts
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: this season so far. One was at cors Field and
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: the other one was against Cincinnati at home, so he
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: pitched in hitter friendly parks and he only gave up
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: one ear and run across nine innings across those two
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: those two starts. But he did a four walks across
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: those two starts and nine strikeouts, So based on those
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: walk numbers, maybe you could say he got a little
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: bit lucky he'd only allow one on run. It looks
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: like he probably should have allowed some runs when he
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: went four innings against Cincinnati, allowed three walks and four hits,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: So he's probably not as good as his numbers look.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: A one ERA and one point two to whip if
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: you look at his career stats, I mean, he's been
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: a journeyman since twenty twenties. Career numbers are not really
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: as good as that. One point three whip in his
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: career is not very good, although he has an ERA
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: in the threes in his career, which isn't too bad.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has almost no experience against him. Only five at
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: bats between two batters have faced him before. They're one
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: for five of the strikeout and no extra base hits
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: and no walks, so they might be a little bit
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: of a disadvantage just because they basically haven't faced Chris
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: map before, although we don't know how deep into the
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: game he's gonna go. And if you get Arizona's bullpen
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: in this game for five innings or something like that,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's great for Arizona. Jose Quintana's pitching
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: for Milwaukee, who at least is the more established starter
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: of the two, and he's having a surprisingly good season
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: at his old age. He's the way he's like the
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: worst pitcher in the Brewers' rotation, and he's still not
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: doing that bad even though he's an old, you know,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: kind of manned junk pitcher. Three point three two ERA
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: one point two to five whip. His whip is a
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: little bit high and he's not as good at home
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: four point three to one ERA at home this month.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: His numbers are still pretty good with a two point
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: eight three ERA twenty to six strikeout walk ratio. His
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: team has won four of his five starts, so he's
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: still pitching well. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: in all of them. I mean he's not allowing runs.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: I mean that's the thing. He doesn't strike out a
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: ton of guys, but he's not putting a lot of
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: guys on base either. So he has a lot of
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: five home runs this month, which I guess is the
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: worst stat that he has this month. Against the d Backs,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: his numbers are okay. In seventy at bats, two fifty
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: seven batting average A lot isn't that bad. But he's
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of seven to seventy three ops, which is
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit higher. Fourteen to six strike out walk
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: radio not that great of a ratio. So it is
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: possible Kintana does somewhat struggle in this one. I'm kind
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: of leaning towards an over in this game. I mean,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the total is pretty high. It's at nine. It's gone
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: up from nine to juice to the under seventy five
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: the over. Money is also coming in against Milwaukee, down
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: for minus one sixty five to minus one fifty five,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of tickets, eighty three percent of the
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: cash on them. So Milwaukee is the public side. Money
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: seems to be coming in against them. But I think
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the over is probably the better way to look at this,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I mean, you have two very capable offenses,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: two pretty questionable starting pitchers in my opinion, one bad
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: bullpen on the side of Arizona and a bullpen that's
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: at least somewhat questionable on Milwaukee side, especially now without
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: their closer. So probably the over would be the way
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: I would go in that game Colorado at Houston. I
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: told you I thought Houston would probably bounce back yesterday
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: from that really ugly loss in the return home spot,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: and they did, and they shut out Colorado yesterday four
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: to nothing to even the series. We all know Houston's
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the better of these two teams. Houston has the better offense,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Houston has the better bullpend, Houston has the better starter.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, there's not a whole lot go for
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Colorado here, but they you know in certain spots they
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: definitely can get wins. Colorado, even though their bullpen does suck.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: They haven't had a lot of bullpen usage, although neither
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: has Houston. Very light bullpen usage from Houston, so we'll
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: see what happens with them. Even though Houston lost their
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: up SORR, I went to some college football returning production there.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: We will talk about that briefly. But yeah, in this game, yeah, Houston,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: I mean their bullpen. Even though they lost hate or
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: their clothes are a while back, they're still rolling. You know,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: They're still in first place in their division. They're still
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: doing their thing. Kyle Freeland is pitching for Colorado on
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: this one. He's not their worst starter, which isn't saying
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: a whole lot. Five point three to one ERA, one
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: point five to two whip pretty terrible. He's better on
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: the road four point five six ERA, so at least
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: he's serviceable when he's not pitching a course field this month,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, five point five to seven e ras, seventeen
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk race, just still not exactly good.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Gave up five runs last time out against Pittsburgh. Very
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: weak lineup, so that's not really good. That was on
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: the road as well, so a more picture friendly park
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: there still didn't do well. Freeland. I mean he's not
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: that good obviously. His numbers against Houston are a mess
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: as well. In seventy three career at bats, nine strikeouts,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: twelve walks, terrible, terrible ratio. There more walks than strikeouts
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: three point fifteen average allowed nine to seventy three ops.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: So Freeland, Yeah, it's looking like he's not gonna match
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: up well against Houston. He's having to go up against
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: George Costanza. Jason Alexander here, who his numbers aren't good either,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: four point five to nine ERA, one point three to
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: seven WHIP, and he's an older dude. I think he's
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: just basically in there to fill out this rotation right now.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: He's been bad at home as well, five point five
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: nine ERA, so both starting pitchers are on the bad
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: side of their home road splits. Houston, surprising, has won
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: all but one of his starts, thus he's been in there.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: There's seven and one and Alexander's starts, which is ridiculous,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: and this past month he has a one point five
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: forty range eighteen to five strikeout walk ratio. I'm about
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: to yell out the window again like an old man
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: pipe down your kids revving their engines on my street,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Like get the fuck out, man. I fucking hate it.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: There's no need for it. But anyway, Yeah, Alexander surprisingly
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: has been good this month, not align more than two
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: runs in any of his starts, including one on the
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: road against the Yankees where he only allowed one hit
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: and no horn runs and six innings and three walks.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: His other starts are against week offenses, though Miami Baltimore twice.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: You remember I gave out Houston on this show in
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: his most recent start against Baltimore, and we got the
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: win in that one. I thought it was a good spot.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: It wasn't really because I like Jason Alexander here. It
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: was more because of the spot that Houston was in
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: and that Baltimore was in. There was a nice revenge
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: spot for Houston there. But anyway, Alexander against Colorado Colorado
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: only is two hitters I've ever seen him before, but
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: they're actually they hit five hundred off him and ate
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: it back with a one five ohps. So he hasn't
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: actually done well against the Colorado bats that have actually
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: faced him before. The money's coming in on the under
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: in this game, and I'm not really sure I agree
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: with that. The total is down from nine to eight
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: and a half, seventy six percent of tickets on the
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: over seventy three percent of the cash on the under.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, you do have to worry about the fact
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: that Colorado's offense really is bad and Houston's offense definitely
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: has had their struggles at times as well. On the side,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Houston is down for my two forty two thirty three
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of tickets ninety one percent of the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: cash on them, So money almost seems like it's coming
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: in on the Houston side. I mean, I could see
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the argument for that. The Houston just has the edge
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: across the board in this game. I mean, I think
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: I would almost say the better way to play this
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: is actually go Houston over their team total. And by
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: the way, I got I got that right with Texas yesterday,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: even though I said I would really hesitate to do that. Texas,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: even though they've been really bad offensively and really bad
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: at home. I think they scored twenty runs yesterday, which
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: seems almost impossible, but they went over their team total.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Houston over their team total might make sense.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: In this particular game, just to beat up on Colorado's
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: bad pitching situation that they have here, you have a
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: big sample size to work within that pitching matchup too,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: so that might make more sense. I mean I was
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: somewhat leaning over full game as well. At least Colorado's
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: bullpend does stink. But if you go over full game,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: you gotta worry about Houston's bullpen actually being good. But
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: if it's a blowout game at that point already, then
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Houston probably won't use their better relievers. So maybe Houston
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: team total over is the better way to approach that.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Saint Louis, This one almost made my card. I
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: have a strong lean in this game Pittsburgh and Saint
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Louis here, and I was right about one of the
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: totals earlier in this series. I said that I liked
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: the over quite a bit, and I think two days
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: ago and that one was correct. This game. I mean, yes,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: we have two pretty struggling offenses. Though Saint Louis has
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: the better of the two bullpens, they do have the
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: better offense as well. Although neither offense is great, Pittsburgh
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: is just that bad. The bullpen's Saint Louis is actually
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: not a bad bullpen. Really, Pittsburgh's mediocre. Pittsburgh used a
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: lot of their bullpen yesterday because they had a bullpen game. Basically,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Modzinsky was the starter yesterday, so Pittsburgh went with a
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: bullpen game yesterday. Sir, bullpen's not totally rested. Saint Louis
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: only used one guy, Savansen out of their bullpen, so
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is in the better bullpen. Rests Anario coming
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: into this one. As far as the starting pitching, this
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: is where I come in, and I think this is
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: a way, this is a way that you can really
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: kind of find like a pretty sneaky under on this game.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: I like the under in this game. The starting pitching
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I think might be better than people expecting this game.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Brax and Ashcraft is pitching for the Pirates. He's still
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: a pretty young guy, and he's got good numbers this
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: year two point seventy RA, one point one eight whip.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: My issue really with him is just that he's a
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: converted reliever right now, so it's like, well, when he
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: shifts to the starting role, how good is he going
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: to be? We don't really know, but we've seen some
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: indication that he's actually gonna be good doing that. At
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: this point. He has a two point two to eight
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Roadie ray this year, which is good as well. Last
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: two outings he's gone five innings a piece in them
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs and against the Rockies what was at home.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: We know the Rockies are a terrible offense, but across
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: those ten innings, he only allowed one or run on
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: four hits and had ten strikeouts in one walk. And
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: he has a twenty to two strikeout walk ratio and
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: three point five to seventy array this month. So he's
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: actually pitching pretty well since he's joined the starting rotation.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: He's not thrown a lot of pitches, but he's efficient
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: with his pitches, throwing only into the sixties pitch count
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: wise to get him through five innings last couple times out.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: So he's still not going to go that deep, I
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: don't think, but you might get five innings out of
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: him here. So interesting to note that. And Saint Louis
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: has never faced him before, even though they're in the
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: same division. A little bit odd. I don't know if
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: he's been on some other teams, but he might have
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an extra edge. No, this is
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: his first season in the majors, so Saint Louis has
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: never faced him before, so he might have a little
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: bit of an extra edge there against Saint Louis, just
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: because they haven't seen him before. Then, on the other side,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Miles michel Less is pitching for the Cardinals. I mean,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been very good. He's, you know, an old
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: veteran pitcher that kind of just tries to get by
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: with his command. He's given up a lot of home
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: runs this season. Five point one to seventy RRA, one
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: point three to six whip not good numbers. Obviously. He's
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: good at home though, three point seventy RRA at homes
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: we're on the right side of his home road splits here.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: He's coming off a really bad outing where he only
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: went two and two thirds against Tampa Bay, a lot
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: of couple of home runs, ten hits, four and runs,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: one walk, one strike up, but that was at steinbern
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Er Field there, which is a very hitter friendly spring
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: training stadium that Tampa plays in. Saint Louis has lost
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: four of his last five outings, so they're not doing
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: well behind him. He's not doing that well, but this month. Yeah,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: he has a seven point two seventy r RAM, and yes,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: his numbers are very bad this month. Six strikeouts, eight walks.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: It's a very very low strikeout rate. Almost all the
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: walks came in one outing against the Yankees where he
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: walked five guys. So maybe you give him a little
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: bit of a pass here because this month he had
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: that tough game in Steinbrener Field, he had to face
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the Yankees as well, speaking of Steinbrenner big Stein, and
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: he had to pitch on the road against the Dodgers.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: So this month, I mean, his numbers are terrible. He's
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: not a good pitcher, but I think he's at least
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: not as bad as he's looked this month, just based
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: on who he's matched up against. And now he's facing
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: the worst offense in all of baseball here, so I
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: think he should have an easier time out this time.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: He has one hundred and seventeen at bats against Pittsburs,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: They are definitely familiar with him. Twenty nine to five
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: strikeout walker ratio pretty good for him, though not a
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: high strikeout rate, but he hasn't walked a lot of them.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Two thirty one batting average allowed six eleven oh ps,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: so he's done well in his career against Pittsburgh, so
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: I think he might be able to bounce back in
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: this game against a very weak lineup. We have two
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: lineups that just haven't been good recently. Pittsburgh's hasn't been
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: good all season really, so I like the under in
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: this game. Uh fifty three percent of tickets on the over,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the cash on the under. Totals
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: dropped a little bit to eight and a half, juice
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: to the under. The money seems to be coming in
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: on the under. I agree with it. I'm a little
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: bit worried about the bullpens, especially because Pittsburgh's coming off
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: that bullpend game. Ashcraft probably will get you through five
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: innings or so in this game, so it might make
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: more sense to go first five innings under, even though
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis's bullpend maybe is good enough to finish the
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: game off with the under here, so I could see
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: arguments for both. But first five innings you're gonna kind
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: of know what you get out of the starting pitching.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: If you can get under you know, four, maybe even
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: four and a half there in the first five innings,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: you could do that as well, but that's the way
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: that I lean. Uh. Saint Louis dropped for minus one
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: twenty five to minus one twelve here, sixty five percent
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: of tickets fifty eight percent of the cash coming in
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. So Pittsburgh is actually looking like a public
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: road underdog here. But there was money line move towards Pittsburgh.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen, so I think
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: if you lean Pittsburgh, you'd have to go first five innings.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: I think they might have the upper hand and the
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup here through the first five. Maybe you
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: look for Pittsburgh, you know, a money line underdog first
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: five innings, but full game when you include the bullpens,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: I think the tide kind of shifts towards Saint Louis there.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: But I think under is the strongest way to play
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: that Cubs Giants, you can see in my title here,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I will give that out as a play. And I
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: don't know how I want to do the best bet
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: segment now though, because do I want to do all
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: of baseball besides my best bet, then college football besides
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: my best bet, and then go back and give those
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: out I kind of don't like that. I kind of
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: want to do each sport, you know, like each sport
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: while I'm talking about each sport in like its own segment,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: and then you know, I do recap my bets at
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: the very end anyway, So I think that's what I'll
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: still do. But then my best bet segment graphic I'm
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: gonna have to show. I'll just show it maybe at
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: the very end of the show this time, how about that?
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Getting autistic about it. Atlanta at Philadelphia. This is interesting
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: because we have teams starting a new series here in
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: this particular series, and same with Miami, New York and
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: New York Chicago. Actually New York New York, both New
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: York's playing today. Atlanta at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is returning over
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: a road trip, but they only went to the Mets,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: so it's not really one of those return home spots.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: So I think you're gonna be really distracted. But Philadelphia
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: is reeling right now. They got swept by the Mets.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: They had a bad series. I got shut out yesterday.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: Although Philadelphia they tend to be a team that bounces back. Man,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: I think this might only be the second time all
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: year that they've lost three games in a row. Maybe
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: it's the first. So Philadelphia, the one thing about them
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: is they are good at bouncing back from a loss.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: But in this return home spot, I'm not so sure
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be what happens here. Although when you look
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: into this matchup, they should have most of the edges here.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: They have the better offense obviously over the Braves. Philadelphia
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: doesn't have a very good bullpen, though I think Atlanta
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: does have the better bullpen. Philly has the better offense,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: and when we dig into this, I think Philly probably
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: has the better starting pitcher in this game as well.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Best bets at the end, I think I'm gonna I'm
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: going against that to some extent, but I'll show the
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: graphic at the end, and I always recap the best
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: bets anyway, let's see here, So Philadelphia bullpen usage wise,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I get way too into this now. Man, there's like
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: two I'm gonna have to stop, Like I said, when
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: we have like these, well, I don't know, because on
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: the weekend football cards, I do the football as a
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: completely separate show. So maybe I'll still handicap every baseball game,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: but it's a lot. Even today, I'm like oh shit,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: this is like a long video too, even though I'm
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: not even handicapping that many games here. Philadelphia they use
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: three relievers yesterday. Their bullpen, they got some injuries going
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: on in their bullpen. Their bullpen's not great up against Atlanta.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is coming off, I believe, beating the Marlins yesterday,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: by the way, and Atlanta only is one relief pitcher yesterday.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: So but Atlanta, they have some momentum. They don't have
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: a whole lot left to play for here, of course,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: with what teams have left to play for, I mean
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I've kind of glossed over all that. Where Milwaukee obviously,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: well I kind of talked about it. Arizona's out of that.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is at least still playing for playoff positioning. Houston
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: is still trying to win their division. Colorado's out of it,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's out of at Boston still fighting for, you know,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: a playoff spot here. Pittsburgh Saint Louis are both out
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: of it. Atlanta is out of it, but they might
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: have some motivation. You're facing, you know, the top team
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: in their division. They'll probably still show up. And Atlanta's
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: coming in from Miami and they've been playing decently the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: last few games, pretty much. They've won three of their
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: last four games. They just blew out Miami twice, so
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: they are at least on a roll right now. They're
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: in good form right now, but this starting pitching matchup
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: doesn't look good for Atlanta with cal Quantro pitching. He's
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: a guy they picked up just because Atlanta has so
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: many starting pitching injuries. Man, it's just derailed their season.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: They're without Chrissale Smith Shover who else they have one
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: other Schwellenbach got hurt as well. I mean, it's just
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: crazy how many starting pitching injuries they have. So they
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: had to get cal Quantrill from the aforementioned Marlins, and
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: his season hasn't been good. He's not good five point
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: five to one ERA, one point four to whip five
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: point seven to four e RA on the road, so
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: he's worse on the road. He's made one start with
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Atlanta so far and it wasn't very good. Failed to
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: go five innings against the Mats. He walked five guys,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: allowed five hits, somehow only allowed three on runs it
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: could have been a lot worse, and struck out three
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: and was not a good start for him up against
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the Phillies. I'm gonna guess he doesn't have good numbers.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know I looked earlier, but yeah, Philly
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: hits him pretty well on one hundred and twenty career bats,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: twenty to nine strike a walk ratio. He's allowed ten
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: home runs to them, which is quite a lot. Schwarber
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: and Baitter have three apiece two eighty three batting average
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: allowed nine to twenty five ops. So Quandrill his numbers
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: are not good against Philadelphia. He's going up against Aaron
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Nola who basically just came back from injury again not
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: too long ago. He's had a very injury plague season,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: so he is definitely a lot better than his numbers
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: would tell you that he is. I think he might
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: have had Tommy John surgery or something, so he's trying
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: to work his way back from a serious surgery and injury.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: You know, some guys never really come back from that.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: But his career stats would definitely suggest that he should
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: start pitching a lot better than what he's done this season,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: where his numbers are atrocious six point five two ERA,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: one point five to three whip basically, I mean almost
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: the same home and away, he's a little bit worse
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: at home six point sixty seven the ra at home,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: at least it's not six six to six. He missed
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: three months of action. He was pitching really badly earlier
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: this season. Since he's come back. He had one bad
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: start his first game back against Washington, allowed six earned
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: runs and two and a third innings. Maybe he'll give
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: him a pass from that for that because he was
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: coming back from injury, trying to get back into rhythm,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: you know, had a bad start. But his most recent start,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: which was also against Washington right after facing him the
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: previous time, which normally should be an advantage to the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: hitters because they just saw him. But they've seen a
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: lot of him. I mean, he's been around for a while.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: He pitched much better in that recent start. Excuse me.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: He went six innings, six strikeouts, one walk, give up
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: five hits, tour in runs, both on solo home runs, though,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: But that start is a decent indicator. It's definitely encouraging
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: that he had like a quality start last time out,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: was good, maybe becoming his old self, even though it
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: was against a somewhat weak offense there of Washington. But
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: Nolan might actually pitch better in this one up against
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: the Braves. His numbers are okay. They have a ton
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: of bats against him, Man, they have two hundred and
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: ninety four career of bats against him. He has a
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: seventy three to twenty three strikeout walk ratio against them,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: which isn't bad. Two sixty two batting average and not
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: seven ninety five OPS. So he's given up somewhat of
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: a high OPS because actually has fifteen home runs off him,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: which is quite a few. Four from Akun, you have
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: four from ozoua three from Harris. But even so, Nola,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, his numbers aren't terrible there, he's still the
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: better pitcher over cal Quantrill, So I mean matchup wise,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think you kind of have to be
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: looking towards Philadelphia in this game, but the money's coming
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: in against them. I think if you do go with Philadelphia,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: probably has to be a first five inning play though,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: well maybe just if you want to avoid their bullpend.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: But they're down for minus one ninety minus one seventy five,
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the tickets on them, fifty percent
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on Atlanta. I don't know
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: what crazy professional vetters are taking a shot with putting
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: their money on cal Quantrell though, seems pretty crazy to me,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: and the money seems to be coming in on the
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: over the totals up to nine and a half, very
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: high total. That would be kind of banking on both
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers not pitching well here though, And I'm not
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: so sure that Nola won't come out and have a
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: decent outing here, so that kind of remains to be seen.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's kind of a wait and see approach
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: with him right now. Although of course if you wait
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: and see with betting, you know you'll allow the market
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: to catch up and then you won't find value anymore.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: But but you also, right now, I don't think you
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: have enough information about Nola, so I don't know. So
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: that's a difficult game to handicap, actually, and Philly's kind
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: of in the bad spot returning home. I do think
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: the Mets are in a bad spot. So my first
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: instinct year was to look to fade the Mets. They're
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: staying at home and they're probably basking in that sweep
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: of Philadelphia. That was a huge sweep for the Mets.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: Man they're playing better again. McClain was awesome yesterday I've
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: I've given out McClain in one way or another two
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: of his three starts so far and gotten you guys
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: two wins on the show, so U two and OHO
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: and McClain games for me with one under in the
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: first five innings, and then last night with the Mets side.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: So there you go with that. But he's not pitching today.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: The Mets don't have to travel at least Miami's coming
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: in Miami maybe in a little bit of an embarrassing mood,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: even though obviously the Mets have something to play for
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: because they're trying to catch Philadelphia, they're trying to make
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: sure they make the playoffs. Miami really the only thing
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: they have left to play for is to try to
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: try to spoil one of their divisional opponents seasons, so
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: they will still probably be motivated. They're going to face
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: the Mets, and they're coming off two really embarrassing losses.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: They gave up double digit runs in two games in
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: a row against Atlanta, losing by a combined twenty three
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: to three score, So Miami probably will show up focus here. Now.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: The problem is, I think the Mets to have basically
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: the advantage across the board in this match up here,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: I think the Mets have the better bullpend, they have
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: the better hitting, and I think they have the better
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher on the mound. Miami used two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: both kind of long relief men, though their bullpend rest
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: scenario isn't too bad. Neither is the Mets. Though the
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Mets only use one relief pitcher yesterday, so the Mets
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen is in good shape with McClain getting them through.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how many innings he pitched, but
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: he apparently went deep into the game. The starting pitching matchup, though,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: really really seems it's not in favor of Miami here
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: with Adam Mazer pitching for the Marlins. Mazor I don't
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: even know how he pronounced his name. His numbers suck
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: six point three five ERA, one point five to nine
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: WHIP not good. He was actually with San Diego last year.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: He made eight starts for them last year and had
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: an atrocious seven point four to nine ERA, one point
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: eight to one WHIP. Had a ton of walks, almost
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: as many walks as strikeouts last year. Strikeout rate was
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: low as well. There's really nothing that I see to
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: indicate that we should like this guy at all. Nothing personal, Adam,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean, even pitching in that pitcher friendly
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: park in San Diego wasn't good. He's only made one
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: start for the Marlins so far this year and it
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: was not great. It was against Philadelphia. They're a good lineup,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: but he gave it four and runs, four walks, five strikeouts,
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: five hits. I think he's kind of lucky eating a
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: lot more runs than that one, so it's not looking
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: good for him. I believe he has faced on the
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Mets before to some extent. Here. Let me see, so
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: up against the Mets. The Mets have not at bats
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: against him. They only have a two twenty two average
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: against him, but they have an eight sixty one ops
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: against them, just because they have two doubles three walks
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: in addition to the three strikeouts. So it's a small
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: sample size. He can't take a whole lot away from that.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: But Mazor, I don't think he's very good man. I'm
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: not liking it at all. He's going up against Clay Holmes,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: and you know, I don't I don't particularly like Clay
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Homes either, but he's at least an established starter at
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: this point. He's had an ok season three point six ERA,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: one point three to two whip is not very good,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: though it's a high whip. He's been a little bit
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: worse at home three point eight four ERA this month.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: His numbers are mediocre four point five RA eighteen to
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: nine strike a walk ratio. Mets have won his last
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: three outings, though, and he's allowed two or fewer and
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: runs in three of the four games. He had one
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: bad start against Atlanta this month, but his other starts
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: have been pretty good, so he's again he's mediocre. I mean,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: I think that's basically what he is. Mediocre. Up against Miami,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: his numbers are all right. Twenty six at bats is
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: a small sample size, so he has eleven strikeouts, one walk.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good, two sixty nine average six O four ops.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: So he's telling Miami down to a decent extent. So
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I do think the problem with this game is I mean,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for the Mets, it's a let
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: down spot. But the problem is it seems like they
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: have the match up edge pretty much across the board here,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: so I don't love it. They're down for minus two
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: fifty to minus two forty one on the money line
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of tickets, only seventy five percent of
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: the cash, so the money coming in against the Mets.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: The reasoning for that could just be that the professional
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: betters think the price is too high, so they think
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: there's some value on the Miami side, even though they're
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: obviously the worst team across the board here. I mean,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of thinking even potentially I could see somewhat
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: of an argument for an over year if you think
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Klay Holmes just isn't really that good. But I don't know,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: it seems a little bit dicey because he might actually
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: pitch well here. Mets over their team total, honestly, is
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: probably the best way to go with this, expecting Mazor
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: plus whatever Miami does with their bullpend to just not
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: be that great. I think I could see the Mets
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: going over their team total here, but they're hitting might
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: be a little bit distracted because they're in a bad spot. Again, obviously,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: I'm not giving out a play on this game. Ninety tickets,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of the cash on the over, so
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: it's a public over as well, money seemingly coming in
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: on the under there. And then the Yankees, Man, the
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: Yankees have an easy schedule right now. They just swept
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Washington easily. Washington sucks. Now they're going out on the
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: road with momentum to face a really bad White Sox team.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: So as a Red Sox fan, I'm not enjoying this
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: very much. The Yankees have a really fucking easy schedule here.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: The White Sox they're staying at home. They did just
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: get blown out by Kansas City yesterday twelve to one.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: It looks like they lost Robert or rebe they're outfield
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: or I don't even know if that matters a whole lot.
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: Because the White Sox offense is really bad as well,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: So the Yankees have the better offense in this game significantly.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: They probably have the better bullpen, doing the White Sox
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: bullpen is not good either, not neither bullpen is very good.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: White Sox use twue relief pitchers yesterday, Yankees actually only
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: used one, so the Yankees bullpen is fairly well rested here.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: So the Yankees pretty much have the edge across the board.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: You could argue the Yankees don't have the starting pitching
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: edge year, though, with Will Warren on the mound, his
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: numbers aren't great this year. Four point four to seven
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: ERA one point four whip is definitely not very good.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: He's been really bad on the road six point h
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: nine ERA on the road coming off, giving up five
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: runs to the Red Sox and four innings. I mean,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: it's a good Red Sox lineup, but he wasn't good
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: in that outing. He walked three guys this month. He
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: has an eighteen to seven strike a walk ratio, which
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: isn't that great. Three point five four ERA is alright.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, he is a good strikeout pitcher, at least
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: for the most part, so he does have that going
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: for him. Up against the White Sox, it's a very
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: bad lineup, so he's stepping down in class. The White
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Socks only have three hitters. We've ever seen it before.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: They're only one for seven, often with a ben In
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: ten d double two strikeouts, no walks, one forty three
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: average allowed four to twenty nine ops. So it is
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: certainly possible Warren does pitch well in this game. Has
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: a decent matchup numbers. He's pretty unfamiliar to the White
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: Sox and their offense is terrible. He's going up against
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Davis Martin, who actually hasn't been that bad for the
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: White Sox this year three point nine to three ERA,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: one point two six whip. He's been good at home
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: three point three ERA at home this month. His numbers
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: are okay, pretty much what you'd expect. Four point two
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: ninety RAS, seventeen to nine strike a walk ratio. Multiple
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: walks in all but one outing isn't a great sign, though,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: and he's faced mostly weak offenses recently. But he did
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: face Philadelphia back in July and didn't do too badly
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: in that one. So he's sort of limiting the damage
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: against pretty much any lineup that he faces. But this
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: is the Yankees, man, I mean, they're one of the
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: best lineups in baseball. And his numbers are not good
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees and sixteen at bats as a small
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: sample three seventy five average allowed nine to forty four OPS,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: four to two strike a walk ratio. Don't know that
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: you can really trust Martin in this game. I mean,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: I was thinking there are some arguments for an under
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: here though, because Will Warren might be able to pitch
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: well against this very bad White Sox lineup. Davis Martin
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: could potentially come out and pitch fairly well here. The
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: total is high at nine and it looks like it's
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: going up a little bit, but it's public. Ninety seven
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets. You see one hundred percent of the
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: cash on the over as well, But that doesn't make
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: any sense. I can see some arguments for it. Maybe
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: you go first five innings under if you want to
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: do that, because both bullpens are bad, so you probably
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: don't want to include the bullpens there, So first five
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: under actually might be kind of a sneaky play in
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: that game. Let me see here. And then ninety two
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets only seventy one percent of the cash
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: on the Yankees money coming in against the Yankees. They
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: are down for minus two hundred to minus one eighty five,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: So money coming in against the Yankees. I mean, I
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: think it's just generally, you know, you're gonna pay too
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: much of a price to play the Yankees in any
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: given game. So I think that's just the way that
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: it is. And we'll go to my bet here, but
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: I won't call this the bet bet the best bet segment,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: how about that? Because we're gonna finish baseball here with
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: my best bet, which is Cubs San Francisco. You probably
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: knew this was gonna be the play because you know,
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: I really, I really like these starting pitching matchups. Man,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: I get you know, I get hard for these starting
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: pitching matchups that I'm like, oh man, this is a
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: good starting pitching matchup. Cubs Giants under the total of seven,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: you can get it a plus money here. I mean,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: if you can find an under seven and a half
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: that you don't have to pay too much for, that's
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: good as well. Obviously, the seven is the key number.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: Definitely don't want to go under six and a half,
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: you know, seven key as the teams have to break
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: a three to three tie. We're looking at two pretty
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: decent bullpens here. San Francisco's is one of the better bullpens.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: A lot of bullpen rest here for the Cubs. The
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: Cubs have not used a lot of their bullpen recently,
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: and weirdly, they actually used two relievers in the last
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: two games. I was like, Jordan Wicks. I thought that
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: was Jordan Hicks for a minute. I'm like, to the
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Red Sox trade Hicks. It's Jordan Wicks, not Jordan Nicks.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: But yeah, weirdly, the Cubs used both relievers they used
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: yesterday they used Tuesday as well, so they have a
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: bunch of relievers that haven't pitched for multiple days, which
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: is crazy, but they have arrested bullpen here. San Francisco
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday, but they've been kind of
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: staggering the rest. So their rest scenario is not too
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: bad either. They're a good bullpen too, so that all
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: looks pretty good to me for the bullpen scenario. We
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: have a really weak offense for San Francisco. Here in
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: the Cubs offense is in really bad form too. I mean,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: look at these alities here. They scored twelve runs once
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim, but going all the way back into this
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee series, they've scored more than four runs only that
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: one time. Yeah, going all the way back, Like when
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: was the last time they did that? They did it once,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: like I said, against Anaheim, once against Milwaukee. I mean,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: this offense has been really struggling for a while. Man,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: They're really struggling to put up runs. Yeah, in their
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: last few games putting up three to two, four twelve.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Was that one big outburst they had, I think a
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: game I gave out the Cubs in that in that
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: game too, I think I had to play on the Cubs.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: They scored three the game before that, one the game
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: before that four four and then six and then zero
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: four three yeah, two one, I mean it's ridiculous. Four
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: one two, I mean, it's so many bad offensive out
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: as you get the point, the Cubs have not been
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: good offensively recently. Man. And then we look at the
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup here. This is two good starting pitchers.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: A show to Imonaga's pitching for the Cubs here. Three
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: point zero three ERA point nine to four whip sub
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: one whip, as I always tell you, was very very good.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: He's been almost the same home and away era wise
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't even matter. This month. He's on point two point
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: three three e R twenty seven to four strike at
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. The Cubs have lost three of his four starts,
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: but it's not his fault. It's the Cubs offense's fault.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: And we're going with an under here, so we like
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: to hear that. He's just coming off a good outing
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: against Milwauke and they lost that game too. Even though
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: you only give up two earned runs. He's given up
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: no more than three earned runs in any start this month,
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: and going all the way back to facing Milwaukee last
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: month as well, He's going to at least six and
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: a third innings in every outing this month, so again
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: he's pitching well. Obviously, it's not his fault that the
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Cubs are losing these games. The Giants haven't faced him
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: a whole lot either. They only have sixteen at bats
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: against them. They have no extra base hits, five strikeouts,
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: two walks, a two point fifty average, and five eighty
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: three ohps, so they're not that familiar with Imanagham. When
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: they have faced him, he's pitched well against them, so
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: I'm expecting him to have a good outing again. Here
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: he's going up against the grinder, Logan Webb, who is
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: the most consistent pitcher for the Giants three point one
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: to three ERA, one point two to two whip. He's
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: really good at home two point seven to seventy RA
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: at home. He is the grinder because he goes deep
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: into games man and the Giants, as bad as their
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: offense is, have actually won three of his last four outings.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: So that's a good sign as well, at least in
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: that he's pitching well. He's allowed one or fewer runs
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: than three at these four starts as well. Twenty five
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: to three strike a, walker rasue this month and two
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: point one to three ERA. Obviously, that tells you he's
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: had really good command this month. He's not walking guys,
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: he's pitching well. Both of our starters are actually coming
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: off and outing against Milwaukee, so they both actually did
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: well against a good offense last time out. Logan Web,
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: I know he's facing a good Cub lineup, but his
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against the Cubs. In ninety four at bats,
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: twelve to seven strike a walker ratio isn't good, but
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: two thirteen batting average allowed six sixty one ops. So
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: the Cubs have not hit Logan Web well. So we're
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the under Here man in San Francisco
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: does have a pitcher friendly ballpark. And if I look
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: at the weather report real quick here and become the
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: weather man, skin as soft as leather. Let me see, giants,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: it's a clear day. It's gonna be only sixty four degrees.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: This is an afternoonwaight, an afternoon game? Is it? For
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: some reason, I was thinking it was a night game
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: because San Francisco is always night. But no, it's afternoon,
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: all right? It is, okay, so it's an afternoon game,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: which you know, I I prefer it to be a
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: night game for an under, but I think it's fine.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Sixty four degrees. There's gonna be a very very slight
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: wind blowing out, which is basically nothing, so it's gonna
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: be a cool ish day there, so that's good. I
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: think for the under that's fine. So yeah, under clubs
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is my one baseball play here read a tar. Yeah,
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: that's right, that's uh. I was trying to call the
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: segment the reading segments that I do with Jose that
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: but it didn't take. Apparently, Big Red, what's up, Nate?
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: Uh wait, Who's who's Big Red? Again? Big Red? I
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: always think of like Cornell University or something like that,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: or the cinnamon flavored gum. If you don't chew Big Red,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: then fuck you. If you guys get that Talladega Knight's
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: reference back when Will Ferrell was actually in really really
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: hilarious comedies, and that is one of them. Anyway. Yeah,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's anything else I have left to
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: say about that, but yeah, San Francisco Cubs under the
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: total is the way that I'm looking. Oh, we'll look
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: at the market read real quick, just to check it.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: I do think the money is agreeing with this one.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: The total is sitting at seven, a little bit more
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: juice to the over, so you might be able to
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: actually still find an under seven and a half here.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Seventy two percent of tickets on the over, only fifty
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash. So the money seems to
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: be agreeing with the under generally, with the public kind
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: of coming in on the over. I think public sees
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Cubs and goes, oh, I want to go over here.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: The line has actually moved against San Francisco too, down
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: for minus one twenty five to minus one oh five,
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of tickets, seventy three percent of the
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: cash on the Cubs, if you want a little bit
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: of a market read on the side there, The money
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: seems to be agreeing on the Cubs side there. I mean,
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for that that Emonagam might
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: be able to outpitch web in. This one has like
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: more unfamiliarity at least. But the bullpen, I mean, I
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: think it's close the whole way. I think the starting
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is close. It's really hard to predict. I
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: think the bullpens are fairly close as well, So it's
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: pretty difficult to predict that the Cubs have the better offense,
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: though they're one big advantage of the offense is better.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: But again, I told you their offense has been really,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: really bad recently. So oh yeah, that's right. It's Nebraska,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: that's correct, Cornell. I don't know. Maybe back in the
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: old days they have some titles I've forgot. Man, you're
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: talking about college football. You're not gonna like what I
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: have to say about Nebraska. They're playing today, right, so
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about it right now. You're not gonna
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: like this. It's not gonna be a play though. I
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: don't have a play on that game. I'm gonna have
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: one play in college football, and it's probably a game
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: that not many people are really looking at. And again,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: I'm worried that the number is gonna get away from
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: us a little bit in the game that I like,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: but I think it's the best player on the board.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: So that is what I'm gonna do. We do have
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: college football today. I'm gonna try to run through it. Man.
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: We do have some games that are like involving FCS teams.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: Some of them have lines, but I'm not gonna hit those.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm not gonna talk about Elon versus Duke here,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: which is that's Elon Musk versus a duke chest Nain.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I'm not so sure about that. So all right,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: these games are starting. Actually, the first game up is
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: early at five point thirty PM on ESPN five thirty
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Eastern Boise State has to travel to the Eastern time
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: zone here against South Florida Boise. I mean this line.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: The problem with Week one college football is these lines
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: are out months in advance, and then the professional money
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: comes in and just hammers the line. So if you
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: like South Florida plus the points here, you're not getting
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: any value anymore. You would have had to have gotten
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: one of the better numbers. I would have said you
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: wanted to get at least seven seven and a half
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: if you wanted South Florida here. But this line is
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: it's completely gone. It opened Boise State nine and it's
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: all the way down to five and a half. The
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: money did definitely come in on South Florida fifty nine
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Boise sixty two percent of the
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on South Florida. I'm not even quite
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: sure I totally agree with this though, because South Florida
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: this is all based off of projections man, and people
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: basically saying they think South Florida is gonna be better
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: this year. Oh and Boise State will be worse because
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: they don't have Gent anymore. Yeah, we know that they
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: lost Gent, but I think one of the easiest things
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: to replace in college football is a running back. Like
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: running backs are almost plug and play, and I know
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: their running back isn't gonna be as good as genty fine,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: but Boise has a lot of attorney starters, man, which
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: is why I also have up the returning production here.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: South Florida is is good too. They're fourteenth in returning production,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: so this has to do with how much production they
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: got out of these players and out of that what's returning.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: But Boise is actually ninth in the country in returning production.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: So Boise, they're essentially returning everybody except for Gent. They
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: have Max Madsen I think is his name. They're a quarterback.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: He has some cool sounding name like that. He's actually
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: really improved. He's an upper class man now, he's got
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: multiple years of experience, and they have Boise has a
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: lot of continuity. Man. They got Madson there same quarterback.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: South Florida. I believe they also are bringing their quarterback
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: back if I'm not mistaken, which is but he was
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: hurt for a while. I believe so. South Florida's quarterback
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: is Byron Brown. He's been their quarterback for a couple
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: of years. He's an upper classman too. He's very experienced
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: as well. But I believe he missed the last half
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: of last year. He got injured and didn't come back,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. But yeah, So both teams have
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of continuity with their quarterbacks. They have the
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: same coaches, I believe, etc. There's a lot of returning
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: production for both teams. So that's good. But it's good
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: for both teams. The problem I really have for South
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: Florida here, even though you would think, well, Boise having
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: to travel all the way east like this is gonna
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: be a problem for them, Maybe not, because Boise did
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: it last year. They one of their early games was
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: at like Georgia State maybe or Georgia's So I don't know.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: They had one east I forget who it was, but
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: it was. They had some East Coast time zone game
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: earlier in the season last year, and they won it,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: and I believe they covered they want it by double
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: digits at least, so Boise I mean, they've done it before.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: It hasn't been that much of a problem. The problem
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: I really have is again, you don't know how improved
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: South Florida is gonna be. And I still think Boise
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: State is going to be very good this year, Like
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: I think they might make the playoffs again, but they
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: have to run the table in the Mountain West. And
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: this is the thing. I think Boise State is going
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: to have to show up in this game because the
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: thing is they have their sights set on making the
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: playoffs again. Man, So that's the thing. They know they
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: can't lose this game, so they have to show up
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: focused because they know if they lose this game, they're
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: basically gonna be eliminated from the playoffs in Week one
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: if they lose this game. So I think they know this,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: and Boise State is taking this game so seriously that
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: they're running lightning drills in their practices, like basically in
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: what to do in the event of lightning striking. It's
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: completely insane, but that's what they're doing. So that tells
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: me the Boise is actually focused in taking this game seriously.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to join the professional money here.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: The line has gone away from us anyway. But I'm yeah,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: there's no way I'm gonna grab self forward on that game.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: I might even slightly lean against it towards Boise. But Boise,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: of course, they don't need to cover a margin here.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: They just need to win. But again, I mean, based
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: on the fact that both teams are returning a lot
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: of their players, we already know how good Boise is.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: We don't really know how improved South Florida is gonna be.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: And I think the tails of Boise may be dropping
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: off because they don't have genty anymore, are being overstated
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. So, yeah, who's a stud? What Riola? Yeah?
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: I think I dude, Riola is certainly overrated. A Nate
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: is not gonna like what I have to say, but
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's good. I think Curtis is right.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: I have my doubts about Nebraska. They're not gonna be
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: a serious contender in my opinion. We do have Ohio
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: at right. I can tell you that that's on Big
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: ten network at six pm. I can tell you the number,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: really really, the money has come in on Rutgers. Man,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: they're up from ten and a half to fifteen and
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: a half, now eighty three percent to take as ninety
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash coming in on Rutgers. I
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: believe both teams have their starting quarterback coming back here,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: so there's some continuity here. Rutgers. They're actually seventh in
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: returning production, so Rutgers does have a lot of returning
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: production as well. Ohio I don't think has as much.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: They're at fifty fourth. I know, I believe Parker Navarro
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: is Ohio's quarterback, so he is back. Rutgers has what's
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: his name Calliakmanus or something like that, however your pronounce
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: his name. I believe he's back. Is that his name?
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: I don't even fucking know. Yeah him Kalia kaman As. Yeah,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: he's back. So they have their upperclassmen quarterback is back.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: I mean Rutgers there's still the better team over a
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: MAC team, man. I mean, I think that there's a
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: reason why the money is coming into them, even besides
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: the fact that they're in the or conference or whatever. Yeah,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: I mean Rutgers. Though, the problem with Rutgers is that
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: they're not really a high scoring team. Necessarily, so if
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: you're asking them to cover a number like this, that
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit difficult. Ohio is still one
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: of the better ish teams in the MAC at least,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: so you're not gonna find me coming in and playing this,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: especially not when it's gone through a key number of fourteen,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: the two touchdown threshold. But yeah, I mean, I can't
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: really disagree with the Rutgers side though necessarily that is
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: where the money's coming in. I don't have a whole
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: lot else to say about this. I think both coaches
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: are here. I think Rutgers. Who do they have Greg Sheiano?
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: I think right. I think he's been around for a
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: long time. I don't know, I handicapped these games last night,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: but yeah, yeah, they still have him there. Yeah. So anyway, yeah,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: I guess do with that information what you will. East
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: Carolina NC State is going to be where I have
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: the play that I'm gonna give out, so I'll skip that.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State at UCF, we have that game going on today.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: That's a weird one when you see F. Obviously they're
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: in the better conference. I believe they're in the Big twelve.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: Now the money has come in on them they're up
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: from sixteen and a half to twenty and a half
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: now fifty seven percent to take a sixty five percent
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them, So the money likes Central
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Florida here. I believe Central Florida does not have their
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: quarterback returning, but I don't know how much that matters
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: because Central Florida they're more of a rushing style offense.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: They run the ball a lot. They were really really
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: good at running the ball last year, and they kind
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: of just fell short in the Big twelve Man for
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. I think them being in kind of a
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: new conference and having to travel west a lot kind
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: of fucked them up, would be my guess. But Central Florida,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: I think they're actually better than they looked last year.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Although yes, they're losing their quarterback, but again, I don't
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: know that that matters a ton because they run the
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: ball a lot, but they're they're getting their old coach back.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Speaking of Nebraska, Scott Frost, who I believe failed at Nebraska,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: he's returning to Central Florida this year. He was good
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: at Central Florida and they're bringing him back. So I
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: don't know how much the system is going to change,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: how much of his old system is still in place
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: at this point, so there probably will be some growing
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: pains because he's coming back, but I think they're at
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: least used to him in Central Florida, so there might
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: not be as many growing pains there. And speaking of
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: growing pains, Jacksonville State, they lost rich Rod because he's
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: going to West Virginia now, So Jacksonville State lost their coach,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: they lost a lot of their players. Their quarterback is
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: not there anymore. So Jacksonville State, I think they have
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: some of the lowest returning production in all of college football.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: So I think that's part of the reason why the
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: money's coming in against them. Here. Where are they at here?
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: Javille State, come on, where are you? Yeah, they're way down.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: They're one hundred and thirty third out of one hundred
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: and thirty six in returning production. So only Washington State,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: New Mexico in Northern Illinois, and New Mexico got completely
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: cleaned out. Jacksonville State somehow has less returning production than Marshall,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: even though Marshall's entire team quit and their coach quit.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just insane. So yeah, that's part of
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: the reason because you see actually doesn't have a ton
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: of returning production either, one hundred and sixth. But even so,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: I think UCF we could see them here too. Yeah,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: they only four returning start is actually so again you
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: see f complete overhaul as well there. So there will
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: be growing pains on both sides. So it's not a
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: game we want to get involved in, but just you know,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: to tell you what's going on here. The money is
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: coming in on UCF, and I don't really have a
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: reason to disagree with it. I could see them winning
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: this game rather easily, but again, it's a fairly low total,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: and Central Florida is a rushing style attack. I think
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: probably will still be the case under Frost back there.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: So yeah, rich Rod is at West Virginia. But they're
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: gonna have growing pains there. Man, they're gonna be in
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: a transition period. They're transiting themselves right now. We'll see
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: what happens with them over there. Rich Rod has been
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: with a lot of different teams over the last few years. Man,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: it's kind of crazy. We got what else do we
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: have here that's of note here? Just the FBS games,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: probably the ugliest one out of all of them is
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: Wyoming An Akron. You've got Mountain West against Mac. Here
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: the money seems to be coming in on Akron. Wyoming
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: dropped from nine to five and a half, so similar
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: to the Boise State mind movement. The money did come
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: in on Akron, and I'm not sure I get it, man.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: I think Akron was miserable last year. If I'm not mistaken,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: they were bad even for a MAC team. So I
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: don't know what the Akron love is here. But Wyoming
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: wasn't good either last year. I mean, these are two
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: bad teams. Fifty nine percent of tickets, only fifty two
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Wyoming. The money's coming in
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: pretty strongly in the under too, total very low down
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: to forty seven and a half. So if you like
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: the under, I think you probably got to get it
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: at that number and make sure it doesn't drop below
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: what I think is a somewhat key number at forty seven. Man,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: So nobody's gonna want to watch this piece of shit game.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: Maybe this game, Oh man, I don't understand the love
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: for Akron. This game. It's gonna be the ugliest game
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: of the day. Probably Wyoming does. They're twenty eighth in
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: returning production though, so they do a returning production. Akron
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: is down in ninety first, so it seems like Wyoming
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: has more continuity. I didn't even really bother looking into
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: what's going on with these like if these teams have
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think these teams changed their coaches or anything
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: like that, so they have some continuity here. I didn't
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: even look to see if the quarterbacks are coming back
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: or whatever. But both teams were bad last year, and
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll both improve this year again. I really I
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: still don't understand the Acron love here though. It looks
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: like they did lose a lot of attorney production, so
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: this one I don't understand. I'm not sure that I
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: would even lean to Acron. I certainly wouldn't take them
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: at the worst number there. And then we got a
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Minnesota. Buffalo actually was a surprising MAC team last year.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: They weren't that bad. They surprised a lot of people,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: had a nice improvement last year, and they wound up
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: winning a bowl game. So Buffalo had a pretty good
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: season last year. Minnesota, I mean, we know they're a
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: big ten team. This game is gonna be on Fox
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: Sports one. Minnesota looking to kind of continue what they've
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: been doing. I think they had a lot of transfer
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: portal action. They do have ten returning starters. They lost
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: their quarterback, they do have a running back returning and
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: a wide receiver returning. Half of their defenses returning, So
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: some continuity from Minnesota at least as far as how
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: much returney production that equates to. They're actually decent fortieth.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: That's not too bad. Buffalo's at sixty seventh, which isn't
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: that bad either. Buffalo's losing their quarterback though, which was
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: aug Bwana or whatever his name was, but I forget
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: his name. He's not back. He was actually pretty good
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: last year and I think he's gone. So Buffalo is
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: gonna have to deal with a new quarterback here. Both
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna have a new quarterback here. But Minnesota,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not sure they're really known for throwing
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: the football around and Buffalo was, so that might hurt
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: Buffalo a little bit more Minnesota. The money's actually come
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: in on Buffalo though. Minnesota now from eighteen a half
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: to seventeen to have sixty three percent of tickets on them,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the cash coming on Buffalo. This is
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: a really low total of forty down to forty three.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is crazy. So the money did come
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: in on the under too, and this is expected to
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: be a real ugly game as well, But of course
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: we have a total dis low that makes it way
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: more difficult to cover a spread like seventeen and a half.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, what you're expecting Buffalo to does not even
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: score in this game at all. And it's almost like
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: if Buffalo gets to like seventeen points even in this game,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: they'll probably they'll probably cover this number. So I think
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why the money's coming in
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota. Usually when you have a really really low
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: total like that, it's not a good idea to lay
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: a huge up a huge spread on the favorite. So
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: probably that's what's going on. You probably get taxed a
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: little bit to play Minnesota because everybody just kind of knows.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: While they're a big ten team, Buffalo, I think it's
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit under the radar. Even though they did
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: lose their quarterback, it's gonna hurt them a bit. But
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: they were a sneaky play last year and man like
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: they were. Nobody liked to them in their bowl game
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: last year. As far as I could tell, they snuck
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: into the bowl season and they got themselves a win.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: It was a big game for them in the bowl season.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: So Buffalo, they're a program that did better than expected
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: last year and they're improving. Nebraska Cincinnati, this will be
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: your ESPN night game after Boise in South Florida. This
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: will be at nine PM. This is big ten versus
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: Big twelve. Nebraska has dropped through the key number basically
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: from seven to six and a half. But the thing
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: about this is Nebraska's got a lot of the public action,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of tickets, only sixty eight percent of
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: the cash. So the market is indicating on Cincinnati, and
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: I do not disagree with that. I'd rather have the seven. Obviously,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna get the seven anymore. But
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that the line really didn't move
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: that much, even though moving off of a key number
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: seven is fairly significant, but sitting at six and a half,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: it's almost like the odds makers are almost begging you
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: to take Nebraska. And the fact that it's just been
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: sitting at six and a half almost this whole time,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: and the public is pouring it on Nebraska, and the
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: line hasn't moved back up. That's the odds makers taking
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: a stand basically and saying we don't care, we don't
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: respect your money. Public Like, that's basically what the odds
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: makers are telling you if they haven't moved it back
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: to seven. With all the public action coming in, it's
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: a somewhat low total as well. But I'm gonna agree
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: with this. This game, by the way, is a neutral
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: site game, so you got to be aware. I forgot,
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: I forgot to talk about this. Some of these games
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: are not at these teams' home stadium, so you have
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: to be aware of this, which is the case with
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: this game, and that might be the only game that
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: we have today. There are gonna be some this week
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: where that's the case. I think that's the only one today.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: But this game is at Arrowhead Stadium, the Kansas City
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: Chiefs Stadium. Let me just make sure, but I think
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: that's the only one today. Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: the only one that's actually know. South Florida is actually
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: playing in Raymond James, which I don't think is that
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: that's not actually their home stadium now, is it. I
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: don't think so. They're playing in Tampa, South Florida is
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: in Tampa, but I don't think they usually play in
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers stadium. Even correct me if I'm wrong about that.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong about that, So that didn't stand out
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: to me, though, I mean, it's certainly not a neutral
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: site game. It's still basically a home game for South Florida.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: I think they probably at least play some of their
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: home games there. This is in Kansas City, so it
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: is home semi home game. I will call it for Nebraska.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: The Nebraska fans will show up for this game. I
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: agree with you on that. I'm just not sure Nebraska
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: is that good man? We got so? Yes, you pointed
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: out Riola is returning Cincinnati, they have I believe decent
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: returning production here. They have ten returning starters, including soars By,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: their quarterback, although his targets aren't returning, but more than
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: half of their defense is returning, and soars Bey is
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: a pretty solid quarterback for them, so he's returning, and
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: Nebraska only is nine including Riola, but none of his
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: targets are coming back either. Ryola, by the way, one
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: thing that really pisses me off about him is he
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: just like intentionally tries to look like Patrick Mahomes and
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: he's never gonna be Patrick Mahomes. And Nebraska's returning four
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: of their defensive starter. So one thing that also worries
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: me here is you could see right here, Nebraska is
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: not returning any of their like front seven here. It's
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: all second their secondary is returning and their entire line
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: and linebacker corps gone. That doesn't seem like it's great
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: for Nebraska to me. Man, that's almost like a not
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: quite a cluster injury situation, but it's like a cluster
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: revamping type of situation. I'm not sure that's a good thing. Man.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: So again, I like Cincinnati in this game. I would
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: take the points. I think the line is too high.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying they're definitely gonna win, out right. I
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: think they definitely have a chance to win, out right.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: I'm not sold on Nebraska. I know Nebraska had a
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: surprising season last year. They got to a bowl. They
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: won a bowl for the first time in quite a
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: while against BC. I think it was against BC, right,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: I think it was in the pin Stripe Bowl. I
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: think they beat BC in Boston. I no Pinstripe Bowl
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: in New York. What am I saying Pinstripe Bowl in
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: New York. It wasn't the Fenway with Sabbi Bowl. But yeah,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: I think they beat BC in New York. I think
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: it's what Nebraska did in that game. But again I'm
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: still not sold on Nebraska. Man, and plus Nebraska, say
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: what you will about what they did last year, they
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: were not. They were not a team that scored that
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: many points last year. So again, asking them to cover
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: a number like this kind of crazy. But of course,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: as you said, remember this is not actually a home
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: game for Cincinnati. If it was, this line would not
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: be as high as it is. Yeah, I'm gonna lean
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: to Cincinnati, though I agree with the market read on
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: that one. And then we do have Miami, Ohio and
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin to finish this off. Man. Actually, this video is
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: not too long for me today. Wisconsin, I mean, they're
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: in the middle of a revamp. Man, Wisconsin. I believe
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be the third year under the who's
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: their coach again? I forget it's Luke Fickele I think
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: as their coach, right Fickle, He's very fickle. I think
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: that's who they have. But he's in his third year,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: so a lot of times the third year, when you
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: have a coach he's kind of like implemented his system
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: now and he's recruited his guys, so that system tends
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: to be a little bit better. Wisconsin had a period
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: where they had a coach that came in there and
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: tried to change Wisconsin's identity and it failed. I mean,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: how can you change an identity of a team that's
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: always been We're gonna pound the ball at you. We're
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: gonna ground and pound. We're always gonna have really good
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: running backs, We're gonna have some solid quarterback play behind that.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be a run first offense, and we're gonna
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: punish you physically. We're gonna play physical defense. That's always
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: been Wisconsin, and that's been why they've been a good
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: football program. That coach that they had before that, I
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: forget who it was, went completely away from that and
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: was like, Nah, we're gonna go with air raid even
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: though we don't even have the personnel for it. And
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: then they had to try to bring in air raid
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: players and it's like, that's not gonna fucking work at
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin man, and it did not, and it has set
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: their program spiraling. But now I think they're actually trying
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: to get back to the more physical Wisconsin style of play.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be that good this year,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: but I do think maybe they'll show up. I mean
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: home opener. You usually don't want to fade a team
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: in their home opener, man, I will point that out.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: It's very rare that I'll fade a team in their
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: home opener. Sometimes maybe there'll be a reason for it.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: In this case, I don't think so. I Wisconsin's up
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: from seventeen to seventeen and a half here. Although the
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: public is on them seventy seven percent to take, it's
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: only sixty eight percent of the cash. The total is
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: very low at forty one, but it's expected in Miami,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Ohio is probably just not gonna score in this game. Wisconsin. Yes,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: I know, with a low total, it's gonna be really
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: difficult for them to cover spread like this, and the
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: money's coming in against them. So maybe if you want
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: to go something Wisconsin related in this game, and that
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: you would, you should go Miami Ohio to go under
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: their team total. I believe Miami has lost basically everybody.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: Let me see Miami. I know they had Blaine Gabbert's
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: brother was their quarterback for a long time. Forget what
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: his name was. What's going on here there? It is?
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: That's Miami Ohio is one hundred and twenty eight in
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: returning production, so they have almost no returning production. They've
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: lost their quarterback again. Miami Ohio. They had a really
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: good season in the MAC last year. I think they
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: overperformed a bit, and now it's looking like they're maybe
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: in a bit of a rebuild mode. They're gonna have
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: a new quarterback. They're gonna be growing pains there Wisconsin.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not even sure if Wisconsin's returning their quarterback, to
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: be honest. So you know, Wisconsin at least is hitting that.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: They don't either, they don't have their quarterback either, but
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: you know they're hitting the transfer portal. They do actually
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: have five returning defensive starters at least, so wikon it's
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: in a little bit more continuity than Miami Ohio has.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: And with Wisconsin bringing back a lot of their defense again,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: I think probably the way to play that game is
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: Miami Ohio to go under their team total. I could
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: really see Miami Ohio getting almost blanked in this game.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: You remember I did say that about Fresno last week.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: If Fresno only scored seven against Kansas, Kansas improving their
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: defense a bit, Man Fresno's they're just atrocious offensively. They
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: Fresno is a new quarterback with Warner's son, their Kurt
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: Warner's son, and a new coach there as well. I think,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: so they got growing bands. Miami Ohio is gonna have
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: more growing bands. I think that Wisconsin does Wisconsin with
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: a third year coach. I mean, yeah, again, I think
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin wins this game fairly easily. But again I think
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: Miami Ohio under the team total is probably the way
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: to go in that one. And then we'll go to
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: my best bet, which you might know what maybe I
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what it is. NC State minus fourteen is
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be the play here, manb you gotta make sure
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: you can get the number on this because it's gone
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: up a little bit and you want to not have
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: to take the worst of a key number here. Man,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: it open a twelve and a half. I know, I
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: didn't really see it back then. It's up to fourteen.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: I think if you get fourteen or anything below that,
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: it's still worth firing on NC State here man. I mean, thirteen,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half aren't exactly key numbers. Fourteen obviously
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: is you want to get on the right side of
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: the two touchdown threshold if you can, But at least
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: if you get exactly fourteen, a two touchdown win will push.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: But this is a weird, unique situational spot, man, Which
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: is what I'll explain. Which is why I like NC
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: State sixty nine percent to take a seventy six percent
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on an NC State. I
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: think the actual professional money is indeed coming in on them.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: We have a fairly high total that's gone up to
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: sixty one and a half. So the fact that it's
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: a fairly high total is a good indicator that we
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: might be able to cover a larger spread more easily. Here.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get some points. The main reason why I
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: like this is because this is a really, really rare scenario.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: This is, believe it or not, this is revenge for
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: NC State from the last game that they played last season.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: NC State lost to East Carolina in their bowl game
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: last year. So this is why I'm doing this. I
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: think that it's gonna actually matter. I mean, revenge doesn't
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: matter a whole lot in football. But I think NC
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: State NC State's gonna be pissed. Man. I think they
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: just thought it was gonna be an easy time against Oh,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: East Carolina. They suck East Carolina. Yes, I mean it's
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: still gonna be the case here that they're an in
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: state little brother so East Carolina. They're still gonna get
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: up to play a North Carolina team. We know this.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: They're gonna get up. It's gonna be a big game
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: for them. Yes, but in this case, NC State is
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: the way better team, and I think they're gonna be
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: pissed off because East Carolina handed them a losing season
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: last year. And remember going into that bowl, NC State
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: had that big win over North Carolina. That was a
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: big rivalry game for them. I'm just not sure they
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: really cared about being in the go Bowling Military Bowl.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, NC State they're in a shitty bowl like
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: this every single year, so it's like, what does it matter?
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: Even though NC State actually hasn't won a ball since
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, although they had a couple of years one
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: year then he'd get to a bowl in one year
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: that was like a it was the COVID bullshit and
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: I think twenty twenty one where their Bowl got canceled,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: probably because everybody was a pussy. Oh we have COVID.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: Even though we're young, you know, physically capable men, We're
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: gonna die from this pussy virus. Yeah, NC State, But yeah,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: I think this is gonna piss them off. Man. They
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: should have won this game. They were a seven and
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite in this game. Last year, they
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: were winning the game. It was a close game, they
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: were losing the game early in NC State. I think
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: we realized, oh shit, we got punched in the mouth.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: And they came back and tried to win this game,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: and they actually took the lead in the fourth quarter
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: and then lost on the very at the very end
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: on a ridiculous eighty six yard run. So I think
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: NC State is gonna be pissed here. Man. I think
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: they're gonna want revenge for that reason, because they probably
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: remember that that was the last time they took the field.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: And there's a decent amount of returning production here for
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: NC State that's gonna remember that and probably want the
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: revenge here East Carolina, their returning production is pretty bad,
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: by the way, at one hundred and seventh although their
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: quarterback is coming back, which I'll talk about in a second.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: NC State is thirty sixth in returning production, so NC
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: State is a big continuity edge here returning production edge
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: as well. They have the same coach that they've had
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: for a while now as well. Both coaches and think
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: have been around for a while. But NC State better program,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: probably the better coach NC State if we look at
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: them here, they have ten returning starters, including CJ. Bailey,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: their quarterback, who's an improving quarterback. I'm gonna talk about
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: the quarterback match up in a second. He's got one
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: of his wide receivers coming back. They have Hollywood Smothers
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: they're running back coming back. Great name there, and they
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: only returned four defensive players, with the returning at least
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: kind of the majority of their offense. But as far
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: as the quarterbacks, both quarterbacks are back for these teams.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: And the thing about this is if you look at
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: what happened in that quarterback matchup in the bowl game
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: last year, we can look at it now. We will
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: just look at their rosters. East Carolina's quarterback is Catton Houser.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: He's a senior now this year. He was their quarterback
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: last year. But look at his numbers last year, and man,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: I mean these are not very impressive. Eighteen touchdowns, eleven
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: interceptions for college that's not very good. And that was
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: as a junior with two years under his belt, and
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: he only had a forty five point one QBR, So
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: he wasn't really that good of a quarterback. And I
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: think it was just a motivational thing where he wanted
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: winning the game and he had more experience. Remember, because
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: remember what I'm gonna talk well, don't remember what I'm
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about. His CJ. Bailey was actually a freshman quarterback,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: so he was playing in his first bowl, so maybe
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: that kind of affected him a little bit too. Whereas Houser,
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: I think it was at least, you know, a more
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: experienced quarterback at that point. But the thing is he's
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: more experienced, but he's not the better quarterback. If you
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: look at Bailey, Bailey's actually a pretty solid quarterback. And
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: if you look at his numbers, even his numbers last
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: season as a freshman, he was better and now a
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: year under his belt, so he should be even better.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: He had a sixty QBR and I think he had
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: more yards than Houser as well, and seventeen to ten
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: touchdown interception ratio, which I know isn't good, but for
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: a freshman, I think you can kind of forgive that
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit. He is the better quarterback. Man. He
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: has a lot of room to improve here where his
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: Houser is in his last year, and he really he
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: just is what he is at this point. So Bailey
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: has a much higher ceiling as well. So I like it, man,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: I think Bailey is the better quarterback. Here. We got
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: more continuity, we got a revenge angle here, we got
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: the better team lay the points with NC State. Man,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: So that's gonna be that one, and that's gonna do it.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: Hopefully that was some good information. Hopefully you guys like
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: this today. We got two plays today, Man, I want
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: to go two for two here. Best bets, baby, at
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: the end of the show, I'll give you the graphic
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: at least to appease you. Curtis, I think was the
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: one who said do it at the end. The best
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: bets one more time. You can go back and see
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: the analysis Cubs and Giants in baseball under the total
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: of seven or if you can get seven and a half,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: about up to minus one twenty. I think that's all
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: right as well, or maybe even better. And college football,
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: I know we're owning one in college football so far.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: The professional guys seem to be aligning with me on
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: that Kansas State side. I think we kind of got screwed.
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: Kansas State dominated that game statistically. Man, I'm pissed about it.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: Let's get a win. I had a good college football
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: season last year. It's gonna win with this one. Don't
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: be afraid to lay some of these double digit numbers,
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: especially early in college football too, because sometimes you do
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: get mismatches. NC State minus the fourteen. That's what we'll do.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: Oh my way is better. Oh, thank you sir, Thank
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: you guys for hanging out. Curtis Nate. Who else has
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: been in the chat? Is it just you two guys? Andrew?
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: Sorry I forgot Andrew. Oh man, I apologize. Yeah, Curtis, Nate, Andrew,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: thanks guys for hanging out. Learn to Toad on Twitter
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: for me and learned it Toad on Instagram. Better off
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: dead obviously, like subscribe, Let's get me more subscribers on
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: YouTube here. I'm on the audio stuff as well, Spotify
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: and Apple, so give me a good review. Over there.
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: Let's boost it up, man, Let's get more listeners. Hopefully
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: people enjoy this. It would be better if I was winning.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: I mean when I first started doing the show, I
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: was really hot at the end of twenty twenty three
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: on the tail end of a really good year, and
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: then last year I did not have a good year.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: Though I was really good in college football last season,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: I had a horrific college basketball season this past year.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: I apologize for that, but I want to get some
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: more wins man, prove that I know what I'm doing.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: After almost nineteen years of doing this, maybe I'll get
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: back to actually putting money on it again. Now that
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: football is back. Let's get it done. And I've covered
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: in youke my ukulele channel on YouTube. You can check
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: that out as well Patreon, dot com, slash learned to Toad,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: and there's some bonus yuke content available there. That's gonna
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: do it. Happy Thursday, Happy actual first week of college football.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: I will be back, obviously, I'll be back tomorrow with
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: the normal morning show because we're gonna have baseball to
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: talk about for the most part tomorrow, and then probably
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: tomorrow night very late. I'm going to do well actually
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: tomorrow morning. We have more college football to talk about too.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: There are few college football games on the Friday Nights
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: slate as well. I don't know if I'm gonna have
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: a play and any of them. It's a short college
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: football card, but we always get a little bit of Seemingly,
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: we always get a few college football Friday games. College
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: football is all the time now, though usually once you
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: get past the first week, the early weeks usually don't
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: have that like midweek action that you get with the MAC.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: The action starts like later in the season. Once MAC
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: conference play starts, then you get like Tuesday Wednesday games
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: and everything gets really crazy. But my weekly, my official
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: weekly college football show is almost always Friday nights. That's
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: what I'm planning on doing again. It's still a big
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: Saturday slate where most of the games are. I have
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: at least one play that I'm gonna give up for
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: the Saturday card. I'll probably wind up with more than
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: that because I haven't really broken it down yet. I've
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: got I gave it out on the show already, which
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: was Texas plus the points, although there's no way you
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: can get the plus three anymore on Texas. I do
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: like Texas. I mean, if you can still get a
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: plus two two and a half out there, I would
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: probably still say take the shot on Texas. Analyze it
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: when I do the Week one show. That's the biggest
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: game of the Week two basically, but I do like
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: Texas in that game, probably will have one or two
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: other plays at least going on there. That's gonna do
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: it for now, man, So be on the lookout for that.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: It'll be late because again I'm going to nine inch
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: Nails tomorrow. I've had these tickets for a while, man,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: like I can't really spend money on tickets anymore unfortunately,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: while I'm a broke man basically. But yeah, so that's
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: that should be fun. And I've got Cohen and Cambria
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: with taking back Sunday on Saturday as well, so I'm
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be dead after those two days. But be on
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: the lookout. I'll probably do like one am late night
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: Friday night into Saturday morning will probably be when the
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: College Football Show will be live. That'll do it for now.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: Have a good one everyone, peace,